The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 70: Capitals at Penguins, March 12th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals embark on their penultimate road trip of the season this week, and where better to start it than a trip to Pittsburgh to take on the Penguins?  Tuesday’s meetings of the clubs will be the fourth and final meeting of the regular season.  In the three games to date, the Caps have a 1-1-1 record, all three games settled by a single goal.  If history is a guide, the game in Pittsburgh will feature wide open offense.  In the last six games in Steel City, the winning team had six or more goals four times (the Penguins in each instance), and the teams combined for 55 goals, the Pens enjoying a 31-24 margin.

If the Caps are going to end this trend, this club seems best positioned to do it, going into the contest on a seven-game winning streak and allowing only 14 goals in the process.  Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is slowly cementing their place in the postseason.  The Pens are 5-1-1 in their last seven games, including a win over the Boston Bruins on Sunday night that ended the Bruins’ points streak at 19 games, pushing them into third place in the Metropolitan Division and four points clear of the ninth-place Montreal Canadiens in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

Pittsburgh has been a good, if not especially dominant team on home ice this season.  They are one of 11 teams with 20 wins on home ice, but their 20-12-2 record is tied for 12^th in standing points earned with four other teams.  The 117 goals scored on home ice ranks ninth in the league.  Of that goal total, Jake Guentzel has 18, far and away the leading goal scorer for the club on home ice this season (five more than Phil Kessel).  He certainly has a knack for finding the back of the net, dating back to his days at the University of Nebraska-Omaha, where he posted 42 goals in 108 games over three seasons.  He moved up to record 23 goals in 44 games over two seasons with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in the AHL.

Guentzel has not missed a beat with the big club, putting up 72 goals in 191 games over three seasons.  His 34 goals this season shattered the career-best he recorded last season (22).  He has been clutch, too, posting another 23 goals in only 37 postseason games with the Pens, seven of those being game-winners.  He will bear watching in this games, since the Pens are 9-2-2 in the 13 games in which he scored a goal on home ice this season.  That includes a pair of goals against the Caps in a 7-6 overtime win in the Pens’ season opener on October 4^th.  Guentzel is 2-4-6, even, in eight career games against Washington.

Injuries have plagued the Penguin defense this season.  Of the 69 games played by Pittsburgh to date, only three defensemen have dressed for 60 or more games, and only one – Jack Johnson – has dressed for all of them.  Johnson is among the more controversial free agent signings in recent years, if by “controversial,” one means “what were they thinking?”  What would possess a team to sign a 31-year old defenseman to a five-year/$16.25 million contract, coming off an 11-point season (in 77 games) with a career plus-minus rating of minus-109 and iffy performance metrics?  Surely, Pens fans had issues with the deal. 

One thing that Johnson could provide, and has provided, is durability.  In each of his first 11 seasons he averaged more than 20 minutes per game and more than 23 minutes per game in the 711 games in which he appeared.  Last season, his last of seven seasons with the Columbus Blue Jackets, was the first in which he dipped below 20 minutes per game (19:33).  But he remains a comparatively weak possession player, continuing an uninterrupted string of seasons in his NHL career under 50 percent in shot attempts-for percentage at even strength and in minus relative Corsi-for at even strength for the 12^th time in 13 seasons.   And, his plus-minus at the game-to-game level is a confirming indicator of success in that the results are unsurprising.  Pittsburgh is 20-0-2 in the 22 games in which he was a plus player, 3-15-4 in the 22 games in which he was a minus player.  Johnson is 5-9-14, minus-4, in 27 career games against the Caps.

Matt Murray fits squarely in the middle of the rankings of NHL goaltenders this season.  His 2.77 goals against average ranks 17^th among 35 goalies with at least 1,750 minutes played, and his .917 save percentage ranks ninth in that group.  Those numbers square with his career 2.63 goals against average and his .917 save percentage.  But he has had his ups and down.  Six times in 38 appearances he allowed five or more goals, while 11 times he has allowed one or fewer, including four shutouts that ties a career high. 

If Murray gets the call for this game, it will be his 150^th NHL game, and he will become the eighth goaltender in Penguin history to reach that mark.  He already ranks fourth on the all-time franchise list in wins (91), despite this being only his fourth season with the club.  That .917 career save percentage ranks first in franchise history among Penguin goalies with at least 50 games played, and his 2.63 goals against average ranks third in that group, behind Marc-Andre Fleury (2.58) and Brent Johnson (2.61).  Murray has been hot over the last month, going 8-2-2, 2.37, .932, with one shutout in 12 appearances.  On the other hand, his home record this season leaves something to be desired.  He is 10-8-0, 3.26, .902, with two shutouts on home ice this season.  In ten career appearances against the Capitals, Murray is 6-4-0, 3.62, .885.

1.  Pittsburgh has had some odd struggles with numbers at home.  The 106 goals allowed is sixth-most on home ice this season, and they have been out-shot at home, 1168-1117.

2.  The Pens have an odd special teams double.  They have the fifth-worst penalty kill on home ice this season (75.3 percent), and no team has allowed more shorthanded goals against on home ice (seven).  On the latter number, they also have seven shorthanded goals scored on home ice, second most in the league.

3.  Pittsburgh has taken 11 major penalties on home ice this season.  Only Boston has taken more on home ice (16).

4.  Has Pittsburgh become a “heavy” team, or are they getting the benefit of generous hometown scoring?  Whether one or the other, they have been credited with 1,163 hits this season on home ice, most in the league, and by a wide margin (Vegas has 1,101 in one more game played).

5.  No team has recorded fewer one-goal decisions on home ice this season than the Pens.  They have done so nine times (tied with Columbus and Los Angeles) and have posted a 5-2-2 record in those games.  They have won four of their last five one-goal decisions at home, two of them in overtime.

1.  The Caps have 11 decisions by one goal on the road this season, tied for fifth-fewest in the league.  They are 9-0-2 in those games, including a 7-6 overtime loss to the Pens in October.  They are one of four teams this season not to have lost a one-goal decision in regulation on the road.

2.  Washington could stand to be tighter with the puck on the road.  They have been charged with 377 giveaways away from home, second-highest total in the league (Florida: 399).

3.  Only Tampa Bay has a better shooting percentage on the road this season (11.0 percent) than the Caps (10.9 percent).

4.  Only Los Angeles and Dallas have had fewer power play chances in road games (84 apiece) than the Caps this season (85).

