A Three Game, TWO-point night: National Semifinals and Caps 4 - Lightning 2

If hockey was sugar, The Peerless would be in a diabetic coma this morning. After watching two national semifinal college championship games last evening, then catching the recorded version of the Caps/Lightning game later, it has been a “hockeypalooza” start to the weekend. And it isn’t over.

But first things first…

It was a bad week for schools who claim green and white as their athletic colors. On Monday, Michigan State was stomped by the University of North Carolina in the NCAA men’s basketball championship game. Last night, both teams sporting green and white – the Bemidji State Beavers and the Vermont Catamounts (Vermont also sporting gold in their uniforms) dropped decisions in the national semifinals of collegiate men’s hockey, Bemidji State falling to Miami (Ohio), 4-1, and Vermont losing on a late goal in a 5-4 Boston University win.

In the first game, it looked like a case of Bemidji State finally running out of gas against a team that could skate with them as no other opponents seemed to be able to do in the tournament, and not having an answer to Miami’s size advantage. What Bemidji State didn’t lack for was support. It looked as if the whole school showed up to support the Beavers. Even though they fell short, it was the sort of thing that make the college version of the sport so appealing.

In the second game, which one might look at as the “upper half” of the draw (Bemidji State and Miami both being four-seeds in their respective regions), Vermont showed no fear in facing the top-ranked Terriers. Despite falling behind 2-0 in the first period, Vermont roared back with three goals in the second in a span of six minutes to take a 3-2 lead. BU scored late in the second to tie the game, which set the table for a great third period. Vermont scored on a power play mid-way through the third and looked in complete control at that point. But the Catamounts took a penalty about a minute after taking the lead, and the momentum turned. BU failed to convert the power play, but Chris Higgins tied the game just after the penalty expired. All that was left was to see who would find the smallest crack in the other’s armor. It came with just under six minutes left as Higgins sent a shot at the Vermont net directly off a clean face off win that was kicked aside by goalie Rob Madore. But Madore couldn’t control the direction of the deflection, and the puck ended up right on the tape of Colin Wilson’s stick. A Hobey Baker finalist is not likely to miss on the sort of opportunity presented to him in that situation, and Wilson didn’t. He stuffed the rebound short side past Madore, and BU was off to fight for its first championship since 1995.

Meanwhile, in Tampa…

The Caps clinched the two-seed in the East with what might be described as a “workmanlike” effort in defeating the Tampa Bay Lightning, 4-2. In a perverse way, this win was encouraging. Setting aside for the moment that Tampa is: a) a bad team, and b) has nothing to play for, the Caps pounded out a win in lunch-pail fashion. It was the kid who, despite hating Brussels sprouts, manages to down each and every one of the little suckers.

Other stuff…

- You ever go to a ball game, and the big bopper in the lineup goes 0-for-5, hitting screaming line drives into everyone’s glove? That was Alex Ovechkin last night. 11 shots on goal (five in the third period), 22 attempts…no goals, no points.

- It was another somewhat troubling night for Sergei Fedorov, who took two minor penalties (to go with the three he took on Tuesday). Of the five minors he has in the last two games, three were for hooking (two of them last night), and one for holding. As much as the putting the Caps a man down, his taking those penalties deprives the Caps of a heady penalty killer and all around force. We’ll call it a mental slump.

- Another encouraging sign. The character actors in this movie took top billing again. David Steckel had a goal (on his only shot) a hit, a blocked shot, and won nine of 12 faceoffs (including seven of eight in the defensive zone). Brooks Laich had a pair of goals. Matt Bradley and Keith Aucoin chipped in assists. It overshadowed Mike Green’s three-point night (1-2-3).

- OK, it was a great diving poke of a pass from Zenon Konopka to Steven Stamkos for the first goal of the game in the first minute. But we weren’t in much of a happy mood the way Tomas Fleischmann more or less waved at Stamkos as he blew by to receive the pass.

- Laich’s two goals were scored from almost in the paint. But they weren’t the only two instances in which he could tell what kind of gum goalie Karri Ramo was chewing. He was in Ramo’s face on a number of other chances that, had Ramo not been quick to cover the puck, would have ended up behind him.

- Jose Theodore was a winner in his 500th career game. He can tie his career high for a season in wins (33) with a win over Florida tomorrow night.

- Each team had five penalties, but the Caps arguably put themselves in greater danger of losing in doing so than did Tampa. Of the five penalties taken by Tampa Bay, two were taken by Matt Smaby, two by Evgeni Artyukhin, and one by David Koci. Combined, Koci and Artykhin had 15:40 in ice time, and Smaby – a defenseman – doesn’t contribute a lot at the offensive end (he had 20-plus minutes of ice time). Meanwhile, of the five penalties the Caps took, two were by Fedorov and one by Ovechkin. The Caps can’t afford those guys being off the ice much for penalties.

- Think coach Bruce Boudreau is evaluating guys? John Erskine had almost seven minutes of ice time in the third period.

- Viktor Kozlov…one shot attempt. One can appreciate the role Kozlov often plays in the offensive zone, lugging the puck into territory to get plays started, but getting something of a threat from his stick might free up other guys, too. Maybe that’s why he got only 11 minutes of ice time.

- And what is it about Sergei Fedorov, “Man of Action.” In his first 11 shifts of the game, play stopped six times either with a penalty or a goal. Of course, the same could be said of linemate Alex Ovechkin, as in his first 11 shifts play stopped seven times for a penalty or a goal.

- We were a little surprised to see Mike Green (28:09) and Alex Ovechkin (23:15) get so much ice time. We thought things might be dialed back a little on those two getting ready for next week. We’ll see what it looks like tomorrow, now that the Caps know where they’ll finish.

- Steven Stamkos, who has put together quite a rookie year after a slow start burdened by unrealistic expectations, set a Tampa Bay rookie record for goals with 22. The record had been held by Brad Richards.

- The win by Washington ties a franchise high (50), and the two points earned in the win gives this edition of the Caps the franchise record for standings points (108). Does that make this the greatest team in Caps history? The Peerless ranks this team – for the moment – third, behind the 1985-1986 team (which held the wins and points records) that was deeper offensively and better defensively, and the 1997-1998 team that finished with a rush and used that momentum to go to the Stanley Cup final.

- Speaking of that 1997-1998 Cup Finals team. That team went 8-2-1 in their last 11 games. If the Caps win tomorrow night in Florida, they could finish their last 11 games, 8-1-2…hmmm.

Only one more to go, then the fun can start. Florida was eliminated from playoff contention last night, so the Caps might either blow the doors off a team that suddenly has nothing to play for but the pride of finishing well, or they can go through the motions looking ahead to next week. We have no clue which scenario will unfold. Isn’t that what makes following this team so, uh…interesting?

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, April 9th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s the last trip to Florida of the year – probably – as the Caps head to Tampa to take on the Lightning tonight in game 81 of the schedule…

"Three to ze fourth powah…"

Professor?

"Three to ze fourth powah…eighty-vun ist three to ze fourth powah."

And this means…what?

"Ze powah of three…for eggzample, ze Caps haff won three games in April. "

So?

"Und Tampa Bay haff lozt three games in April."

OK…is that all?

"Alex Ovechkin hass three hat trrrrricks ziss year."

You’re reaching, Prof.

"Ja, vell…it’s schtill early. "

You keep vehrking…uh, working on that, Professor. As for the game, the Caps have made Tampa their personal scrimmage partner this year. Washington has won all five games played to date by a combined score of 26-12. Perhaps surprisingly, the Caps have not built that margin on the strength of their special teams. Washington is 5-for-23 on the power play against the Lightning this year (21.7 percent – and three of those goals came in the last game, in which the Caps were 3-for-9), while they have killed off 15 of 18 shorthanded situations (83.3 percent).

The overall numbers look like this…

It does not paint a pretty picture for the Lightning, as they rank in the bottom third in the league in every measure except their power play. And, the Lightning have been playing even worse of late. Since March 1st, they have earned only 14 of a possible 36 standings points available to them and have only four wins in the 18 games played since March 1st.

What is especially noteworthy about their record since March 1st is having played in eight extra time games. Not surprisingly, the Lightning have lost six of those eight games. No team has played more extra time games this season than Tampa Bay (23), and no team has a worse winning percentage in those games (.217 on a 5-18 record). Conversely, the Lightning don’t get blown out as much as you might think. They are tied for having the 15th fewest number of three-or-more goal losses. Their 12 such losses are only one more than Pittsburgh and one fewer than…gulp…the Caps.

