The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 31: Lightning at Capitals, December 10th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return home on Tuesday night to host the Tampa Bay Lightning at Verizon Center.  This will be a matchup of two teams with as much history against one another as former Southeast Division rivals could have with one another.  Tampa Bay is one of three teams that the Caps faced in all 14 seasons of the Southeast Division, the Caps compiling a regular season record of 68-30-6-6. 

The Capitals record book is sprinkled with references to the Lightning…

• Most unanswered goals (9), the last of the four times this was accomplished came against the Lightning on February 3, 1999, a 10-1 win for Washington
• Largest winning margin (9 goals), the last of the four times accomplished coming in that February 3, 1999 game
• Most goals in a period (8), yup… in that February 3, 1999 game
• Most shots in a period (25)…ditto
• Fastest three goals by an individual (2:06), by Peter Bondra in a 6-3 win over Tampa bay on February 5, 1994
• Fastest four goals by an individual (4:12), by Peter Bondra in that same 6-3 win over Tampa bay on February 5, 1994
• Fastest four goals by an individual (24:46), by Peter Bondra in that same 6-3 win over Tampa bay on February 5, 1994

The recent history of the clubs is less kind to the Capitals.  Tampa Bay was the only club in the Southeast that the Caps ever met in the post-season, doing so twice.  Both times the Lightning were victorious, winning in 2003 in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals on a power play goal by Martin St. Louis in the third overtime, the other in 2011 when the Lightning swept the Caps in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

Now these teams are in different divisions, the Caps in the Metropolitan and the Lightning in the Atlantic.  They have similar records – the Caps at 16-12-2, the Lightning at 17-10-2 – but they are going in different directions.  The Caps have won four of their last five games, while the Lightning are 3-5-2 in their last ten.

The striking thing about the Lightning over their past ten games is their wildly uneven offense.  Tampa Bay has only 19 goals scored in those ten games and were shut out three times in the process (twice by 1-0 scores, one of those in overtime).  In their wins, though, they scored a total of 12 goals, a decent offensive output.

This unevenness is largely a product of having lost Steven Stamkos to a broken right tibia against Boston on Veterans Day.  In his stead, the goal scoring has been picked up by winger Martin St. Louis (4-4-8 over the last ten games) and defenseman Victor Hedman (3-3-6).  St. Louis, as any Caps fan knows, has been a thorn in the side of the club for years.  He is 28-48-76, plus-6, in 72 career regular season games against Washington.  Hedman has much less history against the Caps, posting a 1-4-5, minus-3 scoring line in 20 career games against Washington.

Here is how the clubs compare overall through Sunday's games…

1.  Three is the magic number for Tampa Bay.  The Lightning are 16-2-0 in games in which they score at least three goals, 1-8-2 when they do not.

2.  For a team that has been defensively challenged in recent years, they have performed well in this respect.  Only six teams have allowed fewer goals at 5-on-5 than the Lightning (45).  A big part of that is their first period play.  Through Sunday’s games only three teams have allowed fewer first period goals overall than Tampa Bay (14).

3.  Keeping things close is what the Lightning want to do.  They are 12-4-3 in games decided by two or fewer goals, 5-6 in games decided by three or more goals.

4.  Only Colorado (13) and San Jose (12) have more wins than Tampa Bay (11) when leading after one period.  The Lightning are 11-1-0 in such games.

5.  Whatever Tampa Bay is doing to get to their 17-10-2 record, possession does not seem to be a big part of it.  The Lightning are a rather mediocre possession team, posting a Fenwick-for percentage in 5-on-5 close situations of 50.0 percent (15^th in the league), a Corsi-for percentage in those situations of 50.4 percent (12^th).  Their performance has not been appreciably worse over their current 3-5-2 slide.  Five games at better than 50 percent Fenwick-for, five worse.  Four games over 50 percent in Corsi-for percentage, six worse.  Perhaps the possession issues are catching up to the Lightning.

1.  The Caps have won four of five games, which matches their best five-game stretch of the season, accomplished twice.

2.  This is the first meeting of the former division rivals this season.  Last season the Caps swept the series after losing the first of the four game series, winning all three games and scoring 14 goals in the process.

3.  Leading at the end of one period is something the Caps need to work on.  Six teams have led at the first intermission less often than the Caps, who have done so seven times in 30 games.  Those teams hardly inspire fear – Winnipeg, Edmonton, Florida, Calgary, the Islanders, and Buffalo.

4.  At the other end, the Caps are one of only three teams in the NHL thus far to have not scored an empty net goal.  Only five teams have fewer empty net goals scored against them than the Caps (2).

5.  Possession progress… Against the Rangers, the Caps set a club high fourth straight game with a Fenwick-for percentage in 5-on-5 close situations above 50 percent.  It might not be a coincidence that the Caps scored 11 even strength goals in those games.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Ben Bishop

Ben Bishop appears to have taken a firm grip on the number one goaltending role for the Lightning.  He should.  Comparing the intra-club statistics, he has a goals against average that is more than a full goal per game better than backup Anders Lindback (1.98 to 3.10) and a save percentage that is almost 50 points better (.934 to .887).  Bishop is ninth in the league in GAA and tied for sixth in save percentage.  If anything, he has been even better in the Lightning’s 3-5-2 slide.  Bishop is 2-3-1 over that stretch, but he has a goals against average of 1.65 and a save percentage of .948 with one shutout.  Three of his four losses came by shutout by his opposite number, one in overtime.  He allowed only four goals in those three games.  It is a far distance from his career record against the Caps – 0-2-0, 4.41, .884 in three appearances.

Washington: Martin Erat

On November 25^th Martin Erat went public with a demand to be traded.  At the time he said, “I want to be traded. We’ll see how it goes.  Since day one, I didn’t get the chance here. I got traded here to be a top-six player but never got the chance, never played more than 15 minutes in here, and it’s time for me to move on.”  Since then, Erat has dressed for four games, and while he has only played more than 15 minutes once (16:31 in the Caps’ 5-2 win over his former team, the Nashville Predators), he has averaged more than 13 minutes a game and has three assists.  His work with Joel Ward and Jason Chimera centering the third line has been solid.  In addition to the three assists, he has been on ice for only two of the nine goals scored against the Caps over those four games.  Against the Lightning he is 1-4-5, even, in nine career games.

Keys:

1.  Win the fives.  Tampa Bay has an odd record when it comes to special teams.  They are 11-3-0 when allowing opponents four or more power play chances.  The recent run of 5-on-5 success is something the Caps might need to extend here, since getting a bunch of power play chances might not have the benefits one would expect.

