The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 45: Capitals at Flyers, January 8th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals head north on Wednesday night to visit the Philadelphia Flyers in a Metropolitan Matchup featuring teams that will be playing the back half of back-to-back games.  The Caps will head on the road one night after hosting the Ottawa Senators, while the Flyers return home to host the Caps after a visit to Carolina to face the Hurricanes.

Then and Now…

The Capitals and Flyers will meet for the 221^st time in their regular season series.  Washington has an 87-103-11 (19 ties) record against the Flyers, 38-62-7 (six ties) in Philadelphia.  Since 2005-2006, the Caps are 30-16-11 against the Flyers, 14-9-7 on the road.  The Caps won the first meeting in the four-game season series against the Flyers, winning a 2-1 Gimmick decision in Philadelphia on November 13^th.

Active Leaders vs. Opponent…

Noteworthy Opponents…

Sean Couturier once had the reputation as a defense-first forward whose offensive contributions, while welcome, were not the centerpiece of his game.  Then, two years ago, he exploded, more than doubling his previous year’s point total, going 31-45-76 in 2017-2018 after going 14-20-34 in 2016-2017.  It was the first time in his career he topped 40 points.  And, to prove that was not a fluke, he poste 76 points again last season (33-43-76).  This season, though, his scoring pace has lagged a bit.  Through 42 games he is 12-22-34, putting him on a pace to finish 23-43-63 – good by his early career standards, but not as impressive as the last two seasons.  He has been very consistent of late, though.  Since he posted consecutive games without a point in late November, he has not had consecutive games without a point hi his last 20 games and is 6-13-19 over that span.  In 30 career games against the Caps, Couturier is 6-13-19, plus-7.

Most analysts reviewing the Matt Niskanen-for-Radko Gudas that sent Niskanen to Philadelphia thought the Caps might have gotten the better part of the deal, Gudas’ underlying numbers being better recently, and Niskanen’s performance last season perhaps signaling a decline.  However, while the jury remains out on who might have won that trade, Niskanen has contributed some pop from the blue line for the Flyers that was not there for the Caps last season.  His five goals is tied with Shayne Gostisbehere for second on the club among defensemen, and his 12 assists and 17 points place him alone in second behind Ivan Provorov.  Niskanen’s goals-assists-points per game (0.12-0.29-0.41) resemble more Niskanen’s production two years ago in Washington (0.10-0.32-0.43) than is does last year’s (0.10-0.21-0.31).  He has hit a bit of a dry spell lately.  After posting a two-point game against Buffalo on December 19^th, Niskanen is 0-1-1, minus-6, in his last six games.  He is 1-5-6, plus-8, in 13 career games against Washington.

If you are going to beat Carter Hart in Philadelphia, bring a lunch.  It’s going to be a long day.  Hart has started 14 games in goal for the Flyers in Philadelphia this season and boasts an 11-1-2 record.  He has hardly been a passenger in the effort.  Nine times in 14 games he posted save percentages over .940.  Only once in those 14 games did he post a save percentage under .900, stopping 12 of 15 shots (.800) in a 4-1 loss to Dallas on October 19^th, his only regulation loss on home ice this season.  The question for this game is whether it his home record or his most recent performance that will emerge.  In his last four appearances, all on the road, he is 0-3-0 (one no-decision), 5.23, .830.  Hart is 0-1-1, 2.43, .925 in two career appearances against the Caps.

1.  The Flyers have employed 39 goaltenders against the Caps in the all-time series.  None, save one, has as many as ten wins.  The exception is Ron Hextall, who was 25-13 (six ties) against the Caps in 44 games.

2.  Still on goalies… No Flyer netminder has ever posted more than one career shutout against the Caps while a Flyer.  Nine have done it once: Hextall, Dominic Roussel, Ilya Bryzgalov, Darren Jensen, Joh Vanbiesbrouck, Bernie Parent, Brian Buocher, Tommy Soderstrom, and Bob Froese.

3.  Hextall was the epitome of the “Broad Street Bully: Goalie Edition.”  In 44 career regular season games against the Caps, he had 44 penalty minutes.

4.  The Flyers have been successful at home this season in no small part to their scoring balance.  Eight different skaters have at least 12 points, but none of them have as many as 20 (Sean Couturier and Travis Konecny have 19).

5.  The defense has been especially valuable to the Flyers on home ice.  As a group, they have combined for 17 goals in 19 home games (seven on power plays), and none of the defensemen carry a minus rating.

1.  An illustration of how much turnover and how frequent it occurs in the NHL… The current roster of Caps skaters has a total of 79 goals against the Flyers as members of the Caps.  Of that total, 52 of them are shared by Alex Ovechkin (34) and Nicklas Backstrom (18).  No other Capital has more than five goals against the Flyers with the club (T.J. Oshie, Tom Wilson, and Dmitry Orlov).

2.  The Caps have scored multiple power play goals 22 times in Philadelphia.  They have not been especially successful in doing it, going 10-9-1 (two ties).

3.  Washington will want to avoid allowing two or more power play goals to the Flyers.  In 27 games in which they allowed two or more power play goals in Philadelphia, the Caps are 3-22-1 (1 tie).

4. Keeping the Flyers from getting off quickly could be important.  Since 2005-2006, the Caps are 10-2-4 in 16 games in Philadelphia when blanking the Flyers in the first period.

5.  In 220 games between these teams and all the animosity and orneriness displayed over more than 40 years battling one another, only one player for either team has ever been assessed a match penalty.  The Caps’ Craig Berube was tagged with an intent-to-injure penalty in the waning moments of a 5-3 loss to the Flyers in Philadelphia on February 13, 1995.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Philadelphia: Travis Konecny

There are names among the Flyers that Caps fans will instantly recognize – veteran Claude Giroux, former Cap Matt Niskanen, the latest Great Masked Hope in goal, Carter Hart.  But how many, when they hear the name “Travis Konecny,” think…”oh yeah, he’s a Flyer, too?”  But there he is, a 22-year old with his Flyer future spread out before him, but already in his fourth NHL season.  What he has become, in his young career to date, is a player of almost spooky consistency.  He followed up a solid rookie season (11-17-28 in 70 games) by going 24-23-47 in 81 games in his sophomore season, and they going 24-25-49 in 82 games last season.  In 39 games played this season he is 12-24-36 (team leader in points), his goal scoring on pace to finish with, yes, 24 goals once more.

