The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 61: Capitals at Blackhawks, February 28th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals kick off what might be their most difficult week of the regular season when they visit the Chicago Blackhawks at United Center on Sunday afternoon in a nationally televised game.  It will be the first of five games the Caps will play in seven days in their busiest week of the season.

Compounding the matter for the Caps is that they, and the other 29 teams in the league, are in the final hours before the trading deadline, when rosters become a bit more uncertain.  The Caps have made just one trade as of this writing, adding defenseman Mike Weber from the Buffalo Sabres for a 2017 third round draft pick.  They also waived long-tenured forward Brooks Laich in what appears to be a salary-cap management move to provide some flexibility as the trading deadline nears.

Meanwhile, the defending Stanley Cup champions have been busy in advance of the deadline. They traded forward Marko Dano and two draft picks to the Winnipeg Jets for forwards Andrew Ladd and Matt Fraser, and defenseman Jay Harrison.  They also sent forward Phillip Danault and a second round draft pick in 2018 to the Montreal Canadiens for forwards Tomas Fleischmann and Dale Weise.  And, they traded defenseman Rob Scuderi to the Los Angeles Kings for defenseman Christian Ehrhoff.

Ladd is clearly the big-ticket item among the deals so far for the Blackhawks.  Ladd is neither new to the trading deadline, nor to the Blackhawks.  He was shipped to the Blackhawks by the Carolina Hurricanes for Tuomo Ruutu at the 2008 trading deadline.  In two-plus seasons with the Blackhawks, Ladd recorded 37 goals and 99 points in 184 games.  In his last season in Chicago – in 2009-2010 – he helped the Blackhawks win their first Stanley Cup since 1961.  Now, after five-plus seasons with the Atlanta Thrashers/Winnipeg Jets, he returns to Chicago.  He arrives on a bit of a hot streak with goals in each of his last three games, four in all.  His 17 goals in 59 games to date (0.29 goals/game) is right in line with his career goal scoring pace (0.27 goals/game).  Ladd is 14-18-32, plus-13, in 41 career games against the Capitals.

Twelve years ago on Saturday, the Capitals traded Robert Lang to the Detroit Red Wings for a 2004 first round draft pick (that would become Mike Green), a 2004 fourth round draft pick, and a prospect forward by the name of Tomas Fleischmann, a second round pick of the Wings in 2002.  Fleischmann went on to play 283 games over six seasons for the Caps before he was traded in November 2010 to the Colorado Avalanche for defenseman Scott Hannan.  From Colorado, Fleischmann went to Florida, then Anaheim, and this season to Montreal before arriving in Chicago, his sixth NHL club.  He had modest success with the Canadiens this season, recording ten goals and 20 points in 57 games.  He has not been especially productive lately, though, having just two goals and an assist in his last 23 games.  Fleischmann is 5-4-9, minus-4, in 19 career games against Washington.

One thing that does not seem to change for the Blackhawks is Corey Crawford in goal.  There is a temptation to think of Crawford as a beneficiary of a talented team in front of him.  He certainly has that, but he has not exactly been a passenger on the Stanley Cup journey’s either.  Over the last four seasons, including this one, Crawford is one of six goaltenders to appear in at least 100 games, post a save percentage of at least .920, and record a goals against average of 2.25 or lower.  That is a group that includes Tuukka Rask, Henrik Lundqvist, Cory Schneider, Carey Price, and Brian Elliott.  Not a bad group.  He has not been very effective lately, though.  Since shutting out the St. Louis Blues on 25 shots in a 2-0 win on January 24^th, Crawford is 4-5-1, 3.10, .907 in ten appearances. In six career appearances against the Capitals, Crawford is 2-3-1, 3.52, .883.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  The Blackhawks are in a bit of a late-winter funk.  Over their last seven games they are 2-4-1, outscored by opponents by a 23-18 margin. 

2.  Half of the 16 goals scored by Chicago over their last five games have come on the power play.  Seven of them came over a pair of games.  They went 4-for-7 in a 7-2 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs on February 15^th, and they went 3-for-4 against the New York Rangers in a 5-3 win on February 17^th.  They are 8-for-16 (50.0 percent) over their last five games.

3.  Good as the power play has been lately, the penalty kill has been ineffective.  The Blackhawks killed all six shorthanded situations they faced against the Dallas Stars on February 6^th, but in seven games since, they are 11-for-19 (57.9 percent).

4.  Patrick Kane has not gone consecutive games without a point since he was blanked on December 22^nd and 27^th.  Since then he is 14-20-34 in 26 games.  Just to note, Kane was held without a point in his last game, a 3-1 loss to the Nashville Predators.

5.  Chicago has been a good, but not especially impressive possession team.  They rank 13^th in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall (50.9 percent) and 12^th in score-adjusted Corsi (51.4 percent).  Their rankings at home are hardly different in overall Corsi-for overall (13^th/52.1 percent), but their score-adjusted Corsi-for ranks eighth on home ice (52.2 percent; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  The Caps have not been a dominant power play team lately, but they seem to be shaking off the slump they had coming out of the All-Star Game break.  Over their last nine games they have power play goals in six of them and are 6-for-32 overall (18.8 percent).

2.  The Caps have played to five consecutive one-goal decisions (4-1-0), their longest streak of one-goal decisions this season.  Ten of the Caps’ last 12 games were settled by one goal, and the other two decisions – both of them two-goal victories – featured empty net goals for the final margin.  The Caps are 8-2-0 in those ten one-goal decisions.

3.  For a team with as gaudy a record as the Caps, it is a bit surprising that only ten teams have taken a lead into the first intermission fewer times.  The Caps have won all 18 instances in which they led after one period, the only team to win all of their games when leading after 20 minutes.

4.  There is no team in the league with a wider spread between first period and third period goals scored than the Caps.  Washington has scored just 45 goals in the first periods of games this season (tied with Arizona for 17^th in the league), 80 goals in the third period (first) for a plus-35 goal spread from first to last period.  Buffalo is second with a plus-26.

5.  There is one area that suggests the Caps need to spend some time buttoning things up.  In six of their last nine road games they have allowed more high-quality scoring chances than they have had.  They are minus-23 in high-quality scoring chances in those nine games overall (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless Players to Ponder

Chicago: Artemi Panarin

Artemi Panarin has made it a rout in the rookie scoring race.  He has a three-goal lead on Detroit’s Dylan Larkin (22 to 19), a ten-assist lead on Arizona’s Max Domi (35 to 25), and a 15-point lead on Domi (57 to 42).  He is tied for fourth among rookies in power play goals (5) and tied for second in power play points (15), no small achievement on a veteran team such as Chicago.  And, if anyone was thinking he might hit a rookie “wall” with respect to his performance over a long season, he has not yet reached that wall.  He is 6-6-12 in his last ten games, including a hat trick in the 5-3 win over the Rangers on February 17^th.  Panarin has an assist in his only appearance against the Caps.