2.  More than Marty.  Martin St. Louis has been a thorn in the side of the Caps over his career, but Valtteri Filppula has had a fine start to his career in Tampa.  Signed by the Lightning away from the Detroit Red Wings last summer, Filppula is third on the team in goals and points, tied for second in assists.  He is also tied for the team lead in power play goals.  Marty might get his points, but Filppula can’t and Caps still win.

3.  Second chances.  Ben Bishop is playing at such a high level at the moment it seem inconceivable that first shots are going to do a lot of damage.  The Caps are going to have to get greasy and make Bishop unfold his large frame (6’7”) to make second and, if needed, third stops.

In the end…

The Caps are catching the Lightning at a good time.  Tampa Bay has lost three of four games and seven of their last ten.  On the other hand, the Caps have won four of five.  And, they are doing more of the things they need to do – win at even-strength, get more scoring than just Alex Ovechkin, get defense involved in the play – to sustain a level of performance.

Capitals 4 – Lightning 2

Washington Capitals: A TWO point night -- Game 30: Capitals 4 - Rangers 1

It took a little while, but the Washington Capitals finally solved Henrik Lundqvist.  The Caps had not scored a goal on the New York Rangers goaltender in 180 minutes coming into tonight’s contest at Madison Square Garden.  Lundqvist tacked on another 20 minutes and change for good measure, but the Caps finally broke through and defeated the Rangers, 4-1.

Lundqvist carried his scoreless minutes streak against the Caps into the second period of this game, but not for too long.  In the third minute of the period a Steve Oleksy drive was deadened in front of the Rangers’ net by defenseman John Moore, but the puck was left loose amid a pile of bodies.  Martin Erat took a swipe at it, and Lundqvist got his left pad on the shot.  But in his effort to make the save Lundqvist was sprawled on his back with the puck lying to his left.  Jason Chimera was first to it and stuffed it into the net just before he was cleaned out by Justin Falk, giving the Caps the 1-0 lead and ending Lundqvist’s shutout streak against the Caps at 202:28.

Scoring seemed to agree with the Caps, because they did it again less than half a minute later.  Jay Beagle won a race to a loose puck in the corner to Lundqvist’s right.  He threw the puck out to the top of the zone where Steve Oleksy was camped.  Oleksy let fly with a harmless looking wrist shot that snaked its way past several bodies and over the left shoulder of Lundqvist to give the Caps a 2-0 lead.

Late in the period Derick Brassard carried the puck into the Caps’ end, and after coming to a full stop he left the puck for defenseman Ryan McDonagh.  When McDonagh tried to return the puck to Brassard, the pass was too long, and Brassard could only deflect the puck to Troy Brouwer.  As Brouwer collected the puck, Mikhail Grabovski anticipated the play and broke out between McDonagh and Brassard.  Brouwer led Grabovski perfectly with a lead pass, and Grabovski was in alone on Lundqvist.  McDonagh hooked Grabovski as he was preparing to shoot, and Grabovski’s hindered attempt was turned aside by Lundqvist.  But when play was stopped after continuing for several seconds, a penalty shot was signaled.  Grabovski wasted little time.  He skated in, wound up, and drilled a slap shot from the hash marks that flew high over Lundqvist’s glove and under the crossbar to put the Caps up, 3-0.

The Caps made it 4-0 late in the third period by following up on a narrowly missed chance.  It started when Troy Brouwer rang a shot off the post off a feed from Grabovski at the right wing faceoff dot.  The puck made its way all the way to the Ranger blue line where Nate Schmidt collected it, stepped up and let fly with a shot that beat Lundqvist through his pads.

The Rangers spoiled the shutout barely a minute later when Benoit Pouliot deflected a Michael Del Zotto drive down and past goalie Philipp Grubauer, but it was much too little, much too late for the Blueshirts as the Caps finished things up with a 4-1 win.

Other stuff…

-- Grubauer turned aside 30 of 31 shots to pick up his first NHL win.  He was not called upon to make many difficult saves, but he was solid throughout in a difficult arena in which to play.

-- It was the third consecutive game in which a Capitals defenseman scored a goal, but just as important, it was the fourth straight game in which a Caps defenseman figured in the scoring.  Over their last four games Caps defensemen have five goals and four assists.

-- The Caps managed the Rangers’ shot totals very well.  Even though New York finished with 31 shots on goal, they had only 17 after two periods.  The Caps had that total in the second period alone.

-- In the prognosto we noted one of the keys was to find shooting lanes.  The Caps managed to get 64 percent of their shot attempts on net (36 of 56) and had only nine shots blocked.  There seemed to be periods in which the Rangers would block nine shots in the recent past.

--  Another key was getting on rebounds (even though it was Lundqvist leaving them, not, as we assumed Cam Talbot).  Jason Chimera did, and even Nate Schmidt’s goal was a long rebound of sorts, off a post.

-- Then there was balance.  Once more, it was not just “The Ovie Show.”  Alex Ovechkin was extremely active and dangerous, but he finished with what for him was a comparatively low shot attempt total (six attempts, four on goal).  But four different Caps had goals, and six different Caps had points.  Even Jay Beagle got into the scoring column with an assist.

-- In a nugget that strikes us as a bit odd, and perhaps a scoring fluke, the Caps were credited with 23 hits spread among 16 different skaters.  No Cap finished with more than two, and only Mike Green and John Carlson were hitless.

-- For the fourth time in five games the Caps held an opponent to two or fewer power play opportunities.  The Rangers had two, neither of which bore fruit.  The Caps are 10-for-11 killing penalties over those five games (90.9 percent).

-- This was only the second time in 13 home games that the Rangers allowed more than 30 shots.  They won the other instance, a 5-2 win over Vancouver back on November 30^th.

-- This was the tenth time this season that the Caps recorded three goals in a game.  They are 9-1-0 in those games, the only loss coming against Ottawa.  They scored three first period goals in that game but lost, 6-4.

-- The Grabovski-Brouwer-Eric Fehr line was quite active.  They had 11 of the Caps’ 56 shot attempts.

In the end…

The Caps played a nice, tight, efficient game.  They have the ability to do this on a more sustained basis, and they need it on those nights when the top line doesn’t get points.  The added highlight here is the activation of the defense, which has been featured often in the scoring lately.  The Caps also played stand up hockey in their own end, letting Philipp Grubauer get a good look at the shots he faced and denying the Rangers opportunities otherwise.  If not for another video-confirmed goal (someday the Caps will be on the good side of one of those calls), Grubauer would have had a shutout for his first NHL win.  It was a good night all around for the Caps, who have now won both sides of a back-to-back set three times in five tries so far this season.  It made for a nice weekend and a fine start to the week.

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 10

Week 10 was a light week for the Washington Capitals, but it did not lack for action or drama.

