Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 12

Week 12 for the Washington Capitals was an example of the old notion of “what have you done for me lately?”  The Caps had their 11^th winning week in 12, widened the lead in their division (from 10 to 12 points) and the Eastern Confernce (from 10 to 11 points), and yet by week’s end they looked like a tired, depleted, leaky group more than they did the team with the second best record in the league. 

Record: 2-1-1

The Caps came into Week 12 with a seven-game winning streak and a schedule of four games against teams that were a combined 42-53-12, none of the three teams they would face having winning records.  On paper, it looked like a good bet that the Caps would extend their streak to 11 games and establish an all but insurmountable distance between themselves and their closest division and conference pursuers in the standings.

A couple of solid wins over the Buffalo Sabres in a home-and-home series to open the week only fueled the sense that Week 12 would be a happy one, but the Caps lost two centers in the second contest against the Sabres.  Nicklas Backstrom sat out the third period after absorbing a bit hit on his last shift of the second period, and Jay Beagle sustained a hand injury that required surgery and will keep him out of the lineup for six weeks.  Backstrom came back to play in the last two games of the week, but for a team already missing both defensemen on its top pair – John Carlson and Brooks Orpik – and now a center who could play decent defense and win a lot of faceoffs, the four game week took its toll in the end.

Offense:  3.25/game (season: 3.13 /game; rank: 2nd)

The Caps had a good week in the offensive end of the rink, but it could have been better.  Washington faced four goaltenders (three of them backups) who started their games against the Caps with a combined record of 21-28-8, 2.74, .905.  Then they faced a third-string goalie – Columbus’ Anton Forsberg – making his first appearance of the season in overtime of a 4-4 game, and they failed to score on him despite the benefit of a 4-on-3 power play.

Overall, there was a lack of balance in the week as well.  Of the 13 goals scored, Alex Ovechkin had four of them, bringing his season total to 21, lifting him into fifth place in the league in goals, just a hat trick behind the Dallas Stars’ Jamie Benn.  Eight other Caps shared in the other nine goals, Marcus Johansson the only Cap of that group with two goals for the week.

If there were surprises in Week 12 for the Caps on offense, they came in the collection of players who had assists.  Tom Wilson tied for the team lead in that area with three helpers in four games, giving him 11 on the year (his career high is 13, set last season).  Matt Niskanen tied Wilson for the team lead with three assists for the week, bringing his total for the season to 14.  Of note is the fact that Niskanen recorded assists in each of the last three games of the week, and two of those assists came on the power play as he took over responsibility on the top power play unit for the injured John Carlson.

Defense: 2.50/game (season: 2.16 /game; rank:1st)

It was not a bad week for the Caps in terms of shots against, the team holding opponents to fewer than 30 shots in two of the four games.  It was not as if the Caps faced stiffs in that department as the Buffalo Sabres, who the Caps faced twice, and the Carolina Hurricanes ranked 13^th and 14^th in shots per game at week’s end (the Columbus Blue Jackets, who were held to 29 shots, rank 21^st) .

Then there was the subtle problem. With John Carlson and Brook Orpik on the shelf with injuries, Niskanen and Karl Alzner were moved up a rung to the top pair this week.  By the end of the week they had performed relatively well, Alzner being the only one of that pair to have been on ice for a goal against at 5-on-5 (and it was just one).  But it was Niskanen and Alzner on the ice with the clock approaching one minute in regulation and the Columbus net empty when Brandon Saad got behind them both to score the game-tying goal in the Caps’ 5-4 Gimmick loss to end the week.  Niskanen averaged more than 28 minutes of ice time for the week, Alzner almost 24 minutes, and they looked to be dragging a bit at the end.

Possession was an issue for the Caps in Week 12, again.  This week’s profile looked different though.  Overall, the Caps out-attempted opponents at 5-on-5 to a Corsi-for percentage of 52.3.  However, they were plus-22 in 5-on-5 attempts in the second Buffalo game of the week, minus-4 over the other three games.  And, their close score Corsi was a poorer 48.2 percent, plus-14 against Buffalo in that second of the home-and-home games and minus-23 otherwise.

Goaltending: 2.22 /.929 / 1 shutout (season: 2.02 / .927 / 2 shutouts)

Goaltending was another case of what looked like a good week overall until one got down to the particulars, especially at the end of the week.  Braden Holtby took the first two games of the week, the home-and-home set against Buffalo, and allowed just two goals on 58 shots (a .966 save percentage), winning both games and pitching a shutout in the first of the two games.

Holtby and Philipp Grubauer split the last two games of the week, going 0-1-1, 3.39, .892.  What was more disturbing was the save percentage in the third period of those last two games: .778 (14-for-18).  Was this a case of opponents getting better opportunities against a depleted and fatigued defense, was it a blip on an otherwise fine goaltending ledger for the season, or was it evidence of an emerging slump that might be a case of poor possession chickens coming home to roost?

Power Play: 3-for-10 / 30.0 percent (season: 25.6 percent; rank: 2nd)

The Caps had a good week on the man advantage for the most part, part of a run that has them converting 33.3 percent of their opportunities (9-for-27) over the last three weeks.  But not everything was unicorns and accordions here, either.  The Caps played four games and had just ten power play opportunities.  They had none against Carolina in a 4-2 loss, the second time this season they were not awarded a power play opportunity.  They had only one chance in the game in Buffalo to start the week.  More than half of their opportunities (six) and two of their power play goals for the week came against Columbus.  Overall, the Caps finished the week tied for the tenth-fewest power play opportunities per game (3.08).

What chances the Caps had, they fared well., to a point  They finished the week with three goals on 23 shots (13.0 percent shooting) in 17:01 of power play time (1.35 shots per minute).  More than a third of the shots came from Alex Ovechkin (8), but he did not record any of the three power play goals.  Marcus Johansson, Jason Chimera, and T.J. Oshie recorded the goals for the Caps.  The blot on the record was the power play in overtime against Columbus to end the week in which they shot 0-for-6 against a third string goalie (Anton Forsberg) on their way to a 5-4 freestyle loss.

Penalty Killing: 11-for-13 / 84.6 percent (season: 84.7 percent; rank: 5th)

Week 12 was a solid week for the penalty killers, part of another good three week run (27-for-31/87.1 percent).  That the Caps finished the week a plus-one in special teams despite a special teams index (power play plus penalty killing percentages) of 114.6 was not a problem of the men manning the shorthanded responsibility.  One might have liked finishing the week with less time spent killing penalties, the Caps skating 18:20 in shorthanded situations, 6:49 more than they spent on the power play.  But they made up for it with killing off penalties in an efficient manner, allowing only 17 shots on goal in that 18:20 of shorthanded ice time (0.93 shots per minute).

It would have been a lot better week without the last game of the week.  In their first three games of Week 12, the Caps killed all 10 shorthanded situations they faced and held opponents to 15 shots in 18 minutes of shorthanded ice time (0.83 shots per minute).  In that last game of the week, against Columbus, the Blue Jackets scored on both of their power play shots on goal and went 2-for-3 in 1:10 of power play ice time.

Even Strength 5-on-5 Goals for/Goals Against: 9-7 / plus-2 (season, 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio: 1.43; rank: 1st)

It was a good week overall, but it was better early than it was late at 5-on-5.  The Caps opened the week scoring both of their goals at evens in the shutout of Buffalo. After that it was break-even, splitting four 5-on-5 goals with the Sabres in their second game, going minus-1 in the 4-2 loss to Carolina, and going plus-1 in the 5-4 trick shot loss to Columbus.

