The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 19: Capitals at Kraken: November 21

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals will make their first trip to Seattle to face the Kraken in a Sunday evening contest.  It will be the second back-to-back set of games for the Caps on this trip, having split the first B2B with an overtime loss to the Anaheim Ducks and a win over the Los Angeles Kings.  The Caps will be heading up the coast following their Saturday night contest with the San Jose Sharks.

For those who might have hoped for an inaugural season for the Kraken that resembled that of the Vegas Golden Knights in 2017-2018, those hopes are not likely to come to fruition.  The Kraken go into their matchup with the Caps on a six-game losing streak (the only winless team since November 6^th when the losing streak started) overall and a four-game losing streak on home ice. 

Scoring has been more middle-of-the road than poor during the streak, the Kraken tied for 15^th with Edmonton in scoring offense during that streak (2.83 goals per game), but the scoring has been top-heavy.  Three players combine for 10 of the Kraken’s 17 goals in the streak – Jordan Eberle (four), Yanni Gourde (three), and Jared McCann (three).  The trio has been uncommonly efficient in shooting, all of them with shooting percentages over 20 percent in the streak.  McCann leads the group in shooting percentage (37.5 percent) with three goals on eight shots in four games played during the losing streak.  McCann, who struggled early in his career in shooting efficiency (6.5 percent over his first three seasons), has ramped up that efficiency in the last four seasons (12.8 percent, including a career high 27.3 percent to date this season).  It has enabled him to average half a goal per game over the 12 games in which he has played so far, much improved over his previous best, 33.3 percent with Pittsburgh last season. But that scoring had come at a price.  McCann has been on ice for three even strength goals in this stretch, but he has been on ice for seven even strength goals against, contributing to his minus-5 rating in the four games in which he played.  McCann is 3-6-9, plus-2, in 15 career games against the Caps.

In addition to his three goals in the six-game skid, Gourde is one of only three players with a plus rating, his plus-1 equaling that of Riley Sheahan and Mx McCormick.  Gourde has had an up and down time of it in his offensive production.  In 2017-2018 he had 25 goals for the Tampa Bay Lightning, following that up with a 22-goal season in 2018-2019.  He fell off to ten goals in 70 games in 2019-2020, but rebounded to 17 goals in 56 games last season.  He is also an efficient shooter, having shot at least 12.5 percent (his current shooting percentage) in five of his last six seasons.  What Gourde has not yet done is improve on his timeliness in goal scoring.  Much of that is a product of moving from a Stanley Cup champion to an expansion team, but coming into this season 20 of his 80 goals were game-winners.  He is the only player in the league over the 2016-2017 through 2020-2021 seasons to record 80 or fewer goals overall and have 20 or more be game-winners.  Gourde is 1-3-4, minus-2, in 11 career games against Washington.

Eberle, the third member of the multi-goal trio over Seattle’s losing streak, is the overall leader in goal scoring for the Kraken to date (nine).  That production translates into his career-best to date goals per game (0.52), surpassing his full-season career high, recorded ten years ago with Edmonton (0.44).  It is quite a jump from his goal scoring rate over his four seasons with the New York Islanders (0.28).  Eberle had a hat trick in the Kraken’s last win, in a 5-2 win over Buffalo on November 4^th.  It is part of a stretch in which Eberle has scored nine goals in 11 games.  He has points in nine of those 11 games and is on a seven-game points streak going into Sunday’s game against the Caps.  But again, his scoring comes at a price.  Eberle has been on ice for 13 even strength goals so far this season, but he has been on ice for 23 even strength goals against, tied with Jaden Schwartz for most on the team.  Of 775 skaters to dress in games through Friday’s games, he is one of ten skaters with a minus-10 goal differential or worse at evens.  Eberle is 5-7-12, minus-7, in 29 career games against the Capitals.

1.  The Caps could face Marcus Johansson for the Kraken, who is now on his sixth NHL team in 12 NHL seasons.  Johansson, who dressed for 501 games in seven seasons with the Caps, has appeared in only 189 games over the last five seasons.

2.  One thing the Kraken have done well is limit shots.  The 25.9 shot per game allowed are fewest in the league.  But teams are shooting 15.0 percent against Seattle, the highest percentage by opponents in the league.

3.  No team has allowed more goals in the first period than Seattle (20, tied with Arizona), and no team has allowed more third period goals than Seattle (24).

4.  Seattle has allowed the most goals in the league at 5-on-5 (48).

5.  The next penalty taken by the Kraken will be their 200^th of the season, second in the league to Arizona (243).

1.  No team in the league has taken fewer penalties per 60 minutes than the Capitals (3.01); they are third-best in net penalties per 60 minutes (plus-0.70).

