Washington Capitals 2020-2021 Previews -- Goaltenders: Ilya Samsonov

Ilya Samsonov

“The Crown. Place it upon your head and you assume a different post-tranquil yet radiating assurance. Never show doubt, never lose your dignity beneath the crown, or it will not fit. It will seem to be destined for one more worthy. Do not wait for a coronation...

...the greatest emperors crown themselves."
--Robert Greene

It is his net, now.  Braden has gone to Vancouver, Henrik Lundqvist had the misfortune of having to repair a health condition.   What might have seemed a murky issue over the last six months has come into clear focus.  Ilya Samsonov is who the Washington Capital will depend upon to backstop the team to another playoff berth and, hopefully, a second Stanley Cup.  It is a lot for a 23-year old with a grand total of 26 games of NHL experience, none of them in the postseason, to bear.

Those 26 games provided evidence that the Caps were wise to select Samsonov as the first goaltender selected (22^nd overall) in the 2015 Entry Draft.  He posted 16 wins, fourth-most among rookie goaltenders in Capitals history.  Those 16 wins represented the fifth instance since 2005-2006 in which a rookie goalie recorded 15 or more wins in 30 or fewer games.  His 2.55 goals against average was fifth-best among rookies in team history (minimum: 15 games), and his save percentage of .913 was also fifth-best in that group of goaltenders.  He became the sixth goalie in Caps history to post a shutout in his rookie campaign and the first to do it since Semyon Varlamov posted a pair of shutouts in 2009-2010.

Samsonov also set an NHL record, becoming the first goaltender in league history to win his first nine decisions on the road, a streak he would extend to ten wins.

Odd Samsonov Fact… Ilya Samsonov was 4-3-1, 3.30, .886 (two no-decisions) in ten games last season in ten games against this year’s East Division teams.

Odd Samsonov Fact II… Even with his late season collapse, Samsonov finished his rookie season with the second-best win total in road games (10, trailing only Michal Neuvirth (12 in 2010-2011) among rookie goalies in Caps history, fourth in goals against average (2.55), and third in save percentage (.911).

Fearless’ Take…

Samsonov was not just a very good goalie, overall, in the context of being a rookie, he acquitted himself very well among goalies overall.  There were 58 goalies who logged at least 1,000 minute this season (Samsonov had 1,411), and of that group, Samsonov had the 11^th-best goals against average (2.55), 25^th-best save percentage (.913).  He struggled at the end, but he was hardly alone in going flat after January.  It is here we would remind folks that Samsonov has played a total of 68 games (63 regular season, five postseason) over two seasons in North America.  An optimist might think he is entering the steepest grade on his upward development arc.

Cheerless’ Take…

The season doesn’t end in January, cuz.  He was 16-2-1, 2.12, .925, with one shutout through January 31^st.  That goals against average led the league at the time, and his save percentage was sixth (minimum: 10 games).  After that, though…yeesh.  He went 0-4-1, 4.34, .869 in his last six appearances from February 1^st onward.  He had the second-worst goals against average of 74 goalies to dress for at least one game starting February 1^st, and only four goalies had a worse save percentage (one of them was David Ayres, an operations manager in his day job who, pressed into service as emergency goalie for the Carolina Hurricanes, allowed two goals on ten shots in 28 minutes while getting a win over the Toronto Maple Leafs in what was among the better stories of the season).

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021:

• 50 career NHL games played (he currently has 26)
• 2,000 minutes (1,411)
• 1,000 saves (629)

The Big Question… Can Ilya Samsonov handle a number one goaltending burden for a contender?

Let’s face it.  If the answer to this question is “no,” or even if it is “well…maybe,” this season is not going to end well for the Capitals.  And that brings us to an alarming fact.  Samsonov played a full game’s worth of minutes 21 times last season, and there was a clear bright line regarding workload that is worrisome.  He was 11-0-0, 1.54, .941, with one shutout in those 11 full games in which he faced fewer than 29 shots on goal.  However, he was 4-4-2, 3.49, .899 in games in which he faced 29 or more shots on goal.  If Samsonov is going to get number one goaltender minutes, he cannot count on being protected by getting low shot volumes every night, or even particularly often.  Part of his maturation process is how to manage nights when a lot of rubber is flying his way.  Unfortunately, a 56-game season does not provide much chance for a learning curve.

In the end…

Braden Holtby and Olaf Kolzig are the two best goalies in Capitals history.  Each of them took quite a while to grab the reins of the number one goaltending job permanently.  Kolzig did not do so until his seventh NHL season, and he did so only after an injury to then number one goalie Bill Ranford took him out of the lineup.  Holtby did not become the clear number one goalie until his fifth NHL season, navigating his way around Michal Neuvirth, Tomas Vokoun, and Jaroslav Halak to eventually grab the job by the throat.

