With the conference prognostos out of the way, we turn to our prognotos for the league’s awards…
Jack Adams Award
“To the NHL coach judged to have contributed the most to his team's success. The winner is selected in a poll among members of the NHL Broadcasters' Association at the end of the regular season.”
It ought to read, “to the coach who did better than expected.” And that means the finalists are going to be…
Barry Trotz, Nashville. Because the Preds always do better than expected.
Ron Wilson, Toronto. Because we’ve come to expect Toronto to be bad.
Terry Murray, Los Angeles. Because no one expects a team from Los Angeles to be good.
Winner: Ron Wilson, Toronto
*****
Frank J. Selke Trophy
“To the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game. The winner is selected in a poll of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association at the end of the regular season.”
This really goes to the forward who won it last year. Since the lockout, Rod Brind’Amour won in consecutive years before he ended up missing 23 games in the 2007-2008 season. At that point, Pavel Datsyuk took up the trophy and won it three years running, before he missed 26 games last season. Ryan Kesler won it last year, but he is coming off a hip injury (he did not play last night in the Canucks’ season opener). The finalists will be…
Jonathan Toews, Chicago. Because he doesn’t score enough to get the Hart, and he has to win something this year.
Mike Richards, Los Angeles. Because he was supposed to win one by now.
Pavel Datsyuk, Detroit. Because it’s required by league by-laws that he be on the ballot.
Winner: Pavel Datsyuk, Detroit
*****
Lady Byng Trophy
“To the player adjudged to have exhibited the best type of sportsmanship and gentlemanly conduct combined with a high standard of playing ability. The winner is selected in a poll of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association at the end of the regular season.”
Player? No goaltender has ever won, and only two defensemen have won it (four times in all), the last one being three-time winner Red Kelly in 1954. It has been won by a center 57 times. Since the lockout, only two players have won it – Pavel Datsyuk four times consecutively and Martin St. Louis the last two years. The finalists…
Pavel Datsyuk, Detroit. Another league by-law thing
Martin St. Louis, Tampa Bay. C’mon, he’s so cute and adorable, like a plush toy.
Loui Eriksson, Dallas. “Loui” and “Byng” go together like “peanut butter” and “jelly.”
Winner: Pavel Datsyuk, Detroit
*****
Calder Trophy
“To the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the National Hockey League. The winner is selected in a poll of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association.”
Perhaps the most egalitarian award of them all. In the six years since the lockout , the Calder has been won by a left wing (Alex Ovechkin), a center (Evgeni Malkin), a right wing (Patrick Kane), a goalie (Steve Mason), a defenseman (Tyler Myers), and last year by a center (Jeff Skinner). The finalists…
Brayden Schenn, Philadelphia. Fulfills the requirement for a good, sturdy Canadian name on the ballot
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Edmonton. Hypenated name?...check.
Nino Niederreiter, New York Islanders. Half the voters will probably think they’re voting for “Scott Niedermayer.”
Winner: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Edmonton
*****
Norris Trophy
“To the defense player who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position.”
For a while, the language might have been “To the defense player from Sweden whose name rhymes with ‘Picklas Midstrom.’” Then, after the six-year run by Nicklas Lidsrom ended, it might have read, “to the defense player not named ‘Mike Green.’” Since Picklas…uh, Nicklas Lidstrom won it last year, one wonders if we are going back to an earlier time. The finalists…
Shea Weber, Nashville. Hey, he’s GOT to win it sometime, and he’s motivated…it’s a contract year.
Duncan Keith, Chicago. When in doubt, go with a guy who’s won it before
Tyler Myers, Buffalo. If by “Tyler Myers,” you mean, “Nicklas Lidstrom?”
Winner: Shea Weber, Nashville
*****
Vezina Trophy
“To the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position as voted by the general managers of all NHL clubs.”
The unspoken part of that citation is, “to the goalkeeper in the Eastern Conference…” In the last 17 seasons the Vezina was awarded, an Eastern Conference goalie won it 16 times. Only Miikka Kiprusoff interrupted that string, in 2006. Here is how long that string is. When Ed Belfour won it for the second time in three years in 1993, he did it with what today would be the pedestrian numbers of a 2.59 goals against average (which would have been tied for 23rd in the league last year) and a .906 save percentage (tied for 34th). The finalists…
Pekka Rinne, Nashville. Obligatory Western Conference goalie who will be the pick of all the “smart” pundits, but who has no chance of winning.
Tim Thomas, Boston. Six times in the last 21 years, the Vezina was won by the previous year’s winner; Thomas HAS to be on the ballot.
Ryan Miller, Buffalo. Three times in the last 18 seasons it was won by the goalie who won it two years earlier.
Winner: Ryan Miller, Buffalo
*****
Ted Lindsay Award
“To the National Hockey League's most outstanding player in the regular season as judged by the members of the NHL Players Association.”
They might as well have the ceremony for this award at the Anchor Bar in Buffalo, because in the last 12 years (including those in which it was awarded as the “Lester B. Pearson Award”), it was won ten times by wingers. It is worth noting that it has been won only once by a defenseman – Bobby Orr in 1975. Players don’t much like defensemen, it seems. The finalists…
Daniel Sedin, Vancouver. Why not Henrik? Because Henrik’s a center, silly.
Alex Ovechkin, Washington. Order is restored in the universe.
Martin St. Louis, Tampa Bay. Hey, he might be cute and adorable, like a plush toy, but he can play.
Winner: Alex Ovechkin, Washigton
*****
Hart Memorial Trophy
“To the player judged to be the most valuable to his team. The winner is selected in a poll of the Professional Hockey Writers' Association in all NHL cities at the end of the regular season.”
Much is made about whether goaltenders should win, or even be eligible, for the league’s most valuable player award. But what about defensemen? Since Bobby Orr won it three-times running from 1970-1972, how many defensemen won it over the next 38 seasons? One – Chris Pronger in 2000. The finalists…
Daniel Sedin, Vancouver. In for the Lindsay, in for the Hart
Alex Ovechkin, Washington. Alexander Semin might have been nominated, except… wait for it… he has no “Hart.”
Pavel Datsyuk, Detroit. Three Selkes, Four Byngs. Maybe it’s time that the "Carhartt Hardest Working Player of the Month, December 2007" (it’s true…look it up) gets this one?
Winner: Alex Ovechkin, Washington
Friday, October 07, 2011
Your 2011-2012 Prognostos -- The Western Conference
We did the Eastern Conference prognostos, now we head to the…
Western Conference
1. Vancouver Canucks
Last year’s Stanley Cup runner-up will not be the best team in the West, but they will finish atop the conference standings. Their path through their own division – the Northwest – will be easier than that of their principal competitors, San Jose in the Pacific and the Chicago Blackhawks in the Central. Not that the Canucks are a pushover. They return with their roster almost entirely intact. Ryan Kesler will not score 40 goals again (41, actually), but there are still the Sedins to challenge the 100-point mark. The only real question mark is whether Roberto Luongo suffers his own Stanley Cup hangover after allowing 18 goals in four losses in the Stanley Cup final. Last year Luongo appeared in the fewest games in a regular season in nine years (60, compared to 58 in 2001-2002). Cory Schneider appeared in a career high 25 games last season. That convergence will continue.
2. San Jose Sharks
In Waiting for Godot, Vladimir and Estragon wait in vain for this Godot chap to arrive on the scene. They were practicing for waiting on San Jose to appear in a Stanley Cup final. San Jose’s formula – win pre-season plaudits from pundits, win a lot of games from October to March, drop out of the playoffs before the blossoms are off the trees, rinse, repeat. They’ve been doing that since 2003-2004 (average record, 48-23-11; number of conference finals won, zero). To their credit, they realized it wasn’t working and retooled in significant ways (Dany Heatley and Devin Setoguchi, out; Martin Havlat, in). Like that team that plays on the Potomac River, what they do from October to March isn’t going to impress anyone anymore. Let’s see what they do in May and, if they’re still around, in June.
3. Chicago Blackhawks
The Hawks followed up their Stanley Cup in 2010 by sleepwalking through a lot of the 2010-2011 season before playing their last 26 games to a 16-7-3 record and an eight-seed in the West. Those early cobwebs won’t be there this time around. The Blackhawks have a certain familiarity insofar as their expected performance level among their skaters is concerned. One expects that Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp, and Marian Hossa will fall in around the 70-point mark. Duncan Keith and Keith Seabrook will combine for 100 points or so. The wild card is Corey Crawford in goal. He led all rookie goalies in wins, was second among them in goals against average, and was third in save percentage. He had more than a respectable 2.21 GAA and .927 save percentage in a first round loss to Vancouver last spring. What he has for a second act will be the missing element to be defined in the Blackhawks’ effort to return to the finals.
4. Detroit Red Wings
Someday, the Red Wings’ run is going to come to an end. Twenty consecutive seasons in the playoffs, four Cups, six appearances in the Finals. An average of 47 wins a season over that 20-year period (including 33 in a 48-game season in 1995). That streak will not end this year. Whether they finish ahead of Chicago or not will largely depend on whether the Wings can: a) get another top notch season from Nicklas Lidstrom, and b) if they can fill the hole made with the retirement of Brian Rafalski. That is important because the Wings got 110 points and 20 goals out of that pair last season. Ian White might the player to watch here. In stops at Calgary, Carolina, and San Jose last season he was 4-22-26, plus-3, in 78 games.
