Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 23

Week 23 was a very good week for the Washington Capitals, among the most satisfying of the season.  And, it solidified their hold on a playoff spot while inching closer to the New York Rangers for third place in the Metropolitan Division standings.

Record (3-0-0)

Week 23 was the first perfect week, record-wise, since week 12, when the Caps went 2-0-0, and the first perfect week with three or more games played since Week 5, when the Caps went 3-0-0.  It was an extremely satisfying week, the Caps opening the week with a win in the Gimmick against the New York Islanders and former coach Barry Trotz, a pasting of the Columbus Blue Jackets that all but ended the sliver of hope Columbus might have had of catching the Caps for a playoff spot, and a playoff-like come from behind win in another Gimmick over the Carolina Hurricanes in Raleigh, one of the most difficult cities for opponents to win in the NHL.  The week left the Caps just three points behind the New York Islanders for third place in the Metropolitan Division and five behind the Pittsburgh Penguins for second place.

Offense: 4.33 / game (season: 3.30 / 10th)

Even considering the seven goals the Caps hung on Columbus in a 7-2 win, it was a good week for the offense.  The 4.33 goals per game were tied for the third-best scoring offense for the week (with Winnipeg), trailing Edmonton (6.33) and Nashville (5.00).  The odd thing about the scoring offense rankings was that Columbus, who scored only twice in the loss to the Caps, still finished fifth in the league for the week in scoring offense (4.25 goals per game, tied with Vegas).

Eight different Caps recorded goals for the week, led by Alex Ovechkin and Anthony Mantha with three apiece.  John Carlson’s goal against Carolina in the last game of the week broke a ten-game drought in goal scoring.  Connor McMichael snapped a 12-game streak without a goal when he tallied against Columbus.  Axel Jonsson-Fjallby notched his first NHL goal when he scored against the Islanders.

Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov led the Caps in points with four apiece.  Mantha, Conor Sheary, and Nicklas Backstrom added three apiece.  In all, 15 Capital skaters recorded points.

Defense: 2.67 / game (season: 2.78 / 8th)

It was neither a good, nor a bad week for the Caps in allowing shots on goal, the 31.0 shots per game allowed tied for 14^th-fewest in the league for the week.  Their performance at 5-on-5 was a bit better, the 132 shot attempts over the three games tied with Boston and Dallas for seventh-fewest in the league for the week.

Four Capitals were on ice at even strength with no goals scored against for the week – Tom Wilson, Danial Sprong, Axel Jonsson-Fiallby, and Connor McMichael.  Three Caps were on ice for five even strength goals against – Dmitry Orlov, Nick Jensen, and Conor Sheary.  John Carlson and Martin Fehervary had the best goal differential on ice at evens, each with a plus-5.  Ovechkin, Orlov, and Jensen were at the other end with a minus-2 for each player.

Goaltending: 2.53 / .914 (season: 2.63 / .909 / 7 shutouts)

It was a perfect week for the netminders in terms of wins, but that is where the similarity ended.  Vitek Vanecek won the first two games of the week, stopping 68 of 73 shots his two outings (.932 save percentage).  He was especially effective in first periods, stopping all 24 first period shots he faced in his two games. 

Ilya Samsonov drew the difficult assignment of facing Carolina, and his performance illustrated the difference between effectiveness and efficiency.  He was effective in terms of keeping the Caps in the game in a very difficult venue for visitors, and he did prevail in the end, stopping all three Carolina freestyle shots in the Gimmick to earn the win.  But his efficiency could have used some work, allowing three goals on only 20 shots, a .850 save percentage.  Still, a win is a win is a win, and that’s the object of the exercise.

Power Play: 3-for-8 / 37.5 percent (season: 19.4 percent / 21st).

Another big week for a power play that has been quite formidable of late.  The 3-for-8 week was the third straight week that the Caps finished at or over 30 percent, going 11-for-29 (37.9 percent).  It was the third consecutive week that the Caps posted three or more power play goals and fourth in the last five weeks. 

