A TWO-point night -- Game 43: Capitals 5 - Maple Leafs 1

The Washington Capitals made it eight wins a row last evening with a very complete 5-1 demolishing of the Toronto Maple Leafs at Verizon Center.

The win prevented the Maple Leafs from clinching their first trip to the playoffs since 2004 and allowed the Caps to maintain their four point lead on Winnipeg, which resides in second place in the Southeast Division and ninth place in the Eastern Conference.

The teams spent the much of the first period looking for an opening but finding none until the 15^th minute of the period.  Eric Fehr outdueled Mark Fraser for the puck behind the Leafs’ net and slid it to Jason Chimera along the left wing wall.  Chimera had difficulty fishing the puck out from his skates but managed to move it along to Jack Hillen at the left point.  Hillen fired a shot that nicked the stick of Toronto’s Nazem Kadri on the way through, the puck angled just enough to jump over the glove of goalie Ben Scrivens and in, giving the Caps the 1-0 lead.

The Caps put the game away in the second period with three goals, two of them coming in short order early in the period.  The first came just after a Toronto penalty expired when an Alex Ovechkin drive from the left faceoff circle was tipped in from the top of the crease by Martin Erat.  It was Erat’s first goal for the Caps. 

The second goal of the period came less than three minutes later and started with a pile up in the neutral zone.  Mike Ribeiro and Jake Gardiner got tangled up with Gardiner tumbling to the ice, creating just enough confusion to allow the Caps to get free with a 3-on-2 break.  John Carlson and Troy Brouwer led the rush, Carlson feeding Brouwer in deep for a deke and a backhand through the legs of Scrivens to give Washington a 3-0 lead 7:55 into the period.

The competitive portion of the evening ended late in the second period when Alex Ovechkin scored a goal of his own on a power play.  Mike Ribeiro got things started when he carried the puck into the Toronto zone, held up to get the traffic pass him by, then skated the puck down the right wing wall.  From there he moved the puck back out to Mike Green at the right point.  Green spied Ovechkin in the left wing circle and sent the puck over for a one-timer than Ovechkin blew past Scrivens. 

The teams exchanged third period goals, Toronto spoiling goalie Braden Holtby’s bid for his fifth shutout of the season when Mikhail Grabovski scored on a deflection of a Ryan Hamilton shot.  Marcus Johansson got it back midway through the period on a power play when he put back the rebound of a Mike Green shot that bounced hard off the back wall.  That would be all for the scoring, the Caps skating off with a 5-1 win.

Other stuff…

-- The Caps’ power play is alive again.  The two power play goals makes it 5-for-15 in the last three games.  We made the point that the Leafs were among the most penalized teams in the league, and the six power plays awarded to the Caps certainly were consistent with that.  The six power plays for the Caps were topped in only two games this season, one being a seven power play contest against Philadelphia on February 27^th (a 4-1 loss) and an eight power play game against New Jersey on January 25^th (a 3-2 overtime loss).

-- Keeping Toronto off the scoreboard early was a key.  Only one team in the league had more wins in when leading after one period, making the 1-0 lead the Caps took to the locker room at the first intermission a bonus.

-- How they got to that first intermission with a lead was due, in no small part, to winning the first ten faceoffs taken in the game.  No puck, no score.

-- There was also the matter of volume and getting shots on goal with a goalie that had not played since March 26^th.  The 37 shots on goal recorded by the Caps – 25 in the first two periods when the game was still competitive – was five shots above their season average.

-- Mike Ribeiro’s two points make him 1-7-8 in his last six games and lift him into a tie for 12^th place in the league in points.

-- Martin Erat’s goal was not only was his first as a Capital, but it ended a bit of a drought.  He had not scored a goal since potting one in a 5-3 Nashville Predator win over Calgary on March 21^st.  He had not scored a goal in nine games until last night’s tally.

-- Mike Green had his first two-assist game of the year and his first since he had a pair of assists in a 7-1 win over Detroit on October 22, 2011.  He is 2-2-4 in his last three games.

-- It was John Carlson’s first two-assist game of the year, too, and his first since getting a pair in a 5-3 win over Ottawa on December 7, 2011.

-- Every Capital skater had a shot on goal except John Erskine and Mathieu Perreault.

-- Maybe it was the fact that Toronto played on Monday night, but the Maple Leafs managed only 27 shot attempts (18 on goal) over the first two periods.

-- With 29 saves on 30 shots, Braden Holtby went to 6-0-0, 2.28, .935 over his last six games.

In the end… the game turned on a five-minute sequence late in the first period.  Less than a minute after the Hillen goal, Jay McClement rode Nicklas Backstrom into the boards in front of the Leafs’ bench.  Alex Ovechkin “leaped over the turnbuckle” (as the Toronto broadcasters put it) to come to Backstrom’s defense.  Ovechkin would get the only penalty – a charging call – and the Caps would kill the ensuing Toronto power play. Then, when McClement reappeared on the ice, Jason Chimera made sure he paid his pound of flesh for the pain visited on Backstrom, outdueling McClement in a battle of fists.