Individually, Tampa Bay is a team that struggles offensively, especially after you get past the top five scorers. The Lightning have five players with 40 or more points – Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier, Ryan Malone, Vaclav Prospal, and Steven Stamkos. After that, you drop all the way to 19 points to find the sixth leading scorer – defenseman Lukas Krajicek.

And, if the Lightning struggle on offense, they are having health issues as well. Lecavalier and Malone will be out for this one, depriving the Lightning of two of those top-five scorers. Add to that the fact that defensemen Paul Ranger, Andrej Meszaros, Marek Malik, Josef Melichar, Cory Murphy, and Richard Petiot are either out or questionable, and this is a team that is more likely to resemble their AHL affiliate Norfolk Admirals than a real life NHL team.

Looking at the three top scorers for the Lightning who should play this evening, you can’t say Martin St. Louis or Stven Stamkos have bailed on the season. St. Louis is 10-10-20 in 18 games since March 1st, while Stamkos is 9-8-17 in the same number of games (a 77-point pace, not bad for an 19-year old rookie). On the other hand, Vaclav Prospal has been largely absent while still wearing a sweater. In his 18 games since the beginning of March, he is 4-3-7 and has only two points (both goals) in his last 11 games. He is also dead last on the team in plus-minus (-18).

In goal, Tampa Bay has alternated Karri Ramo and Mike McKenna faithfully over the past 11 games. That would mean that McKenna gets the start against the Caps tonight. This would be good news for Caps fans. Since March 1st, McKenna is 2-4-0, 3.85, .884. He’s lost all three of his appearances against the Caps this year with a 5.20 goals against average and a .820 save percentage.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Matt Pettinger

If Vaclav Prospal has the worst plus-minus on the team, Pettinger’s is worse on a per-game basis. He is -15 in only 57 games. He is, though, 4-2-6 in 18 games since the beginning of March, which passes for secondary scoring on this club. He is the 11th leading scorer for the Lightning overall at 6-7-13 (the 11th leading scorer for the Caps is David Steckel at 7-11-18, although Steckel has played in 74 games). Pettinger might be remembered by history in the same way guys are remembered in a photo showing a Julius Erving dunk as they cringe under the basket. It was Pettinger who blocked the original shot from Mike Green just before Green deposited the rebound into the Tampa net to set the new record for consecutive games with a goal by a defenseman. He has only one assist in four career games against the Caps.

Washington: Sergei Fedorov

Fedorov did not have a particularly good game last time out against the Atlanta Thrashers. But he’s had his way over the years against the Lightning – 15-22-37, +7, in 27 career games. He has not, however, registered any of those points against the Lightning this year in the three games he’s played. Nevertheless, he does have points in three of his last four games (3-1-4) and has been over 60 percent wins on faceoffs in an astonishing seven of his last 11 games. It would be nice if he kept that points producing run going, but his contributions are as likely to come in other areas of the score sheet.

The Caps have dominated the Lightning this season largely on the basis of production from the “Young Guns.” Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green, and Alexander Semin are a combined 14-20-34, +24 in the five games played thus far. The 14 goals scored by this quartet amounts to 54 percent of the total goals scored against Tampa Bay this year by the Caps. Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Green have points in each of the five games they have played against the Lightning this year. Semin was held off the scoresheet once in three games.

Prof?...You have any other information on “the power of three” you’d like to share?

"Oh, ja. Ze Caps vill give up three goals tonight, but zey vill score three more… "


Caps 6 – Lightning 3

A TWO-point night: Caps 5 - Lightning 3

The cliché du jour is, “it wasn’t pretty.” And, in fact, the second period – again – was down right ugly. But, to use another cliché, a win is a win, and the Caps get two points for one whether they beat Detroit in the last game of January or Tampa Bay in the last game of March.

The Caps beat the Lightning 5-3, but it was a lot more exciting than it needed to be…

-- The Caps scored three goals in the first period by pounding the net relentlessly, then they…stopped. The score sheet will duly record that the Caps had 16 shots on goal in the first period and 13 in the third – what seems to be little difference – but only three of the 13 shots in the second period were from within 30 feet. Compare that to the first period, when all three of the Caps’ goals were scored from inside that perimeter.

- Evgeny Artyukhin is one big man who can skate (in a straight line, anyway). Geez, he’s a load. But kudos to Mike Green who made the effort to stand him up a couple of times.

- And speaking of Green, he looks more and more like a basketball point guard bringing the puck up the ice – he controls the speed and the pace of the play. But where the analogy breaks down is, point guards can drive to the hoop and create something. When Green takes it all the way in and into the corner or behind the net, nothing generally happens, and he is way out of the play going the other way.

- Matt Smaby had a rough time the last time these teams met, going minus-4 and being on the ice for every even strength goal scored by the Caps. Last night he had as rough a time, although it didn’t show up on the score sheet. It seemed like every Cap was taking a run at the guy. Even Sergei Fedorov recorded both of his hits on Smaby.

- Funniest scene of the evening – Keith Aucoin barking at Artyukhin as the players were going off for a shift change. Artyukhin is 6’5”, 254…Aucoin is 5’9” (maybe), 187.

- What happened to Vincent Lecavalier? That might have been the quietest game he’s played against the Caps since he was a rookie.

- Martin St. Louis was anything but quiet. Nine shots on goal (to lead all players), three takeaways, a goal, and generally being the pest everyone wants to see smeared on the glass.

- Nicklas Backstrom had those two goals, but 14 of 16 in the circle?! Including 5-of-6 against former Cap Jeff Halpern??

- Speaking of that, take away Aucoin’s gaze-averting 1-for-8, and the Caps were 36 up and 18 down on faceoffs.

- Tomas Fleischmann can’t get a break. He was credited with the Caps’ second goal (reviewed to see if it was kicked in), then had it changed to Nicklas Backstrom’s at the intermission. If he’s not having goals disallowed (like on March 12th against the Flyers, for instance), he’s seeing them go to teammates.

- Lost in all this, perhaps, is that Brooks Laich had a three-assist night. That’s his best assist total for any game he’s played with Washington, and he scored more points only once – a two-goal, two-assist night against Minnesota on February 26, 2008.

- Tampa Bay played hard, if really unintelligently. Five minor penalties in the first period almost took them out of the game (the Caps conveniently decided not to play in the second period to let them back in it). Giving a team like the Caps nine power plays is a recipe for catastrophe, and that the Lighting “held” the Caps to four goals with a goalie in net is evidence of their at least competing.

- Brian Pothier…14 minutes, a takeaway, a blocked shot, a goal. This is probably his comfort zone as far as time on ice, and he looked very comfortable in it.

- And from the “you don’t see this in other sports,” Tampa goalie Mike McKenna apologized to Alex Ovechkin after the game for remarks critical of Ovechkin in his 50th goal celebration the last time these teams met. Imagine a situation where the Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills meet, and Terrell Owens meets Tony Romo at midfield after the game and apologizes for accusing Romo of getting together with Jason Witten to draw up secret plays. Yeah, we’ll wait.

- Matt Pettinger – you remember him – dressed last night. You’d hardly know it. He got a gift assist when Martin St. Louis did a spin and shoot move that ricocheted off Tom Poti and past Jose Theodore, but other than that Pettinger’s score sheet was lily white, with nary a mark on it in almost 13 minutes of ice time.

- We look at Oskar Osala and think that this guy is going to be a regular 25-goal scorer in the NHL. It might be that not even Ovechkin has a faster release on his shot than this kid. We didn’t see that in training camp, but he had a couple of opportunities last night when the puck got to him and it was gone in less than the blink of an eye.

- The one time Michael Nylander sticks his nose in there, he’s standing in the paint when a goal is scored (it was disallowed for that reason).

- That makes ten in a row against the Lightning -- Bruce Boudreau has never lost to Tampa Bay – but double that, and it doesn’t make up for blowing a 2-0 lead in the 2003 playoffs. Over those ten games, the Caps have outscored the Lightning 43-22 and have scored at least five goals in each of the last four games in the series.

