2010-2011 By the Tens -- Defensemen: Jeff Schultz

Jeff Schultz

Theme: “What if this is as good as it gets?”
-- Melvin Udall

In 2009-2010, Jeff Schultz led the NHL with a plus-50, the first defenseman to crack the plus-50 threshold since Chris Pronger did it in 1999-2000. Schultz also established career highs in games played (73), minutes played (1,450), assists (20), points (23), penalty minutes (32), shots on goal (43), hits (66), and fewest goals against on-ice at 5-on-5 (1.61).

Nice year. 2010-2011?...Not so much.

Well, to be more precise, not as much. If you look at his ten-game splits he started and finished relatively well…

…but the middle of his season wasn’t much to write home about, plus he missed nine games (Games 30-38, which accounted for almost all of his fourth ten-game split) with a broken thumb. Given his lackluster performance in his fifth and sixth ten-game splits (immediately after the injury, over which he was a combined 0-3-3, minus-6), perhaps that injury had some lingering effects.

Those lingering effects might have been reflecting in, perhaps surprisingly, his hits totals. Hit are a somewhat arbitrary statistic, dependent on what the eyes of an official scorer sees. But Schultz was credited with a rather substantial (for him) number before his injury (28 in his first three ten-game splits covering 29 games). After that injury, the hit totals dropped significantly (only five in Games 39-50) before picking up late.

Looking at this year versus last, though, Schultz’ basic numbers are almost uniformly worse:

Is that because his defense was worse, or because of other changes? Perhaps a hint at an answer can be found by looking at things another way. For example, that plus-50 Schultz had last year dropped all the way to plus-6 in almost the same number of games played. But here is the thing. In 2010-2011 Schultz’s goals-for per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 was 2.27, while his goals-against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 was the same – 2.27, for a plus/minus of “zero.” Compare that to the 2009-2010 season when the GA number was 4.23, and the GA number was 1.61, for a plus/minus of 2.62. Break this down a little more by comparing the GF from year to year with the GA from year to year, and you can see that of the 2.62 change in plus/minus, 1.96 of that is explained away by changes in goals scored (4.23 in 2009-2010 compared to 2.27 in 2010-2011), while 0.66 of the change can be explained by changes on the goals allowed side of the equation (a number which, frankly, is a bit distressing in itself). These are high-level orders of review, and they don’t disentangle Schultz from the performance of his teammates in those situations. However, it can lead one to think that while Schultz might not have measured up in play to his 2009-2010 season, it is not the same thing as saying he played poorly. 2009-2010 was, after all, a career year for him and in terms of that plus/minus number quite remarkable in the context of recent NHL history.

Comparing some other of Schultz’ numbers from year to year suggests that he didn’t necessarily “play” much worse than the 2009-2010 season (or at least as much as the basic numbers might suggest). For example, he had 15 games of plus-2 or better in 2009-2010, 11 such games this past season (a product of less offense?). He was on ice for a total of 54 goals against in 2009-2010, 60 goals this past season. What he did have, though, was a significantly higher number of minus games – 23 this past season compared to 11 in 2009-2010. All in all, Schultz (and this would apply to a Karl Alzner as well) is the sort of player whose numbers, especially those like a plus/minus, depend on what goes on around him much more than himself, since he does not contribute much offense. The Caps were not the offensive team they were a year ago, and the difference in Schultz’ GF/60 at 5-on-5 compared to his GF/60 at 5-on-5 for the two years suggests that this is strongly the case (numbers from behindthenet.ca).

Odd Schultz Fact… Schultz had two four-game minus streaks, neither of which coincided with the Caps’ eight-game losing streak in December (Games 19-22 in November and Games 43-46 in January). He was minus-13 in those eight games, plus-19 in his other 64 games.

Game to Remember… March 18, 2011. If you are going to score only one goal all season, it’s nice to make it a game-winner. And it’s even nicer to score it on a hall-of-fame to be goaltender. Such was the case in March, when Jeff Schultz pulled a “Mike Green” and stepped into some open space at the edge of the left wing circle, took a pass from Mike Knulble, and one-timed it over the catching glove of Devils’ goalie Martin Brodeur. It was the first goal of the night and the only one goalie Michal Neuvirth would need in pitching a 3-0 shutout. Schultz added a couple of hits for good measure.

Game to Forget… January 12, 2011. Schultz was on the ice for all three goals against as the Caps fell to the Tampa Bay Lightning in a 3-0 loss. On the first goal he skated himself out of the play by following a rushing Nate Thompson to the boards, then neither putting a body on him nor using his stick to separate him the puck from his possession. Thompson fed the puck in front, where Tom Poti was the only defenseman in a position to defend; it did not end well. On the second goal he was caught in no-man’s land above the circle, not quite defending Steve Downie, and Tampa Bay ended up scoring another goal from in-close. On the last one, he tried to flick the puck away from a breaking Simon Gagne, but it was a less than confident effort, and Gagne scored on a breakaway. He earned his minus-3.

Post Season… Like so many other Caps, you could argue Schultz had two different playoffs – the one against the Rangers (plus-five in five games) and the one against Tampa Bay (minus-4 in four games. But there is this. Over the nine games the Caps played, Schultz had by far the best GA/ON per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 of all Caps defensemen (1.14) and the best by far plus/minus on ice per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 for the playoffs (1.14). He and Scott Hannan were the only two Caps defensemen who had better GA/ON numbers than GA/OFF. In Schultz’ case, the difference was 1.56 goals/60 minutes.  But he was on the ice for six goals in the Tampa Bay series, two of them on Lighting power plays, and half of them came in a 3-2 loss in Game 2 that put the Caps squarely behind the eight ball in a series they would lose in a sweep.

In the end, folks will always find shortcomings in Schultz’s play. Such is the price for a defenseman with Chris Pronger’s size (6’6”, 230), but with Nick Schultz’ game (6’1”, 200). We don’t think one could argue that Jeff Schultz had the year he had in 2009-2010; not close. The 2009-2010 season was a career year for him, perhaps not to be repeated. If anything, his year looked more like the previous season, 2008-2009, in which he was 1-11-12, plus-13 in 64 games, but that means a step or three back. Maybe the 2009-2010 season was as good as it gets for Schultz, which by no means makes his 2010-2011 season a bad one. Trouble is, neither was it an especially good one.

Grade: C+

2010-2011 By the Tens -- Defensemen: Tom Poti

Tom Poti

Theme: “All lovely things will have an ending, All lovely things will fade and die; And youth, that's now so bravely spending, Will beg a penny by and by.”

-- Conrad Aiken

Three… eight… six… two… three…one… forty seven.

In nine seasons before joining the Washington Capitals in 2007, defenseman Tom Poti missed more than ten games in a season twice. With the 2010-2011 season now behind us, Poti has missed more than ten games twice in four seasons with the Caps. This past season, Poti missed 61 regular season and nine post-season games in the chunks described in that set of numbers above, the last 47 of which (38 regular season, nine post season) closed the 2010-2011 campaign. It is hard for any player to build any personal momentum when you have only one streak of consecutive games played longer than four contests in what amounts to half a season’s worth of play.

Poti has now missed 114 games over four seasons as a Cap. Compare that to having missed a total of 144 games in nine seasons before arriving in D.C. And the injury sheet is long (courtesy of tsn.ca; 2010-2011 season in bold):

November 2007: 6 games (groin)
January 2008: 3 games (upper body)
February 2008: 2 games (lower body)
November 2008: 5 games (groin)
December 2008: six games (groin)
January 2009 (15 games (groin)
March 2009: 2 games (groin)
April 2009: 4 games (groin; to end of regular season)
December 2009: 6 games (upper body)
December 2009: 2 games (undisclosed)
March 2010: 2 games (groin)
April 2010: 1 game (playoffs; orbital bone fracture)
October 2010: 3 game (lower body injury)
November 2010: 8 games (lower body injury)
November 2010: 6 games (groin)
December 2010: 2 games (groin)
January 2011: 3 games (head injury)
May 2011: 38 games/regular season, 9 games/playoffs (lower body)

What Caps fans didn’t get to see was whether Poti – who suffered a ghastly eye injury in Game 6 of the 2010 Eastern Conference quarterfinal playoff series – could make an inspired comeback. As it turned out, in only two of his eight ten-game splits did he manage to dress for more than five games (six in his third ten-gamer, seven in his fourth ten-gamer). The two splits were more or less a microcosm of his up and down (in and out?) season. In the Games 21-30 split Poti was 1-4-5, plus-3, in six games. In the Games 31-40 split he was 0-1-1, minus-4, the last of which was a 3:34 ice time effort against the Penguins two days before Christmas. Happy Holidays.  The whole picture by the tens looked like this...

