The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 26: Red Wings at Capitals, December 8th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return from their three-game road swing on Tuesday night to host the Detroit Red Wings in the Caps’ first home game of December and the last meeting of these two teams for the regular season.

The Capitals finished their road trip with a successful 2-0-1 record, lifting their Metropolitan Division-best road record to 8-2-1.  The Caps are already one of three Metro teams with ten or more home wins this season, and one of four in the East with a record of 10-3-1.

Meanwhile, Detroit has yet to lose a game in December (3-0-0), and the Red Wings have points in their last ten contests (7-0-3).  The recent run has lifted the Wings into second place in the Atlantic Division, behind the Montreal Canadiens, and has them sitting fifth in the Eastern Conference standings.

The Caps are one of the points victims in the Red Wings’ recent run of success, Washington defeating Detroit in overtime on November 18th by a 2-1 score.  The Caps will be looking to win the season series outright with a win on Tuesday night.

Since these teams last met, Detroit has outscored opponents by a 28-22 margin, posting a 6-0-2 record along the way.  Their special teams have not been particularly special over that span, the power play going 5-for-27 (18.5 percent) and the penalty killers going 20-for-26 (76.9 percent).

Individually, it has been Tomas Tatar leading the way over the last eight games with five goals (tied with Dylan Larkin) and nine points.  Tatar, who had a breakthrough year last season with 29 goals in playing all 82 games, is on a pace to finish in the same neighborhood this season (30 goal pace).  He has been consistent with last year’s performance in other areas as well.  His six power play points through 27 games (4-2-6) is on a similar pace with that he set last season – 19 points in 82 games (9-10-19).  He has been hot since Hallowe’en.  In 17 games since then he is 8-8-16, plus-4, and is shooting at a better than 17 percent rate (8-for-46).  Tatar is 1-3-4, plus-3, in eight career games against the Capitals.

Dylan Larkin is tied with Tatar for the team lead in goals (five) in the Wings’ 6-0-2 run since last facing the Caps and is on his way to a big rookie season.  He ranks third among all rookies in points (21, behind Arizona’s Max Domi and Chicago’s Artemi Panarin), and he leads all rookies in goals (11).  His plus-minus has almost lapped the rookie field (plus-19, far ahead of St. Louis’ Colton Parayko at plus-11), and he is tied for the league rookie lead in game winning goals with three.  Larkin has a goal and is a plus-1 in the two games played against the Caps this season.

The Red Wings seemed to have settled into a goalie rotation.  Neither Jimmy Howard nore Petr Mrazek have recorded decisions in more than two consecutive games this season.  Mrazek has played more minutes (922 to 709 for Howard), and while Mrazek also has the better save percentage (.924 to .918), Howard has the better goals against average (2.28 to 2.41).  Each has a shutout.  Mrazek has both decisions against the Caps this season (1-0-1, 0.99, .969, 1 shutout) and has far superior career numbers than Howard against the Caps – GAA (1.54 to 3.37), save percentage (.944 to .876), and shutouts (one to none).

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Detroit is generally thought of as a “mature” team (ok, “old”), but of the 25 skaters to dress for the club this season, seven have yet to reach their 25th birthday, and Tomas Tatar just celebrated his on December 1st.  Two of them – Tatar and Dylan Larkin – are tied for the team lead in points (21).  Larkin leads the team in goals (11), while Tatar is tied for second (10, with Gustav Nyquist).

2.  Despite the fact that Detroit has five defensemen with five or more points and seven with goals on their resume this season, they do not have a top-end shooter.  Only one defenseman – Mike Green – ranks in the top 75 defensemen in shots on goal (tied for 75th with 35).

3.  Detroit scores first, often.  In 27 games they have recorded the first goal 19 times, tops in the league.  Their 14 wins when scoring first is tied for the league lead with Montreal and the New York Rangers.

4.  Conversely, and owning to the infrequency of occurrence, no team has fewer wins when allowing the first goal than Detroit (once in eight games).

5.  The Red Wings are largely a middle of the road team, or slightly higher, in possession. They rank 12th in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 overall (50.7), 11th in score-adjusted Corsi-for (51.6), and 11th in close score situations (50.6).  It is worth noting, though, that in eight games since they last faced Washington, their score-adjusted Corsi-for is 56.5 (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  The Caps have spread power play scoring around rather well.  Nine Caps have recorded at least one power play goal through 25 games, and 12 have points.  The shooting is another matter.  While Alex Ovechkin has been held largely in check in terms of points, his 45 shots on goal with the man advantage exceeds the total of the next three Caps in line (42 from John Carlson, T.J. Oshie, and Evgeny Kuznetsov).

2.  As a team, the Caps have a faceoff winning percentage of 50.5, ranked 11th in the league.  However, on the power play they have a faceoff winning percentage of 56.2.

3.  Intermissions continue to be kind to the Caps if they are leading.  Washington is 7-0-0 when leading at the first intermission and 12-0-0 when leading at the second intermission.  They are the only team with perfect records in first and second intermissions combined.

4.  If you subscribe to the notion that “blocked shots” is a negative indicator (one that reflects the other team having the puck), you would be happy to know that the Caps have the sixth fewest blocked shots in the league (334).

5.  While the Red Wings have been scaling up their possession numbers since the last played the Caps, Washington has had issues.  Their score-adjusted Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 over their last eight games is just 50.3, well below their season number of 53.0 (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Detroit: Mike Green

It has taken Mike Green quite a while to get started with his new club after spending ten seasons with the Capitals.  It was not until his 11th game that he had more shots on goal than blocked shots (14 to 12) and until his 13th game that he had more shots on goal (19) than hits (18).  It was not until his 14th game that he recorded his first goal as a Red Wing, that coming in a 3-2 win over the Los Angeles Kings on November 20th.  He has however, been building a more robust scoring resume for six weeks or so.  In his last 15 games he is 1-9-10 (he tied for the team lead among defensemen in points with 11), but only two teammates have been on ice for more goals against overall than Green (21), and he has missed six games to injury.  Green did not record a point against his old team in two games this season.

Washington: Evgeny Kuznetsov

Evgeny Kuznetsov does not have a point in his last three games.  That might sound like a lot, but over his first 22 games he did not go consecutive games without a point.  He was much more into the flow of things in the Caps’ 2-1 overtime loss to Winnipeg on Saturday afternoon, posting six shots on goal after posting a total of six in his previous four games combined.  Maybe it was a Canadian thing.  Since he went 3-2-5 in a 7-4 win over Edmonton last October 23rd, Kuznetsov went without a point in five of seven games against Canadian teams and was 1-3-4 overall.  In his last five games against American teams he is 2-6-8 with a game-winning goal, that one coming overtime against the Red Wings on November 18th in a 2-1 win.  Kuznetsov is 3-0-3, plus-1, in five career games against Detroit.

In the end…

It seems odd in Game 26 to say that the season series between these clubs is coming to an end with this game, but the NHL schedule-maker acts in mysterious ways.  The Caps have been a good home club since the first of November, going 6-1-1 and winning their last four in a row, three of them by multi-goal margins.

