Eastern Conference Semifinal - Game 3: Capitals 1 - Rangers 0

Sometimes, one is enough. It was enough for the Washington Capitals on Monday night to subdue the New York Rangers in Game 3 of their playoff series, a goal by Jay Beagle 7:31 into the second period being the game’s only score on a night where both goaltenders shined.

It was a matter of persistence for Beagle on the game-winner. After a scoreless first period and seven minutes of similar hockey to start the second period, the Caps dumped the puck into the Rangers’ end. Troy Brower fought off a pair of Rangers long enough to allow Andre Burakovsky to gather the puck at the bottom of the left wing circle. Burakovsky backhanded the puck out to Beagle filling in down the middle late on the play. Beagle’s initial shot was turned away by goalie Henrik Lundqvist, but Beagle hunted the puck down behind the Rangers’ net. He circled behind the cage and from below the goal line threw the puck in front. The puck hit the skate of defenseman Keith Yandle, then ticked off the left skate of Lundqvist and in to give the Caps the only goal they would need to skate off with a 1-0 victory and take a 2-1 series lead over the Rangers.

Other stuff…

-- The goal was Beagle’s first of the post season after a lot of frustrating near misses. He has scored one goal in each of his last three post seasons covering 29 games. However, it was his fourth point in the post season, and four points more than doubles his career playoff output (now 3-4-7 over 33 games).

-- For the seventh time in ten post season games and tenth time in their last 16 games overall, the Caps had two or fewer power play chances (two in this game).

-- In stopping all 30 shots he faced, goalie Braden Holtby took over the lead in save percentage among goaltenders still playing in the post season (.949) as well as goals against average (1.54). Since the 2004-2005 lockout, 31 goaltenders have appeared in at least 20 post season games.  Holtby has the best save percentage of any goaltender among them: .936.  He has the second best goals against average at 1.89 (Chris Osgood: 1.80 in 42 games).

-- The Rangers won the shots attempted battle, 69-49.

-- Andre Burakovsky recorded his first career post season point with his primary assist on the game-winning goal. For Troy Brouwer, who recorded the secondary assist, it was his first point of the series. Neither Burakovsky nor Brouwer recorded a shot on goal, however.

-- Matt Niskanen is struggling to be heard from on the offensive side of the score sheet in this series, but he led all players with seven blocked shots.

-- It was the first time in seven games against the Rangers this season, regular season and playoffs, that Alex Ovechkin failed to record a goal.

-- Beagle (10-for-12) and Nicklas Backstrom (15-for-20) owned the faceoff circle in this game. Beagle is the leader in post season faceoff winning percentage (67.5), while Backstrom is seventh (56.7).

-- With the game in doubt late, the Caps allowed the Rangers only one shot on goal in the last 3:13 of the game, although taking two icings in the last half minute made for some anxious moments.

-- Is Rick Nash frustrated? He had 15 shot attempts, seven shots on goal (including that only shot in the last 3:13) and had only a minus-1 to show for it.

In the end…

There are two takeaways from this game.  The first is that at first blush the Caps might have benefited from a measure of luck, in this game and in the series.  A goal with 1.3 seconds left in regulation time to win Game 1.  A goal that banks off not one, but two opponents’ skates for the game winner in another win in Game 3.  But look more closely.  Those plays were finished because of little things that occurred before the goal lamp was lit.  Nicklas Backstrom pressing hard on a forecheck to free a puck and Alex Ovechkin playing the role of playmaker instead of finisher on Joel Ward’s game winner in Game 1.  Then last night, Evgeny Kuznetsov dumped the puck into the Rangers’ end instead of trying to lengthen his shift and do something on his own (think the kid hasn’t grown a bit into the NHL game?).  Troy Brouwer occupied two defenders to allow Andre Burakovsky to collect a loose puck.  Jay Beagle headed for the net and followed his own shot.  Little things – the right things – add up in the end, and this team does them better than Capitals playoff teams of recent vintage.

Second, in what looks as if it might be a long series, your goaltender is going to have to steal a game or two. Braden Holtby did just that in Game 3. It is not often one can say that of a Capitals goaltender, and that is a big difference between this edition of the Capitals and those of years past. The Caps certainly played with fire, especially late in the contest, the Rangers out-attempting Washington by a 21-13 margin at 5-on-5 in the third period and getting the period’s only power play. And those late icings didn’t help.  But again, the little things – Backstrom beat Derick Brassard on both faceoffs following those icing calls in the last minute.  Not insignificantly, Backstrom blocked the Rangers’ last two shot attempts, more evidence of doing other things a team needs to do to win when the points are not coming easily. 

On a night on which the Rangers found a way to silence Alex Ovechkin, the team as a whole did a lot of little things right, and Holtby stepped up with a performance that cements his place among the best post season goaltenders in club history and among the best in the game. The Caps will need that level of performance from everyone as the teams head to Game 4 on Wednesday night.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR -- So, you want cheese with that?

“I just saw Boyle on the ice after it, but some of the guys saw [the hit] and it sounds like a charge… His back is turned the whole way, and he’s just standing there freezing the puck. He takes a run at him. It seems cheap.”

-- Ranger defenseman Marc Staal

“There should have been a penalty called against Backstrom, but the greater misfeasance belonged to the Blueshirts, who seemed to freeze at the lack of a whistle, and presented no opposition to the ensuing winning play on which Alex Ovechkin’s beauty of a centering feed against the grain found Ward all alone to the goaltender’s left.”

-- New York Post columnist Larry Brooks

“I saw Boyler get hit and go down, and I kind of hesitated just to kind of see…I knew he was down, and I thought they were going to blow (the whistle)."

-- Ranger defenseman Ryan McDonagh

“I haven’t seen the replay but knowing Boyler, my guess is it was bad, and that allowed them to get that chance…If Boyler doesn’t go down, they don’t get that chance. It’s tough to take, the late goal, but it’s how it happened that’s tough to take.”

-- Ranger forward Martin St. Louis

"I'm not going to comment on the referees. Don't ask me about it…Ask me anything else, but don't ask me about that."

