The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 71: Capitals at Penguins, March 20th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

For the 43^rd time in the Alex Ovechkin/Sidney Crosby era, the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins will go head-to-head in the regular season, meeting Sunday evening at Consol Energy Center in Pittsburgh.  The Caps have a 19-18-5 record against the Pens, 2-1-0 this season. 

The Caps are looking to add to that win total, coming off a 4-1-1 record over their last six games.  Over those six games the Caps have rediscovered defense and goaltending, holding opponents to a single goal in each of the four wins and allowing 13 goals overall while scoring 14 of their own.

The Penguins are, if anything, hotter than the Caps, bringing a five-game winning streak into this contest.  The Penguins are doing it with defense as well, holding opponents to two or fewer goals in four of the five games in their winning streak and limiting opponents to just 21 goals over their last 12 games.

Pittsburgh has outscored their opponents, 17-9, over their five straight wins, led in goal scoring by Chris Kunitz and Sidney Crosby with three apiece.  Kunitz is enjoying a bit of good fortune after some struggles putting the puck in the net.  Before he potted three goals in the Pens’ last five games, he had gone five games without one and had only two over an 11-game stretch.  As it is, he still is not the goal-scorer he was two seasons ago when he had 35 goals in 78 games.  Over the past two seasons he has a total of 32 goals in 143 games, 15 of them coming in 69 games this season.  In 27 career games against Washington, Kunitz is 9-8-17, plus-7.

Crosby does not only have points in each of the five games of the Penguins’ current winning streak, he has points in 11 straight contests (6-12-18, plus-11).  In 33 games of the 2016 portion of the season, Crosby is 22-25-47, plus-17.  He has reasserted himself as the most dangerous offensive force in the league, and it matters to the Penguins that he maintains that position.  Pittsburgh is just 10-14-2 in 26 games in which Crosby did not record a point.  When he scores a goal, though, the Pens are 18-3-2.  He has had his struggles lately against Washington, though, and it is consistent with the change behind the Washington bench.  In seven games over two seasons against the Adam Oates-led Caps, Crosby was 4-11-15, plus-7, in seven games.  Over the last two seasons, facing a Caps team led by Barry Trotz, Crosby is 1-1-2, minus-5, in seven games.  In 36 career games against Washington, Crosby is 18-34-52, plus-2.

Marc-Andre Fleury got the win in goal in Philadelphia on Saturday, so it is uncertain if he will get the call against Washington on Sunday night.  If he does, the Caps will be facing a goalie that is having an impressive stretch run.  In his last 16 games, Fleury is 11-4-1, 1.98, .929, with one shutout.  It is one of his best seasons in one respect.  His .935 save percentage at 5-on-5 is the second-best of his career, topped only by his .939 save percentage at 5-on-5 in 2007-2008.  What he has not done this season, oddly enough, is impress at 5-on-5 on home ice.  Among 31 goalies with at least 750 minutes at 5-on-5, Fleury has a save percentage of .932, which ranks 14^th in that group (numbers from war-on-ice.com).  He is 18-11-2, 2.50, .929, with three shutouts in 32 career appearances against the Caps.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  One of the persistent mysteries in the NHL is how a team with as many gifted offensive players as the Penguins has such unimpressive power play numbers.  The Penguins rank 19^th overall in power play efficiency, which is the obvious way of looking at the problem.  Another is their ability to dominate games with their power play.  They have power play goals in 33 games this season, tied for 13^th most in the league and only three fewer than the Caps.  But they have just seven multiple power play goal games, tied for 17^th in the league and six fewer than the Caps, who are tied for first with 13 such games.

2.  On the other side of the special teams coin, the Penguins are quite effective.  They rank fifth overall in penalty killing and have allowed a power play goal in just 28 games this season, tied for fourth-fewest in the league.  If the Caps can pierce the Penguins here, it would be important.  Pittsburgh has the 19^th-ranked winning percentage in the league when allowing a power play goal (.393/11-14-3).

3.  If the Penguins take a lead into the second intermission, it is the surest predictor of a Pittsburgh win.  The Penguins are the only team in the league with a perfect record when leading after 40 minutes (32-0-0).

4.  Pittsburgh has a very good scoring defense, seventh in the league overall at 2.44 goals per game.  It is their consistency by period that stands out – 57 goals allowed in the first period of games, 56 in the second, and 56 in the third.

5.  Pittsburgh has been a good, if not quite dominating possession team on home ice.  At 5-on-5 they rank ninth overall in Corsi-for (53.3 percent), eighth in score-adjusted Corsi-for (52.5 percent).  If there is something odd in their numbers, given their reputation for offensive depth, it is in the total number of events per 60 minutes on home ice.  Pittsburgh ranks 16^th in shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 for both teams (110.0).  They are especially adept at limiting opponents’ chances, allowing the ninth fewest shot attempts per 60 minutes on home ice (51.4; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  The Capitals penalty kill has been very good all season, ranking fourth in the league overall (84.1 percent).  They have been able to do this, in part, by preventing teams from piling up power play goals within games.  Only twice this season have the Caps allowed more than one power play goal in a game, fewest in the league.  It happened against Columbus in a 5-4 Gimmick loss on January 2^nd and again against Florida in a 5-2 loss on February 2^nd.

2.  The Caps appear to be in another power play slump.  After starting March with power play goals in each of their first three games to extend a streak of game with power play goals to five, they are just 2-for-17 in their last six games (11.8 percent).

3.  This is going to be a battle between teams that do not score first in games.  Only seven teams have opened the scoring fewer times than the Caps (32).  One of those teams is Pittsburgh (31).

4.  Two is the magic number for the Caps, as in goals allowed.  In games in which the Caps allow two or fewer goals they are 40-1-1, the best record in the league in such games.

