For the Capitals, Everything Changes but the Ending

May 13th.  That is a date that should have meaning for Caps fans, although we guarantee they will not like the reason. Last night, the night of May 13th, the Caps lost Game 7 of their Eastern Conference semi-final match against the New York Rangers.  It is the third time in the last six trips to the post season that the Caps were eliminated on that date.  They dropped a 6-2 decision to the Pittsburgh Penguins on that date in 2009 in a Game 7; they lost to the Rangers by a 5-0 margin on that date in 2012 in a Game 7.

In fact, in the 40 year history of the franchise, the Capitals have played hockey past May 13th only twice.  Once was in their 1998 run to the Stanley Cup final; the other was in 1995, when the playoffs started later than usual owing to a lockout that delayed the start of the season.  Perhaps fittingly, the Caps lost all three games played after May 13th that year, Games 5, 6, and 7 of their first round series against the Pittsburgh Penguins, blowing a 3-1 series lead and bowing out in seven games.

Every year is different, every team is different, but for the Capitals it always ends the same way, a loss before the trees have filled in from their long winter nap.  One supposes, perhaps, that this year can honestly be considered different. 

One could say that the team the Caps iced for Game 7 against the Rangers last night is not as accomplished as the one that went to the Stanley Cup final in 1998, but it is younger and with more promise than that team. 

One could say that it did not go as far as the 1990 team that reached the Prince of Wales Conference final, but neither is it one whose success is largely built on an incredibly hot and incredibly unexpected streak by a heretofore (and ever after) little known player.

But we have been here before, too.  We were here in 1986 when the Caps had young, up and coming stars such as Scott Stevens and Bob Carpenter to support stars entering their prime in Mike Gartner, Rod Langway, and Bengt Gustafsson.  We were here in 2008 when Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green, and Alexander Semin were the up-and-comers pushing veterans like Michael Nylander (later Sergei Fedorov after Nylander went down to injury) and Tom Poti.  We were here when the Caps promoted the fact that they had so many first round draft picks in their lineup (that 2008 team had no fewer than a dozen former first round draft picks dress for them).

Now, we can see our way to a view that says Evgeny Kuznetsov and Andre Burakovsky will go into next season with a full season of NHL hockey under their belts, and they (and the team) will be much better for it.  We can imagine a team with these up-and-comers matched to stars who remain among the best in the game at their respective positions in Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom.  We can see in the distance a bevy of additional talent that might make their contributions down the road -- Jakub Vrana, Madison Bowey, Philipp Grubauer, Riley Barber.  We can conjure a vision that this is not a team coached by first-timers behind an NHL bench, that the team is being led by coaches who have been though the best and the worst, and know how to get players to row together as a team instead of pulling in different directions individually. 

But we’ve had those visions before, too.  And we can be snapped back into reality in an instant.  That 1986 team rolled through the regular season to finish with a then-record 50 wins and 107 standings points, and swept the New York Islanders in the first round of the playoffs.  They were less than three minutes from taking a three-games-to-one lead against the New York Rangers in the second round when Bob Brooke scored with 2:35 left in regulation to tie the game, then scored less than three minutes into overtime to tie the series, the only playoff overtime goal he would score in his career.  The Rangers swept the last two games of that series, and the Caps’ best team to that point and arguably best chance to win a Stanley Cup was left in shreds.

That 2008 team steamrolled its way through the last half of the season, posting a 37-17-7 record after Bruce Boudreau replaced Glen Hanlon as head coach, including an 11-1-0 record to close the season to reach the playoffs.  Then they came back from a three-games-to-one deficit against the Philadelphia Flyers and a 2-1 deficit in Game 7 to force overtime.  Then, hope became despair and then anguish in what seemed like an instant.  A tripping penalty put the Flyers on a power play, and even with that, the Capitals almost killed off the two minutes shorthanded.  Almost.  With just nine seconds left on the penalty, Joffrey Lupul put back a rebound that goalie Cristobal Huet looked for in a different direction, and the opportunity passed for the Capitals.

Virtually the same team reached the post season the following year and got a taste of what it was to win that moment, to turn an anxious one to a joyful one, when Sergei Fedorov took a pass from Matt Bradley, sped down the right wing wall as the minutes were dwindling to a few in a tied Game 7 against the New York Rangers.  When he got to the right wing faceoff circle he slammed on the brakes and snapped a shot into a space perhaps a foot square over the left shoulder of goalie Henrik Lundqvist to send fans into pandemonium and the team into the next round.

And there, they would find despair once more in a moment that appeared and disappeared in a blink.  Against perhaps their most hated rival, the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Caps fought to a split of the first six games, winning the sixth game of the series in overtime in Pittsburgh to force that Game 7 on home ice.  And then the moment came, three minutes into the contest.  A blocked shot, a breakaway, the puck on the star’s stick, a crowd coming to its feet…the shot, turned away.  A moment presented itself and then was gone in a game the Caps would never contest from that point further.

This year, the moment came late in what could have been a series-clinching game, one that would send the Caps to the conference final for only the third time in their 40-year history.  They scratched out a goal mid-way through the third period for the only score of the contest to that point, and then tried to nurse that slim lead for the last nine minutes.  Then the moment came, n innocent dump in from just outside the blue line by the Rangers.  Defenseman Brooks Orpik tried to bat the puck out of the air and back into the neutral zone, but missed.  The puck ended up on the stick of Derek Stepan, who dropped it back to Chris Kreider, and from one knee he fired a shot that somehow threaded its way past a screen and past Braden Holtby into the net to tie the game.  It was a game the Caps would lose in overtime, on another seeing-eye shot that deflected off defenseman Tim Gleason and past Holtby.  The moment came…the moment passed.

This morning, Caps fans will wake up with the idea that although the team failed to advance past the second round once more, there lies promise in the future for what this team accomplished, the devotion it has among players and coaches to playing the “right way,” and for the blend of young and veteran talent they will bring to camp in the fall.

