The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 52: Golden Knights at Capitals, February 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take a break from their Metropolitan Division-loaded schedule on Sunday afternoon when they host the Vegas Golden Knights at Capital One Arena.  The contest is the only one for the Caps in a five-game stretch in which they face an opponent outside their own division.

This game will end the season series for these clubs, unless of course they meet in the Stanley Cup final.  The Golden Knights won the first meeting, jumping out to a 3-0 lead before the game was 15 minutes old and holding off the Caps to skate off with that margin at game’s end.

Vegas is coming to town to play their fourth game of a six-game road trip, their longest since a six-game trip in late October and early November.  If you are looking back to that trip for some inkling of what might happen here, the Golden Knights lost five of six games on that trip (1-4-1).  They have already done better on this trip, winning two of their first three games, although they did lose on Friday night to the Minnesota Wild, 5-2.

Vegas has a team of well-known goal scorers.  OK, James Neal might be the only one.  But if one were to ask, “which Golden Knight leads the team in goals scored on the road,” how many names would you go through before settling on Erik Haula?  Yes, that Erik Haula, the seventh-round draft pick of the Minnesota Wild in 2009 out of Shattuck St. Mary’s (you know, the team that Penguin played on).  Of his career-high 19 goals so far this season, he has 12 on the road, including one in each of the first three games of this current road trip.  Haula has been a rather consistent performer over his career on a home-vs.-road basis.  He is 32-34-66 in 158 career home games with Minnesota and Vegas, and he is 30-32-62 in 155 career road games.  None of those goals, however, home or road, have come at the expense of the Caps.  Haula is 0-0-0, minus-2, in seven career games against Washington.

Defenseman Nate Schmidt has as many goals on the road this season (three), and almost as many assists (12) and points (15) on the road as he compiled in a full season overall as a member of the Washington Capitals (3-14-17 last season).  The odd statistic is one that might be (at least what Caps fans might hope) is the canary in the coal mine.  Schmidt is plus-12 at home this season, but he is minus-1 on the road.  If you adhere to the Alex Ovechkin “Pool Party Theory” of why the Golden Knights are so successful at home, then Schmidt’s difference in home and road plus-minus might make a little more sense.  Still, Schmidt and his ever-smiling face are having a fine year.  He is tied for second among the team’s defensemen in goals (four, trailing Colin Miller’s seven), second in assists (18, trailing Miller’s 21), and second in points (22, trailing Miller’s 28).  He is one of three Vegas defensemen with a plus-minus in double digits (plus-11, trailing Deryk Engelland’s plus-14 and Brayden McNabb’s plus-13), and he is the only Vegas defenseman averaging more than 20 minutes per game in ice time (22:29).  He and Miller are the only Golden Knight defensemen to appear in all 51 games this season.  He did not record a point in the teams’ earlier meeting this season, his only career appearance against the Caps.

Malcolm Subban got the call and allowed five goals to the Wild in Vegas’ 5-2 loss in Minnesota on Friday night, meaning that the Caps are likely to see an old friend and antagonist on Sunday.  If Marc-Andre Fleury gets the call on Sunday, it will be his 38^th career regular season game against the Caps, passing Henrik Lundqvist and tying him with Roberto Luongo for second place among active goalies in games against the Caps (Cam Ward has faced the Caps 41 times).  Only Ward among active goalies has faced the Caps more often in Washington (21 times) than Fleury (Sunday would be his 20^th appearance against the Caps in DC). 

In his first year in Las Vegas after 13 years in Pittsburgh, Fleury might be having a career year, at least numbers-wise.  His 1.79 goals against average is half a goal per game better than his next best (2.29 in 2015-2016) and ranks second among 38 goalies with at least 1,000 minutes of ice time.  His .942 save percentage is more than 20 points over his next best (.921 in 2015-2016) and is currently second in that same group of goalies this season.  And, despite missing 25 games to a concussion earlier this season, he has not allowed more than three goals in a game in almost four months, not since he gve up six to the Detroit Red Wings, not coincidentally, the game in which he likely sustained that concussion.  Since returning to the lineup he is 11-3-2, 1.61, .946, with two shutouts, and only three times in those 16 games did he allow as many as three goals.  By the way, that game against the Red Wings is the only one among 20 games Fluery has played this season in which his game save percentage was under .900.  He is 21-12-2 (two no-decisions), 2.53, .915, with four shutouts in his career against the Caps.

1.  No Western Conference team has played fewer games against the Metropolitan Division than Vegas (nine, tied with the Winnipeg Jets through Friday night).  Still, no Western Conference team has fewer standings points earned against the Metro than Vegas (11), except for the Edmonton Oilers (10 in 12 games).

2.  Vegas had the best record in the league when trailing after one period (6-5-3/.428).  They also have the best record in the league when trailing after two periods (5-7-1/.385).

3.  If Vegas scores first, book it.  They have the best record in the league when scoring first, losing just once in 23 games when they did so (22-1-0).

4.  Vegas has out-shot opponents 33 times in 51 games, and they have the most wins in the league when doing so (24 wins).

5.  The Golden Knights like open ice.  No team has more goals at 3-on-3 than Vegas (seven).

1.  The Caps have 18 players in double digits in points so far this season.  They had 19 all of last year.  If they get a 19^th, it is almost surely going to be Brooks Orpik, who has eight points (all assists).

2.  The Caps have 15 different players with game-winning goals so far. They had 17 all of last season. 

3.  Winning games when trailing after one period is a relatively rare occurrence in the NHL – no team has a winning record when doing so – but the Caps do it more often than most.  They have the third-best record in the league when trailing after 20 minutes (5-9-0/.357).

4.  When the Caps lost to the Penguins, 7-4, on Friday night, it was their ninth loss by three or more goals this season.  They had eight such games all of last season.

5.  Washington has lost only four times this season when out-shooting the opposition, tied for fewest losses in the league (with Nashville).  Then again, the Caps have out-shot opponents only 16 times in 51 games.  Only the Anaheim Ducks have fewer such games (15).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Vegas: Jonathan Marchessault

With 20 letters, Jonathan Marchessault might have the longest name in the league (it used to be longer: Jonathan Audy-Marchessault, but he dropped the “Audy” in 2013).  But he has demonstrated himself to be an adept offensive player who perhaps does not get the credit he deserves.  It started in junior.  In four years with the Quebec Remparts in the QMJHL, he raised his goal-scoring from 10 to 18 to 30, and finally to 40 in his last season.  League general managers were unimpressed.  He was not drafted.  He signed a pro contract with the Connecticut Whale in the AHL, where he played for a season (24 goals in 76 games) before signing as a free agent by the Columbus Blue Jackets in July 2012. 