This one wasn’t one for the scrapbook – except perhaps it being the game in which Ovechkin registered his 100th point for the third time in his career and Brian Pothier scoring his first goal since December 27th, 2007 (against Pittsburgh) – but (another cliché coming) two points is two points. And, it allowed the Caps to crawl over New Jersey into second place in the Eastern Conference only three points behind Boston. All in all, a productive night.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, March 27th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s “Son of Stick,” or is that “Son of Schtick,” as the Caps host the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first meeting of these teams since Alex Ovechkin touched off a furor across North America unseen since, well, maybe ever.

Ovechkin, as you know, celebrated scoring his 50th goal by laying his stick on the ice and “warming” his hands from the heat of the instrument, so hot it was to be the tool used to score that 50th goal. Some folks didn’t like it.

"I took it as an insult, personally…It's embarrassing, this isn't football."

-- Lightning forward Ryan Malone

"[Ovechkin]'s got a free ride. He runs at guys, does this stuff. I'm predicting somebody is going to get him and somebody is going to get him good."

-- Canadian hockey icon and professional grumpy old man, Don Cherry

"I wouldn't have any trouble with somebody [hitting] him right in the noggin. I would have no trouble with that.”

-- Hockey “analyst” and village idiot for hire, Mike Milbury

And those were the things that were fit to print. We have exclusive transcript of a meeting held at Tampa Bay Lightning offices in which feelings for what should happen to Ovechkin were aired. We caution you, the language is not for minor children…

“I want you to get this f*ck where he breathes! I want you to find this nancy-boy Alex Ovechkin, I want him DEAD! I want his teammates DEAD! I want his locker burned to the GROUND! I wanna go there in the middle of the night and I wanna PISS ON HIS ASHES!”

“I'm gonna tell you something. Somebody messes wit me, I'm gonna mess with wit him. Somebody taunts me, I'm gonna say you taunted. Not talk to him for spitting on the ice. Understand? Now, we have done nothing to harm these people but they are taunting us, and what do they do, show me up wit some stick, which dey should not do. To celebrate like a Canadian, no, to harass a peaceful team. I pray to God if I ever scored a goal I'd have a little more self respect. One more thing, you have an all out fight, you wait until the fight is over, one guy is left standing. And that's how you know who won.”

Sounds fairly serious. We had the privilege of witnessing a conversation between a member of the Caps staff and one of the preeminent authorities in law enforcement, Jimmy Malone, late of the Chicago police force. Here’s what transpired in their conversation about retaliation…

Malone: You said you wanted to get the Lightning if they jump Ovechkin. Do you really wanna get them? You see what I'm saying is, what are you prepared to do?

Caps representative: Anything within the rules.

Malone: And then what are you prepared to do? If you open the can on these worms you must be prepared to go all the way. Because they're not gonna give up the fight, until one of you is dead.

Caps representative: We want to beat the Lightning! We don't know how to do it.

Malone: You wanna know how to beat the Lightning? They pull a knife, you pull a gun. They send one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue. That's the Chicago way! And that's how you beat the Lightning. Now do you want to do that? Are you ready to do that? I'm offering you a deal. Do you want this deal?

Caps representative: We have sworn to beat that team with all the rule book powers at our disposal and we will do so.

Malone: Well, the Lord hates a coward. Do you know what a blood oath is?

Caps representative: Yes.

Malone: Good, 'cause you just took one.

It could be an interesting evening. These teams played just eight days ago, and little has changed since we put this together. The teams have played a total of five games between them since that night, and there is only one win in the bunch – Tampa Bay beat Columbus in overtime, 2-1, this past Tuesday. The Caps have lost a pair of games – 4-1 at Carolina and a 3-2 Gimmick loss to Toronto on Tuesday.

But it seems that the game is taking a back seat to the melodrama that is the après-celebration. Now, we learn that the Tampa Bay coaches were contacted by Caps Coach Bruce Boudreau to discuss the matter and presumably put it to rest. Except the boys at TSN didn’t want to let it rest, and Boudreau went off on them.

You’d almost forget there is a game to be played here. What Tampa seems to have found in the three games since they played the Caps is defense. They’ve allowed only six goals in regulation in those games, and the tandem of Karri Romo and Mike McKenna have stopped 99 of 106 shots overall (.936 save percentage). That could spell difficulty for a Caps team that has averaged only 2.42 goals per game this month and has scored more than two goals only four times in 12 games.

On the other hand, Tampa isn’t scoring much either. Since losing to the Caps, 5-2, on 50th Goal Night, the Lightning have scored seven goals in three games, and they have gone to overtime in all of them. In fact, Tampa Bay has played in seven extra time games this month (2-5 record). Since thrashing (can Lightning “thrash,” or is that an Atlanta thing) Calgary 8-6 in the first game of the month, the Lightning have scored 28 goals in 11 games (2.55/game), so it’s not like these two teams are the 1984 Oilers and the 1978 Canadiens at the moment, at least offensively.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Steven Stamkos

The rookie is 2-2-4, +1 in three games since the Caps and Lighting last met. He is 8-7-15 in his last 14 games and has been held off the score sheet only three times in that span. He is becoming a, if not the go-to guy in the Lightning line-up as the season winds down. What he has not had is much success against Washington in his inaugural season. He is 1-0-1, -3 in four games.

Washington: Alexander Semin

Barrels of ink and millions of pixels will be devoted to one Alex in the run-up to this game, but how this Alex does is likely to have a bigger bearing on the outcome. Semin has only one goal in his last eight games (1-7-8, -3), that coming in a four-point effort against Carolina on March 14th. But if there is a team he can turn that around against, Tampa Bay is it. He has 13 goals against the Lightning in 22 career games (13-11-24), including five power play goals and two game winners. He is 1-2-4, +3 in three games against the Lightning this year.

In the end, though, it’s the time of year when a group of guys just has to come together as a team. It’s not just about Alex Ovechkin and his 50th goal and whatever celebration there might have been. It’s about coming together with a common purpose. As one guy put it…

“A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms. Enthusiasms, enthusiasms... What are mine? What draws my admiration? What is that which gives me joy? Hockey! In da Gimmick a man skates alone with the puck. This is the time for what? For individual achievement. There he skates alone. But in the real hockey game, what? Part.. of… a… team. Teamwork... Looks, skates, checks, hustles. Part of one big team. Shoots the puck himself the live-long day, Wayne Gretzky, Gordie Howe, and so on. If his team don't play defense... what is he? You follow me? No one. Sunny day, the stands are full of fans. What does he have to say? I'm goin' out there for myself. But... I get nowhere unless the team wins."

WHACK!!!

Caps 5 – Lightning 2

A TWO-point night: Caps 5 - Lightning 2

Somewhere, Don Cherry is getting CPR.

Alex Ovechkin scored his 50th goal of the season last night in the Capitals’ 5-2 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning, joining Wayne Gretzky and Mike Bossy as players to score 50 or more in three of their first four seasons. But it will be the aftermath that folks will be talking about. After stepping around Matt Pettinger at the Tampa Bay blue line and shooting around Lukas Krajicek and over goalie Mike McKenna’s glove to notch the 50th, Ovechkin laid his stick down in the corner and pantomimed warming himself from the heat of his hot stick.

It was not Ovechkin’s finest moment.

The one thing about Ovechkin’s goal celebrations – those resulting from his own and from teammates’ goals – has been their air of spontaneity. It is what sets his apart from those of touchdown-scorers and sack-masters in the NFL, where everything looks choreographed. They are even different from those in the soccer celebrations Don Cherry famously compared Ovechkin to in that the soccer celebrations have more than their own whiff of shirt discarding choreography to them.

That’s what makes this so disappointing. Ovechkin had been – to this moment – unique, despite Cherry’s rantings. But even Mike Green, who was invited to participate in this theater, declined – “He told me he was going to do it. He wanted me to join in, but there was no way I'd join in on that. I just kind of stood back and let him do what he does."

If one wants to chalk this up to a certain exuberance on the part of a 23-year old setting the bar a little higher on his career achievement track, fine. We can see giving the guy a pass (there are a lot of folks this morning, though, who won’t). But frankly, this one crossed the line. We’re hoping we don’t see anything like it again.

Other stuff…

While Ovechkin was blistering his fingers from the heat of his stick, Mike Green was inching in on a milestone of his own. His two goals gave him 27 for the year. Having reached this mark in 59 games, you’d have to like his chances to get to 30. If he does, he would become the eighth defenseman in league history to reach that mark. It hasn’t been done since the 1992-1993 season, when Capitals’ defenseman Kevin Hatcher netted 34.