However, there is still that ending, there is still that inability to grab hold of that moment that presents itself.  For the Caps, it is almost always one that slips through their fingers, to be taken up by their opponent.  It was true 30 years ago, and it was true last night.  Perhaps things will be different next season, or the year after that.  There is not a Capitals fan anywhere who wishes for anything else.  But for now, we are left with a bitter truth about this franchise.  Ownership changes, front office personnel changes, players change, new fans replace old, but every year ends in the same sad way, and that is what is so frustrating and agonizing, the sameness of it all.

The utter sameness of it all.

Eastern Conference Semifinal - Game 7: Rangers 2 - Capitals 1 (OT)

In the end, hockey is a sport that can provide the ultimate in joy and the ultimate in cruelty in the blink of an eye. There is nothing in professional team sports that compares to overtime in a Game 7 of a Stanley Cup playoff series. There isn’t often much warning when the deciding moment comes, but when it does the team that scores the deciding goal gathers as a pulsating clot of players embracing in a moment of well-deserved joy, while the team scored upon is generally littered all over the ice, left individually to drag themselves to their feet to form into a line to congratulate the winners in the series-ending handshake.

For the third time in team history the Capitals found themselves the latter as the New York Rangers scored 11:24 into overtime to win Game 7, 2-1, and advance to the Eastern Conference finals against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Derek Stepan followed up a rebound of a Dan Girardi shot and fired it past a diving goalie Braden Holtby to send the crowd at Madison Square Garden into a frenzy.

Before that, the game had all the look of what was the rest of the series, two teams that could get no space from one another, either on the ice or on the scoreboard. Alex Ovechkin, who famously proclaimed that the Caps would extend their season with a win on this night, opened the scoring in the 13th minute of the contest. It was a goal that would foretell the end, in a way. The play started with a faceoff win by Nicklas Backstrom from Derek Stepan, The puck made its way to Ovechkin at the left wing wall. He battled with defenseman Ryan McDonagh long enough to get the puck back to Backstrom in the faceoff circle. Backstrom moved the puck to Marcus Johansson at the bottom of the circle, and Johansson then found Ovechkin circling into the high slot. From between the circles Ovechkin wristed the puck past the glove of goalie Henrik Lundqvist, and the Caps had a 1-0 lead.

It was a good sign for the Caps, who were 41 in the post season when scoring the first goal. However, the Rangers denied the Caps any opportunity to add to that lead and tied the game themselves early in the second period. Late in a Ranger power play Kevin Hayes snuck behind the defense on the weak side and redirected a cross ice feed from J.T. Miller behind Holtby to tie the contest.

After that, the game was in the hands of the goaltenders, as it had been for much of the series. Holtby and Lundqvist led their teams through regulation and into overtime. There, in the twelfth minute, it would be a faceoff loss, this time Eric Fehr losing a draw to Stepan, that would lead to a goal that would send the Rangers on and the Caps into the post season. Too soon…again.

Other stuff…

-- The little things. There are folks who say faceoffs don’t matter. Don’t believe them. A team cannot score without the puck, and when you lose a faceoff you end up trying to chase the puck down. The Caps lost a faceoff, chased it around the zone, and were left reacting to things instead of forcing play. It was cruel irony, in a way, as the Caps won 47 of 79 faceoffs in the game (59.5 percent).

-- What the Caps could not do was convert their own small victories in the circle in the offensive end.  Washington was 16-for-24 on offensive zone draws (66.7 percent).  Nicklas Backstrom was 8-for-11 (72.7 percent).

-- The top line got off the schneid – Ovechkin scored the goal, while Backstrom and Johansson recorded the assists. It was the first time Ovechkin and Backstrom both recorded points in a game since Game 2.

-- For what it is worth, Braden Holtby finished his post season as the goalie leader in minutes (805:43) and save percentage (.944), and was second in goals against average (1.71) among goalies appearing in at least five games.

-- Eric Fehr returned to the lineup, but there was no fairy tale ending there, either.  Less than eight minutes of ice time, no shots on goal, and he was the victim of the last faceoff of the season for the Caps.

-- The Caps finished the post season 1-3 in overtime games.  All-time, they are 23-30 in extra time in the playoffs.  Since Joe Juneau scored in overtime to send the Caps to their only Stanley Cup final, the Caps are 10-18 in overtime games in the post season.

-- Did Alex Ovechkin deliver on his “guarantee?”  No, the Caps didn’t win.  But a goal, six shots on goal (tying his high in this series), three hits.  Let’s not hear any nonsense about his not showing up when the heat was turned up.

-- Troy Brouwer.  You can only shake your head.  No goals in the series (none in 14 playoff games), no shots on goal in Game 7 in almost 21 minutes of ice time.

-- More shaking of the head… Brooks Laich.  No goals in the series, in fact, no points.  He did not record a point in his last nine games of the post season and managed a total of seven shots on goal in those nine games.

-- We really and truly thought Mike Green was going to be the hero in this game.  As it is, it is entirely likely that Caps fans have seen him in the red, white, and blue for the last time.  A few ticks under 19 minutes in ice time, no shots on goal, one attempt, two blocked shots, and two penalties, one of which leading to the Rangers power play goal in the second period.

In the end...

What were you expecting?  The Caps have made it their signature not just to lose games like this but to do it in the cruelest way imaginable.  You can only laugh at the fact that a team that led the league in faceoff winning percentage ended up losing a defensive zone draw that led to the game-winning, series-clinching goal.  And what led to that defensive zone faceoff?  It was the fire that the Caps played with all series long – an icing call. 