Washington: Dmitry Orlov

Dmitry Orlov is thought of as something of a high-risk (in his own end), high reward (in the offensive zone) player.  He has skill, but perhaps not the seasoning to use those skills as judiciously as a more veteran player might, resulting in taking chances that can be taken advantage of by opponents.  Nevertheless, among 181 league defensemen playing at least 500 5-on-5 minutes this season, Orlov ranks tenth overall in Corsi-for/relative (plus-5.47 percent, as per war-on-ice.com).  As a third-pair defenseman he might not get a lot of exposure to opponents with top-end offensive statistics, but it is a respectable number nonetheless.  With John Carlson on injured reserve, maintaining and improving on that edge is going to be an important ingredient to the Caps’ success as they approach the postseason.  He has two assists and is a plus-2 in three career games against Chicago.

In the end…

The theme of this game is that it could be a preview of a Stanley Cup final.  The top road team in the league (Washington at 21-6-2) will do battle with the second-best home team (Chicago at 22-8-2).  Joel Quenneville, with 1,438 regular season games coached an 792 wins, will face Barry Trotz, with 1,338 games coached an 647 wins.  The league’s leading goal scorer (Alex Ovechkin with 40) will face the league-leading overall scorer (Patrick Kane with 84 points).  What the Caps bring to this game is recent success against the Blackhawks.  They have won the last four contests between the teams, outscoring the Blackhawks 14-5 in the process, and the Caps have wins in seven of their last nine games against Chicago.  Neither team can be said to be at the top of their game at the moment, but this should be a very entertaining affair, one that is not merely hyped as a possible Stanley Cup final preview, but a legitimate one.

Capitals 4 – Blackhawks 3

Washington Capitals Recap: A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 3 - Wild 2

The Washington Capitals took a while on Friday night, but they finally grabbed a lead with just over five minutes in regulation and held on for a 3-2 win over the Minnesota Wild at Verizon Center.

The game-winner came on a slippery individual effort by defenseman Dmitry Orlov.  Taking a cross-ice pass from Andre Burakovsky as he was entering the offensive zone, Orlov was challenged by Nino Niederreiter.  Orlov slid the puck through his own legs to his backhand, worked his way around Niederreiter, and flicked a shot that hit the stick of Jared Spurgeon and squeaked between goalie Darcy Kuemper’s left pad and the post for what would be the game-winning goal.

Until that moment, it looked like any number of recent nights for the Caps.  They allowed the game’s first goal on a power play in the last minute of the first period when Mikko Koivu wristed a shot from the top of the right wing circle that looked as if it got just a bit of defenseman Karl Alzner’s leg as it was going through, altering its path just enough to squirt between goalie Braden Holtby’s pads at the 19:18 mark.

The Caps tied the game in the first minute of the second period with the help of some luck.  From below the goal line to the right of Kuemper, Nicklas Backstrom sent a pass into the middle looking for Alex Ovechkin skating through the low slot.  The pass came all the way through, though, and it was Brooks Orpik who flagged it down at the top of the right wing circle.  Orpik tokk a step up and snapped a shot that was going wide to Kuemper’s left.  However, the puck struck the shaft of the stick of Marco Scandella and was redirected behind Kuemper to make it 1-1 just 49 seconds into the period.

The tie did not last five minutes.  Niederreiter put the Wild back in front when the Caps got caught too deep in the Wild zone.  With all three Caps forwards below the Minnesota goal line, Spurgeon poked the puck up the boards to Jason Pominville.  When Nate Schmidt pinched in down the boards, Pominville slid the puck into the middle where Ryan Suter was starting up ice.  Suter moved the puck out to Niederreiter at the red line.  With Taylor Chorney the last man back and in pursuit of him, Niederretier protected the puck with his body, faked going across the slot, then shot back across his body over Holtby’s glove to make it 2-1 at the 5:05 mark.

Trailing going into the third period, the Caps got their only power play of the game when Kuemper was whistled for delay of game, dislodging the net.  The Caps made good on the opportunity using a tried and true formula.  Nicklas Backstrom patiently looked over the situation from the right wing wall and slid the puck out to Matt Niskanen at the top of the zone.  Niskanen, playing on the top power play unit because John Carlson was out with an injury, laid the puck off to Ovechkin in the left wing circle.  His one-timer found its way between Kuepmer’s body and his blocker, and the Caps were tied, 2-2, 4:35 into the period.

All that remained was for Orlov to display his puck-handling and shooting skills for the game-winner, and the Caps had their 45^th win of the season, 3-2.

Other stuff…

-- If you’re betting on scores with the Caps, take “3-2.”  This was the 11^th time this season that the Caps won a game by that margin, tops in the league for that particular score.

-- The 45^th win for the Caps in Game 60 ties last year’s win total.  The 45 wins ties this club with last year’s team and the 1991-1992 club for the seventh-highest win total in franchise history.

-- Ovechkin’s goal gave him 40 on the season.  He is one of 10 players in NHL history to record eight or more 40-goal seasons and one of seven players to record that many in his first 11 seasons.  Only Wayne Gretzky (11 times), Mike Bossy (9), and Mario Lemieux (9) did it more times in their first 11 seasons.

-- Ovechkin extended his points streak to five games (5-4-9), four of those games being multi-point games.  He has not gone consecutive games without a goal in more than a month (January 14 and 16 against Vancouver and Buffalo, respectively).  Since December 18^th, when he recorded two goals against Tampa Bay, Ovechkin has 26 goals in 29 games.

-- This was the seventh straight game in which the Caps allowed the game’s first goal.  They won for the 17^th time this season in 31 decisions when giving up that first goal.  Last season they won just eight times in 39 decisions when allowing the first goal.

-- Nicklas Backstrom ended a three-game streak without a point with a pair of assists.  It was his first multi-point game since he had three assists in the 4-3 win over Minnesota on February 11^th and his 15^th multi-point game of the season, tied for eighth-most in the league.

-- Brooks Orpik’s goal set a career best for goals in a season (3).  He also has nine points in 20 games this season, second among Caps defensemen in points per game (0.45) to John Carlson (0.66).  He also had eight hits and five blocked shots.  He had a rich and full (and sore) evening.

-- Odd Backstrom fact.  He did not record a shot attempt in this game.  It was the 12^th time this season that he did not record a shot on goal, and in those games he has a total of 11 assists.  There are many ways to contribute.

-- Brooks Laich played just one shift in the third period.  His total ice time of 6:25 was his lowest of the season.