5.  The Caps do a good job limiting opponents’ shooting on the road, allowing the tenth-fewest shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (54.1).  What they do not do is generate a lot of activity of their own, ranking 17^th in shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 on the road (52.1; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Pittsburgh:  Kris Letang

Since the 2007-2008 season, his first full season in the NHL, Kris Letang is one of five defensemen who has appeared in at least 500 games, posted 75 or more goals, recorded 300 or more points, and is plus-40 or better.  The others in that group are Zdeno Chara, Brent Seabrook, Mike Green, and Drew Doughty.  Since missing ten weeks of the 2013-2014 season after suffering a stroke, Letang has rebuilt his game to resume his position as one of the best offensive defensemen in the game.  Last season he recorded 54 points in 69 games, the best points-per-game mark he had (0.78) since he had 0.82 points per game in the 2011-2012 season.  This season he has been even better with 53 points in 60 games, third in the league among defensemen in points per game (0.88) and the second best mark of his career, topped only by his 1.09 points per game in 35 games of the abbreviated 2012-2013 season.  He is 4-9-13, plus-6, over his last 15 games.  Against the Capitals over his career, Letang is 4-6-10, minus-14, in 25 games.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

Nicklas Backstrom wears the number “19” for the Capitals, but “18” has been a number featured prominently in his career.  Backstrom has 18 goals this season.  He had 18 goals last season.  He had 18 goals the season before that.  He has had 18 goals in four of his last five full season (not counting the abbreviated 2012-2013 season), and the one season he did not, in 2011-2012, he missed 40 games to injury.  Getting to 18 was a chore this season.  He went 18 games (there is that number again) without a goal after he hit 17 before he got to 18 against the Los Angeles Kings on March 9^th.  If there is an odd thing about Backstrom’s goal scoring lately it is that each of his last three goals came in Capitals losses, overtime losses to Philadelphia and the Kings, and a loss to Florida.  The last time he scored a goal in a Caps win was January 19^th in a 6-3 win over Columbus.  In 32 career games against Pittsburgh, Backstrom is 3-30-33, plus-2.

In the end…

Since Mike Sullivan took over behind the bench as head coach for the Penguins, the club is 24-14-5.  Over that same span, the Caps are 31-8-3.  In March, the Caps are 6-2-1 while the Pens are 7-3-0.  These are teams on similar trajectories, but not necessarily on similar levels.  The Penguins have done well since Evgeni Malkin left the lineup with an upper-body injury that will keep him out until late-April, winning four in a row in his absence.  But is it a team that can succeed with Sidney Crosby figuring in half of the team’s scoring (eight of 17 goals in their five-game winning streak), or will the lack of scoring diversity present a problem? 

On the other hand, the Caps are getting contributions from up and down the lineup.  It was three assists from Evgeny Kuznetsov and a pair of goals from Daniel Winnik against Nashville, Justin Williams and Alex Ovechkin getting goals in an overtime win over Carolina, three different players getting goals and six different players getting assists when the Caps erased a three-goal deficit in the third period against Los Angeles to grab a standings point.

Pittsburgh is hot, but the Caps are deeper and more consistent.  They have not lost consecutive road games in regulation since early November.  They won’t break that string in Pittsburgh.

Capitals 2 – Penguins 1

Washington Capitals Recap: A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 4 - Predators 1

When the Washington Capitals took the ice on Friday night against the Nashville Predators, they faced a team every bit as hot as they were, if not more so.  From February 13^th until the drop of the puck on Friday night the Preds were 11-1-4 to the Caps’ 10-4-1 record.  They posed a stiff test for a Capitals team that is trying to fine tune its game for the postseason.  The Caps passed that test with a 4-1 win.

After a scoreless first period, the Caps spotted the Predators a goal on a power play.  Working the puck around the top of the offensive zone, Roman Josi fed it to Filip Forsberg at the top of the right wing faceoff circle.  With Mike Ribeiro screening goalie Braden Holtby, Forsberg caught Holtby peeking around the wrong corner and fired a shot into the open side of the net to Holtby’s left for the 1-0 lead 3:30 into the second period:

Then it was time for the Caps to take advantage of a Predators penalty.  Ryan Johansen was sent off at the 5:52 mark for tripping Taylor Chorney to set the Caps up with a man advantage.  Nashville had the penalty almost killed off, but not quite.  A pair of sharp passes and a fine finish did the Predators in.  Nashville cleared the puck down the ice to get a line change as the Caps power play was winding down.  Braden Holtby skated out to the corner just outside the goal line and sent the puck up hard to Evgeny Kuznetsov at the Predators’ blue line.  Kuznetsov skated the puck slowly in and from the right wing circle wound up as if for a slap shot.  However, a passing lane opened up between the Preds’ Shea Weber and Colton Sissons, and Kuznetsov sent a slap pass through the middle of the ice to Daniel Winnik darting in on the left side. Winnik took the pass in stride and snapped a shot high into the net behind goalie Carter Hutton, who bit on the Kuznetsov fake and was defending the shot that never came.

Less than five minute later, the Caps had the lead for good.  Caps fans have seen it before; the Predators, perhaps not.  With the teams battling for the puck in the Olympia corner, Kuznetsov beat Petter Granberg to it when it squirted out from a clot of players.  Kuznetsov circled behind the net, but he did not come out the other side with the biscuit.  From behind the cage he backhanded a pass behind him and out to T.J. Oshie, who wristed it into the cage as Hutton was leaning the other way to defend the puckcarrier who never came.  It was 2-1 at the 12:22 mark.

Just as the second period was winding down, Winnik scored his second of the game.  It started with Dmitry Orlov grabbing a loose puck and starting up ice from inside his own blue line.  Getting up a head of steam through the neutral zone, Orlov backed off the defense, and as he reached the Nashville blue line he slid the puck off to his left to Winnik filling in on that side.  Winnik took a couple of steps up, and from the top of the left wing circle he snapped a shot that handcuffed Hutton and sailed into the far top corner of the net to make it 3-1 with just 18 seconds left in the period.

If the Predators had any designs on making this a competitive game once more, the Caps erased them in the first minute of the third period.  The play started with Kuznetsov skating the puck down the right side into the Nashville zone.  The puck slid off his stick, but Kuznetsov worked his way around Ryan Johansen to regain possession.  From the right wing corner he, and perhaps he alone, spied Andre Burakovsky arriving in the low slot.  Kuznetsov got the puck to him smartly, and Burakovsky had time to pick a corner.  He chose wisely, snapping the puck over Hutton’s glove into the top corner for the final tally in the 4-1 Capitals win.

Other stuff…

-- Daniel Winnik recorded his first two goals as a Capital and did it in most efficient fashion, doing it with the only two shots on goal he recorded for the game.  Winnik became the 23^rd Capital to record a goal this season.  Last year’s club had 21 different players record goals.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov had three assists, the fourth time this season he recorded three or more assists.  He is tied with Ottawa’s Erik Karlsson for most games recording three or more assists.

-- All of Kuznetsov’s assists were primary assists, giving him 41 such helpers this season, tops in the league, six more than Chicago’s Patrick Kane.

-- This was the 12^th time this season that the Caps had five or more power play opportunities (they had five in this game).  They are 8-3-1 overall in such games and 2-2-0 when they fail to record a goal, as they did in this game.

