The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 29: Capitals at Hurricanes, December 16th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

In days gone by, the contest between the Washington Capitals and the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday night in Raleigh, North Carolina, would be a “Southeast Division Shootout” with playoff implications.  In the 14-year history of the division, either the Capitals or the Hurricanes won the division ten times, and the clubs finished one-two five times.

However, this contest pits two teams with different histories since the Southeast Division gave way to realignment and a new division in 2013-2014.  While the Caps have been competitive, winning the division once and finishing second once, the Hurricanes have finished out of the playoffs in each of their three Metropolitan Division seasons.  While there is hope for a better future in Carolina, this year the teams appear to be headed toward a similar fate that each realized over the past three years, the Caps a contender for the division title, the Hurricanes struggling to compete for a playoff spot.

Washington comes into this game on a five-game winning streak, tying their longest of the season.  Carolina comes into the contest lurching between wins and losses in December, going 3-2-2 for the month so far.  One of those wins does include an eight-goal explosion in an 8-6 win over the Vancouver Canucks in their last game on Tuesday night, the Hurricanes’ first game at home since spending six of their previous seven games on the road.

The month of December has been good to the Hurricanes' Derek Ryan.  In seven games this month, he is 3-6-9, even, to lead the Hurricanes in points.  It has been quite a ride for the second year forward who, before December, recorded only a goal and an assist in nine games.  The odd part of his recent production, at least as far as the goal scoring goes, is that Ryan is not a prolific shooter.  In 16 games this season he has not recorded more than two shots in any of them and has only 15 total shots.  Only three times in those 15 games has he managed as many as two shots on goal.  He also gets little ice time, only twice in 15 games topping the 15-minute mark.  Ryan is without a point in his only career appearance against the Caps, a 5-1 Hurricanes win on November 12^th.

Youth is also served in the Hurricanes’ second leading scorer in December.  Twenty-three year old Victor Rask, in his third season with Carolina, is 2-5-7 in seven games this month, including a three-point performance (1-2-3) in the 8-6 win over Vancouver on Tuesday.  It was Rask’s second straight multi-point game, coming on the heels of a two-assist game in a 4-3 loss to the San Jose Sharks last Saturday, and it was his fifth multi-point game of the season, one behind Jeff Skinner for the team lead.  Rask, 9-12-21 through 28 games in his third NHL season, is on a pace to set personal bests in goals (26), assists (35), and points (61).  He is 1-3-4, even, in nine career games against the Capitals.

Since he came into the league with such a splash in the 2005-2006 season, backstopping the Hurricanes to a Stanley Cup, only four goalies have appeared in more games than Cam Ward (Henrik Lundqvist, Roberto Luongo, Ryan Miller, and Marc-Andre Fleury). Those same four goalies are the only active goaltenders with more wins than Ward (278), but Ward has not been in the upper echelon of goaltenders for a few years now.  Since leading the NHL in appearances (74) and posting a career best .923 save percentage in 2010-2011, Ward ranks 29^th among the 50 goalies having appeared in at least 100 games in goals against average (2.59) and 36^th in save percentage (.911).   One explanation for this might be high shot volumes that place undue pressure on the goalie, but among that same group of goaltenders Ward ranks just 28^th in shots faced per 60 minutes (28.99).  In December, Ward is 2-1-2, 2.51, .914, with one shutout in six appearances, but his one no-decision came in Tuesday’s 8-6 win over Vancouver when he allowed three goals on 18 shots in 25:24 before giving way to Michael Leighton, who took the win.  Ward is 17-15-4, 2.58, .918, with four shutouts in 37 career appearances against the Caps.

1.  Carolina struggles putting teams away.  One aspect of this is their record when scoring three or more goals.  The Hurricanes are just 8-2-3 when scoring more than two goals.  Playoff contenders might be expected to do better than lose five of every 13 games when scoring three or more goals.

2.  Another aspect of those struggles deals with the Carolina power play.  Their record when recording at least one power play goal is 7-2-5.

3.  Carolina, the top penalty killing team in the league, has allowed power play goals in just six games this season, never allowing more than one man-advantage goal in any of them.   They are 2-3-1 in those games.  Of particular importance fort this game, no club has faced fewer shorthanded situations on home ice than the Hurricanes (28), and only the Arizona Coyotes have allowed as few power play goals on home ice as Carolina (three).

4.  Wins have come hard for Carolina, and not even scoring first – one of the best indicators of who wins and who loses in the NHL – helps the Hurricanes.  Their six wins in 13 games when scoring first is the fourth-worst winning percentage (.462) in the league.

5.  Carolina is among the better teams in possession.  Their overall Corsi-for at 5-on-5 ranks seventh in the league (52.38 percent), and their number on home ice is better (53.12/fourth in the league; numbers from Corsica.hockey).

1.  Since the New York Islanders shut out the Caps, 3-0, on December 1^st, the Caps have earned points in six straight games (5-0-1), including a five-game (and counting) winning streak.  Over that span, the Caps have outscored opponents by a 19-9 margin, have gone 7-for-21 on the power play (33.3 percent), and have killed 18 of 21 shorthanded situations (85.7 percent penalty killing).

2.  Justin Williams, who spent much of his first 24 games in a futile search for his scoring touch (two goals on 49 shots), might have been giving signs in that 24^th game, the3-0 shutout at the hands of the Islanders.  Williams had seven shots on goal in that game, and although he came up empty, like the rest of the team, he has four goals on ten shots in the Caps’ 5-0-1 run over their last six games.

3.  Evgeny Kuznetsov might claim his teammates as dependents on his 2016 income tax filing, if his last five games are an indicator.  He doesn’t have a goal, but he has seven assists in the five-game Caps winning streak, posting at least one in each contest.

4.  Marcus Johansson has matched Kuznetsov point for point with seven points (3-4-7) in the 5-0-1 run and nine points in his last nine games (5-4-9). 

5.  Braden Holtby is not too far off the performance pace he set last season in winning the Vezina Trophy.  Through 22 appearances in 2015-2016 he was 17-4-1, 1.95, .928, with one shutout.  Through 22 appearances this season, Holtby is 16-6-2, 2.08, .925, with two shutouts.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Teuvo Teravainen

He was the 18^th overall draft pick in the 2012 entry draft by the Chicago Blackhawks.  After another year spent in Finland as an amateur, he started making his way up the development ladder, playing the 2013-2014 season in Finland, then getting three games worth of experience with the Blackhawks in the regular season.   He played in 34 games the following season with the Blackhawks and 18 games in the postseason, where he had four goals and ten points.  Then it was a 78-game season in 2015-2016 that was his breakout year, going 13-22-35 for the Blackhawks. However, he recorded just one assist in the postseason for Chicago, and a couple of months later he was trading deep-dish pizza for barbecue, traded to the Hurricanes with Bryan Bickell for a second and a third round draft pick. 