5. Los Angeles Kings
The Kings might not finish the season on top of the Western Conference, or even the Pacific Division, for that matter. But they might be the most dangerous team in the West next spring. By that time, newcomers Mike Richards, Dustin Penner (a late arrival last season), and Simon Gagne will have a season to become acclimated to the left coast and their new teammates, and Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson will have another 82 games of experience. And Jonathan Quick could continue that upward arc that saw his GAA drop from 2.54 to 2.24 last season, his save percentage jump from .907 to .918, and his shutout total rise from four to six. He might be the best goaltender in the Western Conference.
6. Nashville Predators
There might not be a consistently better-coached team in the NHL than the Predators, nor one that more consistently applies a philosophy to its effort. Without high end talent since, well, forever, the Predators rely on balance, hard work from all four lines and all three defensive pairs, and solid goaltending. There might not be a player with more than 50 points (there wasn’t last year) or a player with more than 25 goals (there wasn’t last year), but with Pekka Rinne in goal, Shea Weber and Ryan Suter anchoring the defense, and Barry Trotz still behind the bench, 100 points is not out of the question (they finished with 99 last season).
7. Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks have what might be the best first line in all the NHL with Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Bobby Ryan, not to mention a legendary goal scorer in Teemu Selanne pulling down 18 minutes a night. The iffy areas for the Ducks are on defense in their own end and Jonas Hiller, who is among the more talented goalies in the league, but who suffered bouts of vertigo last season that caused him to miss more than 20 games, including six in the post-season. He says he is over it, but it remains to be demonstrated that he is.
8. St. Louis Blues
The Blues finished ten points out of the party last season, but that was without T.J. Oshie (missed 33 games) and David Perron (missed 72 games). Perron is trying to return from a concussion and is probably the biggest question mark. Not far behind is goaltender Jaroslav Halak, who had a somewhat disappointing 2.48 GAA and .910 save percentage after a big year in Montreal that earned him a big payday with the Blues in free agency.
The rest…
9. Calgary Flames
The Flames finished three points out of a playoff spot last season. But it is hard to see the Flames improving on that with the lack of balance they displayed on offense last season, entirely too dependent on Jarome Iginla (43-43-86) for consistent scoring. Then there is the matter of goalie Miikka Kiprusoff, who saw his GAA swell from 2.31 to 2.63 and his save percentage shrink from .920 to .906. Seeing as how he is about to turn 35 and has logged more than 4,150 minutes in each of the last six seasons, one wonders if he isn’t running low in the gas tank.
10. Columbus Blue Jackets
The Jackets finished 24th in offense last season. Adding Jeff Carter should take some heat off Rick Nash, letting both big forwards contribute more goals to the Columbus effort. But the Jackets were also 26th in the league on defense. And that means goalie Steve Mason has to prove that his Calder Trophy rookie season was not a sign of being a one-hit wonder. He’s had goals against averages over 3.00 the last two seasons and save percentages of .901 in both seasons.
11. Dallas Stars
Brad Richards is gone and with it the likelihood that the Stars improve on last year’s ninth place finish in the West. Loui Eriksson will do his level best to prevent a slide – he finished only one goal and three points behind Richards in scoring for the Stars and was a plus-10 to Richards’ plus-1. He and Mike Ribiero (19-52-71) will probably have to have career scoring years to give the Stars a chance to get into the top eight. Getting Jamie Benn to show a similar improvement this season to the one he had in his second NHL season last year (up 15 points from his rookie year) wouldn’t hurt, either.
12. Phoenix Coyotes
Between goaltenders Jason LaBarbera and Mike Smith, the most wins either has in the NHL in one season is LaBarbera’s 17 wins with Los Angeles in 2007-2008. Last season, Ilya Bryzgalov had his 17th win on January 15th. That is the difference between this year’s Coyotes and last year’s edition. And it is magnified by the fact that Phoenix is not a team that is going to score a lot. Last season they had one 20-goal scorer and one 60-point player. Both happened to be Shane Doan, who while being a warrior, also happens to be about to turn 35 (Monday). This season will test the wits of coach Dave Tippett.
13. Minnesota Wild
These are not your father’s Wild. These are not even last season’s Wild. New coach (Mike Yeo), new attitude (bringing in Dany Heatley and Devin Setoguchi to perk up the offense). But after Mikko Koivu (17-45-62, plus-4, last season), where is the depth at center? And the defense looks as if it will be overmatched on most nights. Folks are going to find out just how good a goalie Niklas Backstrom is. He’s going to get a lot of work.
14. Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers will start the season with four top-ten overall draft picks on their roster. That would be impressive but for the fact that those four picks were taken over the last five years, a reflection of how bad the Oilers have been and how much further they have to come as those youngsters mature. They will be better late than they are early, but not nearly enough to raise them from the lower echelon of the West.
15. Colorado Avalanche
No team in the West will capture the attention of Caps fans over the course of the season more than Colorado. For the Caps own the Avalanche’s top pick in next year’s draft, and it could be a lottery pick if the Avs finish in the bottom five in the league. There is also the matter of the Avs’ new goaltender, Jean-Sebastien Giguere. He’s going to get more than the 33 games of work he got last year in Toronto, because the Avs other new goaltender, Semyon Varlamov (obtained from Washington for that top pick in 2012), has not played as many as 33 games in either of his full seasons in the NHL (his high is 27), a product of repeated leg and groin injuries that have took him out of the lineup in Washington. And Colorado’s defense is such that a goaltender is going to be tested physically. That’s not a good mix.
Western Conference
1. Vancouver Canucks
Last year’s Stanley Cup runner-up will not be the best team in the West, but they will finish atop the conference standings. Their path through their own division – the Northwest – will be easier than that of their principal competitors, San Jose in the Pacific and the Chicago Blackhawks in the Central. Not that the Canucks are a pushover. They return with their roster almost entirely intact. Ryan Kesler will not score 40 goals again (41, actually), but there are still the Sedins to challenge the 100-point mark. The only real question mark is whether Roberto Luongo suffers his own Stanley Cup hangover after allowing 18 goals in four losses in the Stanley Cup final. Last year Luongo appeared in the fewest games in a regular season in nine years (60, compared to 58 in 2001-2002). Cory Schneider appeared in a career high 25 games last season. That convergence will continue.
2. San Jose Sharks
In Waiting for Godot, Vladimir and Estragon wait in vain for this Godot chap to arrive on the scene. They were practicing for waiting on San Jose to appear in a Stanley Cup final. San Jose’s formula – win pre-season plaudits from pundits, win a lot of games from October to March, drop out of the playoffs before the blossoms are off the trees, rinse, repeat. They’ve been doing that since 2003-2004 (average record, 48-23-11; number of conference finals won, zero). To their credit, they realized it wasn’t working and retooled in significant ways (Dany Heatley and Devin Setoguchi, out; Martin Havlat, in). Like that team that plays on the Potomac River, what they do from October to March isn’t going to impress anyone anymore. Let’s see what they do in May and, if they’re still around, in June.
3. Chicago Blackhawks
The Hawks followed up their Stanley Cup in 2010 by sleepwalking through a lot of the 2010-2011 season before playing their last 26 games to a 16-7-3 record and an eight-seed in the West. Those early cobwebs won’t be there this time around. The Blackhawks have a certain familiarity insofar as their expected performance level among their skaters is concerned. One expects that Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp, and Marian Hossa will fall in around the 70-point mark. Duncan Keith and Keith Seabrook will combine for 100 points or so. The wild card is Corey Crawford in goal. He led all rookie goalies in wins, was second among them in goals against average, and was third in save percentage. He had more than a respectable 2.21 GAA and .927 save percentage in a first round loss to Vancouver last spring. What he has for a second act will be the missing element to be defined in the Blackhawks’ effort to return to the finals.
4. Detroit Red Wings
Someday, the Red Wings’ run is going to come to an end. Twenty consecutive seasons in the playoffs, four Cups, six appearances in the Finals. An average of 47 wins a season over that 20-year period (including 33 in a 48-game season in 1995). That streak will not end this year. Whether they finish ahead of Chicago or not will largely depend on whether the Wings can: a) get another top notch season from Nicklas Lidstrom, and b) if they can fill the hole made with the retirement of Brian Rafalski. That is important because the Wings got 110 points and 20 goals out of that pair last season. Ian White might the player to watch here. In stops at Calgary, Carolina, and San Jose last season he was 4-22-26, plus-3, in 78 games.
5. Los Angeles Kings
The Kings might not finish the season on top of the Western Conference, or even the Pacific Division, for that matter. But they might be the most dangerous team in the West next spring. By that time, newcomers Mike Richards, Dustin Penner (a late arrival last season), and Simon Gagne will have a season to become acclimated to the left coast and their new teammates, and Drew Doughty and Jack Johnson will have another 82 games of experience. And Jonathan Quick could continue that upward arc that saw his GAA drop from 2.54 to 2.24 last season, his save percentage jump from .907 to .918, and his shutout total rise from four to six. He might be the best goaltender in the Western Conference.
6. Nashville Predators
There might not be a consistently better-coached team in the NHL than the Predators, nor one that more consistently applies a philosophy to its effort. Without high end talent since, well, forever, the Predators rely on balance, hard work from all four lines and all three defensive pairs, and solid goaltending. There might not be a player with more than 50 points (there wasn’t last year) or a player with more than 25 goals (there wasn’t last year), but with Pekka Rinne in goal, Shea Weber and Ryan Suter anchoring the defense, and Barry Trotz still behind the bench, 100 points is not out of the question (they finished with 99 last season).
7. Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks have what might be the best first line in all the NHL with Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Bobby Ryan, not to mention a legendary goal scorer in Teemu Selanne pulling down 18 minutes a night. The iffy areas for the Ducks are on defense in their own end and Jonas Hiller, who is among the more talented goalies in the league, but who suffered bouts of vertigo last season that caused him to miss more than 20 games, including six in the post-season. He says he is over it, but it remains to be demonstrated that he is.
8. St. Louis Blues
The Blues finished ten points out of the party last season, but that was without T.J. Oshie (missed 33 games) and David Perron (missed 72 games). Perron is trying to return from a concussion and is probably the biggest question mark. Not far behind is goaltender Jaroslav Halak, who had a somewhat disappointing 2.48 GAA and .910 save percentage after a big year in Montreal that earned him a big payday with the Blues in free agency.
The rest…
9. Calgary Flames
The Flames finished three points out of a playoff spot last season. But it is hard to see the Flames improving on that with the lack of balance they displayed on offense last season, entirely too dependent on Jarome Iginla (43-43-86) for consistent scoring. Then there is the matter of goalie Miikka Kiprusoff, who saw his GAA swell from 2.31 to 2.63 and his save percentage shrink from .920 to .906. Seeing as how he is about to turn 35 and has logged more than 4,150 minutes in each of the last six seasons, one wonders if he isn’t running low in the gas tank.
10. Columbus Blue Jackets
The Jackets finished 24th in offense last season. Adding Jeff Carter should take some heat off Rick Nash, letting both big forwards contribute more goals to the Columbus effort. But the Jackets were also 26th in the league on defense. And that means goalie Steve Mason has to prove that his Calder Trophy rookie season was not a sign of being a one-hit wonder. He’s had goals against averages over 3.00 the last two seasons and save percentages of .901 in both seasons.
11. Dallas Stars
Brad Richards is gone and with it the likelihood that the Stars improve on last year’s ninth place finish in the West. Loui Eriksson will do his level best to prevent a slide – he finished only one goal and three points behind Richards in scoring for the Stars and was a plus-10 to Richards’ plus-1. He and Mike Ribiero (19-52-71) will probably have to have career scoring years to give the Stars a chance to get into the top eight. Getting Jamie Benn to show a similar improvement this season to the one he had in his second NHL season last year (up 15 points from his rookie year) wouldn’t hurt, either.
12. Phoenix Coyotes
Between goaltenders Jason LaBarbera and Mike Smith, the most wins either has in the NHL in one season is LaBarbera’s 17 wins with Los Angeles in 2007-2008. Last season, Ilya Bryzgalov had his 17th win on January 15th. That is the difference between this year’s Coyotes and last year’s edition. And it is magnified by the fact that Phoenix is not a team that is going to score a lot. Last season they had one 20-goal scorer and one 60-point player. Both happened to be Shane Doan, who while being a warrior, also happens to be about to turn 35 (Monday). This season will test the wits of coach Dave Tippett.
13. Minnesota Wild
These are not your father’s Wild. These are not even last season’s Wild. New coach (Mike Yeo), new attitude (bringing in Dany Heatley and Devin Setoguchi to perk up the offense). But after Mikko Koivu (17-45-62, plus-4, last season), where is the depth at center? And the defense looks as if it will be overmatched on most nights. Folks are going to find out just how good a goalie Niklas Backstrom is. He’s going to get a lot of work.
14. Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers will start the season with four top-ten overall draft picks on their roster. That would be impressive but for the fact that those four picks were taken over the last five years, a reflection of how bad the Oilers have been and how much further they have to come as those youngsters mature. They will be better late than they are early, but not nearly enough to raise them from the lower echelon of the West.
15. Colorado Avalanche
No team in the West will capture the attention of Caps fans over the course of the season more than Colorado. For the Caps own the Avalanche’s top pick in next year’s draft, and it could be a lottery pick if the Avs finish in the bottom five in the league. There is also the matter of the Avs’ new goaltender, Jean-Sebastien Giguere. He’s going to get more than the 33 games of work he got last year in Toronto, because the Avs other new goaltender, Semyon Varlamov (obtained from Washington for that top pick in 2012), has not played as many as 33 games in either of his full seasons in the NHL (his high is 27), a product of repeated leg and groin injuries that have took him out of the lineup in Washington. And Colorado’s defense is such that a goaltender is going to be tested physically. That’s not a good mix.
Wednesday, October 05, 2011
Your 2011-2012 Prognostos -- The Eastern Conference
Having covered the Caps’ previews, what about prognostications for the rest of the league? Glad you asked. We’ll start with the…
Eastern Conference:
1. Washington Capitals
Salary caps, the draft, free agency all contribute to a sense of parity in the league, and one of the ways that is reflected is in raising questions about even the best teams on paper. The Caps are one of those teams, and this is arguably the best team they have ever iced – on paper, especially since they inked (in Tomas Vokoun) the lights-out goalie they haven’t had since Olaf Kolzig was carrying the team to a Cup final in 1998. But disappointing exits in the last three years have uncovered a lack of killer instinct in this team. The Caps have lacked the “f*** you and the horse you rode in on” gene. Whether they have changed their genetic makeup with the additions of Joel Ward, Troy Brouwer, Jeff Halpern, Roman Hamrlik, and Vokoun, and/or whether that missing gene can finally express itself in the person of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green, or Alexander Semin is the question about this team. It really is the only thing that could be lacking. They have the most talented team in the East – on paper.
2. Buffalo Sabres
Two things will conspire to make the Sabres the number two seed. First, they are deeper than they have been in recent years with the additions of Robyn Regehr, Ville Leino, and Christian Ehrhoff. None of them, by themselves, are game changers, but they could do the same kinds of things for the undercard of the Sabres lineup that the additions the Caps implemented might accomplish. And that might take some pressure off goalie Ryan Miller to be the man every night. The other thing is the Stanley Cup hangover. You know the drill… no team has repeated as Cup champion since the Red Wings did it in 1998. But there is more, starting with the Detroit Red Wings’ Cup win in 2002, the Cup winner of the previous year failed to get out of Round 1 the following year five times, and one other team (Carolina) failed to qualify for the playoffs. Only once did a team go past the second round. Boston will not be immune to that effect and Buffalo will be the beneficiary in the Northeast.
3. Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins finished with the fourth highest point total in the league last season without the services of Sidney Crosby for 41 games and Evgeni Malkin for 38. It speaks to the motivational talent of head coach Dan Bylsma and the virtue of hard work. Crosby’s return is assumed, but the precise details are iffy. Malkin is coming off a significant knee injury. So, for the Pens, the question is, can they muster up that level of effort again? They’ll have to as they wait for James Neal to be that scoring winger the club has lacked. In a division having teams with more question marks than the Pens have, they should win a battle of attrition to finish atop the Atlantic and a three-seed.
4. Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers will be the best of a tightly grouped lot in the middle of the other conference playoff eligibles, but not because of anything they do. Rather the difference between themselves and the Rangers for second in the Atlantic, behind Pittsburgh, will be the absence of Ranger defenseman Marc Staal for the foreseeable future. They’ll be that close. We do not buy into the notion that Ilya Bryzgalov is going to take South Philly by storm, or that a team losing Mike Richards and Jeff Carter and gaining a soon-to-be 40-year old Jaromir Jagr as a first line forward is an elite team. They’ll be good and hard to play against, but not in the top-tier of clubs.
5. Boston Bruins
Yes, they are the defending Stanley Cup champions. They also finished the 2010-2011 regular season with a so-so 8-6-4 record and were an overtime from being eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. Score one for timing and resilience. But it does not make them the class of the East. Tim Thomas, though, probably keeps his position as class of the East in goal. Everything springs from him. He had a 1.40 goals against average in Bruin wins last season. Boston lacks an elite offensive player, but made up for that with balance last season – 12 players with at least ten goals, eight with at least 40 points. It was a successful formula last season, but it might have too many moving parts to swim upstream against a Stanley Cup hangover, especially early.
6. New York Rangers
These are not your father’s Rangers, if by “father’s,” you mean circa 2000. This is a gritty, nail-spitting group that plays good defense and has world-class goaltending in Henrik Lundqvist. Adding Brad Richards and the further development of players like Brandon Dubinsky, Ryan Callahan, and Artem Anisimov might have meant a 10-12 point jump in the standings. But with Marc Staal still suffering the after effects of a concussion sustained last February, the loss of the cornerstone of their defense will be a big hole in that lineup. If Richards and Marian Gaborik find some instant chemistry, it could mitigate that loss.
7. Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay had five skaters play all 82 games last season and another seven play at least 75 games. Health was not an issue. Not all of those players return, but if the Lightning are to keep pace with the Caps they will have to have a similar run of good luck concerning health. This is a team that could finish anywhere from a top-three seed to out of the money altogether. What determines that is whether Dwayne Roloson can fend off Father Time another year in goal at age 42. If Roloson falters, it will take all of the considerable offensive gifts of Steven Stamkos and Martin St. Louis to qualify for the post season.
8. Toronto Maple Leafs
Yup, they’re back. David Steckel is the last piece. OK, we’re kidding, but the Leafs showed signs of improvement late last season with a 10-7-2 finish after March 1st (that’s a 95-point pace). A lot of that was rookie goalie James Reimer, who won 20 games for Toronto last season, all of them in the 2011 portion of the season. If the Leafs get improvement from Mikhail Grabovski (58 points last season), Phil Kessel (32 goals), and Nikolai Kulemin (57 points), the Leafs could surprise some folks and make their first playoff appearance since before the lockout. What might hold them back is an injured Nazem Kadri (knee), who otherwise has had difficulty justifying his seventh overall pick in 2009.