He played only two games for the Blue Jackets before he was traded in March 2014 to the Tampa Bay Lightning.  He did play 47 games over two seasons in Tampa before moving across the Peninsula to the Florida Panthers as a free agent in July 2016.  There, he exploded for 30 goals in 75 games, more than tripling his NHL total to date (eight in 49 games over three seasons).  Despite the leading the Panthers in goal-scoring and being just 26 years old, the Panthers left him exposed in the expansion draft, where he was taken by Vegas.  Here is a guy who has performed for the most part very well in terms of putting up numbers, all the way back to junior, but he just has not seemed to inspire the confidence of his front office managers quite enough to make a long term investment in him, at least until he got to Nevada.  Washington sports fans might look at him as hockey’s equivalent to Kirk Cousins.  Marchessault is 0-3-3 even, in seven career games against the Caps.

Washington: Brett Connolly

Last season, Brett Connolly found his goal scoring touch, posting a career high of 15 goals in 66 games in his first season with the Capitals.  Apparently, it was no fluke.  In just 42 games so far this season he is on the verge of matching, if not surpassing that total with 13 goals to date.  His profile looks a bit different this year with nine even strength and four power play goals on his ledger after recording 14 of his 15 goals last season at even strength.  He has been in an odd sort of pattern lately.  Ove his last dozen games he has not gone more than two without a goal.  Seeing as how he is without a goal in his last two contests, he could be due for one against the Golden Knights.  And, given his efficiency, it is not a stretch to think he could add to his goal total.  Among players appearing in at least 20 games this season, Connolly leads the league in shooting percentage (28.3 percent).  It is something that has characterized his play with the Caps over two seasons, posting a 22.0 percent shooting mark in 108 games.  What Connolly did not do in the teams’ first meeting in December was record a shot on goal.  He, like the rest of the Caps, will be looking for his first career point against the Golden Knights.

In the end…

In the teams’ first meeting in December, the Caps started slowly, and it did them in.  Down 3-0 before the game was 15 minutes old, the Caps were never really in it.  Given their slow starts in each of their last two games, falling behind by a pair of goals in each in the first period, it is something to be addressed.  Even if Vegas isn’t quite the team on the road that they are at home, speed doesn’t know time zones, and if the Caps let the Golden Knights dictate pace early, they could find themselves on the short end of the score early in the contest once more.  It is not a position from which teams emerge successfully too often in this league.  Punch these guys in the nose with an early goal or two of their own early on, and let’s see how they deal with it.

Capitals 4 – Golden Knights 2

A NO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 51: Penguins 7 - Capitals 4

Click…

It was like taking a another picture for the family album from hell.  The hell that is the Capitals-Penguins rivalry.  The Washington Capitals fell behind by two goals in the first period for a second straight game and came back from that deficit for a second straight game.  But this was not the Philadelphia Flyers the Caps were playing, a team they would beat despite the early deficit.  This was a deeper, more skilled, more confident (especially when playing the Caps) team on its own ice, and the Caps fell away as the Pittsburgh Penguins skated to a 7-4 win at PPG Arena in what was a “Pretty Preposterous Game.”

Barely two minutes into the game, the Penguins had a lead.  Riley Sheahan skated the puck around the back of the net, and with Capitals galore looking at Sheahan, he found Phil Kessel at the back door for a tap in goal on the far side to the right of goalie Braden Holtby.  Late in the period the Pens had their 2-0 lead on a rookie error.  Christian Djoos took a pass from Evgeny Kuznetsov at the top of his own left wing circle as the Caps were setting for a move up ice.  Djoos looked over his options and dialed up “pass the puck up the middle.”  Bad move.  He put it right on the stick of Carl Hagelin, and Hagelin had an easy time of skating in and beating Holtby at the 15:50 mark to give Pittsburgh a two-goal lead.

It might have remained that way going into the first intermission, but with less than two minutes left in the period, Alex Ovechkin halved the lead.  Ovechkin took a long pass from Djoos at the red line along the left wing wall.  He skated the puck into the offensive zone, treated Kris Letang like a swinging screen door, curled in and beat goalie Matt Murray from the top of the blue paint to make it 2-1 with just 1:50 left in the period.

Pittsburgh regained the two-goal lead in the first minute of the second period.  On a power play that carried over from the first period, the Penguins worked the triangle play that the Caps work so well.  From the top of the right wing faceoff circle, Evgeni Malkin fed the puck low to Sidney Crosby, who fed it out between the hash marks to Patric Hornqvist for a one-timer that beat Holtby 26 seconds into the period to make it 3-1.

The Caps came back to tie the game, though.  Dmitry Orlov got the Caps back within a goal in the fourth minute of the period.  Lars Eller backed the puck down the right side in the offensive zone and found Orlov stepping across the blue line.  Orlov took advantage of open ice to step up and lean into a shot that beat goalie Matt Murray cleanly to make it 3-2 at the 3:08 mark.

Kuznetsov tied the game mid-way through the period.  It was a bit of Harlem Globetrotter work on the part of the Caps, starting with Kuznetsov taking a floater pass from John Carlson and going behind the back to lay the puck out in front of him.  He skated it in, lost it at the top of the right wing circle, and then collected it again along the wall.  He fed Alex Ovechkin for a shot that was blocked into the air.  Tom Wilson dove and got his hand on the puck, which might have been the basis for a hand pass, except Malkin got his stick on the puck just before Kuznetsov swooped in and swept it past Murray at the 11:57 mark.

The teams traded goals in the second minute of the third period, Malkin putting back his own rebound of a shot 61 seconds into the period.  Ovechkin tied the game 49 seconds later, taking advantage of Kuznetsov’s keen eye.  Kuznetsov skated the puck down the right wing wall, and after stopping at the far hash marks, he spied Ovechkin all alone across the ice in his office.  Ovechkin’s one-timer from the left wing circle beat Murray to the near side inside the post, and it was 4-4, 1:50 into the period.

After that came the deluge.  The Penguins scored three goals less than four minutes apart, two on power plays – Bryan Rust, Kessel (his second of the game), and Malkin (his second of the game) – to end the competitive portion of the contest. 

Other stuff…

-- If there is one disturbing fact coming out of this game, it is that the Caps suddenly can’t keep the puck out of their own net on this ice sheet.  This is the third time in the last four games at PPG Arena that the Caps allowed six or more goals after not having allowed as many as six on it since January 2006.

-- Braden Holtby was once a Penguin killer.  In his first 11 career appearances against Pittsburgh he was 5-6-0, 2.42, .925 with two shutouts, but that run ended with seven appearances over which he had a goals against average of 1.44 and a save percentage of .954 with those two shutouts.  In nine appearances since then, he is 3-3-2 (one no-decision), 3.53, .893, and he was pulled three times.

-- Perhaps the oddest thing about the league’s top goal scorer getting a multi-goal game is that even with securing his fifth multi-goal game of the season, Ovechkin still trails Sean Couturier, Anders Lee, and John Tavares, each with six.

-- With a three-point game, Ovechkin is also one behind the leader in games with three or more points this season.  Ovechkin had four, Blake Wheeler has five.

-- Dmitry Orlov had a goal and an assist for his first multi-point game of the season.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov (goal, assist) had his 12^th multi-point game of the season and second in three games.

