The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Panthers, February 15th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s the “to-back” part of the “back-to-back” weekend as the Caps head across the state of Florida to take on the Florida Panthers. It will be a tougher test for the Caps, as last night’s opponent – the Tampa Bay Lightning – were treated more or less like hamburger…


“Zey treated ze Tempah leck em-behr-gehr…”

Oh spit, not THIS guy…Inspector Clousseau, what brings you to Miami?

“I em a fenn of ze Benthehrrs.”

You are a fan of the Panthers?

“00-else woode Ah be a van uhv?…”

How did you become a fan of the Benth…uh, Panthers?

“Ah du nutt know, but Ah emm ungree…Ah wood leck to buy eh am-behr-gehrnn.”

A what?

“Eh emm-behr-genn.”

You mean “hamburger?”

“Ah wood leck to by a demm-behr-genn…”

Candice Bergen?

“eh EM-BEHR-GENN!”

Sean Bergenheim plays for the Islanders. The Caps are playing the Panthers…

And this will be a jump up in weight class for the Capitals, because the Panthers just won’t go away. Florida has climbed to seventh in the Eastern Conference, and they hold a game in hand on both teams ahead of them – Montreal and the New York Rangers – both only two points ahead of the Panthers. While an 11-point lead in the division might look safe, Washington needs to send a message to the upstarts that there is room for only one big dog in the Southeast, and it wears a red jersey (no, not with a weather symbol on it). But it will be a challenging task, as the numbers suggest:



These teams met just eight days ago – a 3-1 win for the Capitals – and since then, Florida has gone merrily along, winning the three games leading up to this contest. It’s part of a longer 12-3-3 run that Florida is on in the 2009 portion of the season in which…

-- They have allowed more than three goals only four times in18 games.

-- They have scored more than four goals six times.

-- They have not lost consecutive games of any sort (regulation, overtime, Gimmick).

-- They have not allowed more than three goals in consecutive games.

-- They are 7-1-2 at home.

-- They have not allowed more than one power play goal in any of the 18 games.

Those are the good parts. Now, here is the concern – the Panthers started the 2009 portion of the season going 13-for-52 on the power play (25.0 percent). However, they’ve put up a goose egg in their last 16 chances over five games. That has coincided with getting fewer chances – 4.33 a game in the first 12 games since New Year’s Day, 3.20 a game in their last six.

As we noted eight days ago, the Panthers have balance. They have 16 players with double-digit point totals, 12 of them with more than 20 points. What the Panthers also have had is a bit of luck, health-wise. They’ve dressed 28 skaters and two goalies this year. Six of those skaters have dressed for fewer than five games, so the Panthers can be said to have fielded largely the same squad for most of the year.

It might not be a group that will be entirely whole for long, though. Talk of whether defenseman Jay Bouwmeester stays or goes is this year’s “make-work-for-hockey-pundits” industry. The play of the Panthers and that of Bouwmeester have not made the decision an easy one for GM Jacques Martin. It seems a virtual certainty that whatever the Panthers do, Bouwmeester will test the free agent waters at the end of the year, making his departure from South Florida as much of a virtual certainty in any case.

But in the meantime, the 25-year old is 12-18-30, +8 so far this year. But after recording a “Half Green” (goals in four consecutive games), ending on January 17th, he is 2-2-4 in his last 11 games. That might be the first indication that the waiting and wondering is having an effect, although Bouwmeester is still a plus-4 over that period and has logged less than 25 minutes of ice time only once. He’s been solid, if unspectacular in his career against the Caps (4-12-16, even, in 34 career games).

It is interesting to note that of the top-15 Panther scorers, 14 of them are “plus” players (Nathan Horton being the exception). The scoring list is topped by Stephen Weiss, and he’s been making a habit of helping out with all the assists he’s been dishing out. In his last nine games Weiss has seven assists to go with a pair of goals. He has only nine goals on the year, but he has seven in 27 career games against the Caps.

The Panther of greatest concern to the Caps, though, might be second-leading scorer David Booth. The Detroit native leads the Panthers in goals (20). But after getting eight in the first 13 games Florida played after Christmas, Booth has been kept off the goal-scoring sheet in his last six games.

Richard Zednik is what passes for “hot” on the Panthers at the moment. In his last five games, the former Cap is 4-2-6, +6, with two game-winning goals to his credit. What he hasn’t been is particularly successful against the Caps – 5-8-13, -1 in 24 career games against his old team.

Since Craig Anderson won a 4-3 overtime decision in Toronto on February 3rd, Tomas Vokoun has gotten the call. In those five games, Vokoun is 4-1-0 (his only loss coming to the Caps eight days ago), 1.78, .949, with a shutout of Carolina. He’s allowed two or fewer goals in four of those games. He’s also played well against the Caps, even if his record of 6-7-0 lifetime doesn’t reflect it. He’s posted a 2.16 GAA and .934 save percentage in 13 career games against Washington.

Anderson has played only once since January 17th – the 4-3 win over Toronto – and only four times in 2009. It’s good bet he’ll keep his 1-3-0 career record against the Caps (2.76, .904) under a baseball cap for this one.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Florida: Cory Stillman

Stillman has missed 16 games this year, but since returning to the lineup on December 14th, he is 6-18-24 in 26 games. He has points in seven of his last nine games (1-10-11). He’s also been something of a thorn in the side of the Caps in his career – 11-21-32 in 34 career games. Stillman has been something of the equivalent of a rabbit’s foot for Southeast Division teams. He’s been a member of Stanley Cup champions in both Tampa Bay and Carolina. Florida is his third Southeast team.

Washington: Sergei Fedorov

In what is likely to be a most closely fought, tightly checked game than last night’s contest in Tampa, Fedorov is the guy who has the experience to be patient and to do the little things – set plays up, take faceoffs, be responsible in his own end, kill penalties – that are important in games such as this. He also has 11 goals in 21 career games against the Panthers. Even if he doesn’t show up on the scoring register, his contributions could be important.

The Panthers are a team that other clubs probably hate to play. They are defense-oriented, don’t play much in the way of exchanging scoring chances (although their offense is probably underrated), they get very good goaltending on a nightly basis. Add to that the fact that Florida has won five games in a row at home, four of them by one goal (including a Gimmick). They’ve also won three in a row overall. It’s a club that plays their style and sticks to it – rather effectively at the moment. What the Panthers have not done this year is win four in a row. By midnight, this will still be true.

Caps 3 – Panthers 2

A TWO-point night: Caps 5 - Lightning 1

Mike Green scored a goal.

Green’s goal – the eighth consecutive game in which he scored a goal – broke the record for defensemen in the NHL held by Mike O’Connell, who did the trick in seven straight games for the Boston Bruins in the 1983-1984 season. It was one of five the Caps would score – five different players doing the deed – in a 5-1 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning at St. Petersburg Times Arena in Tampa.

Eight games, ten goals, seven assists, 17 points, plus-10. You want a framework for comparison? The Tampa Bay Lighting defensemen who took the ice tonight – for the entire season – have only six goals among them. And what a February he’s had so far. Tonight was the first time in six games Green failed to register a multi-point game. Nevertheless, he is 8-6-14, +8 in six games this month. He could probably take the rest of the month off and be a finalist for player of the month.




But as the team is not Alex Ovechkin and the Ovechkinettes it isn’t Mike Green and the Greenies, either. Tonight marked the debut of Michal Neuvirth in the Capitals’ net, and he turned in a performance that might have folks going “wow,” but not for Green’s record-setting performance. Neuvirth flashed more leather than you’d see at a biker bar, gloving shot after shot from Lightning sticks. He might have had the single most important play of the game.

With the Caps leading 1-0 on an Alexander Semin goal, Mark Malone finished a check on Boyd Gordon at the players’ bench. The puck squirted into the middle, where David Steckel got a stick on it, but couldn’t control it. Martin St. Louis curled in and scooped the puck down the ice to Vincent Lecavalier breaking free. Lecavalier skated in alone on Neuvirth and tried to snap the puck over the goalie’s left shoulder. Neuvirth got the glove up in time to snare the puck and keep the lead at one. If Tampa scores there, the game might have been a lot more competitive than it turned out to be.

