Washington Capitals 2018-2019 Previews -- Defensemen: Dmitry Orlov

Dmitry Orlov

“If you tell me that you desire a fig, I answer you that there must be time. Let it first blossom, then bear fruit, then ripen.”

-- Epictetus

By the time Dmitry Orlov was taken by the Washington Capitals in the second round with the 55^th overall pick, 19 defensemen had already been selected.  Fast forward nine years, and Orlov has played in more games (365) than 13 of those 19 defensemen, scored more goals (30) than 13 of them, has more points (124) than 14 of them, and has a better plus-minus (plus-53) than 17 of them.

Orlov established himself in 2017-2018 as a defenseman capable of getting top pair minutes, teaming with Matt Niskanen to make a formidable top pair for the Caps.  It was a huge step up in terms of ice time for the sixth-year defenseman in 2017-2018.  His average of 23:08 per game was second on the club.  A lot of that increase, (3:32 per game more than his previous best, in 2013-2014) was a product of his getting 1:59 per game killing penalties. 1:26 more than his previous high average in his rookie season in 2011-2012.  His even strength ice time (19:59 per game) also rose by almost a full minute from his previous high (19:00 in 2013-2014).

His taking on a heavy workload carried over into the postseason, where he averaged 24:12 a game, almost three minutes more than his next highest average (21:25 in 2017).  He recorded his first two career playoff goals and recorded twice as many points (2-6-8) in 24 postseason games than he did in 24 career postseason games before this season (0-4-4).

Odd Orlov Fact…

2016-2017…2017-2018. 82 games…82 games.  125 shots…125 shots.  4.8 percent shooting percentage…8.0 percent shooting percentage.  That is why Orlov had six goals in 2016-2017 and 10 goals in 2017-2018.

Bonus Odd Orlov Fact…

Both of Dmitry Orlov’s postseason goals were “first goals,” one opening the scoring in the Caps’ 6-3 series-clinching win over the Columbus Blue Jackets in the first round, and the other being the game’s first goal in the Caps’ 4-2 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference final.

Double Bonus Odd Orlov Fact…

Dmitry Orlov was thaken with the 55^th overall pick in the 2009 entry draft.  That has been an especially popular overall draft slot for the Caps over the years, six players having been drafted in that slot in team history.  Orlov is one of five players taken with that pick to play in the NHL and one of three to dress for more than 350 NHL games (Bengt Gustafsson and Torrie Robertson being the others).

Fearless’ Take…

Dmitry Orlov was the only Capitals defenseman with more credited takeaways (54) than giveaways (51) last season.  He was second in hits (128), third in blocked shots (116), second in shots on goal (125), second in shot attempts for percentage at 5-on-5 (49.54).  He was not just contributing at the offensive end of the ice, and he managed to do it all while coloring inside the lines.  He took only 11 penalties in 82 games.  Only 19 of 86 defensemen in the league appearing in at least 75 games took fewer penalties.

Cheerless’ Take…

If Dmitry Orlov could have done the damage to other divisions that he did to the Metro, what a season it would have been.  He had six goals on 45 shots (13.3 percent) in 28 games (0.21 goals per game).  Against everyone else he had four goals on 80 shots (5.0 percent) in 54 games (0.11 goals per game).  And big workloads were not always a good thing.  In 27 games in which Orlov skated more than 24 minutes, the Caps were 13-10-4.

Potential Milestones…

• 400 career games (he needs 35)
• 100 assists (he needs six)
• 500 shots on goal (he needs 49)
• 7,000 minutes (he needs 42)

The Big Question… Is “First Pair Defenseman” a permanent role for Dmitry Orlov?

Dmitry Orlov getting top minutes on a Stanley Cup winner might not have been what one might have envisioned when he was drafted in the second round of the entry draft in 2009.  It might not have been envisioned in 2016-2017 when he was fourth in average ice time among defensemen playing the entire season with the club (fifth if you include Kevin Shattenkirk’s 19 games).  However, he played more than 26 minutes in the Caps’ season opener last season and never looked back, skating less than 20 minutes only once in 82 games in the regular season and only once in 24 games in the playoffs.

But it is not as if Orlov exploded on the scene in 2017-2018, either.  He has become a quite durable defensemen, despite losing a chunk of his early career development to injury.  This was his third consecutive season appearing in every game, one of only five defensemen in the league to do so.  He also has become, if not a top-drawer offensive defenseman, at least a reliable one, scoring 29, 33, and 31 points last season in those three years.