The rest…
9. Montreal Canadiens. Small and quick with a veteran defense and good goaltending gets you to the playoffs. But lose one of those legs of the stool, and it falls over. Losing Roman Hamrlik and James Wisniewski will hurt, not to mention Hal Gill (36) and Jaroslav Spacek (37) being another year older.
10. Carolina Hurricanes. They always hang around with guys like Eric Staal and Cam Ward in the lineup, and Jeff Skinner was a find last year as a rookie. But they are not deep enough, especially on defense, to crack the top-eight.
11. New Jersey Devils. Last season was like a sandwich with a tasty filling made with moldy bread. They had that 23-3-2 run in the middle of the season that got them into contention, but before that they were 10-29-2, and after it they were 5-7-1. A year later, it is a team with a new coach (Peter DeBoer) and a team that is not all that different from the one that finished dead last in offense. And while it might not be the last year for the legend in goal, Martin Brodeur can see it from his crease. Pride will get them this far.
12. New York Islanders. This team is not that far away from being a playoff contender. The arc of their season might resemble that of the 2006-2007 Capitals, a team that was in the thick of it for 30 games but faded when health issues and lack of talent caught up with them. The most entertaining story might be how they handle the Rick DiPietro/Evgeny Nabokov/Al Montoya goaltending carousel. Right now, they are light a forward on the roster, choosing to carry all three goalies.
13. Winnipeg Jets. The Jets will come flying off the runway as the adrenaline of a new city and rabid fans bear them up. But they will run out of fuel by Thanksgiving. They are still the Atlanta Thrashers – 20th last year in scoring, 29th in defense, 27th in penalty killing, one player with more than 20 goals. They just are not deep enough to challenge over an 82-game schedule.
14. Florida Panthers. Florida is where all the retirees from the north settle to spend their golden years. Seems the logic applies to the hockey team, too, in a way. Tomas Kopecky, Jose Theodore, Scottie Upsall, Ed Jovanovski, Marcel Goc, Tomas Fleischmann, Sean Bergenheim, and Matt Bradley. Free agents all, forsaking more northern latitudes to settle in south Florida. Nice try, but that’s not going to be enough to move the needle a lot higher than the 27th-ranked scoring team last season.
15. Ottawa Senators. 29th in scoring last season, 24th in defense. They were the worst even strength team in the league. They had 11 players who were minus-10 or worse, three at worse than minus-25. They had one 20-goal scorer and one 50-point player. Both happened to be Jason Spezza, who also happens to have missed 42 games the last two seasons. And Daniel Alfredsson’s games played has gone from 79 to 70 to 54 the last three years. He will be 39 in December. It will be a long winter in Ottawa.
Washington Capitals 2011-2012 Previews: Tomas Vokoun
Tomas Vokoun
Theme: "There comes a time when all the cosmic tumblers have clicked into place, and the universe opens itself up for a few seconds to show you what's possible."
-- Terence Mann (from “Field of Dreams”)
You’ve played 36,082 minutes as an NHL goaltender. Only 31 goaltenders in the history of the league have played more. Among those 31 goaltenders ahead are names such as Richter, Smith, Khabibulin, Osgood, Hasek, Barrasso, Vernon. Names that have in common their having been engraved on the Stanley Cup. Meanwhile, you’ve toiled those minutes compiling records like 12-18-4, 13-17-5, 23-28-11. Your lot has been to be the iron man, recognized as one of the best goalies in the game averaging 62 appearances a year for largely mediocre teams. You have a total of 679 minutes in playoff competition over a career that has spanned 13 seasons. Two playoff series, one over in five games, the other in six.
And then, the cosmic tumblers click into place, opening up the universe for a few seconds to show you what’s possible. Those tumblers clicking into place are the 30 positions for starting goaltenders in the National Hockey League, and in doing so, a lot of those positions – especially those on teams with Stanley Cup aspirations – are filled. But in Washington there is a team still green in goal and guilty of perennial disappointment to their management, their fans, and themselves.
In those few figurative seconds, Tomas Vokoun signed a one-year/$1.5 million contract with the Capitals, the thought being (as his agent put it), “He’s been on teams with no chance to win for a very long time. The opportunity to compete for a Stanley Cup means a great deal to him.”
How does Vokoun take advantage of that opportunity? To start, he is fourth among active goaltenders in games and minutes played. Each of the three ahead of him have played in a Stanley Cup final, and two of them have Cups on their resume. He is tenth among active goalies in goals against average, five of those ahead of him having played in a final and two of them having won Cups. He is fifth on the active list in save percentage, third in shutouts. He not only has the experience, but has performed at a high level over that long run to place himself among the most proficient goaltenders in the league.
Then there is the matter of the effect of playing with also-ran teams. In eight seasons in Nashville, Vokoun appeared in 383 games, posting a 2.54 GAA, .913 save percentage, and 21 shutouts, doing it facing 29 shots per 60 minutes. But in his last four seasons, spent with Florida, Vokoun upped his save percentage to .923 over 248 games while facing a whopping 33.2 shots every 60 minutes. Compare that to, say, Roberto Luongo, who has faced an average of 29.1 shots per 60 minutes over the last four seasons in Vancouver. If Vokoun saved 92.3 percent of that shot workload his goals against average would be 2.24. It is worth noting, the Caps gave up an average of 29.0 shots per game last season.
Fearless’ Take: Vokoun doesn’t have a save percentage lower than .919 in the six seasons since the lockout ended. Six Capitals goaltenders in that time have played in more than half the team’s games, and the highest save percentage among them was .914 – the save percentage posted by Michal Neuvirth last season.
Cheerless’ Take: Since the NHL went to a seven-game format for all playoff series beginning in 1987, only three goaltenders age 35 or older have won a Cup and recorded all 16 wins in the process – Patrick Roy, Dominik Hasek, and Tim Thomas. Vokoun turned 35 on July 2nd.
The Big Question… After having toiled for so many middle-of-the-pack (or worse) teams, are the Caps “too rich” for Vokoun’s blood?
Being very very good for teams that do not do so well in wins and losses imparts a degree of anonymity on that player. People who pay attention to the game know that Vokoun has been a very efficient goalie in terms of his own performance since the lockout ended. But the light has never shined too brightly on the NHL team on which he was playing, either. Now, Vokoun comes to a contender and is widely seen as the piece that has been missing from recent editions of the Caps – a slam-the-door goaltender. Will the increased attention have an effect? Well, it’s not as if Vokoun has come into pressure situations and folded like a freshly laundered jersey. In 2010 he was 7-1-0, 1.57, .944 in the World Championships, including a 35-save effort on 36 shots in the final, won by his Czech Republic team. He also has a gold medal from the 2005 Worlds and a bronze medal from the 2006 Olympics.
In the end…
Only once in the 36-year history of the franchise have the Caps had a true shutdown goaltender who was successful in the playoffs. In the first three rounds of the 1998 playoffs Olaf Kolzig was 12-5 with four shutouts and was 4-2 in overtime games to lead the Caps to the finals. Much more often than not, the Caps have been the victim of, but have rarely had themselves the “hot goaltender.” This year, Vokoun is expected to fill that role. But not to be the iron man who has to bear the burden of 60 or more games to get to the playoffs. If all goes well, Vokoun and Michal Neuvirth might split the workload, 50-30 or so, and that could mean a sharp and fresher Vokoun for the post season. Hopefully, just in time for those last tumblers to finally click into place after 37 seasons.
Projection: 56 games, 32-15-6, 2.29, .923, 5 shutouts
Washington Capitals 2011-2012 Previews: Michal Neuvirth
Theme: “We are never ripe till we have been made so by suffering”
-- Henry Ward Beecher
Over the two seasons preceding 2010-2011, goaltender Michal Neuvirth broke in his skates at the NHL level, appearing in 22 games and posting a respectable 11-5-0 record, a 2.80 goals against average, and a .910 save percentage. But it was in Hershey where he was honing his game in earnest. Not so much in the regular season, where he appeared in only 39 games over two seasons, posting a record of 24-11-2, 2.45, .912, with two shutouts. It was in the post-season where Neuvirth established himself as a bona fide prospect. In 40 playoff games over two years, Neuvirth was 30-10, 1.98, .927, with five shutouts, leading the Bears to consecutive Calder Cup championships, and adding a Jack Butterfield Trophy as most valuable player in the playoffs in 2009 for good measure.
Neuvrith came to the 2010-2011 season ready to do battle with Semyon Varlamov to see which of the kiddie goaltenders would emerge as the number one goalie for the Capitals. Varlamov being, well, Varlamov, he was unavailable to open the season due to injury. Neuvirth seized the opportunity, appearing in the Caps’ first 13 games of the season (ok, there was that 47 second “appearance” against Boston), posting an 8-3-0 record, with a 2.41 goals against average and .914 save percentage and a shutout over Carolina. His performance propelled the Caps to a good start, and put Varlamov in a position as backup goaltender from which he would not permanently recover.
Neuvirth would go on to finish third among all rookie goaltenders in wins (27), third in goals against average (2.45), fifth in save percentage, and tied for first in shutouts with four (minimum 30 appearances). And things were looking good in the first round of the playoffs. Neuvirth, who had yet to lose a playoff series as a professional, posted a sparkling 4-1, 1.38, .946 record against the Rangers with one shutout.
But things came crashing down in Round 2. In the four-game sweep at the hands of the Tampa Bay Lightning, Neuvirth was anything but sharp with a 3.74 goals against average and .867 save percentage. Whatever his accomplishments in Hershey or promise displayed up to that point, he showed that perhaps his game had not sufficiently ripened to be that go-to guy in the post-season who makes all the stops he should and a lot that he shouldn’t in stealing games here and there in the tournament.