Ilya Samsonov is taking over the number one job in his second NHL season, doing it while coming off of injury, and doing it without much of a net under him (the Caps’ backup situation remains a bit muddled, even if Vitek Vanacek, himself having not yet played a game in the NHL, has the job for now).  It explains the Caps spending as much time, effort, and attention on they did to try to shore up the defense in front of him this season.  But in the end, it will be Samsonov who will be the one who has to stop the puck.  He needs to play as if he deserves the crown he now wears.

Projection: 40 games, 21-11-5, 2.48, .916, one shutout

Washington Capitals 2020-2021 Previews -- Defensemen: Jonas Siegenthaler

Jonas Siegenthaler

“Whoever wants to reach a distant goal must take small steps.”
-- Saul Bellow

It all seemed to be falling into place for Washington Capitals defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler.  Drafted in the second round of the 2015 Entry Draft, played another two seasons in Europe, came across to jon the Hershey Bears for a couple of brief stints before getting regular time in 2017-2018, splitting time between Hershey and Washington in 2018-2019, and getting a regular spot in the Caps lineup (64 games) in 2019-2020.  In the normal order of things, Siegenthaler might have built on a solid season last year and added minutes this year to the 15:44 per game he averaged last season.

That might have been a more likely outcome given that among the other five defensemen to dress for 50 or more games for the Caps last season, Radko Gudas left in free agency, and Michal Kempny’s debut in the new season would be delayed significantly as he recuperated from Achilles tendon surgery.  Even the addition of Brenden Dillion and his subsequent re-signing with the Caps did little to change a reasonable assumption that Siegenthaler would take the next step up the ladder of responsibility on the Caps’ blue line.

And then the Caps dropped the bombshell that they signed Zdeno Chara to a one-year contract.  Suddenly, Siegenthaler seemed to have become the seventh defensemen when six dress for most games.  On most nights (mostly when Zdeno Chara needs a break, or another defenseman is dinged up or forgets how to play the position), Siegenthaler would appear to have a reservation for the press-box.

Odd Siegenthaler Fact… Jonas Siegenthaler has played more NHL games (90) than any other defenseman born in Zurich, Switzerland.  Okay, the only other one is Tim Ramholt, and he played in only one NHL game.

Odd Siegenthaler Fact II… The last time a Caps defenseman averaged more shorthanded ice time than Siegenthaler (3:11) was when Karl Alzner averaged 3:32 in 2013-2014.

Fearless’ Take…

Jonas Siegenthaler has come a long way in his brief career to date.  Of 55 defensemen to dress for the Caps in their 22-year old season and younger, he ranks 17^th in games played (90); he is tied for fourth in plus-minus (plus-17 with, among others, John Carlson); he is one of only 21 members in that group with at least one game-winning goal (he has one).  He is not an offensive defenseman, at least at this point in his career, but he has shown some glimpses of become at least a credible two-way defenseman.  What he appears to resemble, at least for the moment, is a young, similarly aged Karl Alzner.  There are worse places to be.

Cheerless’ Take…

We keep taking whacks at this dead horse, but… seven games, no goals, no assists, no points, minus-7.  That was Siegenthaler’s scoring line in the postseason last year (he did not have a point in his last 20 regular season games, either).  He does not yet have a point in 11 career playoff games while averaging 14:40 per game.

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021:

• 100 career NHL games (he currently has 90)
• 100 career penalty minutes (53)
• 2,000 career minutes played (1,375)

The Big Question… Has Siegenthaler’s progress stalled?

There are really two parts to this question.  The first is not so much a question as it is an obvious fact.  If the choice is a young, still growing defenseman or a hall-of-famer to be, even if he is at the end of his long career, for a team with a limited window to compete for a Stanley Cup, the obvious choice is the latter, unless there is nothing left in Zdeno Chara’s tank.  That is not a commentary on Siegenthaler’s skill or potential; he is a victim of circumstance (the Caps’ remaining window of competitiveness) and availability (Chara being available, a contender has to consider adding him).

The second part of the question speaks to Siegenthaler specifically.  His development and advancement has followed a steady upward arc since he was drafted.  Now, he is looking at taking a step backward in terms of the responsibility he assumes in games played, ice time granted, and roles assigned.  Will this have a deleterious effect on his development?  Probably not.  The best spin one might put on this is that Siegenthaler is now in a position to spell any of the bottom four defensemen for whatever reason or circumstance might dictate.

