2011-2012 By the Tens -- Goaltenders: Braden Holtby

Braden Holtby

Theme: “I would rather be a superb meteor, every atom of me in magnificent glow, than a sleepy and permanent planet.”
-- Jack London

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The city of Lloydminster lies squarely on the border of the Canadian provinces of Saskatchewan and Alberta. It is not two cities of the same name in different provinces; it is one city – a part in one province, a part in another.

Sort of like Lloydminster’s contribution to the roster of NHL goaltenders, Braden Holtby, who was one goalie spending time in Hershey with the AHL Bears and spending time with Washington with the NHL Capitals.

Holtby saw this movie once before, having split time between Hershey and Washington in the 2010-2011 season. He was recalled from Hershey to Washington four times in the regular season, and in those four recalls he posted a superb 10-2-2, 1.79, .934 record with two shutouts. One might have chalked it up to its being a fluke, a product of a young goaltender fueled by the adrenaline of his first call up and the fact that opposing teams did not have a book on his style.

Fair enough. Forward to the 2011-2012 season, where Holtby started his season once more in Hershey. Would he take the lessons learned in his brief stay with the Caps the previous season and apply them as the number one goalie for the Bears? It did not look that way to start the season. He was 3-3-0, 2.99, .886 for October. He was 2-2-1, 2.43, .892 in November. Maybe he was bored, but it still did not look good. In fact, it made the signing of Tomas Vokoun as a free agent for the Caps look even better, since Holtby was giving the impression that he was not really ready for prime time.

Holtby righted himself somewhat over the next two months, posting save percentages of .902 in December and .915 in January. It earned him a call-up on February 13th to replace Vokoun, who had come down with the flu. Given that in his first call-up in 2010-2011 he won his first two decisions (one earned in relief of Michal Neuvirth), stopping 27 of 29 shots in the process, good things might have been expected. Uh, no. He was chum on frozen water for the San Jose Sharks, who ate him up to the tune of five goals on 35 shots in a 5-3 win.

The shock of that did not last long, however. He was sent back to Hershey the next day, where he plodded along for the rest of the month of February with a 4-3-1, 2.60, .909 record. But when Vokoun suffered what would be a season-ending groin injury, Holtby was called up once more. And he was thrown in the deep end right away, facing the Red Wings in Detroit. He won that game, 5-3, and starting with that contest would go 4-1-1, 1.99, .936, with a shutout to finish the season.

A good thing, too, because along the way, Michal Neuvirth was injured in a 4-2 win over the Florida Panthers in what would be his last game of the season. With the playoffs about to begin, the keys to the car were in the hands of a goalie with 21 games of experience. And this was not like Semyon Varlamov taking over in the post-season with only six games of regular season experience in 2009; at least he still had a veteran behind him (Jose Theodore, who Varlamov replaced in Game 2 of the opening round). Holtby’s safety-net (at least to start the playoffs) would be Dany Sabourin, who had not played an NHL game since January 2009 and did not have an NHL win since December 2008.

Turns out he did not need one. The win-loss record will say that Holtby was 7-7 – winning one seven-game series, losing the other – but in doing so he allowed more than two goals only three times in those 14 games. His 1.95 goals against average will end the post-season as third best (unless Los Angeles’ Jonathan Quick allows 17 goals over three more 60-minute games, in which case Holtby would finish second to Henrik Lundqvist). His .935 save percentage is third (unless Quick allows those 17 goals on fewer than 177 shots on goal, in which case Holtby would finish second to Phoenix’ Mike Smith).

And, his playoff performance was marked by a certain consistency to it, not to mention a certain steeliness. Of the five post-season goalies with a GAA or 2.00 or better and a save percentage of .930 or better, Holtby is the only one without a shutout. He did it by consistently shutting down opponents. One could argue that the result was as much Coach Dale Hunter’s button-downed philosophy or the Caps throwing themselves in front of just about every shot attempted, and there is truth in this. But Holtby, in the end, was the guy who had to stop the pucks getting through, and few did it better in the post-season than he did. Here is how his small sample of games this year compared with his small sample of games last season:

Odd Holtby Fact… Holtby’s career save percentages have improved with each successively higher rung on the ladder -- .905 in the Western Hockey League (juniors), .911 in the ECHL, .918 in the AHL, and .929 with the Caps.

Game to Remember… April 12, 2012. Normally, we would confine this to regular season games, but how can this game be passed over? You are for all intents and purposes the third-string goalie, playing your first NHL career playoff game in the arena that the defending Stanley Cup champions and heavily favored Boston Bruins play. You stop all nine shots in the first period…so good so far. Then, you are the only thing keeping your team from utter disaster as you face 17 shots to the other goalie’s facing only two in the second period. He stops his two; you stop your 17. The roles are reversed a bit in the third period (Caps outshooting the Bruins, 9-3), but none of the shots go in, and the teams go to a scoreless overtime. Yes, the Bruins found a hole barely a minute into the overtime, but Braden Holtby pitched a 60-minute shutout in his first dip into the pressure-cooker of the Stanley Cup playoffs. How is that not the game to remember?

Game to Forget… March 27, 2012. Oh, that one against San Jose in his season debut qualifies. But that’s not it. As the season was winding down, and the Caps were fighting for that last playoff spot, Holtby made his contribution by shutting out the Minnesota Wild, 3-0. But that game was played on March 25th. In his next game, he pretty much crapped the bed against the Buffalo Sabres. It started when he tried to play the puck behind his own net mid-way through the first period. As he was about to send the puck around to his right, he saw that Sabre Cody McCormack was a little too close to John Carlson for comfort to risk the pass. So, he spun around and tried to get the puck to Jeff Schultz. Brad Boyes picked up on what Holtby wanted to do and sprinted down the wall to intercept the pass and center it to McCormack for an easy tap-in.

It got worse late in the period. He could not control the rebound of a shot by Tyler Myers, then when two Sabres swung at the loose puck and missed, Drew Stafford got a whack. Holtby couldn’t control that one, either, the puck trickling through his pads. Stafford got to the puck behind Holtby before he could lunge back to cover it, and Stafford had his easy tap-in. When Thomas Vanek scored just 2:31 into the second period to give the Sabres a 3-0 lead, Holtby’s night was over with three goals allowed on 18 shots in a 5-1 Buffalo win.

In the end… Holtby has been exceeding expectations since he was drafted in the fourth round (93rd overall) in the 2008 entry draft. Nine goalies were taken ahead of Holtby in that draft, and so far only two of them (Thomas McCollum and Jacob Markstrom) have appeared in any NHL regular season games, and Holtby has appeared in more than twice as many (21) as that pair, combined (nine). The 14 playoff games in which he has appeared is 13 more than the only other goalie in the 2008 class to have appeared in one, Nashville’s Anders Lindback. On the basis of his performance in the 2012 playoffs, he has to be considered as a co-favorite with Michal Neuvirth to take the number one job on a full-time basis for the 2012-2013 season. He has just that last step to take to cross the last border, from his apprenticeship in the AHL to a permanent place in the NHL.

Grade: A+

2011-2012 By the Tens -- Forwards: Joel Ward

Joel Ward

Theme: “We love to expect, and when expectation is either disappointed or gratified, we want to be again expecting.”
-- Samuel Johnson

“I’d rather have someone that gets 10-15 [goals] in the regular season but delivers in the playoffs than someone who gets 25 and doesn’t.”

When Washington Capitals General Manager George McPhee uttered those words upon signing unrestricted free agent Joel Ward to a four-year, $12 million contract last summer, he might have been speaking for a whole legion of Caps fans who were aching for just such a player to help deliver them from the wilderness of playoff despair to a Stanley Cup. Or at least something other than the perennial early exit from the playoffs.

No pressure, eh? It might have been a lot to heap on a player who, despite being 31 years of age had played in the equivalent of just less than three-full regular seasons worth of games in the NHL (241). But the regular season really was not the object of the exercise with signing Ward. Sure, he had a reputation as a hard-working, do the little things kind of player who could contribute as a third-liner, and even chip in some power play goals (11 over his previous three seasons).

What the Caps, and no doubt Caps fans, saw was the fact that in 18 playoff games in his career with the Nashville Predators he had nine goals. Anything Ward might contribute in the regular season would be accepted with thanks, but one had to think it was with the spring in mind that he was signed, to provide the Caps with that elusive “something” they seem to lack every season when the flowers bloom.

