A NO-point night -- Game 59: Hurricanes 5 - Capitals 0

Please…tell us this is a bad dream.

The Washington Capitals started badly, got worse, and by the end of the evening were utterly devoid of life, dropping a 5-0 decision to the Carolina Hurricanes in Raleigh. In a perverse way, it might have been the most cohesive team effort seen from the Caps in a couple of years. To a man, to a coach, they were awful. How bad?...

-- Two goals 88 seconds apart before the game was barely five minutes old, another goal allowed in the last minute of a period, and a shorthanded goal… 4-0 after less than 26 minutes.

-- Tomas Vokoun had the briefest start of his career, lasting 5:09. He allowed two goals on seven shots. Coach Dale Hunter said he removed Vokoun to “change the momentum.” It worked. Carolina scored two more goals in the next 21 minutes. He probably meant “in favor of the Caps.”

-- Mike Green was on the ice for the first four Carolina goals. He had an excuse; it was his second game back from a lengthy absence. Explain Dennis Wideman being on for three, including Eric Staal’s breakaway shorthanded goal, when Wideman – as the last man back – dove to the ice to try to knock down an errant pass up ice by Marcus Johansson.

-- As for Johansson… in less than 15 minutes he had one shot on goal (two attempts), a giveaway, and lost 13 of 18 draws while going minus-2. He’s the number two center…

-- …unless it is Mathieu Perreault, who in less than 17 minutes had no shots on goal (two attempts) and was minus-1.

-- While the number one center – Brooks Laich – had one shot on goal (two attempts) and lost 10 of 14 draws before taking a seat for the last 10:27 of the game.

-- Then there was the captain. Alex Ovechkin… 15:43, one shot, minus-2, an equipment problem that had him in the locker room for the last six minutes of the second period and most of the third with his head buried in his hands when he was on the bench.

-- Fourteen Caps finished with minus numbers; seven Caps had penalties. Nine Caps finished with at least one shot on goal.

-- The Caps were 6-for-23 on draws in the offensive zone.

-- Carolina had more shots on Washington’s power play (two, one goal) than the Caps did (one).

-- The Caps couldn’t even get a fight right. Matt Hendricks tried with Derek Joslin, but managed only to go off with Joslin on coincidental minor roughing penalties. He got it right the second time, duking it out with Joslin when the two emerged from the box on their coincidental penalties.

-- Five straight games allowing the first goal, five straight games allowing a first period goal, five straight games not scoring one of their own in the first period. You cannot win in this league doing that.

-- Seventeen shots on goal. Along with the 24 they had against Tampa Bay, that makes 41, the same number they had in their last win, that coming against Florida last Friday.

-- Caps have three goals on their last 84 shots on goal, going back to the 5-3 loss to San Jose. A 3.6 percent shooting percentage against Jose Theodore, Mathieu Garon, and Justin Peters?

Down Goes Brown tweeted the following after the game last night…

It is interesting to go back three years and look at that, but one really need not go further at the moment than point number one:

1. Ask yourself the big question: "Can this team--as constructed--ever win a championship?" If the answer is yes -- stay the course and try to find the right formula -- if the answer is no, then plan to rebuild. Don't fake it--really do the analytics and be brutally honest. Once you have your answer, develop the game plan to try to REALLY win a championship. Always run away from experts that say, "We are just one player away." Recognize there is no easy and fast systemic fix. It will be a bumpy ride--have confidence in the plan--"trust and verify: the progress -- but don't deviate from the plan."

OK, so ask it. And for the sake of argument, take Alex Ovechkin out of the mix. Is anyone going to argue that this roster – as constructed – is ever going to win a championship? Even putting Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom back in the mix, this is not an especially deep or talented roster, at least in terms of translating depth or talent into results. How can one say otherwise when you have a whole group of forwards for whom you don’t measure the frequency of goal scoring by games or days, but by weeks and months. When defensemen seem to wander aimlessly around in their own zone. When they can’t win consecutive games on the road (they have not done so in more than two months). When they can’t take advantage of backup goaltenders (they are now 11-11-2 against backups this season). No, backups of backups. Carolina iced their number three goalie tonight with both Cam Ward and Brian Boucher injured, and were shut out.

If this team is not at their brutally honest moment, they can see it from here… 1-4-1 in their last six games, 4-7-3 in their last 14, unable to win consecutive games in their last 16 contests. Last week, Caps season-ticket planholders read this from the owner…

“I’m seeing signs that our team is beginning to adhere to Coach Hunter’s style. It’s not easy to implement new voices and significant changes during the season, but Dale’s philosophy is sinking in, and soon it will become second nature for our players.”

Beginning? After 37 games? Is this team any further along now than they were last December when they started 1-3-0 under Hunter? In those four games the Caps played four teams eligible for the playoffs – St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Ottawa, and Florida. Now, they are losing to the Tampa Bay’s and Carolina’s of the league and looking as if they hardly care in the process. Meanwhile, St. Louis is 30-9-7 under their mid-season coaching replacement, and Anaheim is 18-11-6 under theirs. The Caps are 17-16-4 since their coaching change.

The Caps are still only one point out of a playoff spot – a tribute to parity, one supposes – and the playoffs cannot be ruled out. It just would not seem to be the way to bet.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 59: Capitals at Hurricanes, February 20th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals are now on the downside of their four-game road trip, Game 3 coming Monday night in Raleigh against the Carolina Hurricanes. This will be the last trip to Carolina this season, the Caps having split the first two contests. They beat the Hurricanes, 5-1, on November 4th, then they lost in Carolina by a 3-0 margin on January 20th. This game…

“Laissez les bons temps rouler!”

Well, if it isn’t our old friend from Louisiana, Thibodeaux. Shouldn't you be getting ready for the big party?

“Oh cher, that’s not ‘til Mardi. I thought I’d get the week started by watching the Capitals krewe…”

Well, if you have any voodoo you brought along, they sure could use it. They haven’t been able to light up the scoreboard much these days.

“Ah, maybe they should use les flambeaux instead of sticks, n’est-ce pas?”

I don’t know that flaming torches will do the trick. Melts the ice, you know.

“But the maskers, they are doing well, eh?”

If by “masker,” you mean “goalies,” Tomas Vokoun is doing quite well. Wish we could say the same for the power play.

“Ah, dancin’ around like in the fais do-do?”

Well, they sure look like dodos out there lately. What is it you have there?

“A ring cake.”

You mean a king cake?

“No cher…that has green and gold and purple on it, and a baby inside.”

I see this one is red, white, and blue.

“Dat’s right…Capitals colors.”

And inside?

“A tiny ring, a symbol of a championship.”

You might be getting a bit ahead of yourself, my friend.

Well, while Lundi Gras is getting underway to welcome the arrival of King Rex in New Orleans for Mardi Gras, Hockey Monday sees the Caps heading to Carolina to face the Hurricanes (irony in that, one supposes). The Caps are hoping there will be something to celebrate on Mardi Gras with a win in Raleigh, where they have split two decisions so far this season. They defeated the Hurricanes, 5-1, on November 4th, then lost in Carolina on January 20th in a 3-0 shutout.

Carolina has been engaging in some interesting two-step ice dancing lately. In February they have two wins, then two losses (both in overtime), two wins, and a loss. You can see – or hope – where this is going. In fact, Carolina has been relentlessly avoiding any kind of streak for six weeks now. They are 8-5-4 in that time, reliably alternating no more than two wins and two losses at a time over that period.

The one constant in those 17 games has been goaltender Cam Ward. The ironman goalie (he is seventh in the league minutes played) earned the decision in 14 straight games from January 10th through February 13th before he was spelled by Justin Peters last Friday. Ward returned to the ice on Saturday but aggravated what was described by coach Kirk Muller as a “slight tweak” and was relieved by Peters for the last 20 minutes of a 4-3 loss to the New York Islanders. In those 15 appearances Ward is 7-3-4, 1.95, .940, and two shutouts. Ward has had his ups and downs against the Caps, holding a career record of 15-10-4, 2.52, .907, with four shutouts against Washington. If he can’t go (he is listed as doubtful for this game), it will be Peters and his 1-1-0, 2.94, .908 career mark against the Caps.

As for the teams, here is how they stack up against one another…

 (click pic for larger image)

1. Since the last time these teams met – A 3-0 Carolina win on January 20th – Carolina is 5-4-3, including a 3-0 shutout win in Boston. They have outscored their opponents by 26-25 in those dozen games. Their special teams have, as they have all year, struggled. The power play is 4-for-29 (13.8 percent), while the penalty kill is 15-for-21 (71.4 percent).

