The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 46: Jets at Capitals, April 23rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

This is it, the most important “most important” game of the season, the game that will in all likelihood decide who wins the Southeast Division for the last time, who goes to the playoffs and…

“L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-LET’S GET READY TO FACE-OFFFFFFFFFFFFF!!!”

Cheerless, what are you doing?

“I wuz just doin’ that thing that that guy does at those fights.”

You mean Michael Buffer.

"That’s his name?"

Yes, Cheerless, it is.  And what are you trying to do, get a gig as an announcer for hockey games?

“L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-LET’S GET READY TO HIP CHE-E-E-E-E-E-CK!!!”

It doesn’t seem to have quite the same feel.

“Mebbe I need a new catchy ending…”L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-LET’S GET READY TO CHANGE ON THE FLYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!”

I don’t think that’s going to work, either.

“L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-LETS’S GET READY TO DUMP AND

CHA-A-A-A-A-A-SE!!!”

Nope.

“L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-LET’S GET READY TO SCREEN THE GOALIE!!!”

This isn’t working, Cheerless.

“There’s gotta be a good one in there somewhere.”

You keep working on it, cousin.  Meanwhile, there is something of a rumble on F Street on Tuesday night, the Winnipeg Jets coming to town in desperation mode to face the team they are chasing, the Washington Capitals, for a spot in the post-season.

This will be the first time that the Jets visited Washington since Game 2 of the season, back on January 22^nd.  You might remember, dear reader (then again, you might not wish to), that on that night the Jets spotted the Caps a first period goal to open the game, then scored a pair of their own late in the first period and another pair in the second period to take a 4-1 lead.  Some window dressing by Troy Brouwer on a power play with less than two minutes left made things a bit more respectable, but it was still a disappointing 4-2 loss to Winnipeg in what would be what is now the famous “2-8-1 start” for the Capitals’ 2013 season.  It happened to be the first time the Caps lost a home opener in 13 years, a game played so long ago that head coach Adam Oates actually played in it and recorded an assist.

Well, guess the shoe is on the other foot, now.  On March 16^th the Jets hit their high-water mark for the first time, four games over .500 and sitting on top of the Southeast Division.  But good fortune did not seem to agree with Winnipeg, which promptly went into a spin.  Over their next 11 games they went 3-8-0 and not only fell out of the Southeast Division lead, but tumbled all the way to tenth place in the Eastern Conference. 

The Jets have righted themselves since their misfortune, but it might be too little, too late.  Even having gone 5-0-1 over their last six games going into their Monday night game against Buffalo, the Jets found themselves three points behind the Caps in the Southeast and three points behind the New York Rangers and Ottawa Senators, each of whom is tied for seventh place in the Eastern Conference with just two games to play after that Monday night game in Buffalo.

Guess you could say this game is big for the Jets.  But they do come into in on a roll.  The Jets have outscored their opponents by a 26-14  margin over the six games leading up to Monday night.  Special teams have been a bit mixed over this stretch.  The power play is 4-for-21 (19.0 percent), but has power play goals in four straight games.  Meanwhile, the penalty killers have been superb, going 15-for-15 (100.0 percent).

The Jets’ recent success is largely a product of their line of Bryan Little, Andrew Ladd, and Blake Wheeler.  The three have combined for nine of the 26 goals scored over this period.  Individually, their scoring lines are impressive.  Ladd leads in scoring over the last seven games (4-9-13), while Wheeler (3-8-11) and Little (2-8-10) are not far behind.

Ondrej Pavelec has been the goaltender of record for the last 10 games.  Over those last 10 games he is 5-4-1, 2.87, .903.  And, he might be showing signs of overwork.  He experienced an almost uninterrupted run of increased goals allowed over his last six games going into Monday night (one, one, two, three, three, four) and a similar drop in game save percentages (.968, .967, .926, .889, .889, .879).

Here is how the teams compare overall (through games of Sunday):

1.  Winnipeg has the second worst spread between home penalty killing (86.4 percent) and road penalty killing (74.2 percent) – 12.2 points.  Only Colorado is worse (92.1 percent at home, 70.0 percent on the road – 22.1 points).

2.  Winnipeg once had one of the best road records in the league.  On March 26^th they were 10-6-2 away from MTS Centre.  However, going into their game in Buffalo on Monday they have lost their last four road games by a combined score of 17-5.

3.  Winnipeg is nicked up.  Based on the injury report available at TSN.ca, as of Monday (before the Jets’ game against Buffalo), 19 of the Jets’ 119 goals this season would be on the bench, including two of their best defensemen in Tobias Enstrom and Zach Bogosian. 

4.  Winnipeg suffers from being weak late in games.  Only Carolina has allowed more third period goals this season than the Jets’ 53 goals allowed, and Winnipeg’s goal differential in the third period (minus-20) is worst in the league.  Only Philadelphia is close at minus-18.  Carolina is third-worst at minus-12.

5.  Given that last point, it seems odd that the Jets have the third highest win total when leading after two periods (18, tied with Washington).  They are 18-1-0.  Ah, but if they trail at the second intermission?  They are 1-13-0, the .071 winning percentage being third-worst in the league.

1.  The Caps come into this game having posted two power play goals in three of their last four contests and are 7-for-18 going back to the second period of their 3-1 win against Carolina on April 11^th.  The Caps have recorded at least two power play goals in 10 of their 45 games this season.