It was the first time this season that the Caps failed to score three goals on the Lightning in the first period. They scored two.

Perhaps lost in this was Viktor Kozlov’s getting three assists. It was his first three-point game since December 18th (St. Louis).

And Shaone Morrisonn had a couple of assists. It was his first multi-point game of the year and his first since March 10, 2007 (New York Islanders).

18:43…that was Brian Pothier’s ice time. Any other considerations of statistics in his game are irrelevant.

Nicklas Backstrom won 10 of 13 draws. The 76.9 percent winning percentage was his second-highest of the year (January 27th, 7-of-9 – 77.8% -- against Boston).

With Boyd Gordon out, the other guys did pretty well in the dot…Backstrom, Sergei Fedorov, and David Steckel were a combined 26 up and 12 down (68.4%).

Mike Green led the Caps in hit in this one (four).

Matt Smaby had a tough game for the Lightning. He was on the ice for each of the Caps’ even strength goals.

Once more, every Cap got at least ten minutes of ice time; only three had more than 20.

Marty St. Louis gets the score sheet splatterage award…a goal, three shots, a shot blocked, a shot missed, a hit, a giveaway, a takeaway, a blocked shot, and he lost a faceoff. That’s the Sampler Platter at Red Lobster.

Rick Tocchet made good on his promise to Matt Lashoff, and Lashoff fulfilled it. Lashoff led the Lightning in ice time and in power play ice time. The Lightning did get a power play goal (Steven Stamkos) and Lashoff had a pair of assists.

If Evgeni Artyukhin and Paul Szczechura are going to have more shots on goal (two and three, respectively) than Ryan Malone (one), the Lightning are going to have trouble getting offense…like last night.

3-0, 1.74, .939. Steve who?

Since the Caps lost in regulation at Ottawa on January 20th, they are 8-1-2 on the road.

Boston is 3-5-1 in March. Two of their next three are against New Jersey and at Philadelphia. Maybe catching them isn’t impossible after all.

Jersey has the gauntlet of playing Minnesota, at Boston, at Philadelphia, at Chicago, Carolina, and at the Rangers (where Sean Avery can torment “Fatso”) in their next half dozen. Maybe holding them off isn’t impossible either.

With only nine games left, and only one of those against a team in the top-eight in the East, the struggle now is to stave off boredom. But now, the Capitals have some incentive to push through – they can finish at the head of the class in the East. It doesn’t have the same urgency as last year’s finish, but it could be interesting nonetheless.

In the meantime, this was pretty good, guys…except for that stick thing.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, March 19th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s Thursday in Tampa, and the Caps are visiting the Lightning. For once, it’s not a desperate team the boys are playing…it’s not a good team…

The Caps are doomed.

Just kidding. It’s the Lightning, and as we were visiting their web site, we noticed, there isn’t any evidence of that whole “Hockey Bay, USA” campaign they trotted out to start the year. Nowhere to be found…

“Shhhhhh…not so loud.”

Excuse me…and you are?

“I don’t want to say…I was the genius who came up with that ‘Hockey Bay’ Idea, and I’d like to work in advertising again.”

Oh…I get it. But hey, one bad idea isn’t going to kill a career, is it?

“It’s not the first time.”

Oh?

“Yeah…ever hear of ‘New Coke?’”

Uh-huh…

“Yeah, that was me…and tht McDonalds ‘I’d hit it’ ads?

Uh, yeah?

“Me again…but I swear, I’m going to come up with an idea that’ll make ‘em take notice. Oh! Oh! This is great! I could find that dog…the one who did those Taco Bell commercials. Oh, this is so good…I could dress him in a little hockey helmet and a Marty St. Louis sweater. Oh, they’re gonna love this…I could get my old job back…”

Do you really think...

“…and he could pop up over the top of the bench…just like Marty! And he looks into the camera and says, “¡Yo quiero Lightning Hockeyl!”

Well…while our new friend, who lends a new meaning to “Mad Men” ponders the next great Lightning ad campaign...

If you look up the word “slog” in the dictionary, you will find that it means, “a long, tiring walk or march.” You might add “skate” to that, and you might find a team picture of the Lightning, too. It’s been that kind of season for the Bolts. March has been just the latest installment of it. Tampa Bay is 3-2-3 for the month, and although it is probably early to be mentioning it, it represents their first “Over-.500” month of the season. As for the season, here is how their numbers play out…

It certainly has been a month of highs and lows. On their way to being outscored for March by 33-28, the Lightning have had a game in which they scored eight goals (an 8-6 win over Calgary to start the month), and they’ve had one in which they gave up nine (a 9-3 loss to Carolina). It has not been a team that has had an ability to win the close, low scoring game this month. In each of their three wins, the Lightning have scored at least four goals. In each of their five losses, they’ve scored three or fewer.

Special teams have been something of an adventure this month for Tampa Bay. While the power play has sped along at a 31.2 percent clip (10-for-32), the penalty killers have spent their time giving it all back by killing off only 24 of 33 shorthanded situations (72.7 percent).

The last time these teams met – on Valentine’s Day – the Caps’ Mike Green set a record for defensemen for consecutive games with at least one goal. In that 5-1 loss to Washington, Ryan Malone scored the only goal for Tampa Bay. Since then, Malone is 5-4-9, +1. It’s about what you’d expect, given the pace at which he’s scored goals and points over his career, but perhaps not exactly the production you’d expect for a guy pulling down $4.5 million this year (and every year through 2014-15). He’s had a similar rate of production against the Caps for his career – 5-7-12, +5, in 18 career games. He has a pair of goals in three games against the Caps as a member of the Lightning.

Steven Stamkos might be turning a corner and finally getting it. The number one overall pick in last summer’s entry draft has struggled for long stretches this year as he serves his apprenticeship rookie year, but in March he is 3-5-8, -3, in eight games. The plus-minus is still a problem (he is minus-12 for the year), but his offensive production does seem to have picked up. He has not, however, registered any points against the Caps in three games this year. And, yes, he is minus-3, too.

Jeff Halpern didn’t get traded, leaving him to toil in relative obscurity on Florida’s Gulf Coast. It’s been a difficult year for the former Cap. He missed the first 30 games of the season to a knee injury, and it hasn’t been a year for the ages since his return. At 4-8-13 through 40 games, he’s on a pace to roughly match his first year in Dallas, which wasn’t one for the yearbook, either (8-17-25). In five career games against his old team, he is 1-1-2, +4. That includes an assist and a minus-3 in two games this year with Tampa Bay.

On defense, Tampa Bay has dressed almost as many players as teams have dressed on their entire roster. 16 defensemen have dressed for the Lightning, and one thing can be said of the lot. There are no answers to the Lightning’s problems on defense in this group. Not in the near term, anyway. Defense? No defenseman who has played more than 20 games is better than a minus-3.
But the Lightning do have a defenseman with a plus-rating (two, actually). Richard Petiot, he of the Petiot-for-Kolzig-Heward-Rogers-a draft pick-a bushel of oranges-a case of sun screen-and four tickets to Saw VI (due out in May 2009) trade, has played four games for the Lightning and has compiled two assists and a plus-3 rating. That could change considerably this evening.

The Lightning also have dressed five goaltenders this year (do you get the feeling this year has been one long audition for extras in a “Saw” movie?). Mike Smith was the number one goalie for most of the year, but he’s been out since January 30th after a concussion caught up with him. Karri Ramo has assumed the duties of shooting gallery target number one goalie. He’s been the goalie of record in 13 of 20 games since Smith went out. He is described as uncommonly quick. Well, he hasn’t been quick enough to avoid a 3-6-4 record or allowing 3.42 goals-per-60 minutes with a .903 save percentage since taking over.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Matt Lashoff

Lashoff came to the Lightning from Boston in the Mark Recchi trade. Coach Rick Tocchet is on record as stating that the power play quarterbacking duties will be his. For his part, Lashoff says, "...it's an opportunity for me to step up and come to the table and bring what I can bring. It's a part of the game that is an asset to me, my offensive ability. I have to take advantage of it." Now that, dear reader, is a fine example of the Ebby Calvin LaLoosh school of clichés. Think he’s up to the task? He has one point in 17 games this year and eight points in 47 career games. And, he took a gash on the leg in a game on February 28th that took 30 stitches to close. You can cease to wonder why Tampa is not a contender this year.