It says something that a week in which the Caps had a 1.29 goals-for/goals-against ratio at 5-on-5 results in a drop in that number for the season.  It also hints at what might be a regression in that number if it starts to align more closely with possession numbers that are still an issue, an issue made more important by the injuries the team is dealing with at the moment.

Faceoffs: 111-for-241 / 46.1 percent (season: 49.5% / rank: 21st)

It was a bad week in the circle for the Caps.  They were under 50 percent in all four games and in all three zones for the week.  It was worse for missing Jay Beagle for the last two-plus games of the week after he suffered a hand injury.  Beagle was his typical efficient self, going 14-for-21 before he was sidelined.  The rest of the club was 44.1 percent, worse in the offensive end (42.3 percent) and the defensive end (43.3 percent).  Michael Latta was the only Cap taking more than ten draws for the week who finished over 50 percent (13-for-23/56.5 percent).

Goals by Period:

Third periods were not kind to the Caps in Week 12. The five goals allowed over the last three games after the shutout of Buffalo were double the goals allowed over the first two periods of games for the week and constitute 20 percent of the total goals allowed by the club in the third period of games this season before Week 12 (25).  As it is, the Caps are still the only club in the league to allow 30 or fewer goals in all three regulation periods this season.  Only four other teams have allowed 30 or fewer goals in two of the regulation periods this season.

In the end…

A 2-1-1 week looks better when the “2” comes at the end of the week and is something to build on.  When the week ends with a pair of losses, ending the Caps’ consecutive games streak without suffering back-to-back losses at 37 games, and to a pair of struggling teams, no less, it is cause for some concern. 

As the Caps embark on Week 13 and the last three games of their five-game road trip, they are facing their biggest challenge of the season – fight through the injuries that have depleted their defense and shortened the depth chart at center, and solve the persistent possession numbers problem they have had for more than a month.  If they do neither, the burden on goaltending becomes more acute and the likelihood of continued success diminished.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Alex Ovechkin (4-0-4, plus-1, 26 shots on goal, 53 shot attempts; 10 shots on goal against Buffalo; 22 shot attempts against Columbus)
• Second Star: Braden Holtby (2-0-1, 1.95, .931, one shutout)
• Third Star: Marcus Johansson (2-2-4, plus-1, power play/game-winning goal, personal season high seven shots on goal against Buffalo).

Washington Capitals Recap: A ONE-Point Night: Blue Jackets 5 - Capitals 4 (OT/Gimmick)

The Washington Capitals ended 2015 by seeing one streak come to an end.  They started 2016 seeing two more streaks come to an end as they dropped a 5-4 trick shot decision to the Columbus Blue Jackets on Saturday night.

It was an odd game from the start.  Dmitry Orlov took a slashing penalty less than 90 seconds into the contest, and Jack Johnson set off the cannon at Nationwide Arena just eight seconds later when he pounced on a loose puck from in close to the right of goalie Braden Holtby.  Keep this goal in mind, we will get back to it.

It was a Capitals power play that led to the tying goal just under six minutes later.  It was almost a replica of the Columbus power play goal.  T.J. Oshie won a faceoff to Matt Niskanen at the right point.  Niskanen slid the puck to Nicklas Backstrom, who started a set play, passing the puck down to Marcus Johansson at the goal line extended.  Johansson relayed the puck to Oshie in the slot, and Oshie one-timed it past goalie Curtis McElhinney to tie the game.  It came eight seconds after the faceoff win by the Caps.

The teams exchanged goals again later in the first period.  Columbus grabbed the lead back when the Caps could not clear their own end.  Alexander Wennberg held off Nate Schmidt along the right wing wall, a battle that seemed to mesmerize the Caps, because as it was going on, Brandon Saad worked his way between the hash marks all alone.  He took a feed from Wennberg, faked Holtby to the ice, and snapped the puck in at the 7:56 mark.

Jaosn Chimera tied the game less than four minutes later on another Caps power play.  He set himself up at the top of the crease, getting and holding inside position on Jack Johnson as the Caps were working the puck around the perimeter.  Finally, Evgeny Kuznetsov fired the puck toward the net, and Chimera redirected it past McElhinney to tie the game at 11:47 of the first period.

The second period went comparatively calmly on the scoreboard, the Caps getting the only tally late in the period.  It was a case of basic hockey done well.  Zach Sill stated the scoring sequence by feeding the puck from his blue line to Chimera, who chipped it deep into the Blue Jackets’ zone.  Chimera followed up on the puck with hard pressure on Justin Falk, who was trying to chase down the biscuit at the end wall.  Falk was pressure by Chimera to throwing the puck back around the wall, where it was picked off by Tom Wilson.  From the corner, Wilson spied Marcus Johansson cutting to the net.  He fed the puck in front, and Johansson steered it past McElhinney to make it 3-2 heading to the last 20 minutes.

Columbus tied the game in the fifth minute of the period on a strange goal.  While on a power play, Ryan Johansen took a cross-ice feed from David Savard, then slid the puck to Jack Johnson just inside the blue line.  As Johnson wound up to fire a slap shot, Brooks Laich went one way, and Nate Schmidt went another out of the path of the shot.  In one sense it might have given Braden Holtby a better look at it, one the other, the shot seemed to explode on Holtby who did not react in time to stop the puck sailing low and through his pads.

Evgeny Kuznetsov restored the Caps’ lead less than a minute later on a delightful give-and-go with Tom Wilson.  Kuznetsov skated through the middle and slid the puck to Wilson as he crossed the blue line.  As Kuznetsov continued his advance to the net, Wilson feathered a delicate pass past the stick of Johnson to him, and Kuznetsov did the rest, faking McElhinney to the ice and sliding the puck past his left pad at 5:27 of the period.

Given the way the season has gone for the Caps to that point, fans might have been forgiven for thinking the Caps would lock things down and get out with a win.  They didn’t lock things down quite tightly enough.  With the clock ticking down to one minute in regulation, and the Blue Jacket net empty, Brandon Saad took a long feed from Jack Johnson, broke in on Holtby, and snapped a backhand past Holtby’s glove to tie the game a 4-4.

The came overtime, which might have been a Twilight Zone episode to be wedged into the marathon showing on cable television this weekend.  Just 55 seconds into the overtime, McElhinney fell awkwardly in his crease without having been touched, bending his knee beneath him at a painful angle.  He could not continue, and it was up to Anton Forsberg to take over in the Columbus goal with the teams skating at 3-on-3.

A little more than a minute after the goalie exchange, the Blue Jackets took a slashing penalty, Brandon Dubinsky to the box.  So, the Blue Jackets were down to their number three goalie (Sergei Bobrovsky still out with an injury), the Caps – the second-best power play in the league – were on a 4-on-3 power play, and a player averaging almost two minutes of penalty killing ice time per game was in the box.  This would be a slam dunk, right?

It was at that Point that Anton Forsberg turned into Georges Vezina, Ken Dryden, and Patrick Roy, all rolled into a Blue Jacket goalie sized jersey.  The Caps recorded eight shot attempts on the power play, six of them on goal.  None of them crossed the goal line.  Columbus escaped disaster and even ended up with a power play of their own to close out the last half minute of regulation, but the teams would go to the Gimmick.