2.  The penalty killers are improving for Washington.  After starting the month of April 9-for-14 in their first six games (64.3 percent), they are 13-for-13 in their last four games (100.0 percent).

3.  Alex Ovechkin is back in his accustomed place in shots on goal – first in the league (208) – but he has sustained a healthy shooting percentage in doing so.  His 14.4 percent shooting percentage is very near his career best – 14.6 percent – set in his record-setting 65-goal season in 2007-2008.

4.  The same goes for Mike Green.  Not in shots (he ranks only in a tie for 25^th among defensemen with 80 shots on goal), but in shooting percentage.  His 12.5 percent is very near his career high of 12.8 percent set in his 31-goal year of 2008-2009.

5.  At the other end of the shooting percentage scale, Jason Chimera ranks 271^st among 274 ranked forwards in shooting percentage – 2.4 percent (two goals on 84 shots).  For him to have as many goals as Ovechkin with that shooting percentage, he would have had to record 1,260 shots.  That would be a record.

The Peerless Players to Ponder

Winnipeg: Ondrej Pavelec

This is an “all hands on deck” game for the Jets, and that means that Ondrej Pavelec would appear a near lock to get the back-to-back assignment in goal for Winnipeg.  He was superb last night in the Jets’ 2-1 win in Buffalo, reversing a recent trend of more and more goals allowed in games.  It is not as if it would be new to him, though.  Part of being second in the league in minutes played among goaltenders is playing back-to-back games.  The trouble for the Jets, though, is that he has not done well in the second half of those back-to-back games.  In six games that were the back-half of back-to-back games, Pavelec is 2-4-0, 4.15, .877, and he was pulled from games twice – once on February 1^st in an 8-3 loss to Tampa Bay (five goals on 14 shots in 24 minutes) and again on March 22^nd  in a 6-1 loss to the Caps (three goals on nine shots in 25 minutes).  Whether the Caps clinch or Winnipeg takes over the Southeast Division lead is going to depend largely on whether Pavelec can muster up one more superior effort in a situation in which he has struggled.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

The pressure is on Alex Ovechkin, too.  There is the cosmetic factor of this game being a “statement” game for his Hart Trophy candidacy as the league’s most valuable player.  But as a practical matter, he is the captain.  He is the finisher, the player expected to rise to the occasion in a game that could settle the matter of making the playoffs.  If Ovechkin has a big night, you can bet that the Caps will be celebrating by about 10:00 this evening.  If he doesn’t…

Keys:

1.  Floor it!  One gets the feeling that Winnipeg left a lot on the ice in Buffalo last night.  They pounded goalie Jhonas Enroth with 39 shots (and still managed to get only two by him).  They held Buffalo to 47 shot attempts.  There was a lot of effort expended last night, and the Jets’ legs might not be there.  Push them early.

2.  Big time players in big time games.  The Caps have been carried during their resurgence, in large part, by the big guns – Ovechkin, Green, Nicklas Backstrom.  They need to step up as if this is a playoff game, because frankly, it is.

3.  Save the Mister Softee for the ice cream.  Braden Holtby does not need to be spectacular.  He needs not to suffer the lapses he did against Ottawa – a soft goal and a giveaway.  Maybe imagine that the Jets are the Canadiens…

In the end…

Capitals 4 – Jets 2

Washington Capitals -- That Was The Week That Was: Week 13

The Washington Capitals did what needed to be done in the week that was.  They started this past week leading the Southeast Division and finished it that way.  And that really is the whole object of the exercise. at this point of the season  How did they get there?  Let us take a look.

Record: 2-1-0

The Caps went into the week having to face three playoff-eligible teams.  They came out of it with two wins and within a goaltending lapse and a couple of bounces from gaining at least a point in the third game.  It is part of a trend that started back in early February.  When the Caps lost on that night to the Pittsburgh Penguins, here were the standings:

Fast forward to now.  Here are the records and standings of the teams in the Eastern Conference since that night (through games of Saturday):

The Caps have had ten straight non-losing weeks.  If they have one more, they will play in the post season.

Offense: 3.67 (season: 3.04 / rank: 5^th)

Five goals was a popular total this week.  The Caps put up five goals in two of the three games and did it in the same fashion.  Get a lead, pour it on in the second period, and end the competitive portion of the game early.  Washington took a lead into the first intermission in both wins this week, 1-0 over Toronto and 2-0 over Montreal.  Then, they added three in their game against Toronto in the second period, two in their game against Montreal.  By the time the third period rolled around, 4-0 leads in both games were too much for Toronto or Montreal to dent.  In the loss, the Caps were held to a scoreless tie by Ottawa in the first period and managed only a fluky goal scored in the second period as a product of amazing hand-eye coordination by both the passer (Martin Erat) and the scorer (Mike Ribeiro) against the Senators.  For the week, Alex Ovechkin and Troy Brouwer had three goals apiece to lead the club, while Mike Ribeiro led the Caps in overall scoring, going 1-5-6.