After that, the Caps abused Tampa’s goalie – Mike McKenna – to the tune of an additional two goals in the first period, giving them three on 12 shots and ending McKenna’s evening an hour and a half before he expected it to end.

Green’s goal would come in the sixth minute of the second period after his initial shot was blocked – oddly enough by former Cap Matt Pettinger. The puck popped into the air and dropped into the low slot, where Green had another chance to swipe at it. He took advantage of the second opportunity, flicking the puck past defenseman Matt Smaby and goalie Karri Ramo for the record.

Eric Fehr closed the scoring off of a no-look feed from behind the Tampa net by Tomas Fleischmann, who took the puck away from Ramo – caught in the no-man’s land outside the Trapezoid of Safety, where he had to pass on playing the puck – then occupied a pair of Tampa defenders as he was buying time to make the pass.

It was a clinical dissection of the Lightning by the Caps…

-- As noted, five different players had goals, including the big guys – Ovechkin, Semin, and Green. Nine different players had points.

-- Alexander Semin was 1-2-3 for the night. That’s 49 points in 37 games, which over an 82-game season would result in 109 points. He’s the big scorer in this league no one talks about.

-- The Caps have four players on a better than point-a-game pace: Ovechkin, Semin, Green, and Nicklas Backstrom. How many Caps teams in franchise history have had four or more players averaging a point a game or more (at least 50 games played)?... One – the 1985-1986 team had five (Dave Christian, Mike Gartner, Craig Laughlin, Bengt Gustafsson, and Alan Haworth).

-- Obviously, we were not in the arena, but we could swear we could hear conversations on the Caps bench… the Tampa crowd was that quiet.

-- Did Tampa Bay give up after two periods? Well, they had one shot in the first 15:30 of the third period, and that one came from 136 feet more than 11 minutes into the period (Lecavalier).

-- Did Shaone Morrison play his best game of the season? It’d be hard to find a better one. He was rewarded with the second highest amount of ice time for the Caps (20:37). And it seems his pairing with Mike Green still works (or at least works again).

-- Speaking of ice time, the four goals in two periods allowed Coach Boudreau to distribute ice time evenly – a big deal since the Caps play at 5:00 tomorrow against Florida. Ovechkin who averages almost 23 minutes a game, skated for 17:32. Green, who averages 25:35, skated for 23:33. Semin and Backstrom both played a minute or more less than they average. Donald Brashear, who averages only 8:36, skated for 11:05.

-- All of a sudden, Eric Fehr is a scorer. The goal tonight makes five in six games. Over that span, he’s 5-2-7, +5. He led the team in shots on goal tonight (six).

-- It was equal opportunity night for the Lightning… 12 players finished on the minus-side of the ledger. 13 different skaters were on the ice for Caps goals. Matt Smaby was on for the first four of them. The only Lightning player to finish on the plus side?... Steve Eminger.

-- Shaone Morrisonn’s goal was his second this year. If he scores another, it matches a career high.

-- How many times will Ovechkin and Green go in on a goalie, two-on-none, and not so much as get a shot on goal? It was like watching Earvin Johnson and James Worthy going two-on-none on a fast break. Pass-pass-pass-pass-pass… except the Lakers usually scored on theirs.

-- It’s hard to imagine that the size of the numerals on Evgeny Artyukhin’s jersey are the same size as the numerals on Martin St. Louis’ jersey. I’m half-expecting that Artyukhin should wear a third digit on the back of his jersey to fill up the space. He’s a big, big guy.

-- Three power plays to kill off (they were successful on all of them) was the fewest such situations the Caps have faced since killing all three in a 2-1 win over the Rangers on January 3rd. The Caps are 13-2-0 when facing three power plays or fewer.

-- How many teams with Stanley Cup aspirations have two goaltenders dress for their NHL debuts (not including Brett Leonhardt) in a season, let alone have them go 3-0-0, 1.33, .958?

-- The Caps started the year 4-8-2 on the road. Since then, they are 9-4-2, and tonight they finally got over the .500 mark (13-12-4).

If you’re looking for something bad to say about the game, it might be, “geez, why can’t they do this every night?” Part of it is the competition – Tampa has a poor season record and have struggled some in their last half dozen games – but the Caps very often play down to this level of opponent. It might have been the fact that they were mindful of a rookie in goal, it might have been wanting to play well in front of their fathers, many of them accompanying the team on the Florida trip. In any case, the Caps played efficiently and effectively. They got goals from the guys who are supposed to score them, assists from the guys supposed to get them, and they got saves when they needed them from the rookie. Congratulations to Mike Green and Michal Neuvirth on their big nights.

Just don’t forget there’s another game to play tomorrow.

Great job, boys.

photos: AP

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, February 14th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s February 14th, and we all know what that means…

That’s right, on this date in 1896, Winnipeg defeated Montreal, 2-0, in the first successful challenge to the holder of the Stanley Cup.

We’re not making this up. And neither are we making up these holiday specials…

...a Richmond Renegades (ECHL) '00-'01 Ryan Van Buskirk St. Valentine's Day jersey

…Missouri River Otters Valentines Day Jersey, circa 2005

…Grand Rapids Griffins romance, 2007 version

…then there is the Seattle Thunderbirds version

…and you’d have to bet on there being a Las Vegas Thunder jersey in here somewhere.

But there is real hockey to be played this evening, and the Caps are visiting the Tampa Bay Lightning. And for those of you who have not been paying attention since the last time these clubs met, on New Years Day, the Lightning have become respectable. Their 9-8-1 record since losing to the Caps, 7-4, on January 1st is better than Pittsburgh (8-9-1), the New York Rangers (7-6-3), and Montreal (9-10-0) over the same period, to name three clubs you might not have thought of.

It might be too late for the Lightning, though, as they still trail eighth-place Buffalo by 15 points with 27 games to play. The hole they dug for themselves is evident in their numbers…


What the numbers show is that while Tampa is certainly not a very good team, neither are they awful, and that is the danger for the Caps (as it seems to be a lot with such teams).

What has led to a more successful 2009 portion of the regular season for the Lightning is their power play. Since their loss to the Caps, the Lightning have converted 16 of 73 power play opportunities (21.9 percent). That power play has accounted for more than 30 percent of the Lightning’s total goals in that time.

Unfortunately for the Lightning, how that power play goes seems to dictate their results. And that is where the Caps might be catching a break tonight. The Lightning are 2-4-1 in their last seven games, during which they have gone 5-for-34 on the power play (14.7 percent). More to the point, in games they have lost, they are 2-for-26 (7.7 percent). If the Caps can stay out of the box, it will help, but this is a power play that is struggling in any case at the moment.

Oddly enough, their penalty killing has been rather sturdy in the 2-4-1 streak they are on. In those games, the Lightning have not allowed more than one power play goal in any game and have killed 27 of 31 shorthanded situations (87.1 percent).

For Tampa Bay, though, the name might be less “Lightning” and more “Clearance Sale.” Players such as Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier, and Vaclav Prospal have been mentioned in possible trades with less than three weeks to the trading deadline. One might expect Mark Recchi’s name to be included in such talk as well, and that would account for the top four scorers on this team. All of them have played in every Lightning game this year, and all of them seem to be playing, if not with an eye toward dragging the Lightning out of the nether reaches of the standings, then with an eye toward improving their attractiveness to potential trade suitors. Here are their results in the 19 games played in 2009:


If the Lightning are looking forward, then the players at the top of the list to focus on would be Ryan Malone and Steven Stamkos. Both had rocky starts to their seasons, but have put together decent 2009 portions to their seasons. Malone has ten goals in 19 games (just don’t look for helpers – he has but one assist), and Stamkos is 3-5-8, +3 in 16 games, which would not be such a bad pace for a 2008 draftee, except for all the hype in Tampa over his selection.

If Tampa has a glaring problem, it’s on the blue line. The Lightning have dressed 14 defensemen this year. Ten of them have played in at least 10 games (none have played in all 55 games). It’s been a revolving door. At the top of the heap – and this might speak volumes as to the problem – is former Cap Steve Eminger. In 53 games, Eminger leads the defense in goals (four…compared to 21 for Washington’s Mike Green), assists (18…compared to Green’s 28), and points (22…49 for Green).