Only one team in franchise history played more one-goal games in the post season than the 2014-2015 Capitals.  Their 11 one-goal decisions this year is eclipsed only by the 13 such decisions the Caps played in the 2012 post season under Dale Hunter.  As it turned out, in both of those years the Caps had a winning record in one-goal decisions – 7-6 in 2012 and 6-5 this season.  In both of those years, however, they lost their last such decision…in Game 7…on the road…2-1...to the New York Rangers.

You can’t make this stuff up.  More’s the pity.

Eastern Conference Semifinal - Game 5: Rangers 2 - Capitals 1 (OT)

They call a seven-game series a “long” series, but it can all change so quickly.  Last night, the Washington Capitals went from being within two minutes of ending the season for the New York Rangers to facing the possibility that they will be playing their last game of the year on home ice on Sunday.

Taking a 1-0 lead into the final 120 seconds of the game, the Capitals suffered Chris Kreider one-timing a lightning bolt that snuck through goalie Braden Holtby’s pads to extend the Rangers’ season to at least an overtime.  In that overtime, a classic mistake – a turnover at their own blue line – led the Caps allowing the Rangers to attack in numbers, and it was Ryan McDonagh taking a pass from Derek Stepan and wristing a shot past Holtby to push the series to a Game 6 in Washington on Sunday.

Other stuff…

-- So often in the heat of a playoff game, a player can go from hero to goat.  Last night’s most recent example was Curtis Glencross.  It was his goal mid-way through the third period that put the Rangers on the brink of elimination.  His first goal of the playoffs came on a second effort.  It started with Tom Wilson poking the puck off the stick of the Rangers’ Kevin Klein as the latter was winding up to take a shot.  The puck slid to the boards where Matt Niskanen beat the Rangers’ Keith Yandle to the prize.  Niskanen swept the puck into the neutral zone where Glencross was already off to the races.  Breaking in alone on goalie Henrik Lundqvist, he fired the puck into the goalie’s glove.  Lundqvist did not handle the shot cleanly, and the puck landed at his feet.  Glencross followed up his own shot, chipping it over the falling Lundqvist and over the goal line.

-- Then Glencross became the goat.  In the tenth minute of overtime he took a pass from Mike Green at his own blue line.  He tried to move it along, cross-ice, but Jesper Fast knocked down the attempted pass and skated the puck down the right wing boards.  He found Stepan entering the zone late, but instead of taking the shot himself, Stepan left the puck for McDonagh coming into the play after jumping off the bench.  McDonagh leaned into a shot and it appeared to hit Caps defenseman Tim Gleason before whistling past Holtby to give the Rangers another chance to extend the series on Sunday.

-- In series clinching games in the post-2005 lockout era, the Capitals are 3-10.  On the other hand, the Rangers won their ninth straight game on home ice when facing elimination.

-- However this series ends, it is one for the ages as a goaltending battle.  Through five games, Holtby is 3-2,  1.36, .959, with one shutout; Lundqvist is 2-3, 1.57, .944.

-- Part of the Capitals’ problem in this game was not so much shots as who was getting them.  Of the Caps’ 29 shots on goal, nine of them came from Joel Ward (5) and Jason Chimera (4).  No other Capital had more than two.  It was balanced, but not in the sort of way that could – or did – lead to much offense.

-- Slow starts continued to plague the Caps.  The Rangers out-shot Washington by an 11-2 margin in the game’s first 8:14.

-- Marcus Johansson, Brooks Laich, and Troy Brouwer came into this series with a combined 166 games of post season experience.  None recorded a point last night; none have a goal in this series.

-- Alex Ovechkin was 4-4-8 in his first nine games of this post season but is without a point in his last three games.

-- Nicklas Backstrom was held without a point last night has had only an assist in his last eight post season games.

-- Odd Calendar Fact… the loss last night made the Caps 0-4 all-time in playoff games on May 8^th.  All four losses were on the road.

In the end…

Last night it was a case of the Rangers getting just enough from skaters from whom they need contributions – Derek Stepan (two assists), Chris Kreider (game-tying goal), and Ryan McDonagh (game-winning goal).  The same could not be said of the Caps, who got no points from Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus-Johansson, Troy Brouwer, or the precocious kids (Andre Burakovsky and Evgeny Kuznetsov).

If this is a goaltenders’ series, which it certainly has been to date, Capitals fans have to be pleased with the play and development of Braden Holtby.  But lurking is the thought that at the other end of the ice is a goaltender who might be more likely to extend that run of fine play.   The Caps had a chance to drive a stake into the heart of the Rangers and deny Henrik Lundqvist any more opportunities to frustrate the Caps.  They could not take advantage of that opportunity.  That opportunity will come knocking again on Sunday evening.  This time, the Caps had better answer the door.

Washington Capitals -- The Strangeness of Familiar Territory

Well, here we are.  The Washington Capitals hold a three-games-to-one lead in their Eastern Conference semifinal series against the New York Rangers.  It is the 11^th time in team history that the Caps have held such a lead in games in a post season series.  To the surprise of no Capitals fan, no team has lost more series when holding a 3-1 lead in games (four times).

This is the haunting context of the next 36 hours as the Caps prepare for Game 5 in New York on Friday.  Can the Caps close the deal where they have failed so many times before?

Ah, but Caps fans, take heart.  This really is different, and here is why.  Of the 10 previous times in which the Caps took a 3-1 lead in games in a seven-game series, seven times they held home ice advantage.  In those seven series, Washington lost the series three times – 1987 to the New York Islanders, 1992 to the Pittsburgh Penguins, and 2010 to the Montreal Canadiens. 

This will be the fourth time that the Caps have taken a 3-1 lead in games into a Game 5 as the lower-seeded team, starting the series on the road.  In the previous three instances they won the series twice.  In 1990 the Caps took a 3-1 lead on the Rangers in the Patrick Division final, closing out the Rangers by a 2-1 margin in Game 5 in New York on an goal by John Druce 6:48 into overtime at Madison Square Garden.  In 1994 the Caps took a 3-1 lead over the Pittsburgh Penguins after starting their Eastern Conference quarterfinal series in Pittsburgh.  The Caps lost Game 5 in Steel City, but they won Game 6 in Washington, 6-3, to take the series. 