-- Ranger coach Alain Vigneault

To be fair about it, if that was Derek Stepan leveling Mike Green in the corner in that manner before a Ranger goal, a lot of Caps fans, players, and local journalists might be uttering words similar to those uttered after last night’s game.  And, there are folks on the Ranger side of the divide who think the Backstrom hit was within the rules, a “hockey” play in the critical dying seconds of regulation time.

But this is the playoffs, and this is for the Cup.  It was quite a finish to the start of this series between two teams and fan bases that need no further encouragement ramp up the intensity.

Eastern Conference Semifinal - Game 1: Capitals 2 - Rangers 1

There is always that phrase, “play a full 60 minutes.”  The Washington Capitals took that measure to its full extreme, less 1.3 seconds, on Thursday night as Joel Ward scored with that much time left on the clock in regulation time to give the Capitals a 2-1 win in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series at Madison Square Garden.

The game-winning play started innocently enough with Alex Ovechkin skating the puck into the Ranger end.  He tried a curl and drag move, but the puck rolled off his stick where Ryan McDonagh collected it.  He was unable to control it, though, and the puck slid into the corner to the left of goalie Henrik Lundqvist.  Dan Boyle skated in to retrieve it for the Rangers, but he was checked hard against the glass by Nicklas Backstrrom.  The puck squirted free once more, Ovechkin finding it below the Ranger goal line.  He skated along the wall behind Lundqvist, and as Derek Stepan closed on him, Ovechkin dropped the puck back for Joel Ward trailing the play.  Ward had nothing but open ice in front of him, and he wasted no time getting off a shot that slid under Lundqvist’s left pad and in to give the Caps a win in Game 1.

Before that it looked as if the teams would take their battle to overtime, having exchanged single goals over the first 59 minutes.  The Caps opened the scoring in the first period on a power play simply executed.  John Carlson started the play skating out from behind his own net.  As he reached his own blue line, Carlson sent the puck up to Ovechkin along the left wing.  Ovechkin took the puck at the red line and skated down the wing, backing off Boyle into the Ranger zone.  Ovechkin called his own number, wristing a shot through Boyle’s legs and over Lundqvist’s blocker to give the Caps a 1-0 lead at the 18:13 mark of the first period.

That goal held up for almost 40 minutes, but the Rangers tied the game late in the third period.  Capitalizing on pressure in the Caps’ end, Boyle retrieved a loose puck in the corner to the left of goalie Braden Holtby and tried to center the puck.  Jay Beagle got a stick on it, but not enough to clear the zone.  Kevin Hayes grabbed the puck high in the offensive zone and fired a shot through a screen of bodies in front of Holtby.  One of those bodies was Jesper Fast, who redirected the puck past Holtby’s blocker to tie the game at a goal apiece with just 4:39 left in regulation.

It might have been enough to send the contest into extra time, but there was still the matter of there being 60 minutes in regulation, and the Capitals used almost all of them to take Game 1.

Other stuff…

-- The Capitals are 2-5, all-time, when winning Game 1 of a playoff series on the road.  The last time they won a Game 1 on the road was in 2003, a 3-0 win in Tampa.  The Lightning won that series in six games.

-- The New York Rangers still do not have an answer for Alex Ovechkin.  This was the sixth straight game in which Ovechkin scored a goal against the Blueshirts, dating back to January 2014.

-- In what might be the strangest Ovechkin statistic of the night, he was one of three Capitals not credited with a hit.  Marcus Johansson and Curtis Glencross were the others.

-- Nicklas Backstrom had a “heavy” game.  He tied for the team lead in hits with five (with Tom Wilson).

-- The difference in Wilson’s five hits was that he compiled than many in roughly half the ice time (10:07) as Backstrom (20:03).

-- The win was only Braden Holtby’s second in eight tries on Madison Square Garden ice in the post season.  He beat the Rangers, 3-2, in Game 2 of the 2012 Eastern Conference semifinals.

-- Game 1 was the first time this season that the Capitals did not allow the Rangers to score in the first period.  In fact, in three of the four games in the regular season series the Rangers scored a pair of goals in the first period.  When the Caps shut out the Rangers in the first period it broke a streak of five straight games in which New York scored in the first period against Washington.

-- Four of the last six games for the Caps have ended in 2-1 scores, the Caps winning three of them.  There would have been a fifth but for an empty-net goal by Cal Clutterbuck in a 3-1 New York islanders win in Game six of the first round.  Hey, it’s the playoffs.

-- Joel Ward scored on what would be his only shot of the game.  He had three misses, including one off the post behind Lundqvist that might have rendered his late-game heroics unnecessary.

-- How many times does a player go into a corner to retrieve a puck, brace himself for the hit he knows is coming, takes it, and skates away no worse for wear?  Dan Boyle failing to skate away from the hit he took from Nicklas Backstrom was the subtext of the game-winning play.  Was it “boarding?”  Not as much as it was circumstance.  But for the fact that there were less than five seconds left in regulation, Boyle might have moved that puck along the boards, turned away from the hit, and played on.  However, he tried to freeze the puck for those last few seconds, willing to take a hit to make sure that a loose puck did not find its way to a Capital’s stick.  Backstrom finished the play the way players are taught.

In the end…

It’s first to “four,” not first to “one.”  As nice as this win was, and it certainly was, there is that last time the Caps held a 1-0 series lead on the road, the result of a 3-0 shutout of the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2003.  The Caps won Game 2 of that series, too, to bring a 2-0 lead back to Washington, only to fritter it away, losing the next four games.  We do not mean to rain on anyone’s parade here, but there isn’t any parade, yet, either.

All that aside, the Caps demonstrated that they can compete with the Rangers and take the best they have to offer.  And unless the Rangers can find an answer for Alex Ovechkin, this could be a very difficult series for them.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Semifinals: Capitals vs. Rangers

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

One down, and…

OK, let’s just take them one at a time.  Having escaped the first round of the playoffs with a seven-game series win over the New York Islanders, the Washington Capitals take the next step in their Grand Nostalgia Tour of the post season by locking up with the New York Rangers in the Eastern Conference semifinal round.