5.  Washington has 94 even strength goals scored in 34 road games, the second-highest total of even strength goals scored on the road this season (Toronto: 97).  Only Carolina and Nashville have more empty net goals scored on the road (eight and nine, respectively) than the Caps (seven, tied with three other teams).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Pittsburgh: Phil Kessel

Phil Kessel is one of the top goal scorers of his era.  Since he came into the league in the 2006-2007 season, he is one of ten players with 350 or more goals, tied for ninth on the list with Chicago’s Patrick Kane (352).  Only three players over that span have more seasons with at least 30 goals than Kessel (six): Alex Ovechkin (13), Sidney Crosby (eight), and Jarome Iginla (seven).  The odd part of all of that goal scoring prowess is that Kessel has never had a 40-goal season, hitting 37 goals twice, in 2011-2012 and in 2013-2014, both with Toronto.  The strangeness extends to his stay in Pittsburgh.  He is on a pace to finish this season with 26 goals, which would make three seasons in four that he did not reach the 30-goal mark. 

But dig a bit deeper into those numbers.  What he has sacrificed in his goal totals, he has more than made up for in his power play assists.  His next power play helper will be his 20^th this season and would give him three straight seasons with 20 or more power play assists.  Before that streak, he never had more than 17 power play assists in 10 seasons.  That puts him in a position to finish the season with at least 70 points (he has 68), which would be the fifth time he topped that number and the third with the Penguins.  He has had some problems lately, though, going 1-10-11, minus-8, over his last 18 games.  When he scored a goal against Columbus last Thursday, it snapped a 16-game streak without a goal.  Kessel is 11-21-32, minus-7, in 46 career games against the Capitals.

Washington: Braden Holtby

In one respect, goaltender Braden Holtby has had a bounceback year from last season.  Last year, he had an even strength save percentage of .914, the worst of his career.  So far this season, he has an even strength save percentage of .920.  It is not at the level he produced in his first seven seasons, over which he did not have a season with an even strength save percentage under .928, but it is an improvement.  On the other hand, his shorthanded save percentage of .840 is his worst since 2011-2012, and in that season he faced only 25 shots while shorthanded. 

There is something else to consider over the arc of his career as the season is winding down.  Holtby is unbeaten in four decisions in March so far.  He has stopped 94 of 100 shots, that .940 save percentage being his best March of his career since his first season (.962 in six games) and a considerable improvement over the .897 save percentage he posted last March, the worst of his career.  It is part of a longer run of solid play for Holtby, who is 8-4-1, 2.31, .925, with one shutout over his last 13 appearances.  He could use some of that high-end performance in this game.  The Pens are the only team in the league against which Holtby has suffered ten regular season losses in regulation.  He is 9-10-3, 2.96, .911, with two shutouts in 23 career games against Pittsburgh.

In the end…

We should be long past the whole “Ovechkin vs. Crosby” angle in this series, but that is always going to be the headline theme as long as Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby skate for these teams.  But so often, these contests, both in the regular season and in the playoffs, turn on the efforts of the support players.  Consider that over the last two seasons, John Carlson is tied with Ovechkin for the team lead in points against Pittsburgh (seven), and even as an unlikely a source as defenseman Christian Djoos is tied for fifth on the team in points against the Pens (four).  On the other side, one should not overlook those such as Patric Hornqvist (five points), Bryan Rust (four) or Justin Schultz (three) in the seven games played between the teams.  Winning is a team effort in which the stars shine, but also a product of contributions up and down the roster.  Both of these teams share that trait.  It is one of the things that makes this rivalry so compelling.

Capitals 4 – Penguins 3

A TWO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 69: Capitals 3 - Jets 1

The Washington Capitals hosted the Winnipeg Jets on Sunday night.  It was a hard-fought matchup between teams that resemble one another.  However, the Caps rode a tight penalty kill, a favorable video review, and fine goaltending from Pheonix Copley to take a 3-1 decision to wrap up the home stand.

First Period

The Caps opened the game dominating the Jets, pinning the visitors in their own end for much of the first four minutes.  The pressure paid off when the Caps worked a passing drill to the right of goalie Connor Hellebuyck.  The Caps worked the puck to the top of the offensive zone, where John Carlson found Nicklas Backstrom.  Blake Wheeler was hesitant to come out to challenge Backstrom, and Backstrom took advantage, stepping up and snapping a shot off the post to Hellebuyck’s glove side and in to make it 1-0, 4:35 into the period.

It took Winnipeg less than two minutes to tie the game, Matthew Perreault starting and finishing a play, skating the puck deep into the offensive zone and feeding Jack Roslovic to the right of goalie Pheonix Copley.  Perreault continued around the Caps’ net and came out the other side wide open to take a return feed from Roslovic for a one-timer that beat Copley before he has a chance to scramble across the blue paint.  Winnipeg had it tied, 1-1, at the 6:23 mark.

The Caps then put themselves in a hole, Brett Connolly taking a tripping penalty at the 14:28 mark, and then taking a too-many-men penalty 26 seconds later, giving Winnipeg a two-man advantage for 1:34.  The Caps got out of the first part of that two-man disadvantage, in no small part due to a Matt Niskanen block of a Patrik Laine shot off his left hand that sent him to the locker room.  The Caps then successfully ran off the second part of the two-man disadvantage without further incident.  That would be how the teams went to the first intermission.

-- Winnipeg outshot the Caps, 8-5, but the Caps out-attempted them, 17-13, despite being shorthanded for 2:26 in the period.

-- Nicklas Backstrom won four of five draws, the only Capital over 50 percent for the period.  The Caps finished the period 10-for-18.

-- No Capital had more than one shot, and Niskanen led the team with three shot attempts.

-- The Caps did not register a shot on goal over the last 8:10 of the period.  They did have six missed shots in that span.

Second Period

The Caps went shorthanded for the third time in the contest in the seventh minute of the second period, Carl Hagelin going off for a holding penalty.  The Caps killed that off, and shortly thereafter, Hagelin drew a tripping penalty from Matthew Perreault to send Washington to their first power play of the evening.  It did not go well, but at least the Jets did not get a shorthanded goal.  The Caps did fail to record a shot on goal.

Hagelin, who had a busy second period, took another penalty in the 13^th minute to send the Jets on their fourth power play of the night.  It would end up being a case of having the Jets just where the Caps wanted them.  Upon killing the penalty, the puck ended up on Nic Dowd’s stick inside the Caps’ blue line.  As Hagelin exited the penalty box, Dowd flipped the puck into space and out of the zone, letting Hagelin grab it for a breakaway.  Behind the Winnipeg defense, Hagelin skated in an snapped a shot that tricked through Hellebuyck’s pads to make it 2-1 at the 14:32 mark.  That would be the margin at the end of the period.

-- The Caps were out-shot, 15-4, in the middle period and out-attempted, 23-6. 

-- Through two periods, the Caps had yet to have a player record more than one shot on goal.  Alex Ovechkin had only one shot attempt (blocked).  Two defensemen – Matt Niskanen and Michal Kempny – led the team with three shot attempts apiece.

-- Four Caps went to the second intermission without having recorded a shot attempt: Nick Jensen, Jakub Vrana, John Carlson, and Evgeny Kuznetsov.