On the other hand, what jumps off the page on the Detroit side is the number of extra time games.  Eight of their last ten games have been settled in overtime or the Gimmick, the Red Wings winning five of them, two of them on the road.

The Caps had their fill of Joe Louis Arena, splitting a pair of one-goal decisions (one, of course, in extra time).  On home ice, the results are going to be a bit different.

Capitals 4 – Red Wings 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 8

The Washington Capitals had a successful Week 8.  Not a great week, mind you, but a successful one.  Such is the burden a good team bears.  Winning is sufficient, but not necessarily impressive.  We, as Caps fans, want them to look good – to play well – in doing it.

Record: 1-0-1

It was a light week of in-game work for the Capitals, a four-day break between the 4-2 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs to end Week 7 and the widely-anticipated contest against the Montreal Canadiens in the week’s first game, last Thursday.  When the Caps beat Montreal, 3-2, at Bell Centre it gave them an 8-0-1 record against Canadian teams this season, a perfect 5-0-0 on the road.  They then took to the skies and flew to Winnipeg.  They gave up a late first period goal but clawed back to tie the game in the second period.  Although the Jets would win the contest with a late overtime goal, the Caps earned a point to sustain their consecutive games points streak, now at seven at week’s end, and their unblemished record in regulation time against Canadian teams (8-0-2).

Offense:  2.00/game (season: 3.12 /game; rank: 5th)

The best one could say of the offense in Week 8 was that it was balanced.  Nine different players recorded points on what would be a total of four goals.  Only two Caps – T.J. Oshie (2-0-2) and Nicklas Backstrom (1-1-2) had more than one point; Oshie was the only Capital with more than one goal.  The Caps had trouble getting started in games, and they had trouble finding the net overall.  Washington managed only six shots on goal in the each first period they played this week.  Overall, they finished the week with just four goals on 57 shots (7.0 percent).

The Caps did get some welcome contributions, despite the low-scoring week.  Tom Wilson scored the Caps’ first goal in their 3-2 win over Montreal to open the week, giving him goals in two straight games.  It was the first time in his career he recorded goals in consecutive games.  Andre Burakovsky had an assist on the Caps’ only goal in the 2-1 overtime loss to Winnipeg.  It was his first point since recording an assist in a 3-2 overtime loss to the Calgary Flames on November 13^th.  It was just is second point in his last 16 games.  Brooks Laich had an assist in the Caps’ 3-2 win over Montreal.  It extended an odd “box-step” dance patter for the forward.  Assist-blank-blank-blank…assist-blank-blank-blank…assist-blank-blank-blank.  The pattern started over when he came up with a blank against Winnipeg.

Defense: 2.00/game (season: 2.20 /game; rank: 3rd)

Team defense was a bit lacking in Week 8, despite the low goals allowed total.  At least it was uneven.  The Caps allowed Montreal 56 shot attempts at 5-on-5 in the 3-2 win to open the week, the second highest number of 5-on-5 shot attempts allowed by the team so far this season.  The shot attempt differential of minus-23 was, by far, the worst this season (minus-11 versus Edmonton on November 23^rd).

Then there was the game against Winnipeg.  The Caps out-attempted the Jets, 54-38, in the 2-1 overtime loss.  The 38 shot attempts against was the tenth-fewest allowed this season, and the shot attempt differential of plus-16 was the fourth-best.  Overall, the Caps had a below average possession week, posting a Corsi-for percentage of 48.1 overall, with a 50.2 in score-adjusted Corsi-for and a 47.9 in close score situations at 5-on-5.

Goaltending: 1.93 /.944 (season: 2.07 / .924 / 1 shutout)

Braden Holtby came into Week 8 on a seven-game personal winning streak.  He ended it with a nine-game personal streak undefeated in regulation.  That his winning streak ended in the second game of the week was hardly is doing.  Holtby had an unreal .957 save percentage in 119:53 of regulation time.  He was also consistent through the periods for the week, posting a .963 save percentage in the first period of games, a .960 save percentage in the second period, and a .941 save percentage in the third period.  He allowed one goal in each of the periods of games this week – including overtime, unfortunately – for a total of four.

At week’s end, Holtby had allowed two goals in four consecutive games (.943 save percentage) and has not allowed more than three goals in a game since November 3^rd (10-1-1, 1.73, .940, one shutout).  Among goalies logging at least 750 minutes, Holtby ranks first in overall goals against average (1.95) and is tied for third in save percentage (.928). Here is the odd thing about Holtby’s workload, though.  Last season, Holtby appeared in 20 of the Caps’ first 25 games and logged 1,118 minutes.  Through 25 games so far this season, Holtby has appeared in 21 games and logged 1,261 minutes.

Power Play: 1-for-7 / 14.3 percent (season: 25.6 percent; rank: 2nd)

A small number of games, a low number of opportunities, it is hard to arrive at any conclusions about the power play for Week 8.  One goal on seven power play opportunities (14.3 percent) sounds bad, but one more goal in there, and the power play would have looked great (28.6 percent).  As it was, the Caps had one power play goal on seven shots to go with their 1-for-7 on opportunities in 12:05 of power play time (0.58 shots per minute). 

The interesting part of it was the silence from the left side of the rink.  The Caps had 12 power play shot attempts in the two games with Alex Ovechkin on the ice, and he had two of them.  The Caps had six shots on goal in the two games with Ovechkin on the ice, and he had one of them (numbers from war-on-ice.com).  The Caps had a “right-handed” power play in the two games, six of the seven shots on goal coming from players stationed on the right wing or goal line extended to the right (Nicklas Backstrom, Andre Burakovsky, Evgeny Kuznetsov), the middle of the 1-3-1 (Justin Williams), or the right point (John Carlson (2)).

There was, however, the shorthanded goal allowed on a Caps power play against Montreal.  It was the first such goal allowed by the club this season.  They were the 27^th team to allow one this season, leaving only Edmonton, Columbus, and Pittsburgh as the teams remaining not to have allowed a shorthanded goal.

Penalty Killing: 7-for-8 / 87.5 percent (season: 83.8 percent; rank: 6th)

It could have been worse. The Caps did a fine job against the Canadiens on the penalty kill in the first game of the week in terms of opportunities (three), goals allowed (none), and shots allowed (five; 0.83 per minute).  Against Winnipeg, the Caps could have had a disaster on their hands, taking five minor penalties in the first period, giving the Jets four power play opportunities.  That the Caps came out of that with one power play goal allowed (their only one for the week) was more a credit to Braden Holtby, who stopped eight of nine power play shots on goal.  The Caps allowed 11 shots and the one goal in 8:20 of power play time to the Jets.  For the week, the numbers were one goal allowed on 16 shots in 14:20 of shorthanded ice time (1.11 shots per minute).

Faceoffs: 56-for-119 / 47.1 percent (season: 50.5% / rank: 11th)

The Caps had a good week overall in the faceoff circle, but that was entirely a function of their work in the defensive end.  Not surprising, given the low goal totals on each side of the ledger in Week 8.  Washington was just 19-for-43 in the offensive end for the week and was below 50 percent in both games.  Meanwhile, in the defensive end they were 25-for-41 and were over 50 percent in both games, including going 15-for-19 in the defensive end against Winnipeg (78.9 percent).