-- Back to Kuznetsov.  It is amazing how a player can dictate the outcome without taking so much as a single shot attempt.  In fact, Kuznetsov’s score sheet is quite clean.  Three assists, plus-3, and he won 13 of 18 draws (72.2 percent).  That’s it. No shot attempts, no hits, no takeaways, no blocked shots.  Just passes for layups and faceoff wins.

-- Dmitry Orlov was a plus-4, making him one of ten players this season with two games of plus-4 or better (Kuznetsov is another).  The other was in a 4-3 win over the New Jersey Devils on February 20^th.

-- T.J. Oshie set a personal career best with his 22^nd goal of the season.  He had 21 for the St. Louis Blues in 2013-2014.

-- When Andre Burakovsky scored in the third period, it was his 15^th goal of the season, giving the Caps eight players with 15 or more goals, tying the 2009-2010 team for most players with 15 or more goals since the 2004-205 lockout.

-- Braden Holtby seems to be working himself back into “2015 Holtby.”  This was the third time in four games that he allowed a single goal.  Over those four games he has a goals against average of 1.68 and a save percentage of .933.  Compare that to his numbers in the 2015 portion of this season: 1.86, .934.

-- There were considerable score effects in the possession numbers, the Caps going into defensive mode after taking the 4-1 lead in the third period.  At 5-on-5 the Predators won the shot attempts battle, 24-6, and they had more shots on goal, 9-3.  But over the first two periods, the Caps were the better team.  Over the first 40 minutes the Caps enjoyed a 34-27 edge in shot attempts at 5-on-5 and a shots advantage of 21-9 (numbers from war-on-ice.com). 

In the end…

This is now the second-winningest team in Caps history, the 2009-2010 team with 54 wins the only team standing in their way of the top spot.  This was a game that was a little more reminiscent of the games the Caps played over the first 50 games of the season where they systematically wore down an opponent with depth and skill.  Even with Nashville getting the first goal, on a power play, one did not have the feeling that the Predators were the better team.   The best sign here might be that the Caps recorded their first win by more than one goal in more than a month (3-1 over Los Angeles on February 16^th) and their first win by multiple goals that did not involve an empty netter supplying the more-than-one-goal margin since they beat Columbus, 6-3, on January 19^th.  It comes just in time as the Caps head out onto a three-game road trip, starting with a nationally-televised game in Pittsburgh on Sunday evening.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 70: Predators at Capitals, March 18th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals will wrap up their short two-game home stand on Friday night when the Nashville Predators come to town.  The Caps stopped a two-game winless streak from becoming three when they beat the Carolina Hurricanes, 2-1, in overtime on Tuesday night.  Nashville, which lost to Washington in Tennessee back on February 9th, 5-3, has been a very good team since, going 10-1-4 in 15 games since that meeting.

The Predators do come into this game without everything being unicorns and accordions, though.  Going into Thursday night’s game against the New York Islanders (their first at home after a five-game road trip), they are 1-1-1 over their last three contests and will be coming to Washington to play the second half of a back-to-back set of games.

Scoring has become a bit of a problem for the Predators in recent games, posting just seven goals in their last three – their swing through the three western Canada cities of Calgary, Vancouver, and Edmonton – after averaging almost 3.4 goals per game in 12 games after facing the Caps last month.  Neither of their top-two forwards in total points – Filip Forsberg and Mike Ribeiro – had a point in any of those last three games.

Despite the three-game slump, Forsberg is on roughly the points-producing pace (61) that he had last season (63).  This year, he is doing it with more emphasis on goal scoring.  He has 28 goals through 70 games this season, a career best after posting 26 goals in 82 games last year.  Part of that was a February that left third-degree burns on the rest of the league when he recorded 12 goals in 13 games for the month.  What he has not done lately, though, is score goals on the road.  Since he recorded a hat trick in Toronto against the Maple Leafs on February 23rd, he has one goal in his last six road contests.  And, in this three-game mini-slump, he has more penalty minutes (nine) than shots on goal (six).  In three career games against the team that drafted him, Forsberg is 3-2-5, plus-2.

When we penned our prognosto back on February 8th before the last meeting of these clubs, we said of Ribeiro…

“With six goals in 53 games he is on a pace to finish with fewer than ten goals over a season for the first time since 2002-2003, when he had five goals in 52 games for the Montreal Canadiens.  He is averaging less than a shot on goal per game for the first time since he had no shots in two games with the Canadiens in 2000-2001.”

It has not gotten any better.  Since then, Ribeiro has one goal in 16 games on 17 shots. In five of his last ten games he did not record a shot on goal and only once recorded more than one (three against Calgary on March 9th).  He does have 13 assists in the 16 games since facing the Caps, so he is managing to contribute in other areas in the offensive end of the ice.  And, it seems to matter.  When Ribeiro records at least one assist, the Predators are 22-6-4, while they are 13-16-9 when he does not.  Ribeiro is 2-9-11, plus-2, in 23 career games against the Caps.

Pekka Rinne spent the first half of the regular season playing goal in a very un-Rinne-esque fashion.  In his first 46 appearances he was 20-18-8, 2.57, .902, with two shutouts.  However, over his last 11 appearances he has been the Rinne who was a Vezina Trophy finalist in consecutive seasons at the start of this decade.  He is 8-1-2, 1.89, .939, with two shutouts over those 11 appearances.  The question will be whether he will get the call for both ends of the back-to-back set of games the Predators will play against the New York Islanders on Thursday night and against the Capitals on Friday.  It would not be surprising.  Rinne went into Thursday’s game tied for the league lead in appearances among goaltenders (57), games started (57), and he led outright in minutes played (3,422).  It might be worth noting that he did play in one set of back-to-back games this season, dropping both ends of the set – at Columbus (on November 20th) and at Minnesota (on November 21st) – allowing seven goals on 44 shots.  Nashville was shutout in both games by identical 4-0 scores.  In three career appearances against the Caps, Rinne is 2-1-0, 2.68, .911.

1.  Odd fact about Mike Ribeiro and his goal scoring.  In six of the seven games in which he recorded a goal this season, he also had an assist, 1-1-2 in each of those six games.

2.  Odd fact about Rinne and his shots faced.  In six games this season, all of which he started and finished, he faced fewer than 20 shots on goal.  He lost five of those games and had a save percentage of just .816 in those six games.

3.  Nashville is second in the league in fewest shots on goal allowed per game (27.3).  Only two teams have allowed 20 or fewer shots in a game more times than the eight times the Predators have done so (Carolina and Montreal, both with nine occasions).  Odd thing, the Preds are just 3-5-0 in those games.

4.  Only five teams have allowed fewer first period goals than Nashville (44), but no team has allowed more overtime goals than the Predators (12).