Washington: Sergei Fedorov

Fedorov had a bug earlier in the month that kept him out of a couple of games, but he looked pretty good against Florida the other night. He seems always to look good against the Bolts. In 25 career games, he is 15-22-37, +9, with five power play goals. He’s been a part of the F Street or the F-Bomb, or the Fe-Fi-Fo, or whatever F-related name you want to call it line with Tomas Flesichmann and Eric Fehr. It isn’t a bad line in concept. Flesichmann is a playmaker, Fedorov can be a playmaker or a scorer, Fehr is (we hope) a finisher. Against this defense, they should get opportunities to pad Fedorov’s career stats against the Lightning.

Tampa Bay has four defensemen who are likely to be out: Paul Ranger, Andrej Meszaros, Marek Malik, and Cory Murphy. That’s 1,330 games of NHL experience on the bench. Guys like Lashoff and Petiot are being thrown into the deep end of the pool, and tonight they will be in the really deep water against the Caps. On paper, the Lightning shouldn’t be within three goals of the Caps, even playing at home. But Tampa can score – Vincent Lecavalier and professional irritant Martin St. Louis still toil for this team. It could be a high scoring game, which might not be to Coach Bruce Boudreau’s liking, but it could be entertaining for folks watching on TV.

Caps 7 – Lightning 4

A TWO-point night: Caps 5 - Lightning 1

Mike Green scored a goal.

Green’s goal – the eighth consecutive game in which he scored a goal – broke the record for defensemen in the NHL held by Mike O’Connell, who did the trick in seven straight games for the Boston Bruins in the 1983-1984 season. It was one of five the Caps would score – five different players doing the deed – in a 5-1 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning at St. Petersburg Times Arena in Tampa.

Eight games, ten goals, seven assists, 17 points, plus-10. You want a framework for comparison? The Tampa Bay Lighting defensemen who took the ice tonight – for the entire season – have only six goals among them. And what a February he’s had so far. Tonight was the first time in six games Green failed to register a multi-point game. Nevertheless, he is 8-6-14, +8 in six games this month. He could probably take the rest of the month off and be a finalist for player of the month.




But as the team is not Alex Ovechkin and the Ovechkinettes it isn’t Mike Green and the Greenies, either. Tonight marked the debut of Michal Neuvirth in the Capitals’ net, and he turned in a performance that might have folks going “wow,” but not for Green’s record-setting performance. Neuvirth flashed more leather than you’d see at a biker bar, gloving shot after shot from Lightning sticks. He might have had the single most important play of the game.

With the Caps leading 1-0 on an Alexander Semin goal, Mark Malone finished a check on Boyd Gordon at the players’ bench. The puck squirted into the middle, where David Steckel got a stick on it, but couldn’t control it. Martin St. Louis curled in and scooped the puck down the ice to Vincent Lecavalier breaking free. Lecavalier skated in alone on Neuvirth and tried to snap the puck over the goalie’s left shoulder. Neuvirth got the glove up in time to snare the puck and keep the lead at one. If Tampa scores there, the game might have been a lot more competitive than it turned out to be.

After that, the Caps abused Tampa’s goalie – Mike McKenna – to the tune of an additional two goals in the first period, giving them three on 12 shots and ending McKenna’s evening an hour and a half before he expected it to end.

Green’s goal would come in the sixth minute of the second period after his initial shot was blocked – oddly enough by former Cap Matt Pettinger. The puck popped into the air and dropped into the low slot, where Green had another chance to swipe at it. He took advantage of the second opportunity, flicking the puck past defenseman Matt Smaby and goalie Karri Ramo for the record.

Eric Fehr closed the scoring off of a no-look feed from behind the Tampa net by Tomas Fleischmann, who took the puck away from Ramo – caught in the no-man’s land outside the Trapezoid of Safety, where he had to pass on playing the puck – then occupied a pair of Tampa defenders as he was buying time to make the pass.

It was a clinical dissection of the Lightning by the Caps…

-- As noted, five different players had goals, including the big guys – Ovechkin, Semin, and Green. Nine different players had points.

-- Alexander Semin was 1-2-3 for the night. That’s 49 points in 37 games, which over an 82-game season would result in 109 points. He’s the big scorer in this league no one talks about.

-- The Caps have four players on a better than point-a-game pace: Ovechkin, Semin, Green, and Nicklas Backstrom. How many Caps teams in franchise history have had four or more players averaging a point a game or more (at least 50 games played)?... One – the 1985-1986 team had five (Dave Christian, Mike Gartner, Craig Laughlin, Bengt Gustafsson, and Alan Haworth).

-- Obviously, we were not in the arena, but we could swear we could hear conversations on the Caps bench… the Tampa crowd was that quiet.

-- Did Tampa Bay give up after two periods? Well, they had one shot in the first 15:30 of the third period, and that one came from 136 feet more than 11 minutes into the period (Lecavalier).

-- Did Shaone Morrison play his best game of the season? It’d be hard to find a better one. He was rewarded with the second highest amount of ice time for the Caps (20:37). And it seems his pairing with Mike Green still works (or at least works again).

-- Speaking of ice time, the four goals in two periods allowed Coach Boudreau to distribute ice time evenly – a big deal since the Caps play at 5:00 tomorrow against Florida. Ovechkin who averages almost 23 minutes a game, skated for 17:32. Green, who averages 25:35, skated for 23:33. Semin and Backstrom both played a minute or more less than they average. Donald Brashear, who averages only 8:36, skated for 11:05.

-- All of a sudden, Eric Fehr is a scorer. The goal tonight makes five in six games. Over that span, he’s 5-2-7, +5. He led the team in shots on goal tonight (six).

-- It was equal opportunity night for the Lightning… 12 players finished on the minus-side of the ledger. 13 different skaters were on the ice for Caps goals. Matt Smaby was on for the first four of them. The only Lightning player to finish on the plus side?... Steve Eminger.

-- Shaone Morrisonn’s goal was his second this year. If he scores another, it matches a career high.

-- How many times will Ovechkin and Green go in on a goalie, two-on-none, and not so much as get a shot on goal? It was like watching Earvin Johnson and James Worthy going two-on-none on a fast break. Pass-pass-pass-pass-pass… except the Lakers usually scored on theirs.

-- It’s hard to imagine that the size of the numerals on Evgeny Artyukhin’s jersey are the same size as the numerals on Martin St. Louis’ jersey. I’m half-expecting that Artyukhin should wear a third digit on the back of his jersey to fill up the space. He’s a big, big guy.

-- Three power plays to kill off (they were successful on all of them) was the fewest such situations the Caps have faced since killing all three in a 2-1 win over the Rangers on January 3rd. The Caps are 13-2-0 when facing three power plays or fewer.

-- How many teams with Stanley Cup aspirations have two goaltenders dress for their NHL debuts (not including Brett Leonhardt) in a season, let alone have them go 3-0-0, 1.33, .958?

-- The Caps started the year 4-8-2 on the road. Since then, they are 9-4-2, and tonight they finally got over the .500 mark (13-12-4).

If you’re looking for something bad to say about the game, it might be, “geez, why can’t they do this every night?” Part of it is the competition – Tampa has a poor season record and have struggled some in their last half dozen games – but the Caps very often play down to this level of opponent. It might have been the fact that they were mindful of a rookie in goal, it might have been wanting to play well in front of their fathers, many of them accompanying the team on the Florida trip. In any case, the Caps played efficiently and effectively. They got goals from the guys who are supposed to score them, assists from the guys supposed to get them, and they got saves when they needed them from the rookie. Congratulations to Mike Green and Michal Neuvirth on their big nights.

Just don’t forget there’s another game to play tomorrow.

Great job, boys.

photos: AP

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, February 14th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s February 14th, and we all know what that means…

That’s right, on this date in 1896, Winnipeg defeated Montreal, 2-0, in the first successful challenge to the holder of the Stanley Cup.

We’re not making this up. And neither are we making up these holiday specials…

...a Richmond Renegades (ECHL) '00-'01 Ryan Van Buskirk St. Valentine's Day jersey

…Missouri River Otters Valentines Day Jersey, circa 2005

…Grand Rapids Griffins romance, 2007 version

…then there is the Seattle Thunderbirds version

…and you’d have to bet on there being a Las Vegas Thunder jersey in here somewhere.

