Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 22

Week 22 was an odd week for the Washington Capitals.  They lost ugly to a division rival, lost in overtime to another division rival while allowing a player to score five goals against them for only the second time in team history, but bookending the week were a pair of wins, including one over their arch rival, to give the Caps a second-straight winning week that felt like anything but.

Record: 2-1-1

A second straight two-win week, while hardly the stuff to inspire handsprings, is encouraging after three straight losing weeks.  The problem, though, is that the Caps went 1-1-1 against Metropolitan Division opponents.  The Caps might be bending that curve a bit, though.  Their overall record against the Metro at the end of Week 22 stands at 11-12-2 with three games remaining (at Columbus, at Pittsburgh, and hosting the New York Rangers).  The Caps’ three games in Week 22 against Metro teams went loss/overtime loss/win.  When added to a win over the Pittsburgh Penguins on February 23^rd, the Caps are 2-1-1 against Metro teams after losing four in a row against division rivals.  On the other hand, and in a strange twist of fate, the Penguins are the only Metro team that the Caps have beaten since January 18^th, having done so twice.

What should not get lost in the divisional noise in Week 22 is that the Caps beat the Minnesota Wild on the road to open the week.  That win broke a four-game road losing streak for the Caps that had been their longest of the season.

Offense: 4.00/game (season: 3.44/2nd)

It is hard to find fault in a week in which the Caps scored four or more goals three times in four games.  Ten different Capitals shared in the 16 goals scored.  Alex Ovechkin led the club with four goals, posted in two-goal games against Minnesota and the New York Rangers.  His second goal against the Rangers forced overtime in that game and gained the Caps a standings point; it also lifted into a tie with Boston’s David Pastrnak for the league lead in goals (47), although Pastrnak reclaimed the lead with a goal against Tampa Bay on Saturday night.  The two multi-goal games gave Ovechkin a league-leading 13 multi-goal games this season and 145 for his career, fourth all-time.

Three other Caps had multi-goal weeks.  Richard Panik, Nic Dowd, and Garnet Hathaway had a pair apiece.  Dowd had the first multi-goal game of his career when he posted a pair in the Caps’ 5-2 win over the Penguins to end the week.  Hathaway’s two goals gave him goals in three of his last six games at week’s end after suffering through a 24-game streak without a goal.  Panik’s two goals, one to start the week against Minnesota and the other to end it against Pittsburgh, ended a slump in which he went without a goal for 13 straight games.

The Caps had 15 skaters record points for the week, Richard Panik leading the way with six (2-4-6).  The six points over four games gave him his longest points streak as a Capital (four games) and matched his point total over his previous 14 games.  The balance was evident with Ovechkin registering five points (4-1-5), and four different Caps posting four points: Carl Hagelin (1-3-4), Nic Dowd (2-2-4), Nicklas Backstrom (1-3-4), and Ilya Kovalchuk (1-3-4).

In an odd result, Hagelin matched Ovechkin’s shot total for the week (11), aided by Ovechkin not recording a shot on goal in the 5-2 win over the Penguins to close out the week.  John Carlson added ten shots on goal of his own.  He also had three assists to hit the 60 assist mark for the season, a career-high and making him only the second defenseman in Caps history to hit the 60-assist mark.  Scott Stevens did it twice (60 assists in 1987-1988 and 61 assists in 1988-1989).  Carlson became just the fourth defensemen since 2005-2006 to post at least 15 goals and at least 60 assists in a season (15-60-75), joining Nicklas Lidstrom (16-64-80 in 2005-2006), Erik Karlsson (16-66-82 in 2015-2016), and Brent Burns (16-67-83 in 2018-2019).

Defense: 4.00/game (season: 3.09/T-18th)

The Caps have had their problems on the defensive side of the puck.  It went from bad to worse when the Caps started the week allowing three goals to the Minnesota Wild, then five goals to the Philadelphia Flyers, and finally six goals to the New York Rangers, five of those goals scored by Mika Zibanejad, including the overtime game-winner in the Rangers’ 6-5 win.  It was only the second time in Capitals history that the club allowed a player to score five goals in a single game.  Sergei Fedorov scored all five goals, including the overtime game-winner, on December 26, 1996 when the Detroit Red Wings beat the Caps, 5-4 in Detroit.

The 6-5 overtime loss to the Rangers made it ten consecutive games that the Caps allowed an opponent three or more goals and the sixth consecutive game of three or more goals allowed on the road.

The week had an odd twist to it in that the Caps were either stingy, twice holding the Flyers and Penguins under 30 shots (29 and 28, respectively), or generous, allowing Minnesota 40 shots and the Rangers 39 shots on goal.  The Caps have been a bit leaky in this regard lately, allowing opponents more than 30 shots in six of nine games through Week 22.  The Caps did limit the Flyers and Penguins to fewer than 40 shot attempts at 5-on-5 (34 and 39, respectively), ending a six-game streak in which they allowed 40 or more shot attempts at fives.

Goaltending: 4.02 / .882 (season: 2.93 / .902 / 1 shutout)

When the defense struggles, the goalies’ numbers take the hit, and both goalies did just that in Week 22.  Braden Holtby got the call three times for the week, and what distinguished his performance, not in a good way, was how his save percentages deteriorated from period to period -- .929 in first period (26 saves on 28 shots), .909 I second periods (30 saves on 33 shots), and .861 in third periods (31 saves on 36 shots).  The detail was a bit different, though.  Holtby faced fewer than ten shots in five of nine regulation periods he played this week and was perfect in four of them (he allowed two goals on four third period shots against the Flyers).  In the four regulation period in which he faced more than ten shots, he stopped 57 of 65 shots (.877 save percentage).

Ilya Samsonov was in goal for one game this week and allowed six goals on 39 shots in a 6-5 overtime loss to the Rangers.  It was his fifth straight loss over six appearances (0-4-1) in which he stopped 133 of 153 shots (.869 save percentage).  It is quite a reversal from his 11-win streak from November 20^th through January 31^st over which he stopped 278 of 297 shots (.936).

Power Play: 1-for-10/10.0 percent (season: 19.5 percent/17th)

The Caps are in a serious slump on their power play.  Week 22 was the fifth time in the last eight weeks that they finished under 15 percent for the week.  Over those eight weeks they are 13-for-83 (15.5 percent), 24^th in the league over that span.  Only once in that span did they score two power play goals in a game (February 13^th at Colorado).

The Caps did not apply a lot of power play pressure in Week 22, at least in terms of shot volumes.  They had 15 shots on goal in 18:15 of power play ice time.  Alex Ovechkin and Tom Wilson had four shots on goal apiece, although they got to them in different ways.  Ovechkin got his over the first three games of the week, while Wilson recorded all of his in the game against the Rangers.

Ovechkin scored the Caps’ lone power play goal of the week on the Caps’ first power play of the week, that on a 5-on-3 advantage against Minnesota.  They then went 0-f0r-9 over the remainder of the week.