-- Minnesota won the shot attempt contest at 5-on-5, 57-51, but the second period was telling.  After the Wild dominated the first period in shot attempts at evens, 19-8, the Caps and Wild split 46 attempts down the middle in the second.  The volume of attempts in the middle period, coupled with the Wild playing the previous night in Philadelphia, might have contributed to their wearing down in the third when the Caps scored twice and had a 20-15 edge in 5-on-5 attempts  (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

In the end…

Five wins in six games, ten wins in 12, both of the losses of the one-goal variety.  Best record in the league by a dozen points, top scoring offense, top power play, top goal differential.   First, top, best.  Then why do these recent wins look so…bleh?   Falling behind early in games, taking early penalties (eight first period penalties over their last three games, including three tonight), it has been a struggle for the Caps to get going in games lately.  This game was was no exception.  It is one thing to do it and come back against a team outside of the playoff mix that played the previous night.  It will be another on Sunday when the Caps head to Chicago for a national-telecast game against the Blackhawks, a team that when they jump on sluggish teams early, generally stay on top of them. 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 60: Wild at Capitals, February 26th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals will be looking to rebound from Wednesday night’s loss to the Montreal Canadiens when they host the Minnesota Wild at Verizon Center on Friday night in the last game of the club’s four-game home stand.

The Caps are in the position for the 11th time this season of trying to avoid consecutive losses in regulation time.  The Caps are 9-0-1 in the first ten instances (twice they have lost consecutive games, one of the losses coming in extra time in each instance).

Meanwhile, the Wild will be coming to Washington hot off their Thursday night game in Philadelphia against the Flyers.  They head to Philadelphia winners of four of their last five games, the loss coming on Tuesday against the New York Islanders.  The loss ended a four-game winning streak to open the tenure of new coach John Torchetti, who replaced Mike Yeo, relieved of his duties by the club on February 13th.

Minnesota certainly “torched” opponents in their most recent five games under Torchetti.  They scored five or more goals in each of the four wins to open his tenure and overall have outscored opponents 22-12.  They had power play goals in each of the four wins, going 5-for-21 overall (23.8 percent), while their penalty kill went 11-for-16 (68.8 percent).

There are 14 different Wild skaters recording at least one goal in their 4-1-0 run.  Charlie Coyle is tied for the lead with three.  Coyle has been quite something else this season for the Wild, obliterating his career high in goals (12 in 2013-2014) with 18 so far this season, eight of them in his last 14 games and doing it on just 28 shots on goal (28.6 percent shooting).  If there is an odd part about his goal scoring, none of his ten most recent goals have been game-winners.  Coyle is 2-1-3, minus-4, in five career games against the Caps, one of those two goals coming in a 4-3 loss to the Caps on February 11th.

Twenty different Wild skaters have points over their last five games, none more than the unlikely Erik Haula, who has more than a third of his total point production for the season (20) in these last five games (2-5-7).  He, too, has easily surpassed his career high in point (15) set in his rookie year in 2013-2014.  Where to watch for him will be when the Caps are on the power play.  Two of his seven goals this season have been scored while shorthanded with a shorthanded assist thrown in.  He has multi-point games in three of his last five games and four in his last eight contests.  Haula has just one career appearance against Washington without a point.

It is unclear who will get the nod in goal for the Wild against the Caps, given that they will be playing the second of back-to-back games.  Devan Dubnyk is expected to start against Philadelphia on Thursday.  If Dubnyk does get that assignment and is given the night off in Washington, Darcy Kuemper is not a big drop off in terms of efficiency.  His 2.26 goals against average and .920 save percentage are both better than Dubnyk’s (2.38/.918), and he has two shutouts in his 16 appearances to date.  He has just three losses in regulation this season, and they were not flukes.  He had a goals against average of 3.05, allowing nine goals on just 68 total shots (.868 save percentage).  The four-year veteran has never faced the Capitals.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Minnesota has nine games all season in which they scored five or more goals.  Four of them have come in their last five contests.

2.  The Wild are an odd team in one respect.  Fourteen times this season they held opponents to fewer than 25 shots on goal, and their record is 5-6-3 in those games.  Not that they are any better when allowing high shot volumes.  Minnesota is 1-3-4 when allowing more than 35 shots on goal.

3.  The Wild are the third-best faceoff team in the league (51.7 percent). However, their special teams work is not up to that level – 56.5 percent on the power play (11th in the league) and 46.2 percent when shorthanded (11th).

4.  The Wild rank 27th overall in penalty killing on the road (75.5 percent).  They are just 16-for-24 (66.7 percent) in their last seven road games through Wednesday).

5.  Minnesota ranks 21st overall in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (48.1 percent), 23rd in road games (46.2 percent).  They rank 25th in the third periods of games this season (47.5 percent; numbers from war-on-ice.com)

1. In 14 games following losses this season (regulation or extra time), the Caps have a record of 12-1-1 and have outscored opponents by a 48-28 margin.

2.  In those 14 games following losses, the Caps power play is 12-for-56 (21.4 percent), while the penalty kill is 29-for-38 (76.3 percent).

3.  The Caps could not erase a three-goal deficit against the Canadiens on Wednesday, but they still have three more wins (16) when allowing the first goal of a game than the next best team (Los Angeles: 13).  The noteworthy (and perhaps disturbing) thing about that is the fact that the Caps have allowed the first goal more times (30) than they have scored the first goal (29).  Only 11 teams have allowed the game’s first goal more times than the Caps, and only two of them – the New York Rangers and Pittsburgh Penguins – are currently in the playoff mix.

4.  Washington allowed the Canadiens a power play goal in their loss on Wednesday, but the Caps have still allowed the fifth-fewest power play goals on home ice (12, tied with four other teams).

5.  First periods on home ice have been a problem for the Caps in one important respect.  The have allowed the third highest number of shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (58.9).  Only Philadelphia and Colorado have allowed more (both at 60.4; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Minnesota: Jason Pominville

Jason Pominville is tied for the team lead in goals over Minnesota’s last five games (three).   For him, the change in head coaches has been, at least coincidentally, a benefit.  Before John Torchetti took over, Pominville had one goal in his previous 22 games.  Previous head coach Mike Yeo saw the problem as a confidence issue and thought he was coming out of his slump, but if he is in fact going to put that drought behind him, another coach will benefit.  One has to wonder, though.  After a 30-goal season for the Wild in 2013-2014, he has just 27 goals in his last 142 games.  Pominville is 11-12-23, plus-4, in 35 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin has opened some space between himself and his closest pursuer for the Maurice Richard Trophy as the league’s top goal scorer, 39 goals to 35 for Chicago’s Patrick Kane.  He is on a pace to finish the season with 55 goals, and folks might not be aware of just what an accomplishment hitting 55 goals would be.  Only four players in league history have passed their 30th birthday and hit or surpassed the 55-goal mark – Marcel Dionne (56 goals at age 31 in 1982-2983), Bobby Hull (58 goals at age 30 in 1968-1969), Mario Lemieux (69 goals at age 30 in 1995-1996), and Phil Esposito, who did it three times (55 goals at age 30 in 1972-1973, 68 goals the following year, and 61 goals in the season after that).  What is perhaps more noteworthy, given the attachment some observers had to his plus-minus figure a couple of years ago, his current plus-23 is better than that recorded in five full seasons of the players noted.  None of those five finished with as high as a plus-20.  Only Phil Esposito (plus-51 in his 1973-1974 season) finished higher than where Ovechkin currently resides.  He is 9-3-12, plus-3, in nine career games against the Wild.

