The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 38: Capitals at Panthers, April 6th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals, fresh off their 2-1 trick shot victory over the New York Islanders on Thursday night, take their brand new Southeast Division lead on the road for a test drive.  Perhaps fittingly, they do so with a visit to Sunrise, Florida, and a meeting with the Florida Panthers, the defending Southeast Division champions.

Those heady days of fighting for a championship, even if was only of the divisional variety, must seem long ago to fans of the Panthers.  This year, injuries decimated the club.  They will come into this game with seven players on injured reserve, at least five of them likely to miss the rest of the regular season.  But the law of averages, so to speak, caught up with the Panthers, too.  Last year, Florida was involved in 35 one-goal decisions in which they earned points.  Only one club – Vancouver – had more such games (36).  That was not even the thing that set the Panthers apart.  Florida earned points in 18 one-goal losses, a product of going 7-18 in extra-time games, 6-11 of that coming in the Gimmick. 

This year, Florida is a 5-5-6 in one-goal games, the second worst winning percentage in the league.  They are just 4-6 in extra-time games. But recently it has been like old times for the Panthers.  Florida’s last three games ended in three one-goal, extra-time wins, two of them in the Gimmick.  It’s the Florida way, it seems.

The recent success represents a reversal of fortune for the Panthers in the month since they last met the Capitals.  Since they dropped a 7-1 decision in Washington on March 7^th, Florida is 5-7-1.  The record is a bit of an improvement from where the Panthers were after that 7-1 drubbing (7-12-5), but last in the East they were on that night, and last in the East is where they remain coming into this game.

Even with Florida’s recent win-loss success, there have been problems.  In two of the three wins in this streak the Panthers surrendered two-goal leads and hung on through an overtime period before winning in the trick shot phase.

One thing the Panthers have done right, though, is score on the power play.  Of the nine goals scored by the Panthers in their 3-0-0 run, five of them have been scored with a man-advantage.  The five power play goals have come from five different players, too.  Shawn Matthias, Jonathan Huberdeau, Tomas Fleischmann, Tomas Kopecky, and Greg Rallo were the power play goal-scorers.

Matthias has had an especially productive run for the Panthers lately.  He accounts for four of the five goals scored by the Panthers over their last three games (4-0-0).  It is part of a run in which he has 11 goals over his last 17 games, a 50-plus goal pace over 82 games.  His 14 goals on the season already represents a personal best over his six-year career, topping his 10 goals recorded last season.

Jonathan Huberdeau also has four points over the Panthers’ last three games (1-3-4).  It is part of a season in which he leads all rookies in goals (13) and total points (25).  He is 1-7-8 over his past nine games and one of the few bright spots in a dismal season for the Panthers.

Here is how the teams compare overall over the season…

1.  Florida is the worst team in the league at 5-on-5.  The 54 goals they have scored at 5-on-5 are the fewest in the league except for the New Jersey Devils (50).  The 86 goals they have allowed at 5-on-5 are the most allowed in the league except for the Calgary Flames (97).

2.  It has not been any better for the Panthers on the power play, at least when they are defending against that of their opponent.  Only Buffalo (27) has allowed more goals at 4-on-5 than Florida (25).

3.  As you might expect, with those records of goals allowed no team in the league has more losses by three or more goals than do the Panthers.  They are tied with Carolina with 12 apiece.  On the bright side, they have only one such loss in their last nine games.

4.  The NHL is a front-runner’s league.  Score first, or take a lead into the first intermission, and chance are you will win.  Florida does neither well.  Only three teams have scored first in a game fewer times than the Panthers (15 in 37 games), and only seven teams have led games at the first intermission in games fewer times than Florida (10 times in 37 games).  The problem?  No team has allowed more first period goals than the Panthers (43).

5.  Overtime has not provided any respite for the Panthers, either.  No team has more losses in overtime than Florida (five), although it has been a while since Florida lost in the five-minute session – a 3-2 loss to Winnipeg on March 8^th.

1. The Caps are 8-3-1 in their last dozen games and have not lost consecutive games in any fashion over that span.  That record includes a 6-2-1 record on the road.

2.  Since the last time these clubs met, back on March 7^th and the Caps went 2-for-3 on the power play, the Caps’ power play has remained efficient, just not quite as much as before that meeting.  Over 15 games since they beat Florida, 7-1, on March 7^th Washington is 11-for-52 (21.2 percent) on the power play.

3.  On the other side of the ledger, only Buffalo has allowed more power play goals on the road (33) than the Caps (31).

4.  Only three teams have lost more one-goal games in regulation than the Caps (seven) this season.  Remember that inability to get to the bonus round if the Caps somehow fall out of the playoffs.

5.  No team in the league has been outshot in games more often than the Caps.  Washington has been outshot 28 times in 37 games so far and has a record of 12-14-2 in those games.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Florida: Jacob Markstrom

Since Jose Theodore went down to a leg injury on March 2^nd, Jacob Markstrom has assumed the role of number one goaltender.  And if practice makes perfect, then Markstrom can count on many shutouts in the future, because he has faced more rubber than a pit crew chief at Daytona over his last seven appearances.  In those appearances Markstrom has faced more than 35 shots per 60 minutes.  The work seems to have brought out the best in Markstrom.  He has a 5-2-0 win-loss record in those games, with a 1.96 goals-against average and a .944 save percentage to go with it.  It is a far cry from the two goals on two shots performance in 3:10 of ice time in the 7-1 loss to the Caps on March 7^th.  He is, however, 0-2-0, 3.84, .879 in two career appearances against Washington.