Penalty Killing: 14-for-20/70.0 percent (season: 82.8 percent/5th)

Twenty shorthanded situations faced is quite a volume for a week’s work.  The Caps have not faced that many shorthanded situations in a single week since Week 18 of the 2015-2016 season when they went 17-for-20 on the penalty kill.  The impressive, for lack of a better word, part of the penalty kill in Week 22 was that the Caps spent more than half a game – 34:31 in ice time – killing penalties.  The heavy penalty killing workload pushed the Caps over 400 minutes in shorthanded ice time, the only team in the league to top that mark through Week 22 (409:02).

The Caps went shorthanded five or more times three times this week, bringing their total of such games to 17 for the season.  They are 10-5-2 in those games, but it is a dangerous way to play.

Faceoffs: 104-for-232 / 44.8 percent (season: 48.4 percent/28th)

Another week, another under-50 percent effort in the circle, but Week 22 comes with a twist.  The Caps finished the week over 50 percent in the offensive zone (32-for-61/52.5 percent), but they took 36 fewer draws in the offensive end of the ice than they did in the defensive end, where they were just 38-for-97 (39.2 percent).

On an individual level, there was the good and the bad, and there was a pattern to it.  Nicklas Backstrom, Lars Eller, and Evgeny Kuznetsov all finished over 50 percent in the offensive zone, but in the other end, they all finished under 50 percent.  On the other hand, Nic Dowd struggled in both ends, finishing under 50 percent in both, but did top 50 percent in neutral zone draws.

Goals by Period:

The Caps did well in first periods, even if they were a bit misleading.  Of eight first period goals scored for the week, the Caps had three of them in the 4-3 win over Minnesota to open the week, and they had three more in the 5-2 win over Pittsburgh to wrap up the week. 

The progress by period of goals against was another matter and not as pleasant to contemplate.  The Caps were leakier as games went on, allowing seven goals in four third periods for the week, almost half of the week’s total goals allowed.  Those seven goals allowed in the third period brought the Caps’ total for the season to 74, placing them in the top-ten in third period goals allowed (tied with Florida, Ottawa, and Los Angeles, ot a neighborhood in which they might want to find themselves).

The saving part of the week is that the Caps did get out of it with 93 third period goals scored for the season.  That is tops in the league, five more than the Rangers.

Year-over-Year:

The recent struggles of the Capitals have brought this year’s team into an almost identical record as last year’s club through an equivalent number of games.  Unsurprisingly, the similarities between last year and this extend to the scoring for and against, this year’s club scoring only four more goals than last year’s club and the scoring defense now being identical for the two years.  The Caps are continuing to limit 5-on-5 shot attempts this year compared to last, and the possession effects appear in the lower blocked shot and takeaway numbers.  Credited hits run counter to that trend, with this year’s club running almost ten percent ahead of last year’s club, an unexpected result if a team is better at dominating possession.

In the end…

Week 22 had a glass-half-full/glass-half-empty quality to it.  The Caps went 2-1-1, which continues the improvement from their three-week streak of losing weeks, but losing twice to division rivals, including the one now in a flatfooted tie with them in record (the Flyers) hurts, and is part of a year-long struggle against Metropolitan Division teams.  But any week that includes a win over the Penguins is not all bad, especially when it is the win that closes a week and leaves fans happy.  But with only 14 games left in the season, the Caps are going to have to show more, especially in the defensive end of the ice, to suggest they have a deep playoff run in the cards.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Richard Panik (2-4-6, plus-5, one game-winning goal, five hits, three blocked shots, plus-5 on-ice even strength goal differential)
• Second Star: Nic Dowd (2-2-4, plus-4, first career multi-goal game, nine hits)
• Third Star: Ilya Kovalchuk (1-3-4, plus-4, eight hits, plus-4 on-ice even strength goal differential)

Captain rates the week…

Two puppers

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 68: Capitals at Penguins, March 7th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

And, it is gone.  On December 27^th, the Washington Capitals had a ten-point lead on the Metropolitan Division field.  When they lost in overtime to the New York Rangers, 6-5, on Thursday night, and the Philadelphia Flyers beat the Carolina Hurricanes, 4-1, that lead was gone, the teams in a flatfooted tie in record (both 40-20-7) and the Caps holding the edge by virtue of the third tie-breaker criterion -- the greater number of games won, excluding games won by the Gimmick—and that by the slimmest of margins, 36 to 35.

The Caps will try to at least hold on to that thin reed of a lead when they visit the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena on Saturday afternoon.  The Caps will be trying to avoid a third consecutive loss, while the Penguins will be seeking their third consecutive win.

Then and Now…

This will be the 228^th meeting of the clubs in the regular season.  Washington is 99-102-10 (16 ties) in the series overall and 41-58-5 (seven ties) in Pittsburgh.  Since 2005-2006, the Caps are 25-24-9 against the Pens overall and 12-11-5 on the road.  The teams split their first two meetings this season, both of them in Washington.  The Penguins took the first meeting, 4-3, on February 2^nd, while the Caps came out on top, 5-3, on February 23^rd.

Active Leaders vs. Opponent…

Noteworthy Opponents…

So there he was, settling in after three full seasons with the Penguins as a reliable 15-goal, 35-point player (46 goals and 101 points over those three seasons).  It was entirely consistent with his output in his brief stint in the AHL, where he was 16-17-33 in 61 games with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins over the 2014-2016 and 2015-2016 seasons.  But then something happened to Bryan Rust, and one wonders if it is a late bloomer blooming or a one-off.  Rust leads the team in goals this season with 27, far exceeding the career 18 he had last season.  But here is the thing.  Yes, he is getting more ice time (19:51 per game this season compared to the 15:18 he averaged over his first three full seasons).  Yes, he is shooting more often (2.83 shots on goal per game versus the 1.89 shots per game he averaged over his first three seasons).  But on the other hand, he is shooting 18.4 percent this season, compared to 12.3 percent over the last three seasons.

The Pens certainly hope Rust continues his efficiency and his effectiveness.  They are 18-2-2 in the 22 games in which he had a goal, 25-4-4 in the 33 games in which he had a point.  Rust has been a terror on home ice, too.  In 25 games on home ice so far, he has points in 18 of them (16-19-35) and has nine-multi-point games.  Rust is 4-5-9, plus-1, in 15 career games against the Caps.

Dan Marino is a Marino that Pittsburghers knows and remember from his football days and second career making commercials.  John Marino, a native of North Easton, Massachusetts, is one that fewer folks might recognize in Pittsburgh.  However, John Marino is second among Penguin defensemen in goals and points this season, his six goals and 26 points trailing only Kris Letang (14 and 42).  Marino was a sixth-round pick of the Edmonton Oilers in the 2015 Entry Draft who made his way to Pittsburgh in a July 2019 trade for a sixth-round pick in the 2021 Entry Draft.  The former Harvard University blueliner seems to be a steal so far in his rookie season in the NHL, ranked fifth in goals scored among rookie defensemen, fourth in points, tied for third in plus-minus (plus-16, with Minnesota’s Carson Soucy), and he is one of only four rookie defensemen to average more than 20 minutes per game (20:19).