In the freestyle phase of the competition, T.J. Oshie undressed Forsberg in the opening round, the goalie biting on the backhand fake like it was a dog being offered a soup bone by his owner.  Oshie ended up with nothing but an open net in which to slide the puck, and again it looked like it would be a slam dunk for the Caps. 

The only thing that got slammed was the door, though, as Forsberg held firm against Evgeny Kuznetsov and Nicklas Backstrom, giving Columbus the chance to recover and get goals from Dubinsky and Johansson to upset the Caps, 5-4.

Other stuff…

-- About that first Jack Johnson goal.  The play started with the Caps shorthanded and the faceoff in their own end.  Nicklas Backstrom, who has been struggling a bit on faceoffs lately, took the draw and lost it cleanly to Ryan Johansen, setting in motion the events that led to the goal eight seconds later.  If he was healthy, does Jay Beagle – a 58.4 percent performer in the circle – take that draw? Then there was the second Columbus goal.  Orlov was caught following Scott Hartnell into the corner, and Nate Schmidt was hung up along the wall on the same side, leaving no defensemen to clog the route Brandon Saad took to take a pass and score from in close all alone.

-- Consider these two sets of four numbers – 27:25, 25:40, 28:25, and 32:04; 26:23, 20:24, 22:56, and 25:42.  Those are the ice time logs over the past four games for Matt Niskanen and Karl Alzner, respectively.  Those four games were played without John Carlson, who joined first defensive pair partner Brooks Orpik on the bench with an injury.  Niskanen skated 32:04 in this game, including a whopping 8:02 on the power play in place of Carlson.  Alzner, who gets no appreciable power play time as a rule, led the team in even strength ice time (25:04).   It is little surprise that it was Alzner that Saad snuck behind to break into the Caps zone on the last game-tying goal, and that it was Niskanen who could not quite close the distance to get his stick on Saad’s shot.  Those two are getting too many minutes at the moment.

-- Old diesel engines used to take forever to warm up, and that was what Alex Ovechkin’s game looked like in this one.  He did not record his first shot attempt until the 9:27 mark (blocked by Ryan Murray).  That late entry into the game in the offensive end was the first of what would be ten consecutive shot attempts that would not reach the goaltender (seven blocked, three misses).  He did not get his first shot on goal until the 10:03 mark of the third period.  In that last 10:03 and five minutes of overtime he recorded six shots, one shot blocked, and another five misses.

-- Braden Holtby allowed more than three goals in a game for the first time in almost two months.  The four goals he allowed broke a personal streak of 21 appearances in which he did not allow more than three goals (including one in which he allowed three in 29 minutes against Tampa Bay before he was relieved by Philipp Grubauer).

-- This was the first time this season that the Caps scored three or more goals in a game and lost.  They are 20-0-1 in those games now.

-- This was the first time this season that the Caps lost a game when leading after two periods.  They are still one of one of 11 teams that has not lost a game in regulation when leading after 40 minutes, and they remain tied with the Dallas Stars for the top spot in wins when leading after two periods (19).

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov recorded his fourth two-point game in his last seven contests.  He is 3-4-7 over those games.

-- Marcus Johansson recorded his third multi-point game in his last seven contests, going 3-5-8 over that span.

-- Tom Wilson had his second two-point game in a week.  He is 0-5-5 in his last five games and is now within two assists of tying a career best (13) set last season.  He also broke a four-game streak in which he took penalty minutes.

-- The Caps did just about everything right.  They outshot the Blue Jackets, 33-29. They had more power play chances (six) than Columbus (3).  They got points from eight different players, and the four goals were scored by four different players, so score on for balance.  They were out-Corsi’ed at 5-on-5 (48-42), and they lost the faceoff battle (36-29)…they didn’t get everything right. 

In the end...

The Caps did get enough right that they should have won this game, especially when presented with the advantages of a goalie making his first appearance of the season in the most difficult of moments – replacing an injured goalie in a 3-on-3 overtime.  Add in the power play that the Caps were awarded in the extra session, and this should have ended differently.  That it did not, ending the Caps’ streak of games without consecutive losses this season at 37, might now be cause for some concern.  The Caps can sponge some of that away when they take on the Bruins in Boston on Tuesday, but at the moment the injuries have peeled back the curtain to show a club that still has issues in their fundamental numbers, making it less capable of pulling out wins when the goalie has an off night.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 38: Capitals at Blue Jackets, January 2nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals kick off the 2016 portion of their season on Saturday night when they visit Columbus, Ohio, to face the Blue Jackets.  This will be the second meeting between these Metropolitan Division rivals this season, the Caps winning the first meeting by a 2-1 margin on October 30^th in Washington.

The Caps are looking to start 2016 on a positive note, but just as important, they are looking to start another winning streak.  The Caps had their nine-game winning streak stopped in Carolina on Thursday evening, the Hurricanes giving the Caps their first loss in three weeks, 4-2.

The Blue Jackets, on the other hand, are a struggling hockey club.  Columbus relieved Todd Richards of his head coaching duties on October 21^st after an 0-7-0 start, but the club has not done much better under John Tortorella as Richards’ replacement.  Columbus is 14-15-3 under Tortorella, but their record has been deteriorating over the last five weeks.   In their last 15 games they have three losing streaks of three or more games, and their December was gruesome.  The Blue Jackets finished the month with a 4-7-3 record, and they come into this game as losers in three of their last four games.

Offense has not been altogether bad over the last month.  The Blue Jackets averaged 2.64 goals over 14 games.  Defense and goaltending was another matter.  Columbus gave up an average of 3.29 goals per game in December, causing their overall scoring defense to drop to 28^th in the league (3.13 goals per game). 

Scott Hartnell is one of those rare combinations of coarse sandpaper and fine skill.  He leads team in goals (15), points (28), and total penalty minutes (71).  He had a fine December for the Blue Jackets, leading the team with six goals in 14 games and tying for the team lead in points (12).  With 15 goals on the season he is on a pace to finish with his fifth straight 20-goal season (not including the abbreviated 2012-2013 season).  Hartnell is 13-12-25, plus-7, in 38 career games against Waahington.

Nick Foligno shrugged off a slow start to the 2015-2016 season and put together a very good December.  After beginning the campaign with one goal (on 1-for-62 shooting (1.6 percent)) and nine assists in 25 games, Foligno recorded four goals in December and tied Hartnell for the team lead in points with 12.  He is coming into the contest with the Caps having recorded points in his last five games (1-6-7).  Foligno is 6-11-17, plus-6, in 24 career games against the Caps.

On the blue line, it is a case of youth being served.  David Savard (0-13-13) and Ryan Murray (3-10-13) lead the defensemen in points, although Savard has a minus-13 to go with his 13 points.  They came to their positions from very different starting points, but having taken similar paths.  Murray was the highly thought of prospect who was drafted second overall by the Blue Jackets in the 2012 entry draft.  He spent another year in Canadian juniors, then joined the Blue Jackets in the 2013-2014 season.  Savard, on the other hand, was a fourth-round (94^th overall) pick by Columbus in the 2009 entry draft.  He spent another year in Canadian juniors, then a season in the AHL.  He split time with the Blue Jackets and the AHL in 2011-2012 before sticking with the club for good in 2013-2014.  Savard just turned 25 this season, and Murray turned 22 just before the season started.  Neither has much experience against the Caps, Murray with a pair of assists in five career games, and Savard with a pair of goals in nine career contests against Washington.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  There is an odd coincidence about the Blue Jackets’ performance in December.  They were outscored in goals by a 46-37 margin (not including shootout winners), and they faced 48 shorthanded situations to 39 power plays on special teams. 