-- NIcklas Backstrom went 4-for-7 on faceoffs and finished the second period, as he did the first, as the only Capital over 50 percent on draws (8-for-13).

Third Period

The Caps got their second power play of the evening just 18 seconds into the third period, courtesy of a Patrik Laine hooking penalty.  It went as well as the first one, the Caps failing to record a shot on goal.

Things got tense midway through the period when a Brandon Tanev shot made its way to the Capitals’ crease.  Adam Lowry and Bryan Little poked at the loose puck, Little pushing Copley into the net as the puck just before the puck crossed the goal line.  Referee Jean Hebert waved the goal off immediately for goaltender interference.  Winnipeg head coach Paul Maurice challenged the call, but upon review it was upheld, and the score remained 2-1, Caps.

That would be the biggest scare for the Caps until the 17:25 mark, when Dmitry Orlov was sent off for a tripping call.  Winnipeg pulled Hellebuyck shortly thereafter to gain an additional, 6-on-4 advantage.  It was a frantic penalty kill that featured what looked like a lay-up shorthanded goal, Tom Wilson sending the puck from behind the net to Lars Eller closing on the empty cage.  But Eller had his stick disturbed at the last moment, and play continued.  The Caps went on to kill the penalty, but they struggled to get the puck out of their end.  Finally, Wilson and Eller connected, Eller finishing the play with a shot from the neutral zone into the empty net.  The Caps skated off with a hard-fought 3-1 win.

Other stuff…

-- John Carlson’s assist on Nicklas Backstrom’s first period goal was his 50^th assist of the season, becoming the third defenseman in Caps history to record consecutive 50-assist seasons.  He joins Larry Murphy (1986-1987 and 1987-1988) and Scott Stevens (1987-1988 and 1988-1989), hall of famers both, in that club.

-- Carl Hagelin scored his second goal as a Cap.  So far this season, he had one goal on 28 shots in 16 games for Pittsburgh, one goal on 36 shots in 22 games for Los Angeles, and now, two goals on 16 shots in eight games with Washington.

-- In addition to three different players recording goals, the Caps had eight different players post a single point.

-- Lars Eller and Matt Niskanen finished with three shots on goal apiece.  Twelve other skaters finished with a single shot on goal for the Caps.

-- Nicklas Backstrom won only one of eight faceoffs in the third period to finish 9-for-21.  Every Cap taking at least one draw finished under 50 percent.

-- Three players led the team in hits, none of them Brooks Orpik.  John Carlson, Dmitry Orlov, and T.J. Oshie had four apiece.

-- This was just the fourth game this season that Orpik was not credited with a hit.  Two of them have come this month (March 1^st vs. the New York Islanders).

-- The Caps were out-shot, 34-18, and they were out-attempted, 58-38.  They did not have a power play shot on goal in four minutes of power play time.

-- The Caps faced five Winnipeg power plays in this game and shut out the Jets with the man advantage.  That is 11 shorthanded situations faced in the Caps’ last two games.  That is the most the Caps have faced in consecutive games this season except for Games 16 and 17, against Arizona and Minnesota, in November, when the Caps faced 12 such situations, each opponent getting six chances.

-- Pheonix Copley won his fifth straight decision.  In posting that 5-0-0 record he has a goals against average of 2.92 and a save percentage of .908.

In the end…

Winnipeg was wrapping up a four-game road trip, but this was also a team than hung eight goals on Carolina in their last contest and scored 15 goals in the first three games of this trip.  In that context, this was a good test for the Caps, especially in paying attention to defensive details, and they passed.  Not with flying colors, perhaps, given the dominance Winnipeg had in shots and shot attempts, but the Caps were good when they had to be, especially on the penalty kill. It was a good way to end the weekend at home, just the springboard one would want to have as they head out on the road for the coming week.

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 23

If Week 22 featured explosive offense, Week 23 featured tending to business better in the defensive end of the ice for the Washington Capitals.  It was a week in which the Caps looked more like a team whose attention has been stirred as they head into the last month of the regular season.

Record: 3-0-0

Last week, the Caps won three or more games for a week without a loss for the first time since Week 11.  Now, they have two such weeks in a row, the first time they put together consecutive weeks without a loss since Weeks 8 and 9 over which they also went 6-0-0.

The three wins in Week 23 came at the expense of three Metropolitan Division teams and extended the Caps’ winning streak against teams in the Metro to five games.  The two wins to start the week came on the road, giving the Caps 20 road wins this season.  The 3-0 win over New Jersey to end the week left the Caps with 20 wins at home for the year.  It is the 13^th season, and the fifth consecutive season, that the Caps have won 20 games both at home and on the road.

And now that we are into the last 15 games of the season, one can start to look forward to matchups in the postseason.  At the end of the week, with Washington having pulled in front of the New York Islanders once more, they would draw the Carolina Hurricanes in the first round if the standings hold.  But with a narrow two-point lead and the Islanders holding a game in hand, the Caps are also facing the prospect of facing the Pittsburgh Penguins (currently third in the Metropolitan Division) in the first round.

Offense: 3.33/game (season: 3.38/7th)

The Caps did not have quite as prolific a week on the offensive side of the puck as they did in Week 22, but what they lacked in totals, they made up for with a pleasant surprise or two (or three).  At the top of the pleasant surprise list was Andre Burakovsky.  He had a goal in each of the three games for the week, his longest streak of consecutive goal-games since he put together a four-game streak in January 2017.  In two of those three games this week, Burakovsky recorded a goal having played less than ten minutes.  That brings his total of games scoring a goal while skating under ten minutes to four, tied for third-most instances in the league (Austin Wagner has six, and Tyler Ennis has five).  It also brought his total for the season to 11 goals, the fourth straight season in which he reached double digits, not as small a feat as it might seem since he has never averaged as much as 14 minutes a game in any of his five seasons and is averaging just over 11 minutes a game this season.

In another surprise, Travis Boyd tied for the team lead in points for the week with three, all of them assists, to draw him to within a point of a 20-point season.  His total of 19 points have come in only 42 games so far.

Next, there was Carl Hagelin recording his first goal (his first point) as a Capital.  It might have fitting that he would get that goal against a team – the New York Rangers – for whom he played four seasons and 266 regular season games.  Hagelin added an assist in the following game against the Philadelphia Flyers.

Nicklas Backstrom had the other multi-goal week for the Caps, bringing his total to four over his last six games after going a dozen games without one.  He, Boyd, and Burakovsky tied for the team lead in points (three).

Defense: 1.67/game (season: 3.09/20th)

The Caps appear to have re-discovered the art of playing defense, or at least they did in this week.  They did not face elite offenses (Philadelphia ranked 12^th at week’s end in scoring offense, the Rangers 23^rd, and the Devils 24^th), but they did not let those opponents get much traction either.  They held those three opponents to a total of 79 shots (26.3 per game), and none of them recorded more than 30 shots. 