In the end…

It would be a bit much to say Jonas Siegenthaler has been a “surprise” development in his brief career to date.  He was, after all a second round draft pick in a 2015 draft top heavy with defenseman draft picks (he was the 19^th defenseman taken in the first 57 picks).  He had experience in international competition and had a 122-game apprenticeship with Hershey in the AHL before getting full time work with the Caps.  And last season, he led all Caps defensemen in shorthanded ice time per game while also posting a plus-8 differential in goals scored for and against at even strength.  His advancement has been steady, his assigned roles expanding.  That he takes a back seat, or a seat in the press box, at least to start this season is another small step in his development, even if it looks to be sideways instead of forward.

Projection: 24 games, 2-6-8, plus-1

Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Washington Capitals 2020-2021 Previews -- Defensemen: Justin Schultz

Justin Schultz

“I have always been delighted at the prospect of a new day, a fresh try, one more start, with perhaps a bit of magic waiting somewhere behind the morning.”
-- J. B. Priestley

From time to time, there are players who come along in the NHL who show just enough to be a tease, offering a glimpse of what might be an exceptional career, who have a “breakout” season only to find that they did not have it in them to sustain a high level of performance.  Justin Schultz might be one of those players.

Schultz was taken by the Anaheim Ducks in the second round of the 2008 draft but never suited up for them, unable to reach a contract agreement with the club and ultimately catching on with the Edmonton Oilers as a free agent in July 2012.  Schultz had a fine rookie season with the Oilers in 2012-2013, dressing for all 48 games of the abbreviated season, posting a scoring line of 8-19-27, and finishing seventh in Calder Trophy voting for rookie of the year (note: Caps defenseman Brenden Dillion finished tenth in voting for the Calder in that season while with the Dallas Stars).  When he went 11-22-33 in 74 games in his sophomore season, his future looked bright.  He slipped a bit the following year (6-25-31 in 81 games in 2014-2015), and then his production fell significantly to open the 2015-2016 season (3-7-10 in 45 games). 

With the Oilers in selling mode at the trading deadline, they shipped Schultz to the Pittsburgh Penguins for a third-round pick in the 2016 Entry Draft.  Schultz put up modest numbers with the Pens (1-7-8 in 18 games, averaging a bit over 14 minutes a game, , his lowest average as an NHL’er) and did not stand out in the Pens’ Stanley Cup run that season (0-4-4 in 15 games).  But the following season he had what might have been a breakout year at age 26 – 12-39-51, plus-27, in 78 games averaging more than 20 minutes a game.

However, Schultz’ production was halved the next season (4-23-27 in 63 games) and halved again in 2018-2019 (2-13-15 in 29 games, a season in which he lost 53 games to a leg fracture).  Schultz returned from injury to go 3-9-12 in 46 games with the Pens last season, another season in which he lost a chun of games to injury, but he seemed stuck with disappointing production.

It became apparent Schultz was not in the Penguins’ plans going forward, and he was signed by the Caps to a two-year/$8.0 million deal last October.

Odd Schultz Fact… Justin Schultz was taken in the second round of the 2008 Entry Draft (43^rd overall), the last of a four-defenseman string of players taken.  That string started with Aaron Ness (40^th overall), who was taken by the New York Islanders, but who would play in 18 games for the Caps over three seasons.

Odd Schutz Fact II… Justin Schultz is the only player in University of Wisconsin history to win Defense Player of the Year award in the Western Collegiate Hockey Association twice.

Fearless’ Take…

For his ups and downs, Justin Schultz has put together some respectable numbers on the offensive side f the puck.  Since he entered the league in 2012-2013, he ranks 41^st of 186 active defensemen in points per game (0.44), more than defensemen such as Matt Niskanen (0.43), Jacob Trouba (0.43), Tyler Myers (0.37), and Zdeno Chara (0.36; minimum 250 games played).  He is also tied for 24^th among that group of active defensemen in power play points (89, with Brent Seabrook) over that span.

Cheerless’ Take…

So, Justin Schultz went 12-39-51 in 78 games in 2016-2017 and won a Stanley Cup.  Then, over his last three seasons with the Penguins, he went 9-45-54 in 138 games and didn’t win anything, except perhaps some grumbling from Penguin fans.  His playoff performance was a little better over that same period on a per-game basis, but it did fall off slightly.  He was 4-9-13 in 21 playoff games in 2016-2017, but he was a combined 2-10-12 in 20 games over the next three postseasons.

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021:

• 500 career NHL games (he currently has 482)

The Big Question… Can Justin Schultz rediscover his game in new surroundings?

