A TWO-Point Night -- Game 37: Washington Capitals 6 - Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (OT)

Things started well for the Washington Capitals on Tuesday night against the Toronto Maple Leafs, then they degenerated quickly as the Caps fell behind by a pair of goals after two periods, but they tied the game in the third period, tied it again after falling behind, then won it in overtime on an Alex Ovechkin bomb, 6-5.

Washington scored just 74 seconds into the contest when on a power play, Justin Williams redirected a Dmitry Orlov drive with his skate just enough for the puck to elude goalie Frederik Andersen’s right pad.

The lead was short-lived, though.  Toronto scored at the 6:39 mark when Nazem Kadri returned the favor on a power play of their own, jamming in a loose puck from the top of the crease past goalie Braden Holtby’s left pad.

Five minutes later, the Leafs had the lead.  Zach Hyman carried the puck down the middle through the neutral zone, and upon gaining the Caps’ blue line, he dished it off to Connor Brown on his right.  Brown stepped up and rifled a shot over Holtby’s glove, and it was 2-1, 11:44 into the period.

Washington tied it at the 16-minute mark on a patient effort by T.J. Oshie.  Coming out of the penalty box after serving a penalty, Justin Williams picked up a loose puck at the Toronto blue line and sped into the offensive zone, he spun to try to feed the puck back to Oshie, but it the pass was muffled by Morgan Rielly.  Oshie still managed to collect the puck, and then he circled to his right to try to improve his shooting angle.  As Nazem Kadri lost his edge and slid into Andersen, Oshie roofed the puck into the top of the net to tie the game once more.

Two minutes later, though, the Leafs had the lead again.  Connor Carrick took a loose puck off the right wing wall and fired a shot that was more of a change-up as he broke his stick.  The puck slid free, finding Frederik Gauthier at the top of the crease, and Gauthier finished the play, batting the puck past Holtby to make it 3-2 going into the first intermission.

With Philipp Grubauer relieving Braden Holtby to start the second period, Toronto added to their lead mid-way through the frame.  On another power play, Auston Matthews worked around Nicklas Backstrom along the right wing wall, then froze Brooks Orpik along the goal line before heading behind the Caps net.  From behind the net, he spun and found Leo Komoarov in the low slot for a shot on which Grubauer had no chance, and it was 4-2 at the 13:33 mark.

Washington made short work of the deficit in the third period, scoring two goals in 1:19 to tie the game early in the frame.  Evgeny Kuznetsov got the Caps within one when he one-timed a centering pass from Marcus Johansson from between the hash marks past Andersen at the 2:20 mark.  Then, Dmitry Orlov tied it at the 3:39 mark when he one-timed a cross-ice pass from Matt Niskanen from the right wing faceoff dot past Andersen.

Toronto took the lead backwhen Mitch Marner broke behind the Caps defense on a break and slid the puck between the pads of Grubauer 11:08 into the period.  That lead lasted less than three minutes.  John Carlson fed Evgeny Kuznetsov steaming through the neutral zone, and Kuznetsov carried the puck in on Andersen.  With Tyler Bozak hounding him, Kuznetsov did not have a shot and carried the puck past Andersen his left.   Kuznetsov passed the puck back in front, where it pinballed into the crease where Carlson jumped up to backhand it into the net at the 13:55 mark to make it a 5-5 game.

That would be how the teams went to overtime, and from the drop of the puck it took just 22 seconds to end it.  John Carlson out-dueled Leo Komarov for a loose puck along the right wing wall, freed himself, then sent a cross-ice pass to Alex Ovechkin, who one-timed the biscuit past a lunging Andersen to send everyone in red home happy, 6-5.

Other stuff…

-- The three goals allowed in the first period was the first time this season an opponent touched up the Caps for than many first period goals.  The last time it happened was last March 9^th in a 4-3 loss to the Los Angeles Kings in Los Angeles.

-- One of those first period goals was a power play goal, breaking a streak of 29 straight kills for the Caps going back to the third period of their 4-3 Gimmick win over Carolina on December 16^th.

-- Braden Holtby was relieved in goal after 20 minutes in favor of Philipp Grubauer, the first time a Capitals netminder was relieved in-game this season.

-- The two power play goals allowed was the first time the Caps allowed two or more in a game since the Columbus Blue Jackets nicked the Caps for a pair on three chances in a 3-2 Caps loss on November 20^th.

-- Justin Williams almost had a four-point game (1-3-4), which would have been his first in more than ten years, since he had a hat trick and an assist in a 5-1 Carolina Hurricanes win over the Tampa Bay Lightning on October 16, 2006.  However, the final official score sheet deducted an assist.  Even with his three-point effort, Williams is 8-7-15 in his last 14 games.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov had a four-point game of his own (1-3-4), his high for points this season and the most he had since he was 0-4-4 in a 6-3 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets last January 19^th.

-- Look at this play-by-play log of overtime (click on it for a larger image)…

…this is the way you draw it up.

-- But in-between, credit John Carlson with fighting off Leo Komarov along the right wing boards, freeing himself to make the pass that Ovechkin one-timed for the game-winner.

-- Alex Ovechkin’s overtime game game-winning goal was his 19^th overtime game winner of his career, tying Jaromir Jagr for most in NHL history.  The goal was also his 543^rd of his career, placing him one behind Maurice “Rocket” Richard, whose trophy he has owed the last four seasons.  Ovechkin’s goal completed a “Russian Hat Trick” of sorts.  He, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Dmitry Orlov had goals.

-- Lost in all this was goalie Philipp Grubauer who, although giving up two goals on 17 shots, did stop the bleeding after he relieved Braden Holtby and played well enough to give the team a chance to come back in the third period.

In the end...

If you like defense, you probably should have changed the channel from this game two minutes into the contest.  If you were nostalgic for the 1980’s, it was your cup of tea.  For stretches, the Maple Leafs looked like the Caps of the Bruce Boudreau years – opportunistic and cold-blooded when finishing plays.  But in the end, it was a bit of an imitation.  The Caps can still conjure up those kinds of efforts, being cold-blooded in their own right in pouncing on a young team prone to giving up third period leads (this was the sixth time Toronto lost a game in extra time this season when taking a lead into the third period).

This will be a fun game to rewind, but lurking now are the Columbus Blue Jackets, owners of a 16-game winning streak after their 3-1 win over the Edmonton Oilers.  They will come to Verizon Center on Thursday night with the chance to tie an NHL record for consecutive wins.  If any team can end that streak, you would think the Caps, with 14 goals in their last three games, could be just that team.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 37: Maple Leafs at Capitals, January 3rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Having gotten 2017 off to a good start with a New Year's Day win, the Washington Capitals look to double their pleasure and double their fun in the young new year when they host the Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday night at Verizon Center.

The Caps find themselves in the midst of a regular rhythm in their schedule, playing every other date starting with the New Year’s Day win over the Ottawa Senators and lasting until January 16^th, when the Caps will face the Pittsburgh Penguins in the back half of a back-to-back set of games.  As for the Maple Leafs, they will be coming off a wild and entertaining 5-4 overtime win over the Detroit Red Wings outdoors in the Centennial Classic at Exhibition Stadium in Toronto.

