The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 29: Predators at Capitals, December 7th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s been awhile – four days – but the Washington Capitals head back to the ice, hosting the Nashiville Predators at Verizon Center on Saturday night.  It is fitting that the Predators come to town just as a wintry mix descends on the Capital region.  Nashville has lost four games in a row and has only five goals in those four games.  They are, as you might say, cold.

This is not a team that the Capitals have a lot of history against.  Only 17 times in 14 seasons have these clubs met coming into this season.  Washington leads the all-time series with a 10-6-1 record.  The last time these teams met was back on December 20, 2011, a 4-1 Capitals win at Verizon Center.  Just to show how rosters can change, eight of the 18 skaters on that night for the Caps are no longer with the club (Dennis Wideman, Jeff Halpern, Mike Knuble, Matt Hendricks, Alexander Semin, Roman Hamrlik, Jeff Schultz, and Mathieu Perreault, if you are keeping score at home).  The backup goaltender on that night – Tomas Vokoun – is tending goal (or not, he being injured at the moment) in Pittsburgh these days.

As for the current edition of the Predators, as we noted, they come into this game losers of their last four games.  The Preds have had trouble finding the back of the net.  Not that they are a potent offense normally – tied for 25^th in scoring offense in the league – but over their four straight losses they have a total of five goals.  Colin Wilson has a pair, Mike Fisher has a pair, and Viktor Stalberg has the other one. 

A preview of a game against the Predators would normally include some mention of how goalie Pekka Rinne might influence the results.  He will not be doing any such thing in this game.  Rinne had arthroscopic surgery on his hip last spring and in October developed a bacterial infection in that same hip than has kept him on the shelf since.  That has meant something of a revolving door to the Nashville crease. 

Carter Hutton was the contestant early on to replace the incapacitated Rinne, but after going 4-1-1 in his first seven appearances (including one no-decision), he allowed eight goals on 31 shots in 80 minutes over two appearances (both losses), and has been relegated to backup and relief duty.  Enter Marek Mazanec, a sixth round draft pick in 2012 from Czech Republic.  He was the goalie of record in each game of the 0-3-1 streak Nashville is on, but he can hardly be faulted for that result.  Overall he has a 2.99 goals against average and a .887 save percentage, but that is influenced by a difficult go of it in his last appearance – four goals on just 13 shots in 40 minutes of a 5-2 loss to Carolina on Thursday.

Here is how the clubs compare overall…

1.  In none of those four straight losses the Predators are carrying into this game did they score the game’s first goal.  That’s too bad for Nashville, and it is something that bears watching in this game.  The Preds are 11-1-2 in games in which they score first, 2-12-1 when they don’t.

2.  Nashville has had uniform difficulty outscoring teams on a period-by period basis in their four-game skid.  In none of the 12 periods of hockey or their one overtime did they outscore their opponent, and they were outscored by a 2-1 total in first periods, 6-3 in second periods, and by 5-1 in the third periods of games.

3.  Special teams have been a mixed bag for the Predators lately.  The power play has gone into a ditch.  Nashville is 0-for-13 over their 0-3-1 skid and just 1-for-18 over their last seven games.  The penalty kill has fared a bit better, killing off 13 of 15 shorthanded situations (86.7 percent) during the losing streak, although they have allowed power play goals in each of their last two contests.  They are 27-for-29 over their last ten games (93.1 percent).

4.  Shea Weber and Mike Fisher are tied for the team lead in goals with seven apiece.  There are 85 players in the league with more. 

5.  Caps fans will not get to see erstwhile first-round draft pick Filip Forsberg for the Predators.  He has an upper body injury.  Shea Weber might play for the Predators after missing a week after taking a puck to the eye against Edmonton on Thanksgiving.

1.  Washington has not lost to Nashville at home since December 7, 2005, a 5-2 loss during those dark days after the 2004-2005 lockout.  They have three wins against the Predators since – a 4-3 Gimmick win on October 28, 2008; a 3-2 Gimmick win on October 17, 2009; and the 4-1 win on December 20, 2011, that we alluded to above.

2.  Only Toronto stands between Washington and the top spot (or bottom, depending on your point of view) in shots allowed per game.  The Caps are allowing 35.0 per game to 36.6 for the Maple Leafs.

3.  Mike Green is the only Capital with a Fenwick-for relative percentage (difference between “for” and “against”) in 5-on-5 close situations greater than +10 percent.  He happens to be second in the league among defensemen in that particular fancy stat (Anton Stralman of the Rangers is at +13.8 percent).

4.  Ah, but forwards?  Only Joel Ward ranks in the top-50 in that same Fenwick-for relative percentage in 5-on-5 close situations.  He ranks 45^th with a +5.2 percent.   If you are a glutton for punishment, Brooks Laich and Troy Brouwer rank 268^th and 272^nd among 284 ranked forwards in that statistic.

5.  All seven Capitals participating in the Gimmick thus far this season have at least one goal.  They are the only team that can say that.  They might not want to say it too loudly, though.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Nashville: Matt Hendricks

Matt Hendricks had a devoted following in Washington.  He was the kind of guy you root for… free agent signing, has a skill set that won’t make him a star, but he does whatever he can to stand up for his teammates and help them win.  And how can you root against a guy who displays this kind of support?  Hendricks left the Caps for Nashville in the off-season, and the change has not been kind to his game.  In 25 contests to date Hendircks has but one goal and one point on his scoring ledger, that coming on Hallowe’en against Phoenix.  He has been getting decent doses of ice time, despite the lack of offensive production; he has logged less than ten minutes of ice time only three times in those 25 games.  Oddly enough, one of those was his goal-scoring night.  After he scored his goal he left the game to an upper body injury after only 5:32 of ice time.  The cruelty of that was that he was not around for the shootout – his specialty – and the Preds dropped a 5-4 decision to the Coyotes.  He has only one career appearance against the Caps with no points recorded.

Washington:  Troy Brouwer, Brooks Laich, Alex Ovechkin

Yesterday, in what seemed like a bit of flash-mob analysis (and we mean that in the best possible way), we were shown just how meager the production of certain players has been this season at even-strength.  “The Brouwery Boys” have a combined assist total that is less than that of Paul Bissonette (4), who has played in only 17 games.  It is less than that of Boyd Gordon (remember him?).  It is less than former Capital draft pick Tim Kennedy (traded for a pick that became Mathieu Perreault, who was later traded for John Mitchell… no, not that John Mitchell, who happens to have more than twice as many even strength assists as these three…this John Mitchell).  Needless to say, something has to give here.  It’s not that they’re not trying hard.  But 28 games in?  Three even strength assists?  Good heavens.

Keys:

1.  Five-by-five and five-on-five.  Look, this is really what it comes down to.  If the Caps can’t get well at evens against this team – the third worst ratio of goals for to goals against at 5-on-5 in the league – then this team has serious problems. 

2.  Volume.  Assuming Marek Mazanec gets the start (he started the Preds’ last dozen games), dealing with high shot volumes has not been in his history.  Only five times has he faced more than 30 shots, and he is 2-3-0 in those games.