2.  The Caps are tied for first in goals scored at even strength at 5-on-5 on the road (25, with Calgary).

3.  Washington is the only team in the league that has not scored a goal on the road at 5-on-4.

4.  The Caps are second in the league in first period goals scored on the road (10; Calgary: 16); they are tied with Ottawa and Vegas for second-fewest third period goals allowed on the road (four).

5.  In eight road games so far, the Caps have the third-best points percentage in the league (.750/5-1-2).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Seattle: Philipp Grubauer

If Philipp Grubauer gets the nod in goal on Sunday, the Caps will be facing one of the most effective and efficient goalies in Capitals history.  Of 34 goalies to dress for at least 15 games in team history, Grubauer ranks first in save percentage (.923), first in save percentage in games started (.921), first in goals against average (2.29), tied for eighth in shutouts (six), first in even strength save percentage (.931, since 1997-1998, when the league started capturing this statistic), first in shorthanded save percentage (.892), sixth in power play save percentage (.895).

In Seattle, though, he is struggling with a 4-8-1, 3.27, .875 record.  He has allowed three of more goals nine times in 14 appearances and five goals in a game three times, including five in just 28:49 of work in a 6-1 loss to Philadelphia on October 18^th.  Of 49 goalies to have logged 250 or more minutes, Grubauer ranks 47^th in save percentage (.875), 42^nd in goals against average (3.27); of 50 goalies to appear in at least five games, Grubauer ranks dead last in even strength save percentage (.872).  That record has deteriorated recently, Grubauer going 0-4-0, 4.33, .830, in his last five games (one no-decision). Grubauer is 1-1-1, 3.04, .909 in three career appearances against Washington.

Washington: Daniel Sprong

The last five seasons of Daniel Sprong’s six-year NHL career have been a bit strange.  In 2017-2018 he shot 9.1 percent, following that up with shooting percentages of 11.2, 5.9, 17.6 last season, and 8.1 percent to date this season.  The odd part about his season to date is that he recorded four or more shots in five of the 16 games he played so far, but he does not have a goal in any of them.  It explains, in part, his having only three goals in those 16 games, a 15-goal pace, after a season in which he posted 13 goals in 42 games, a 25-goal pace.  And ice time seems not to be much of a factor in the drought.  He has two of his three goals in seven games in which he logged less than 12 minutes, but only one in four games in which he logged at least 15 minutes.  What adds to the strangeness is the fact that so far he is averaging more than a minute per game this season (12:42) than he did last season (11:40), and his shifts per game are slightly higher (15.6 to 15.3).  His is the sort of secondary scoring that matters, as it does for many players.  The Caps were 8-3-1 in the 12 games in which he scored goals last season and are 2-0-1 in the three games in which he had goals so far this season.  Like all of the Caps, this will be Sprong’s first appearance against the Kraken.

In the end…

The bloom is not yet off the rose in Seattle, but the Kraken have given fans little to cheer about lately.  This might be the let down after the high of a team embarking on their first journey through the NHL.  In any case, this is a team the Caps need to deal with quickly and emphatically.  Teams on losing streaks that get off to good starts or are allowed to hang around find ways to end that losing streak, and for this to be a successful trip for the Caps, they need to crack the Kraken.

Capitals 5 - Kraken 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 18: Capitals at Sharks: November 20

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals make the turn on their four-game western road trip with their third game on the journey, facing the San Jose Sharks on Saturday at SAP Center.  The Caps enter the game on a six-game points streak (5-0-1), while the Sharks are 2-4-1 in their last seven contests and losers of their last two games on home ice (0-1-1).

San Jose is a middle-of-the-road offensive club, led by Timo Meier with 15 points (6-9-15).  In his first three seasons with the Sharks, Meier looked to be on a path to justify his ninth-overall selection by the Sharks in the 2015 Entry Draft, posting a scoring line of 54-54-108, plus-12, in 193 games, capped with a career year in 2018-2019 (78 games, 30-36-66, plus-9.  His next two seasons, played in abbreviated schedules, were significant drop-offs – 22-27-49, minus-22, in 70 games, followed by a 12-19-31, minus-7, last season in 54 games.  This season, though, as been a rebound season for Meier so far, 6-9-15, plus-7, despite a five-game absence under COVID protocol that has limited to 11 games of the 16 played to date by the Sharks. Meier has points in ten of the games in which he has played thus far, blanked only in a 4-0 loss to Montreal on October 28^th.  His two power play goals to date ties hm for the team lead with Kevin LeBlanc, and his two game-winners tie him with Jonathan Dahlen for the team lead in that category.  Meier is 1-4-5, even, in six career games against the Caps.