It was only in 1995 in which the Caps lost a series after taking a 3-1 lead in games, and it took an extraordinary event to allow the Penguins to avoid being ushered to the exits in Game 5.  The Penguins rallied from behind four times to eventually take a 6-5 overtime win over the Caps to force a Game 6.  The Caps lost that game, 7-1, then were shutout, 3-0, in Game 7 for their only series loss when taking a 3-1 lead in games as the lower seed.

There is a quote from that Game 5 by then Capitals forward (now television analyst) Keith Jones that serves as a caution to the Capitals as they head to New York in an attempt to finish off the Rangers:

"Backs against the wall, they came out with pride.  We didn't bury that pride…”

No one doubts that the New York Rangers will take the ice on Friday nice as a prideful squad.  The Capitals will have a chance to bury that pride and move on.  They will not want to have to try to throw another shovelful of dirt on the Rangers in a Game 7 in that arena.

Eastern Conference Semifinal - Game 3: Capitals 1 - Rangers 0

Sometimes, one is enough. It was enough for the Washington Capitals on Monday night to subdue the New York Rangers in Game 3 of their playoff series, a goal by Jay Beagle 7:31 into the second period being the game’s only score on a night where both goaltenders shined.

It was a matter of persistence for Beagle on the game-winner. After a scoreless first period and seven minutes of similar hockey to start the second period, the Caps dumped the puck into the Rangers’ end. Troy Brower fought off a pair of Rangers long enough to allow Andre Burakovsky to gather the puck at the bottom of the left wing circle. Burakovsky backhanded the puck out to Beagle filling in down the middle late on the play. Beagle’s initial shot was turned away by goalie Henrik Lundqvist, but Beagle hunted the puck down behind the Rangers’ net. He circled behind the cage and from below the goal line threw the puck in front. The puck hit the skate of defenseman Keith Yandle, then ticked off the left skate of Lundqvist and in to give the Caps the only goal they would need to skate off with a 1-0 victory and take a 2-1 series lead over the Rangers.

Other stuff…

-- The goal was Beagle’s first of the post season after a lot of frustrating near misses. He has scored one goal in each of his last three post seasons covering 29 games. However, it was his fourth point in the post season, and four points more than doubles his career playoff output (now 3-4-7 over 33 games).

-- For the seventh time in ten post season games and tenth time in their last 16 games overall, the Caps had two or fewer power play chances (two in this game).

-- In stopping all 30 shots he faced, goalie Braden Holtby took over the lead in save percentage among goaltenders still playing in the post season (.949) as well as goals against average (1.54). Since the 2004-2005 lockout, 31 goaltenders have appeared in at least 20 post season games.  Holtby has the best save percentage of any goaltender among them: .936.  He has the second best goals against average at 1.89 (Chris Osgood: 1.80 in 42 games).

-- The Rangers won the shots attempted battle, 69-49.

-- Andre Burakovsky recorded his first career post season point with his primary assist on the game-winning goal. For Troy Brouwer, who recorded the secondary assist, it was his first point of the series. Neither Burakovsky nor Brouwer recorded a shot on goal, however.

-- Matt Niskanen is struggling to be heard from on the offensive side of the score sheet in this series, but he led all players with seven blocked shots.

-- It was the first time in seven games against the Rangers this season, regular season and playoffs, that Alex Ovechkin failed to record a goal.

-- Beagle (10-for-12) and Nicklas Backstrom (15-for-20) owned the faceoff circle in this game. Beagle is the leader in post season faceoff winning percentage (67.5), while Backstrom is seventh (56.7).

-- With the game in doubt late, the Caps allowed the Rangers only one shot on goal in the last 3:13 of the game, although taking two icings in the last half minute made for some anxious moments.

-- Is Rick Nash frustrated? He had 15 shot attempts, seven shots on goal (including that only shot in the last 3:13) and had only a minus-1 to show for it.

In the end…

There are two takeaways from this game.  The first is that at first blush the Caps might have benefited from a measure of luck, in this game and in the series.  A goal with 1.3 seconds left in regulation time to win Game 1.  A goal that banks off not one, but two opponents’ skates for the game winner in another win in Game 3.  But look more closely.  Those plays were finished because of little things that occurred before the goal lamp was lit.  Nicklas Backstrom pressing hard on a forecheck to free a puck and Alex Ovechkin playing the role of playmaker instead of finisher on Joel Ward’s game winner in Game 1.  Then last night, Evgeny Kuznetsov dumped the puck into the Rangers’ end instead of trying to lengthen his shift and do something on his own (think the kid hasn’t grown a bit into the NHL game?).  Troy Brouwer occupied two defenders to allow Andre Burakovsky to collect a loose puck.  Jay Beagle headed for the net and followed his own shot.  Little things – the right things – add up in the end, and this team does them better than Capitals playoff teams of recent vintage.

Second, in what looks as if it might be a long series, your goaltender is going to have to steal a game or two. Braden Holtby did just that in Game 3. It is not often one can say that of a Capitals goaltender, and that is a big difference between this edition of the Capitals and those of years past. The Caps certainly played with fire, especially late in the contest, the Rangers out-attempting Washington by a 21-13 margin at 5-on-5 in the third period and getting the period’s only power play. And those late icings didn’t help.  But again, the little things – Backstrom beat Derick Brassard on both faceoffs following those icing calls in the last minute.  Not insignificantly, Backstrom blocked the Rangers’ last two shot attempts, more evidence of doing other things a team needs to do to win when the points are not coming easily. 