2.  Goaltending has been an uneven proposition for Columbus so far this season.  Number one netminder Sergei Bobrovsky has decent numbers (2.52 goals against average, .916 save percentage), but he has not been able to reach the level of performance of his 2012-2013 Vezina Trophy season when he was 21-11-6, 2.00, .932, with four shutouts.  Compounding the problem is that he suffered a groin injury in early December that has kept him out of the lineup for ten games.  He could return against Washington on Saturday.

3.  Only three teams have a worse winning percentage when leading at the first intermission than the Blue Jackets.  Toronto (.600), Arizona (.563), and Carolina (.556) are below Columbus (.643) in the rankings.  Not that it seems to matter much.  Columbus has taken a lead into the first intermission only 14 times in 39 games.

4.  Scoring on the power play has been an issue for the Blue Jackets.  Only Winnipeg (8), Calgary (7), and Philadelphia (7) have fewer power play goals scored on home ice than Columbus (9), and they have the sixth-wort power play percentage on home ice (15.3).

5.  Columbus is not a strong possession team.  The rank 25^th in Corsi-for overall (47.4 percent), 24^th in score-adjusted Corsi (47.2 percent), and 24^th in close score Corsi (47.0).  The numbers were slightly worse in December (47.1/46.9/46.7; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  The Capitals finished December with an 11-2-1 record for the month.  They fell just short of their best December ever (12-2-2 in 1984-1985).

2.  The Caps had an interesting month on special teams.  Their special teams index of 111.9 (power play plus penalty killing percentages) was superb in December.  However, only three times in 14 games were the Caps awarded more power play opportunities than their opponents.  Nine times it was the opponent who enjoyed more power play opportunities.

3.  Penalty killing on the road has been a bright spot for the Caps.  They are tied for the third-best penalty kill in the league (86.2 percent), and only Anaheim (7) and Pittsburgh (7) have allowed fewer power play goals on the road than the Caps.

4.  The Caps have been a dominant third period team this season.  Their plus-17 goal differential in the third period is second overall (Dallas: plus-20).

5.  While the Caps dominated play on the scoreboard, and in wins and losses, they were frankly poor in possession numbers for December.  Their overall, score-adjusted, and close score Corsi percentages of 46.5/48.6/46.9 percent for the month (numbers from war-on-ice.com) suggest either an improvement is in order, or a correction in scoring and win-loss results is coming.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Columbus: Ryan Johansen

When the player who is arguably your most important offensive weapon goes an entire month without a goal, chances are that your team will not fare very well.  Ryan Johansen did not record a goal in December, and yes, the Blue Jackets did not fare well.  Johansen did have seven assists in 13 games in December (three in his last four games), but he was a healthy scratch in a 7-5 loss to the Arizona Coyotes on December 17^th, and he did not record a shot on goal in either of his last two games.  He still has a respectable 25 points in 36 games overall, but he is on a pace to finish with his lowest points per game (0.69) since his sophomore season in 2012-2013, owing to goal production that is on a pace to be roughly half (14) of what he had last season (26 in 82 games).  Johansen is 4-4-8, minus-1, in 11 career games against the Capitals.

Washington: Brooks Laich

Brooks Laich played 82 games in calendar year 2015.  It was not one for the scrapbook.  He finished 5-13-18, minus-7, and shot to a 5.0 percentage (five goals on 100 shots).  It looks a lot like his production over the last four seasons overall (an 82-game average of 9-14-22, minus-6, 3.7 percent).  He is getting the fewest minutes of his career in Washington (10:45 per game).  His assist in the Caps’ 4-2 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes was his first point in 13 games.  He is without a goal since recording the game-winner in a 4-1 win over the Boston Bruins on November 5^th, a streak of 25 games without a goal and counting.  He has good possession numbers, fourth in Corsi-for percentage among forwards appearing in at least ten games for the Caps (52.6), but if the Caps are to get past their injury issues without undue damage to their win-loss record, it seems reasonable that Laich’s performance numbers – goals, assists, and points – will have to improve some as well.  He is 3-5-8, minus-2, in 15 career games against Columbus.

In the end…

The Capitals are 8-0-0 in games following losses this season, outscoring opponents by a 28-12 margin (not including shootout winners) with a power play performing at 25.0 percent in those games, and it is one scenario in which the Caps have enjoyed an advantage in special team opportunities (28 power plays versus 18 shorthanded situations).  It is evidence of avoiding the too-high highs and the too-low lows, of taking care of business on a night to night basis.  That has been a recurring theme, but on the other hand, any loss in the context of the Capitals poor possession numbers over the last six weeks can have one thinking about whether any loss is the start of an alignment of record to underlying numbers.  Better than the Caps correct those underlying numbers than test fate with persistently poor possession numbers.

Capitals 3 – Blue Jackets 2

 

Washington Capitals Recap: A NO-Point Night: Hurricanes 4 - Capitals 2

The Washington Capitals took SPAM and almost made filet mignon out of it, but their comeback against the Carolina Hurricanes fell short, 4-2, in Raleigh on Thursday night.

The loss ended the Capitals’ winning streak at nine games and came three weeks to the day after their previous loss, a 4-1 decision in Florida against the Panthers.

One might have had a feeling early on that this would not be the Caps’ night.  Although the first period ended scoreless, the Hurricanes enjoyed a 24-13 edge in total shot attempts and an 11-8 edge in shots on goal.  The pressure got to the Caps early in the second period when Phil DiGiuseppe converted a cross-ice feed from Joachim Nordstrom, one timing the puck off goalie Philipp Grubauer’s stick and arm, and into the back of the net.

The Caps tied the game barely two minutes later when Nicklas Backstrom took a feed from Karl Alzner at his own blue line, worked his way op ice into the Carolina zone, and when the defense gave him space, he wristed a sneaky shot past goalie Eddie Lack to make it 1-1 at the 9:49 mark.

That is the way the score stood going into the second intermission, but it did not stay that way for long into the third period.  Eric Staal broke the tie at the 51 second mark…barely.  A Kris Versteeg shot was kicked out by Grubauer, but it was a long rebound into the slot.  Elias Lindholm took a whack at it, and the puck took a couple of odd bounces, eventually sliding to the top of the crease to Grubauer’s right where Staal found it.  Staal had nothing but an open net to shoot at, but his shot was knocked down by Grubauer’s stick.  The referee signaled no goal, and the teams played on.  Play continued for another 28 seconds until the horn stopped play.  After review, it was clear that while Grubauer knocked the shot out of the air with his stick, the puck fell to the ice behind the goal line, a good goal.

Jeff Skinner made it 3-1 a little more than four minutes later when Riley Nash worked the puck around the back of the Washington net and fed it out to Skinner in front for a one-timer that beat Grubauer cleanly.

The Caps took advantage of sloppy Carolina play in front of their own net to close the margin to one goal.  Defenseman Noah Hanafin sent the puck forward to Brett Pesce along the right wing wall.  Pesce’s return pass to Hanafin was deflected into the air by Brooks Laich.  Hanafin looked torn between gloving the puck down and letting it fall to the ice.  He chose the latter.  He chose poorly.  He lost track of the puck, and it was just enough for Alex Ovechkin to dart in, take possession, and rifle it over Lack;s glove  to make it 3-2 at the 14:16 mark.