Washington: John Carlson

Which Capital defenseman ranks in the top-30 among defensemen in goals?  And assists?  And points?  Hint: it’s not Mike Green.  While Green has received attention for his four-game goal scoring streak (including the only Caps power play goal from a defenseman this season), it is John Carlson who occupies each of those rankings for the Caps.  Carlson has points in six of his last eight games (1-5-6), and he leads the team’s defensemen in power play assists this season (five).  What he does not have is a power play point in 16 career games against Florida (he is 2-8-10 in those games overall).  Green has been hot, but Carlson has been right behind him lately.  Against Florida, he could shine.

Keys:

1.  Don’t crane your necks.  We are just about at that time of the year and that position in the standings where teams will be sneaking peeks up at the scoreboard to see how those close behind or just ahead in the standings might be doing.  Avoid that temptation.  Florida is still an NHL team, and they are doing better of late.  Focus on the ice.

2.  Lead from in front.  The Caps are 3-0-0 against the Panthers this season, outscoring them by an 18-6 margin.  A common thread in those games is that the Caps scored first.  And Florida has lost 20 games in 22 instances in which they were scored on first (2-16-4).

3.  Attention to detail.  Against a team that gives up goals in bunches like the Panthers, it might be tempting to try to score them that way.  That is not a recipe for getting any, especially against a goalie having played well of late.  And, it could lead to breakdowns at the other end as the Caps try to goose their offense at the other end.

 In the end…

This is an easier part of the schedule coming up for the Caps -- four games in five against Southeast Division teams -- only if they treat it as something hard.  Otherwise, they are more likely to play to the level of their opponent and let standings points bleed away.  Take care of business, and this will be one in the win column.

Capitals 4 – Panthers 1

A TWO-point night -- Game 37: Capitals 2 - Islanders 1 (OT/Gimmick)

The Washington Capitals are the Southeast Division leader.

Thanks to the Captain and the Kid, for the first time this season the Capitals sit atop their division and occupy a playoff spot, a product of their 2-1 trick shot win over the New York Islanders on Thursday night.  Fittingly, it came down to the puck on the Captain’s stick in the bonus round.  Alex Ovechkin skated in slowly, deked Islander goalie Evgeni Nabokov, and flipped a backhand over his right pad for the only tally of the freestyle competition.  Before that, it was the Kid -- Caps goalie Braden Holtby -- making it possible for the freestyle competition, stopping 35 of 36 shots in the hockey portion of the game, then turning away all three Islander attempts in the Gimmick to seal the extra standings point for Washington.

The extra session was made necessary by a close-fought 65 minutes in the hockey portion of the evening.  Mike Green got the only goal for the Caps on a broken play late in the first period.  Nicklas Backstrom started the play by slipping free of Islander defenseman Travis Hamonic in the faceoff circle to the right of Nabokov.  Backstrom tried to slip the puck to Marcus Johansson at the edge of the circle, but the pass was too much in Johansson’s skates for him to control it.  The puck slipped through to Casey Cizikas for the visitors, but he couldn’t control the puck, either.  The biscuit slid all the way out to Green jumping in from the blue line.  The defenseman took a couple of strides in and wristed an off-pace shot that fooled Nabokov, and the Caps had a lead just 13 seconds before the first intermission.

The Caps almost made the lone goal stand up, but the Isles scored late in regulation on a defensive zone turnover.  John Carlson could not handle a bouncing puck coming off the side boards and lost it to Josh Bailey at the Caps’ blue line.  Bailey skated the puck around the Caps’ net with Carlson trailing him, and as he popped out from behind the net he found Frans Nielsen in the high slot.  Nielsen redirected the pass to the left wing circle where Kyle Okposo was waiting, and Okposo one-timed the puck into the back of the Capitals’ net with just 4:59 left in regulation to tie the game.  Still, the Kid did his part in goal to get the Caps that far – and further through the five-minute overtime – and it was up to the Captain to clinch it.

Other stuff…

-- By night’s end the Caps were playoff-eligible for the first time this season.  They are tied in points with the Winnipeg Jets for the Southeast Division lead but hold two games in hand on the Jets.

-- The win put the Caps over .500 at home (9-8-0) and left them 16-9-1 overall since their 2-8-1 start.

-- Mike Green’s goal makes goals in four straight games.  He is 5-1-6 in that span.  You might remember that Green holds the all-time record for goals in consecutive games by a defenseman (eight), set in February 2009.

-- Braden Holtby’s 35-save effort broke a four-game streak in which he allowed three of more goals.  The 35 saves he made was topped only by a 38-save performance in 2-1 loss to the New York Rangers on February 17^th.

-- The Caps have done a good job at avoiding shorthanded situations.  They faced only two against New York, making it only 16 faced over the last six games.  On the other hand, this was only the second time in those six games that the Caps did not allow a power play goal (11-for-16, 68.8 percent penalty killing).

-- Martin Erat passed his first test with the Caps quietly.  He recorded no shot attempts in 14:43 of ice time, but he did have three hits and finished “even” in 17 shifts.

-- Another day, another Nicklas Backstrom helper.  His assist on the Green goal makes 12 assists in his last 12 games. His 30 assists for the season is now tied for third in the league, and he has climbed into a tie for 16^th in total scoring.  He has the fewest goals (six) of the top 50 point getters in the league.

-- Eric Fehr returned to limited duty.  Fehr skated only ten shifts – 7:22 in ice time, lowest on the team – and had only a missed shot on his score sheet.

-- Mike Ribeiro did not record a point, his fourth consecutive game in which he was held without one.  It is his longest streak of games without a point this season.  He is 2-5-7 over his last 15 games.