One of the more unfortunate outcomes of the season for Poti was that there were tantalizing indications he could have been a significant contributor to the blue line. Among Caps defensemen playing in at least 20 games (Poti played in 21), he led the defensemen in goals and points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. OK, so we’re dealing with a player who had all of two goals and seven points. We get it, but it’s what we have, and who knows? That’s what makes it “tantalizing.” On the other hand, though, he was on the ice for more than a goal per game per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 more than both Karl Alzner and John Carlson (3.05 versus 1.90 and 1.93, respectively; numbers from behindthenet.ca). Again, few data points, but who knows?  What it meant was a dreadful year compared to last...

Odd Poti Fact… Or perhaps, “Depressing Poti Fact.” In his first three seasons with the Caps, Poti did not average less than 21 minutes a night of ice time. Not only did that number dip to 18:21 in 2010-2011 in the 21 games he did play, but in two of the last four games he dressed for he did not make it to ten minutes of ice time.

Game to Remember… December 6, 2010. When the Toronto Maple Leafs visited Verizon Center in early December, the Caps treated their guests rudely, jumping out to a 4-1 lead with the game barely past the half-way point. Tom Poti assisted on three of the goals in what would be his first three-point game in the regular season as a Cap. He added a team-high three blocked shots for good measure. Of course, this being a “Tom Poti” game to remember, and knowing the kind of season he had, the Caps gagged on the three-goal lead, allowing three scores in the third period before losing the game in a Gimmick, 5-4.

Game to Forget… every one of them after he started against Tampa Bay on January 12th and lasted only ten shifts, one in the second period, as the Caps lost 3-0 to the Tampa Bay Lightning. He did not take the ice again in the 2010-2011 season.

Post Season… Wasn’t one to write about.

In the end, that 47-game void that makes up the end of Poti’s season means that there just is not a lot to grab onto when looking back at his season. Couple that with Mike Green’s absence for all but one of the last 26 games of the regular season, and one might wonder how the Caps ended up on top of the Eastern Conference standings. If Green has question marks about his durability as a result of his absences, for Poti the questions are about his ability to come back at all.

The recurring groin injuries have no doubt taken a considerable toll on him, and as a result even George McPhee suggested that his career now hangs in the balance. It is vaguely reminiscent of the recurring problems Brian Sutherby had some years ago for the Caps, and the solution seems as elusive. The difference here being that Sutherby was a comparative youngster who had not yet suffered much of the wear and tear the NHL can put on a player, while Poti now has more than 850 games of NHL experience (regular season and playoffs) and will 34 years old this coming season. Still, 34 is too soon for a player to have to consider that the end is looming. But the four years he has spent in Washington have not been kind to Poti as far as his durability is concerned. What that means is that one of the lingering questions over the summer will be whether the one shift he skated in the second period of a game in January will be the last one Tom Poti skates in the NHL. Having a career merely “fade away” is something no one – player or fan – wants to see unfold.

Grade: Incomplete

2010-2011 By the Tens -- Defensemen: Scott Hannan

Scott Hannan

Theme: “There is nothing so stable as change.”
-- Bob Dylan

In 2009-2010, the Caps defensive corps might be described as promising, what with Mike Green and Jeff Schultz putting together solid years, and John Carlson and Karl Alzner showing signs of being a steadfast duo for years to come. But the adjectives that were missing from the group were “stay-at-home” and “durable.” No Cap defenseman played in more than 75 games, only four playing more than 50 games. And when the Caps’ best example of a stay-at-home defenseman was Shaone Morrison, well, one could imagine a need to improve in that area.

The Caps would go almost two months into the 2010-2011 season before addressing that need and filling in the missing adjectives. Washington traded forward Tomas Fleischmann to the Colorado Avalanche for defenseman Scott Hannan, the culmination of several months of talks between the clubs. In Hannan the Caps got a defenseman who in 2009-2010…

-- Played more games (81) than any Caps defenseman (75 for Mike Green) and in fact had not appeared in fewer than 75 games in a season since he split time between San Jose in the NHL and Kentucky in the AHL in 1999-2000.
-- Had more blocked shots (144) than any Caps defenseman (129 for Jeff Schultz)
-- Played more minutes (1,776) than all but one Cap defenseman (1,911 for Green)
-- Had more shorthanded ice time (265 total minutes) than any Caps defenseman (253 minutes for Tom Poti)

And at age 31 (he turned 32 in January 2011) with almost 800 games of NHL experience, he had the experience that the Caps needed to complement the young defensemen Green, Schultz, Carlson, and Alzner.

So, just what the doctor ordered, right? Well, Hannan joined the Caps lineup on December 2nd in Dallas. They lost, 2-1. Then they lost their next game… and the next… and the next. The Caps welcomed their new defenseman on board just in time to lose eight games in a row. In those eight games, Hannan did not record a point (offense not being what he was brought on board to provide) and was a minus-9. He was on the ice for 12 of the 27 goals scored against the Caps in that skid.

After that, however, Hannan proved to be a stable anchor on the blue line. After the losing streak, he went 14 games without finishing on the minus-side of the ledger and overall finished up the last 47 games of the regular season 1-4-5, plus-12. And with Mike Green and Tom Poti spending much of the second half of the season on the shelf with injuries, the 20:16 a night he logged in ice time provided the kind of stability the Caps needed without having to heap even more responsibility on the youngsters on the blue line – John Carlson and Karl Alzner. As his splits with the Caps suggest, he struggled early upon joining the Caps (as did the rest of the team in that train wreck of a losing streak in December), but settled in quite nicely over the rest of the season…

Odd Hannan Fact… After starting with the Caps with six games on the minus side of the ledger in his first eight contests in a Caps jersey, he was a “minus” player only four times in his next 39 games.

Game to Remember… March 3, 2011. Scott Hannan is not known as a goal scorer; he came to the Caps having scored only 30 goals in 775 games, but on this night he did his best impression of Mike Green. Early in the second period, with the St. Louis Blues holding a 1-0 lead at Verizon Center, Hannan settled into some open space at the top of the right wing circle. In the opposite corner, Matt Hendricks outfought Carlo Colaiacovo for a loose puck, which squirted to Alex Ovechkin behind the Blues’ net. Ovechkin threaded a pass to Hannan in the circle, but Hannan, not being a Mike Green, did not one-time the puck. It worked out for him though as goalie Ty Conklin went down once, sprang back up, then went down again as Hannan teed up. Hannan snapped the puck high over Conklin’s glove hand on the near side for his first, and what would be his only goal for the Caps this season in a 3-2 win.

Game to forget… December 11, 2010. Shortly after arriving in Washington, Hannan had the opportunity to face his old team, the Colorado Avalanche. It was not what Hannan might have envisioned. He was on the ice for all three goals scored by the Avalanche, finished minus-2, and otherwise had a rather quiet scoresheet (one hit, one blocked shot) in the 3-2 loss that extended a Caps losing streak to five games.

Post Season… There is the forest, and there are the trees. Overall, you might say Hannan ended up about where you would expect. In nine games, he had an assist (no surprise there, being a stay-at-home type), and he was plus-1 over the nine games. But like the rest of the Caps, those numbers really don’t break down so well…plus-3 in five games against the Rangers, minus-2 in four against the Lightning. Against the Lightning in the second round sweep he was on the ice for five goals against (of the 16 Tampa Bay scored).

In the end, Hannan provided what the defense, looking back, sorely lacked – a sense of stability. For a group in which only the kid defensemen (Karl Alzner, John Carlson) played in all 82 games, one in which only two other defensemen (not including Hannan) played in more than 50 games, Hannan didn’t miss a game and despite coming to the team in December still finished fifth in total games played among Caps defensemen. Hannan is an unrestricted free agent and may be moving on, but for 55 games in the 2010-2011 season the change he brought was stability.

Grade: B+

photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

2010-2011 By the Tens -- Defensemen: Mike Green

Mike Green

Theme: You win some, lose some, and wreck some.
-- Dale Earnhardt

The Capitals returning to a playoff-caliber brand of hockey in 2007-2008 was accompanied by the emergence of Mike Green as an offensive force from the blue line. In three regular seasons starting with that 2007-2008 season Green recorded 68 goals, 137 assists, and 205 points, while going plus-69 in 225 games. He came into the 2010-2011 season having built a reputation as the best offensive defenseman in the NHL. Except…

There were those post season performances. Ones that seem to have withered over the course of the three years… 3-4-7 in seven games in 2008… 1-8-9 in 14 games in 2009… 0-3-3 in seven games in 2010. And it seemed to leave Green with a bit of a hangover coming into the 2010-2011 season. In the season’s first 26 games, Green played in 21 of them, posting a 5-8-13, plus-8 line. Not bad, but not the point a game pace he put up in the previous two years, either. He did have a “growth spurt,” as it were in that second set of ten games for the season (his full ten-game splits as follows)…

…but it would be the high water mark for Green’s season. His fortunes mirrored those of his teammates during that 0-6-2 stretch in December. He missed two of those games with the flu and was 0-1-1, minus-3 in the other six. It was a slump from which he never really recovered. Over the following 20 games after the losing streak Green went 4-7-11, plus-5.