Dahlen is an interesting player.  He is one of ten rookie skaters to dress for the Sharks this season and leads the group in scoring (7-2-9).  Those seven goals are tied for the team lead with Tomas Hertl and tied for the lead among all rookies in the league.  His shooting percentage of 22.6 is second among all Sharks skaters and leads all NHL rookies having recorded at least ten shots on goal.  If the name is familiar, it should be.  He is the son of former Capital Ulf Dahlen, who played in 14 seasons, three of them with the Caps.  Dahlen’s scoring has dropped off a bit since going 6-2-8, plus-5, in his first 11 games.  He had a three-game streak without a point (his longest of the season) before snapping it with a goal in his last game, the only Sharks goal in a 4-1 loss to St. Louis on Thursday.  This will be his first appearance against the Caps.

Goaltending has been hit and miss for the Sharks.  The “hit” is the performance of James Reimer.  His win-loss record of 4-3-1 is modest, but his underlying numbers – 1.98 goals against average and .938 save percentage – are not.  Reimer has danced on the dividing line between starter and back-up over the course of his career, his 21,424 career minutes ranking 16^th among 113 active goaltenders.  He has never dressed for as many as 50 games in a season, but he has not dressed for fewer than 30 games in a non-abbreviated season.  While his numbers this year sparkle – career bests in goals against average and save percentage – he has split 16 starts with Adin Hill (4-4-0, 3.11, .894, one shutout).  Reimer has cooled off of late but still putting up good underlying numbers, going 1-2-1, 2.46, .926 in his last four appearances.

1.  San Jose is stingy in allowing third period goals, tied for fourth-fewest goals allowed (12, with Florida).

2.  The Sharks have allowed the second-most shorthanded goals per game, 0.19 (second to Los Angeles: 0.25).

3.  San Jose is tied for the fourth-worst goal differential on power plays (plus-6).

4.  The Sharks have the second-best goal differential on penalty kills (minus-3, second to Colorado at minus-2).

5. It is all or nothing for the Sharks when leading or trailing after two periods – 6-0-0 when leading after 40 minutes, 0-7-0 when trailing.

1.  Alex Ovechkin is the all-time leading scorer against the Sharks 12-8-20.  On the other hand, he is tied for having the worst plus-minus all-time against the Sharks (minus-9, tied with Jason Chimera).

2.  The Caps are the only team in the league that is a top-five scoring team in each of the three regulation periods – first period: 17 (tied for fourth in the league); second period: 21 (tied for first); third period: 20 (tied for fifth).

3.  Seventeen games in, and the Caps are still the only team in the league without a major penalty.

4.  The Caps remain the only team in the league with a perfect record in games decided by three or more goals (4-0). They are also perfect in two-goal games (5-0), but they rank 30^th in winning percentage in one-goal games (.125/1-2-5).

5.  Washington is second only to Florida in goals scored at 5-on-5 (43 to 45 for Florida).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

San Jose: Brent Burns

The miles are starting to show on defenseman Brent Burns.  Now 36 years old and in his 18^th NHL season, his numbers have been dropping since he finished second in Norris Trophy voting in 2018-2019 – his third Norris finalist season in four years (he won the trophy in 2016-2017) – with a 16-67-83, plus-13 scoring line.  In the two seasons that followed he was 12-33-45, minus-22, in 70 games two years ago and 7-22-29, minus-12, in 56 games last season.  So far this season he is 1-11-12, minus-1, in 16 games.  He is highly ranked in the Sharks’ all-time statistical categories for defensemen – second in games played (732 to Marc-Edouard Vlasic’s 1,096), first in goals (163), first in assists (389), first in points (552), sixth in penalty minutes (408), first in points per game (0.75; minimum: 25 games), first in power play goals (51), first in power play points (190), first in overtime goals (10), first in game-winning goals (27). Ninth in shooting percentage (6.6 percent; minimum: 25 games), third in credited hits (866), second in blocked shots (1,049), and first in takeaways (490).  He is 6-12-18, even, in 20 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Trevor van Riemsdyk

Some players announce their presence with flashy numbers, other toil effectively, but in anonymity.  The latter might describe defenseman Trevor van Rimesdyk’s season to date for the Caps.  He is the only one of six defensemen to dress for the Caps without a goal, but he does have six assists, second among defensemen to John Carlson (14).  He is a plus-6, the third-best rating among defensemen.  He is not a big hitter (last of the six defensemen with seven), but he is tied for the lead among blueliners in blocked shot (27, with Martin Fehervary).  His 1.19 takeaways per 60 minutes is second among the group (John Carlson: 1.51).  His on-ice shot differential at 5-on-5 of plus-33 leads the team, and his being on ice for 212 shot attempts at fives is fewest among the defensemen.  His 2:15 in shorthanded ice time per game ranks second (Jensen: 2:21).  In 17 games played to date, he was a minus player only twice.  Van Riemsdyk is 0-3-3, plus-7, in 10 career games against the Sharks.

In the end…

San Jose has struggled at times on offense this season, including on home ice where they scored 12 goals in their last five games at SAP Center.  On defense, they have been strong where the Caps have been weak, posting a league-best 94.1 percent penalty kill on home ice, while the Caps are 31^st in road power play (5.9 percent).  If the Caps can solve the Sharks’ penalty kill, it should be a successful night.