It was, at an individual level, a successful year for Neuvirth in that he showed what he is capable of when he puts his whole game together. But he could not put it together consistently enough when the margin for error was reduced to a sliver.
Fearless’ Take: Neuvirth finished strong, going 8-2-0, 2.17, .924, with one shutout down the stretch. And, you might think that a .885 save percentage in defending against a power play is altogether unimpressive. But it was one tick below Ryan Miller (.886), above that of the $51 million man in Philadelphia (Ilya Bryzgalov’s .881 with Phoenix), and far above the darling of Broadway, Henrik Lundqvist (.873).
Cheerless’ Take: He didn’t exactly sparkle against playoff teams. He was 7-3-2 in 16 appearances, 2.92, .900, and two shutouts (both against Pittsburgh. He was a Penguin killer, giving up only two goals on 88 shots for the season, but that meant he had a save percentage of only .877 against the other six teams in the East that made the playoffs.
The Big Question… How will Neuvirth cope with being in the shadow of Tomas Vokoun this season?
The Capitals could be the only team in the NHL this season on which both goaltenders hail from the Czech Republic. Even though both come from the northwest region of the country, there isn't that much else in common. There are almost 12 years separating them in age, and Tomas Vokoun has appeared in almost ten times as many NHL regular season games (632) as has Neuvirth (70). That kind of experience can be very valuable to a youngster such as Neuvirth, who is much closer to establishing himself as a top-tier NHL goaltender than a green prospect might be in this situation. This year could, in a way, be the goaltending equivalent “finishing school” for Neuvirth. Vokoun could be the example for how to deal with the months-long grind of an NHL season with its ups and downs, and for how to develop the mental discipline and attitude to cope with it effectively that Neuvirth did not have last season.
In the end…
It is probably unfair to refer to Neuvirth as a “backup” or the “number two” goaltender. He is more of a “1A” goalie who can ensure that there will be little or no dropoff in the event Vokoun needs a breather or is incapacitated. Last year, thirteen goalies appeared in 60 or more games, meaning that there was a clear “number one” and “number two” pecking order. This year, a 50-30 split would not be surprising with Neuvirth and Vokoun. The question will be whether those 30 or so appearances for Neuvirth will allow him to establish and maintain a rhythm, or if the frequency of appearances will be too unsettling.
We suspect that he is capable of weathering the tosses and turns of his schedule. This is, after all, a goalie that played on three different teams in one Canadian junior hockey season (2007-2008, with Plymouth, Windsor, and Oshawa) in addition to representing the Czech Republic in the World junior tournament. He split 30 games between Hershey and South Carolina in 2008-2009 before leading the Hershey Bears to a Calder Cup and winning the MVP award. Uncertainty is not a stranger to Neuvirth. And in the end, perhaps this experience won’t be viewed as much a step back as it is a chance to finally ripen into the goaltender the Caps can count on for the next decade.
Projection: 32 games, 16-8-3, 2.39, .916, 2 shutouts
(Photo: Associated Press)
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Tuesday, October 04, 2011
Washington Capitals 2011-2012 Previews: Dennis Wideman
Dennis Wideman
Theme: “If an injury has to be done to a man it should be so severe that his vengeance need not be feared.”
-- Niccolo Machiavelli
We are going to guess that Machiavelli was thinking of something other than hockey when he wrote “The Prince.” And if Dennis Wideman has designs of vengeance on Tuomo Ruutu, the Carolina Hurricane forward who ended Wideman’s season with the Caps 14 games after arriving from Florida in a deadline trade, we’re thinking Wideman’s desire for vengeance might be wrought on the rest of the league for having been denied a chance to go deep in the post-season after toiling for 61 games for a disappointing Panther team.
Thirteen games into his tenure with the Caps last spring, Wideman was cruising along – a goal and six assists, plus-6, and he hadn’t yet skated fewer than 22 minutes in any game. With Mike Green on the shelf with a concussion he suffered in late February, Wideman was just what the doctor ordered, so to speak. But late in the second period of his 14th game with the Caps, a doctor was what Wideman would need, although it might not have seemed so at the time. Wideman collided with Tuomo Ruutu in open ice, suffering what appeared to be a charley horse to his thigh. Coach Bruce Boudreau even remarked after the game that he was only “day-to-day” with his injury. Little did anyone know that what Wideman suffered was not a charley horse and a bruise, but compartment syndrome and a hematoma that required surgery that ended Wideman’s season.
The chance to help the Caps go deep into the playoffs in his rear view mirror, it is now a case of Wideman lending his talents to yet another Capitals push to escape the potholes of early playoff round exits. Even though Caps fans got a glimpse of what he might contribute, it was perhaps not a clear one. What the Caps have, first of all, is a minutes-eater. Only once in six seasons has Wideman averaged fewer than 20 minutes a game, and in the past four seasons hasn’t averaged fewer than 23:33 a game.
Wideman has been a respectable scorer from the point on the power play. He is 14th among defensemen in power play goals since the lockout (31). But on the other hand, he has the 21st worst plus-minus over that period (minus-31).
Only 12 defensemen have recorded more shots on goal since the lockout than Wideman. Then again, only 21 defensemen were on the ice for more goals against last year. Even though he has played for a few real dogs (a 57-point team in St. Louis in 2005-2006, a Florida team that would win only 30 games in 2010-2011 after Wideman was traded to Washignton), he has put up iffy plus-minus number in better environments (a second-worst minus-14 on a 91-point team in Boston in 2009-2010). There is something of a risk-reward aspect to Wideman’s play.
Fearless’ Take: Wideman has almost twice as many career special teams goals (37 – 35 on the power play, two shorthanded) than even strength goals (19). He is one of only ten defensemen to have recorded at least nine power play goals in a season at least twice since the lockout. In 453 career games he is 35-74-109 on the power play. Compare that with Mike Green, who is 41-72-113 in 366 games on the power play. One would be hard pressed to find a pair of blueliners with that kind of man-advantage production.
Cheerless’ Take: For all those goals he’s been scoring from the blue line he has exactly one goal in 30 playoff games on 65 shots. That’s a 1.5 percent shooting percentage.
The Big Question… How will Wideman do with fewer minutes?
Chewing up wide swaths of minutes has been a signature part of Dennis Wideman’s game over the past several years. Given that he is coming off a gruesome injury, and the Caps have a deep defense, he would seem to be penciled in as third pair (perhaps paired with Jeff Schultz). Last year, splitting time in Florida and Washington, Wideman got about 17 and a half minutes a game at even strength, another four on the power play, and two and a half on the penalty kill for his 24 minutes a game. This year, he might have his even strength time shaved to 16 minutes or so, his power play time perhaps cut in half (unless the Caps start drawing more penalties more frequently), and perhaps keeping his two minutes of penalty killing time a game. Will having his ice time cut by four minutes keep him fresher or render him stale?
In the end…
Yes, Wideman is perhaps a risk/reward defenseman, but he is not likely to be called upon to be a shutdown defenseman on this team. That duty falls to Karl Alzner and John Carlson, and he might benefit from the steadiness of a Jeff Schultz the way Mike Green has in years past. Wideman brings a knack for scoring on the power play that the Caps utterly lacked from the blue line last year. In the regular season the Capitals’ defensemen were 7-13-20 as a group, five of the goals coming from Mike Green and one by Wideman. In the playoffs they were 1-2-3 in nine games, all the scoring coming from Green. Wideman can help add to the threat from the blue line and perhaps open things up for the big forwards on the power play. That could lift the Caps from their disappointing tie for 15th in regular season power play efficiency last season and their almost embarrassing tie for 12th among 16 teams in post season power play conversion frequency. That is where Dennis Wideman might get his best chance to exact a little revenge on the league for missing out on his chance for post-season fun last year.
Projection: 76 games, 10-26-36, plus-10
(photo: Greg Fiume/Getty Images North America)
Washington Capitals 2011-2012 Previews: Jeff Schultz
Theme: “It is better to take many small steps in the right direction than to make a great leap forward only to stumble backward."
-- Chinese Proverb
Well, you can say that last year was probably a step backward on the NHL journey that is Jeff Schultz’. From a 73-game season in 2009-2010 which he set career highs in games played, assists (20), points (23), penalty minutes (32), minutes (1,450), average ice time (19:52), and a league-leading plus-50; he dropped to 1-9-10, plus-6 in 72 games. If you’re a Caps fan, you’re probably wondering if that whole plus-50 thing was a freakish occurrence or the potential for Schultz.
OK, you can stop laughing now. We get it. Schultz remains something of Caps fans’ personal whipping boy, the source of all disappointment, the cause of all things bad that befall the Caps. But Schultz is also the only Caps defenseman on the current roster who has posted five consecutive “plus” seasons (he has never had a minus season in the NHL). And we get that too – “plus/minus” is a flawed statistic. But when he does something in that category that no Cap has done over five years, it isn’t exactly a liability.
In last season’s results, Schultz faced a level of competition barely different from the level he faced in 2009-2010 (he ranked third among Caps defensemen in both seasons among those playing at least 50 games). What he did not benefit from, though, was strength of teammates. He had the strongest quality of teammates among Caps defensemen in the 2009-2010 season, but had only the third strongest in 2010-2011 (numbers from behindthenet.ca). But even with that, his Corsi value relative to quality or teammates dropped only slightly, but his rank improved from second among Caps defensemen in 2009-2010 to the top spot in 2010-2011. Given that Schultz contributed almost no offense of his own from the blue line in 2010-2011 (last among all Caps defensemen playing in at least 50 games in points/60 minutes), it reflected an understated responsibility in tending to business in his own zone.