Things started rosy enough for Ward in the regular season portion of the year. Partnered with Brooks Laich and Jason Chimera in what was called in some circles the “Meat and Potatoes” line, Ward contributed a 4-3-7, plus-6 scoring line in his first 12 games. Four…twelve…nice symmetry with that whole contract thing. And that was a 27-goal pace with which he was starting the season. Certainly he would halt his own personal slide in regular season goal scoring that say his total drop from 17 in the 2008-2009 season to 13 in 2009-2010 and to 10 last season in Nashville.

Things did not turn out that way. After potting a goal against the New York Islanders on November 5th in a 5-3 Caps loss, Ward would go the next 25 games without a goal before he would notch one against San Jose on January 7th. Then another 21 games without a goal before finding the back of the net against Montreal on February 24th. Meanwhile, over these 48 games Ward would see his ice time cut from the mid teens to single digits. From January 22nd through March 10th – a span of 22 games – he has as much as ten minutes of ice time only eight times. After that stretch he would be scratched in eight of the last 14 games of the regular season.

In all, after his promising 4-3-7, plus-6 start in his first dozen games, Ward was 2-9-11, plus-6 in his last 61 contests. The general problem was what might have been a Catch-22. Player goes into slump, gets ice time cut, gets fewer offensive opportunities on what is an energy (not a scoring) line, can’t demonstrate merits of moving back to a third line slot, gets stuck in low-ice time/poor offensive potential situations. And that was manifest in Ward’s shot totals. He has not been what you would call a “high-efficiency” shooter. He’s more the whach-the-rock-‘til-it-cracks” sort. His shooting percentage in Nashville declined over his three years there, from 12.8 to 9.7 to 6.4 percent. But he never had fewer than 130 shots on goal. This season Ward’s shooting percentage actually pick up a bit (7.6 percent), but he had only 79 shots on goal in 73 games. Three of the Caps’ defensemen playing in at least 50 games had more shots on goal per game.

Oddly enough, his underlying numbers probably outpaced his summary numbers, a function of his defensive work. His PDO value of 1027 was second among Capital forwards skating at 5-on-5 and playing in at least 20 games. That was a product of his on-ice save percentage being best among those forwards, and by a significant margin (.944 to Jay Beagle’s .937). One might have thought that as a fourth-liner, this number would be mitigated by the fact that he would not have been expected to face top-notch offensive talent. Still, his quality of competition ranked a respectable fifth among Caps forwards. Put another way, he was on ice for only 25 goals against in 73 games, by far best among forwards playing in more than half the Caps’ games this season (Mathieu Perreault was second with 31 goals against on ice in 64 games). Here is how his numbers compare with those he recorded in Nashville last season:

Odd Ward Fact… Despite going 11-2-13 on the power play in 230 games with Nashville over three seasons, Ward did not register so much as a power play point with the Caps this season and had a total of 10:26 of power play ice time for the season.

Game to Remember… October 21, 2011. The Caps were on a roll, having won their first five games of the season, but on this night would go into a difficult place from which to emerge with the streak intact – Philadelphia. And the Flyers were off to a fine start of their own, winning four of their first five games (losing only to the Los Angeles Kings in overtime) and coming off a 7-2 drubbing of Ottawa. The Flyers drew first blood on a goal by Claude Giroux late in the first period, but before the horn would sound for the first intermission, Mathieu Perreault and Alex Ovechkin would score to give the Caps a lead. The Caps iced the game in the second period when Roman Hamrlik and Ovechkin scored 1:31 apart early in the frame. Then, if the Flyers had any lingering ideas of a comeback, Joel Ward redirected a drive from Jeff Schultz past goalie Ilya Bryzgalov with defenseman Kimmo Timonen draped all over him to notch his first goal as a Capital.

Game to Forget… February 1, 2012. Things were not going well for the Caps, who were 2-3-1 to close the month of January, nor for Joel Ward, who had one goal in his previous 36 games as he and the Caps prepared to visit the Florida Panthers. Neither the Caps nor Ward could climb out of their fog. The Caps fell behind early and never threatened, and Ward would be limited to 13 shifts – four of his last six lasting less than 15 seconds – in a 4-2 loss to the Panthers. Ward finished the night with no shot attempts, a hit, and a blocked shot for his 6:18 of effort, his lowest ice time total since he skated 5:52 as a rookie with the Minnesota Wild in a 4-2 win over the Edmonton Oilers on January 12, 2007.

Post Season… Dale Hunter, Joe Juneau, and Joel Ward. These are the only three players in franchise history to clinch a playoff series with an overtime goal. Hunter was the first to do so in a Game 7, and Ward was the second…



In the end… Did Joel Ward have a good season? No, certainly not what was expected, at least from the offensive side of the ledger. Was he used in a manner consistent with the situations in which he was successful in Nashville (for instance, power play time)? No. But one should not overlook the fact that he had a pretty good year on the defensive side of the ledger, and there is that whole overtime goal thing. As infrequently as the Caps have had such things to celebrate – or even playoff series wins to celebrate – Ward gets high marks for making his mark in Capitals history.

Grade: B-

2011-2012 By the Tens -- Forwards: Alexander Semin

Alexander Semin

Theme: “Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can?”
--Sun Tzu

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In five seasons he played since the lockout before this season, Alexander Semin scored goals at a rate of 40 per 82 games played. Of the 166 goals he scored in those five seasons, 49 of them were power play goals; 25 of them were game-winners. He even had three shorthanded goals. He had six hat tricks, four of them coming last season. Remarkably, only three of his 166 goals scored in these five seasons were of the empty net variety. Alexander Semin might be in the top-five in the entire league as a pure goal scorer.

So what was up with this season?

The 21 goals with which Alexander Semin finished the 2011-2012 season represented his lowest total for a full season in his seven-year career (he had 10 in 52 games in his rookie season of 2003-2004). It was not as if he was fighting through obvious injury. He had two short stints on the bench this season – one for an arm injury, the other for a shoulder injury.

It was not as if he had one prolonged slump that sabotaged his season. If you look at his ten-game segments, only once did he score at that “40-goal” pace that had characterized his post-lockout performance to date (the fourth segment in which he had five goals in nine games).

What was happening was he was falling off in accuracy. In the five seasons preceding this one, Semin was reliable in his shooting percentage, finishing his seasons in a tight range of 14.1 to 15.6 percent (14.8 percent average over the five seasons). But in 2011-2012 Semin finished at 11.5 percent. Couple that with the fact that his 183 shots on goal was his lowest total for a season for the lockout, and you get 21 goals.

What killed Semin’s season, goal-scoring-wise, was a brutal start. Remember that last season Semin had 18 goals in his first 25 games. In 2009-2010 he had 11 goals in his first 19 games. In 2008-2009 he had 14 goals in his first 18 games. See a pattern?

This season, Semin had five goals in his first 27 games. It is worth noting that all five of them came while Bruce Boudreau was still behind the bench. Semin stumbled out of the gate when Dale Hunter took over, going without a goal over his first six games under the new coach. But he did rebound to a point. His 16 goals in his last 50 games was an improvement, but a 26-goal pace over 82 games was a far cry from his production over the previous five seasons.

Looking at Semin’s underlying numbers, you scratch your head a little harder. Among Capital forwards playing at 5-on-5 and in a minimum of 20 games, Semin was third in raw Corsi value (tops among top-six forwards), fifth in on-ice save percentage, sixth in PDO (second among top-six forwards to Marcus Johansson), sixth in offensive zone starts, and he was in the lower half in quality of competition faced. These numbers juxtaposed against his production suggests he was too often a passenger at 5-on-5.

And then there is this frustrating slice of information. It will come as no surprise that Semin led the team in penalties taken per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (actually, tied with Jay Beagle). He led the team in 2010-2011. He tied for the team lead in 2009-2010. Here is how other numbers compare, this year to last:

Odd Semin Fact… Semin had three goals in four regular season games against the Rangers, none in seven games of the second round of the playoffs.