Capitals 3 - Sharks 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 17: Capitals at Kings: November 17

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals close the southern California leg of their four-game road trip with a visit to STAPLES Center and the Los Angeles Kings on Wednesday night.  The Kings are among the hottest teams in the league, taking an eight-game points streak (7-0-1) into their contest with the Caps.

The Kings have not been an especially frisk team on offense to date, averaging 2.73 goals per game, which ranks in the bottom third in the league.  But the struggles of Mikey Anderson have been rough.  The third-year defenseman is one of five players in the league (a group that includes former Capital Jay Beagle) to appear in 15 or more games without recording a point.  What Anderson has that the other four do not is a plus rating (plus-9).  Anderson, a fourth round pick (103^rd overall) in the 2017 Entry Draft, is not an offensive defenseman by any means, with a career scoring line of 2-10-12, plus-13, in 75 career games, but he was good enough overall last season to be one of 20 rookies to earn votes for the Calder Trophy for top rookie.  Odd Anderson fact… over his first 13 games he had a total of nine shots on goal, and then he had six in a 2-0 win over Ottawa on November 11^th.  Anderson has never faced the Caps.

When the team for which you root has not faced a team in almost two years, chances are you lose touch with that opponent’s roster and who the productive players are.  With respect to the Kings, that brings us to Alex Iafallo.  Now in his fifth season with the Kings, he is turning into a productive goal scorer.  His goals per game increased in each of his first four seasons, last year reaching a high of 0.24 goals per game last season, a 19-goal pace.  He is far ahead of that pace this season with six goals in 15 games, a 33-goal pace.  Those six goals came in a nine-game stretch from October 23^rd through November 9^th and half of them coming at the expense of the Montreal Canadiens.  He has been a good example of the value of secondary scoring, the Kings going 7-2-0 in games in which he registered at least one point, 1-3-2 in games in which he was held off the score sheet.  In the last of those nine games in which he recorded six goals, he registered eight shots on goal and a goal against the Canadiens in a 3-2 win on November 9^th.  Oddly enough, in his next game he failed to record a shot on goal, the first and only game so far this season in which he did not record a shot on goal.  Iafallo is without a point in his last two contest.  He is 1-0-1, minus-3, in six career games against Washington.

Jonathan Quick is the all-time franchise leader among goalies in games (674), wins (340), fourth in goals against average (2.40; minimum: 50 games), third in save percentage (.913), and first in shutouts (55).  But before this season he was in what amounted to a three-year slump – 43-54-13, 3.05, .896, with five shutouts.  But this season he has found his game once more, going 4-3-1, 1.98 (sixth in the league; minimum: 250 minutes), .935 (sixth), with one shutout.  He goes into this game on a hot streak.  After losing his first four decisions this season (0-3-1), he is on a four-game winning streak with a 1.23 goals against average and a .961 save percentage.  His most recent game was a 34-save shutout of the Ottawa Senators on Veterans Day. 

But while Quick is the past and the present, what of the future?  Cal Petersen, who just turned 27 years old and is in his fourth year with the Kings, is 4-2-1, 2.84, .902 in seven games this season.  Unfortunately for Petersen and the Kings, his save percentage is heading in the wrong direction -- .924 in 11 games in his first season, followed by seasons of .922 in eight games and .911 in 35 games last year. Petersen is on a streak of his own, going 3-0-1 over his last four appearances with a 2.21 goals against average and a .917 save percentage.  Quick is 9-5-0, 2.55, .907 in 14 career appearances against the Caps, while Petersen has not yet faced the Caps in his career.

1.  Los Angeles outscored opponents, 25-14 over their eight-game points streak.  Five of the games were one-goal decisions in which the Kings were 4-0-1.

2.  Only Arizona has fewer first period goals scored so far (six) than the Kings (eight).

3.  On the other hand, only four teams have allowed fewer first period goals than Los Angeles (eight).

4.  Only four teams have a worse winning percentage when scoring first in games than the Kings (3-3-1/.429).

5.  Only three teams have a better winning percentage when trailing first than Los Angeles (5-2-1/.625).

1.  In the nine days since the Caps embarked on the four game winning streak they took into Anaheim on Tuesday night, they rank fourth in scoring offense in that span (4.25 goals per game).

2.  The Caps are one of five teams with a perfect penalty kill in that spa, (11-for-11), and their net penalty kill (109.1) is second-best in the league, owing to the addition of a shorthanded goal scored.

3.  In their four-game winning streak, only one team (Montreal) has fewer takeaways per 60 minutes than the Capitals (4.25).

4.  In the four-game streak, the Caps have averaged 2.75 power play chances per game and have had 2.75 shorthanded situations per game.