Record: 1-1-0

It was the first two-game week since Week 2, and it ended better than did that one.  The Caps were flat against Carolina, a product of what might have been a disturbing attitude.  The loss to Carolina dropped the Caps further behind the Metropolitan Division-leading Pittsburgh Penguins, but the win over the Nashville Predators to end the week preserved the Caps’ position in second place in the Metro.  That lead is precarious, a one-point margin over the New York Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes, but the Caps have games in hand against both clubs.  The Caps can extend that margin on Sunday when they visit the Rangers in New York.

Offense: 3.00/game (season: 2.83 / rank: 9^th)

In a short week, it might be expected that the scoring totals would be light.  What the Caps had, for good or for bad, was balance.  Six different players scored one goal apiece – Mike Green, Alex Ovechkin (both on power plays), Troy Brouwer, Eric Fehr, Karl Alzner, and Nate Schmidt.  The goals for Alzner and Schmidt were especially noteworthy.  For Alzner it was his first goal at Verizon Center in 148 games as a Capital.  For Schmidt it was his first NHL goal.  The 32 shots on goal against Nashville was the first time in four games that the Caps finished with more than 30 shots on goal.

Defense: 3.00/game (season: 2.83 / rank: T-22^nd)

From the “broken record” file… shots on goal remain an issue.  The Caps finished the week allowing 68 shots in two games, which meant that their average shots per game actually went down (to 35.0 allowed per game), but only Toronto has allowed more shots per game (37.0) than the Caps.

The good news was that the Caps had a solid possession week.  They finished the week with a Corsi-for percentage in 5-on-5 close situations of 56.8 and a Fensick-for percentage in those situations of 53.9.  That is a bit inflated for the end-game possession numbers in the Carolina game.  The Caps started that game well enough, holding Carolina to 15 total Fenwick events for a long stretch of the second period.  But Carolina had a flurry, scored three goals, and the competitive portion of that game was over.  The Caps got some mop-up possession numbers at the end.  The Nashville game was much better in that the Caps had a persistent edge in Fenwick events, even after jumping out to a 3-0 lead in the first period.  It was not until midway through the third period of that game that the Predators close the gap in that regard, and by that time, it was too late.  The Caps pulled away in Fenwick events at the end, following their last goal in the 5-2 win.

Goaltending: 3.00 GAA / ..912 save percentage (season: 2.71 / .921 / 1 shutout)

Braden Holtby has been nurturing a disturbing trend.  He can be very, very good.  Or, he can be very, very not.  He allowed four goals on 23 shots in 40 minutes of work against Carolina, giving way to Philipp Grubauer, who stopped all nine shots he faced in relief in the Hurricanes’ 4-1 win.  The thing about Holtby, though, is that he seems to take poor performances personally.  In his last ten games following one in which he allowed four or more goals, Braden Holtby is 9-0-1, including his win against Nashville to close the week.  Grubauer’s week provides an interesting footnote.  In three career NHL appearances he has appeared in relief twice. He is a perfect 23-for-23 stopping shots in those games.

Power Play: 2-9 / 22.2 percent (season: 23.2 percent / rank: 4^th)

It was a decent week for the power play.  It bordered on the superb for Mike Green, who finally got off the schneid, goal-scoring wise, when he potted his first goal of the season – on a power play – for the Caps’ only goal in their 4-1 loss to Carolina.  It came on his 65^th shot on goal of the season.  As for the power play in general, a 22.2 percent week isn’t bad, it isn’t extraordinary.  Two goals on 13 shots in 13:52 of man-advantage ice time is a workman-like week.  Green figures in the ice time as well.  He assumed a more active role on the power play, getting 7:54 of the 13:52 of ice time, compared to the 6:08 that John Carlson received on the man advantage.

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Penalty Killing: 4-5 / 80.0 percent (season: 83.3 percent / rank: T-14^th)

The key here was opportunities.  The Caps allowed only five power play opportunities for the week and were an Andrej Sekera goal from being perfect in killing them.  That was a difficult power play for the Caps, who allowed the Hurricanes more than a minute of offensive zone time and could not deal with Tuomo Ruutu setting a screen in front of Braden Holtby.  You could see Holtby desperately trying to find a lane to see through, and he ended up guessing wrong, leaning one way to get a view and having the goal sail past him on the other side.  Still, it was not a bad week on the penalty kill, if only for not having to kill too many.

Even Strength Goals For/Against: 4-5 (season: 54-60; 5-on-5 GF/GA ratio: 0.93 / rank: 19^th)

After a run of “even” weeks, the Caps slipped here.  They allowed three even strength goals to Carolina – two when the game was competitive -- and two to Nashville.  Those two came after the Caps went out to three-goal leads.  The made the game interesting, but not as much competitive.  The Caps did a decent job of holding down opponents’ even strength shots, allowing 57 in all.  That number is deceptively high.  Carolina had only 23 for the game in the first game of the week (18 in the first two periods), and Nashville had 34 in the game to end the week (11 in the third period).  Still, the comparison is against a low standard.  The Caps need to clamp down further on opponent’s chances at even strength.

Faceoffs: 64-130 / 49.2 percent (season: 48.3 percent / rank: 23^rd)

It was a better week than what the Caps experienced recently in the circle.  This is not the same as saying it was a good one.  The problem is that the Caps were underwater in the ends. They were 22-for-45 in the offensive end (48.9 percent) and 20-for-43 in the defensive end (46.5 percent).  Much of that is the product of a poor night against Carolina, 44.0 percent in the offensive end and 45.0 percent in the defensive zone.  Nicklas Backstrom and Martin Erat had interesting mirror image weeks.  Backstrom was 10-for-17 in the offensive end (58.9 percent), but only 5-for-15 in the defensive end (33.3 percent).  Erat was 6-for-10 in the defensive end (60.0 percent), but was shutout on five draws in the offensive end.

Goals For/Against by Period:

It was a”doughnit” week for the Caps in Week 10.  Three first period goals, three in the third.  They were shutout in the second period for the week.  Given the Caps’ success in the second period of games this season (they are still eighth in goals scored in the middle frame), it was a bit odd.  On the other side, the good news is that the Caps allowed only one third period goal, not bad for a team that has allowed the tenth highest total of third period goals this season.

In the end…

The Caps tread water this week.  They are still in second place in the Metropolitan Division, but it is not a strong hold that they have on it.  It was an odd symmetry for the week – one poor game, one good one.  For a week with little on the schedule, that made for a lot to talk about and break down.  What we are left with, though, is wondering which team the Caps are – the one that was flat against the Hurricanes, or the one that jumped on the Predators’ throats early in the second game of the week. 