Signing Justin Schultz to a two-year/$8 million contract is not a “low-risk/high-reward” sort of gamble.  He is another of that intermediate group of defensemen in a salary cap range of $3.5 to $4.5 million.  He carries the third-highest cap hit among Washington defensemen, behind John Carlson ($8.0 million) and Dmitry Orlov ($5.1 million).  He is here with an expectation of being a second-pair defenseman who can log some power play minutes (he has averaged more than two minutes of power play ice time per game in each of his eight seasons).  But his performance on a year-to-year basis has been uneven.  He had a good beginning in Edmonton in his first two seasons, tailed off, got a spark once more in his first full season in Pittsburgh, and then tailed off again.  He brings that inconsistency in performance along with some injuries in his baggage, but joining his fourth NHL franchise, perhaps he can find that spark one more time.

In the end…

Justin Schultz is a defenseman with skill, particularly on the offensive side of the puck, but realizing his potential given his skill set has been a challenge from year to year.  He is likely to have a reasonably well-defined role in Washington, getting second pair minutes at even strength and the occasional turn on the power play (depending on whether head coach Peter Laviolette chooses to use Dmitry Orlov as a second-team power play defenseman).  Perhaps a well-defined role will allow Schultz to find the magic waiting somewhere behind the morning.

Projection: 48 games, 3-12-15, even

Washington Capitals 2020-2021 Previews -- Defensemen: Dmitry Orlov

Dmitry Orlov

 "Any general statement is like a check drawn on a bank. Its value depends on what is there to meet it.”
-- Ezra Pound

Quietly and methodically, Dmitry Orlov has been climbing the rankings of Washington Capitals defensemen.  If Orlov has his typical season, he could finish on the doorstep of the top-ten defensemen all time in games played, in the top ten in goals and game-winning goals.  He is already in the top ten in assists (tenth), points (tenth), plus-minus (tied for sixth), even strength points (tenth), overtime goals (tied for fifth), hits (second since the league began compiling them in 2005-2006), blocked shots (seventh), and takeaways (third).  A typical season would have him climb a notch or two (or more) in each of these categories).

Orlov has done it with consistency.  His point totals over the last five seasons have clustered between 27 and 33 points, and he accomplished that without missing a game.  The 397 games he appeared in over that period is tied with Keith Yandle among defensemen and one fewer than Brent Burns.

Getting a lot of ice time last season was not a recipe for success as far as Orlov was concerned.  In 24 games in which he skated more than 23 minutes, the Caps were just 11-8-5.  At the other end, the Caps were 8-3-1 in the 12 games in which he skated less than 20 minutes.

Orlov did have a decent year in terms of his personal possession numbers.  His 53.4 percent shot attempts-on ice at 5-on-5 was, in fact, the second best of his career (54.3 percent in 2016-2017) and was his first season over 50 percent since that career best season.

Odd Orlov Fact… Only three players in team history have recorded more seasons having played in 82 games before their 30^th birthday than the four recorded by Dmitry Orlov (he will turn 30 in July): Karl Alzner (six), Nicklas Backstrom (six), and John Carlson (five).

Odd Orlov Fact II… Dmitry Orlov is the only native of Novokuznetsk, Russia, to have played in the NHL whose first name is not “Sergei” (Bobrovsky and Zinoviev).

Odd Orlov Fact III... After posting 15 goals in the first 105 games he played against current Metropolitan Division teams, Orlov has no goals in his last 60 games against Metro opponents.

Fearless’ Take…

Dmitry Orlov quietly chews up minutes.  Since he came into the league in 2011-2012, he has more games with 20 or more minutes of ice time for the Caps (288) than all but two defensemen: John Carlson (607) and Matt Niskanen (350).  And, in 2019-2020 he recorded his second-highest average points per game (0.39) of his career, just short of the 0.40 points per game he posted in 2016-2017.

Cheerless’ Take…

Dmitry Orlov’s season mirrored the Caps in having a good start and a weaker finish.  In the 2019 portion of the season, Orlov was 3-16-19, plus-3, in 41 games.  But in the 2020 portion of the regular season he went 1-7-8, plus-2, in 28 games.  And then he was 0-3-3, minus-1, in eight postseason games, extending his streak without a goal in the playoffs to 23 games.