Try as they might, and the effort was considerable, the Caps could not get the equalizer.  Andrej Nestrasil closed the scoring with an empty net goal with 17.8 seconds left to clinch the 4-2 victory for the Hurricanes.

Other stuff…

-- Three of the Caps’ seven losses in regulation this season have come on Thursday nights, against the Dallas Stars, Florida, and now Carolina.

-- Small things, good and bad, that loomed large..  On the Ovechkin goal, as Noah Hanafin was wrestling with the idea of gloving the puck down or letting it fall to him, Zach Sill jumped up to pester him and perhaps give Ovechkin the split second he needed to get to the puck before Hanafin could recover.  On the other side, shortly before the empty-net goal by Andrej Nestrasil, Matt Niskanen was unable to negate an icing call as Eric Staal caught and passed him to get to the puck and keep play going.  Had there been an icing, the Caps might have taken advantage of a time out to plot their last bit of strategy.

-- The “500 goal” watch can now begin in earnest.  Alex Ovechkin’s goal was his 496^th career goal, and puts him one big night from reaching the milestone (he has three four-goal games in his career).

-- Philipp Grubauer deserves credit for playing a fine game.  He allowed three goals on 36 shots, and on none of them could he be fairly described as leaky. 

-- The rest of the defense?  Well, they were pretty leaky in terms of letting Carolina run around in the Caps’ zone.  They held a 69-53 advantage in total shot attempts, and while the attempts at 5-on-5 were relatively close for the game as a whole (57-52, Carolina), the Hurricanes held a 43-27 edge over the first two periods at 5-on-5 (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

-- Brooks Laich was credited with an assist on the Ovechkin goal, not the prettiest of passes, but a fine effort on his part to harass Brett Pesce into having to make a return pass to Noah Hanafin that he got his stick on.  The assist was his first point since December 3^rd, ending a 12-game streak without one.

-- Karl Alzner had four shots on goal (second on the team in this game).  That might not sound too impressive, but it is his high for the season and the first time he had that many shots on goal in a game in more than two years (December 30, 2013, when he had five in a 3-1 loss to the Ottawa Senators).

-- For the second time this season, the Capitals did not have a power play.  The first time was on November 19^th in a 3-2 loss to the Dallas Stars.  They have had only eight power play opportunities over their last five games.

-- On the other side, the penalty killers were a perfect 3-for-3, the fifth straight game in which the opponent was denied a power play goal.  That is their longest streak of the season.

-- The loss kept the Caps from having their best December in franchise history.  They finished the month with an 11-2-1 record.  The 1984-1985 team keeps the record of 12-2-2.

In the end…

This loss stings a bit, given that they Caps lost to a team that looked inferior on paper (even with the Caps’ injury situation), but streaks end.  The team did not lack for effort, but a combination of three games in four nights, injuries to key personnel, Carolina having a good night, and the sheer unlikelihood of putting up double-digit game streaks all worked against the Caps.

It was not the best way to start a five-game road trip, but the Caps get a chance to start the new year off right with another streak when they visit Columbus on Saturday.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 37: Capitals at Hurricanes, December 31st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well, guys, it’s New Year’s Eve, and the Caps are playing the Carolina Hurricanes to ring out the old year.  Do you see a win in the cards?

Fearless:  Of course.  There is a beautiful symmetry to nature, and it seems only fitting that the Caps would begin the year with a rousing victory in the Winter Classic and end it with a win over a former division rival.

Cheerless?

Cheerless: …

Cheerless??

Cheerless: “zzzzzzz…sknx…..”

CHEERLESS!!!

Cheerless: “…huh?...what??”

Caps?  Hurricanes?  Hockey game?

Cheerless: “oh, yeah…”

Fearless: “Getting an early start on celebrating the new year, cousin?”

Cheerless: “…hey, I gotta test the moonshine before I drink it, don’t i?”

Can we get back to the subject?  What do you think about the Caps and Hurricanes tonight, Cuz?

Cheerless: Well, if their Corsi is any indication, the Hurricanes have been all over the map this month.  They have had problems stringing together any sustained possession numbers and are sitting at 50.1 percent for the month, 48.1 percent in close score situations.

Fearless:  Peerless, is he really our cousin?

He does seem to have spent a lot of time at war-on-ice.com, doesn’t he?

Cheerless: “ha-ha-ha…can’t a person better themselves?”

Sure, a “person” can.  You on the other hand…

Cheerless:  Hey, who wrote that hugely popular thing about Corsi and the dogs? 

Fearless: “He has a point, cousin.  Folks actually read that piece, not like your work…”

Hush up!  OK, back to the game.  So, Carolina has inconsistent possession numbers.  Their record looks similarly wobbly this month, 7-5-1 overall, and they are not making any headway getting back into the playoff discussion, what with their being eight points behind New Jersey for fourth place in the Metropolitan Division.

Fearless: Worse for them, they are a rather poor home team, just 7-8-3 overall and 3-3-0 this month.

Cheerless: It’s hard to win many games when you can’t score (2.35 goals per game, 25^th in the league) and can’t stop people from scoring (2.84 goals against per game, 24^th in the league).

Fearless: They are a bottom-third team in special teams, too, just 17.5 percent on the power play (20^th) and 77.9 percent on the penalty kill (25^th).

Cheerless: And what’s with a defenseman leading them in scoring?  Justin Faulk has 30 points, and Half of them (15) come on the power play.  Don’t they have, like, a bunch of Staals?

They have two – Eric and Jordan – who between them have 14 goals and 36 points.

Cheerless: That’s barely one “Kuznetsov” (11-22-33).

Very good, cousin…taking fourth grade math for the third time seems to be the charm.  So, Carolina doesn’t score a lot, they give up a lot of goals, their special teams are anything but, and their prize forwards aren’t producing very well.  Think they have a chance?

Fearless: Sure…but not a good one.

Cheerless: A chance for what?

What, indeed.  Even with the Capitals limping into Raleigh with several key pieces missing due to injury, they still have a formidable group at both ends of the ice.  The year ends as it began.

Capitals 4 – Hurricanes 1

Washington Capitals Recap: A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 5 - Sabres 2

The Washington Capitals extended their season-long winning streak to nine games with a 5-2 win over the Buffalo Sabres on Wednesday night to sweep the home-and-home series, but the victory came at a price.  Jay Beagle suffered what was described later as an “upper-body injury” late in the second period and did not return.  Nicklas Backtrom sustained a similarly described injury on the last shift of the second period and did not return to the contest.

As for the game itself, it appeared as if the winning streak would come to an end in this game based on the first 40 minutes of play.  Buffalo opened the scoring just before the six-minute mark of the first period when Brian Gionta finished an excellent feed from Jack Eichel from the doorstep to goalie Braden Holtby’s left. 

The lead held for the Sabres through most of the second period, but with just under six minutes left in the frame, Justin Williams took advantage of a blunder by goalie Chad Johnson.  Trying to play the puck behind his own net, Johnson saw Evgeny Kuznetsov bearing down on him, turned to his left and slid the puck out, right onto Williams’ stick.  Williams stepped out and snapped the puck into the empty net to tie the game.

That lead did not last five minutes.  Zemgus Girgensons restored the Sabres’ lead, finishing another strong play by Eichel.  From the left wing circle and on his knees, Eichel backhanded the puck to the Caps’ net, where it was turned aside by Holtby.  It pinballed among a clot of players and dropped to the edge of the blue paint where Girgensons tapped it in. 