As a group, the defense has a total of 27 power play points (5-22-27). Green has 24 by himself (the rest of the Caps’ defense has six, and that might be an issue for another discussion).

Things are not a lot better for the Lightning in goal. Five goaltenders have dressed for the Lightning this year, and former Cap Olaf Kolzig is done for the year with a Marty Brodeur (arm injury). Mike Smith has been as strong as can be in goal, given the circumstances, going 14-18-9, 2.62, .916, and two shutouts. Trouble is, he’s out. He had been playing through concussion symptoms for about six weeks before he informed the club, the original injury suspected to be the result of taking a shot off his mask against Edmonton on January 4th.

Mike McKenna will get the start. He’ll be making his first career start against the Caps, but he is 2-1-1, 2.21, .918 in five games so far this year.

Tampa will come into the game nicked up. In addition to Smith’s absence, Martin St. Louis was excused from practice yesterday for not feeling well. A number of other Lightning players – Recchi, Gary Roberts, Matt Smaby, and Cory Murphy – were excused from practice for what Lightning beat writer Damian Cristodero refers to as “body maintenance.”

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Mike McKenna

The Caps have scored 50 goals in the last 13 games they’ve played against Tampa Bay (3.85 per game). What’s more, in the last six games (4-1-1) Washington has scored 27 goals (4.50 per game), has scored fewer than four goals only once, and is 8-for-22 on the power play (36.4 percent). The whole Tampa Bay defense will have its work cut out for them in this one, but McKenna is the last, best hope to keep the Caps from turning the scoreboard into a pinball machine.

Washington: Michal Neuvirth

We’re betting Neuvirth gets his first career start against the Lightning tonight. His overall statistics at Hershey are not especially impressive – 4-3-2, 3.03, .890 – but in his last five games he was 2-1-2, 2.33, .917.

This could be one of those games that constitute goaltender abuse. The Lightning are catching the Caps as Washington is in the midst of one of their goal-scoring binges. The Caps could be starting a rookie goalie in his first NHL start. The subtext to this is Mike Green, who will be trying to set a modern record for defensemen in netting a goal in his eighth consecutive game.

He’ll do it, and he certainly won’t be alone. That January 1st score looks mighty tempting as a prognostication for this one…

Caps 7 – Lightning 4

As if you didn't know...

It's Friday the 13th...

...and another movie is opening today.

Ice-ops Fable

Vernon!

“Yeah, Mom?”

You are NOT going out looking like that!

“But, Mom…”

Don’t ‘But, Mom’ me…you are NOT going to school with ragged jeans, a ripped t-shirt, and flip-flops.

“But, Mom…what’s wrong with this?”

It’s just unacceptable young man…

“But Madison looks like this, and his mom doesn’t say anything…”

I don’t care what Madison’s mom lets him do, we expect the best from you.

“I suppose you want me to look as good as Ed or Cal…”

No, they don’t have all the responsibilities you have every day.

“Because they’re Canadian?”

Well, let’s not get into that…

OK, Bog Boy...Now You're Scaring Me

As of 12:50 pm, five of the last nine posts on the "D.C. Sports Bog" have been Caps/hockey related.

Isn't there some policy at the Post restricting the number of words devoted to hockey in a given week?

A thoughtful, and yet entertaining solution to "The Gimmick"

The Gimmick got me thinking…

It’s just so, well, bland. Three guys, three shots, skate in, do your thing, one team scores one more than the other, everyone goes home.

There must be a better way.

Well, your ol’ pal Uncle Peerless has the prescription for your mid-winter overtime blues. We revamp overtime.

Round One – Four-on-Four.

We’d leave this part of the overtime unchanged. If a team scores before five minutes are up, everybody gets home before The Daily Show comes on. But, if not…

Round Two – Three-on-Three.

Now, we start to have some fun. It’s three-on-three with a catch. Only one defender can enter and defend in the defensive zone at a time; only two attackers can be in the offensive zone. The three-on-three stuff is a neutral zone thing, only, to advance the puck. If more than one defender occupies the defensive zone, or of all three attackers occupy the attacking zone…penalty. If we’re still tied after five minutes…

Round Three – Two-on-Two.

Here’s the catch. The skaters have to tie their legs together – sort of a “three-legged-race” thing. It would make for some tough strategy decisions. Imagine Alex Ovechkin and Michael Nylander tied together…one is attacking the net, the other is doing salchows in the circle. Or, do you put a forward and a defenseman together? Two defensemen? What if the defensemen are Mike Green and Jeff Schultz? And, if that doesn’t work, and we’re still tied after five minutes?...

Round Four – One-on-One

This is the “gladiator” round. The coaches pick one player, each. Whoever they pick, they have to stay out there for the entire five (or fewer) minutes. If a player goes down to injury, the player still standing has to await the call from the referee – thumbs up, he gets a chance to shoot a penalty shot at the other goalie. If the referee chooses thumbs down, the player gets to kill the player on the ice.

Round Five – Goalie on Goalie

This is the no-holds-barred, “ultimate fighting championship” portion of the competition. Anything goes…want to whack your opponent with the paddle of the stick? Go for it. Pick up a handful of snow and toss it into his mask? Be our guest. Whatever. Anything a goalie can do to get the puck in the other net – while letting off some steam that has been building up from being abused in his crease all night – well, use your imagination, guys. And if, by some stroke of fate, we’re still tied after five minutes?

Mascots. We just haven’t figured that one out, yet.

A ONE-point night: Rangers 5 - Caps 4 (OT/SO)

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly. Spaghetti Western, Caps game… take your pick.

The Caps had their good moments, their bad ones, and their down right ugly ones in last night’s 5-4 Gimmick loss to the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden. Let’s review, shall we?...




Defense

The Good… Mike Green had two goals to give him 21 for the season. That number is now seven goals ahead of Sheldon Souray and Shea Weber among defensemen. His 49 points is six ahead of second-place Brian Raflaski. Oh, did we mention he’s played 11 fewer games than Souray or Weber, and 12 fewer than Rafalski?

The Bad… pretty much anyone Green wasn’t paired with. The Caps defense was credited with one takeaway last night (Green). There seemed to be more than a little confusion, too… like on the first goal, when Karl Alzner was pointing at Ryan Callahan coming late into the play as the puck was being carried down the left side by Lauri Korpikoski. Alzner left the middle to support Milan Jurcina on the left side, Nicklas Backstrom never did catch up, and Callahan had a free pass to the top of the crease to direct Korpikoski’s pass into the net.

The Ugly… the second period. The Rangers hadn’t scored three goals in a period since December 29th, and that was against the Islanders, so maybe that shouldn’t count. The last time before that?... against the Caps on December 23rd.

Forwards

The Good… The Hershey Boys – Tomas Fleischmann and Eric Fehr. They had a goal and an assist, each. More to the point, both were aggressive in the offensive zone. From time to time both of these guys seem to be a bit passive, even deferential to linemates. Last night, they just played their games. And a slice o’ pie to Sergei Fedorov… 11 of 17 in faceoffs (seven of ten in the defensive zone) and a plus-3.

The Bad… This will seem harsh, but Brooks Laich had his chances and just couldn’t put them away, most notably when he had Henrik Lundqvist down and out on the last attempt in the Gimmick. He gets that backhand over Lundqvist’s pad, we might still be at it.

The ugly… In the synchronized suckitude event (even strength category), that goes to Boyd Gordon and David Steckel. OK, now that was harsh, but geez guys… each of you were on the ice for those three second period goals the Rangers scored, and it wasn’t as if they were scored by Gretzky, Howe, and Orr… Korpikoski, Naslund, and Mara? Combined, they split a minus-6 and split 14 draws into wins and losses.

Goaltending

The Good… Jose Theodore foiling a three-on-one break-in for the Rangers about seven minutes into the game.

The Bad… Theodore “Donavan McNabbing” the winning Gimmick goal. Just as McNabb didn’t know NFL games could end in ties, so Theodore didn’t know a Gimmick goal could be scored (as it was) after the shot it the crossbar and came out. The puck rebounded off the crossbar and hit Theodore, who by his own admission wasn’t getting out of the way, thinking the play was over. The puck then trickled back into the net.