In that 20th game, though, the wheels really began to fall off for Green’s season. On February 6th, the Caps hosted the Penguins in Washington. With three seconds left in the first period, Pittsburgh’s Brooks Orpik let fly with a one-timer that hit Green in the ear. He did not return for the rest of that game and would, in fact, play in just one of the following seven games before returning against the New York Rangers. Green lasted two shifts. On the second one, he and Ranger Derek Stepan went into the Olympia corner at Verizon Center, and Green was left on the ice, much worse for wear, having taken a check from Stepan moments before Ranger defenseman Steve Eminger scored the first goal in a 6-0 Ranger rout. It would be the last shift Green would take in the regular season.

Since becoming a full-time starter in the 2006-2007 season, Green finished the 2010-2011 season having played the fewest number of games over the five-year stretch (49), recording his second lowest goal total (eight), second lowest point total (24), and second worst plus-minus total (plus-6). If one is comparing this season with Green’s 2009-2010 season, this one was more or less a lost season…

And this now raises concerns about Green’s durability. He will only turn 26 in the first month of next season, but in the last three seasons he missed 15, seven, and 33 regular season games. The absentee chart looks like this (from tsn.ca):

December 2008: 11 games (shoulder)
December 2008 2 games (shoulder)
March 2008: 1 game (flu)
November 2009: 1 game (upper body injury)
January 2010: 1 game (undisclosed)
April 2010: 1 game (undisclosed)
October 2010: 3 games (undisclosed)
November 2010: 2 games (undisclosed)
December 2010: 2 games (flu)
February 2011: 5 games (undisclosed; injured reserve)
April 2011: 20 games (undisclosed; injured reserve)

The last two absences would appear to have been the result of concussions. Then, upon returning in time for this year’s first round playoff series against the New York Rangers, he took a shot from the Rangers’ Matt Gilroy in the head in game five with such force that it popped screws loose from his helmet.

It would be easy to say that Mike Green is a marked man, that as a puck carrier – the puck carrier from the Capitals’ blue line in recent years – that teams will target him on the forecheck with an aim toward punishing him with hits. But two of the three head shots he took this year came on shots, and the third – the hit from Derek Stepan – might have been a case of an aftershock of the first concussion he suffered, the product of a shot he took off his ear by Brooks Orpik. Nevertheless, as much as fans might want Green to return to something approximating his production over the 2008-2010 period, the first order of business in 2011-2012 will be answering the question, “can he stand up to an 82-game schedule?”

Odd Green Fact… In 2009-2010, Green was on ice for 1.08 goals against per game; in 2010-2011, he dropped that number to 0.82 goals against per game in his abbreviated 49-game season.

Game to Remember… October 30, 2010. In the 2009-2010 season, when Mike Green recorded 76 points in 75 games, he had only one game in which he had at least three points. On October 30th, he had his only three-point game of the 2010-2011 season. With the Caps trailing, 2-0, after barely 11 minutes had gone by in Calgary against the Flames, Green assisted on a Nicklas Backstrom power play goal late in the first period to halve the deficit. He then assisted on an Alex Ovechkin power play goal early in the second period to tie the game. After Ovechkin netted another power play goal 12 seconds later to give the Caps the lead, Green potted a goal of his own at even strength at 10:28 (one of only three even strength goals he would have for the season). It was part of a six-goal explosion in the second period against the Flames in a 7-2 Caps win. Green not only recorded his only three-point game of the season by added a pair of takeaways, as well as three hits and three blocked shots.

Game to Forget… February 12, 2011. After Green took one in the ear hole against the Penguins on February 6th, he sat out the next game against San Jose. Green returned on February 12th against the Los Angeles Kings, and in retrospect, maybe it wasn’t such a great idea. The Caps took an early lead on an Alex Ovechkin goal, but the Kings came back to score four unanswered goals, the first three of which were scored with Green on the ice. He added a roughing penalty as if for good measure and finished the evening with the only minus-3 night of his regular season, one that would have but one more game to play, courtesy of Derek Stepan.

Post Season… A Tale of Two Mikes, as it turned out. Green returned to the Caps lineup for Game 1 against the Rangers in the first round. He assisted on the game-tying goal in the third period in a 2-1 overtime Game 1 win for the Caps. Then, he added assists in each of the next three games as the Caps built a 3-1 lead in games. Luck was not a commodity in long supply for Green this season, though, and in Game 5, despite having already recorded a power play goal, he managed to skate only six shifts, the last of which ended when he took that shot from Matt Gilroy off the helmet. After that, well, Green’s fortunes mirrored those of the Caps against the Tampa Bay Lightning in round two. He played in the first three games, recorded an assist, and was minus-1 in each of the three games. He suffered one more injury in Game 3, sitting out the third period of a 4-3 loss, then sat out the season finale as the Caps were swept out of the playoffs by Tampa Bay.

In the end, there was no end. Green didn’t get off to a start that suggested he would keep pace with the offensive numbers he put up in the previous three seasons. But he was a better defensive player and was still chewing up large chunks of ice time. That would last barely half a season. A decent first half was derailed by injuries in the second half that raise more questions about his future than memories of his performance. And the answers to those questions could go a long way toward reversing the disappointment the Caps experienced once more in the spring.

Grade: Incomplete

2010-2011 By the Tens -- Defensemen: John Erskine

John Erskine

Theme: Surprise is the greatest gift which life can grant us.
-- Boris Pasternak

Coming into the 2010-2011 season, Capitals defenseman John Erskine had never played in more than 60 games in one season, never more than 52 games in a season for one team. His career high in goals was two. He never recorded double digits in points, never took more than 50 shots on goal.

Well, wasn’t this year a nice surprise? Erskine – pigeon-holed as a “physical defenseman” of modest (by NHL standards) skills, who might have been penciled in as a 6/7 sort of defenseman for the Caps – finished the regular season having played 73 games (a career high), scoring four goals (another career high), recording seven assists (tying a career high) and 11 points (yup…career high), and had 58 shots on goal (ditto).

Oddly enough, perhaps, he did most of this offensive “damage” in the first half of the season, as his ten-game splits illustrate…

That pace he was on in the first half of the season, had he been able to extend it, might have left him as the Caps’ third leading point getter on the blue line by the end of the season (behind John Carlson and Mike Green). But Erskine reverted to form in the latter half of the season, going 1-1-2, minus-2 in the second half after going 3-6-9, plus-3 in the first half.

It would be damning with faint praise to say Erskine had a pretty good year, “given his talent level.” Uh, he’s an NHL player, which means he’s among the top couple hundred or so of his kind (job title, “hockey defenseman”) on the entire planet. Anyone reading this want to make that claim in their job? That said, the fact that Erskine had a career year in so many respects might be as much a product of players around him. By this we mean that the emergence of a John Carlson or a Karl Alzner allowed Erskine to remain more often within the confines of his productive comfort zone.

An example…John Erskine’s first year with the Capitals was the 2006-2007, one in which he played in 29 games (the low number being largely a product of missing 25 games with a broken foot). He averaged 18:02 in ice time that season. Since then, his ice time has dropped…15:42 in 2007-2008… 16:47 in 2008-2009… 15:58 in 2009-2010… 14:49 this past season. Perhaps managing Erskine’s time more closely – a luxury the Caps could indulge with Carlson and Alzner now gobbling up large chunks of time – allowed him to become more productive in a more limited role. He certainly improved in most respects from the 2009-2010 season…

In fact, Erskine’s quality of competition ranked lowest among all nine Caps defensemen playing in at least 20 games. That has been true in the previous two seasons as well, and he was next to last in the 2007-2008 season. But with less ice time, the exposure to liability was not as great.

There is another set of considerations here with Erskine. Beyond numbers, it would be hard to name a Caps defenseman who gave his “A” effort on a more consistent basis. Indirectly, this might have been evidenced by his finishing with lower than a minus-2 only once in 73 games, and only twice this season did he finish consecutive games on the minus side of the ledger. OK, last year those occurrences were “never” and “once,” but last year the Caps steamrolled teams to the tune of better than a goal-per-game winning margin. This year, with the Caps playing games with much thinner average margins of victory, a defenseman with the alleged liabilities of an Erskine would have been harder to hide, or at least hide from the numbers. Erskine accounted well for himself.