Defense: 1.67 (season: 2.73 / rank: 19^th)

There was the good and the bad here.  Overall the shot totals wrote a new verse in a continuing theme with this team this year – a lot of shots allowed.  Opponents recorded 104 shots in the three games (34.7), slightly higher than the Caps’ average for the season coming into the week (32.0).  But the Caps did a pretty good job of capping teams early.  In the two wins for the week the Caps held the Maple Leafs to eight shots in the first period and the Canadiens to nine.  Even against Ottawa, the game the Caps lost, the Senators had 11 shots on goal, not an excessive number for a single period.  However, the Caps were a lot more porous, shots-wise, in the second and third periods of all three games – 22 allowed to Toronto, 27 to Ottawa, and 27 to Montreal.  The good thing here is that the totals against Toronto and Montreal might reflect score effects, the Caps holding leads in those two games after one period.  Against Ottawa, they just looked a half-step behind.

Goaltending: 1.34 / .961 (season: 2.68 / .917 / 4 shutouts)

It was Braden Holtby’s week once more.  And Holtby seems to be ramping up his game in advance of the playoffs.  The .961 save percentage was impressive enough, but he got his ornery on in the last game of the week, flattening Montreal’s Travis Moen as the latter was taking an aggressive tack toward Holtby’s crease.  Holtby’s season mirrors that of the Caps as a whole, unsurprising since Holtby has appeared in 34 of the Caps’ 45 games.  By that we mean his season is really two seasons, one being up to February 7^th and that 2-8-1 team record, and the post-February 7^th portion of the season. 

In the former, Holtby was 1-4-0, 4.73, .857.  But since then he is 20-8-1, 2.27, .930, with four shutouts.  Here is how impressive that post-February 7^th record is.  In terms of current rankings his goals against average would rank 14^th, but that is largely a product of having faced 32.5 shots per game in that span.  His .930 save percentage would rank third, behind only Craig Anderson (.944) and tied with Sergei Bobrovsky (.930).  He will not be in the Vezina conversation at regular season’s end, but it would be hard to find a goaltender playing better going into the post-season.

Power Play: 4-12 / 33.3 percent (season: 26.1 percent /rank 1^st)

“Efficiency” was the word to describe the Caps’ power play this week.  Well, at least in the wins.  In the two wins for the week the Caps were 4-for-9 overall in just 12:00 of power play time, and they scored those four goals on ten power play shots.  Against Ottawa the Caps were 0-for-3 overall and managed only four unsuccessful shots in 4:20 of power play time.  Here is the odd number of the week for the power play: “four.”  Mike Green recorded assists on all four power play goals for the week.  Three of them were primary assists.  And here is your bonus odd number: “16.”  With two power play goals, Alex Ovechkin now has 16 for the season, far ahead of the second place total (Steven Stamkos: 10).  Ovechkin is one of only 10 players in NHL history with five or more seasons with 16 or more power play goals.  He trails only Teemu Selanne (six seasons) among active players.

Penalty Killing: 11-for-11 / 100.0 percent (season: 77.8 percent / rank: 28^th)

All of a sudden, the Caps can kill penalties.  The 11-for-11 week extended a run for the Caps that has reached 15-for-15 going back to their April 11^th game against Carolina.  And, the Caps have four straight games in which they killed off all the shorthanded situations they faced.  That is not an especially long streak, but consider this.  Ottawa leads the NHL in penalty killing (87.9 percent).  Their longest streak of games without allowing a power play goal is four.  You have to start being good somewhere, and now is as good a time as any.

Hits/Blocked Shots: 74 / 47 (season rank: 20^th / 8^th)

The number of note here is the blocked shots number.  A drop of 24 from the previous week looks rather significant, but what influenced that result was what the Caps did to Toronto.  Washington had only nine blocked shots in that game, but then again, the Maple Leafs had only 47 total shot attempts for the game.  And that was an odd game in that no Capital had more than one blocked shot. For the week, John Carlson had almost 20 percent of the total number of blocked shots (nine) and had six against Montreal alone.

Faceoffs: 86-188 / 45.7 percent (season: 50.3 percent / rank: T-14^th)

It was not a very good week in the circle.  The most noteworthy single fact about the week is that in the Caps’ 3-1 loss to Ottawa they won only three of 14 offensive zone draws, none of the wins coming from anyone by Nicklas Backstrom (3-for-7).  It was part of a week in which the Caps were just 25-for-61 on offensive zone draws (41.0 percent).  It is merely anecdotal, but one thinks about how the Caps scored almost effortlessly against Montreal (or perhaps more precisely, with lack of effort from Canadiens goaltender Carey Price) when Mike Ribeiro won a draw, Karl Alzner collected the puck, and Troy Brouwer scored off a feed from Alzner – all in a space of six seconds – to know that such things can be important.

Turnovers: plus-2

It was not an especially noteworthy week, good or bad, save for one turnover.  With the Caps and Senators tied, 1-1, midway through the second period, Braden Holtby chose that moment to send a wayward pass past the outstretched stick of Karl Alzner and onto the stick of Cory Conacher.  Two seconds later, the Senators capitalized on the giveaway and had what would be their game-winning goal.  As much as the how many, sometimes it is the “how” that will do a team in or put them over the top.

In the end…

The Caps had another good week. They cannot do anything about the fact that Winnipeg closed the gap on the Caps with a five-point week of their own.  The Caps can only take care of their own business.  And how they have done that is be being methodical, efficient, and consistent.  They will lose games from time to time, as they did this past week to Ottawa, but the trick now is not to let a loss become a streak. 

The Caps, for example, have not lost consecutive games in regulation since dropping their third in a row on March 12^th.  Since then they are 15-4-1.  That is a recipe to close the deal if they continue that trend this coming week, a week in which their business and that of Winnipeg will intersect.  The Caps can clinch the Southeast Division and a top-three seed in the playoffs with a win over the Jets – a win in regulation if the Jets defeat Buffalo on Monday, a win of any kind if the Jets lose to the the Sabres on Monday.