With the Caps down a goal and two centers heading into the third period, extending the winning streak looked like a daunting, if not impossible task.  It turned out to be another test that the team would pass.  Alex Ovechkin tied the game in the second minute of the period when he finished up a superb set up.  It started with T.J. Oshie beating defenseman Josh Gorges to the puck in the corner to the right of Johnson.  He slid it along the end wall to Kuznetsov behind the Sabres’ net, and Kuznetsov snuck it out on a back pass to Ovechkin, who was stepping around defenseman Zach Bogosian at the post.  Ovechkin backhanded the puck past Johnson’s right pad, and the game was tied once more, 2-2.

Washington took the lead for good on a power play mid-way through the period.  Evgeny Kuznetsov stepped up from the right wing wall and fired a shot from the inside edge of the faceoff circle.  Marcus Johansson got his stick on the puck to redirect it past Johnson, and it was 3-2 at the 8:32 mark.

Just 24 seconds later the Caps added some insurance. A hard forecheck yielded dividend on this one.  Brooks Laich pursued Gionta into the cornerand hounded him into trying to send the puck back around the wall.  It was intercepted by Johansson who, just before he was knocked off his feet by Bogosian, sent a pass through the slot to Andre Burakovsky in the right wing faceoff circle.  Burakovsky settled the puck and snapped it past Johnson to make it 4-2.

Ovechkin closed the scoring with an empty-net goal with 1:13 left, and the Caps had their ninth consecutive win, 5-2.

Other stuff…

-- Beagle’s injury appeared to be to his arm or shoulder.  He will require surgery and will be out for an extended period of time.  Backstrom was checked hard into the glass in the Olympia corner on his last shift of the second period and sat out the third.  He may play on Thursday night against the Carolina Hurricanes.

-- About that power play goal.  With Backstrom taking a seat for the third period and John Carlson still out with an injury, the defenseman role fell to Matt Niskanen, and the quarterback role on the right wing wall fell to Kuznetsov.  Both had assists on the Johansson power play goal. 

-- This is a place the Caps would consider a disaster in previous years for lack of a credible second line center.  However, Kuznetsov stepped up into Backstrom’s spot to record a power play assist and an assist centering the first line with Ovechkin and Oshie. 

-- The Ovechkin goal in the second minute of the third period came just after the Caps appeared to tie the game.  Replays showed clearly, though, that the puck that snuck through Chad Johnson’s pads was spinning on the goal line before it was swept out of danger by the Buffalo defense.

-- The Caps Corsi’ed the crap out of the Sabres.  They recorded 76 total shot attempts to 55 for Buffalo, and the edge was 62-40 at 5-on-5.  They almost doubled the scoring chances at 5-on-5 (35-19), and the 43 shots on goal overall was a season high (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

-- Deuces were wild for Ovechkin in this game – two goals, two points, plus-2, two shots blocked (he had ten on goal), two givewaways, and two takeaways.  Don’t look now, but he has six goals in his last six games and is only three goals behind the league leader, Jamie Benn.

-- In reaching the 20-goal mark with his two goals, Ovechkin is the 22^nd player in NHL history to record 20 or more goals each of in his first 11 seasons.

-- Marcus Johansson also had a two-point night and is now 3-4-7 in his last six games.

-- The much anticipated Zach Sill versus Nicolas Deslauriers battle did not come to pass.  Between then they recorded less than 20 minutes of ice time (Sill with 19:08 and Deslauriers with 9:09).

-- Johansson recorded a season-high seven shots on goal; Kuznetsov had six to fall one short of his season high (seven against Edmonton on October 23^rd).

In the end…

The Washington Capitals, it is said, are a deep team.  That depth was tested in this game and will be tested for at least a few more games.  Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson, Brooks Orpik, and Jay Beagle were either in the locker room or in street clothes at the end of this game.  If a team has to be strong down the middle, these are the sorts of absences that can be especially hard on a team – the number one center, the top defensive pair, and the third line anchor who is among the best faceoff men in the league.

The flip side is that it is also an opportunity.  Caps fans saw Evgeny Kuznetsov and Marcus Johansson step up in this game, and they will have to sustain that level of performance to keep the Caps humming as they move forward.  Then there was the Captain, who had ten shots on goal and a pair of goals, and the steadfast goalie, who posted his 22^nd game out of 29 in which he allowed two or fewer goals.  Others will have a chance to raise their games as well.

No team can lose four important players and not feel the effects.  There are some teams, however, that can feel those effects and yet play through them successfully.  The Caps could be one of those teams.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 36: Sabres at Capitals, December 30th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

“Listen, and understand! That Terminator is out there! It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead.”

That was Kyle Reese explaining to Sarah Connor the futility of doing battle with the Terminator in the 1984 film, “The Terminator.”  It sounds like a certain hockey team.  One that has lost just one game in regulation time in almost six weeks, compiling a 15-1-1 record along the way that includes an eight-game winning streak that they hope to extend on Wednesday night.

The Washington Capitals are a team that cannot be reasoned with at 5-on-5, cannot be bargained with when it goes on the power play, and feels neither pity, remorse, nor fear when killing penalties.  Over the first 35 games of this season, and especially the last 17 in which they compiled that 15-1-1 mark, they have not stopped, ever, until they defeated their opponents. 

They have faced 22 of the 29 other teams in the league so far this season, and they have wins over 20 of them.  Only the San Jose Sharks and Dallas Stars have defeated the Caps without tasting defeat of their own, and the Caps have rematches with both clubs on the schedule to come.

But that 15-1-1 record is something worth unpacking.  Here are the particulars:

It isn’t that the Caps are eking out victories on the good side of “coin-flip” games; they are blowing by opponents with a 1.42 average positive goal differential and 12 of their 15 wins coming in multi-goal decisions.

Washington has had 19 different skaters record points over this 17-game span, and 14 different players have goals.  There is the usual yin-yang of complementary forces that is the Alex Ovechkin/Nicklas Backstrom pair.  Ovechkin leads the team with nine goals (9-5-14, plus-6), while Backstrom leads in assists (3-14-17, plus-6). But there is the emergence of John Carlson as a force on the blue line, too.  He is 3-12-15, plus-4, over his last 16 games (he missed Monday’s contest against the Buffalo Sabres to a lower-body injury).  He certainly compares well to the man he replaced as the go-to offensive force from the blue line, Mike Green (2-11-13, minus-7, in 30 games overall this season with the Detroit Red Wings).

The Caps have also had significant contributions from players down the roster.  For example…

• Jason Chimera is 5-8-13, plus-6, over this 17-game stretch, third in total points for the club over that span.  He had the game-winning goal in a 2-1 win over the Carolina Hurricanes and chipped in a shorthanded goal in the Caps’ 7-3 win over the New York Rangers on December 20th.
• T. J. Oshie is 8-5-13, plus-6, over these 17 games, second on the club in goals scored and on a pace for his first 30-goal season.  Over this stretch he has three two-goal games (one of those games including the game-winner in a 3-2 win over the Montreal Canadiens on December 3rd), and he had a four-point night against the Tampa Bay Lightning on December 18th in a 5-3 win.
• Justin Williams is 6-4-10, plus-8, over the 15-1-1 run, and it was his goal in the last minute of the second period of the Caps’ 7-3 win over the Rangers on December 20th (part of a 2-1-3 night) that gave the Caps a two-goal cushion heading into the third period.
• Jay Beagle is 3-3-6, plus-4, and he has won 57.9 percent of his faceoffs.