-- You would think that with Mathieu Perreault centering Joel Ward and Martin Erat, that the wingers would get opportunities to get shots on net.  Not only did Erat not record a shot on goal, but neither did Ward.  On the other hand, Perrault had four shots on goal in 17 minutes (tied for team lead in shots on goal), although by the end of the game Erat was skating on a line with Mike Ribeiro, Matt Hendricks replacing him on the Perrault line.

-- It might have been a bit of an accidental assist, but they all count, and the assist recorded by Marcus Johansson made it three games in a row with points. In his last 11 games Johansson is 4-9-13, plus-8.

-- Matt Hendricks is now (gasp!) 1-for-3 on trick shots.  Meanwhile, Alex Ovechkin seems dialed in.  He is 3-for-3.

In the end, the Caps are now the Southeast Division leader and take on the role of the hunted instead of the hunter.  And even though the schedule provides a bit of a break – four of the next five games are against Southeast Division teams that even by divisional standards are struggling (Florida, Carolina, and twice with Tampa Bay) – it is no time to be happy.  Just determined, as their 16-9-1 record over their last 26 games reflects.

Still, it does look nice…

Washington Capitals: The Mystery of Filip Forsberg

When the 11^th pick of the 2012 NHL Entry Draft came around, the Washington Capitals were faced with a choice.  Two highly skilled Europeans were on the board.  Russian Mikhail Grigorenko, a big forward playing for the Quebec Remparts of the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League, was (because of his team affiliation) ranked third among North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting.

Also on the board was Filip Forsberg of Sweden, a 6’2, 180, forward called by the NHL director of European Scouting, “a leader who shows by example…[comparable] to Corey Perry a little bit.”

However, both had their issues.  With Grigorenko it was a disappointing playoff for Quebec in which the Remparts blew a 3-0 lead in games against the Halifax Mooseheads.  Grigorenko finished the post season 3-7-10 in 11 games overall. It caused his stock to drop from being considered almost on a par with eventual first overall draft pick Nail Yakupov to dropping through the teens on some prognosticators’ amateur rankings.

For Forsberg it might have been level of competition.  As a 17-year old he played in ten games for Leksands IF, then played the 2011-2012 season there.  But Leksands was a member of HockeyAllsvenskan, the second tier league in Sweden below Elitserien.  It did not, however, prevent him from being ranked as the top European forward in the NHL Central Scouting final rankings in 2012.

Both players had their plusses, and both had their question marks.  When it came time for the Capitals to make a choice, whether they ever considered Grigorenko, they decided upon Forsberg.  “Unanimous,” in fact. 

  

But this is where things get a bit murky.  In a sense, Forsberg fell into the Capitals’ lap.  Washington was very deliberate when their number came up on the draft board, finally making the pick after some gentle prodding from the Commissioner.  

Capitals General Manager George McPhee alluded to the delay after the selection:

“We didn’t expect Forsberg to be there at all.  In most mock drafts that we had done and where our scouts had him was way up high. Sometimes that happens, a good player falls because everybody’s sort of zoned in on a certain guy and people were going after defensemen and drafted a lot of good defensemen. So we focused on mostly defensemen. So when we got there, we thought, ‘Geez, we’ve got to switch gears here a little bit. This guy’s a really good player. Let’s take him.’”

The Caps were not the only team high on Forsberg.  TSN analyst Craig Button, who ranked Forsberg third in his amateur rankings, said of him that…

“Filip is a blend of high end skill and indomitable will. Skill that allows him to produce offensively and a will that makes it very challenging for opponents to stop him. He's a very strong skater with power in his stride and combined with speed, he's capable of opening up ice for himself and backing up defenders. Possessing very good agility, he uses this to maneuver in the tight areas around the net and make himself dangerous. His shot is hard and accurate and he can score from 35-40 feet. His release is outstanding which doesn't allow goalies to get an accurate read on it. He can shoot off the pass as well as being able to shoot in stride. He recognizes opportunities and he has a hunger to score. He's not one-dimensional though and is capable of making plays and creating offensive chances with his passing. He gets involved in the physical game and while he may not be punishing, he's assertive in establishing his presence and gaining valuable space for himself. With a playmaking center, he could be a prolific scorer in the NHL.”

Fast forward almost ten months.  Filip Forsberg, that player with the indomitable will who could be a prolific scorer in the NHL, the one the Caps were not expecting to fall to them, the player that the Capitals “unanimously” agreed should be taken with the 11^th overall pick in the draft, was traded for Martin Erat -- a 31-year old player in his 11^th season who has never recorded 25 goals and has never recorded 60 points – and a prospect, Michael Latta.

If you subscribe to the notion that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, then swapping out a prospect with skill but an unknown future for a veteran with a body of consistent work can make sense.  But we have this question scratching away at our brain… “Did something happen in the last ten months that caused the Capitals to sour on Forsberg?”  Or was it something else?

This season, Forsberg once more played for Leksands in HockeyAllsvenskan and almost doubled his production from the 2011-2012 season (15-18-33 in 38 games compared to 8-9-17 in 43 games in 2011-2012).  He was 3-2-5 in six games in the World Junior Championships (U-20) and was 6-7-13 in 14 total games of international competition this season, both records representing improvement over his production in the previous season. 

It is tempting to make something out of this notion that Forsberg was playing in Sweden’s second tier league, but this has the hint of backfilling to serve a narrative.  In skating with Leskands this season, Forsberg was still young (he will not turn 19 until mid-August).  But perhaps he suffers in comparison to a fellow Swede who, when he was 18, skated with Brynäs IF in the Elitserien, the Swedish Elite League and the highest level of competition in that country.  Nicklas Backstrom skated 46 games with Brynäs IF in 2005-2006, was then drafted by the Capitals, then spent the next season in Sweden before joining the Caps for the 2007-2008 season as a 19 year old (he turned 20 in November 2007).