Fearless’ Take: Schultz struggled in the first half of the season with consistency. He was 0-5-5, minus-1 in his first 38 games, but uncharacteristically had two instances of four consecutive “minus” games (the Caps were 2-4-2 in those games). But after his second span of four consecutive “minus” games, Schultz finished the last 34 games of his season 1-4-5, plus-7, and only twice had as many as two consecutive games on the minus side of the ledger.
Cheerless’ Take: His performance against teams in the East that made the playoffs might not be what it seems. He was 0-3-3, even, against those teams, but he was 0-1-1, plus three in three games against Pittsburgh. That made him 0-2-2, minus-3 in the other 24 games. And, although he has had occasional injury problems in the post-season, he is only 0-1-1, minus-3 in 19 career playoff games.
The Big Question… Was that plus-50 in 2009-2010 a blessing or a curse?
In the last 20 years in the NHL, only four defensemen have reached the plus-50 mark for a season – Scott Stevens, Chris Pronger, Vladimir Konstantinov, and Jeff Schultz. A hall-of-famer, a hall-of-famer in waiting, a potential hall-of-famer whose career was tragically cut short…and Schultz. He is the only defenseman – the only player since the lockout – to hit plus-50, but even the most ardent Caps fan would have to admit that there is one player who probably does not belong in this group.
But take that season out of the mix for a moment. You would be left with a player who in 246 regular season games would be 7-33-40, plus-36. That would be a player with a 2-11-13, plus-12 pace per 82 games in a shade over 19 minutes a night over a still brief career (Schultz being only 25 years of age). Forget the baggage Schultz carries (no purse jokes, please). Over the last four seasons he has averaged fewer than 2.5 goals/on ice per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. If you are looking for a first-pair, shutdown defenseman, you would probably want a better number there (to extend a comparison, Pronger has been below 2.0 in that number twice in the last four years). But if you are looking at a second or third pair defenseman, you might not turn your nose up at that kind of outcome.
In the end…
If the plus-50 year never happened, Schultz might be a nice defenseman to play in a second or third pair role, giving you 18-20 minutes a night. He is not that plus-50 player. But he has been consistent, never finishing a season in minus territory. In an odd way he is reminiscent of former Caps defenseman Joe Reekie, a somewhat ungainly skater to seemed a bit awkward on the ice and who didn’t contribute much at the offensive end. But as Reekie was a suitable partner for the offensive-minded Sergei Gonchar, just as Schultz has been something of a safety blanket for the likes of a more offensive-minded Mike Green. It is worth noting that Reekie compiled 13 straight seasons in plus territory, seven-plus of them with the Caps. And say what you will about the flawed nature of the plus-minus statistic, but if more good things happen when a player is on the ice than bad things, well, we’ll take it.
The 2010-2011 season might be looked at in one way as a step back for Schultz. That would be true if the 2009-2010 season was a fair representation of the kind of defenseman he is. That might not be fair. What he has been in the other seasons of his career is closer to what seems to be his performance level. And the trick for Schultz is to make those incremental steps forward in becoming a more adept defensive defenseman, to contribute a little bit of offense here and there, and to give the Caps solid, consistent, even boring minutes.
Projection: 73-games, 1-7-8, plus-10
(photo: UPI/Archie Carpenter)
Monday, October 03, 2011
Washington Capitals 2011-2012 Previews: Roman Hamrlik
Roman Hamrlik
Theme: “The world is all gates, all opportunities, strings of tension waiting to be struck.”
-- Ralph Waldo Emerson
On June 20, 1992, in Montreal, Roman Hamrlik was drafted first overall in the NHL Entry Draft by the Tampa Bay Lightning. First among 264 players drafted. Nineteen years later, Hamrlik is the “dean” of that draft class, having played in the most games (1,311). He is also among the most traveled, with stops in Tampa Bay (377 games), Edmonton (196), the New York Islanders (300), Calgary (126), and Montreal (312). He has been to the post-season 13 times, where he played another 97 games. All those games in all those cities over all those years. He has yet to play in a Stanley Cup final.
And now, at the age of 37, Roman Hamrlik, seeing perhaps his best chance to win a Stanley Cup, signs with the Caps. Does he still have gas in the tank? Well, in four seasons in Montreal, he did not fail to play in at least 75 games (312 of 328 overall). In that time he was 22-97-119, plus-39. And as to the little things, he was a top-five among defensemen in blocked shots in three of those four years in Montreal. He also did it playing a consistent amount of ice time, an average of almost 23 minutes a game and over those four years ranging from a total of 1,755 to 1,778 total minutes. Only John Carlson skated more total minutes with the Caps last season.
Last year, Hamrlik was a respectable 1-7-8, even in 30 games against Eastern Conference teams making the playoffs. He was third among Canadien defensemen in quality of competition faced at 5-on-5 (behind fellow vets Hal Gill and Jaroslav Spacek) and was second in plus-minus/on ice at 5-on-5. There is a flip side to that, though. At 5-on-5 Hamrlik had the highest frequency of offensive zone starts among Canadien defensemen playing in at least 50 games (51.6 percent), but yet had a negative Relative Corsi value (which, oddly enough, was third best on the team). The numbers at odds here did not seem to affect outcomes very much; his 2.05 goals against/on ice per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 was second best on the team (all numbers from behindthenet.ca).
The picture painted here is a veteran who has maintained a solid and consistent, if unspectacular level of play as he skates toward the later stages of his career.
Fearless’ Take: There were four defensemen in the NHL aged 37 or older on February 1st (Hamrlik will not turn 38 until April) who played in at least 50 games last season. All of them scored at least 18 points, three of them averaged at least 20 minutes a game (the exception being Sean O’Donnell), and three of them finished in plus territory (the exception was Nicklas Lidstrom of the Red Wings at minus-2). There is still room for contributions from hockey’s equivalent of late middle age.
Cheerless’ Take: Uh, cuz? There were only seven defensemen in the entire league who dressed for at least one game aged 37 or older, and three of them appeared in fewer than 50 games. That’s out of 304 total. And, in 13 playoff seasons, only once did a team for which Hamrlik played reach a conference final. His teams won only four of 17 series in which he has played.
The Big Question… Does Hamrlik really have gas left in the tank?
As a player approaches 40, that becomes a question that might be asked at the dawn of each season they are still in the league. But the consistency of Hamrlik’s performance in his four years in Montreal, especially in skating at least 21:55 per game in each of those four seasons suggests there is something left. He is not likely to have to assume that burden in Washington, but having the capacity to do so in the event circumstances require it is an insurance policy against injuries on the blue line. And, as an added plus to consider, his 4.47 points per 60 minutes of ice time at 5-on-4 was better than any Capital playing in more than 40 games.
In the end…
There is an element in Hamrlik’s resume that lies outside the boundaries of numbers. It is captured in a June 2011 column by Pat Hickey in the Montreal Gazette…
“[A] plus for Hamrlik is that he has been an effective teacher in the latter stages of his career. He has helped in the development of [P.K.] Subban and [Josh] Gorges in Montreal and, before that, tutored Dion Phaneuf in Calgary.”
The Caps still have four defensemen – Karl Alzner, John Carlson, Mike Green, and Jeff Schultz – with almost 400 fewer regular season games’ worth of experience than Hamrlik. He could have ample opportunities to be an “effective teacher.” If the “multiplier” effect of his ability to impart his 1,300-plus games of wisdom on four young defensemen is his only contribution, it could prove valuable for the Caps in the spring. But there is little except age – it’s just a number – to suggest that there is a likelihood that he will suffer diminishing capacity in his ability as an NHL defenseman. One with an opportunity for a Stanley Cup.
Projection: 78 games, 5-23-28, +8
(Photo: Richard Wolowicz/Getty Images North America)
Washington Capitals 2011-2012 Previews: Mike Green
Mike Green
Theme: “I'm always making a comeback but nobody ever tells me where I've been.”
-- Billie Holiday
One might take that quote in a number of ways as it applies to Mike Green. First off, there is the matter of concussions. He suffered one, perhaps two as a result of: a) taking a shot off his helmet courtesy of Pittsburgh’s Brooks Orpik on February 6th, and b) an elbow to the head from New York Ranger Derek Stepan on February 25th. The latter incident forced Green to miss the remainder of the regular season, but even upon his return his head could not avoid harm. In the series-clinching game of the opening round against the Rangers, Green took a shot from the Rangers’ Matt Gilroy flush in the noggin, popping screws off his helmet. One might forgive Green if a good portion of the season was remembered only through a fog.
The result of his assorted injuries was that Green missed a total of 33 games, the 49 games he did play being the lowest number of games played since his first year in Washington, in 2005-2006. It brought the total of missed games for Green to 54 over the past three seasons after he played in all 82 games in the 2007-2008 season. And it is this trend, forged over the past three seasons, that is of as much concern as the nature of the injuries he suffered last season.
But when Green was in the lineup, something interesting was going on, and that brings us to the second way you might take that quote. In 2008-2009 Green scored 31 goals in only 68 games played, a 37-goal scoring pace ove 82 games. But was he sacrificing defense to that end? He had the second highest Corsi value on-ice at 5-on-5 that season among defensemen playing in at least 50 games, but his relative Corsi value dropped to 12th in that group (numbers from behindthenet.ca). Think it was a big drop? Well, here is context. 110 defensemen that season were on ice for more goals than Mike Green. That would be roughly consistent with his ranking 98th in quality of competition faced, but the picture is one of a generally competent defenseman, not a forward in defenseman’s clothing. He hasn't "been" anywhere; he's been there all the time, a better defenseman than many might think.