The difficult is that the same issues remain.  The Caps struggle at even strength, they don’t get enough secondary scoring, too much of the offense still runs to – not through, to – Alex Ovechkin.  It’s nice that he leads the league in goals, but having more than twice as many as the next Capital (and you would not think Joel Ward would finish the year with the second highest goal total) makes for the sort of imbalance that makes it difficult for the Caps to win games in which he does not score a goal.

Like this week.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 30: Capitals at Rangers, December 8th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals get right back to it on Sunday night, heading to New York City after their 5-2 win against Nashville last night to take on the Rangers at Madison Square Garden.

Both teams will take the ice in the back half of back-to-back games.  The Rangers dropped a 4-3 overtime decision to the New Jersey Devils at Madison Square Garden on Saturday night, so at least the Rangers will have the luxury of spending the night in their own beds.  The Caps jetted off to Manhattan following their game against Nashville.

The Rangers have alternated wins and losses over their last eight games (4-3-1), culminating with their overtime loss to the Devils on Saturday.  Over those eight games the Rangers outscored their opponents, 22-21, and the scoring for the Blueshirts has been rather tightly bunched.  Six Rangers have five or more points in this eight-game stretch, and they are familiar names… Brad Richards (3-4-7), Ryan McDonagh (2-6-8), Rick Nash (4-3-6), Derek Stepan (1-4-5), Chris Kreider (4-1-5), and Mats Zuccarello.

Who?

Mats Zuccarello… With four goals and six assists over these last eight games, Zuccarello is the Rangers’ leading scorer.  Those ten points exceed his entire total for last season in 15 games played and is almost as many as he compiled over the past two seasons in 25 games played (5-6-11).  In three career games against the Caps he has one assist.

Of more immediate concern to the Rangers is a player who does not generally figure much in the offense.  Marc Staal took a hit from New Jersey’s Reid Boucher last night in the third period of the Rangers’ overtime loss to the Devils.  The incident left Staal feeling, in the words of head coach Alain Vigneault, “[not] quite right.”  It is not clear whether Staal sustained a concussion in the hit; he missed 36 games to one in the 2011-2012 season.

The Rangers have been fortunate to date concerning injuries on the blue line, Staal’s immediate future notwithstanding.  Only seven defensemen have dressed for New York so far this season (compare that to 12 for the Caps), and if Staal is out, it could open the way for Michael Del Zotto, a healthy scratch last night (one of seven this season), to return to the lineup.  Del Zotto, who seems to be to Ranger fans what Jeff Schultz was to Caps fans (that is, a lightning rod for criticism), has struggled this season.  He does not provide a lot of offense (2-3-5 in 22 games), and he is not an especially good possession player (under 50 percent at 5-on-5 in both Corsi-for and Fenwick-for percentages; source: extraskater.com).  In 15 games against the Caps he is 0-5-5, plus-4.

Here is how the two teams compare overall…

 

1.  The Rangers are the only club in the NHL that has not yet participated in the Gimmick.

2.  Rangers special teams have been quite efficient in their recent 4-3-1 run of alternating decisions.  The power play is 6-for-28 (21.4 percent), while the penalty kill is 17-for-19 (89.5 percent).  It is also worth noting the plus-9 that the Rangers have enjoyed in special team opportunities over that eight-game stretch.

3. For a team that doesn’t score much and doesn’t give up much, the Rangers do not have a lot of one-goal decisions on their ledger this season.  Only four teams have fewer one-goal games than the 12 played by the Rangers so far (5-6-1).

4.  If the Caps have had issues at 5-on-5 this season, the Rangers have had issues in bold letters.  Only Philadelphia and Buffalo have scored fewer goals at 5-on-5 than New York.  Despite having a more respectable 18^th place ranking in 5-on-5 goals allowed, the Rangers are 26^th in their ratio of goals scored to goals allowed at 5-on-5.

5.  What the Rangers are is a competent possession team.  They rank 11^th overall in Fenwick-for percentage in 5-on-5 close situations.  When finishing a game at or better than 50 percent in such situations, the Rangers are 10-6-0 (3-5-0, however, at home).

1.  This the fifth set of back-to-backs played by the Caps so far this season.  In the four previous sets, what the Caps did in the first game, they did in the second.  They beat both Philadelphia and Florida on November 1-2, they lost to both Phoenix (in a Gimmick) and Colorado on November 9-10, they lost to Montreal and Toronto (in another Gimmick) on November 22-23, and they beat Montreal and the Islanders on November 29-30.

2.  When the Caps scored on a power play against Nashville, it marked the first time in almost a month that they scored power play goals in consecutive games.  Their previous two-fer was November 7^th and 9^th against Minnesota and Phoenix, respectively.

3.  The Caps have done well of late managing the other team’s power plays.  In three of their last four games the Caps allowed the opposition two or fewer power play chances and have allowed only 16 chances in their last six games.

4.  It is hard to come back in games in the NHL when you fall behind, but there is only one team in the league that has more wins than the Caps (4) when trailing after one period.  Don’t put too much stock in it; the team is Buffalo.  Five of their six wins came after trailing after one period.

5.  Washington is a “real-time” warrior.  If you go to the “real time” statistics at NHL.com, you will find that the Caps are a top-five club in blocked shots, missed shots, and takeaways.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Henrik Lundqvist

Let’s face it.  Job One in this game is “Solve Lundqvist.”  The Rangers’ netminder has 180 consecutive minutes of shutout hockey against the Caps going back to when he allowed the game-winning goal to Mike Ribeiro in overtime of Game 5 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals last spring.  That is 84 consecutive shots turned away over three games – the series tying and series clinching wins in the playoffs last spring, and a 2-0 shutout of the Caps on October 16^th.  It is entirely possible that Lundqvist will not get this start, since he got the call in the Rangers’ 4-3 overtime loss to New Jersey last night.  If he gets the night off, that means that the Caps will face Cam Talbot for the first time.  He might be ripe for the taking.  After eight straight appearances in which he allowed two or fewer goals, he was lit up for four on 29 shots in a 5-2 loss to Winnipeg in his last appearance, last Monday.

Washington: Braden Holtby

One would think is unlikely (not impossible) that Philipp Grubauer would get the call against the Rangers, so that means Braden Holtby appears likely to get the back-to-back call.  Fortunately, he had a comparatively easy time of it against Nashville, the Caps winning by a 5-2 margin on Saturday night.  The concern here is that in four instances of playing both end of back-to-backs so far in his career, Holtby is 2-1-1, 3.30, .902 in the second game, not an especially sterling level of performance.  He has one such instance of playing back-to-backs this season, winning both games, both of them in extra time.  He posted a 3-2 shootout win over Montreal and a 3-2 overtime win over the New York Islanders on November 29-30.  He is 2-3-1 against the Rangers in regular season games in his career with a 1.95 goals against average and a .943 save percentage.