On an individual basis, four Caps took ten or more draws for the week, and three of them – Nicklas Backstrom (53.7 percent), Jay Beagle (54.8 percent), and Michael Latta (60.0 percent) finished above 50 percent.  Backstrom (60.0 percent) and Latta (100.0 percent were the only Caps to top 50 percent in the offensive end.  Evgeny Kuznetsov had a difficult week, going 4-for-12 in the offensive end and 3-for-11 in the neutral zone on his way to a 34.5 percent week (10-for-29).

Goals by Period:

There was the consistency of small populations of events in Week 8.  One goal scored in the first periods of games, one in the third.  There were two goals in the second period, one in each game.  On the other side, there was one goal allowed in each of the first periods, second periods, and third periods for the week.  Unfortunately for the Caps, that consistency spilled over into overtime, allowing the one goal that kept them from extending their winning streak to a seventh game.  What is it with this team and “seventh” games?

In the end…

It is hard to get too worked up over a week that ended with the Capitals free and clear of the New York Rangers for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division and two games in hand to boot.  And, they are three points behind the Montreal Canadiens for the top spot in the Eastern Conference with three games in hand on the Habs.

Still, the Caps won despite being dominated in possession by Montreal and took advantage of their number one goaltender – Carey Price – on the shelf with an injury.  They could not take advantage of their own dominating performance in possession against Winnipeg, despite their dressing a goaltender – Connor Hellebuyck – appearing in just his third NHL game.

The lasting image for the week, though, might be Barry Trotz behind the Caps bench at the end of the overtime loss to Winnipeg calling for and waiting – more than eight minutes – for a decision on a challenge issued on the game-winning goal.  At issue was the matter of whether Blake Wheeler’s left skate was on the ice (and on the blue line) or over it (and offside) as Jacob Trouba carried the puck into the offensive zone at the start of the last scoring sequence.  The play continued to the conclusion – the game-winning goal – before the challenge could be issued.  Then viewers on television were treated to four officials surrounding a table device with the same quizzical expressions one saw on the faces of the apes at the start of “2001: A Space Odyssey” when confronting the monolith for the first time.  It was not a good look for the officials, nor for advocates of the replay.  Imagine trying to discern whether a player’s skate is on or off the ice while looking at the screen of a tablet.  Of course the finding was “not conclusive in determining whether Winnipeg was off-side prior to the goal.” 

It was the fourth straight time the Capitals challenged an opponent’s goal and had the challenge turned down.  The Caps are one-for-eight in challenges overall this season.  It made for a bitter end of the week, but in terms of the big picture, it was another winning week – the Caps’ seventh in eight weeks this season – and that matters more.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Braden Holtby (1-0-1, 1.94, .944)
• Second Star: Nicklas Backstrom (1-1-2, plus-1, 22-for-41 on faceoffs/53.7 percent)
• Third Star: T.J. Oshie (2-0-2, GWG versus Montreal)

Washington Capitals Recap: A ONE-Point Afternoon: Jets 2 - Capitals 1 (OT)

The Washington Capitals saw their season-long six-game winning streak come to an end in Winnipeg on Saturday afternoon when they lost a 2-1 overtime decision to the Jets at MTS Centre.

It was a case of late goals doing in the Caps, a late goal in the first period and the overtime winner with less than 20 seconds left in the extra session.  The Jets opened the scoring with that late first period goal, courtesy of Andrew Ladd, who scored a power play goal with 6.3 seconds left in the first period.

That goal held up until late in the second period when the Caps tied the game on a power play goal of their own. The Jets, concerned as they were with any one timer coming from Alex Ovechkin’s side of the ice, overloaded to the left side and established position with denying a pass to that side in mind.  What that did was leave John Carlson and Nicklas Backstrom to play catch with a fair amount of open ice in front of them. Backstrom took a pass from Carlson, walked to the top of the right wing circle, and wristed a shot that beat goalie Connor Hellebuyck to the short side to make it 1-1 with 5:35 left in the second frame.

That was the way the score would remain through regulation and into the final minute of overtime.  The Jets scored the game-winner as Mark Scheifele circled out from behind the Capitals’ net, backed off from defenseman Dmitry Orlov, took a pass from Jacob Trouba, and rifled a shot past Braden Holtby to end, sort of, the contest.  After considerable delay from a challenge by Barry Trotz that the play started with the Jets offside, the call stood, and the Jets had a 2-1 win.

Other stuff…

-- Replay…again.  What is more pathetic than four men in striped shirts with quizzical looks on their faces huddled around a tablet looking at a replay over and over again from this angle or that?  Well, another call against the Caps would qualify.  The point of contention on the game-winning goal was apparently whether the left skate of Blake Wheeler was on the blue line or above it when Jacob Trouba carried the puck into the Washington zone to start the final sequence.  The review took more than eight minutes to resolve.  That is an embarrassment to the league.  They use flimsy technology (a tablet?), rely on on-ice officials far too much (every officiating crew sees a play with different eyes), and take far too long to settle disputes, perhaps because of the technology and the nature of dispute resolution.

-- The game-winner and the controversy about it aside, the Caps either deserved better, or they didn’t, depending on the man-strength you consider.  At 5-on-5 the Caps dominated, recording 54 of the 92 shot attempts (58.7 percent Corsi-for).  Then there was the first period.  The Caps took six penalties – five minors and a fighting major – that resulted in four Winnipeg power plays, one of them a 36-second 5-on-3.  The power plays accounted for nine of the 17 shots the Jets recorded in the first period and their only goal.

-- And that leads us to Tom Wilson.  It appears that Wilson’s reputation has now filtered through the entire referee community.  How else to explain his being hit with a second minor penalty for roughing on the same player (he “roughed” Mark Stuart twice?).

-- Braden Holtby kept the Caps in the game with his 16-saves-on-17-shots performance in the first period.  And, truth be told, he might have deserved better on the game winner, too, when Dmitry Orlov ducked on the Mark Scheifele shot (hey, we’d have fallen into the fetal position to avoid that shot).  It was the fourth straight game that Holtby allowed just two goals and the tenth time in 12 appearances he allowed two or fewer.  Holtby has now allowed more than two even strength goals in any of those last 12 games.

-- The Caps had 6:12 in power play time, and Alex Ovechkin did not have a single power play shot on goal. 

-- Hockey being a game of inches (and not just for offside calls), a shot from Justin Williams mid-way through the overtime session that was a half inch lower might have rung the crossbar and gone in instead of hitting it and bouncing away.

-- This was just the second road game this season that the Caps were held to fewer than two goals.  The other was a 1-0 loss in Detroit to the Red Wings on November 10^th.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov recorded a team-high six shots on goal, but for the third straight game failed to record a point, a season high for consecutive games without a point.

-- John Carlson had an assist on the Backstrom power play goal, making it four games in five that he has points (0-6-6).

-- Stanislav Galiev got a sweater for this contest, his first appearance since November 23^rd.  He got into the spirit of things in the first period by taking one of those five minor penalties charged to the Caps.