It seemed a bit odd that a player drafted as highly as Teravainen would be traded for what looked like meager returns, and with another player to boot.  It might be Chicago’s version of the Caps’ Filip Forsberg adventure.  In his first year in Carolina, Teravainen has put up decent numbers (7-6-13), but not an improvement on the pace he set in his last year in Chicago.  He’s been streaky this season, posting points in three of his first five games, then going seven games without a point, posting points in four of five games a second time, then going eight games without a point.  He comes into this game with points in two of his last four contests (2-1-3), although oddly enough, he was one of the few players (one of six skaters) not to record a point in the 8-6 win over Vancouver on Tuesday.  In three career games against the Caps, Teravainen is 1-4-5, plus-1.

Washington:  Nate Schmidt

When John Carlson scored his first goal of the season in the Caps’ 4-1 win over the Buffalo Sabres last Thursday, and Matt Niskanen scored his first two goals of the season in the 4-2 win over the New York Islanders on Tuesday night, it left Nate Schmidt and Brooks Orpik as the only Capital defensemen playing in at least ten games without having scored a goal.  That Orpik would be without a goal is not surprising; he has only 16 goals in 850 career regular season games.  Schmidt, however, does have more in the way of offensive potential, and one might think that from a Caps’ fan perspective it is just a matter of time before Schmidt puts a crooked number on his line of the score sheet.  But he is really in a rut in the offensive end.  Schmidt has one point in his last ten games (an assist).  Over that span of games he has only ten shots on goal, half of them coming in the Caps’ 4-2 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs on November 26^th.  In seven career games against the Hurricanes, Schmidt is without a point and is minus-4.

In the end…

Three times this season the Caps have had a chance to avenge a loss in their next meeting with that opponent.  They lost to the Pittsburgh Penguins on Opening Night in a Gimmick, then pounded the Penguins into seal meal in the follow-up, a 7-1 win in mid-November.  They lost to the Columbus Blue Jackets in overtime on November 15^th, but the lost that follow-up, a 3-2 loss in regulation five days later.  Then there was the 3-0 shutout the New York Islanders pinned on the Caps on December 1^st, followed up with a 4-2 win in Brooklyn on Tuesday.  Now, the Caps get to do it again, looking to even the score after losing to the Hurricanes, 5-1, on November 12^th.

The Hurricanes might have their problems, but in two important respects they pose a challenge to the Caps, particularly in North Carolina.  They do not take very many penalties to put themselves down a man, and they are very efficient at killing the shorthanded situations they do face.  The Caps are among the better 5-on-5 teams in the league, and it might be here where the Caps are going to have to find answers to extend their winning streak to the longest one of the season.

Capitals 4 – Hurricanes 2

A TWO-Point Night -- Game 28: Washington Capitals 4 - New York Islanders 2

The Washington Capitals made it five wins in a row on Tuesday night with a 4-2 victory over the New York Islanders at Barclays Center in Brooklyn.  The win allowed the Caps to vault all the way to third place in the Metropolitan Division, pending the results of the Columbus/Edmonton game in Edmonton.  The win also matched the Caps’ longest winning streak of the season.

It was the Islanders opening the scoring in the first period, taking advantage of an aborted line change by John Carlson to allow Brock Nelson to skate into the Caps’ zone and unleash a shot that appeared to ever so slightly tick off Carlson’s stick and sail over goalie Braden Holtby’s left shoulder to make it 1-0, 9:32 into the contest.

The Islanders carried that lead into the first intermission, but the Caps struck early in the second.   Lars Eller outfought Johnny Boychuk to a loose puck at the New York blue line and skated in down the left side.  Brett Connolly charged down the middle to the net, calling for the puck.  Eller put it on his tape, and Connolly did the rest, beating goalie Jaroslav Halak at the 2:09 mark to tie the game.

Washington took the lead five minutes later when Justin Williams was credited with a goal from a pile-up in front of Halak (goal originally credited to Jakub Vrana).  A shot by Evgeny Kuznetsov from in close slithered through a clot of bodies and somehow made it to Vrana, who guided the puck to the net where it appeared to hit a body part of Williams for the goal 7:37 into the period.

New York tied the game mid-way through the period when the caught the Caps chasing things in their own end.  A loose puck pinballed its way out to Nick Leddy at the left point, and his shot was redirected by Nikolai Kulemin through the pads of Holtby to make it 2-2, 10:41 into the period.

The third period belonged to the Caps.  More precisely, it was The Matt Niskanen Show.  Niskanen gave the Caps the lead for good in the second minute of the period when, with the Islanders overloading the left side of the ice, Dmitry Orlov took a feed at the left point and relayed it to Niskanen on the right side.  Niskanen stepped up to the top of the faceoff circle and ripped a shot that clanged off the post and behind Halak to make it 3-2 just 1:34 into the third period.

Niskanen closed the scoring late in the period on a power play.  It was a set play with crisp passing, John Carlson at the right point sending the puck down the wall to Kuznetsov who sent it cross-ice to Niskanen at the left point.  Niskanen’s shot handcuffed Halak and lieaked through on the left side to trickle over the goal line at the 18:02 mark, and the Caps had their fifth straight win, 4-2.

Other stuff…

-- Matt Niskanen’s two goals marked the first time a Capital defenseman scored two goals in a game since John Carlson did it in a 4-3 loss to the Vancouver Canucks on December 2, 2014.  It was the first two-goal game for Niskanen since March 4, 2014 when he was skating for the Pittsburgh Penguins.

-- Nine different skaters had points for the Caps.  Niskanen, Jakub Vrana (two assists), and Evgeny Kuznetsov (two assists) had multi-point games.

-- Justin Williams had two goals on 52 shots over his first 24 games.  With his goal tonight, he has four goals on seven shots in his last four games.

-- Jay Beagle and Nate Schmidt were the only Caps not recording a shot on goal.  Niskanen led the team with six shots on goal.

-- The Caps held a 67-52 overall shot attempt advantage and 56-44 advantage (56.0 percent) at 5-on-5.  T.J. Oshie had an amazing Corsi-for/on ice differential, plus-13 in his 19 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time (numbers from Corsica.hockey).  Three other Caps were at plus-10: Dmitry Orlov, Nate Schmidt, and Marcus Johansson.

-- The Caps were 2-for-3 on the power play, giving them power play goals in five of their last six games, over which they are 7-for-21 (33.3 percent).

-- Washington held the Islanders without a shot on goal for the first 10:37 of the second period, part of a stretch in which the Islanders went 11:22 without a shot on goal going back to late in the first period.

-- With 26 saves on 28 shots faced, Braden Holtby is now 4-0-1, 1.56, .946, with one shutout in his last five appearances.

-- Jay Beagle was the only Capitals taking more than one faceoff who finished the night over 50 percent (13-for-19/68.4 percent).

-- Brett Connolly scored a goal on the only shot on goal he recorded.  That’s the second time this season he did that, scoring on his only shot on goal in a 3-1 win over the Csalgsary Flames on October 20^th.