Konecny has been potent on home ice thus far for the Flyers this season, his 8-11-19 scoring line matching that of Sean Couturier to tie for the team lead in goals and points on home ice for the orange and black.  As a player on whom the club depends for scoring punch, his contributions matter.  The Flayers are 11-1-0 on home ice in games in which he recorded at least one point, and they are 2-1-4 in those games he did not.  What he is also getting this season is more power play responsibility.  After averaging a little over a minute and a half per game in his first three seasons, he is averaging 2:47 per game on the power play so far this season.  Konecny is 2-0-2, minus-1, in 12 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

It would be fair to say that the NHL party started for Nicklas Backstrom on the Wells Fargo Center ice sheet.  Backstrom was a rookie learning the ropes in the NHL in the fall of 2007, and he was putting together some decent numbers.  In his first 21 games he was 1-8-9, earning single points in nine games, and averaging a little under 16 minutes a game, but playing as much wing as center.  Then, the Caps made a coaching change at Thanksgiving, replacing Glen Hanlon with Bruce Boudreau. 

The first game under the new coach was against the Flyers in Philadelphia.  It did not take long for Backstrom to show the new coach what he had in the rookie center.  Backstrom got the primary assist on a Mike Green power play goal in the third minute of the first period to open the scoring.  After Chris Clark gave the Caps a 2-0 lead early in the second period, the Caps struck again in the 15^th minute, Donald Brashear getting the goal and Backstrom contributing the secondary assist to give him his first career multi-point game.  The Flyers came back, though, with three unanswered goals to tie the game late in regulation.  With just under two minutes gone in the overtime session, it was Backstrom who would end it with an assist from Alex Ovechkin, a pair that would define – and continue to define – Caps hockey for more than a decade.  For Backstrom, it was his first three-point game of a total that has reached 80 in his career, fifth-most among all players since he entered the league.  And starting with that rookie season, only one player in the league has scored more points against the Flyers in Philadelphia than the 33 posted by Backstrom.  Sidney Crosby has 34.  Backstrom is 18-35-53, plus-14, in 46 games overall in his career against the Flyers.

In the end…

Do not let the Flyers’ recent sluggishness distract; there is no more formidable team in the league on home ice than the Flyers this season.  Even when they lose, they make it difficult.  Among their six losses at Wells Fargo Center, four were in extra time, and another was a two-goal loss that featured a late empty net power play goal in Arizona’s 3-1 win over the Flyers in early December.  It would not be a surprise to see these teams go once more to extra time to settle this one, but in the end, the result will be the same. 

Capitals 2 – Flyers 1

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 44: Senators at Capitals, January 7th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return to the Capital One Arena ice sheet on Tuesday night to host the Ottawa Senators.  On paper, this looks like a mismatch, the Caps on top of the league standings, and the Senators 14th in the 16-team Eastern Conference and losers of four in a row.  But these kinds of games pose special challenges, even to talented teams like the Caps.

Then and Now…

The Capitals and Senators will meet for the 97^th time on Tuesday, the Caps holding a 50-36-5 (five ties) record against Ottawa, 29-13-2 (four ties) on home ice.  Since 2005-2006, the Caps are 29-15-5 overall against the Senators and 18-4-2 on home ice.

Active Leaders vs. Opponent…

Noteworthy Opponents…

It seems that teams have are having troubles often have outliers on the positive side of things.  Sometimes it is a goal scorer, sometimes it is a goalie with a save percentage that outperforms his records.  With the Ottawa Senators, it is a player with a noteworthy plus-minus number.  The Senators have dressed only six skaters this season who carry a positive plus-minus rating into this game, and six of them are plus-7 or worse.  The outlier is forward Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who is a plus-16 on a poor team.  That is tied for 15^th in the league.  The next best Senator in this category, Dylan DeMelo, is tied for 91^st at plus-7.  Plus-minus has its limits as a statistic, but outliers serve to illustrate that there are good overall performances are being had from players, even on a team that struggles.

Not that Pageau lags in other statistical categories for the Senators.  He is second in goals (19), second in points (30) and is a team best 19.2 percent shooting among players dressing for at least five games.  Those 19 goals have already tied the career high he set in 2015-2016, and his 59-point pace would leave far behind his career best to date, 43 points in that 2015-2016 season.  Pageau also happens to be second among Ottawa forwards in average shorthanded ice time (2:33 per game), an illustration of his responsibilities on the defensive side of the puck.  The Senators depend heavily on his contributions, the team posting a 3-13-3 record in the 19 games in which he failed to record a point.  What he has yet to do in his career is record a point against the Caps.  He is without on, and is a minus-9, in 16 career games against Washington.

Ottawa has already dressed 11 defensemen this season.  Only two of them have dressed for all 42 games played by the Senators going into their game with the Caps.  They are very different types of defensemen, too.  Thomas Chabot is the “offensive” type, leading the Ottawa blueliners in assists (21),  points (25), and shots on goal (113); and serving as the triggerman on the Senators’ power play (seven points, all assists).  He is also the minutes eater for the club, averaging 26:22 per game, almost four minutes more than any other defenseman (Nikita Zaitsev: 22:31).  Nevertheless, he is lagging from the performance pace he set last year, establishing career bests in goals (14), assists (41), and points (55) despite skating for two more minutes per game than he did last season (24:17).  His ice time reflects some of the frustration the Senators have faced this season.  A struggling team often needs its offensive weapons to log higher ice times to keep them in or help them come back in games.  However, in 23 games in which Chabot skated more than 26 minutes (most in the league), the Senators are just 7-11-5.  On the other hand, they have not lost when he skated less than 22:30 in a game this season (6-0-0).  In four career regular season games against the Caps, Chabot is 0-1-1, minus-4.

The other defenseman to dress for all 42 games this season for Ottawa is Mark Borowiecki.  He is not a subtle player.  Over the last six seasons, including this one, no defenseman has amassed more penalty minutes than Borowiecki (575) and is fifth overall.  That penalty minute total would be much higher had he not missed 59 games over the previous two seasons to a variety of injuries and two suspensions.  This season has been a bit different for Borowiecki, though.  He has five goals already, a career high and matching the total he scored in 175 games over the previous three seasons.  He has 11 assists, another career high, as are his 16 points.  If his game hasn’t mellowed, the improvements on offense have come with a moderation in his play outside the rules.  He has 54 penalty minutes in 42 games, the 1.29 penalty minutes per game being the second lowest for a full season in his career (1.23 minutes per game in 52 games in 2017-2018).  Borowiecki has dialed it down even more in terms of games in which he has been penalized.  He logged penalty minutes in only 11 of 41 games to date, although the Senators have not suffered much for it, relative to their performance overall.  They are 5-6-0 in those 11 games Borowiecki spent time in the box.  Meanwhile, Ottawa is 7-5-2 in the 14 games in which he recorded a point.  Borowiecki is looking for his first career point against the Caps, having played 12 games against them with a minus-4 rating.

1.  Ottawa does not have a power play goal from a defenseman this season.

2.  The Senators’ special teams on the road are struggling mightily.  Their 9.4 percent power play is 30^th of 31 teams, their 78.8 percent penalty kill ranks 15^th, and their 88.2 special teams index value (sum of power play and penalty kill values) is 29^th of 31 teams (Detroit is 79.2, and Buffalo is 86.3).