On a night on which the Rangers found a way to silence Alex Ovechkin, the team as a whole did a lot of little things right, and Holtby stepped up with a performance that cements his place among the best post season goaltenders in club history and among the best in the game. The Caps will need that level of performance from everyone as the teams head to Game 4 on Wednesday night.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR -- So, you want cheese with that?

“I just saw Boyle on the ice after it, but some of the guys saw [the hit] and it sounds like a charge… His back is turned the whole way, and he’s just standing there freezing the puck. He takes a run at him. It seems cheap.”

-- Ranger defenseman Marc Staal

“There should have been a penalty called against Backstrom, but the greater misfeasance belonged to the Blueshirts, who seemed to freeze at the lack of a whistle, and presented no opposition to the ensuing winning play on which Alex Ovechkin’s beauty of a centering feed against the grain found Ward all alone to the goaltender’s left.”

-- New York Post columnist Larry Brooks

“I saw Boyler get hit and go down, and I kind of hesitated just to kind of see…I knew he was down, and I thought they were going to blow (the whistle)."

-- Ranger defenseman Ryan McDonagh

“I haven’t seen the replay but knowing Boyler, my guess is it was bad, and that allowed them to get that chance…If Boyler doesn’t go down, they don’t get that chance. It’s tough to take, the late goal, but it’s how it happened that’s tough to take.”

-- Ranger forward Martin St. Louis

"I'm not going to comment on the referees. Don't ask me about it…Ask me anything else, but don't ask me about that."

-- Ranger coach Alain Vigneault

To be fair about it, if that was Derek Stepan leveling Mike Green in the corner in that manner before a Ranger goal, a lot of Caps fans, players, and local journalists might be uttering words similar to those uttered after last night’s game.  And, there are folks on the Ranger side of the divide who think the Backstrom hit was within the rules, a “hockey” play in the critical dying seconds of regulation time.

But this is the playoffs, and this is for the Cup.  It was quite a finish to the start of this series between two teams and fan bases that need no further encouragement ramp up the intensity.

Eastern Conference Semifinal - Game 1: Capitals 2 - Rangers 1

There is always that phrase, “play a full 60 minutes.”  The Washington Capitals took that measure to its full extreme, less 1.3 seconds, on Thursday night as Joel Ward scored with that much time left on the clock in regulation time to give the Capitals a 2-1 win in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series at Madison Square Garden.

The game-winning play started innocently enough with Alex Ovechkin skating the puck into the Ranger end.  He tried a curl and drag move, but the puck rolled off his stick where Ryan McDonagh collected it.  He was unable to control it, though, and the puck slid into the corner to the left of goalie Henrik Lundqvist.  Dan Boyle skated in to retrieve it for the Rangers, but he was checked hard against the glass by Nicklas Backstrrom.  The puck squirted free once more, Ovechkin finding it below the Ranger goal line.  He skated along the wall behind Lundqvist, and as Derek Stepan closed on him, Ovechkin dropped the puck back for Joel Ward trailing the play.  Ward had nothing but open ice in front of him, and he wasted no time getting off a shot that slid under Lundqvist’s left pad and in to give the Caps a win in Game 1.

Before that it looked as if the teams would take their battle to overtime, having exchanged single goals over the first 59 minutes.  The Caps opened the scoring in the first period on a power play simply executed.  John Carlson started the play skating out from behind his own net.  As he reached his own blue line, Carlson sent the puck up to Ovechkin along the left wing.  Ovechkin took the puck at the red line and skated down the wing, backing off Boyle into the Ranger zone.  Ovechkin called his own number, wristing a shot through Boyle’s legs and over Lundqvist’s blocker to give the Caps a 1-0 lead at the 18:13 mark of the first period.

That goal held up for almost 40 minutes, but the Rangers tied the game late in the third period.  Capitalizing on pressure in the Caps’ end, Boyle retrieved a loose puck in the corner to the left of goalie Braden Holtby and tried to center the puck.  Jay Beagle got a stick on it, but not enough to clear the zone.  Kevin Hayes grabbed the puck high in the offensive zone and fired a shot through a screen of bodies in front of Holtby.  One of those bodies was Jesper Fast, who redirected the puck past Holtby’s blocker to tie the game at a goal apiece with just 4:39 left in regulation.

It might have been enough to send the contest into extra time, but there was still the matter of there being 60 minutes in regulation, and the Capitals used almost all of them to take Game 1.

Other stuff…

-- The Capitals are 2-5, all-time, when winning Game 1 of a playoff series on the road.  The last time they won a Game 1 on the road was in 2003, a 3-0 win in Tampa.  The Lightning won that series in six games.

-- The New York Rangers still do not have an answer for Alex Ovechkin.  This was the sixth straight game in which Ovechkin scored a goal against the Blueshirts, dating back to January 2014.

-- In what might be the strangest Ovechkin statistic of the night, he was one of three Capitals not credited with a hit.  Marcus Johansson and Curtis Glencross were the others.

-- Nicklas Backstrom had a “heavy” game.  He tied for the team lead in hits with five (with Tom Wilson).

-- The difference in Wilson’s five hits was that he compiled than many in roughly half the ice time (10:07) as Backstrom (20:03).

-- The win was only Braden Holtby’s second in eight tries on Madison Square Garden ice in the post season.  He beat the Rangers, 3-2, in Game 2 of the 2012 Eastern Conference semifinals.

-- Game 1 was the first time this season that the Capitals did not allow the Rangers to score in the first period.  In fact, in three of the four games in the regular season series the Rangers scored a pair of goals in the first period.  When the Caps shut out the Rangers in the first period it broke a streak of five straight games in which New York scored in the first period against Washington.

-- Four of the last six games for the Caps have ended in 2-1 scores, the Caps winning three of them.  There would have been a fifth but for an empty-net goal by Cal Clutterbuck in a 3-1 New York islanders win in Game six of the first round.  Hey, it’s the playoffs.