In the end…

It was a solid road game for the Caps, who took a clinical approach to deconstructing the Islanders and dominating possession.  They got balanced scoring, displayed a solid defense, limited the Islanders in terms of both even strength and power play chances (two power plays, both of which where extinguished).  Now, having evened the score against the Islanders after the Isles shut out the Caps to open December, the Caps will get a chance to even another score when they visit Carolina on Thursday, looking to get even for a 5-1 licking the Hurricanes put on the Caps back on November 15^th.  All it "The Revenge Tour," and the Caps are 1-for-1 so far in one of their better-played games of the season.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 28: Capitals at Islanders, December 13th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

If it’s Tuesday, it must mean the Washington Capitals are playing.  Since the first of December, the Caps have played a game every other day, like clockwork, and the pattern continues on Tuesday night when they head to Brooklyn to face the New York Islanders.  The Caps, in the midst of a four-game winning streak, are 4-2-1 in December and take a 6-3-3 road record into the contest.  Their win in Buffalo last Friday night against the Sabres broke a four game losing streak away from Verizon Center (0-2-2).

The Islanders come into this contest with a nice record of their own over the past couple of weeks.  After going 6-10-4 over their first 20 games, New York is 5-1-1 over their last seven contests, including a 3-0 white-washing of the Caps on December 1st.  Those seven games have been, by current standards, almost fire wagon affairs, the Islanders averaging 3.24 goals per game and giving up 2.57 goals per game.   Special teams have run hot (penalty kill: 95.0 percent) and cold (power play: 10.5 percent) over that same span of contests.

If, over those seven games, you thought John Tavares would be the leading goal scorer and point getter, you would be right (4-3-7), but right there with him in goal scoring is Anders Lee (4-2-6).  After a slow start in which he recorded only one goal in his first 18 games of the season, Lee has seven goals over his last nine contests.  Two of those goals came on power plays, and he has two game-winning goals in that collection.  If there is an odd things about the eight goals that Lee has scored overall, it is that they are not a regular accompaniment to Islander wins.  New York is just 2-3-1 in the six games in which Lee recorded a goal this season.  In 11 career games against Washington, Lee is 4-1-5, plus-1.

Another name that shows up among the goal scoring leaders for the Islanders in this recent run is Jason Chimera.  He is another Islander shaking off a sluggish start.  After posting just one goal in his first 21 games this season, he scored goals in three of four games, including a goal against the Caps in the 3-0 win on December 1st.  Unlike Lee, however, all four of Chimera’s goals have come in Islander wins.  Perhaps fortunately for the Caps, he is without a point in his last two games.  He is 2-2-4, plus-3, in seven career games against the Caps.

Jaroslav Halak might have reclaimed his spot as the Islanders’ number one goaltender for the time being, but he is still searching for some consistency.  Halak, who has alternated wins and losses in his last five appearances, has yet to win consecutive decisions this season.  He does, however, have a four-game and a five-game losing streak on his record.  Only six times in 18 appearances this season has he allowed fewer than three goals, and he was lit up for six goals on 38 shots in his last appearance, a 6-2 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets last Saturday, when he was finally relieved with a little over five minutes left in the contest in favor of Jean-Francois Berube.  Halak is 7-6-0, 2.51, .908, with one shutout in his career against the Caps, the shutout coming in the 3-0 win on December 1st.

--The Islanders certainly have enjoyed a lot of home cooking in the first third of their season. Of the 27 games played so far, the Isles have skated 17 of them on home ice.

--  Not that home cooking has helped the Islanders in one respect. Their home power play (10.9 percent) is dead last in the league.  And while their penalty kill is respectable (83.0 percent), only three teams have been shorthanded more times on home ice than the Islanders (53 times) – the Winnipeg Jets (54 times), the St. Louis Blues, and the Montreal Canadiens (60 times apiece).

--  The Islanders are the only team in the league that has yet to win a game when trailing at the first intermission and when trailing at the second intermission of games. If the Isles trail at either, they lose, or so their history this season has unfolded.

--  And, if you outshoot the Islanders, chance are you will win. Only the Los Angeles Kings have fewer wins when outshot by opponents (three) than the Islanders (four).

--  The Islanders are a possession-challenged team on home ice. They rank 28th in the league in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (46.86 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey), the worst number in the Eastern Conference.

--  The Capitals will be looking for their fifth straight win, which would tie them with their season-best, a five-game winning streak in Games 7-11.

--  The Caps are 10-for-46 on the power play in their last 12 games (21.7 percent). This could be a good sign; the Caps are 10-1-1 in the 12 games in which they scored a power play goal this season.

--  On the other hand, the penalty kill has seen some cracks. It is 31-for-38 (81.6 percent ) over the last ten games.  Washington is 10-2-1 this season when shutting out opponents on their power play.

--  Washington has not lost a game this season when scoring more than two goals. They are 15-0-0 in those games.  Conversely, they have not lost a game in regulation when allowing two or fewer goals (not counting Gimmick goals), posting a record of 14-0-3 in those games.  First to three wins.

--  The Caps rank eighth in the league in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 in road games (51.98 percent; numbers form Corsica.hockey). Take the blocked shots out, and things are different.  Washington ranks 14th in Fenwick-for at fives (49.94 percent).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Josh Bailey

Josh Bailey is one of those players who isn’t going to get a basket full of accolades, but he is a consistent and dependable player.  In six career seasons in which he appeared in at least 70 games, he failed to reach the 30-point mark once (28 points in 70 games in 2010-2011).  He doesn’t really shoot that much (1.48 shots per game in his career), but he has a respectable 11.3 percent career shooting percentage, although he is somewhat below that so far this season (9.3 percent).  He has been productive of late, going 2-4-6 in the Islanders’ recent 5-1-1 run.  If he scored more, he might be in the running for the Lady Byng Trophy.  Bailey has just two penalty minutes in 27 games and more than 500 minutes of ice time this season.  He has not taken a penalty minute on home ice in 24 contests dating back to last season and has just two penalty minutes in his last 43 home games.  Bailey is 4-8-12, minus-8, in 33 career games against Washington.

Washington: Brooks Orpik

Remember when Brooks Orpik was one of the big boppers among defensemen?  Well, this season he seems to be taking on, if not a more sedate role, then one of overseer of the defensive end as his partner – Dmitry Orlov, Nate Schmidt, or someone else – jumps up into the play.  Among defensemen appearing in at least 15 games, Orpik ranks just 25th in hits per game.  Some of that is, no doubt, a product of the Caps’ good possession numbers, but it might reflect something of a changing role, too.  On the other side, Orpik does not have a goal yet, which is not unusual given his history, but he is on pace to finish with 18 assists, which would be within striking distance of his best total as a Capital (19 assists in 2014-2015) and the second highest total of his career (he had 23 helpers in 2009-2010).  Orpik is 3-11-14, plus-6, in 67 career games against the Islanders.  The goals, assists, and points are the most Orpik has against any opponent in his career.

In the end…

The Islanders are hardly a pushover at the moment, but the Capitals should have motivation for the way they were handled by the Islanders on home ice not two weeks ago.  One would think returning the favor would be on their minds.  As was the case in that game, the Caps will face a team with a very uncertain and unsettled goaltending situation.  It did not stop Jaroslav Halak from posting a shutout, and it goes to show that there are no gimmies in the NHL.  If the Caps want to keep pace with a Metropolitan Division that is showing itself to be the strongest division in the league, they will have to do far more “taking” than “giving” to make up for that disappointing performance on December 1st.