The youngsters have stepped up, too…

• Evgeny Kuznetsov is 5-8-13, plus-9, over these 17 games, including four multi-point games.
• Marcus Johansson, who we might forget is less than two years older than Kuznetsov, is 4-8-12, plus-5, and has three game-winning goals.
• Dmitry Orlov has quietly gone 3-6-9, plus-8, and he has a pair of game-winning goals himself, including the only goal in a 1-0 win over Edmonton on November 23rd.  The one goal that was not a game-winner had its own charms…

• Tom Wilson is 2-5-7, plus-3, giving evidence that he is becoming more than just a player to pile up fighting majors (although he does have two in this 17-game stretch).
• Nate Schmidt is 1-4-5, plus-6, and with Brooks Orpik sidelined with a lower-body injury has picked up a larger chunk of ice time, topping 20 minutes 11 times over the 17 contests.

While the offense has been prolific and balanced, the key to the Caps’ success has been at the other end of the ice, specifically the goaltending tandem of Braden Holtby and Philipp Grubauer.

In 15 appearances over these 17 games, Holtby is 13-0-1 (one no-decision), 1.78, .944, with two shutouts.  He has not allowed more than three goals in any appearance (although he did allow three goals on 12 shots in 28:57 in a 5-3 win over Tampa Bay on December 18th), and he has allowed two or fewer goals 11 times in those 15 appearances.  He stands alone atop the leader board among goalies in almost every meaningful statistic: wins (23), goals against average (1.85), save percentage (.935); and he is tied for eighth in shutouts (2).  He has not lost a game in regulation time since November 10th, a 1-0 loss to the Detroit Red Wings.  Only once this season has he allowed more than three goals in a game, that being in a 5-2 loss to the New York Rangers on November 3rd.

Meanwhile, Philipp Grubauer shook off a shaky start (2-2-1, 2.79, .896 in his first five appearances, including a 4-1 loss to Florida as the only regulation loss in this 15-1-1 run) to win in each of his last two appearances.  The first was a 31-minute, seven-save performance in relief of Holtby in the win over Tampa Bay.  The other was a fine 31-save effort in the Caps’ 2-1 win over the Carolina Hurricanes on December 21st. 

In the end…

The first instinct one might have as a Caps fan is to compare this run with the 14-game winning streak in the middle of the 2009-2010 season in which the Caps won the Presidents Trophy for the league’s best record.  Frankly, they don’t compare.  The current run might be considered as a “once-in-decade” sort of event; the 14-game streak was more of a “once-in-franchise-history” occurrence.  The Caps outscored opponents by an average of 4.79 to 2.36 in that streak, the 2.43 average positive goal differential straining belief.  The power play in that streak was 17-for-55 (30.9 percent), while the penalty kill was a respectable, if less than impressive 53-for-65 (81.5 percent).

That said, this run has a different look to it.  On the one hand, no team is going to win 15 of every 17 games it plays over the course of a season.  On the other hand, the Caps have not had to rely on a small group of contributors to sustain it.  And that is the difference between that streak and this run, between the 2009-2010 team and this one.  This team looks better able to sustain a level of performance at both ends of the ice than that gifted 2009-2010 was able to muster, although we would certainly like to see their possession numbers improve (if the team has an Achilles' heel, this is it, given how long they have had possession issues).  It is a team that can put you down and keep you down, as evidenced by Washington's league best 20-1-0 record when scoring first.

And that is why the old saying seems to fit as the Caps prepare to host the Buffalo Sabres in the second half of their home-and-home set of games… “bet the streak.”

Capitals 5 – Sabres 2

Washington Capitals Recap: A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 2 - Sabres 0

The Washington Capitals made it eight wins in a row on Monday night in Buffalo as they defeated the Sabres, 2-0, behind a 31-save effort from goalie Braden Holtby.

A scoreless first period was remedied early in the second period on Alex Ovechkin’s 18th goal of the season at the 19 second mark. The Caps were enough of a nuisance in the Buffalo end to force Sam Reinhart into a weak clearing attempt up the right wing wall that did not reach the blue line. T.J. Oshie batted the puck back down the wall into the corner where Nicklas Backstrom fished it out. Backstrom centered the puck for Ovechkin all alone in the low slot, and Ovechkin snapped it past goalie Linus Ullmark to give the Caps the lead.

The goal held up for 12 minutes when the Caps doubled their advantage. It was another case of the Sabres’ inability to get the puck clear of their own end. Tyler Ennis’ cross ice pass found no teammate and bounced off the far wall, where Tom Wilson collected the puck and fired it at the Sabres’ net. The shot went wide and bounced hard off the end wall, the puck landing on Jay Beagle’s stick at the top of the crease. Beagle wasted no time in swatting the puck past Ullmark to make it 2-0 with 12:55 gone in the period.

That left things up to Holtby, who preserved his shutout with a spectacular save on Evander Kane in the last minute of regulation. It was Buffalo’s last gasp, the Caps skating off with the 2-0 win.

Other stuff…

-- The eight-game winning streak is the Caps’ longest since they put together an eight-game streak in the 2012-2013 season (Games 36-43, April 2-16).

-- This was the ninth game in which Braden Holtby faced more than 30 shots this season (31). In those contests he is 8-0-1, 1.43, .959.

-- Tom Wilson’s assist on Jay Beagle’s goal gives him four points in his last four games. He took a minor penalty, which gives him four minor penalties in his last four games.

-- The Caps allowed 31 shots on goal, the fourth straight game in which they allowed opponents 30 or more shots on goal. That ties a season high for consecutive games allowing 30 or more shots on goal.

-- Not an excuse for the shots (or the shot attempts, which favored Buffalo, 56-50), but a credible reason.  The Caps were missing their top defensive pair.  Brooks Orpik missed his 21st straight game on Monday night.  His partner, John Carlson, was a game-time scratch with a lower-body injury, ending his consecutive games played streak at 412.  It is the second longest consecutive games streak in franchise history, ten short of Bob Carpenter’s record of 422.

-- Carlson’s absence meant that Connor Carrick got a sweater for the first time this season and the first time for the Caps since April 13, 2014.  He did well, given his sheltered minutes (a total of 9:19 for the game).  He was plus-1 and recorded two shot attempts (one on goal).

-- Carlson’s absence, along with Orpik’s, had further ripples through the lineup.  Matt Niskanen logged 27:25 of ice time, a season high for a game settled in regulation time (he skated 27:38 in an overtime loss to the Winnipeg Jets on December 5th).  Karl Alzner skated a total of 26:23, exceeding his season high in ice time by more than two minutes (24:05 on December 12th against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

-- Jay Beagle scored a goal.  He has done so 27 times in his career.  The Caps’ record in those games is 22-0-5.

-- T.J. Oshie got back on the score sheet with an assist after consecutive games in which he was shut out.  He is 5-4-9 over his last seven games.

-- If folks are concerned about Alex Ovechkin’s goal scoring, don’t be.  His 18th goal of the season lifted him into a tied for fifth place in the league, and he has played in fewer games (34) than any of the four players ahead of him.  Last season, when he finished with 53 goals, he had only 16 goals in his first 34 games played.