In the end…

Well, they got a point out of it, and the Caps are still at the top of the Metropolitan Division.  They encountered a goalie – Connor Hellebuyck – who played well, but perhaps not 37 save on 38 shots well.  There were too many penalties in the first period (warranted or not) that kept the Caps from getting into any 5-on-5 rhythm until the second period.  The Caps just do not seem to be at the top of their game lately, beating a goalie in a deep rut (Jonathan Bernier in Toronto), winning despite playing comparatively poorly in Montreal, and not being able to get out of their own way in this game.  Still, the Caps have points in seven straight games (6-0-1) and come home to face Detroit on Tuesday.  Good teams manage to fight through rough spots and still grind out points.  The Caps have done just that over the last week.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 25: Capitals at Jets, December 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take their six-game winning streak west to Winnipeg where they will face the Jets on Saturday afternoon (note: it’s a 3:00 start).  The Capitals will head into this contest as the hottest team in the league, their six-game winning streak being the longest active streak among the 30 teams and their 8-1-1 record over their last ten games tied with the Dallas Stars for the best such current ten-game record.

Winnipeg, on the other hand, is perhaps thankful to be treading water in recent games.  Their 4-3-0 record over their last seven games is a substantial improvement over the six-game losing streak (0-5-1) that preceded it.  It has been enough – barely – to lift the Jets to .500 for the season (12-12-2).

The Jets have outscored their opponents by a 23-19 margin in their 4-3-0 run, but their special teams have been ho-hum.  The power play is 4-for-23 (17.4 percent), while the penalty kill is 17-for-23 (73.9 percent).

On an individual level, Caps fans would recognize the leading scorer in this recent seven-game stretch.  Mathieu Perreault is 2-6-8 in his last seven games. The scoring spurt was a welcome improvement for Perreault, who was 1-10-11 in his first 19 games this season.  As it is, Perreault is on a pace to finish with his best season to date in points per game (0.73), a statistic he has improved on in each of the last three seasons (0.44 in 2012-2013, 0.62 in 2013-2014, and 0.66 last season).  Perreault has faced his old team three times and has a pair of goals in those contests.

Mark Scheifele is tied for the team lead in goals (four) over this seven-game stretch and has seven points overall.  It hasn’t been the case of slow and sure wins the race with Scheifele, though.  He has three-point games in the first and last games of this span of contests, one against the Vancouver Canucks in a 4-1 win on November 18^th, and another against the Toronto Maple Leafs in a 6-1 win last Wednesday in Winnipeg’s most recent game.  In six career meetings with the Caps, Scheifele is 1-2-3, minus-1.

As for goaltending, it has been something of a challenge.  Ondrej Pavelec was limping along at 5-6-1, 2.82, .908 when he went limping off with a knee injury in a 3-2 win over the Arizona Coyotes on November 21^st.  Then it was Michael Hutchinson getting the call, but he hasn’t exactly wowed anyone with a 5-6-1 record of his own, accompanied by a 3.09 goals against average and a .901 save percentage.  Then there is Connor Hellebuyck.  He has wins in his first two NHL appearances, a 14-save effort in a 3-1 win over the Minnesota Wild on November 27^th and a 32-save gem in a 6-1 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs last Wednesday.  The odd thing about Hellebuyck is that he has a pair of one-goal allowed appearances in his first two NHL games when he had only two such games in ten games with Manitoba in the AHL, one of those being an overtime loss.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  For the Jets, two is the magic number, as in “goals allowed.”  Winnipeg is 11-0-0 when allowing two or fewer goals, but when allowing more than two goals they are 1-12-2.

2.  Scoring first is something unfamiliar to the Jets.  No team has opened the scoring in games fewer times than Winnipeg (eight), and only three teams – Carolina, Toronto, and Vancover – have fewer wins when scoring first (five apiece) than the Jets (six).

3.  The Jets have a problem in the first period allowing goals.  No team has allowed more goals in the first 20 minutes than the Jets, and it is not close.  Winnipeg has allowed 29 first period goals, the Chicago Blackhawks are next in line with 24 first period goals allowed.

4.  When the Jets lose, they often do not make a mystery of it.  Half of their 12 losses in regulation have come by three or more goals.  Only three teams – Calgary (9), Carolina (9), and Arizona (7) have more such losses than the six by the Jets.

5.  Winnipeg is not a bad possession team. At 5-on-5 they rank 11^th in Corsi-for percentage (51.7).  Those numbers do not differ much in other situations.  The Jets rank tenth in score-adjusted Corsi-for (51.7) and rank tenth in close score situations (50.8; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  The Caps head to Winnipeg having allowed more than 30 shots in three consecutive games, the first time they have done so since allowing more than 30 in four straight contests in Games 68-71 last season.

2.  Goal margins do not seem to matter to the Caps in individual games.  They rank third in winning percentage in one-goal games (.700), fifth in two-goal games (.800) and fourth in games decided by three or more goals (.778).

3.  Only Carolina has averaged less penalty time per game (6:24) than the Caps (7:09) this season.

4.  Scoring against the Caps in the long change has been a challenge for opponents.  No team has allowed fewer second period goals than the Caps (12).

5.  Those shots allowed per game creeping up in recent games is part of a larger possession issue for Washington.  They have slipped to ninth in overall Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (51.9 percent), seventh in score-adjusted Corsi (52.7), and 12^th in close score situations (50.7; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Winnipeg: Dustin Byfuglien

Since Dustin Byfuglien was traded to the Atlanta Thrashers – now the Winnipeg Jets – by the Chicago Blackhawks in June 2010, only Erik Karlsson has more points among defensemen, and only Shea Weber has more goals scored.  He comes into this game with the third highest goal total among defensemen in the league (seven), trailing only Justin Faulk (eight) and Brent Burns (nine).  He is also on a four-game points streak (1-4-5), his longest points streak of the season and longest since a five-game streak a year ago (November 28- December 9, 2014).  In 24 career games against Washington, Byfuglien is 5-8-13, minus-9.

Washington: John Carlson

John Carlson is a top-ten point producer among defensemen in the NHL, tied for seventh with 18 points through Thursday’s games. However, he is struggling in his possession numbers.  Among 179 defensemen to have played in at least 200 5-on-5 minutes through Thursday’s games, Carlson ranks 107^th in Corsi-for (49.1; numbers from war-on-ice.com) and is last among the six Caps defensemen who have appeared in 200 or more 5-on-5 minutes.  It translates to a less-than-satisfying 2.09 goals for per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 and 2.09 goals against per 60 minutes.  As the minutes leader on the team (24:11 per game), one hopes those numbers improve.  In 23 career games against Winnipeg, Carlson is 1-6-7, plus-6.

In the end…

The Jets are an odd team, especially at home.  They opened the season allowing 17 goals in their first five games at MTS Centre, but in their last six games on that ice sheet they have allowed just 12 goals.  The wild card there is goaltending, which has been a bit deceiving, at least on home ice.  Connor Hellebuyck allowed one goal in his only appearance on home ice, that coming in the 6-1 win over Toronto in Winnipeg’s last contest. Michael Hutchinson has only two starts at home since October and allowed a total of just four goals in those appearances.  What might be perceived as a weakness for Winnipeg – goaltending – might not be such a weakness after all.  The Caps should be prepared for a different team than the one they defeated in Washington ten days ago.