Capitals 3 – Islanders 1

A TWO-Point Night -- Game 27: Washington Capitals 3 - Vancouver Canucks 0

A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away…ok, a couple of hours ago, the Washington Capitals defeated the Vancouver Canucks, 3-0, on “Star Wars Night” at Verizon Center.  There was a lot of skating, not much scoring, and little (if any) in the way of physical play.  But the Caps did enough to subdue the Canucks for their fourth straight win.

Alex Ovechkin started the scoring mid-way through the first period when, on a power play, he took a pass from John Carlson, cradled it in the curve of his stick, and rifled a shot past goalie Jacob Markstrom on the short side at the 13:46 mark.

The Caps could not expand on that lead through the rest of the first period and the entirety of the second period, but Justin Williams got the Caps some insurance in the final frame.  It started with Williams scooping up a loose puck along the left wing wall in the Vancouver end and chipping it to Dmitry Orlov at the left point.  Orlov fired a shot that Markstrom blockered away to his right where Ovechkin picked it up.  Ovechkin centered the puck to Evgeny Kuznetsov, who one-timed a pass back to the weak side where Williams was closing toward the net.  From low in the left wing circle, Williams snapped a shot high over Markstrom’s blocker, and it was 2-0, 5:06 into the period.

That would be all for the competitive portion of the contest, Tom Wilson getting an empty net goal with 51.1 seconds left to give the Caps their final 3-0 margin.

Other stuff…

“Now, witness the power of this fully operational battle station.”  The Ovechkin power play goal was the Caps’ fifth power play goal in five games, over which they are 5-for-18 (27.8 percent).  It extends a productive run in which the Caps are 10-for-46 over their last 12 games (21.7 percent), eight of those games featuring power play goals.

“Hmm! Adventure. Hmmpf! Excitement. A Jedi craves not these things.”  Well, maybe not too much adventure.  This was Vancouver’s third game in four days and the fourth game in a five-game road trip.  It was a team that might have been ripe for the taking, but the game devolved into a tepid affair that suited the Canucks more than it did the Caps.  Give credit to the Caps for not succumbing to that situation.

“It’s not impossible. I used to bullseye womp rats in my T-16 back home, they’re not much bigger than two meters.”  Good for Tom Wilson getting the empty netter at the end.  It was a nice reward for a solid game killing penalties.  It is a part of his game that has developed remarkably over the last season, far more than one might have envisioned for him. 

“Stay on target…STAY ON TARGET…”  The Caps had 29 shots on goal, 29 shots attempts that did not make it to the net (15 blocked, 14 misses).  Vancouver had 20 shots on goal, 21 that did not make it to the net (10 blocked, 11 misses).

“I find your lack of faith…disturbing.”  A week ago, the Caps were nursing the wounds of a three-game losing streak, and there were grumblings in Capitals Nation.  With this win, they are on a four-game winning streak, their third streak of three wins or more this season.

“Traveling through hyperspace ain’t like dustin’ crops, boy!”  Jakub Vrana had a couple of excellent chances to add to his goal total after scoring his first NHL in his last outing.  He was unable to connect, but his four shots on goal and seven attempts brought to mind visions of a young sniper like Peter Bondra of 25 years ago.

"Master Kenobi, you disappoint me. Yoda holds you in such high esteem. Surely you can do better!” Lars Eller… 1-for-11 in the faceoff circle.  Tough night.

“Do. Or do not. There is no try.”  Five shorthanded situations, 10 minutes of shorthanded ice time, one shot allowed, and that one came on the last power play.  The Caps held the Canucks without a shot on goal over their first 9:23 of shorthanded ice time.

“Somebody has to save our skins.”  After a four-game slump in which he allowed at least three goals in each game, goalie Braden Holtby is 3-0-1, 1.45, .950 over his last four games after the 20-save shutout over the Canucks.  It was his 25^th career shutout.  He is one of ten goalies with 25 or more shutouts since the 2010-2011 season, Holtby’s first.

“Remember: Your focus determines your reality.”   The Caps did dominate the 5-on-5 possession numbers, recording 41 total shot attempts to 30 for the Canucks (57.75 percent Corsi-for; numbers from Corsica.hockey).

In the end…

“The force is strong with this one...”  For one night, anyway, the Caps were a team that were in control of the game throughout, especially on defense, where they seemed not to anticipate as much as know what the Canucks were trying to do (letting the Force flo-o-o-ow through them, as Yoda might say...getting tired of the Srar Wars references?).  In that respect they did take advantage of the Canucks having played three games in four nights, not making the big, galactically stupid mistake that would give the opponent life and let them back in the game.  If the offense isn’t blowing up opponents like the Death Star blowing up Alderaan, then the defense was frustrating the Canucks like a tribe of Ewoks frustrating a brigade of Imperial Stormtroopers.  And that is a formula for the Rebels celebrating a victory over the Empire.

May The Force be with you...

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 9

After a disappointing Week 8, the Washington Capitals rebounded with a perfect week in the win-loss record in Week 9.  It was not obtained easily, nor did it come without a price that, hopefully, will not exact too much of a toll in the days to come.

Record: 3-0-0

For the second time this season and first time since Week 4, the Capitals recorded a perfect week.  Not that it was accompanied by any significant movement in the standings.  The Caps finished Week 8 in fourth place in the Metropolitan Division, four points behind the New York Rangers with three games in hand, and sixth in the Eastern Conference.  At the end of Week 9 they are in fifth place in the Metropolitan Division, trailing the New York Rangers, Pittsburgh Penguins, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Philadelphia Flyers, although the Caps have at least two games in hand on all except Columbus (both played 26 games so far).  Not playing against a divisional opponent hurt the Caps’ chances to advance, but their 2-4-2 record against the division does not inspire a lot of confidence, either.  They did face two Atlantic Division opponents (Buffalo twice, and Boston), and with the wins in all three games have a record of 7-1-1 against that division through Week 9.

Offense:  3.67/game (season: 2.65 /game; rank: 13th)

Balance and volume.  That was certainly missing in Week 8, when Nicklas Backstrom recorded the only goal of the week.  In Week 9, eight Caps shared in the 11 goals, and 13 skaters recorded points.  Marcus Johansson had three goals and a pair of assists, one of the goals an overtime game-winner in the first game of the week, a 3-2 win over the Buffalo Sabres.  One of his assists came on the overtime game-winning goal scored by Nicklas Backstrom in the Caps’ 4-3 win over the Boston Bruins in the middle game of the week.

Evgeny Kuznetsov gave signs that he is coming out of the slump that he has been in for most of the season.  He had four assists in the three games, posting at least one in each game of Week 9.  It is the first time he had points in three consecutive games since he had single points (1-2-0) in Games 3-5 of the season back in October.

There were a couple of noteworthy firsts for the Caps in the offensive end for the week.  John Carlson scored his first goal of the season in the game to end the week against the Buffalo Sabres, ending a 26-game streak without a goal to open the season, and Jakub Vrana recorded his first NHL goal in the 4-1 win over the Sabres to end the week, the goal also being credited as the game-winner in that contest.