It is entirely possible, if not likely, that Forsberg was going to spend another year in Sweden testing his mettle in the Elitserien before coming to North America. That would have made two post-draft seasons in Sweden compared to the one that Backstrom served.  If that was the plan, perhaps the Capitals were not prepared to wait another season for Forsberg.  Perhaps it served as a signal to the Caps that his development arc was too shallow.  Perhaps ten months after the draft they had buyer’s remorse. 

We are never going to have a definitive answer as to why the Caps felt an 11^th-overall pick became expendable ten months after the fact.  There are just so many questions that can be asked for which no answers are forthcoming.  But we keep coming back to that scene in Pittsburgh last June when the Caps were huddled in discussions at their table when their number came up.  We keep coming back to that moment when the Commissioner reminded the Caps that they were on the clock. Were the Caps – a team that was “focused on mostly defensemen” – taken off guard when eight defensemen went in the first ten picks, and a skill forward popped up on their screen?  It is easy to make too much of an extemporaneous quote after the draft, but the statement, “Geez, we’ve got to switch gears here a little bit. This guy’s a really good player. Let’s take him,” sounds more than a bit as if the Caps were not entiely prepared for this possibility or eventuality.

And it begs the question, given the swiftness with which Forsberg was hailed as a future core player when drafted to his being dealt for a good, if not extraordinary player, was this as thoughtful a pick as one might expect, given the stakes?  The clumsiness with which it was executed in real time suggests an “oops” component to it.  And over the next ten months, perhaps the Caps came to regret it, for whatever reason.  Whatever destiny awaits Martin Erat or Michael Latta as members of the Washington Capitals, there are some of us who are going to wonder about the mystery of Filip Forsberg’s fall out of favor over the last ten months and what it says about the process that led to his selection in the first place.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 37: Islanders at Capitals, April 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The new (sort of) Washington Capitals return home tonight, fresh off a 2-0-1 road trip, poised to make their final assault on the summit of the Southeast Division.  By night’s end – if the Capitals win and Winnipeg loses in Montreal in regulation time – Washington will sit atop the Southeast Division for the first time this season.

But first things first.  The Islanders return to Washington just nine days after beating the Capitals at Verizon Center, 3-2, on March 26^th.  Since then, New York is 3-1-0 and are poised themselves to jump into a playoff spot.  If they should avoid a loss in regulation time tonight, they would do no worse than leap-frog the idle New York Rangers into eighth place in the Eastern Conference.

In their last four games, the Islanders outscored their opponents by an 11-8, in addition to their 3-1-0 record.  Their power play, among the best in the league so far this season (21.7 percent), has slipped a bit, going 2-for-12 (16.7 percent) in those games.  The penalty kill has been effective, if only because it has not been used.  The Islander faced only six shorthanded situations over those four games, killing off four of them (66.7 percent).

As you might expect, John Tavares – the league’s second leading goal scorer – is tied for the team lead in goals over the last four games with three.  What you might not expect is that Colin McDonald is the player with whom Tavares is tied in goals.  McDonald has almost doubled his goal output over these four games, jumping from four to seven goals on the season.  He has only eight goals in his 41-game NHL career, so one could say that at least for the moment, McDonald is hot.

It probably is not all that surprising, either, that Mark Streit is the overall point leader for the Isles in the last four games and all of those points coming on assists. He is tied for 16^th among all defensemen in assists with 15.  Less fortunately, he is tied for 269^th of 272 defensemen this season in plus-minus with his minus-15 mark.

Here is how the teams compare in their numbers overall…

1.  Odd fact in the Islanders 3-1-0 run since last facing Washington.  When they scored in the third period, they won.  When they didn’t, they didn’t.  Of course, that game in which the Islanders did not score in the third period happened to be one in which they did not score at all, a 2-0 loss to Pittsburgh last Saturday.

2.  First period scoring has been better of late for the Isles (three first period goals in their last two games), but it remains that only six teams have fewer first period goals this season than the Islanders.  They do seem to make up for it in the second period, though.  Only three teams have scored more middle period goals than New York.

3.  The Islanders do a good job of squeaking out wins.  They have the sixth best winning percentage in the league in one-goal decisions, and only Anaheim and Pittsburgh have fewer one-goal losses in regulation time.

4.  The Isles play nice, too.  With 9.7 minutes per game in penalties, the Islanders have the second fewest average minutes in the league.  Only the New York Rangers have fewer average penalty minutes.

5.  Where the Islanders do struggle is defending at 5-on-5.  Only Florida and Calgary, in whose company no team wants to be, have allowed more goals at 5-on-5.

1.  Washington is dead last in the league in allowing goals in 5-on-3 shorthanded situations.  Six goals allowed in 36 games.  They’re not so great at 5-on-4 shorthanded situations, either.  Only Buffalo has allowed more goals than the Caps in such situations.

2.  The Caps have a 25.4 percent home power play, fifth best in the league.  They have had 55 power play opportunities at home…fifth lowest.

3.  Six teams have recorded fewer shots on goal per game than the Caps.  Pity… the Caps still have the fourth best winning percentage in the league when they outshoot their opponents.

4.  Only Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and Los Angeles have more third period goals scored this season than the Caps, and only nine teams have allowed fewer third period goals.  They have the  fifth best third period goal differential in the league (plus-10).