3.  Close fast.  The biggest problem the Predators have had in their mini-skid is letting things get away from them in the third periods of games.  They have allowed goals in the final frame in each of the four games and have been outscored, 5-1.  The Caps have not been an especially prolific team in the third period, tied for 22^nd in third period goals scored.

In the end, it’s another Western Conference team, and the Caps have struggled with such teams that do not call Alberta “home” (3-5-1).  It is not the best way to turn around from their recent 2-4-1 slide (1-4-0 at home), and as a matter of style it is not the easiest team to do it against.  What it is, is an opportunity to get back to fundamentals, because a Barry Trotz-coached team is going to do just that.  If the Caps don’t match them, the Predators will diligently, persistently, and mechanically make the Caps’ night uncomfortable.  Do the right things the right way, and the Caps have too much skill for this team.

Capitals 3 – Predators 2

Washington Capitals: A NO point night -- Game 28: Hurricanes 4 - Capitals 1

By the time the Washington Capitals scored it had an almost mocking quality to it.  Mike Green scored his first goal of the season in the third period, but by that time the Carolina Hurricanes had a 4-0 lead, and the Hurricanes won going away, 4-1, to end the Caps’ modest two game winning streak.

It was the Jeff Skinner show for the visitors to Verizon Center.  Skinner potted a goal mid-way through the first period to give the Hurricanes the lead, then added a goal mid-way through the second period.  On his next shift he added an assist on a power play goal by Andrej Sekera in the 15th minute of the period to give the Hurricanes a 3-0 lead.  Jiri Tlusty added a goal less than a minute after the Sekera goal to end the Carolina scoring binge in the second period and the competitive portion of the evening.

Green spoiled Justin Peters’ shutout at 6:39 of the third period when he wristed a shot through a screen and past Peters’ glove, snapping a 24-game streak without a goal, but not nearly enough to make a game of it for the Capitals.

Other stuff…

-- An equal opportunity provider, each Capitals defenseman was on ice for at least one Carolina goal.  John Carlson and Nate Schmidt were on for two apiece.

-- When Carolina scored in the first period it marked the 16^th time that the Caps allowed the first goal.  Eight teams have allowed the first goal more often; none of them would qualify for the playoffs if they started today.

-- Two years ago, Jason Chimera hit the 20-goal mark for the first time in his career.  With his assist on Mike Green’s goal last night he is on a pace to set a career high for assists.  Last night’s helper was his 12^th (tied for fourth on the club).  He is on a pace for 35.  His career high to date is 21 with Columbus in 2006-2007.

-- Some years ago there was a player who was once a pretty decent scorer, but by the end of his career had become pretty much a one-note wonder – Yanic Perreault, who three times in his career topped 50 points, but was largely a faceoff specialist by the end of his career.  Injuries have done to Manny Malhotra what time did to Pereault, but Malhotra is very good at his craft.  He did not attempt a shot last night, but he was 9-for-14 in defensive zone draws.

-- Last night was the seventh time this season the Caps had five or more power plays.  They are now 3-3-1 in those games.

-- It was also the 13^th time the Caps allowed four or more power plays; they are 6-6-1 in those games.

-- Last night was the third time Braden Holtby was pulled from a game this season, the first time in a game in which Calgary was not the opponent.  Let’s hope he confines this to teams from cities with names starting with “C” in the alphabet.

-- It was Philipp Grubauer’s third NHL appearance.  In two relief stints, including last night, he as a combined 23 saves on 23 shots in 45 minutes of ice time.

-- Justin Peters is now 4-3-0, 1.67, .938, with two shutouts against the Caps in his career.  Against everyone else he is 16-26-5, 3.29, .899, with one shutout.  Does the term "Cap Killer" come to mind?

In the end, the Caps lost a game they should have won…on paper.  But “paper” was almost the resistance threshold for Braden Holtby in his 40 minutes of work.  The first two goals allowed are goals that should not be allowed, not to that team.  Jeff Skinner is a nice little player, but he isn’t Pavel Bure. 

This is part of what is a disturbing emerging trend with Holtby.  Lately, he is either very good (four times in his last seven appearances allowing two or fewer goals), or he is not (three times in those seven appearances allowing four or more goals).  The Caps have issues with possession, although last night was not one of their usual struggles in that regard.  They do not need issues in goal on top of that.  It would make for a combustible mix that would result in fireworks in the Capitals’ end of the ice.  Fortunately, they have four days to work these things out.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 28: Hurricanes at Capitals, December 3rd

The Peerless Prognosti –urp- cator is ON THE –belch- AIR!!!

Turkey Day has come and gone, sort of like the Redskins’ playoff hopes.  Lost in a maze of odd recipes and warmed over leftovers.  And frankly, we’re sort of glad it’s over.  You don’t want to spend a Thanksgiving with your idiot cousin who wants to make his contribution to the… oh, hey Cheerless.

“Whut…you didn’t like the turkey dinner layer cake?...”

It was interesting, to say the least, and the oyster stuffing ice cream really topped it off.

“My own special recipe.  And whut about the beverage selection?  I coulda gone with some frou-frou white wine, but you have to chill it, and you have to have a corkscrew, and it doesn’t keep.”

Yeah, but turkey gravy soda?

“It’s part of the spirit of the season, cuz… But hey, didn’t you like the dessert?  My own specialty – sweet potato pie.”

It might have helped if you peeled the sweet potatoes…

“Hey…fiber.”

And cooked them!

Everyone’s Thanksgiving is different, and no doubt you have your stories to tell, but it is time to get back to hockey, and that means a Metropoutheast Division Matchup with the Carolina Hurricanes on Tuesday night on F Street.

For the Hurricanes it has been a little bit like watching Sisyphus rolling that boulder up the hill only to see it roll back down, leaving him to try once more to get the rock to the top of the hill.  The Hurricanes started the year with a 2-1-1 record, beating the Caps by a 3-2 score to get them over .500.  Then the Hurricanes lost three in a row to set them on a course to finish the month of October with six losses in their last eight games of the month.

November started with a pair of losses to give them a five-game losing streak.  But then, they won four of five and earned points in each game (4-0-1).  That was followed up with a four-game losing streak.  Carolina broke that skid with a pair of wins in succession, but they come to Verizon Center having lost two in a row. 

The problem is not necessarily defense.  They have had significant health issues in goal.  Cam Ward missed ten games to a lower-body injury.  Backup goalie Anton Khudobin, who beat the Caps in October, has not played since October 13^th, he too having suffered a lower-body injury.  Justin Peters filled in admirably and in 12 appearances so far has a 2.49 goals against average (one spot ahead of Henrik Lundqvist in the goalie rankings) and a .920 save percentage (one spot ahead of Ryan Miller and Marc-Andre Fleury).

The problem, such as it is, for the Hurricanes is an inability to score consistently.  Carolina has been held to two goals or fewer in 19 of 27 games so far.  In those 19 games they have a 4-10-5 record, 4-1-5 in one-goal decisions.