3.  Scoring first does not seem to matter to Ottawa, at least on the road.  Not that it happens often.  The Senators have scored the game’s first goal on the road four times in 22 road games this season (fewest in the league) and have one win to show for it (also fewest in the league).

4.  In that same vein, no team has fewer first period goals scored on the road than Ottawa.  Their 11 goals are tied with Dallas for fewest in the league, but the Stars have played three fewer road games.

5.  Ottawa has allowed the fourth-highest number of goals on the road this season (83), and they have been consistent about it over the course of games – 28 in the first period, 27 in the second period, and 26 in the third period, with two more in overtime to reach the total.

1.  Only four teams have allowed fewer third period goals on home ice than the Caps (17): Pittsburgh (16), Carolina (14), Columbus (11), and St. Louis (9).

2.  The Caps have scored six goals at 6-on-5 this season on home ice, twice as many as the teams with the second-most (Calgary and Tampa Bay).

3.  Only Boston has more wins on home ice this season when trailing after two periods (four) than the Caps (three, tied with three other teams).

4.  No team in the Eastern Conference averages more penalty minutes per game on home ice than the Caps (10:24); only Anaheim averages more overall (11:31).

5.  Through 43 games, 19 different Capitals have hit a post or a crossbar at least once.  All of last season the team had 20 players hitting iron at least once.  Jakub Vrana leads the team with eight misses of the hitting pipe sort (all hit posts).  Radko Gudas is the only one of 19 skaters playing in at least 20 games so far (including the departed Chandler Stephenson) not to have hit iron once.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Ottawa: Craig Anderson

Craig Anderson owns the top ranking of just about every goaltending statistical category worth having in Senators franchise history – games (421), wins (197), save percentage (.914, among goalies with at least 100 games played for the club), shutouts (28), and even points (11).  But he has a couple not worth having, too – regulation losses (161) and overtime losses (45).  And, of the seven goalies to have appeared in at least 100 games for the franchise, his 2.82 goals against average is the highest in the group.  He has seen just about everything in his ten seasons with Ottawa.  He has been a 30-win goalie twice (33 wins in 2011-2012 and 31 wins in 2015-2016), and he has been a 30-loss goalie twice, including regulation and extra time losses (31 losses in 2017-2018 and 31 losses last season).

At age 38, he is on the home stretch of his career, and one concession being made to that is a lighter workload.  Part of that this season is his having missed time to a lower body injury, but he still has started one fewer game (18) than Anders Nilsson (19), who himself has had to deal with injury, absent from the lineup with a concussion since mid-December.  Anderson has performed admirably in Nilsson’s absence, going 3-3-1 (one no-decision), 2.83, .910 in eight appearances.  However, he has spun out recently, losing his last three decisions (0-2-1) while stopping just 78 of 91 shots (.857 save percentage).  If Anderson gets the call in this game, it will be an odd departure of sorts.  He has logged only 66:49 in ice time on the road since Thanksgiving, none of it since December 7^th.  That is largely due to Ottawa having a home-heavy schedule since December 7^th (eight of 12 games), but it will be something to watch.  Anderson is 11-8-2, 2.46, .918, with two shutouts in 22 career appearances against the Caps.

Washington: Radko Gudas

Well, Caps fans, how do you like him now?  Having arrived in Washington with something of a “bad boy” reputation, Radko Gudas has been reliable and consistent, if not entirely rid of his edgy ways.  Yes, he leads all Caps defensemen in penalty minutes (34), but he is one of four Caps defensemen in double digits in points (13) and is on a pace to set a career high in that category (25) that would eclipse the 23 points he recorded with Philadelphia in 2016-2017.  The Caps have only lost twice in regulation in which he logged more than 18 minutes in ice time (10-2-2). 

His physicality within the rules has been a feature of wins, the Caps going 18-4-2 in the 24 games in which he was credited with three or more hits.  They are 12-2-1 in games in which he recorded two or more blocked shots.  And on those occasions in which he has not been engaged in the offensive end, at least as measured in shots on goal, the Caps have still flourished, going 7-1-2 in the ten games in which he did not record a shot on goal.  He has picked up that offense of late, going 1-5-6, plus-6, over his last ten games.  Gudas is 1-6-7, plus-1, in 20 career games against Ottawa.

In the end…

A weeknight game against a weak team, following up on a thrilling, historic come-from-behind win in overtime.  Gee, what could go wrong?  This is the very definition of a “trap” game, the Caps coming off that big win against San Jose on Sunday to face a team that is playing better than the prognosticators thought they might before the season started.  It is the sort of game that tests a team’s discipline and maturity.  The Caps have displayed a considerable amount of the latter, something to be expected from a veteran team.  It is the former – discipline – that has been the challenge.  It is the lack of discipline – the penalties taken, the wandering focus from time to time – that could allow the Senators a path to victory.  We like the Caps’ chances of blocking that path.

Capitals 5 – Senators 2

A TWO-Point Afternoon: Washington Capitals -- Game 43: Capitals 5 - Sharks 4 (OT)

The Washington Capitals wrapped up their season series with the San Jose Sharks on Sunday afternoon at Capital One Arena. The Caps fell behind, allowed the Sharks to take a two-goal lead twice, including on an empty net goal with one minute left in regulation, but then put on as unbelievable a finish as the franchise has ever seen, scoring two goals in the last 47 seconds of regulation to tie the game, then winning it in overtime, 5-4.

First Period

The Caps had the best chance early on when Jakub Vrana beat Sharks goalie Martin Jones in the eighth minute of the contest, but his shot found the post and rattled out to leave the game scoreless.  It would be the high point of a first period with chances that were not converted that ended scoreless.

-- San Jose had a 13-10 edge in shots and a 24-19 advantage in shot attempts.

-- Dmitry Orlov led the Caps with three shots on goal; no other Cap had more than one.

-- Garnet Hathaway was credited with three hits, half the Caps’ total for the period.

Second Period

Just over a minute into the period, San Jose appeared to get the game’s first goal when Barclay Goodrow redirected a shot down and to the right of goalie Braden Holtby’s right pad.  However, the goal was immediately washed out by the referee, who ruled that Goodrow’s stick was above the crossbar when he made contact with the puck.

San Jose did strike first after Richard Panik was sent to the penalty box for hi-sticking.  Joe Thornton controlled the puck deep in the corner to Holtby’s right.  He deked defenseman Nick Jensen to the ice, circled in, and then found Evander Kane for a one-timer from the edge of the left wing circle to make it 1-0, 6:25 into the period.

The lead lasted barely a minute.  Brendan Leipsic outraced Marc-Edouard Vlasic to a loose puck along the right wing wall, and Leipsic flicked into the middle for a Nic Dowd one-timer that beat Jones at the 7:29 mark to tie the game.