5.  Home cookin’?  Only seven teams have fewer goals scored at home this season than the Caps.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Evgeni Nabokov

If the Islanders are going to creep into the playoffs, Evgeni Nabokov is going to have to be sharp in goal.  Lately, he has been just that.  In his last five games Nabokov is 4-1-0, 1.59, .941, with one shutout.  He was rested in favor of Kevin Poulin in the Isles’ last game, which was the second of a back to back.  He will be rested.  Just what the Caps need.  Nabokov is 12-1-2, 2.17, .924, with two shutouts in 15 career appearances against Washington, including a 20-save effort in a 3-2 win over the Caps on March 26^th.

Washington: Martin Erat

Well, who else?  The Caps made one deal on deadline day, and Erat was the prize.  He will fill a hole on left wing, either on the first or second line.  Erat is a study in stick-to-it determination.  A seventh-round pick of the Nashville Predators in 1999, Erat spent two more years in Canadian junior before jumping to the Predators in the 2001-2002 season.  In 10 seasons since, coming into this one, he has not been flashy.  In his last eight seasons he has not recorded as many as 25 goals, but he has not had fewer than 16, either.  He has not had a 60-point season, but he has not had one with fewer than 49.  He is the engine that just keeps chugging along.  And the Caps certainly need some more chugging along on the left side.

Keys:

What keys?  This is a huge opportunity, the Caps first chance this season to jump into the top eight, to take the lead in the Southeast.  The rest is just noise.

Capitals 3 – Islanders 1

Washington Capitals: Will They Run Out of Time?

At the end of the day, the epitaph of this season for the Washington Capitals might read, “they ran out of time.”  A couple of weeks ago, we thought the Caps were pretty much done with respect to any hopes of securing a playoff berth.  Last week, we did not think their chances were altogether that good.

But today, the NHL trading deadline, the playoffs are not entirely out of the question.  Why?  Because the Washington Capitals have had two seasons in one, which is not all that surprising given that the Caps’ players did not have a training camp with which to familiarize themselves with a new coach with a new philosophy, one that resembles his predecessor’s philosophy only in that it is still ice hockey.

The Capitals got off to a miserable 2-8-1 start.  By February 7^th they sat in last place in the Eastern Conference. They were already seven points out of the Southeast Division lead and five points out of eighth-place, the last qualifier for the post season.  Given the way the schedule was set up, with all games being of an “intra-conference” nature and so many opportunities for teams ahead of the Caps to earn points even while losing games, the climb back into contention looked daunting, even after just 11 games of a 48-game season.

But in the “second season” for the Caps, they are 15-9-1 since that awful start.  If you compare the standings of teams today with those of February 7^th, the Caps have the fifth-highest points-per-game average since February 7^th.  In fact, even “fifth place” might not be as bad as it sounds.  If you look at records of Eastern Conference clubs since February 7^th, there is a certain amount of clumping going on:

Pittsburgh and Montreal have been the class of the East, each averaging more than 1.5 points per game since February 7^th.  Then there is a group that includes Boston, Toronto, Washington, and Ottawa, separated by 0.15 standings points per game over the last almost two months.  After that there is a group comprised of the Islanders and Rangers, plus Winnipeg and Philadelphia, separated by only 0.11 standings points per game in that span of time.

Put another way, since the Caps’ grisly start to the season, they are 102-point pace team over a full season.  This is, now, a playoff-caliber team.  That is not to say that they are a playoff team.  That poor start looms large, and the Caps are still two points out of the division lead and three points out of eighth place with 12 games left to play.

The Caps have several things going for them as they head down the home stretch.  First, they are playing comparatively well.  Not a Pittsburgh of Montreal level of well, but not insignificantly, either.  Second, the Caps will have eight of their last 12 games at home.  The Caps have had, to date, a poor home record (8-8-0), but that is an anomaly given the Caps dominance at home over the past several years.  One would think – or at least hope – that something to play for in front of their own fans will inspire the club to raise its game at home.  Then there is the matter of their learning curve in adopting head coach Adam Oates’ style of hockey.  The Caps still have only 36 games of real-time experience in applying Oates’ philosophy in NHL games.  There is still an arc to travel on that curve, which suggests that further improvement is possible.

The players have earned themselves a shot at pushing for the playoffs without blowing up this roster.  And while we do not have particular use for the phrase “anything can happen in the playoffs” (anything “can” happen, but anything rarely “does” happen, it seems, after the first round), the New Jersey Devils finished sixth in the East last season and went to a Stanley Cup final.  The Capitals might be that team that "no one wants to play against" in the post-season.  We cannot know at this point what effects and trading deadline deals might have on the Caps or their competitors, but the fact remains that the Caps have the fifth highest points-per-game average since their terrible start.  It is still an uphill climb, but it might be time to cue the music.

Don’t stop believin’…

…unless they just run out of time.

A TWO-point night -- Game 36: Capitals 5 - Hurricanes 3

It was like old times.

Well, 2010 anyway.  Last night in Raleigh, the Washington Capitals went back to the future, falling behind by two goals early, then roaring back behind a barrage from their big guns in defeating the Carolina Hurricanes, 5-3.  The win, coupled with a Winnipeg Jets loss to the New York Islanders, left the Caps just two points out of the Southeast Division lead with the Caps holding two games in hand on the Jets.

It did not start out well for the Caps as the Hurricanes posted two goals on the board midway through the first period.  The first came when Jiri Tlusty batted in a rebound of a Bobby Sanguinetti shot from the top of the crease with three Capitals surrounding him.  Tlusty gave Carolina a 2-0 lead less than three minutes after his first goal when on a power play Karl Alzner could not step out from a pick by Alexander Semin, freeing Tlusty to tee up a wrist shot that beat goalie Braden Holtby and putting the Caps in a two-goal deficit 14:07 into the game.