A TWO-point night -- Game 45: Capitals 5 - Canadiens 1

The trick at this time of year, as much as avoiding losses altogether when you cling to a small lead for a playoff spot, is avoiding making two out of one.  The Washington Capitals shook off their loss to the Ottawa Senators on Thursday and throttled the Montreal Canadiens in their own building, besting the Canadiens, 5-1, at Bell Centre.

There are nights, like last Thursday, when hockey just looks so hard.  And then there are nights when it looks easy.  Not to say it is so, just that when the skill guys are on their game, when the defenders are being smart without being passive, when the goaltending is sharp, it just looks, well…easy.  Tonight was one of those nights.

The Caps came into this game having won five straight games on Montreal ice and served notice on the Canadiens that Washington’s recent success at Bell Centre would not be coming to an end on this night.  The Caps scored two goals barely a minute apart early in the first period.   The first came when Montreal’s P.K. Subban tried to feed the puck up ice from behind the Canadiens’ net.  His pass hit Nicklas Backstrom and caromed onto the stick of Alex Ovechkin.  Cutting across the grain, he avoided Tomas Plekanec, then rifled a wrist shot through Carey Price on the Caps’ first shot of the contest at 4:49.

Just 68 seconds later, the Caps struck again, this time finishing a won faceoff.  Mike Ribeiro beat Lars Eller on the draw to the right of Price.  The puck skittered out to Karl Alzner, who settled it and fed it to Troy Brouwer circling out of the corner.  Brouwer took the pass in stride and sent an off-pace shot from the top of the left wing circle that Price could not solve.  The Caps had a two-goal lead just 5:57 into the game.

The Caps added a pair in the second period, and early was the theme again.  Brouwer recorded his second of the game just 3:49 into the period, finishing the job that Mike Ribeiro and Marcus Johansson started.  Ribeiro fought Francis Bouillon to a draw for a loose puck in the corner to Price’s left.  It allowed Johansson to step in, grab the puck, and find Brouwer in the high slot uncovered.  Brouwer slammed the puck past Price’s blocker, and it was 3-0. 

Four minutes later it was Nicklas Backstrom finishing a slick sequence on a power play.  Mike Riberiro started the around the horn play, feeding Mike Green at the top of the zone from the right wing wall.  Green fed the puck to Alex Ovechkin at the left wing wall, and Ovechkin, rather than taking the shot, feathered a pass through the box to Backstrom at the far post.  Backstrom redirected the puck up and off the post and into the top corner of the net behind Price to put the Caps up, 4-0.

Washington finished off their scoring in the 14^th minute of the third period when, on a power play, Mike Green fed Ovechkin for a one-timer that blew past Price in the blink of an eye.  Montreal broke Braden Hotlby’s bid for his fifth shutout of the season when Max Pacioretty scored at 14:51.  That was all the Canadiens could manage, though, the last seconds ticking off in a deathly silent Bell Centre, the Caps’ home away from home.

Other stuff…

-- The win extends to eight the streak the Caps are on at Bell Centre without having lost in regulation time (7-0-1).  The last time the Caps lost to Montreal in regulation time at Bell Centre in the regular season was January 10, 2009, a 5-4 loss.  Caps fans might remember that loss as having cost then head coach Bruce Boudreau the chance to serve as an assistant coach in the 2009 NHL All Star Game.

-- The shot total for Montreal might look bad to Caps fans – 36 – but not in the context of the game.  Montreal managed only 21 shots in the first 40 minutes, getting 15 in the third period when the contest had been largely decided.

-- It’s Braden Holtby’s crease, and you trespass at your peril.  Travis Moen found that out when he carried the puck toward the Caps’ net. through the right wing faceoff circle  Moen had no apparent scoring chance on the play, since he was being defended by Jack Hillen on the inside of his route to the net, but it did not prevent him from making a charge to the cage, and Holtby flattened him with his blocker as he went by, sending both Moen and Hillen into the end boards.  He reached back past Olaf Kolzig to channel his inner Billy Smith on that one.

-- The Caps had five players with multi-point games, and one could argue they were the right ones – Alex Ovechkin (2-1-3), Mike Ribeiro (0-3-3), Nicklas Backstrom (1-1-2), Troy Brouwer (2-0-2), and Mike Green (0-2-2).

-- For Ribeiro, the three assists extended his scoring streak to five games.  He is 2-10-12 over his last eight games.

-- The two goals for Ovechkin make four multi-goal games in his last ten contests.  He has 20 goals over his last 18 games.  He also reached 30 goals for the eighth time in eight seasons.  Only four active players have more 30-goal seasons over their careers: Jaromir Jagr (15), Jarome Iginla (11), Teemu Selanne (10), and Ilya Kovalchuk (9).  His power play goal gave him 16 on the season, one of only 10 players in NHL history with five or more seasons with 16 or more power play goals.  He trails only Selanne (six seasons) among active players.

-- Green’s two assists makes him one of only two defensemen in the league in double digits in both goals and assists.  P.K. Subban is the other one.

-- Backstrom’s goal and assist gave him his seventh multi-point game in his last 18 contests.  He is 4-20-24 in those 18 games.