This will be the second of three regular season meetings between the clubs this season, the Caps dropping the first of them, a 4-2 loss in Toronto on November 26^th.  Since then, the Caps are 9-3-3, while the Leafs are 8-4-3.  Despite the winning records, neither team has made much headway in the standings since that first meeting.  After that game on November 26^th, Washington was third in the Metropolitan Division and fourth in the Eastern Conference.  On Tuesday, the Caps were fourth in the Metro and fifth in the conference.  Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs were fifth in the Atlantic Division and tenth in the Eastern Conference, precisely where they found themselves on Tuesday.

Toronto is led these days by a precocious trio of rookies who ranked first, third, and fourth among rookies in total scoring after the New Year’s Day games.  Foremost among them is the top overall draft pick of last June’s entry draft, Auston Matthews.  He leads all rookies with 20 goals and with 32 points through 36 games.  He exploded on the NHL scene with a four-goal game in his first professional game, a 5-4 overtime loss to the Ottawa Senators on October 12^th.  He had six goals in his first six games, but then went into a slump that had him without a goal and with only three assists over his next 13 games.  He came out of that slump with a two-goal/three-point performance against the New Jersey Devils in a 5-4 trick shot loss on November 23^rd.  Starting with that game, Matthews is 14-5-19, plus-76, over his last 17 games.  He had a goal in his only appearance against the Caps back on November 26^th.

Mitch Marner was another top-five draft pick of the Leafs, taken with the fourth-overall pick in the 2015 entry draft.  After completing his third year with the London Knights in Canadian junior hockey (a season in which he was 39-77-116, plus-45, in 57 regular season games and 16-28-44 in 18 postseason games), he stuck with the Maple Leafs to start this season.  He has been, to date, more of a player who puts up points in bunches.  He has eight multi-point games through 36 games so far, one behind Winnipeg’s Patrick Laine among rookies this season and tied with his rookie teammate, Matthews.  He comes into this game in the midst of what passes for a cool spell for him, 1-0-1 in his last four games.  Marner had two assists in the Leafs’ 4-2 win over Washington on November 26^th.

The third rookie in this trio is William Nylander, son of two-time former Capital Michael Nylander.  Taken as the eighth-overall pick in the 2014 entry draft, Nylander played a second season with MODO Hockey in Sweden, then joined the Toronto Marlies in the AHL to wrap up the 2014-2015 season.  He was 14-18-32 in just 37 games in his abbreviated season with the Marlies, then split time the following season between the Marlies (18-27-45 in 38 games) and the Maple Leafs (6-7-13 in 22 games).  Nylander has been a picture of consistency, especially for a rookie, his longest streak without a point this season just three games.  He comes into this contest with points in five straight games (2-3-5) and points in eight of his last 11 contests (2-7-9).  He did not play in the November 26^th contest against the Caps, the only game he has missed this season.  He does not have a point in one career appearance against Washington.

1.  Toronto has not had a 40-win season since 2006-2007 (40-31-11).  They are currently on a pace to finish this season with 39 wins.

2.  Only two rookies in Maple Leaf history have finished their inaugural season with at least 20 goals and at least 60 points.  The three aforementioned rookies all are on or near a pace to reach those marks.  Auston Matthews is on a pace to finish 46-27-73, Mitch Marner is on a pace to finish 21-41-62, and William Nylander is on a pace to finish 19-39-58.

3.  The Maple Leafs have a talent for jumping on teams early; they have a plus-10 goal differential in the first periods of games this season.  However, as perhaps the young team they are, closing teams out is a bit of an issue.  They have a minus-5 goal differential in the third periods of games.

4.  Toronto is one of four teams to have dressed eight rookies so far this season (Anaheim, Arizona, and Boston are the others).  No team has dressed more.  Six of the Leafs’ rookies have appeared in at least 35 games hand all of them have at least 15 points.  No other team in the league has more than two rookies with 15 or more points so far this season (New York Rangers, Philadelphia Flyers). 

5.  Toronto has not quite gotten the hang of possession.  They rank 13^th overall in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (50.39 percent) and, as the young team they are, they struggle on the road in this area, ranking 19^th away from Air Canada Centre (48.59 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey).

1.  The Caps have a fine franchise record in New Year’s Day games.  Their win over Ottawa on Sunday gave them a 16-6-1 record (with three ties) in Janaury 1^st games.  The second game of the new year?  Well, that needs work.  The Caps have a 10-11-1 record (with four ties) in their second games of the new year.

2.  The Caps will bring a six-game winning streak on home ice against Toronto into this game.  Over those games the Caps have outscored the Maple Leafs, 21-9 (not including a trick shot winning goal for the Caps in January 2015).

3.  The loss to the Maple Leafs in Toronto last November is one of just two regulation losses to Atlantic Division teams this year for the Caps.  They are 9-2-1 against the Atlantic so far.

4.  The Caps have trailed at the second intermission in 11 games this season.  They have won just once.  Only Dallas and the New York Islanders have failed to win in that situation so far this season.

5.  No Capital forward with more than 50 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time so far this season has a Corsi-for under 50 percent when the score is tied (numbers from Corsica.hockey). 

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Toronto: Connor Brown

Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander are among the rookie leaders in scoring so far this season, a fact that is not entirely surprising, given that all were top-ten draft picks.  Connor Brown, however, is an intriguing fourth member of the Toronto rookie scoring parade.  His is a case of hometown boy does good, despite a disadvantageous draft position.  The Toronto native was taken in the sixth round (156^th overall) in the 2012 entry draft, and he immediately displayed a potential for scoring, at least in Canadian juniors.  He was 25-28-53 in 68 games with the Erie Otters before being drafted by the Leafs, then posted seasons of 28-41-69 in 63 games and 45-83-128 in 68 games in years to follow with the Otters. 

Brown graduated to the Toronto Marlies of the AHL in 2014-2015 and posted 21 goals and 61 points in 76 games of his rookie pro season.  Last year, he was up for a cup of coffee with the parent club, getting his first NHL goal in seven games.  In 36 games so far this season, Brown is 7-9-16, plus-5, in 36 games, tied for tenth in rookie scoring overall (with teammate Zach Hyman, among others).  He might be getting the knack for scoring at the NHL level, going 3-4-7, plus-2, in his last five games.

Washington: Evgeny Kuznetsov

“Dark night of the soul” might be a bit too dramatic to describe Evgeny Kuznetsov’s current state of play (and with apologies to St. John of the Cross, who wrote the poem later given that name and that has an entirely different meaning for “dark night”), but one just wonders what is going on in Kuznetsov’s game and whether his confidence has been chipped at over the last six weeks.  Kuznetsov does not have a goal since before Thanksgiving (the night before), a span of 17 games.  He does have ten assists in that span, but he gives the impression of passing up opportunities from good scoring position in favor of trying to make a pass to a teammate. 

Head coach Barry Trotz apparently has taken notice, and Kuznetsov’s ice time has fallen off the table in his last four games, going from 19:05 to 16:27 to 14:44 to 13:40 in the New Year’s Day game against Ottawa.  In fact, Kuznetsov skated only 4:10 in the first period of that game and only 4:11 in the second period, not what one expects from a player who had been getting first line minutes not too long ago with Alex Ovechkin and T.J. Oshie.  It goes without saying that Kuznetsov has to raise his level of production a couple of notches if the Caps are going to make a deep push in the postseason, and perhaps the calendar turning over will give him that new life.  In eight career games against the Maple Leafs, he is 0-4-4, even.