Marino has been a consistent performer regardless of venue, posting a 2-10-12, plus-9 scoring line on home ice and a 4-10-14, plus-7 scoring line on the road this season.  And, he shook off a slow start to post those solid numbers, going without a point in his first nine games, but averaging 0.59 points per game since then.  As is often the case with second or third level scorers, his contributions might not be as frequent as a Sidney Crosby or a Kris Letang, but they have been meaningful.  Pittsburgh is 17-3-2 in the 22 games in which Marino has a point this season. He goes into this game with points in five of his last eight home games (1-4-5).  Marino had an assist in his only appearance against the Caps in his career to date and was a plus-1.

Matt Murray has the Stanley Cups, and he has 19 wins this season.  Tristan Jarry was named to this year’s All-Star Game and has 20 wins this season.  Jarry also has the 2.31 goals against average (Murray’s is 2.83), the .924 save percentage (.900 for Murray), and has three shutouts (one for Murray).  The differences are just as stark on home ice, where Jarry is 13-4-1, 2.05, .932, with three shutouts, while Murray is 10-2-3, 2.58, .918.  What has changed, though, is the calendar.  Since the calendar flipped over to the new year, their respective numbers are much closer, with a slight edge to Murray (8-4-1, 2.60, .911) over Jarry (7-6-1, 2.84, .907).

The odd part of their respective records is Murray’s record on home ice.  He has not lost a game in regulation at PPG Paints Arena since October 8^th, going 9-0-3 (one no-decision), 2.48, .921.  Nine times in those 13 appearances he allowed two or fewer goals.  On the other hand, Jarry’s numbers are better over that same span (2.05 GAA and .932 save percentage on home ice).  Murray is 8-5-0, 3.56, .887 in 13 career appearances against the Caps, while Jarry has never faced the Caps in his career to date.

1.  Only Philadelphia has more wins on home ice (24) than the Penguins this season (23, tied with St. Louis), and the Pens’ .758 points percentage on home ice ranks third, trailing only the Flyers (.788) and Boston (.779).

2.  The Pens have built a fine home record on solid play at both ends of the ice.  They are top-ten in scoring offense (3.55 goals per game/fifth), scoring defense (2.45/sixth), power play (24.0 percent/eighth), net power play (23.1 percent/seventh), net penalty kill (88.8 percent/sixth), and shots on goal per game (33.3/tied for tenth).

3.  Pittsburgh has a knack for erasing leads on home ice.  Their 8-4-2 record (.571 winning percentage) when surrendering the game’s first goal is second-best in the league on home ice.

4. The Penguins have not lost a game in regulation on home ice when leading after two periods (14-0-1).

5.  Teams struggle to start fast at PPG Paints Arena.  The 21 first period goals allowed by the Pens are tied for fifth fewest in the league (with Vancouver), and finishing strong is a problem for visiting teams as well, the 23 third period goals allowed by the Pens being fourth-fewest in the league.

1.  The entire four game series against the Penguins this season is being played in early afternoon.  The Caps play nine games at 1:00pm or earlier this season, four of them against the Penguins.

2.  Since starting the season 16-3-1 on the road, the Caps are 6-7-1 in their last 14 games away from Capital One Arena.

3.  Caps’ road problems, Part One… their ten first period goals scored over their last 14 road games is tied for 24^th in the league (with Minnesota), while the 19 goals allowed in the first period are tied for third most (with Vancouver).

4.  Caps’ road problems, Part Two… the Caps are 3-0-1 when scoring first in their last 14 road games, but the key point there is scoring first only four times in 14 games.  They find themselves in an early hole too often.

5.  Caps’ road problems, Part Three… In their last 14 games on the road, the Caps have had few chances to hold a third period lead.  Only twice have they taken a lead into the third period, winning on both occasions.  They are 2-5-0 when trailing after two periods over that span on the road.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Pittsburgh: Sidney Crosby

Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin came into the league together, and here we are 15 seasons later and both are chasing down records.  Crosby hit a milestone in the Penguins’ most recent home game, posting his 800^th career assist in a 7-3 win over Ottawa last Tuesday.  He became the 32^nd player in league history to hit that mark and the sixth-fastest in league history to do it, posting that 800^th assist in his 980^th career game (for the record, the faster to 800 are: Bryan Trottier (969 games), Adam Oates (919), Paul Coffey (880), Mario Lemieux (661), and Wayne Gretzky (527)).  Crosby is already the franchise’s all-time leader in games played (981), second in goals (461, to Lemieux’ 690), second in assists (800, to Lemieux’ 1,033), points (1,261, to Lemieux’ 1,723), second in plus-minus (plus-177, to Jaromir Jagr’s plus-207), third in power play goals (140), fourth in game-winning goals (64), and fourth in points per game (1.29).

This has been a difficult season for Crosby, who has been limited to 38 of the Penguins’ 66 games due to core muscle surgery.  But since his return on January 14^th, he is 10-18-28, fifth in the league in points over that span, and his 13 power play points are ranked third over the period.  He has been especially productive on home ice since his return.  In nine games at PPG Paints Arena since coming back, he is 5-17-22, and he has five games with three or more points.  He has multi-point games in 11 of the 19 games he has played on home ice this season.  If Crosby goes multi-point, book it in the win column.  Pittsburgh is 13-0-0 in games in which Crosby recorded two or more points overall this season.  With two points in this game, he would tie Eric Staal as the active leader in career points against the Caps (74).  In 51 career games against the Caps, Crosby is 25-47-72, minus-3.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

On the other side of the Great Rivalry of the 21^st Century, Alex Ovechkin is now just a hat trick away from tying Mike Gartner for seventh place on the all-time NHL goal scoring list (708).  There is an odd part about his goal scoring this season that might say more about his teammates than it does about him.  In 13 multi-goal games this season (tops in the league), the Caps are 10-1-2.  That is not especially surprising.  However, in 17 games in which he scored a single goal, the Caps have just a 9-7-1 record.  Not a lot of goal support from teammates in those instances.  And in the 36 games in which he was held without a goal entirely, the Caps are 20-12-4.  Guess the moral here is “score a lot or not at all.”

But there is a darker side to those games in which he did not score a goal.  Since January 8^th, the Caps are just 2-9-0 in those games in which he did not score one. This after going 18-3-4 in games Ovechkin did not score a goal to that point.  In that respect, the team seems to have disintegrated around him.

Ovechkin goes into this game with two-goal performances in each of his last two road games (at Minnesota and at the New York Rangers) and four multi-goal performances over his last nine road contests, including a hat trick against the New York Islanders to start the run in a 6-4 win on January 18^th.  Here is why that matters.  If Ovechkin records a multi-goal game on Saturday, he will tie Wayne Gretzky for the most multi-goal games on the road in NHL history (83).  In 58 career games against Pittsburgh, Ovechkin is 35-24-59, plus-13.

In the end…

The Capitals find themselves in a place they have not occupied in quite some time – a horse race.  Tied with the Flyers in record, three points ahead of the Penguins, the Caps are not just in danger of losing their grip on the Metropolitan Division lead, they are in jeopardy of losing a first round home-advantage playoff matchup, a spot they in which have not found themselves since opening the 2012 playoffs in Boston against the Bruins.