2. Carolina is a difficult team to score on early. Only four teams have allowed fewer first period goals. But despite outscoring teams by 48-39 in the first period of games this season, the Hurricanes have taken a lead into the first intermission only 23 times in 59 games. And, they have the second worst record in the league when leading after one period, ahead of only Edmonton.

3. No team enjoys a larger positive differential in special teams time at home than Carolina. Their power play less penalty killing ice time is a positive 48:39 in 30 home games. Not that it has helped them too much, the Hurricanes ranking in the bottom third in both home power play and home penalty killing efficiency.

4. Once upon a time this season, Eric Staal was dead last in the league in plus-minus. He is still tied for 839th among 852 skaters having dressed this season, but in his last seven games he is 5-4-9, plus-8, and is a plus player in six of the seven games. He is 2-3-5, minus-2 in four games against the Caps this season.

5. Want to beat Carolina? Score a power play goal. The Hurricanes are 5-20-4 when allowing at least one extra man score. And if Justin Peters is getting the call in goal, he has allowed five goals on 21 power play shots (.762). Only four goalies have a worse save percentage when facing the power play, and one of them – Anaheim’s Iiro Tarkki – faced only one shot.

1. The Capitals, for all their troubles, are still the only Southeast Division team with as many as 10 wins against other Southeast Division teams (10-5-2).

2. On that whole power play less penalty kill time theme, only five teams have a worse road differential than the Caps’ -22:41 in 29 road games. Part of that is the fact that Washington has had 95 power play opportunities on the road while having found themselves shorthanded 110 times.

3. Much was made of the fact that the Caps were 8-0 in games Mike Green played to start the season and were 9-1-0 in all games in which he appeared before his return from sports hernia surgery on Saturday. But there is this, too. Including his return against Tampa Bay, the Caps have allowed only 23 goals in 11 games in which Green has played, only 15 in the last nine games in which he appeared.

4. In 2009-2010 the Caps had seven players with at least 20 goals. At the moment they have one – Alex Ovechkin – and there is no guarantee they will have another. Alexander Semin has been scoring with more frequency lately and is on a pace for 23, but he can be streaky. Jason Chimera is on a pace for 21, but he has two in his last 24 games. Troy Brouwer is on a pace for 21 as well, but he has one in his last 16 games since getting his first career hat trick against Tampa Bay on January 13th. No other Cap is on pace for 20.

5. The Caps do reasonably well playing on the margin. They are 13-7-5 in games settled by one goal, but they are only 7-7 in one-goal games settled in regulation. Worse, they are 16-17 in games settled by more than one goal. One would be hard-pressed to find a better example of mediocrity.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Jeff Skinner

Meet Jeff Skinner, pugilist. Perusing the records at hockeyfights.com, you will find only one instance in which the young Carolina forward was engaged in a fight in his organized hockey career – a pre-season bout against Columbus’ Kris Russell this past September. But there was Skinner this past Wednesday, getting into a scrape with a teammate (Patrick Dwyer) at practice. Maybe it did something; the Hurricanes went out and beat the San Jose Sharks the next night, 3-2, Skinner getting a goal in the win and Dwyer an assist. Then again, maybe it didn’t; Carolina lost to the New York Islanders the next night, 4-3.

Washington: John Carlson

Things happen when John Carlson is on the ice. That is not necessarily a good thing. Only four players have been on the ice for more team goal against this season. What is more, the 76 goals on ice against is 17 more than the next Caps in line, Brooks Laich and Karl Alzner with 59 apiece. Carlson’s minus-7 is by far the worst among Caps defensemen. He is also leading the teams’ blueliners in even strength ice time per game. If the Caps are to have a turnaround, John Carlson finding another gear would help.

Keys:

1. Don’t just talk smack, smack smack. If hits are an indicator of physicality, Carolina is not an especially physical team at home (22nd in the league). Then again, the Caps aren’t an especially physical team on the road (22nd in the league). If the Caps can make Carolina pay a physical price, especially early, then they might…

2. Stop letting teams put up crooked numbers early. The Caps have allowed the first goal in the first period in four straight games, going 1-3-0 in the process. That is not a recipe to win games with any regularity.

3. 60 minutes. We noted that Carolina has scored 48 goals and allowed only 39 in the first period. But in the last two, Carolina has scored 104 but has allowed 130. Carolina is not a team that finishes well, and the Caps are 65-51 to the good in the third periods of games this season.

In the end, the Caps have been meandering back and forth for weeks now, unable to string together any significant run of consecutive wins. Except for Nicklas Backstrom, the Caps are now as healthy as they have been since opening night. Backstrom’s absence is still a big hole, but by itself no longer justifies why this team should languish beneath the top-eight in the East. It’s more than past time for the Caps to provide that little extra. What do you call it, Thibodeaux?

Lagniappe…

Capitals 3 – Hurricanes 2

That Was The Week That Was -- Week 19 (February 12 - 18)

Week 19 offered a chance for the Caps to turn things around on the road and jump back into the top-eight…

…they didn’t.

Record: 1-3-0

This was the Caps’ first losing week since week 10 in which they went 1-2-0. Had they broken even, they would be in the top-eight, a point ahead of Toronto. As it is, they ended the week on the outside and with the Winnipeg Jets breathing down their necks for ninth place (Winnipeg jumped the Caps into ninth on Sunday). The Caps did get a win in the game in which they had to get one, a 2-1 win in Florida to at least keep the Panthers in sight (the Caps finished the week two points behind Florida for first place in the Southeast Division). Otherwise, it was a hugely disappointing week in which the Caps led for a grand total of 6:33 out of 240 minutes of hockey and finished the week with a 3-5-2 record in their last ten games, bookended by losses in Tampa Bay (4-2 in overtime on January 31st and 2-1 on Saturday).

Offense: 2.00/game (season: 2.72/rank: 13th)

It was a different Alex leading the way this week. Last week it was Ovechkin; this week it was Semin. Alexander Semin had a hand in half of the Caps’ eight goals for the week, getting two of his own and assisting on two others. Semin has been on a bit of a roll of late, going 4-5-9 in his last eight games and is 11-15-26 in his last 27 games. Other than Semin it was a rather weak week. Roman Hamrlik was 1-2-3, and four other Caps had two points. The biggest problem this week was an inability to take a lead or score early. They did not score first in any game, and they did not have a first period goal in any of the four games. It was something of an odd result, given that the Caps averaged more than 33 shots on goal per game for the week. But a 6.0 percent shooting percentage? Not good.

Defense: 2.75/game (season: 2.76/rank: 18th)

The defense did a good job in limiting shot attempts this week – 204 in all – and shots on goal (109). But there were mistakes made, especially early in games – a breakdown deep that allowed the Rangers to get Ryan Callahan open for a backhanded tap-in on a power play, Marcus Johansson losing track of Tomas Fleischmann to let the Florida forward get open for a one timer, Dmitry Orlov trying a backhand pass in traffic that allowed Tampa Bay to transition to offense and score. Add in a fluke 90-footer that clicked off a stick to beat Braden Holtby against San Jose, and the Caps allowed a goal – the first goal of the game – in each of the first periods this week.

Goaltending: 2.75/.899

Three goalies got work this week. Michal Neuvirth opened the week with Tomas Vokoun on the shelf with the flu. He was not bad against the Rangers (25 stops on 28 shots), but he was not especially sharp, either. Neuvirth is not getting enough work to get sharp, and his lack of an edge is preventing him from getting more work in relief of Vokoun. Which leads to Braden Holtby, who was called up to face the San Jose Sharks. Why? In the words of coach Dale Hunter, “"It’s one of those things where if [Neuvirth] was standing on his head every night, would Braden be playing?" No. So it’s always judged by how you play." Holtby gave up the transcontinental goal to open the scoring, and he was not a lot better after that, allowing five goals on 35 shots overall. On the other hand, Tomas Vokoun returned from his illness and stopped 43 of 46 shots (.935 SV) in back-to-back games, splitting the decisions. His work stands in stark relief to his relief, who stopped only 55 of 63 shots (.873). It is worth noting that Vokoun is 13-9-2 under Dale Hunter with a 2.15 goals against average, a .930 save percentage,and three shutouts. That the Caps are doing as poorly as they are with this level of performance is perhaps the biggest disappointment – a waste of discount ($1.5 million for this year) goaltending.