Here is how the teams compare in their overall numbers through Sunday’s games:

1.  How bad is the Carolina offense?  Nathan Gerbe is tied for the team lead with six goals.  He had three of them in the team’s first four games of the season.  He has three in his last 23 games.  On the good side, one supposes, he has already surpassed his goal total for last season in Buffalo – five goals in 42 games.

2.  How bad is the Carolina offense, part deux… In their last 18 games the Hurricanes have been held to two or fewer goals 14 times.  They are 3-9-2 in those games.

3.  You could say that the Hurricane offensive woes are a product of Alexander Semin being out of the lineup with a concussion.  You could say that… but it would not necessarily make it true.  Semin was held without a goal in his last ten games leading up to his injury and had four points total.  Carolina is 2-4-1 with Semin out of the lineup the last seven games.

4.  If Carolina is going to have a chance, they are going to have to be stingy on the penalty kill.  At least that has been the case so far.  The Hurricanes are 6-2-4 in games in which they deny their opponents a power play goal, 4-10-1 when they are less than perfect killing penalties.  They have allowed a power play goal in eight of their last ten games, going 22-for-30 (73.3 percent) overall.  They are 2-5-1 in those eight games in which they allowed a power play goal.

5.  When Carolina is good in possession – really good – they win.  When they are bad – really bad – they lose.  Three times this season the Hurricanes finished with a Fenwick-for percentage in 5-on-5 close situations of 60 percent or better.  They won all three games.  Eight times (eight times??) they were under 40 percent in those situations.  They are 0-6-2 in those games.

1.  Speaking of possession, the Caps had that 0.0 percent Fenwick-for in 5-on-5 close situations against Pittsburgh back on November 20^th.  Was it a wake-up call?  Have the Caps turned their possession numbers around?  No.  In five games since the Caps are under 50 percent in three of them, barely 50 percent in another (50.7 percent in the 3-2 overtime win over the Islanders) and 60 percent against the Maple Leafs on November 23^rd – a game the Caps lost in a Gimmick.

2.  Only four teams in the league have more takeaways at home than do the Caps (137).  Then again, 25 teams have more takeaways credited to them at home than they do on the road.

3.  Only St. Louis (15.4), Toronto (15.9), and Philadelphia (16.8) have more penalty minutes per game than do the Caps (13.9).

4.  Tom Wilson – a forward – has no shots on goal in his last six games.  Among the six Caps defensemen having played in ten or more games, the longest consecutive games streak without a shot on goal belongs to Steve Oleksy and Alexander Urbom, each of whom have had a three-game streak without a shot on goal.

5.  In 5-on-5 close situations, only five teams have a worse Fenwick-for rate than do the Caps.  Those five teams – Carolina, Columbus, Edmonton, Toronto, and Buffalo – have a combined record of 49-73-15.  The question is not why the Caps are just 14-11-2 a third of the way into the season, but how it is they have that good a record given their possession numbers at 5-on-5.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina:  Eric Staal

Eric Staal has points in eight of his last nine games (3-7-10).  But, he is a minus-2 over that stretch, too.  Of 22 even strength goals scored by opponents over those last nine games, Staal was on ice for nine of them.  Only four forwards in the league have been on ice for more goals against, only seven have been on ice for more 5-on-5 goals against.  This is the fourth straight season in which Staal the Elder has found himself in the top-ten among forwards in goals scored against/on ice.  He might have done it in 2009-2010, but he played in only 70 games.  Had he played in all 82, at his pace he would have finished in the top-ten that year as well.  Does he get tough assignments?  Well, he gets favorable zone starts (58.2 percent at 5-on-5).  Is his quality of competition especially stiff?  Not compared to his forward teammates.  Things happen when Eric Staal is on the ice, good and bad.  Pay attention.

Washington: Mike Green

Of the six Capitals defensemen having played in ten or more games, only one is a “minus” player – Mike Green (minus-7).  And here is where “plus-minus” needs to be taken with not just a grain of salt but the whole salt lick… Green has the best 5-on-5 possession numbers on the team.  Not best among defensemen… best, period.  At 5-on-5 Green has the best Fenwick-for percentage (52.2 percent), and he has the best Corsi-for percentage (53.5 percent).  The problem is his own.  Among the six defensemen having played in at least ten games, the club’s shooting percentage with Green on ice at 5-on-5 is second worst on the club (7.7 percent; Alexander Urbom is at 7.3 percent).  Seeing how he has no goals in 37 shots at 5-on-5… well, there you go.

Keys: 

1.  Flurries in the forecast.  Carolina has ten wins.  In four of them they had a three-goal period.  Three times that three-goal period occurred in the middle frame.  That second period has been big in Hurricane wins.  They outscored their opponents by a 14-8 margin in the middle 20 minutes of their wins.

2.  Workin’ Ward.  Cam Ward has faced 30 or more shots on goal eight times this season.  He is 1-3-4 in those games.  Not that it is all his fault – he has a 2.80 GAA and a .919 save percentage in those games.  But if he is going to face a lot of rubber, Carolina does not have the firepower to help him at the other end.

3.  Score first.  One of the most reliable indicators of winning in the NHL is looking at who scores first in games – teams scoring first through Sunday’s games had a record of 292-60-52.  But Carolina is one of only three teams in the league not to have lost a game in regulation when scoring first.  Colorado and Chicago are the others.  Granted, Carolina has scored first in only seven of 27 games so far, but still, pretty good company that.

In the end…

Carolina is not Buffalo-Florida bad, but with just 25 points in 27 games they are not good, either.  Having said that, take them for granted at your peril.  They own a win in the only meeting of the teams to date this season, and the Hurricanes still have more wins in regulation and overtime (nine) than do the Caps (eight).

By the time this game is over the Caps could be just five points behind Pittsburgh for the division lead with a game in hand, or they could fall to third place, just one point ahead of New Jersey, two ahead of Philadelphia, and three ahead of these Hurricanes.  That is how tight things are for now in the Metropolitan Division, and it is what makes earning points the Caps should earn of paramount importance.

Capitals 4 – Hurricanes 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 9

The families have gone home, the turkey carcass has been picked clean.  The stuffing, the potatoes, the green bean casserole, the pumpkin pie but a memory.  As for the Washington Capitals this Turkey Week, weeks from now folks will look back on Week 9 and think, “hmm…pretty good.”  That’s why they say, “it’s not how, it’s how many” when it comes to wins and losses.  Because, even though it was a winning week, it smelled like week-old leftovers.

Record: 2-1-0

By the end of Week 9 the Caps were back to winning weeks, this one being their sixth in their last seven after opening the season with two losing weeks.  It would have been much better if the Caps remembered in their first game of the week that a hockey game is played for 60 minutes.  Washington took a 3-1 lead over the Ottawa Senators 15 minutes into their game last Wednesday and held it into the 27^th minute of the contest.  Over the following 20 minutes, though, the Senators would score three times to take a lead.  They would survive a tying goal by John Carlson, then win going away with a pair of goals in the last three minutes, 6-4. 