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021:

• 200 career points (he currently has 180)
• 11^th all-time in games played by a defenseman for the Caps (he needs 55 to pass Ken Klee (570))
• 10^th all-time in goals scored by a defenseman for the Caps (he needs seven to pass Robert Picard (42) and Klee (43)).
• 9^th all-time in points by a defenseman for the Caps (he needs 23 to pass Rod Langway (202)).
• 6^th all-time in plus-minus by a defenseman for the Caps (he needs one to break a tie with Karl Alzner (plus-61))
• 9^th all-time in game-winning goals by a defenseman for the Caps (he needs two to pass Al Iafrate and Larry Murphy (nine apiece))
• 4^th all-time in minutes played by a defenseman for the Caps (he needs 1,217 to pass Brendan Witt (10,768) and Sergei Gonchar (11,478))
• 5^th all-time in blocked shots by a defenseman for the Caps (since the league began compiling them in 2005-2006, he needs 17 to pass Matt Niskanen (579) and Jeff Schultz (592))

The Big Question… Can a Dmitry Orlov-John Carlson pairing make for some magic on the blue line? 

John Carlson already has a body of work that puts him in the top echelon of defensemen for a franchise that has had a lot of very good ones.  Dmitry Orlov is methodically, brick by brick, building a case to be included in that same group, eventually.  What is unknown at the moment is how much a pairing of these accomplished defensemen can perform as an elite pairing.  Orlov was paired, for the most part, with Matt Niskanen in the Caps Stanley Cup season of 2017-2018, and he was a fine complement to Niskanen.  Carlson does not have the same sort of edge with which Niskanen played, and he is a more productive offensive defenseman, but there are similarities in his style that tease at the potential of this pairing to be one of the bright spots in this lineup.  What this pairing will have to avoid, is being absent minded in its own end.  Orlov does seem to have an adaptable game though, one that can allow him to shoulder additional defensive responsibility without diminishing the consistency of his offensive production.

In the end…

The 2009 Entry Draft has proved to be deep in quality NHL defensemen.  It is easy for a player like Dmitry Orlov, taken 55^th overall in that draft with a career marked more by consistency than electrifying moments and gaudy numbers, to get lost in the glow of defensemen such as Victor Hedman (taken second overall in that draft), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (sixth), Ryan Ellis (11^th), Dmitry Kulikov (14^th), and Nick Leddy (16^th).  But Orlov ranks 10^th among defensemen taken in that draft in games played (516), tenth in goals (37), eighth in assists (143), eighth in points (180), tied for fourth in plus-minus (plus-61), 11^th in power play points (21), seventh in game-winning goals (eight), and 11^th in ice-time per game (19:53).  There is little reason to believe that Orlov will do anything but make a statement that adds, in his painstakingly consistent fashion, to what has been an impressive body of work to date.

Projection: 56 games, 6-14-20, plus-7

Washington Capitals 2020-2021 Previews -- Defensemen: Nick Jensen

Nick Jensen

“Everyone has some inner power that awaits discovery.”
-- Richard Paul Evans

“Nick is a reliable modern-day defenseman who we feel can defend well and log valuable minutes for our club.  At 28 years of age, we feel he is just entering his prime.”

That is what Washington Capitals general manager Brian MacLellan said about defensemen Nick Jensen when he was obtained from the Detroit Red Wings with a 2019 fifth round draft pick for defenseman Madison Bowey and a 2020 second round draft pick in February 2019.

Almost three years later, Jensen has not borne a particularly heavy minutes burden (17:38 per game in 88 games with the Caps), and his personal shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 is underwater (49.7 percent.  And, his next level numbers are not especially impressive in his Capitals tenure.  He is not a particularly physical defensemen, but among the eight Caps defensemen dressing for at least 50 games over the last two seasons, he ranks seventh in credited hits per 60 minutes (3.09).  He also ranks seventh in blocked shots per 60 minutes (3.75).

Odd Jensen Fact… The Jensen trade in February 2019 resulted in prospect forward Aliaksei Protas being drafted by the Capitals.  Follow along.  The 2019 fifth round pick that came with Jensen in the trade was originally owned by the Buffalo Sabres. They traded that pick to Detroit for forward Scott Wilson in December 2017.  The Red Wings included this pick with Jensen in the trade to the Caps. On June 22, 2019, the Caps traded this pick and a fourth round pick in the 2019 draft to the New Jersey Devils for a third round pick (originally the property of the San Jose Sharks, a different story) that the Caps used to draft Protas.

Odd Jensen Fact II… Nick Jensen owns a streak of the sort no one wants.  He has gone 145 regular season games without a goal.  That is the longest streak of games played without a goal in the league entering the new season.  Without a goal since he potted a pair for the Detroit Red Wings in a 5-3 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs on October 11, 2018, Jensen is still looking for his first goal with the Capitals.

Fearless’ Take…

His numbers do not impress, but getting ice time has not hurt Jensen.  In 17 games last season in which he skated at least 20 minutes, the Caps were 11-2-4.  And at least some engagement offensively helped.  That Caps were 8-0-1 in games in which Jensen recorded at least two shots on goal.