The Caps have 15 games to get themselves right again, but they are running out of chances to do so at the expense of Metropolitan Division teams directly.  Saturday’s game against Pittsburgh will be one of only four that the Caps have against division opponents over that last 15-game stretch.  Two of those four games will be against the Penguins (the teams meet in Pittsburgh on March 22^nd), but for the Caps the chore is to win, win again, and win some more to put pressure on the Flyers and Penguins to match them from a distance.  If they do not, starting with Saturday’s game, one would like their chances a lot less to find their game once the postseason begins.  As if this rivalry needs yet another layer of flavor to it. 

Capitals 4 – Penguins 3

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 67: Capitals at Rangers, March 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It is back-to-back Thursday for the Washington Capitals as they head to New York to face the Rangers after hosting the Philadelphia Flyers on Wednesday.  The Caps, who broke a four-game losing streak on the road against the Minnesota Wild in their last road contest, will be looking to make it two in a row against the Blueshirts.  The Rangers, who reached a season-high 11 games over .500 (35-24-4) with a fifth straight win on February 27^th against the Montreal Canadiens, come into this game having dropped three in a row and find themselves four points out of the second wild-card spot for a berth in the playoffs.

Then and Now…

This will be the 225^th regular season meeting between the Capitals and the Rangers.  Washington is 108-91-7 (18 ties) in the all-time series, 49-51-3 (nine ties) on the road.  Since 2005-2006, the Caps are 31-23-4 against the Rangers overall and 14-13-3 on the road.  This will be the third of four meetings of the clubs in the regular season.  The teams split the first two games, each team winning on home ice, the Caps by a 5-2 margin on October 18^th and the Rangers in a 4-1 decision on November 20^th.

Active Leaders vs. Opponent…

Noteworthy Opponents…

A team rebuilding is a team trying to go younger, and the Rangers are no exception.  Of the 27 skaters to dress for the club this season, 13 are 25 years old or younger, including Brady Skjei, who was traded to Carolina at the trading deadline.  None is younger than Kappo Kakko, the second overall pick in last summer’s entry draft.  It has been an up and down rookie season for the youngster.  He started the season a relatively quiet 1-1-2, minus-12, in his first nine games before breaking out with five goals over his next seven games.  However, his two-goal game against Pittsburgh on November 12^th, his first multi-goal game in the NHL, to end that five goals in seven games run, was the high water mark of his season.  Since then, Kakko has two goals in his last 46 games, ten assists, and carries a minus-13 rating. 

The odd part about his goal scoring is how it bears little relationship to win-loss outcomes.  The Rangers are just 3-3-1 in the seven games in which he has a goal so far.  It isn’t really any better when he records points, the Rangers going 8-6-2 in the 16 games in which he has points.  In fact, even his disengagement from the offense, as far as it is reflected in shots on goal, looks out of place.  The Rangers are 8-5-2 in the 15 games in which Kakko did not record a shot on goal.  Time on ice?  Getting it has been a problem for the club.  New York is 2-9-1 in the 12 games in which he skated 16:49 or more, 8-3-1 when he skated under 12 minutes.  Consider them growing pains.  He is 0-2-2, minus-2, in his two career games against the Caps so far.

On defense, Adam Fox is the youngest of eight defensemen to dress for the Rangers this season and one of only two to dress for all 66 games to date (Jacob Trouba is the other).  Fox was a third-round pick of the Calgary Flames in the 2016 Entry Draft (66^th overall), upon which he was traded twice before ever appearing in an NHL game, first from Calgary to Carolina with Dougie Hamilton and Miceal Ferland for Noah Hanafin and Elias Lindholm in June 2018, and again last April by Carolina to the Rangers for a second round pick in the 2019 Entry Draft and a third round pick in the 2020 Entry Draft. 

Fox has broken through in a big way as a rookie this season.  He is tied for third among rookie defensemen in goals (seven, with Minnesota’s Carson Soucy), third in assists (28), third in points (35), first in plus-minus (plus-19), tied for seventh in penalty minutes (28, with Philadelphia’s Philippe Myers), third in power play points (13), and tied for first in game-winning goals (four, with Colorado’s Cale makar).  He is also tied for third in that group in blocked shots (87, with Columbus’ Vladimir Gavrikov) and first in takeaways (56). What he has not done much lately, though, is hit the back of the net.  Fox has one goal in his last 21 games, but he does have ten assists, and he comes into this game 1-3-4, plus-3, over his last five games. 

The future of Ranger netminding would appear to be the property of Igor Shesterkin, who has been impressive in his NHL debut season, going 9-1-0, 2.23, .940 in ten appearances to date.  However, he has not made an appearance since stopping 44 of 46 shots against San Jose in a 3-2 win at Madison Square Garden on February 22^nd.  He and teammate Pavel Buchnevich were involved in a car accident in Brooklyn on February 23^rd, Shesterkin suffering a non-displace rib fracture. 

Shesterkin’s timetable for returning to the ice has been moved forward, but for now, the bulk of the netminding duty would seem to fall to Alexandar Georgiev, himself having just turned 24 and in only his third NHL season.  The undrafted Georgiev signed a three-year contract as a free agent with the Rangers in July 2017 on the basis of an impressive developmental camp performance.  If he gets the call in this contest, it will be Georgiev’s 33^rd appearance of the season, matching his career high set last season.  He already has a career-high 16 wins , although his goals against average (2.98) is little changed from last season (2.91), as is his save percentage (.912 versus .914 last year).

The odd part about Georgiev’s record this year is how weak his record is on home ice.  While he sports a 13-5-0, 2.88, .922 record on the road with two shutouts, he is just 3-9-1, 3.13, .895 in 14 appearances at Madison Square Garden this season.  It is a reversal of his record last season, when he was 7-3-3, 2.23, .931, with one shutout at home and 7-10-1, 3.44, .902, with one shutout on the road.  He is just 1-7-0, 3.09, .894 (one no-decision) in his last nine appearances on home ice.  Georgiev is 0-2-1, 4.06, .875 in three career appearances against the Caps.

1.  If the Rangers are going to make a final push for a playoff spot, they need to step up their performances on home ice over their last seven home games.  Their .529 points percentage at MSG (17-15-2) is tied for 26^th in the league.

2.  New York has the fourth-best power play on home ice in the league (27.0 percent), and they get to deploy it, their 3.38 opportunities per game ranking sixth in the league.

3.  On the other hand, the Rangers have the league’s worst penalty kill on home ice (74.7 percent) and its second-worst net penalty kill, after accounting for shorthanded goals scored (77.9 percent, only Detroit being worse at 75.7 percent).

4.  Only Arizona has lost more games in regulation this season when taking a lead into the first intermission (six) than the Rangers (four, tied with New Jersey, Detroit, and Montreal).  They are one of seven teams to have won only one game on home ice when trailing at the first intermission, fewest in the league.

5.  Shots on goal matter with the Rangers on home ice, but not in the expected way.  They have six wins in 13 games when out-shooting opponents (6-7-0), but they have ten wins in 19 games when out-shot (10-7-2).

1.  The Caps have played 33 road games to date and have 45 standings points.  With a win in this game, the Caps would tie the 2007-2008 and 2017-2018 teams for seventh-most standings points earned in a season since 2005-2006 with seven road games left to play and 14 more points available.  They can capture the top spot, it being held by the 2015-2016 club that earned 58 points on the road (27-10-4), but only if they win out on the road.