Power Play: 1-for-14/7.1 percent (season: 17.7 percent/rank: 13th)

If the power play might have been coming out of a slump at the end of last week (3-for-6 in the last two games of the week), it went back into hibernation this week. Alex Ovechkin got the only goal of the week as the Caps converted only one of 21 power play shots. It was a return to the ineffectiveness on the man advantage that has seen them go 8-for-55 over their last 20 games (14.6 percent). Almost as frustrating is the fact that in those 20 games the Caps have had two or fewer power play chances in nine of them, three or fewer in 14 of them. Those 20 games correspond to the absence of Nicklas Backstrom.

Penalty Killing: 13-for-16/81.3 percent (season: 80.9%/rank: 23rd)

If the Caps never had to play the San Jose Sharks, you might not find many Caps fans complaining. The Sharks came to Verizon Center this week and lit the Caps up for three goals in six power play opportunities. That made the Sharks seven for 12 in their last four games against the Caps. Other than that, the Caps were perfect, but that has a bit of the “otherwise, how did you like the play, Mrs. Lincoln?” quality to it. The Caps did, however, allow a total of only six power play shots in 19:19 of penalty killing time over those other three games (they allowed 13 to the Sharks). It was not so much a bad week as a bad game that marred an otherwise good week.

Paying the Price: 99 hits/52 blocked shots (season rank: 12th/7th)

The blocked shots were down (from 22.3 per game last week to 13.0 per game this week) largely as a result of the drop in shot attempts – only 204 for the week. But the percentage of shot attempts blocked was down, too – 25.5 percent, when the Caps had been topping 30 percent in recent weeks.


Faceoffs: 115-for-239/48.1 percent (season: 50.3 percent/rank: 12th)

The Caps had more or less an even week in the circle, except for the game against the Rangers to start things. Officially, the Caps were 19-for-50 in that game, 96-for-189 (50.8 percent) for the other three games. However, the Caps struggled in the offensive end, going 38-for-90 in the four games (42.2 percent). Brooks Laich was particularly off in the offensive zone. Laich was 3-for-20 for the week (15.0 percent). He was, however, even at the other end (14-for-28). Still, giving up possession in offensive zone starts didn’t help in what was a weak scoring week.

Turnovers: minus-13

Well, at least they cut the margin in half from the previous week. There really isn’t much else to be said about that, although all of it is explained away by a minus-13 in the 2-1 loss in Tampa Bay on Saturday.

Impressions:

Last week we said…

“The Caps are seeing their season slowly bleed away. In their first 12 full weeks of the season they had six winning weeks and three .500 weeks. In their last six weeks that have had two winning weeks and four .500 weeks. They have avoided losing weeks, but they are not putting together any consistent run of good play that is reflected in wins and losses.”

And so it goes, still. The road woes continue (1-2-0 for the week), and the home record isn’t so hot lately, either (2-3-1 in their last six games at Verizon Center, including this week's loss to San Jose). The Caps did win the biggest game of the week – the 2-1 win over Florida on Friday – but if that is the only win in a week, all it does is delay the disappointment that could be coming. Capitals Nation has been waiting for that turnaround, that streak of five or six games when one could get a sense that the team is getting it. Getting Mike Green back into the lineup might help with that, but the continued absence of Nicklas Backstrom might be too much to overcome in the end. With a record of 8-9-3 since Backstrom left the lineup, the Caps are not showing enough depth or consistency to suggest that the magic “turnaround” is in sight.

A NO-point night -- Game 58: Lightning 2 - Capitals 1

One step forward, one step back, one step closer to an early spring.

The Caps wasted an opportunity to win consecutive games for the first time in more than a month, of catching the Florida Panthers in standings points at the top of the Southeast Division, and of passing the Toronto Maple Leafs for eighth place in the Eastern Conference.

And they wasted this opportunity before a team that had not won consecutive games of their own in February, had traded a reliable forward and a top-four defenseman before this game, and was starting a goaltender who ranked in the bottom ten in the league in goals against average and save percentage.

The Caps losing to the Tampa Bay Lightning by a 2-1 score should not have happened, but it looked as if they fell victim to the twin problems we cited in the pregame: a letdown after playing Florida in a big game, and Tampa rising up to act as spoiler.

There was also the problem of continuity, and in this lies the silver lining in this cloud of a game. Mike Green made his return to the ice tonight, and to manage risk in his return, the Caps dressed seven defensemen and 11 forwards. All seven defensemen played at least ten minutes (Green played 14:14), and all 11 forwards did th same. This made for a lot of forward line and defensive pair combinations.

On defense, the combinations generally involved Roman Hamrlik skating with Mike Green or Dmitry Orlov, and it was the Hamrlik-Orlov pair that was on the ice for Tampa Bay’s first goal. It was Orlov’s mistake – an ill-advised pass at the Tampa blue line – that was turned around for a Lightning rush into the Caps’ end that resulted in Tom Pyatt stuffing a loose puck under goalie Tomas Vokoun for the first goal.

John Carlson and Karl Alzner were the other pair victimized by a goal, but neither could do much about Steven Stamkos picking Matt Hendricks’ pocket just inside the Tampa Bay line and hauling the puck the other way on a clean breakaway, converting it for his 40th goal.

Two goals off mistakes. Still, it was two goals allowed against a team that was averaging almost three-and-a-half goals a game at home. Defense and goaltending was not the problem. The offense generally and the forwards, that was another story. With 11 forwards the Caps started with an Alex Ovechkin-Broks Laich-Mike Knuble top line. That line lasted two shifts. Knuble’s third shift was with Jeff Halpern and Joel Ward on the fourth line. Ovechkin’s fifth shift was with the Halpern-Ward pair (shifts from timeonice.com). There would be Knuble-Ovechkin-Johansson, Knuble-Laich-Jason Chimera, Knuble-Alexander Semin-Mathieu Perreault. You get the point. And that is just focusing on Mike Knuble. Even the lone Caps goal – scored by Laich, the nominal top line center for this game – came with linemates Alexander Semin and Mathieu Perreault getting the assists. And there is the silver lining. If Mike Green passes his road test and the Caps return to six defensemen, the forward lines should not suffer the spin cycle treatment, and perhaps the continuity will result in some more offense.

Other stuff…

-- Even playing both ends of a back-to-back, Tomas Vokoun stopped 21 of 23 shots faced, making it 110 saves on the last 115 shots he faced over the past four games (.957). Over his last six appearances he has a goals against average of 1.32, a save percentage of .954, and two shutouts. He also has a record of 3-2-1. There is a lot of good effort being wasted in there.

-- Alex Ovechkin did not have his first shot attempt until the 13:21 mark of the first period (blocked by Adam Hall). He did not record his first shot on goal until the 8:34 mark of the second period, by which time the Lightning had a 2-0 lead.

-- The Caps dressed seven defensemen, and as a group they combined for one shot on goal on 13 shot attempts. Nine shot attempts were blocked.

-- Speaking of shots, at least Marcus Johansson was directing them at the net. We noted that he had only 12 shots in his last 12 games. He had two shots on goal last night on six attempts. Unfortunately, none went in. He has been stuck on 11 goals for six games now.

-- In fact, Johansson did everything but score. And we do mean “everything.” Two shots, a shot blocked, three misses, a hit, two giveaways, a takeaway, a blocked shot, wins in nine of 15 draws, and a slashing penalty. He was also one of three Caps forwards to skate more than 20 minutes.

-- Tampa went into shutdown mode in the third period. They directed only 11 shots at the Caps’ net in the last 20 minutes (two shots on goal). The Caps, with the Lightning playing rope-a-dope, managed only eight shots on goal of their own, only three of them coming from players not having “Alex” in their first name (Joel Ward, Jason Chimera, and Dennis Wideman). It is an indicator of how thin the Caps’ offense is these days.

-- The Caps had more than three minutes of power play time last night and managed one shot, that by Troy Brouwer. The power play looked like something you would see perhaps in the second exhibition game of the year. No clean entries, incomplete passes galore.

-- OK, we don’t have to say the Caps are undefeated with Mike Green in the lineup anymore.

In the end, if the Caps’ season was a movie, it might be one of those old adventure movies of the 1950’s or 1960’s, the ones in which some unfortunate soul takes a misstep and finds himself slowly sinking into a pit of quicksand. Slowly, relentlessly, inexorably, he sinks into the muck, first waist deep…chest deep…neck deep. Finally, he disappears below the smooth surface, never to be seen again.