In the end…

It is easy to underestimate the season Dmitry Orlov had in 2017-2018.  For instance, since 1997-1998, only 28 defensemen taken in the second round appeared in 60 games and averaged more 23 minutes per game at least one season.  Orlov's 2017-2018 season is one of them.  As an aside, given the lack of success the Caps had with defensemen taken in the second-round in the years immediately preceding Orlov’s pick (Eric Mestery, Theo Ruth, Josh Godfrey, and Keith Seabrook, none of whom ever played in an NHL game), Orlov’s ascent to the top pair is rather amazing.

Orlov heads into the 2018-2019 season having largely justified the six-year/$30.6 million contract that he signed last summer.  It has been a long time coming, especially with the bumps along the way early in his career, but as he enters his tenth season since being drafted by the Caps, time invested has been worth the effort.  He enters his prime years as one of the important elements in the Capitals’ success and a player they will have to depend on to maintain that success.

Projection: 82 games, 9-22-31, plus-8

Photo: Rob Carr/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2018-2019 Previews -- Defensemen: Matt Niskanen

Matt Niskanen

“The most successful men in the end are those whose success is the result of steady accretion.”

-- Alexander Graham Bell

When Washington Capitals defenseman Matt Niskanen took the ice on April 5^th against the Nashville Predators he became the 22^nd defenseman active in the 2017-2018 season to appear in 800 career NHL games.  With the 68 games he played in the 2017-2018 season, Niskanen became the 20^th defenseman in Caps history to play in 300 or more games for the club.  It was a season that fit squarely with Niskanen’s performance profile over his previous 11 seasons in the NHL.  If anything, it was somewhat better.  He appeared in 68 games (his career average before last season: 67), but his 7-22-29, plus-24 scoring line was more in line with his per-82 game averages over his previous 11 seasons (6-25-31, plus-10).

The breakthrough for Niskanen in 2017-2018 was becoming a full-time first-pair defenseman.  His pairing with Dmitry Orlov (perhaps a bigger surprise in getting top billing) was the most reliable, most stable pairing for the Caps over the course of the entire season.  He shook off an early scoring slump, posting only two assists and a plus-1 in his first ten games (punctuated by a 13-game absence to a hand injury), to go 7-20-27, plus-23 in his last 58 games.  Only once did he have a streak longer than three games without a point, a six-game streak from December 16^th through December 28^th.

There was a dramatic shift in one aspect of Niskanen’s game in 2017-2018.  In each of his previous three seasons with the Caps, he averaged more than one minute of power play ice time per game with a high of 2:25 in 2015-2016.  Last season, however, he averaged just 31 seconds of power play ice time per game.  That was offset by lesser increases to even strength ice time (up 1:35 per game) and shorthanded ice time per game (up eight seconds per game).  He still managed to average more than 22 minutes per game for the fourth time in four seasons as a Capital.

Odd Niskanen Fact…

Matt Niskanen is one of only nine defensemen in the last 30 years (and only the third not drafted by the club) to skate more than 7,000 minutes as a Capital.  

Bonus Odd Niskanen Fact…

Matt Niskanen dressed for 16 games in the postseason in his rookie year with the Dallas Stars.  He would not appear in that many games in a postseason again over his next seven trips to the playoffs… until last season with the Caps (24).

Double Bonus Odd Niskanen Fact…

Matt Niskanen was part of the 2005 entry draft class, the tenth defenseman taken and 28^th player overall.  Defensemen taken ahead of him by the Caps in that class?  Sasha Pokulok (14^th overall; no NHL games) and Joe Finley (27^th overall, one pick before Niskanen; 21 NHL games).

Fearless’ Take…

Matt Niskanen was a minutes-eater in the postseason, to good effect.  Washington did not lose a game in regulation time when he skated 25 minutes or more (eight wins and two overtime losses).  It was a continuation of his profile in the regular season where the Caps were 14-2-3 in the 19 games in which he skated more than 24 minutes.  Offensively, it was, if not his best of his four seasons since he came to Washington from Pittsburgh, then close to it, given the games missed to a hand injury.  His 0.10 goals per game was his best as a Capital, and his 0.43 points per game was his second best with the Caps and fourth best of his 11 year career.