The stinginess extended to shot attempts at 5-on-5, where the Caps held a 149-113 advantage (56.9 percent).  They had a positive shot attempt differential in all three games, extending their streak of such games to six and posting a cumulative differential of plus-105 (59.6 percent).  That might not be a coincidence that the six-game streak with positive shot attempt differential coincides with a six-game winning streak. 

What is also noteworthy about the streak is the shot attempts allowed side of the differential.  Twice in three games this week, the Caps held opponents under 40 shot attempts at fives.  That makes five times in six games that they have done so after doing it only once in their previous 22 games, and in that instance they allowed Columbus 39 attempts.

Goaltending: 1.63 / .937 / 1 shutout (season: 2.94 / .907 / 4 shutouts)

Braden Holtby got all the minutes in goal in Week 23, and he did not disappoint.  He was .900 or better in save percentage in each of the three games, extending his streak of .900-plus games to five, tying his longest such streak of the season.  It is part of a longer run of good play in which he has a .925 save percentage over his last 13 games after posting a .905 save percentage over his first 36 games this season.

If there was a hint of a blemish on Holtby’s week, it was in the progression of save percentages through the periods.  He was superb in the first periods of games, especially when you consider that he allowed a goal on the first shot he faced for the week, to Ryan Strome of the New York Rangers.  He then stopped the other 27 first period shots he saw, a .964 save percentage.  He was slightly less superb in the second periods of games, stopping 24 of 26 shots (.923), and he slipped a bit in the third periods of games, going 21-for-23 (.913).  The odd thing about the third periods of games is that he stopped all the shots he faced in the first and third games of the week, a total of only nine shots.  It was in the third period against Philadelphia in the middle game of the week, one that the Caps started with a 5-1 lead, in which he allowed both third period goals for the week on 14 shots.

Power Play: 2-for-12/16.7 percent (season: 22.0 percent/9th)

The difference between a very good power play week and an average one is often one goal, and that was the difference here.  But the Caps’ power play was better as the week went on.  Washington failed on four chances against the Rangers in the first game of the week, but they did go 2-for-8 against the Flyers and Devils to finish the week, and New Jersey was at week’s end the fourth-best penalty killing team in the league.

Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom had the goals on the power play for the week, while John Carlson assisted on both.  Backstrom and Evgeny Kuznetsov also added assists to complete the scoring credits.

As a group, the Caps recorded 18 shots on goal in 19:07 of power play ice time, a respectable shots-per-minute mark.  Ovechkin recorded seven of the 18 shots on goal to lead the team; Backstrom and T.J. Oshie had three apiece. 

The odd part about the power play was that the Caps had three or more opportunities in all three games, the first time that they had at least three chances in three consecutive games since Games 40-42 in early January against Dallas, Detroit, and Philadelphia.

Penalty Killing: 9-for-9/100.0 percent (season: 79.2 percent/22nd)

Week 23 might have been the best penalty killing week of the season for the Caps, even if it did come against three teams in the bottom half of the power play rankings.  It was the first time that the Caps faced at least nine shorthanded situations and shut teams out since they went 9-fo-9 on the penalty kill in Week 9.  In the first two games of the week, the Caps killed penalties best by avoiding shorthandedness altogether.  They went shorthanded only twice against the Rangers to start the week and only once against the Flyers in the middle game of the week.

They were more undisciplined in the last game of the week against the Devils, but they cleaned that mess up smartly, shutting out the Devils on six power play chances.  What made this week more impressive was the sustained shot suppression on the part of the Caps’ penalty killers.  The Rangers had one shot in 3:10 in power play time.  The Flyers had no shots on goal in two full minutes of their lone power play.  Even the Devils, with their six power plays, had only six shots on goal in 11:42 of power play time.  All in all, the Caps allowed their three opponents only seven shots on goal in 16:52 of power play ice time.

Faceoffs: 59-for-147 / 40.1 percent (season: 45.8 percent/31st)

Overall, it was a poor week for the Caps in the circle, but not quite as bad as it was in the aggregate.  Not that a barely 40 percent week is good, but that number was dragged down by a 28.2 percent win rate in the neutral zone.  Still, the Caps lost all three zones in two games for the week and lost two of three zones in the other, the last game of the week against the Devils.  The Caps did manage to win 12 of 19 defensive draws in that game (63.2 percent) to push them over 50 percent for the week in the defensive end (52.0 percent/26 for 50).

Individually, Lars Eller had a good week, winning 18 of 33 draws (54.5 percent).  He was especially successful in the ends, finishing over 60 percent in both the offensive (61.5 percent) and defensive (63.6 percent) zones.  No other Capital taking at least ten draws won as much as 45 percent of the faceoffs they took, Nic Dowd coming closest, winning nine of 21 draws taken (42.9 percent).

Goals by Period:

Doubling up on opponents in goals scored for the week generally means things break down well by period, and this was true for the Caps, to a point.  They did allow a goal in the opening minute against the Rangers to open the week, the fifth straight game in which they allowed a goal in the game’s first four minutes.  But that would be the only first period goal the Caps would allow for the week.

The Caps packed all of their second period offense for the week in the middle game, scoring three times in a span of 3:05 against the Flyers.  It would be the third period of that game, though, that would be the smudge on an otherwise shiny period-by-period week.  The Caps, who took a 5-1 lead into the third period of that game, allowed a goal in the first ten seconds, and then the allowed another in the eighth minute of the period to make things more interesting than they needed to be.  But that would be it, and the Caps would go on to shutout New Jersey to complete the week’s sweep.

Year-over-Year:

This team has now surpassed last year’s on a year-over-year basis.  This year’s club has two more wins and four more points than did last year’s club. This is the sixth club in team history to reach 40 wins in 68 games and the third in four years to do it (the 2015-2016 team had 49 wins in 68 games; the 2016-2017 team had 44 wins in 68 games).

What has been most noteworthy about this team, perhaps, is the improvement in scoring offense.  Goals are up by more than 13 percent from the same point last season, and this team has the second-highest scoring offense in the shootout era (since 2005-2006), its 3.38 per game average trailing only the 2009-2010 juggernaut (3.82).  That improvement in offense drills down through shots on goal (up 5.5 percent over last year) and 5-on-5 shot attempts (up 2.2 percent), although this might be part of a broader increase in offense across the league.

The “grittership” numbers are up broadly as well – hits (2.9 percent), blocked shots (up 7.4 percent), and takeaways (up 12.8 percent), although faceoff winning percentage is down by 4.5 points from last season.  Penalties and penalty minutes are down, which is largely a “Tom Wilson” effect.  Last season, Wilson dressed for 64 of the Caps’ first 68 games and totaled 164 penalty minutes.  This season, he has 99 penalty minutes in 49 games.  But Wilson is also more disciplined in his games to date than at a similar point last season.  In his first 49 games last season, he had 127 penalty minutes, 28 more than he has at a similar games-played point.