That is the Caps right now. They are 1-3-1 in their last five games and have alternated losses and wins in their last five road games. The squirming in the muck has kept them right on the fringes of playoff eligibility, teasing fans with the possibility of getting in and, perhaps finding a spark once they do. But this has been going on for a while now. As we noted, the Caps have not won consecutive games in more than a month (going 5-7-3 since they did). Last night was their best chance to do that, facing a poor defensive team made even worse by selling off a checking forward and a solid defenseman, and starting a heretofore entirely average goaltender. And they get one goal on 23 shots and only 46 shot attempts.

Quicksand takes time to do its work.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 58: Capitals at Lightning, February 18th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

No break for those who skate as the Washington Capitals, fresh off their 2-1 win over the Florida Panthers last night, head across the peninsula to face the Tampa Bay Lightning tonight in what could be a chance to leap-frog the Toronto Maple Leafs into eighth place in the Eastern Conference.

This will be the fourth meeting of the year between the…

“Cuz! You ‘bout ready for breakfast?”

In a minute, Cheerless, we’re busy here…

“Don’t be harsh, cousin, he’s proud of his culinary skills.”

Sure, sure…as we were saying, this will be the fourth meeting of the year between the clubs, the Caps having won twice – a 6-5 Gimmick win on October 10th and a 4-3 win on January 13th, both wins coming at Verizon Center. Tampa Bay won the third meeting, a 4-3 overtime win on January 31st in Tampa.

“Cuz, where do you keep the saffron?”

The what?

“He has something special planned.”

Right… Tonight’s opponent, the Tampa Bay Lightning, is struggling and is now in “seller” mode as the trading deadline approaches. Already, forward Dominic Moore was sent to San Jose for draft picks, and defenseman Pavel Kubina is being held off the ice as the team works out a deal for him.  Here is how the teams compare, numbers-wise:

(click pic for larger image)

“Where are the quail eggs?”

The what?!

“Just give him brown eggs, he won’t know the difference?”

Has he been DVR’ing episodes of Food Network, Fearless?

“Yes, he’s inspired.”

Just don’t let him burn the place down. Now, can we take five?

“I can’t…breakfast don’t make itself.”

Not that..oh, never mind.

1. As for the Lightning still with a future, Steven Stamkos must have gotten everything he wanted for Christmas. Since then he has 19 goals in 23 games, a 68-goal pace. He is also a minus-5 over that span, so there is what Stamkos gives the team and what the team takes away at the other end.

2. One thing Stamkos hasn’t been able to do with as much frequency is score all those goals on the power play. Since Christmas, three of his 19 goals have come on the power play. It is not as if the team around him has plugged the hole. The Lightning are 8-for-63 (12.7 percent) in those games.

3. If their power play has been poor, their penalty kill has been equally frustrating. In those last 19 games, the Lightning have allowed 15 power play goals in 71 shorthanded situations (78.9 percent). They have allowed a power play goal in each of their last three games heading into tonight’s contest.

4. No team in the league has more three-or-more goal losses than does Tampa Bay (14, tied with Dallas). Only one team has more two-goal losses. There isn’t much drama in Lightning losses.

5. Here’s your odd number for this game: three. Only three teams have allowed more power play goals at home than Tampa Bay. That is not surprising seeing as how Tampa Bay’s defense, well, sucks. But those three teams happen to be Philadelphia, San Jose, and Ottawa.

1. Abraham Lincoln once said, “No man stands so tall as when they stoop to help a child.” Well, no hockey player stands taller than when he helps a teammate score a goal. Nicklas Backstrom has missed 19 games. He still leads the Caps in assists (29). Guys, help each other out more.

2. Marcus Johansson has a 16.7 shooting percentage over his last 12 games. Unfortunately, he has only 12 shots in those 12 games, so that works out to two goals.

3. As bad as the Caps have been on the road, they might be coming out of that funk. In their last eight road games, they are 3-3-2 and allowed only 19 goals (2.38/game). They also killed off 22 of 26 shorthanded situations (84.6 percent).

4. The power play on the road? That’s another story. In their last eight road games the Caps are 2-for-27 (7.4 percent). The two power play goals came in two of the three road wins in that span (a 3-0 win at Montreal on January 18th and last night’s 2-1 win over Florida).

5. The 41 shots on goal last night came on the heels of a 42-shot effort against San Jose in their previous game. It was the first time the Caps recorded more than 40 shots on goal in consecutive games since getting 42 against Chicago last March 13th (a 4-3 overtime win) and 41 against Montreal last March 15th (a 4-2 win). Since the lockout, the Caps have not had three consecutive games with at least 40 shots on goal.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Mathieu Garon

In four of the last five games the Lighting allowed at least four goals. Mathieu Garon was the goalie of record in four of those games (1-2-1, 3.01, .904). He appears to be getting the start tonight. In eight career games against the Caps he is 3-1-1, 2.62, .903, with one shutout. Not spectacular numbers, but he does have the only Tampa Bay win over Washington this season.

Washington: Dennis Wideman

Dennis Wideman is fourth among all NHL defensemen in total scoring this season. He also would appear to be most likely to take over the assist lead on the Caps from Nicklas Backstrom (he has 28, one behind the injured center). He is also without a point in his last three games, two of which the Caps lost, and in which the Caps scored a total of only seven goals. A little more help from the blue line could mean a lot in the bigger scheme of things.

Keys:

1. Stomp ‘em flat. In 57 games this season, Tampa Bay has scored the first goal of the game 29 times, but has taken a lead into the first intermission only 14 times. That’s what happens when you allow the highest total of first period goals (61). The Caps have not been an especially adept team at scoring early – only 39 first period goals in 57 games (tied for 23rd with Columbus). This is the team against which they can reverse that trend.

2. Then stand on their throats. The Lightning are playing for pride and next year. They traded a dependable checking forward, are holding a minutes eating defenseman out of the lineup, and they are starting a journeyman goalie behind what is already a weak defensive team. Peel the weak team from the herd and stand on their throats.

3. There is even, and there is “even.” No team has allowed more 5-on-5 goals this season than Tampa Bay. The Caps, who had been drifting downward through the league standings at 5-on-5 goals for and against, unable to maintain a 1.00 ratio of goals for to goals against, are back above the 1.00 threshold (1.01) and are tied for tenth in the league. They need to take advantage in this area against a very weak – and weakened – team.

In the end, there is the potential for a letdown in the game following a big contest, especially when it comes only 24 hours later. That might be the more formidable opponent than the team the Caps are facing on the ice. One would expect that the Lightning appreciate the opportunity to play spoiler, especially against a divisional opponent they have had success against in the past (playoffs, anyone?). That is the combination that could spell trouble for the Caps – their own letdown and that spoiler mentality among their opponents. That makes this as much a “character” game as anything. Guess we get a peek at how much they have.

“Come’n git it!”

What the $#@% is that?

“You ain’t ever had Possum Frittata?”

Capitals 4 – Lightning 1

A TWO-point night: -- Game 57: Capitals 2 - Panthers 1

The longest journey starts with one step.

Maybe it will lead somewhere, and maybe they will trip and fall flat on their faces, but the Washington Capitals took that step last night in Florida by spotting the Panthers the game’s first goal, then coming back in the third period to take a 2-1 decision. The win pulled the Caps to within two points of Southeast Division-leading Florida and to within a point of eighth-place Toronto in the Eastern Conference.

This first step on the last part of this season’s journey was important in that the Caps have been a poor road team – worst in the Eastern Conference, in fact, going into this game (21 standings points being 15th in the conference). But they played a simple, uncomplicated game that gave Florida few chances on the ice and few chances for the announced crowd of 17,779 (half of which must have spent the entire game at the concession stands, because they weren’t in their seats) from getting into the game.

Not that the Caps played error-free. One thing that has seemed to be a lingering problem – late goals in a period – bit them again when Tomas Fleischmann converted a pass from Kris Versteeg with 40 seconds left in the first period for a 1-0 lead. That goal looked big at the time since the Panthers were 10-1-3 when leading after 20 minutes and 18-1-6 when scoring the game’s first goal. It looked even bigger when the Panthers carried that lead into the second intermission. They were 16-0-4 when leading after two periods of games this season.