2.  This year’s Caps have the second-best scoring offense on the road (3.39 goals per game) of any club since 2005-2006.  Only the 2009-2010 team was better (3.83 goals per game).

3.  As bad as the Caps have been on faceoffs on the road this season (47.5 percent/24^th in the league), it is only the third-worst club on draws on the road since 2005-2006. The 2013-2014 team was worse (45.1 percent), and was last year’s club (43.8 percent).

4.  One area in which the Caps have made considerable improvement on the road is making teams face their power play.  Last year, the Caps averaged 2.51 power play chances per game, fewest in the post-2005-2006 era.  This year, they are averaging 3.36 chances per game, a 33.9 percent improvement.

5.  On the other hand, the Caps are going shorthanded more often this season on the road (3.58 times per game) than last season (3.20, fewest in the post-2005-2006 era).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Henrik Lundqvist. 

When Larry Brooks penned this column in the New York Post on March 1^st, it read like a eulogy for the greatest goaltender in New York Ranger history.  Few athletes get to go out entirely on their own terms, and the end can be difficult to watch.  For a class act like Henrik Lundqvist, it is more difficult, not just for Rangers fans, but for fans of the sport who have had the chance to watch one of the great careers in goal play out.  When Lundqvist took the ice for the Rangers against the Flyers last Sunday, it was his first game in almost three weeks and would be his first complete game in a full month and that, ironically, being a 33-save shutout of the Detroit Red Wings.  In three appearances since that shutout of the Red Wings, Lundqvist’s number have been ghastly.  In 103 minutes over three appearances he stopped only 33 of 42 shots (.786 save percentage) and lost both of his decisions.

Oddly enough, Lundqvist has thrived in high shot-volume situations this season, going 8-4-2 (one no decision) when facing more than 30 shots, stopping 525 of 567 shots along the way (.926 save percentage).  In the six games in which he faced more than 40 shots, he stopped 247 of the 264 shots he faced (.936).

Lundqvist has always been a consistent performer, regardless of venue, his career save percentage being .918 in both career home and road games.  This season has been a bit of a departure for the veteran, posting a home record of 8-5-1, 3.08, .910 and a road record of 2-7-2, 3.32, .897, with one shutout.  In 42 career appearances against the Caps, Lundqvist is 22-13-7, 2.76, .907, with four shutouts.

Washington: John Carlson

John Carlson’s next goal will give him a career-high 16 for the season.  His 58 assists and 73 points are already career highs, the second straight year he topped 50 assists and 70 points.  His 8.3 percent shooting is a career best.  His 37 primary assists are tied with Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl among all skaters, not only defensemen, and trail only Connor McDavid (38) and Jonathan Huberdeau (39) going into Wednesday night’s game against Philadelphia.  His 1.12 points per game are most by a defenseman appearing in at least 50 games since 1993-1994, when Ray Bourque (1.26) and Sergei Zubov (1.14) had higher points per game.  At his current points per game pace, Carlson would finish this season with 91 points.  The last defenseman to have more in a season was Phil Housley, who finished with 97 points in 1992-1993.  You would think Carlson would be clearing space on his mantel for the Norris Trophy as the league’s top defenseman, even if his candidacy is largely based on his offensive performance.

You would be, if not wrong, then premature.  Not that being the scoring leader among defenseman is a reliable predictor of Norris Trophy winners.  In 14 seasons before this one, since 2005-2006, the trophy was won by the scoring leader among defensemen six times, most recently by Brent Burns in 2016-2017.  It is interesting to note that the trophy was won by the second-leading scorer among defensemen four times in that span, most recently by Mark Giordano last season.

Josi is said by many to have the superior all-around game, defensemen expected to defend as well as score to be taken seriously as a Norris candidate.  But in goals allowed at even strength, Carlson has been on ice for 23 goals, while Josi has been on ice for 21.  Josi does get more penalty killing ice time (2:06 per game) than Carlson (1:27), which accounts for their difference in total ice time per game, and that makes a point for Josi.  The question might come down to whether Carlson’s offensive numbers are so dominant in a recent historical context, to offset the “balance” that is attributed to Josi.  Carlson is 5-21-26, minus-1, in 35 career games against the Rangers.

In the end…

A win over the New York will not drive a stake through the Rangers’ playoff chances, but it will make their climb that much steeper to navigate.  And that is the theme of the week in which the Caps play three division rivals.  Send a message, make their lives harder as the season winds down, make a point that the Caps are still the class of the Metro.  Even with this being the second half of back-to-back games, the tenth of 12 such sets the Caps will play this season (they swept three and split six in their first nine sets), they have enough to make things difficult for the Rangers.

Capitals 4 – Rangers 3

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 66: Flyers at Capitals, March 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals start one of their more important weeks of the season on Wednesday night when they face the onrushing Philadelphia Flyers in the first of three games against Metropolitan Division opponents this week.  The Caps, who have not won more than two consecutive games in more than a month, will be looking for a second consecutive win after their 4-3 win over the Minnesota Wild on Sunday night.  It would be only the second time they won consecutive games over a 16-game stretch dating back to the end of January.  The Flyers, on the other hand, are one of the hottest teams in the league, bringing a six-game winning streak into this contest, their longest of the season.

Then and Now…

The Capitals and Flyers will meet for the 223^rd time in the regular season on Wednesday night.  Washington is 87-105-11 (19 ties) in the all-time series, 49-42-4 (13 ties) at home.  Since 2005-2006, the Caps are 30-18-11 against the Flyers overall and 16-8-4 at home.  This will be the fourth and final meeting of the clubs in the regular season, the Caps looking to earn a split in the series.  Washington won the first game between the teams, 2-1 in a Gimmick, on November 13^th in Philadelphia.  The Flyers won the next two meetings, 3-2 in Philadelphia on January 8^th and 7-2 in Washington on February 8^th.

Active Leaders vs. Opponent…

Noteworthy Opponents…

Since January 8^th, when the Flyers bested the Caps, 3-2, the Orange and Black are 16-5-1, tied for the league lead in standings points earned (33, with three other teams) through Monday's games and are tied for the second-best points percentage (.750).  They have done it largely with a productive offense that leads the league in goals per game (3.73) over the period.  With 23 points apiece, both Travis Konecny and Sean Couturier have had a hand in 28 percent of the league-leading 82 goals scored by the Flyers in that span.

Konecny, who posted 24 goals in each of the previous two seasons, can match that total with a goal against the Caps in this contest.  An even strength goal would give him 20 for the third straight season as well.  The real difference in his production this season that has allowed him to obliterate his previous high in points for a season (49 last year) has been his effectiveness as a power play distributor.  His 18 power play assists are more than four times the four he had last season and account for the difference between last year’s career high in points (49) and his new career high of 60 points this season.

Konecny leads the team in goals over the 22-game run (ten), a total that includes two power play goals, two first goals in games, and a pair of game-winning goals.  He has been a very efficient shooter as well, scoring those ten goals on 41 shots (24.4 percent).  He has had a tendency to put up points in bunches, too.  Overall this season, he has six three-point games, a total that matches that of Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon, Pittsburgh’s Evgeni Malkin, and Toronto’s Auston Matthews.  In 14 career games against the Caps, Konecny is 4-1-5, even.