Cheerless’ Take…

In his first ten seasons, Matt Niskanen was over 50 percent in even strength Corsi-for percentage, averaging 52.5 percent over those seasons.  Last year, he was under 50 percent for the first time (48.7 percent; source: hockey-reference.com).  His relative Corsi-for of 0.7 was off by 2.6 points from the previous season. 

Potential Milestones…

• 300 career points (he needs 2)
• 100 power play points (he needs 11)

The Big Question… Is Matt Niskanen underappreciated?

Matt Niskanen came into the NHL in 2007-2008.  Since then the population of defensemen with 800 games, 50 goals, 250 points, and plus-100 or better includes the following:  Zdeno Chara, Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, and Niskanen.  That’s it.  And Niskanen did it while playing the fewest minutes of the group (16,596), more than 1,300 fewer than Vlasic (17,908).  However, since he finished eighth in the Calder Trophy voting for top rookie in 2007-2008, only once did he receive any votes for an individual award, finishing tenth in the Norris Trophy voting for top defenseman with Pittsburgh in 2013-2014.  It probably says more that we would ask a question about the level of appreciation in his play than any particular aspect of that play and whether he could improve on it or suffer a regression. 

The fact is, he is among the most reliable defensemen in the game.  With the Caps, his range of goal scoring in four seasons is four to seven, and his points range from 29 to 39, although his other two seasons of 31 and 32 points suggest a predictability as a low-30’s point producer, right where is in his career per-82 game average (31 per 82 games).  There is every reason to think that, absent injury, he would once more produce in that area, and little expectation that he would experience an upward spike in his scoring.  If there is a Capitals defenseman from years gone by that he might resemble in his reliable and understated play, it might be Calle Johansson (albeit a bit edgier). That's not bad company.

In the end…

Matt Niskanen is not a conventional top-pair defenseman.  He isn’t a big goal scorer, not a fancy playmaker, isn’t extraordinarily physical (although ranking 25^th in total credited hits by defensemen over his four years in Washington, it might be an underrated part of his play), doesn’t get much time on, let alone dominate a power play.  He is an adept all-around defenseman who has quietly, steadily, bit by bit built a body of work that is impressive more in its totality than if you look at it game-by-game, or even season by season.  It would be folly at this point to expect anything other than that reliable, dependable, productive level of play. 

Projection: 74 games, 6-24-30, plus-14

Photo: Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2018-2019 Previews -- Defensemen: Michal Kempny

Michal Kempny

“Life can surprise you.”

-- Gary Bettman

A hockey season has its ebbs and flows, its routines and its mileposts that mark important times and dates in the season.  One of the most eagerly anticipated dates on the hockey season calendar is the trading deadline.  With great anticipation, fans, pundits, and even players weigh in on how things might unfold and who might be sent where.  Most of the anticipation and the attention focus on big names. 

Sometimes, though, the most meaningful transactions are lost in the hype.  Consider February 19, 2018.  Two trades took place on that date.  One involved a playoff hopeful trading to bolster the most important position on the ice, the Philadelphia Flyers sending two conditional draft picks to the Detroit Red Wings for goaltender Petr Mrazek.  In the “and in other news” category, the Washington Capitals obtained defenseman Michal Kempny from the Chicago Blackhawks for a 2018 third round draft pick.

It was the second straight season in which the Capitals traded for a defenseman at or near the trade deadline.  In February 2017, the Caps dealt two players and two draft picks for defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk and goalie Pheonix Copley, thinking that Shattenkirk – largely thought of as the prize among available players at the deadline – would be the last piece to the puzzle of how to win a Stanley Cup.  It took a second bite at that apple for that to work (the Caps took another bite of the apple two days after the Kempny deal, trading a fifth round draft pick to the Montreal Canadiens for Jakub Jerebek).  But who knew it would work with a trade for a defenseman in his second year in the NHL at the age of 27 with just 81 games of experience?

Kempny ended up being the solution to more than one problem.  The Caps were not getting it done, or at least not looking like a likely deep-run playoff team with two rookie defensemen (Christian Djoos and Madison Bowey) getting regular turns in the lineup.  Whether they were paired together, or they were partnered with John Carlson (Djoos) and Brooks Orpik (Bowey), it wasn’t working at a high enough level.  They had one solid pair – Matt Niskanen and Dmitry Orlov – and two that just didn’t seem to click.