But the Alexes took care of things for the Caps in the last 20 minutes. With Mikael Samuelsson off for a slashing penalty early in the third period, Alex Ovechkin converted the power play opportunity with a goal from a bad angle off a scramble in front of goalie Jose Theodore. It had the effect of tilting the ice in the Capitals’ favor, doubling Florida’s shot attempts, 10-5, over the next nine minutes. On the 11th attempt, Alexander Semin found the back of the net with a little bit of luck. A shot taken from the right wing boards caught the shaft of Sean Bergenheim’s stick and elevated ever so slightly, just enough to jump over the glove of Theodore, who looked prepared to defend what looked like a harmless shot.

After that, the Caps went into shutdown mode, limiting the Panthers to six shot attempts in the last 6:33 and only one shot on goal. It was enough to pump a bit of life into the playoff hopes of the Caps.

Other stuff…

-- All of a sudden, the Caps are a Gatling gun. Forty two shots on goal against San Jose, 41 last night against the Panthers. Now, about that shooting percentage. Five goals on 83 shots (6.0 percent) isn’t all that good. But at least getting pucks on net at one end helps limit pucks on their own net at the other end.

-- With his goal, Alex Ovechkin has seven in his last 13 games. That’s a 44-goal pace; not the Ovi of old, but not chopped liver either.

-- Alexander Semin now has goals in three of his last four games and four in his last seven (4-4-8). Last night’s goal was his first game-winner of the season.

-- Tomas Vokoun looked shaky at the start, as if he was fighting either nerves or the background in the arena. He was having particular trouble controlling pucks with his glove. But he finished strong and won his third game against the Panthers this season. He is 3-0-0, 0.33, .988 and two shutouts against Florida so far.

-- Every Cap had at least one shot on goal except for Jeff Schultz and Marcus Johansson. Schultz figures, he’s not much of an offensive defenseman, but Johansson’s lack of shots is becoming a problem. He has stopped shooting the puck. In his last 16 games he has a total of 12 shots on goal and has failed to record so much as one in eight of those games. This is something the Caps can’t afford from one who would be a top-six forward in Nicklas Backstrom’s absence.

-- Jay Beagle didn’t have a point, but he still had a nice game. Four shots on goal, five hits. He made his presence felt in ten minutes of ice time.

-- Speaking of Beagle, the line of Beagle, Joel Ward, and Jeff Halpern made a contribution in their “Occupy Florida’s Zone” game. This line had nine of the Caps’ 41 shots on goal. It meant that Jose Theodore didn’t get a break from the Washington attack when the fourth line was on the ice.

-- Mike Knuble… an assist and a disallowed goal. That disallowed goal could have been tough on the Caps, coming as it did with 45 seconds left in the second period and the Panthers having that unbeaten in regulation record when leading after 40 minutes. But the Caps won that third period,. As for the disallowed goal, it is hard to argue that it should have counted when Knuble was clearly in the paint before the initial shot by Brooks Laich and was not pushed in by any Panther. Still, that what the Caps have been missing lately, a big body to plant in the goalie’s face.

-- For weeks, it was the Caps who were on the short end of a shots/shot attempts margin. But last night they outshot the Panthers, 41-23, and outattempted them, 75-50. It is hard for any team to be on the short end of that and establish much in the way of consistent offensive rhythm. Last night, that was the other team’s problem.

-- The last time Tomas Vokoun and Jose Theodore faced one another in a game was November 12, 2010. Vokoun turned away 23 shots in beating Theodore’s Minnesota Wild, 2-1. Vokoun faced 23 shots last night in the 2-1 win.

In the end, it is only one step, but an important one. Falling six points behind Florida with 25 games to play could have been a fatal blow to the Caps’ chances to make the playoffs by winning the Southeast Division. But now they are two points behind the Panthers and get them one more time, in Washington on April 5th. Meanwhile, it is a road win, only their tenth of the season (only five teams have fewer). With four road contests in their next five games, it was important to take a strong first step. They get a chance to take another on tonight in Tampa.

Caps Throwback Jersey Record Update

Tonight the Caps go back to their road whites, so here is what they leave behind in the throwbacks, so far...

...a record of 2-3-2

Does Less Than Four Matter?

In the end, it’s wins and losses. Right now, the Caps have not enough of the former, too many of the latter. One line of argument goes that the too few wins to date is a product of too few games in which the big players are in the lineup. For the Caps, having the big four of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin, and Mike Green in the lineup has been an all-too-rare occurrence. Has it mattered? Well, there are a variety of player combinations to look at to see if presences and absences are attached to win-loss records. At the 25-games-left point of the season, what does it look like?

The Intact Fact

The Caps are 8-0-0 this season when each of the big four is in the lineup. Seven of those instances came in the 7-0-0 start to the season, the eighth game coming in a 3-1 Veterans Day win over New Jersey. In all other games, the Caps are 20-23-5. And that record includes the 16-14-4 record compiled under Dale Hunter, who has not had the good fortune to have those four in the lineup at the same time in any of the 34 games he has coached.

Having those four in the lineup mattered in terms of offense. In those eight wins the big four were 11-20-31 overall and were held as a group without a point only once. They were scoreless and a combined minus-7 in a 6-5 Gimmick win over Tampa Bay on October 10th. It is worth noting that while much attention has been focused on the fact that those eight games represent eight of the nine games played by Mike Green so far this season, Nicklas Backstrom was 2-9-11 in those eight games to lead the big four in points. Overall in those eight games, the Caps outscored their opponents by a 32-15 margin.

Three’ll Do…Not

This is more or less “The Green Effect.” The Caps have played 28 games with three of the big four in the lineup. Of those 27 games, Mike Green was the missing man in 26 of them (Alexander Semin was out of the lineup in the 3-1 win over Calgary on January 3rd). In the 27 games overall, the Caps were 11-15-2. And of the group, only Nicklas Backstrom averaged at least a point per game (9-19-28 in 28 games). The Alexes’ contributions dropped significantly, Semin’s dropping off a cliff – 8-7-15 (a 44-point pace over 82 games). It is worth noting that in the 26 games he did play as one of the remaining three of the big four, Semin had only two power play points (goal, assist).

With three of the big four in the lineup under Dale Hunter, the Caps are 8-6-1. In all but two of those games, the three have been Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Semin (Backstrom missed one game, Semin the other). The Caps have been reasonably successful under Hunter with three of the four in the lineup, and with Hunter having had no games with all four, it is not entirely clear that injuries – in this case one injury – have made a big difference under Hunter.

One Pair is a Weak Hand to Bet

In 17 games in which only two of the big four dressed, the Caps are 8-7-2. In 14 of them, Alex Ovechkin and Alexander Semin were the pair on the ice. Green missed all 17 games, Backstrom missed 14, and Semin missed three. Backstrom had three points in his three games as one of a pair (all with Ovechkin), and Semin had 12 points in the 14 games he played (again, all with Ovechkin). It was Ovechkin’s production that lagged a bit here and merits notice. He was 6-7-13 in the 17 games in which he played paired with either Semin or Backstrom. Of those games, Ovechkin had a pair of assists in the three games he played with Backstrom, one coming on a Backstrom goal, the other on a goal by Troy Brouwer. In the 14 games in which he was paired with Semin, Ovechkin had six goals of his own, but only five assists, a pace slightly below that which he has had over the entire season (29 versus 31). He has not been playing with linemates who can pick up some of the goal-scoring slack, and this has been slightly worse in the absence of Green and Backstrom.

All but one of the 17 games with a pair of the big four in the lineup have been played under Hunter to a record of 7-7-2. This is the hand that the Caps have holding for 14 of the last 18 games they have played, trying to bluff their way against teams at the table holding better hands. And until the Caps can make it at least three of a kind with the return of Mike Green or (pray for miracles) drawing two cards that say “Backstrom” and “Green,” treading water at .500 might be as much as Caps fans can realistically expect.

If the season ended today...

Ya-freakin'-hoo...

(graphic from NHL.com)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 57: Capitals at Panthers, February 17th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

We’re back, after a brief hiatus, pretty much where we left things when we last posted a preview for Game 54. In fact, it’s worse. We go away for a few days and…

-- The Caps lose two in a row.
-- The team’s cornerstone is likened to a “rock star” by an associate coach who isn't normally with the team on a regular basis, and not in a good way.
-- The cornerstone gets into a bit of a scrap with one of the team’s few remaining healthy and moderately productive defensemen, and the GM jokes that it was “the rock star against the all-star.”
-- The team calls up the prospect goalie to play because the number one has the flu and the number two isn’t standing on his head when he is in the lineup (he’s had three starts in the last four weeks, all losses).
-- Oh, and the team is raising ticket prices, as if McDonald’s decided that a stale bun, limp lettuce, rancid sauce and a cheap grade of meat merited a $5 price for their Big Mac (drive thru special handling price extra).