5.  The Caps have goals from 11 different skaters in their four-game winning streak and points from 16 of 19 skaters.  

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Los Angeles: Anze Kopitar

There are few Los Angeles Kings franchise records Anze Kopitar will not own when he decides to hang up his skates or leaves the Kings (he is under contract through the 2023-2024 season).  He ranks second in games played (1,144, 103 behind leader and current teammate Dustin Brown), fourth in goals (354, 203 behind leader Luc Robitaille…count that one as a franchise-best he is unlikely to reach), third in assists (662, 95 short of Marcel Dionne), fourth in points (1,016, 291 behind Dionne), fifth in power play goals (101, 109 behind Robitaille), third in power play points (364, 97 behind Dionne), tied for second in overtime goals (nine, two behind Jeff Carter), third in game-winning goals (58, 14 behind Robitaille), first in faceoff winning percentage (52.6 percent; minimum: 100 faceoffs taken), first in blocked shots among forwards (760), first in takeaways (666).  Kopitar is not slowing down.  He is currently the team leader in goals (eight), assists (eight), and points this season (16).  His three power play goals and six power play points lead the team.  His 21:18 in ice time per game leads all forwards, as do his 20 blocked shots.  And, he is 2-5-7 in Los Angeles’ eight game points streak.  Kopitar is 9-8-17, plus-1, in 20 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin is the 22^nd oldest skater to have played in the league this season.  That is 744 skaters who are younger than Ovechkin to have dressed this season, and few, if any of them are having the kind of season Ovechkin is – second in goals (12), tied for fifth in assists (14), third in points (26), second in plus-minus rating (plus-14), fourth in points per game (1.73), second in even strength goals (nine), first in shots on goal (65), first in points per 60 minutes (4.46; minimum: ten games).  He has points in 13 of 15 games (pending results in Anaheim on Tuesday night), he has nine multi-point games (he had only 11 all of last year), he has five multi-assist games so far this season (three all of last year and one the year before that).  In the Caps current four-game winning streak going into their game in Anaheim, Ovechkin has been the straw to stir the drink.  In those four games he is 2-6-8, plus-6, averaging 21:43 per game in ice time, and oddly enough, had his only game without a shot on goal this season, but he did manage an assist in that 2-0 win over Detroit on Veterans Day. 

It is, in some respects a career year in the making, which is saying something.  His 2.2 goals per 60 minutes is a career high, as are his 2.6 assists per 60 minutes and 4.8 points per 60 minutes.  His 0.80 goals per game is a career high, as are his 0.93 assists per game and 1.73 points per game (he is on a 142-point pace).  He seems a good bet to finish the season with 100 points for the first time since 2009-2010 (109 points) and finish with the fifth 100-point season of his career.  Against the Kings, he is 11-10-21, minus-2, in 21 career games.

In the end… 

Los Angeles resembles their Stanley Cup winning teams of a decade ago.  They will not overwhelm with offense, but they will be solid in the defensive end and generally get good goaltending.  They are, however, different on special teams, where their present penalty kill is weak (74.4 percent/27^th in the league), and their power play is unimpressive (18.2 percent/18^th).  If the Capitals can shake off their own power play problems, they could make this a successful night.

Capitals 4 Kings 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 16: Capitals at Ducks: November 16

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Fresh off their 6-1 demolition of the Pittsburgh Penguins at Capital One Arena on Sunday night, the Washington Capitals head back to the road for a four-game western swing that starts with a contest against the Anaheim Ducks at Honda Center on Tuesday night.

After a three-game losing streak, the Caps head to the road with a four-game winning streak in their carry-on luggage.  It is the second-longest streak in the league through Sunday’s games and the Caps’ longest of the season to date.  The longest winning streak in the league belongs to the Caps’ opponent on Tuesday, the Anaheim Ducks, winners of seven straight after their 5-1 win over the Vancouver Canucks on Sunday.

The Ducks have used their winning streak to crawl within a point of the Pacific Division-leading Edmonton Oilers and are tied for fifth in the league in standings points earned (21).  Fifteen of 22 skaters have goals on the Ducks’ seven-game winning streak, and 21 of those 22 skaters have posted at least one point in this streak.  Troy Terry leads the Ducks with seven goals on their win streak and is tied for the team lead in points (11).  With those seven goals, Terry has already set a career high for goals in a season (11).  A fifth-round pick (148^th overall) in the 2015 Entry Draft, Terry has far outperformed his draft position, at least in goals scored, where he ranks tied for 34^th in goals in his draft class to date (26).  Terry had a bit of a slow start lighting the red lamp this season, going his first three games without a goal.  But since then he has 11 goals in 12 games and has at least one goal in nine of those 12 games. Terry has four goals in his last six home games (five in all) and points in each of his last seven home games (5-3-8).  He is 0-1-1, plus-2, in two career games against the Caps.