The ugly… Nigel Dawes and Ryan Callahan (no, not Mario Lemieux or Mike Bossy) getting Gimmick goals for the win...u-u-u-u-gly.

Special Teams

The Good… shutting out the Rangers on six power play opportunities.

The Bad… getting only two power play opportunities of their own.

The Ugly… taking four penalties – three of them in a span of less than six minutes, the fourth being a double minor – in the third period. The Caps killed any momentum they might have had after getting the second Green goal in the last minute of the second period. They played 10 minutes of the first 14:03 of the third period killing penalties. Thank your lucky stars, Caps fans, that the team got a point out of this one.

Overall

The Good… getting contributions from guys who need to step up (Fehr, Fleischmann) and doing it on a big stage… Green’s tying a modern record for consecutive games with a goal by a defenseman… getting a point when the Caps played long stretches as if they were trying to surrender that second point in regulation.

The bad… not getting the kind of defensive performance from the defensive forwards we’ve come to expect (or been spoiled by seeing so consistently).

The ugly… losing the second point on what amounted to the kind of lucky bounce that happens in hockey games.

Look, the Caps are the better team and shouldn’t have lost this game. I know it, you know it, and I suspect even Larry Brooks knows it (although he seems to think the Rangers dominated the game the way the Canadiens used to dominate the Caps when Scotty Bowman was coaching the Habs). But with Alexander Semin out, Alex Ovechkin fighting through rush hour traffic on the Major Deegan Expressway, there were some good signs from other guys who stepped up.

The defense – front to back – did not have a good night. That is a correctable problem, and we suspect it will be addressed before the team takes the ice in Florida this weekend. Theodore didn’t have his best night, and in an ironic sense, this game is the other bookend of quite a run he’s been on. After he was pulled in this arena the last time these teams met, he was “Jacques Roychuk”* in goal for seven weeks.

Don’t lose sight of the longer term goals here… Yeah, the Caps should have beaten the Rangers, but they are also 4-1-2 in their last seven games. That’s a 117-point pace. That’s the bigger picture here.


* a combination of Jacques Plante, Patrick Roy, Terry Sawchuk

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Rangers, February 11th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

I’m afraid I’m going to have to ask you, dear readers, to remain quiet and stand off to the side. Tonight’s opponent – the New York Rangers – have slipped to sixth place in the East and are only five points ahead of ninth place Florida. Looks like a crime scene investigation going on. Maybe we can see what the problem is here… Officer? What happened here?


“It’s ‘Detective’…well, ‘Doctor,’ actually…Sheldon Hawkes.”

What happened here, Doctor?

“Well, we discovered the New York Rangers’ here in sixth place in the East. On New Year’s Eve, they were sitting ten games over .500, but since then, they’re 6-7-2.”

Any clues?

“A few…let me call Detective Taylor over here…Mac, you guys find anything?”


“Power play. The Rangers don’t have one…eight for 51 since the start of the year. 15.7 percent… hard to win with that sort of production.”

But that’s actually an improvement over their season production.

“And I suppose you’re a detective?”

Well, no but…


“Hey, Flack…you played hockey, didn’t you?”

“Only in another movie, Mac…”

“Funny…you have any explanation why the Rangers are sinking in the standings?”

“Well, they’ve lost five in a row and given up 21 goals doing it.“

And they’ve only scored five…

“Maybe we should just turn this investigation over to you…”

Well, since you offered… The Rangers have been the very picture of mediocre for a few months now. Since jumping out to a 10-2-1 record by Hallowe’en, they are 19-18-4. They are on a five-game losing streak (0-4-1). But more than that, they have some really poor season numbers for a team with more than just “making the playoffs” aspirations…


The Rangers are among the better defensive teams in the league, as their cumulative goals allowed-per-game attests. But it is the only thing that seems to keep them in games. Their offensive woes are many…

- They are tied for last in the league in goals-scored per game

- They are 30th in goals-per-game at home

- They have scored more than three goals in only three of 17 games since Christmas, and only one of those against a team that is currently in the playoff eight of their conference.

- In a reverse example of ineptitude on offense, they have allowed eight shorthanded goals in 27 home games (tied for most allowed in the league). They’ve only scored 18 power play goals in those games.

What seems to have saved the Rangers’ season to this point is that they are 8-3 in shootouts – the most wins in the Gimmick in the league. Take that away, and they are a very pedestrian 21-20-2.

Is the problem in their parts? Well, let’s start at the top. Leading scorer Nikolai Zherdev (15-28-43) ranks no better than 47th in the league. What’s worse, he is only 3-7-10 in 17 games since Christmas.

Markus Naslund leads the club with 16 goals, which is tied for 62nd in the league. He’s had only three in 17 games since Christmas.

Then there are the payroll specials. Chris Drury, Scott Gomez,and Wade Redden encumber $20.9 million in cap room. Combined, they are 27-60-87. You might not think that altogether too bad, until you also realize that they are a combined -29 and have as many game-winning goals (six) as does Brandon Dubinsky (cap hit: $633,333).

Folks might remember that the first time these clubs met in November, Aaron Voros scored a goal (the only one for the Blueshirts in a 3-1 loss). He was something of an emerging cult hero at the time – a banger who could score (he was 6-5-11 in 17 games). Since then… 2-2-4 in 36 games. The Rangers' season in a nutshell.

Look anywhere you wish to cast your eyes, and this is a team that is a half-step from doom… at least after taking a quick perusal of the numbers. An example – the table above indicates that the Rangers are a struggling team 5-on-5 (27th in the league). Not surprisingly, that is merely the sum of the parts – five players are worse than a minus-10. By way of comparison, the Caps have two players at a team-worst minus-4. If there is a bright spot for the Rangers there, it is that Dmitri Kalinin, who was stuggling mightily in this statistic earlier in the year, is plus-7 in his last 15 games. Well, not so much “bright” as perhaps a soft glow.

Under the strict definition of the criteria for selecting a Hart Trophy winner, that the player be “judged to be the most valuable to his team,” Henrik Lundqvist might win the award. Despite getting next to no offensive support, Lundqvist is on a pace for his fourth 30-win season in four years in the league. His goals against average of 2.52 is higher than any of his previous seasons, but his save percentage of .913 is consistent with each of the past two years (when he was a Vezina Trophy finalist): .917 and .912. But here is how frustrating it’s been to be a goalie backstopping this team. In his last three games, Lundqvist has stopped 75 of 79 shots (.949 save percentage), has a goals-against average of 1.32… and doesn’t have a win to show for it (0-2-1).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Marc Staal

No, we do not think it because he’s going to have his head on a swivel looking for Alexander “Slappy” Semin. It is because he is minus-6 in his last eight games. On a team that struggles offensively, Staal – who leads the team in even strength ice time per game – can’t afford to be a minus player. He has been on the ice for 18 of the last 26 Ranger goals allowed over eight games.

Washington: Mike Green

Why not? Green is on a roll. Since the last time he had consecutive games without a point, he is 9-12-21, +7 in 12 games. This year and last, in six games against the Rangers, Green is 3-3-6, +3, with two game-winning goals (both in overtime).

The Rangers are that prize fighter that is wobbling at the end of a round in the middle of a fight from a lot of body punches. You can put ‘em down for the count, or you can let them escape to the end of the round to get their second wind. This is really a pivotal game for the Rangers. If they were to escape from the Caps, they would then have ten consecutive games against teams they were tied with (a win over the Caps would tie them with the Flyers, who they play on February 15th) or leading in the standings. That would be an opportunity for the Rangers to right their ship. But if the Caps can deliver a knockout blow, the Rangers might find those ten games even more difficult, coming as they would be in the midst of a six-game losing streak.

The Caps, even in Madison Square Garden, are the better team…

Caps 4 – Rangers 2

We can...

We can send a man to the moon, but…











We can turn orange drink into powder so the guys going to the moon can take it along, add water and have something to drink, but…











We can get 10,000 songs in a contraption smaller than a pack of cigarettes, but…









We can stick a gizmo on our car’s dashboard that tells us to within six feet where we are on the planet (and tell us in an annoying voice to turn this way or that), but…






We can build a tunnel 17 miles in circumference just to fire tiny little particles at one another really fast (ok, so that one doesn’t quite work, yet), but…





We can identify the entire human genome, but…












We can almost have a fully self-assembling “stomach-bot” for medical diagnoses and treatments, but…









We can turn water into fuel (it ain’t wine, but with the price of gas, it’ll do), but…










WE CAN’T TURN WATER INTO A DECENT SHEET OF ICE!!!