-- Montreal had five power plays on the night.  It was the first time the Caps faced that many shorthanded situations since they faced five against Winnipeg on March 22^nd.

-- Speaking of penalty killing, the Caps were 5-for-5 tonight, making the penalty killers perfect over their last four games (13-for-13).

-- The Caps had three power plays on the night, four shots on goal, and two goals in only 2:46 of power play time.  Very efficient.  Washington has recorded two power play goals in three of their last four games and are 7-for-18 (38.9 percent) going back to the second period of their 3-1 win over Carolina on April 11^th.

-- Troy Brouwer’s two goals give him 19 on the season, his second highest goal total for a season in his career, topped only by his 22 goals with Chicago in 2009-2010.  His 19.2 percent shooting percentage is a career best.

-- Every Montreal skater had at least one shot on goal, except one – Rene Bourque.

-- The Caps finished the road portion of their season on an 8-1-1 run.

In the end, the Caps are now on the brink of clinching a playoff spot.  They hold a three-point lead over the Winnipeg Jets, who lost to the New York Islanders in overtime earlier today.  Winnipeg will play in Buffalo on Monday night before visiting Washington on Tuesday evening.  Even if Winnipeg wins in Buffalo, the Caps can clinch the Southeast Division with a win in regulation on Tuesday.  And that is a place the Caps – 12-2-1 over their last 15 games – have worked hard to claim. 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 45: Capitals at Canadiens, April 20th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well here we are.  The last road game of the season.  The regular season.  On Saturday, with four games left in the regular season, the Washington Capitals will visit the Montreal Canadiens.  By the time the Caps take the ice, they could find themselves hanging on to a playoff spot by the thinnest of threads.  The Rangers demolished Buffalo last night to move to 50 points, the same total the Caps hold at the moment.

Meanwhile, the Winnipeg Jets, two points behind the Caps as we write this, will have played on Saturday afternoon, hosting the New York Islanders.  If they win, they will trail Washington as the Caps take the ice only by a tiebreaker, the Caps having played one fewer game with the same number of points.

The last time the Capitals played a final road game of the season with this much at stake was in 2008.  Coincidentally, that last road game – against the Florida Panthers – came with four games left in the season.  It was March 29, 2008, and the Caps were on the outside looking in, two points behind the Boston Bruins for eighth place in the Eastern Conference and four points behind Carolina in the Southeast Division.

The Caps, then as now, were on quite a run.  They had won three in a row and were 11-4-0 in their previous 14 games.  It looked a lot like the current team, one that just had an eight-game winning streak stopped, but one that is still 12-2-1 in their last 15 games.

The Caps ground out a 3-0 win that night in 2008, led by a couple of familiar faces.  Mike Green scored his 18^th goal of the season after Viktor Kozlov gave the Caps a 1-0 second period lead, and Alex Ovechkin put the icing on the cake with his 62^nd goal of the season midway through the third period.  Fast forward to now and there is Mike Green with seven goals in his last 11 games, and there is Alex Ovechkin with 18 goals in his last 17 games.

The Capitals could use some of that lightning striking twice as they face the Montreal Canadiens.  Montreal lost to the Caps, 3-2, back on April 9^th, and since then they have run into a rut.  Just as bad as their 2-3-0 record has been since that game, it is the way they lost games.  Sandwiched between wins in Buffalo and against Tampa Bay, Montreal lost three games by a combined score of 18-8.  In all three games coach Michel Therrien pulled his starting goaltender:

• In their 5-1 loss to Toronto, Carey Price lasted 10:25 and allowed three goals on four shots before being relieved by Peter Budaj.
• In their 7-3 loss to Philadelphia, Price lasted two periods, but he allowed six goals on 29 shots.  Budaj mopped up in the third period.
• Then, in their 6-4 loss to Pittsburgh, it was Budaj’s turn to be shelled early, allowing three goals on nine shots in the first period, giving way to Price for the final 40 minutes.

Over those three losses, Montreal’s goaltending statistics went like this:

Here is how the teams compare overall…

1.  Since the teams last met, Max Pacioretty leads the team in overall scoring (1-5-6) and assists, while Alex Galyenchuk leads in goals (four).

2.  In those five games, the Montreal power play, which had but one opportunity against the Caps (unsuccessful), has gone 5-for-27 (18.5 percent).  The penalty kill is 16-for-22 (72.7 percent) and has allowed at least one goal in four straight games.

3.  Over the five games, Montreal scored first in two of them and won.  In the other three – all losses – the Canadiens not only fell behind, the fell behind big.  Toronto opened up a 3-0 lead before coasting to a 5-1 win. Philadelphia scored twice before Montreal got on the board and let the Canadiens tie the game before pulling away to a 7-3 win.  Against Pittsburgh, Montreal fell behind 4-0 before falling, 6-4.

4.  Montreal enjoyed a large advantage in shots on goal, outshooting opponents by a 177-139 margin over the five games.  However, 27 shots of that 38 shot margin game in the Canadiens’ 5-1 win over Buffalo, outshooting the Sabres, 42-15.

5.  The Canadiens have not played well with others over the five games.  Five different players have ten or more penalty minutes in the five games (P.K. Subban: 25; Ryan White: 15, plus a five-game suspension for a head shot on the Flyers’ Kent Huskins; Lars Eller: 15; Brandon Prust: 14; and Brendan Gallagher: 10).  When Rene Bourque is only tied for seventh on the club in penalty minutes over the five games, that should be proof enough that Montreal has been busy.