It could have ended much worse for the Caps – an injured Backstrom when he was boarded by McClement (a call that was not made), Ovechkin getting hurt in the scrum that followed, the Maple Leafs tying the game on the power play that followed.  But in the “all’s well that ends well” frame of mind, the Caps stood up to the aggravation, killed a penalty, held the lead, and built on it from there.  It was five minutes that could be important to this team down the road.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 43: Maple Leafs at Capitals, April 16th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well, if you are going to go into the post-season having to play tougher opponents, there is no time like the present to see how you stack up against them.  And that is where the Washington Capitals find themselves, about to undertake a week in which they will take on three teams, all from Canada, and all currently qualifying for the playoffs.

First up in what could be a playoff preview – either in the first round or (hopefully) down the road – the Capitals host the Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday night.  This will be the last regular season meeting of the clubs, Toronto having won both contests earlier this season by identical 3-2 margins, one in each city.

Toronto played in New Jersey last evening, but leading up to that game had sustained a pretty good run of success. The Leafs went into last night’s game against the Devils with a 6-1-1 record in their last eight games, outscoring their opponents by a 29-17 margin.  Three of the six wins were by margins of three or more goals, including decisions at Ottawa (4-0) and against Montreal (5-1).

Special teams have been impressive for the Leafs in this run, especially the penalty kill.  Over those last eight games the Leafs are 25-for-26 (96.2 percent), part of a longer run in which they are 55-for-58 (94.8 percent) in 19 games since the beginning of March.

The power play has not been quite as impressive, but it has had its moments, going 5-for-27 (18.5 percent) over the 6-1-1 run.  In five of the wins in this stretch the Leafs recorded a power play goal.

In these last eight games Toronto has had points from 18 different skaters and goals from 12 different players.  Phil Kessel leads the club with five goals over this stretch and is tied with James Van Riemsdyk in assists with six.  Kessel leads in overall point with 11, Joffrey Lupul has nine (4-5-9).

Lupul’s point total in this eight-game run is made more impressive by the fact that: a) he missed almost two months of the season with a broken arm, returning only on March 16^th, and b) he suffered a concussion on April 4^th against Philadelphia, causing him to miss the last four games heading into Monday night’s game against New Jersey.

Meanwhile, James Reimer has been the goalie of record in each of the last seven decisions heading into Monday night’s action.  He is 5-1-1 in that stretch with a 1.99 goals against average and a .933 save percentage with one shutout.  He is 1-2-1 in four career appearances against the Caps with a 2.97 goals against average and a .903 save percentage. He does, however, have a win in his lone appearance against the Caps this season, a 3-2 win on January 31^st.

Here is how the teams compare, numbers-wise (through games of Sunday)...

1.  Toronto seems all but assured of ending a seven-season streak in which they failed to make the playoffs.  It is the longest streak in franchise history. Until this streak Toronto had not gone more than two seasons without making the playoffs since enduring a three-season streak from 1925-26 through 1927-28, and in the first of those seasons they went by the name, “Toronto St. Patricks.”

2.  Capitals assistant coach Calle Johansson played on the last Toronto Maple Leaf team to make the post-season, going without a point and a minus-1 in four post-season games.

3.  Toronto is the only team in the NHL to have scored at least 40 goals in each of the first, second, and third periods of games this season.

4.  The Maple Leafs have done very well in one goal games, as the two one-goal decision over the Caps attest.  Toronto is 11-3-5 in one-goal decisions (before Monday’s game against New Jersey).  Only four teams have fewer one-goal losses in regulation, and only Anaheim has done it having played more one-goal decisions (14-2-5).

5.  It is perhaps worth noting that the 2006-2007 Stanley Cup champion Anaheim Ducks were third in the NHL in total penalties taken, first (by a whopping 71-47 margin) in major penalties taken, and first in penalty minutes per game.  The Maple Leafs of 2013 are fourth in total penalties taken, first (by a whopping 42-32 margin) in major penalties taken, and first in penalty minutes per game.  Both teams were/are coached by Randy Carlyle.

1.  Washington is now fifth in goal scoring at home with their 3.10 per game average.  They have 13 goals scored in their last three home games.

2. Only three teams have faced fewer shorthanded situations at home than the Caps (58).  They have not faced more than three shorthanded situations on home ice since February 21^st when they were 5-for-6 on penalty kills.  That is 12 straight home games not facing more than three shorthanded situations.

3.  Washington is at the end opposite the Maple Leafs when it comes to penalties.  Only six teams have fewer penalty minutes per game than the Caps (10.5).

4.  The Caps need better starts.  They have a minus-5 goal differential in the first periods of games this season, a plus-7 in the second period of games, and a plus-5 in the third period of games.