Game to Remember... December 28, 2011. The Capitals were coming off three losses in four games when they hosted the New York Rangers in late December. The Rangers, on the other hand, were on a five-game winning streak. The Caps and Rangers exchanged goals in the first period, and Troy Brouwer gave the Caps a lead in the second. Then, Semin put an end to the competitive portion of the contest. He scored just 2:38 after the Brouwer goal when Nicklas Backstrom fed him at the Ranger blue line on a breakaway to give the Caps a 3-1 lead. He iced it with 2:35 left in the game when he converted a cross-ice feed from Alex Ovechkin and wristed the puck under the crossbar for a 4-1 lead that would be the final score. It would be his only multi-goal game of the season.

Game to Forget… November 11, 2011. Coming off a pair of ugly losses (a 5-3 loss to the Islanders and a 5-2 thumping by the Dallas Stars) the Caps were hosting the Devils on Veterans Day. Alexander Semin put the Caps in a bind early, taking an offensive zone hooking penalty 10:49 into the game. The Devils would not convert on the power play, but they would score just 17 seconds after the penalty expired, Semin among the Capitals on-ice for the score. It wasn’t as if he was all that engaged in the offensive end, either. He would record no shot attempts on any of his first 11 shifts of the game. And 11 shifts was all he would get. Bruce Boudreau benched him for the final 24:19 of what would be a 3-1 comeback win for the Caps.

Post-Season… In what has become a recurring theme in Semin’s career, he had a good first round (three goals in the seven-game series against the Boston Bruins) and a poor second round (one point – an assist – against the Rangers). It looked a lot like last season’s (3-1-4 in a five-game first round, 1-1-2 in a four-game sweep in the second). Or 2009 (five goals in the first round, none in the second). In the three seasons in which he participated in two playoff rounds, Semin is 11-4-15, plus-6 in 19 first round games, 1-8-9, minus-9 in 18 second round games.

In the end… Same ol’, same ol’. Alexander Semin is one of the most gifted talents in the league. He can – and has – put up big numbers from time to time during the regular season. But he fades at inopportune times, most notably in the playoffs as the Caps advance. There are times when he laps the field in terms of his ability to dominate play with a variety of skills – stickhandling, passing, shooting. And he remains an underrated defensive player. But those sublime occurrences do not happen frequently enough or last long enough. He is a fantasy player’s dream. But he is not the force he can be or needs to be often enough when the stakes are higher on the ice.  We are left once more to imagine what he would do when he could do all he can.

Grade: C

2011-2012 By the Tens -- Forwards: Mathieu Perreault

Mathieu Perreault

Theme: “Hope is patience with the lamp lit.”
-- Tertullian

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As the 2011-2012 season approached, Mathieu Perreault was approaching a crossroads. At the age of 23 he already demonstrated a scoring touch in Canadian junior hockey – a pair of 110-point seasons. He also displayed an ability to score in the AHL with 135 points in 167 games over three seasons at Hershey.

However, in two partial seasons with the Capitals Perreault showed an ability to score when called up, but faded as his stint lengthened. As training camp approached, questions remained as to his sturdiness to withstand the physical grind of the NHL and his ability to sustain a level of production expected of a scoring forward. Put another way, he was entering that realm of being considered a fine AHL player, but not quite having what it takes to take that talent to the next level.

Perreault had a fine pre-season, going 3-2-5, and cementing a place on the opening night roster. Getting off to a good start did not hurt, either. He played in five of the first seven games of the season and was 3-2-5, plus-6. But Caps fans have seen this movie before, too. A hot start followed by a decline in production. That is just what happened. After his five-game start, Perreault was in and out of the lineup, playing in only 18 of the next 27 games and going 0-2-2, minus-7 in the process. At the end of that stretch of games he went out of the lineup with an upper-body injury and missed four games.

He returned to the lineup on January 7th, but it was a return to more of the same. Playing in five of the next eight games, he was 1-0-1, plus-1. He was not making much of an impression. He had played in only 28 games of 46 games through January 20th and was 4-4-8, even.

Sometimes, though, things change and for reasons you cannot see at the time. Change for Mathieu Perreault in this season came in a 4-3 overtime loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins on January 22nd. In that game Perreault recorded two assists – three months to the day since his last multi-point game – and was a plus-2 with two hits. From that game forward Perreault would get a sweater in each of the remaining 36 games of the regular season and would go 12-10-22, plus-9 in the process, an 82-game pace of 27-23-50, plus-21.

The summary statistic that jumps off the page when considering Perreault is his shooting percentage. He converted 16 of 60 shots taken for the season – a 26.7 percent efficiency rate that easily would have topped the league (Curtis Glencross had a 23.6 percent mark), had Perreault enough shots to qualify. But averaging less than a shot per game (60 shots on goal in 64 games played), he did not. And that is a somewhat surprising result given that Perreault’s raw Corsi value(a function of shots directed on net, for and against) at 5-on-5 is best among all Capital forwards.

Speaking of underlying numbers, that shooting percentage went a long way toward finishing the season with the fourth best PDO value at 5-on-5 among the 15 Capital forwards playing at least 20 games (the team shooting percentage portion of that value was 11.27 percent, tops in the forward group). Conversely, however, the on-ice save percentage portion of that PDO value was, well, not as good. At .909, Perreault’s value was 13th among 15 Capital forwards.

Fortunately, Perreault enjoyed the third highest share of offensive zone starts among these forwards at 5-on-5 and improved on that with an even higher share of offensive zone finishes, finishing tied with Nicklas Backstrom for second among these forwards (a +0.2 percent change over zone starts). Then again, only Mike Knuble and Cody Eakin skated against lesser competition than did Perreault, and only Jason Chimera skated with a higher quality of teammates. Perreault was the beneficiary of advantageous management. Here is how his numbers compare with last season:

Odd Perreault Fact… Mathieu Perreault has scored 27 goals on 128 shots in his brief career (and has improved his shooting percentage in each of his three seasons). It took Alex Ovechkin 202 shots for him to reach the 27-goal mark for his career.

Game to Remember… January 24, 2012. No Nicklas Backstrom. No Alex Ovechkin. The defending Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins are coming to town riding a 31-14-2 record. Hopeless, right? And it didn’t start well when Rich Peverley opened the scoring late in the first period. The Caps got even with a goal by Cody Eakin 2:14 into the second period. Then, it was The Mathieu Perreault Show. First, Perreault scored 41 seconds after Eakin’s goal to give the Caps a 2-1 lead. After Tyler Seguin tied the game once more mid-way through the period, Perreault scored 2:02 later. Brad Marchand scored for the Bruins to get the teams even a third time late in the second period, but Perreault took back the lead 7:18 into the final frame for his first hat trick and his first three-point game of his career. Dennis Wideman added an empty-net goal to complete the Caps’ 5-3 win.

Game to Forget… November 5, 2011. Things started well for the Caps on their visit to Long Island – they took a 2-0 lead on the New York Islanders into the first intermission. Unfortunately for the Caps there was a second period. The Islanders scored two goals of their own to tie the game at the second intermission. The hosts took the lead 6:28 into the third period for their third unanswered goal. The three goals were scored by three different players, and six different Islanders shared in the points. But Mathieu Perreault saw them all up close and personal from his perch on the ice. The Islanders would go on to win, 5-3.

Post-Season… It did not last long for Mathieu Perreault, who managed to play in only Games 1-4 of the opening round series against Boston, recording a total of only 42:50 in ice time. Even with that meager level of participation, he had a total of only one shot on goal. Was he injured? Pushed back on the depth chart? It was a mystery. One thing is for sure, the Caps could have used his ability to make something out of few shots on goal.

In the end… It is hard to find fault with Perreault’s success on the offensive side of the ledger this season. Getting 16 goals out of him – tied for fifth on the team – had to qualify as one of, if not the most pleasant surprise of the regular season. He even tried, at least on occasion (and with limited success) to add a physical dimension. He had 49 hits in 64 games (approximately equal to the frequency with which Marcus Johansson recorded hits). And he was not an entirely incompetent defensive player. With 31 goals scored against the Caps with Perreault on ice, the 0.48 goals against per game was better than Nicklas Backstrom, better than Jason Chimera, better than Brooks Laich, although once again, Perreault did not suffer having to play against top-flight competition. All in all, though, the patience the club had with him as he climbed through the system was rewarded, at least for this season. If provides a sense of hope for what comes next season.