1.  The Caps have played four games since last facing the Canadiens. In that time, Mike Ribeiro leads the club in total scoring (1-5-6) and in assists.  Troy Brouwer has four goals in those five games to lead the club.

2.  Special teams for the Caps have been pretty special over these four games.  The power play was 5-for-18 in those four games (27.8 percent).  Mewanwhile, the power play is 10-for-11 (90.9 percent).

3.  The Caps’ problem, if there was one in going 3-1-0 in these four games, was lack of finish. The Caps did well enough early, scoring 12 of their 15 goals in the four games over the first and second periods.  But of the 10 goals they allowed in the four games, nine of them came in the second and third periods.

4.  The Caps have had issues with shots on goal allowed all season.  Only Edmonton and Buffalo have allowed more than the 32.1 per game allowed by Washington.  But in the last four games this problem has become more pronounced – 152 total shots on goal against.  The Caps were out shot on a per-game basis, 38-31.

5.  The Caps are in the middle of the pack when it comes to shorthanded situations faced (148, tied for 17^th fewest).  But they are on a bit of a run of stinginess lately.  In 11 of their last 13 games they faced three or fewer such situations.  They are 9-2-0 in those games.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Montreal: Alex Galchenyuk

Alex Galchenyuk – last June’s third overall pick in the entry draft – likes his home cooking.  In 23 home games played he has scored six of his nine goals on the season.  Overall he is 6-11-17 at home against 3-4-7 on the road (21 games).  He is plus-9 at home, plus-2 on the road.  He has points in his last five games, going 4-2-6, plus-1 overall.  That includes a pair of assists against the Caps in their meeting on April 9^th, his only career meeting against the Caps.  And it is not as if he is doing it with a lot of ice time; he has averaged about ten and a half minutes of ice time in those five home games.

Washington: Karl Alzner

Karl Alzner is in a place in which neither he nor Capitals fans are accustomed to seeing him.  Over the last seven games played by the Caps, Alzner has been on ice for 10 of the 17 goals scored against and is a minus-7.  He is minus-10 over his last 13 games overall.  For a player being counted on as perhaps being the shutdown defenseman for the Caps, these are not happy numbers.  Defensive defensemen have slumps every bit as much as scoring forwards, and this is likely one of those instances.  Still, it would be better – a lot better – for the Caps if this slump was short-lived.

Keys:

Hey, the Caps won here last time, so we’ll go with the same keys we wrote of for that visit.

In the end, when you stand at the edge of the cliff with your back to the chasm below, you have to fight yourself off the edge.  That is where the Caps find themselves.  They control their own destiny.  If they win four games, they are in the playoffs, no matter what Winnipeg or the Rangers do.  Winning four games would not seem likely, but getting a win in their last road game would go a long way toward getting to that playoff goal. 

Capitals 3 – Canadiens 2

A NO-point night -- Game 44: Senators 3 - Capitals 1

Sometimes, it is really quite simple.  Sometimes, a game is just a matter of which team imposes its will upon it, which team is able to play its style so completely that its opponent never has a chance to express its own style.  You realize rather quickly in such games that it is not going to be your team’s night.

Such was the case last night as the Ottawa Senators ended the Washington Capitals’ eight game winning streak with a 3-1 victory.  The Caps started slowly, taking two early penalties and letting Ottawa settle into a sort of game that would be deliberate, defensive, and dull (at least in the Ottawa end of the ice).  It made for a frustrating period for the Caps, who didn’t record their first shot on goal until 5:25 had expired and who would put only four shots on goalie Craig Anderson in the period.

Putting the first period in the deep freeze suited the home team just fine, and it seemed to lull Caps goalie Braden Holtby into something of a stupor.  When Kyle Turris scored 75 seconds into the second period on a shot the Holtby whiffed on with his blocker, it looked as if perhaps Holtby had not quite come all the way back from the intermission.

Mike Ribeiro evened the game midway through the period when he finished an odd play.  Ribeiro started the play when he fed the puck from the goal line out to Steve Oleksy at the right point.  Oleksy sped it around to Jack Hillen at the other point, and Hillen relayed it to Martin Erat low in the left wing circle.  Hillen’s pass was a bumpy one, and Erat could not receive it cleanly.  But Erat did manage to settle it well enough take a whack at the bouncing puck, sending it on its way toward the Senators’ crease.  From there, Ribiero took a swing at the jumpy puck and got enough of it to chip it past Anderson on the far side to tie the game.

The tie lasted barely two minutes.  Once more, it was Holtby who was his own worst enemy.  Turris started an innocent play with a backhand dump in from the Capitals’ blue line.  Holtby settled the puck behind his own net, turned, and tried to feed it to defenseman Karl Alzner at the low edge of the faceoff circle to his left.  His pass was off the mark though, out of Alzner’s reach and right onto the stick of Cory Conacher.  Holtby could not retreat to his net fast enough, making it only to the post in time to fish the puck out of the back of the net after Conacher put it there.

After that it was merely a matter of the Senators choking what life there was left out of the Caps, holding them to ten shots on goal over the last 26:24 of the game and adding an empty net goal by Turris for the final 3-1 margin.

Other stuff…

-- At least the penalty killers looked good.  On three power plays allowed the Caps permitted the Senators only one shot on goal.