Capitals 3 – Jets 2

Washington Capitals Recap: A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 3 - Canadiens 2

The Washington Capitals and the Montreal Canadiens met on Thursday night in a battle of two of the hottest, if not the outright best teams in the Eastern Conference.  Washington entered the contest on a five-game winning streak, and the Canadiens took the ice with points in six consecutive games.  At the final horn it was the Capitals extending their winning streak to six games with a 3-2 win.

The Caps got on the board first, early in the first period.  It was a classic instance of forechecking pressure in the Montreal zone that created the opportunity.  Michael Latta consested Nathan Beaulieu behind the Montreal net, and Beaulieu gave up the puck along the boards.  Brooks Laich pinched in along the wall, and with three Canadiens surrounding him, he found Tom Wilson circling through the left wing faceoff circle.  Wilson took the pass, turned, and snapped a shot past goalie Mike Condon at the 2:26 mark.

The goal held up into the second period, but the Canadiens knotted the game mid-way through the period.  Lars Eller scored from in tight just two seconds after a Montreal power play expired.  The tie lasted into the final minute of the second period when T.J. Oshie scored an odd goal.  The play started with the Caps entering the Canadien zone on a 3-on-2 rush, Nicklas Backstrom carrying the puck down the middle.  After gaining the zone, Backstrom slid the puck off to his right to Oshie, who wristed a long-range shot off Condon’s blocker.  The puck popped up into the air, Condon losing track of it.  It fell and deflected off Condon’s right elbow into the net.  After a brief discussion of whether a Capital redirected the puck with a high stick, the goal stood, and the Caps had a 2-1 lead going into the second intermission.

Montreal tied the game early in the third period.  With the Caps on a power play, the Montreal penalty killers caught the Caps – Oshie and John Carlson, specifically – in the unfortunate position of trying to get into position as a battle for the puck was being waged along the wall.  As both Oshie and Carlson turned into their respective positions, the puck sprang free, and Paul Byron fed Brian Flynn exiting the zone.  Flynn was already several strides ahead of Oshie and Carlson, and Backstrom was still too far off along the wall, giving him and opening to head off on a breakaway.  He skated in, deked goalie Braden Holtby, and tucked the puck around Holtby’s extended left pad.

Six minutes later, Oshie struck again.  It was a simple play that few players could make.  Alex Ovechkin collected the puck along the left wing wall and sent it up to Karl Alzner at the left point.  Alzner fired the puck toward the net, and Oshie, from the inside of the left wing circle, redirected the puck out of mid-air and off the post to give the Caps a 3-2 lead that they would hold for their sixth straight win.

Other stuff…

-- The six-game winning streak for the Caps is their longest since an eight-game streak late in the 2012-2013 season (April 2 – 16).

-- Holtby extended a pair of personal streaks in this game.  He ran his personal winning streak overall to eight games, a career best, during which he has a goals against average of 1.85 and a save percentage of .935.  He also extended his streak of games without a loss in regulation time to Montreal to nine (7-0-2, 1.40, .949, two shutouts).

-- The Caps extended their streak of games without a regulation loss at Bell Centre to 12 (10-0-2).  Their last loss in regulation time in Montreal was on January 10, 2009, a 5-4 decision.

-- T.J. Oshie’s two-goal night was his first multi-goal game as a Capital.  It was his first multi-point game since October 23^rd in which he had two assists in a 7-4 win over the Edmonton Oilers.

-- The shorthanded goal by Brian Flynn was the first shorthanded goal allowed by the Caps this season.  There are only three teams left that have not allowed a shorthanded goal – Edmonton Oilers, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Pittsburgh Penguins.

-- Tom Wilson’s goal gave him goals in consecutive games for the first time in his career, not to mention they are the first two goals he has this season.

-- With an assist, Alex Ovechkin has points in four straight games. It also means he has points in 17 and goals in 12 of the 23 games in which he has played.  Through 23 games last season he had goals in 8 and points in 11 of the first 23 games he played.  In both years he had 12 goals in his first 23 games.

-- With an assist, Nicklas Backstrom extended his points-scoring streak to four games, a season high for him. 

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov had a quiet night – one shot attempt (shot on goal), no points, in 17 minutes and change.  That makes consecutive games without a point for Kuznetsov, the first time that has happened since he opened the season without a point in his first two games.

-- John Carlson had an interesting game… seven shot attempts (no points), six giveaways and seven blocked shots.  Add in the minor penalty he took, and it was a study in frenzied activity with little to show for it.

In the end…

It would be tempting to say that the Caps just keep doing what they do, but what they have been doing lately is a bit disturbing, and it was in full color in this game.  Montreal recorded 56 shot attempts at 5-on-5 to 33 for the Caps, a Corsi-for percentage of 37.1 for the Caps that is their worst for a single game this season (numbers from war-on-ice.com).  Teams don’t win on the basis of a PDO of 115.2.  Well, they do, but it is not something they can sustain.  This game was a case of goalie Braden Holtby stealing one right out of the hands of the Canadiens.  The Caps need to have more balanced effort than that if they are to extend their winning streak much further.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 24: Capitals at Canadiens, December 3rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Since the Washington Capitals last took the ice in a 4-2 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs, Cyber Monday has come and gone, the NHL bestowed its second star of the week previous on Caps goalie Braden Holtby, who also won the NHL’s second star for the month of November, and the Caps have had four days to rest, recharge, and refocus before Thursday night’s contest in Montreal against the Canadiens.

This game pits the top two teams in the Eastern Conference in standings points earned per game against one another.  Both of them, as you might expect, are coming into the game on a hot streak.  The Caps won five in a row to end the month of November and are 9-2-1 in their last dozen games.  Montreal has points in their last six games (5-0-1) and are 8-2-2 in their last dozen games.

In their 5-0-1 run, Montreal outscored their opponents, 20-12, four of the five wins coming by multi-goal margins.  Their special teams have been similarly dominant, the power play going 6-for-20 (30.0 percent) and their penalty kill going 18-for-20 (90.0 percent).  The good fortune has hardly been a fluke, either.  The Canadiens’ possession numbers over their last half-dozen games are very good: 52.5 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall, 55.0 percent in score-adjusted Corsi-for, and 54.7 percent in Corsi-for in close score situations.

Montreal is led in scoring in their 5-0-1 stretch by Alex Galchenyuk (5-2-7). The 21-year old center had a five-game points streak snapped in the Canadiens’ last outing, a 2-1 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets on Tuesday.  It is a nice change for Galchenyuk, who labored under a slow start to the season, going just 1-7-8 in his previous 18 games before finding his scoring touch.  The odd thing about the recent run of production is that Galchenyuk has scored goals on his last four shots on goal and five of his last six.  In eight career games against the Capitals, Galchenyuk is 0-5-5, plus-2.