Enter Kempny.  Pairing him with John Carlson on the second pair allowed head coach Barry Trotz to pair a conventional offensive defenseman in Christian Djoos with a conventional defensive defenseman in Brooks Orpik.  Uncertainty about the blue line’s ability to stand up when the pressure was greatest melted away.  Not that Kempny’s numbers popped off the page.  He was 2-1-3, plus-1, in 22 regular season games and 2-3-5, plus-1, in 24 playoff contests, but his presence settled the defense and made it an effective complement to the strong forwards lines that the Caps took into the postseason and to a Stanley Cup.

Odd Kempny Fact…

The Caps’ Stanley Cup win makes Michal Kempny an oddity among defensemen in franchise history.  He is the only defenseman in Caps history to appear in fewer than 25 regular season games (22) and more than 20 playoff games (24) in a single season.

Fearless’ Take…

I think the term my esteemed cousin is searching for in describing Kempny’s effect on the team is a “burr puzzle.”  It is a kind of a wood puzzle that often contains three sets of rod pairs that have to interlock to form a burr seed-shaped or other symmetrical solution. Such a puzzle has 5 pieces and 1 “key” piece.  Kempny might have been just that piece.  It took a little time for the pieces to resolve themselves, the Caps going 3-4-0 in his first seven games with the club and his personal numbers being 0-0-0, minus-4.  But after that, Kempny went 2-1-3, plus-5, in 15 games, and the Caps went 12-3-0.  And, more Kempny was a good thing.  The Caps went 14-5-0 in the 19 games in which he skated at least 15 minutes in ice time.

Cheerless’ Take…

OK, it worked.  But was that a sign of the Caps unleashing the true inner Kempny, or was that just the fickle finger of fate (what, you kids never heard of “Rowan and Martin’s Laugh-In?”)?  Let’s just keep in mind that he was never drafted, didn’t sign an NHL contract until he was 25 years old, has Karl Alzner-esque career offensive numbers (5-13-18 in 103 games with the Caps and the Chicago Blackhawks), had his worst personal possession numbers as a Cap (48.01 percent shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 versus 55.45 percent in 81 games with Chicago; source: NHL.com), and has a pretty ugly career takeaway-to-giveaway ratio (15 takeaways, 67 giveaways).  His 103 games in the NHL is his entire body of work in hockey in North America, having played entirely in Europe before signed by the Blackhawks in May 2016.

The Big Question… Will “Mr. Kempny Goes to Washington” have a long run?”

Numbers don’t lie, and Michal Kempny’s were not especially impressive, but sometimes one has to put some trust in what you see and what others see.  When Michal Kempny was approaching unrestricted free agency last June, his defensive partner John Carlson had this to say about him…

"I thought he was a great player.  He made a huge impact on our team. When he got here, I thought we kind of started to play our best hockey maybe 10, 15 games after he got here, and then I thought he played awesome in the playoffs. He's a great player, a great defender and he can skate.  So that's pretty much textbook what you want to have on your team. And certainly, I think we play well together." 

Kempny, who was an irregular starter in Chicago, had this to say about the effect his coaches in Washington had on his play…

“When I came here, I had really, really great meetings with the coaches.  I sat down with Todd [Reirden], and he told me about the way we want to go — and we did. The plan [worked] out very well. I can’t be happier. It’s been an amazing three months for me.”

As an observational matter, there seems to be the sort of fit among player, playing partner, and coaches (especially Reirden, who takes over as head coach) that will reveal more of Kempny’s potential as a player than what he displayed in Chicago.  The team certainly thinks so, having signed him to a four-year/$10 million contract.  It is a front-loaded contract that pays out $6 million of the $10 million over the first two years of the deal, but the $2.5 million cap hit is in the same neighborhood of defensemen that includes Ryan Ellis, Thomas Hickey, Patrik Nemeth, Brayden McNabb, and Kevan Miller (all with a $2.5 million cap hit; source: capfriendly.com).  Whether that is a bargain or not is uncertain, but the Caps are giving Kempny the wherewithal to make this a long run.