In 2009-2010 Green did himself one better – or three better, actually – in points scoring, going from 73 to 76 points and again being a better than a point-per-game scorer from the blue line (75 games). He did it facing a bit stiffer competition (86th among defensemen at 5-on-5 playing in at least 50 games), although his relative Corsi value dropped to 36th in that group of defensemen. There was still the matter of there being 48 defensemen in the league having been on the ice for more goals against than Green. Last season there were 157, although that can be attributed to his missing those 33 games. He did slip, though, in quality of competition faced, no doubt a product of the competition burden the kid defensemen – Karl Alzner and John Carlson – were bearing.
Fearless’ Take: Over the last four seasons Green has grown into a more physical player. His hit totals have increased, on a per-82 game basis, from 94 to 133, dropping to 115 before jumping to 182 last season.
Cheerless’ Take: That takeaway-to-giveaway ratio of 0.56:1 over the past four years isn’t anything to get all excited about. Compare that to some defensemen of note last season. Shea Weber was 1.22:1. Kevin Bieksa was 1.22:1. Dan Hamhuis was 1.30:1. Marc Staal was 1.46:1. How those things are scored might vary by the scorer’s eye from rink to rink, but that’s still a mighty big difference.
The Big Question… Has Mike Green’s injury trend made him less valuable to the Caps?
The Caps certainly have hedged their bets in answering this question with Dennis Wideman and Roman Hamrlik in the fold, either one being able to provide some offense (they combined for 74 points last year), although whether either is an upgrade to Green on defense is an open question (Hamrlik perhaps being the best among the three). The answer to this question, however, might have to wait until the season is over. There, the intersection of both Green and John Carlson reaching restricted free agency might force the Caps into an either/or choice. And if Green’s health is again an issue, it would have to impact his value to the club.
In the end…
Back to the original statement. Mike Green might be poised to make something of a comeback in terms of his scoring statistics, although like other Caps we looked at, we think we have seen his career year. That doesn’t mean he will not remain a dangerous offensive player. And he is among the better puck-carriers in the league. He does remain a high-risk/high-reward player in that last season he was second on the team in giveaways and among the top 35 in the league, despite missing those 33 games.
He is not, however, as commonly assumed, a liability on defense. Be assured, if there was a Rod Langway Award for top defensive defensemen, Green would not soon be among the finalists for such an award. But the giveaway issue aside, he is a better defenseman than that for which he is given credit. As we noted, “where he has been” is right where he is – a competent defenseman in his own zone who has superior gifts in the offensive zone. With this team, though, and the manner in which they have provided for depth in the kind of defenseman Green is, he is not likely to approach those career numbers set in 2008-2009 or 2009-2010.
Projection: 68 games: 13-30-43, +14
(Photo: Reuters/Jason Cohn)
Sunday, October 02, 2011
Washington Capitals 2011-2012 Previews: John Erskine
John Erskine
Theme: “Act well your part, there all the honour lies.”
-- Alexander Pope
Last spring, the Capitals obtained Dennis Wideman as insurance against the absence of then injured Mike Green. This past summer, the Caps signed Roman Hamrilk to add some more punch to the offense and a veteran presence. Where that leaves the Caps today is that they have six defensemen who could conceivable play every night – Green, Hamrlik, Wideman, Karl Alzner, John Carlson, and Jeff Schultz.
The question is, where does that leave John Erskine? Last season Erskine played in a career high 73 games and for the first time in his career reached the ten-point mark in season scoring (4-7-11, plus-1), not bad for a fellow known primarily as a physical, defensive defenseman. As far as that goes, he did finish 22nd in hits among all defensemen.
And here might be the strangest part of Erskine’s 2010-2011 season. He seemed to have saved his best for the best. In 26 games against the other seven teams in the Eastern Conference that made the playoffs, he was 2-4-6, plus-5. Against everyone else he was 2-3-5, minus-4 in 47 games. But that result should be balanced against the fact that Erskine was 3-4-7, plus-3, through December 1st, covering the first 26 games of the season. He even had a run in November in which he had points in four of five games (2-2-4, plus-4), three of the point games coming against teams that would make the playoffs (Buffalo, Philadelphia, and the Rangers). But in the last 47 games in which he appeared, he was 1-3-4, minus-2 (0-2-2, minus-1 in 15 games against Eastern Conference playoff teams).
Call it reverting to type, perhaps, but Erskine still had what was arguably his best season since entering the NHL. But that has to be tempered with a bit of reality. And that reality is that among Caps defensemen playing in at least 50 games last season, Erskine faced the weakest competition at 5-on-5 (numbers from behindthenet.ca). In fact, only 23 defensemen in the league (among 173 having played in at least 50 games) faced weaker competition.
Fearless’ Take: The Caps won 44 of 73 games in which Erskine played, only four of nine in games in which he did not dress. And the Caps allowed 22 goals in the nine games he missed or 2.44/game. They allowed 2.32 goals/game in the 73 games in which he did play. Just sayin’.
Cheerless’ Take: If there is one Cap who is thrilled with the Thrashers leaving Atlanta for the icier climes of Winnipeg, it might be Erskine. In three games in Atlanta last season he did not record a point and was a minus-4. In fact, he was a minus-3 against the Southeast as a whole. Just sayin’.
The Big Question… Can Erskine crack this lineup with all the changes?
It would appear to be difficult. Erskine has made great strides since coming to the Caps in 2006. But with the additions of Wideman late last season and Hamrlik over the summer, the Caps have added almost 1,800 games of NHL regular season experience. However, there could be opportunities for a seventh defenseman on this team, given the recent injury history of Mike Green and, if it carries over into this season, the inconsistent play of Jeff Schultz. But Erskine is coming off an injury of his own, a shoulder injury sustained late last season that require off-season surgery. He might be a while getting into the lineup. That might open up some minutes for Dmitry Orlov, although Orlov’s future this year is going to be in Hershey. But chances are, given that teams have to use ten or more defensemen in a season, that Erskine will get some significant minutes. It does not seem likely that he will approach last year’s total.
In the end…
Erskine remains the Caps most physical defenseman. He has been a real gamer, becoming a more rounded and more reliable defenseman over the past couple of years. But being a physical defenseman is still the hallmark of John Erskine’s game, and what effects the shoulder injury will have on that is the big unknown going into the season. Erskine can still contribute valuable minutes, provided they are managed effectively. That was the case last season, to a point, when he was not asked often to face an opponent’s top tier forwards. But keep this in mind. He was plus-11 at home, minus-10 on the road last season. It was by far the largest home-road swing in plus-minus of any Caps defenseman.
More than most defensemen, perhaps, managing Erskine’s minutes and roles is important to maximizing his contributions. But it can be a valuable role he plays. Not as prominent as last year’s, perhaps, but an important part, nonetheless.
Projection: 31 games, 1-3-4, plus-2
(Photo: Jamie Sabau/Getty Images North America)
Washington Capitals 2011-2012 Previews: John Carlson
John Carlson
Theme: “What saves a man is to take a step. Then another step.”
-- C. S. Lewis
John Carlson was the only rookie defenseman to play in all 82 games of the 2010-2011 season. And that was just one of the areas in which he led or was among the leaders in his rookie class of defensemen…
-- Tied for fourth in goals
-- Tied for second in assists
-- Fourth in points
-- Second in plus-minus
-- Tied for first in game-winning goals
-- First in time on ice
-- Eighth in hits
-- First in blocked shots
-- First in takeaways
-- Second in shots on goal
Quite an opening act. And more than that, he accomplished all of this while facing the highest quality of competition at 5-on-5 among rookie defensemen and the third highest quality of competition among all defensemen while at 4-on-5 (at least 50 games played; numbers from behindthenet.ca).
Carlson’s regular season might be boiled down to two parts. The first part was represented by the first 62 games. That is, until Mike Green suffered a concussion at the hands of the New York Rangers on February 25th. Up to and including that game, Carlson played 62 games, going 5-18-23, plus 14. That is a 7-24-30, plus-19 pace and about 22:30 of ice time per game. But after that, Carlson was 2-12-14, plus-7 in 20 games – an 8-49-57, plus-29 pace with a shade over 23 minutes a game.
It wasn’t all lollipops and accordions, though. Carlson managed only one assist in the Capitals’ five-game first round playoff win over the Rangers, going minus-3 in the process. In the second round series against the Tampa Bay Lightning, he was injured in Game 1, playing only 14 minutes and change. The hip pointer might have hampered his effectivness, despite his scoring a pair of goals and averaging more than 26 and a half minutes in the last three games of the Lightning sweep.
Still, it was a remarkable season for Carlson, one in which he and his partner, Karl Alzner, became the most consistent defensive pair for the Caps and one that was asked to bear the responsibility of facing the best opponents had to offer on most nights.
Fearless’ Take: Consistency was a hallmark of Carlson’s game. He had no month in which he finished in minus territory, and on only Mondays did he end up there (only seven games played on Mondays). He had at least one goal in five of the seven months of the season (including not getting one in a four-game April) and had at least one on every day of the week except Monday. He was 2-6-8, plus-6 in 30 games against the other seven teams in the East to make the playoffs.
Cheerless’ Take: Carlson would probably like to forget his season against the Rangers. Nine games – regular season and playoffs – 0-1-1, minus-8.
The Big Question… Should John Carlson be picking lottery numbers?