As one might expect for a team on a run, the defense has made its contributions.  Six of the seven defensemen to dress over this seven-game win streak have points (Simon Benoit being the exception in the four games he played).  Cam Fowler is the blue line points leader during the streak (1-6-7) and is second overall in points (2-10-12) for the season to date.  Fowler will not turn 30 until the first week of December, but he is the grand old man in franchise history among defensemen.  He is the all-time franchise leader in games (751), goals (74), assists (262), points (336), second in power play goals (28), second in power play points (131), first in shorthanded goals (four), tied for second in overtime goals (four), first in game-winning goals (16), first in total minutes played (17,197), first in Gimmick shot attempts (nine), and first in Gimmick goals scored (three).  His career scoring is more the product of longevity than prolific production, but he does have eight-consecutive 20-point seasons and seems a good bet to make it nine in a row this season.  Fowler is 0-8-8, minus-6, in 15 career games against Washington. 

Goalie John Gibson, one of if not the best goaltender in Ducks history, was the subject of speculation as the regular season drew near.  That was when the Ducks were looked at as a team in a transition phase from a struggling franchise to a competitive one.  Well, the Ducks have been more than competitive this season, and Gibson has been a big part of that, going 8-2-2, 2.37, .924, with one shutout in 12 appearances.  He has six of the seven wins on the Ducks’ current streak, going 6-0-0, 1.65, .943, with one shutout.  Gibson, now in his ninth season in Anaheim, is third on the all time franchise list in games played (334), fourth in wins (156, but he seems likely to pass Guy Hebert (173) for second place before season’s end), seventh in goals against average (2.57; minimum: 1500 minutes), third in save percentage (.917), and third in shutouts (23).  It would seem he isn’t going anywhere soon.  Gibson is 1-3-2, 3.35, .896, against the Caps,  his lone win being a shutout, a 36-save gem in a 4-0 Ducks win on March 6, 2018.

1.  The Ducks have not been subtle about how they win games on this seven-game winning streak.  They bludgeon opponents with offense and suffocate them with defense.  They have outscored opponents, 30-11, over the seven-game streak, scoring four or more goals five times and holding opponents to one or no goals four times.

2.  Anaheim is a top-ten team in scoring in each period this season – 16 firt period goals (tied for fourth), 17 second period goals (tied for sixth), and tied for first in third period goals (22).

3.  Only Edmonton and Nashville have more wins when out-shot by opponents (seven and six, respectively) than Anaheim (five).

4.  You would think a team with as good a record as the Ducks would be adept at holding leads when scoring first. However, they are tied for 18^th in winning percentage when scoring first in games (6-3-1/.600).

5.  Ditto in one goal-games, but the Ducks are just 2-3-3 in one goal games, their .250 winning percentage tied for 25^th in the league.

1.  The Caps rank 30^th in the league in winning percentage in one-goal games (.143/1-2-4).

2.  At the other end, the Caps are one of two teams in the league with a winning percentage of 1.000 in games decided by three or more goals (4-0).

3.  The Capitals are tied for the league lead in shorthanded goals (three, with St. Louis and Colorado).

4.  No team has more wins than the Caps when leading after one period (seven, tied with Calgary).

5.  Only Florida and Calgary have more wins when scoring first in games (each with eight) than the Capitals (seven).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Anaheim: Ryan Getzlaf

Ryan Getzlaf seems to have found the Fountain of Youth in southern California.  Last season, he finished with 17 points in 48 games, a season in which he missed eight games to an assortment of upper and lower body injuries.  But this season, he shot out of the gate, matching last year’s point total in just 16 games.  His 1.06 points per game is his eighth season averaging more than point a game in his 17-year career.  Given his recent history, it is quite a start.  After going 15-58-73, plus 7, in 2016-2017, his goal totals slipped to 11, 14, 13, and five over the next four seasons (the last two in abbreviated schedules); his assists dipped to 50, 34, 29, and 12 last season.  His power play goals dropped to 13. 10, 6, and 1 over the next four seasons.  But for now, the player who among 764 skaters to dress this season is the 17^th oldest of the group and 11^th oldest among forwards, and who is the oldest skater on this year’s Ducks team by almost five years, is having a nice comeback start to the season.  Getzlaf is 8-20-28, plus-6, in 20 career games against Washington.

Washington: Dmitry Orlov

John Carlson gets the ink and the star turn, while Dmitry Orlov is the strong, silent sidekick. They do not play on the same pairing, but they are effective within their own skill sets on different pairs.  Orlov has been quietly climbing the rankings in a variety of categories in franchise history.  Earlier this season he passed Ken Klee and Mike Green to take over tenth place in games played by a defenseman in Caps history (currently 582).  If he stays healthy he will become the ninth defenseman to appear in 600 games for the Caps by the end of this calendar year.  Though he is more a two-way defenseman than the offensive defenseman Carlson is, Orlov ranks tenth among defensemen in goals on the all-time Caps list (47).  He is tenth in assists (162) and ninth in points (209).  His 12 game-winning goals ranks eighth among Caps defensemen all-time, and his two overtime goals are tied for second on that list.  