In the end…

On a “value-to-hype” basis (contributions to the club versus the attention paid at the time), the trade of a third round draft pick for Michal Kempny might be the most consequential in the history of the franchise.  The Rod Langway trade was more important to the club, and the Jaromir Jagr deal was bigger, but both of those were blockbuster trades.  The Kempny deal flew so far under the radar at the time, you needed a coal miner’s lamp helmet to see it. But it solved the most obvious weakness that the Caps had as they were approaching the playoffs, the lack of confidence that they had three solid defensive pairs.  Maybe it was just one moment in time in which everything came together, or maybe it’s the start of a beautiful relationship.  Either way, it was quite a surprise that Michal Kempny would figure so large in the fortunes of the Capitals in 2018, and it was the kind of season that fosters hope that the show will keep running for years to come.

Projection: 77 games, 4-7-11, plus-3

Photo: Harry How/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2018-2019 Previews -- Defensemen: Christian Djoos

Christian Djoos

“Whoso neglects learning in his youth, loses the past and is dead for the future.”

-- Euripides

Christian Djoos had a nice rookie season for the Washington Capitals in 2017-2018.  How nice?  He started his rookie season with a goal in his first NHL game:

And when the season was over, he became only the 13th defenseman in team history to dress for at least 60 regular season games as a rookie and only the fifth since Kevin Hatcher played in 79 games as a rookie in 1985-1986.  He became only the third rookie defenseman in team history to play in 60 regular season games and post a plus-minus of plus-10 or better, joining John Carlson (plus-21 in 2010-2011) and Scott Stevens (plus-15 in 1982-1983).

Djoos ranked highly among his rookie defenseman peers in 2017-2018 as well, finishing eigth in games played (63), tied for eighth in goals (three), 12^th in assists (11), tied for ninth in points (14), tied for fourth in plus-minus (plus-13). He accomplished this despite ranking 40^th in average ice time (14:02 per game) among 62 rookie defensemen appearing in at least 20 games.

His possession numbers were respectable, finishing 20^th among 56 rookie defensemen appearing in at least half of their teams’ games (521.79 percent; numbers from NHL.com), although he was sheltered in terms of his offensive zone starts (60.43 percent, 11^th among that same group of 56 defensemen).

Odd Djoos Fact…

Christian Djoos scored three goals on home ice last season (none on the road).  The Caps lost two of the games, a 3-2 loss to Pittsburgh on October 11^th and a 4-1 loss to Florida on October 21^st.  The lone win accompanying a Djoos goal was a 5-2 win over New Jersey on December 30^th.

Fearless’ Take…

Playing defense is hard in the NHL, perhaps the hardest position on the ice to master and play well consistently.  That only 13 rookie defensemen played in 60 or more games last season, including Djoos, speaks to that idea.  It is especially noteworthy with respect to Djoos that he was among this group having been a seventh-round/195^th overall draft pick in 2012.  He is one of only six skaters out of the seventh round of that draft to have dressed for an NHL game, and Djoos has the most among them.  He is one of only eight rookie defensemen since 2005-2006 taken in the seventh round of any draft to have played in 60 or more games and the only one to have played for a Stanley Cup winner. 

Cheerless’ Take…

Djoos hit a wall last year, at least in the offensive end, that looked like Wile E. Coyote trying to chase the Road Runner through a tunnel, only to find it was a painted rock.  He had a four-game points streak to end January and begin February, but starting with his 45^th game of the season on February 9^th, he was 0-2-2 over his last 41 games, including the playoffs.  He finished the season with a 54-game streak without a goal, including the postseason.  And there was an ice time issue.  In 20 games in which he skated more than 20 minutes, the Caps were 9-9-2.  They were 9-5-1 when he skated 13 minutes or less.

The Big Question… Is Christian Djoos’ role as a starting third pair defenseman secure?

The overall picture of the Washington Capitals heading into training camp and the 2018-2019 season is that they bring almost their entire Stanley Cup winning roster back.  They lost one skater (Jay Beagle).  Drilling down, it would then follow that Christian Djoos, having established himself with a good rookie season and then appearing in 22 playoff games after sitting out the first two games of the first round, would have his name written in pen on the six-deep depth chart of defensemen.  Well, let’s step back a bit.