But there is real hockey to be played this evening, and the Caps are visiting the Tampa Bay Lightning. And for those of you who have not been paying attention since the last time these clubs met, on New Years Day, the Lightning have become respectable. Their 9-8-1 record since losing to the Caps, 7-4, on January 1st is better than Pittsburgh (8-9-1), the New York Rangers (7-6-3), and Montreal (9-10-0) over the same period, to name three clubs you might not have thought of.

It might be too late for the Lightning, though, as they still trail eighth-place Buffalo by 15 points with 27 games to play. The hole they dug for themselves is evident in their numbers…


What the numbers show is that while Tampa is certainly not a very good team, neither are they awful, and that is the danger for the Caps (as it seems to be a lot with such teams).

What has led to a more successful 2009 portion of the regular season for the Lightning is their power play. Since their loss to the Caps, the Lightning have converted 16 of 73 power play opportunities (21.9 percent). That power play has accounted for more than 30 percent of the Lightning’s total goals in that time.

Unfortunately for the Lightning, how that power play goes seems to dictate their results. And that is where the Caps might be catching a break tonight. The Lightning are 2-4-1 in their last seven games, during which they have gone 5-for-34 on the power play (14.7 percent). More to the point, in games they have lost, they are 2-for-26 (7.7 percent). If the Caps can stay out of the box, it will help, but this is a power play that is struggling in any case at the moment.

Oddly enough, their penalty killing has been rather sturdy in the 2-4-1 streak they are on. In those games, the Lightning have not allowed more than one power play goal in any game and have killed 27 of 31 shorthanded situations (87.1 percent).

For Tampa Bay, though, the name might be less “Lightning” and more “Clearance Sale.” Players such as Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier, and Vaclav Prospal have been mentioned in possible trades with less than three weeks to the trading deadline. One might expect Mark Recchi’s name to be included in such talk as well, and that would account for the top four scorers on this team. All of them have played in every Lightning game this year, and all of them seem to be playing, if not with an eye toward dragging the Lightning out of the nether reaches of the standings, then with an eye toward improving their attractiveness to potential trade suitors. Here are their results in the 19 games played in 2009:


If the Lightning are looking forward, then the players at the top of the list to focus on would be Ryan Malone and Steven Stamkos. Both had rocky starts to their seasons, but have put together decent 2009 portions to their seasons. Malone has ten goals in 19 games (just don’t look for helpers – he has but one assist), and Stamkos is 3-5-8, +3 in 16 games, which would not be such a bad pace for a 2008 draftee, except for all the hype in Tampa over his selection.

If Tampa has a glaring problem, it’s on the blue line. The Lightning have dressed 14 defensemen this year. Ten of them have played in at least 10 games (none have played in all 55 games). It’s been a revolving door. At the top of the heap – and this might speak volumes as to the problem – is former Cap Steve Eminger. In 53 games, Eminger leads the defense in goals (four…compared to 21 for Washington’s Mike Green), assists (18…compared to Green’s 28), and points (22…49 for Green).

As a group, the defense has a total of 27 power play points (5-22-27). Green has 24 by himself (the rest of the Caps’ defense has six, and that might be an issue for another discussion).

Things are not a lot better for the Lightning in goal. Five goaltenders have dressed for the Lightning this year, and former Cap Olaf Kolzig is done for the year with a Marty Brodeur (arm injury). Mike Smith has been as strong as can be in goal, given the circumstances, going 14-18-9, 2.62, .916, and two shutouts. Trouble is, he’s out. He had been playing through concussion symptoms for about six weeks before he informed the club, the original injury suspected to be the result of taking a shot off his mask against Edmonton on January 4th.

Mike McKenna will get the start. He’ll be making his first career start against the Caps, but he is 2-1-1, 2.21, .918 in five games so far this year.

Tampa will come into the game nicked up. In addition to Smith’s absence, Martin St. Louis was excused from practice yesterday for not feeling well. A number of other Lightning players – Recchi, Gary Roberts, Matt Smaby, and Cory Murphy – were excused from practice for what Lightning beat writer Damian Cristodero refers to as “body maintenance.”

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Mike McKenna

The Caps have scored 50 goals in the last 13 games they’ve played against Tampa Bay (3.85 per game). What’s more, in the last six games (4-1-1) Washington has scored 27 goals (4.50 per game), has scored fewer than four goals only once, and is 8-for-22 on the power play (36.4 percent). The whole Tampa Bay defense will have its work cut out for them in this one, but McKenna is the last, best hope to keep the Caps from turning the scoreboard into a pinball machine.

Washington: Michal Neuvirth

We’re betting Neuvirth gets his first career start against the Lightning tonight. His overall statistics at Hershey are not especially impressive – 4-3-2, 3.03, .890 – but in his last five games he was 2-1-2, 2.33, .917.

This could be one of those games that constitute goaltender abuse. The Lightning are catching the Caps as Washington is in the midst of one of their goal-scoring binges. The Caps could be starting a rookie goalie in his first NHL start. The subtext to this is Mike Green, who will be trying to set a modern record for defensemen in netting a goal in his eighth consecutive game.

He’ll do it, and he certainly won’t be alone. That January 1st score looks mighty tempting as a prognostication for this one…

Caps 7 – Lightning 4

"There's a lot of doubt about my future..."

Olaf Kolzig's season is over in Tampa Bay. The St. Petersburg Times has the news from Tampa...

"Lightning backup Olie Kolzig will have surgery on Saturday to repair a ruptured distal biceps tendon in his left forearm. The surgery will be performed in Washington by orthopedist Ben Shaffer, a Capitals team physician who treated Kolzig when he played in Washington. Lightning head trainer Tommy Mulligan said Kolzig will be out three to four months. Unless Tampa Bay makes the playoffs, his season is over. It is unclear how this will affect the 17-year veteran's career. Kolzig spoke during Wednesday's practice and said he will not make any decisions about his future until the summer. He admitted, however, 'In my mind, there's a lot of doubt for my future as far as hockey goes.'"

If this is the end of Kolzig's NHL career, he has compiled an impressive body of work:

303 wins (301 with Washington, 21st in NHL history)

2.71 GAA/.906 save percentage

2.14 playoff GAA (16th all time)/.927 playoff save percentage

35 shutouts (tied for 37th in NHL history)

6 playoff shutouts

One hopes Kolzig can return from this to play another season and retire on his own terms, but this news -- and his comments -- is not good news in that regard.

A TWO-point night: Caps 7 -- Lightning 4

“Move your feet.”

It is something coaches are always telling their players to do to keep in the play, but it was something 18,000 fans, 39 players, and six coaches were silently imploring Jamie Heward to do as he lay on the ice after a hit by Alex Ovechkin early in the third period of tonight’s 7-4 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Ovechkin has had bigger hits, but on this one, Heward had his head turned and struck the glass awkwardly. He was face-down on the ice for almost ten minutes as emergency medical personnel attended to him and took him from the ice on a stretcher. The initial report after the game was that Heward sustained a concussion. The Lightning reported that Heward was able to move his extremities.

Lost in all of that was that there was a game played -- a 7-4 win for the Caps. It seems as if the first goal of the game was scored in 2006, not the first day of 2009. Sean Collins’ first as an NHLer came on a shot that was a harbinger of a ghastly night goalie Mike Smith would have as the puck squirted through his pads.

By the time Ovechkin would put the Lightning out of their misery with his 26th goal at the 18:14 mark of the third period…

- Seven different Caps has goals.

- 11 different Caps had points.

- Every skater would have at least one shot on goal except Shaone Morrisonn (at least he attempted a couple, one blocked and one missed).

- Nicklas Backstrom would have another two assists – that makes 33 (fifth in the league), and he has climbed into a tie for sixth in total scoring.

- Ovechkin would have three points (1-2-3) to take over second in the league scoring rankings.

- Matt Bradley had a two-point night (1-1-2), his first since getting three in the 10-2 win over Boston last March 3rd.

- Boyd Gordon had a two-point night (1-1-2), his first since a two-point night against Edmonton last January 17th.

- 35 shots on goal and no Caps with more than four (Ovechkin, Brooks Laich). That’s the kind of balance that keeps goalies looking around to see where the puck is coming from next.

- Alexandre Giroux was a plus-3. Whoever said 90 percent of life is showing up was onto something.

- The Lecavalier-St. Louis-Prospal line was 2-5-7 for the Lightning. They also finished a combined minus-3. Things happened when they were on the ice… and that’s not all a good thing for Tampa Bay.

- Eleven goals… none of them on the power play.