Heck, they discovered ice in the rocks on Mars. Pfft…kid stuff. Let’s see them discover it at the Verizon Center.

And now...yet another word about Mike Green

Much is being made of Mike Green lately, and with good reason. He is riding a six-game goal-scoring streak. He leads all NHL defensemen in total scoring. He’s fourth in plus-minus. J.P. takes a look at Green’s Norris credentials over at Japers' Rink. James Mirtle asks, “Is Green the NHL’s best defenseman?” What’s unanswered is whether Green can keep this up.

Well, if there is one thing that has characterized Green’s young career so far, it is explosive improvement (we like that term). Two years ago in his first full NHL season, Green played in 70 games, finishing 2-10-12, -10. He had a rather brutal end to the season though (as did the rest of the Capitals), going 0-4-4, -11 in 22 games after the end of January.

OK, let’s move on to last season. His season-long numbers improved dramatically – 18-38-56, +6. The improvement over the previous season (16-28-34, +16) would have made for a nice season in itself. But his improvement as a player might have been most meaningful in those post-January games. In his first 52 games last year, Green was 14-18-32, -5. What he had that he didn’t have in 2006-2007 was a big finish… but not in the goal-scoring sort of way. In his last 30 games last year from February 1st forward, Green was 4-20-24, +11. If he wasn’t getting the goals he might have been getting to earn the nickname “Game Over” Green, he was getting it done in other ways. And, two of those four goals in the last 30 games were game-winners (equaling his total in the first 52 games).

Looking at this graphically…

His pre-February numbers this season equaled or surpassed last year’s in every category, except game-winners, despite playing in 15 fewer games. He has already surpassed the number of post-January goals he had last year in the post-January phase of the season. One couldn’t predict (at least not while sober) that Green will average better than a goal a game and better than the two points per game pace he’s been on in the four games of February, but here is perhaps the number that serves as a good indicator that he won’t slow down much, either… two.

Green has not gone more than two games this season without recording a point. He’s had four pairs of consecutive scoreless games this year. On the other hand, he’s registered a point in 27 of 41 games played this season and 11 of his last 12 games.

While there are no certainties in such things, the arc of improvement in Green’s young career thus far suggests that he should be a prolific point producer from the blue line through the rest of the season. Is that enough to get him serious Norris consideration? Probably, given that in the last ten seasons no Norris winner has had fewer than ten goals or 50 points in his Norris-winning season.

History, Part I

Time for a history lesson, kids...

Last year, the Capitals finished the season in a big way. Fans remember them winning 11 of their last 12 games to finish at the top of the Southeast Division. But what fans might not remember as much was that from February 1st to the end of the year, the Caps were 19-8-3 for 41 points in the standings. It was the sixth time in franchise history that the Caps earned 40 or more points from February 1st forward.

Twice in franchise history the Caps have earned as many as 45 points after the end of January. In 1999-2000 Washington went 20-8-4-1 for their 45 points, while the 1985-1986 team went 21-7-3 for their 45 points.

However, the standard for comparison might be the 1983-1984 team. That club went 21-6-1 for 43 points (1.54 points earned-per-game, the most of any Caps team in the post-January portion of the season). There are some things about that team worth noting…

- Only once did the 1983-1984 team endure a losing streak after January 31st. That’s right, only once did they lose consecutive games, a three game losing streak from February 19-25 (all road games, all against Campbell – “Western” – Conference teams… some things don’t change).

- Keep in mind, this was the 1980’s, a time characterized by a lot of goal scoring. The Caps allowed more than three goals in a game only four times in the last 28 games after January 31st. They lost them all.

- 12 of the 21 wins registered by the Caps were by three or more goals. Ten times they scored at least five goals in a game (they won them all). Overall, they outscored their opponents 115-58 (4.11 – 2.07 per game).

- The Caps had two winning streaks in excess of five games – an eight-game streak from February 2-18 (part of a longer ten-game streak that started on January 27th) and a six-game streak from March 1-11.

- Oh, and the Caps were 4-0 against the Penguins after January 31st (6-1-0 for the year), outscoring them 24-6 in the four games.

That 1983-1984 team was the first of four teams in Capitals history to record more than 100 standings points (48-27-5, 101 points). If there was one word to describe it, it would be “balanced.” 13 players had 10 or more goals, seven had at least 20 (including a current Caps announcer). 19 players had ten or more points, six had at least 50 (including that guy again). 15 different players had game-winning goals. In a more subtle expression of the team’s balance, if you look at the top-ten scorers for that team, only one registered more goals than assists (Bobby Gould, and he was the tenth leading scorer on that club). They spread the puck around, and this was a team with both Mike Gartner and Bobby Carpenter, two excellent goal scorers in their own right.

The Caps are 3-1-0 to start their post-January sprint to the end of the regular season. It’s far too soon to gauge whether this club has the finishing kick to propel it forward in the standings, but if you’re looking for a standard against which to measure this team, the 1983-1984 team looks to be the Capitals team to have set the bar.

We just hope they advance farther in the playoffs than that club did...

A TWO-point night: Caps 3 - Panthers 1

See? They can kill penalties.

For the first time since January 3rd, the Caps killed off all the penalties they took, including a major penalty that gave the Florida Panthers a power play for all but the last second of regulation as the Caps defeated the Panthers, 3-1. It was even a better performance on the penalty kill than that as the Caps had to kill a 5-on-3 for the first 1:05 on the major penalty for checking from behind taken by Shaone Morrison, the result of a holding penalty taken by Sergei Fedorov with just under six minutes in regulation.

From the sellout crowd to the closely fought game, it had the feel of a playoff contest, and these are two teams that could find themselves playing a best-of-seven come April. Eric Fehr got things started for the Caps by working the puck up ice with Tomas Fleischmann in the first minute, snapping the puck under Tomas Vokoun’s left arm to get the Caps an early lead. Keith Ballard got the Panthers even eight minutes later with a drive from the top of the offensive zone, and after that things settled into a back and forth affair, the Caps getting a ton of shots on Vokoun, and the Panthers playing a counter-punching style for the rest of the first period and the second.

Stephen Weiss took a penalty at the end of the second period, and that would be the crack in the Florida armor the Caps would need. In the first minute of the third period, with Weiss still in the box, Alex Ovechkin readied himself for a shot on Vokoun. But with the Florida defense overplaying him, Ovechkin slid the puck to Mike Green, who rifled it over Vokoun to give the Caps the lead they would not relinquish.

Green would light the lamp one more time as the Caps were killing off the late major to Morrison, taking the puck at the boards in the corner to goalie Jose Theodore’s right, then lifting it out of the zone and all the way down the ice into the empty net vacated by Vokoun as Florida tried to take advantage with a sixth skater against the four defenders on the ice for the Caps.

Other stuff…

Although the Caps outshot the Panthers, 39-21, they also out-giveawayed (if that’s a word) the Panthers, 26-14.

Alex Ovechkin had an assist, but he also had 12 shots. That makes eight times this year he’s had at least ten in a game.

Was Florida ever going to score after Ballard’s goal? Well, if you look at the Panthers’ top six goal scorers – David Booth, Nathan Horton, Jay Bouwmeester, Cory Stillman, Michael Frolik, and Gregory Campbell – they had a combined five shots for the game. None of them had more than one, and none of them had an even strength shot on goal in the third period.

Ovechkin had the just about the whole buffet on the score sheet – 12 shots, 14 attempts, an assist, three hits, two takeaways, two blocked shots, and he won his only faceoff, creating an excellent scoring chance for himself in doing so.

We like Alexander Semin taking five shots, even if he didn’t get a goal. The six giveaways, not so much.

Shaone Morrisonn might get some grief for that last major penalty – it wasn’t an especially smart play (if you can see the guy’s name plate on the back of the jersey, don’t hit him…), but he did have four hits, too , and had a pretty decent game up to that point.