You will remember that the Caps and Islanders met for the seventh time in the playoffs in Capitals franchise history when they met in Round 1.  Now, the Capitals face a team that they will battle for the ninth time in the post season.  Here is the history:

• 1986 Patrick Division Semifinal – Rangers win best-of-seven, 4-2
• 1990 Patrick Division Final – Capitals win best-of-seven, 4-1
• 1991 Patrick Division Semifinal – Capitals win best-of-seven, 4-2
• 1994 Eastern Conference Quarterfinal – Rangers win best-of-seven, 4-1
• 2009 Eastern Conference Quarterfinal – Capitals win best-of-seven, 4-3
• 2011 Eastern Conference Quarterfinal – Capitals win best-of-seven, 4-1
• 2012 Eastern Conference Semifinal – Rangers win best-of-seven, 4-3
• 2013 Eastern Conference Quarterfinal – Rangers win best-of-seven, 4-3

The Capitals have not faced any team in the post season more frequently than the Rangers, not the Penguins (eight times), not the Islanders (seven), not the Flyers (four).  Each team has won four series, the Caps holding a thin 25-23 edge in games won.

Evolution

This will be the fifth time in seven seasons that the Caps and Rangers faced off in the playoffs, each team having won two of the previous four meetings.  With so many meetings in so narrow a space of time, you might expect that the Caps and Rangers have a fair number of players who are veterans of all four of the recent meetings.  You would be wrong on that score.  In the four series meetings since 2009, here are the skaters who have appeared in at least one game in all of them and who can be expected to play in this series:

The Rangers have completely remade their forward corps since that 2009 meeting, while the Caps have almost replaced their entire defensive squad. 

However, while the skaters have largely been swapped out between 2009 and this season for both teams, the comparison of goalies yields something very different.  Here, for example, are the Capital goaltenders having appeared over the last four series between the clubs:

And here is the list of Ranger goalies having appeared against the Capitals:

But for 40 minutes over two games, Henrik Lundqvist has tended goal for each and every game and minute of the four series played between these two teams since 2009.  There is a certain richness in that four-year record that is interesting.  For example, over his first 21 appearances in that span of games, he won consecutive games only once, that in Games 1 and 2 to open the 2009 series.  However, since he was lit up for five goals on 20 shots in 40 minutes of work in Game 6 of the 2009 series (the second straight game in which he was pulled after two periods), Lundqvist has allowed more than three goals to the Caps only once in 20 post season appearances.  If anything, his most recent performance is even more impressive.  Lundqvist has won four of his last five post season appearances against the Caps, posting shutouts in his last two games against Washington to clinch the 2013 series. As far as the regular season series is concerned, here is how the principals compare:

The Recent History: 2014-2015

The Caps and Rangers met four times this season, and things did not go so well from a Capitals perspective.  If you are going to put lipstick on this pig, first we need it to stand still:

So, what do we make of this?  On a wins-losses basis, the optimism-addled Caps fan might say, “well, they lost the first two games, but then they pasted the Rangers on their own ice and then lost the last game of the season after they already clinched a playoff spot.” 

To that we say, “nice try, Sparky.”  But that does not mean that this was as cut and dried as all that, that the Rangers are the clearly dominant team based on the season series.  The Caps out-attempted the Rangers in shots in three of the four games and tied with them in the fourth (oddly enough, the Caps’ only win).

Where the Caps shot themselves in the foot was early in games.  New York out-scored Washington in the first periods of games by a 7-2 margin and scored the first goal of the game three times (all Ranger wins).  The Caps spent too much time in too many games playing catch-up, and while the third period goal differential in the four games looks better (7-4, Caps), it was not good enough to actually pull victory from the jaws of defeat very often.

Here is a summary of the four games from the 100,000-foot level...

Special Teams

The Caps do not exactly live or die by the power play, but it is an integral part of their success, particularly the power play.  Washington scored a power play in each of the four games this past season, so if they couldn’t parlay that success into wins, at least the Caps established that they can be effective against the Ranger penalty killers.

Overall, the Caps were 4-for-13 (30.8 percent) for the season against the Rangers.  In putting together that mark the Caps had an odd set of coincidences.  In each game, their goals/shots equaled their goals/power play chances.  They had one power play on five chances in their first meeting, one goal on five shots.  It was 1-for-3 and one goal on three shots in Game 2, one goal on four opportunities and four shots in the third game, and one goal on their only opportunity and only shot in the last game of the season.

It was an effective power play (4-for-13 in chances), but it was mixed in efficiency (a 30.8 percent shooting percentage, but only 13 shots in 17:28 of power play ice time).

The Caps’ penalty kill was effective, but this is a mixed bag, too.  Killing 16 of 19 Ranger power plays was a good thing (84.2 percent), but 19 Ranger power plays in four games, giving the Rangers a plus-6 in power play chances, was not a recipe for success.  Here is another number, a worse number, a number you do not want to see in this series: 30.  The Rangers managed 30 shots on goal on 19 power plays.  That they did it over 30:34 of power play ice time makes the result sound a bit better on an efficiency basis, but it was too many shots over far too much power play ice time.  The Rangers do not have an especially effective power play overall, but if the Caps are marching to the penalty box with the frequency they did in the regular season against the Rangers, they will be marching to the first tee in the second week of May.

Leaders

When looking at the Caps’ leading scorers, there is a glass half full/glass half empty quality to it.  The “half full” part is that the Rangers have not found an answer to Alex Ovechkin.  He had five goals in the four games of the series this season, recording at least one goal in each game.  On the “half empty” side, those five goals represent half the Caps’ total against the Rangers.

The overall scoring is more balanced, owing to the assists being spread around more liberally. Eleven Caps have helpers, seven of them with two or more.  John Carlson leads with four.  The “half empty” part of that glass is the fact that Nicklas Backstrom had only two assists in the four games.  Overall, the Caps’ scoring had an odd look to it; you were either a goal scorer, or you had assists, not both.  Of the 14 skaters to record points, only Marcus Johansson and Evgeny Kuznetsov managed to record both a goal and an assist (both recorded one of each).