-- Joel Ward scored on what would be his only shot of the game.  He had three misses, including one off the post behind Lundqvist that might have rendered his late-game heroics unnecessary.

-- How many times does a player go into a corner to retrieve a puck, brace himself for the hit he knows is coming, takes it, and skates away no worse for wear?  Dan Boyle failing to skate away from the hit he took from Nicklas Backstrom was the subtext of the game-winning play.  Was it “boarding?”  Not as much as it was circumstance.  But for the fact that there were less than five seconds left in regulation, Boyle might have moved that puck along the boards, turned away from the hit, and played on.  However, he tried to freeze the puck for those last few seconds, willing to take a hit to make sure that a loose puck did not find its way to a Capital’s stick.  Backstrom finished the play the way players are taught.

In the end…

It’s first to “four,” not first to “one.”  As nice as this win was, and it certainly was, there is that last time the Caps held a 1-0 series lead on the road, the result of a 3-0 shutout of the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2003.  The Caps won Game 2 of that series, too, to bring a 2-0 lead back to Washington, only to fritter it away, losing the next four games.  We do not mean to rain on anyone’s parade here, but there isn’t any parade, yet, either.

All that aside, the Caps demonstrated that they can compete with the Rangers and take the best they have to offer.  And unless the Rangers can find an answer for Alex Ovechkin, this could be a very difficult series for them.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Semifinals: Capitals vs. Rangers

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

One down, and…

OK, let’s just take them one at a time.  Having escaped the first round of the playoffs with a seven-game series win over the New York Islanders, the Washington Capitals take the next step in their Grand Nostalgia Tour of the post season by locking up with the New York Rangers in the Eastern Conference semifinal round.

You will remember that the Caps and Islanders met for the seventh time in the playoffs in Capitals franchise history when they met in Round 1.  Now, the Capitals face a team that they will battle for the ninth time in the post season.  Here is the history:

• 1986 Patrick Division Semifinal – Rangers win best-of-seven, 4-2
• 1990 Patrick Division Final – Capitals win best-of-seven, 4-1
• 1991 Patrick Division Semifinal – Capitals win best-of-seven, 4-2
• 1994 Eastern Conference Quarterfinal – Rangers win best-of-seven, 4-1
• 2009 Eastern Conference Quarterfinal – Capitals win best-of-seven, 4-3
• 2011 Eastern Conference Quarterfinal – Capitals win best-of-seven, 4-1
• 2012 Eastern Conference Semifinal – Rangers win best-of-seven, 4-3
• 2013 Eastern Conference Quarterfinal – Rangers win best-of-seven, 4-3

The Capitals have not faced any team in the post season more frequently than the Rangers, not the Penguins (eight times), not the Islanders (seven), not the Flyers (four).  Each team has won four series, the Caps holding a thin 25-23 edge in games won.

Evolution

This will be the fifth time in seven seasons that the Caps and Rangers faced off in the playoffs, each team having won two of the previous four meetings.  With so many meetings in so narrow a space of time, you might expect that the Caps and Rangers have a fair number of players who are veterans of all four of the recent meetings.  You would be wrong on that score.  In the four series meetings since 2009, here are the skaters who have appeared in at least one game in all of them and who can be expected to play in this series:

The Rangers have completely remade their forward corps since that 2009 meeting, while the Caps have almost replaced their entire defensive squad. 

However, while the skaters have largely been swapped out between 2009 and this season for both teams, the comparison of goalies yields something very different.  Here, for example, are the Capital goaltenders having appeared over the last four series between the clubs:

And here is the list of Ranger goalies having appeared against the Capitals:

But for 40 minutes over two games, Henrik Lundqvist has tended goal for each and every game and minute of the four series played between these two teams since 2009.  There is a certain richness in that four-year record that is interesting.  For example, over his first 21 appearances in that span of games, he won consecutive games only once, that in Games 1 and 2 to open the 2009 series.  However, since he was lit up for five goals on 20 shots in 40 minutes of work in Game 6 of the 2009 series (the second straight game in which he was pulled after two periods), Lundqvist has allowed more than three goals to the Caps only once in 20 post season appearances.  If anything, his most recent performance is even more impressive.  Lundqvist has won four of his last five post season appearances against the Caps, posting shutouts in his last two games against Washington to clinch the 2013 series. As far as the regular season series is concerned, here is how the principals compare:

The Recent History: 2014-2015

The Caps and Rangers met four times this season, and things did not go so well from a Capitals perspective.  If you are going to put lipstick on this pig, first we need it to stand still:

So, what do we make of this?  On a wins-losses basis, the optimism-addled Caps fan might say, “well, they lost the first two games, but then they pasted the Rangers on their own ice and then lost the last game of the season after they already clinched a playoff spot.” 

To that we say, “nice try, Sparky.”  But that does not mean that this was as cut and dried as all that, that the Rangers are the clearly dominant team based on the season series.  The Caps out-attempted the Rangers in shots in three of the four games and tied with them in the fourth (oddly enough, the Caps’ only win).

Where the Caps shot themselves in the foot was early in games.  New York out-scored Washington in the first periods of games by a 7-2 margin and scored the first goal of the game three times (all Ranger wins).  The Caps spent too much time in too many games playing catch-up, and while the third period goal differential in the four games looks better (7-4, Caps), it was not good enough to actually pull victory from the jaws of defeat very often.

Here is a summary of the four games from the 100,000-foot level...

Special Teams

The Caps do not exactly live or die by the power play, but it is an integral part of their success, particularly the power play.  Washington scored a power play in each of the four games this past season, so if they couldn’t parlay that success into wins, at least the Caps established that they can be effective against the Ranger penalty killers.