Grade: A-

2011-2012 By the Tens -- Forwards: Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin

Theme: “An ounce of performance is worth pounds of promises.”
--Mae West

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When a player who averaged 56 goals per 82 games over his career “slumps” to 32 goals, you think it is just that – a slump. You are not thinking that this player’s days as an elite goal scorer are over. And you can explain the “slump” away as a product of fitness issues, the hangover from disappointing Stanley Cup and Olympic tournaments the previous season, teams figuring the player out.

Whatever the explanation for a “slump,” you expect that player – the most prolific goal scorer since the 2004-2005 lockout – to bounce back. You expect to see a level of commitment befitting his role as captain and team leader and as the highest-paid player in the history of the sport.

Things certainly looked to be moving in that direction as Training Camp 2011 opened. Alex Ovechkin looked leaner, more focused than he did at the open of camp in 2010. And things continued to look good when he had a solid October – five goals in nine games. But we saw that movie last year, too, when he opened the 2010-2011 season with a seven-goal October (11 games). And there was the 14-goals-in-13-games October he had in 2009-2010. One might be forgiven if one was thinking, “let’s see how this plays out.”

Then came November 1st. The Caps were coming home off a pair of road losses in the Canadian west after opening the season with seven straight wins. Things did not look any better for the Caps as their guests – the Anaheim Ducks – took a 3-0 lead 29 minutes into the game. But the Caps worked their way back. Joel Ward scored at 13:23, then Dennis Wideman scored at the 16:33 mark to get the Caps to within one. All this time, though, Ovechkin was silent. He did not record a shot attempt over at 29:19 period from mid-way through the first period until 20 seconds remained in the second period.

The Ducks and Caps would exchange goals mid-way through the third period, leaving the Caps a goal behind as the clock wound down. When the puck was shot into the players’ benches to stop play and the ensuing faceoff to come in the Anaheim end, you knew that the Caps would pull goalie Tomas Vokoun and get their big offensive guns on the ice for the last 62 seconds.

When the Caps took the ice for the faceoff with 1:02 left, Coach Bruce Boudreau sent out Nicklas Backstrom, Brooks Laich, Joel Ward, Jason Chimera, Dennis Wideman, and John Carlson as the six skaters to face the Anaheim defense. It made sense. Laich already had two assists, Ward a goal and an assist, Wideman a goal and an assist, Chimera an assist. But conspicuous by his absence was Ovechkin, who was not pleased, captured as he was on video saying something about “bad luck” or something that sounded like it…



The strategy worked when the Caps worked the puck off the wall and over to Nicklas Backstrom at the left wing faceoff dot for a shot that tied the game with just 42 seconds left. Ovechkin was on the ice for the game-winner in overtime and in fact had an assist on the game-winning goal by Backstrom. It was more of the incidental variety as the puck was deflected by his stick to Backstrom camped out at the far post. The whole episode seemed incidental to what happened in that last 62 seconds, the benching of Ovechkin.

Instead of talking about the win, the conversation moved to whether that benching would have repercussions down the road, whether there would be a split between coach and captain. Getting a definitive answer to that requires a knowledge only the principals can have, but what happened was that the Caps lost their bearings. After that game the Caps lost six of their next eight games (2-5-1) and looked ugly doing it, losing the last three in that streak by a combined score of 14-3. Ovechkin was 2-2-4, minus-6 in those eight games. That the Caps would win their last two games before Thanksgiving was merely a delay of the inevitable. They lost in grim fashion to the New York Rangers and the Buffalo Sabres on consecutive days just after the holiday, and Boudreau’s fate was sealed, replaced by Dale Hunter on November 28th.

The deconstruction of Alex Ovechkin as an NHL icon seemed complete. The image of the gap-toothed whirlwind of boundless joy who celebrated each goal as if it was his first, who charmed fans with his accented English in commercials and interviews, was now replaced by one of a sullen, disengaged, oft-suspended (so it seemed, at least), overpaid rock star in decline who could now add “coach killer” to his resume.

Fair? Few things are ever as simple as that. Did Ovechkin “get” Boudreau fired for his benching? We would think almost certainly not. The seeds of that firing go back to the Capitals’ implosion in the first round of the 2010 Stanley Cup playoffs when they were beaten in seven games by the heavy underdog Montreal Canadiens. Getting swept by the Tampa Bay Lightning in the second round of the 2011 playoffs fueled speculation that the coach would be relieved. He had to be on a much shorter leash as the 2011-2012 season opened. If this benching happens in, say, February of 2010, little is likely to be made of it while the Caps are fat and happy and skating to a Presidents Trophy. But after all that happened over the previous 18 months, it was just one more reason to think a change should be made. The losing that followed merely sealed it.

Ovechkin did not respond immediately to Hunter’s approach to the game. But it did not take him all that long to at least seem to get it. He was 1-3-4, minus-3 in his first seven games under the new coach. However, starting with a game-winning goal performance against Winnipeg on December 15th, Ovechkin would reel off 29 goals in his last 49 games, a 49-goal pace over 82 games. The Caps were 26-17-6 in those 49 games. He was even hotter later – 14 goals in his last 22 games following his missing a game against Ottawa to a lower-body injury. That was a 52-goal pace.

Consistency was a hallmark of Ovechkin’s early career. However, in this season he displayed an odd variant of that. In the past, his consistency would manifest itself in 10-plus point segments when looking at his “tens.” This season his “consistency,” such as it was, settled more in the 6-8 point range, the problem being more a function of low assist totals than goal-scoring. In fact, in those instances in which his point totals jumped over the ten point mark (his fourth and last segments), it was his goal-scoring that jumped (seven and nine goals, respectively).

Although his output in goals jumped back up from his 2010-2011 campaign, his drop-off in other areas was stark. There was the plus-minus that dropped from plus-24 to minus-8. It should be noted that he was a minus-9 in the second and third of his ten-game segments, a period that wrapped around the dismissal of Bruce Boudreau and the arrival of Dale Hunter. But in two measures that have defined his game saw marked drop-offs – shots (down from 367 to 303) and hits (down from 241 to 215). The shot number is especially eye-opening in one respect. Fifteen times Ovechkin recorded more than five shots on goal in a game. He had a total of eight goals on 101 shots (7.9 percent shooting). The Caps were 6-7-2 in those games. When one adds that his penalty minutes dropped by more than a third (from 41 to 26; only two penalty minutes in his three-game suspension, January 24-February 1), there appears to be a behavior shift in his game. Charitably, one could call it more mature; less charitably, less dynamic.

Ovechkin’s underlying numbers were a mixed bag. On the one hand, he had the highest share of offensive zone starts among Capital forwards (20 games minimum) at 5-on-5, but among top-six forwards he had the stiffest competition faced. He was largely middle-of-the-pack in several measures: Corsi/on-ice (10th among the 15 Capital forwards in this group), shooting percentage (sixth), PDO (seventh), and while only Alexander Semin in this forward group was on ice for more goals at 5-on-5, no forward on ice for more goals against than Ovechkin. Both of those numbers (51 goals for, 56 goals against) were dramatically worse than 2010-2011 (66 and 43), a season itself worse than 2009-2010 (87 and 34). Part of that is an evolution of the Capitals style of play, but one cannot help but think Ovechkin has more than come back to the pack as a player.

Odd Ovechkin Fact… Ovechkin was suspended for the third time in his career, a three-game suspension for an illegal check on Pittsburgh Penguin defenseman Zbynek Michalek. The suspensions might be having their effect in a cumulative, if unintended sense. Looking at the ten-games following each of his three suspensions, Ovechkin was 7-12-19 after his first time-out, 6-7-13 after his second, and 5-2-7 after his suspension this season.

Game to Remember… March 19, 2012. Usually, the problem here is an embarrassment of riches to pick from. This season it is hard to find one. But on this date in March the Caps were trying to hold off the
Winnipeg Jets and the Buffalo Sabres, each only two points behind the Caps for eighth place in the East. And the Caps’ task was made more difficult in that they were visiting the Detroit Red Wings, a motivated team that was pounded by the Caps, 7-1, in their only previous meeting of the season in October. Ovechkin was the one who got the Caps started with a patient play. Instead of jumping ahead of Marcus Johansson to cause an offside, he slammed to a stop at the Detroit line to give Johansson an entry lane. As Johansson carried the puck into the right wing circle, Ovechkin lagged back as Matieu Perreault charged to the net. When Detroit defender Justin Abdelkader followed Perreault, Ovechkin jumped into the void, took a pass from Johansson, and snapped a shot past Jimmy Howard to open the scoring. He scored again late in the first period by doing it himself. Surveying the situation from the left point, Ovechkin saw an opening between Valtteri Filppula and Henrik Zetterberg. Ovechkin walked through it and wristed the puck at the Detroit net. Howard made the initial save, but Ovechkin followed his own shot and wristed the rebound past Howard to give the Caps a 3-0 lead in what would be a 5-3 win.