-- Only ten Capitals managed to record a shot on goal (that’s what happens when you get only 19 as a team).  Only two shots on goal came from defensemen, both by Mike Green.

-- Not only were there few shots on goal by the Caps, they got almost none from defensemen other than Green.  John Erskine, Karl Alzner, Jack Hillen, and Steve Oleksy combined for zero shot attempts for the contest.

-- If the game seemed to be played entirely in the Caps’ end of the ice, you would not be far wrong.  The Senators enjoyed a 38-19 edge in shots and a 68-40 edge in shot attempts.

-- The Caps were smoked in the circle, too.  If going 20-for-31 was not bad enough, Nicklas Backstrom was the only Cap to win an offensive zone draw (3-for-7).  The rest of the team was 0-for-7 on draws in the offensive zone.

-- Alex Ovechkin had a very quiet night… four unsuccessful shots on goal, and he was on ice for all three goals against.  So was Mike Green.

-- Ribeiro’s goal ended a five-game drought and makes him 2-7-9 over his last seven games.

-- Ribeiro also took two minor penalties.  His 49 penalty minutes in 44 games represents the first season in his career in which he will finish the season with more penalty minutes than games played.

-- Cory Conacher is becoming quite an annoyance to the Caps in his brief career to date.  He is 2-1-3 in three games against the Caps so far in his rookie season.

-- Nicklas Backstrom did not take the ice over the last 7:16 of the game after taking a Mike Green shot off his arm. That made for some juggling of lines, first with Mike Ribeiro moving to the top line, then Mathieu Perreault jumping to the top line for the last five minutes of the contest.

In the end, give the Senators credit.  Here is a team with two of its key offensive cogs – Jason Spezza and Erik Karlsson – out with injuries. Coach Paul MacLean has done a remarkable job retooling his club on the fly, allowing them to win with a defense/goaltending mix.  But give the players credit, too.  They have done what they need to do to remain competitive.  The Senators are probably not a team that will be able to withstand the grind of four seven-game series in the post-season.  Caps fans saw close up last year what living on the margin in the playoffs means.  But the Senators are a resilient bunch.  Treat them lightly at your peril.

As for the Caps, they are going to have to earn their playoff spot.  Winnipeg has won five straight and has closed to within two points of the Caps with a relatively easy schedule coming up, at least easier than what faces the Caps.  Washington has to go into Montreal, then face the Jets, Ottawa again, and Boston at home.

This is what the playoffs look like.  Win, and you move on.  Lose, and break out the sticks…

…the golf clubs, that is.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 44: Capitals at Senators, April 18th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take to the road for their last road trip of the regular season.  It also happens to be their last trip to Canada…of the regular season.

“Hey cuz…why do they call it a ‘regular’ season?  Is it ‘cuz it heads to the outhouse every morning after its second cup of coffee?”

No, Cheerless, although Florida’s season seems to be a big steaming pile…

“And I like going to Canada, too.”

Why is that, Cheerless?

“Cuz it’s cheap to travel there.”

How so?

“Well, they’re on that metrical system up there…”

Metric…

“Yeah, that, too. But it’s like I heard George Carlin say once, ‘Kilometers are shorter than miles. Save gas, take your next trip in kilometers.’  So whenever I take a trip, I try to take one in Canada.”

Yours is a special kind of wisdom, Cheerless.

But back to the game.  The Caps open this road trip with a visit to Ottawa to take on the Senators, a team that might be righting their ship after hitting a reef and losing five straight.  Since that five game losing streak the Senators have won three in a row – a 3-1 win in Philadelphia over the Flyers, a 2-0 shutout of New Jersey in Newark, and – after having a game in Boston postponed – beating Carolina, 3-2.

One thing Ottawa has been able to do in their three-game winning streak that they were not able to do in the five-game skid is kill penalties.  They were only 14-for-18 (77.8 percent) in the five games, far below their second-best in the league 88.1 percent mark.  In the three-game winning streak they are 9-for-10 (90 percent).

What has not improved is the power play.  In the five game losing streak the Senators were 1-for-21 with the man advantage (4.8 percent).  They are only 1-for-12 in their three-game winning streak (8.33).

Ottawa is an offense-challenged team, but Daniel Alfredsson just seems to keep going.  This is not among Alfredsson’s best seasons, not surprising given this is his 17^th season (all with Ottawa).  But he does have three points in his last four games (2-1-3) and is the only Senator with two goals in their three-game winning streak.

At the other end is Peter Regin.  When Regin finished the 2009-2010 season with 13 goals in 75 games, he was among the top-ten rookies in that statistic, and good things might have been expected of him.  But then he sustained a series of shoulder injuries that started when he was pushed into the boards by current Capital Joey Crabb in a February 2011 game.  That injury ended his 2010-2011 season, and he managed to play only ten games in the 2011-2012 season.  This season he has yet to score a goal in 27 games, and he has only one point in his last 17 contests.  From "promising player" to "will he get a sweater tonight?"

One player who has not struggled with injuries, or anything else for that matter, is goalie Craig Anderson.  The 31-year old Anderson brings a 1.55 goals-against average into this game.  If he sustains that level of performance it will be, by far, the best goals-against average in the post-Original Six era.  Among goalies playing in at least half of his team’s games starting with the 1967-1968 season, the lowest goals-against average was recorded by Dallas’ Marty Turco in 2002-2003 (1.72).  Anderson will not appear in half the games of an 82-game season, of course, this being an abbreviated season.  He has not even appeared in half of Ottawa’s games so far this season (19 of 42 contests), but his record is no less remarkable – 10-6-2, 1.55, .949, with three shutouts. 