Alex Ovechkin had two of the power play goals, and Evgeny Kuznetsov had the other.  Five skaters recorded power play points, led by Ovechkin (three) and Kuznetsov (two).  The Caps spread the power play time around, ten skaters getting at least a full minute of power play ice time.

Penalty Killing: 7-for-8 / 87.5 percent (season: 80.9 percent / 12th)

It was a good week on the other side of special teams, the 7-for-8 week being the fourth week in the last five that the Caps finished the week with a penalty kill of 87.5 percent or better (90.2 percent over those five weeks).  Nine different Caps skated at least four minutes shorthanded for the week, led by Trevor van Riemsdyk, who logged 9:50 in shorthanded ice time.

Faceoffs: 101-for-195 / 51.8 percent (47.4 percent / 28th)

It was on of those weeks that might have looked better than it was for faceoffs.  True, the 51.8 winning percentage for the week was a welcome surprise, but the Caps did not have as good a result in the ends, going 35-for-69 in the offensive end (50.7 percent) and 30-for-63 (47.6 percent) in the defensive end.  The Caps were 36-for-63 in the neutral zone (57.1 percent) to improve the overall numbers.

Of the four Caps to take at least ten draws, Nicklas Backstrom had the best week at 34-for-58 (58.6 percent), including a fine 10-for-16 in the offensive zone (62.5 percent).  However, Backstrom’s offensive zone performance was given back, and then some, by Evgeny Kuznetsov, who was 8-for-26 in the offensive end (30.8 percent).  Connor McMichael had a fine week in this area, going over 60 percent in both ends of the ice.

Goals by Period

It was a case of starting and ending games in style with the Caps owning a plus-4 goal differential in the first and third periods of games.  Second periods were a problem, the Caps scoring only two goals and allowing five.  It was consistent in the context of the entire season to date, the Caps holding a plus-19 goal differential in the first periods of games and a plus-23 third period differential.  The second period has not been as happy a result, the Caps with a minus-5 differential for the season at week’s end.

In the end…

There might have been a few things to pick at in Week 23, but that’s what would be…picky.  Three wins in three tries made the blemishes, few that were there, largely irrelevant.  Washington seems to have shaken off the two-month swoon they had to start the new year, and that is good news as the team head into the stretch run.

Three Stars

• First Star: Alex Ovechkin (3-1-4, minus-2, two power play goals, 13 shots on goal, 21 shot attempts, eight credited hits, shootout game-deciding goal, passed Jaromir Jagr for third place all-time in goals scored)
• Second Star: Anthony Mantha (3-0-3, plus-1, 12 shots on goal, 16 shot attempts, six credited hits)
• Third Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (3-1-4, minus-1, 11 shots on goal, 15 shot attempts)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 64: Stars at Capitals, March 20th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return home on Sunday after a short, but successful and consequential road trip to host the Dallas Stars in an early evening (5:00 pm) contest at Capital One Arena.  The Caps all but eliminated the Columbus Blue Jackets from postseason play with a dominating 7-2 win in Columbus and came back in the third period against the Carolina Hurricanes to force extra time before prevailing in a Gimmick, 4-3.  The Stars will come to Washington to play the back half of a back-to-back set of games after facing the New York Islanders on Saturday afternoon.

Dallas has been streaky of late, a four-game winning streak followed by a three-game losing streak (0-3-0) before beating the Montreal Canadiens in overtime, 4-3, on Thursday night.  Even with their recent streaky play, the Stars are 15-7-1 since January 20^th, a record that has them on the edge of a playoff spot, one point behind the Vegas Golden Knights for the second wild card spot in the Western Conference.

It has been more a matter of defense for the Stars that has brought them back into playoff contention.  And that starts with an odd divergence in performance in goal over those last 23 games.  Former Capital Braden Holtby has limited work and has a 4-2-0 record in his six appearances over this stretch.  But his underlying numbers – 3.47, .893 – have been poor.  It is something of a departure for him this season, which is arguably his best since he led the Caps in goal to the Stanley Cup in 2018.  In four seasons since, his 2.78 goals against average is his best in that span, as is his .913 save percentage.  What he does not have, this season or last or the season before that, is a shutout.  Of 37 goalies to appear in at least 75 games over the last three seasons, Holtby is the only one without a shutout (none in 93 games).  Holtby has a loss in his only career appearance against the Caps, allowing five goals on 27 shots in 40 minutes of work in a 5-0 loss to the Caps on January 28^th.