The fourth line continued to drive action, Garnet Hathaway drawing a slashing penalty from Kane to put the Caps on a power play at the 7:56 mark. The Caps failed to convert, and it cost them.  Logan Couture fed Kane coming out of the box and cut in front of him to create a screen in front of Holtby.  Kane snapped a shot through that screen to beat Holtby past his right pad to make it 2-1, Sharks, 10:06 into the period.

Kane completed the hat trick, converting another power play chance.  With Radko Gudas off for slashing, Erik Karlsson sent a drive that caromed off the shin of Garnet Hathaway right onto Kane’s stick.  He wasted no time in rocketing a shot through Holtby to make it 3-1, 16:49 into the period.

The Caps inched to within a goal on some sloppy play by the Sharks behind their own net.  T.J. Oshie muffled a lazy attempt by Vlasic to move the puck along the end boards, circled out from behind the net, and found Jakub Vrana all alone in the right wing circle.  Vrana had time and space to pick his spot, and he dialed up and snap shot under the crossbar to make it 3-2 at the 18:42 mark.

The Caps had a chance in the dying seconds of the period, Evgeny Kuznetsov on a breakaway down the left side.  Cutting to the net, he tried to curl the puck between his legs and wrong-foot a shot on Jones’ blocker side, but Kuznetsov lost control of the puck before he could attempt the shot.  The teams went to the locker room with the Caps down a goal, 3-2.

-- The Caps had a 12-11 edge in shots on goal for the period, but San Jose had a 22-17 advantage in shot attempts.

-- Nick Jensen led the Caps in ice time through two periods with 15:57, 9:04 of that coming in the second period.

-- Jakub Vrana (three shots, two misses) and Radko Gudas (two shots, two blocked shots, one miss) led the Caps with five shot attempts apiece through two periods.

Third Period

Nic Dowd made his way to the penalty box in the fifth minute of the period for sending the puck off the rink from the defensive end.  San Jose did not score, but the Caps could not find the equalizer, either.

The teams continued back and forth for most of the period, the Caps unable to find the tying goal and the Sharks unable to put things away.  San Jose did get insurance late with an empty netter with one minute left to make it 4-2, but the Caps got it back immediately when Vrana was left alone between the hash marks to tale a pass from Lars Eller and beat Jones to the glove side with 47 seconds left.

The Caps found a way to tie the game in the waning seconds.  Nicklas Backstrom and Evgeny Kuznetsov worked the puck back and forth along the right wing wall, Kuznetsov ending up with it in the corner.  He sent a no-look wrap-around pass to T.J. Oshie in the right wing circle, and Oshie one-timed the puck past Jones to tie the game with 15 seconds left in regulation.

Overtime

The Caps needed two minutes to end it.  Braden Holtby, who had two superb stops in the extra session, calmly sent a pass from his crease up along the right wing side and off the wall, where John Carlson took it in stride.  Carlson circled up ice and into the offensive zone with Lars Eller on a developing 2-on-1.  Carlson sent the puck across, Eller fished it out of his skates, and he snapped a shot past Jones to send the Caps faithful home in a happy, if surprised, frame of mind in the 5-4 win.

Other stuff…

-- What a finish.  After scoring two goals on their first 26 shots in the first 59:13, the Caps scored three goals on three shots in 2:48 to win it in overtime.

-- Goalie Braden Holtby earned the second assist on the game-winning goal.  It was his first point of the season and 11^th career point for the Caps.

-- T.J. Oshie’s game-tying goal was the Caps’ sixth at 6-on-5 this season, tying them with Florida and Buffalo for the league lead (edit: the Caps had two 6-on-5 goals, giving them seven, most in the league)

-- Jakub Vrana had two goals, his eighth career two-goal game.

-- T.J. Oshie had a two-point game (1-1-2), extending his points streak to three games.

-- Lars Eller had a two-point game (1-1-2), his fifth of the season and first on home ice.

-- Vrana and Dmitry Orlov led the club with four shots apiece; John Carlson had seven shot attempts to lead the team.

-- The teams finished even in shots on goal with 29 apiece; the Sharks led in shot attempts, 62-52.

-- Per NBC Sports Washington, this was the first time in franchise history that the Caps won a game when trailing by two goals in the last minute.

-- That was the first home game this season in which Braden Holtby allowed more than three goals and won.

In the end…

This game will not go into the annals of the best games played by the Caps from a purist’s standpoint.  But it put on display the team’s veteran makeup, constantly pushing, even when down two goals; and it illustrated Yogi Berra’s timeless wisdom that “it’s not over ‘til it’s over.”  Take away what you will from this game, and it was frustrating, annoying (that Kane fellow), depressing at points.  But for 2:48 at the end of the game, it was quite a thrill ride of the sort that can serve to shake the Caps out of their recent doldrums and back on the path of dominance they have displayed for most of the season.

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 14

The Washington Capitals flipped the calendar to a new year and passed the half-way point on their schedule in Week 14.  Two games were on the schedule, both against divisional rivals.  When the ice chips settled, it was a break-even week that left the Caps still at the top of the league standings.

Record: 1-1-0

Week 14 extended a string of games against Metropolitan Division rivals to four.  When it was over, the Caps were 6-5-1 overall against the six teams in the Metro they have faced this season (they have not yet faced Pittsburgh).  They have compiled the record by beating each of the six divisional rivals they have faced once apiece, the win over Carolina to end the week the Caps’ first in three games against the Hurricanes to date (1-1-1).  The loss to the New York Islanders to open the week squared the Caps record against the Isles at 1-1-0.  The win over Carolina also enabled the Caps to reach 61 points for the season, tying this year’s team with the 2016-2017 team (also 28-9-5) for second-most points earned through 42 games, trailing only the 2015-2016 team that had 67 points through 43 games (32-7-3).

Offense: 3.50/game (season: 3.50/5th)

Two games do not make for great opportunities for offensive fireworks, but the Caps did manage seven goals in the two games, three in a loss to the Islanders and four in a win over Carolina.  It extended a run of consistency for the Caps, who finished Week 14 having posted at least three goals in eight of ten games, averaging 3.30 goals per game over that stretch.  The Caps have been even more productive on the road of late, the four goals in Carolina on Friday giving them 17 goals in their last four road games since being shut out in Columbus, 3-0, on December 16^th.

Evgeny Kuznetsov had the big week for the Caps, recording three of the team’s seven goals.  The three goals gave him 16 in 39 games this season and have him closing in on the 21 goals he posted in 76 games last season.  He is on a pace to finish with 32 goals, which would be his first 30-goal season in seven years with the Caps.

Four other Caps posted single goals each for the week: Richard Panik, Lars Eller, Tom Wilson, and Jakub Vrana, whose goal was the game-winner in the win over Carolina.  Kuznetsov led the club in points for the week (four), while five Caps had a pair each: Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, Alex Ovechkin, Dmitry Orlov, and Eller.