-- The Penguins had three power play goals, the second time they pulled that off this season.  They had three power play goals on six chances in a 3-2 win over the Caps on October 11^th.  It was the third time this season that the Caps allowed an opponent three goals, allowing three on six chances to the Vancouver Canucks on October 26^th.

-- Unlucky?  The Caps allowed 13 shots on goal in each of the first, second, and third periods.

-- T.J. Oshie did not have a shot attempt in this game, one of three Caps to draw a blank (Brooks Orpik and Devante Smith-Pelly being the others).

-- John Carlson had something of an odd night.  Not bad, just odd.  A minutes-eater for much of the season, he finished with just 14:09 in even strength ice time.  Orpik (14:50), Orlov (20:19), and Matt Niskanen (20:45) had more, and Madison Bowey was close (14:06).

In the end…

Click… there’s the Penguins scoring early.  Click… there’s the Pens scoring on a giveaway.  Click… there’s the Pens scoring on a power play.  Click… and another power play.  Click… and another.

The Capitals had better find a way to control this team and, at the same time, stop shooting themselves in the foot.  Because this team looms in front of them once more, the annual obstacle to a deep playoff run, and it would seem for the moment that they have the Caps' penalty killing figured out.  It is as if the Penguins have figuratively chambered another round and pointed it at the Caps’ playoff hopes.

…click.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 51: Capitals at Penguins, February 2nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals have 50 games under their belts in the 2017-2018 season with 30 wins to show for it.  They will add to the former and look to add to the latter when they visit Pittsburgh to take on the Penguins in a Friday night “Metro Matchup” of some significance.

Washington will go into Pittsburgh with a six-point lead in the Metropolitan Division and two games in hand on the Penguins.  But they will do so against a team that is 9-3-0 in the 2018 portion of their schedule and playing the sort of hockey that propelled them to consecutive Stanley Cup championships over the past two seasons.

When the 2017 portion of the season ended, the Penguins were mired in seventh place in the eight-team Metropolitan Division.  Since then, their 9-3-0 record is best in the league, their power play (33.3 percent) is best in the league, only the San Jose Sharks (47 in 14 games) have more goals than the Penguins (45), and they have the fourth-best shot attempts-for percentage (53.16 percent; numbers from NHL.com).

“Explosive” would be the word to describe the Penguins on offense in the new year.  They have 11 different instances so far of a player recording three or more points in a game, none with more than Evgeni Malkin, who has four such games in the new year and leads the team with 12 goals in 12 games in 2018.  Malkin also happens to have 12 penalty minutes in those 12 games, adding to his sense of symmetry.  Malkin is moving up the rankings of Russian-born players in NHL history and is within sight of reaching another rung on that ladder.  Should he record a hat trick (heaven forbid), he would pass Vyacheslav Kozlov (356) for seventh place on the all-time list of Russian-born goal scorers.  If all three goals were to come on power plays, he would pass Alex Kovalev (133) for fifth place among Russian-born players in career power play goals scored.  Three power play points, and he would pass Alexander Mogilny (349) in career power-play points).  His chances of doing it?  Well, he has been a productive performer against the Caps, going 16-36-52, minus-1, in 38 career games against Washington.

Sidney Crosby leads the team in points in the new year (3-18-21, plus-6, in 12 games).  It is quite a turnaround from what for him was a lackluster 2017 portion of the schedule (14-21-35, minus-13, in 40 games).  He has been blanked on the score sheet just once in the 12 games played so far in 2018, that in a 4-0 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes on January 4^th.  Since then, Crosby has points in ten straight games, but maybe he’s getting worn out.  In the first five of those ten contests he recorded multi-point games, going 3-10-13 overall.  But in the most recent five games he has one multi-point game and is 0-7-7.  Crosby gets his points, but it might be keeping him from hitting the back of the net that will be key.  Pittsburgh is 12-2-1 in the 15 games in which he recorded a goal this season.  Then again, they are 14-5-0 when his points come solely from assists.  One thing the Caps will not want to see is Crosby celebrating his 400th career goal.  He has 399.  Crosby is 20-41-61, even, in 43 career games against the Caps.

The odd part about the scoring from the defense in the 2018 portion of the schedule is its balance.  Each of the seven defensemen to have dressed have points, but none have more than four in the 12 games played to date.  Three defensemen share that total, perhaps the most surprising being Jamie Oleksiak (2-2-4, plus-3).  Oleksiak came to the Penguins in a mid-December trade from the Dallas Stars for a conditional fourth-round pick in the 2019 draft.  He is among the biggest defensemen in the league at 6’7”/255 pounds, something of an anachronism in today’s smaller, speedier NHL.  He has struggled to find a permanent place in the league, never having dressed for more than half of his team’s games in any of his six NHL seasons (he dressed for 41 games last year with Dallas).  Although this season will be split between two teams, he does seem to be a certainty to set a personal record for games played, having dressed for 38 games with Dallas (21) and Pittsburgh (17).  Oleksiak has had limited exposure to the Caps, going without a point and plus-1 in three career games against Washington.

1.  In their nine wins since the calendar turned over, the Pens have wins of three or more goals in six of them.

2.  Pittsburgh has two or more power play goals in 13 games this season.  Five of them have come since the beginning of the new year.

3.  When the Penguins allowed two power play goals to San Jose in a 5-2 win over the Sharks on Tuesday, it broke a 28-game streak in which they did not allow an opponent multiple power play goals in a game (77-for-84 penalty killing/91.7 percent).

4.  Only the Florida Panthers have more instance this season with 40 or more shots on goal (14) than the Penguins (11).  The funny thing is, Pittsburgh has unremarkable success in those games (6-4-1).  On the other hand, allowing high shot volumes seems to matter a bit.  In eight games in which the Penguins allowed more than 35 shots, they are just 3-5-0.

5.  Teams can get under the skin of the Penguins.  In their 12 games so far in 2018 they have 44 minor penalties.  Only the Anaheim Ducks have more (46).

1.  Washington has compiled 274 minutes in penalties in road games this season.  That is fourth-highest in the league.  Forth of those minutes are from misconduct penalties, the Caps’ four infractions topped only by the Nashville Predators. With six of those on the road.

2.  The Caps might need to step up their road game performance.  Through Wednesday night’s games, their 11-8-4 record was ranked 16^th in the league.

3.  Washington has recorded 640 shots on goal in road games this season, last in the league.  They also have a shot differential in road contests of minus-127, or 5.5 shots per game.

4.  The Caps are the only team in the league with fewer than 300 blocked shots in road games this season (289).  The New York Rangers and Detroit Red Wings have the next fewest (311).