Odd Erskine Fact…Plus-11 at home, minus-10 on the road.

Game to Remember… February 16, 2011. In a game in Anaheim against the Ducks, the home team was on the long end of a 5-4 puck fest late in the second period. With 3:13 left in the frame, the Ducks’ Andy Sutton boarded Matt Hendricks. Erskine jumped in to get his pound of flesh from Sutton. He was given an instigator, a fighting major, and a ten-minute misconduct for his trouble, although he did win the fight (and Sutton got his own “two and five” for boarding and fighting). The Caps would have to kill another penalty later in that period, but they came out smoking in the third, getting a goal from Mike Knuble on a breakaway in the first minute, then getting two more (to Anaheim’s one) while holding he Ducks to five third period shots in stealing a 7-6 win. Erskine did not skate another shift after that, but maybe he played his part in kicking the Caps up a notch for the third period.

Game to Forget… November 19, 2010. The Caps were on an 8-0-1 roll when they went to Atlanta to visit the Thrashers. The Caps had just beaten Atlanta, 6-4, only five days before. But the Caps stepped in a big steaming pile, and Erskine certainly didn’t step around it. In less than 14 minutes of work he was on the ice for three goals against (his season-worst minus-3 the result) and took a late elbowing penalty in a 5-0 loss.

Post Season… Not too good. Erskine was on ice for seven of the 24 goals scored against the Caps, which in and of itself is not necessarily bad (he was a plus-1 for the post season). But he was on the ice for five of the 16 goals scored against Washington in the second round series against Tampa Bay. Given his ice time and the matchups one would want to get, that’s a high number, especially since he was on the ice for three goals scored by Sean Bergenheim. Tampa’s forward had a Drucian post season (nine goals in 16 games, four of them against the Caps), and Erskine got to see much of it from entirely too close a vantage point.

In the end, the Caps got more out of John Erskine this season than perhaps fans might have expected. Erskine was on ice for 41 goals in 73 games (by way of comparison, Mike Green was on for 40 in 49 games). On ice for 0.56 goals/game, Erskine experienced a marked drop from his being on ice for 0.64 goals against in 2009-2010. Yes, that might be a reflection of the Caps shifting to a more defensive posture generally, but Erskine wasn’t a “weak link” in that change. The post-season revealed some problems, but we think Caps fans should be more pleased with John Erskine’s contribution in the regular season portion of the 2010-2011 season.

Grade: B-

(Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images North America)

2010-2011 By the Tens -- Defensemen: John Carlson

John Carlson

Theme: Toil to make yourself remarkable by some talent or other
-- Seneca

OK, you’ve just made your NHL debut two months before your 20th birthday, then you score the game-winning goal in overtime in the World Junior Championship title game (and are named to the WJC all-star team for good measure) a few days before you turn 20 years old. You are recalled by the Caps two weeks later and finish the regular season with the big club by going plus-11 in 22 games. Then, with your team having lost its first playoff game in the post season at home and down a goal late in the third period of Game 2, in danger of going down 0-2, you score the game-tying goal with 81 seconds left and save, at least for the moment, the season (the Caps going on to win that game in overtime). After your team is eliminated in the post season, you go back down to Hershey, where not only does your team skate off with the championship, but you score the game-winning goal in the Calder Cup-clinching game.

And you’re not even “technically” a rookie in the NHL…how the hell do you top that season as you embark on your NHL rookie campaign?

Meet John Carlson, Real American Hero and Man with a Flair for the Dramatic. Absent curing cancer, solving global warming, stabilizing U.S. currency, and single-handedly winning the war on poverty (or drugs, terror, whatever), anything he did this season might be viewed as underachieving. But he is a hockey player, and a mighty fine one. Did we say he will not turn 22 until next January?

As for his 2010-2011 season, we can start with his overall numbers through his ten-game splits…

Now, let’s put them in context. Among Washington defensemen, Carlson…

-- Tied for the team lead in games played (82, with Karl Alzner)
-- Was second in goals scored (seven, to Mike Green’s eight)
-- Led the team in assists (30) and overall scoring (37 points)
-- Led in plus-minus (plus-21)
-- Led in game-winning goals (three)
-- Led in shots on goal (144)
-- Was second in total average ice time per game (22:38, among defensemen playing at least 20 games for the Caps)
-- Led in blocked shots (160)
-- Led in takeaways (60)

Among his rookie defenseman cohorts, Carlson…

-- Was the only one to play in all 82 games (P.K. Subban was next with 77 games played)
-- Tied for fourth in goals
-- Tied for second in assists
-- Finished fourth in total points
-- Tied for first in game winning goals (with Cam Fowler and Subban)
-- Was second in shots on goal (to Subban)
-- Was second in plus-minus (to Adam McQuaid)
-- Finished first in total average ice time per game
-- Finished first in blocked shots
-- Finished first in takeaways

It wasn’t all unicorns and glitter – Carlson did lead all rookie defensemen in giveaways, and only four rookie blueliners were on the ice for more goals against, but in a perverse sense even those numbers were a reflection of the responsibility placed on Carlson’s (and his usual partner, Karl Alzner’s) shoulders. If you’re out there long enough, largely facing the opponent’s best, you’re going to get beat. His rookie competitors did not as often enjoy the level of responsibility Carlson was asked to bear.

Carlson showed considerable consistency in his offensive production across his ten-game splits, and he finished strong (2-7-9, plus-7 in his last dozen games of the season while averaging almost 24 minutes a night). It led to a season that was, even if put on an equivalent games played basis, an improvement over the previous season:

Here’s the thing, though. Of 173 defensemen in the NHL who played in at least 50 games (regardless of years in the league) only 23 played against higher quality competition than did Carlson (statistics from behindthenet.ca) – higher than Drew Doughty or Shea Weber or Christian Ehrhoff or Tyler Myers, to name a few you might recognize. No rookie defenseman played to a higher level of competition than did Carlson.

Odd Carlson Fact…John Carlson played the last 33 games of the season never having skated less than 20 minutes in any of them. The next longest streak of 20-plus minute games to end the season among rookie defensemen? Seventeen (P.K. Subban).

Game to Remember…October 9, 2010. In the home opener for the Caps against the New Jersey Devils, the Caps spotted the Devils the first goal 1:49 into the game. Carlson got it back less than a minute later when he picked up a loose puck outside the Devils’ blue line, skated in, and wristed the puck past goalie Martin Brodeur and just under the crossbar for his first goal of the season. After the Devils would grab the lead once more, Carlson assisted on the next two goals (the second of which was the game winner) to give him a 1-2-3 night in a Caps 7-2 win in which Carlson earned the second star.

Game to Forget…February 25, 2011. Yes, the same game as we noted Karl Alzner might want to forget, but when you are one another’s partner, it should not be surprising. In a 6-0 loss to the New York Rangers, Carlson was on the ice for four goals against. At the other end, he attempted nine shots (two on goal) on a bizarre night when 28 of the Caps’ 72 shot attempts came from five defensemen (this was the game in which Mike Green suffered a concussion at the hands, so to speak, of Derek Stepan). None of Carlson’s shots found their mark.

Post Season…It wouldn’t appear as if Carlson had an especially bad post season (2-1-3, minus-2 in nine games), but Carlson struggled in the Rangers series (0-1-1, minus-3 in five games, on ice for four of the eight goals scored against in the series), and his two goals in the series against Tampa came in Games 3 and 4, after the Lightning had established a 2-0 advantage in games (although he was on the ice for only four of 16 goals scored against the Caps in the four games).

In the end, Carlson’s season might not have been as remarkable as the season preceding it, but he enjoyed an excellent season, nevertheless. We were leery of projecting him at even as many as 28 points when the season started. That he ended up with 37 (still in the top-35 among all defensemen) was a pleasant surprise. His ice time and quality of competition faced did not faze him, although he was a bit more out of his depth in this year’s playoffs. He was certainly worthy of being in the Calder Trophy conversation as the top rookie in the league, and he was arguably the top defenseman in this rookie class. Flashy? Perhaps not, but it is a very good foundation on which Carlson can embark on a long NHL career.

Now…about that global warming thing.