Defense: 3.50/game (season: 2.93/T-9th)

It was a strange week on the defensive side of the puck, the Caps allowing four goals and losing in a game in which they allowed only 22 shots on goal; and then allowing three goals and winning on a night when they allowed 41 shots on goal.  The 22 shots on goal that the Caps allowed to the New York Islanders was the third-lowest volume of shots allowed in a game this season and a season-low for shots allowed on home ice.  The 41 shots that Carolina rung up on the Caps was the second-highest volume of shots allowed by the Caps this season, topped only by the 44 shots allowed to Chicago in a 5-3 win on October 20^th.  Both games ended in wins for the Caps.

The shot attempts reflected the same pattern.  Against the Isles, against whom the Caps had a lead for only 3:47 of 60 minutes, the Caps were a plus-32 in shot attempt differential at 5-on-5 when behind on their way to a plus-33 for the game (their biggest shot attempt differential at 5-on-5 this season) and allowing the Islanders only 39 shot attempts at fives.  It was a different story against Carolina, who lit up the Caps for 53 shot attempts, a shot attempt total exceeded on the road only three times this season, while the minus-19 differential in shot attempts at 5-on-5 was tied for third-worst for the Caps overall so far this season.

Goaltending: 3.56 / .889 (season: 2.76 / .907)

If not for the excellent play of Ilya Samsonov recently, especially on the road, the Caps would likely find themselves, if not in jeopardy of dropping out of a playoff spot, then looking up at one or more teams in the standings.  That is because Braden Holtby is in something of a funk these days.  He allowed four goals on the first 15 shots he faced on his way to an 18-save effort on 22 shots against the Islanders in the 4-3 loss to open the week.  That brought Holtby’s record to 2-5-0, 3.71, .871 over his last seven appearances. 

As for Samsonov, he continued his remarkable record on the road.  His 38-save effort in the Caps’ 4-3 win in Carolina to end the week brought his overall record to 11-2-1, 2.33, .918; and his road record to 8-0-0, 2.19, .918. He became the first goalie to win his first eight road decisions in the NHL in a single season (Brent Johnson won his first 11 road decisions in the NHL, but those were spread over his first two seasons).  With 11 wins overall in 15 games, Samsonov tied Jim Bedard for sixth-place in wins by a rookie goalie in Caps history. 

Power Play: 2-for-6/33.3 percent (season: 22.1 percent/10th)

It wasa good week, even if the opportunities on the power play were on the light side.  Against the Islanders, the Caps were given only two power play chances, failing to convert on either one.  It was the 17^th time this season that the Caps had tw or fewer power play chances, the tenth time among those instances that they failed to record at least one power play goal.  Oddly enough, it was only the second time among those ten times being blanked that the Caps lost in regulation, both times taking place on home ice (the other loss was to Colorado in October).

The Caps had four chances against Carolina, the 14^th time this season the Caps have had four or more power play opportunities in a game and the second time in Carolina in a week.  They scored twice on four chances, the sixth time that they scored two goals when getting four or more power plays (also the second time in Carolina in a week; they had two on five chances last Saturday).

Overall, the Caps were efficient in shooting, if not in generating shots with the man advantage.  In 9:26 of power play ice time, the Caps scored twice on seven shots, recording both goals on just three shots in Carolina with 6:26 of power play ice time.

Penalty Killing: 6-for-8/75.0 percent (season: 84.2 percent/3rd)

It would have been a great week, efficiency-wise, if the week was only five periods.  The Caps killed both shorthanded situations against the Islanders to open the week, and then they were 4-for-4 through two periods of their game against Carolina.  The Hurricanes put an end to that with a pair of power play strikes six minutes apart on two chances in the third period to make a comfortable 4-1 lead a little too close for comfort.

The two chances the Caps allowed the Islanders was the 12^th time this season the Caps faced two or fewer power plays in a game.  As evidence of the best penalty kill being the one you don’t have to use, the Caps allowed only one goal in those 12 games in 19 shorthanded situations, that one coming on Opening Night in St. Louis when the Caps allowed the Blues one goal on two chances.  The six chances that the Caps gave to the Hurricanes was the fifth time this season that Washington faced six or more shorthanded situations.  It was the second time that the Caps allowed two goals in those instances, and brought the total to five goals on 33 chances in those five games.  That the Caps improved their record to 4-1-0 in those games might be a case of generating false confidence; this does not seem to be a recipe for success in the long run.

Faceoffs: 53-for-111/47.7 percent (season: 49.4 percent/20th)

It was tale of twos in Week 14 for the Caps.  They won one game handily and lost the other equally so in the faceoff circle; they were good in one end for the week, not so good in the other.  Washington dominated the Islanders in the first game of the week, winning 31 of 53 draws (58.5 percent), mostly by dominating in the offensive end (16-22/72.7 percent).  Against Carolina it was a different story, the Caps going 22-for-58 (37.9 percent), finishing under 50 percent in all three zones.  As it was, the Caps finished the week 24-for-41 in the offensive end (58.5 percent), but they were only 13-for-34 (38.2 perent) in the defensive end.

Individually, Nicklas Backstrom had a very good week in both ends, going 9-for-13 (69.2 percent) in the offensive end and 5-for-6 in the defensive end (83.3 percent) on his way to a 17-for-26 week (65.4 percent).  He was the only Capital among three taking at least ten draws to finish over 50 percent for the week.

Goals by Period:

The goals were split equally between the Caps and opponents for the week, and the goals were spread relatively smoothly among the period for the Caps and their foes.  It was how the Caps got there, particularly in the goals allowed department, that merited notice.  They started and ended the week in leaky fashion, allowing the Islanders two first period goals and allowing the Hurricanes to post three in the third period of their contest.

The Caps could stand to get off to better starts than they have to date.  While they finished the week with a plus-11 goal differential in each of the second and third periods of games, the only club with goal differentials greater than plus-10 in both the second and third periods to date, they have managed only to break even (37 goals for and against) so far.

Year-over-Year:

The Caps have regressed over the past couple of weeks to resemble more and more last year’s club on a year-over-year basis.  The difference is down to two wins and five standings points over last year’s club, while the scoring for and against is now almost identical, the difference being on more goal scored this year than last.  The Caps this year continue to maintain a healthy edge over last year’s squad in shot differential overall and shot attempt differential at 5-on-5.  Special teams are also better with this year’s group, particularly on the penalty kill, which is more than six percentage points clear of last year’s squad and is one of the best units in the league.  There is, however, the matter of penalties, which are up more than eight percent over last year, and penalty minutes, up by more than 16 percent over last year at a similar point of the season.