That would be the high point for the hosts.  As they have so often in what is now a 1-8-1 run over their last ten games, Carolina wilted under an avalanche of goals as the game wore on.  Alex Ovechkin got it started for the Caps before the first period ended, finishing a breakout just as one draws it up.  Braden Holtby got it started by holding the puck behind his own net, then sending it off to Jack Hillen along the wall in the corner.  Hillen sent the puck up to John Carlson exiting the defensive zone, who relayed it to Nicklas Backstrom heading through the neutral zone.  Backstrom gained the blue line, then left the puck for Ovechkin.  Using defenseman Brett Bellemore as a screen, Ovechkin wristed the puck to the long side, off the far post, and in to halve the Carolina lead going into the first intermission.

Mike Green tied the game just 42 seconds into the second period.  After what seemed like five minutes that Nicklas Backstrom held the puck on a power play looking for an option, he floated a pass to Green at the high point.  Green had time to tee up a slap shot and the puck sailed through a clot of bodies in front, once more hitting the post to goalie Dan Ellis’ right and settling into the back of the net.

Jiri Tlusty completed his hat trick 70 seconds after Green’s goal with a door-step deflection of an Eric Staal pass on a Carolina power play, but then the Caps took over for good.  Mike Green got his second of the game and seventh of the season less than three minutes after Tlusty’s goal.  It was another product of Nicklas’ Backstrom’s work.  When the puck squirted free from a battle between Jason Chimera and Eric Staal along the boards in the neutral zone, Backstrom picked it up and curled to the middle where he drove to the net.  As he approached the hash marks Backstrom left the puck for Green, who followed in Backstrom’s wake and wristed a shot over Ellis’ blocker to tie the game once more at three apiece.  That goal ended Ellis’ night in favor of Justin Peters.

The Caps took the lead on some good luck followed by taking advantage of the opportunity the luck provided.  Joni Pitkanen tried a long lead pass out of the Carolina end, but the pass was interrupted by the skate of Alex Ovechkin.  Marcus Johansson tipped the loose puck to Nicklas Backstrom at center ice, and Backstrom took it the other way.  Backstrom skated in aggressively and found Ovechkin behind Patrick Dwyer, trying to get back to back check.  Ovechkin snapped the puck over Peters’ glove, and the rout was on.

Joel Ward finished things up for the Caps in style with 44.9 seconds left in the second period when he converted a two-on-one shorthanded break with Marcus Johansson to give the Caps their final 5-3 margin.

Other stuff…

-- With this win the Caps reached the .500 mark (percentage of standings points earned) for the first time this season.

-- The 19 shots on goal tied a season low for the Caps, that one coming in a 3-2 loss to New Jersey on February 21^st.

-- With two goals in this game, Alex Ovechkin is now tied for third in goals with 20, behind Steven Stamkos (25) and John Tavares (23).  By adding an assist, Ovechkin is tied for tenth in total scoring with 37 points.

-- What’s with Ovechkin and empty nets?  If he’s not ringing chances off iron, he’s shooting it into old friends.  Alexander Semin blocked an empty net attempt with 61 seconds left to deny his old buddy a hat trick.  Hey, what are friends for?  Ovechkin might want to remember that the next time the teams meet (a week from tomorrow in Washington) and he has Semin lined up for a hit.

-- Here is another way to think about Ovechkin and empty nets.  Had he converted all of his empty net chances this season (four), he would have a shooting percentage of 14.5 percent, just off his career best – 14.6 percent in his 65-goal 2007-2008 season.

-- Nicklas Backstrom tied a career high with his four-assist night.  It is the seventh time he turned the trick, the first time since getting four helpers in a 6-3 win over Tampa Bay on Veterans Day, 2010.

--  Mike Green’s two-goal night was his first since getting a pair in a 7-1 win over Detroit on October 22, 2011.  Caps fans will remember that game as the last win in a seven-game winning streak to open the 2011-2012 season.  It was also the last time we saw a “healthy” Mike Green for quite some time.  After that game he played in only three games over the next four months.

-- The Not-So-Young Guns – Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Green – finished the night a combined 4-5-9, plus-5.  Like the old days.

-- And as if for good measure, the departed “Young Gun” – Alexander Semin – had a pair of assists of his own, but he was a minus-2, and yes, he did take an offensive zone tripping penalty.  Like the old days.

-- One more on Ovechkin… he is shooting again.  Over his last 29 games he has averaged 4.8 shots per game (a 396-shot pace over 82 games).  Not coincidentally, he has 18 goals in that span of games, a 51-goal pace.  He has almost a third of the Capitals’ shots in this game (six of 19).  Ovechkin has never been a sniper in the mold of a Mike Bossy or even a Peter Bondra.  He’s been the gattling gun that shreds opponents with volume.  And he seems to be back.  Like the old days.

-- Joel Ward’s goal broke a 16-game dry spell. It was his first shorthanded goal as a Cap, and it was his first since his shorthanded goal for Nashville opened the game’s scoring in the Predators’ 3-2 win over Vancouver on January 22, 2010.

-- Braden Holtby allowed three goals, the fourth straight game in which he has allowed three or more.  It is the longest such streak of his brief career to date.

-- Marcus Johansson had two more assists.  That makes five multi-point games in his last nine contests, over which he is 3-8-11, plus-6.  His plus-3 tied a career best, set in a 3-0 win over New Jersey on March 18, 2011.

In the end, this did look a lot like a game out of the 2009-2010 playbook.  Fall behind early?  Yeah, sure.  So what?  Then they come roaring back with timely offense from the guys who need to be timely with their offense.  Then they get enough goaltending and defense late (Holtby stopped the last 22 shots he faced) to seal the deal.  The question is, will that be a winning formula going forward?  We would just as soon dispense with the falling behind early part. 