A pair of former Capitals figured into the scoring for the Canadiens in their six-game points streak.  Alexander Semin recorded an assist in the first game of the streak, a 5-3 win over the New York Islanders on November 20th.  However, he suffered a lower-body injury in Montreal’s 5-1 win over the Rangers in New York on November 25th and was placed on injured reserve. The other former Capital – Tomas Fleischmann – has a pair of goals on his ledger during the streak.  Fleischmann has seven goals this season in 26 games, a total that almost matches his entire output for last season (eight) in 66 games split between the Florida Panthers and the Anaheim Ducks.  Those two goals came at the end of a three-goals-in-four-games run for the left winger, but he is without a point in his last four games coming into this contest.  In 16 career games against the Caps, he is 4-4-8, minus-3.

Carey Price is, at the moment, perhaps the best goaltender on the planet.  Carey Price is also, at the moment, on injured reserve with a knee injury.  That has left the number one netminding duties with Mike Condon, who has done his best “Cam Talbot as savior” impression as a backup thrust into a starring role for a team with large expectations.  Like Talbot, the Ranger backup who went 21-9-4 last season in backing up and taking over for an injured Henrik Lundqvist, Condon has stepped up his game to meet the challenge.  He is 9-2-3 with a 2.11 goals against average and a .918 save percentage.  Twice this season he has been called upon to assume the number one goaltending duties after injuries (perhaps the same injury) to Price.  In this six-game points streak, Condon’s contribution in four appearances is a 2-0-1 record (one no-decision in the game in which he relieved Price) with a 1.74 goals against average and a .935 save percentage.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  P.K. Subban is tied for third in total scoring among defensemen, but no defenseman in the top-15 has done it scoring as few or fewer goals than Subban, who has just one goal to his credit this season.  He is without a goal in his last 17 games.

2.  Montreal has balance.  The Canadiens already have 11 skaters with ten or more points I just 26 games.  All of last season, they had only 15.

3.  No team has more multi-goal wins than the Canadiens.  Their 15 such wins is three more than Dallas and four more than the Rangers and the Caps.  They also happen to have the fewest losses by two or more goals (two), one more than Minnesota, Vancouver, and the Capitals.  It should then be no surprise that the Canadiens have the largest positive goal differential per game in the league (plus-1.27).  The Caps are second (plus-1.00).

4.  Montreal is very adept at goading teams into stepping outside the rules, then making them pay for it.  Their 92 power plays ranks third overall, and their 22 power play goal total is tied for first (with the Boston Bruins).

5.  The Canadiens’ recent run of fine possession play is not a short-term thing.  For the season they rank sixth in overall Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (52.2), fourth in score-adjusted Corsi-for (53.5) and seventh in Corsi-for in close score situations (52.5; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  In the Capitals’ five-game winning streak heading to Montreal, they outscored opponents, 21-10.  Their special teams have been every bit as, if not more, successful than Montreal’s over a similar stretch.  The power play is 7-for-16 (43.8 percent) in the 5-0-0 run, while the penalty kill is 7-for-10 (70.0 percent).  While the penalty kill has lagged in efficiency, the Caps have minimized shorthanded situations (two per game) and still have a plus-4 goal differential on special teams in this stretch.

2.  No player in the NHL has more games with three or more points this season than Evgeny Kuznetsov.  Two of those games have come in this five-game winning streak, one against Winnipeg and the other against Colorado.  Kuznetsov is the Caps leading point scorer in this five-game streak (2-6-8).

3.  The Caps have had balance, too.  In their five-game winning streak, 12 players share the 21 goals scored.  Alex Ovechkin, Dmitry Orlov, and Justin Williams lead with three apiece.  There are 17 skaters sharing in the point-scoring.  After Kuznetsov, the team leader in that category is Jason Chimera (2-5-7). 

4.  If Montreal is good at getting teams to cross the line on rules, the Caps are good at staying inside the line.  Only two teams have faced fewer shorthanded situations than the Caps (60) – Minnesota (58) and Carolina (55).  No team has allowed fewer power play goals than the Caps (10).

5.  What is odd about the winning streak for the Caps, and a source of concern, is that the possession numbers are not very good at 5-on-5.  Their Corsi-for percentage overall is just 48.0, while their close score of 48.1 is hardly better.  Their score-adjusted value of 50.7 makes the profile a bit brighter, but it could use improvement (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Montreal: Sven Andrighetto

With a name like “Sven Andrighetto,” you might think we were speaking of a driver on the Formula 1 circuit. Instead, he is a Zurich-born, second-year right winger who has a pair of goals (his first two of the season) as part of the recent 5-0-1 run for the Canadiens.  Andrighetto, who was drafted in the third round of the 2013 entry draft (86th overall), has climbed the developmental ladder slowly, but surely, over the past several years.  After working his way up the development chain in Switzerland from 2008 to 2011, he jumped across the water to join the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies of the QMJHL in Canadian juniors in 2011-2012.  After two seasons with the Huskies in which he scored 67 goals in 115 games, he was drafted by the Canadiens, who assigned him the Hamilton Bulldogs of the AHL.  He spent one full season there and most of a second, recording 31 goals in 124 games.  He did get 12 games with the Canadiens last year, during which he scored his first two NHL goals.  This will be his first appearance against the Caps.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

The esteemed artist Harry Nilsson once wrote, “one is the loneliest number that you’ll ever do.”  It has not been a lonely number for Alex Ovechkin, who happens to have a lot of "ones."  As in “one-goal games.”  Ovechkin has scored goals in 12 games this season…one in each of them.  Ovechkin, whose 100 multi-goal games since he came into the league is a whopping 32 more than Jarome Iginla recorded over the same period, has not had a multi-goal game since April 2nd of last season, a span of 26 games and counting.  Only Jaromir Jagr (124) and Iginla (106), who have been playing in the NHL since dinosaurs roamed the earth, have more career multi-goal games among active players than Ovechkin.  In 36 career games against Montreal, Ovechkin is 22-16-38, plus-5.

In the end…

It is tempting to think of this as a playoff-level matchup between two teams that might find themselves meeting down the road in an Eastern Conference final.  Well, let’s think about that for a second.  The Caps have had four days off, which is something they are not likely to see in the spring.  The Canadiens are missing their number one, All-World goaltender.  What both are doing, though, is rolling over opponents in recent games.  The Caps do it with a methodical, grind-opponents-down approach, while Montreal tries to skate opponents into the concrete beneath the rink.  On one level, this is could be a game that is a study in which team can play more often at a pace of its choosing.  On another, there are every effective goaltenders at each end to render such considerations of style of lesser relevance.  This would seem likely to be a low-scoring affair, and that edge goes to the goalie with more battle experience, not to mention a good deal of career success against his opponent.

Capitals 2 – Canadiens 1

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 7

The longest week of the season to date for the Washington Capitals was the best one to date.  The Caps had their first clean week since Week 2 and ended it by tying their longest winning streak of the season.  It truly was a week for Capitals fans to give thanks.

Record: 4-0-0

The Caps went into Week 7 having split the first two games of their season-long five-game home stand.  Their last three games of that stand would be against three teams of different pedigree.  There were the young and speedy Edmonton Oilers, there were the tough and gritty Winnipeg Jets, and there were the deep and experienced Tampa Bay Lightning.  The Caps amply demonstrated that they have the capacity to play effectively against such a range of styles, posting a shutout and two two-goal wins over the three teams.  Then, to cap things off in a holiday week to celebrate, the Caps visited Toronto to wrap up a back-to-back set of games (playing Tampa Bay the previous night) and pulling away from the Toronto Maple Leafs with another two-goal win.