In the end…

If you look at the Maple Leafs from a certain angle, they are the Capitals of the first couple of years coming out of the 2004-2005 lockout and the early stages of their 2007-2008 season in which they rode a late season push to elbow their way into the playoffs.  They are Toronto’s version of the Young Guns, a young, prolific offensive team that sits four points out of a playoff spot with 46 games to play.  That they bring a five-game winning streak into this game, four of the wins earned on the road, doesn’t hurt, either.  And letting them run wild on offense is not a prescription for winning. 

The Leafs are 11-0-4 in games this season when they score four or more goals, and only Pittsburgh, the Rangers, and Tampa Bay have scored four or more goals more times this season than Toronto.  The Caps have allowed four or more goals only five times this season, but a common thread among most of the opponents doing so is speed – Carolina, the Rangers, Edmonton, and the Leafs (who scored four in November against the Caps) have that attribute.  This makes this game a singular challenge for the Caps, one in which it will be interesting to note the degree to which Washington can impose its will on the whippersnappers from up north.

Capitals 4 – Maple Leafs 3

A TWO-Point Night -- Game 36: Washington Capitals 2 - Ottawa Senators 1

It took a while to shrug off the cobwebs of New Year’s Eve gaiety, but the Washington Capitals did just that in the third period of their New Year’s evening game against the Ottawa Senators at Verizon Center.  When it was over, the Caps had a hard-fought 2-1 win to get 2017 off to a good start.

After a scoreless first period, the visitors got the game’s first goal, courtesy of some opportunistic play down low by the Senators.  Marc Methot threw the puck in deep from the Caps’ blue line to put some pressure on the Caps.  Defenseman Matt Niskanen tried to stop it from winding around the corner boards, but the puck jumped over his stick to Ryan Dzingel at the edge of the trapezoid below the goal line.  Skating behind the net, Dzingel eased the puck out the back side to Kyle Turris, who slid a low shot along the ice past goalie Braden Holtby on the far side to make it 1-0, 12:41 into the second period.

That was all the scoring through what was a sleep-inducing first 40 minutes.  Well, almost 40 minutes.  With under a minute to play in the second period, Justin Williams took a long lead pass from John Carlson behind the Ottawa defense, breaking in alone on goalie Mike Condon.  Williams got a shot off, but it was turned aside by Condon.  T.J. Oshie followed up the play and won control of the puck behind the Senators’ net.  He sent the puck out to Karl Alzner in the left wing faceoff circle, and Alzner leaned into one, sending what play-by-play announcer Joe Beninati described as a “buzz bomb” past Condon’s left elbow to tie the game with just 19.5 seconds left in the period.

Early in the third period, the Caps took their first, last, and only lead they would need.  The Caps worked the puck around the perimeter, Tom Wilson to Taylor Chorney to Brooks Orpik and back to Chorney, who unleashed a one-timer from the right point that sailed through a maze of players and past Condon’s blocker to make it 2-1, 2:43 into the period.

The Caps would shut down the Senators after that, at one point holding the Senators without a shot for 7:32 late in the third period.  It was enough for the Caps to ring in the new year with a 2-1 win.

Other stuff…

-- There can be little doubt what the turning point of the game was.  It came at the 8:10 mark of the third period when Brooks Orpik and Evgeny Kuznetsov were sent to the penalty box to put Ottawa on a full two-minute 5-on-3 power play with the Caps nursing their 2-1 lead.  If Ottawa scores on one or both ends of the two-man advantage, it’s a whole different game.  The Caps killed off the two-man disadvantage, holding the Senators to a single shot on goal.  From there, Ottawa would record only four shots on goal in the last 10:17 of the game.

-- It was, as the score suggests, a very evenly played game.  The Caps enjoyed a 28-24 shot advantage, but the Senators had a 51-49 advantage in shot attempts at 5-on-5 (numbers from Corsica.hockey).

-- Almost as amazing as the one shot on goal allowed on the 5-on-3 Ottawa power play in the third period, they had only four shot attempts in the two minutes.  Two attempts were misses, and another was blocked.

-- This was the first time this season in which two defensemen scored goals in a single game for the Caps.  It was just the seventh game in which any defenseman scored.  The last time the Caps had two defensemen score in a game was last March 5^th in, coincidentally enough, a 2-1 decision over the Boston Bruins in Boston.  Karl Alzner and Matt Niskanen did the honors in that game.

-- The Caps had 19 shots on goal from forwards, almost two thirds of them coming from four players: Lars Eller (4), Andre Burakovsky (3), Evgeny Kuznetsov (3), and T.J. Oshie (3).  Through two periods, Oshie and Kuznetsov had just one shot on goal between them (Kuznetsov).

-- Speaking of Kuznetsov, he skated just 4:10 in the first period and just 4:11 in the second frame.  He had a total of 13:40 in ice time, matching his lowest of the season, that coming just this past December 23^rd against Tampa Bay.

-- The Caps were torched in the faceoff circle to the tune of 21 wins and 33 losses (38.9 percent).  It was worse at one point with the Caps having won just nine of the first 33 faceoffs of the game (27.3 percent).  No Capitals finished over 50 percent; Jay Beagle hit that mark by going 5-for-10.

-- Erik Karlsson must have thought he was on some weird Twilight Zone version of the old game show “Hollywood Squares.”  He had nine shot attempts blocked.  As a team, the Senators had 23 shot attempts blocked.  Seven different Capitals blocked Karlsson shot attempts.  For the record: Brett Connolly, Dmitry Orlov, T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom, Matt Niskanen, Jay Beagle, and Daniel Winnik (3).

-- This was the third time this season that the Caps played three games in four nights.  It seems to agree with them.  They went 3-0-0 in their first set to end October and begin November (Vancouver, Calgary, and Winnipeg), then they went 2-0-1 in their second set in mid-November (overtime loss to Columbus; wins over Pittsburgh and Detroit).  They finished up this third set with a 2-0-1 record (Gimmick loss to New Jersey; wins over New Jersey and Ottawa).

-- You need SPF-500 suntan lotion to stand in goalie Braden Holtby’s presence these days, his brilliance causing burns to unprotected skin.  With 23 saves on 24 shots in this game, Holtby is 6-2-3, 1.60, .943, with two shutouts in his last 11 appearances.

In the end…

We said in the prognosto that the Senators were not one of those divisional rivals that commanded attention, nor were they a marquee Western Conference team that would do likewise.  But they were a team with 20 wins and should not be taken lightly.  For the better part of two periods, the Caps seemed to be doing just that.  But good teams fight through those sluggish stretches, and they get production from unexpected sources when needed.  Getting goals from Karl Alzner and Taylor Chorney (the latter’s first game-winning goal since February 2011 with the Edmonton Oilers) would qualify as unexpected.  But new year, new ways to win. 

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 12

 A dozen weeks are in the books for the Washington Capitals, and Week 12 was among the strangest.  Despite scoring, stingy defense, and a lock-down penalty kill, the Caps managed only a .500 result in Week 12. 