In the end…

The Caps have gotten a head start on the long barren slog of the winter months with only one regulation win in their last five games (2-3-0).  But every team goes through this at some point.  Well, perhaps not Tampa Bay last year, although they saved their cold spell for when it counted in the spring.  It makes all those points the Caps banked early, especially on the road, important as they try to keep the Islanders, Penguins, and Hurricanes small images in their rear-view mirror.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (1-3-4, even, 5 shots on goal, 6 shot attempts)
• Second Star: Ilya Samsonov (1-0-0, 3.02, .927)
• Third Star: Lars Eller (1-1-2, plus-4, 3 shots on goal)

Captain rates the week…

Two puppers

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 43: Sharks at Capitals, January 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return to home ice on Sunday afternoon to host the San Jose Sharks in a matchup of teams who got their 2020 schedules off to a good start with wins.  The Caps will be trying to use their win over Carolina on Saturday as a foothold on which to return to their winning ways, while the Sharks are hoping their overtime win over Pittsburgh signals a reversal from a disastrous December that saw them sink out of sight of a playoff spot.

Then and Now…

Sunday will mark the 45^th time these teams have met, the Caps holding a 15-24-4 (one tie) record in the series to date, 7-11-4 on home ice.  Since 2005-2006, Washington is 7-11-4 against the Sharks overall and 2-4-4 in DC.  The Caps go into this game with a five-game points streak against the Sharks (4-0-1).

Active Leaders vs. Opponent…

Noteworthy Opponents…

San Jose had a ghastly December, going 2-9-2, the worst record in the league for the month.  They were awful on both sides of the puck, their 27 goals tying Detroit for fewest in December, their 47 goals allowed tying Ottawa for sixth-most allowed.  On the offensive side of the puck, they just did not get much production from their old guard.  Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton, who have combined for almost 1,000 goals (972) and more than 3,300 games played (3,303) in their respective careers, combined for two goals, one apiece, in 13 games in December.  Thornton has been more of a set-up man in his career, seventh all-time in career assists in the NHL (1,080), but that one goal he had in December is his only goal this season. 

It is part of a late-career drop-off in goal scoring for the 22-year veteran, who has 37 goals over his last 241 games over the last three and a half seasons.  His assists are down as well, the 15 he has in 42 games being his lowest on a per-game basis (0.36 assists per game) since his sophomore season in the NHL, in 1998-1999, when he averaged 0.31 assists per game in 81 games for the Boston Bruins.  Is Thornton coming out of his half-season slump?  He has points in three of his last four games (1-3-4), but he had points in three of four games (0-3-3) in late November before going 0-3-3 in his next 11 games.  His production tracks with his ice time, to a point, the 14:37 in ice time per game being the lowest of his career.  The 40-year old Thornton, who contemplated retirement last summer, is on a one-year contract this season at $2.0 million, and one cannot but wonder if it is the last one he will have with the Sharks.  In 47 career games against the Capitals, he is 17-32-49, plus-9.

Marleau is the all-time franchise leader, or close to it, in a lot of offensive categories – games played (1,531/1^st), goals (515/1^st), assists (582/2^nd), points (1,097/1^st), power play goals (161/1^st), shorthanded goals (17/1^st), and game-winning goals (99/1^st).  He has only seven goals in 38 games so far this season, the 0.18 goals per game being his lowest output since he averaged 0.18 goals per game in 74 games in his rookie season with the Sharks in 1997-1998.  The same applies for his assist production, his 0.21 assists per game being the lowest of his career.  Like Thornton, production and ice time have a relationship with Marleau.  He is averaging 15:33 per game, his lowest ice time per game since he averaged 14:04 with the Sharks in 2001-2002. 

Marleau started the season respectably, posting six point in his first six games (2-4-6).  But then, he recorded only five points in his next 17 games (4-1-5) and followed that up with an 11-game streak without a point.  He has been more visible of late, going 1-3-4 in his last four games heading into the Sunday contest.  Marleau, who has spent most of his career with the Sharks, returned this season to the club after spending two seasons with the Toronto Maple Leafs.  The Leafs traded him to the Carolina Hurricanes last June with a conditional first round pick and a 2020 seventh round pick for a sixth-round pick.  Carolina subsequently bought Marleau out, and he signed a one-year/$700,000 deal in October to return to San Jose.  He, like Thornton a 40-year old (they are the second and third oldest players in the league), might be playing on his last contract as well.  In 34 career games against Washington, Marleau is 9-14-23, plus-4.

Through Friday, 40 goaltenders logged at least 1,000 minutes this season.  Among them, Martin Jones ranked 34^th in goals against average (3.13) and 38^th in save percentage (.893).  He was last in the league in even strength save percentage (.886) among all goalies appearing in at least ten games.  It has to be of considerable concern for the Sharks, who have seen Jones’ goals against average rise from 2.27 in his first year with the club (2016-2017, after arriving from the Los Angeles Kings), and his save percentage drop from .918 that same season. If he finishes this season with a save percentage under .900, it will be his second straight season under that threshold.

December was unkind to Jones, who was either bad or unlucky, or both.  He was 1-7-0, 3.45, .882 in eight games, but twice he had game save percentages of .935 or better and lost, a 3-1 loss to Nashville in which he allowed two goals on 31 shots, and his last appearance in which he stopped 21 of 22 shots in a 2-0 loss to Detroit on New Year’s Eve.  Jones has struggled on the road, where he is 3-8-1 (one no-decision), 3.34, .889 in 13 appearances.  Jones lost all four of his decisions in December on the road with a 3.04 goals against average and a .896 save percentage.  In nine career appearances against the Caps, Jones is 5-4-0, 2.79, .904.  It is worth noting, though, that after shutting out the Caps in his first two visits to Washington with the Sharks, he stopped only 58 of 68 shots (.853 save percentage) in his last two visits to DC, splitting two decisions.

1.  San Jose’s power play on the road in December would have a hard time keeping an appliance bulb lit.  They were 1-for-16 (6.3 percent), the worst power play on the road in the league in December.

2.  How many players would you have gone through on the Sharks roster before settling on Kevin Labanc as the Shark with the only power play goal on the road for December (against Florida)?

3.  In going 0-4-1 on the road in December, the Sharks never led at either intermission in the five games.  They allowed the first goal in all five games as well.

4.  In five road games in December, San Jose scored a total of five goals, no Shark with more than one.

5.  No Shark had a multi-point game on the road in December.

1.  The Caps might be happy to get at least a couple of home games this week.  Only Los Angeles and Montreal had fewer home games in December (four apiece) than the Caps (five).

2.  The Caps were 21-for-21 killing penalties on home ice in December, the only team with a perfect penalty kill on home ice for the month.

3.  The flip side of that is that the Caps were shorthanded 4.20 times per game on home ice in December, most in the league.

4.  Odd stat… the Caps had a “net” penalty kill of over 100 percent in December, owing to the fact that they had one shorthanded goal scored, thus leaving them with a net penalty kill for the month of 104.8.

5.  In five games on home ice in December, the Caps never held a lead after one period, the only team in the league failing to do so.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

San Jose: Brent Burns

Over a five-year period ending with the 2018-2019 season, Brent Burns put up some impressive statistics from the blue line.  He was tied for second in games played among defensemen (410, trailing Keith Yandle’s 412), first in goals by a wide margin (101 to 84 for Oliver Ekman-Larsson), tied with Erik Karlsson for most assists (260), first in points by a wide margin (361 to 326 for Karlsson), first in even strength goals (65), third in power play goals (34), second in game-winning goals (20), and third in minutes played (10,252).