Grade: B+

2010-2011 By the Tens -- Defensemen: Karl Alzner

From the “better late than never” file, we get on with looking back at the Caps “by the tens.” First up, the defense and…

Karl Alzner

Theme: Teach us, O Lord, the disciplines of patience, for to wait is often harder than to work.
-- Peter Marshall

(click pic for a larger version)

Karl Alzner was taken with the fifth overall pick in the 2007 draft, and if it seems as if it has taken a long time for him to cement his place in the Caps lineup, it is perhaps a product of his being a fifth overall pick. Call it "high expectations."  Alzner was taken on the heels of a fine year with the Calgary Hitmen in the Western Hockey League, and he spent one more year in Calgary after being selected by the Caps. In 2008-2009 he played the majority of his games in Hershey with the AHL Bears, but he did get 30 games with the Caps as injuries hit the blue line. It was a respectable beginning for a 20 year old defenseman (1-4-5, minus-1 in those 30 games), and might have been looked at as a launching pad for the next season.

In 2009-2010, however, Alzner once more spent the majority of his time in Hershey (56 games) with 21 games spent in Washington. Fans might be forgiven for thinking that Alzner was going sideways in his development. But Alzner was putting the finishing touches on his apprenticeship. He was called upon to play in one playoff game for the Caps in 2010 – the Game 7 loss to Montreal in the opening round – and then was returned to Hershey for the Bears’ run at a Calder Cup. Alzner played in 20 post season games for the Bears as Hershey repeated as AHL champs. In the process he was 3-7-10, plus-7, including a goal in the Bears’ Cup-clinching 4-0 win over the Texas Stars. Not a bad offensive line for a defenseman primarily known for his play in his own end. Here is how he compared to the 2009-2010 season:

That would be the last game Alzner played for the Bears. He played in all 82 games for the Caps in 2010-2011, one of three Caps to play in every game. One would like to say he was consistent over the course of the season, and in a way he was. In his ten game splits he finished on the minus side of the ledger only twice (minus-five in Games 21-30, which included the first four games of the Caps’ December eight-game losing streak, and minus-2 in Games 61-70). As if to reinforce the point, Alzner was “only” minus-2 in that eight-game losing streak, and he was “only” plus-2 in a nine-game winning streak the Caps had between February 26th and March 15th.

On the other hand, he seemed to alternate productive and unproductive groups of games, offensively. No points in his first ten games of the season, three in his next ten. None, three, one, three, one, and one followed in his ten-game splits. But even there, it was only the appearance of alternating production. Those three points in his sixth ten-game split – all of them came in Game 58, a 7-6 win over the Anaheim Ducks in which 11 different Caps had points, and six different Caps (including Alzner) had multi-point games. Taking that game into consideration, Alzner’s offensive production was largely limited to the first half of the season (2-4-6 in Games 1-40; 0-3-3, not including that three-point game, in Games 41-82). But he was plus-5 in those first 40 games, plus-9 to finish the season.  Here is a comparison of his 2010-2011 numbers to those of his 2009-2010 season:

As a practical matter, his offense didn’t, well…matter. Alzner was not – and should not have been – counted on to produce a lot of offense from the blue line. He wasn’t a big hitter, either (third among Caps defensemen in hits). However, he did have his moments. He recorded 54 of his 98 hits (and 15 of his 28 multi-hit games) in the three ten-game splits corresponding to Games 21-50 on the schedule. He had only 24 hits in the last 32 games of the season, none in his last six. With respect to those Games 21-50, had he extended that performance over the course of the entire season, he would have finished with 159 hits, which would have been second on the team behind the 166 that John Erskine had. Alzner is not known as an especially physical defenseman, but it was a somewhat odd progression through the schedule.

Odd Alzner Fact… Alzner was 2-10-12 for the year, but only one of those points (an assist) was recorded in 24 games against Southeast Division opponents (he assisted on a game-winning overtime goal in a 3-2 win over Florida on March 6th).

Game to Remember… March 6, 2011. In a 7-6 win over the Anaheim Ducks, Alzner had three assists, his career best in assists and points (three) in a game. Two of the helpers came on goals that tied the game, the third on the game-winning goal with 1:47 left.

Game to Forget… February 25, 2011. Alzner was on the ice for three goals in a 6-0 loss to the New York Rangers. In addition, he was credited with no takeaways, no blocked shots, no hits in 20:42 of ice time.

Post season… If you are going to be primarily a defensive defenseman, then you can’t be the guy who was on the ice for the most goals against. In nine games and 24 total goals allowed by the Caps, Alzner was on the ice for ten of them (led the team) – five in five games against the Rangers, five in four games against the Lightning. It was Alzner’s first extended experience in an NHL playoff setting, and in that respect this spring’s performance might be chalked up to “learning.”

In the end, for all the waiting Alzner and Caps fans experienced in his getting to the NHL as a permanent fixture, he now has played in more NHL games (133) than any other defenseman in his draft class. He was one half of what became the Caps’ best example of a “shutdown” pair (with John Carlson) for much of the season. He averaged 20:00 of ice time a game, almost none of it on the power play, which meant that he spent large chunks of time in that “defensive” role. Even if his ten-game splits suggest a bit of fading late (0-2-2, even in his last two splits), Alzner had a solid year for a player who came into the season with 51 games of regular season and one game of playoff experience.

Grade: B

How Clear the Reflection?

Over at Japers' Rink, the question was posed, "Is San Jose’s window closing? Read this and see how many similarities you can point out to the local puckers."  "This" refers to a column authored by ESPN hockey analyst Pierre LeBrun about the San Jose Sharks' going home from the Stanley Cup playoffs empty-handed once more.  And JP's question asked about how many similarities there are between the Sharks and the Washington Capitals.  Well, we took a look at LeBrun's comments, and penned a "parallel universe" sort of thing from the Caps' last two seasons (LeBrun's words in bold)...

The San Jose Sharks played their guts out Tuesday night in a 3-2 double-overtime loss, outshooting the victorious Vancouver Canucks 56-34, but went home empty-handed after five games in the Western Conference finals.

In 2010 the Washington Capitals played their guts out in a 2-1 Game 7 loss, outshooting the victorious Montreal Canadiens 42-16, but went home empty handed in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals.
*****

It's a feeling the Sharks are getting mighty tired of. They failed to reach the Stanley Cup finals once again when they looked every bit as dangerous as any other team in the league.

It’s a feeling the Caps are getting mighty tired of. This season they failed to get past the second round for the fourth consecutive season, the last three of which when they looked as dangerous as any team in the league.
*****

How many more times will they get here? Is the window for them closing?

How many more times will they get here? Is the window for them closing?
*****

What's puzzling about the Sharks is that they've knocked out the powerhouse Detroit Red Wings two years in a row -- no small achievement. But they've followed that up by losing eight of the nine games they've played in the Western Conference finals.

What’s puzzling about the Caps is that they set a record for points by a non-Original Six team in 2009-2010 and posted their third straight 100-point season in 2010-2011 – no small achievement. But in the last four years they have lost in the playoffs to teams seeded below them in the tournament.
*****

Glass half full or half empty?

Does the regular season matter?
*****

We can think of many NHL teams that would celebrate back-to-back conference finals appearances. Heck, fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs still revere those back-to-back trips in 1993 and 1994 as legendary moments in the franchise's history.

We can think of many NHL teams that would celebrate three consecutive 100-point seasons.
*****

The Sharks, however, self-admittedly set a loftier goal for their season once again: the Stanley Cup. Great teams aren't shy about setting the bar high. It shows confidence. But when the team falls short, questions are asked.

The Caps, however, do not give the appearance of a team setting the bar high with confidence. “We will look back at our series against the New York Rangers and see a 4-1 in games scorecard but we will know that our series had 2 OT games and every game was close with no margin of error. Luck played a big role in what we did… ("Ted's Take,” April 26, 2011)
*****

This second trip to the Western Conference finals and subsequent quick exit revealed a few truths: Thornton, Ryane Clowe, Logan Couture, Dan Boyle and Douglas Murray are up to the task. They brought it night in and night out and paid the price to have success in the playoffs. Clowe played the entire playoffs with a shoulder injury, McLellan revealed after the game. Clowe was so upset after the loss that he couldn't talk to reporters. This team needs more guys that care like he does.

The last few post-seasons and early exits revealed a few truths: Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom are up to the task. They brought it night in and night out and paid the price to have success in the playoffs. Backstrom’s lack of production in the playoffs this past season might have been a product of a hand injury that took away is greatest gift, his ability to set up plays. Ovechkin played with nagging injuries for most of the season, yet still produced in the post season. The Caps need more guys who bring their “A” game like these two.
*****

But there are still too many passengers on this team.