In the end…

If Capitals Nation has been waiting for the team to pay more attention and display more focus, the last two weeks are encouraging.  The playoffs are in sight, and the Caps’ performance over the last two weeks in winning all six games at least gives the appearance that they are getting taking their defense of the Stanley Cup with the seriousness and resolve it requires. 

It is a good thing, too, because the Caps are about to be tested a bit more rigorously by the schedule with games against Winnipeg, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay coming up.  The scent of playoffs is in the air.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Andre Burakovsky (3-0-3, plus-2, 2 game-winning goals, no charged giveaways)
• Second Star: Braden Holtby 3-0-0, 1.63, .937, 1 shutout)
• Third Star: Carl Hagelin (1-1-2, plus-3, 11:31 in shorthanded ice time (led all skaters))

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 69: Jets at Capitals, March 10th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up their short two-game home stand on Sunday night against the Winnipeg Jets at Capital One Arena.  After shutting out the injury-plagued New Jersey Devils, 3-0, on Friday night, the Caps will be stepping up in weight class to face a Jets team that leads the Central Division standings and is on the short list in the discussion of teams that could come out of the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup final.

Washington will be going into this game aiming to win a seventh consecutive game, which would match their longest of the season, that in Games 19-25 to close the month of November.  The Caps will also be looking to extend their home winning streak to five games and their points streak on home ice to eight games.

On the other side, the Jets will be wrapping up a four-game road trip with their visit to Washington.  They have won two of three games on the trip so far and three of their last four overall.  Still, the last five weeks have not been especially successful for Winnipeg, which has a 6-7-2 record in 15 games since February 5^th.

Winnipeg has had respectable offensive output over those 15 games with 47 goals (3.13 per game), and a lot of that – more than 40 percent of it, in fact – is due to Blake Wheeler.  In 15 games played, Wheeler has had a hand in 19 of the team’s goals (9-10-19).  His participation in 40.4 percent of Winnipeg’s goals over the past 15 games is a bit higher rate than his having a hand in 36.1 percent of the team’s 230 goals scored in 67 games this season (19-64-83).  Wheeler, who averaged 24 goals and 61 points per 82 games over his first nine seasons with Boston and Atlanta/Winnipeg, has taken quite a leap in production the last two seasons, especially in his assist totals, a reflection of how deep a scoring team the Jets have around him. 

Last year, he recorded a typical 23 goals in 81 games, but he added 68 assists.  This year, he is on a pace to hit 23 goals once more, but the 64 assists he has going into Sunday’s game puts him on a pace for 78 assists and 101 points, which would be the first 100 point season of his career.  And this season, when Wheeler scores, the Jets win.  Winnipeg is 14-1-1 in the 16 games in which he recorded a goal.  He is one of three players this season to have recorded a game with at least four goals (teammate Patrick Laine and Arizona’s Brad Richardson being the others), turning the trick last Sunday against the Columbus Blue Jackets in a 5-2 win.  Oddly, it is his only multi-goal game this season.  Wheeler is 5-13-18, plus-5, in 34 career games against Washington.

Jacob Trouba is the only Jet defenseman with at least ten points in the last 15 games and only one of 15 defensemen to have logged ten or more points since February 5^th, when the Jets’ 6-7-2 run started.  Trouba has had an interesting career for a player who just turned 25 years of age.  He was the seventh defenseman taken in a 2012 entry draft that was heavily loaded with defenseman picks at the top of the first round; eight of the first ten picks that year were defensemen, and Trouba was taken as the ninth-overall pick (Caps fans will remember that draft as the one where the Caps snapped a string of seven straight defensemen picked with their selection of Filip Forsberg with the 11^th overall pick).  After spending a year at the University of Michigan after being drafted by the Jets, he jumped straight to the big club for the 2013-2014 season, finishing second in goals among rookie defensemen (10; Torey Krug has 14) and tied for third in points (29).

Trouba’s production tailed off a bit the following two years, and then, during training camp for the 2016-2017 season and without a contract as a restricted free agent, he requested a trade because he wanted to play on the right side and did not think that was going to happen in Winnipeg.  He missed the first month of the season before signing a two-year/$6 million contract. It seemed to agree with him, as he would go on to post a career-high 33 points in just 60 games.  Last season, Trouba was limited to 55 games due to a lower-body injury, a concussion, and an ankle injury, leaving the Jets with getting 115 games from Trouba over the two years of that deal.  And that brought him to another contract impasse that was settled by an arbitrator for one year at $5.5 million.  When this deal is up, Trouba, who already has a career-high 38 points and a plus-15, will once more be an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent.   In six career games against the Caps, he is 0-1-1, even.

Patrik Laine is the flashy goal scorer, Blake Wheeler is the slick all-around offensive player, and then there is Brian Little.  No player in Atlanta Thrashers/Winnipeg Jets history has played more seasons or appeared in more games than Little (12 seasons and 821 games).  Only Ilya Kovalchuk has more goals in franchise history (328) than Little (214).  Only Kovalchuk and Wheeler have more points in team history (615 and 578, respectively) than Little (515).  On February 22^nd, he recorded his 300^th assist, becoming only the second player in team history to reach that mark (Wheeler has 387). 

It is easy to think of Little as a journeyman middle-six player whose consistency and two-way ability, if not particularly outsized numbers, have contributed to a long career, but it might be remembered that he was taken 12^th overall, ten spots ahead of Philadelphia’s Claude Giroux, in the 2007 entry draft.  This season is another example of Little’s consistency across years.  He has 40 points, making it his eighth consecutive full season (not including the shortened 2012-2013 season) with 40 or more points.  His next goal will be his 15^th, making it his eighth consecutive full season with at least 15 goals.  That next goal has been a long time in coming, though.  Little is without one in his last 12 games.  He is 12-9-21, plus-3, in 43 career games against Washington.

1.  Winnipeg does not travel especially well.  While they are tied for third in the league in home wins (22) and are fourth in points earned on home ice (48), they are tied for ninth in road wins (18) and are tied for 15^th in points earned on the road (36).  They are 6-9-0 in their last 15 road games.

2.  Only Colorado has taken more penalties on the road (156) than the Jets (148).  Only the Avalanche and the San Jose Sharks have more penalty minutes on the road (377 and 392, respectively) than Winnipeg (374).

3.  The Jets do well in protecting the puck on the road.  Their 266 giveaways in road games is fifth-fewest in the league and second-fewest among Western Conference teams.

4.  Only Columbus has lost fewer games in extra time (three) than Winnipeg overall (four).

5.  Only Tampa Bay has a better winning percentage when allowing the first goal (18-10-1/.621) than the Jets (16-15-1/.500).

1.  The Caps are rather adept at pulling out wins when allowing the first goal, too.  They rank seventh in winning percentage when doing so (15-13-7/.429).