The Caps looked hardly better in their two wins, both in extra time, giving the Caps the most extra-time wins in the league (eight) and, with their trick shot win on Friday, the league lead in Gimmick wins (six).  What that meant was that while the two wins were welcome, the Caps finished the week ahead of only three teams in the Eastern Conference in regulation time and overtime wins.  Keep that in mind now that the Caps reside in seventh place in the Conference, only two points ahead of Philadelphia (11 ROW) in the Metropolitan Division and behind the two leading wild card teams in points, Detroit (33) and Toronto (31).

Offense: 3.00/game (season: 2.82 / rank:9^th)

It was a “meh” week for the Caps on offense, despite the three goals per game.  A third of those goals came when they sped out to that 3-1 lead against Ottawa in the first game of the week.  That offense came from welcome sources not often heard from this season.  Eric Fehr started things off for the week with his second goal of the season in what was only his second game back in the lineup after missing nine contests to healthy scratches.  Marcus Johansson was next with his third of the season and first in nine games on a power play.  Brooks Laich got his fourth for the season, his second in six games after potting only two in his first 19 contests.

After that, though, it was a pretty dry week – six goals over more than 170 minutes of hockey.  Part of it was the infrequent dry spells had by Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom, who came to life just in time to save the week.  Backstrom scored the game-tying goal while the Caps were shorthanded with less than a minute left in regulation against the New York Islanders, Ovechkin getting the overtime winner in that game. For each it was his only goal of the week.  For Backstrom it was his first goal in 13 games, while for Ovechkin it snapped a consecutive games streak without a goal (two straight) that he has not experienced in three weeks and restored him to the top spot in the league in goals scored (21).  It was Eric Fehr, however, who led the Caps in goals (two) and points (three, tied with Mikhail Grabovski) this week.

Defense: 3.33/game (season: 2.82 / rank: 21^st)

The shot totals against keep climbing for the Caps.  This week Washington allowed 119 shots on goal (39.7 per game).  It was an odd week, though.  Those 119 shots came on 193 shot attempts, hardly a large volume for almost 190 minutes of hockey for the week.  That 61.7 percent of the shots attempted made it on goal is, at one level, an argument that the Caps allowed their goalies a good long look – by hockey standards – at shots.  As it was, the Caps still allowed 31.7 even strength shots per game.  By itself that average would leave the Caps with only eight teams with more shots allowed per game for the season.

It was an interesting week overall.  There were 18 different skaters on ice for at least one goal, 16 of them on ice for at least one even-strength goal.  As to the latter, six Caps were on ice for half of those six even-strength goals.  Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Troy Brouwer, and Mikhail Grabovski represented the forwards in that crew; John Carlson and Nate Schmidt the defensemen.

The odd part of the week at 5-on-5 was blocked shots.  This, as you fancystat mavens know, is what separates Corsi (which includes them) from Fenwick (which does not).The Caps teetered on the 50-50 margin for the week in both measures over the three games.  However, while the Caps were on the good side of 50 percent on 5-on-5 Corsi for two of the three games, they were on the wrong side on Fenwick in all three.  It was consistent with their 5-on-5 close situations where the Caps were above 50 percent in all three games on Corsi (51.9 percent overall) and below 50 percent in two of three games on Fenwick (49.1 percent overall).  What it meant is that at 5-on-5 overall and 5-on-5 close situations the Caps were below 50 percent in shots on goal in all three games and overall.

Goaltending: 2.91 GAA / .922 save percentage (season: 2.69 / .922 / 1 shutout)

It was Braden Holtby’s week, although that was not the plan.  Michal Neuvirth was to get the start in the middle game of the week, the day after Thanksgiving against Montreal.  But when he came out to take pre-game warmups, he stepped onto the ice and appeared to take a misstep that left him in considerable discomfort.  He retreated immediately to the locker room, his week done.  That left the Caps turning to their video coach by day, emergency goaltender by night to serve as backup – Brett Leonhardt…

(photo via Sergey Kocharov/Washington Capitals)

 

That left it up to Holtby to finish the week in net (Philipp Grubauer was recalled from Hershey to serve as backup on Saturday against the Islanders).  He shook off the meltdown against Ottawa when he allowed four goals on the last 24 shots he faced, allowing only four goals on 76 shots (.947 save percentage) against Montreal and the Islanders.  It was part of a stretch in which Holtby has been very, very good (four of his last six appearances with save percentages over .945) or very, very…not good (two of the six at .900 or worse).  In five of those six appearances he faced 37 or more shots on goal.  He is not lacking for work.

Power Play: 2-9 / 22.2 percent (season: 23.3 percent / rank: 4^th)

In retrospect, it seems almost amazing that the Caps finished the week with two power play goals.  It was not a good week for the man advantage.  First, there were the opportunities.  The Caps had nine overall, but only one of them came against the Islanders in the last game of the week.  And second, the Caps allowed a shorthanded goal on that power play against New York, a goal that might have been the game winner but for some late-game heroics by the Caps (we will get to that).

Then there was the lack of efficiency.  In 14:02 of power play time for the week the Caps managed only six shots.  They allowed half that many shorthanded shots (the shooting percentages were equal for each – 33.3 percent).  Then there was the who.  Alex Ovechkin, as you would expect, led the Caps in power play shots on goal.  Perhaps the unexpected was that he had only three power play shots on goal.  Moreover, he was the only Cap to record a power play shot on goal against Montreal (two) and the Islanders (one).  Even less expected, he was not among the goal scorers for the week.  The two power play goals were scored by John Carlson (on two of the six power play shots on goal for the week) and Marcus Johansson (the other power play shot on goal).

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Penalty Killing: 7-10 / 70.0 percent (season: 83.5 percent / rank: 14^th)

It was not a good week on the other side of special teams, either.  First, this was the fourth consecutive week in which the penalty kill rate dropped for the season.  Four weeks ago the Caps had a penalty kill rate of 90.7 percent and looked as if they might be a top-five ranked club on both sides of special teams, if not top-ranked.  After four weeks of 37-for-49 penalty killing overall (75.5 percent), the Caps have dropped to 14^th in the league.

The “not a good week” part of the week came against Ottawa. Allowing six opportunities is a recipe for trouble, even for teams doing well killing penalties.  Washington allowed Ottawa three power play goals on the first five chances for the Senators, and that was the difference in a 6-4 Capitals loss.  Nine of the Senators’ 40 shots on goal against Braden Holtby came on the power play from five different players over 7:33 of man advantage time.  Twice the Senators scored on deflections when Capitals lost the goal scorer between themselves and Holtby.  Both times it was Karl Alzner victimized, once by Bobby Ryan and the other time by Mika Zibanejad.