It ended up being a successful (2-0-1) road trip for the Caps, and they get a bit of a break in the schedule.  They will have to contend with the surging Islanders, but then they get Florida and Tampa Bay before midnight on Sunday.  They have dealt with adversity to put themselves in a position to rip the division lead out of Winnipeg’s mitts.  Let’s see how they deal with their recent good fortune.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 36: Capitals at Hurricanes, April 2nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals finish up their last long road trip of the season tonight in Raleigh, North Carolina, taking on the Carolina Hurricanes in the latest “most important game of the season” for the Caps.  Washington heads to Carolina having earned three of a possible four points through two games of this three-game road trip and get the Hurricanes coming off a 4-1 loss to the Montreal Canadiens on Monday night.

The loss to Montreal is just the most recent misstep taken by Carolina these days.  When Carolina beat Washington in a 4-0 shutout on March 12^th, the Hurricanes led the Southeast Division with a 15-9-1 record.  Since then, however, the Hurricanes have a record of 1-7-1 and have fallen to tenth place in the Eastern Conference.

In that woeful nine-game stretch the Hurricanes have been outscored, 31-14.  Oddly enough, five of their eight losses have come by identical 4-1 scores, including last night’s loss in Montreal.  And is not as if any part of the Hurricane game has held its own.  Its power play went 3-for-32 (9.4 percent), a worse mark overall than even their overall league-worst season mark of 10.0 percent.  Its penalty kill went 19-for-27 (70.4 percent), also worse than their overall season mark of 78.6 percent.

The big problem for the Hurricanes in their 1-7-1 run is their seemingly endless capacity to fall apart as games go on.  Only three times in the nine games have they trailed at the first intermission, and only four times have they trailed after 40 minutes.  But those third periods… In their last nine games Carolina has been outscored, 15-5, and twice they allowed four goals – once in a 4-1 loss to Florida, of all teams, on March 19^th, and again on March 28^th in a 6-3 loss to Toronto when they allowed four unanswered goals after taking a 3-2 third period lead.

One thing that comes jumping off the page looking at the Hurricanes’ individual statistics over these last nine games is the absence of secondary scoring.  Eric Staal (4-3-7) and Alexander Semin (4-3-7) have had decent scoring stretches, but after that Carolina has only seven goals in nine games from the rest of their skaters, and Jordan Staal has three of those.

Carolina started this rough stretch with Dan Ellis in goal in place of injured Cam Ward, but that lasted until he suffered a cut to his left knee in the last minute of a 4-1 loss to New Jersey on March 21^st.  His contribution over the Hurricanes’ last nine games is an 0-3-1 record with a 2.73 goals against average and a .913 save percentage.  He was reactivated from injured reserve yesterday.  The heavy netminding burden has fallen to Justin Peters in Ellis’ absence.  During this 1-7-1 run Peters is 1-4-0, 3.21, .899.

Here is how the two teams compare in their overall numbers…

1.  Carolina, with the 30^th ranked power play and 29^th ranked penalty kill, has the worst special teams in the NHL.  Buffalo (28^th in power play and tied for 27^th in penalty killing) would be the next worst team overall in special teams.

2.  Only Florida has lost more games by three or more goals than the Hurricanes.  Carolina has lost 11 such games this season, including their last five losses.

3.  Conversely, no team has played in fewer one-goal games than Carolina, and it is not close.  The Hurricanes have played in only eight one-goal decisions this season (Pittsburgh is second with 12).  They are tied with Florida and Tampa Bay for the fewest one-goal wins (four).  Must be a Southeast thing.

4.  Carolina has the worst intra-divisional record in the Southeast (4-9-0).  In fact, no team in the league has fewer standing points earned within their division than Carolina.  They are tied with the Colorado Avalanche with eight points earned.

5.  The Hurricanes are front runners in a sense.  They are 7-1-1 when leading after the first period and 12-1-0 when leading after two periods.  The problem is in the numbers.  With nine leads after the first period, only five teams have had fewer leads at the first intermission.

1.  Washington has earned points in each of their last five road games (4-0-1).  They have the eighth-best road record in the East and through 19 road games are already half-way to the total number of  road wins they had over 41 games this season (eight this year versus 16 last season).

2.  Only five teams have fewer wins when leading after two periods than the Caps.  That .750 winning percentage might look impressive (9-3-0), but only six teams have worse winning percentages.

3.  On the same theme, only three teams have a worse record when scoring first than the Caps.  The Caps have a healthy 20 first scores in 35 games, but their record in such games is only 11-8-1.

4.  The Caps’ power play has been efficient (24.4 percent, second in the league), but they have not had a lot of opportunities to use it.  The Caps are tied for 17^th in the league in total power play opportunities.  They do, however, have the fourth highest number of power play opportunities thus far on the road.

5.  Only the Buffalo Sabres have spent more time killing penalties on the road (141:09) than Washington (125:19).  That might not be an all bad thing, given that the Caps have only the 12^th highest number of shorthanded situations faced.  What that tells us, though (given the Caps 27^th ranked penalty kill) is that they give up a lot of power play goals late in power plays.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Jeff Skinner

Jeff Skinner exploded onto the NHL landscape two seasons ago when he scored 31 goals as an 18-year old rookie.  He dropped to 20 goals in 64 games last season, and this season he has ten in 29 games.  More to the point as it concerns recent Hurricane performance, Skinner has only one goal in his last ten games and only two in his last 15 contests.  Carolina has to get more out of Skinner if they are going to halt their recent slide.  He is 1-7-8, plus-2, in 14 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin leads the NHL in power play goals with a dozen.  No other player is in double digits in man-advantage goals.  Now, imagine if he was doing something similar at even strength.  He is tied for 97^th in even strength goals with the likes of Mark Letestu, Jamie McGinn, and Brian Bickell.  He is not even the leader on his own team in even strength goals (Troy Brouwer is, with seven).  If Ovechkin can drag his even-strength goal production up toward that he has displayed on the power play, the Caps’ chances to make up those last few standings points to make the post season will be enhanced significantly.  Ovechkin is 22-40-62, plus-5, in 50 career games against Carolina. 