Record: 1-1-1

Despite finishing the week with the fifth-best record in the Eastern Conference, the Caps remained in fourth place in the Metropolitan Division and lost another point in ground to the division-leading Columbus Blue Jackets, who finished their week on a 15-game winning streak of their own.  What is worse, the Caps completed that 1-1-1 record for the week against three teams in their own division. Well, two teams, since they split a home-and-home set with the New Jersey Devils, the division’s last-place team at week’s end.  The Caps finished Week 12 with a division record of 5-5-4.  The 6-2 win over New Jersey to close the week broke a three-game division losing streak for the Caps (0-1-2).

Offense:  3.33/game (season: 2.74 /game; rank: 13th)

A week averaging 3.33 goals per game usually ends better than a 1-1-1 record, but when six of those goals come in one game, the lack of consistency shows up in the record.  They scored those six goals against a backup goaltender – New Jersey’s Keith Kinkaid – who stymied them with 43 saves on 44 shots and another two saves in the Gimmick in the first of the two meetings with the Devils this week, and they were held to three goals on 34 shots against a goalie who was waived later in the week and sent to the AHL when he cleared the waiver wire. True, Jaroslav Halak is something of a demon in Capitals lore, but still. 

Alex Ovechkin and Justin Williams each had a pair of goals and a pair of assists to lead the Caps in goals and points for the week.  Eight different Caps recorded goals, including a shorthanded goal by Daniel Winnik for the only goal in Thursday night’s game against the Devils.  There were 14 different skaters recording points for the week, Matt Niskanen leading the team in assists with three. 

On the milestone watch…

• Nicklas Backstrom inched closer to 500 career assists with his 498^th helper, recorded on Saturday afternoon in the 6-2 win over New Jersey.  He also was a plus-1 in that game, allowing him to return to a career plus-100, only the second Capital in team history to record a career plus-minus of plus-100 or better (Rod Langway was plus-117). 
• Alex Ovechkin closed to within six points of 1,000 for his career with his four-point week.
• John Carlson’s assist for the week drew him to within four points of 250 for his career.
• Matt Niskanen passed the 200 assist mark for his career (201) with three assists for the week.

Defense: 2.33/game (season: 2.09 /game; rank: 3rd)

The Caps tightened the screws on defense as the week wore on, shots-wise.  After allowing the New York Islanders 31 shots on goal in the first game of the week, the Caps held the Devils to 27, then 23 shots to close the week.  When the Caps ended the week with a 6-2 win over New Jersey, they finished December not having allowed more than three goals in regulation time in any of the 14 games played for the month.   The two games holding opponents to fewer than 30 shots were the seventh and eighth times they accomplished that feat in December, and the 22^nd and 23^rd times in 35 games they have done it this season.  Only five teams have done it more times through the end of Week 12. 

The Caps held opponents to 110 shot attempts at 5-on-5 for the week, which contributed to a 54.7 percent Corsi-for at fives for the week (numbers from Corsica.hockey).  It was a frustrating result, in particular because the Caps held the Devils to 34 shot attempts at 5-on-5 in the first meeting of the clubs for the week while recording 54 of their own, then losing in the freestyle competition.  The Caps were just as stingy, in fact more so, in the second meeting of the clubs for the week, allowing just 31 shot attempts at 5-on-5 and recording only 34 of their own.  But, 6-2.  Hockey…go figure.

Goaltending: 2.30 / .914 (season: 2.02 / .927 / 4 SO)

It is a measure of just how good the goaltending has been for the Capitals this season when a week with a 2.30 goals against average might be considered sub-par.  If there was a problem, it was in decreasing save percentages across the periods for the week.  Braden Holtby and Philipp Grubauer posted a combined sterling save percentage of .957 in the first periods of games for the week (22-for-23).  The second periods were a more pedestrian .900 (27-for-30), and the third periods were a rather poor .857 (21 for 24), although one of those goals came with the Caps holding a 5-1 third period lead over the Devils in the last game of the week.

As it is, however, among 54 goaltenders having played in at least 400 minutes this season, the Caps are the only club in the league with two – Holtby and Grubauer – in the top ten in save percentage (.928 and .932, respectively).

Power Play: 0-for-12 / 0.0 percent (season: 17.0 percent; rank: 18th)

The ineffective Capitals power play is one of the persistent mysteries of this NHL season.  For a time, it looked as if the Caps were coming out of their stupor, going 8-for-21 (38.1 percent) in Weeks 9 and 10.  The 0-for-12 finish in Week 12 makes the Caps 0-for-15 over their last two weeks.  Compounding the problem is the relative infrequency with which the Caps find themselves on the man advantage.  The 12 chances in three games tied for the most chances per game in any week this season (they had 12 chances in two games in Week 8).

It was not an especially efficient power play, either, with a caveat.  The Caps managed just 14 shots on goal in 16:51 of power play ice time, including a no-shots performance against the Devils on Saturday to close the week.  However, while the Caps went 0-for-4 on the power play in that game and recorded no shots on goal, they had only 1:42 in total power play ice time, the longest power play lasting 1:01 and two “power plays” lasting less than ten seconds.  It only makes it a less bad week on the power play, not a good one.

Penalty Killing: 17-for-17 / 100.0 percent (season: 86.9 percent; rank: 3rd)

“Good” doesn’t really described the Caps’ penalty kill at the moment.  Adjectives such as “excellent” or “superb” would be more fitting, with another caveat.  In pitching three shutouts on the penalty kill for the week, the Caps extended their string of games not allowing a power play goal to six and the consecutive power plays killed off to 25, going back to the third period of a 4-3 trick shot win over the Carolina Hurricanes on December 16^th.  The Caps had a very efficient penalty kill, holding opponents to 14 shots on goal for the week.  It was so good that in the middle game of the week, the 2-1 Gimmick loss to New Jersey, the Caps had as many shots shorthanded as the Devils had on their own power play (four), and the Caps had the only special teams goal of that game, a shorthanded tally by Daniel Winnik.

There was a blemish, though.  Those 14 shots on goal came in 27:12 of shorthanded ice time, which is entirely too much, even if it is a perverse indicator of the penalty-killing success.  It might have been worse, given that the Caps were shorthanded 17 times in three games, tying Week 7 for most shorthanded situations faced.  But unlike Week 7, when the Caps faced those 17 situations in four games, the Caps did it in just three games in Week 12.

Faceoffs: 90-for-185 / 49.1 percent (season: 50.3% / rank: 11th)

It was not a good week in the circle for the Caps, but neither was it a terrible one.  They beat the Islanders in the first game of the week, but then lost both games within the games to the Devils on Thursday and Saturday.  There was a distinct display of opposites in the offensive and defensive zones where the Caps finished the week at 53.8 percent in the former and 43.8 percent in the latter.

A different set of opposites were on display at an individual level.  The usual suspects did well and did poorly.  Among skaters taking at least ten draws, there were Nicklas Backstrom (54.9 percent) and Jay Beagle (59.1 percent) well over 50 percent for the week. On the other hand, there were Lars Eller (41.5 percent) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (43.9 percent) well under 50 percent for the week.  That is pretty much how the season has unfolded for these four players, who are the top four Capitals in faceoffs taken.  There are Backstrom (52.9 percent) and Beagle (59.7 percent; fourth in the league among players taking at least 350 draws) comfortably over 50 percent, and then there are Eller (47.0 percent) and Kuznetsov (41.6 percent, 83^rd of 84 players taking at least 350 draws) well under that mark. 