In the end…

The Caps hit the 60-game mark with a chance to record their fourth ten-game split out of six with eight wins.  In that respect the Caps have been a very consistent team.  What seems to have infiltrated their game lately is almost a sense of boredom, reflected early on in games when they just cannot seem to get started.  They have allowed the first goal in each of their last six games, and they have just one first period goal in that span.  That the Caps would go 4-2-0 in those games, with both of their losses by a single goal, is either very surprising (and perhaps something vulnerable to a correction in terms of wins and losses), or they are just so extraordinarily skilled that it does not matter much.  We would rather they just not test this proposition and get on with tending to business earlier in games.

Capitals 4 – Wild 2

Washington Capitals Recap: A NO-Point Night: Canadiens 4 - Capitals 3

The Washington Capitals saw their four-game winning streak come to an end on Wednesday night when they dropped a 4-3 decision to the Montreal Canadiens at Verizon Center. The loss ended the Caps’ home winning streak at five games.

Montreal put the Caps in an early hole with a pair of first period goals. Alex Galchenyuk struck for the Canadiens when he put back a rebound of a Dale Weise shot at the 9:09 mark. Brendan Gallagher made it 2-0 late in the period on a power play, converting another rebound, this time of an Andrei Markov shot that Max Pacioretty tipped on its way through, Gallagher sweeping the loose puck around the left pad of goalie Braden Holtby.

The Caps fell further into the hole dug for them by the Canadiens when former Cap Tomas Fleischmann snapped a rebound past Holtby from the left wing faceoff circle. The goal ended Holtby’s evening in favor of Philipp Grubauer.

Washington got on the board less than four minutes after the Fleischmann goal when Jason Chimera jumped on a loose puck at the post to goalie Mike Condon’s left and chipped a backhand over his glove into the net at the 5:32 mark.

Any thoughts of a comeback were put on hold when Alex Galchenyuk scored his second of the night, finishing a 2-on-1 break by converting a pass from Lars Eller past Grubauer’s right pad 12:24 into the period.

The Caps added a goal in the third period when Dmitry Orlov took a wide swing from the neutral zone down the left wing and from a severe angle ripped a shot over Condon’s left shoulder and into the top of the net on the far side to make it 4-2 at the 12:24 mark.

Andre Burakovsky made things interesting late when he took a pass from Stan Galiev and from the top of the circles snapped a shot between Condon’s pads to make it 4-3 with 2:53 left. That would be as close as the Caps would get, though, as a Nicklas Backstrom drive from between the circles was gloved down by Condon with three seconds left to seal the 4-3 win for the Canadiens.

Other stuff…

-- When Braden Holtby was relieved by Philipp Grubauer in the second period, it marked the fourth time in his last 14 appearances that he did not finish a game he started.  Three of those instances are the only losses in regulation on his record over his last 37 appearances (edit...oops, this loss was pinned on Grubauer for allowing the fourth goal, but still).

-- Six shot attempts would be a pretty good night for most players, but for Alex Ovechkin that represents a rather quiet night.  His two shots on goal was just the tenth time in 57 games he was held to two or fewer shots.

-- Brooks Orpik appeared in his 800th career game, and he had two assists. You could almost see this coming.  It’s all about the “hundreds.”  This season alone, Ovechkin scored two goals in his 800th career game (including his 500th career goal), and T.J. Oshie scored a goal in his 500th career game.  When Brooks Laich appeared in his 500th game back in 2011, he scored a goal.  A goal for Orpik might have been a bridge too far, but he had his first two-assist game of the season.

-- The power play continues to struggle.  The 0-for-3 in this game made it 5-for-48 (10.4 percent) since Winter Storm Jonas ripped through Washington in late January.  At least they spread the shots around.  Five different players had one apiece.

-- Tom Wilson had a fairly bizarre night.  He took two penalties in the first period of the “not the brightest thing he’s done this month” sort, and for his impertinence was provided a staple gun to staple his behind to the bench in the second period.  He had one 55 second shorthanded shift.  He took a regular turn in the third period with five shifts.

-- Ovechkin has turned into “Mr. Hockey Helper.”  He had an assist, making three straight games he’s provided apples to teammates.  It marked almost precisely a year since the last instance in which he had three consecutive regular season games with assists.  In Games 57-59 last season (February 15-19) he had assists in each game. 

-- Stan Galiev had a career high four shots on goal and an assist on Burakovsky’s goal.

-- When the Caps allowed a power play goal to the Canadiens late in the first period, it broke a four-game streak not allowing one.

-- Karl Alzner skated just 16:42 in ice time, his lowest amount of ice time this season  and the lowest since he had 14:21 in ice time in a 4-3 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins last February 25th.

-- Wouldn’t you know it?  The Caps win the Corsi battle (54-49 in shot attempts at 5-on-5) and lose the game.  It wasn’t even a case of making a mad rush when they fell behind by three goals.  The splits by period were 18-18 in the first, 17-13 Caps in the second, and 19-18 Caps in the third.

In the end…

This is not a happy tune the Caps are whistling lately.  Fall behind early, comeback late.  It's like the spring and autumn time changes, but different.  This made six straight games in which the Caps allowed the first goal.  Yes, they have the league’s best record when allowing the first goal, but it’s not like it is actually a good record (16-10-4).  It is a disturbing trend in a larger context, that the Caps have been a rather unimpressive team in the first periods of games this season (a plus-2 goal differential after last night, 8-6-2 when trailing after one period).  If there is something that needs attention, this is it.  And with the Minnesota Wild coming to town on Friday, a top-ten team in first period goals scored this season, they should be paying attention.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 59: Canadiens at Capitals, February 24th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It is four wins and counting for the Washington Capitals, who will seek to extend their winning streak to five games when they host the Montreal Canadiens at Verizon Center on Wednesday night.  The Caps, already the hottest team in the league this season, currently have the best ten-game record in the league at 9-1-0 in their last ten contests.  Over those ten games they outscored their opponents, 33-24, although their special teams – specifically the power play – could use some work.  Over those same ten games the Caps are 5-for-35 (14.3 percent) with a man advantage, while the penalty killers are 32-for-36 (88.9 percent).

Meanwhile, the Canadiens are staring a spring without a playoff berth in the face.  What started as a very promising season, winning their first nine games (eight of them by multi-goal margins), was dealt a mortal blow when goalie Carey Price, the defending Vezina Trophy winner, suffered what would become what could be a season-ending knee injury.  Since that nine-game winning streak to open the season, the Habs are 19-27-5 and are in 13th place in the Eastern Conference, eight points out of a playoff spot and the team holding that last playoff spot having two games in hand on the Canadiens.