5.  Unblocked shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 in road games.  A long term, but let’s just say “Road Fenwick”… 45.32 percent.  Worst in the league (numbers from NHL.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Pittsburgh: Phil Kessel

No player in his draft class (2006) has appeared in more games or has more goals than Phil Kessel (884 games, 317 goals).  He is second overall in points (708).  And this is a draft class that includes Jonathan Toews, Jordan Staal, Nicklas Backstrom, Claude Giroux, and Brad Marchand.  Since he came into the league, only Alex Ovechkin has more goals scored per game in the postseason (0.47) than Kessel (0.44) among players appearing in at least 50 playoff contests.  And, there are the two Stanley Cups.  He has done rather well for himself.  This year, the word to best describe him might be “consistent.”  Only twice this season has Kessel gone as many as two straight games without a point, and he has points in 38 of the 52 games for which he has dressed, those 38 games with points recorded tied for most overall in the league with Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov.  Of particular concern for the Caps in this game is that he has been much more productive at home (14-22-36, plus-2, in 26 home games) than he has on the road (7-16-23, minus-10, in 26 road games), and he has been held off the score sheet entirely only four times in 26 home games this season (all of them, it turns out, losses).  If the Caps can get a lead and make head coach Mike Sullivan give him more minutes, that might be a good thing.  Pittsburgh is just 4-9-1 in 14 games this season in which Kessel logged more than 20 minutes of ice time.  In 41 career games against the Caps, Kessel is 9-18-27, minus-7.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin has led the league in power play goals, outright or tied with others, in each of the last five seasons coming into this one.  This year he is tied for fourth, and the slip in rankings, if it is that, might be a product of his power play production on the road.  He is without a power play strike over his last ten road games, not since he recorded one as part of a hat trick in a 4-2 win over the Maple Leafs in Toronto back on November 25^th.  It is one of just three power play goals scored by Ovechkin on the road so far this season and the only one he has in his last 18 road contests.  This might be an opportunity for Ovechkin to get back on track on the road, since the Penguins are something of a middle-of-the-road penalty killing group at home, just 81.6 percent for the season (16^th overall) and allowing three power play goals on ten chances in their last two home games.  In 50 career games against the Penguins, Ovechkin is 31-22-53, plus-13, 15 of those goals coming on power plays.

In the end…

No meeting of the Capitals and Penguins is “just another game.”  However, being too aware of the rivalry, and the attendant pomp and attention devoted to it can overwhelm early in games.  Balance that against the somnambulistic style employed by the Caps against the Philadelphia Flyers on Wednesday night when they fell behind, 2-0, and one hopes the Caps can find a middle path – focused, but not manic; calm, but not sluggish.  This will, however, be quite a challenge for the Caps, facing a team that has been steamrolling opponents for the most part since the first of the year. 

The Penguins’ recent record aside, a good bet here would be a close game.  In the Ovechkin/Crosby era, the teams have played 24 regular season games in Pittsburgh.  Half of them were one-goal decisions, half of those settled in extra time, the Caps with a 4-4-4 record in those 12 one-goal games.  After Friday night, make that “5-4-4.”

Capitals 3 – Penguins 2

A TWO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 50: Capitals 5 - Flyers 3

The Washington Capitals snapped a three-game home losing streak and started the post-All-Star Game break portion of their schedule on the right note on Wednesday night with a 5-3 win over the Philadelphia Flyers at Capital One Arena.

It did not look good early for the Caps, who fell behind by a pair of goals before the game was eight minutes old. In the game’s second minute, the Flyers broke smartly out of their own end, Wayne Simmonds and Nolan Patrick on a 2-on-1 rush with a sluggish Caps defense left in the offensive end. Simmonds carried the puck on the left side into the Caps’ end and freezing defender Brooks Orpik fed Nolan Patrick, who pulled the puck to his backhand and flipped a shot past goalie Braden Holtby before Alex Ovechkin could close the distance on the back check. The Flyers had a 1-0 lead just 78 seconds into the game.

Travis Konecny made it 2-0 by following up a play. Sean Couturier carried the puck through the right wing circle and around defenseman Christian Djoos on his way to the Caps’ net. His attempt was muffled, but Djoos got tangled up with Holtby, and Konecny filled in behind Couturier to chip the puck past the fallen Holtby, and it was 2-0 just 7:50 into the first period.

Thunder struck twice for the Caps in the space of less than a minute early in the second period in the form of Chandler Stephenson. The first goal started with what looked like a harmless feed up ice that Stephenson moved into the offensive and around the end boards. Lars Eller picked up the puck in the Olympia corner ahead of Robert Hagg and sent it to the front of the net. Goalie Michal Neuvirth did not defend the feed well, the puck bouncing off his left pad and into the blue paint where Stephenson was lurking. He jammed it under Neuvirth, and the Caps were within a goal at the 2:14 mark of the period.

On his next shift, Stephenson tied the game. Madison Bowey collected a loose puck in the faceoff circle to the right of Holtby in the defensive end and sent a long lead pass to Stephenson streaking through the neutral zone. He took it in stride just outside the Flyers’ blue line, broke in alone on Neuvirth, and slipped it under his pads to tie the game 3:01 into the period and just 47 seconds after his first goal.

Eleven minutes later, the Caps had the lead for good. On a power play, Lars Eller controlled the puck along the right wing boards where Nicklas Backstrom usually camped out. He patiently worked his way down the boards while looking for a passing lane. He found one, sending the puck to the front of the net where Andre Burakovsky got inside position on Brandon Manning, redirecting the Eller feed past Neuvirth to make it 3-2, Caps, 14:32 into the second period.

Washington struck again on a power play in the sixth minute of the third period. The Caps worked the triangle play starting with John Carlson walking the puck inside the blue line at the top of the offensive zone. He fed Evgeny Kuznetsov inside the top of the right wing circle, from where he slid down to the bottom of the circle to find a better passing angle. He slid the puck across to T.J. Oshie between the hash marks for a one timer that beat Neuvirth cleanly to give the Caps a 4-2 lead 5:28 into the period.

Devante Smith-Pelly extended the lead less than four minutes later. Christian Djoos led the Caps on a gang rush into the offensive zone and fed the puck across to Jay Beagle at the top of the left wing circle. Beagle returned the puck to Djoos for a one-timer that nicked Smith-Pelly on the way through, the puck redirected just enough to elude Neuvirth at the 9:06 mark to make it 5-3.

Philadelphia got some window dressing a little over a minute later when Jakub Voracek redirected an Ivan Provorov drive at the 10:40 mark. But that would be as close as the Flyers would get, the Caps skating off with a 5-3 win.

Other stuff…

-- The Caps closed January with a 6-2-2 record and reached the 30-win mark.

-- Andre Burakovsky broke a nine-game streak without a goal when he scored in the second period. It was his first goal on home ice this season in his 13th game at Capital One Arena. It was his first regular season goal on home ice in more than a year, since he potted one in a 5-0 win over the Flyers on January 15, 2017. He went 22 straight home games without a goal until his strike last night.

-- Chandler Stephenson scored on two consecutive shots on two consecutive shifts. The two shots – his only two for the game – tied a season high and doubled his goal total for the year.

-- Lars Eller had his second two-assist of the season and first at home. He had a pair of helpers in a 4-3 overtime win over the Stars in Dallas on December 19, 2017.