Overall, the Caps were 4-for-13 (30.8 percent) for the season against the Rangers.  In putting together that mark the Caps had an odd set of coincidences.  In each game, their goals/shots equaled their goals/power play chances.  They had one power play on five chances in their first meeting, one goal on five shots.  It was 1-for-3 and one goal on three shots in Game 2, one goal on four opportunities and four shots in the third game, and one goal on their only opportunity and only shot in the last game of the season.

It was an effective power play (4-for-13 in chances), but it was mixed in efficiency (a 30.8 percent shooting percentage, but only 13 shots in 17:28 of power play ice time).

The Caps’ penalty kill was effective, but this is a mixed bag, too.  Killing 16 of 19 Ranger power plays was a good thing (84.2 percent), but 19 Ranger power plays in four games, giving the Rangers a plus-6 in power play chances, was not a recipe for success.  Here is another number, a worse number, a number you do not want to see in this series: 30.  The Rangers managed 30 shots on goal on 19 power plays.  That they did it over 30:34 of power play ice time makes the result sound a bit better on an efficiency basis, but it was too many shots over far too much power play ice time.  The Rangers do not have an especially effective power play overall, but if the Caps are marching to the penalty box with the frequency they did in the regular season against the Rangers, they will be marching to the first tee in the second week of May.

Leaders

When looking at the Caps’ leading scorers, there is a glass half full/glass half empty quality to it.  The “half full” part is that the Rangers have not found an answer to Alex Ovechkin.  He had five goals in the four games of the series this season, recording at least one goal in each game.  On the “half empty” side, those five goals represent half the Caps’ total against the Rangers.

The overall scoring is more balanced, owing to the assists being spread around more liberally. Eleven Caps have helpers, seven of them with two or more.  John Carlson leads with four.  The “half empty” part of that glass is the fact that Nicklas Backstrom had only two assists in the four games.  Overall, the Caps’ scoring had an odd look to it; you were either a goal scorer, or you had assists, not both.  Of the 14 skaters to record points, only Marcus Johansson and Evgeny Kuznetsov managed to record both a goal and an assist (both recorded one of each).

The Rangers, as one might expect, had a bit more balance.  Eight players shared the 13 goals scored by New York in the season series.  Four of them had two or more, Rick Nash leading the way with three.  He had all of them in a hat trick performance in the teams’ first meeting of the season, a 4-2 win in New York on December 23rd.

Fourteen players recorded points, six of them with two or more.  Four players – Derick Brassard, Dan Boyle, Mats Zuccarello, and Kevin Hayes – had three assists to lead the club.  Hayes and Brassard led the team in overall points with five apiece (both went 2-3-5).

The Overall

Here is how the Capitals and the Rangers compare in their regular season numbers overall:

Who’s Hot?

For the Caps, Evgeny Kuznetsov.  He comes into this series with three goals and an assist out of the Islander series, and overall he is 8-9-17, plus-5, over his last 24 games dating back to March 5th.

For the Rangers, it would be Derick Brassard. He led the team in goal-scoring in the first-round win over the Penguins, potting three of the Rangers’ 11 goals of that series.  He has seven goals in his last 13 games dating back to March 29th.

Who’s Not?

For the Capitals, it would have to be Curtis Glencross.  He did not have a point in the Islander series and dressed for only four games.  He does not have a goal in his last 15 games (one assist over that span) after recording four in his first seven games with the Caps after being obtained from the Calgary Flames.

For the Rangers, it might have to be (at the risk of awakening the hockey gods) Martin St. Louis.  He has been streaky of late.  St. Louis went seven games without a point to end February and begin March before going 3-5-8 in his last nine games to close the regular season.  He had but one assist in the five-game first round series against Pittsburgh.  Oh, that nine-game stretch to close the regular season?  It opened and closed against the Caps; St. Louis had a goal in the first game and two assists in the last one.

Random facts to impress your friends and annoy your enemies…

• Nineteen teams finished ahead of the Rangers in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 in the regular season (49.5), a number includes 13 of other 15 teams reaching the post season (Montreal and Calgary finished behind the Rangers). By way of comparison, the Caps finished 13^th overall (51.4, ninth among the 16 playoff teams; numbers: war-on-ice.com).
• Since the two became teammates, Alex Ovechkin averages more assists per game (0.51) than Nicklas Backstrom (0.48) in the post season.
• If I told you Dan Girardi has played more post season games than any Ranger in club history, would you believe it?  True (94; Walt Tkachuk played in 93).  Alex Ovechkin is the only active Capital in the top ten in post season games played in club history (tenth with 65, one more than Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green).
• For the Caps, scoring more than four goals against the Rangers in regulation in a post-season game is rare.  Washington has gone 39 post season games against New York without doing so, dating back to a 7-1 win over the Rangers in Game 3 of the 1990 Patrick Division Final (the Caps won the series, 4-1).  You might remember that year as being the “Druce on the Loose” year (he had two goals and two assists in that game).
• Mike Green is the Capitals’ all-time playoff leader in power play goals (6).  Not that this is a big list.  Only 12 defensemen in Capitals history have scored power play goals in the post season.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

The big “battle within the battle” is going to be Alex Ovechkin againt Henrik Lundqvist, the irresistible force against the impenetrable object.  But that won’t be the only one.  There are other players who might be heard from.

Washington: Jason Chimera

Some guys have a knack against one team.  In baseball back in the late 1950’s and early 1960’s, Detroit Tiger pitcher Frank Lary was known as “Yankee Killer” for his 27-10 record against them (he was 101-106 in his career otherwise).  For the Washington Capitals, Jason Chimera seems to have knack for tormenting the Rangers and Henrik Lundqvist.  In 19 playoff games against the Rangers with the Caps, Chimera is 6-4-10 (4-10-14 in 31 career playoff games otherwise).  What is more, three of those six goals were game-winners.  Chimera did not exactly burn out the red light behind opposing goaltenders to finish the 2014-2015 regular season; he had only two goals in his last 27 games, both of them against (who else) the Rangers in a 5-2 win on March 29th, including the game-winner.