Couturier’s story has been one of consistency.  In posting his 23 points over the Flyers’ last 22 games, he recorded a point in 15 of those games, and only once did he go consecutive games without recording a point.  Oddly enough, that came against two of the weaker teams in the league – Detroit and New Jersey – in early February.  It is part of a longer string of consistent performance for Couturier, who has not gone as many as three games without a point since late October.  In 55 games since then, he is 19-34-53, plus-27, and has points in 36 of those games.  Odd Couturier/Konecny Fact… both players have points in 41 games overall this season.

Couturier has not been just a scorer, either.  His 60.0 faceoff winning percentage over those 22 games is second best in the league among 131 players taking at least 100 draws (Matt Duchene: 60.3 percent).  He and Kevin Hayes are the only forwards on the club averaging more than two minutes per game on both power plays and penalty kills over the 22-game stretch, and he averages more than a minute per game in overtime situations.  He leads the club in personal shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 over the period (58.1 percent; minimum: five games).  Couturier will also be looking to find himself in the Selke Trophy mix once more this season as top defensive forward.  He has earned Selke votes in each of the previous six seasons and was named a finalist in 2017-2018.  He goes into this game with eight goals in his last 11 games and has points in nine of those games.  Couturier is 8-15-23, plus-9, in 32 career games against the Caps.

Hart is Hot.  That would be Flyer goaltender Carter Hart, who seems to be the goaltender the Flyers have been searching for since Ron Hextall retired in 1999.  Hart is one of 29 goalies to dress for the Flyers since Hextall’s retirement, and in what is a clear sign of the frustration the Flyers have had in dressing so many goalies, Hart is already 11^th on that list in wins, despite this being only his second season in the league.  If he gets the call on Wednesday and gets the win, it would be his 39^th career win, tying Michal Neuvirth for 10^th place on that list.

As we noted, he is hot.  Since stopping 26 of 28 shots in the Flyers’ 3-2 win over the Caps on January 8^th, he is 9-2-0, 2.28, .919, and he comes into this game having won his last five decisions while stopping 130 of 140 shots (.929 save percentage).  However, Hart has been two very different goalies this year based on his home-road splits.  In 22 appearances at home this season, Hart is 18-2-2, 1.67, .941, with one shutout.  On the road, though, he is 4-10-1, 3.81, .857 in 18 appearances.  He endured a stretch of nine consecutive road appearances without a win, going 0-7-0 (two no decisions), stopping only 158 of 186 shots (.849 save percentage) before winning two of his last three decisions on the road, but still suffering a poor save percentage (.883/68 saves on 77 shots).  Hart is 1-1-1, 2.29, .926 in three career appearances against the Capitals.

1.  With 38 wins this season, the Flyers, in 65 games, have already surpassed last year’s win total (37).  Odd Flyer fact about wins… They are on a pace to win 48 games this season.  They have won more than 45 games 11 times in team history, and in six of those instances they went to the Stanley Cup final, but the last instance of that happening was in 1987, where they lost in seven games to the Edmonton Oilers.

2.  Second periods have been where the Flyers have stymied opponents over their 16-5-1 run.  With 32 goals scored (tied with Minnesota for most in the league) and only 17 allowed, their plus-15 goals differential is second only to Colorado (plus-17) over the period.

3.  In their 22-game run, the Flyers were out-shot eight times and won in seven of those instances.

4.  In those 22 games, the Flyers took a lead into the third period 14 times, second most in the league (Colorado: 15), and won in all 14 instances.

5.  Don’t let the Flyers score first.  In their 22-game run of success they scored first 13 times, winning 11 times, their .846 winning percentage in those instances being best in the league.

1.  The Caps are looking for a third consecutive win on home ice, after wins over Pittsburgh and Winnipeg, which would be their first three-game winning streak at home in 2020 and first since winning three in a row at home against Boston, Tampa Bay, and Columbus over the December 11-27 period.

2.  Washington is 7-6-1 over their last 14 home games dating back to New Year’s Eve.  Their .536 points percentage is tied for 20^th in the league with Winnipeg on home ice in that span.

3.  In those 14 games, the Caps have scored 49 goals and allowed 49 goals, tied for seventh in home ice scoring offense and tied for 28^th in home ice scoring defense in that span.

4.  Over those 14 games, the Caps net power play of 7.7 percent (accounting for shorthanded goals scored against) is third-worst in the league, while their net penalty kill of 87.8 percent is tied for eighth-best in the league.

5.  Part of the problem in the recent mediocre home record is an inability to carry success into intermissions.  The Caps have taken a lead into the first intermission only four times in their last 14 home games, winning all of them.  They have taken a lead into the second intermission only five times, going 4-1-0.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Philadelphia: Ivan Provorov

An ingredient to the Flyers success generally this season has been getting offense from their defense.  Seven defensemen have recorded goals for the club this season, four of them with five or more. Two have more than 20 assists, and the same two – Matt Niskanen and Ivan Provorov – are tied for the team lead in points with 33.  Provorov leads the team’s defense in goals with 11, one of 15 defensemen so far to hit double digits in goals.

Has his offense mattered?  To a point, it has.  The Flyers are 7-2-2 in games in which he scored a goal, 19-6-3 in the 28 games in which he had a point, 14-7-4 in the 25 games in which he had three or more shots on goal.  Those are very good number, but not eye-popping.  They are more or less what one might expect when a defenseman is engaged in the offense.  He has been on ice for even strength goals scored against the team in 37 of his 65 games, and the team is 16-17-4 in those games.  Again, this is not all that surprising, based on the fact that Provorov averages 19:08 in even strength ice time per game, most among Flyer defensemen.  It is fair to say that thing happen when he is on the ice, not all of it good for the club.  The burden of carrying a heavy workload.

Over the 22-game run of success for the Flyers since January 8^th, others have taken up a bigger share of the offense from the blue line.  Provorov has two goals in that span (fourth among defensemen), and nine points (tied for third).  Still, his contributions are part of a broader sharing of the offensive burden.  Three Flyer defensemen – Matt Niskanen, Travis Sanheim, and Robert Hagg – all have three goals, and Niskanen and Sanheim have posted double digits in points (16 and 10, respectively) over the 16-5-1 run.  Provorov is 1-4-5, plus-5, in 15 career games against Washington.

Washington: Garnet Hathaway

Every streak starts with “one.”  When Garnet Hathaway scored a goal in the Caps’ 4-3 win over Winnipeg on February 25^th, it broke a 24-game streak without a goal, and it was his first goal on home ice since he had empty net goal in a 5-2 win over the New York Rangers on October 18^th.  The last time he recorded a goal on home ice against a goaltender was in the Caps’ home opener, oddly enough the first goal scored by the Caps on home ice this season, in a 3-2 overtime loss to the Carolina Hurricanes.  But he has that “one” and can make it two in a row of goal-games on home ice against the Flyers on Wednesday.