Cheerless’ Take…

Geez, cuz, you would think an NHL player would score goals more frequently by luck alone.  Since Jensen came into the league in 2016-2017, 674 players have dressed for at least 100 games.  Only 16 of them have a worse shooting percentage than Jensen (1.9), and no player in the league has matched him for sheer futility.  He is the only player in the league since 2016-2017 with more than 300 shots on goal (321) and a shooting percentage under 2.0 percent.

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021:

• 300 career NHL games (he currently has 278)
• 100 games with the Capitals (88)
• 100 career penalty minutes (73)
• 5,000 career minutes played (4,987)

The Big Question… Can the Capitals afford a second defenseman that poses no offensive threat?

Nick Jensen came into the league in 2016-2017.  Since then, he is tied for 30^th among defensemen in games played without a goal.  Brenden Dillon tops that list with 304 games.  Jensen ranks 13^th among those defensemen in games played without recording a point (229; Dillon is tied for second with 248 games).  With Michal Kempny on the shelf for much, if not all of the upcoming regular season due to an Achilles tendon injury, it is not clear how successful the Caps can be with a third of their defense on any given night posing little threat in the offensive zone. 

There are other ways to contribute – Jensen did average more than two minutes per game killing penalties last season (2:22, fourth most among defensemen), as did Dillon in his short stint with the Caps to end the season (2:40 in ten games, third among defensemen) – but this could be an issue for the Caps.

Both players represent substantial investments by the club.  Jensen was signed to a four-year/$10 million contract in February 2019; Jensen was signed to a four-year/$15.6 million deal last October.  Both are 30 years old, Jensen the older by less than two months.  If there is an odd-man out here, it would appear to be Jensen, a player who did not capture lightning in a bottle in the same way Michal Kempny did when he was obtained late in the 2017-2018 season, and a player with a contract that might be more attractive to other teams.  But Kempny’s absence upsets the apple cart here.  The Caps have assembled a cast of defensemen auditioning for third pair work this season, and Jensen, who is not among the recent acquisitions, is part of the third pair casting call.

In the end…

The scouting report at TSN.ca on Nick Jensen reads as follows:

• Assets: Is a solid puck-moving defenseman with outstanding speed and good defensive instincts. Can produce decent offensive totals at lower levels, too.
• Flaws: Doesn't have ideal size and strength for the National Hockey League game. Therefore, he can struggle when defending much bigger forwards.
• Career potential: Speedy, puck-moving defenseman.

If you read between the lines through a lens with a cynical tint, you can see the holes – not likely to produce offense at higher levels (the NHL), not very physical, might struggle with more physical players in his own end.  He is not without skills, but one wonders if what we have seen over his season-plus in Washington is what he is.  If he has an “inner power” that merely awaits discovery, now would be the good time to discover it.

Projection: 48 games, 2-6-8, plus-1

Photo: Al Bello/Getty Images

Washington Capitals 2020-2021 Previews -- Defensemen: Brenden Dillon

Brenden Dillon

“We convince by our presence.”
-- Walt Whitman

 

If one was playing word association and said “Brenden Dillion,” the first response might not be “presence,” but perhaps it should be.  And presence takes more than one form to his game.  Consider that since his first full NHL season in 2012-2013, he has missed a total of only 12 games over eight seasons.  Half of those came in the 2015-2016 season with the San Jose Sharks, the result of an upper-body injury.  Another of the missed games was due to suspension in December 2017, when he slashed then Capitals defenseman Madison Bowey’s wrist in the last ten seconds of a 4-1 Capitals win in Washington.

Which brings up another aspect of Dillion’s “presence.”  Over those eight full seasons in which he has played, Dillon ranks fifth among all defensemen in credited hits (1,376) and ranks 17^th among 186 defensemen appearing in at least 250 games over that span in hits-per-60 minutes (7.44).  He also ranks fifth among defensemen over those eight seasons in penalty minutes (574), fourth in penalties taken (217), and fifth in major penalties taken (28).

Last season, no defenseman took more penalties (38) or drew more penalty minutes (104) than did Dillon.  Only Erik Gudbranson drew more penalty minutes per game (1:51) than Dillion (1:30) among defensemen appearing in at least 25 games.  And, Dillon finished fourth in the league among defensemen in credited hits (194) and 16^th in hits-per-60 minutes (8.66; minimum: 25 games).