Offense:  3.50/game (season: 3.22 /game; rank: 4th)

The Caps had trouble finding their stride in Week 7, held without a goal on 15 shots over two periods against the Edmonton Oilers and goalie Anders Nilsson in the first game of the week.  However, the Caps then scored 14 goals in their next nine periods.

The Caps spread things around, too.  Nine different players recorded goals for the week, five of them recording a pair – Dmitry Orlov, Alex Ovechkin, Justin Williams, Marcus Johansson, and Jason Chimera.  There were 14 players who finished the week with points, led by Evgeny Kuznetsov (1-4-5) and John Carlson (0-5-5).  What is noteworthy about the first two sentences in this paragraph is that no player’s name appears more than once.  Balance.

The Caps finished the week with three two-goal wins, giving them 11 multi-goal wins this season.  That ranks third in the league behind the Montreal Canadiens (15) and the Dallas Stars (12).  Their winning percentage in such games (.786) is second only to the Canadiens (.882).

Defense: 1.75/game (season: 2.22/game; rank: 4th)

The Caps spent the first six weeks of the season cultivating a reputation for being stingy with shots and shot attempts.  That reputation would be challenged in Week 7 against teams that, whatever their defensive issues, could score goals.  The Caps did allow the Edmonton Oilers to break the 30-shot barrier in the first game of the week, just the third time in 20 games any team recorded more than 30 shots against Washington.  After holding the Winnipeg Jets in check – 26 shots against in a 5-3 win – the Caps allowed more than 30 shot in consecutive games for the first time this season, 34 to each of the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Here is the odd thing about Week 7, though.  The Caps had what for them was a poor possession week.  Well, perhaps inconsistent.  Their Corsi-values at 5-on-5 overall (47.7 percent) and in close score situations (47.3) were a departure from their highly ranked possession numbers going into the week.  Their score-adjusted values (50.0 percent) were not poor, but certainly not up to their standard over the first six weeks.  What made it especially out of character was that the worst game of the week was against perhaps the weakest team overall – Edmonton.  The Caps’ 44.7 percent score-adjusted Corsi in that game was their second-worst game of the season (November 20^th at Detroit: 43.2) and worst at home this season (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

Goaltending: 1.75 /.945 / 1 shutout (season: 2.09 / .921 / 1 shutout)

Week 7 was the Braden Holtby Show.  Holtby got all the minutes in goal, and he made them count.  He started the week with a 33-save shutout, finished it with stopping the last 15 shots he faced over 33:34 in the 4-2 win over Toronto.  With the 4-0-0 week he extended his personal winning streak to seven games, his career best.  In those seven games he is 7-0-0, 1.85, .935, with one shutout.  In winning the first three games of the week at home, Holtby improved his home record this season 10-2-0, 1.84, .933, with one shutout.

Holtby was more efficient as games went on.  His save percentages by period were .932 in the first periods of games, .938 in the second period, and .961 in the third period of games.  The only two third period goals he allowed on a total of 51 shots faced came in a game the Caps led, 4-0.  Holtby had a typically fine week overall. At week’s end, he was ranked highly in a variety of categories (minimum: 500 minutes):

• Wins: 15 (1^st)
• Goals against average: 1.95 (1^st)
• Save percentage: .926 (9^th)
• Minutes: 1136:13 (8^th)

Power Play: 6-for-12 / 50.0 percent (season: 26.8 percent; rank: 3rd)

The Caps had their best week of the year on the power play in Week 7, both in goals scored (six) and efficiency (50.0 percent).  They did it with something old and something new.  The old was Alex Ovechkin, who recorded a pair of goals with the man advantage, his second and third power play goals of the season.  Ovechkin had been shooting in bad luck, recording only one power play goal on 33 shots (3.0 percent) entering Week 7.  He finished the week 2-for-11 (18.2 percent), much more in line with his career shooting percentage (14.6 percent) on the power play.

The new was Jason Chimera, who had a hand in half the team’s power play goals in Week 7 (1-2-3).  He doubled his power play point total for the season and has set a personal best in that category, his six points (3-3-6) surpassing his previous career best of five points, set twice.  Chimera is now fourth on the team in power play scoring, his six points trailing only Nicklas Backstrom (9), John Carlson (9), and Evgeny Kuznetsov (7).

Carlson had an interesting week.  He had three power play assists. That lifted him into a tie for fifth place among defensemen in power play assists for the season (7) and a tie for third in power play points (9).

Overall, the highlight was the Caps lighting up the Lightning for three power play goals on 11 shots on four power plays.  It was the highest power play goal total for a game this season to date and their highest since scoring three on four chances in a 5-4 Gimmick loss to Montreal last April 2^nd.  The last time they had more power play goals in a game was November 5, 2013, when they had four in six chances in a 6-2 win over the New York Islanders.

For the week, the Caps managed six goals on 27 shots (22.2 percent) in 19:21 of power play ice time (1.40 shots per minute).  It was a very good week overall.

Penalty Killing: 7-for-9 / 77.8 percent (season: 83.3 percent; rank: 9th)

The penalty killers have slipped a bit of late.  After posting an 85.7 percent efficiency rate in Week 5, Washington has dropped in each of the last two weeks, a 77.8 percent rate in Week 7.  In fact, over the last four weeks the penalty killers are 21-for-27 (77.8 percent).  This week the key was holding down the opportunities.  Three times in four games they faced just two shorthanded situations.  Unfortunately, they allowed goals in two of those games.

The thing is, the penalty killing was not as bad as the outcomes suggest.  They penalty killers did a good job of keeping puck from getting to the net, allowing only ten shots in 13:06 of ice time (0.76 shots per minute).

Even Strength 5-on-5 Goals for/Goals Against: 8-5 / plus-3 (season, 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio: 1.31; rank: 3^rd)

The bedrock number one might point to in terms of outcomes as the basis for success is winning the even-strength goal scoring battle.  The Caps won three of the games in that regard in Week 7, losing only the third game of the week when they allowed two even strength goals to Tampa Bay, scoring one of their own.  Only three teams have scored more 5-on-5 goals this season than the 47 such goals the Caps have (Dallas, Montreal, the Rangers).  If there is an odd number here it is that Alex Ovechkin did not record an even strength goal for the week.  Nevertheless, he finished Week 7 having scored more 5-on-5 goals than any player in the league (9; minimum: 250 minutes).

Faceoffs: 124-for-241 / 51.5 percent (season: 50.8% / rank: 9th)

It was a good week overall for the Caps in the circle, but as happens with such things at an individual game level, it was up and down.  The Caps alternated winning and losing games in the circle; their offensive and defensive end performances being almost mirror images of one another. 