Since 1997-1998, when the league started keeping ice time statistics, Orlov ranks 15^th among 58 defensemen to appear in at least 25 games in average ice time (19:53).  Of 39 defensemen to have dressed for at least 25 games, when the league started capturing hits numbers, Orlov ranks 15^th in Caps history in hits per 60 minutes (4.67), and his hip checks have become a signature item in his repertoire.  He ranks second in that group in takeaways per 60 minutes (1.61), trailing only Nate Schmidt (1.64).  This season Orlov is off to a solid start, going 2-5-7, plus-11, in 15 games.  Both of his goals are game-winners, both on the road – one in a 4-1 win over New Jersey on October 21^st, the other in 1 2-0 win over Detroit on Veterans Day.  Orlov is 0-1-1, minus-4, in 12 career games against the Ducks.

In the end…

Since going 46-23-13 in 2016-2017, a .640 points percentage, eh Ducks have been in a downward spiral -- .616 the following season (44-25-13), .488 the next season (35-37-10), .472 in 2019-2020 (29-33-9), and .384 last season (17-30-9).  This year, things are different, the Ducks’ .656 points percentage (9-4-3) tied with Toronto for night place in the league and fifth in the Western Conference.  If the Caps treat the Ducks as if they were last year’s team, it could be a long night for the visitors.  Play them as a competitive squad, and the Caps could do a lot better.

Capitals 5 – Ducks 4

 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 15: Penguins at Capitals: November 14

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The rivalry is renewed.  Caps versus Penguins.  For the 237^th time, these teams will face off against one another in the regular season, the Caps with a 102-104-14 (16 ties) record against the foul fowl.  For the Caps it is a brief home respite interrupting a stretch of six road games.  Pittsburgh comes to Capital One Arena to play the back half of a road back-to-back set of games opening with a matchup in Ottawa against the Senators on Saturday night.  The Caps could be seeing Sidney Crosby, Brian Dumoulin, and head coach Mike Sullivan after they were cleared from COVID protocol.  

Getting Crosby back could be the shot in the arm the Penguins need.  After scoring 23 goals in their first five games, going 3-0-2, they scored only 13 goals in their last six games, going 2-2-2.  Kasperi Kapanen is the goals leader in the recent drought with three.  Kapanen, a 22^nd overall draft pick of the Penguins in 2014, took a roundabout path to his current position with the Pens.  He was traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs in July 2015 with a 2016 first round draft pick, a third round draft pick in 2016, Scott Harrington and Nick Spaling for a second round draft pick in 2016, Tyler Biggs, Tim Erixon and Phil Kessel.  He played for parts of five seasons with the Leafs, posting 41 goals and 90 points in 202 games.  After the 2019-2020 season, he was traded back to Pittsburgh with Pontus Aberg and Jesper Lindgren for a first round draft pick in 2020 , Filip Hallander, Evan Rodrigues and David Warsofsky. One scouting report on Kapanen sates, “owns a very good sniper's release, so goal-scoring is his strong suit. Skates very well and knows how to free himself from coverage to get open. Can even play the point on the power play, due to his great shot,” but he has only 14 goals in 52 games over two seasons with the Pens, a 22-goal pace over 82 games.  It is a decent goal scoring pace for a secondary scorer, but for someone with a “very good sniper’s release,” his production to date with Pittsburgh seems underwhelming. Kapanen is 5-5-10, plus-3, in 15 career games against Washington.

Three other Penguins are multiple goal scorers in their six-game slide. Jake Guentzel and Jeff Carter are not surprises on this short list, but Brock McGinn is an unexpected entry.  McGinn spent his first six NHL seasons with the Carolina Hurricanes, posting 51 goals in 345 games, a 12-goal pace over 82 games.  Last July, McGinn signed as a free agent with Pittsburgh, a four-year/$11 million deal.  He has a 3-3-6, plus-1, scoring line in 12 games and is the sort of secondary scorer whose secondary scoring matters.  Pittsburgh is 3-1-1 in the five games in which he has points, 2-3-2 in the games in which he was held off the points sheet.  His scoring has been almost rhythmic this season – points in his first four games, none in his next three, then points in two straight, and he goes into Saturday’s game without a point in his last three contests. McGinn is 1-0-1, minus-9, in 17 career games against the Caps.