Goals by Period:

Two things jump out from the week in goals scored by period – consistency on offense and stinginess in the first period on defense.  Some of that is tempered by scoring all three of their second period goals for the week in the last game, the 6-2 win over the Devils.  On the other hand, the Caps scored goals in all three third periods for the week, including that shorthanded goal that forced overtime and kept the Caps from a losing week overall.  The three goals allowed in the third periods of games is tempered as well by allowing one in what was to be a blowout win; the Caps held a 5-1 lead on the Devils on Saturday when they allowed a goal.  But the two allowed to the New York Islanders to start the week were troublesome, especially since they were scored less than a minute apart to break a 2-2 tie and give the Islanders a 4-2 lead in what would be a 4-3 loss for the Caps.  The Capitals finished the week tied with Los Angeles for the eighth-fewest third period goals allowed, but it is the highest volume period for the Caps so far this season, constituting 41 percent of the 73 total goals allowed by the club.

In the end…

The 2016 portion of the season ended with the Caps having 21 wins.  It is the eight club in team history to post more than 20 wins before New Year’s Day, and of those teams it is the one with the second-fewest losses in regulation time (nine), finishing with more such losses than only last year’s club that was 28-7-2 before New Year’s Day 2016.

Nevertheless, the club stumbled a bit into the new year, winning only two of five games over the last two weeks of the 2016 portion of the season.  The Caps are in no immediate danger of falling out of the playoff mix; they are five points ahead of the Tampa Bay Lightning with three games in hand.  However, Tampa Bay and the Florida Panthers (two points behind the Lightning) – two playoff teams from last season – are lurking out there, as are the rejuvenated Toronto Maple Leafs and Carolina Hurricanes (each one point behind Florida).  Nothing is certain, and the schedule, which has been kind to the Caps in the frequency of games this season (the Caps are tied with Toronto and the Columbus Blue Jackets for fewest games played (35)), begins to stack up after the first of the season when the Caps have only two instances in the first six weeks of the new calendar year when they have as many as two days off between games, not including the All-Star game break.

That is what makes Week 12 a bit disappointing.  The Caps had a chance to take advantage of the lower dwellers of the Metropolitan Division and build momentum heading into the new year.  Instead, they managed just three of a possible six standings points and lost a bit more ground to teams in front of them in the division standings.  Keep in mind that the three teams in front of the Caps – Columbus, Pittsburgh, and the Rangers – went a combined 36-6-2 in the month of December, while the Caps went a respectable 8-3-3 (that is a 111-point pace over a full season).  It just serves to show how hard it is to succeed over an 82-game regular season and points out that the regular season is not a meaningless exercise.  That might be the lesson of Week 12.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Justin Williams (2-2-4, plus-2, 11 shots on goal, 14 shot attempts, three blocked shots)
• Second Star: Jay Beagle (1-2-3, plus-3, points in all three games, “plus” in all three games, 26-for-44 on faceoffs (59.1 percent), two hits, two blocked shots)
• Third Star: Alex Ovechkin (2-2-4, even, 15 shots on goal, 27 shot attempts, four hits, two blocked shots)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 36: Senators at Capitals, January 1st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals welcome the new year and the Ottawa Senators to Verizon Center on Sunday evening to begin the 2017 portion of their 2016-2017 season.  It will be the first of three meetings between the clubs this season, all of which will take place in January, and the only one that will be played at Verizon Center.

Ottawa will come to Washington having wrapped up a December that had them treading water, but not much more.  For the month, the Senators were 6-4-3, dropping their last two games of the month, a 4-3 loss in New York to the Rangers and a 3-2 overtime loss to the Detroit Red Wings.  It is part of a streakiness that characterized the Senators’ December, posting a three-game losing streak, followed by a four-game winning streak, and then the two-game losing streak they bring to Washington.

Erik Karlsson is the top offensive defenseman of his generation.  Since he came into the league in 2009-2010, he has 417 points, 62 more than Chicago’s Duncan Keith over that span.  He is one of three defensemen with more than 100 goals over those years (Shea Weber and Dustin Byfuglien being the others).  He is also a three-time Norris Trophy finalist, winning the trophy in 2012 and 2015, and finishing second to Los Angeles’ Drew Doughty in the voting last season.  He is coming off a productive December in which he was 3-10-13 in 13 games.  Ah, but has his scoring made that much of a difference?  Yes, but not to an extraordinary level.  Ottawa is 5-2-0 when he scored a goal but just 12-6-2 when he recorded a point this season.  They are 8-6-2 when he is shut out on the score sheet.  Karlsson is 2-16-18, minus-3, in 21 career games against the Capitals.

The curious mid-career journey of Bobby Ryan continues.  After posting consecutive seasons of 30-plus goals in his first four full seasons in the NHL as a member of the Anaheim Ducks, he came back to the pack.  The abbreviated 2012-2013 season was a demarcation point of sorts, one in which he has his string of 30-plus goal seasons stopped with 11 in 46 games.  Since then, he has been a reliable 20-or-so goals per season player, but not the goal-scoring forward one might have foreseen when he was posting those productive early career seasons.  This season he is on a pace to finish with just 17 goals, and that is with a four-game goal streak he had in mid-December, breaking a streak of 16 games without a goal.  It is an odd circumstance for Ryan, whose 14.0 percent shooting efficiency is his best since he shot 15.2 percent in posting 31 goals for the Ducks in 2011-2012.  He has just 50 shots on goal in 31 games, a 124-shot pace that would be his lowest in a full season in his career.  Ryan is 6-4-10, minus-7, in 14 career games against Washington.

Ottawa has employed four goaltenders through 36 games so far this season.   Craig Anderson has the most games played for the Senators (19), but he has been on a leave of absence from the club since early December to be with his wife, Nicholle, who is undergoing treatment for cancer.  That has left the number one netminding duties to Mike Condon, who came to the Senators in a trade with the Pittsburgh Penguins in early November for a fifth round draft pick.  Condon, who appeared in every Ottawa contest in December, has performed respectably for the Senators with a record of 14-8-4, 2.43, .915, with two shutouts so far.  His December was not particularly kind to his overall numbers, although his win-loss record did suffer unduly for it.  Condon was 6-3-3 in 13 appearances in December (one no-decision) with a 2.56 goals against average, a .908 save percentage, and one shutout.  He does, however, come into this game with losses in his last two appearances, one of them in overtime to the Detroit Red Wings.  In three career appearances against the Caps, Condon is 1-2-0, 3.05, .898.

1.  Ottawa has, at least for the moment, a curious affinity for the number “21.”  Going into Saturday’s games, the Senators ranked 21^st in the league in scoring offense (2.50 goals/game), power play efficiency (16.5 percent), shots per game (28.9), fewest shots against per game (30.5), total goals (90), goals against at 5-on-5 (62), second period goals for (29), and third period goals for (29).

2.  Speaking of goals-for, Ottawa is the only team in the league to have scored the same number of goals in each regulation period (29).