-- John Carlson had the other multi-point game for Washington, his sixth of the season. It was also his sixth two-assist game of the season.

-- The Caps spread the shots on goal around. Of their 25 shots, no Capital had more than two, but nine Capitals had that total.

-- They spread the points around, too. Ten skaters had at least one point.

-- This was the 16^th time this season in which neither Alex Ovechkin nor Nicklas Backstrom recorded a point.  It was the first time since December 12^th that they did so in a Caps win (a 5-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche), breaking a string of five losses in such games (0-2-3).  Overall, the Caps are 4-9-3 in such games.

-- Rough night for the top line of Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Tom Wilson.  They were on ice for the first and last Flyer goals to leave each with a minus-2 for the night.  They did not have an even strength point (Kuznetsov had a power play assist), they combined for just five shots on goal, and they had 15 shot attempts, almost half of them by Wilson (seven).  Nonetheless, despite being dominated early in the shooting statistics, the Caps finished with a 52-49 edge in shot attempts.

-- Odd Braden Holtby fact…this was the first time in his career that he allowed three or more goals to the Flyers and won.  He had been 0-4-4 in such games before last night.

In the end…

It was not pretty, for the most part, and the Caps looked flat out sleepy at times, but a win is a win is a win.  Getting the support from the secondary scorers, particularly Chandler Stephenson, who showed deft hands from in close, was welcome.  Between that, and getting a couple of struggling players going – Andre Burakovsky and T.J. Oshie – the outcome was a plus, too.  But falling behind by a pair of goals early is not a recipe for sustained success, especially against teams that do not have the goaltending issues the Flyers seem to have (Michal Neuvirth was returning after a bout of illness and felt woozy in the second period).  Still, the losing streak was snapped, and the first game after the All-Star Game break was a success in the standings, the Caps maintaining their six-point lead in the Metropolitan Division.  They get a chance to extend that lead over their nearest pursuer when they visit the Pittsburgh Penguins on Friday night.  They’d better be on their game.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 50: Flyers at Capitals, January 31st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The January portion of the regular season schedule comes to a close for the Washington Capitals on Wednesday night when they host the Philadelphia Flyers in a nationally-televised game at Capital One Arena. The Caps will be looking for a measure of revenge after dropping a 2-1 overtime decision on this same ice sheet just ten days previously.

The Flyers will be looking to resume the momentum that they built going into the All-Star Game break, going 8-2-0 in the ten games before the break. That 8-2-0 record tied the Boston Bruins and Calgary Flames for the best record in the league (16 standings points) since January 4th, when the Flyers embarked on their run.

Sean Couturier, who went into the Caps game back on January 21st as one of, if not the hottest player in in the league, has seen his goal-scoring dry up somewhat. While his total of eight goals over the Flyers’ last ten games still leads the team over that span, he is without a goal in his last four games. Yet he does have three assists over those four games to give him an 8-5-13, plus-5, scoring line over that ten-game span. He has been very much the go-to guy in this run, three of his eight goals being game-winners (one of them in overtime), his 27.6 percent shooting percentage best on the team, his 58.3 percent winning percentage on faceoffs leading the club, his 2:15 in shorthanded ice time per game leading all Flyer forwards, and his 21:36 per game in ice time also leading the club’s forwards. Couturier is 6-6-12, plus-5, in 23 career games against the Capitals.

Shayne Gostisbehere is rebounding from a disappointing sophomore season with a year that more closely resembles his rookie season in which he was 17-29-46, plus-8, in 64 games. In 45 games so far this season he is 9-24-33, plus-1, in 45 games. This puts him on a pace to finish 16-42-58, plus-2. He has slowed a bit lately, though, with just one point in his last six games (assist). Getting on the scoreboard appears to matter to the Flyers, for when Gostisbehere does record a point, the Flyers are 15-5-4 this season, and they have lost just once in regulation when he recorded a goal (5-1-2). He has struggled a bit with consistency, at least on a month-to-month basis. After a 1-12-13, plus-3, in 11 games in October, he was 2-4-6, minus-4, in 11 November games. Then he was 5-5-10, plus-2, in 13 games in December, but thus far in January he is 1-3-4, even, in 10 games. Gostisbehere is 0-6-6, even, in nine career games against Washington.

The Flyers do not often have a difficult choice to make in goal, at least not one based of good performances, but such might be the case for this first game coming out of the All-Star Game break. Brian Elliott has 46 saves on 49 shots (.939 save percentage) in his last two appearances before the break, one of them a 27-save effort in the 2-1 overtime win over the Caps on January 21st. It is an improvement over his previous seven appearances in which he topped .900 in save percentage just once (.861 overall despite going 4-3-0 in those games). If anything, Elliott seems to be the designated “road” goalie at the moment, his last four appearances and eight of his last 11 coming outside of Philadelphia. He does have a better save percentage on the road (.917) than he does at home (.896), although his road record (10-6-4 in 20 games) is not much different from his home record (9-5-3 in 18 appearances). The odd statistic here is that Elliott has allowed five shorthanded goals this season, all of them on the road. He also allowed 16 of his 27 power play goals against on the road, a 21-11 difference in special team goals allowed on the road versus at home. Elliott is 8-5-0, 3.05, .895, in 15 career appearances against the Caps.

On the other hand, Michal Neuvirth has been statistically superior in the Flyers’ 8-2-0 run, going 3-1-0, 2.08 (more than a goal better than Elliott’s 3.18), .926. What he has not had is a lot of work on the road, appearing in only four games away from Philadelphia (1-2-0, 2.14, .927, one shutout). Only one of his last nine appearances has been on the road, and that was just a 20-minute stint in which he stopped all eight shots in a 5-1 loss to the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden on January 16th. His last decision on the road came on November 2nd, when he stopped all 33 shots he faced in a 2-0 blanking of the St. Louis Blues. The former Capital netminder is 1-1-0, 3.14, .891, in three career appearances against his old club.

The goaltender situation is complicated further by having both goaltenders nursing ailments.  Elliott was listed day-to-day with a lower body injury, and Neuvirth was reported to have a stomach virus.  General Manager Ron Hextall said, “I’m hoping both are able to play.”  If neither could, the duties might fall to Anthony Stolarz, the club’s top prospect goalie in the AHL.  However, he had surgery on the same knee twice in five months and has not played this season.  Alex Lyon and Dustin Tokarski have split duties with Lehigh Valley, the Flyers’ affiliate in the AHL.

1.  Even when a team is going well, you get hints that the run might be coming to an end. Consider the Flyers’ 8-2-0 run of late. They started it with four straight wins, outscoring opponents by a 21-11 margin, all of the wins by multi-goal margins. However, in going 4-2-0 in their last six contests, they have been outscored by opponents, 16-13, and three of their wins came in overtime. Both of their losses were by 5-1 margins (to the Rangers and to Tampa Bay).