Tonight’s score sheet buffet award goes to Ovechkin… one goal, two assists, three points, a penalty taken, four shots, four shots blocked, one shot missed, three hits, a giveaway, a takeaway, two blocked shots, and he won his only faceoff. Pace yourself, big guy.

Note to Coach Tocchet… take Mike Smith’s stick away from him. Nothing good happened when he used it tonight.

Players have bad games, so do referees. Mark Joannette had a brutal game in the striped shirt. He blew the sweep check on Adam Hall by Mike Green, awarding Hall a penalty shot. He missed Mark Recchi’s goal, too. Everyone in the arena, including the folks at the Papa John’s stand outside of Section 403 knew it was in.

Did we mention Mike Smith had a bad night? “Bad” doesn’t cover it. I think the adjective we used above was “ghastly.” That’s closer to it. The first goal was brutal – a shot he had a clean look at off the stick of Sean Collins that he just whiffed on. Then, from behind the net he played the puck too hard to Marek Malik, who couldn’t collect the pass, and before Smith could get back in front of the cage – where goaltenders generally do their best work – Matt Bradley slam dunked the puck home 11 seconds after Ryan Malone had cut the Washington lead to 3-2.

He wasn’t done yet… wandering off into the corner to collect the puck, he had the curious idea that sending the puck up the middle would be a good thing. First, that’s not generally a good idea when: a) you are the goaltender, and b) you are 30 feet from your crease. It is made worse if you then shank the pass, which is what he then did, putting the puck on Boyd Gordon’s stick. He could have put it on Jeff Gordon’s stick or Gordon Lightfoot’s stick, and what happened next would have occurred. But Boyd Gordon is a professional hockey player, and even for one with as thin an offensive resume in the NHL as Gordon (Boyd, not Jeff or Lightfoot), he knew what to do, and that was to send it smack dab into the heart of the net before a leaping Smith – doing a passable Bobby Orr “we win the Cup” leap – could get back to the net. When Ovechkin scored the Caps’ seventh goal between Smith’s legs, you just wanted the ref to call the fight.

Twice Tampa Bay climed back to within a goal, and twice they allowed a goal less than 30 seconds after doing so. If Rick Tocchet had hair, he’d have been pulling it out on the bench. Speaking of which…think Tampa Bay misses Dan Boyle on the blue line? Yeah, he might have been and still is an offensive specialist, but he’s also better than any defenseman the Lightning had tonight in his own end.

How great was it to see Chris Clark get off the schneid? He went 24 games without a goal since getting one on November 28th, 2007.

As for the Caps, it’s not as if they played a good game here, at least not as much as having scored seven goals suggests. They took advantage of what Tampa Bay gave them, and the Lightning certainly were in a giving mood. But the Caps let the Lecavalier line run around too much and too freely. They weren’t giving Brent Johnson much of a chance out there. The whole defensive group had a rough time – all of them were on the ice for at least one Tampa Bay goal (Morrisonn and Collins for two). The forwards seemed to be a little too interested in running back into the Lightning end from time to time and looked a little too indifferent in the defensive end. Against teams whose goaltenders don’t give away goals like stocking stuffers, that could have made for an unhappy finish.

But, it’s two points, which is the way one wants to start the year. It was the Caps’ biggest offensive output since that 10-2 win over Boston last March 3rd. We’ll leave out the fact that it was the first time Brent Johnson allowed as many as four goals on Verizon Center ice since March 3, 2007. We’ll prefer to ponder that the Caps are 32-6-3 on home ice since January 1, 2008, and that there are 23 more games on home ice to play. The first of them will be Saturday against the Rangers, and that will be a step up of a couple of weight classes in opposition. But for now, tonight – good job, boys.

And get back on the ice soon, Jamie.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lighting, New Years Day 2009

The Peerless Prognsoticator is ON THE AIR!!!

And a Happy New Year to all of you on this fine first morning of 2009…


“hey…you wanna keep it down?...”

Well, if it isn’t 2008…out a little late last night, were we?

“wouldn’t you be?...I mean, what a year…we had Rock the Red, that Ovechkin thing, Bruuuu –urp- uuuuuuuuce…”

Yes, it was quite a year. But tell, me Two – can I call you “Two?”

“…you could call me a –urp— cab , if you like.”

Good one…but tell me, what does the old year do on New Years Eve?

“do I really have to do this, this early in the morning?”

Our readers would really like to know…

“OK…well, after we put the diaper on 2009 to get him ready for the ball-drop -- and isn't THAT a whole lotta laughs -- we head out on a bar crawl with all the other old years gone by.”

Aren’t some of those years, well, pretty old?

“Some of look a lot older than our years…take 2004, for example…he looks positively ancient, but then again, you saw the Caps that year…then there was the lockout to end the year…it aged him terribly.”

And 2005?

“not a wrinkle…the lockout ended, Ovechkin arrived…he still looks like he could be there for the ball-drop.”

So you guys had a pretty good time, I take it.

“what I remember was pretty good…but I got left with the check, since I’m the new guy.”

What you remember?

“yeah…well, it’s all kind of a blur…all I remember is 2000 hitting on all the women with some tired line about 'why NOT two-K, baby?'”

Well, we’ll let 2008 sleep it off…he’s earned it. And that brings us to today’s game in which the Caps host the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Lightning come into this game with an awful record, but they’ve been on something of a roll of late. They have earned points in their last four games (3-0-1) , their longest such streak this season and longest since a three game winning streak to close October and open November. Their numbers don't suggest a great team in the making, though...





And, despite the buying frenzy over the summer that netted Tampa Bay every free agent forward in North America that wasn’t playing basketball, they’ve done with defense in these last four games. They’ve allowed only seven goals in the hockey portion of the contests (they had a Gimmick loss to Montreal in their last game this past Tuesday) and shutout the mighty Penguins in Pittsburgh (although the Pens are playing lately like a team intent on playing themselves out of a playoff berth).

The defensive performance begins with the goaltender – Mike Smith. Despite an 8-12-9 record, Smith has more than respectable numbers otherwise – a 2.42 GAA, .923 save percentage, and a pair of shutouts. Smith was not the goaltender in the Lightning’s . In fact, Smith has only faced the Caps once in his career, and that was as a member of the Dallas Stars on the last day of November 2006. It was not memorable… he allowed four goals on ten shots in 40 minutes of work in a 4-3 loss, a game perhaps more memorable for the ugly cut to his face received by Jamie Heward thanks to the skate of Mike Modano.

If Smith isn’t given the nod by coach Rick Tocchet, the Caps might get a chance to face Olaf Kolzig once more… well, no. He’s out with an “upper body” injury. That leaves the backup duty to Karri Romo, and that might be where he is best kept – he has an 0-2-1, 3.30, .903 career record against the Caps.

Actually, for a season that has been as frustrating as that which the Lightning have endured so far, there is optimism down in Florida. Witness this morning’s column by Brant James of the St. Petersburg Times…

“They were woeful from the outset. So woeful their coach was fired by mid November. They didn't earn their 30th point until the 36th game of the season.

“But they won 28 of their final 46 games (including 11 of their last 12) and made the playoffs.

“Recollections of the last season's Capitals should seem familiar, and be a comfort, to the Lightning as it returns to the Verizon Center to take on Washington tonight.

“The point to be taken from it: The Lightning's season isn't necessarily over.”

Well, what tools are the Lighting bringing to the 2009 portion of their season to try to repeat what the Caps accomplished last season?

Well, there are, of course, Martin St. Louis and Vincent Lecavalier – the leading scorers for the Lightning and players with a history of success against the Caps. St. Louis is 17-25-42, with three power play and two game-winning goals (not including his series winning goal in the 2003 playoffs) in 45 career games against the Caps. Lecavalier is 24-27-51, with seven power play markers and two game winners in 53 games against the Caps. However, St. Louis is on a pace for 73 points, which would be another drop in his production from his career high of 102 points two years ago (he had 83 last year). Lecavalier is on a pace for 68 points, which reflects a similar trend – he has his career high in points two years ago (108), but dropped to 92 last year. Should he finish with 68 points, it would be his lowest total since 2003-2004.