The two goals by Mike Green make for goals in six straight games. If you’re wondering, yes, Ovechkin does have a longer streak in his career – seven games (February 10th – March 8, 2006).

And speaking of Green, he is 7-6-13 in his last six games.

After Morrisonn took the major penalty at 14:59 of the third period, the Panthers had one shot on goal… one.

And, after Morrisonn’s penalty, Tom Poti took the most ice time among defensemen in killing off the major (2:48). You’d expect that. Who was next? Jeff Schultz (2:13).

Richard Zednik…four hits? OK.

And, if you’re counting…that’s 12 sellouts in the last 13 games for the Caps.

Losing isn’t a good thing, but when it happens the trick is to stop the bleeding before it becomes a habit. The Caps seemed to get the message tonight, as they pressured the Panthers from the openingdrop of the puck. Tomas Vokoun kept the Panthers competitive with some big saves, but it wasn’t evident that Florida would score after the Ballard goal unless there was some freakish deflection. That was good team defense, and great team defense when the Caps had to kill off the last five minutes of the game a man short. Just the way to wrap things up before going on the road.

Great job, boys.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Panthers, February 7th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s Hockey Night on Fun Street as the Caps try to get back on the winning track, hosting the Florida Panthers…

“Did he say ‘Panzers?...I fought the Panzers in dubya-dubya-two, ya know…”

No…Panthers..Pan-thers…the hockey team from Florida? Geez, must be a couple of Panther fans up from the retirement village in Fort Lauderdale…Anyway, tonight the Caps renew their acquaintances with a division rival, the first time the Caps have played a Southeast Division rival since New Years Day…

"…I remember New Years Day in 1948, we were at the Biltmore hotel, and you were wearing nothing but a…"

OK, that’s too much information you two… The Caps haven’t played the Panthers since December 2nd, the only time that the teams have met this year – a 5-3 panther win that gave the Caps their first loss in regulation time at home this season. The Panthers come into the game as the hot team you don’t hear anything about. Since ending 2008with a four-game losing streak, they’ve gone 9-2-3 in 2009 and climbed into the top eight in the East.

Florida has had the reputation of doing it with defense and goaltending – Bouwmeester, Vokoun, and a collection of unknowns. Well, we’ll get to them, but frankly, the recent Panther performance has been characterized by a rejuvenated offense. In the 9-2-3 run in 2009 they have scored 52 goals (3.71/game). However – and here is the key part – their production has started to tail off. After scoring 27 goals in their first five games of the new year, they have 25 in their last nine and have scored more than three in regulation only twice. Here is what they've done so far this season...



Fortunately for the Panthers, their defense has followed a similar trend as their offense in 2009. After allowing 14 goals in those first five games of the year (2.80/game), they’ve allowed only 22 in their last nine (2.44), more in line with what one expects of the 2008-2009 Panthers.

“Dancers? There are dancers at hockey games?”

Panthers, you old fart! PANTHERS! Like the cat…

“Hey, I might be old, but I don’t wanna see any fat dancers…”

Somebody get this guy a battery for his hearing aid…

Here is the odd part for a team like Florida, though. They have a reputation as a club with a good defense. You’d expect them to play games close. Then why are they 26th in the number of one-goal games played? They really ought to play more of them…they are 11-3-8 in such games. Despite being 26th in the number of one-goal games played, only seven teams have played in more one-goal games that earned them points. Every one of them, except Carolina, is in the top-eight of their conference. The motto of this is, if you don’t jump on them and let Florida hang around, they are going to bite you.

Individually, Florida doesn’t really have a lot to strike fear into opponents. Here is how they compare to the Caps is some offensive measures:

40-plus point scorers: FLA: 0 – WAS: 3
30-plus point scorers: FLA: 3 – WSH: 6
10-plus point scorers: FLA: 15 – WAS: 14
Players with game-winning goals: FLA: 14 (23 goals) – WAS: 15 (31 goals)


If you look at the last two elements there, what they appear to have is an ability to get contributions from up and down the roster. It starts with Stephen Weiss and David Booth, who not only top the scoring ranks for the Panthers, but rank first and third in plus-minus as well (Ville Peltonen being the player between these two).

Booth, in his third year in Florida, has shown a remarkable progression in his offensive game – ten points in 48 games in his rookie year, 40 points in 73 games last year, and he is on a pace for 59 this year. It won’t propel him to the top of the league scoring rankings overall, but he is developing into a goal scorer to be watched – his 20 goals puts him on a pace for 35 this season. The trouble for Booth in this game is that he’s had a recent bout with the flu. He missed the games against the Islanders and Tronto last week, but did return for Florida’s last game, a rematch against the Islanders, in which he had an assist.

Weiss, on the other hand, came to the Panthers as a fourth-overall pick in the 2001 draft. If he hasn’t achieved the level of play that might be expected of a fourth-overall pick (he’s never scored more than 48 points in a season in five full seasons preceding this one), he has become a steady performer. He finished with 48 points and 42 points the past two seasons (both in 74 games), and he is on a pace for improvement this year (59, at his current scoring pace). He’s had some success against the Caps – 7-10-17 in 26 games.

But the soap opera in Florida is “As the Bouwmeester Turns.” Speculation on whether Jay Bouwmeester would be traded by the March trading deadline has been going on for the better part of a year. Given Floeida’s stuggles in the standings the past few years (they have not made the playoffs since 2000), it was a given that Florida would move the young defenseman for a Brinks truck worth of prospects, picks, and/or players. Now? Well, it would still look as if Bouwmeester will be moved (he seems to prefer playing elsewhere), but it isn’t quite the slam-dunk it might have been in October.

While all of this is going on, Bouwmeester is playing as if he’s trying to bring the Panthers an even larger return that at fine, young two-way defensemen who is among the best skaters in the game would otherwise bring. He is tied for fourth on the team in points (28), third in goals (12), leads the team in power play goals (7), and leads the league in ice time per game. He is the very model of the cornerstone franchise defenseman. The games Florida plays between now an March 4th will probably pale in entertainment compared to the speculation surrounding Bouwmeester’s possible new destinations.

In goal, Tomas Vokoun had a finish to 2008 that he might like to forget. But 2009, that’s another story. The 2008 and 2009 portions of his season so far break down like this…

2008: 8-12-3, 2.83, .916
2009: 7-2-2, 2.15, .923

In 11 games in 2009, Vokoun has allowed more than two goals only three times. He’s had excellent number against the Caps – 2.16 GAA and a .933 save percentage – even though he’s played in a bit of bad luck, with only a 6-6-0 career record against Washington to show for it.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Florida: Nathan Horton

In an eight-game stretch from December 27 through January 10th, Horton scored six goals. Since then, he has had one in nine games. While he has managed to score by way of assist (nine in those nine games), Florida could use the additional firepower. His problem appears to be in shooting the puck. In 2007-2008, he had 217 shots on goal. Last year, 212. He is on a pace this year for 137. He’s had more than two shots in a game only once in 14 games in 2009. He hasn’t had more than three since early November. The Panthers might like him to shoot a bit more. Against the Caps, he is 5-7-12, -2 in 26 career games.

Washington: Alexander Semin

Here is another guy who might benefit from being a bit more selfish. He has taken more than three shots in a game 11 times this year. He has goals in seven of them. This might be why he should not be on a line with Alex Ovechkin. Like a lot of goal scorers, he scores them in bunches. Of the 20 he has this year, he’s had six in five games, seven in eight games, four in three games, and now two in three games, accounting for 19 of the 20 he’s scored. You’d have to like his chances in this game to get one…if he shoots the puck.

Florida is the kind of team that can give the Caps fits. They play a defensive style, they get good goaltending, they tend to play games close. But Washington plays one-goal games pretty well, too. The Caps are 13-6-4 in such contests this year (tied for 10th in winning percentage). We’re thinking it will be low scoring, with perhaps an empty-netter at the end…

Caps 3 – Panthers 1

A dozen games until the trading deadline...

...a dozen questions…

1. (When) does Neuvirth get a start?