Remember that at this time last season, he and Madison Bowey were being looked at as a rookie third-pair for the Caps.  For a while, they were in the lineup regularly, even if not always paired with one another.  As the season unfolded, the Caps traded for Michal Kempny, who was paired with John Carlson, Djoos was paired with Brooks Orpik, and Bowey was sent to Hershey.  Voila!  A Stanley Cup.  So here we are a few months later, and Bowey is in camp pushing for a roster spot, some other youngsters (Lucas Johansen, Jonas Siegenthaler, Connor Hobbs) might be making a case for themselves, and Djoos did have, if not struggles, than a less productive last five months of the season in his rookie campaign than he had in its beginning.

It is not to say that Djoos is in imminent danger of losing a starting spot or even a roster spot.  But he does have an additional consideration that in some cases would be incentive, while in other cases, pressure.  His current contract expires after this season, and he will be an arbitration-eligible restricted free-agent.  How well he fights off a “sophomore slump,” how well he deals with the grind of a long NHL season to avoid hitting a wall, and how well he can compartmentalize his on-ice responsibilities and his looming contract situation will go a long way to determining if he can maintain a firm grip on his spot on the depth chart.

In the end…

What with Alex Ovechkin having another fine year and fulfilling a Stanley Cup dream, Evgeny Kuznetsov’s coming-out party as a top echelon forward in the league, John Carlson’s career year, Lars Eller’s clutch playoff performance, Devante Smith-Pelly’s odd propensity to score goals in the postseason at rates he doesn't approach in the regular season, and Braden Holtby’s return from the abyss at the end of the bench as Philipp Grubauer’s backup to open the playoffs, Christian Djoos’ season can get lost in the cheering.

Make no mistake, though.  Djoos had a rookie campaign that compares favorably among rookie defensemen over the history of this franchise.  The object of the sophomore year, then, is to take the lessons learned and experience gained as a freshman and build on it to continue with favorable comparisons to his predecessors on the Capitals’ blue line.

Projection: 74 games, 4-12-16, plus-10

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2018-2019 Previews -- Defensemen: John Carlson

John Carlson

“You climb to reach the summit, but once there, discover that all roads lead down.”

-- Stanislaw Lem

John Carlson isn’t the best defenseman named “Carlson” in his draft class, the 2010 draft being the one in which newly minted San Jose Shark Erik Karlsson was drafted.  But John Carlson has something Erik Karlsson does not – a Stanley Cup.  And Carlson (John) was no bit player in that effort.  He was one of 29 defensemen to appear in all 82 games, and he was a top-ten finisher among defensemen in goals (15/T-8^th), assists (53/T-3^rd, with Erik), points (68/1^st), points per game (0.83/T-3^rd), power play assists (28/1^st), power play points (32/2^nd), game-winning goals (4/T-4^th), power play ice time (303 minutes/1^st).

There was also something of a grittership component to Carlson’s game as well.  Thirteen defensemen played in at least 50 games, averaged at least 0.50 hits per game, averaged at least 1.5 blocked shots per game, and averaged at least 2.50 shots on goal per game.  Carlson was one of them, joining what amounts to defenseman royalty – Drew Doughty, Mark Giordano, Seth Jones, Roman Josi, Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson, and Alex Pietrangelo, among others.

And he closed like a freight train.  In his last 30 games he was 8-20-28.  Only Victor Hedman and Shayne Gostisbehere had more points (28 apiece), and only Tyson Barrie had more power play points (18 to 14 for Carlson).

He was not done in the regular season.  Carlson became just the fourth defenseman since 2005-2006 to record 20 or more points in a single postseason.  He obliterated the team record for points in a single postseason (12, held by Carlson, Kevin Hatcher and Scott Stevens).  In fact, his was the best postseason in franchise history for a defenseman as far as offensive numbers are concerned.  He is the only defenseman in team history to appear in ten games, record five or more goals and record 15 or more points.

That Carlson finished fifth in the Norris Trophy voting might have been a bit of a surprise, but voting for trophies in the NHL does have its reputational component.  Not that Drew Doughty or P.K. Subban, who finished second and third in the voting, had obviously inferior years to Carlson, but those two are at a stage in their respective careers where one, the other, or both are going to be in the finalists group. 

Odd Carlson Fact…

John Carlson was the only defenseman in the league last season to log more than 300 power play minutes and more than 200 penalty killing minutes.  He is the only defenseman to do it since Oliver Ekman-Larsson did it in 2014-2015.