Defense: 2.00/game (season: 2.19 /game; rank: 5th)

Minimizing shots has been a hallmark of the Caps’ season thus far, but they have fallen off a bit in that regard in recent games.  Only six times in 23 games over the first eight weeks did the Caps allow an opponent more than 30 shots.  The sixth time was in tbe second and last game of Week 8.  The Caps followed that up by allowing the Sabres and Bruins 33 and 34 shots, respectively, in the first two games of the week.  That made it five times in six games that the Caps allowed an opponent more than 30 shots, and they averaged  33 shots allowed per game in that span.  Washington got things under more control in the game to end the week, allowing the Sabres only 28 shots in their second meeting of Week 9, in Buffalo.

The Caps had an iffy possession week.  While they finished just under 50 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (48.9 percent), it was a case of two good games (51.9 percent and 55.9 percent in the two games against Buffalo) against a poor game against Boston (41.2 percent).

The price that the Caps paid for a good week in the defensive end was losing defenseman Matt Niskanen to an upper body injury when he was run into the end boards by Boston's Patrice Bergeron late in the first period of the Caps' 4-3 overtime win in the middle game of the week (Bergeron was assessed a penalty on the play).  The game he missed against the Sabres to close Week 9 was the first game he missed as a Capital, snapping a streak of 107 games played.  Niskanen is officially listed as "day-to-day," but no timetable has been offered for his return.

Goaltending:   1.97/ .937 (season: 2.07 / .927 / 2 SO)

The depth of the Capitals’ goaltending was on full display in Week 9.  Braden Holtby won both of the games played to overtime, and Philipp Grubauer wrapped up the week with a solid win in Buffalo.  The save percentages were solid across the periods for the week - .962 in the first period, .919 in the second period, and .935 in the third frame.  Holtby stopped 60 of 64 shots for the week for a .938 save percentage, while Grubauer turned away 29 of 31 shots against the Sabres to finish at .935.  That kind of consistency, especially in getting consistent and reliable relief from Grubauer, had been an important ingredient to the Caps’s success so far this season.  Through nine weeks, Holtby has a save percentage of .923, and Grubauer is at .940.  The Caps and the Chicago Blackhawks (with Corey Crawford and Scott Darling) are the only teams in the league with two goalies having played at least 250 minutes and with save percentages over .920.  Grubauer is eighth in the league among goalies with at least 150 5-on-5 minutes in save percentage (.944), while Holtby is 11^th (.941; numbers from Corsica.hockey).

Power Play: 3-for-8 / 37.5 percent (season: 16.7 percent; rank: 16th)

Three power play goals for the week ties the season high for power play goals in a week, and the 37.5 percent success rate is the best through nine weeks for the Caps.  Not that the Caps were especially efficient in achieving this outcome.  They had just nine shots on goal in 11:34 of total power play time.  Six players had as many as two shots – Marcus Johansson, John Carlson, and Jakub Vrana.  It might not be coincidence that these three players were the goal scorers for the week on the man advantage.  The odd part of the outcome was the week for Alex Ovechkin.  Despite playing 9:33 of the 11:34 of power play time for the week, Ovechkin managed only one power play shot on goal.  He has now gone seven games without a power play goal and, with just four power play goals on the season, is on a pace to finish with 13 man advantage goals, which would be the fewest he had in a regular season since he finished with 13 power play goals in 2011-2012, the last season he did not lead the league in power play goals (including the abbreviated 2012-2013 season, when he had 16 in 48 games).

It might be important to keep in mind, too, that the Caps built their power play success this week on a team with a poor penalty killing record.  They played the Buffalo Sabres twice, a team that came into the week with the 29^th-ranked penalty kill in the league.  The Caps were 3-for-6 against the Sabres, with eight shots on goal in 8:44 of power play ice time.  Against the Boston Bruins, the third-ranked penalty kill when they took the ice against the Caps, Washington was 0-for-2 and had just one shot on goal in 2:50 of ice time.

Penalty Killing: 9-for-11 / 80.0 percent (season: 82.4 percent; rank: 14th)

One area of concern in recent weeks has been the Caps’ propensity to take penalties and face shorthanded situations.  The Caps appeared to begin addressing that problem in Week 8 with just five power plays allowed in two games.  They permitted only three apiece to the Sabres and Bruins in the first two games of Week 9.  And when the Caps allowed the Sabres only two power plays through 40 minutes in the third game of the week, it looked as if it would be another stingy week.  However, Washington committed three minor penalties in the space of 8:37 of the third period while holding a 2-0 lead.  It could have been a disaster.  The Caps killed off the first two of the ensuing shorthanded situations, but they yielded a Kyle Okposo power play goal on the third to allow the Sabres back into the game.

The five power plays the Caps allowed to the Sabres made it 11 for the week, and with them was a lot of shorthanded ice time recorded.  But even with that, there was a certain efficiency in the penalty killing.  Washington allowed opponents 14 shots on goal in 11 power plays covering 20:34 of ice time.  Even the Okposo power play goal in the third of three straight Sabre power plays came with just 24 seconds left on the Buffalo man advantage.  And there is another curious shot statistic coming out of the week in penalty killing.  The Caps had five shorthanded shots on goal in 15:36 of shorthanded ice time against the Sabres for the week (Buffalo had ten shots on goal in that same span of time).

Faceoffs: 84-for-167 / 50.3 percent (season: 51.1% / rank: 10th)

A week that might be described as uninteresting in the circle was anything but.  First, the 50.3 percent overall mark masks the fact that the Caps lost the offensive (47.2 percent) and defensive (48.1 percent) zones for the week.  Then there was the usual (Jay Beagle finished with a 65.2 percent win mark) and the unusual (Evgeny Kuznetsov finished the week 51.2 percent to the good).  And then there was the odd outcome in the second game against the Sabres to close the week.  Perhaps it was a specific attempt to protect a player, and perhaps it was just circumstance, but Beagle took 20 draws against the Sabres overall (going an amazing 16-for-20).  Of those 20 faceoffs, 15 were taken in the defensive zone (he won 13).  On the other hand, Kuznetsov took 12 total draws in that game but none of them in the defensive zone.  Beagle and Kuznetsov were the only Caps taking at least ten faceoffs for the week to win more than half of them.

Goals by Period:

The Caps won the week in every period, including overtime, in which they scored two game-winners.  This is a hopeful sign in two respects, both with respect to goals allowed.  First, the Caps allowed just one first period goal for the week.  With it, the Caps became the last team in the league to allow a tenth first period goal this season, and they finished the week with the fewest such goals in the league.  Second, the Caps allowed just two third period goals.  That does not sound quite as impressive, but the Caps have been a middle-of-the-road performer in this regard for much of the season.  A third period power play goal allowed to Boston did cost the Caps a victory in regulation time (they won in overtime), and they did allow 31 shots on goal in the third period over the three games, but their third period performance did evidence a bit of a tightening up.