Speaking of Alzner, he was one of the same quartet of Caps taken advantage of for all three of Ottawa’s power play goals – John Carlson, Brooks Laich, and Troy Brouwer were the others.  For the rest of the week it could only get better, and it did, the Caps shutting out Montreal and the Islanders on four power play chances overall, allowing no goals on ten shots in eight total shorthanded minutes.  And, it was Nicklas Backstrom’s shorthanded goal in the dying moments of regulation time that tied the game against New York, putting them in a position to make it a winning week.

Even Strength Goals For/Against: 6-6 (season: 50-55; 5-on-5 GF/GA ratio: 0.94 / rank: 19^th)

That the Caps won the week without winning the week at even strength is a hint that it was a welcome result won with less than welcome performance.  It was close, the Caps losing the even strength goals matchup with Ottawa by a 3-2 margin and winning it over the Islanders by a 2-1 margin, with the tie against Montreal in the middle game (2-2) making for another “even” week.

This was the fourth straight week in which the Caps were even in even-strength goals scored and goals allowed.  Buried within the numbers for the week was the performance of Eric Fehr, who had two of the six even strength goals for the week on seven shots.  The rest of the club had four even strength goals on 72 shots.

There was enough frustration to go around.  First, there was Alex Ovechkin misfiring on his first 11 even strength shots on goal before hitting on his 12^th, at 4-on-4, the game-winner in the Caps’ 3-2 win over the Islanders.  Then there was Marcus Johansson, who was 0-for-10 at even strength.  Finally, there was Mike Green.  In three games Green was 0-for-6 at even strength.  For the season only nine defensemen have taken more shots overall than Green.  None of them – no skater, in fact – has taken more with no goals to show for it.

Faceoffs: 85-193 / 44.0 percent (season: 48.2 percent / rank: 23^rd)

Here is another area in which the Caps have seen their ranking slip over the past several weeks.  Okay, it was early in the season – Week 2 – in which they ranked 10^th with a 53.5 percent overall winning percentage.  After this week – a generally poor week in the circle – they have fallen to 48 percent and 23^rd in the league.

Disturbing as the trend has been recently, this week the Caps were worse in the ends than overall.  Washington won only 25 of 68 draws in the offensive end (36.8 percent).  The “offensive” centers – Nicklas Backstrom and Mikhail Grabovski – were only a combined 14-for-44 in the offensive end (31.8 percent).  In the defensive end (46.4 percent overall), the volume generators – Backstrom, Grabovski, and Jay Beagle – were a combined 16-for-32 (50 percent), but only Beagle was over 50 percent (5-for-8).

Goals For/Against by Period:

But for some late fireworks while shorthanded, the third periods might have been disastrous for the Caps this week.  Tied with Ottawa after two periods, the Caps were outscored 3-1 in the third period, two of the goals coming in the last three minutes (one an empty netter).  Against the Islanders – a team that has little talent for scoring in the third period (third worst in the league in third period goals) – the Caps allowed two goals and lost a one-goal lead theytook into the period.   But for those two goals the Islanders would have finished the week tied for last in the league in third period goals.

On the scoring side of the ledger the best that can be said for the Caps was that they were balanced – three in the first period, two in the second, three in the third, with another in overtime.  Either the Caps or their opponents scored in eight of the nine regulation periods for the week, the Caps scoring first in the period four times, their opponents four times.  What the Caps were able to avoid was allowing the early goal.  Only Cal Clutterbuck, who scored at 3:59 of the third period for the Islanders, scored an opposition goal in the first five minutes of a period this week.  The Caps did not score such a goal in any of their nine periods, although Eric Fehr did get one 5:17 into the second period of the Caps’ 3-2 Gimmick win over Montreal.

In the end…

Wins are wins, and having more of them is better than less of them.  How the Caps got two wins this week is something to think about in terms of whether they can extend their modest two-game winning streak into Week 10, but ten weeks from now no one will care that the two wins were not the most artistic of those the Caps are likely to achieve this season.

Of the Caps who had two or more points this week, it was nice to see that Eric Fehr, Troy Brouwer, Joel Ward, and Jason Chimera among them.  Getting that second and third level of scoring when the big guns are largely dormant (and Mike Green still searching for that first goal) is important.

With the Rangers, Devils, and Flyers all lurking within four points of the Caps, scratching out wins in November, however it is done, will be important when the stretch run comes in March and April.   In that respect it was not pretty, but it was a good week.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 25: Senators at Capitals, November 27th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

'Twas the night before Thanksgiving, when all through the city

Not a creature was stirring, not even the turkey

The stuffing was ready, the bird nice and plump,

With hopes that the gravy had nary a lump.

The children were nestled all snug in their beds,

While visions of mince pie danced in their heads.

And Feerless in his slippers, and I in my cap,

Had just settled our brains for a late autumn nap.

When out on the roof there arose such a clatter,

I sprang from my bed to see what was the matter.

Away to the window I flew like a flash,

Tore open the shutter, and threw up the sash.

The moon shining bright on a blanket of leaves

That I spent all day long trying hard to retrieve.

When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,

But a goofy lookin’ guy who was holding a beer.

With a big ol’ belt buckle, and one missing tooth,

He looked as if he’d been a taker in a highway toll booth.

His gait was unsteady, his eyes a bit glassy

He belched and he scratched, and he seemed a bit gassy.

"Now Fearless! Now Peerless!”

Sounding like a bullfrog.

With his hand on his hips he croaked,

“Hey! Get on with the blog!”

Leave it to Cheerless to get in the Thanksgiving spirit in his own unique way.  And speaking of Thanksgiving, the Washington Capitals take the ice at Verizon Center to host the Ottawa Senators in their traditional Turkey Day Eve contest, because nothing says “Thanksgiving” like men on skates wielding sticks.

Be that as it may, the Senators come into this game in something of a giving mood, themselves.  They arrive in Washington with a 1-4-0 record in their last five games, following up their only win in this stretch – a 4-2 win in Detroit – with a thud, a 4-1 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes.

Sometimes, losing four out of five is pretty simple to explain.  In this case, the Senators cannot score (11 goals in five games) and cannot keep the other guys from scoring (19 goals allowed).  They cannot hold a lead – twice in their four losses they scored first and took a lead into the first intermission.  They did passably well in the first period (5-4 in goals scored/allowed), but they were killed in the second and third periods, outscored by 8-1 in the second period and by a 7-5 margin in the third period of those five games. 

On a team with Bobby Ryan and Jason Spezza, it might seem a bit odd that over the five games Ottawa’s leading goal scorer would be Clarke MacArthur, but there it is.  MacArthur has three goals in the five games, Kyle Turris with two, those being the only goals the Senators scored in their 5-2 loss to Philadelphia on November 19^th.  Ryan and Spezza each have a goal in this five-game slump.

The goaltending has been a mixed bag in the 1-4-0 run.  On the one hand there is Craig Anderson.  Talk about regression.  Last season Anderson had a 1.69 goals against average and a .941 save percentage.  He was the only goalie in the last 30 years to play in at least 24 games and have a save percentage over .940 and a goals against average under 1.70.  Nice while it lasted.  This year he has a goals against average almost double last year’s (3.31) and a save percentage of .900.  He appeared twice in the 1-4-0 run, lost both games, and saved only 39 of 47 shots faced (.830).  He could not even point to having to face large shot volumes.