Keys:

1.  Find shooting lanes.  You can take the Tortorella out of New York, but you can’t take the Tortorella out of the Rangers…not entirely.  In their lone meeting this season so far, the Rangers blocked as many Caps shot attempts as the Caps recorded on goal (22).  The Caps need to make the goaltender work harder.

2.  You can’t spell “rebound” without “bound.”  Talbot looked a bit leaky in his game against Winnipeg last Monday.  If he is getting the call, the Caps need to have boundless enthusiasm for getting to the net to whack at any loose change he might leave lying about.

3.  Balance.  See what happens when it’s not just “The Ovie Show?”  The Caps had shooting and scoring balance from the forward lines and defense against Nashville.  Having credible threats on more than just one line and maybe more than one (if that) defenseman puts more pressure on an opponent.

In the end…

It is not a statement game, but it does have repercussions.  The Rangers have had the Caps number lately – two playoff series wins, and they haven’t beaten the Rangers in a game settled in the hockey portion of the competition since April 7, 2012.  And, the winner of this game will be in second place in the Metropolitan Division (unless the Caps lose in extra time).  The odd part of this game is that the Rangers, who play in arguably one of the most difficult arenas in the league for opponents, have the worst home record in the Metropolitan Division (5-6-1).  They are 1-4-1 in their last six home contests and have scored only 11 goals in doing it.  This game actually sets up pretty well for the Caps.

Capitals 3 – Rangers 2

Washington Capitals: A TWO point night -- Game 29: Capitals 5 - Predators 2

If you’re a fan of the Washington Capitals, that’s the way it’s supposed to happen.

The Caps scored early, scored late, and scored in-between.  At the other end they held the Nashville Predators to two inconsequential goals and won, 5-2, at Verizon Center on Saturday night.

Troy Brouwer got things started for the Caps in the seventh minute by first corralling a loose puck at the top of the offensive zone and keeping the offensive pressure on for the Caps, then circling around the net to the top of the crease where he backhanded a rebound of an Eric Fehr drive past the right pad of goalie Marek Mazanec.

Later in the period, Alex Ovechkin notched his league-leading 22^nd goal on a power play.  Nicklas Backstrom won a faceoff to Mazanec’s right, pulling the puck back to Ovechkin at the top of the left wing circle.  Ovechkin wasted no time, winding and firing a slap shot that handcuffed Mazanec and popped over his left pad to make it 2-0, Caps.

Just over three minutes after the Ovechkin goal, Nicklas Backstrom won a faceoff back to Karl Alzner at the left point.  Alzner sent the puck across to Mike Green at the right point, but Green having no clear shooting lane, he sent the puck back to Alzner.  From the middle of the ice, Alzner let fly with a shot through a screen that Mazanec saw too late.  All he could do was wave at it with his glove as it flew by, and the Caps were up, 3-0.

It would have been a letter-perfect first period for the Caps, but Nashville got one back in the last minute of the period.  Roman Josi split a pair of Capital defenders at the blue line and wristed a shot that seemed to surprise goalie Braden Holtby, whose glove was not quick enough to corral the shot that found the top corner on the far side.  The puck might have changed direction ever so slightly by nicking the shaft of Mike Green’s stick on the way in.

After a scoreless second period, The Caps came out early in the third period and scored on Nate Schmidt’s first NHL goal.  The play started when Martin Erat dug the puck out of a pile in the right wing faceoff circle and skated it into the corner.  He turned and threaded a pass through the circle and a clot of bodies to Schmidt on the opposite point.  Schmidt fired a slap shot that beat Mazanec cleanly on the blocker side, and he had his first NHL goal to make it 4-1.

Nashville scored on the next shift, a wrist shot by Eric Nystrom finishing a 2-on-1 rush.  That would be as close as the Predators would get, tbough.  Eric Fehr closed the scoring in the 15^th minute of the period.  Mikhail Grabovski skated the puck into the Nashville zone and dropped the puck for Fehr at the left point.  Fehr stepped in and from the top of the faceoff circle ripped a wrist shot past Mazanec to make it 5-2.

Other stuff…

-- For Alzner and his goal it was a first…on several levels.  It was his first goal of the season.  It was his first goal in 63 games.  It was his first career goal at Verizon Center in 148 games.

-- Four even strength goals was not a season best for the Caps, but it was close.  The Caps had five against the Flyers on November 1^st in a 7-0 win.

-- For those of you who keep track of such things, this was the Fenwickiest game of the season for the Caps in 5-on-5 close situations.  The notable part of the Caps’ 68.6 percent to the good effort was that they held the Predators to just six Fenwick events in these situations.  Maybe because the game wasn’t close after the 13:09 mark of the first period when the Caps took a 2-0 lead.  It was indicative of something the Caps haven’t had much of this season – strong early starts.

-- And now, your odd Eric Fehr stat of the evening.  Fehr had two points last night, a goal and an assist.  And when Eric Fehr gets two points, the Caps win.  This was the 18^th consecutive game in which Fehr recorded at least two points and the Caps won.  The last time the Caps lost a game when Fehr recorded two or more points was on February 11, 2009, when he had a goal and an assist in a 5-4 loss to the New York Rangers.

-- Troy Brouwer broke an 11-game streak without a goal with his first period tally.  It was his second even-strength goal of the season, the last one coming on October 19^th against Columbus.

-- With his goal tonight, Alex Ovechkin has 56 goals in his last 82 games.  In his 65-goal season in 2007-2008 he did not record his 22^nd goal until Game 31.  He got his 22^nd goal in his 27^th game of this season.

-- In his last ten games following one in which he allowed four or more goals, Braden Holtby is 9-0-1.

-- The five goals allowed by Marek Mazanec was the most he allowed in a single game in his young career (14 appearances).

-- The third line of Martin Erat centering Joel Ward and Jason Chimera certainly was an active one.  The trio combined for 16 shot attempts and ten of the 33 total shots on goal for the Caps.  Erat and Ward, both former Predators, had assists on Nate Schmidt’s goal.

In the end…

That’s the way it’s supposed to happen.  It doesn’t of course, but there haven’t been a lot of games like this for the Caps this season.  It was the fifth time this season the Caps scored five or more goals, but it was only the third time they did so and won by more than one goal.  The Caps got primary scoring with an Ovechkin goal and two assists from Nicklas Backstrom.  They got secondary scoring from Troy Brouwer (a goal) and Mikhail Grabovski (two assists), and they got unexpected punch from the blue line, Nate Schmidt and Karl Alzner getting goals.  At the other end Braden Holtby had a couple of hiccups, goals he might want back and frankly might not have allowed in a closer game, but was otherwise solid.  It saved the week for the Caps, ensuring a .500 result.  Now, let’s see if they can make it an even better weekend as they head to New York for the back half of this back-to-back set.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 29: Predators at Capitals, December 7th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s been awhile – four days – but the Washington Capitals head back to the ice, hosting the Nashiville Predators at Verizon Center on Saturday night.  It is fitting that the Predators come to town just as a wintry mix descends on the Capital region.  Nashville has lost four games in a row and has only five goals in those four games.  They are, as you might say, cold.