The Rangers, as one might expect, had a bit more balance.  Eight players shared the 13 goals scored by New York in the season series.  Four of them had two or more, Rick Nash leading the way with three.  He had all of them in a hat trick performance in the teams’ first meeting of the season, a 4-2 win in New York on December 23rd.

Fourteen players recorded points, six of them with two or more.  Four players – Derick Brassard, Dan Boyle, Mats Zuccarello, and Kevin Hayes – had three assists to lead the club.  Hayes and Brassard led the team in overall points with five apiece (both went 2-3-5).

The Overall

Here is how the Capitals and the Rangers compare in their regular season numbers overall:

Who’s Hot?

For the Caps, Evgeny Kuznetsov.  He comes into this series with three goals and an assist out of the Islander series, and overall he is 8-9-17, plus-5, over his last 24 games dating back to March 5th.

For the Rangers, it would be Derick Brassard. He led the team in goal-scoring in the first-round win over the Penguins, potting three of the Rangers’ 11 goals of that series.  He has seven goals in his last 13 games dating back to March 29th.

Who’s Not?

For the Capitals, it would have to be Curtis Glencross.  He did not have a point in the Islander series and dressed for only four games.  He does not have a goal in his last 15 games (one assist over that span) after recording four in his first seven games with the Caps after being obtained from the Calgary Flames.

For the Rangers, it might have to be (at the risk of awakening the hockey gods) Martin St. Louis.  He has been streaky of late.  St. Louis went seven games without a point to end February and begin March before going 3-5-8 in his last nine games to close the regular season.  He had but one assist in the five-game first round series against Pittsburgh.  Oh, that nine-game stretch to close the regular season?  It opened and closed against the Caps; St. Louis had a goal in the first game and two assists in the last one.

Random facts to impress your friends and annoy your enemies…

• Nineteen teams finished ahead of the Rangers in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 in the regular season (49.5), a number includes 13 of other 15 teams reaching the post season (Montreal and Calgary finished behind the Rangers). By way of comparison, the Caps finished 13^th overall (51.4, ninth among the 16 playoff teams; numbers: war-on-ice.com).
• Since the two became teammates, Alex Ovechkin averages more assists per game (0.51) than Nicklas Backstrom (0.48) in the post season.
• If I told you Dan Girardi has played more post season games than any Ranger in club history, would you believe it?  True (94; Walt Tkachuk played in 93).  Alex Ovechkin is the only active Capital in the top ten in post season games played in club history (tenth with 65, one more than Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green).
• For the Caps, scoring more than four goals against the Rangers in regulation in a post-season game is rare.  Washington has gone 39 post season games against New York without doing so, dating back to a 7-1 win over the Rangers in Game 3 of the 1990 Patrick Division Final (the Caps won the series, 4-1).  You might remember that year as being the “Druce on the Loose” year (he had two goals and two assists in that game).
• Mike Green is the Capitals’ all-time playoff leader in power play goals (6).  Not that this is a big list.  Only 12 defensemen in Capitals history have scored power play goals in the post season.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

The big “battle within the battle” is going to be Alex Ovechkin againt Henrik Lundqvist, the irresistible force against the impenetrable object.  But that won’t be the only one.  There are other players who might be heard from.

Washington: Jason Chimera

Some guys have a knack against one team.  In baseball back in the late 1950’s and early 1960’s, Detroit Tiger pitcher Frank Lary was known as “Yankee Killer” for his 27-10 record against them (he was 101-106 in his career otherwise).  For the Washington Capitals, Jason Chimera seems to have knack for tormenting the Rangers and Henrik Lundqvist.  In 19 playoff games against the Rangers with the Caps, Chimera is 6-4-10 (4-10-14 in 31 career playoff games otherwise).  What is more, three of those six goals were game-winners.  Chimera did not exactly burn out the red light behind opposing goaltenders to finish the 2014-2015 regular season; he had only two goals in his last 27 games, both of them against (who else) the Rangers in a 5-2 win on March 29th, including the game-winner.

New York: Chris Kreider

Chris Kreider might be a good fit for the clandestine service.  For a big man (6’3”, 226) he can disappear at times. In the first round series against the Penguins, Kreider had one point (the game-winning goal a Ranger 2-1 win in Game 3).  It is part of a longer run in which Kreider has only that single point over his last eight games dating back to April 7th.  When he is on, though, he can be a monster.  Despite his size, his speed can be breathtaking, and he can produce in bunches.  Before this eight-game points drought, Kreider was 4-6-10 over his previous nine games.  Of course, that was preceded by a stretch in which he went 1-2-3 over ten games.  You get the point.  Let’s hope Kreider does not, scoring-wise that is.  In eight career regular season games against the Caps, Kreider has just one assist.  He had a goal and an assist in the Rangers’ seven-game series win over the Caps in 2013.

In the end…

For the second straight series the Caps have to contend with a team whose style can cause them difficulties.  The Rangers are, like the Islanders, a team that uses speed and crisp playmaking to generate offense in waves.  The difference is, the Rangers are perhaps better at it and certainly more experienced.  The real difference from that series to this, however, is that the Rangers have a world-class goaltender, whereas the Islanders had what amounted to a “Cap killer.” 

Henrik Lundqvist has been sharp since returning from a neck injury late in the season, and he is more than capable of dominating a series over its seven-game length, if it should come to that.  If there is an Achilles heel for the Rangers, it is that they have been living off their PDO (tops in the league at 5-on-5 in the regular season) much more than their raw possession numbers.

If the Caps can fight the Rangers to a draw in the possession battle, a combination of their superior power play and their physical style can grind down the Rangers.  The Rangers have a deeper team in terms of talent, but as Capital fans are acutely aware, a talent advantage does not always translate to four wins in seven games.  This series is where the Ranger’s flirtation with failure based on their possession numbers catches up with them.