And now, the team heads off on the road to play five of their next six games away from Verizon Center leading up to the trading deadline at the end of the month.

We missing anything?

Meanwhile, in sunny south Florida, the Panthers are 5-3-0 in February. It’s not scorching the earth with their hot play, but it has been good enough to open a little room – four points – between themselves (65 points) and the Capitals (61 points). The 5-3-0 record has come in rather typical fashion for the Panthers. They have been outscored, 22-21 in those eight games, all three losses coming by at least three goals. When they stink, they reek. Or is that the other way around?

Here is how the teams stack up against one another in their numbers…

(click pic for larger image)

1. Florida is 1-5 in games settled in overtime, they have lost six of nine trick shot competitions. Only two teams in the league have fewer wins in extra time (Anaheim and Carolina), but this 11 points earned just by getting to – and losing – in extra time is the difference between third in the East and being a lottery pick.

2. Speaking of trick shots, the Panthers really stink at this at home. At least their goalies do. Scott Clemmensen… 0-2, .571 save percentage (26th in the league). Jose Theodore… 2-3, .647 save percentage (23rd). Jacob Markstrom… 0-1, .667 (T-18th). Combined, the Florida goalies have a save percentage of .630 in home trick shot competitions.

3. Their skaters aren’t much to brag about, either. The Panthers have only seven goals on 32 shots in nine après-overtime decisions. Only Stephen Weiss has more than one (two).

4. Florida has not yet played past the 60 minute mark in any game in February. The last time the Panthers went a full month (not including the abbreviated April schedule) without an extra time game was October 2010.

5. If Florida scores first, it is a virtual guarantee of a standings point. They have earned at least one standings point in 24 of 25 games in which they scored the first goal (18-1-6).

1. It is no more than a month since the Caps won consecutive games. They beat Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, and Carolina in succession, January 11-15. Since then they are 4-6-3.

2. In this unlucky 13 stretch the power play hasn’t been able to light an appliance bulb – 4-for-36 (11.1 percent).

3. Washington ranks 28th in the combined road power play/penalty killing efficiency index (88.9). Only Buffalo and Columbus are worse.

4. If Florida stinks at shootouts, the Caps…well. Their shooting percentage among the skaters isn’t bad (4-for-12), but the goalies? Six goals on 11 shots (.455 save percentage).

5. For all the Caps’ woes on offense this season, only two teams have been shutout fewer times (Detroit, New Jersey) than the two occasions on which Washington was blanked. Those two shutouts came in a four-day period last month in losses to the Islanders and Carolina by 3-0 scores.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Florida: Kris Versteeg

It really gets simple from here on out. The best players need to play like the best players down the stretch. Kris Versteeg seems to be keeping up his end of the bargain for the Panthers. He has five goals in his last ten games, including two in his last three. But despite being 5-4-9 in those games Versteeg is a minus-3.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

Same goes for the Caps…their best players have to be their best players. Ovechkin is 5-4-9 in his last nine games (and plus-1), but something he has not seemed able to do with any regularity this season are two things – have a singularly dominating performance against a quality club, and to be able to pull his teammates along with him when he is having a good game. Those 23 goals he has is one thing – goal scoring is down in the NHL, and his goal-scoring slump has been prolonged. But those 21 assists in 53 games. He is on a pace to finish with 31 assists, which would be 15 below his career low (46 in 2006-2007).

Keys:

1. Score First. Duh! No team has fewer losses in regulation than the Panthers (one) when they score first, and the Caps can’t afford to be giving away even stray standings points.

2. Beware the middle 20. Florida is not an especially high-scoring team in the second period, but if the Caps slip up here, it matters. Washington is one of only three teams not to have lost at all when leading after two periods (17-0-0), and Florida has not lost such a game in regulation (16-0-4).

3. Special delivery. If the Caps do not start winning on the road, they can kiss their playoff chances goodbye. They stink on the road largely because their special teams are awful on the road. So…better special teams, more wins. Logic.

In the end, this is as “must win” as a game can be with this much time left in the season. The Caps get no handicap for playing without key players, and those who remain healthy (Alex, Alexander, Brooks…this means you) have to dig deeper. Maybe it is still hard to take Florida seriously, given their recent history and their penchant for scraping together standings points by losing in extra time. But there the Panthers sit, four points ahead of the Caps. If they make it six, with 25 games left, the easiest path to the playoffs for the Caps – winning the Southeast – becomes so much harder.

Caps 4 – Panthers 2

That Was The Week That Was -- Week 18 (February 5 - 11)

Week 18 looked a lot like Week 17, which means it looked like a lot of weeks so far this season…

Record: 1-1-1

The Caps do not have many losing weeks this season – only four, in fact. By the same token, they have a lot of weeks like these. This was their sixth week finishing .500 in points, their second straight 1-1-1 week. But what makes this week even more disappointing than the last, despite the identical records, is the fact that this week’s 1-1-1 mark was achieved at home. The Caps were dominated by Boston, who went out to a 3-0 lead and rode the goaltending of Tim Thomas the rest of the way to a win. Then the Caps coughed up a 2-0 lead in the last 2:15 of regulation to Winnipeg – the second goal coming on a fluke 90-footer that Karl Alzner deflected on the way in – before losing in a Gimmick to the Jets. The losses sandwiched Tomas Vokoun’s fourth shutout of the season, a 4-0 win over Florida that briefly put the Caps ahead of the Panthers in the Southeast Division. Unfortunately, the Caps found themselves not only behind Florida once more by week’s end, but out of the playoff top-eight entirely.


Offense: 2.33/game (season: 2.78/rank: 11th)

This week it was pretty much Alex Ovechkin and not a lot else. Ovechkin had three of the Caps’ seven goals this week to give him 23 for the season and six in his last ten games. Four other skaters had one apiece, but what was noteworthy was that some streaks continued unabated – Joel Ward extended his streak without a goal to 15 games. Mike Knuble extended his to 27 games before being a healthy scratch against Winnipeg. Jeff Halpern – 25 games. Roman Hamrlik – 44 games. One cannot expect that Nicklas Backstrom’s and Mike Green’s production will be replaced easily, but the Caps need these guys to step up occasionally. That they have not at all on the score sheet in the last few weeks – or months – is the difference between third place and ninth place.

Defense: 2.00/game (season: 2.76/rank: 15th)

Allowing 99 shots is not particularly poor, but 215 shot attempts in three games is a bit much, especially when you are generating only 158 shot attempts of your own. Shot loads can be a bit misleading in this respect. Even though the Caps were out-shot only 94-99 this week, their goaltenders (well, “goaltender,” since Tomas Vokoun played in all three games) still has to defend as if each of those shot attempts is getting through, except for that empty-netter scored by Boston in the week’s first game. Again, the Caps are just relying too much on goaltending and not doing nearly enough to take the pressure of them.

Goaltending: 1.63/.949, one shutout

Tomas Vokoun had a fine week, even with allowing three goals on 29 shots against Boston. He had the shutout in a big win over Floirda, stopping all 42 shots. Although one thing that should be said about that game is that he did appear to get a clean look at just about every shot he turned away. And even though he allowed two goals on 27 shots against Winnipeg, one came on a scramble in front with the Jets skating 6-on-3 with their goalie pulled on a power play, and the other came on an odd deflection of a 90-foot shot by Dustin Byfuglien that clipped the stick of Karl Alzner on the way in and changed direction before hitting the back of the net. It was another week in which goaltending was not the problem, another week of wasting some fine efforts, and another week wondering that if the goaltending starts to falter, it won’t crash quickly and loudly with all the work.

Power Play: 3-for-7/42.9 percent (season: 18.6 percent/rank: 12th)

Three of the Caps’ seven goals this week came on the power play. They scored those goals on the last seven power play shots they took for the week. It was made better by who got the goals – Alex Ovechkin had two, and Alexander Semin had the other. These guys have to be regular contributors on the power play, especially with Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green out. By any measure it was a good week. And a good thing, too, since the Caps had only three even strength goals for the week (plus one shorthanded).