This is not a team that the Capitals have a lot of history against.  Only 17 times in 14 seasons have these clubs met coming into this season.  Washington leads the all-time series with a 10-6-1 record.  The last time these teams met was back on December 20, 2011, a 4-1 Capitals win at Verizon Center.  Just to show how rosters can change, eight of the 18 skaters on that night for the Caps are no longer with the club (Dennis Wideman, Jeff Halpern, Mike Knuble, Matt Hendricks, Alexander Semin, Roman Hamrlik, Jeff Schultz, and Mathieu Perreault, if you are keeping score at home).  The backup goaltender on that night – Tomas Vokoun – is tending goal (or not, he being injured at the moment) in Pittsburgh these days.

As for the current edition of the Predators, as we noted, they come into this game losers of their last four games.  The Preds have had trouble finding the back of the net.  Not that they are a potent offense normally – tied for 25^th in scoring offense in the league – but over their four straight losses they have a total of five goals.  Colin Wilson has a pair, Mike Fisher has a pair, and Viktor Stalberg has the other one. 

A preview of a game against the Predators would normally include some mention of how goalie Pekka Rinne might influence the results.  He will not be doing any such thing in this game.  Rinne had arthroscopic surgery on his hip last spring and in October developed a bacterial infection in that same hip than has kept him on the shelf since.  That has meant something of a revolving door to the Nashville crease. 

Carter Hutton was the contestant early on to replace the incapacitated Rinne, but after going 4-1-1 in his first seven appearances (including one no-decision), he allowed eight goals on 31 shots in 80 minutes over two appearances (both losses), and has been relegated to backup and relief duty.  Enter Marek Mazanec, a sixth round draft pick in 2012 from Czech Republic.  He was the goalie of record in each game of the 0-3-1 streak Nashville is on, but he can hardly be faulted for that result.  Overall he has a 2.99 goals against average and a .887 save percentage, but that is influenced by a difficult go of it in his last appearance – four goals on just 13 shots in 40 minutes of a 5-2 loss to Carolina on Thursday.

Here is how the clubs compare overall…

1.  In none of those four straight losses the Predators are carrying into this game did they score the game’s first goal.  That’s too bad for Nashville, and it is something that bears watching in this game.  The Preds are 11-1-2 in games in which they score first, 2-12-1 when they don’t.

2.  Nashville has had uniform difficulty outscoring teams on a period-by period basis in their four-game skid.  In none of the 12 periods of hockey or their one overtime did they outscore their opponent, and they were outscored by a 2-1 total in first periods, 6-3 in second periods, and by 5-1 in the third periods of games.

3.  Special teams have been a mixed bag for the Predators lately.  The power play has gone into a ditch.  Nashville is 0-for-13 over their 0-3-1 skid and just 1-for-18 over their last seven games.  The penalty kill has fared a bit better, killing off 13 of 15 shorthanded situations (86.7 percent) during the losing streak, although they have allowed power play goals in each of their last two contests.  They are 27-for-29 over their last ten games (93.1 percent).

4.  Shea Weber and Mike Fisher are tied for the team lead in goals with seven apiece.  There are 85 players in the league with more. 

5.  Caps fans will not get to see erstwhile first-round draft pick Filip Forsberg for the Predators.  He has an upper body injury.  Shea Weber might play for the Predators after missing a week after taking a puck to the eye against Edmonton on Thanksgiving.

1.  Washington has not lost to Nashville at home since December 7, 2005, a 5-2 loss during those dark days after the 2004-2005 lockout.  They have three wins against the Predators since – a 4-3 Gimmick win on October 28, 2008; a 3-2 Gimmick win on October 17, 2009; and the 4-1 win on December 20, 2011, that we alluded to above.

2.  Only Toronto stands between Washington and the top spot (or bottom, depending on your point of view) in shots allowed per game.  The Caps are allowing 35.0 per game to 36.6 for the Maple Leafs.

3.  Mike Green is the only Capital with a Fenwick-for relative percentage (difference between “for” and “against”) in 5-on-5 close situations greater than +10 percent.  He happens to be second in the league among defensemen in that particular fancy stat (Anton Stralman of the Rangers is at +13.8 percent).

4.  Ah, but forwards?  Only Joel Ward ranks in the top-50 in that same Fenwick-for relative percentage in 5-on-5 close situations.  He ranks 45^th with a +5.2 percent.   If you are a glutton for punishment, Brooks Laich and Troy Brouwer rank 268^th and 272^nd among 284 ranked forwards in that statistic.

5.  All seven Capitals participating in the Gimmick thus far this season have at least one goal.  They are the only team that can say that.  They might not want to say it too loudly, though.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Nashville: Matt Hendricks

Matt Hendricks had a devoted following in Washington.  He was the kind of guy you root for… free agent signing, has a skill set that won’t make him a star, but he does whatever he can to stand up for his teammates and help them win.  And how can you root against a guy who displays this kind of support?  Hendricks left the Caps for Nashville in the off-season, and the change has not been kind to his game.  In 25 contests to date Hendircks has but one goal and one point on his scoring ledger, that coming on Hallowe’en against Phoenix.  He has been getting decent doses of ice time, despite the lack of offensive production; he has logged less than ten minutes of ice time only three times in those 25 games.  Oddly enough, one of those was his goal-scoring night.  After he scored his goal he left the game to an upper body injury after only 5:32 of ice time.  The cruelty of that was that he was not around for the shootout – his specialty – and the Preds dropped a 5-4 decision to the Coyotes.  He has only one career appearance against the Caps with no points recorded.

Washington:  Troy Brouwer, Brooks Laich, Alex Ovechkin

Yesterday, in what seemed like a bit of flash-mob analysis (and we mean that in the best possible way), we were shown just how meager the production of certain players has been this season at even-strength.  “The Brouwery Boys” have a combined assist total that is less than that of Paul Bissonette (4), who has played in only 17 games.  It is less than that of Boyd Gordon (remember him?).  It is less than former Capital draft pick Tim Kennedy (traded for a pick that became Mathieu Perreault, who was later traded for John Mitchell… no, not that John Mitchell, who happens to have more than twice as many even strength assists as these three…this John Mitchell).  Needless to say, something has to give here.  It’s not that they’re not trying hard.  But 28 games in?  Three even strength assists?  Good heavens.