3.  On New Year’s Eve, the Caps beat the team with the worst record in the Eastern Conference in games decided by three or more goals in the New Jersey Devils (2-9 in such games before falling to the Caps, 6-2).  On New Year’s Evening, the Caps will face the club with the second-worst such record in Ottawa, who is 3-8.

4.  Ottawa does not score first often, but when they do, they win.  With an 11-2-1 record when scoring first, the Senators have the third-best winning percentage in the league (.786).

5.  The Senators are not a particularly effective possession club.  Their 47.96 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 ranks 25^th in the league. They do rank higher in road games, 21^st at 48.09 percent (numbers from Corsica.hockey).

1.  Scoring first in games is still a thing for the Caps, who are tied for third (with Montreal) in wins when scoring first (17) and tied for third (with San Jose and Toronto) in total games scoring first (23).

2.  Only one team – the Columbus Blue Jackets – has gone to the first intermission of games trailing fewer times (6) than the Caps (7).  The Caps’ 4-3-0 record in those games is the third-best winning percentage (.571), trailing only Pittsburgh and the New York Rangers.

3.  Only the Columbus Blue Jackets have a larger first period goal differential (plus-19) than the Caps (plus-17).

4.  The third-ranked Washington penalty kill has become not just a very good one, but a very consistent one in one respect.  The Caps have a 1.1 percent differential between home (87.5 percent) and road (86.4 percent) penalty kill, the smallest such differential in the league (tied with Nashville, the 16^th-ranked penalty kill).

5.  The Caps return home with the fourth-ranked club in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 on home ice (52.89 percent).  They also have the second-best goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (1.54) in the Eastern Conference, trailing only Montreal (1.39; numbers from Corsica.hockey).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Ottawa: Ryan Dzingel

Left winger Ryan Dzingel has something of an interesting story.  Born in Wheaton, Illinois, not generally thought of as a hot hometown for NHL’ers (Dzingel is the only native of Wheaton ever to play in the NHL, according to Hockey-Reference.com),  a seventh-round draft pick (only seven players were picked later in the 2011 entry draft), and a “veteran” of just 75 games at the professional level (all with Binghamton in the AHL), he is the fifth-leading point getter (8-11-19) for the Senators in this, his first full season in the NHL (he played in 30 games for Ottawa last season and is thus ineligible for the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year).   He has displayed a certain talent for scoring goals, recording 45 in 110 games at Ohio State University and another 19 in 75 games with Binghamton in the AHL.  His eight goals in 36 games this season is on pace for an 18-goal season.  One interesting fact of his season to date is the that he has only seven “minus” games out of the 36 he has played to date, and none of those were worse than minus-1.  His plus-7 for the season is second-best on the club (Marc Methot is plus-12).  He did not record a point in his only career appearance against the Caps.

Washington: Karl Alzner

Karl Alzner, as a defensive defenseman, has never been a player to drive possession numbers, but his personal numbers are slipping over time in this area.  Two seasons ago, he was a 51.06 percent Corsi-for player at 5-on-5.  That dropped to 49.56 percent last season, and this season it is 48.30 heading into Sunday’s game against Ottawa (numbers from Corsica.hockey).  Of particular concern is that Alzner has played with six defensemen this season, and every one of them has better Corsi numbers apart from Alzner than playing with him (numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com).  The difference is less pronounced with the defensemen with whom Alzner has spent the most time (Matt Niskanen and John Carlson), but with both displaying a more than six percentage point improvement when separated from Alzner, the differences are still attention-getting.  Alzner is 0-4-4, plus-5, in 23 career games against Ottawa.

In the end…

This is an odd sort of trap game in what almost looks like a trap “week” for the Caps, who will open and close the week against the Senators (and the Senators do not have an intervening game between the meetings with the Caps) with Toronto and Columbus in-between.  Ottawa does not command the sort of attention a Metropolitan Division rival would, or the sort that a marquee Western Conference team like Chicago or Los Angeles might.  Nevertheless, the Senators do have 20 wins and sit just three points behind the Caps in the conference standings (the Caps hold a game in hand). The Senators also happen to have a 9-7-0 record on the road this season, fifth-best in the East.  It is not a team to be trifled with.  We think the Caps will skip the order of trifle for their first game of the season.

Capitals 4 – Senators 2

A TWO-Point Afternoon -- Game 35: Washington Capitals 6 - New Jersey Devils 2

The Washington Capitals ended 2016 on a high note, avenging their 2-1 Gimmick loss to the New Jersey Devils on Thursday night with a 6-2 win at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, on Saturday afternoon.

The Caps scored early, late, and in-between in downing the Devils.  Brett Connolly was the “early,” scoring just 2:36 into the contest, driving hard to the net from the left wing and redirecting an Andre Burakovsky backhand pass past goalie Keith Kinkaid.

Jay Beagle scored late in the first period, the product of hard work establishing position at the top of the crease in front of Kinkaid.  Battling with Damon Severson for advantage, Beagle managed to get his stick free to redirect a shot from Brooks Orpik down and to Kinkaid’s right to give the Caps a 2-0 lead at the 19:01 mark.

New Jersey halved the Caps’ lead early in the second period when Kyle Palmieri collected a loose puck in the right wing faceoff circle, caught the Caps cheating a bit leaning out of the defensive zone, and stepping up to roof a shot over the shoulder of goalie Philipp Grubauer at the 6:53 mark.

After that, it was all Caps in the second period.  It started with T.J. Oshie jumping on a rebound of a shot from Nicklas Backstrom and snapping a shot from the slot past Kinkaid, who was unable to get back into position after making the initial save. 

After Oshie’s goal at the 11:05 mark, the Caps scored again just 33 seconds later.  Matt Niskanen picked up a sliding puck at the right point and fired a shot wide to the left of Kinkaid.  The puck caromed off the end wall and out the other side of the net onto the stick of Alex Ovechkin, who buried the opportunity from the bottom of the left wing circle past Kinkaid at 11:38 to make it a 4-1 game.

Justin Williams closed the scoring late in the second period on another play started by Niskanen.  Taking a pass from Dmitry Orlov at the right point, Niskanen took a moment, then wristed a shot at the Devils’ net that Williams reached back to deflect down and past Kinkaid at the 16:34 mark of the period.

Beau Bennett made the score a little more respectable late in the third period when he duplicated Williams’ redirect from the same spot on the ice, this time getting his stick on a Ben Lovejoy drive to make it 5-2, 14:52 into the period.  The Caps responded less than a minute later when Williams and Evgeny Kuznetsov executed a give and go, Williams eventually getting the puck low in the right wing faceoff circle where he sent it across to Marcus Johansson driving to the net.  Johansson redirected the puck over Kinkaid’s right pad to close the scoring and give the Caps a 6-2 win to close the 2016 portion of their season on a high note.

Other stuff…

-- Thirteen of 18 skaters recorded points for the Caps.  Five of them had multi-point games (Matt Niskanen, Alex Ovechkin, Justin Williams, Brooks Orpik, and T.J. Oshie).

-- What a difference two days makes.  The Caps had fewer shot attempts (41) in this game than they had shots on goal (44) on Thursday night against the Devils, but they had six goals to one on Thursday.