5.  Nashville has the fifth-best Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall in the league (52.4 percent) and the fourth-best score adjusted Corsi-for (52.8 percent). They are not quite as good on the road, ranked eighth in overall Corsi-for (51.2 percent) and ranked sixth in score adjusted Corsi-for (52.4 percent; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  When Alex Ovechkin scored I overtime to secure the 2-1 win over Carolina on Tuesday, it made the Caps 30-5-0 in games in which he scored at least one goal this season.  They are 20-9-5 when he doesn’t, which is still a 108-point pace.  It’s a deep team.

2.  Only one team this season has had fewer games with 20 or fewer shots on goal than the Capitals, who have two such games (and won both). Care to guess who?  We’ll wait…

…the Toronto Maple Leafs (1).

3.  On the other hand, only three teams have fewer games with 40 or more shots on goal than the Caps, who have done it three times – Arizona, Calgary, and Tampa Bay with two apiece.  Oh, and the Caps won all three of their games, too.

4.  The Caps are a plus-33 in third-period goal differential.  That is better than the total goal differential of 28 teams, and Los Angeles is a plus-34.

5.  Washington has allowed the second highest number of shot attempts per 60 minutes on home ice (58.6).  Only Colorado has allowed more (61.3; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Nashville: Roman Josi

In his five seasons in the NHL, Roman Josi is one of 12 defensemen to play in at least 300 games, record 40 or more goals, and post 120 or more assists.  The list reads like a who’s who of NHL defensemen with the likes of Drew Doughty, Erik Karlsson, Kiklas Kronwall, Mark Giordano, Kevin Shattenkirk, teammate Shea Weber, and Washington’s John Carlson on it.  He is on a pace this season to finish with 13 goals, which would challenge his career best (15) set last year in 81 games.  He seems quite likely to break his personal best in assists (40) set last year (he has 38 in 70 games) and points (55), also set last season (he is on a pace to finish with 57).  What he has not done lately from the blue line is score goals.  He has just one in his last 25 games and none in his last 16 contests.  Josi is 2-1-3, minus-2, in six career games against the Caps.

Washington: Daniel Winnik

Having arrived from Toronto in the Brooks Laich deal at the trading deadline, Daniel Winnik has seven games under his belt with the Caps.  He has toiled in relative obscurity on the fourth line, not making a big impression in the top-end statistics – no goals, no assists, no points, even in six of his seven games (plus-1 in the other), averaging exactly one shot on goal per game, getting a shade over 13 minutes of ice time a night.  But in 91 minutes and change of ice time, Winnik has been on ice for only two goals against.  Being a fourth liner, he is not likely to see much in the way of productive offensive talent across the ice from himself.  But still, the goals that the other team does not get is a contribution, too, whatever his numbers in the offensive end.  If he is going to break through on the score sheet it might be against the Predators.  Winnik is 5-4-9, plus-2, in 25 career games against Nashville.

In the end…

The Caps are getting to that point in the season where they are fine tuning the details of their game so that they can be productive and effective when the post season starts in less than four weeks.  This will be a good game as part of that process, facing a team that is solid in offense and defense, and with very good goaltending.  Nashville is certainly representative of the talent the Caps will face in the postseason, and it is getting time to demonstrate that they can flourish against such teams.

Capitals 3 – Predators 2

Washington Capitals Recap: A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 2 - Hurricanes 1 (OT)

The Washington Capitals became the first team in the NHL to clinch a playoff berth this season when they defeated the Carolina Hurricanes, 2-1, in overtime last night at Verizon Center. 

The teams played to a scoreless first period, but less than two minutes into the second period the Caps broke in front.  Jason Chimera circled the puck out and around the top of the right wing faceoff circle and fired a shot at the Carolina net that was kicked out by goalie Eddie Lack.  Defenseman Michal Jordan swatted the rebound into the left wing corner, but Chimera, who had circled all the way over to the other side of the ice, collected the loose puck.  He sent it to the top of the crease where Justin Williams had inside position on Nathan Gerbe.  Williams had only to get the blade of his stick on the puck to flick it past Lack to give the Caps a 1-0 lead 90 seconds into the period.

Carolina tied it mid-way through the period on a feat of strength by Jordan Staal.  Carrying the puck through the right wing faceoff circle while wearing Jay Beagle like a fur stole about his shoulders, he still managed to get off a shot on goalie Braden Holtby.  His initial shot was stalled in front, but Dmitry Orlov’s attempt to clear it was a whiff.  It allowed Staal to follow up his own shot and from the edge of the left wing circle he was true on his second attempt, snapping the puck past Holtby’s left shoulder at the 10:50 mark of the period.

That would be the extent of the scoring in regulation.  Overtime was another matter.  It was a matter of two players playing their primary roles.  Alex Ovechkin started the last sequence by fighting off Brett Pesce in the Olympia corner and sliding the puck to Evgeny Kuznetsov behind the Carolina net, then crossing in front of him to take up station in front of Lack.  Kuznetsov held the puck for an instant, then floated a saucer pass over the stick of defenseman Noah Hanafin and out to Ovechkin backing into the right wing circle.  Ovechkin one-timed the puck under Lack’s right arm and into the back of the net, giving the Caps the 2-1 win and the first postseason clinch in the league this season.

Other stuff…

-- The Caps got a gift.  The game-winning scoring play originated when Evgeny Kuznetsov carried the puck into the Carolina zone…or did he?  As Kuznetsov approached the Carolina blue line, it was clear he had possession of the puck, but the puck must enter the zone before the player.  You be the judge…was Kuznetsov in clear possession of the puck, or was he offsides?

(screen capture from CSN feed)

-- With the win, this edition of the Capitals became the fourth 50-win team in franchise history, joining the 1985-1986 team (50 wins), the 2008-2009 team (50), and the 2009-2010 team (54).

-- Alex Ovechkin’s goal snapped a five-game streak without one, his longest drought of the season.  His 517^th career goal leaves him one behind Dale Hawerchuk for 35^th place in NHL history.

-- The Jay Beagle Experiment had mixed results.  Playing top-line minutes (only Alex Ovechkin had more even strength ice time among forwards), Beagle had just one shot attempt (a miss), two takeaways, and he won the only faceoff he took.  And, he was outmuscled for position by Jordan Staal on the Hurricanes’ lone goal.

-- Hey, did we call it?  We noted in the prognosto that Justin Williams might be ramping up for a strong stretch run with points in his previous three games.  Well, make it four and goals in his last two with his goal on Tuesday night. 