5.  The Caps have been outshot by opponents in 31 of 42 games this season and have a 15-14-2 record in those games.  They are one of eight teams that has not finished a game even with their opponents in shots on goal.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Toronto:  Mikhail Grabovski

The standard operating procedure in the NHL for identifying injuries is “upper body” and “lower body” injuries, usually hiding some structural injury – a knee, and ankle, a shoulder, a groin – or a concussion.  Mikhail Grabovski has had to deal with other issues recently, a gastrointestinal disorder that, according to head coach Randy Carlyle, has been bothering the 29-year old forward for a couple of years.  It is hard enough to play the game when at tip-top shape, but to deal with a chronic ailment and still perform at a high level (52 goals in 155 games in the two seasons preceding this one) says something about Grabovski’s grit.  Still, he is without a point in his last four games and has only one assist in his last eight games. He is 3-5-8, plus-4 in 17 career games against Washington.

Washington: Mathieu Perreault

Mathieu Perreault is 5-10-15 this season in 33 games played.  Of that total, Perreault is 4-7-11 in 16 home games. Only Eric Fehr has a better home plus-minus (plus-9) than Perreault (plus-6).  He has a 55.6 percent faceoff winning percentage at home versus 48.8 percent on the road.  And it is not as if he is doing it with tons of ice time.  He is averaging 10:09 in home games this season.  In his last six home games he is 1-4-5, plus-4.  Clearly, he likes home cooking.  He will bring a 3-0-3, plus-4 career scoring line against Toronto into this game.

Keys:

1.  As the first 20 go… Toronto is fifth in the league in first period goals scored, and only Chicago has more wins when leading after one period.  The Caps need to play the first 20 like a road game, keeping things simple. 

2.  Happy place.  “Truculence” is a word often used in jest to describe the Maple Leafs, but it fits.  They play fast and loose with the rules.  The Caps cannot be in a retaliatory mode.  Let the Leafs do their thing, then the Caps can do their thing…score power play goals.

3.   Do a volume business.  James Reimer has been the goalie of record in Toronto’s last eight games (including the win over New Jersey on Monday night).  This being the second of a back to back, Ben Scrivens could get the call in goal.  In four of his last six appearances he has failed to reach the .900 mark in save percentage.  Make him make saves.

In the end…

This will be a challenge for the Caps, even with Toronto coming into DC from a game last night.  The Maple Leafs are 3-3-1 in the back half of back-to-back games this season.  And while the Caps are looking to extend their winning streak to eight games, the seventh win in that streak revealed a number of holes.  If the Caps learn from that third period against Tampa Bay and tend to business, well..

Capitals 4 – Maple Leafs 3

Washington Capitals -- That Was The Week That Was: Week 12

Week 12 is in the books, and it is the second straight perfect win-loss week for the Caps.  Four straight “green” weeks of winning records.  What seemed like an Everest to climb a month ago is now a case of being within site of the summit. But with just two weeks left, there are dangerous steps yet to take.  Let us first look at the week that was.

Record: 3-0-0

The Caps started the week on a nice 4-0-0 run, and when it ended they added three more wins to the streak.  It marked the sixth straight season in which the Caps recorded a winning streak of at least seven games.  It was the ninth consecutive non-losing week for the Caps over which they are 20-9-1.  Those 41 points in 30 games is a 112-point pace.  Having played 30 games at that pace, the Caps might not be among the consensus contenders for the Cup, but neither are they undeserving of a playoff spot.

Offense: 4.00 (season: 3.00 / rank: 6^th)

Alex Ovechkin gets the ink for taking the league goal-scoring lead away from Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos this week, but it was Troy Brouwer who led the Caps for the week in goals with three, including a two-goal game against Carolina on Thursday. Brouwer was one of five Caps with at least two goals this week, Ovechkin, Eric Fehr, Mike Green being on that list, too.  Also on that list, though, was defensemen Jack Hillen, his first two goals with the Caps.  Nicklas Backstrom was the points leader for the week, posting four assists in the three games.  Right behind him was defenseman Steve Oleksy, who with three assists this week is now second on the team among defensemen in assists.  His eight helpers trail only John Carlson (14).

Defense: 2.67 (season: 2.81 / rank: 20^th)

Strange week for the Caps in the defensive end.  In the first two games of the week, against Montreal and Carolina, the Caps gave up goals in the first period, then dug in, allowing only a third period goal to Montreal after they took a 3-1 lead.  This despite allowing a total of 51 second and third period shots in those two games (almost 13 shots on goal per period).  Playing on that edge came back and almost cost the Caps two standings points in the last game of the week.  The Caps held Tampa Bay to six first period shots in the last game of the week, but again, the shot volumes ramped up significantly in the second and third periods – 32 in all – and the Lightning scored five goals.  Overall the Caps allowed 83 shots over six periods constituting the second and third periods of the three games (13.8 per period).  This is not a trend that is conducive to winning.