Bonus Carlson Fact…

John Carlson played in all 82 games last season and did not skate less than 20 minutes in any of them.  He has logged 20 or more minutes in 96 consecutive  regular season games dating back to March 4, 2017, when he skated 19:43 in a 2-1 win over the Philadelphia Flyers.  Including postseason games, Carlson has logged 20 or more minutes in 108 consecutive games dating back to Game 5 of last year’s second round loss to Pittsburgh when he skated 19:54 in a 4-2 win over the Penguins.

Fearless’ Take…

John Carlson climbed up the ladder in a lot of franchise all-time categories in 2017-2018. He jumped into the top ten in games played among defensemen, finishing the season in seventh place in games played (608), seventh in career goals (77), sixth in assists (256), seventh in points (333), eighth in plus-minus (plus-59), eighth in power play goals (22), and fourth in game-winning goals (17).  No defenseman appearing in at least 100 games for the Caps since 2005-2006 has averaged more ice time per game than Carlson (23:00).

Cheerless’ Take…

Carlson sure liked his home cooking.  He was a point a game player at Capital One Arena (9-32-41), while going just 6-21-27 on the road.  That’s generally true over his career, over which he is 48-130-178, plus-47 at home and 29-126-155, plus-12 on the road.  And while he was something of a minutes-eater on the blue line, that was not always a good thing.  The Caps were just 14-9-2 in the 25 games in which he logged over 26 minutes.

Potential Milestones:

• 400 career points (he needs 67)
• 200 career penalty minutes (he needs 2)
• 20 career game-winning goals (he needs 3)
• 15,000 minutes played (he needs 1,014)

The Big Question… Has John Carlson peaked in his career development arc?

When you set career highs in goals, assists, points, even strength goals, power play assists, power play points, minutes played, and shots on goals, it would be reasonable to ask, “is there another summit to reach?” Carlson will be 29 in January.  Since the 2005-2006 season, only three defensemen have reached their 29^th birthday season and: a) played in every game, b) recorded at least 15 goals, and c) recorded at least 60 points.  Brent Burns did it three times, while Dan Boyle and Nicklas Lidstrom did it once (Lidstrom accomplishing the feat at age 40).  It would be a rare feat for Carlson to do this and more or less duplicate his 2017-2018 results.

That is a pretty high standard, though, especially for playing in every game.  Bumping the thresholds down a bit, say to 75 games, 12 goals, and 50 points, and it is not a bridge too far to cross.  There have been 21 defensemen since 2005-2006 to hit those marks having reached their 29^th birthday.  Over the past five seasons Carlson has averaged 12-40-52 per 82 games.  It would not be a stretch for him to join this company.

In the end…

John Carlson is a part of hockey royalty in one respect.  In his eight seasons since becoming a full-time member of the Capitals, Carlson is one of only ten defensemen in the league to have appeared in at least 500 games (he has 586), scored at least 75 goals (76), recorded at least 300 points (327).    His plus-48 is fourth best on that list.  He has been durable (six times in eight seasons dressing for every regular season game) and productive.  One can argue that he has reached the pinnacle of his profession.  Consider that group of ten defenseman of which he is a part, referenced above, that set some rather high standards of play over the last eight seasons.  It is the rarefied air made more so for the fact that only three of those defensemen – Dustin Byfuglien, Drew Doughty, and Carlson – have won Stanley Cups.  It isn’t a bad summit on which to stand.  It would be fine to spend some more time on this one before heading back down the trail.

Projection: 80 games, 13-49-62, plus-2

Photo: Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2018-2019 Previews -- Defensemen: Madison Bowey

Madison Bowey

“Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet.”

-- Jean-Jacques Rousseau

At this time last year, the Washington Capitals and their fans were contemplating the possibility of starting two rookie defensemen as a regular feature of their lineup.  Neither Madison Bowey nor Christian Djoos started for the Caps on Opening Night.  But whereas Djoos made his way into the lineup and more or less remained there through the regular season (63 games) and the playoffs (22 games), Bowey found his way into the lineup but dressed for only 51 games, none after February 20^th.  He would be the roster casualty of the Caps obtaining Michal Kempny for the stretch run to the postseason.

Not that his season was a failure so much as it was unsatisfying.  For example, Bowey was only the 18^th rookie defenseman in Caps history to dress for at least 50 games, but he was the only one of those 18 defensemen failing to record a single goal.  He is one of only a dozen Caps rookie defensemen in franchise history to post at least a dozen assists.  Mike Green didn’t do it (ten), despite playing in almost 20 more games (70) in his rookie season.  Kevin Hatcher came up short, too (10 assists in his 1985-1986 rookie season).  For that matter, so did Djoos (11).