In the end…

A 3-0-0 week is not to be sneered at, but neither should it be revered as a return to dominance by the Caps.  Twice they beat a young, struggling team, and they took advantage of a goalie against whom they have had unusual success (Boston’s Tuukka Rask gave up four goals on 20 shots and finished the week with a record against the Caps of 1-8-5, 3.00, .894, with one shutout).  On the other hand, one could say the Caps ground out six very important standings points, given that the teams ahead of them in the Metropolitan Division standings went a combined 11-1-0 for the week.  The 3-0-0 record meant only that the Caps were able to tread water in the standings, but they do have at least two games in hand on three of the four teams ahead of them (Columbus has played in the same number of games – 26).  The trick is to make those games in hand count, and with a four-game week coming up in Week 10 (including a back-to-back to close it), that is the next task on the to-do list.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Marcus Johansson (3-2-5, plus-2, game-winning/OT goal, points in all three games)
• Second Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (0-4-4, plus-1, points in all three games, 51.2 faceoff winning percentage, six shots on goal)
• Third Star: Jakub Vrana (first NHL goal, a game-winner, five shots on goal, two hits, a blocked shot in 11 minutes per game)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 27: Canucks at Capitals, December 11th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return home on Sunday after a brief trip to upstate New York, hosting the Vancouver Canucks at 5:00 pm at Verizon Center.  It will be the Caps' first contest against a Western Conference club since they beat the St. Louis Blues, 4-3, back on November 23^rd.  It will also be the second and final meeting of the season between the clubs, the Caps winning the first meeting, 5-2, in Vancouver on October 29^th. 

Washington comes into this game looking to extend a three-game winning streak to four, which would make it the longest winning streak of the season since the Caps peeled off five straight wins form October 29^th through November 5^th, a streak that started with that win in Vancouver.  On the other hand, the Canucks have struggled ever since they opened the season with a four-game winning streak.  Since that big open, Vancouver is 8-13-2, and they are wobbling back and forth lately, largely alternating wins and losses over their last 14 games (8-5-1).

The Canucks have struggled to score goals (26^th in the league in scoring offense), reflected in the fact that they have yet to have a player reach the ten-goal mark, one of ten teams without one to date. Daniel Sedin and Bo Horvat lead the team with eight goals apiece.  Daniel Sedin, the goal-scoring left wing half of the Brothers Sedin, is closing in on a personal milestone.  Although he has 363 career goals, 134 more than his twin brother Henrik, he needs just three assists to reach the 600-assist mark.  When he reaches that mark, he will be just the second player in Canuck history to reach 600 assists, brother Henrik having already passed that mark (758).  Sedin comes into this game with goals in two of his last three games and points in four of his last five contests (2-3-5).  In 17 career games against the Caps, Daniel Sedin is 7-6-13, plus-3.

While Daniel Sedin is skating in his 16^th NHL season, Bo Horvat is in the midst of just his third season in the league.  The former ninth-overall draft pick (2013) is still looking for his breakout year, but his eight goals this season is half way to his career best 16 goals set last season in 82 games, and he is on a pace to finish with 24 goals.  One area in which Horvat’s numbers have improved immensely is in his plus-minus figures.  Last season, Horvat finished 897^th of 898 skater having dressed for at least one game with a minus-30 (Mikkel Boedker was minus-33 with two teams).  This season, he is just minus-1 through 27 games and hasn’t had a “minus” game in three weeks (minus-1 in a 4-3 overtime loss to the Chicago Blackhawks on November 19^th).  In the eight games since in which he played, Horvat is 2-4-6, plus-3, although he will come into this game on a four-game streak without a point, pending Vancouver’s game against the Florida Panthers on Saturday night.  Horvat is 1-2-3, minus-2, in four career games against the Caps, his goal coming in the Canucks’ 5-2 loss to the Caps last October.

Vancouver has gone through nine defensemen so far this season, only three of them appearing in all 27 games through Friday.  One of the three is Ben Hutton, who happens to lead the blueliners in goals scored (three) and is tied for the lead among defensemen in points (seven, with Luca Sbisa).  Those three goals are a career high for the second-year defenseman (he had one last season), but his seven points lag behind the pace he set in his rookie season (25 points in 75 games).   His offense has perked up a bit lately, though.  After going 1-1-2, minus-9, in his first 17 games, Hutton is 2-3-5, minus-2, in his last 10 contests.  He is without a point and is minus-2 in three career games against Washington.

1.  Of the eight Vancouver wins in their last 14 games, four of them have come in extra time, two of them in the Gimmick.

2.  Of the nine defenseman the Canucks have employed this season, all of them have at least one point.  Even Alex Biega, with just two games played so far, has an assist.

3.  No team has fewer wins when scoring first in games than the Canucks.  Their five wins are tied with Carolina and Colorado going into Saturday’s games.  Worse, Vancouver has scored first only eight times in 27 games.  Only the Avalanche have done so fewer times (seven in 25 games).

4.  The Canucks are very much a Jekyll and Hyde team.  On the one hand, they have a total of 80 minor penalties this season, third-fewest in the league (tied with Carolina).  On the other hand, they have 13 fighting majors, third-most in the league.

5. Vancouver is not a bad possession team, but neither are they a good one.  Their 49.29 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 ranks 19^th in the league.  They rank 21^st in Corsi-for on the road (47.52 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey).

1.  Going into Saturday’s games, the Caps had 35 standings points, one of six teams in the East with that many or more.  The misfortune of the Caps was to be in the Metropolitan Division, which had five of those six teams.

2.  Only the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Rangers have fewer fighting majors (two apiece) than the Caps (three, tied with four other teams).

3.  If faceoff volumes are an indicator of game flow, the Caps don’t suffer many stoppage that result in faceoffs.  Only five teams have taken fewer draws than the Caps so far this season.

4.  The three-goal win by the Caps over Buffalo on Friday night was the first time the Caps won by three or more goals since beating Pittsburgh, 7-1, on November 16^th.   Of the Caps’ six wins since that game, four of them have been by one-goal (two in overtime).

5.  Adjusted for score and venue, the Caps have the second-best Corsi-for at 5-on-5 in the league (53.44 percent), trailing only the Boston Bruins (54.56 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Vancouver:  Canuck Goaltenders

On Thursday, Ryan Miller took himself out of the game against the Tampa Bay Lightning due to what was reported as an ankle injury.  It left his availability for the weekend games in Florida and in Washington in doubt.  With back-to-back games on the weekend schedule, the Canucks recalled Thatcher Demko from the Utica Comets of the AHL in the eventuality that Jacob Markstrom could not play both sides of the back-to-back set of weekend contests.  Markstrom played only six minutes in the 5-1 win over the Lighting, but appearances in three games in four days, especially when the back-to-backs are on the road with starting times only 22 hours apart appears to be a stretch (Markstrom got the start against Florida on Saturday night).  Then there is the fact that Markstrom is just 3-2-1, 3.35, .882, in his last seven appearances.

Demko is an interesting case.  He is in his first professional season after a fine career with Boston College.  In three seasons at the collegiate level he won 62 games and in his last season posted a 1.88 goals against average with a .935 save percentage.   In 14 games with the Utica Comets he was 7-5-1, 2.59, .909.  Perhaps having the parent club’s situation on his mind, he allowed four goals on 28 shots in a 4-3 loss to the Binghamton Senators on Friday night.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

Surely you remember Alex Ovechkin.  Seven-time 50-goal scorer, six-time Maurice Richard winner, the greatest goal scorer of this generation.  At the moment, though, Ovechkin is tied for 11^th in the league in goals scored (12), one of those players being teammate Marcus Johansson.  And, he has gone seven games without a goal, his longest streak since he went eight games without a goal in Games 30-37 of the 2010-2011 season (perhaps not coincidentally, the season in which he scored the fewest goals in his career -32).  His shot frequency is a bit off in this streak his 24 shots working out to an average of 3.43 per game, and only once – in Friday’s game against Buffalo – did he have more than four shots on goal after having more than four shots on goal in eight of his first 19 games.  His power play goal scoring has dropped off considerably, too, with just four power play goals for the season (tied for 17^th) and only two in 16 games since November 5^th.  Ovechkin is 6-2-8, minus-5, in 13 career games against the Canucks.