This season, though, the numbers have slipped some in tandem with just about everyone else on the team.  His seven goals in 42 games (0.17 per game) is slightly off last year’s pace (0.20 goals per game), while his assists have fallen off more (from 0.82 per game to 0.50 per game), as have his points (from 1.01 per game to 0.67).  An important offensive weapon with a deadly shot, he has seen his shots drop off as well.  Averaging 2.86 shots per game, Burns has his lowest average since recording 2.70 shots per game with the Sharks in 2012-2013.  He has been more active and more productive lately, though, averaging 3.71 shots per game over his last seven contests while going 2-5-7.  Burns is 6-11-17, minus-2, in 19 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Garnet Hathaway

Fourth liners are supposed to be “energy” guys who can aggravate, stimulate, occasionally intimidate, and chip in some offense from time to time.  Garnet Hathaway was just that in December.  He had, for a fourth liner, good offensive production (4-1-5 in 13 games), his lone goal being the game-winner in a 5-2 win over Tampa Bay on December 14^th.  He had a two-point game (both goals) against the Sharks to open the month, his only multi-point game this season.  His 23.5 percent shooting (four goals on 17 shots) was best on the club.  He had 25 penalty minutes (second on the team to Tom Wilson’s 34) and 32 hits, he and Wilson the only players to post the double of at least 30 hits while logging at least 25 penalty minutes.  And Hathaway did all this while averaging just 10:33 in ice time per game (only Brendan Leipsic averaged less among Caps with at least five games: 9:20).

It would be a plus if Hathaway could bring his home production up to what he has accomplished on the road, although he is hardly alone among Capitals in that regard.  On the road, he is 4-4-8 (including his game-winning goal), plus-7, in 22 games, but on home ice so far he is 2-2-4, minus-1, in 17 games.  He has only one point in his last 12 games at Capital One Arena.  That was a game in which he displayed his feisty side as well.  He has an assist and 15 penalty minutes in a 5-2 win over Anaheim on November 18^th.  You might also remember that this was the game in which he squared off with the Ducks’ Erik Gudbranson, his actions leading to a game misconduct penalty and a three-game suspension for “intent to injure/spitting.”  Not that Hathaway has been a shrinking violet against the Sharks.  In 11 career games against San Jose, he is 3-3-6, plus-1, with 24 penalty minutes.

In the end…

The Sharks are a mess.  They fired head coach Peter DeBoer after starting the season 15-16-2, but they have not done any better under Bob Boughner (3-5-1).  They are a poor road team (7-10-2/25^th in points percentage), their 3-2 overtime win in Pittsburgh on Thursday notwithstanding.  They will play in Columbus on Saturday afternoon before arriving in Washington for the fourth game of a five-game road trip, playing their third game in four days.

The Caps have been teetering on shaky skates themselves over the past couple of weeks, a victim of a pace that would be hard to sustain over a long season and a bug that seemed to be working its way through the team.  But given the choice between where these teams are, the condition in which they find themselves, and what direction they are headed, the Caps are the better bet.

Capitals 5 – Sharks 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 42: Capitals at Hurricanes, January 3rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The suddenly lackluster Washington Capitals take to the road on Friday, returning to Raleigh, NC, to face the Carolina Hurricanes as they kick off the second half of their regular season schedule.  The Caps will be looking to end their longest streak of losses in regulation this season – two – and stop a slide in which they have lost three of their last four games and just 5-5-0 in their last ten games.  Carolina comes into this game in the midst of an odd series of streaks – odd numbers, that is.  A three-game winning streak followed by a three-game losing streak, and now trying to extend their current winning streak, which began with their 6-4 win over the Caps last weekend, to three games.

Then and Now…

The Caps and ‘Canes will meet for the 177th time on Friday night, including games the Caps played against the Hartford Whalers before they moved to North Carolina.  Washington is 98-55-9 (14 ties) against Carolina overall, 45-29-4 (ten ties) on the road.  Since 2005-2006, Washington is 45-27-8 against the Hurricanes, 21-15-3 on the road.

Active Leaders vs. Opponent…

Noteworthy Opponents…

In 2010-2011, it was Eric Staal and Jeff Skinner who were the go-to scorers, the former with 33 goals and 76 points, the latter with 31 goals and 63 points that season.  They are gone, Staal with the Minnesota Wild and Skinner with the Buffalo Sabres.  The go-to guys now are Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov, the former with 23 goals (team leader) and 36 points, the latter with 17 goals and 38 points.  They are also two of the youngest skaters on the team, Svechnikov being the youngest to dress this season (he will turn 20 in March) and Aho the fifth youngest skater to dress this season (he turned 22 last July).

With 38 points, Svechnikov has already passed his rookie total in points (37), set in less than half the games (40) he played last season (82), and he has trampled his power play numbers from last season, improving from no goals to five power play goals this season and from five power play points last season to 14 so far this season.  His shooting efficiency has improved from 10.6 to 15.6 percent, and his ice time is up almost two minutes a game, from 14:39 last year to 16:38 so far this year.  He has taken a place as a primary scorer on whom the team depends for success.  In 15 games in which Svechnikov has a goal this season, the club is 13-2-0, and they have yet to lose at home when he posts a goal, including last week’s win over the Caps, even if it happened to be an empty-netter in the 6-4 Hurricanes win.  With Svechnikov, ice time is worth watching, even if it is to get him on ice for more shifts late if Carolina is behind.  The Hurricanes are 14-12-1 when he skated more than 15:50, 10-2-1 when he skated less than 15:50.  He is 1-3-4, plus-2, in six career games against the Caps.

Aho has become the cornerstone player for the Hurricanes, a gifted offensive player that has been uncommon, even for a franchise with its share of skilled offensive players over the years.  Among players 22 years old or younger in franchise history, Aho ranks fifth in goals (106) and could catch Jeff Skinner (115) and Geoff Sanderson (119) by year’s end to take over third place behind Ron Francis (127) and Sylvain Turgeon (139).  He ranks second in that group in career assists (127) to Francis (272), and he is third in points (233) behind Turgeon (249) and Francis (399).  He has the best plus-minus rating of any 22-or-younger player in team history (plus-38), ranks seventh in power play goals (22), and leads the group in shorthanded goals (eight) and game-winning goals (19). 