New York: Chris Kreider

Chris Kreider might be a good fit for the clandestine service.  For a big man (6’3”, 226) he can disappear at times. In the first round series against the Penguins, Kreider had one point (the game-winning goal a Ranger 2-1 win in Game 3).  It is part of a longer run in which Kreider has only that single point over his last eight games dating back to April 7th.  When he is on, though, he can be a monster.  Despite his size, his speed can be breathtaking, and he can produce in bunches.  Before this eight-game points drought, Kreider was 4-6-10 over his previous nine games.  Of course, that was preceded by a stretch in which he went 1-2-3 over ten games.  You get the point.  Let’s hope Kreider does not, scoring-wise that is.  In eight career regular season games against the Caps, Kreider has just one assist.  He had a goal and an assist in the Rangers’ seven-game series win over the Caps in 2013.

In the end…

For the second straight series the Caps have to contend with a team whose style can cause them difficulties.  The Rangers are, like the Islanders, a team that uses speed and crisp playmaking to generate offense in waves.  The difference is, the Rangers are perhaps better at it and certainly more experienced.  The real difference from that series to this, however, is that the Rangers have a world-class goaltender, whereas the Islanders had what amounted to a “Cap killer.” 

Henrik Lundqvist has been sharp since returning from a neck injury late in the season, and he is more than capable of dominating a series over its seven-game length, if it should come to that.  If there is an Achilles heel for the Rangers, it is that they have been living off their PDO (tops in the league at 5-on-5 in the regular season) much more than their raw possession numbers.

If the Caps can fight the Rangers to a draw in the possession battle, a combination of their superior power play and their physical style can grind down the Rangers.  The Rangers have a deeper team in terms of talent, but as Capital fans are acutely aware, a talent advantage does not always translate to four wins in seven games.  This series is where the Ranger’s flirtation with failure based on their possession numbers catches up with them.

Eastern Conference Quarterfinal - Game 7: Capitals 2 - Islanders 1

Coming into their opening round playoff series against the New York Islanders, the Caps skated in 209 post season games in franchise history.  In 29 of those instances the Caps played to a 2-1 decision, winning only nine times and losing on 20 occasions. Of those nine wins by a 2-1 margin, only one came against the Islanders, back in Game 3 of the Patrick Division finals in 1985.  Twice they lost to the Islanders by that score, both times also taking place in that 1985 Patrick Division final that the Caps would lose in five games.

The Caps and Islanders added to that history by splitting a pair of 2-1 decisions on their way to a split of the first six games in their first-round series. The teams went into Game 7 just as close overall, each team having scored 14 goals in the series.  When the first period of Game 7 ended scoreless, it seemed assured that the Caps and Isles would play this one close, perhaps to yet another 2-1 decision.  That did not bode well for the Caps.

There was another memory lurking about this game, that being one of the most famous post season games in NHL history, the "Easter Epic" four-overtime game of April 18-19, 1987.  That might have ended in another 2-1 decision, that one in the Caps' favor, but the Islanders scored with just 5:23 left in regulation time to send the game to overtime and, eventually, history as the Islanders escaped with a 3-2 win early on Easter morning in 1987.

This one was resembling that game long ago more and more as the time ticked on.  In 1987 the Caps dominated the first period in shots, 15-5; last night it was 11-3 for Washington.  The second period was more of the same, the Caps holding a 21-7 edge in shots over the first 40 minutes last night, while in 1987 the shot meter read "25-10," Capitals, at the second intermission.

In 1987 it was a late first period goal that put the Caps on top; last night it was a late goal by Joel Ward in the second period.  It would be the Islanders tying things up with a goal by Frans Nielsen last night that slithered through Braden Holtby's pads, not altogether unlike the goal that Pat Flatley snapped through Bob Mason's pads on that April night in 1987.

The Caps regained the lead last night on a spectacular individual effort by Evgeny Kuznetsov, who darted off the right wing wall, leaving Nielsen in his wake, then skating across the high slot, underneath the late coverage of Brock Nelson.  Eluding Nelson's attempted sweep check, Kuznetsov held the puck for what seemed like minutes, waiting for goalie Jaroslav Halak to commit.  When he did, Kuznetsov fired high, just in time to deny defenseman Johnny Boychuk a chance to fill in behind Halak to block the open net.

It was a rookie scoring in a big moment, just as Grant Martin, playing in what would be his only career NHL playoff game, did when he scored to give the Capitals a 2-1 lead in Game 7 of the 1987 series against the Isles.

All that was left was for the Islanders to find their big moment, a moment authored by a player accustomed to the spotlight as Bryan Trottier was when he tied that Game 7 long ago.  One might have expected a John Tavares moment at that point, but for the Islanders it would be a moment that never came.

If anything, Tavares would be the example of what might be, not a new chapter in Capitals history, but an entirely new volume.  Tavares would not get a chance to be that hero for the Islanders, the player who would send the game further into the night.  The Capitals would hold him without a shot attempt in the game.  In fact, after the Kuznetsov goal the Capitals would hold the Islanders to a single shot on goal, a harmless 60-footer from Boychuk with 4:46 left.

In the end, the lasting image of this game will be Kuznetsov's celebration of his game winning goal.  There might be one more symbolic, though, and it came in the dying seconds.  The Islanders were desperately trying to gain control of a loose puck at the top of the Capitals' defensive zone.  Battling them for control was Nicklas Backstrom, held off the score sheet for the third straight game in this series, but who did so many of the little things that needed to be done.  He had one more as time was about to expire.  He kicked the puck loose, out of the reach of the scrambling Islanders, and out of the zone, giving rise to the image of the Capitals kicking away a lot of frustration and disappointment, writing the first chapter of what one hopes will be a new and happier narrative of Capitals hockey.