Eastern Conference Quarterfinal - Game 7: Capitals 2 - Islanders 1

Coming into their opening round playoff series against the New York Islanders, the Caps skated in 209 post season games in franchise history.  In 29 of those instances the Caps played to a 2-1 decision, winning only nine times and losing on 20 occasions. Of those nine wins by a 2-1 margin, only one came against the Islanders, back in Game 3 of the Patrick Division finals in 1985.  Twice they lost to the Islanders by that score, both times also taking place in that 1985 Patrick Division final that the Caps would lose in five games.

The Caps and Islanders added to that history by splitting a pair of 2-1 decisions on their way to a split of the first six games in their first-round series. The teams went into Game 7 just as close overall, each team having scored 14 goals in the series.  When the first period of Game 7 ended scoreless, it seemed assured that the Caps and Isles would play this one close, perhaps to yet another 2-1 decision.  That did not bode well for the Caps.

There was another memory lurking about this game, that being one of the most famous post season games in NHL history, the "Easter Epic" four-overtime game of April 18-19, 1987.  That might have ended in another 2-1 decision, that one in the Caps' favor, but the Islanders scored with just 5:23 left in regulation time to send the game to overtime and, eventually, history as the Islanders escaped with a 3-2 win early on Easter morning in 1987.

This one was resembling that game long ago more and more as the time ticked on.  In 1987 the Caps dominated the first period in shots, 15-5; last night it was 11-3 for Washington.  The second period was more of the same, the Caps holding a 21-7 edge in shots over the first 40 minutes last night, while in 1987 the shot meter read "25-10," Capitals, at the second intermission.

In 1987 it was a late first period goal that put the Caps on top; last night it was a late goal by Joel Ward in the second period.  It would be the Islanders tying things up with a goal by Frans Nielsen last night that slithered through Braden Holtby's pads, not altogether unlike the goal that Pat Flatley snapped through Bob Mason's pads on that April night in 1987.

The Caps regained the lead last night on a spectacular individual effort by Evgeny Kuznetsov, who darted off the right wing wall, leaving Nielsen in his wake, then skating across the high slot, underneath the late coverage of Brock Nelson.  Eluding Nelson's attempted sweep check, Kuznetsov held the puck for what seemed like minutes, waiting for goalie Jaroslav Halak to commit.  When he did, Kuznetsov fired high, just in time to deny defenseman Johnny Boychuk a chance to fill in behind Halak to block the open net.

It was a rookie scoring in a big moment, just as Grant Martin, playing in what would be his only career NHL playoff game, did when he scored to give the Capitals a 2-1 lead in Game 7 of the 1987 series against the Isles.

All that was left was for the Islanders to find their big moment, a moment authored by a player accustomed to the spotlight as Bryan Trottier was when he tied that Game 7 long ago.  One might have expected a John Tavares moment at that point, but for the Islanders it would be a moment that never came.

If anything, Tavares would be the example of what might be, not a new chapter in Capitals history, but an entirely new volume.  Tavares would not get a chance to be that hero for the Islanders, the player who would send the game further into the night.  The Capitals would hold him without a shot attempt in the game.  In fact, after the Kuznetsov goal the Capitals would hold the Islanders to a single shot on goal, a harmless 60-footer from Boychuk with 4:46 left.

In the end, the lasting image of this game will be Kuznetsov's celebration of his game winning goal.  There might be one more symbolic, though, and it came in the dying seconds.  The Islanders were desperately trying to gain control of a loose puck at the top of the Capitals' defensive zone.  Battling them for control was Nicklas Backstrom, held off the score sheet for the third straight game in this series, but who did so many of the little things that needed to be done.  He had one more as time was about to expire.  He kicked the puck loose, out of the reach of the scrambling Islanders, and out of the zone, giving rise to the image of the Capitals kicking away a lot of frustration and disappointment, writing the first chapter of what one hopes will be a new and happier narrative of Capitals hockey.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Desperate Times Call for...The General

Now, I want you to remember that no bastard ever won a hockey game by taking a penalty for his team. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard take a penalty for his team. Men, all this stuff you’ve heard about the Caps not wanting to fight, wanting to stay out of the contest, is a lot of horse dung. Caps traditionally love to fight. All real Caps love the sting of battle. When you were kids, you all admired the champion marble shooter, the fastest runner, the big league ball player, the toughest boxer. Caps fans love a winner and will not tolerate a loser. Caps play to win all the time. I wouldn’t give a hoot in hell for a man who lost...and laughed. That’s why Caps have never lost and will never lose a game. Because the very thought of losing is hateful to Capitals.

Now... hockey club is a team. It lives, eats, sleeps, checks as a team. This individuality stuff is a bunch of crap. The bilious bastards who wrote that stuff about individuality for NHL Network don’t know anything more about real hockey games than they do about fornicating.

We have the finest food and equipment, the best spirit and the best men in the world. You know, by God I actually pity those poor bastards we’re going up against. By God, I do. We’re not just going to check the bastards, we’re going to cut out their living guts and use them to tape the blades of our sticks. We’re going to hit those lousy Senator bastards by the bushel.

Now, some of you boys, I know, are wondering whether or not you'll chicken out under fire. Don't worry about it. I can assure you that you will all do your duty. The Islanders are the enemy. Wade into them. Spill their blood. Check them into the boards. When you put your hand into a bunch of goo that a moment before was your best friend's face...you'll know what to do.

Now there’s another thing I want you to remember. I don’t want to get any messages saying that we are holding our position. We’re not holding anything. Let New York do that. We are advancing constantly and we’re not interested in holding onto anything except the enemy. We're going to hold onto him by the nose and we're going to kick him in the ass. We're going to kick the hell out of him all the time and we're gonna go through him like crap through a goose.

There’s one thing that you men will be able to say when you get back home. And you may thank God for it. Thirty years from now when you’re sitting around your fireside with your grandson on your knee and he asks you, "what did you do in the great National Hockey League," you won’t have to say, "Well, I shoveled shit in DC."

Alright now, you sons-of-bitches, you know how I feel. Oh...and I will be proud to lead you wonderful guys into battle – anytime, anywhere.

...That’s all.

Washington Capitals -- Game 7: Law of Averages or the Curse of LaFontaine?