Keys:

1.  Play 60.  The Caps were on both sides of late scores in regulation time in their last two games, scoring with 39.2 seconds left to tie Buffalo before winning in the freestyle competition, then losing a lead with ten seconds left in what would be an overtime loss to Philadelphia.  Another lesson given in the virtues of playing all 60 minutes.

2.  Increase net profits.  The Caps did not get the best production out of goalie Braden Holtby last week, and that is something that has to be stopped right quick if the Caps are going to keep a playoff spot in sight.  This could be a good team against which he can get back on track.  Holtby is 2-1-0, 1.34, .963, with one shutout in three career appearances against Carolina.

3.  Be patient.  Carolina has self-destructed in the third periods of games in their recent run of bad luck.  There really has not been any reason to think that a sudden improvement will be forthcoming.  But the Caps need to press the opportunities when they appear.

In the end…

The Caps can make this a very successful road trip with a win.  Anytime a team goes 2-0-1 on a road trip, it is a good thing.  But if they lose and go 1-1-1?  It is just more marching in place to nowhere in particular.  The Caps cannot drop any further in the standings if they lose this game in regulation; they would remain in 11^th place in the East.  But they could fall five points behind the Islanders for eighth place if the Islanders win and the Caps lose in regulation.

Ah, but winning.  If the Caps win in regulation, they jump ahead of the Hurricanes into tenth at worst and, if the Islanders lose to the Winnipeg Jets tonight, could be only one point behind the New York Rangers for eighth place.  Even if the Islanders win in regulation, a Caps win would get them to within two points of Winnipeg for the Southeast Division lead with two games in hand and one more game against the Jets, at home on April 23^rd.  So…win.

Capitals 4 – Hurricanes 1

Your Washington Capitals Fan Guide to April Fools' Day...Fools

It is April 1^st, by custom referred to as “April Fools’ Day.”   One story of its origin has it beginning in ancient Rome, a part of “Hilaria” festivals celebrated at the start of spring to honor their “Great Mother.”  Today, it is an excuse to play practical jokes and perpetrate hoaxes on the gullible and unsuspecting among us.  All in the interest of good fun and, well, hilarity.

But given that April Fools’ Day comes so close to the trading deadline in the National Hockey League, chances are there will be a fair number of April Fool’s Day jokes made with this deadline in mind and with the intent of inspiring wailing and teeth gnashing among hockey fans who are on tenterhooks concerning their favorite teams’ intentions concerning possible trades.

So, as a public service from your Uncle Peerless, we bring you those things that are NOT going to happen over the next few days as the NHL approaches zero hour on trade deadline day…

• Evgeni Kuznetsov will NOT receive permission from the Kontinental Hockey League to forgo the remaining term of his contract to join the Washington Capitals for their playoff stretch run.
• Jeff Schultz and Marcus Johansson are NOT going to be traded for Martin St. Louis (except on hockey message boards). 
• Ted Leonsis is NOT going to sell his hockey holdings to a consortium of bloggers calling themselves “Blogumental Sports.” 
• Alex Ovechkin did NOT elope with Maria Kirilenko to points unknown after the game in Philadelphia on Sunday evening. 
• Michal Neuvirth is NOT going to be traded to Phoenix for Shane Doan and the Coyotes’ number one draft pick in June. 
• Mike Ribeiro is NOT going to be traded to the New York Rangers for Chris Krieder and the Rangers’ number one draft pick in June. 
• The Caps are NOT trading Filip Forsberg to Florida for the Panthers first round draft picks in 2013 and 2014. 
• George McPhee is NOT stepping down as general manager in favor of Jay Feaster so he can pursue his dream of a career in stand-up comedy. 
• Monumental Sports is NOT announcing that they have a preliminary agreement with the NHL to host a Winter Classic outdoor game against the Ottawa Senators on the refurbished Reflecting Pool on the National Mall. 
• Joe Beninati is NOT announcing that he is leaving CSN Washington to replace Drew Carey as host of “The Price is Right.” 
• George McPhee is NOT going to announce that if the Capitals are eliminated from playoff contention, head coach Adam Oates will return to Hershey to team-coach with Mark French for the Bears’ playoff run. 
• George McPhee is NOT going to announce that if Hershey is eliminated from playoff contention, Bears head coach Mark French will come to Washington to team-coach with Adam Oates for the Capitals’ playoff run. 
• Alex Ovechkin will NOT auction off the stitches in his chin on eBay for charity (although he’d probably get quite haul). 
• The Caps are not trading their entire 2013 draft pick package for Bobby Ryan. 
• Craig Laughlin is NOT stepping down as a television analyst to be the voice of “Davy Jones’ ‘Locker’” on SpongeBob SquarePants. 
• Mike Milbury is NOT giving Alex Ovechkin a set of brass balls as a wedding present. 
• The Capitals are NOT secretly petitioning the league to be aligned into whatever division the Florida Panthers are in.

And there you have it, a short list of examples of the sort of April Fools’ Day jokes that need to be debunked now, before Caps fans go all “Caps fan” and indulge their well-developed sense of paranoia.  Consider yourselves warned.