Odd Aho fact… Sebastian Aho is not the only “Sebastian Aho” to play in the NHL.  The Sebastian Aho drafted in the fifth round of the 2017 Entry Draft by the New York Islanders played in 22 games for the Isles in 2017-2018.  Carolina’s version, taken in the second round of the 2015 Entry Draft, started a bit slowly this season, going 2-1-3 in his first nine games, but he has 21 goals and 33 points in his last 31 games, the 21 goals being more than any player in the league over that span, and ten goals in his last 11 games.  His performance on home ice has been a recent wonder.  He had a nine-game points streak on home ice (6-3-9) that was stopped on November 29^th against Nashville.  Starting with that game, he has six points in six home games, but five of them came in a 6-2- win over Minnesota on December 7^th.  Aho is 8-9-17, even, in 14 career games against the Caps.

If Petr Mrazek gets the call in goal against the Caps, it will be his 12^th career appearance against Washington, tying the number of appearances he has against Montreal and a number exceeded only by the 13 he has against Florida, and the 15 he has against both Tampa Bay and the New York Islanders.  To the extent he has familiarity with any opponent, he has it against the Caps.  His record as a Hurricane against the Caps is an odd, if thin one.  Leave aside last spring’s postseason when he was the goaltender of record in all seven games of a Hurricanes’ series win, despite a save percentage under .900 (.899) and allowing three or more goals four times.  His lone regular season win against the Caps came at home last week, but it came in the game (of three appearances against the Caps with Carolina) in which he allowed the most goals (four).

Overall this season, Mrazek has not wowed anyone.  Only three goalies in the league have more games with a save percentage under .900 than he does (13) – Sergei Bobrovsky (15), MacKenzie Blackwood (15), and Martin Jones (18).  And, those 13 games represent half of his total appearances this season (26).  It matters.  Carolina has not lost a game in regulation in which Mrazek’s save percentage was over .900 (12-0-1), while they are 4-8-1 in the 13 games he was below that threshold.  He does seem to perform better with more work, too.  In 14 games in which he faced 29 or more shots, he is 12-1-1, while in the 12 games he faced 28 or fewer shots, he is 4-7-1.  Mrazek is 4-5-2, 2.65, .912, with one shutout in 11 career appearances against the Caps. 

1.  No team allows fewer shots on goal per game on home ice than Carolina this season (26.6).

2.  The Hurricanes have the second-best winning percentage in the league when trailing after two periods on home ice (3-4-0/.429).  Only Boston is better (4-1-3/.500).

3.  Carolina’s winning percentage when trailing after two periods on home ice is actually better than their winning percentage when trailing after one period (2-3-0/.400).

4.  Only two teams have allowed more first period goals on home ice than Carolina (20) – Edmonton (21) and Vegas (22).

5.  Three teams have yet to allow an overtime goal on home ice this season -- Philadelphia, Arizona, and Carolina.

1.  The Caps are tied with Toronto for most goals scored on the road this season (79), and they have been balanced about it, scoring 19 in the first period (tied for fifth most), 26^th in the second period (fourth), 31 in the third period (first), and three in overtime (tied for second).  They are the only team in the league to rank in the top-five in all periods in goals scored on the road.

2.  Washington leads the league in goals scored at 5-on-6 on the road (seven).

3.  The Caps lead from ahead on the road.  They are tied for the league lead in road wins when leading after one period (eight, with Toronto), and they are second in road wins when leading after two periods (ten).

4.  The Caps have taken more penalties on the road (96) than any other team in the league except the New York Ranger (103).

5.  The Caps have dressed 25 skaters this season so far.  Of that group, 19 have hit at least one post or crossbar on a shot attempt.  The only one of the six who has not who appeared in at least 20 games: Radko Gudas (no iron in 41 games).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Teuvo Teravainen

Seventeen teams passed on Teuvo Teravainen at the top of the 2012 Entry Draft.  The Caps passed on him twice, taking Filip Forsberg with the 11^th overall pick and then Tom Wilson with the 16^th overall pick before Chicago took Teravainen with the 18^th overall pick.  And then, Chicago did not think so much of him that they wouldn’t trade him after three years with the Blackhawks in a trade Blackhawk fans might rather forget, sending Teravainen and Bryan Bickell to Carolina for a 2016 second round draft pick and a 2017 third round pick.  Chicago took Artur Kayumov with the former and the latter was traded to the Detroit Red Wings for Tomas Jurco.  Teravainen might have been moved for salary cap management reasons, but the hockey side of the deal did not and has not favored Chicago.

In his fourth season with the Hurricanes, Teravainen has reached the status of a point-per-game player (40 points in 40 games) that, if extended to the end of the season, would continue an uninterrupted string of improvements in points as a Hurricane, from 42 in 2016-2017 to 64 two seasons ago, to 76 last season.  The odd part of his scoring this season is the lack of his own goal scoring.  He has only seven goals on 114 shots.  The shots pace is the highest of his career (2.85 per game, far above the 2.26 per game he had in 2017-2018), but his 6.1 shooting percentage is his lowest since he finished at 6.1 percent in 34 games with the Blackhawks in 2014-2015.  He has been hot of late, but in a cold way.  While he does not have a goal in his last 16 games, going 0-for-45 shooting, he has 14 points in his last 11 games, all of them assists.  Teravainen is 4-9-13, plus-2, in 16 career games against the Capitals.

Washington: Michal Kempny

If Capitals fans are disappointed that defenseman Nick Jensen has not been “Michal Kempny, 2.0,” both defensemen and both trade deadline acquisitions a year apart in joining the Caps, they might be bewildered at what is going on with “Michal Kempny, 1.0.”  Kempny, who was injured late last season in a game against Tampa Bay, underwent surgery, and delayed his return to the ice this season with rehab, rejoined the Caps in Game 9 against the New York Rangers and promptly posted 11 points in his first 11 games (3-8-11).  Since then, however, Kempny has only a pair of assists on his scoring record over his last 20 games and has a minus-2 rating over that span.  He has picked up his shot frequency over that dry spell, starting it with only 10 shots in 13 games before posting 14 in his last seven games.  One constant, though, has been his weak possession numbers.  His on-ice shot attempts-for at 5-on-5 was 46.3 percent in those first nine games when he scored a point a game, and in his last 20 games it is 48.5 percent.  In both blocks it was the worst number among Capital defensemen appearing in more than one game; in the more recent block it was the only number under 50 percent among the seven defensemen appearing in more than one game.  It would be nice if Kempny could shake loose on the road in Carolina.  Since posting a pair of goals in Vancouver against the Canucks on October 25^th, his only two goals on the road so far this season, he is 0-3-3 in 13 road games.  Kempny is 2-1-3, plus-1, in five career games against the Hurricanes.

In the end…

The Caps are just 3-3-0 against Metropolitan Division teams on the road so far and have lost three of their last four road games against division opponents.  In those last four division games on the road the Caps allowed a total of 16 goals while scoring only 11, six of them in their only win, a 6-3 victory over New Jersey on December 20^th.  This game will kick off a stretch of six division games in the next eight contests for the Caps.  If they want to avoid slipping back to the pack in the standings, they need to start taking better care of divisional business.

Capitals 5 – Hurricanes 3