2.  Only Tampa Bay has more wins this season when leading after one period (27) than the Caps (23).

3.  On the other hand, only five teams have fewer wins than the Caps when trailing after two periods (three).

4.  The Caps are tied for 12^th in the league in wins when outshooting their opponents (18), which might not sound impressive except for the fact that they have outshot opponents only 27 times in 68 games.

5.  This game pits two of the best teams in the league in one-goal games.  Washington ranks fourth in winning percentage in such games (17-4-7/.607), while Winnipeg ranks third (15-5-4/.625).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Winnipeg: Connor Hellebuyck

If Connor Hellebuyck gets the call in goal for Winnipeg on Sunday, it will be his 200^th game with the Jets.  He would become only the third netminder in franchise history to reach 200 games played, trailing only Kari Lehtonen (204) and Ondrej Pavelec (379).  He is already second in team history in wins (111) to Pavelec (152).  His goals against average (2.66) is second among goalies with 100 or more appearances for the Thrashers/Jets (Michael Hutchinson: 2.65), and his career save percentage (.915) is best among that group.  This season, he has been almost equally efficient on the road (.911 save percentage) as at home (.910), but he has been less effective, owing to his facing more shots.  His 3.11 GAA on the road is almost a quarter goal per game higher than his GAA at home (2.88).  Hellebuyck has struggled some on the road lately, but not entirely of his own doing.  Over his last ten road appearances, he is 5-5-0, 3.20, .916.  However, he faced quite a bit of rubber over those ten games, 37.9 shots per 60 minutes.  But hey, he's "hockey tough."  In five career games against Washington, Hellebuyck is 3-1-1, 2.13, .933.

Washington: Nick Jensen

He has one point, and he is averaging 17:06 of ice time, less than any Caps defensemen over the last six games except Brooks Orpik (16:06).  But since Nick Jensen was obtained in trade from the Detroit Red Wings on February 22^nd, the Caps are 6-0-0.  Perhaps it is coincidence, perhaps not.  The acquisition pushed the less experienced Christian Djoos to the press box and gave the Caps four more minutes of ice time per game than Djoos was giving them (13:03).  That has allowed the team to pare back some of John Carlson’s ice time, from 25:18 per game before the trade to 23:48 in the six games since. 

The stability Jensen appears to have provided might be a cause, or it might be an effect of better possession numbers among the defensemen.  Six Capital defensemen have dressed in the six games since Jensen arrived, and the shot attempt-for percentages for each over that span are impressive over the range of situations.  In the four situation categories recorded by NHL.com – SAT ahead, SAT behind, SAT tied, and SAT close – only one defenseman in one category is under 50 percent over those games (Orpik is 47.83 percent in tied situations).  And, there is the odd Jensen number as a Capital: 17.  That is his shot on goal total, most among the six Caps defensemen in the six games since he arrived.  In four career games against Winnipeg, Jensen is 0-1-1, minus-2.

In the end…

This is probably the last time this season, until the Stanley Cup final, that is can be said that this is a potential Stanley Cup preview on Washington’s schedule.  Neither of these teams would top many lists as a favorite to reach the final – Tampa Bay has been too good for too long this season for any team to challenge them as the leading contender in the East, and there are hotter teams at the moment in the West (the Jets have the fourth-worst record in the West since February 1^st).  But these teams are similar.  Each has a high-end goal scorer, each has a deep squad of forwards, each has a goaltender who can steal a game, each can punish an opponent.  Either has the potential to reach the final.  There just is not that much difference between the two, and it serves as a good measuring stick for the Caps as they head down the stretch.

Capitals 4 – Jets 3

The Peerless and the Perils of Pepperoni, Anchovy, and Marshmallow Fluff Pizza

Above, you see the standings at the top of the Metropolitan Division today.  The Washington Capitals and the New York Islanders are tied.  But it is more than that.  The NHL tie-breaking guidelines provide for the following order in breaking standings ties:

If two or more clubs are tied in points during the regular season, the standing of the clubs is determined in the following order:

1. The fewer number of games played (i.e., superior points percentage).
2. The greater number of games won, excluding games won in the Shootout. This figure is reflected in the ROW column.
3. The greater number of points earned in games between the tied clubs. If two clubs are tied, and have not played an equal number of home games against each other, points earned in the first game played in the city that had the extra game shall not be included. If more than two clubs are tied, the higher percentage of available points earned in games among those clubs, and not including any "odd" games, shall be used to determine the standing.
4. The greater differential between goals for and against for the entire regular season. NOTE: In standings a victory in a shootout counts as one goal for, while a shootout loss counts as one goal against.

So, for the Caps and the Islanders this morning, they have the same number of points (85) in the same number of games (67), they have the same number of ROW – regulation and overtime wins (35), and, since they have played three games so far this season and would toss out the first game played in New York that the Caps won, they each have two points against the other.  So, we are down to goal differential over the entire season.  Here, the Islanders have a plus-33 to plus-20 edge.

So, let’s fast forward.  The Caps and Islanders jockey for position like a couple of NASCAR racers drafting one another in the backstretch of the final lap.  They get down to the last game of the regular season, Game 82, in Washington – Caps hosting the Islanders.  The Isles have a two-point lead on the Caps, but a Caps win in regulation would put them in a tie with New York in points percentage and ROW wins.

Here is where things get weird.  Pittsburgh has clinched the first wild-card spot in the standings; their last game on the same day has no bearing on that.  Meanwhile, the Caps would be playing their fourth game of the season against the Islanders on this day, thus bringing that game in New York played back in November – a game the Caps won – back into tiebreaker consideration.  If the Caps beat the Islanders in regulation, they win the division on the basis of points won against the Islanders, but their record is inferior to that of Tampa Bay.  So, they get the first wild card in the first round: Pittsburgh.  If they lose, or even win in extra time, they finish second and get, say, divisional third-place Carolina in the first round.

What do you root for?

We have to knock off the “PAM” pizzas.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 68: Devils at Capitals, March 8th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals, hot off a 5-3 win over the Philadelphia Flyers, owners of a five-game winning streak, and locked in a dogfight with the New York Islanders for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division standings, return home on Friday night after a three-game road trip to host the New Jersey Devils at Capital One Arena.

Since losing in a listless effort in Anaheim to the Ducks, 5-2, on February 17^th, the Caps have won seven of eight games to take over the top spot in the Metro (pending the Islanders’ Thursday night contest against the Ottawa Senators), outscoring opponents by a 31-22 margin.  It is the best run of good fortune for the Caps since they went 16-3-0 from November 16^th through December 29^th.

Meanwhile, the Devils have been slowly and steadily sinking in the standings.  Since the last time they won consecutive games, on January 12^th and 14^th against Philadelphia and Chicago, they are 7-13-2 and have been outscored by a 70-53 margin.