Robin Lehner has fared better in this recent run.  He has the lone win and has a .920 save percentage in his three appearances in the Senators’ last five games.  The trouble here, though, is that he faced high shot volumes, a total of 113 in all and not less than 36 in any of his three appearances.  For the Senators lately, it was one goalie who could not deal with the good fortune of low shot volumes, and another performing well but asked to bear too large a burden in doing so.

Technical issues keep us from presenting images so let's go to the Take 5 for each club...

Take 5 -- Ottawa

1.  The oddest statistic of all over the 1-4-0 stretch for the Senators might be that they allowed goals in 13 of 15 periods. They scored at least one goal in eight of them.

2.  The Senators struggled with possession over their 1-4-0 run.  At 5-on-5 their Corsi-for percentage is 47.7, while their Fenwick-for percentage is 47.9.  But, with small sample sizes come odd results.  Ottawa was over 60 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 and over 56 percent in Fenwick in a 4-3 trick shot loss to Minnesota.  In their lone win, the numbers were 37.3 percent Corsi-for and 39.2 percent Fenwick-for.

3.  The Senators find themselves behind the eight-ball early and often.  Only two teams have allowed more first period goals than the Senators (27).  Only three teams have allowed the first goal of the game more often than Ottawa (16 times), and they are 4-9-3 in those games.

4.  Once upon a time, the Senators were a high-flying, high-octane bunch.  Back in 2005-2006 the Senators had Daniel Alfredsson, Dany Heatley, and Jason Spezza all finish with more than 90 points.  The following year only Heatley had more than 90 points, but Alfredsson and Spezza were close with 87 apiece.  That team went to the Stanley Cup finals.  This team is different.  Ottawa is second in the league in hits. That might be a subjective statistic, but penalties are not, and the Senators have been whistled for more minor penalties than any other club, and no team has found itself shorthanded more often than Ottawa (107).

5.  Only one team in the league has outshot its opponents less frequently than Ottawa.  The Senators accomplished that feat only six times in 24 games with a 2-4-0 record.  Buffalo is 0-3-0 in three instances.

Take 5 -- Washington

1.  As any Caps fan knows by now, if Alex Ovechkin gets seven goals in his next five games, he will accomplish a unique “50-in-50” – 50 goals in 50 games, “The Ovechkin Run.”  Lost in the discussion is that if he does it, he will have passed Mike Gartner to jump into second place in goals scored in franchise history.  Gartner had 397 career goals with the Caps, Ovechkin has 391.  He certainly could make a dent in that effort against Ottawa; he has 19 goals in 29 career games against the Senators.

2.  Odd even-strength stat… At 5-on-5 overall the Caps have the 14^th best save percentage in the league.  Take that down a level, to 5-on-5 close situations, and the Caps are tied for 23^rd in save percentage. 

3.  Do power plays matter?  In November, perhaps not so much.  The Caps are 4-1-1 when scoring a power play goal in November, 3-2-1 when they did not.

4.  How about killing penalties.  Maybe not here, either.  The Caps are 3-1-0 when killing off all of their shorthanded situations in November, 4-2-2 when they do not.

5.  Now, 5-on-5?  That matters in November so far.  The Caps are 6-0-2 in games in which they were even or plus at 5-on-5, 1-3-0 in games in which they were on the minus side of 5-on-5.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Ottawa: Bobby Ryan

When the Ottawa Senators traded Jakob Silfverberg and Stefan Noesen to Anaheim for Bobby Ryan, the Senators were getting a player with a 30-goal pedigree, having topped that mark in each of his four full seasons in the NHL.  He had a bit of a hiccup last season with 11 goals in 46 games (a 20-goal pace), but when he started this season with 10 goals in his first 19 games he was back on pace for another 30-plus goal season (43 goals, actually).  However, in this 1-4-0 run the Senators are on, Ryan has only one goal, although it was the game-winner in Ottawa’s 4-2 win over Detroit last week.  Part of it is getting shots to the net.  Over his first 19 games Ryan had 54 shots on goal (2.84/game), but in his last five games he has only ten shots on goal and was held off the shots score sheet for the only time this season Ottawa’s 4-3 loss to Minnesota a week ago.  He is 3-2-5, minus-4 in five career games against the Caps.

Washington: Brooks Laich

Brooks Laich played in all 82 games of the 2011-2012 season, just as he did in 2010-2011, 2008-2009, and 2007-2008.  He established himself as a reasonably reliable second-tier scorer whose value to the team was as much his versatility as it was his scoring.  Last year, though, he was limited to nine games as a result of injury during the lockout.  Putting that together with his 24 games played this season, Laich is 4-5-9, minus-8 in his last 33 games.  That is a 10-12-22, minus-20 per-82 game pace.  It is also not what the Caps had in mind when Laich signed a six-year/27 million contract extension with the club in June 2011.  With Martin Erat’s future with the club now in question, the spotlight shines a bit more brightly on Laich as a secondary scorer and reliable defender.  He has been neither so far this season, but if the Caps are going to have meaningful games in April, May, and (one hopes) June, he will have to become both once again.  He is 5-9-14, plus-1 in 26 games against Ottawa over his career.

Keys:

1.  Hit the ice skating.  Too often the Caps start slow and find themselves having to claw back into games.  It makes for long games with a lot of effort expended making up deficits. 

2.  Seal off the blue line.  Everyone knows that Erik Karlsson is a talented offensive defenseman for the Senators.  But Ottawa has five defensemen with at least five points this season (the Cap have three).  Patrick Wiercioch and Chris Phillips do not have any goals, but they have 15 assists between them.  Ottawa has an active blue line.

3.  Make the blue line play defense.  Part of dealing with the blue line is making them accountable in their own end.  The Senators have allowed 35.8 shots per game. Only Buffalo has allowed more.  If forced to defend, Ottawa struggles.

In the end…

The Caps are looking to avoid their first four-game losing streak since starting the 2012-2013 season 0-3-1.  That should be motivation enough, but making things more interesting is the fact that four teams are within four points of the Caps for second place behind Pittsburgh in the Metropolitan Division.  After climbing out of the 2-5-0 hole they dug to open the season to go 10-3-1 in their next 14 games, extending the losing streak to four games would undo a lot of good work done to get themselves into second place in the division.  Against a team that has struggled over much of the season and that has issues in its own end, there is no excuse for the Caps heading into Thanksgiving with a bad taste in their mouths.

Capitals 5 – Senators 2

Note:  We will be away from the blog until Sunday fulfilling our holiday duties, so have a happy Thanksgiving everybody.

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 8

It was bound to happen sooner or later.  The Washington Capitals began Week 8 with a big win against a powerful opponent, a 4-1 win over the St. Louis Blues.  However, by week’s end, the Caps lost ground in the standings and no small measure of the good will that came with a 10-4-1 record over the previous five weeks.