-- This was the fifth game this season in which the Caps and their opponent combined for three or fewer power play opportunities (Carolina had two, the Caps had one) and the second time the Caps did it against the Hurricanes.  The teams combined for three power play chances on New Year’s Eve (Carolina getting all of them).  Tuesday night was the Caps’ first win this season in such a situation since they defeated the Chicago Blackhawks, 4-1, back on October 15th.

-- Jason Chimera is not generally known for a high volume of assists, but he did break a ten-game streak without a helper when he assisted on Justin Williams’ goal.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov became the 16^th player in Capitals history to record 50 or more assists in at least one season.  He is the first not named Nicklas Backstrom or Alex Ovechkin to do it since Mike Green had 57 assists in the 2009-2010 season.

-- Braden Holtby was solid in goal for the Caps.  But for a singularly noble effort by Jordan Staal (or a little more support from Dmitry Orlov clearing a puck in front of him), he might have had a shutout in this one.  In his last three games he is more Holtbeastly 2-0-1, 1.90, .929.

-- It was a low-volume of events sort of game, the teams combining for just 104 shot attempts for the game and only 92 at 5-on-5.  The Caps won that battle, 51-41 and are 52.6 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 over their last three games.

In the end…

No, it wasn’t pretty.  Maybe that was to be expected, what with the forward lines a bit of a fruit salad.  But it was a win like a lot of others this season, finding a way to squeeze out a one-goal margin.  And make no mistake, the Caps were playing a team that is still fighting to stay in playoff contention; they were no pushover.  What they did on Tuesday that they haven’t done much of lately was hold a team without a first period goal and then getting the game’s first goal for themselves.  That’s the sort of thing folks need to see more often, so in that respect consider this game a success.  Oh yeah, and for the win, too.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 69: Hurricanes at Capitals, March 15th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals are back home after a four-game, eight-day, 3389-mile road trip, once more in the embrace of the friendly confines of Verizon Center where they host the Carolina Hurricanes on Tuesday night in what used to be a critical Southeast Division matchup.  The divisions might have changed, but the stakes have not.  The Capitals are trying to get past a rough stretch of road that left them with a 5-4-1 record in their last ten games (2-1-1 on the four-game road trip).  The Hurricanes are in even tougher straits, fighting for their playoff lives as they embark on their last 13 regular season games of the season.

Carolina sits in sixth place in the Metropolitan Division, five points out of a wild-card playoff berth with two teams – the Philadelphia Flyers and the Detroit Red Wings – to climb over.  And, they have played the same number of games as Detroit (69), while the Flyers hold two games in hand (67 games played). 

The Hurricanes come into this game with points in each of their last five games (3-0-2) , and they are in the midst of a recent stretch of games heavily weighted to the road side of the ledger.  They opened March with a pair of road games, a win in New Jersey and an overtime loss in Tampa before beating Ottawa at home in the Gimmick.  They took to the road again and won in overtime against Boston before dropping an overtime decision in Buffalo last Saturday night.  Their visit to Washington is the third game in a five-game road trip, games in Pittsburgh and Minnesota coming after Carolina visits the Caps.

Carolina played those last five games as close as can be.  The first of them, a 3-1 win over the New Jersey Devils, featured an empty net goal in the last half minute of play in what was a one-goal game.  Each of their last four contests have gone to extra time, the Hurricanes splitting the four decisions with their opponents.  Overall they outscored their opponents, 14-13.  And, their special teams have been effective, the power play going 4-for-13 (30.8 percent), while the penalty killers went 12-for-13 (92.3 percent).

Jeff Skinner has a hand in almost half the Hurricanes’ goals over the last five games, posting three goals and three assists.  Skinner has points in each of his last four games and in five of his last six (4-4-8).  Skinner has bounced back nicely from a disappointing 2014-2015 season in which he had career lows for a full season in goals (18), assists (13), points (31), and plus-minus (minus-24).  His 25 goals leads the team, as does his 43 points.  Skinner is 10-11-21, minus-2 in 28 career games against the Capitals.

Phil DiGiuseppe has had a nice run of his own of late.  He is second in scoring among the Hurricanes over their last five games (2-3-5), part of what is a solid rookie season.   He is 16^th among rookie forwards in total scoring (6-10-16) despite playing in about half of the games (36) of every player ahead of him except Edmonton’s uber-rookie, Connor McDavid (14-21-35 in 34 games).  He is already among the top dozen rookies in franchise history in points since the Hurricanes established themselves in Carolina in 1997.  DiGiuseppe has a goal in two career games against the Caps.

We might be coming to the end of the Cam Ward era in goal for the Hurricanes.  Ward will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season, and after 11 seasons for the only team he ever played for, he might be moving on.  Ward is the Hurricanes’ version of the Capitals’ long-time netminder Olaf Kolzig, a player who had success when called upon to assume the number one netminding duties (Kolzig went to the Stanley Cup finals in his first year as full-time starter, Ward won a Stanley Cup in his first postseason) but who had to fight through some tougher times in the later stages of his tenure.  Of 44 goaltenders to play for the Hartford Whalers/Carolina Hurricanes franchise, Ward ranks first in games (557), wins (260), losses (206), shots faced (15,884), and minutes played (31,929).  Among goalies appearing in at least 50 games for the franchise, Ward ranks fifth in goals against average (2.70) and fourth in save percentage (.909).  He has had a rough go of it lately, going 3-4-1, 2.86, .897 in his last eight appearances, although he does have two wins and an extra time loss in his last three appearances.  Ward is 16-15-4, 2.63, .917, with four shutouts in 36 career appearances against Washington.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  No team has spent fewer situations shorthanded on the road than the Hurricanes (89).

2.  Getting and keeping early leads has been an issue for Carolina.  The Hurricanes rank 20^th in winning percentage in games in which they score first (.657/23-5-7), and they rank 27^th in games in winning percentage in which they take a lead into the first intermission (.619/13-3-5).

3.  Carolina leads the league in credited takeaways (636) and has the best takeaway-to-giveaway ratio in the league (1.13:1).

4.  The Hurricanes are just one of four teams without a player to have reached the 45-point mark for the season.  Columbus, Toronto, and Detroit are the others.

5.  If the Caps think getting off their habit of slow starts will be easy against what amounts to a non-playoff team, hold off on that.  Carolina has the third best Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall in the league in road games (51.6 percent).  The Hurricanes’ problem is that their possession numbers have out-performed their production; they are a minus-13 in goal differential at 5-n-5 on the road, tied for 23^rd in the league (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  The Capitals’ power play is nothing if not consistent.  At home it is 26-for-107 (24.3 percent), while on the road it is 25-for-107 (23.4 percent).