With Brent Johnson now scheduled to undergo a hip procedure next week, Jose Theodore will have to shoulder the load, but he can’t play in every game. At the moment, the backup duties fall to the untested and untried Michal Neuvirth, a prospect of considerable potential, but one who has played a grand total of 21 games as a professional, none of them in the NHL. The Caps’ schedule coming up has Florida on tap at Verizon Center on Saturday, then a three-game road trip (Rangers, Lightning, Panthers). The games are spaced so that Theodore could play them all (Saturday, Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday), but it might be that the Caps will want to get a take on Neuvirth to see how urgently they need to look for a stop-gap replacement for Johnson. We think he’ll get a call within the week. Tampa looks like a good bet.

2. Does the schedule present an opportunity?

We think it does, because it offers two things that the Caps seem to need at the moment. First, an opportunity to play games against their divisional opponents. Six of the dozen games before the deadline are against Southeast Division opponents (Florida three times, Tampa Bay, Carolina, and Atlanta). The stars are aligned to make hay against the weak sisters (Atlanta, Tampa Bay) and the injured (Carolina), and to slam the door on the upstart Panthers. There are 12 points here for the taking. We think the Caps should grab eight. Ten would be better (duh…).

But the schedule also provides an opportunity for the Caps to test their mettle against teams they might see in the playoffs – the Rangers, Montreal, Philadelphia, Boston, and (yes, although we'll get to that) Pittsburgh. Three of those games are at home. The Caps have done well against such teams this year, and it would be helpful to maintain the competitive sharpness games against these teams provide. There are ten points there. If the Caps earn six, color us satisfied. If they get eight?...giddy.

3. Are the Caps going to be buyers at the deadline?

It seems the Caps will have a little – very little – wiggle room under the Cap to make a deadline move. They could go shopping for some insurance on defense, some grit up front, or they might have to find that replacement for Johnson. They have trading assets to use. Michael Nylander’s name has been bounced around more than a basketball at a Terps practice. But there are other assets, if the Caps think they can really go deep in the playoffs, and if the Caps use them fans in Hershey will not be pleased. Players such as Oskar Osala, Francois Bouchard, Mathieu Perreault, Chris Bourque, and perhaps even a Neuvirth, for that matter, whatever their potential as future Caps, also have value in trade. But that gets complicated a bit, by…

4. Will Eric Fehr finish what he starts?

When Fehr was a draft-eligible junior, we prognosticated that he would be drafted by Washington. We looked at his goal scoring progression in juniors thereafter, and in his AHL years, and thought he had a good chance to be doing much the same thing on the right side of the top line at some point. Then, injuries and the delays to his development that stemmed from that stopped his progress. He is still only 23, but it seems as though the clock is ticking on him. He’s played very well lately, getting top line opportunities last night and going 2-2-4 in his last four games. As much as the output has been his assertiveness. He has 17 shots on goal in his last four games, and as Alex Ovechkin shows, goal scorers don’t score if they don’t shoot. Now, Fehr needs to bury more of these chances. If he can produce in the next dozen games, it might make it easier on the Caps to move a youngster further down the food chain.

5. Does Karl Alzner return for good?

Here is what we wrote before checking in with Tarik El-Bashir…

It’s the kind of question that makes one think “bomb disposal specialist” is a job preferable to “professional sports general manager.” With Johnson out for surgery, it might signal a chance for the Caps to use any cap savings to recall Alzner. Except, the Caps have six healthy defensemen playing satisfactorily (last night notwithstanding), and the Caps might have need of a defenseman with more grit and experience for the road ahead in the playoffs than Alzner has at the moment. Unless there is an emergency, we don’t think he’s going to be called up (which means Capital Insider is probably reporting his recall as we type this).

Sure enough, Alzner’s been called up.

6. Which Tomas Fleischmann will show up as the season winds down?

In his first 36 games, Fleischmann was 15-8-23. In his last eight games, he is 0-2-0. Perhaps more troubling, he’s not getting (or not taking) any shots on goal. In those first 36 games, he had 76 shots. In his last eight games…nine. And, he’s had no more than two shots in any of them. Compare that to the 18 shots he had in his previous eight games (in which he had five goals). Oddly, though, in the first 36 games he was -11. In the last eight, he is +6. Go figure. If we could have the goal-scoring, plus-making Fleischmann, that would be nice.

7. Can Ovechkin replay 2008?

From February 1, 2008, forward to the end of the regular season, Alex Ovechkin went 22-20-42, +14 in 30 games. By way of comparison, he is 24-14-38, -3 in his last 30 games through last night. He’s going to get a break, if you can believe that, by getting more chances against Southeast Division opponents that he’s had a lot of success against in his career. His past-30 games goal scoring pace puts him on a pace to finish with 60 at the end of the year. Even if Ovechkin gets some of his minutes reduced (if the Caps are taking a big division lead into March, for example), it would seem likely those would be the PK minutes he gets (he averages 1:16 in penalty killing time per game at the moment). There could be another big finish in store.

8. Is Theodore really…I mean “really” now, no fooling…”the man?”

Japers has periodically made the point, using some pretty compelling numbers, that Theodore does have a distinctly dual-personality when it comes to his goaltending performance. His second halves are Martin Brodeur-like, while his first halves are more Martin Short. That’s nice, but really…c’mon now, no foolin’ around… is he really the guy? Or is this just the last, best, most cruel trick ever played on a Caps Nation that has seen more than its share of tricks played on it by fate. Using the data Japers employed, one thing that might bear watching is how much rubber he faces. Since Christmas, Theodore has been in the upper half of this group in terms of fewest shots per game faced. It’s one thing to have a goalie you are not quite 100 percent sold on (which is probably consensus in Caps Nation), it is another to test the proposition needlessly by leaving him out to dry to face a lot of shots.

9. Can the Caps overtake Boston?

The short answer to this is, “no.” Now, here’s the long answer. The Bruins began the year 2-2-3. Since then, they are 37-6-3. They’ve lost two games in regulation in succession once in that span. The Bruins have 29 games left to play. In the worst 29-game span they’ve had at any time since that start, they still earned 46 points (22-5-2, from November 22nd through January 29th). If the Bruins were to match that level of output over their last 29 games, they would finish with 130 points. The Caps have 70 points with 29 games to play. If the Caps win them all, they get to 128. Caps fans, do yourself a favor… put Boston out of your minds until May.

10. Can the Caps be overtaken for second?

The short answer to this is…“no.” Here is why (without all the empirical mumbo-jumbo). Montreal can’t catch them, because they can’t catch Boston (division winners getting the top three seeds automatically). Fourth is as high as they’ll finish. That leaves, as a practical matter one of: New Jersey, New York Rangers, or Philadelphia. On Hallowe’en, the Rangers were 10-2-1. Trick or treat? Since then, they are 19-16-4 and, with a record of 6-5-2 in 2009, have the look of a team that is this close to a major collapse.

New Jersey might have shot their ammunition already. The Devils just had their eight-game winning streak ended by the Caps, but the wheels were already coming off that wagon. The Devils have surrendered 11 goals in their last three games, and they have Boston and San Jose coming up in mid-February in consecutive games. At some point, Martin Brodeur will come back, but he’s in a place he hasn’t been before, and that the Devils haven’t been in, in almost two decades – wondering if Brodeur will be the rock in goal he’s always been.

Philadelphia has the most ground to make up against the Caps (nine points), and they are six points behind the Devils. Plus, their goaltending situation doesn’t argue for long winning streaks. Despite the fact that he’s played in only 21 games, Antero Niittymaki has better numbers (11-4-4, 2.59, .917) than number one netminder, Martin Biron (15-11-5, 2.89, .905). Biron was the hero last year, but having lost his last four decisions (giving up 14 goals in the process) he’s not looking lately as if he’ll repeat that performance.

Unless the Caps suffer a collapse, then second place looks like a better-than-even bet.