Part of the issue with Hathaway might be in his shooting frequency, which is something to notice about the fourth line in general.  Hathaway is averaging less than a shot on goal per home game (29 in 30 home games), as are his frequent fourth line teammates, Nic Dowd (23 in 24 home games), and the recently replaced Brendan Leipsic (26 in 30 home games).

That is not to say Hathaway does not make his contributions.  His 85 hits on home ice are second among forwards to Tom Wilson (146).  He has 21 blocked shots, one of five Caps forwards with at least 20 on home ice this season.  He has a positive takeaway-to-giveaway ratio (10 takeaways to nine giveaways).  His orneriness on home ice is reflected in his 52 penalty minutes, which leads the team by a healthy margin (Wilson: 31), but even with that, he has drawn 18 penalties on home ice while taking 16, his 3.44 penalties drawn per 60 minutes on home ice being more than twice as many as the next highest forward (T.J. Oshie: 1.54 penalties drawn per 60 minutes) and his net 0.38 penalties per 60 minutes ranking third highest among Caps forwards, behind Oshie (1.13) and Leipsic (0.45).  Although his offense has been sparse, Hathaway has been a skilled practitioner in hockey’s grittier arts on home ice this season.  In eight career games against the Flyers, he is 0-1-1, minus-3.

In the end…

If someone had remarked that the Caps would play a critical game against a team from Pennsylvania in March, one would have assumed they were talking about the Pittsburgh Penguins.  Well, that game will come on Saturday.  But this game against the Flyers, who sit only three points behind the Caps in the Metropolitan Division standings, qualifies as “critical.”  The advantage for the Caps here, despite the Flyers’ momentum over the past eight weeks, is that the Flyers are just 15-15-3 on the road this season, tied for 20^th in points percentage in the league (.500).  The Caps have hardly been earthshaking at home, posting an 18-9-5 record overall (.641 points percentage ranking ninth in the league) and 3-5-1 in their last eight games at Capital One Arena.  This game could feature many twists, turns, and lead changes before it is settled.  But when it is, the Caps will have extended their division lead.

Capitals 5 – Flyers 3

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 65: Capitals at Wild, March 1st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals end their short two-game road trip with a visit to Minnesota to face the Wild on Sunday evening.  The Caps will be looking for a split on the road trip after dropping a 3-0 decision to the Winnipeg Jets on Thursday night, while the Wild will return home after sweeping a two-game road trip and will try to extend their winning streak to four games overall.

Then and Now…

This will be the 25^th meeting in the all-time regular season series between the teams, the Caps with a 14-9-1 record overall and 5-6-1 in Minnesota.  Since 2005-2006, the Caps are 12-5-1 against the Wild overall and 5-3-1 on the road.  This will be the first of two games between the teams this season, the rematch to come in Washington on April 2^nd.

Active Leaders vs. Opponent…

Noteworthy Opponents…

Only one player in franchise history has pulled on a Wild sweater more than 1,000 times.  If Mikko Koivu does so again on Sunday, it will be his 1,024^th career game.  Koivu also ranks high on the all-time franchise lists for goals scored (205, second to Marion Gaborik’s 219), assists (503/first), points (708/first), plus-minus (plus-73/first), penalty minutes (592/second), power play goals (60/second), shorthanded goals (10/second), and game-winning goals (33/third). 

This season is an important one for Koivu, whose current deal with a $5.5 million cap hit expires at the end of the season.  He will turn 37 years of age on March 12^th, and with what for him is something of a sub-par year (4-16-20, plus-5, in 50 games), it is a question whether he will return for a 16^th season with the Wild, and if he does, if there will be a substantial pay cut to do so.  The slippage in performance has come at both ends of the ice, if Selke Trophy consideration is a key.  Last season was the first since 2013-2014 that he did not receive any Selke votes as the league’s top defensive forward, and was two seasons removed from his only season as a Selke finalist, in 2016-2017.

Koivu has only two goals in his last 33 games, both of them coming in a 5-4 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets last Tuesday, although he does have 11 assists over that span.  Koivu is 3-11-14, minus-4, in 17 career games against the Caps.

Ryan Suter might get more attention among Minnesota defensemen because of his big contract, but Jared Spurgeon is the active leader among Wild defensemen in games played for the club (648) and second all-time (Nick Schultz played in 743 games).  Spurgeon, a wisp of a defenseman by NHL standards (5’9”/167 pounds) is the franchise’s all-time leader in goals by a defenseman (81), is second in assists (196), and is second in points (277).

Spurgeon has had a productive season for the Wild this year, posting 11 goals in 57 games, putting him on a pace to match or pass his career high of 14 goals set last season.  Three of those goals came in a 5-3 win over the Edmonton Oilers on February 21^st, the second hat trick by a defenseman in Wild history.  Caps fans might remember the first one.  Ryan Suter did it on January 4, 2014 in 5-3 win over the Caps in Minnesota.  Spurgeon is 2-2-4, minus-8, in nine career games against the Caps.

Devan Dubnyk has had a difficult year in goal for the Wild, posting a 3.34 goals against average so far this season, 0.80 goals more than last year (2.54),  His .892 save percentage is his worst since 2013-2014, when he had a .891 save percentage in a season split between Edmonton and Nashville.  It has paved the way for Alex Stalock to get most of the starts this season (32 to 27 for Dubnyk).  Now in his ninth season, and fourth with Minnesota after five years with San Jose, the 32 year old has already set career highs in games played (34), games started (32), wins (18), and shutouts (four).  His goals against average (2.60) and save percentage (.910) are good, if unspectacular, although both are his best for a season appearing in five or more games since he was 1.87/.932 in 24 games in his first full season with San Jose, in 2013-2014.

Stalock has been hot over the last six weeks, going 9-2-1, 1.91, .925, with three shutouts in his last 12 appearances and is bringing a personal four-game winning streak into this game.  Stalock lost in his only career appearance against the Caps, stopping 40 of 43 shots in a 3-1 loss to the Caps on November 18, 2017.

1.  Minnesota is feast or famine on special teams at home, with a 26.2 percent power play (sixth in the league) and a 75.3 percent penalty kill (29^th).

2.  The Wild are stingy in allowing shots on home ice, giving up 28.3 per game, fourth fewest in the league.

3.  Winning faceoffs is not a thing for the Wild at home, their 48.5 percent winning percentage being fifth-lowest in the league.

4.  Only two teams have won more times by a single goal on home ice than the Wild (nine) – Columbus and Buffalo have done so 11 times apiece.

5.  The Wild lead the league in wins on home ice when leading after one period (12).

1.  The Caps remain perfect in games in which they take a lead into the first intermission on the road (9-0-0), one of three teams remaining with perfect records in such situations.  Colorado is 9-0-0, and Pittsburgh in 7-0-0.

2.  Only Tampa Bay has won more one-goal games on the road (11) than the Caps (10, tied with Calgary and Dallas).

3.  The Caps have allowed the fifth-fewest shot attempts at 5-on-5 in road games to date (1,343).

4.  Only four teams have been credited with more hits in road games than the Caps (762).

5.  Washington leads the league in third period goals scored on the road (46).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Minnesota: Eric Staal

Eric Staal is not the scorer he once was.  He did have a 42-goal season in 2017-2018 with the Wild, but that seemed more like a last gasp as a high-volume goal scorer, his only 30-plus goal season since 2010-2011, when he had 33 with Carolina.  He remains a reliable 50-point player into his mid-30’s (he is 35 years old), currently within four points of his fourth consecutive 50 point season, and the 76 points he had in 2017-2018 were the most he had since he had 76 points for Carolina in 2010-2011. 