Game to Forget… November 26, 2011. This one might rank among the three worst in Ovechkin’s career. After a 7-0-0 start the Caps were on a 5-8-1 skid and lost five of their previous seven games, getting outscored 28-16 over the seven games, and Ovechkin was 1-2-3. The vultures were circling above coach Bruce Boudreau’s head behind the Caps’ bench. In this game against the Buffalo Sabres, though, the Caps caught a break, despite its being played on the road – a team without nine starters, including its all-world goalie, Ryan Miller. Surely, the Caps could get well against this team. Surely, you jest. Ovechkin was on ice for four of the five Sabre goals in this contest and had only two shots on goal of his own (no points). He was a minus-4 and decidedly uncaptain-like in the 5-1 loss. It was Bruce Boudreau’s last game as head coach.

Post-Season… Well, he was consistent, but not a difference-maker. Two goals and five points in the opening round against Boston, three goals and an assist in the second round against the Rangers. He had more hits in the post-season (58) than shots on goal (50), although he did lead the Caps in shots by a wide margin (Alexander Semin, 35). It was the first post-season in his career in which he averaged less than a point a game (0.64) and the first time in which he averaged less than a goal every other game (0.36/game). He was uncharacteristically quiet in elimination games, going 1-0-1, minus-1 in the three elimination games the Caps faced. It is worth noting however that four of his goals came with the Caps tied, and the other came with the Caps down a goal.

In the end… This was an uneven year for Alex Ovechkin. It started fairly well, ended fairly well in the regular season. But the middle was one large bowl of mush, and the month of November was as worthless as a Confederate dollar. His post-season was not poor, but neither was he clearly leading the way. Instead of the front man for an ensemble, he was one of the chorus. That might have been a good thing. But in the end, it wasn’t.

Grade: C

2011-2012 By the Tens -- Forwards: Brooks Laich

Brooks Laich

Theme: “The value of identity of course is that so often with it comes purpose.”
-- Richard Grant

“We’re making the playoffs…We’re not talking worst-case scenario. We’re making the playoffs….There’s probably games in October that you wish you had or November or whatever, but over the course of 82 games your team identity is going to be revealed. And either you are or you aren’t a playoff team. There’s really no gray area.”

Fair enough. When Brooks Laich uttered those words on a local radio talk show on April 4th, the Caps were hanging onto a playoff spot by the thinnest of margins, a tie-breaker over the Buffalo Sabres, with whom they were tied in points for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

It was a rather bold pronouncement, given that the Caps were coming off a loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning and had split their last four decisions, both wins coming in the Gimmick. The Caps made good on Laich’s sort-of guarantee, though, winning their final two games to secure the seventh seed in the East. But that reference to establishing an identity over an 82-game season works for individual players as well as the team.

Before that 82-game season started for Laich and the Capitals, Laich signed a six-year contract extension worth $27 million. If he was not one of the “Young Guns” – Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, Mike Green, and Nicklas Backstrom – he was certainly now one of the players around whom the team would be built. The expectation that comes with such a commitment by the club is that the extent he could marry identity to purpose would go a long way toward determining the club’s success.

So, if an 82-game season establishes an identity, what was Laich’s?

After 82 games, it was hard to tell. First, a bit of context. From the time he joined the Capitals organization, his production was an unbroken upward climb. He had seven goals in 73 games of the 2005-2006 season, followed by seasons of eight, 21, 23, and 25 goals. Points were largely the same – 21 points followed by a hiccup of 18, but then 37, 52, and 59 points in 2009-2010. His plus-minus followed the arc of the club over that period, starting with a minus-9 in 2005-2006 and ending with a plus-16 in 2009-2010. And he became a power play producer as well, jumping from a single power play goal in 2005-2006 to 12 such markers in 2009-2010.

But in 2010-2011 all of those numbers dropped. From a 25-34-59, plus-16 mark, with an 11.3 percent shooting percentage in 2009-2010, he fell to 16-32-48, plus-14, 7.7 percent in 2010-2011. This season, with the newly minted contract, the hope was that Laich would return to something approaching those 20-plus goal, 50-plus point seasons.

It did not start that way. Other than a three-assist, plus-3 effort in a 5-4 overtime win over Anaheim on November 1st, his start to the 2011-2012 season was not a fast one. Absent that three-assist, plus-3 effort against the Ducks, Laich was 3-4-7, minus-5, over the other 15 of his first 16 games.

Curiously enough, though, Laich caught a spark just as the team was careening downward toward Thanksgiving and what would ultimately be coach Bruce Boudreau’s firing. Laich was 2-2-4, plus-1 in the four games immediately preceding Thanksgiving, but it was not nearly enough to prevent the Caps from getting pasted by Toronto (7-1) and the New York Rangers (6-3) around one-goal wins over Phoenix and Winnipeg. But Laich continued to be sharp at an individual level. In 12 games from November 17th to December 9th he was 5-5-10 to give him a 7-12-19 scoring line over 28 games. He was on a pace to be that 20-goal/50-point player (actually, 21-35-56).

But over his last 54 games Laich was 9-13-22 on his way to a 16-25-41 scoring line for the season. That was a relatively meager 14-20-34 pace over those last 54 games. As it was the goal total was unchanged from the 2010-2011 season, and the assists and points were down from the previous season. Whereas his first five full seasons with the Caps were characterized by an almost unbroken upward progression in his summary statistics, he now experienced drop-offs in each of the past two seasons.

And his underlying numbers were not very strong, either. Among the 15 Capital Forwards playing in at least 20 games, Laich had the third-worst Corsi value on-ice at 5-on-5 (numbers from behindthenet.ca).On-ice shooting percentage (7.98/10th) plus on-ice save percentage (.918/8th) made for his PDO value at 5-on-5 ranking ninth among these Capital forwards. He did, however, face the stiffest competition at 5-on-5 of any Capital forward playing in at least 20 games, while his quality of teammates ranked 12th. In a way, he was not dealt a winning hand. To this add the fact that he had the third lowest offensive zone start shares among these forwards (43.1 percent), and it made for a difficult terrain to negotiate to realize decent offensive numbers.

One other set of numbers that painted an unfortunate picture in terms of production – at 5-on-4 Laich had only the eighth best shooting percentage/on-ice among Capital forwards playing in at least 20 games and recording at least one minute of ice time per 60 minutes. For someone who needs to have the keys to the bakery as part of his power play scoring repertoire, this was not a hoped for level of efficiency.

At the other end, at 4-on-5 his on-ice save percentage was only fifth best among Caps forwards with the same inclusion criteria, and Laich led the club’s forwards in ice-time per 60 minutes at 4-on-5.

Odd Laich Fact… Brooks Laich was something of a monster against the Southeast Division: 7-9-16, plus-7, 11.5 percent shooting percentage in 24 games against the other teams of the division. However, against everyone else he was 9-16-25, minus-15, with a 6.9 percent shooting percentage in 58 games.

Game to Remember… November 1, 2001. The Anaheim Ducks waddled into Verizon Center on the first day of November and went out to a 3-0 lead before the half-way point of the game. But the Caps mounted a comeback, in no small part fueled by Brooks Laich. He had the primary assist on the Caps’ first goal, scored by Joel Ward at 13:23 of the second period. He had the primary assist when Dennis Wideman scored barely three minutes later. Then, he had an assist on the game-tying goal by Nicklas Backstrom with just 42 seconds left in regulation. He finished the night with three assists, plus-3, three shots on goal (six attempts), and two hits in being named the third star in the Caps’ 5-4 overtime win.

Game to Forget… February 22, 2012. On this night when the Capitals visited the Ottawa Senators, the Caps had barely gotten warmed up when they fell behind, 2-0, Laich being on ice for both goals against in the first period. Ottawa added a pair in the second period to push their lead to 4-0, and Laich, perhaps out of frustration or one last gasp of trying to change momentum, took on Zach Smith in a fight six seconds after the fourth Senator goal. Laich might have won the fight, but he would also be on the ice for one more goal – an empty-netter with 1:13 left – and the Caps lost, 5-2.