Over the first 12 seasons in the history of the Washington Capitals franchise, the Caps had never played in a Game 7 of a seven-game playoff series.  In 1987 that changed.  Washington took a three games to one lead over the New York Islanders in their Patrick Division semifinal series in that post season but could not close out the Islanders in either Game 5 or Game 6.  Game 7 would be the first Game 7 played by the Caps and the first on home ice.

As any Caps fan knows, that Game 7 in 1987 ended in excruciating fashion when Pat Lafontaine scored 8:47 into the fourth overtime to complete the comeback by the Islanders and send the Capitals on a journey of despair that has lasted almost 30 years. 

In all that time since that first disappointment, only the Boston Bruins have played more Games 7 on home ice (13) than have the Capitals (9).  No team having played more than five Games 7 on home ice in that time have a worse record than the Caps’ 2-7 record.  No team has a worse goal differential (minus-13).  No team has allowed more goals against overall (30, tied with Boston).  No team has allowed more power play goals against (7).

If the Caps’ “homes” over the last 28 years of post seasons -- in Landover and Washington -- were subjected to inspection, they would be condemned as uninhabitable.  The “home ice advantage” for which teams work so hard over the course of a season has meant next to nothing, an overtime win over the Philadelphia Flyers in 1988 and a thrilling 2-1 win over the New York Rangers in 2009 being the only interruptions in the unremitting disappointment that has been Game 7 on home ice for the Capitals.

Here is the history in a table:

So, here we are on the eve of the Caps’ tenth post season Game 7 on home ice in club history.   They are where they began this trek, facing the New York Islanders.  Through 28 years, nine playoff series, two cities (Landover and Washington), three captains, and four coaches, the Capitals and their fans have known little joy when the horn sounded or the final goal was scored in a Game 7 on home ice.  A win on Monday night will not sponge away all the disappointment of those seasons past.  But it will make a dent in it -- a big one.  We are left to see if the ghost of Pat Lafontaine still lurks over this franchise, or if the Capitals can start writing a new history at the expense of a team who wrote the first chapter in the one that haunts them still.

Eastern Conference Quarterfinal - Game 6: Islanders 3 - Capitals 1

Here we go again.  For the eighth time in their last ten post season series, the Washington Capitals will play a Game 7.  That fate was sealed when the Capitals lost what might have been the final NHL game at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum this afternoon, 3-1, to the New York Islanders.

For the fifth time in six games in this series the Islanders opened the scoring.  This time it came less than seven minutes into the game when John Tavares collected a loose puck just outside the Capitals’ blue line, skated into the Caps’ zone, backing off defenseman John Carlson.  He then cut to the middle and fired a shot across his body that caught goalie Braden Holtby leaning the wrong way as the puck sailed short side to give the Islanders the 1-0 lead.

That lead held up for most of the rest of the period, through two Washington power plays. However, the third power play in the period proved to be the charm for the Caps just before intermission.  John Carlson started and ended the scoring play.  He started it by sending a long pass from his own end to Troy Brouwer at the Islanders’ blue line.  Brouwer skated in and snapped a shot that goalie Jaorslav Halak stopped but could not control.  The puck bounced out to Alex Ovechkin in the left faceoff circle, and he found Carlson drifting in on the right side.  From the top of the right wing faceoff circle Carlson let fly with a shot that beat Halak with just 4.3 seconds left in the period.

That did it for the scoring until the third period when the Islanders broke through.  John Tavares skated into the Capitals’ zone and carried the puck deep.  He was met behind the Caps’ goal line by Ovechkin and Karl Alzner, who separated him from the puck.  Ovechkin searched for the puck, but it slid around the boards to Nick Leddy along the left wing wall.  He found Nikolay Kulemin darting down the middle, and when Kulemin took the pass he had only Holtby to beat.  He took Leddy’s pass and curled the puck around Holtby’s right pad to give the Islanders the lead they would not relinquish with 9:27 left. 

Cal Clutterbuck added an empty net goal with 52.6 seconds left to send the Islander fans home happy and with a winning memory of what could be their last visit to Nassau Coliseum, the Islanders winning by a 3-1 margin and forcing a Game 7 on Monday night in Washington.

Other stuff…

-- In the post-2005 lockout era, this was the third time that the Caps lost a Game 6 on the road with an opportunity to close out the series.  In the other two instances – against Montreal in 2010 and against the New York Rangers in 2013 – the Caps lost Game 7 at home.

-- This was the third time in the series in which the Caps outshot the Islanders (39-38), the first of those games that the Caps lost.

-- Alex Ovechkin was on ice for all four goal scored in the game.  That, of course, is not a good thing in that he was on ice for all three goals against.

-- The Caps had a 40-33 edge in the faceoff circle, but that is somewhat deceiving.  Jay Beagle accounts for the margin, going 15-for-19 (78.9 percent).

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov had six shots on goal, giving him 13 in his last two games and 20 for the series.  He is second to Ovechkin (27) in shots on goal.

-- Tom Wilson, who has been a physical presence in this series, skated only seven shifts and 3:41 in this game.  A third of that came on one shift in the second period (1:12).

-- This was the first time that the Capitals scored a power play goal in a playoff game and lost since they dropped a 3-2 overtime decision to the New York Rangers in Game 5 of the 2012 Eastern Conference semifinals, a game in which they went 1-for-4 with the man advantage.  The Caps had gone five straight games with a win when scoring a power play goal.

-- Despite the loss, Braden Holtby’s save percentage inched up ever so slightly.  Saving 35 of 37 shots (.946 for the game) left him at .945 in five games in the post season, fourth in the league.

-- John Carlson had 11 shot attempts for the game to lead all players for both teams.  He is fourth among NHL defensemen in shots on goal in the post season (17).

-- The Caps killed the only Islander power play they faced, making them 13-for-13 in this series, the only team to have a perfect penalty kill in the first round.

In the end...

If practice makes perfect, the Capitals will come out on top on Monday night.  They will be playing their eighth Game 7 in the last eight years, their sixth on home ice.  Of their previous five Games 7 on home ice they have won just once, riding a late Sergei Fedorov goal over the glove of Henrik Lundqvist to beat the Rangers, 2-1, in 2009.  In the other four games the Caps were outscored by a 16-5 margin.