It probably says something of the Devils’ season that over their 22-game slump, their leading goal scorer is gone.  Marcus Johansson (six goals in that span) was traded to the Boston Bruins at the trading deadline.  Next in line is Jesper Bratt, who has five goals in 20 games.  Bratt, in his second NHL season, had a fine rookie year, finishing tied for 17^th among rookies last season in goals (13), tied for 15^th in assists (22), and 16^th in points (35).  With eight goals in 51 games to date, Bratt appears unlikely to match last season’s goal total, but he has already posted 25 assists to eclipse last season’s total and he needs only two points (he has 33) to match last season’s total.  He was a victim of inconsistency over stretches this season.  For example, while he got off to a quick 2-11-13 start in his first 17 games, he followed that with a 1-2-3 scoring line over his next 13 games.  In his last 21 games he is 5-12-17, although he is listed as day-to-day after sustaining an injury against Columbus on Tuesday.  He is 0-0-0, minus-1, in five career games against Washington.

Damon Severson leads the defense in scoring over the Devils’ last 22 games, both in goals (three) and points (11).  Severson, who is in only his fifth season with the Devils, is already 12^th on the all-time franchise list of games played by a defenseman (346), tied for 11^th in goals scored (27, with Tommy Albelin).  His next assist will be the 100^th of his career, becoming the 12^th defenseman in team history to reach 100 helpers, and his 126 career points ranks 12^th among defensemen in Devils’ history.  Unfortunately, Severson has played for some of the lesser squads in Devils’ history, a fact reflected by his minus-78 over his five seasons, the third-worst rating among NHL defensemen in that span. This year, his scoring is just a matter of team success when delivering supplemental support.  New Jersey is 16-9-4 in games win which Severson has a point, 9-24-5 in the games he does not.  Severson is 2-3-5, minus-12, in 15 career games against the Caps.

New Jersey is not an awful scoring team; they rank 22^nd in scoring offense at 2.81 goals per game.  But neither are they especially formidable, and that is in no small part a product of not having a go-to goal scorer since Taylor Hall went out of the lineup in late December with a knee injury.  In the meantime, Kyle Palmieri is the Devils one and only 20-goal scorer (26).  But he is “week-to-week” with a lower body injury that leaves him doubtful for this game.  That leaves Blake Coleman as the leading goal scorer for the Devils likely to take the ice for this game. 

But here is the thing.  Coleman, who has 18 goals in 63 games this season, is without a goal in his last 14 games, and he has only one assist while averaging almost 19 minutes a game.  Nevertheless, Coleman has set a personal high in goals (18), has tied his personal best in assists (12), and reached the 30-point mark for the first time in his three seasons in the NHL.  The absences of others and the general malaise that has settled on this team has made it of limited consequence that he scores goals.  New Jersey is 9-5-2 in the games in which he recorded a goal this season, but his scoring on the road gives the Devils a fighting chance, where they are 5-4-1 in the ten road games in which he turned on the red light.  Coleman is 1-1-2, plus-2, in six career games against the Capitals.

1.  The Devils have been taking a long hard look at the roster over this 22 game slide.  A total of 32 skaters have dressed for the Devils in that span.  Only eight skaters have dressed for as many as 20 games, and only three – Kevin Rooney, Andy Greene, and Damon Severson – have dressed for all of them.

2.  New Jersey struggles to mount much offense on the road.  Only Boston has scored fewer goals on the road among Eastern Conference teams this season (75 in 31 road games) than the Devils (83 in 32 road games).

3.  Defense on the road has also been an issue.  The 125 goals allowed by New Jersey on the road is a total topped only by the Ottawa Senators (149 in 34 road games) and the Chicago Blackhawks (131 in 33 road games) among the league’s teams.

4.  No team in the league has allowed more shorthanded goals on the road than New Jersey (eight).

5.  Shot attempts have been an issue for New Jersey on the road.  Their shot attempt differential at 5-on-5 (minus-233) is fifth-worst in the league, and their SAT percentage at fives (46.08) also is fifth-worst.  They are especially poor when trailing in games, where their 46.93 percent mark is last in the league.

1.  If the Caps score two goals against the Devils, that will make 700 goals scored in the all-time series between the teams.  Mike Gartner is the all-time leader in goal scoring against the Devils (31 in 45 games), while Alex Ovechkin is the leader among active Capitals (25 in 51 games).  Ovechkin is the active and all-time leader in points against New Jersey (57).

2.  In the Caps’ 7-1-0 run of late, Alex Ovechkin leads the team in goals (six) and points (ten).

3.  Only the Colorado Avalanche have allowed more power play goals to opponents on home ice (29) than the Caps (25, tied with Detroit).

4.  The Caps can be a handful at home against opponents.  They have scored four or more goals at Capital One Arena 18 times this season.  Only Winnipeg (20) and Tampa Bay (23) have done so more often on home ice.

5.  Washington is seeking their fourth straight win on home ice.  If they earn the win, it will be their longest home winning streak this season.  They had a three-game home winning streak to close November. Also, the Caps are looking to extend their points streak on home ice to seven games (they are 5-0-1 in their last six, already their longest points streak on home ice this season).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New Jersey: Cory Schneider

It has been a long and difficult road for goaltender Cory Schneider.  On February 15^th, he stopped all 15 shots he faced in a 36-minute effort in relief of Keith Kinkaid in a 5-4 win over the Minnesota Wild.  He earned the win in that game, the first win he had in almost 14 months, since a 31-save gem in a 3-1 win over the Detroit Red Wings on December 27, 2017.  That winless drought extended to 24 games across two seasons over which he was 0-17-4 (three no-decisions), 4.12, .865.  However, while that long winless streak is over, there remains his performance on the road.  That win over the Wild is Schneider’s only road win in his last 18 road games, extending back to mid-December 2017.  In that span, he is 1-13-3 (one no-decision), 4.07, .873 on the road.  Kinkaid is gone, traded to the Columbus Blue Jackets, and MacKenzie Blackwood, while having posted promising numbers so far (6-6-0, 2.25, .931, with two shutouts in 15 games), might not be ready for a full workload.  Schneider, who with 291 games played in New Jersey is closing in on becoming just the third goalie in Devil history to appear in 300 games, joining Martin Brodeur (1,259) and Chris Terreri (302), could be in a position to resuscitate his career.  Schneider is 3-9-2, 2.68, .905, with one shutout in 15 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Jakub Vrana

Oh, to be young, to be able to skate like the wind, and having hands slick enough to stickhandle through crowds and snipe shots into the top corner as if you were shooting a Red Ryder BB gun with a compass in the stock, and that thing which tells time.  That has been what Jakub Vrana has enjoyed this season.  One might say that this season dates back to Game 5 of last season’s Stanley Cup final, when he scored the first goal in what would be the Caps’ Cup-clinching win over the Vegas Golden Knights, but what he has done this season is post a career high in goals (19), assists (22), points (41), plus-minus (plus-18), and shooting percentage (14.5).  If there is an odd part of his numbers this season, it is that he has not been quite as good at home as on the road.  Away from DC, he is 11-11-22, plus-11, in 34 games, while at Capital One Arena, he is 8-11-19, plus-7, in 33 games.  He is ramping things up on home ice, though.  Going into this game, Vrana is 5-8-13, plus-6, in his last 14 home games.  He is 2-0-2, minus-2, in seven career games against the Devils.