In the end…

Three straight wins is a good thing, but two of those wins came in overtime, and the third was one-goal game 14 minutes into the third period.  It has been almost a month since the Caps had a truly dominating performance that left do room for doubt in the third period, that being the 7-1 win over the Penguins on November 16^th.  Since that lopsided win, the Caps are 6-3-1 in ten games, but they are doing it with defense and goaltending.   The 2.4 goals per game the Caps are scoring are being supported by a 2.1 goals per game scoring defense.  If the Caps can cobble together more, and more consistent offense, they could go on a nice run.  However, ten games at this scoring pace is a good chunk of the season, too.  The Caps can raise that scoring number, but to expect it to happen might not be a well-founded thought at the moment.  Perhaps facing a team with an unsettled goaltending situation will provide a remedy.

Capitals 5 – Canucks 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 26: Capitals at Sabres, December 9th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

On Friday night, for the third time in a space of seven games and 15 days, the Washington Capitals and Buffalo Sabres will face one another.  The difference in this third meeting is that it will take place in Buffalo at MarineMidlandHSBCFirstNiagaraKeyBank Center.  The Capitals won the first two meetings at Verizon Center, 3-1 on November 25^th and 4-2 in overtime last Monday.

There is little to report since the last time these teams were about to face one another.  Both clubs played one game since that meeting, and both teams eked out 4-3 overtime victories at home.  Washington beat the Boston Bruins on a Nicklas Backstrom strike in the extra period,  and the Sabres knocked off the Edmonton Oilers on Rasmus Ristolainen’s first goal of the season. 

While there hasn’t been much movement in the standings by either of these teams over the past four days, there are a few random facts we can offer up.

-- Buffalo lacks for scoring (30^th in the league in scoring offense), but they have more goal scorers this season (15) than the Caps (14).

-- Rasmus Ristolainen finally got his first goal after going 25 games without one, and with 16 points on the season he has almost as many points as the rest of the Sabres’ defensemen combined (17, spread among four defensemen).

-- Capital defensemen have not scored many goals, but Sabre defensemen have fewer goals on their record this season.  Ristolainen’s goal was only the second goal by a Buffalo defenseman this season.  Cody Franson has the other one.

-- The Sabres allowed the Oilers a pair of power play goals in their 4-3 overtime win.  That makes five games in six that the Sabres have allowed at least one power play goal, and they are just 11-for-19 killing penalties over that span (57.9 percent).

-- Buffalo does not do a very good job in the trade off of taking and drawing minor penalties.  Their differential of minor penalties taken and drawn per 60 minutes ranks 25^th in the league (minus-0.15)

-- When the Caps beat Boston on Wednesday night, it was their 15^th win in their 25^th game this season.  It is just the fifth time in team history that the Caps reached the 15 win mark in 25 or fewer games.  The seasons at the 25-game mark:

• 2016-2017: 15-7-3
• 2015-2016: 18-5-2
• 2010-2011: 17-6-2
• 1991-1992: 18-7-0
• 1985-1986: 15-7-3

While four of this year's wins (and three of last year's at the 25-game mark) came in extra time, with different rules than the pre-2004-2005 lockout era, it is still an accomplishment worth noting.

-- The four goals the Caps scored against Boston was as many as they had in their previous three games combined, and it was the first time in six games that they scored more than three goals, dating back to their 4-3 win over St. Louis on November 23^rd.

-- After 25 games last season the Caps allowed 55 goals. This year, through 25 games, that number is 56 goals. The bigger difference in is goals scored, where the Caps have scored just 65 goals through 25 games to date compared to 78 through 25 games last season, a drop of more than half a goal per game.

-- Only six teams have failed to win in the trick shot phase of the game, the Caps being one of them having lost both of their appearances so far.  Then again, only the New York Rangers and Colorado Avalanche have appeared in fewer freestyle competitions (one apiece).

-- There are 169 forward combos that have skated at least 50 minutes together at 5-on-5.  Of that group, the Capitals combo with the most minutes together is the Daniel Wionnik/Jay Beagle/Tom Wilson trio that has 69.5 5-o-5 minutes together, ranking 103^rd.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Buffalo: Evander Kane

Evander Kane has had an odd last four seasons.  And that is not “odd” in a good or charming way.  In 2012-2013 with the Winnipeg Jets he appeared in every game (the only time he has appeared in every game in his eight-year career), and went 17-16-33, a respectable 29-27-56 pace per 82 games.  Since then, however, his durability and production have been in decline: 19-22-41 in 69 games in 2013-2014, 10-12-22 in 37 games in 2014-2015, and 20-15-35 in 65 games last season, his first with the Sabres.  This season, Kane is just 3-4-7 in 15 games, having missed 11 games to a cracked rib.  His injury issues over the years make it a bit less remarkable that the former fourth-overall draft pick (2009) has only one 30-goal season on his resume (with Winnipeg in 2011-2012).  He might be getting on a run, though.  Kane has points in four of his last five games (3-2-5) and is seven straight games an even or plus player.  In 26 career games against the Caps, Kane is 11-6-17, minus-3.

Washington: John Carlson

John Carlson’s goal scoring over the course of his seven seasons preceding this one have not quite been a straight line of improvement, but it has been close.  His goals per game over those years look like this:

• 2009-10: 0.05
• 2010-11: 0.09
• 2011-12: 0.11
• 2012-13: 0.13
• 2013-14: 0.12
• 2014-15: 0.15
• 2015-16: 0.14

So far this season he has a nice round number: 0.00.  He has not lacked for shooting the puck, though.  He is on a pace to finish the season with 200 shots on goal, which would be his second highest career season total (208 in 82 games in 2013-2014).  It is part of a long dry spell for Carlson, who has just two goals on 107 shots (1.9 shooting percentage) over his last 51 games.  He does have ten assists, which ranks in the top-20 among defensemen going into Thursday’s games, and his four power play assists ranks in the top-25.  There is just that odd hole in his record so far this season with respect to goals scored.  Carlson is 0-4-4, minus-3 in 20 career games against the Sabres.

In the end…

All of a sudden, the Caps are in position to record their first three-game winning streak since they cobbled together a five-game streak in Games 7-11 back in late October and early November.  And, although they are fourth in the Metropolitan Division, they are just two points out of first place with a game in hand on the Pittsburgh Penguins and two games in hand on the New York Rangers, both with 35 points.  They are right in the middle of the mix of a division that is the only one in the NHL to date with six teams having earned 30 or more standings points.  And, with Buffalo, Vancouver, the New York Islanders, and Carolina coming up on the schedule, it is a chance to stash away some more standings points as the 2016 portion of the season winds down.  As streaky as the Caps have been, though, it will be interesting to see just how the Caps make use of the schedule they have coming up.