In the end…

Some games you just have to grind out.  This was one of them.  Call it a “system” win if you want, or all of the players “pulling on the rope,” or “no passengers,” or whatever cliché you wish to use.  The team stepped up as a group to fill in the holes left with the top defensive pair out, they got timely goals from an expected source and a good luck charm of sorts, and their insanely hot goalie took care of the rest.  You don’t want to do it like that all the time, but it is the sort of learning experience in toughing out games that can pay dividends down the road when results are harder to come by.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 35: Capitals at Sabres, December 28th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take to the road on Monday night for the first half of a home-and-home series against the Buffalo Sabres, looking to extend their current run of good fortune.  Their seven-game winning streak stands as the longest current streak in the league at the moment.

The Caps have been a remarkably stingy club during this seven-game winning streak, allowing only 11 goals scored by opponents while scoring 25 of their own.  It has enabled the Caps to jump to second in the league in scoring offense (3.12 goals per game) while holding down the top spot in goals per game allowed (2.12).

Meanwhile, the Sabre enter the home-and-home series as a team in a rebuilding mode, but one with dangerous pieces at both ends of the ice.  They took a six-game losing streak into the Thanksgiving holiday, but since then, Buffalo is 7-4-2.  During that span of games they outscored opponents by a 39-30 margin, and five of their seven wins have come by margins of three goals.

For a player who has had a spotlight shined upon him as the second overall draft pick last June, Jack Eichel has handled the attention quite well.  Even more so since the number one overall pick, Connor McDavid by the Edmonton Oilers, went down to injury in early November.  Eichel is fourth among rookies in total points (20) and is second among that group in goals scored (11).  He is 4-3-7 in the Sabres’ 7-4-2 run since Thanksgiving, going 2-2-4 in his last contest, a 6-3 win in Boston over the Bruins on Saturday.  He comes into this game looking to extend his points streak to four games, which would be a personal best in his rookie season.  This will be his first career appearance against the Capitals.

Lost in the Eichel-mania is the fact that Ryan O’Reilly is putting together a fine season.  O’Reilly, who was trade to the Sabres from the Colorado Avalanche last June for Nikita Zadorov, Mikhail Grigorenko,a nd J.T. Compher, leads the team in goals (14) and total points (32), and he is well on his way to setting career bests in both.  His 33-goal pace would eclipse his 28 goals in the 2013-2014 season, and his 75-point pace would top his 64 points in that same 2013-2014 season.  O’Reilly is 7-8-15 in the 13 games since Thanksgiving, and he has four multi-point games in that span.  In seven career games against Washington, he is 0-1-1, even.

It has taken more than a third of the season, but the goaltending situation for the Sabres might be settling out at last.  Chad Johnson was a fifth-round draft pick of the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 2006 entry draft, then bounced around the AHL and various NHL organizations, once the property of the Penguins, the New York Rangers, and the Phoenix Coyotes before he was signed as a free agent by the Boston Bruins in July 2013.  As a backup for the Bruins in 2013-2014 he appeared in 27 games, going 17-4-3, 2.10, .925, with two shutouts.  That season got the attention of the New York Islanders, who signed Johnson away from the Bruins on a two-year contract.  He could not repeat his performance of the previous season, going 8-8-1, 3.08, .889 before being traded to the Sabres for goalie Michal Neuvirth.  Johnson has largely split time with Linus Ullmark in goal this season, but he got the call in each of the Sabres last three contests, going 2-0-1, posting a 44-save shutout of the Anaheim Ducks along the way, setting a club record for saves in a shutout.  He is 1-1-1, 2.61, .907 in three career appearances against the Capitals.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Buffalo had one of the top power play squads in the league with a 23.4 percent success rate through their first 30 games.  However, they come into this game without a power play goal in their last five contests, tying their longest streak of games without a power play tally this season.  The Sabres are 0-for-14 over those five games.

2.  The Sabres have a lot of young talent at forward, but on the back line Rasmus Ristolainen is having a good season as well.  The 21-year old, third-year defenseman is tied for eighth in the league in points among defensemen (7-17-24).  He has 11 of those points in 13 games since Thanksgiving (3-8-11).

3.  The Sabres struggle with their early-game performance.  Only the Philadelphia Flyers have taken a lead into the first intermission fewer times (3) than the Sabres (6). And only four teams have scored the first goal of a game fewer times than Buffalo (14): the Ottawa Senators (13), the New Jersey Devils (13), the Winnipeg Jets (12), and the Toronto Maple Leafs (11).

4.  The Sabres’ problems in the early parts of games is attributable to their offense.  No team has fewer first period goals scored than the Sabres (14), and their first period goal differential of minus-14 is second worst in the league (Philadelphia: minus-17).

5.  Buffalo is “Team Score Effect” when it comes to possession.  They are not awful overall, with a 48.7 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 that ranks 20^th in the league.  However, in close score situations that number deteriorates to 46.9 percent, which is 27^th in the league (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  If defense wins championships, the Caps are following the right path.  In their seven-game winning streak they have allowed only 11 goals, holding opponents to a single goal five times.

2.  At the other end of the ice, only the San Jose Sharks have scored five or more goals in a game more times (9) than the Caps (8).

3.  It might surprise you to know that in franchise history the Caps have lost more games in regulation to the Sabres among teams not in the Caps’ division than they have to any other team (81).  In fact, the Caps’ franchise record against Buffalo is awful: 48-81-15-5.

4.  Evgeny Kuznetsov’s next goal will set a career best.  He currently has 11 goals, including the only two overtime goals scored by the Caps so far this season.

5.  Washington has had possession issues for quite some time now, but they seem especially pronounced early in games.  The Caps rank 18^th in Corsi-for percentage overall in the first periods of games (48.6 percent; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Buffalo: Evander Kane

Evander Kane’s first season in Buffalo has been challenging.  He missed ten games earlier this season to a knee injury, and even in those early games in which he did appear he was not particularly effective.  In his first 13 games of the season, Kane was 2-2-4, minus-5.  He has been more effective lately, though, going 6-3-9, plus-1, over his last 12 games, including points in his last three contests coming into Monday night’s game against the Caps.  Just when he seemed to be sorting things out on the ice, though, he now faces off-ice issues.  He has been something of a Cap-killer in his career, going 10-5-15, minus-5, in 21 career games against Washington.

Washington: Marcus Johansson

Anyone have Marcus Johansson as the team leader in game-winning goals more than a third of the way through the season?  We didn’t either.  Johansson has been quietly putting together a solid season, one of seven Caps with 20 or more points (7-13-20).  He is on a pace to finish with a career best in points for a season (49; current: 47) and power play goals (7; current: 3).  And then there are those team-leading four game-winning goals, already a career best.  His “shoot first” approach has carried over from last year (1.68 shots per game) to this one (1.70 shots per game, another career-best pace).  Johansson is 3-4-7, minus-1, in 16 career games against Buffalo.

In the end…

You could call this a “trap week” for the Capitals.  Coming in on a seven-game winning streak and 14-1-1 in their last 16 games, having beaten their closest Eastern Conference pursuers last week, and the new calendar year approaching, this week has the potential to be a pothole on the smooth road the Caps have been on over the past month.  Two games against the Sabres, a New Year’s Eve date with the Carolina Hurricanes, and a Saturday contest with the Columbus Blue Jackets might look like “W’s” on paper, but one hopes the “W” doesn’t stand for “whoops” by week’s end.  The Caps have done a good job of tending to business, whether at home (14-3-1, best record in the league) or on the road (12-3-1, third best record in the league).  This week will test their focus.

Capitals 4 – Sabres 1