2.  Washington’s penalty kill is just as consistent, just in another way.  While the power play has had equal numbers of opportunities, home and road, the penalty killers have allowed equal numbers of goals, home and road.  They have allowed 34 goals in 101 shorthanded situations at home (86.1 percent kill rate), 34 goals in 114 shorthanded situations on the road (82.5 percent).

3.  The Caps already have more 20-goal scorers this season (four) than they had last season (three).  Alex Ovechkin (41), T.J. Oshie (21), Evgeny Kuznetsov (20), and Justin Williams (20) are already there, and three more players have a reasonable shot at it – Nicklas Backstrom (18), Jason Chimera (17), and Marcus Johansson (15).  If all of them make it, this year’s team would tie the 2009-2010 team in the number of 20-goal scorers it had in the post-2004-2005 lockout era (seven).

4.  The Caps have 45 regulation and overtime wins this season.  They have 17 different players with game-winning goals.  Only the St. Louis Blues have as many players with game-winning goals this season.

5.  If suppressing opponent’s possession opportunities has meaning, the Caps have some shoring up to do at home.  Washington has allowed the eighth-most shot attempts per 60 minutes on home ice this season (55.1), by rounding just ahead of Edmonton (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Jordan Staal

With the balance of power among the Brothers Staal having shifted to New York at the trading dealine with Eric joining brother Marc in a trade from the Hurricanes, Jordan is the last remaining Staal in Carolina.  Jordan is under contract with the Hurricanes through the 2022-2013 season, which could mean that a Staal will have worn the red, black, and white of the franchise for 19 straight seasons (and no, that would not be close to the record for consecutive seasons for a brother act with one franchise; the Richards – Maurice and Henri – represented the Montreal Canadiens for 33 consecutive seasons).  Now in his fourth season in Carolina, Jordan has already tied his total points best for a season (40, set in 2013-2014) and has posted his best goal-scoring total (17).  The odd part of it is that he has had progressively lower average ice times over his four years in Carolina, averaging 20:06 in his first season, down to 18:03 going into Tuesday’s game.  He has been getting more time lately, topping the 20 minute mark in five of his last eight games, but he has just one point (a goal) to show for it.  Staal is 7-4-11, minus-5, in 36 career games against Washington.

Washington: Justin Williams

On a very deep team, Justin Williams has quietly put together a rather impressive season.  His 20 goals is the first time he reached that plateau since he had 22 with the Los Angeles Kings in 2011-2012 (for what it’s worth, the Kings won the Stanley Cup that season).  His 27 assists and 47 points are also personal highs since that 2011-2012 season.  His plus-19 is already a career best, topping the plus-15 he had in 2012-2013 with the Kings.  And, he might be ramping up for a strong stretch run.  He has points in his last three games, and his goal against San Jose on Saturday broke an 11-game streak of games without a goal.  His six shots on goal against the Sharks was a season high.  Williams is 4-8-12, minus-2, in 21 career games against the team than once employed his services.

In the end…

Washington is down to seven home games remaining in the season.  With 26 wins at home in 34 games they are within striking distance of the franchise record for home wins in a season (30, achieved in 1985-1986 and in 2009-2010).  They have been able to achieve their enviable home record by doing what they have done over all their games this season, avoiding consecutive losses in regulation time.  They lost their last game at home, a 3-2 loss to the New York Rangers, so this game represents an opportunity to avoid both consecutive losses in regulation at home and overall for the season.   There is also the matter of the Caps having lost – in regulation – to the Hurricanes in their last meeting back on New Year’s Eve. 

So think of this as an opportunity on several levels for the Caps to reassert themselves as a team that dominates in the win column and avoids losing streaks.   If the team doesn’t need such affirmation, it would make the rest of Capitals Nation happy.

Capitals 4 – Hurricanes 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 22

Week 22 was a cold splash of reality for the Washington Capitals as they took their annual trip to the west coast. They found out that in an 82 game season, no team is immune from an off week, even a team threatening to lap the field in the standings.

Record: 1-1-1

If you are going to put a bow on Week 22, it was just the third non-winning week (by standings points) for the Caps this season, and one of the others was a one-game week shortened by a game that was postponed due to Winter Storm Jonas in Week 16.  The week was spent entirely in the Pacific time zone, the Caps taking their annual California spin.  While we do not wish they all could be California games, the Caps having a history of struggles in the Golden State, this was the third consecutive season in which they did not post a losing record on their three-game sojourn.

If you are not inclined to dress this week up in a bow, then you realize that the Caps are now 5-4-1 in their last ten games.  As of Sunday morning, this is the 12^th-best ten-game record in the league (tied with Chicago, another team with Stanley Cup designs, so there is that).  Then there is the record against their cohort – playoff-eligible teams.  In their last 11 contests against teams currently eligible for the postseason, the Caps are 6-4-1.

Offense:  2.00/game (season: 3.16 /game; rank: 2nd)

Hitters go through slumps in baseball, shooters go through slumps in basketball, quarterbacks go through spells when they couldn’t hit the ocean from a boat with a pass.  So it is with hockey players.  There are times when the puck just doesn’t find its way to the back of the net.  So it was in Week 22 for Washington, which managed just six goals on 89 shots on goal for the week.  A 6.7 percent shooting week from a team with the likes of team goal-scoring leader Alex Ovechkin (no goals on 11 shots), second-ranked goal scorer (coming into Week 22) Evgeny Kuznetsov (no goals on seven shots), and Marcus Johansson (no goals on five shots; we will get to him in a moment) is unusual.  But better the slumps be dispatched now than having to deal with them a month from now.

Johansson is a bit of an odd case in Week 22.  All five of his shots on goal for the week came in the middle game, the 4-3 overtime loss to the Los Angeles Kings.  It was his second-highest shot total for the season, matching his five-shot effort (also with no goals) against Colorado on November 21^st and exceeded by a seven-shot game against Buffalo on December 30^th.  Johansson finished the week with no shots on goal in three of his last four games, and he had just nine shot attempts in more than 46 minutes of ice time, including those five shots on goal against Los Angeles.

Defense: 3.33/game (season: 2.34 /game; rank: 3rd)

Slow starts in Week 22 manifested themselves in high shot volumes in the first period.  The Caps were outshot overall by a 34-23 margin in the first 20 minutes of games, and this reflected the underlying possession numbers as well.  In the three first periods of the week, the Caps were out-attempted at 5-on-5 by a 50-38 margin (43.2 percent Corsi-for).  The Caps did do better in the final 40 minutes of games, allowing 23 shots in the second periods of the contests and 24 in the third periods, but they found themselves too often, as has been the case too often over the last month, letting teams dominate early in games.