Goaltending: 2.62 / .929 (season: 2.77 / .913 / 4 shutouts)

The shot totals faced – 113 in three games (37.7 per game) – accounts for the two directions in which the goaltending numbers went this week.  A 2.62 goals against average is not especially impressive, but it looks a lot better when taken with the .929 save percentage recorded by Michal Neuvirth and Braden Holtby.  Neuvrith impressed in what was his second straight start in the first game of the week, holding a potent Montreal Canadiens team to just two goals on 29 shots.  By comparison, though, Braden Holtby was shelled more than the free peanuts on Saturday night at the sports bar.  Holtby faced 84 shots and stopped 78 of them, a .929 save percentage.   It is part of an oddly consistent run for Holtby.  Since a lackluster couple of games to close the month of March, he has a, yes, .929 save percentage over his last five games, all of them wins.

Power Play: 3-10 / 30.0 percent (season: 25.5 percent / rank 1^st)

I was a good week and a bit of a misleading one in two respects.  First, the ten power play opportunities seems a bit light, but the Caps did manage four against Carolina and five against Tampa Bay, the games in which they scored all their power play goals.  And that is part of a trend.  Getting three power play opportunities seems an important threshold.  In 34 games in which the Caps were awarded at least three power plays, they scored power play goals in 25 of them.  Overall in such games they are 34-for-131 (26.0 percent).  In the eight games in which the Caps have two or fewer power play opportunities they scored power play goals in three of them and are 3-for-14 (21.4 percent).

Penalty Killing: 5-6 / 83.3 percent (season: 76.1 percent / rank: 29^th)

The Caps had a decent week, made more so by the fact that they faced only six shorthanded situations.  That, and the fact that two of the teams – Carolina and Tampa Bay (the ones against the Caps were a perfect 5-for-5) – ranked 19^th and 23^rd in road power play efficiency.  The one team that scored a goal – Montreal (1-for-1) – has the seventh best home power play mark.  And the same threshold seems to apply here as on the power play.  In 26 games in which the Caps faced three or more shorthanded opportunities they allowed at least one power play goal in 17 of them and killed penalties to a 75.9 percent efficiency rate (85-for-112).  In 16 games in which they faced less than three shorthanded situations they allowed goals in only seven.  The efficiency rate is not much different (76.7 percent), but once more, the best hope for the Caps in killing penalties seems to be not taking them.

Hits/Blocked Shots: 86/71 (season rank: 19^th / 5^th)

The thing to note here is that the Caps blocked almost a third of the shot attempts taken by opponents this week (71 of 217; 32.7 percent).  But almost half of those blocked shots came in the first game of the week against Montreal.  In fact, the Caps blocked more shots (34) than the Canadiens managed to direct on goal (29).

Faceoffs: 95-196 / 48.5 percent (season: 50.6 percent / rank: 12^th)

Overall it was a non-descript week, the Caps being a few faceoff wins short of 50 percent.  But there was a warning sign.  Washington was just 24-for-65 against Montreal, only 5-for-18 in the offensive zone.  And, there was the matter of taking 25 defensive zone draws against those 18 in the offensive end in teat game.  One would like the Caps tilting the ice a bit more in the other direction.

Turnovers: minus-13

The Caps were once more in double digits on the minus side of the turnover ledger.  It was the product of being minus-15 on giveaways in the last two games of the week, against Carolina and Tampa Bay.  This would seem to go hand-in-glove with what were the substantial shot volumes against the Caps in those games (84 in the two games).

In the end…

A seven game winning streak is much better than the alternative, but the Caps had their adventurous moments against Southeast Division also-rans Carolina and Tampa Bay.  And sometimes, as we pointed out in last night’s post-game, “this is what a team looks like when a winning streak might be coming to an end.”

The Caps are going to move up in weight class this week.  They get Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal, the latter two games being on the road in the last road trip of the regular season.  At the moment those teams are ranked fifth, sixth, and second in the Eastern Conference, respectively.  Allowing an average of almost 38 shots a game this week could have much worse results than allowing that many this past week.  And if they suffer a letdown in the last 20 minutes as they did against Tampa Bay on Saturday, these opponents might just come all the way back from a deficit.  This race is not over yet, not with two weeks and six games left.

Washington Capitals -- Seventh Heaven

When the Washington Capitals defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning last night, it marked their seventh straight win.  It also meant that for the sixth straight season the Caps have enjoyed a winning streak of at least seven games.  Here they are...

Truth be told, we would just as soon the Caps trade them in for another number: "16"... as in 16 wins in the post-season.

A TWO-point night -- Game 42: Capitals 6 - Lightning 5 (OT)

So, you played 20 minutes, out-shot your opponent, 20-6, scored three goals in a span of 5:37, and took a 3-0 lead into the locker room at the first intermission against the Tampa Bay Lightning, a team that was 1-11-2 when trailing at the end of the first period.

Sounds like you’re in for a pleasant night, or so you would think, if you were a Washington Capitals fan watching the home team run out to that 3-0 lead after 20 minutes.  It would be even more pleasant when the Caps extended that lead to 4-0 less than three minutes into the second period.  The Lightning chipped away methodically, though, and they caught the Caps with less than three minutes in regulation, tying the game at 5-5.  But the Caps sent their fans home happy, if a little worse for wear, as Mike Green scored 2:59 into overtime, beating the Lightning, 6-5.