But there are still too many passengers on the team.
*****

First and foremost, the challenge for GM Doug Wilson is to improve his blue line. The speedy Canucks exposed his defense in this series. Boyle and Murray hung in there, but after that, it was slim pickings. The injury to Jason Demers hurt, but the fact is the Sharks need to prioritize adding a top-four blueliner in the offseason. Look, we know they don't grow on trees, but that's a glaring need on this team.

First and foremost, the challenge for GM George McPhee is to improve the team's compete level. Going out early against teams ranked below them in the standings suggests that there is too much reliance on skill, not enough on grit, an ability to grind their way through a tough series. We know, that’s a hard commodity to identify, but that’s a glaring need on this team.
*****

Up front, the Sharks have to figure out what to do with Dany Heatley. His back-to-back 50-goal seasons in Ottawa seem like eons ago, his goal production has slipped dramatically and his inability to keep up with the playoff pace is a stunning reality. Heatley has three more years left on his deal at a $7.5 million cap hit. Heatley needs to have one of the hardest-working offseasons of his career, because three goals in 18 playoff just games doesn't cut it.

Up front, the Caps have to figure out what to do with their second line center position. Jason Arnott is an unrestricted free agent, and Marcus Johansson – who will someday be a fine player – has growing to do. They also need to figure out Alexander Semin. A hugely gifted winger, the Caps have not found a way to tap that skill consistently in the playoffs.
*****

Devin Setoguchi is a restricted free agent July 1. He had seven goals in these playoffs, two of them overtime winners. But his performance was inconsistent and frustrated the coaching staff. Do the Sharks re-sign him or explore his trade value at the draft?

Brooks Laich is an unrestricted free agent July 1. He had one goal in the playoffs, following a regular season with 16. And that comes after a playoff with two goals that followed a regular season of 25. That kind of dropoff can frustrate a coaching staff. Do the Caps resign him at the $4 million he might command on the open market?
*****

And what about Joe Pavelski, who exploded on the bigger stage last season with a clutch postseason and a terrific Olympics? Pavelski's playoff production dropped from an impressive 17 points (9-8) in 15 games last spring to 10 points (5-5) in 18 games this year. His two helpers Tuesday night were actually one of his better games. Still, what gives? Yes, last year he had a top-six role in the playoffs while this spring he dropped to third-line center, but he still racked up important power-play minutes. His slight regression is troubling for the Sharks.

And what about Eric Fehr, who had three goals in seven games against Montreal in last year’s playoffs, but was injured this post season and had only one goal in five games? His inability to approach the goal-scoring production he had in juniors, coupled with his injury history, has to be troubling for the Caps.
*****

On the flip side, the evolution of the captain this season was hugely encouraging. Thornton took his game to new heights, especially in the playoffs, playing both sides of the puck like never before. His willingness to sacrifice offense for two-way play is reminiscent of the great Steve Yzerman. So is Thornton's willingness to play through pain, the star center revealing afterward he separated his shoulder in Game 4 but played through it Tuesday night.

On the flip side, the evolution of the captain was somewhat encouraging. Alex Ovechkin’s goal total plummeted from 50 last season to 32 this season, but his embracing the defense-first makeover the Caps implemented in their eight-game losing streak in December was essential for the rest of the team adopting it. And he still produced five goals in nine games in the post season, giving him 25 in 37 career playoff games.
*****

In the end, the Sharks will look back on these playoffs and regret not disposing of the Anze Kopitar-less Kings in fewer than six games and not ending Detroit's season earlier than seven games after taking a 3-0 series lead. That sucked the life out of the Sharks, and they had nothing in the tank for the opening two games of the conference finals.

In the end, the Caps will look back on the last four years of disappointments and regret not being able to advance past lower-seeded teams and playing in so many seven-game series that sapped their energy or resulted in losses.
*****

It's a lesson the Sharks must remember for next season when they'll try yet again to get over the hump.

It’s a lesson the Caps must remember for next season when they’ll try yet again to get over the hump.
*****

"I'm sure we'll probably sit back and think about it," Couture said. "Right now, the sting of the loss is so tough to overcome. It just sucks. It sucks."

“I’m sure they’ll probably sit back and think about it," a Caps fan said. “Right now, the sting of the losses has to be so tough to overcome. It just sucks. It sucks.”


No two situations are identical, and this applies to the Sharks and the Caps in this instance.  But both teams have a shared history of playoff frustration, and neither team has won a Cup.  The question for both of them now becomes, "do they have it within them to reach that goal, or have we seen the best they have to offer?"

Making Luck

We suppose there are going to be those who looked at the last ten seconds of last night's Western Conference final contest between the San Jose Sharks and the Vancouver Canucks that thought, "wow, what a lucky bounce."

Maybe.  The Canucks' Alexander Edler can stand along that wall chipping pucks from now until the sun goes dark and perhaps never hit that stanchion again.  Kevin Bieksa might stand out at the blue line until the earth stops spinning and never have that puck come out to him as if on a silver platter.  It was a once in a lifetime coincidence of circumstances that led to Bieksa's series-winning shot from the blue line that bounced and skittered into the back of the net with everyone -- including Sharks goaltender Antti Niemi -- looking in another direction.

None of which would ever have happened without the gritty work of the Canucks in the last 29 seconds of a 2-1 game they seemed destined to lose.  Ryan Kesler, who sustained an injury in the second period of the game, yet returned, won a face off against Joe Thornton (and words cannot describe what a game he had, leading the team in shots, blocking two shots, winning ten of 18 draws, all while playing with a separated shoulder).  It gave the Canucks a last chance in the San Jose zone.  As Edler and Alexandre Burrows were maneuvering the puck at the top of the zone, Kesler worked himself to the front of the net between Shark defensemen Dan Boyle and Douglas Murray, and in front of Niemi.  Edler sent the puck to the net -- a hope and a flutter of a prayer -- as the clock ticked down under 20 seconds in regulation time.  But he got the puck through, or at least close enough where Kesler could get his stick on it to deflect it down and under Niemi's arm, and into the back of the net.

Lots of pixels will be devoted to the events in the last few seconds that led to Bieksa's game winner sending the Canucks to the Stanley Cup finals.  Some folks might see it as luck.  Well, maybe.  But the Canucks made their luck with the work they did to get to that thrilling, if bizarre end.

Questions: So, how's that "plan" working out? A short history of the draft

In the 2010-2011 season, 28 players appeared in at least 10 games for the Washington Capitals and finished the season with the club. That cohort’s make up and how they were acquired might speak to what we can expect of the Capitals’ “plan” going forward.

Of the 28 players, 14 were drafted, seven were obtained via trade, and seven were signed as free agents. As we have been told often, the Caps plan is to rely primarily on the draft to build and maintain the roster, and to keep it competitive.

Well, what about that? That half of the Caps’ roster dressing for games this season was built via the draft can reasonably be considered relying primarily on that avenue for building a roster. What is revealing, though, is what that group of 14 players represents. Eleven of them are first round picks, all taken over a period from 2002 through 2009. At least one first round pick from each of those years dressed for at least ten games, except the 2005 class. All in all, that is not a bad record. Quite good, in fact, because over those eight drafts the Caps had 15 total first round picks…

- three of which were top-ten picks, all of whom played the full 2010-2011 season with the club

- five of which were middle-ten picks (11-20), three of whom played the full season (and of the others of which was turned into another first round pick)

- seven of which were bottom-ten picks (21-30), five of which played the full season

That’s a pretty good outcome. Unfortunately, that kind of success has not been replicated down the draft rounds. Over the same eight year period, the Caps have had 11 second round picks, only one of whom – Michal Neuvirth – is currently with the club (although Theo Ruth, a 2007 second rounder, was part of the deal that brought Sergei Fedorov to Washington in 2008). Chris Bourque is the only other one of that group to have ever dressed for a Caps game over that period.

And it gets worse as one descends through the rounds. Over that 2002-2009 period the Caps drafted 48 players after the second round. Two – Mathieu Perreault and Braden Holtby – played in at least ten games this season. Five of the 48 appeared in at least one game for the Caps over that period (Andrew Gordon, Sami Lepisto, and Oskar Osala being the others). You could rationalize this by thinking that the Caps have improved in late-round drafting, and you would have a point, to a point. In the 2006-2009 period the Caps had 21 picks after the second round, three of which dressed for at least one game for the Caps and two of who played in at least ten games this season (Perreault and Holtby). Still, if the Caps rely on the draft, they rely heavily on the first round for those prospects. But when they miss…

Four of the Caps 15 first round picks over the 2002-2009 period are no longer with the club. The Steve Eminger pick (12th overall in 2002) gets something of a pass, because he was parlayed into the pick that was used to select John Carlson in 2008. But the other three picks – Sasha Pokulok, Joe Finley, and Anton Gustafsson. You just cannot polish them into a shine, no matter how much you try. Pokulok is out of professional hockey, a situation likely accelerated by concussion problems early in his career. But Pokulok was the 39th-ranked North American skater in the Central Scouting Service amateur rankings in 2005. He was the 15th-ranked defenseman in that ranking and was taken with the 14th overall pick in the draft. In retrospect, what did the club see there?