Keys:

1.  Five-by-five and five-on-five.  Look, this is really what it comes down to.  If the Caps can’t get well at evens against this team – the third worst ratio of goals for to goals against at 5-on-5 in the league – then this team has serious problems. 

2.  Volume.  Assuming Marek Mazanec gets the start (he started the Preds’ last dozen games), dealing with high shot volumes has not been in his history.  Only five times has he faced more than 30 shots, and he is 2-3-0 in those games.

3.  Close fast.  The biggest problem the Predators have had in their mini-skid is letting things get away from them in the third periods of games.  They have allowed goals in the final frame in each of the four games and have been outscored, 5-1.  The Caps have not been an especially prolific team in the third period, tied for 22^nd in third period goals scored.

In the end, it’s another Western Conference team, and the Caps have struggled with such teams that do not call Alberta “home” (3-5-1).  It is not the best way to turn around from their recent 2-4-1 slide (1-4-0 at home), and as a matter of style it is not the easiest team to do it against.  What it is, is an opportunity to get back to fundamentals, because a Barry Trotz-coached team is going to do just that.  If the Caps don’t match them, the Predators will diligently, persistently, and mechanically make the Caps’ night uncomfortable.  Do the right things the right way, and the Caps have too much skill for this team.

Capitals 3 – Predators 2

Washington Capitals: A NO point night -- Game 28: Hurricanes 4 - Capitals 1

By the time the Washington Capitals scored it had an almost mocking quality to it.  Mike Green scored his first goal of the season in the third period, but by that time the Carolina Hurricanes had a 4-0 lead, and the Hurricanes won going away, 4-1, to end the Caps’ modest two game winning streak.

It was the Jeff Skinner show for the visitors to Verizon Center.  Skinner potted a goal mid-way through the first period to give the Hurricanes the lead, then added a goal mid-way through the second period.  On his next shift he added an assist on a power play goal by Andrej Sekera in the 15th minute of the period to give the Hurricanes a 3-0 lead.  Jiri Tlusty added a goal less than a minute after the Sekera goal to end the Carolina scoring binge in the second period and the competitive portion of the evening.

Green spoiled Justin Peters’ shutout at 6:39 of the third period when he wristed a shot through a screen and past Peters’ glove, snapping a 24-game streak without a goal, but not nearly enough to make a game of it for the Capitals.

Other stuff…

-- An equal opportunity provider, each Capitals defenseman was on ice for at least one Carolina goal.  John Carlson and Nate Schmidt were on for two apiece.

-- When Carolina scored in the first period it marked the 16^th time that the Caps allowed the first goal.  Eight teams have allowed the first goal more often; none of them would qualify for the playoffs if they started today.

-- Two years ago, Jason Chimera hit the 20-goal mark for the first time in his career.  With his assist on Mike Green’s goal last night he is on a pace to set a career high for assists.  Last night’s helper was his 12^th (tied for fourth on the club).  He is on a pace for 35.  His career high to date is 21 with Columbus in 2006-2007.

-- Some years ago there was a player who was once a pretty decent scorer, but by the end of his career had become pretty much a one-note wonder – Yanic Perreault, who three times in his career topped 50 points, but was largely a faceoff specialist by the end of his career.  Injuries have done to Manny Malhotra what time did to Pereault, but Malhotra is very good at his craft.  He did not attempt a shot last night, but he was 9-for-14 in defensive zone draws.

-- Last night was the seventh time this season the Caps had five or more power plays.  They are now 3-3-1 in those games.

-- It was also the 13^th time the Caps allowed four or more power plays; they are 6-6-1 in those games.

-- Last night was the third time Braden Holtby was pulled from a game this season, the first time in a game in which Calgary was not the opponent.  Let’s hope he confines this to teams from cities with names starting with “C” in the alphabet.

-- It was Philipp Grubauer’s third NHL appearance.  In two relief stints, including last night, he as a combined 23 saves on 23 shots in 45 minutes of ice time.

-- Justin Peters is now 4-3-0, 1.67, .938, with two shutouts against the Caps in his career.  Against everyone else he is 16-26-5, 3.29, .899, with one shutout.  Does the term "Cap Killer" come to mind?

In the end, the Caps lost a game they should have won…on paper.  But “paper” was almost the resistance threshold for Braden Holtby in his 40 minutes of work.  The first two goals allowed are goals that should not be allowed, not to that team.  Jeff Skinner is a nice little player, but he isn’t Pavel Bure. 

This is part of what is a disturbing emerging trend with Holtby.  Lately, he is either very good (four times in his last seven appearances allowing two or fewer goals), or he is not (three times in those seven appearances allowing four or more goals).  The Caps have issues with possession, although last night was not one of their usual struggles in that regard.  They do not need issues in goal on top of that.  It would make for a combustible mix that would result in fireworks in the Capitals’ end of the ice.  Fortunately, they have four days to work these things out.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 28: Hurricanes at Capitals, December 3rd

The Peerless Prognosti –urp- cator is ON THE –belch- AIR!!!

Turkey Day has come and gone, sort of like the Redskins’ playoff hopes.  Lost in a maze of odd recipes and warmed over leftovers.  And frankly, we’re sort of glad it’s over.  You don’t want to spend a Thanksgiving with your idiot cousin who wants to make his contribution to the… oh, hey Cheerless.

“Whut…you didn’t like the turkey dinner layer cake?...”

It was interesting, to say the least, and the oyster stuffing ice cream really topped it off.

“My own special recipe.  And whut about the beverage selection?  I coulda gone with some frou-frou white wine, but you have to chill it, and you have to have a corkscrew, and it doesn’t keep.”

Yeah, but turkey gravy soda?

“It’s part of the spirit of the season, cuz… But hey, didn’t you like the dessert?  My own specialty – sweet potato pie.”

It might have helped if you peeled the sweet potatoes…

“Hey…fiber.”

And cooked them!

Everyone’s Thanksgiving is different, and no doubt you have your stories to tell, but it is time to get back to hockey, and that means a Metropoutheast Division Matchup with the Carolina Hurricanes on Tuesday night on F Street.

For the Hurricanes it has been a little bit like watching Sisyphus rolling that boulder up the hill only to see it roll back down, leaving him to try once more to get the rock to the top of the hill.  The Hurricanes started the year with a 2-1-1 record, beating the Caps by a 3-2 score to get them over .500.  Then the Hurricanes lost three in a row to set them on a course to finish the month of October with six losses in their last eight games of the month.

November started with a pair of losses to give them a five-game losing streak.  But then, they won four of five and earned points in each game (4-0-1).  That was followed up with a four-game losing streak.  Carolina broke that skid with a pair of wins in succession, but they come to Verizon Center having lost two in a row. 