The odd part of Week 21 with respect to those possession numbers is that over the three games, the total number of Corsi events per 60 minutes varied in a small range – 107.0 to 108.3, a little more than one shot attempt per 60 minutes across the three games.  The Caps were dominated in the split of those relatively equal numbers in two of the games, 61.7 to 46.6 attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 against Anaheim and 58.9 to 49.3 against San Jose.  They did much better in the middle game of the week, 60.5 to 46.5 against the Kings, the top possession team in the league (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

Goaltending: 2.90 /.894 (season: 2.22 / .922 / 2 shutouts)

Week 22 was not a good week overall for the goaltenders.  Usually, when there has been an off week, it was a case of Braden Holtby having a hiccup, but backup Philipp Grubauer doing well in relief.  This week, both netminders struggled to an extent.  Braden Holtby was 1-0-1 for the week, with a 2.34 goals against average and a .913 save percentage.  Philipp Grubauer finally had an off night afteralmost three months of solid play as a backup to or in relief of Holtby.  The four goals he allowed on 27 shots against San Jose in the last game of the week was the first time he allowed more than three goals in a contest since he allowed four goals on 18 shots against Florida on February 2^nd and just the second time he did so since allowing four goals on 23 shots in his first appearance of the season back on October 23^rd against Edmonton.

Holtby is more of a concern than Grubauer, though.  In his last 20 appearances he has a fine win-loss record of 13-4-2.  However, he has a goals against average of 2.89 and a save percentage of .901.  That save percentage is of particular concern.  Think of it this way.  There are 37 goalies this season to have logged more than 1,500 minutes of ice time.  Only one – Toronto’s Jonathan Bernier – has a save percentage lower than .901.

Power Play: 2-for-8 / 25.0 percent (season: 23.8 percent; rank: 2nd)

There was nothing particularly wrong with the power play in Week 22, but it came up short at the wrong times, specifically in the last game of the week in San Jose.  Overall, the Caps scored power play goals in two of the three games of the week (including that game in San Jose), extending a run in which they scored a power play to seven times in nine games (8-for-26/30.8 percent).

The Caps were efficient enough, recording two goals on 12 total power play shots on goal in 11:55 of power play ice time.  But there was an unevenness to it, too.  T.J. Oshie scored the only power play goals of the week on three total shots.  Alex Ovechkin was blanked on four shots on goal, and four other Caps came up empty on single shots apiece.

That game against San Jose was one that left a bad taste in one’s mouth with respect to the power play.  The Caps did score a 5-on-3 goal, their third 5-on-3 goal of the season.  However, they did not convert the ensuing 5-on-4, and they allowed a shorthanded goal on another power play.  Those were the momentum killers that kept the Caps from climbing all the way out of the holes they kept digging by falling behind the Sharks, and it helped send them to their only regulation loss of the week.

Penalty Killing: 7-for-9 / 75.0 percent (season: 84.2 percent; rank: 4th)

The Caps finished Week 22 under 80 percent on the penalty kill for the first time since Week 17 and for just the fourth time this season.  They allowed power play goals in the last two games of the week.  Not coincidentally, they came in losses.  In fact, the Caps have now lost the last four games in which they allowed a power play goal (0-3-1).

It was an efficient week for the penalty killers, who allowed opponents just nine shots on goal in 15:25 of shorthanded ice time.  And in neither instance of an opponent goal could it be a called a case of defensive breakdowns.  Against Los Angeles, an Alec Martinez shot hit a stick and two skates before finding the back of the net, and against San Jose it was more a case of goalie Philipp Grubauer misplaying a Joe Pavelski shot into a goal than a breakdown in front of him.  The penalty killers probably deserved a better fate than a 75 percent week.

Faceoffs: 72-for-175 / 41.1 percent (season: 49.5% / rank: 20th)

Woof!  The Caps were awful in the circle for the week.  They were below 50 percent in all three games, they were below 50 percent in all three zones, and no Capital taking ten or more draws finished the week above 50 percent.  The best they could manage in any game was 43.9 percent against the Kings.  The best they could manage in any zone was 45.5 percent in the offensive zone.  And, Nicklas Backstrom was the best the Caps could do among players with ten or more draws taken, finishing the week 23-for-54 (42.6 percent).  It was a grim week in this area of the game.

Goals by Period:

About those slow starts… recording no goals in any first period and allowing five goals to opponents made for a difficult week, always having to climb out of a hole.  Washington allowed at least one goal in the first period in each game of the week, part of a skid in which they have allowed the first goal of the game 13 times in 15 games and getting outscored in the first period by a combined 17-4 margin.

That the Caps eked out close positive differentials in the second and third periods did little to make up for the slow starts, but at least they continue to be dominant in those periods, finishing the week with goal differentials of plus-28 in the second period and plus-33 in the third period for the season.  The fact that they are a minus-6 in the first period is something that jumps out from the score sheet, though, and is perhaps the most important thing to be addressed as the Caps head into the final stages of the regular season.

In the end…

The Capitals are not the dominating team that they were over the first 50-60 games of the season.  Their last ten games have been plagued by slow starts and uneven goaltending.  Important players are in a bit of a rut – Alex Ovechkin and Braden Holtby being the noteworthy culprits here.  But they are hardly alone.  The third line of Marcus Johansson, Tom Wilson, and Jason Chimera had one point for the week, and that was a power play assist by Johansson.  That group has not had a goal since Wilson had one against Pittsburgh on March 1^st.  It is not a team that is firing on all cylinders lately.  One can wave this away with the thought that perhaps everyone is getting this out of their systems at the same time, and better now than in April.  But it will make next week one to watch with a measure of concern as the Caps have an opportunity to turn things around with a pair of home games.  The team with the league’s best home record (26-6-2) needs to take advantage of the schedule to get back on track.

Three Stars:

• First Star: T.J. Oshie (2-1-3, minus-2, 2 PPG, 9 shots on goal, 4 hits)
• Second Star: Nicklas Backstrom (1-1-2, minus-1, GW shootout goal, 7 shots on goal
• Third Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (0-3-3, even, 7 shots on goal)

Washington Capitals Recap: A NO-Point Night: Sharks 5 - Capitals 2

The Washington Capitals wrapped up their four-game road trip on Saturday night on an off-note, dropping a 5-2 decision to the San Jose Sharks.  It was a game in which the Caps never could quite seem to get traction, falling behind in the first period and finding themselves in a constant state of catch-up.  They did manage to tie the game twice after Sharks goals, but San Jose pulled away with a three-goal third –period.