Odd Dillon Fact… Brenden Dillon has an odd Capitals connection.  He is a graduate of the Seattle Thunderbirds franchise in Canadian junior hockey, a club whose alumni also include former Capitals Shawn Chambers, Ben Clymer, Brooks Laich, Garret Stroshein, and Brendan Witt.

Odd Dillon Fact II… When Dillon was a rookie with the Dallas Stars in 2012-2013, he finished tenth in the Calder Trophy voting for rookie of the year.  He finished ahead of such players as Dougie Hamilton (11^th), Vladimir Tarasenko (12^th), and Robin Lehner (13^th).  Of note, recent acquisition Justin Schultz finished seventh in that year’s voting for the Calder.

Fearless’ Take…

Brenden Dillon seems to be something of a throwback defenseman of the sort frequently employed in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s, a physical defenseman whose primary, if not only responsibility was policing his own end of the ice.  However, his game is not entirely unrefined.  Over his eight full seasons in the NHL, Dillon ranks 34^th among 186 defensemen appearing in at least 250 games in his personal shot attempts-for at 5-5on-5 percentage (52.0).  In a bit of an odd twist, his being on ice for 9,457 shot attempts-for I 597 games resembles John Carlson’s 9,319 shot attempts-for at fives while on ice in 571 games over that span.

Cheerless’ Take…

It is one thing to be a defensive defenseman with little to show on the offensive side of the ledger, but over the last eight seasons, among 55 defensemen appearing in at least 500 games, only Roman Polak averaged fewer points per game (0.16) than did Dillon (0.19).  He has only ten regular season games with the Caps, but he is still looking for his first point.

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021:

• 600 career games played (he currently has 598)
• 100 career assists (92)
• 600 career penalty minutes (574)

The Big Question… Is Brenden Dillon too much of an “old school” defenseman for the way the game is played now?

It is too early to arrive at any conclusions about whether Brenden Dillon’s game is compatible with the schemes and systems new head coach Peter Laviolette might employ.  It is not too soon to wonder, though, if a rock-solid defensive defenseman who poses no threat in the offensive end of the ice, a species of great value circa: 2000 can be a valuable commodity for the Caps in a more general sense.

The Caps certainly saw something in his game to merit a four-year contract extension at $3.9 million per year.  That is an odd area of the salary chart.  There are 34 defensemen with salary cap hits from $35. To $4.5 million (source: capfriendly.com), and it is a mix of offensive and defensive defensemen, overachievers and underachievers.  What is also represents, though, is a certain age cohort; 23 of the 34 defensemen range in age from 26-30 (Dillon is 29), suggesting a group in its chronological prime, but with such variety in profile and performance that it is hard to predict which among them will have value as they enter their 30’s.  In Dillon’s case, is he a player who provides a “change of pace” from others on his defense cohort, or is he a bit out of place in this mix?

In the end…

Brenden Dillon is, without question, a talented defenseman for his profile, a physical defender who plays with an edge, who will prevent players taking liberties with teammates and who will prohibit opponents from being too comfortable in open ice and along the boards.  He will not impress anyone with his offense (22 points is his career high, in 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 with San Jose), but there are others on the Caps blue line who can pitch in on that score.

Defensive defensemen are notoriously difficult to evaluate, at least for the casual observer.  The data measures tend to focus more on offensive contributions (even those measure that look at shot attempts have a large such component).  The best that might be said for defensemen such as Dillon is that nothing happens when they are on the ice – teams don’t get offensive chances, they don’t get to set up as comfortably as they would like, they don’t score.  If it can be said often that little happened with Brenden Dillon on the ice, even with his occasional visit outside the rules, it might be the best thing that could be said about his contributions.  And that is a good thing.

Projection: 54 games, 2-3-5, plus-2

Photo: Getty Images

Washington Capitals 2020-2021 Previews -- Defensemen: Zdeno Chara

Zdeno Chara

“Do not go gentle into that good night,
Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.”
-- Dylan Thomas

Bet you didn’t see that coming.  Who would have thought Zdeno Chara would be wearing Capitals red, white, and blue this season?  Yes, his career is in its final act.  Yes, his production has diminished steadily over the last half-dozen seasons.  Yes, the Boston Bruins were going younger and did not appear to have a place for their long-time captain.  But Caps fans might have looked at Chara and the story of where he would or would not go as a momentary distraction from getting ready to root for their own team.  Few of those fans might have thought, “hmm, Chara as a Capital.”

But let us look at this with clear eyes.  The 2020-2021 version of Chara is still an intimidating physical presence, but he is not the 2010-2011 Chara who skated to a Stanley Cup with Boston.  For the record, he was 14-30-44 and a league-leading plus-33 for the Bruins in that Stanley Cup season.  If he posts half the goals, assists, and points for the Caps on an 82-game basis that he did in 2010-2011, folks would be right to be thankful and call it a day.