The Caps started their three-goal flurry in the first period with a special delivery from Brouwertown.  Troy Brouwer took a feed from Mike Ribeiro at the edge of the right-wing circle and fired a shot across his body and past goalie Ben Bishop on the long side to give the Caps a 1-0 lead.

Five minutes later, the Caps added to their lead when Tampa got caught in their own end.  It started when Matt Hendricks got tangled up with Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman along the wall.  B.J. Crombeen exercised poor judgment and went after Hendricks, and with Hedman down and Vincent Lecavalier caught deep after he went to the net for a pass that never came, the Lightning had only two men back – only one of them a defenseman – to defend a four-man Capitals rush. And a textbook rush it was.  Jay Beagle carried the puck down the right side, Aaron Volpatti charging down the middle to occupy Dana Tyrell.  That left space into which defenseman Jack Hillen could jump, and he did just that, taking a pass from Beagle and rifling the puck past Garon before Eric Brewer could get across.

Then, with just 38 seconds left in the period the Caps struck again.  It was a product of quick transition as Nicklas Backstrom got things started by picking up a loose puck in the Washington end and starting out down the left wing.  Backstrom tried to complete a long cross-ice pass to Alex Ovechkin, but it was nicked along the way by Alex Killorn.  The effect was to change the vector of the puck so that it was sliding free into the Tampa Bay zone.  Alex Ovechkin sped around beat Victor Hedman to the puck, skated around him, and backhanded the puck past Garon just before the period ended, the Caps now up by a 3-0 score.

The second period started the way the first frame ended, with a Capitals goal.  Jason Chimera and Mathieu Perreault executed a perfect give-and-go on a 2-on-1 break, Chimera giving, then going, then getting a return pass from Perreault for his second goal of the season.

At that point Caps fans were counting their two points and looking forward to their half-price pizza.  Tampa Bay had other ideas.  Richard Panik scored for the Lightning just 1:14 after the Chimera goal tomake it 4-1.  Eric Fehr scored just 1:31 later when he converted a nice turnaround pass from Mathieu Perreault from the top of the crease to make it 5-1.  But as the second period was coming to a close, Martin St. Louis got one back for Tampa Bay, one-timing a pass from Steven Stamkos past goalie Braden Holtby.

The third period would be all Tampa Bay.  Richard Panik scored at 4:23, followed by St. Louis again at 8:17.  Teddy Purcell slid a puck on a backhand through Holtby with just 2:35 left to tie the game at 5-5 and send the game to overtime.

In overtime, Vincent Lecavalier took a slashing penalty on Marcus Johansson to prevent a scoring chance 1:53 into the extra session.  That gave the Caps a 4-on-3 advantage and that much more space with which to work with the man advantage.  And it was left up to Mike Green quarterbacking the power play from the top of the diamond in front of goalie Mathieu Garon.  Green surveyed his options, looking for Eric Fehr on his left, then send the puck down to Mike Ribeiro at the goal line.  Ribeiro fed it back to Green, and seeing no other option, Green called his own number, firing a slap shot between Tom Pyatt and Victor Hedman and past Garon for the game-winner.

Other stuff…

-- The goal by Mike Green – his tenth of the season – drew him to within one of Montreal’s P.K. Subban, who leads all defensemen in goals with 11.

-- The goal and an assist for Alex Ovechkin lifted him into the league lead in goal scoring, passing Steven Stamkos with his 27^th goal, and into a tie for fifth place with Patrick Kane in points with 46.  His nine shots on goal was one off his season high of ten set back on March 30^th in a 4-3 Gimmick win over Buffalo.

-- The two-assist effort by Mathieu Perreault was his first multi-point game since going 1-1-2 in a 5-3 win over Buffalo on March 17^th.  His two assists represented his second multi-assist game of the season, the other coming when he had three on Valentine’s Day in a 4-3 win over these same Lightning.

-- With two assists, Mike Ribeiro is now 1-5-6 in six games since the trading deadline.  He also happens to be a minus-3 in those games, though, including a minus-2 tonight.

-- Richard Panik had his best game of his brief 19-game career to date for Tampa.  He had his first multi-goal game, his first multi-point game, tied a career high in shots on goal (four), and was a career high plus-4 in 15:32 of ice time. 

-- The two power play goals extended the Caps’ lead in power play efficiency.  They are now at 25.5 percent after going 2-for-5.  Here is your interesting power play fact.  The Caps are now 19-for-55 on the power play against the Southeast Division (34.6 percent) in 17 games.  In 25 games against the rest of the East, the Caps are 18-for-90 on the power play (20.0 percent).

-- John Erskine was a heat-seeking missile tonight…eight hits in 20:38 of ice time.

-- We noted in the prognosto that Eric Fehr might be emerging from a points drought.  His 1-1-2 night was his first multi-point game since going 1-2-3 in the Caps 4-3 overtime win over Boston on March 5^th.  He is 2-1-3 over his last three games.