Montreal’s most recent misfortune is going 1-3-1 over their last five games after a three-game winning streak that provided a glimmer of hope that the season could be saved.  And, those five games have been largely ugly.  They gave up six goals to both Buffalo and Arizona in losses, and they have not scored more than two goals in any of their last four games.  Their power play has been efficient (3-for-12/25.0 percent) but lacked a volume of opportunities.  Their penalty kill gave everything they earned on the power play back (10-for-13/76.9 percent), perhaps saved by having few shorthanded situations to kill off.

The Canadiens have only 11 goals in their last five games, four players with two – Alex Galchenyuk, Sven Andrighetto, Brendan Gallagher, and Dale Weise.  Conspicuous by their absence are P.K. Subban (the Canadiens’ leading point producer) and Max Pacioretty (team leader in goals).  Subban has three points (all assists) in his last five games, in the midst of which he was subject to a post-game dressing down from head coach Michel Therrien for losing an edge and the puck to Colorado’s Jarome Iginla, who took it the other way for the game winning goal late in a 3-2 loss.  It was an odd thing to do on Therrien’s part, given that Subban had points in 17 of his previous 20 games (4-16-20).  Just one more bit of drama in a difficult season.  He is 1-4-5, minus-5, in 18 career games against the Caps.

As for Pacioretty, who was looking the wrong way when Iginla got behind him for that game-winning goal, he has just two goals in his last 14 games (including one in this recent five-game slide) and is a ghastly minus-14 over those 14 games.  He has just two “plus” games on the ledger in that span.  His 21 goals in 60 games is well off the pace he set in the previous two seasons when he recorded at total of 76 goals.  It is not a lost season for Pacioretty as much as one that has gone sideways on him.  He is 2-7-9, minus-2, in 22 career games against Washington.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Whoever scores first, it hardly seems to matter for the Canadiens, given how reliable scoring first is as a predictor of wins in the NHL.  Montreal has seven losses in regulation when scoring first; only six teams have more (a fact made worse by the knowledge that Montreal had that nine-game winning streak to start the year).  Only four teams have fewer wins when opponents score first than the four the Canadiens have, and they have the league’s sixth-worst winning percentage when allowing the first goal.

2.  Montreal has to score to win these days.  They are 16-1-0 when scoring more than three goals, but if they score fewer than three they are 6-24-3, three of those wins resulting in a third goal for scoring purposes in a shootout.  There aren’t many 2-1 wins in their results table.

3.  Speaking of shootouts, Montreal’s record in the Gimmick makes their record look better than it is.  They are 5-2 in the freestyle competition, all of the instances coming after Price’s injury.  Otherwise they are 14-27-3.

4.  The Canadiens have a respectable goal differential in the first period of games this season (plus-1) and the second period (plus-6).  However, their goal differential in the third period and overtime (minus-12) has sunk them.

5.  For all their troubles, Montreal is a good possession team.  They rank sixth in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall (52.7 percent) and are ranked third in away games (52.3 percent).

1.  “Four” is a magic number for the Caps.  They have not lost a game in regulation time when scoring the “pizza” goal (a reference to a local pizza promotion): 24-0-1, their only loss coming in a trick shot competition.  In fact, three goals is a pretty good measure of the Caps’ chances.  In games where they score three or more goals in regulation and overtime they are 33-1-2.

2.  If the Caps score a power play goal, it will be a good sign. They are 26-1-2 when scoring on the man advantage.  It is probably a better signal that preventing opponents’ power play goals.  Washington is 26-5-1 when shutting out opponents on their power play.

3.  Only one team has spent more time shorthanded in the first period this season than the Caps (123:58).  The Philadelphia Flyers have spent 128:24 shorthanded in the first periods of games.  At the other end, only three teams have spent less time killing penalties in the third period than the Caps (72:14) – the Minnesota Wild (71:52), the Calgary Flames (70:45), and the Carolina Hurricanes (64:03).

4.  The Caps’ 24 multi-goal wins are as many or more wins than the total win number for five teams (Buffalo, Columbus, Vancouver, Edmonton, and Toronto).

5. The Caps finished their 3-2 win over Arizona with their third straight game out-attempting their opponents at 5-on-5, reversing a three-game streak in which they were on the wrong side of 50 percent Corsi-for.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Montreal:  Tomas Plekanec

Tomas Plekanec is one of those under-the-radar guys who is effective without usually being included on a short list of the game’s top players.  In five of his last seven full seasons (not including the lockout-shortened 2012-2013 season) he finished with more than 50 points, three times hitting or surpassing 60 points.  He would seem to be a lock to add to his total of 50-point campaigns this season with 44 points in 60 games (he is on a pace to hit exactly 60).  He is also a very durable player, missing just 12 games in his last ten seasons, including this one.  Something he does not have this season, and what the Caps would like to keep him from getting, is a shorthanded point.  He has recorded at least one shorthanded point in each of the last nine full seasons preceding this one (again, not counting the 2012-2013 lockout-shortened season).  He is 14-15-29, plus-3, in 39 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Nate Schmidt

It might be an odd thing to point out, but there are only two players in the league who have 13 or fewer points and a plus-14 or better – the New York Rangers’ Kevin Klein and the Caps’ Nate Schmidt.  Sure, you can say that the plus-minus is a product of hitching a ride on the best scoring offense in the league, but Schmidt has put together a solid year while assuming more responsibility (as all defensemen did) after Brooks Orpik went down to injury.  Schmidt is averaging 18:58 in ice time per game, a career high so far, and he has already appeared in 53 games, surpassing his previous high of 39 games last season.  Those 14 points are more than three times the number he put up last season (4), and he has already more than doubled his career best in blocked shots with 88 (he had 35 in 29 games in 2012-2013).  Schmidt comes into this game without a point in his last four games, and he is 0-2-2, plus-4, in five career games against Montreal.

In the end…

This is one of those games where fans will take notice if the Caps get up in the Canadiens’ faces early and stand on their throats, figuratively speaking.  Montreal is a severely weakened team without Carey Price, especially in goal where none of the other netminders taking the ice for them this season have a goals against below 2.50 or a save percentage above .905.  It has made their postseason prospects are bleak.  Meanwhile, the Caps have played games rather close over the last three weeks, but they have found themselves consistently on the right side of them.  If the Caps score early in this one, it could turn into a rout.

Capitals 4 – Canadiens 2

Washington Capitals Recap: A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 3 - Coyotes 2

Coming from behind to win games in the NHL is a hard thing to do, but the Washington Capitals are making a habit of it lately. On Monday night the Caps spotted the Arizona Coyotes the game’s first goal, then scored three before holding off the visitors in a 3-2 win at Verizon Center.

After a scoreless first period, Kevin Connauton got the Coyotes on the board in the second period when he took a pass from Tobias Rieder on a 3-on-2 rush, curled to the middle, and snapped a shot past goalie Braden Holtby’s glove 3:25 into the period.