Truth is, he is not likely to get those half-loaves of production.  He was 5-9-14 in each of the past two seasons in Boston, has had one double-digit goal scoring season in the last six (10 in 75 games in 2016-107), and has more than 30 points once in the last six seasons (37 in 2015-2016).  And while his plus-minus rating has been impressive, increasing over the last five seasons (an aggregate of plus-100, second-best in the league to Victor Hedman’s plus-107), he played for a solid, deep, and talented team in the Bruins, too, which could have done much to explain his rating.

Odd Chara Fact… Most fans might have known this, or at least suspected it, but Zdeno Chara is the tallest player in league history (6’9”).

Odd Chara Fact II… It would surprise few that Chara is a top-five scorer among defensemen in Bruins history (481 points, third behind Ray Bourque (1,506) and Bobby Orr (888)), but it might surprise more than a few that 15 years since his last season with the Ottawa Senators, he remains the fourth-leading point getter among defensemen in Ottawa history (146 points).

Odd Chara Fact III… He might not score goals as often as he did earlier in his career, but over the last three seasons, seven of his 17 goals scored were game-winners.

Fearless’ Take…

With as much churn as there has been in the Caps’ defense going into this season, and with the return of Michal Kempny on an uncertain schedule, Zdeno Chara’s presence in Washington might have little to do with numbers in a direct way.  In its own fashion, Chara arriving in Washington could serve to stabilize the pairs and calm an uncertain situation (especially given the short calendar) that Kempny’s arrival did in Washington when he arrived late in the 2017-2018 season.  That worked out well; hopefully things will end in same way.

Cheerless’ Take…

True, numbers aren’t everything, cuz, but boy his have kind of fallen off a cliff the last few seasons.  Five goals last season and the season before?  He didn’t have that few since 2000-2001, when he was with the (hold on, let me check…) the Islanders, when he had two goals in 82 games.  Nine assists last season?  Yup, you’d have to go back to that 2000-2001 season to find one when he had fewer (seven).  And his ice time last year (22:01 per game) was the lowest it has been since 1998-1999 (18:54 in 59 games with the Islanders).  Even if he gets third pair minutes with the Caps, has his game deteriorated too much?

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021:

• 1,600 career games played (he currently has 1,53)
• 2,000 career penalty minutes (1,956)
• Needs 12 games played to pass Nicklas Lidstrom (1,564) for fifth-place all time
• Needs nine minor penalties to pass Paul Coffey (676) for tenth-place all time

The Big Question… Just how much can Zdeno Chara have left at age 43?

Only four defensemen in NHL history have played in the league having passed their 43^rd birthday – Chris Chelios (five season), Tim Horton (two seasons), Doug Harvey, and Lester Patrick (who played only one game at that age).  It argues for tempering expectations when it comes to Zdeno Chara as a Capital.  He is a surefire hall of famer, but that is not going to be the player the Capitals will be sending out on the ice.  Which is not to say he has nothing left in the tank.  Chara is legendary for keeping himself in peak physical condition.  And a player with more than 1,700 regular and postseason games in his career has filed away a lot of information and experience that will enable him to deal with any conceivable situation on the ice.

Chara’s value might be more difficult to quantify than most.  It is not likely he will post impressive numbers, but his tank of experience and example are registering something close to “full.”  How this can be leveraged by the coaching staff will be one of the things to watch with Zdeno Chara this season.

In the end…

Babe Ruth is forever remembered as a New York Yankee, not as a Boston Brave.  Joe Montana will always wear the San Francisco 49er jersey in fans’ minds, not that of the Kansas City Chiefs.  And Washington fans have their own parallel – Michael Jordan is a Chicago Bull, not a Washington Wizard.  Zdeno Chara is not quite of the stature in hockey that the other three are in their respective sports, but still, he will be remembered as a Boston Bruin far longer than he might be as a Washington Capital.

The Capitals have, however, had reasonably good recent success with players destined for the hall of fame who made Washington a late stop in their NHL journey.  Adam Oates, who came to Washington at age 34, comes to mind.  In six seasons with the Caps, he posted 363 points in 387 games.  Sergei Fedorov is another member of that club, a player who arrived in Washington at age 38 and put up 46 points in 70 games in two seasons to close his career.  Whether Zdeno Chara can have similar success in Washington will go a long way to determining just how deep the Caps can go in pursuit of another Stanley Cup.

Projection: 50 games, 4-14-18, plus-2

Photo: Geoff Burke/US Presswire