-- Steve Oleksy has a pair of assists, the first time he turned that trick since his second game of the year with the Caps, a 7-1 win over Florida on March 7^th.  He now has nine assists in 22 games, which is a 34-assist pace over 82 games.  That number would have put him in the top-15 among defensemen last season.

-- Mike Green had the game-winner and had seven shots on goals, but he was also on ice for three goals against.  Karl Alzner was in the same boat as his partner, on ice for three goals against.

-- The Caps outshot the Lightning by a 20-5 margin in getting out to their 3-0 lead in the first period.  They were outshot, 33-20 from that point on.

-- It could have been a lot worse for the Lightning in that first period.  They spent 6:51 of the first 14:54 of the game killing penalties.  They were lucky to get out of that with only one goal scored against them, that coming on the fourth power play of the period for the Caps.

-- Jay Beagle had 1:01 of power play ice time tonight.  If that doesn’t sound like a lot, it is a big chunk of his total of 4:58 of power play ice time this season.

-- The win gives the Caps seven in a row, the first time they reached that mark since opening the 2011-2012 season with a seven-game streak.  It marks the sixth straight season in which the Caps have had a winning streak of seven or more games.  In addition to the two mentioned, they had a nine-game winning streak from February 26-March 15 in the 2010-2011 season, a 14-game streak from January 13-February 7 in the 2009-2010 season, a seven-game streak from December 23-January 6 in the 2008-2009 season, and a seven-game streak to close the 2007-2008 season.

In the end… There are two things to take away from this game, one good and one bad.  Obviously, the good thing is getting the two points when it looked as if the Caps would leave at least one of those points on the table with poor play in the third period.  The bad thing is that when a team is on a streak, good or bad, one can see the end of it before it happens.  The Caps almost lost a game to a team with nothing to play for but pride.  That is not an insignificant commodity, but the Caps do have a lot more to play for and should have shown a lot more urgency in their game in the third period than they displayed. 

In that respect, this is what a team looks like when a winning streak might be coming to an end.  They are going to have to play better and for the full 60 minutes when they face Toronto on Tuesday in what will be the start of a rough end of the season schedule.  The Leafs are 5-1-1 in their last seven games and will be a stiffer test than the Lightning, even if they will be coming to Washington the night after hosting the New Jersey Devils on Monday.  It’s time to put on the big boy pants and raise their game another notch.  This is not over yet.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR -- Game 42: Lightning at Capitals, April 13th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Six days ago, the Washington Capitals hosted the Tampa Bay Lightning and skated off with a come-from-behind 4-2 victory.  The win allowed the Caps to put two points of daylight between themselves and the Winnipeg Jets at the top of the Southeast Division.  Tonight, the Caps will play host to the Lighting once more in an effort to do the same, to put two more points of daylight between themselves and the idle Jets at the top of the Southeast.

The Lightning come into this game having not made much progress in the standings – in either direction – over the past week.  They split two games, a win against Ottawa and a loss to Pittsburgh, both at home.  This game begins a four-game road trip for the Lightning that, unless they sweep all four games, will not likely have much impact on their playoff fortunes.  Tampa Bay starts the trip eight points out of eighth place with eight games to play.

We hit the high points about the Lightning in last Sunday’s prognosto, and little has changed for the visitors…

“Tampa Bay comes to Washington stuck in a place they might not have thought they would be after a 6-1-0 start to the season in which they outscored opponents by a 37-18 margin.  Since then, the Lightning are 10-18-2, and they have won consecutive games in regulation time only once…”

… that record is now 11-20-2, and they are still searching for those consecutive wins.

“The Lightning are 1-4-0 over their last five road games, and their lone win came against the slumping Carolina Hurricanes…”

…that record is now 1-5-0, and yes, that lone win was against Carolina.

“What is unsurprising over those first four games of the [new head coach Jon] Cooper era is that Steven Stamkos and Martin St. Louis lead the Bolts in scoring.  Stamkos is 2-4-6, and St. Louis is 1-3-4 over those four contests…”

… Stamkos had a 1-1-0 week for a 3-5-8 scoring line in his seven games under Cooper, and St. Louis went 0-4-0 for a 1-7-8 line in those same seven games.

“But there are a couple of surprises in there, too.  One is that Alex Killorn has a pair of goals and a pair of assists to tie St. Louis in scoring over these four games.  Killorn has put together a respectable rookie season with the Lightning, going 6-10-16, plus-1, in 27 games with Tampa Bay after going 16-22-38, plus-6, in 44 games with Syracuse in the AHL…”

…Killorn had a goal against the Caps last Sunday and an assist in the loss to Pittsburgh, making him 7-11-18 in 30 games.  He is ninth in total points among rookies despite having played in at least five fewer games than the player ahead of him with the fewest appearances.