Joe Finley was one of the defensemen ranked ahead of Pokulok in that 2005 CSS ranking and was taken 13 spots later by the Caps (at 27 overall). Looking back, you can probably rationalize that pick as one taken out of uncertainty as to how the post-lockout style of game would unfold. Finley looked more like a “pre-lockout” sort of reach, given his size and orneriness. One could call it a draft-to-type pick, one to fill a need for more physical presence. The game just evolved differently in the post-lockout world.

The other pick – Anton Gustafsson in 2008 (21st overall) – was a good idea gone bad in a hurry. First, there was the pedigree. Gustafsson being the son of a well-known former Cap, Bengt Gustafsson. OK, we get that. And there was the matter of his being ranked fifth among European skaters in the CSS 2005 amateur rankings. On that basis, you might think, “uh, 21st overall?...maybe not a reach.” But the Caps burned another pick to move up to that slot (sending the 23rd and 54th overall picks to New Jersey to move up to 21st). One supposes that in moving up two slots, the idea was that the pick in between – held by Edmonton – would have been spent on that player (Gustafsson). Well, the Caps got their man, and Edmonton settled for Jordan Eberle. The 21-year old finished his rookie season with 18 goals and 43 points for the Oilers. Gustafsson has, to date, played one game of professional hockey in North America (with Hershey in 2009-2010). The best one can say for this is, “things happen.”

Perhaps the best thing that can be said of the first round picks over this eight-year period is that seven of those years produced a first round pick currently on the roster. Although the 2005 draft – the only one in this period from which a first round pick has not appeared for the Caps -- was more or less a disaster (no draftee has yet to play a single game for the Caps), the consistency in getting first round contributions to the roster is absolutely essential to the success of a “draft-first” philosophy. But are the Caps coming to the end of a generation of these picks?

Boyd Gordon (UFA), a 2002 first round pick, is without a contract for next season. Alexander Semin, another 2002 first rounder, has spent parts of six seasons with the Caps and is entering a contract year. Mike Green, a 2004 first rounder, is entering a contract year, as is Eric Fehr, a 2003 first round pick. Add to that the fact that Karl Alzner (currently) and John Carlson (after next season) are or will be coming off entry deals as RFAs, and there is the potential for some turnover in the next year or two.

And that begs the question, who is pushing the roster from underneath? Certainly not the second rounders. Dmitry Orlov – a 2009 second rounder – has to be considered a long shot to make the roster at best. Dmitri Kugryshev (a 2008 second round pick) is, again at best, a couple of years from making the roster. The rest of the second rounders of recent vintage are either out of the game (Eric Mestery) or have been disappointments unlikely ever to see a Caps roster (Josh Godfrey, Francois Bouchard). And it does not get better going down the rounds of recent years. Mathieu Perreault might never be consistent enough to crack this roster, and he is an RFA besides. Braden Holtby has shown promise as an NHL goaltender, so there is that. But after that, the down roster hopes pretty much rest on the shoulders of Cody Eakin, a 2009 third rounder, who might make the roster next season. Makes one hope that Evgeny Kuznetsov -- the 2010 first-round pick for the Caps -- finds the idea of playing in North America to his liking.

The Caps have put most – not all, but most of their eggs in the basket marked “draft.” And they have done rather well with first round picks, if getting them to the roster and into the lineup is the principal criterion for success. But by that same criterion, the Caps have done markedly less well after the first round. And that puts a lot of pressure on first rounders to perform. A team with that sort of drafting profile cannot afford to have too many “2005’s” in that mix.

If the Caps can be said to have had a “great” draft over the eight drafts in this look, the 2004 draft would qualify. But this was less a product of getting value late as it was getting multiple picks early – three first round picks. Even 2006, which probably ranks second in quality of drafts in this set, was a product of having three of the top-34 picks, all of whom were on the roster this past season. The ability to acquire additional first round picks salvaged what could have been rather sparse drafts over these eight years. That was how the Caps were able to draft Alexander Semin and Boyd Gordon in 2002, Jeff Schultz and Mike Green in 2004, Semyon Varlamov in 2006, and John Carlson in 2008.

Unproductive picks after the first round balanced by the benefits of multiple first round picks. Unless the Caps improve upon the former, they will have to find a way to keep doing the latter. If they do not, and they continue to pursue a draft-centric approach to roster building, then the Caps are going to find that “window” for winning closing sooner than they suspect as the players they have drafted graduate to bigger contracts, perhaps with different clubs, and there is insufficient advancement from those after-first round picks.

How is that plan going to look then?

Questions: Is "Best" not Best?

Alex Ovechkin… 65 goals. Most ever by a left wing in NHL history… 2007-2008.

Mike Green… goals in eight consecutive games. All time NHL record for defensemen… 2009.

Michal Neuvirth, Semyon Varlamov, Braden Holtby… only trio of goalies for the same team under the age of 22 in NHL history to record ten or more wins apiece in the same season… 2010-2011.

Mike Green… first defenseman since the 1992-1993/1993-1994 seasons to go consecutive years averaging better than a point per game in each one (50 games played minimum)… 2008-2009/2009-2010

Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom… only Capitals teammates in franchise history to reach the 100-point mark in the same season… 2009-2010.

All in the rear view mirror.

And it begs the question, “have we seen the best of these players?” On one level, you would certainly hope not, given that none of them have yet gotten past the age of 25 (Ovechkin will be the first to hit 26, this coming September). And there is the matter that some of these “bests” are in the stratosphere. I mean, really… 65 goals? Goals in eight straight games… for a defenseman?

But what if it these “bests” are the best we are going to see from these players? Is that such a bad thing? Well, please note that all these “bests” have occurred since the lockout, and among the five Stanley Cup winners since the lockout…

-- Only two had a 100-point scorer (Carolina, Pittsburgh); one had two 100-point scorers (Pittsburgh).

-- None had a 50-goal scorer; three had a 40-goal scorer.

-- None had a defenseman who averaged a point or more a game.

-- One had a defenseman record more than 15 goals (and Chicago’s Dustin Byfuglien might have had a number of his 17 goals playing as a forward). In fact, of 52 defensemen dressing for the five Cup winners during their respective regular seasons, only seven defensemen recorded as many as eight goals for the season, let alone get them consecutively.

-- Four had two goalies record at least 10 wins. In fact, two had two goalies record at least 20 wins (Chicago in 2010; Detroit in 2008). None had three goalies with at least ten wins.

Perhaps career bests are nice for the trophy case and for the player notes in the media guide, but not for winning championships. Teams that have won in recent years do have dominating players – Crosby and Malkin in Pittsburgh in 2009; Datsyk and Zetterberg for the 2008 Wings; Selanne and Niedermayer in Anaheim in 2007; Kane, Keith, and Toews in 2010 in Chicago. But not necessarily “career-best” sort of dominating.

Watching your favorites on the Caps pile up numbers and the accolades that accompany them are a nice diversion during the regular season, but they are no reliable predictor of post-season success. If the Caps are going to win, it has to be a 20-man effort every night, even if it means we’ve seen the last of any “career bests” from any of these Caps.

And maybe that’s the “best” to be hoped for.

Questions: Time to Make a Decision?

The next question… “Is it time to make a decision?”

And the subject is, “goaltenders.” The Capitals came into the 2010-2011 season entrusting the nets to a pair of prospects – Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth. Each had their strengths – Varlamov being an acrobatic shot-blocker who had significant NHL playoff experience despite his age, Neuvrith being a cool technician who came up big in the biggest games of his young career (never having lost a playoff series). But they had their weaknesses, too. Varlamov was frequently injured, and Neuvirth had not exactly sparkled in his NHL chances. Then there was the matter of Varlamov having only 32 games of regular season experience coming into this season, Neuvirth having only 22.

It seemed highly unusual that the Caps would give the keys to a Stanley Cup contender to a pair of goalies who combined did not have a full season’s worth of game experience at the NHL level. But these two goalies have been advancing along parallel paths against one another since both were drafted in 2006 (Varlamov with the 23rd overall pick, Neuvirth with the 34th overall pick). Varlamov grabbed a firmer foothold in the NHL earlier than did Neuvirth. Neither got much ice time in their first season (for both, the 2008-2009 season – Varlamov six appearances, Nevirth five). But when backup goalie Brent Johnson ended with hip surgery (he did not appear in a game after February 1st), Varlamov became the backup. Despite only four appearances in the regular season after Johnson’s season ended, Varlamov was thrust into the number one position when Jose Theodore had a shaky start against the New York Rangers in the first round of the playoffs. Varlamov was spectacular in the opening round in relief of Theodore, and it took a relentless barrage of shots by Pittsburgh in round two to wear him down and eventually chase him in Game 7 of the second round, when the Caps lost to the Penguins, four games to three.