At the other end of the performance spectrum in goal for the Stars over this 15-7-1 run is Jake Oettinger.  He is 11-5-1, 2.29, .926, with one shutout over that span.  That goals against average ranks tenth among 59 goalies logging at least 250 minutes, and his save percentage ranks eighth in that group.  It should not be surprising that Oettinger has performed well.  He was the 26^th overall pick and first goalie selected in the 2017 Entry Draft.  If Oettinger has a problem, it is that a fine start has settled into a middle-of-the-road level of performance.  He was 9-2-0 through January 12^th, his 2.20 goals against average ranking seventh of 55 goalies with at least 500 minutes, and his save percentage of .923 ranked tenth.  But since then, he is 11-7-1, his 2.63 goals against average over that span ranking 17^th of 47 goalies with at least 500 minutes, and his save percentage of .914 ranking 18^th.  He is 1-3-0 in his last four appearances with a 3.49 goals against average and a .891 save percentage.  He has had some bad luck on the road of late, going 2-3-1 in his last six road games, despite a 2.32 goals against average and a .923 save percentage.  Oettinger has only 20 minutes of experience against the Caps, stopping both shots he faced in the 5-0 loss to the Caps on January 28^th.

Jason Robertson has put the Stars on his back in terms of offensive production over their 15-7-1 run, his 17 goals in those 23 games being more than twice as many as the second-leading goal scorer, Tyler Seguin (eight), his 23 points leading the team, his six power play goals being twice as many as the number posted by Joe Pavelski and Roope Hintz (three apiece), his five game-winning goals being more than twice as many as Alexander Radulov and Jacob Peterson (two apiece), and his 21.3 shooting percentage being best of any skater posting at least five shot on goal over that span.  Having reached the 51-games played mark, he has matched last year’s game total.  The production, however, has improved dramatically.  Last year, in 51 games as a rookie, he had 17 goals, second to Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov (21) among rookies.  In 51 games so far this season, Robertson has 30 goals, most of his 2017 draft class this season (he was a second round, 39^th overall pick by the Stars).  Last year, his 28 assists led the rookie class, and he has 25 this year in the same volume of games played.  His 45 points last season were second to Kaprizov (51) among rookies, but he has eclipsed that with 55 points in 51 games so far this season.  He has ten power play goals in 51 games this season compared to one in 51 games last season.  He is shooting 19.5 percent this season compared to 13.4 percent last year in the same number of games. 

In terms of his home-road splits this season, Robertson is slightly more productive in road goal scoring (0.67 per game) than at home (0.52).  And, he is shooting 21.9 percent on the road to date, compared to 17.3 percent at home.   Robertson goes into Saturday’s game against the Islanders with nine goals in his last nine games, including hat tricks in consecutive games against Winnipeg (a 4-3 win) and Minnesota (a 6-3 win), in both games providing the game-winning goal, both games on the road.  Robertson has only one appearance against the Caps, going without a point and posting an even rating.

1.  Dallas has started slow on offense in their 15-7-1 run (18 first period goals) and finished slow (19 third period goals), but their 29 second period goals are tied for third-most over that span of games.

2.  The Stars have allowed only 43 5-on-5 goals over those 13 games, tied for seventh-fewest over that period.

3.  Over their 23-game run, Dallas has scored first 12 times, winning ten of those games.  Their .833 winning percentage in those games is tied for fourth-best over that stretch.

4.  Dallas has done well when trailing first as well, posting a 5-5-1 mark when allowing the first goal.  The .455 winning percentage is tied for sixth over that period.

5.  The Stars have been especially successful in one-goal games over their 15-7-1 run, going 9-2-1, their .750 winning percentage ranked first in the league over that period.

1.  After losing six straight games on home ice, the Caps have won their last three contests at Capital One Arena, outscoring opponents, 12-5 (not including Gimmick goals).