The Caps get a chance to drive a stake through the heart of the demon who made their lives miserable in one of those Games 7 – Jaroslav Halak -- who beat the Caps in Game 7 of the 2010 Eastern Conference semifinal as a member of the Montreal Canadiens.  The Caps will not have a grizzled veteran such as Sergei Fedorov to lead them in that quest.  No, this one is on the players who studied at the master’s knee when they beat the Rangers back in 2009.  It is their turn as veterans to lead now.  For Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom, their time has come.  We will see if they are up to that challenge.

Caps Win! -- Some More Thoughts on Game 5

You can read our recap of the Washington Capitals' 5-1 win over the New York Islanders in Game 5 of their Eastern Conference quarterfinal series here, but here are few more fun facts to impress your friends to start your day...

-- This was the 16th time in the Alex Ovechkin/Nicklas Backstrom era in which the neither Ovechkin nor Backstrom scored in a post season game.  The win made the Caps’ record in such games 4-12. 

-- The five goals in a win was the first time the Caps scored more than four goals in a playoff win on home ice since beating the Montreal Canadiens, 6-5, in overtime of Game 2 of the 2010 Eastern Conference quarterfinals.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov’s two goals was the first time a Caps rookie scored twice in a post-season game since Marcus Johansson had a pair in a 4-3 win over the New York Rangers on April 20, 2011.

-- Jay Beagle won seven of 12 faceoffs last night.  By itself that is not overwhelming, but he is third in faceoff winning percentage among all NHL skaters in the post season (62.0 percent).  Nicklas Backstrom is fifth (59.8 percent).

-- The 41 shots on goal for the Caps was the first time they cleared 40 shots in a playoff game that ended in regulation since they recorded 42 shots on goal in Game 7 of the 2010 Eastern Conference quarterfinals, a 2-1 loss to the Montreal Canadiens and goaltender Jaroslav Halak, who they torched for five goals last night.

-- The Caps have held opponents to fewer than 30 shots on goal at Verizon Center for six consecutive games (the Islanders had 23 shots last night).  The last team to hit the 30 shots on goal mark on Capitals ice was the New York Rangers in Game 1 of the 2013 Eastern Conference quarterfinals, a 3-1 Capitals win.

-- Brooks Laich’s goal was a particularly welcome occurrence.  He had not scored a post season goal since May 7, 2012, in a 3-2 overtime loss to the Rangers.  It was only a six-game streak without a goal, owing to Laich’s injuries in 2013 and the Caps missing the post season in 2014, but it seemed like a long time.

-- Karl Alzner is tied for sixth among defensemen in points in the post season (3), tied for first in goals (2).  He leads all defensemen in shooting percentage (40.0).

-- No team has allowed fewer third-period goals than the Caps in the post season (1).

-- The Caps are 8-3 in series in which they won Game 5.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Things to Think About After Four Games

Four games into their first round playoff series, the Washington Capitals and the New York Islanders are tied in games won, 2-2.  Though they are even, one would not say that they got to their position in the same fashion.  For the Capitals, one can see what they have done well and, just as important, what they need to do better.  For example…

-- Scoring at even strength.  The Islanders have ten goals in this series, nine of them scored at five a side, the other into an empty net.  On the other side, the Caps have seven goals in the series, six at full and even strength, one on the power play.  A 5-on-5 goals scored/goals allowed ratio of 0.78 (11th among 16 playoff teams) is not a lasting recipe for success.  They need to do better here.

-- Shots.  We have long been of a mind that shots matter.  In the Islanders, the Caps are facing a team that finished second in the regular season in shots per game (33.8, second to Chicago’s 33.9).  The Caps have shaved a couple of shots off that average in the first four games, the Islanders averaging 31.8 shots per game (ranked seventh).  The total shot attempts favor the Islanders, but not by as large a margin as one might think for a team whose principle traits include speed and possession.  New York is averaging 64.4 shot attempts per 60 minutes in the series, while the Caps are averaging 62.1 attempts per 60 minutes.  It is an area that could stand improvement for the Caps, but the situation here is not of the dire sort.

-- Forward scoring.  The Caps have seven goals from forwards in this series.  That is a bit disappointing, but the problem here is the utter lack of balance.  Nicklas Backstrom has half of the goals from forwards (three), Alex Ovechkin has a pair, and Marcus Johansson and Jason Chimera have one apiece.  Joel Ward, Troy Brouwer, Jay Beagle, and Evgeny Kuznetsov all are averaging more than 15 minutes of ice time a game through four contests, and none of them have scored.  Ward has a pair of assists, and Beagle has one among that quartet, but the Caps have to start getting production out of the second and third lines in this series.

-- Power play.  The best power play in the league this season (25.3 percent) is getting few chances (seven in four games, tied for fewest among 16 playoff teams) and is converting at barely half the regular season rate (14.3 percent/11th).  The Islanders have been able to muffle the Caps’ man advantage, allowing only 11 shots on goal in 12:54 of Capitals power play ice time.  And that has been a product of limiting the shots on goal from Alex Ovechkin, who has four of those 11 shots on goal for the Caps.

-- Penalty killing.  Meanwhile, on the other side of the special teams divide, the Caps are the only team (knock on wood) with a perfect penalty killing record in the post season.  The Caps are 10-for-10 over the four games.  In getting to that mark they allowed the Islanders 20 shots on goal in 20 power play minutes.  A big part of that has been holding the Islanders’ top power play goal scorers – John Tavares (13) and Brock Nelson (10) – to a minimum of shots.  Nelson has four power play shots in the four games, and Tavares did not register his first power play shot on goal until Game 4 (he finished with two).

-- Momentum.  This is a feature that one might be prone to viewing through rose-colored lenses, but consider this.  The Islanders outscored the Caps by a 7-2 margin over the first 94:09 of the series, a 4-1 win in Game 1 and a 3-1 lead they took in the second period of Game 2.  Since then, the Caps have outscored the Islanders by a 6-3 margin over the last 157:15 of the series.