“The other surprise is not a pleasant one for Lightning fans.  After missing nine games with a broken foot, Vincent Lecavalier returned to the lineup on April 4th against Carolina.  He has but a single assist in the two games played since his return.  What is more, Lecavalier has only one goal in the last 13 games in which he appeared…”

…Lecavalier has a good week. He had a goal and an assist against both the Caps and the Senators before being held off the score sheet against Pittsburgh.  It allowed him to lift his season scoring line to 9-18-27 in 31 games.  That is appoints-per-game rate better than any season for Lecavalier since the 2007-2008 season when he finished with 92 points in 81 games.

Here is how the numbers for both teams compare…

1.  Stamkos and St. Louis are quite prolific at the offensive end…and quite leaky in the defensive end.  The rank third and seventh among forwards in goal scored against on ice.  Here is what is worse.  Neither kill penalties (they combine for 1:08 of PK ice time per game).  Stamkos has been on ice for 45 even strength goals against in 40 games, St. Louis for 41 even strength goals against.

2.  Tampa Bay certainly suffers from a lack of depth on defense.  Although plus-minus is often derided as a valuable metric, sometimes looking at how those values differ among teammates can shed light on a problem.  Sami Salo (plus-11) and Victor Hedman (plus-8) are the only Lightning defensemen having played in more than 15 games in plus territory.

3.  Back to Stamkos… he has more than twice as many even strength goals (17) as the next highest total for the Lightning (Tom Pyatt with eight).

4.  And again… Stamkos has those 26 goals to tie for the league lead, but only eight of them have been scored against Southeast Division teams.

5.  Only two teams – Florida and New Jersey (three apiece) – have fewer wins when giving up the first goal of games (four).

1.  Despite being held off the score sheet in Thursday’s game against Carolina, Alex Ovechkin remains on a tear.  His 16-6-22 scoring line over the last 14 games is a 94-35-129 scoring rate over 82 games.  This is probably unsustainable.

2. Nicklas Backstrom is on his own tear… 3-18-21 over those same 14 games works out to an 18-105-123 82-game pace.

3.  Troy Brouwer’s two-goal performance on Thursday against Carolina broke a five-game drought without a point.  Still, with 15 goals in 40 games, that’s a 31-goal 82-game pace.  Compare that to his career best of 22 goals with Chicago in 2009-2010.

4.  It’s unfortunate that the injury to Joel Ward came when it did.  With eight goals in 39 games (including two in his last four), he was on an 82-game pace (17) that would have been his best since setting a career-best 17 goals in 79 games of the 2008-2009 season with Nashville.

5.  You remember those days when defenseman Mike Green scored 50 goals over two seasons and was a Norris Trophy finalist (despite not being able to, well, play defense…according to all the smart people in hockey)?  Well, his nine goals in 28 games is a 26-goal pace over 82 games, right in the ball park with his career best 31 goals in 68 games in 2008-2009.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Benoit Pouliot

Benoit Pouliot is a bit of an odd duck with respect to this game.  He is tied for second on the Lightning in goals scored against teams in the Southeast Division.  He has, by far, the best intra-division plus-minus (plus-14).  In his last three games ending with last Sunday’s loss to Washington he was 1-2-3 in three games.  But he has been scratched the last two games for Tampa Bay – a healthy scratch.  He might be a victim of the coaching change in that Jon Cooper wants to get a look at some youngsters in the NHL setting.  And although Pouliot has had success against the Southeast this season, he is only 1-1-2 in 13 career games against the Caps (scoreless in one game this season). 

Washington:  Eric Fehr

With all the attention being paid to Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Mike Green on the scoring front, it might escape notice that Eric Fehr is 1-0-1 over his last 15 games.  He has, to say the least, been streaky all year.  He opened the 2013 season without a point in his first eight games, then went 6-6-12 over his next 11 games before this 15 game drought.  His lone point in the last 15 games came on a goal against Montreal on Tuesday, so perhaps he is emerging from this streak and starting another.  He is 7-1-8 in 24 career games against Tampa Bay (scoreless in one game this season).

Keys:

1.  Score early.  Tampa Bay is 4-16-2 when allowing the first goal. Only three teams have a worse winning percentage when allowing that first goal.

2.  Let’s all go the lobby…let’s all go to the lobby… but not too early.  Tampa Bay is 1-11-2 when trailing at the  first intermission, 2-16-2 when trailing after 40 minutes.  The Caps need to make sure that they are going into intermissions strong…no late period goals allowed.

3.  Win the five-on-five by defending the five-on-five.  Tampa Bay has eaten teams up at five-on-five, at least scoring-wise.  Only Chicago has more five-on-five goals (92) than does Tampa Bay (90).  Overall, it has given the Lightning a plus-13 goal differential at five-on-five.  By way of comparison, the Caps are only plus-4.

In the end…

Tampa Bay is in that twilight part of their season.  Close enough to eighth place that a sustained winning streak could lift them into playoff contention, yet far enough behind the pack where the temptation is there to give more youngsters more time and responsibility to see what they can do.  This being a divisional game, though, one suspects the Lightning – from the coach down to the trainer – would like nothing better than to stick a needle in the Caps’ playoff balloon.  This is no “take it for granted” game.