Neuvirth took a more conventional path to the NHL in one way, a bizarre path in another. After being drafted by the Caps in 2006 out of HC Sparta Praha Junior (Czech), he came to North America to join the Plymouth Whalers in the OHL, where he had a fine regular season (26-8-4, 2.32, .932, four shutouts) followed by an excellent post season (14-3, 2.44, .930). You might expect he would spend another year in juniors at the age of 19, which he did. But playing for three different teams? Ten games with Plymouth, eight with the Windsor Spitfires, 15 with the Oshawa Generals, all in the OHL in the 2007-2008 season. From there it was splitting time with Hershey and South Carolina in the AHL and ECHL, but leading the Bears to a Calder Cup, for which he was named most valuable player of the tournament. He repeated the feat the following year (without the MVP trophy, which went to teammate Chris Bourque). His apprenticeship complete, he could now challenge Varlamov for the number one position in goal. And despite many pundits' assurances that the Caps could not leave the goaltending chores to a pair of youngsters, that the team would have to find some veteran help, the Caps gave the kids the chance.

And, in a way, past was prologue. Varlamov, who had been plagued by injuries often in his young career, started the 2010-2011 season on injured reserve (groin). Neuvrith stepped in and was the Caps’ best player over the first six weeks of the season, posting a 12-3-0 win-loss mark. Varlamov would miss 25 games as a result of three injuries (groin, lower body, knee) over the season, and Neuvirth would step up to appear in 48 games. Advantage, Neuvirth.

But wait! As if this contest of young goalies wasn’t enough, there was this fourth-round draft pick from 2008 out of Lloydminster, Saskatchewan, who was going to have a say in the matter. Enter Braden Holtby. His progress after draft day was unremarkable in the path taken – a final year with Saskatoon in the WHL (his third in juniors), followed up by a season split between South Carolina (12 games) and Hershey (37 games). He had little post season experience (a 3-4 mark in one series with Saskatoon in 2009, a 2-1 record with Hershey in 2010).

However, while Varlamov’s injury provided an opening for Michal Neuvrith to assume the lead role between the pipes, it also provided Holtby with a chance to show what he could do as a backup at the NHL level. And talk about announcing your presence with authority. In his first NHL appearance, he came on in relief of Neuvirth in a November 5th game against Boston, stopping all four shots he faced (after Neuvrith let the Bruins back into the game with three goals on five shots to open the third period) in a 5-3 Caps win. Then in his first NHL start, he stopped 23 of 25 shots as the Caps beat the Flyers, 3-2 in overtime on November 7th. It got bumpier for Holtby from there, as he allowed 11 goals on 55 shots (.800 save percentage) in three appearances (all losses, one in overtime) before being returned to Hershey.

Holtby returned to Washington in January when both Neuvirth and Varlamov were nursing lower body injuries. His encore stint was amazing. Nine appearances, 8-0-1, 1.01, .968, and two shutouts. All of a sudden, there was a third horse in the two-horse race to see who would take over as the Caps’ number one goaltender.

And that is where we are today. Varlamov might have the most raw talent, but has durability issues. Neuvirth is the best technician, but he has finally lost a playoff series and has the occasional durability issues of his own. Holtby has shown an ability to shoulder a big work load (twice appearing in more than 60 games in juniors) and seemed to improve as he rose through the Caps system (GAA and save percentages improving when going from South Carolina to Hershey, and from Hershey to Washington).

So, do the Caps hold onto all three for another year? Do they make a decision on which two to keep? If it is time for a decision, which two do you keep, and what are you looking for in sending the other one out? Part of the issue is contracts. Michal Neuvirth was signed to a rather cap-friendly (for a number one goaltender) $1.15 million for each of the next two seasons. Braden Holtby is signed to a $683,000 cap hit for each of the next two seasons. The odd man out, contract-wise, is Semyon Varlamov, who is a restricted free agent. He would presumably be due a raise, perhaps along the lines of the Neuvirth contract.

But with Varlamov, the issue is going to be the team's tolerance level for his durability. Do the Caps wait on him to grow out of his “injury” phase, essentially preserving the status quo (Neuvirth and Varlamov in Washington, Holtby in Hershey)? Or do the Caps move Varlamov’s rights in exchange for other assets, giving the keys to Neuvirth and Holtby? The latter presents problems in that there is unproven depth past Holtby in the system. Brandon Anderson and Phillip Grubauer are signed through the 2013/2014 seasons, but neither has played yet above the junior level.

Signing a free agent goaltender to serve as insurance and play primarily at Hershey is an option, one the Caps took in signing Dany Sabourin for this past season. But in the end, even keeping all three goaltenders on the payroll is not going to break the Caps (combined, if Varlamov gets a Neuvirth-like deal, they would cost less than $3.0 million – 15 individual goaltenders in the NHL have higher 2011/2012 cap hits). In a salary capped era, teams should not make decisions on young players until they have to (read: when they are due their first big pay raise). The Caps do not have to make that decision with these three goaltenders based on contracts, and that being the case, we suspect (and endorse) all three will be with the Caps come the fall.

Unless that whole KHL thing is serious…

Questions: Deal or No Deal?

There is a lot of talk in Caps Nation these days over whether or not a shakeup is needed on the roster to shake off the spell of early playoff round failures that have beset the Caps the past four years. Much of the talk centers on whether it is a good idea to trade defenseman Mike Green.

It is hard to come to a clear answer to the question, “deal or no deal?” Some point to his age (he will turn 26 early in the 2011-2012 season) and position, and wonder if there is still an untapped level of performance for a player who mans a position that usually requires a longer lead time to maturity. Others point to his early-career production and conclude that he has peaked in his offensive production, that he will skate along the path of others before him – a drop in production followed by some increase later, but not to the heights of his early years  – making a long term, high-dollar contract of limited value, thus suggesting that trading him now is the best bet for the Caps.

Well, the Caps themselves have been down a similar road before. An “offensive,” puck-moving defenseman accused of having some issues in his own end, who might not be as physical a defensive presence as fans might like, who had some playoff performance issues.

Yeah, we’ve been here before. So let’s take a look at two Caps – one former, one present. Player A spent parts of six seasons with Washington early in his career (he was not drafted by Washington), playing 453 regular season games between the ages of 22 and 27. Player B (who is Mike Green), has spent parts of six seasons with the Caps, playing in 366 regular season games between the ages of 20 and 25. Let’s compare their numbers in the regular season (data courtesy of hockey-reference.com):

Spooky, isn’t it? Well, it gets better when you compare the playoff performance of these two players over that same relative span:

We will stipulate to all the questions about this kind of comparison – players of different eras, different styles played in those eras, comparing a current player to only one other player, even different contract circumstances (Green will be a restricted free agent after next season; Player A played before the onset of broad free agency rights).

But the age and productivity of the two players are reasonably similar, the big difference being the concern over Green’s durability (he missed 54 games over the past three regular seasons). Still, we do not see the matter of trading Green as a slam dunk in favor of the proposition. And his playing a position that is a virtual requirement for post-season success (solid-top-four defensemen being almost a prerequisite these days) leads us to believe that, all other things equal, keeping Green is the way to go. Of course, the matter of the next contract past next season will weigh heavily in any decision, and that has to be a factor. A Mike Green at a $5.2 million cap hit is one thing. A Mike Green at a $6.5 million cap hit is another matter.

Still, we think the comparison useful, if only to point out the perils of letting a player go – especially at this position – too early. For you see, “Player B” is indeed Mike Green.

“Player A” is Larry Murphy…yes, that Larry Murphy, the one "whooped" out of town, who went on to play with four Stanley Cup winners and who has a bust in the Hall of Fame.

Whoop at your peril.

Everyone's Doin' It: Realignment

A couple of years ago, we came up with this scribble on realignment, but with the Thrashers now looking like the second team from that city to head off to western Canada, well...

Oh, yeah...we're thinking Phoenix is a goner, too, but that comes later.  Just planning ahead.  And just like last time...you got a beef?  Blame Cheerless or Fearless.

But for the life of me...how does a group calling itself the "Atlanta Spirit" merit the name when it seems to expend more energy trying to rid itself of the Thrashers than making them a contender?