The Caps evened the score on a power play less than three minutes later. With Martin Hanzal in the box for Arizona, Evgeny Kuznetsov circled out from the right wing wall, and with no passing options available called his own number, wristing a shot that seemed to handcuff Coyote goalie Louis Domingue, sneaking under the goalie’s left arm and trickling over the goal line to make it 1-1 at the 6:03 mark.

Washington broke the tie mid-way through the third period when Alex Ovechkin scored his league-leading 39th goal. Taking a pass from Justin Williams along the left wing wall, Ovechkin stepped out a took measure of his options. He chose a wrist shot that sailed past the leg of defenseman Jarred Tinordi, who tried to block the shot, and under Domingue’s right arm to give the Caps their first lead at the 8:17 mark.

Just 26 seconds later the Caps had a two-goal lead, but not without some controversy. Tom Wilson started the play by firing a one-timer from the right wing circle off a feed from Jason Chimera. Domingue gloved the puck down, but not cleanly. The puck dropped onto his pad, and then to the ice where Domingue slapped his glove on it. Wilson followed up his own shot, though, and poked the puck free. For a split second Domingue turned to the referee behind the net seeking a stoppage, but the puck was free for Mike Richards to snap it into the net from the low slot for a 3-1 lead and setting Domingue off onto a stick swinging fit against his own net.

Just one minute later the Coyotes made it interesting once more with Connor Murphy firing a long range shot from the right point that made its way through a crowd before eluding Holtby, but that would be as close as the Coyotes would get as the Caps won their fourth straight, 3-2.

Other stuff…

-- The Caps won their 44th game of the season. The 44 wins ranks tied for ninth in franchise history (with the 1999-2000 team), and the Caps still have 24 games left to play.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov extended his points streak to five with a goal and an assist. He is 9-25-34 in his last 27 games.

-- Mike Richards’ goal was his first as a Capital and his first since he recorded one with the Los Angeles Kings in a 7-6 overtime loss to the Nashville Predators on January 3, 2015.

-- Alex Ovechkin recorded an assist in addition to his 39th goal of the season. It is the first time he recorded assists in consecutive games since he had helpers on November 28th and December 3rd in wins in Toronto against the Maple Leafs and in Montreal against the Canadiens.

-- The Caps took it on the chin in the faceoff circle, winning just 33 of 74 draws (44.6 percent). Only T.J. Oshie among the Caps taking more than two draws won more than he lost (4-for-7).

-- This was the fifth straight game in which the Caps allowed the game’s first goal. The Caps raised their record to 15-9-4 in such games, the only team in the league with a winning record when allowing the first goal.

-- The win was the Caps 16th in their last 18 home games (16-1-1).  They are a league-best 23-4-2 at home.  No, they do not have a chance to set a record for home wins (the Philadelphia Flyers were 36-2-2 at home in 1975-1976), but they are on a pace to finish with the most home wins (33) in the post-2004-2005 lockout era.

-- It was yet another case of the Caps grinding a team down.  Arizona out-attempted the Caps in the first period at 5-on-5, 16-14, but the Caps had a 14-7 edge in the second period, and they out-attempted the Coyotes at 5-on-5 by an 8-6 margin before striking for two goals in 26 seconds in the third period.

-- Braden Holtby was sharper than he has been recently, especially in facing fewer than 30 shots.  Stopping 25 of 27 shots, it was the first time he faced fewer than 30 shots and had a save percentage above .925 (.926 in this game) since he stopped 25 of 27 shots in a 3-2 win at Boston against the Bruins on January 5th.  He had gone nine appearances facing fewer than 30 shots without posting a save percentage as high.

-- The Caps were six-for-six in killing penalties, tying the most shorthanded situations faced this season and the first time this season that they faced more than five shorthanded situations and killed them all.

In the end…

Another “not pretty but we’ll take it” sort of result.  This team is in a part of the season where they just seem to find a way to scratch and grind out wins when they do not quite have their “A” game.  The trick has been getting reliable contributions from names we recognize (in this instance Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Braden Holtby) and from names that do not show up as frequently (but change on a game to game basis), in this case Mike Richards and Tom Wilson.  It works for this club, well enough that they will have a chance to secure their sixth winning streak of five or more games on Wednesday when they host the Montreal Canadiens.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 58: Coyotes at Capitals, February 22nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals look to extend their current winning streak to four games on Monday night when they host the Arizona Coyotes in the second game of their four-game home stand. 

While the Caps come into this game one of the hottest teams in the NHL, 8-2-0 in their last ten games (second best ten-game record in the league), the Coyotes are stumbling through this portion of their schedule.  It wasn’t always this way this season.  Back on January 12^th, the Coyotes were on a four-game winning streak and were sixth in points in the Western Conference.  Then the Coyotes suffered a four-game losing streak that set in motion a 5-9-2 record over 16 games that leaves them in fifth place in the Pacific Division and five points out of a playoff spot.

The Coyotes might be coming out of their funk, though.  They are 3-2-0 in their last five games, including a 6-3 win over the Dallas Stars (who the Caps have not beaten in two decisions this season) and a 6-2 win over the Montreal Canadiens, a squad that a lot of teams beat these days, but not as soundly.

In those most recent five games, the Coyotes have not lacked for offense.  They scored 21 goals in those games, recording four or more four times.  Their defense, on the other hand, has lacked stinginess and consistency.  The Coyotes did have games in which they allowed one goal (a 4-1 win over the Calgary Flames) and two goals (the win over Montreal), but they allowed a total of 16 goals in those five games, including six in a 6-4 loss to St. Louis in their most recent game on Saturday.

The Coyotes are led in scoring over the last five games by Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Martin Hanzal, both with seven points.  Defenseman Ekman-Larsson (2-5-7 in his last five games) is one of those players who, if he played in the East or for a more accomplished team, might get more attention than he gets with the Coyotes.  He is among the more durable players in the game, at perhaps it most difficult position, having missed two games in his last five seasons.  He has already topped the 40-point mark for the third straight season (45, a career high) and had achieved career bests in assists (28), power play goals (11), and game-winning goals (7).  So far this season, only Erik Karlsson has had more games with three or more points among defensemen (6) than Ekman-Larsson (5).  He could miss this game, though, having sustained a lower-body injury in the Coyotes’ loss to St. Louis on Saturday.  He is 1-2-3, minus-2, in five career games against the Capitals.

Hanzal has not had the kind of production over his career that a 17^th overall draft pick (2005) might have been expected to have.  Only once has he had as many as 40 points in a season (40 in 2013-2014), and only once has he had more than 15 goals in a season (16 in 2010-2011).  He is on a pace to challenge both of those career highs this season.  He would probably be a lock to surpass his career highs but for missing 13 games to lower body injuries this season, injuries being a recurring theme in his career.  He has not appeared in more than 70 games in a season since the 2009-2010 season and will not this season with 13 games already missed.  Hanzal is 1-3-4, plus-1, in six career games against Washington.