Penalty Killing: 8-for-10/80.0 percent (season: 80.9%/rank: 24th)

The other side of the special teams ledger was not good, not bad. It would have been a lot better but for the two late power play goals allowed to Winnipeg (including the fluke tying goal). In that respect it is hard to be too hard on the penalty killers, except to note that the Caps have one win in ten tries when allowing two or more power play goals, the only win coming on opening night against Carolina. This week it might have been a case of the goalie being the best penalty killer. Tomas Vokoun stopped 18 of 20 shots on goal when the Caps were shorthanded.

Paying the Price: 71 hits/67 blocked shots (season rank: 13th/6th)

Blocked shots are again an indicator of shot attempts. The Caps topped 20 twice this week and again were over 30 percent of blocked shots (67) to total shot attempts (215), 31.2 percent. On the hits side of the ledger, the big game came against Florida, where the Caps were credited with outhitting Florida, 31-19. Of the 18 skaters, 16 were credited with hits for the Caps, only Karl Alzner and Keith Aucoin not getting on the hit meter.

Faceoffs: 90-for-181/49.7 percent (season: 50.4 percent/rank: 12th)

It was a lot like the rest of the week for the Caps – not good, not bad. The Boston game skewed the results, and not in a good way. Looking at offensive and defensive zone draws,the Caps and Bruins were relatively even in total, but the Bruins owned the Caps, winning 16 of 23 in their defensive zone and 14 of 25 in their offensive zone. The Caps did better in the last two games of the week to make a week of it, but Boston is a team against which the Caps were thought to be competitors. These days, not so much.

Turnovers: minus-26

The Caps lost each game and lost the week big. That is what 38 giveaways in three games will do. It was not a good week for the Caps in this regard, especially in the Winnipeg game, where the Caps were minus-11.

Impressions:

The Caps are seeing their season slowly bleed away. In their first 12 full weeks of the season they had six winning weeks and three .500 weeks. In their last six weeks that have had two winning weeks and four .500 weeks. They have avoided losing weeks, but they are not putting together any consistent run of good play that is reflected in wins and losses.

The schedule is about to become a bit more difficult in that the Caps will face San Jose, having already lost to the Rangers to start this week, before heading out on a four-game road trip. The Caps have seven games left before the trading deadline to figure things out – whether Mike Green is coming back soon, whether Nicklas Backstrom is coming back at all this season, whether to be a buyer or a seller, or to stand pat and roll the dice with the lineup they have.

No one would have expected this amount of uncertainty, this sort of riding the fence situation, this seemingly interminable run of .500 play.

A ONE-point night -- Game 54: Jets 3 - Capitals 2 (OT/Gimmick)

You can rationalize it away by saying that there are just some games you are going to win, and there are just some games you are going to lose. You cannot explain it. It happens.

Last night the Washington Capitals lost in a Gimmick to the Winnipeg Jets, 3-2, in a game that had enough hijinks in the last 11 minutes of regulation to make up for the relatively uninteresting 49 minutes that preceded it. Not that the Caps lacked chances to put the game away in those first 49 minutes. They outshot the visitors by 26-20 in those first 49 minutes and carried play. The Caps just could not direct any of those shots past Jets goaltender Ondrej Pavelec. Then again, Winnipeg could not solve Caps goaltender Tomas Vokoun, either.

Alex Ovechkin broke the scoreless tie on a power play by converting a shot that Alexander Semin fired wide to Pavelec’ right and off the end boards. The puck rebounded onto Ovechkin’s stick on the other side of the Jet’s net, and Ovechkin snapped it into the open net from a severe angle. Less than three minutes later, Ovechkin returned the favor on another power play when he surveyed the ice from the left wing boards and found Semin pinching in behind defenseman Mark Stuart. Ovechkin threaded a pass through traffic to set up Semin from the doorstep for the goal that seemed to give the Caps an insurmountable 2-0 lead.

Then things went all weird. With 4:05 left, Roman Hamrlik took a slashing penalty. With more than three minutes left and the Jets on a power play Jets’ coach Claude Noel pulled Pavelec for an extra skater to make things 6-on-4. Then, Brooks Laich was called for playing the puck with a broken stick to create a 5-on-3 that became a 6-on-3 when Noel left Pavelec on the bench. With the Jets skating to what amounted to a three-man advantage, they scored 41 seconds after the Laich penalty on a Evander Kane goal through a pile up in front of Vokoun.

Then there was the play that fairly shouted, “there are just some games you are going to lose.” Dustin Byfuglien was skating through the neutral zone, wound up, and fired a shot from 90 feet that had all the look of just getting the puck deep into the Caps’ zone to give the Jets a chance to get Pavelec off the ice one last time. The shot ticked off the shaft of defenseman Karl Alzner’s stick, changed direction, bounced 20 feet from the Caps’ net, and sailed past Vokoun’s blocker into the net to tie the game.

The Caps would have one last chance, this coming in overtime when Byfuglien handed them the opportunity in the form of taking a tripping penalty with 18 seconds left. But this being a game the Caps by now seemed destined to lose, they could managed only one shot attempt, that coming from Ovechkin in the last second as he was being slashed by Tanner Glass. The shot was blocked by Mark Stuart, and the game went to the Gimmick. At that point it was just record-keeping. Bryan Little had the winning trick shot, and the Jets came all the way back from 0-2 down with 7:30 left in the game to get two points.

Other stuff…

-- One could say this was one of those games the Caps were just going to lose, but at the end of the season, the extra point they did not get in this one might haunt them all off-season. They had their chances to put this one away early. Actually, Ovechkin had the chances to put this one away early. He was on the business end of a 2-on-1 break that Pavelec trapped against his leg in the second period. Only minutes later Ovechkin rang a shot off the crossbar on a power play.

-- Having said that, this game was as “Ovechkin-like” as any he has played this season. A goal, an assist, several good chances, ten shot attempts, two hits, three blocked shots, all in 20 minutes of ice time. He is 6-4-10, plus-3 in his last ten games.

-- Allowing multiple power play goals is not conducive to winning. The Caps gave up two, and it resulted in their ninth straight loss this season when giving up more than one such goal. The only win in such situations came on opening night when the Caps allowed two to Carolina in a 4-3 overtime win.

-- The Caps did a lot of things right in this game that they haven’t done lately. Take shots, for instance. The Caps outshot Winnipeg, 34-27. Five of those shots for the Jets came on the two late power plays in a span of 28 seconds (and they scored their two goals). It doesn’t take long in this game to work 55 minutes at doing things right and having it blow up in your face in an instant.

-- Doing things right, part two. Faceoffs…the Caps have spent a lot of games taking a significantly higher number of draws in their own end than in the offensive zone. Last night the Caps took 24 faceoffs in the offensive zone (winning 17 of them) and only 16 in the defensive zone (winning eight). It is worth noting that on both power play goals the Caps scored, they took place after faceoff wins in the offensive zone. And who was it leading the way on draws? Well, probably the unlikeliest pair – Mathieu Perreault (7-of-9) and Marcus Johansson (8-of-13, including both of the wins that got the Caps started on their power play goals).

-- On the other hand, Marcus Johansson did not attempt any shots in almost 20 minutes of ice time. He is a playmaker first, but with so much offense sitting on the bench, the Caps need other players to step up and try to create something.

-- Just one…if just one of the six shots Dmitry Orlov put on net had gone in. His six shots led the team. On top of that he had three hits, three blocked shots, and he skated almost 24 minutes (behind only John Carlson and Karl Alzner).

-- One player seems to have put concussion symptoms behind him, at least for one game. In addition to his goal, Evander Kane had four hits – tied for the lead among all skaters for both teams.

-- For what it is worth (and it would be worth nothing, other that water cooler trivia), the Caps have not allowed a Winnipeg even strength goal in the last 134:16. And yet for that all they have to show for it is an overtime win (after keeping the Jets off the scoreboard for the last 9:16 of the Caps’ 4-3 overtime win on November 23rd), a 1-0 win, and a Gimmick loss.

-- And for what this is worth (not even trivia), Tomas Vokoun went from a save percentage of 1.000 in shootouts to .500. OK, so he is now 2-for-4.

-- Should the “playing with broken stick” have been called on Brooks Laich? That’s a tough one. It is hard for a player, in the rush of the moment, to check to see if his stick is legal. On the other hand, it was broken, and Rule 10.3 states, “A player whose stick is broken may participate in the game provided he drops the broken stick.” Like we said, that’s a tough one. Let’s at least hope the referees are consistent in applying the rule.