2.  Perhaps one factor in the Flyers’ success of late is the time spent on special teams. They have spent 54:10 over their last ten games on the man advantage, and their 28.1 percent power play conversion rate is fifth in that span. And, although their penalty kill over those ten games is just 74.1 percent (21st over that period), they have spent just 42:50 killing penalties, and they have a plus-1 special teams goal differential (nine power play goals scored plus a shorthanded goal, seven power play goals allowed plus two shorthanded goals allowed).

3.  The Flyers have picked up their pace in taking penalties. They have 100 penalty minutes over their last ten games, almost half of them accounted for by three players: Scott Laughlin (21), Wayne Simmonds (12), and Michael Raffl (11).

4.  One luxury the Flyers have had in their 8-2-0 run is spreading time out among their defensemen. Of the six defensemen to play in at least nine of the ten games, none have averaged more than 18:43 in even strength ice time (Ivan Provorov) and none have less than 15:19 in even strength ice time (Brandon Manning).

5.  You wonder how the Flyers have cobbled together this 8-2-0 run. Not 5-on-5 shot attempt shares (50.46 percent overall/14th in that span), not 5-on-5 zone start shares (45.36 percent/25th), not 5-on-5 shooting percentage (7.5 percent/14th), not 5-on-5 save percentage (.925/17th), and their 5-on-5 PDO is exactly 1000 (all numbers from NHL.com).

1.  The Caps go into this game with a three-game home losing streak (0-2-1), tying their longest of the season (October 10-21). The difference is that all three of the losses in the earlier streak were in regulation.

2.  Four of the Caps’ last eight home games ended in extra time – three in overtime (two wins, one loss) and one in a Gimmick (a win).

3.  The Caps are three points away from having six defensemen with double digits in points. Christian Djoos (3-6-9) needs one point to get there, and Brooks Orpik (0-8-8) needs two. In other defenseman double digit milestone news, if Djoos takes a penalty, the Caps will have six defensemen with double digits in penalty minutes (Djoos has eight).

4.  Speaking of defensemen, John Carlson has 17 of the 18 points recorded on the power play by Capitals’ defensemen this season (3-14-17). Dmitry Orlov has the other point, an assist.

5.  If the Caps take a lead to the first intermission, you might be able to turn in early. Only the New York Islanders (14-0-0) have a better record than Washington when taking a lead after 20 minutes (18-0-1/.947).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Philadelphia: Michael Raffl

Only two players born in Austria have more games played in the NHL than the Flyers’ Michael Raffl (318): Thomas Vanek (934) and Michael Grabner (522). https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/birthplaces.cgi?country=AT&province=&state= He is also third on that list in points (108), trailing Vanek (732) and Grabner (239), although he could be caught by a big game from the Caps’ Andre Burakovsky (104 points). Granted, the list of players born in Austria is not a big one, but Raffl has carved out a solid career over the last five years in Philadelphia, which isn’t bad for an undrafted free agent signed by the Flyers in 2013.

What he has been unable to do, though, is to recapture the level of production in his sophomore season in 2014-2015 when he had 21 goals in 67 games. He had just 21 goals in 134 games over the following two seasons. This year, he seems to have at least taken a step toward that higher level of production with nine goals in 49 games, topping his eight-goal total of last season in 52 games. He has been chipping in some secondary scoring in the Flyers’ 8-2-0 record over their last ten games with points in five of the games (3-2-5), and his plus-7 over that span is best on the team. In 17 career games against the Capitals, Raffl is 3-3-6, plus-1.

Washington: Madison Bowey

The Capitals had hopes this season for rookie defensemen Madison Bowey and Christian Djoos, the former a right-handed defenseman and the latter a left-handed shot.  These were to be the first in the next generation of defensemen to take their place with the Caps.  At the moment, though, their respective handedness has some relevance as the rumor mill starts to grind in earnest with the trading deadline approaching.  One such line of rumorizing has former Capital Mike Green – a right-handed shot currently playing for the Detroit Red Wings – as a possible target for the Caps.  This could conceivably bump Bowey to the press box, much as the Caps’ acquisition of Kevin Shattenkirk last season at the deadline pushed Nate Schmidt out of the lineup for stretches.

Last season, Shattenkirk was a luxury on a loaded team (a fat lot of good it did, though).  This season, Green – or a similar defenseman – might be a necessity.  It’s not that Bowey has been bad, but he has not been able to provide consistency (not unusual for a rookie) and has had limited minutes (13:30 per game).  One might argue that Bowey's numbers suffer from his pairing for large chunks of minutes with Brooks Orpik, but perhaps the question and concern going forward is one of whether the Caps want to put two rookies – Bowey and Djoos – in the playoff crucible this spring.  If the Caps were a middling contender, a club that might make the lower half of the postseason draw but likely a one-and-done team if they did make it, then giving both experience might not be as much a concern.  But the Caps are a division leader, by the second-largest margin of the four division leaders, and might be closer to making a deep postseason run than folks might have thought back in October.  It makes adding a piece like Green, perhaps at the expense of Bowey this season, something to consider.  Bowey has picked up his scoring pace a bit in recent games with four points in his last ten games (all assists; he is looking for his first NHL goal), and he is plus-2 in his last eight games after not posting a plus game in 21 consecutive games (minus-5) dating back to November 12^th.  He does not have a point and is minus-3 in two games against the Flyers this season.

In the end…

The Metropolitan Division is cannibalizing one another. Seven teams are separated by just six points in their intra-divisional records at the All-Star Game break:

This game will open a stretch in which the Caps play four division opponents over their next five games – the Flyers, at Pittsburgh against the Penguins, and after a home date against the Vegas Golden Knights a home-and-home set of games against the Columbus Blue Jackets. If we can dream a bit, a sweep of those divisional contests would all but assure the Caps of a playoff spot if not the top spot in the division. Conversely, losing all four would make a tight division that much tighter just before the Caps go off on a four-game road trip in mid-February that will start a stretch run in which 16 of the Caps’ last 27 games are played on the road. It puts a premium on winning games like Wednesday night’s contest against the Flyers.

Capitals 4 – Flyers 3

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 17

The Washington Capitals had a light work load in Week 17, just two games for the second consecutive week, but it did not keep them from returning to their winning ways after a winless Week 16.  A win over the Florida Panthers gave the Caps something to build on as they headed into the All-Star Game break.  However, it came at a cost with one of their best players sustaining an injury that could leave the Caps short for a while.

Record: 1-0-1

Week 17 was the flip side of Week 16, both weeks including a loss in overtime, but the Caps won a game in the latest week, reversing their loss in regulation recorded in Week 16.  All in all, it is hard to get too irritated with the Caps’ 1-1-2 record over the past two weeks.  It has to be difficult to sustain any rhythm or high-motor when you play only four games over a 13 day period with a five-day break for the league-mandated bye and another three full days between games before the pre-All-Star Game finale.

The best part of winning the last game before the All-Star Game break and finishing the last two weeks with that 1-1-2 record is that the Caps take a six-point lead over the rest of the Metropolitan Division into the break, and they hold two games in hand on the suddenly streaking Pittsburgh Penguins, tied with the Columbus Blue Jackets for the second spot in the division.