Post-Season… Like so many Caps, it was just not quite enough in the end. Laich had a goal in each of the two playoff rounds and finished with seven points in 14 games. His playoff goal-scoring has been spotty – four in his last 27 games. But in this post-season he did lead all Capital forwards in blocked shots (even today, before Game 3 of the Stanley Cup finals, he ranks second in this statistic among forwards), and he had only two giveaways in the 14 games in which he played.

In the end… Brooks Laich did not have a bad season, but given another drop in numbers from the previous year, it cannot be counted in the “good” column, either. He had his opportunities, getting more than two minutes of power play ice time per game (but recording only nine points compared to 13 the previous year, although with more ice time – 2:59/game). His production had the impression of being “off” almost across the board. And having his numbers drop for a second consecutive year, one wonders what Laich’s identity will be going forward. A second-line winger? A third-line center? A jack-of-all-trades who is deployed at even-strength, shorthanded, and with a man-advantage? Settling that matter will be no small issue in determining how far the Caps can yet progress on their way to a Stanley Cup.

Grade: C

This Year's Team to Copy

Kevin Paul Dupont, senior staff writer for the Boston Globe, tweeted this morning:

As all hockey fans know by now, Mike Richards (12-year/$69 million deal signed in December 2007 with the Flyers) and Jeff Carter (11-year/$58 million deal signed in November 2010 with the Flyers) were traded by the Flyers – Richards to Los Angeles in June 2011; Carter to Columbus in June 2011, then from Columbus to Los Angeles this past February. Philadelphia has Wayne Simmonds, Brayden Schenn, Jakub Voracek, Sean Couturier, Nick Cousins, and a second round draft pick in 2012. Columbus has Jack Johnson and a first round draft pick (2012 or 2013) for their trouble.

Meanwhile, the Kings are two wins away from a Stanley Cup.

One might be tempted to say that trading for players with long-term, high-value contracts should not be an impediment to teams looking to add the last piece to the puzzle, that clubs might take a look at players on long term deals whose teams are underperforming relative to the expectations that drove such large deals. It also might mean that teams might be willing to part with such players on long-term/high-value deals in return for young talent.

We think this misses the point. Whether you draft that player who will eventually get that big deal (Alex Ovechkin, Mike Richards, Jeff Carter) or trade for that player (Richards, Carter, ???), the real trick is in how a team builds around that player. Richards and Carter are especially good examples, because they are both that player drafted and that player for whom a trade was made.

The team that drafted them – the Philadelphia Flyers – built a solid team around Richards (a 24th overall pick in 2003) and Carter (a 2003 11th overall pick). The team that made the 2010 Stanley Cup finals had a productive Danny Briere, up-and-comers in Scott Hartnell and Claude Giroux, a solid veteran in Mike Knuble, and a sturdy defense with Chris Pronger, Kimmo Timonen, Matt Carle, and Braydon Coburn. But it lacked what Flyer teams always seem to lack – competent, or at least consistent goaltending. It was perhaps more than ironic that the Stanley Cup-clinching goal for the Chicago Blackhawks against the Flyers in that 2010 final should have been scored on a soft goal from deep in the corner against a journeyman goalie, Michael Leighton (who since that night has played in only three NHL games). Having a Richards and a Carter did not help the Flyers to a Cup, their trip to the finals in 2010 being their high-water mark since the lockout.

But in Los Angeles? Richards and Carter arrived separately, but to a team with many of the building blocks already in place for a Stanley Cup run. First, consider that the Kings as recently as 2008-2009 finished the regular season with a 34-37-11 record and out of the playoffs. Only six skaters having played in at least half the regular season games for that squad remain on this year’s edition of the Kings – Dustin Brown, Drew Doughty, Matt Greene, Anze Kopitar, Jarret Stoll, and Justin Williams. To that add goalie Jonathan Quick. That was the Kings’ “core.”

But consider that the Kings also would add to that core such as Rob Scuderi, Willie Mitchell, and Dustin Penner from other organizations. Or that they would see players such as Trevor Lewis and Slava Voynov develop from within to take regular turns in the lineup. That they would get unexpectedly pleasant contributions from home-grown players such as Jordan Nolan and Dwight King in this post-season.

Richards and Carter are big pieces, to be sure, but pieces only, nonetheless. Having them makes the Kings a good team – perhaps a very good one. But it is in what the Kings had built otherwise that makes them the heavy favorite to close out the New Jersey Devils and win their first Stanley Cup.

We do not think that the experience of the Kings in obtaining Richards and Carter is something other teams would be wise to emulate. Not if they think that by trading for a mega-contract they think that is the key to winning a championship. Think of the teams from which those players might come and why they are not winning with those players on their rosters. Chances are it is in what was built around those anchor players that does not measure up more than those anchor players themselves.

And as for the matter of the teams who have those players with large contracts who might be inclined to move them. Philadelphia did quite well in its return for Richards and Carter. The skaters they have should be among the best collection of any team in the Eastern Conference for some years to come. But what did Columbus get for Jeff Carter and his mega-contract? Moving that contract had its charms on the basis of salary cap relief alone, but Jack Johnson and a draft pick? Hard to think that the Blue Jackets broke even on that deal on the hockey merits, let alone improved themselves.

If a team has not shown an ability to build a solid team around a player with a large contract, how does one conclude that it will, with high probability, improve itself by moving that contract? There are 23 roster spots on a hockey team, and chances are that a winning team is going to get meaningful contributions at some point during the season from just about all of them if they are to win a championship. NHL teams might copy the Kings in how they added large contracts; others might copy the “sellers” to rid themselves of large contract in favor of volume and futures. Either way, you can probably count on a lot of disappointed fans for teams that go down those paths.

2011-2012 By the Tens -- Forwards: Mike Knuble

Mike Knuble

Theme:“Do not go gentle into that good night,
Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.”
-- Dylan Thomas

(click pic for larger image)

On the first day of last September’s training camp, the Capitals were subjected to a series of timed sprints with controlled recovery times to test players’ fitness level. For a player turned 39 years old with over a thousand regular season and playoff games in his rear-view mirror, it might have been the kind of test that left Mike Knuble lagging far behind his more youthful teammates. But it turned out that Knuble was one of a few Capitals who handled the test well.

But within a week, Knuble’s spot as the right wing on the first line – the position he held since coming to the Caps via free agency in 2009 – was in jeopardy, under challenge from another new acquisition, Troy Brouwer.

On opening night, though, there was Knuble stepping onto the ice with his regular linemates Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin 20 seconds into their game against the Carolina Hurricanes. Even when Knuble recorded two goals in his first nine games it was not a concern. In his best goal-scoring season (2005-2006, when he had 34 goals for the Philadelphia Flyers) he had three in his first eight games. Even last season, when he finished with 24 goals – his eighth straight season with more than 20 – he had but one goal in his first 14 games. Hot starts were not generally a part of his history.

But this time, after he got those two goals in his first nine games, Knuble would go his next 16 games without one. He had played himself onto a third line with Cody Eakin and Marcus Johansson in that 16th game in the streak and was averaging in the low teens in ice time. He broke the goal-less streak with a score against Florida on December 5th, but then would go his next 34 games before getting another one.

By this time – March 13th – Knuble was now becoming a healthy scratch as often as not, and when he was playing he was getting third and fourth line minutes. When the regular season came to an end, Knuble had six goals in 72 games, the fewest of any season since he had one in nine games in his first season with the Detroit Red Wings in 1996-1997. His 18 points were his lowest point total since he had 14 in 54 games with the Boston Bruins in 2001-2002.

Nowhere, perhaps, was the abrupt fall-off in production more evident than on the power play. Knuble came into the season with 62 power play goals in 451 regular season games since the lockout. He finished the season with 62 power play goals in 523 games since the lockout. His ice time on the man advantage was cut by more than half from the 2010-2011 season – from 183:48 to 82:16 in total ice time and from 2:19 to 1:08 in power play ice time per game. His failure to record a single power play goal was the first time that happened since that 2001-2002 season in Boston when he played in only 54 games.