-- Nine power plays allowed sounds like a lot, and it is.  But the Devils had only 12:17 in power play ice time owing to a number of overlapping penalties.  And the Caps continue to stymie opponents on their power plays.  The Devils had only seven shot on goal for their 12:17 in power play ice time. 

-- The 9-for-9 penalty kill made it six straight games without allowing a power play goal and 25-for-25 going back to the third period of the Caps’ 4-3 Gimmick win over the Carolina Hurricanes on December 16^th.

-- Every Capital was a “plus” player in this contest, save one – Alex Ovechkin (even).

-- The Caps had two fighting majors in this game (Tom Wilson, Daniel Winnik), the first fighting majors they had in a game since November 26^th.  It was the first time the Caps had two fighting majors in one game since March 9^th of last season when Tom Wilson and Mike Weber had five-minute majors against the Los Angeles Kings.  Winnik’s fighting major was the first for a Cap other than Wilson this season.

-- Nicklas Backstrom’s assist on T.J. Oshie’s goal was his 498^th career assist.  In addition to putting him within two of 500 for his career, he passed Vyacheslav Kozlov for 141^st all-time in assists and put him one behind Randy Carlyle and Marc Savard on the all-time list.

-- Six goals is a season high for goals in a road game for the Caps, topping the five they had in a 5-2 win in Vancouver against the Canucks on October 29^th.

-- Alex Ovechkin had four assists in his first 19 games this season.  His assist in this game was his seventh in his last 16 games.  Okay, so he’s not Gretzky.

-- Philipp Grubauer is putting together quite a season as a backup goalie.  With the win, he is now 6-1-1, 1.86, .932, with one shutout.

In the end…

The nine power plays allowed is a problem, even if one accounts for the odd manner in which this game was officiated (how does a retaliation two-handed check to the back of Dmitry Orlov not get called in a game with 19 penalties called, for instance?).  But six goals and points from 13 players against a goalie who was all but impenetrable on Thursday night was a good sign, too.  Although the Devils are a struggling team, this game was evidence that the Caps are a very good team when properly motivated. 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 35: Capitals at Devils, December 31st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Washington Capitals wrap up their home-and-home set with the New Jersey Devils in Newark on Saturday afternoon, looking to clean up the mess of sorts they left on the ice at Verizon Center on Thursday night.  Against the Metropolitan Division’s weakest team, the Caps left a standings point on the table when they managed to put just one puck past backup goaltender Keith Kinkaid on 44 shots in the hockey portion of the contest and another two shots in the freestyle competition.

For the Devils part, they scored only one goal of their own, which made it six times in the last ten games that New Jersey’s offense was held to one or fewer goals.  Over those ten games, the Devils are 2-7-1 and have averaged just 15 goals in the process.  This is a team with severe scoring issues, even without considering the absence of second-leading scorer Taylor Hall (lower body injury).

P.A. Parenteau’s fifth goal in the ten-game stretch, most on the club over that span, was the Devils’ only goal in their 2-1 Gimmick win on Thursday night against the Caps.   Parenteau has been a consistent goal scorer over his nine-year career, averaging just under 20 goals per 82 games.  If there has been an issue about his play, especially in recent years, it is availability.  Since appearing in all 48 games in the abbreviated 2012-2013 season, Parenteau has missed 60 games over just under three-and-a-half seasons.  The absences were the product of a myriad of causes – knee, upper body, concussion, upper body injury again.  He did appear in 77 games for the Toronto Maple Leafs last season and has missed only two games for the Devils so far this season.  If he can continue his good health, he is on a pace to record his third 20-goal season of his career.  He is 5-7-12, plus-6, in 15 career games against Washington.

Adam Henrique leads the Devils in total scoring over their last ten games (3-4-7).  With nine goals this season, he remains below his goal scoring pace of last season (30 in 80 games, his first 30-goal season), but his points pace ((46) would be right in line with his career points pace per 82 games coming into this season (48).  It would be hard to replicate last year’s goal scoring pace based on his shooting percentage.  Last season, Henrique potted 30 goals on 149 shots, a 20.1 percent efficiency.  That mark was second in the league among 319 players recording at least 100 shots.  This season his shooting percentage is down to 14.8 percent, a bit lower than his career shooting percentage going into last season (16.6 percent).  Henrique is 4-4-8, minus-11, in 19 career games against the Caps.

Also contributing three goals over the last ten games is forward Miles Wood.  Known more recently as a fan of Alex Ovechkin as a youngster, Wood has made a decent impression in his rookie year.  The 100^th pick taken in the 2013 entry draft, has four goals in just 17 games so far this season, which makes him almost a reincarnation of Patrik Elias (the leading goal scorer in Devils’ history) on this team.  If there is an odd part to his goal scoring, it is that three of his four goals have come on the road (good news for Caps fans, given this game will be played in Newark).  Wood showed an early propensity to take penalties (minor penalties in four of his first five games this season), but he had toned that down to a degree, the only blemishes on his compliance with the rules over his last dozne games being one minor penalty and a fighting major stemming from a scrap with former Cap Steve Oleksy in the Devils’ 4-1 loss to Pittsburgh on December 23^rd.  He did not have a point in his first career appearance against the Caps on Thursday.

1.  The trend of scoring one or no goals by the Devils is a recent one.  While they have those six games in their last ten in which they recorded one or no goals, they only have ten such games all season.  They are 1-8-1 in those games, the only win coming against the Caps.

2.  Shooting is a more persistent issue for New Jersey.  No team has had more instances of games with 30 or fewer shots on goal than the Devils (25).  While ten of those instances have come on home ice, it has not been too much of a burden in terms of wins and losses being a result.  New Jersey is 6-3-1 in home games in which they recorded 30 or fewer shots.

3.  New Jersey might suffer from low scoring on their part, but they have not been able to consistently apply tight defense.  Only Colorado and Arizona have more losses this season by three or more goals than the nine such losses suffered by the Devils.

4.  The Gimmick win by the Devils over the Caps on Thursday night was the 14^th time in 36 games that a game was decided in extra time.  New Jersey has a record of 7-7 ion extra time games this season, the trick shot win over the Caps being the first time this season they won in the Gimmick on the road.

5.  The Devils are not among the better possession teams on home ice.  They rank 21^st in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (49.42 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey) and are 28^th in Corsi-for at fives when trailing on home ice (50.98 percent).

1.  Fifth goaltenders have faced at least one shot in the freestyle competition this season.  Braden Holtby ranks 48^th among that cohort in save percentage (.357).  He trails 47^th-ranked Peter Budaj by more than 100 percentage points (.462).  Let’s try to avoid this part of the game.

2.  On the other hand, Holtby ranks fifth in even-strength save percentage among 34 goaltenders facing at least 400 even-strength shots (.937).

3.  In their first 14 games this season, the Caps allowed eight power play goals in 41 shorthanded situations, an 80.5 percent penalty kill rate.  Over their last 20 games, the Caps have allowed eight power play goals, but in 72 shorthanded situations, an 88.9 percent penalty kill rate.  They have not allowed a power play goal in their last five games, their longest such streak of the season.

4.  There is a certain balance to the ice time the Caps have had at the player level.  No forward on the club is averaging as much as 19 minutes of total ice time per game (Alex Ovechkin: 18:45).  No forward is averaging less than ten minutes per game.