-- Best of three.  Home cookin’ isn’t an advantage if the cook can’t boil water.  On paper, the Caps should have an advantage.  But be careful here.  The Caps were 6-6-0 in their last 12 games of the regular season, and in the post-2005 lockout era they are just 17-16 in playoff games at Verizon Center (1-1 in this series).  It is the Caps' inability to win on home ice that is arguably the biggest source of disappointment in their post season record since the 2005 lockout.

In the end…

The Caps – both this team and as a franchise – have been here before.  Twice since the 2005 lockout the Caps have returned home to a Game 5 having split the first four games of a series.  In 2009 they lost to the Pittsburgh Penguins, 4-3, in overtime on an own goal:

In 2013 the Caps won Game 5 against the New York Rangers, 2-1, in overtime at Verizon Center, courtesy of Mike Ribeiro:

We would just as soon the Caps make quick work of the Islanders in this contest, but there are things that the Caps need to work on to make that happen and take a stranglehold in the series.

One for Our Backy...and One More for the Road...

Eastern Conference Quarterfinal - Game 4: Capitals 2 - Islanders 1 (OT)

The Washington Capitals ground out a hard 2-1 win on the road last night to even their playoff series against the New York Islanders at two games apiece. For the second straight game it took extra time to settle the affair, this time the ending being happier for the Caps.

It was Nicklas Backstrom who settled things 11:09 into the first overtime on one of the stranger plays of the series. It started with a faceoff in the Islanders’ end to the left of goaltender Jaroslav Halak. Neither Backstrom nor John Tavares could win the draw cleanly, but Backstrom was a bit quicker on the second pull, directing the puck to Alex Ovechkin at the edge of the circle. Ovechkin got a shot off, but it was muffled by Tavares, whose stick appeared to break as a result. The puck went to the corner where Joel Ward beat Johnny Boychuk to it and slid it up the boards to Backstrom. From there, Backstrom skated the puck up the wall with Tavares in his wake. Tavares had to drop his broken stick, and he tried to push Backstrom off the puck. That failed to work, and the push created separation between the two, giving Backstrom room to fling a shot at the Islander net. Ward created enough of a screen on Halak that the goalie never saw the shot coming from the right point, and the puck sailed past his blocker to give the Caps the win.

Before Backstrom’s highlight, the teams exchanged first period goals. Alex Ovechkin scored what would be the Caps’ first first-goal of the series 13:06 into the opening frame. Off a Backstrom faceoff win in the Islanders’ end, John Carlson threw the puck at the net looking for a rebound. Instead, Ovechkin skated across the slot as the puck was going through and redirected the puck past Halak’s blocker to give the Caps the lead.

New York tied the game with just 12.6 seconds left in the period when Casey Cizikas put back a rebound of a Cal Clutterbuck shot that knuckled just enough to give goalie Braden Holtby difficulty in directing the rebound out of harm’s way. That would do it for the scoring for more than 50 minutes, until Backstrom would end things in happy fashion for the Caps and send the series back to Washington tied, the Caps regaining the home-ice advantage.

Other stuff…

-- Nicklas Backstrom, who had gone 24 consecutive games without a goal, now has a goal in three consecutive games in this series. It is the first time he scored goals in three consecutive games since going three straight, March 16-20, 2014. It is the first time he scored goals in three consecutive games since he had a three-fer against Pittsburgh, May 6-9, 2009 in Game 3-5 of that series.

-- With his two-point night, Backstrom took over the league scoring lead for the post-season (3-3-6).

-- Alex Ovechkin also had a two-point night, his first multi-point game in the post season since he had a goal and an assist in a 4-3 loss to the Boston Bruins in Game 3 of their opening round series in 2012.

-- Ovechkin had 18 of the Caps’ total of 66 shot attempts and eight of their 30 total shots on goal. Backstrom had five shots and eight shot attempts, giving the duo 13 of 30 shots and 26 of 66 attempts.

-- The Islanders won the possession battle again, at least in terms of shots and attempts, out-shooting the Caps by a 37-30 margin and out-attempting them, 88-66.

-- For the second time in this series the Caps were awarded only one power play. Only St. Louis, with six power play chances so far, has fewer power play opportunities than the Caps (7) in the post season.  Oddly enough, the Caps won both games in which they were held to a single power play opportunity.

-- The Caps got the overtime winner, but they managed only a single goal in regulation, the sixth time in seven games they were stuck on that number in regulation against goalie Jaroslav Halak.

-- The game might have turned in a 7:12 span of time in the second period.  The Caps took three minor penalties, giving the Islanders six minutes in power play time.  The Caps put on a clinic killing off all three penalties, allowing the Islanders six power play shots, seven in all over that 7:12 span of ice time.  It ran the string of consecutive power plays nullified to ten in this series and 13 overall, dating back to the regular season finale against the Rangers.

-- It was a tale of two zones for Backstrom on faceoffs.  He was 7-for-11 in the offensive zone (63.6 percent), 1-for-8 in the defensive zone (12.5 percent).

-- Braden Holtby had another fine game, stopping 36 of 37 shots.  Among goalies appearing in more than one game, he is second in save percentage (.943) to Chicago’s Scott Darling (.969).  He is the only goalie having appeared in more than one game whose save percentage against the opponent’s power play is 1.000 (19-for-19).

In the end…

If the Caps win this series, that 7:12 span of time killing penalties on the road could very well be viewed rightly as the turning point.  It took the wind out of the Islanders’ sails, the New Yorkers recording only 16 shots on goal in the last 40:25 of the game following that sequence. 

At the other end, the Caps fulfilled the adage that at this time of year the stars have to play like stars.  Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin did it in ways that are not at the top of their signature moves list, Ovechkin with a greasy little redirect from the slot and Backstrom with a whip-like shot from long range through a clot of bodies hassling the goaltender.

It was a case of winning by any means possible, by going outside the box to find a way to win.  At this time of year, the easy, tried-and-true recipes do not always and, in fact, less frequently work.  Teams and players have to find other ways – harder ways – to find success.  The Caps did that and took their home ice advantage back.