Overall, Knuble’s underlying numbers were weak. At 5-on-5 only Cody Eakin (among Capital forwards playing in at least 20 games; number from behindthenet.ca) faced weaker competition, while Knuble’s quality of teammates was third highest among the 15 Caps forwards playing in at least 20 games. His raw Corsi value at 5-on-5 was worst among this group of Caps forwards, and his PDO value was second worst. He did not benefit from a comparatively large share of offensive zone starts (46.0 percent, 10th among these 15 forwards), especially when compared with last season (55.0 percent, third highest among Capital forwards), but this does not explain the stark dropoff in summary and underlying numbers.  Here is how his numbers fared compared to last season:

Odd Knuble Fact… Knuble had a fairly respectable goals-against/on-ice per 60 minutes (2.37, tied with Jason Chimera for seventh best among Capital forwards), but the utter inability to produce or at least be present for goals scored (1.44 goals-for/on-ice per 60 minutes) meant that Knuble had by far the worst differential of goals-for/goals-against on ice per 60 minutes (-0.93).

Game to Remember… March 19, 2012. It came in the city where it started for Mike Knuble. Heading to Detroit (the Wings drafted him in the fourth round in 1991) having recorded goals in two of his previous three games, Knuble was on what would be his only “hot” streak for the season. He made it three games in four with a goal when Mike Green started a play with a stretch pass from deep in his own end to the Detroit blue line. Mathieu Perreault corralled the puck and fed it off to Jason Chimera on his left. When defenseman Brendan Smith moved to occupy Chimera, Knuble filled the space down the middle. Chimera fed the puck across, and Knuble buried a wrist shot behind Jimmy Howard to give the Caps a 2-0 lead in the first period. Knuble would add an assist later and would be named the game’s third star in the 5-3 Capitals win in Detroit.

Game to Forget… February 7, 2012. In his previous four games, Knuble saw his ice time reduced from 19:50 to 15:07 to 13:13 to 8:31. He had only four shots on goal over those four games (no points) and was a minus-5. On this night against the Florida Panthers – a night that would see Alex Ovechkin net a pair of goals, with Jason Chimera and Mathieu Perreault chipping in one apiece in a 4-0 win – Knuble would not record so much as a shot attempt, and only his two hits served as marks on his score sheet line in 10:07 of ice time. He would be scratched for the first time in the 2011-2012 season in his next game and would be scratched in nine of his next 14 games overall.

Post-Season… Knuble sat for the first three games of the Boston series, but with the Bruins taking a 2-1 lead in games and the Caps in need of some more bulk in the lineup to offset the Bruins’s physical edge, Knuble returned to the lineup for Game 4. He would get a goal in Game 5 in Boston and record one of the most important assists in Capitals’ history when he stormed in on Tim Thomas in overtime in Game 7 and shot the puck on the Boston netminder, the rebound popping out to Joel Ward for the series-clinching goal. Against the Rangers, things would not work out quite as well. He did have a goal in Game 2 in a 3-2 Caps win, but was otherwise held without a point for the series. One thing to note, though, is that while Knuble finished the regular season tied for a team-worst minus-15, he did not have so much as a single game as a minus player in the post season. He was on ice for only one goal scored against in 11 games and 100:25 of ice time.

In the end… it was not the way one would have wanted the season to go for Knuble, one of the classiest men ever to wear a Capitals sweater. It was especially difficult to watch in that it is very likely his last season in Washington. At age 40 when next season starts (assuming for the moment there is a “next season” this fall), the Caps need to get younger and faster to compete with the top teams in the Eastern Conference. Players such as Mathieu Perreault will be competing for more ice time, and those such as Cody Eakin will be angling for a permanent roster spot. But through all the ups and downs this season, Knuble was a professional. He clearly chafed at his diminished role at times, but when one has played at the pinnacle of his sport for a thousand games, it is hardly surprising. Knuble might not go gentle into that good night of his career, but he will do so proudly, in a manner that serves as an example to younger players, and that does credit to him and his career.

Grade: C+

(photo: Elsa/Getty Images North America)

2011-2012 By the Tens -- Forwards: Marcus Johansson

Marcus Johansson

Theme: “The spectacles of experience; through them you will see clearly a second time.”
-- Henrik Ibsen

(click pic for larger image)

Marcus Johansson had by any measure a respectable rookie season for the Washington Capitals in 2010-2011. Among rookie forwards he was…

-- 12th in goals scored
-- Tied for 15th in assists
-- Tied for 12th in points
-- Tied for 11th in power play goals
-- One of only six forwards with at least one shorthanded goal
-- Tied for eighth in game-winning goals
-- tied for fifth in shooting percentage
-- Sixth in takeaways

One might have expected a step up in 2011-2012. In fact, he was up in games played (from 69 to 80), goals (from 13 to 14), assists (14 to 32), points (27 to 46), power play points (three to eight), hits (47 to 61), faceoffs (40.5 percent to 43.2 percent).

Why then did this past season feel like a step back?

Part of it was this – Johansson was on ice for 40 goals against in 69 games in 2010-2011, but he was on ice for 62 goals against this past season. When you consider that the quality of competition he faced was not appreciably better than that which he faced in 2010-2011 (ranked sixth on the club this season, seventh last; numbers from behindthenet.ca), that is quite a deterioration in effectiveness in the defensive end of the ice.

What is more, Johansson faded as the season wore on. Looking at his tens, his scoring was reasonably consistent, generally between six and eight points in his ten-game segments, including 12 points in his first 20 games, 15 in his last 22 contests. But his plus-minus fell through the floor in his last three segments (minus-8 in 32 games). Consider than he had more than a third of his season total of goals in his first ten-game segment (five out of 14), playing almost exclusively as a top-six forward, and his season does not look very impressive over the 80 games in which he played.

Part of the problem, as it were, might have been his readiness to assume more responsibility. When Nicklas Backstrom went out with an injury and missed 40 games, Johansson’s ice time ramped up. Johansson played in 39 of those 40 games and averaged a bit over 18 minutes. However, his production did not improve. He was 7-15-22, minus-4 in those 39 games, while he was 7-17-24, minus-1 in his other 41 games in which he averaged just under 16 minutes a game.

It was especially disappointing given the special teams responsibility he was given. Only Alex Ovechkin and Alexander Semin among Capital forwards logged more power play ice time for the season than Johansson, and his average power play ice time ranked fourth among forwards. With the added responsibility over 39 games in Backstrom’s absence he did not record a power play goal (his only power play goal of the season came in Game 4 against Florida).

Among all NHL forwards playing in more than half of their team’s games, only ten had fewer penalty minutes than Johansson (eight). He had the eighth fewest penalty minutes per 60 minutes among that group of forwards. He was charged with only one minor penalty in his last 66 games of the season.

Then there were faceoffs. Only 23 times in 80 games did Johansson finish with a better-than-50 percent winning percentage on draws. Even though he improved in this statistic over his rookie season (from 40.5 to 43.2 percent), he finished 88th of 89 qualifiers in faceoff winning percentage.  Here is how his numbers compare from last year to this year:

Odd Johansson Fact… Johansson had three game-winning goals in the first six games in which he played this season. He had none over his last 74 games.

Game to Remember… October 20, 2011. Marcus Johansson spent opening night in an unexpected place – the press box as a healthy scratch. He made his season debut in Game 2 against the Tampa Bay Lightning and made up for lost time. After the Lightning opened the scoring just 2:22 into the contest, Johansson got the Caps even on a play that started with Karl Alzner collecting a loose puck in the neutral zone and feeding Johansson as he was coming out of the Tampa Bay end. Johansson circled back and skated back into the Lightning end where he wristed a shot from the top of the left-wing circle. The shot went wide and caromed back where goalie Dwayne Roloson tried to cover it with his glove. He was slow to do so, though, and Johansson poked it free. With Roloson now on his knees and out of the play, Johansson took the puck, circled the net and tucked the puck in to knot things at one goal apiece. He would add an assist on a goal by Troy Brouwer and finish the night with nine shot attempts (four on goal), two hits, and a takeaway in earning the game’s second star in the 6-5 Gimmick win.