What a run Carlson has had over the last 20 months… scores Gold Medal goal in the 2010 World juniors championship, scores the game-tying goal in Game 2 of the Stanley Cup playoffs to help the Caps avoid an 0-2 deficit in the first round (ok, they lost anyway), plays for two Calder Cup winners with the Hershey Bears in the AHL, is the cream of the NHL’s 2010-2011 rookie class of defensemen culminating in his being named to the NHL’s All Rookie Team. The thread here isn’t so much that he has accomplished a lot, but that he has been a part of winning teams. Now, the trick will be to add to that kind of progress by helping push the Caps further toward a championship.
In the end…
It is hard to believe John Carlson will not turn 22 until January. And despite the consistent progress he has made in his brief professional career, there is the notion of a player of his age and experience having lapses here and there. But looking at his season last year, one wonders whether he is going to be subject to those kinds of lapses, at least as frequently as such a young player might. To date he has shown quite an ability to accept responsibility. An example – when Mike Green was injured in that February 25th game against the Rangers, Carlson finished the night a minus-3 on a night when the Caps were pasted, 6-0, on home ice. It was the last time that Carlson would finish a game worse than minus-1 for the rest of the year. Of course, there is also that Carlson had only three games all season in which he was worse than a minus-1 (two of them came against the Rangers).
John Carlson is entering the last year of his entry-level contract. He could be in for a handsome payday if his career takes the next step forward. Not a “Drew Doughty” kind of payday, perhaps, but then again, the idea is to take a step. Then another step.
Projection: 82 games, 9-32-41, plus-24
(Photo: Jamie Sabau/Getty Images North America)
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Washington Capitals 2011-2012 Previews: Karl Alzner
Theme: “Nothing contributes so much to tranquilizing the mind as a steady purpose”
-- Mary Wollstonecraft
Things happen. A player scores a goal…red lights flash, horns sound, fans cheer. A penalty is taken…a player skates to the box, fans boo (either him or the call). A player executes a thunderous check…glass rattles, fans come out of their seats.
But what happens when a player, merely by being in the right place at the right time, prevents things from happening – things that are bad for your team? No one cheers a player playing “sound positional defense.” Fans don’t come out of their seats when a defenseman angles a puck-carrier away from the place he wants to go. Horns don’t sound when a defenseman ties up a player around the net so he can’t secure a rebound.
The World of Karl Alzner…quiet, steady, and yet purposeful.
In 143 regular season and playoff games in the NHL, Karl Alzner has a total of three goals. You can hold off counting the Norris Trophy votes. But in 2010-2011 173 defensemen played in at least 50 NHL regular season games. Only 20 faced better competition at 5-on-5 over the course of the season than did Alzner (according to behindthenet.ca). Only one of them – Florida’s Jason Garrison – came into the season having played in fewer NHL games than the 51 Alzner played before last season began. Of those 173 defensemen, only 14 had a better Corsi value relative to quality of competition, a reflection of Alzner’s ability to defend, since he does not contribute a lot at the offensive end of the ice in terms of shot generation. Only 20 players in that group recorded fewer goals against his team scored while he was on the ice at 5-on-5 than did Alzner.
And this is the player Alzner is. If you are expecting an offensive player to bloom as he matures, don’t count on it. He hasn’t recorded more than ten goals in a season since he played for the Burnaby Winter Club in 2002-2003 at the age of 14. Only twice since then has he recorded seasons with more than five goals. Alzner is a defenseman who plays defense, not by rattling the glass with opponents (his 98 hits last year was tied for 82nd in the league), but by using anticipation and position to use the word “defend” as the verb it is intended to be, not as a synonym for being “physical.”
Fearless’ Take: There is the Corsi, the Fenwick, the shots for and against and all that, but boil it down to this -- fewest goals against/on ice per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 last season among Caps defensemen. You can use the other statistics to explain “how” he got there, but “that” he got there is the object of the exercise. And that was a significant improvement over his 2009-2010 performance in that regard, when he was worst on the club in that statistic (although in only 21 games).
Cheerless’ Take: That performance did not carry over into the post season last spring. His goals against/on ice per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 jumped from 1.90 to 2.45 in the playoffs (second worst among Caps playing in at least two games). That might not have been a surprise. While he was a plus-14 in his first 68 games, he was only “even” in his last 14. Fading down the stretch?
The Big Question… Is Alzner going to be the shutdown defensemen over 82 games, and more?
It is worth noting that Alzner is still only 23 years old and still has only 143 games of regular season and playoff game experience in the NHL. And last season he faced the highest quality of competition among all Caps defensemen playing in at least 50 games. He did slip a bit late last season, and the question there is whether it was just a matter of the state of Alzner’s physical maturity. But even with that blip late last season there were 173 defensemen in the NHL who were on the ice for more goals against than Karl Alzner. He is already an accomplished practitioner in the art of “defense.”
In the end…
Karl Alzner is not going to wow fans with big hits or end to end rushes or weak side pinches for top shelf goals. He plays angles, keeps within himself in terms of position, moves the puck out of trouble. If one doesn’t notice Alzner’s game on the ice on any given night, chances are the opponents he faced didn’t score a goal while he was on the ice. In fact, if you look at those 20 defensemen who had lower goals against/60 minutes at 5-on-5 last season, only Zdeno Chara and Kevin Bieksa faced a higher quality of competition.
Alzner and John Carlson have skated as a pair for some time now, either at Hershey or with the Caps, where both played in all 82 games last season, the only defensemen to do so for the Caps last season. That kind of reliability, and the “steady purpose” of Alzner’s game will be a critical element in the Caps’ march toward a Stanley Cup.
Projection: 82 games, 2-11-13, +17
(Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America)
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Washington Capitals 2011-2012 Previews: Jay Beagle
Theme: “The secret of success is to be ready when your opportunity comes.”
-- Benjamin Disraeli
Jay Beagle played in 31 games last season. It might have been a quiet 31 games but for one thing…well, two actually. He scored two goals, and both of them were game-winners. It was a sense of timing expressed in an otherwise unremarkable season.
Except now he is taking up the mantle of the “energy” forward that was worn by Matt Bradley for six seasons in Washington before he signed with the Florida Panthers this past summer. It is hard to get a handle on a player who has only 41 games of NHL experience, but maybe there are some hints from his 211 games with Hershey over the past four years.
Playing 211 regular season games and another 44 playoff games at Hershey suggests that Beagle has served a thorough apprenticeship. In those 211 regular season games with the Bears he was 47-48-95, plus-1. Compare that to a Joel Ward, who in his 209 regular season games played with the Houston Aeros in the AHL was 38-48-86, plus-11. In his first taste of NHL action, Ward played 11 games with the Minnesota Wild in 2006-2007 at age 26 and was a modest 0-1-1, even. He scored 17 goals with Nashville the following year. Beagle is 3-2-5 in 41 games over three years with the Caps. What he will do with what could be a full season’s worth of work -- at age 26 -- could be interesting to watch.
But scoring might be a pleasant surprise, if it is to come from Beagle. In camp he has spent a fair amount of time on a line with Jeff Halpern and Matt Hendricks. The charm of that line might be that it could be a pain in the neck to play against. A fourth line with that make up will, with Halpern and Hendricks, probably provide more offensive punch than last year’s edition of the fourth line. Beagle could provide that added energy, and even perhaps complement Halpern and Hendricks on the offensive end of the ice. He scored goals at an 18-per-82 game pace with Hershey, so the notion is not entirely out of bounds.
Fearless’ Take: Beagle is the latest Bear to take a place with the Caps (assuming he survives training camp) from the conveyor belt of champions that have been the Hershey Bears. In three post-seasons with the Bears, Beagle was a member of two Calder Cup championship teams. He joins Mathieu Perreault (assuming he survives camp), Karl Alzner, John Carlson, Mike Green, Jeff Schultz, and Michal Neuvirth among those who have graduated from Hershey teams having won championships.
Cheerless’ Take: How is it that a center who plays in an organization that is thin in the skin at that position takes four years in the AHL to make the big club?
The Big Question… Will Beagle wear the Weagle?
He has gone from playing three to seven to 31 games in his three partial years with the Caps. The Caps did some rearranging among the third and fourth line forward personnel, swapping out Matt Bradley, Boyd Gordon, Eric Fehr, Marco Sturm and Jason Arnott for Troy Brouwer, Jeff Halpern, Mattias Sjogren, and Joel Ward. But there is room for a player like Beagle, who has evidenced (at least in the AHL) and ability to pot a goal here or there, to win faceoffs (55.2 percent of 152 draws taken last year with the Caps), be responsible (one giveaway in 31 games), and not take an inordinate number of penalties (four minor infractions in 31 games).
In the end…
Beagle is essentially assuming Matt Bradley’s spot on the roster. He does not exhibit quite the feistiness Bradley displayed (Beagle has had five fights in his pro career – all at Hershey; Bradley had ten last season alone). But he does a lot of things capably enough, or at least has shown an ability to do them in serving his apprenticeship at Hershey. Beagle is in a situation not unlike Mathieu Perreault. In their own ways, each of them have probably done as much as they could at Hershey to prepare themselves for the NHL. For each it might be a case of demonstrating that they can now stick on an NHL roster, or be branded a “tweener” – a player who can fill in on an emergency basis from time to time, but who isn’t likely to be getting a sweater on a regular basis at the NHL level. Beagle is getting his opportunity now, and whether he is ready will determine whether he is successful in being in the lineup on a steady basis.
Projection: 63 games, 6-8-14, +1
(photo: AP/Gene J. Puskar)
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