As the Caps go into the All-Star Break, there is an oddly pleasant surprise about their record – its consistency.  First, consider that the team lost Matt Niskanen for 14 games, T.J. Oshie for six games to injury, and have had a lot of inconsistency from Andre Burakovsky in addition to injury that kept him out for 25 games.  And yet, if you look at the Caps in ten-game segments going into the break (nine games in the last segment), their records are:

• 4-5-1 / 9 points
• 6-4-0 / 12 points
• 8-2-0 / 16 points
• 6-2-2 / 14 points
• 5-2-2 / 12 points (nine games)

They have the third best record in the league since November 1^st (24-9-4/52 points) trailing only the Nashville Predators (24-7-5/53 points) and Boston Bruins (25-7-5/55 points).  Their consistency and continuing success will be tested, though, with Evgeny Kuznetsov suffering what appeared to be a groin injury in the Caps’ 4-2 win over Florida to end the week.  His absence will be keenly felt and will test the Caps’ ability to close ranks and move forward.

Offense: 2.50 /game (season: 3.00 /game, rank: T-9th)

Two games, five total goals.  Same as Week 16.  If there was concern about that, it was that the Caps scored only two even strength goals for the week, one by Alex Ovechkin and one by John Carlson.  They did get points from 11 different skaters, so in that respect there was a measure of balance.  Ovechkin (three), Carlson (two), and Evgeny Kuznetsov (two) were the Caps with multi-point weeks.

But it was not an especially efficient week for the Caps.  This has been a very discriminating team this season in terms of shots, ranking 31^st in the league in shots per game at week’s end.  They did, however, record 74 shots in the two games in Week 17, including 46 in the 4-2 win over the Florida Panthers to close the week.  The 6.8 percent shooting percentage was a far cry, though, from the 10.3 percent for the season.

The shots for the week extended what, for the Caps this season, is an odd streak.  In outshooting the Philadelphia Flyers (28-23) and the Panthers (46-34), the Caps have now gone four games without being out-shot, their longest such streak of the season.

The Caps have yet to cut loose, though, so far in the 2018 portion of the season.  They did score four goals against the Panthers, but they have yet to score more than that in regulation in nine games so far in 2018 (they did score a fifth goal in a 5-4 overtime win over Carolina in the first game of the new year).

Defense: 2.00 / game (season: 2.80 /game, rank: 14th)

The Caps have struggled at times with the volume of shots allowed, having allowed teams 35 or more shots 17 times going into Week 17.  They came out of the week without adding to that total, holding Philadelphia (23) and Florida (34) to a total of 57 shots.  In fact, that made four straight games that the Caps held teams under 35 shots, their longest streak of such games since mid-November, when they had an eight-game streak.  The Caps might finally be finding their defensive posture as a result.  Not since they allowed four goals to the Carolina Hurricanes in the first game of the calendar year have the Caps allowed four goals in regulation.

What was just as encouraging was the shot attempts allowed at 5-on-5.  The Caps allowed just 71 in the two games.  It was what drove a week in which the Caps shot attempts-for percentage was a very good 56.97 percent overall (numbers from NHL.com) and an even better 60.14 percent in close situations.

Goaltending: 2.00 / .930 (season: 2.63 / .917 / 1 shutout)

Braden Holtby got both starts in Week 17, and it was a very good week.  Holtby (and backup Philipp Grubauer) have had to deal with heavier and higher quality shot volumes this season, and it shows in the overall numbers (although Grubauer is particularly a victim of low goal support).  With a bit lower shot volume to contend with, Holtby resembled more the goalie Caps fans saw the past two years. 

What was noteworthy about the week for Holtby was how he closed out games in regulation.  He stopped all 18 third period shots he faced in the two games for the week.  Not that he was a slouch in the first periods of games, where he stopped 18 of the 19 shots he faced (.947 save percentage).  It might have been a great week had he turned away the only shot he faced in overtime, but Travis Konecny scored on the only shot the Flyers recorded in overtime in the first game of the week to take a 2-1 decision.

Power Play: 3-for-9 / 33.3 percent (season: 20.0 percent, rank: T-14th)

The Caps had their best week –efficiency-wise – since Week 2.  With a 33.3 percent power play on a 3-for-9 week, they matched the 33.3 percent they had on 5-for-15 in the second week of the season.  The three goals were scored by three different players – Ovechkin, Brett Connolly, and Nicklas Backstrom.  Eight different players had power play points, Ovechkin having two as the only multi-point player with the man advantage.

When the Caps scored a pair of power play goals against Florida, it was the first time the Caps scored more than one power play goal on the road (two) since they had a pair in 4-3 win in Detroit over the Red Wings on October 20th.  It broke a 17-game road streak without scoring a pair of power play goals (5-for-47 over that streak – 10.6 percent).

The big thing for the power play in Week 17 was the shot volume.  Washington recorded two goals on 19 shots on goal against the Panther penalty killers in 9:24 of power play time on their way to finishing the week with three goals on 22 shots in just 14:08 of ice time.  On the other hand, the Caps did allow the Panthers four shots while shorthanded, which it a bit too loose for comfort on the man advantage.

Penalty Killing: 7-for-7 / 100.0 percent (season: 80.2 percent, rank: 18th)

Week 17 was the sixth time that the Caps spent a perfect week killing penalties and their fourth in the last nine weeks, over which they are 59-for-70 (84.3 percent), an improvement over their full season penalty killing rate that was still under 80 percent overall before Week 17 started.  The perfect week made the Caps 13-for-14 over the past two weeks (92.9 percent).

The Caps were efficient as well as effective.  They allowed the Flyers and Panthers only 11 shots on goal in 14 minutes of shorthanded ice time in killing seven power plays.

Faceoffs: 53-for-120 / 44.2 percent (season: 50.8 percent, rank: 12th)

It was not a good week for the Caps in the circle.  They were under 50 percent in both games, and they were under 50 percent for the week in all three zones.  The best they managed was being one-under in the offensive zone for the week (18-for-37 (48.6 percent).  Fortunately, the worst was left in the neutral zone, where they were 18-for-44 (40.9 percent).

Individually, Nicklas Backstrom had a good week going 16-for-25 overall (64.0 percent) including 7-for-9 in the offensive zone (77.8 percent).  No other Capital taking ten or more draws was over 50 percent, and as a group, Lars Eller, Jay Beagle, and Evgeny Kuznetsov were 33-for-82 (40.2 percent).

Goals by Period:

The Caps managed comparatively solid work holding teams off the scoreboard early.  They did allow one first period goal in two games, but that brought their total of first period goals allowed this season to 37, ten fewer than what they have allowed in the second periods of games and 12 fewer than in the third periods of games.  Those 37 goals allowed is now tied for tenth-fewest in the league.

The Caps also had a positive goal differential in the second periods of games this week, a sticking point for the team from time to time this season.  It narrowed their overall second period goal differential to minus-1.