Record: 1-2-1

After five weeks of winning records, the Capitals finished with a losing week in Week 8.  It was a week that started with promise, a 4-1 win over the St. Louis Blues being among their most impressive of the season both in performance and in the quality of the competition.  That set up a contest for the Metropolitan Division lead against the Pittsburgh Penguins that carried the usual baggage of “Crosby vs. Ovechkin” discussion.  That contest was not much of one, the Penguins controlling matters over most of the game and leaving Verizon Center with a 4-0 win.  The Caps let about five minutes of their next game against the Montreal Canadiens get away from them, and it was enough for the Canadiens to run out to a 3-0 lead, after which they held on for a 3-2 win.  The Caps ended their week with a game they “played” well but for which they were unrewarded, pummeling the Toronto Maple Leafs’ net for 50 shots on goal and 101 shot attempts, but being defeated in the trick shot competition, 2-1.

Offense: 1.75/game (season: 2.79 / rank:9^th)

Until the St. Louis Blues arrived in Washington on Sunday to take on the Capitals, only once in six road games had they allowed as many as four goals in a game, and not once had they allowed as many as three goals in a period.  The Capitals did both, scoring three goals in the first period and four for the game in a 4-1 win over the Blues. 

Not only would it be the high point of the week for the offense, it would be the last game of the week in which someone other than Alex Ovechkin would score a goal.  The Caps were shut out against Pittsburgh on Wednesday, and it was Ovechkin who scored the three goals the Caps recorded in a 3-2 loss to Montreal and a 2-1 trick shot loss to Toronto.  Ovechkin finished the week with five of the Capitals’ seven goals, the five goals also being the high in points.  Nicklas Backstrom finished the week with three assists.

Defense: 2.25/game (season: 2.75 / rank:18^th )

The Capitals have had their issues with shots allowed and possession statistics in general this season.  The best that can be said of the shots on goal matter is that the week was one of steady improvement, at least as far as volume was concerned.  After allowing a week-high 47 shots to St. Louis on Sunday, the Caps allowed progressively fewer shots, ending the week with allowing Toronto 28 shots on Saturday. It was only the fourth time this season Washington allowed an opponent fewer than 30 shots on goal. 

The possession statistics were a bit more of a mixed result, especially if one decomposes them.  The Caps started the week, if not on the good side of the possession numbers, at least within shouting distance of them.  They Corsi-for percentage in 5-on-5 close situations was 47.6 percent against St. Louis.  By week’s end the Caps improved to 48.4 percent against Montreal, then finished with their second best result of the season, a 60.4 percent effort against Toronto (source: extraskater.com). 

Then there was that game against Pittsburgh.  Back on October 28^th, the Caps finished their game against Vancouver with their worst Corsi-for percentage in 5-on-5 close situations for the season – 35.6 percent.  That was bad.  What happened against the Penguins was a result in search of an adjective.  The Caps finished with a Corsi-for in those 5-on-5 close situations of only 14.3 percent (3 events for, 18 against).  Their Fenwick-for percentage was even worse.  The Caps had no Fenwick events (shots on goal, shots missed) in 5-on-5 close situations and allowed 11.  It was actually decent defense (the 11 Fenwick events being among the top-five efforts of the year for the Caps), but it hardly mattered.

Goaltending: 2.22 GAA / .938 save percentage (season: 2.66 / .922 / 1 shutout)

The goaltending was generally solid.  Saving almost 94 percent of 146 shots (36.5 per game) is about as much as a club can ask their goaltenders to do.  Braden Holtby was 1-1-1 for the week with a .948 save percentage for the week.  He continues to build a solid season after a slow start.  In his last 15 appearances he has a save percentage of .936.

Michal Neuvirth did not play badly as much as he had a couple of unfortunate moments.  In a space of 4:47 against Montreal in the first period he allowed three goals on seven shots.  One shot – a deflection out of the air by David Desharnais – was something he could not control.  Another, a slam dunk by Daniel Briere on a power play after a loose puck squirted from a clot of bodies in front, was one of those random sequences that occurs from time to time.  It was the first goal, on a rush by Travis Moen, that Neuvirth played off the bottom of his catching glove, a misplay that slipped past him and into the net, that started the Montreal flurry.  It was a brief, but decisive slip in play that put the Caps in a hole out of which they could not climb.

Power Play: 2-12 / 16.7 percent (season: 23.4 percent / rank: 3^rd)

For a while the Caps sat in second place in both power play and penalty killing.  At the end of this past week, the power play slipped for the second straight week.  Over these last two weeks the Caps are 2-for-23 with the man advantage (8.7 percent).  The Caps had a respectable efficiency record over the first three games of the week, recording two power play goals on 11 shots in 13:42 of power play time.  Against Toronto the Caps had a shooting gallery – ten shots on goal in six minutes on three power plays.  But they could not dent goalie James Reimer, and it was decisive in the 2-1 shootout loss.

What might be most noteworthy here is that in the two games Mike Green played this week he had only 1:32 in total power play ice time and did not record a shot on goal.  On the other hand, John Carlson finished with 16:23 in power play ice time over four games and recorded a team-high eight shots on goal of the 21 total.

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Penalty Killing: 10-14 / 71.4 percent (season: 85.0 percent / rank: 7^th)

It was not a good week for the Caps on the other side of special teams.  Washington allowed power play goals in the first three games of the week, making it four straight and seven of their last 11 games after going eight games in a row without allowing one.  Braden Holtby and Michal Neuvirth were a combined 22-for-26 in tending goal against the power play (.846 save percentage) – not especially good, but not awful, either.  The 26 shots in 22:16 of power play time was something that might have been controlled more and was just one more element in a disappointing week for the penalty kill.

Even Strength Goals For/Against: 5-5 (season: 44-49; 5-on-5 GF/GA ratio: 0.93 / rank: 19^th)

A few weeks ago you would have thought that if the Caps were fighting teams to a draw at even strength, that the strength of their power play would propel them to success.  It has not really worked out that way, at least for this week.  This might be a product of the fact that the “break-even” at even strength was anything but on a game-by-game basis.  The Caps outscored the Blues by a 3-0 margin at even strength and won.  They lost the even strength battle by a similar margin to Pittsburgh and lost.  They lost it narrowly to Montreal (2-1) and lost.  They managed to go against form against Toronto, winning the even strength contest, 1-0, but losing in the freestyle competition.

Faceoffs: 132-266 / 49.6 percent (season: 48.7 percent / rank: 20^th)

The week was a bit misleading.  Although the Caps lost the week overall, they were very good in the ends.  Over the four games the Caps were 54-for-100 in the offensive end (54.0 percent) and 58-for-107 in the defensive zone (54.2 percent).  It was better for the “offensive” centers in the offensive zone.  Nicklas Backstrom and Mikhail Grabovski were a combined 33-for-56 in the offensive end (58.9 percent), while in the defensive end Backstrom and Brooks Laich were a combined 24-for-43 (55.8 percent).