Goaltending has been an issue for the Coyotes this season, but out of adversity has come opportunity.  Mike Smith has been on injured reserve since early December after undergoing surgery for a core muscle injury.   That injury might have opened the door for Anders Lindback, a six-year veteran of 111 NHL games, to step up.  But instead, the opportunity was snatched up by Louis Domingue, a fifth round draft pick of the Coyotes in 2010, who had just seven games of NHL experience coming into this season.  In his first 16 decisions taking over in goal, Domingue was 9-4-3, 2.08, .931, with two shutouts.  However, he has fallen to earth since, going 3-5-1, 3.76, .882 in his last nine appearances.  He has never faced the Capitals.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Scoring first is a reliable predictor of wins and losses in the NHL for most teams.  Not so for the Arizona Coyotes, though.  The Coyotes have the third-worst winning percentage in the league in games in which they score first (.552/16-9-4).

2.  Part of the Coyotes’ problem is giving up first period goals.  Only five teams in the league have allowed more first period goals than Arizona (50).

3.  No team has allowed more shorthanded goals than the Coyotes (10).

4.  Arizona leads the league in total power play opportunities (217).  However, they rank only 11^th in power play opportunities on the road (91).

5.  Arizona has issues with respect to possession.  They rank 28^th overall in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (46.7 percent), 27^th in score-adjusted Corsi-for (46.4 percent).  Their road numbers are not much different, 45.7 percent overall (25^th) and 46.7 in score-adjusted Corsi-for (25^th, numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  The Caps have 90 standings points this season, tops in the league.  If they took a month-long team vacation in Fiji, the second-ranked team in the East, the Florida Panthers, could not catch them at the earliest until March 10^th, and only after putting together an eight-game winning streak.

2.  Sure, the Caps have the most wins in the league when leading after two periods (32-0-1), but they also have the best record in the league when trailing after two periods (5-6-2).

3.  The Caps have the smallest difference in the league between their home power play efficiency (23.3 percent) and their road power play efficiency (23.1 percent).

4.  Only five teams in the league have allowed fewer power play goals at home than the Caps (11).

5.  In their last 10 home games, the Caps have an aggregate Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall of 52.5 percent (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Arizona: Max Domi

Max Domi is tied for fourth among all NHL rookies in goals scored this season (17) and tied for third in total points (41).  He’s keeping good company, since the player with whom he is tied in both categories is 2015's second-overall draft pick Jack Eichel.  Domi, the 12^th overall pick of the 2013 entry draft.  He started this season with a rush, going 8-7-15 in his first 16 games.  Then he skidded off the road, recording goals in just two of his next 40 games (a two-goal game on December 4^th against Buffalo and a hat trick against Edmonton on January 12^th).  He does have a pair of goals in each of his last two games, though, suggesting he might be getting a second wind.  This will be his first appearance against the Caps.

Washington: Matt Niskanen

Matt Niskanen has put together a quietly steady season, at least on the surface.  He leads the Caps in average ice time – 24:38 per game, a career high.  He is third among Caps defensemen in goals (3), second in points (24), second in power play points (11), third in plus-minus (plus-15).  He is on a pace to record the second highest number of shots on goal in his career.  However, he has been struggling recently at both ends of the ice.  He has one point in his last six games, and he was a minus-3 in the 4-3 win over the New Jersey Devils on Saturday.  No Capital has been on ice for more goals this season than Niskanen (57), although these things are relative, too.  There are 41 NHL defensemen who have been on ice for more goals than Niskanen, and he ranks 44^th among 202 defensemen with at least 300 5-on-5 minutes in goals against/on ice per 60 minutes.  He is 2-6-8, minus-5, in 27 career games against the Coyotes.

In the end…

On paper, the Coyotes are a team the Caps should dispatch handily.  Arizona allows too many goals, has a weak penalty kill, they haven’t won a road game in regulation since January 7^th, and they haven’t won a road game in the Eastern time zone since November 19^th (3-2 at Montreal).  Then again, it’s a game on a weeknight in February against a team the Caps do not have much of a rivalry with, having faced the Coyotes only five times at Verizon Center since the 2004-2005 lockout (3-2-0).  This is a game that will test the team’s focus and attention, and with the Caps playing with fire recently, allowing the game’s first goal in each of their last four games, this could be a tougher battle than the records of the teams might suggest.  Or not…

Capitals 5 – Coyotes 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 19

Week 19 for the Washington Capitals was a bit like a commute in late winter. A lot of potholes along the way, some of them avoided, others making for a bumpy ride.  But just like the earnest commuter, the Caps got past the potholes and made it to their destination – a perfect week.

Record: 3-0-0

OK, it was an imperfect week in a number of ways, and we will get to that.  But, the Caps did have their seventh perfect week this season as far as record is concerned.  Compare that to last season, when through 19 weeks the Caps had yet to record a perfect week (they had one all of last season).  The three games in Week 19 provided a significant test for the Caps.  Facing the Los Angeles Kings in the first game of the week, they were up against the league’s best possession team at 5-on-5.  In the New York Islanders and New Jersey Devils, the Caps were facing a pair of teams on the playoff margins, desperate to put some space between themselves and the teams outside the playoff mix (the Islanders) or desperate to climb into the playoff mix (the Devils).  As it was the Caps’ wins over the Islanders and Devils boosted their record to 16-3-2 against the Metropolitan Division, while the win over the Kings lifted their record to 11-3-2 against the Western Conference.

Offense:  3.33/game (season: 3.30 /game; rank: 1st)

Three games, ten goals, an “average” week for the Caps.  In another way, though, it was not.  The Caps scored three or more goals in all three games, bringing their season total to 38 games with three or more goals, second in the league to the Dallas Stars (41 games).  The Caps finished Week 19 with a 34-1-2 record when they score three or more goals, the best winning percentage in the league.

On an individual level, Alex Ovechkin led the team with three goals. He finished the week leading the league with 38 goals and raised his career total to 513, tying Jeremy Roenick for 37th place on the all-time list.  He finished the week with ten goals in his last nine games, 17 in his previous 17 games, and 24 in his last 26 games. 

Evgeny Kuznetsov tied Ovechkin for the team lead in points (2-2-4).  He extended quite a run of production of his own.  Kuznetsov finished the week on a four-game points streak and is 8-24-32 in his last 26 games.  He also added a two-point game in Week 19, a goal and an assist in the Caps’ 4-3 win over the New Jersey Devils to end the week.  It was his 17^th multi-point game of the season, tied for fourth-most in the league.

Overall, the Caps had goals from seven different players and points from 15 different players.  Over such a limited span of games, that was rather good balance.  One of those goals came from Brooks Orpik, his second of the season, and as the final goal in the Caps’ 4-3 win over the New Jersey Devils it was the first regular season game-winning goal in Orpik’s 798-game career.