The problem is not necessarily defense.  They have had significant health issues in goal.  Cam Ward missed ten games to a lower-body injury.  Backup goalie Anton Khudobin, who beat the Caps in October, has not played since October 13^th, he too having suffered a lower-body injury.  Justin Peters filled in admirably and in 12 appearances so far has a 2.49 goals against average (one spot ahead of Henrik Lundqvist in the goalie rankings) and a .920 save percentage (one spot ahead of Ryan Miller and Marc-Andre Fleury).

The problem, such as it is, for the Hurricanes is an inability to score consistently.  Carolina has been held to two goals or fewer in 19 of 27 games so far.  In those 19 games they have a 4-10-5 record, 4-1-5 in one-goal decisions.

Here is how the teams compare in their overall numbers through Sunday’s games:

1.  How bad is the Carolina offense?  Nathan Gerbe is tied for the team lead with six goals.  He had three of them in the team’s first four games of the season.  He has three in his last 23 games.  On the good side, one supposes, he has already surpassed his goal total for last season in Buffalo – five goals in 42 games.

2.  How bad is the Carolina offense, part deux… In their last 18 games the Hurricanes have been held to two or fewer goals 14 times.  They are 3-9-2 in those games.

3.  You could say that the Hurricane offensive woes are a product of Alexander Semin being out of the lineup with a concussion.  You could say that… but it would not necessarily make it true.  Semin was held without a goal in his last ten games leading up to his injury and had four points total.  Carolina is 2-4-1 with Semin out of the lineup the last seven games.

4.  If Carolina is going to have a chance, they are going to have to be stingy on the penalty kill.  At least that has been the case so far.  The Hurricanes are 6-2-4 in games in which they deny their opponents a power play goal, 4-10-1 when they are less than perfect killing penalties.  They have allowed a power play goal in eight of their last ten games, going 22-for-30 (73.3 percent) overall.  They are 2-5-1 in those eight games in which they allowed a power play goal.

5.  When Carolina is good in possession – really good – they win.  When they are bad – really bad – they lose.  Three times this season the Hurricanes finished with a Fenwick-for percentage in 5-on-5 close situations of 60 percent or better.  They won all three games.  Eight times (eight times??) they were under 40 percent in those situations.  They are 0-6-2 in those games.

1.  Speaking of possession, the Caps had that 0.0 percent Fenwick-for in 5-on-5 close situations against Pittsburgh back on November 20^th.  Was it a wake-up call?  Have the Caps turned their possession numbers around?  No.  In five games since the Caps are under 50 percent in three of them, barely 50 percent in another (50.7 percent in the 3-2 overtime win over the Islanders) and 60 percent against the Maple Leafs on November 23^rd – a game the Caps lost in a Gimmick.

2.  Only four teams in the league have more takeaways at home than do the Caps (137).  Then again, 25 teams have more takeaways credited to them at home than they do on the road.

3.  Only St. Louis (15.4), Toronto (15.9), and Philadelphia (16.8) have more penalty minutes per game than do the Caps (13.9).

4.  Tom Wilson – a forward – has no shots on goal in his last six games.  Among the six Caps defensemen having played in ten or more games, the longest consecutive games streak without a shot on goal belongs to Steve Oleksy and Alexander Urbom, each of whom have had a three-game streak without a shot on goal.

5.  In 5-on-5 close situations, only five teams have a worse Fenwick-for rate than do the Caps.  Those five teams – Carolina, Columbus, Edmonton, Toronto, and Buffalo – have a combined record of 49-73-15.  The question is not why the Caps are just 14-11-2 a third of the way into the season, but how it is they have that good a record given their possession numbers at 5-on-5.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina:  Eric Staal

Eric Staal has points in eight of his last nine games (3-7-10).  But, he is a minus-2 over that stretch, too.  Of 22 even strength goals scored by opponents over those last nine games, Staal was on ice for nine of them.  Only four forwards in the league have been on ice for more goals against, only seven have been on ice for more 5-on-5 goals against.  This is the fourth straight season in which Staal the Elder has found himself in the top-ten among forwards in goals scored against/on ice.  He might have done it in 2009-2010, but he played in only 70 games.  Had he played in all 82, at his pace he would have finished in the top-ten that year as well.  Does he get tough assignments?  Well, he gets favorable zone starts (58.2 percent at 5-on-5).  Is his quality of competition especially stiff?  Not compared to his forward teammates.  Things happen when Eric Staal is on the ice, good and bad.  Pay attention.

Washington: Mike Green

Of the six Capitals defensemen having played in ten or more games, only one is a “minus” player – Mike Green (minus-7).  And here is where “plus-minus” needs to be taken with not just a grain of salt but the whole salt lick… Green has the best 5-on-5 possession numbers on the team.  Not best among defensemen… best, period.  At 5-on-5 Green has the best Fenwick-for percentage (52.2 percent), and he has the best Corsi-for percentage (53.5 percent).  The problem is his own.  Among the six defensemen having played in at least ten games, the club’s shooting percentage with Green on ice at 5-on-5 is second worst on the club (7.7 percent; Alexander Urbom is at 7.3 percent).  Seeing how he has no goals in 37 shots at 5-on-5… well, there you go.

Keys: 

1.  Flurries in the forecast.  Carolina has ten wins.  In four of them they had a three-goal period.  Three times that three-goal period occurred in the middle frame.  That second period has been big in Hurricane wins.  They outscored their opponents by a 14-8 margin in the middle 20 minutes of their wins.

2.  Workin’ Ward.  Cam Ward has faced 30 or more shots on goal eight times this season.  He is 1-3-4 in those games.  Not that it is all his fault – he has a 2.80 GAA and a .919 save percentage in those games.  But if he is going to face a lot of rubber, Carolina does not have the firepower to help him at the other end.

3.  Score first.  One of the most reliable indicators of winning in the NHL is looking at who scores first in games – teams scoring first through Sunday’s games had a record of 292-60-52.  But Carolina is one of only three teams in the league not to have lost a game in regulation when scoring first.  Colorado and Chicago are the others.  Granted, Carolina has scored first in only seven of 27 games so far, but still, pretty good company that.

In the end…

Carolina is not Buffalo-Florida bad, but with just 25 points in 27 games they are not good, either.  Having said that, take them for granted at your peril.  They own a win in the only meeting of the teams to date this season, and the Hurricanes still have more wins in regulation and overtime (nine) than do the Caps (eight).

By the time this game is over the Caps could be just five points behind Pittsburgh for the division lead with a game in hand, or they could fall to third place, just one point ahead of New Jersey, two ahead of Philadelphia, and three ahead of these Hurricanes.  That is how tight things are for now in the Metropolitan Division, and it is what makes earning points the Caps should earn of paramount importance.

Capitals 4 – Hurricanes 2