5.  The Caps are struggling in possession numbers on the road in an important respect.  While they are seventh overall in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (52.13 percent), they rank 26^th in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 when trailing in road games (50.31 percent).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New Jersey: Cory Schneider

Although his career has been split between the Vancouver Canucks and the New Jersey Devils, there is a hint of Olaf Kolzig in the career of Cory Schneider.  A 26^th-overall draft pick of the Canucks in 2004 (remember that Kolzig was a 19^th-overall pick of the Caps in 1989), it would be another four years until Schneider reached the NHL and didn;’t appear in more than 20 games in a season until six years after his draft year (while Kolzig reached the NHL sooner, relative to his draft year, it was seven years until he has a season with more than 20 appearances).  Schneider, like Kolzig, played for a club that reached a Stanley Cup final, but soon after, again like Kolzig, found himself toiling for a club that had seen better days.  

 Despite being among the most talented goalies in the game, this is where Schneider, the heir to Martin Brodeur, finds himself.  His numbers with the Devils (2.25/.921) are almost indistinguishable from those he posted with the Canucks (2.20/.927) but his win loss record in New Jersey (79-83-32) is far less successful than that which he had in Vancouver (55-26-8).  Such is the case with a team with scoring issues trying to bring along younger players.  But Schneider remains a formidable presence in goal, capable of stealing a game out from under an opponent.  On the other hand, there have been cracks in his armor lately.  In his last eight games, Schneider is 1-6-1, 3.61, .885, and he has allowed four or more goals six times in that span.  He is 3-5-2, 2.36, .915, with out shutout in 10 career appearances against the Caps.

Washington:  T.J. Oshie

Okay, so T.J. Oshie was stopped on a trick shot attempt on Thursday night, the first time in four attempts this season he was denied a score.  But what is of more concern is the goal scoring in the hockey portion of the game.  Since he had a pair of goals and a pair of assists in a 7-1 win over Pittsburgh on November 16^th, he is 2-1-3 in his last 11 games and is on a five-game streak without a point.  One gets the feeling he might be coming out of that funk, though.  What characterized the early stage of this slump was a lack of shots on goal.  After the Penguin game he has just seven shots on goal in five games.  However, he has 16 shots in his last six games, and has had shot totals increase on a game-to-game basis over his last five games (he had four shots on goal on Thursday against the Devils).  Oshie is 1-1-2, minus-1, in nine career games against the Devils.

In the end…

One has the uncomfortable sense that resourcefulness is going to be an issue that the Caps will need to address in the last half of the regular season and as they prepare for the playoffs.  When the Devils threw up a wall at the blue line or collapsed back to protect their net on Thursday night, the Caps seemed to have no answer.  The goal the Caps scored was of the shorthanded variety, not the product of well-implemented offense.  The Caps have too many tools and weapons to have this be a lingering problem, and it suggests that this is going to be a coaching issue as much as anything.  The first order of business in that regard is to take the lessons learned from Thursday and find ways to penetrate what is likely to be another case of stifling defense and boring strategy employed by the Devils.  The Caps need to find a way to impose their will on an opponent rather than settle into playing their game.

Capitals 3 – Devils 1

A ONE-Point Night -- Game 34: New Jersey Devils 2 - Washington Capitals 1 (OT/Gimmick)

For a game that had just two goals scored in the hockey portion of the contest, the Washington Capitals and the New Jersey Devils had their moments in the Devils’ 2-1 trick shot win.

The scoring was sparse, initiated by the Devils after a scoreless first period.  It was PA Parenteau doing the honors, taking advantage of a giveaway by Evgeny Kuznetsov out of his own corner, trying to find Dmitry Orlov with an ill-advised no-look pass.   The puck slid out to the high slot where Parenteau was filling in.  His shot appeared to nick Orlov on the way through, and it was just enough of a change in direction to elude goalie Braden Holtby to make it 1-0, just 1:05 into the second period.

It took the Caps until the third period to solve Devils goalie Keith Kinkaid, and it came while shorthanded.  It was the product of superb effort by Daniel Winnik to start and end the play, and by Jay Beagle to keep the play alive.  It started with Winnik collecting a loose puck at his own blue line and skating it up the right wing.  Winnik shielded the puck away from Adam Henrique as he closed on the net and managed to get a shot on Kinkaid.  As Kinkaid fought off the shot with his right pad, Beagle was closing on the left side.  He outdueled Yohann Auvitu for the puck, and from his knees he found Winnik at the top of the crease.  Winnik’s first whack at the puck was stopped by Kinkaid, but not the second one. Winnik slid the puck past Kinkaid’s right pad, and the score was tied, 1-1, 3:50 into the third period.

That would be all the scoring, though, and the game went to the freestyle competition.  T.J. Oshie and Evgeny Kuznetsov came up empty, while Mike Cammalleri and Jacob Josefson scored to give the Devils the extra standings point.

Other stuff…

-- The 44 shots on goal was a season high for the Caps, topping the 41 they recorded in on Opening Night in a 3-2 Gimmick loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins.  High shot volumes have not been the Caps’ friend this season.  With this loss, the Caps are 5-3-4 when recording 35 or more shots on goal.

-- It’s not often that any Capital record more shots on goal in a game than Alex Ovechkin, but it is very rare when three Caps do it.  Dmitry Orlov (6), Daniel Winnik (6), and Nicklas Backstrom (5) all had more shots on goal than Ovechkin (4).

-- Winnik’s six shots came in just 12:36 in ice time, and he managed to get all of his shot attempts on net.

-- The Caps had as many shots while shorthanded as the Devils had on their power play (4).

-- That Brooks Orpik was credited with five hits is not unusual.  That Evgeny Kuznetsov was credited with four is.

-- Coming into this game, the Caps were 9-0-1 when allowing one or no goals.  This made it two Gimmick losses in such situations, their first this season on home ice.

-- All of a sudden, the power play has gone cold again.  After recording power play goals in five straight games and seven of eight contests, the Caps extended their current drought on the man advantage to four straight games, going 0-for-4 against New Jersey.

-- Meanwhile, the penalty killers are doing just fine.  After shutting out the Devils on four man advantages, the Caps have run off five straight games without allowing a power play goal (15-for-15) and seven of their last eight games (27-for-28).

-- This was the sixth time in 16 appearances on home ice that Braden Holtby allowed one or fewer goals this season.  He is 10-5-1, 1.81, .928, with three shutouts on home ice.

-- The loss dropped the Caps to 4-5-3 in the Metropolitan Division.

In the end…

There was a glass-half-full/glass-half-empty quality to this game.  In the full half of the glass was getting 44 shots on goal.  In the empty half was Keith Kinkaid seeing first shots all too clearly and the Caps not doing, or being prevented from doing much about getting to rebounds.  The Devils played to keep shooting lanes clear for Kinkaid to focus on the puck while boxing out Caps from setting screens or jumping on loose pucks.  For a team as offensively-challenged as the Devils (27^th in scoring offense) and missing Taylor Hall to boot, it would seem to be the style that gives them the best chance to win.  The Caps did not do enough to shake the Devils out of their protect-the-house style, making a 44-shot volume seem more impressive than it was.  The Caps will get a chance to show if they learned anything when they face the Devils in the back half of the home and home on Saturday afternoon.