The Penguins have really been decimated on defense, the team dressing nine defensemen in their recent six-game slump.  Only two – Mike Matheson and John Marino – dressed for all six games.  Marino is an interesting player.  He was a sixth-round (154^th overall) pick by the Edmonton Oilers in the 2015 Entry Draft, one of four defensemen the Oilers took in that draft (three of them have appeared in NHL games – Marino, Ethan Bear, and Caleb Jones -- none are still with the Oilers).  He then spent three years skating for Harvard University and bypassing any games in the AHL to take a spot on the Penguins roster in 2019-2020.  Now in his third season with the Pens, he is 10-35-45, plus-19, in 120 career games.  He is second overall among Penguin defensemen in points (six), trailing only Kris Letang (seven), tied with Letang among defensemen in shots on goal (19), second to Letang in credited hits (19 to Letang’s 31), and he is averaging 23:42 in ice time per game, second to Letang (27:38).  Marino is 0-4-4, plus-1, in ten career games against the Capitals.

1.  Going into their game against Ottawa on Saturday night, the Penguins have played in four consecutive extra time games, three of them going to the Gimmick.  The Pens split the four games, going 2-2, beating Philadelphia in overtime and Florida in the Gimmick, while dropping decisions to Minnesota and Chicago in the freestyle competition.

2.  Through Friday’s games, the Penguins had yet to win consecutive games this season.

3.  Each of Pittsburgh’s three wins in regulation were by margins of three goals of more.

4.  The Penguins are a “high event volume” team.  They lead the league in shots on goal per game (35.7); they allow the eighth-highest number of shots on goal (33.3).  The combined 69.0 shots per game, for and against, are most in the league.

5.  Only the New York Islanders have fewer penalty minutes (79) than Pittsburgh (80); their 2.91 penalties taken per 60 minutes are fewest in the league.

1.  The Caps are 28-26-13 in their series against Pittsburgh in the Ovechkin/Crosby era (since 2005-2006) and 14-14-6 at home.

2.  In the Ovechkin/Crosby era, both teams have scored 209 goals.

3.  Since 2005-2006, the Caps have outscored the Penguins, 44-23, in the third periods of games on home ice.

4.  In the Ovechkin/Crosby era, the Caps have never lost a game on home ice when leading after two periods (9-0-1), and they are 10-2-1 when leading after one period.

5.  Washington has not done well in close games on home ice against the Pens in recent years.  Since 205-2006, they are 5-8-6 in one goal games at home.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Pittsburgh: Tristan Jarry

Is Tristan Jarry the guy, or isn’t he?  With Marc-Andre Fluery and Matt Murray having hauled off their Stanley Cups to different teams, Jarry has become the number one netminder for the Penguins.  Overall, he has been very good, posting a 50-23-7, 2.55, .917 record with five shutouts over the past three seasons, including this one.  But dig a bit deeper, and there are issues about consistency.  In 2019-2020, he was 20-12-1, 2.42, .921, with three shutouts.  He followed that up with a fine 25-9-3 win-loss record in 2020-2021, but he also had a GAA of 2.75 and a save percentage of .909, hardly impressive numbers.  This season he is off to a good start – 5-2-3, 2.23, .929 in ten appearances through Friday.  And there is the matter of the postseason, which was a disaster for Jarry last spring – 2-4, 2.90, .894 in a six-game loss to the New York Islanders in which he allowed four or more goals in four of the six games and lost the last three contests in the series.  Jarry is 4-2-0, 2.49, .921, with one shutout in six career games against the Caps.

Washington: Conor Sheary

Conor Sheary is one of the hardest working players you will ever want to see.  Despite his slight build, by hockey standards – 5’9”/178 pounds – he is unafraid to work his way into difficult spaces on the ice to fish out a puck or make a play.  Those qualities, however, do not necessarily make him a good fit for the power play.  Sheary has averaged 2:31 per game in power play time this season, sixth on the team among forwards, and with Anthony Mantha out for the time being (Mantha ranks fifth with 2:34 per game), Sheary might be getting more work with the man advantage.  Consider that he logged no power play time in any of his first four games this season.  However, over his last eight games he logged at least four minutes four times, and only once did he record less than two minutes, that coming in the Caps’ most recent game, against Columbus, and he still skated all of the 1:35 in power play ice time the Caps had.  He does have a power play goal (one of six Caps with at least one) and two power play points (one of six forwards with at least one), but he seems a bit of an odd fit on the power play, essentially getting the minutes (35:09 in total power play minutes) that Nicklas Backstrom would have been getting.  Sheary, the former Penguin, is 6-2-8, plus-8, against his old team.

In the end…

Buckle up and strap on those helmets, it’s Capitals/Penguins.  Never a boring game, always with subplots (in this contest, the dueling injury lists and “The Return of The Sid”).  The Caps are 1-1-2 in their last four home games against Pittsburgh.  The lone win in those games for the Caps featured six third period goal, four of them by the Caps in a 5-2-win.  Things might not play out quite that way, but the Caps will take advantage of the only home cooking they will get until Thanksgiving Eve.

Capitals 5 – Penguins 3