Washington won the faceoff contest against Edmonton (58.5 percent) and Tampa Bay (55.4 percent) while losing it to Winnipeg (42.6 percent) and Toronto (48.3 percent).  The problem was not in the offensive zone, where the Caps won 46 of 81 draws for the week (56.8 percent) and did 50 percent or better in all four games.  Nor was it in the neutral zone, where Washington went 40-for-73 (54.8 percent) and also did 50 percent or better in all four games.  The defensive end was another story.  The Caps managed only one 50-plus percent performance for the week in their own end and won just 38 of 87 draws overall (43.7 percent).

Four Caps had more than 20 faceoffs for the week and three of them finished at or over 50 percent – Nicklas Backstrom (50.0), Jay Beagle (55.8), and Evgeny Kuznetsov (55.2).  Only Michael Latta finished under 50 percent (39.1 percent) an uncharacteristically low percentage of wins for a player who entered the week winning 58.5 percent of his draws.

Goals by Period:

The Caps won every period of the week overall.  In fact, at the individual level they only lost one period, that being the third period of their 4-2 win over Tampa Bay when they Caps were outscored, 2-1.  By period, their record was 6-1-5.  If nothing else, it is a reflection of the Capitals’ consistent effectiveness, their ability to beat or hold teams even on a period-to-period, game-to-game basis.

In the end…

Weeks do not get better than this often for teams at this level of play, even very good ones.  The perfect week catapulted the Caps to the top of the Metropolitan Division, one point ahead of the New York Rangers, who have lost three in a row and over whom the Caps hold a game in hand.  They have the second-best record in the Eastern Conference and are within the games in hand held over the Montreal Canadiens of tying the Habs (four point deficit, two games in hand).

The Caps did it in Week 7 with balance and an opportunistic bent.  They spread the points around, stepped up on the power play when the even strength scoring lagged a bit, and got superb goaltending from Braden Holtby.  It has been the formula for success all season.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Braden Holtby (4-0-0, 1.75 GAA, .945 SV, 1 shutout)
• Second Star: Jason Chimera (2-2-4, even, 7 SOG, 1-2-3 on power play, set personal career high in power play points for season)
• Third Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (1-3-4, plus-4, 55.2 percent on faceoffs)

Washington Capitals Recap: A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 4 - Maple Leafs 2

The Washington Capitals ended the November portion of their schedule on a high note, defeating the Toronto Maple Leafs, 4-2, for their fifth straight win.  With the win, the Caps jumped over the New York Rangers to grab the top spot in the Metropolitan Division.

Jason Chimera got the Caps off and running early when he collected a loose puck at the top of his own crease and headed up ice on what would eventually be a 2-on-1 rush with Andre Burakovsky on his right.  Chimera carried the puck in and called his own number from just inside the top of the left wing circle, beating goalie Jonathan Bernier to the long side past Bernier’s glove at the 3:43 mark.

Toronto tied the game less than three minutes later on a put-back goal by Peter Holland from the hash marks at the inside edge of the right wing circle.  That would be the way the first period ended, but the Caps would break on top early in the second, thanks to a gift from the hosts.  A dump-in by the Caps was stopped by Bernier, who left it for Morgan Rielly.  For just a moment, Rielly took a look back to see who was trailing, and it was enough to allow the puck to slide off the toe of his stick.  It was teed up nicely for Tom Wilson closing on the play, and Wilson made the Leafs pay, curling the puck back to his forehand and sliding it gently through the five hole and just over the goal line to make it 2-1 just over four minutes into the period.

The Leafs tied the game for a second time on a power play goal by Leo Komarov, but that tie did not last long.  With the Caps on their own power play mid-way through the period, John Carlson fed Alex Ovechkin for a one-timer from the left wing circle.  Ovechkin’s shot struck the shaft of Roman Polak’s stick, then caromed to the front of the net where it hit Marcus Johansson in the leg and popped into the back of the net to make it 3-2 at the 11:08 mark.

The Caps converted another power play just over two minutes later.  Chimera took a pass from Nicklas Backstrom and carried the puck down the right side. Heading down the wall after he crossed the Toronto blue line, he backhanded a pass to the middle where Justin Williams was filling in.  Williams one-timed a shot past Bernier’s blocker, and it was 4-2 at the 13:26 mark of the second period.

The Caps eschewed playing “prevent” defense with a two-goal lead and put on a clinic in playing keep-away with the puck below the Maple Leaf faceoff circles for long stretches over the last 26 minutes.  It did not make for much in the way of scoring chances of their own, but they kept the Leafs bottled up in their own zone, skating off with a 4-2 win in the end.

Other stuff…

-- This is the second time in team history that the Caps recorded 17 wins in their first 23 games.  The other time was in 1991-1992 when they went 17-6-0, making this their best 23-game start ever (17-5-1).  In their last 82 regular season games the Caps are 52-22-8 (112 points).

-- Braden Holtby won his seventh straight decision, a personal best.  In those seven games he is 7-0-0, 1.85, .935, with one shutout.

-- When Jason Chimera recorded an assist on Justin Williams’ power play goal in the second period, it was his sixth power play point of the season (3-3-6).  That is a career high in power play points for Chimera.  Twice before this season he had five, in 2007-2008 with Columbus and in 2013-2014 with the Caps.  Both times he had a goal and four assists.

-- The win was the Caps’ fifth in a row, tying their longest winning streak of the season (October 15-23).

-- Nine different players recorded points.  Chimera finished with two, his fifth multi-point game of the season and third in nine games.  Chimera matched his multi-point game total of each of the past two seasons.

-- How suffocating was the Capitals defense late (or perhaps more precisely, their offensive zone cycle)?  After Justin Williams’ goal, the Caps held Toronto to just 12 shot attempts at 5-on-5 over the last 26:34.

-- Marcus Johansson’s goal was his fifth of the season.  He is the seventh Capitals to reach five goals this season.

-- The win made the Caps 5-1-0 against the Atlantic Division and 9-3-0 against the Eastern Conference.  Their record against the East is the second best, by percentage of games won, to Montreal (14-0-2).

-- Tom Wilson’s goal was his first of the season and broke a 19-game streak without scoring one.

-- The Caps went 2-for-3 on the power play.  That makes them 6-for-9 over their last three games and has lifted the Caps into third place in power play efficiency (26.8 percent).  Their special teams goal differential (power play and shorthanded goals for less power play and shorthanded goals against) of plus-10 is second best in the league (Montreal: plus-11).

In the end…

As November inches toward its close, the Capitals and the Montreal Canadiens are the class of the Eastern Conference.  With the New York Rangers having lost their third straight game on Saturday, the Caps and Canadiens have the top two records in the conference (the Caps have a game in hand on the Rangers, two on the Canadiens).  They are the only teams in the conference – in the league, in fact – with a goal differential per game of 1.00 or greater.  They have the second and third best power plays in the conference; they rank sixth (Washington) and first (Montreal) in penalty killing.  They rank first (Montreal) and second (Washington) in score-adjusted Corsi in the East.

And now, as the calendar turns over to a new month, the Caps and the Canadiens will meet this coming Thursday in what might be a benchmark game for both teams.  The Caps have four days off to recharge and prepare for that game after finishing the month with a fine 9-3-1 November, three of the four losses by a single goal.  It is a rest well-earned...