After that, things get grim quickly for the Lightning, if you’re looking at their numbers. Mark Recchi is the third leading scorer on the roster (8-14-22), but he is a -15 for the year (worst on the roster and better than only six players in the entire league). He has been on a bit of a run of late with a four game points streak that was broken in Tuesday’s game against Montreal. He’s made a career of playing the Caps, though – 46-61-107, +16 in 91 career games. Unfortunately for Tampa fans, that record was compiled primarily in sweaters of orange and black, and black and gold, not one with a Lightning bolt on it.

If there has been a pleasant surprise for Tampa Bay, it is Steve Eminger. The former Cap leads all defensemen and is sixth on the team in scoring. His 2-13-15 line already challenges his career scoring total (5-13-18 in 2005-2006 with the Caps). He’s third on the team in plus-minus (plus-4) and is fourth in ice time. Seems he’s found a home.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Ryan Malone

After suffering upper and lower body injuries that have caused him to miss nine games, and a slow start that had him with three assists in his first 14 games, Malone is now on a pace to match his career best scoring total (51 points) set with Pittsburgh last year. In his last 13 games, the left winger is 5-11-16, including a four-point night (1-3-4, +4) against Florida on December 27th. Malone has had fair success against the Caps in the past (3-7-10, +6 in 16 career games), and if he can get some crooked numbers put up on the score sheet, it could be a difficult night for the Caps.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

Alex Ovechkin has abused the Lightning quite a bit in his short career (15-14-29 in 25 games). But a lot of that was done on his own. Now, he has Nicklas Backstrom setting up plays, and Backstrom is on fire. Since registering an assist against the Rangers on November 8th, the second-year center is 11-27-38 and has climbed to second on the team in scoring and into a tie with Ryan Getzlaf for ninth in the league. His overall scoring puts him on a pace to finish with 91 points, but his recent turbocharged pace is putting him on a pace, should he continue it for the rest of the season, for 107 points. Backstrom hasn’t had extraordinary success against the Lightning in his brief career (0-4-4 in nine games), but it hardly seems to matter who he’s playing against these days. He’s been deadly on the power play, with seven man-advantage goals in his last 20 games. Wind him up, watch him go.

2008 was a big step up for the Caps, and 2009 affords the young team with an opportunity to take another big step toward a Stanley Cup. Part of that is beating teams they should beat, and the Lightning is just such a team. It’ll be a good start to 2009…

Caps 5 – Lightning 1

Maybe it wasn't Melrose?

The season's first four-goal game goes to...



That's right, Dainius Zubrus tied a New Jersey Devils team record and set a personal best by scoring four in the Devils' 7-3 win over Tampa Bay today. Today's result puts it in the top ten goal-scoring months of his career.





The post-game Lightning analysis was short and succinct...

Coach Rick Tocchet..."Pretty bad effort...A dud."

Goalie Olaf Kolzig..."I definitely needed to be better" (he gave up five goals on 28 shots...his teammates had really good looks at them)

Martin St. Louis..."We take a huge step back...It's really disappointing." (St. Louis scored his 500th point as a Lightning player in this one)

And this on the day the Lightning debuted their third jerseys. They might want to make an alteration...

Melrose Fired, Peerless Translates Press Release

Barry Melrose was relieved of his duties as head coach of the Tampa Bay Lightning today. As is the custom with such things, the Lightning released a statement about the firing and the selection of a replacement, former associate coach Rick Tocchet. Consider this translation of the highlights a public service...

“This was a tough decision to make. Barry is a good man and we have a great deal of respect for him. We wish him nothing but success."

Translation: "We'd have done this a month ago, but it would have really made Oren, Len, and me look like a bunch of boobs."

"However, the results were unacceptable and the players have to understand that we need to be better. Hopefully this change helps push them."

Translation: "Hey, we can't fire the players. We're in hock up to our eyeballs to pay these losers. We'll just cross our fingers they can win a few games by accident."

“As for Rick Tocchet, we think this is a great opportunity for him and we believe he’s the type of coach who can take the team to the next level. Our players have a great deal of respect for him.”

Translation: "Scotty Bowman wasn't available."

photo: Dirk Shadd/St. Petersburg Times

A TWO-point night: Caps 4 - Lightning 2

I love it when a good prognostication comes together.

Let’s get this out of the way right off the bat. The Caps played about eight minutes of superior hockey tonight. The rest was, well…not. But it was good enough for a 4-2 win over Tampa Bay in Olaf Kolzig’s return to Verizon Center.

Perhaps it was the circumstances – the subplots to this game and all (Kolzig’s return, Alex Ovechkin’s goal drought, Barry Melrose behind the Lightning bench being a walking fire hazard with his mulletized look…) – and perhaps it was as Coach Bruce Boudreau alluded to after the game that it is very difficult to assemble three great periods of hockey (he suggested Melrose probably read the Lightning the riot act at the first intermission – we agree – which might have inspired the Lightning to actually look as if they cared in the second period). But for whatever reason, the Caps looked as if they could beat anyone in those eight minutes in the first period. They looked a little too ripe for the plucking in the other 52 minutes. Oh, shoot, maybe we’re just being picky.

OK, that’s out of the way. And having said that, it was a night of firsts…

-- Kolzig’s first game back in a visitors’ uniform…Steve Eminger’s too. Matt Pettinger has to wait; he was scratched for this one.

-- Eric Fehr’s first goal of the year and first hard hat for his effort.

-- Alex Ovechkin’s first goal in a month (30 days, to be precise)

-- Tom Poti’s first “goals-in-consecutive-games” streak with the Caps

-- Brent Johnson’s first “first-star-in-consecutive-games” streak with the Caps

You could say that the Caps did it with balance, and you’d be right. Eleven different players had points on the four goals, Ovechkin the only one with two, and 14 of the 18 skaters were on the plus side of the ledger (the other four being even).

But the “BOSS” line –Backstrom, Ovechkin, and Semin Score” had a good night in particular – a goal and three assists for the trio, who were also a combined plus-6 (although those five giveaways by Ovechkin get your attention, too).

We do wonder, though, at what seems almost to be the artist’s temperament of Alexander Semin. Capable of spellbinding puckhandling and a lethal shot, he’s also capable of a “whaaaaa….?” moment as when he had what looked to be a clear shot from between the top of the circles, but passed to an open wing vacated by a teammate. Good with the bad…

Eric Fehr deserved the hard hat. Yeah, he had what was credited the game winning goal, but Fehr did a lot of other things, too. A high-scoring player in junior, that part of his game hasn’t really crystallized, yet. But there he is, hustling on the forecheck, chasing down opponents, and doing a lot of the heavy puck-lugging that Viktor Kozlov might otherwise do. He had a good game.

One thing the Caps did very well tonight was to use their sticks in the passing lanes. The Lightning did not often get the chance to make cross-ice passes without a Cap stick getting in the way. Again…the little things.

And, the defense did a very good job for most of the game sweeping away rebounds and loose pucks in front of Johnson. Ok, that’s two things.

It seems rather clear to us that Vincent Lecavalier is not yet quite right. We can’t remember a game against the Caps in which he was less of a factor or more invisible.

Oh, and to those fans imploring a Cap – any Cap – to hit Martin St. Louis?...good luck. You don’t survive to be a generously listed 5’9” winger at the age of 33 in this league without having learned certain survival techniques in the land of the large.

Steven Stamkos might someday be a great player, but for the moment, he looks like a rookie. We’re reminded of the scene in the locker room in the movie, “Bull Durham,” when Crash Davis tells Nuke, “Look, Nuke--these Big League hitters are gonna light you up like a pin ball machine for awhile--don't worry about it. Be cocky and arrogant even when you're getting beat. That's the secret. You gotta play this game with fear and arrogance.”

This is a blocker. The Caps looked to be aiming over this early and often (successfully). We wonder why they more or less stopped after the first period.

Steve Eminger had just about as bad a homecoming as did Kolzig…he was on the ice for the Caps three goals in the first period.

Ryan Craig had six shots for Tampa to tie for the team lead. I swear, I don’t remember one of them.

Was that a tone-setter when Ovechkin freight-trained Vaclav Prospal less than 90 seconds in?

Donald Brashear is really showing some flash in his offensive game. The patience he displayed on setting up Tom Poti for the first goal…well, maybe he’ll be teaching Swedish before too long, too.

That’s 5-1-1 in the last five games for the Caps. But they have a hard stretch coming up – at Carolina, home and home with New Jersey, then on the road west for games at Anaheim, Los Angeles, San Jose, and Minnesota. Getting six of six points in this abbreviated home stand is something to build on as they undertake the next chore. Well done, boys.