Here is how the clubs compare overall this season…

1.  Ottawa does not win with offense.  In games in which they allow more than two goals the Senators are 4-8-3.  They have only ten games out of 42 on their record in which they scored more than three goals.

2.  Ottawa is a rather average team in the first and third periods of games.  They have both scored and allowed 30 goals in the first periods of games, and they have a minus-1 goal differential in the third periods of games.  However, they are a plus-15 in the second period, the fourth best mark in the league.

3.  You might think that a team that relies so much on goaltending and defense would play in – and be successful in – a lot of one-goal games.  Not so.  Ottawa is just 10-9-6 in one-goal decisions.  However, they are 12-5 in decisions by more than one goal.

4.  The Senators certainly challenge their goaltenders in terms of facing shorthanded situations.  Only four teams have been whistled for more minor penalties, and only seven teams have been shorthanded more often.

5.  Ottawa has only one player who has scored ten goals with the club this season.  Daniel Alfredsson has ten, and it took him 39 games to get there.

1.  Washington has improved its 5-on-5 play, at least on offense  Only four teams have more 5-on-5 goals scored than the Caps (84).

2.  Only one team (Toronto) has more wins this season than the Caps in games in which they have been outshot.  Washington has 15 such wins.  That fact would be much more impressive if the Caps had not been outshot in 31 of 43 games.

3. Mike Green has played in only 30 of 43 games, but he still ranks in a tie for 16^th in power play scoring among defensemen.  Seven of his nine assists on the season have come on the power play.

4.  Alex Ovechkin has 15 power play goals.  That total not only leads the league, it is the only total in double digits.  It is already his highest total since he had 19 power play goals in the 2008-2009 season.  But here is some more context.  Those 15 power play goals represent a 29-goal pace over 82 games.  Only four players in the history of the NHL have had more than 29 power play goals in a season (Tim Kerr, Dave Andreychuk, Joe Nieuwendyk, and Mario Lemieux (twice)).

5.  Braden Holtby is in select company.  In the post-Original Six era, only four goalies who have played in at least 50 games in their first three seasons posted an aggregate save percentage better than Holtby’s .921: Tuukka Rask (.930), Marty Turco (.928), Niklas Backstrom (.923), and Roman Cechmanek (.923).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Ottawa: Cory Conacher

It has been quite a season for the 23-year old rookie.  He went from going 5-7-12, plus-8 in his first seven games with the Tampa Bay Lightning (including a goal and an assist against the Caps on Opening Night) to going 4-8-12, minus-11 over his next 28 games, then getting traded to Ottawa with a fourth round draft pick for goalie Ben Bishop.  He is just 1-1-2, plus-3 in six games with the Senators in a little more than 14 minutes of ice time a night.  But Conacher is a fighter.  He has had to be to reach this level.  He underwent a serious surgical procedure shortly after birth to correct a birth defect and that might have left him unable to walk properly.  He was diagnosed with diabetes as a child.  Then there is his size.  At 5’8”, 179, he is not your prototypical forward.  And with the diminutive size comes large shoes to fill.  He is related to three hockey hall of famers Charlie, Roy, and Lionel Conacher.  Playing the games must be the easy part for this kid.

Washington: John Carlson

John Carlson has had a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde existence this season.  On the one hand Carlson has been on ice for 57 goals scored against the Caps this season.  Only five defensemen have been on ice for more goals scored against their teams.  But that number really comes in two parts.  Carlson leads, so to speak, in power plays scored against while on ice by a large margin, 26 to 20 for Pittsburgh’s Brooks Orpik.  But take power play goals scored out of the mix, and there are 36 defensemen who have been on ice for more goals scored against.  It is why Carlson, despite all the scoring going on around him, is a plus-9, a top-25 number among defensemen. He is 3-4-7, even, in 11 career games against the Senators.

Keys:

1.  Patience, grasshopper.  Craig Anderson has one of the stranger records among goalies.  In games in which he faces 30 or fewer shots he is 3-4-1, 2.19, .915.  Not bad.  Pretty good, in fact.  But his record when facing more than 30 shots… 7-2-1, 1.00, .971, with three shutouts.  Not exactly what one would expect.  Shoot the puck, Caps, but be patient.  Anderson doesn’t crack with volume.

2.  Don’t forget your own end.  Against a team like Ottawa, a team that plays games with little scoring (4.45 combined goals per game), the temptation might be to cheat or take shortcuts to try to generate offense.  That might open up chances for the Senators.  Tend to business in your own end.

3.  It’s an Ontario thing.  Ottawa, like Toronto, is an oft-penalized team.  This is where the Caps, as they did against Toronto, need to cash in.

In the end…

The Caps get another chance to test themselves against a playoff-quality opponent that plays a playoff style of hockey – heavy on defense and goaltending.  And this one is on the road, where the Caps…

“Cousin, speaking of travel, did you know that Samuel Johnson once said, “The use of traveling is to regulate imagination by reality, and instead of thinking how things may be, to see them as they are?”

That’s a good point, Fearless, and as we were about to say, this is where the Caps are going to see things more as they are on this trip.  Two games, two Canadian cities, two playoff teams.  They could use a good start to the trip in Ottawa.

Capitals 3 – Senators 2