Goals For/Against by Period:

The second period, a productive vein from which goals have been mined this season, was empty this week.  The Caps managed only one goal for the week, that coming in the second period of the 4-1 win over St. Louis (parenthetically, that would also be the last goal for the week scored by anyone but Alex Ovechkin).  The Caps managed only 14 total shots on goal in the second period of the first three games of the week, no small reason why there was so little production.  The Caps shelled Toronto for 17 shots in the second period of the last game of the week, but could not find the back of the net.

The goals scored for were misleading.  Four goals in the first period in four games is not a bad outcome.  However, when three of them come in the first game of the week, another in the dying seconds of the first period against Montreal, it did not make for a consistently dominant first period, a problem the Caps have had for most of the season.

In the end…

The takeaway from this week is this number: 215:33.  That is the ice time that has elapsed since any Capital other than Alex Ovechkin scored a goal.  Needless to say, while it is nice that Ovechkin is racking up goals, the Caps are going nowhere if he is the only reliable offensive threat.  That the Caps would have a losing week despite some overall fine play by their goaltenders – the .938 save percentage for the week – speaks to that idea.  Had the Caps managed goals by anyone else, they might have ended the week 2-1-1 or perhaps even 3-1-0. 

That the Caps squandered good weeks by Ovechkin and the goaltenders makes this an especially disappointing week in a way that goes beyond the mere loss to the arch-rival Penguins.  The coming week will provide an opportunity to turn that around – a game against struggling Ottawa, a rematch against Montreal at Verizon Center, and a visit to Long Island to play the New York Islanders, a team that will start this week having lost three in a row and eight of its last ten contests.  Ending the month on the good note on which they started it would make for a happy Thanksgiving.

Washington Capitals: A NO point night -- Game 24: Maple Leafs 2 - Capitals 1 (OT/Gimmick)

There are good one-point games, and there are bad one-point games. The Washington Capitals might have seen what was unfolding in their game against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday night, victimized once more by a goal scored on a high deflection that went to video review, watched as shot after shot…after shot… was turned away by Leafs goalie James Reimer, and crumbled late.

They did not.  The one goal was all they would allow, and their incessant shelling of the Toronto net paid a dividend late to get the Caps to overtime.  The Maple Leafs won the game in the freestyle competition, 2-1, but all things considered this was not a bad point for the Caps to earn.

The deflection came on a power play mid-way through the second period when David Clarkson set up in front of the Caps net, gave Tyson Strachan a subtle shove to get some separation and get his arms free, then got his stick up to deflect a drive by Jake Gardiner down and past goalie Braden Holtby to give the home team a 1-0 lead.

It almost stood up.  Toronto outshot the Caps, 7-6, after the Clarkson goal to close the second period, but the Caps poured it on in the third period.  Through the first 15 minutes of the period the Caps outshot the Leafs, 15-4, but Reimer was up to the task and turned all 15 away.  Then, with the clock approaching the 16 minute mark of the period, Mike Green took control of the puck at the Capitals’ blue line and started up the right side.  After taking a couple of strides, he lifted a soft dump-in that hit the ice in front of defenseman Dion Phaneuf, but not within a stick’s reach.  The puck stuck like a sand wedge on the 18^th green, almost sitting up for Alex Ovechkin to one-time it past Phaneuf, past Reimer, off iron, and in to tie the game.

That would do it for the hockey portion of the evening’s scoring, leaving it to the Gimmick.  In the bonus round Eric Fehr and James van Riemsdyk exchanged goals, which it where things stood until the fourth round.  Joffrey Lupul  scored, Troy Brouwer did not, and the Leafs had the extra point in the standings.

Other stuff…

-- If you are keeping score, the Caps have now gone 215:33 since a player other than Alex Ovechkin recorded a goal.  For the record, that would be John Carlson at the 9:27 mark of the second period in the Caps’ 4-1 win over St. Louis last Sunday.

-- The 50 shots on goal for the Caps was the most in a game for the club since they had 52 in a 4-3 loss to Dallas on March 8, 2010.  Ovechkin had two goals in that game.

-- That is the sixth time in 24 games the Caps have scored fewer than two goals.

-- Ovechkin did not have a shot attempt over the first 25 minutes of the game.  He had 10 attempts (six on goal) in the last 40 minutes.

-- Mikhail Grabovski had two new linemates tonight – Eric Fehr (who hadn’t played since November 2^nd) and Troy Brouwer (who had only 17 shots on goal since November 2^nd).  Fehr finished with five shots on goal (12 attempts), and Brouwer finished with five shots on goal (seven attempts).  Grabovski had two shots of his own on five attempts and a few dozen stitches, courtesy of David Clarkson’s skate blade to the cheek and nose.

-- If you do the math, the Caps averaged one shot attempt per 38.6 seconds of this game (101 attempts in 65 minutes).  They had as many of their attempts blocked (28) and Toronto had shot on goal (28).  Eleven of the Caps’ 18 skaters had five or more shot attempts, led by Fehr (12) and John Carlson (12).

-- James Reimer got the first star, and he deserved it. He was the first Toronto goalie to face 50 shots in a game since Vesa Toskala faced 52 in a 3-2 overtime loss to New Jersey on March 3, 2009.  He is the first Maple Leaf to win a game in which he faced 50 or more shots since Ed Belfour faced 53 shots in a 5-4 win over Boston on October 24, 2005.  But it was not as if Braden Holtby was leftover poutine out there.  His 27 saves on 28 shots was his fifth best effort, save percentage wise (.964), of the season, lifting him into a tie for 14^th with Cory Schneider of the New Jersey Devils at .925 for the season.

-- The other side of the shots ledger was the Caps allowing only 28 shots on goal in 65 minutes.  It was the first time in five games that they held an opponent to less than 30 shots on goal and only the fourth time this season in 24 games.  They are 1-2-1 in those games.

-- There was a fair amount of smack talk going around in the social media over Grabovski’s performance (he did not record a point in his return to Toronto), but in addition to making his new linemates look good in terms of opportunities, he won seven of nine offensive zone draws, too.

-- The Caps went 0-for-3 on the power play.  That leaves them 4-7-1 in games in which they do not score on the man advantage.

-- Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin in the shootout, we get.  Eric Fehr and Troy Brouwer?  One had not played in three weeks and had not attempted a trick shot this season, the other had only one shootout attempt (successful).  Oates took his chances and came up 1-for-2, Fehr scoring, Brouwer denied.

In the end, this game probably would look a lot better if the Caps had not lost two games at home before taking the road to Toronto.  Taken on its own merits it is not a bad loss.  They “played” well, dominating possession for long stretches of the game, even if their shooting was not rewarded.  They kept after it, scored late, and earned a point it looked for 55 minutes that they would be frustrated from getting.

Having said that, now the Caps return home for games against Ottawa and Montreal on Thanksgiving week after they get the next three days off from game hockey.  Good will from a hard-earned point in a game like this has a shelf life.  They need to get back to winning these games.