Game to Forget… March 23, 2012. The Caps had lost three of four games going into their contest with the Winnipeg Jets at Verizon Center and were just one point ahead of the Buffalo Sabres for eighth-place and the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Things looked good for the Caps early on as they raced out to a 3-0 lead not 26 minutes into the contest. But the Jets came back with a goal at 7:01 of the second period and another 71 seconds later – Johansson being on ice for both scores. The Jets tied the game with 3:45 left in regulation then won it 2:37 into overtime on a goal by Tim Stapleton, again with Johansson on ice. The last goal was especially frustrating to watch as Dustin Byfuglien first manhandled Johansson to get to a loose puck, then slid the puck through Johansson’s legs to Stapleton for the game-winning shot. Johansson was on ice for three goals against, had no shot attempts in 12:37 of ice time, including 1:58 of power play ice time.

Post Season… For Johansson the post-season was a little like his regular season. He was 1-2-3 in his first five games, then did not record a point in any of his last nine contests. His shooting all but dried up in the second round, recording only seven shots on goal in seven games after putting 15 on net in the opening round against Boston. He finished with the same number of points (three) as Mike Knuble despite getting more than twice as much ice time (19:35 per game to 9:07). His 4.5 percent shooting percentage tied Matt Hendricks for second lowest among Capital forwards playing in at least ten post-season games. At the other end, the 13 goals against for which he was on ice was the most of any Capital forward.

In the end… if the term “sophomore jinx” applies to anyone, it applies to Marcus Johansson. Actually, it was not so much a “jinx” as his just not playing very well for long stretches of the season, particularly late. His scoring was up over his rookie season, but in every other aspect of the game worth noting his performance dropped off. Perhaps most curiously, the defensive responsibility he displayed as a rookie disappeared often this season. He looked lost and/or physically overwhelmed often.

With Nicklas Backstrom missing almost half the season to injury, Johansson had an opportunity to step up into his countryman’s place and show that he could shoulder top-line centerman minutes. That might have been a bit too big a step for Johansson to take. But he had the opportunity to take the second-line center position for his own, and based on his rookie season numbers it was not a reach to think he could do this. But his performance was disappointing in aspects other than his scoring. The silver lining is that it is the sort of experience from which he can perhaps see clearly what it is he will need to work on to grab that second-line center position more firmly next season.

Grade: C-

(Photo: Jim McIsaac/Getty Images North America)

2011-2012 By the Tens -- Forwards: Matt Hendricks

Matt Hendricks

Theme: “I do one thing at a time, I do it very well, and then I move on.”
-- Maj. Charles Emerson Winchester, III, MD, 4077th Mobile Army Surgical Hospital

(click pic for larger image)

You have reached the pinnacle of your profession when your signature talent has attached to it a nickname. In baseball, the fastball of hall of fame pitcher Nolan Ryan was branded, “The Ryan Express.” In basketball, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar took the hook shot and made his own “sky hook.” A lot of soccer players can make a ball do tricks, but David Beckham is the rare player who could have his talent memorialized in a movie titled “Bend It Like Beckham.”

Which brings us to Matt Hendricks. By day, according to the Capitals media guide, Hendricks enjoys golfing and fishing. His favorite athlete is Phil Mickelson. His first car was a 1978 Dodge pickup truck, and his first job was working on a sod farm. A down-to-earth, plain-living, hard-working sort of guy. But by night…



He is…”The Paralyzer.”

Matt Hendricks did not lead the league in trick shot goals (he was tied for 15th with five goals). He had only one game-deciding goal. But among players taking at least five tries as solving a goalie in the trick shot competition, no one converted a greater share of his attempts than did Hendricks. In six tries, he scored five goals, all of them accompanied by “The Paralyzer”… the kick of the right leg as he reaches the circles. That kick, perhaps just for a moment, froze goalies who then seemed to lose track of the moves that came next – and often there were many. It made for a discombobulating cacophony of contortions that five times in six had the desired effect.

But there were 65 minutes of hockey that preceded those outcomes, and much more often 60 minutes. In those mundane instances Hendricks was more the guy driving his pick up to work on a sod farm. That is the life of the fourth-liner in the NHL, a guy who provides energy, a physical edge, and the occasional goal. It is unglamorous, but it is essential to the health and success of a hockey team. The well-timed hit, the standing up for his team or a teammate, the unexpected lightning of the lamp. All of it can provide the lift a team needs to win on any given night.

How did Hendricks do in this regard? Well-timed hit? He had 219 hits in all, so volume was not a problem. That total was tied for 18th in the league (with rookie Gabriel Landeskog, if you can believe that). And the frequency was impressive. Here is a comparison. Alex Ovechkin – no shrinking violet himself – recorded 215 hits. Hendricks recorded his 219 hits in 599 fewer minutes of ice time. Put another way, Hendricks recorded one hit for every 4:19 of ice time. Ovechkin, one hit for every 7:11 of ice time.

Standing up for his team or a teammate? He had 11 fights in the regular season. The hockeyfights.com Web site had him at 5-3-3 in those decisions, but more important, the Caps were 4-7-0 in games in which Hendricks took a fighting major – that “standing up” thing goes just so far. He led the team fighting majors, and by a wide margin (Troy Brouwer had five) on a team that did not engage much in the practice. Only four teams had fewer fights than did the Caps (26).

How about the unexpected lighting of the lamp? This is where Hendricks season took a turn into a dimly lit, if not dark alley. When he was signed by the Caps for the 2010-2011 season, he was coming off a nine-goal year in Colorado in which he converted those nine goals on just 63 shots – a 14.3 percent shooting percentage. In his first year with the Caps he matched that nine-goal total and did so on 113 shots (8.0 percent).

In 2011-2012, however, Hendricks saw his goal total cut by more than half – to four in 78 games – and his shooting percentage drop to 4.1 percent, worst among all Capital forwards save for D.J. King and Joel Rechlicz, who combined for a total of one shot on goal (by King, without success) in four games. And keep in mind, Hendricks might have been a “fourth liner,” but he did not necessarily shoot like one, at least in terms of volume. His 97 shots on goal were sixth among forwards, more than Mike Knuble, more than Marcus Johansson, more than Joel Ward, and more than Mathieu Perreault (who played in only 64 games but had 16 goals, too). Here is how his numbers compare to last year’s:

Odd Hendricks Fact… All four of Hendricks’ goals for the season came on the road, three of them coming against Northeast Division teams (Buffalo, Montreal, Boston).

Game to Remember… Oh, please. You have to ask?...



Game to Forget… December 17, 2011. The Caps were trying to establish some momentum in their visit to Colorado to meet the Avalanche after winning a 1-0 decision in Winnipeg two nights earlier. They were 9-13-1 after a 7-0-0 start and had managed consecutive wins in regulation only once since that hot start. In this one, Colorado scored first on a goal by Cody McLeod just 2:49 into the game. Later in the period Hendricks tried, as he said, “to get some momentum for the team.”

He did that by picking a fight with friend and former teammate McLeod as the Caps were about to be whistled for a penalty to Mathieu Perreault. It did not go well. McLeod landed a dozen or so right hands. Hendricks couldn’t get free to throw, let alone land a punch, and McLeod had his decision. The momentum Hendricks was trying to grab for the Caps eluded him and the team, and Hendricks finished the night with a season low 3:49 in ice time in the Caps’ 2-1 loss in Denver.

Post Season… Hendricks had a respectable post season. He hit (61, tops on the team in 14 games), he blocked shots (sixth among forwards, fifth in blocked shots per minute of ice time); he was responsible with the puck (two giveaways, second fewest among Cap forwards playing in at least ten games). He won 56 percent of the 116 draws he took. He was one of four forwards averaging more than two minutes a game in penalty killing. He took 23 more shifts in the post-season than did Alexander Semin, 55 more than Jason Chimera. He was all over the place…just not the score sheet. One goal on 22 shots…a 4.5 percent shooting percentage. It just was not his year scoring-wise, even for a guy whose scoring expectations are modest.

In the end… Matt Hendricks is a guy you root for. His engine runs at high RPMs just about every shift, and that he will try to do anything to give a lift to his team shines through on just about every shift. Teams win with guys like this. But you cannot say this was a good year for him or a step forward in his career arc. He was down in just about every performance number (goals, assists, points, plus-minus, shooting percentage) despite getting a bit more ice time this season (12:07 per game compared to 11:27 a game in 2010-2011). The Caps do not need a lot of production out of its fourth line, but getting more out of it was one of the hoped-for outcomes this season. It is not an afterthought (look at what it has produced for the finalists in this year’s playoffs). And it is in that light that one might have been thrilled by Hendricks’ curious success in the Gimmick, but one should not be paralyzed by it.

Grade: B-