Capitals 4 – Lightning 2

A TWO-point night -- Game 41: Capitals 3 - Hurricanes 1

Over the course of a winning streak there will be some games won with flash, and there will be others you will grind out.  The Washington Capitals won their sixth consecutive game last night in the latter fashion, grinding out a 3-1 win over the Carolina Hurricanes. 

Carolina opened the scoring on a power play when Jeff Skinner avoided an attempted stick check by John Carlson to swat home a rebound of an Eric Staal shot at the 5:01 mark of the first period.  That is how things remained until mid-way into the second period when the Caps returned the favor on their own power play.

It started with Mike Green holding the puck in the offensive zone at the right point.  Green fed Nicklas Backstrom along the right wing wall.  Backstrom edged up the wall and fed Troy Brouwer in the middle of the 1-3-1.  Brouwer slid the puck down to Mike Ribeiro at the goal line, where Ribeiro had options.  His first option was Alex Ovechkin, but Tim Gleason had his stick down and in the passing lane, and Eric Staal was cheating to that side of the ice.  With only Justin Faulk defending the other options on that side of the ice and swiveling around, undecided as to how to defend those options, Ribeiro returned the puck to Brouwer, who one-timed it past goalie Justin Peters to tie the game.

Less than three minutes later, Mike Green gave the Caps the lead on a play that was a total breakdown by Carolina. Jay Beagle fed a pass from the Olympia Corner to Green at the far right point.  Green used Jeff Skinner as a skating pylon, circling around the Carolina forward toward the Hurricanes’ net.  Once past Skinner, who could only wave his stick at Green as he was sailing by, Green had an almost scot-free path to the net.  Before Jordan Staal could close the distance, Green snapped the puck from the right wing faceoff dot to the long side, over Peters’ blocker, and into the back of the net.

 photo: CSNWashington video

After that, the game was in the hands of goalie Braden Holtby, returning to the Capitals’ net after a two-game respite.  Holtby was up to the task, stopping all 16 shots he faced in the third period, giving Troy Brouwer an opportunity to put the finishing touches on the win with an empty-net goal with six seconds left for the final 3-1 margin.

Other stuff…

-- Good thing Holtby got some rest.  The 43 saves he recorded was not just a season high (surpassing the 38 he made in a 2-1 loss to the New York Rangers on February 17^th), it was a career regular season high for him, topping the 40 saves he made against these same Carolina Hurricanes in a 2-1 Capitals win on March 11, 2011.  The only career game in which Holtby made more saves was on May 2, 2012, when he made 47 saves in a 2-1 triple-overtime loss to the Rangers in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference semi-finals.

-- Alex Ovechkin managed six shots on goal (15 total attempts), but none of them went in, breaking his goal-scoring streak at three games.  Also without an assist, his points streak ended at three games as well.  But in that photo above, note that he is right there, looking to redirect whatever is coming off Green's stick.  It's the "new" Alex.

-- On the other hand, Nicklas Backstrom streaks on.  He recorded an assist on the first Troy Brouwer goal, making it points in eight straight games.

-- Brouwer’s two-goal night was his first since getting a pair against the Florida Panthers in a 5-0 Capitals win back on February 9^th.

--  Wolski Sighting!!  Wojtek Wolski recorded an assist on Mike Green’s goal, breaking a five game streak without a point.  It was the only mark on his score sheet in 7:09 of ice time, a team low in this game.

--  Is a “Brouwer Hat Trick” a goal (he had two), a hit (he had five to lead the team), and a faceoff win (he was 2-for-4)?

-- There were 63 faceoffs in this game.  A Staal took 52 of them for Carolina (Eric was 14-for-27, Jordan was 13-for-25).

-- Marcus Johansson and Jeff Skinner going off for coincidental roughing calls is a bit like the midget wrestling undercard in the old days waiting for the big guys to come out.

-- The Caps were lucky in one important respect.  In just 1:59 of power play time Carolina managed to record eight shots on goal.  Well, maybe not “lucky” so much as “Holtby,” even though one did get through.

-- When Matt Hendricks dropped the mitts with Nicolas Blanchard in the second period, it was the first time he engaged in the pugilistic arts since he was challenged twice in a 4-1 loss to Boston on March 16^th.  Fans of such things will be quick to remind that the Caps scored what would be the game-winning goal barely two minutes later.

-- The assist by Mike Ribeiro makes four points in his last four games, an indication he is coming out of his slump that saw him record only one point in six games up to and a game past the trading deadline.  Perhaps more important, it was the way he got that assist, using a slick stickhandling move to work the puck around Justin Faulk from the goal line extended to feed Troy Brouwer for one-timer from the slot.  The Caps will need more of that going forward.

In the end, the Caps are marking time again, but in a good way.  The win kept Winnipeg from closing the two-point distance by which they trail the Caps.  And with the games dwindling to a precious few with which to make up that distance (including one with the Caps), the Jets are the team needed help.  Meanwhile, the Caps need only to do what they have been doing…taking care of their own business.