-- Injuries don't explain all the less-than-inspiring play of the Caps for the last month, but they can explain this one. The stars still in uniform -- Ovechkin and Semin -- got the goals. But the support players didn't. They are not going to every night, much as we wish it was so. And last night was one of those nights they didn't. Folks, they are support players, they are not stars. This was a game in which Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green were missed.

In the end, that second point that the Caps did not get in this game is the one that will haunt them if they fail to make the playoffs by one point. And it is how they let it get away. With what looked like a safe lead – Winnipeg was not making life difficult for the Caps in the offensive end much all night – the Caps took bang-bang penalties, and then allowed bang-bang goals 12 seconds apart, the game-tying goal coming on the kind of fluke play that can only have one think that fate already put this in the loss column.

It goes to show how fast a team can go from “shutout” to “shootout,” the difference of just a few letters… from a win “U” can count on to “oh-oh.”

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 54: Jets at Capitals

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals have once more assumed their rightful place at the top of the Southeast Division, and now they embark on solidifying their gains from Tuesday’s 4-0 shutout of the Florida Panthers. They start down that path by hosting the Winnipeg Jets on Thursday. For the Caps it is a chance to add to their conference-leading record at home this season (19-7-1, 39 points, three points ahead of Boston and Toronto). That home record is what is keeping the Caps afloat in the playoff race, and one wonders what they have to do to keep those home fires burning, to ….

“Vut zeems to be ze pr-r-r-r-oblem?”

Professor. Just the man to tackle this thorny question of how the Caps can keep this home record humming and maybe find a way to take some of the magic on the road with them.

“Hmmm… not egggsackly r-r-r-r-ocket science, is it?”

Well, the Caps haven’t figured it out yet.

“Ja…I zee. Vell, let us look at ze zzzzchedule. Ze Cepps heff 29 games left, ja?

Ja…uh, yes. Fourteen on at home and 15 on the road.

“OK…let’s schtart mit dat. Ze Cepps heff 39 points in 27 home games zo far. Zat verks out to…”

1.44 standings points per home game.

“uh, ja… I vuss never too gut mit math-e-matics… 1.44 points per game. If zey do zat vell in ze last 14 games, ve heff…”

20 points.

“You vant to do ziss?”

No, go on, Professor.

“20 points… Add zat to ze 60 zey heff, and vee heff…”

We have…

“80 points. Try to keep up, eh? If you azzume zat ze eight place team needs 93 points to make eight place – dat’s vutt ze Floridas are on a pace for to vinish eight – zen ze Cepps need 13 more points from ze road games.”

They have 15 more to play.

“Ja, zat whole ‘vinn at home, schplitt on ze road’ makes zense, ja?”

Prof…I didn’t know you followed sports that closely.

“Are you kiddink? Who do you zink taught Professor Brr-r-r-radley all he knows?”

Huh…whodafigured?

The first order of business is taking care of the Winnipeg Jets. The Caps are 2-1-0 in the season series to date. In the lone game played at Verizon Center in the series, the Caps won a 4-3 overtime decision. It was a game in which the Caps surrendered one-goal leads three times before Jason Chimera ended it 1:52 into the extra session. Concerning more recent performance, the Jets come into this game having struggled with their 2012 portion of the schedule. Since January 1st the Jets are 6-10-1 and represent another instance of a team in the Southeast incapable of taking the division in a firm grip while their competition struggles.

One of the problems has been the absence of leading goal-scorer Evander Kane with a concussion for seven games. He returned to the ice on Tuesday in 2-1- win over Toronto, skating 13:44 without leaving a mark on the score sheet. In fact, Kane has not recorded a point since assisting on the game-winning overtime goal by Johhny Oduya in a 2-1 win over Buffalo on January 7th. He hasn’t scored a goal since he had the game-winner a 1-0 overtime win over Los Angeles on December 29th. Winnipeg’s struggles have gone hand in glove with Kane’s absence from the score sheet and the lineup.

Overall, the teams look like this so far this season:

(click pic for larger image)

1. Shutouts follow the Jets around. Over their last 19 games the Jets have played in six games that ended in a shutout – two they won and four that they lost. The last time these teams met the game ended in – you guessed it – a shutout. The Caps rode a 26-save effort by Michal Neuvirth and a goal by Alex Ovechkin with 1:14 left to a 1-0 win in Winnipeg.

2. When the Jets lose, they don’t often lose close. Of the 24 losses Winnipeg has suffered in regulation, half of them have been by margins of at least three goals.

3. Winnipeg does the hard stuff on the road reasonably well. They are fourth in the league in hits recorded on the road, third in blocked shots, seventh in takeaways, and they have the fifth lowest number of giveaways.

4. One thing that gets the Jets in trouble is penalties. Only three teams have taken more minor penalties than have the Jets. Only three teams have found themselves shorthanded more often on the road. The combination leaves Winnipeg having allowed more power play goals on the road than all but four other teams.

5. If hockey was a 40-minute game, the Jets would probably make the playoffs. They have outscored opponents, 46-44, in the first period of games so far. They have outscored them, 48-47, in the second period. But the third period – ugh. They have been outscored 32-54.

1. The Caps are 4-4-2 in their last ten games – 2-2-0 at home, 2-2-2 on the road.

2. The Caps are almost mirror images of themselves, home and road. At home they have outscored their opponents by an 82-64 margin, while on the road they have been outscored, 66-83.

3. Special teams are another instance of mirror images. The Caps have 20 power play goals at home and have allowed 11. On the road those numbers are 10 power play goals scored and 23 power play goals allowed.

4. Twelve times in 27 home games the Caps have scored four or more goals. On the road, that number drops to six of 26 games. Six times in 27 home games the Caps have been held to one of no goals. On the road, eight times in 26 games.

5. In four of their last five home games the Caps have had but a single power play opportunity. They have had only 11 such opportunities in their last six games overall.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Winnipeg: Eric Fehr

Remember Eric Fehr? In 230 games as a Capital, Fehr averaged 16 goals per 82 games played. Not elite, but given the ice time he received it was not a bad number. In 30 games with Winnipeg, Fehr has one goal (January 10th at Boston). He has one assist (November 29th against Ottawa). His 2.1 percent shooting percentage ranks in a tie for 617th among 840 skaters. He lives in the land of defensemen, that shooting percentage being equal to that of Jakub Kindl, Zbynek Michalek, and Sergei Gonchar, and just behind Milan Jurcina (2.2 percent). He has had to deal with another shoulder injury that had kept him out of 24 games, but this was not the way it was supposed to go upon his return to Manitoba.

Washington: Mathieu Perreault

So now he is a scorer. And not just a scorer, but a reliable one at the moment. Mathieu Perreault is 6-3-9, plus-6 over his last nine games, but almost as important is that he has points in six of those nine games. He is being rewarded with ice time (more than 13 minutes a game in these nine contests, compared to barely ten minutes per game for the full season). Three of those goals are game-winners. And he is doing it in economical fashion – six goals on a total of 18 shots (33.3 percent). One can only imagine what the Caps record would have been over those last nine games without that contribution; it was only 4-3-2 as it was. It indicates how badly the Caps need secondary scorers to step up in the absence of Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green.

Keys:

1. 40 minutes. The Caps are 17-0-0 when leading after 40 minutes (tied for first in the league); the Jets are 0-19-3 when trailing after 40 minutes (tied for last in the league). No mystery here.

2. Isn’t that special? Nowhere is the home-road difference in Washington’s play more evident than on special teams. Second in home power play efficiency, fifth in home penalty killing efficiency. Conversely, Winnipeg is not an especially successful team on either side of special teams on the road. This difference must be exploited.

3. Sight lines. The Caps did a good job of providing a clean line of sight for goalie Tomas Vokoun to pick up shots in the 4-0 win over Florida. This is pretty basic and one of the rules of the NHL – if a goalie can see a shot, he’s going to stop it.

In the end, it is another chance for the Caps to put some distance between themselves and one of their closest pursuers for a playoff spot. This will be a little different in that the Caps are now the hunted, as the top team in the Southeast, and Winnipeg should have a heightened sense of desperation given that they are four points behind the Caps (Washington has two games in hand) and five out of eighth place in the East (with a game in hand on Ottawa). Complicating the matter for Washington is the fact that Jets’ goalie Ondrej Pavelec has turned away 216 of 224 shots (.964 save percentage) from the Caps over the last two seasons. It makes for an interesting contest.

Capitals 3 – Jets 2