The Caps found themselves a victim of a persistent problem over the last month – allowing the first goal and having a sluggish first period.  The Caps started decently enough, holding the Sharks to a 6-5 edge in shots and a 10-7 advantage in shot attempts over the first nine minutes and change, despite allowing a Sharks power play.  San Jose scored in that tenth minute, though, when Joe Thornton put back a rebound of a Brenden Dillon shot.

The Cap prevented any further first period damage, then they struck early in the second.  With Nick Spaling off for a high-sticking penalty taken late in the first period and Brent Burns joining him after taking a delay-of-game penalty 20 seconds into the second period, the Caps had a 5-on-3 advantage.  They worked the puck smartly around and through the San Jose defense, Alex Ovechkin sending a cross-ice pass to Nicklas Backstrom at the right wing wall then Backstrom threading a pass through the middle of the Sharks’ defense to a wide-open T.J. Oshie for a one-timer than he snapped past goalie Martin Jones at the 1:21 mark.

The Caps could not complete the power play advantage with a goal on the ensuing 5-on-4, but they did get another power play chance when Joe Thornton went off for boarding Dmitry Orlov 3:39 into the period.  The Caps managed just one shot on goal in the first minute and a half of the power play, then they got in their own way and gave the hosts  a shorthanded chance.  Marc-Edouard Vlasic slammed the puck from behind the net around and up the left wing boards where Orlov and Justin Williams were stationed for the Caps.  Neither could take possession of the puck, which suited Patrick Marleau just fine.  Marleau darted between them and started up ice, Joel Ward joining him on a two-on-none break.  Marleau gave up the puck to Ward at the Caps blue line, and Ward returned the puck to Marleau, who chipped it up and over goalie Philipp Grubauer’s pad for the shorthanded goal to make it 2-1, Sharks, 5:14 in the period.

Washington tied the game five minutes later on a bang-bang play.  Andre Burakovsky glided down the left wing with the puck, dropping it off for Evgeny Kuznetsov in the circle.  Kuznetsov took one step and ripped a pass to the top of the crease, where Williams was waiting to redirect it past Jones to make it 2-2 at the 10:12 mark.

Just before the end of the second period, the Caps had a chance to take the lead into the locker room when Jay Beagle, who was slashed by Brent Burns as he was closing on the Sharks’ net, was awarded a penalty shot.  Beagle’s attempt was poke-checked away by Jones, and the Caps had to be satisfied with going to the second intermission tied with the Sharks.

San Jose ended the competitive portion of the evening early in the third period, scoring a pair of goals barely two minutes apart in the first three minutes.   With Kuznetsov off for a hooking penalty he took late in the second period, the Caps were chasing the Sharks and the puck around in their own zone when Joe Thornton eased the puck down to Joe Pavelski, who had worked himself behind the Caps’ defense.  Pavelski lifted a backhand that Grubauer misplayed off the bottom of his blocker and into the net to give the Sharks the lead they would not relinquish a third time. 

With the echo of the goal horn still reverberating in the arena, the Sharks struck again, Brenden Dillon throwing a harmless looking shot from the top of the offensive zone that sailed through a screen and past Grubauer’s right shoulder to make it 4-2 just 2:51 into the period.

That goal took whatever fight was left in the Caps out of them, and the Sharks added an empty net goal by Burns in the final minute for the final 5-2 margin.

Other stuff…

-- The loss left the Caps 2-1-1 on their four-game road trip, which by most measures would be considered a successful trip.  However, the Caps are now 5-4-1 in their last ten games, have been out-scored by a 27-24 margin, and are just 25-for-31 killing penalties (80.6 percent).

-- How bad has it been lately?  When San Jose scored in the first period, it was the 13^th time in the Caps’ last 15 games they allowed the first goal of the game, and in that same span of games they have been outscored in the first period, 17-4.

-- Philipp Grubauer did not have a great game.  Maybe it was coming.  In his last dozen appearances he was 6-3-0 (three no-decisions), 1.60, .946.  This was just the third time in his last 13 appearances he allowed more than two goals and just the fourth time in that span that he allowed more than one.

-- After being shut out by the Sharks, Alex Ovechkin is now five games and counting without a goal, his longest drought of the season.

-- The Caps took it on the chin in the faceoff circle, winning just 21 of 58 draws (36.2 percent).  Take away Jay Beagle’s 6-for-8, and it looks a lot worse (30 percent).

-- An indicator that their heads might not have been in the game?  Justin Williams – not Alex Ovechkin – led the team with six shots on goal.  Jay Beagle was next with four. No other Cap had more than two.

-- Patrick Marleau’s shorthanded goal was the fourth allowed by the Caps this season.  Eight teams have allowed fewer.

-- Bad omen…. Yes, Matt Niskanen was getting to the end of a shift when he went behind the net in the first period to get the puck, and yes, he was nailed by Joe Thornton went he reached it.  But he took the long way around from behind the net, allowing Thornton to get inside position, and then when Thornton set up in front of Grubauer, Niskanen looked sluggish in engaging him.  It was a recipe to allow Thornton time to whack in a rebound for the game’s first goal.

-- Even the bright spot for the Caps in this game dimmed somewhat.  The Caps recorded a power play goal for the seventh time in nine games (8-for-26/30.8 percent), but their inability to convert the 5-on-4 after scoring at 5-on-3, and allowing a shorthanded goal on another power play shortly after the first 5-on-4 expired were momentum killers.

-- It has become a tired theme.  San Jose out-attempted the Caps at 5-on-5 in the first period, 23-16, and carried a 1-0 lead to the locker room.  The Caps did better in the second, finishing with a 16-9 edge in shot attempts and dominating the scoring chances by a 10-2 margin (5-0 in high-danger scoring chances).  What they could not do was close the deal in the third period, the Sharks finishing with a 17-9 edge in shot attempts, a 10-3 edge in scoring chances, and a 3-0 advantage in goals (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

In the end…

Don’t look now, but the Caps are pretty ordinary at the moment.  Five wins in their last ten games, getting outscored, possession not impressive (50.2 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5).  Over an 82-game season it is bound to happen, and this is still a team that has not lost consecutive games in regulation all year.  Then again, it took an herculean effort to claw back against the Kings with three third period goals in Los Angeles to gouge out a point in that game before last night’s loss in San Jose. 

Nine goals allowed in consecutive games ties the season high for the Caps (oddly enough, also in a 4-3 overtime loss and a 5-2 loss, to the Philadelphia Flyers on January 27^th and to the Florida Panthers on February 2^nd, respectively).  The Caps have a chance to get their heads on straight with a pair of home games next week before they head into a stretch of six road games in eight contests.  It’s time to put the indifferent-looking play of the last month behind them.