The point remains that while Staal is not the elite point producer he once was, he remains a cagey, dangerous offensive player.  Think of him, perhaps, as “Joe Thornton-lite” in that regard.  Another of Staal’s virtues over the years has been his durability. He has appeared in every one of his team’s games ten times, including this season to date, and his durability has not affected his consistency this season.  Staal has points in 11 of his last 18 games, going 3-10-13 overall.  That includes points in eight of his last 13 home games, over which he is 2-8-10.  In 78 career games against the Caps, Staal is 30-44-74, plus-3.

Washington: Radko Gudas

Radko Gudas has been pretty much as advertised, at least on offense, when his season is looked at as a whole.  He is 2-13-15 in 62 games with the Caps this season after finishing 4-16-20 in 77 games with the Flyers last season.  Perhaps it is the difference in systems, but his blocked shots are just over half (75) of what he had last season (133), and his hits are down (from 255 to 162).  On the other hand, he is on the brink of matching a career high in takeaways (he needs one to match last year’s 23), and his giveaways are down considerably, from 509 last season to 34 this season.

Gudas had been in an offensive slump of late, though, posting a single point (an assist) in his last 18 games.  He does not have a point on the road in the 2020 portion of the schedule, his last one coming on an assist in a 6-4 loss in Carolina to the Hurricanes on December 28^th.  Gudas is 0-4-4, minus-4, in 12 career games against the Wild.

In the end…

The Capitals just cannot seem to get any traction these days.  Since they had a four-game winning streak in late January, they are 5-8-1, and only once did they cobble together consecutive wins, that streak coming to an end with the loss in Winnipeg in their last outing.  Time to start trying once more to build some momentum.

Capitals 4 – Wild 3

A NO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 64: Jets 3 - Capitals 0

The Washington Capitals headed west on Thursday night to wrap up the back half of a home-and-home set against the Winnipeg Jets after winning the first of the two meetings, 4-3, in a Gimmick on Tuesday.  The Caps had chances but could convert none of them, dropping a 3-0 decision to the Jets for a split of the home-and-home set between the clubs.

First Period

The Jets opened the scoring in the seventh minute of the game When Dmitry Kulikov took a pass at the left point from Blake Wheeler and, using Nicklas Backstrom as a screen, fired a shot past Backstrom’s right hip that sailed on through and over goalie Ilya Samsonov’s blocker to make it 1-0, 6:33 into the game.

The Caps would fend off two Winnipeg power plays, including 1:55 of a 5-on-3 advantage with defensemen Brenden Dillon and Radko Gudas in the penalty box, in keeping the game a one-goal affair as the teams went to the first intermission.

-- Winnipeg let in shots on goal, 9-7, while the teams fiished the first period with 17 shot attempts apiece.

-- Seven different Capitals had one shot on goal; Richard Panik led the club with four shot attempts.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov had another hot start in the faceoff circle, winning all five draws he took.

-- The Caps held the Jets without a shot on goal over the 1:55 of a 5-on-3 advantage in the first period.

Second Period

The Caps opened with a chance when Jakub Vrana broke in alone in the first minute, but he was foiled by goalie Connor Hellebuyck.  Alex Ovechkin had a chance in the second minute when he accepted a pass from Tom Wilson between the hash marks, but his shot at what looked like an open net was kicked aside by Hellebuyck at the last moment.  Vrana had another mini-break nine minutes into the period and beat Hellebuyck with a shot, but it rattled off the post and out to keep the Caps from tying the game.

The Jets got their third power play of the game when Evgeny Kuznetsov was whistled for cross-checking at the 11:37 mark of the period.  The Caps killed off the penalty and had a chance shortly thereafter, Alec Ovechkin one-timing a pass from Kuznetsov, but Hellebuyck slid across to smother the shot without a rebound, and the Jets remained in front.

Ovechkin drew a hooking call on Neal Pionk 15:07 into the period to put the Caps on their first power play of the evening.  Half way into the man advantage, Dmitry Orlov fed Ilya Kovalchuk for a one timer ticketed for the far corner, but Hellebuyck gloved it down. 

Just after the Pionk penalty expired, the Jets went shorthanded again when Anthony Bitetto hooked Kovalchuk behind the Winnipeg net.  The Caps failed to convert the opportunity, and the game remained 1-0 in favor of the home team after 40 minutes.

-- The Caps out-shot the Jets, 13-11, in the period and out-attempted them, 25-22.

--Alex Ovechkin, who did not have a shot attempt in the first period, had five in the second, three on goal to tie Lars Eller and T.J. Oshie in shots on goal through two periods.

-- The Caps were 23-for-36 in faceoffs through two periods (63.9 percent); Nic Dowd was the only Capital under 50 percent (2-for-6/33.3 percent).

Third Period

The Caps went on their third power play of the night just over a minute into the period, Nick Jensen drawing a hooking call on Dylan Demelo.  Washington drew a blank on the man advantage and remained one goal back.

The Caps inability to take advantages of their chances bit them in the seventh minute when Mark Scheifele outdueled two Caps for a loose puck below the goal line, then fed Kyle Connor for a one-timer from the slot to make it 2-0, Jets.

The Caps pulled Ilya Samsonov with over two minutes left in regulation looking to end the shutout and get the equalizer, but Scheifele ended the Caps’ hopes with an empty netter with 1:28 left to make it 3-0.  That would be how the teams skated off, splitting the home-and-home set.

Other Stuff…

-- After posting a four-game winning streak on the road from January 18^th through February 13^th, this was the Caps’ fourth straight loss on the road.

-- In their four-game road losing streak, the Caps scored a total of five goals and were shutout in this game.

-- This was the Caps’ second instance of being shut out on the road this season, the first being a 3-0 whitewashing by the Columbus Blue Jackets on December 16^th.

-- After winning the first ten road decisions of his career, Ilya Samsonov lost his second straight road decision in this game.

-- The Caps out-shot the Jets, 33-32, and held a 65-55 edge in shot attempts.

-- Washington finished the game winners of 32 of 52 faceoffs (61.5 percent), their second-best faceoff winning percentage of the season (67.3 percent against Boston on November 16^th).

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov was 12-for-15 (80.0 percent) on draws.

-- Alex Ovechkin and Lars Eller led the Caps with four shots on goal apiece.  They also had seven shot attempts apiece to lead the team.

-- Dmitry Orlov led the team in ice time (23:28).

-- Every Capital had at least one shot attempt; Nic Dowd, Garnet Hathaway, and Tom Wilson were the only Caps without a shot on goal.

In the end…

It was an inconsistent performance by the Caps, who were dominated by the Jets, starting late in the third period of Tuesday’s game.  Winnipeg outscored the Caps, 6-0, over the last 86:27 of ice time between the clubs in the home-and-home.  The Caps managed a split of the two games, but it doesn’t even seem that good, frankly.