Defense: 2.00/game (season: 2.28 /game; rank: 3rd)

When the Capitals faced the Los Angeles Kings to open the week, they knew they would be facing a superior possession team – tops in the league, in fact.  The Kings did not disappoint, dominating in shot attempts at 5-on-5, 56-39, and out-shooting the Caps by a 40-32 margin, the first time the Caps allowed 40 or more shots on goal in over two months, since the Pittsburgh Penguins recorded 45 In a 4-1 Caps’ win on December 14^th.

The Caps won that game, though, then they rebounded at the defensive end in the last two games of Week 19.  They held the Islanders to 35 shot attempts at 5-on-5 and just 22 shots on goal.  After a slow start, the Caps were similarly stingy against the Devils to close the week, holding them to 44 shot attempts and 24 shots on goal.  The Caps were able to get out of the week with a 50.9 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall.

It was a rough week for the Matt Niskanen/Karl Alzner defensive pair, which was on ice for four of the six goals scored against the Caps.  Nicklas Backstrom also had an uncharacteristically difficult week with four goals scored against the Caps while he was on ice.

Goaltending: 1.96 /.930 (season: 2.16 / .925 / 2 shutouts)

A week with a goals against average as low as the Caps had (1.96) and a save percentage as high (.930) would normally be considered a good week.  But all of the “good” might have come in the opening game of the week.  Philipp Grubauer stopped 39 of 40 shots on goal in the Caps’ 4-1 win over the Los Angeles Kings.  It has not been irregular instance, either.  Grubauer finished the week with a record of 4-2-0, 1.64, .945 in his last nine appearances.  In the meantime, he took over the team lead in save percentage for the season (.925).

That was because Braden Holtby had, for him, a rather forgettable week.  In two games, he allowed five goals on 46 shots.  It was not so much the goals against average (2.42) as the save percentage (.891), a product of his facing just 46 shots for the week.  Three of the five goals he allowed for the week were first period scores, both times allowing the game’s first goal.  He had a first period save percentage of .870, not "Holtbyesque," but his third period save percentage was worse (.857), made better by facing so few shots (14 over the two games).  He finished the week with an odd set of numbers.  In games in which he faced 30 or more shots, he had a save percentage of .948.  In those in which he faced fewer than 30 shots, the save percentage was .904.  Maybe it is a function of quality of shots, perhaps it is a function of focus.

Power Play: 1-for-13 / 7.7 percent (season: 23.2 percent; rank: 1st)

Maybe it was facing three of the top-ten penalty killing teams in the league in Week 19.  Maybe it was just part of a longer slump.  Whatever the reason, the Caps’ 1-for-13 performance on the man advantage extended an 11-game run over which the Caps are 4-for-41 (9.8 percent).  It gets worse.  Even though the power play’s first option is for an Alex Ovechkin one-timer from the left-wing faceoff circle, it – or rather, he – cannot be the only option.  Ovechkin has all four power play goals in those 41 opportunities, including the goal in Week 19 scored against the Islanders.  The last Capital not named “Ovechkin” to record a power play goal was Nicklas Backstrom, 4:47 into the second period of the Caps’ 6-3 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets on January 19^th.  Ovechkin had a power play goal in that game, too.

Overall, the team was just as inefficient as it was ineffective.  The Caps managed one goal on just 16 shots in 23:11 of power play ice time (0.69 shots per minute).  The shots had an interesting geography to them.  Ovechkin had 10 of the 16 shots on goal, Evgeny Kuznetsov had four, and T.J. Oshie had two, the three players comprising the “3” in the 1-3-1 Caps power play.  Add in allowing a shorthanded goal (Anze Kopitar of the Kings), and it was not a very good week for the power play.

Penalty Killing: 6-for-6 / 100.0 percent (season: 84.3 percent; rank: 5th)

The week was much better on the other side of the special teams divide.  The Caps limited opportunities (six), limited chances (eight shots on goal), and limited the damage (no goals).  The six shorthanded situations faced in three games is the lowest power plays faced per game since Week 6, when the Caps faced five shorthanded opportunities in three games.  The Caps were efficient in killing penalties, too, allowing just eight shots on goal in 11:34 of shorthanded ice time.  And it was not a case of facing softies on the power play.  The Kings were the second-ranked power play when they faced the Caps, the Devils were sixth, and the Islanders were 11^th.  Week 19 was good to the Caps on the penalty kill.

Faceoffs: 85-for-174 / 48.7 percent (season: 49.7% / rank: 19th)

Week 19 was an uneven week in the circle for the Caps.  They topped 50 percent in one of the three games (57.1 percent against the Islanders) and managed to top 50 percent only in the offensive zone (57.8 percent).  That was an unexpected result, at least in losing two of the three games of the week, because the Caps won just 45.3 percent of their draws against the Devils, the second-worst team in the league in faceoff winning percentage.

On an individual basis, five Caps took at least ten draws for the week, and only two – Marcus Johansson (57.7 percent) and Mike Richards (54.5 percent) – topped 50 percent.  Nicklas Backstrom had an odd week, going one draw under .500 in each of the three zones to finish 18-for-41 (43.9 percent).  Evgeny Kuznetsov won 60.0 percent of his draws in the offensive end (15-for-25) and still finished the week under 50 percent (48.2/27-for-56).

Goals by Period:

On a goals-by-period basis, the Caps spent too much time chasing teams in Week 19.  They allowed the first goal in all three games and were outscored, 4-1, in the first period overall.  The Caps are weakest in goal differential in the first periods of games this season, starting Week 19 with a plus-7 differential.

As has been the case over much of the season, though, the Caps dominated the last 40 minutes, outscoring teams by an 8-2 margin.  That raised the Caps’ goal differential to plus-26 in the second periods of games and plus-27 in the third period, both tops in the league.

In the end…

The Week 19 had a show title, it would be “The Late Show.”  The game winning goals for the week came as follows:

• 17:58 of the third period against the Kings (Kuznetsov)
• 4:16 of overtime against the Islanders (Williams)
• 16:02 of the third period against the Devils (Orpik)

That is cutting things a little too close to the margin of victories and defeats than Caps fans might like.  But it does seem to reflect an ability to avoid panic, to stick to the task at hand.  Whether this sort of squeezing out wins in the dying minutes of games is good preparation for the crucible of the postseason, or it is a prelude to disappointment when the Caps find themselves unable to produce a rabbit out of their helmets in the late stages of playoff games is just something we are going to have to wait and see about.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (2-2-4, plus-5, 1 GWG, finished week tops in plus-minus (plus-30, six points ahead of Los Angeles’ Tyler Toffoli)
• Second Star: Alex Ovechkin (3-1-4, even, 41 shot attempts, 1 PPG)
• Third Star: Brooks Orpik (1-2-3, plus-5, 12 hits, eight blocked shots, first career regular season GWG)