Capitals 4 – Sabres 2

A TWO-Point Night -- Game 25: Washington Capitals 4 - Boston Bruins 3 (OT)

The Washington Capitals made it two straight overtime wins on Wednesday night with a 4-3 victory over the Boston Bruins at Verizon Center.  It was a game not without its tense moments, and it was one that reflected much of what the Capitals’ season has been to date.

The Caps got out of the gate quickly when Justin Williams scored just 23 seconds into the game.  Alex Ovechkin started the play skating the puck up the left side to the red line, where he sent it cross-ice to Evgeny Kuznetsov skating past the player benches.  Kuznetsov carried the puck into the Bruins’ zone, stopping at the edge of the right wing circle.  Drawing back just a bit to create space between himself and Bruin defenseman Zdeno Chara, Kuznetsov floated a shot at the Boston net.  William, going to the front of the net, got position on Brandon Carlo just enough to get his stick on the puck as it was sailing by.  The deflection tumbled past goalie Tuukka Rask, and the Caps were off and running.

Seven minutes later, it was Williams again.  It started with Dmitry Orlov keeping the puck in the offensive zone at the left point, then feeding it to Ovechkin circling behind him.  Ovechkin moved it to Kuznetsov entering the zone down the left wing.  Kuznetsov circled through the left wing circle in the direction of the Bruin net, put he lost control of the puck on a lift check from Chara.  Williams pounced on the loose puck, spun, and snapped a shot past Rask’s pads to make it 2-0, 7:57 into the period.

That was how the teams went to the first intermission, but the Caps picked up where they left off when they returned to the ice.  Jay Beagle collected a loose puck at the red line and skated it up the right wing wall.  Daniel Winnik jumped up to make it a 2-on-1 rush for the Caps, and when Beagle snapped a crips pass past Carlo onto Winnik’s blade, it was only for the latter to rip the puck past a lunging Rask to make it 3-0 at the 5:51 mark.

If Caps fans’ memories were starting to drift back to March 3, 2008, when the Caps beat the Bruins, 10-2, on this ice sheet,  the Bruins put that notion to rest with goals 2:25 apart late in the second period to get within one.  Dominic Moore got the first one when the Caps lost a faceoff in their own end (details!...details!!), didn’t get to a loose puck in front of their own goal (goalie Braden Holtby and defensemen Brooks Orpik and Dmitry Orlov finding it just out of reach), allowed Anton Blidh (just off the set as an evil villain in a new James Bond movie) to get a shot off, then lost track of Moore following up to tuck the rebound past Holtby.

David Pastrnak got the B’s within a goal when he muscled Evgeny Kuznetsov off the puck on the Bruins’ side of the red line, earing himself a breakaway on Holtby.  Pastrnak skated in and, with Orlov desperately trying to close the gap, tucked the puck between Holtby’s legs to make it 3-2 with just one minute left in the period.

Boston made it all the way back when the teams returned for the third period.  With Boston on a power play, Brad Marchand occupied Nicklas Backstrom and Karl Alzner as he skated the puck through the right wing circle toward the corner.  He left it for Austin Czarnik, who relayed it to Colin Miller for a one-timer at the top of the zone that beat Holtby through a screen and into the top of the net to make it 3-3, 8:19 into the third period.

That would be all for the scoring in regulation for the two teams, and the Caps needed less than 100 seconds in the extra session to end it.  Nate Schmidt started the play by moving the puck up and out of the Caps’ end to Marcus Johansson at the red line.  Johansson backhanded a pass cross-ice to Backstrom on the right wing at the Boston blue line.  He skated in and, from the top of the right wing circle, fed Schmidt charging down the middle into the zone.  Schmidt returned the puck to Backstrom, who looked over his options and dialed his own number, snapping the puck through Rask’s legs to give the Caps the 4-3 overtime win.

Other stuff…

-- Nicklas Backstrom’s goal in overtime was his 17^th game recording a point in his career against the Bruins.  The Caps are 17-0-0 in those games.  Backstrom is 5-26-31, plus-15 in those games.

-- Williams’ two-goal game was his third multi-goal game as a Capital and his first this season.  It was also his first multi-goal game as a Capital against a team that was not the New York Rangers.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov had a pair of assists, his first multi-assist game since the Caps beat the Winnipeg Jets, 3-2, back on November 1^st, and his first multi-point game since he had a goal and an assist against the St. Louis Blues in a 4-3 win on November 23^rd.

-- The Caps had only 20 shots on goal.  It was not their low for the season, but they could see it from there.  They had 18 shots on goal in a 3-0 win over the Colorado Avalanche on October 18^th.

-- The Bruins might be feeling as if they let one get away instead of the Caps barely escaping that fate.  Owing, no doubt, to score effects, the Bruins enjoyed a 72-47 advantage in overall shot attempts, and a 57-40 edge in shot attempts at 5-on-5 (58.76 percent Corsi-for; numbers from Corsica.hockey).

-- In a scoring oddity, Brooks Orpik was the only Capital to finish in minus territory (minus-1).

-- Tom Wilson… six hits, a minor penalty, no shot attempts.  Is this the player, or the role the player is being asked to play?

-- It wasn’t all unicorns and accordions for Nicklas Backstrom in this game.  He won just four of 16 faceoffs (he was 4-for-11 against Patric Bergeron, but Bergeron does that to a lot of guys).  And speaking of which, Kuznetsov did have the infrequent over-50 percent game in the circle (9-for-16/56.3 percent), but he did lose the defensive zone draw that led to Dominic Moore’s goal.

-- Nate Schmidt’s assist broke a six-game streak without a point, and he displayed an interesting transition aspect to his game, going from “puck-moving defenseman” to clear the puck out of his own end onto a teammate’s stick, then becoming “forward charging hard to the net” when the Caps gained control in the offensive zone moments before Backstrom’s game-winner off the pass from Schmidt.  It might be too much risk-versus-reward for the Caps to tolerate, but he might be an intriguing overtime addition when teams are 3-on-3.

-- Braden Holtby’s win makes him 10-2-0 in 12 career appearances against Boston, the last six wins coming consecutively with the win last night.  As if that isn’t impressive enough, his career numbers against the Bruins are a goals-against average of 1.20, a save percentage of .948, and he has three shutouts.  In those last six consecutive wins, he has those three shutouts and has a 1.00 GAA with a .966 save percentage.

In the end…

So this is the Washington Capitals.  As Nicklas Backstrom pointed out in the post-game interview on the bench, the Caps are a team that plays well for 20 minutes here and there, but they don’t do it for 60 minutes often enough.  Last night was an example.  The Caps, even though the two early goals were a bit fluky, threatened to run the Bruins out of the building.  They built a 3-0 lead 26 minutes into the game, then they seemed to let their minds wander.  It cost them, almost to the point of giving away at least one point and possibly two.  Twenty five games into the season, we are at the point where we might ask ourselves, can this team turn its focus on when it has to down the road, or is this the team they are?  The former is the hope, but the latter is the fear.  Something to watch going forward.