2.  In the “not surprising” category, the Caps are 24-2-2 when scoring four or more goals.  They are 11-16-8 when allowing three or fewer.  For the Caps to be successful down the road, they will have to be more successful in low scoring games.

3.  The Caps are 15-11-5 at home this season, the .565 points percentage being their worst since they were 17-17-7 (.500) in 2006-2007.

4.  Defense has been an issue on home ice.  Washington’s 2.94 goals allowed per game are fourth-worst since the 2004-2005 lockout.

5.  If there is a good number in the Caps’ home record this season, it is this – 92.7.  That is their net penalty kill on home ice for the season, once shorthanded goals for are accounted for, their best since the 2004-2005 lockout.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Dallas: Joe Pavelski

Since he came into the league in 2006-2007, Joe Pavelski has been one of the more unsung players in the NHL.  In 16 seasons since he came into the league, he ranks seventh in games played (1,145), sixth in goals scored (417), tied for 11^th in points (903), 12^th in plus-minus rating (plus-149), fourth in power play goals (150), tenth in power play points (327), tenth in game-winning goals (68), first among all forwards in blocked shots (985), tied for 15^th among all forwards in takeaways (673), and he is the only player to have posted 150 power play goals and ten shorthanded goals over that span of seasons.  Only once in 13 seasons playing in 70 or more games did he fail to hit the 20-goal mark (19 goals in 82 games with San Jose n 2007-2008).  Only once in those 13 seasons did he not reach the 50-point mark (40 points in 82 games in 2007-2008).  He has received Selke Trophy votes as top defensive forward in 12 of his previous 15 seasons, his seventh-place finish last season a career best.  And, he has been a player who has played within the rules, topping 40 penalty minutes only twice in his previous 15 seasons and receiving votes for the Byng Trophy for gentlemanly play six times in his career.

At age 37, Pavelski seems to have slowed down very little, if at all.  He is tied for second on the team in goals (23, with Roope Hintz), first in assists (37), first in points (60), tied for first in power play goals (ten, with Jason Robertson), and tied for first in power play points (17, with Hintz).  He has 30 points in 30 road games this season.  He comes into this game 4-8-12, even, over his last 13 games, including a four-point performance in a 4-1 win over Colorado on February 15^th.  Pavelski is 9-12-21, plus-7, in 22 career games against Washington.

Washington: Justin Schultz

Justin Schultz has had his struggles this season.  He has been nicked up from time to time, missing eight games on four separate absences for a variety of injuries and COVID protocol.  And in the 55 games he has played, his offensive output has been off (2-12-14, minus-7).  He suffered a very slow start (1-1-2 in his first 21 games) and has recovered somewhat (1-11-12 in his last 34 games), but his 0.25 points per game being the lowest of his career to date.  His goal scoring has dried up almost entirely.  He is without a goal in his last 27 games.  He is one of eight players over that span with no goals on 40 or more shots (he is 0-for-41).  And one of the odd things about his offensive output, or lack thereof, is that getting more ice time doesn’t help.  In 19 games in which he logged 17:30 or more, he has no goals and has only five points.  Schultz has fared better at home, though, going 2-7-9 in 28 games at Capital One Arena while posting an 0-5-5 scoring line in 27 road games.  Odd Schultz fact… the Caps are 12-3-4 in the 19 games in which Schultz did not have a shot on goal.  Odd Schultz fact 2… although not known as a physical player, the Caps are 14-5-1 in 20 games in which he was credited with at least one hit.  Schultz is 4-6-10, plus-9, in 19 career games against Dallas.

In the end…

This game could be a challenge for the Caps who, after two big road wins, could be lulled into a sense of complacency with their return to their own arena.  And, while the Caps have had good results over the last eight games overall (7-0-1), they have not been dominating of late, four of their last five games going to extra time (3-0-1), two of them to the Gimmick (both ending in wins).  Combine this with Dallas’ desperate drive to reach the postseason, and this could be a tougher game for the Caps than it might appear at first blush.

Capitals 4 – Stars 2