In the end…

That the Caps are six points clear of the rest of the division at the All-Star break, despite losing significant players (Matt Niskanen, T.J. Oshie, Andre Burakovsky) for large parts of the schedule is no small feat.  To do so in arguably the toughest division in the league and to do so on pace to finish with 49 wins and 105 points is perhaps even more impressive.

Week 17 had that blemish of an overtime loss to a division rival, but overall they were stingy on defense, had better possession numbers, dominated shot totals, and had very good special teams play.

And, with just two games in Week 17, the Caps showed enough discipline and focus to earn points in three of four games played over a 13-day period.  It was the sort of scheduling quirk that could have resulted in a loss of focus and a bleeding away of the division lead.  

The Caps will start their rush to the trading deadline in a good position, but there will be a challenge right out of the All-Star break.  With four of their next six games to be played on home ice, and four of those six games against division rivals (Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and a home-and-home against Columbus), the object will be to put some additional distance between themselves and the rest of the division before they embark on a four-game road trip in the middle of February.  And they will have to do so wondering to the extent Evgeny Kuznetsov will be available.  Nevertheless, Week 17 set the Caps up to address that challenge from a position of advantage.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Alex Ovechkin (2-1-3, plus-1, 13^th 30-goal season, 500^th assist, 12 shots on goal, 17 shot attempts, 4 hits)
• Second Star: Braden Holtby (1-0-1, 2.00, .930)
• Third Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (0-2-2, even)

A TWO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 49: Capitals 4 - Panthers 2

The Washington Capitals came from behind twice, and then they pulled away from the Florida Panthers on Thursday night, taking a 4-2 decision in their last game before the All-Star Game break in what was a milestone night for their captain.

Denis Malgin opened the scoring for the Panthers mid-way through the first period. The teams battled for the puck along the left wing wall in the Capitals’ end before it squirted out into the faceoff circle. Malgin corralled it, and then he stepped around defenseman Christian Djoos to get room to rip a wrist shot that beat goalie Braden Holtby at the 11:02 mark.

The Caps tied it late in the first period on a power play. From the left point, Alex Ovechkin sent the puck deep to Evgeny Kuznetsov in the opposite faceoff circle. Kuznetsov sent a pass to the top of the crease where Nicklas Backstrom was filling in, and Backstrom redirected the feed past Harri Sateri at the 17:25 mark to make it a 1-1- game heading into the first intermission.

The Panthers regained the lead early in the second period, Malgin recording his second goal of the game, one-timing a redirected pass from Jonathan Huberdeau off Holtby, the near pipe, and into the net 6:40 into the period to make it 2-1.

Ovechkin tied the game just over a minute later when he redirected a Brooks Orpik drive from the left point out of the air and past Sateri’s right arm 7:51 into the period.

Washington took the lead for good late in the second on a goal by John Carlson. Kuznetsov worked the puck up the right wing wall and backhanded a pass to Tom Wilson in the right wing circle. Wilson relayed the puck through the slot to Carlson at the left wing circle hash marks where he one-timed the puck past Sateri at the 17:38 mark.

The Caps closed the scoring early in the third period on a power play. Andre Burakovsky grabbed the puck in full flight outside the Florida blue line and carried it into the zone. From the far edge of the right wing circle, he sent the puck across to Brett Connolly in the left wing circle for a one-timer that beat Sateri 1:52 into the period. The Caps clamped down on the Panthers from there to go into the All-Star break on a good note.

Other stuff…

-- Alex Ovechkin hit two milestones in this game. His assist on the Caps’ first goal was his 500th of his career. He became the 143rd player in NHL history to hit that mark and is the 14th active player with 500 helpers. He joined Nicklas Backstrom as the only Capitals to reach the 500-assist mark in team history.

-- Ovechkin’s goal was his 30th of the season, making him one of three players in league history to record 30 or more goals in each of his first 13 seasons in the league. Mike Gartner and Wayne Gretzky are the others.

-- Ovechkin became the 43^rd player in NHL history to record 500 goals and 500 assists.  He is one of only five active players to do so.  Jaromir Jagr (766 goals/1155 assists), Jarome Iginla (625/675; technically active, but he has not played this season), Marian Hossa (525/609; sitting out this season for medical reasons), and Patrick Marleau (524/583) are the others.

-- It was Ovechkin’s 14th multi-point game of the season, tying him for 14th among players in the league this season in the total number of multi-point games.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov also had a multi-point game (two assists), his 11th of the season.  However, it might be his last multi-point – or any – game for a while.  He went out for one shift in the third period before retiring for the night with a suspected groin injury.  If there is a silver lining, the Caps do not play again until next Wednesday, at least giving Kuznetsov five days to improve.

-- John Carlson had ten shots on goal, tying his high for the season (October 20th against Detroit). It was his third career double digit shots game, fifth most in club history since shots became a statistic and third most since the 2004-2005 lockout, trailing only Alexander Semin (four) and Ovechkin (46).

-- In one of the stranger collections of numbers coming out of this game, the Caps had a 46-34 advantage in shots on goal, but only a 65-61 advantage in shot attempts.  That was the result of having had only five shot attempts blocked.  For you Fans of the Fenwick (unblocked shot attempts), 92.3 percent of the Caps’ shot attempts were unblocked (60 of 65).  But even there, things were odd, as the Caps’ Fenwick-for percentage at 5-on-5 was only 51.43 percent (numbers from Corsica.hockey).

-- The third period was like a Rocky movie with head shots galore.  The teams combined for 33 shots on goal, the Panthers with 14 of them and the Caps with 19.  Yet, only one goal was scored (Brett Connolly, on a power play).

-- Speaking of power play, this was the first time the Caps scored more than one power play goal on the road (two) since they had a pair in 4-3 win in Detroit over the Red Wings on October 20^th.  It broke a 17-game road streak without scoring a pair of power play goals (5-for-47 over that streak – 10.6 percent), itself an odd fact since they had two or more in three of their first five road games this season.

-- The Tom Wilson Trinity… three penalties (including a fight), three shots on goal, three hits.  He also had an assist and was plus-2.  Four of his last five shifts ended in penalties, three of his last four (the four shifts he skated in the third period) ending with a penalty on him.  A jam-packed 13 minutes of ice time, wouldn’t you say?

In the end…

The numbers on the scoreboard were nice (and let’s not leave out Braden Holtby’s 32 saves on 34 shots faced), but they are tempered with the injury to Kuznetsov.  Even with his struggles of late, he is a critical cog in the Caps’ machine.  Having a player of his skill occupying the second line center position gives the coaching staff that much more flexibility to experiment with line changes than they might have with a player of more limited talents.  And that doesn’t even count Kuznetsov’s own contributions when he is on his game.  The Caps are not a deep enough team to expect sustained success if he is out of the lineup for any significant length of time.  It would require a much more disciplined defensive approach than they have been able to muster consistently this season.  Consider it a challenge.