11. Will the Caps meet the Penguins in the playoffs?

The short answer to this is…”no.” Not in the first round, not in the second round, not ever this year. Why? Because the Penguins are the kind of mess in the same way that a room of furniture bought from eight different stores is a mess. The pieces don’t seem to fit coherently to make for a long, successful run of wins. Do they match Crosby and Malkin on a line, or do they split them up? When is Gonchar coming back? What winger can they match with Crosby to get any production? What happened to the power play (tied with Tampa for 23rd overall and dead last in the NHL on the road)? What happened to Fleury (he’s saved fewer than 90 percent of the shots he’s faced in nine of the last 16 games he’s played)? Do Crosby and coach Michel Therrien not get along? Will – or when will – Therrien be fired? The Penguins have, as they say, “issues” that go far beyond a Stanley Cup hangover. Even Barry Melrose, who would know the specie (having seen one up close coaching Tampa Bay this year), said that the Penguins aren’t a very good hockey team.

12. Who won’t be a Cap on the late afternoon of March 4th?

We’re a month out from the trading deadline, and you’re asking that question? Sorry, you’ll have to stay tuned to get that prognostication.

Vox Populi

Thanks to the folks at OFB for pointing the way to the ESPN poll.

A NO-point night: Kings 5 - Caps 4

It was fitting that last night’s opponent was the Los Angeles Kings. I felt as if I was hearing the voice of Charlton Heston standing upon the rock in "The Ten Commandments," proclaiming...

“Behold, his mighty hand!"

And then the Red Sea parted.

That was pretty much the recipe for success for the Los Angeles Kings as they parted the red-jerseyed Capitals often for breaks down the middle of the ice for scores and scoring chances, then held on for dear life in the final seconds in a 5-4 defeat of Washington last night.

Even though the Caps scored 15 seconds into the game when Brooks Laich stripped Matt Greene of the puck behind the Kings’ net and fed Alexander Semin for an early goal, you saw what was coming. Barely a minute later, Kings defenseman Jack Johnson found Derek Armstrong breaking down the middle of the ice, and with both Milan Jurcina and Jeff Schultz caught outside the dots on either wall of the ice, Armstrong had an unimpeded path to goalie Jose Theodore. The Caps’ goalie made the save, but that was just a taste of what was to come.

Only a minute after that, Michal Handzus found Alexander Frolov sprinting down the middle of the ice all alone behind Mike Green on a shorthanded breakaway. Theodore made the save once more (talk about a guy who would deserve a lot better than what he got on this evening from his teammates).

After the Kings tied the game on a 5-on-3 power play to close the scoring in the first period, Los Angeles broke the tie early in the second when Tom Poti and Shaone Morrisonn both found themselves, not only on the same side of the ice, but along the same stretch of boards. Standing between them, Frolov backhanded the puck to Anze Kopitar breaking free – down the middle – and the Kings’ center banged the puck past Theodore.

Then, on a Caps power play, Handzus beat Sergei Fedorov to a loose puck at the Kings’ blue line, then fed Frolov breaking – down the middle – past Alex Ovechkin. Ovechkin closed the distance, but Frolov managed to stop, turn, and put a shot on Theodore. The goalie could not find the puck beneath him, and Handzus swooped in to poke it into the net for a 3-1 Los Angeles lead.

The Caps got one back when Mike Green lugged the puck out of his own end, then fed Nicklas Backstrom cutting down the left side. Backstrom slid the puck back to Green, who ended up all alone to flick the puck past goalie Jonathan Quick to get the Caps back to within one.

That didn’t last long. From his own blue line, Kopitar found Patrick O’Sullivan breaking – down the middle – behind John Erskine. All that was left for O’Sullivan to do was take a couple of steps, deke, and slap the puck past Theodore to restore the two-goal Kings lead and leaving Theodore shaking his head at his own defense.

Right after the very next faceoff, Kyle Quincey lobbed the puck out of the Los Angeles end and found O’Sullivan at the Caps blue line. As he was falling, O’Sullivan backhanded a pass to Frolov – barreling down the middle – who was foiled by Theodore. I could almost hear a voice...maybe Theodore's..."please, Mommy, make it stop."

The Caps got it back to one again in the third period when a puck squirted out of the right wing corner to Quick’s left. Alex Ovechkin caught the puck, and in one motion wristed it past Quick before he could square himself, and Ovechkin killed the two birds with one puck of getting his 200th career goal and notching his first career goal against the Kings.

The Kings got it back, though, in the last 90 seconds when Kyle Calder and Dustin Brown were allowed to cycle the puck between themselves in the left wing corner. Calder ended up with it, then stepped out unchallenged from Theodore’s right. Taking two whacks at it, Calder managed to slide it past Theodore and close the Kings’ scoring.

With Theodore off for the extra attacker, the Caps made it interesting with just over a minute to play when a wrister from the point by Mike Green was deflected past Quick by Brooks Laich to shave the deficit to one goal. It set up a furious finish for the Caps, but they could not get the equalizer, as the Kings held on for the 5-4 finish.

So…what of it?

- It might be a blessing that the Caps lost this game. Had the Caps actually come back and won, or even forced extra time to get a standings point, after playing their worst hockey of the season in the first 40 minutes (the goal 15 seconds in, notwithstanding), it would have sent a bad karma message, rewarding the Caps for bad behavior. And let’s face it, they stunk on toast.

- It would be easy to criticize the defense for all those free and easy strolls the Kings took down the middle of the ice in the Caps’ end. And, they’d deserve it. But it isn’t as if the forwards were putting up much of a fight keeping Kings from sending those passes in for those breakaways. We might not be an expert on this, but waving a stick isn’t a defense (and neither is sticking it in a guy’s sternum – Shaone Morrisonn, we’re looking at you).

- Six power plays allowed, two of them 5-on-3’s. Caps fans might scratch their heads at some odd officiating (how does David Steckel get a minor for roughing when he’s being mauled by two Kings?), but the Caps didn’t exactly put themselves in a position to do much other than take penalties in too many instances. Penalties resulting from lazy play. Sniff…sniff, sniff. What’s that? Oh, the hairs on the back of Bruce Boudreau’s neck burning while he’s watching this go on.

-- Nicklas Backstrom…3-of-12 on draws in the offensive zone. For a team that has a fair amount of success scoring goals off set plays off faceoffs, that’s not especially helpful. Add to that the fact that Backstrom lost both defensive draws, and we’re wondering if there isn’t some sort of University of Phoenix online class he can take to improve his proficiency (he’s been above 50 percent in three of his last 24 games).

-- On the other end of that, Michal Handzus won 11 of 14 draws in the defensive end for Los Angeles.

-- The Caps took nine of the last ten shots of the game in the last 3:10 of play. Trouble was, the one shot the Kings took, they scored on (Calder).

-- The Caps had two missed shots all night?...two??

-- Penalty-Killing Watch: That's 13 games, and counting, having allowed at least one power play goal. The Caps are 53-for-71 in that span (74.6 percent). Yeesh...

-- Nine goals in this game, and Milan Jurcina isn't on the ice for any of them. Huh...

-- Ovechkin was on the ice for six of them. Trouble was, the score in those instances was 3-3.

-- Ditto, Mike Green.

-- We know, Jeff Schultz will get pounded for his play in other spaces, but he was on the ice for only one Kings goal, the 5-on-3 power play goal in the first period.

-- From the NHL official play-by-play…"WSH #21 LAICH(13), Tip-In, Off. Zone, 64 ft. Assists: #52 GREEN(27); #19 BACKSTROM(42).” A “tip-in” from 64 feet? I don’t know what’s more amazing, the fact that Laich was able to be that good at tipping, that Quick was that asleep in the crease to defend it, or that the official scorer actually typed that in.

It would be hard to say that any Cap played a good game. A few of them played a “desperate” game in the last ten minutes, but all in all, this was a waste. As I was going to the game last night, I was thinking – as a number of Caps fans might have been – that this might be a “let down” game after a nice run against the likes of Boston, Detroit, and New Jersey.

As a season ticket holder, that sort of goes with the package – there will be exhilarating nights, and there will be games that are real dogs (guess which one this ends up under). But for a father and his son who might have driven 75 miles or so to see the Caps for what might be their only time this year, they might not have had much in the way of a memorable experience, whatever the ferocity the Caps showed in the last 90 seconds. It was that ugly a game.

That might not seem fair to players who put it on the line for 82 nights a season, but that’s part of what they signed up for, too. I don’t think these are two points the Caps are going to need to win the Southeast, but there aren’t any throw away games in a season, either. And you had the feeling the Caps just threw this one away. It was a very disappointing night.