In the end…

As the Caps head into their last 15 games of the regular season, ten games left on the schedule will be against teams currently playoff-eligible, three of those against the league-leading Tampa Bay Lightning.  It puts a premium on scooping up the available points from the also-rans left on the schedule.  This is one of the latter types of games.  New Jersey is without their best player (Taylor Hall), likely to be without their top goal scorer (Kyle Palmieri) and a player with recent goal input (Jesper Bratt), is thinned out at other positions by injuries, and have long been out of playoff contention.  They have allowed 23 goals in their last five road games while scoring only 12 of their own.  It just is not a game the Caps should lose.  So therefore, they will make it interesting.

Capitals 5 – Devils 3

A TWO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 67: Capitals 5 - Flyers 3

The Washington Capitals and Philadelphia Flyers renewed their I-95 rivalry on Wednesday night in Philadelphia.  When the ice chips settled, and the final horn blared, the Caps had a 5-3 win and were once more in the top spot in the Metropolitan Division.

 First Period

The Caps escaped the first four minutes without allowing a goal, quite an achievement these days.  That bit of stinginess was rewarded in the sixth minute as Alex Ovechkin stepped around a defender, corralled a sliding puck, and from a knee found Tom Wilson at the doorstep for a redirection of the puck past goalie Brian Elliott’s right pad to make it 1-0.

The Flyers got a power play a few minutes later, but they failed to convert, and that would come back to bite them late in the period.  Brett Connolly caught up with a long feed from Carl Hagelin just inside the Flyers’ blue line and skated in through the left wing circle.  With defenseman Travis Sanheim trying to angle him off a direct line to the net, Connolly wrong-footed a shot that might have clipped the shaft of Sanheim’s stick only slightly, but perhaps enough to send it tumbling toward Elliott.  The puck floated over Elliott’s glove and at first was ruled to have hit the crossbar, but on further review was found to have struck the goal-cam at the back of the net and bounced out.  The Caps had a 2-0 lead, 14:16 into the period.  That would be how the teams went to the first intermission.

-- The Caps out-shot the Flyers, 15-7 in the period, and they out-attempted them, 31-13.

-- All six Caps defensemen recorded at least one shot on goal, and as a group they had eight of the 15 shots on goal.

-- Washington won just two of 12 faceoffs in the period (16.7 percent), Lars Eller getting both wins (on four faceoffs taken).

Second Period

The Caps made short work of chasing Elliott in the second period.  On a power play, Alex Ovechkin took a pass from Nicklas Backstrom in his office without a defender within a zip code of him, and it gave him a chance to ease in and rifle a shot through Elliott’s pads to make it 3-0, 2:32 into the period.

Less than two minutes later, Andre Burakovsky collected the puck at the Flyer blue line, skated into the left wing circle, and snapped a shot off the near post and behind Elliott to make it 4-0 at the 4:18 mark.  That would be all for Elliott for this evening.

Cam Talbot hardly fared better to open his stint in net.  He was victimized on the first shot he faced, the product of Jakub Vrana’s speed.  Taking an indirect pass from Nick Jensen, he hustled down the left side.  In too deep for a shot attempt, he skated around the Flyer net and found Nicklas Backstrom in the high slot.  Backstrom pounded the puck past Talbot before he could set himself, and it was 5-0, Caps, 5:42 into the period.

That would be how the score remained into the last minute of play in the period.  But Philippe Myers scored with 12 seconds left, his first in the NHL, wiring a shot off the post on goalie Braden Holtby’s glove side and in to make it 5-1 at the second intermission.

-- The Caps scored three goals on three shots in a span of 3:10 to open the period.

-- Nick Jensen recorded his first point as a Cap on the Backstrom goal.

-- Philly more than doubled up on the Caps in hits through two periods, 20-9.  That’s what happens when you don’t have the puck.

-- The Caps out-shot the Flyers, 11-9 for the period, although the Flyers had the edge in shot attempts, 19-15.

-- The Flyers had 20 hits and 20 faceoff wins through two periods, the Caps were nine and seven.

Third Period

It took the Flyers ten seconds to make it a 5-2 game, Claude Giroux finishing a feed from Oskar Lindblom from the low slot.  Seven minutes later, it was 5-3, courtesy of a Scott Laughton deflection of an Andrew MacDonald shot down and between Holtby’s pads.  And just like that, the Caps’ issues with third periods appeared once more.

The Caps buckled down and wrapped things up after that, though, as the Flyers could get no closer.  The Caps were back on top in the Metropolitan Division.

Other stuff…

-- Braden Holtby’s win was his 250^th in the NHL, and became the second fastest goalie to reach that mark in league history.  Ken Dryden did it in 381 games, Holtby in his 409^th.

-- Alex Ovechkin had a goal and an assist to give him 1,199 career points.

-- Ovechkin’s goal was his 46^th, the tenth time he reached that mark.  Since he came into the league, it is as many 46-plus goal seasons as the next six players combined, and none of that group has more than two.

-- Matt Niskanen and Dmitry Orlov each finished plus-3, the second time for Niskanen this season and the third time for Orlov.  For both players, all of their instances have been on the road.

-- Orlov had two assists, his second multi-point game in his last four contests after going 43 games without one.

-- Nicklas Backstrom had a goal and an assist for his 15^th multi-point game of the season.  It is the 11^th time in 12 seasons he has had at least 15 multi-point games in a season.  Only in the abbreviated 2012-2013 season did he come up short (13).

-- Jakub Vrana was the only Capital not to record a shot on goal.  Nick Jensen led the team with five.

-- The Caps won only 14 of 46 faceoffs (30.4 percent).  That was still better than the first time these teams met, when the Caps won 19 of 64 draws (29.7 percent).

-- Tom Wilson’s goal was his third in five games.  He has four in seven games, and five in his last ten contests.

-- The Caps out-attempted Philadelphia, 64-54.

In the end…

One would like to think that the letdown that started late in the second period is just a case of a good team easing off in a regular season game.  But this has been an issue all season, and it remains to be seen whether the Caps can just flip a switch and be a shutdown team over the last 20 minutes when they need to be.  For the moment, though, the Caps did take care of business in the end, getting the win and regaining the division lead.  It is hard to be too upset with a team bringing a five-game winning streak back home after sweeping a three-game road trip against three division rivals.  Well, maybe just a little upset.