If there was a disturbing aspect to Bowey’s play, it was in taking penalties.  Among the 14 rookie defensemen to appear in at least 50 games, Bowey tied for third in penalty minutes taken per game (0:28, with Tampa Bay’s Mikhail Sergachev).  And, there were the possession numbers.  Of that same group of 14 rookie defensemen, his shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 was the worst of the group (44.69; source: NHL.com).  He was the only one of the group whose number in this category was under 50 percent when the team was behind (47.99).  This despite 54.62 percent of his total offensive and defensive zone starts being taken in the offensive zone.  There might be a fair number of Caps fans, however, who would attribute much of this result to his being paired with Brooks Orpik for much of his time.

Odd Bowey Fact…

Despite not scoring a goal in his rookie season, Madison Bowey finished in the top ten among rookie defensemen in points per game (tenth/0.24 per game; minimum: 30 games).

Fearless’ Take…

One has to think the goal scoring will come.  Consider that no defenseman in Kelowna Rockets history (the team for which Bowey played in Canadian junior) has more career goals than Bowey (58).  He did get a fair amount of responsibility for a n NHL rookie otherwise.  Bowey was one of 30 rookie defensemen to skate 15 minutes in at least 13 games. 

Cheerless’ Take…

Hey cuz?  About that goal scoring in junior.  Bowey averaged 11.6 goals per season at Kelowna.  Well, Scott Hannan averaged 11.5 per season with Kelowna, and he ended up with just 39 goals in 1,166 career NHL games.  And about that ice time.  In the 14 games in which Bowey skated at least 15 minutes last season, the Caps were 5-8-1.

Potential Milestones:

• 100 career NHL games (he needs 49)
• 1,000 career minutes played (he needs 301)
• First NHL goal

The Big Question… Can Madison Bowey crack a lineup that looks set in its top-six defensemen?

What was the Capitals’ biggest question mark going into last season – the three defensive pairings – appears to be the most solid fixture on the roster going into this season.  Matt Niskenen – Dmitry Orlov, John Carlson – Michal Kempny, and Brooks Orpik – Christian Djoos appear to be the pairs that would be penciled into the lineup if tonight was Opening Night.  It leaves Madison Bowey in a bit of an odd place.  He is not the sort of veteran that would normally occupy a seventh defenseman spot on a roster the way that a Taylor Chorney might have last season. 

Bowey needs playing time, and under ideal circumstances, if the team manages his development with that in mind, he might be starting the season in Hershey.  But Bowey is no longer waiver exempt.  Unless he has an outstanding camp, he could find himself in an odd no-man’s land, unable to crack the lineup for significant stretches, but a player the team would not prefer to expose to waivers.  Add to this the fact that his position on the depth chart might be challenged from below by players such as Lucas Johansen or Jonas Siegenthaler, and it makes for an interesting situation to watch, if an uncomfortable one for the player.

In the end…

Let’s do a little mind exercise and compare a couple of prospect defensemen.  Defenseman A played 265 games in the Western Hockey League in Canadian junior and scored 37 goals.  In 56 games in the AHL he had nine goals.  As a rookie with the Caps he had two goals in 70 games.  Defenseman B played 259 games in the Western Hockey League in Canadian junior and scored 58 goals.  In 113 games in the AHL, he had nine goals.  Defenseman A went on to be a two-time Norris Trophy runner-up and had a 31-goal season for the Caps – Mike Green.  Defenseman B is, of course, Madison Bowey. 

This is not to say that Bowey will become Mike Green 2.0, any more than he will become the scoring-limited sort like Scott Hannan.  His immediate challenge is getting playing time on a team that is largely set in its top-six defensemen.  That is not a bad thing for the Caps, and it might not be a bad thing for Bowey, who could end up finishing his apprenticeship in Hershey this coming season.  He has worked his way back from what was a gruesome injury in December 2016 that made for a bitter interruption in his development.  As it is, he is at a stage in his career and plays at a position where patience is called for. 

Projection: 30 games, 1-6-7, minus-2

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2018-2019 Previews -- Forwards: Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

“If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.”

-- Lao Tzu

In his five seasons in the NHL, no player is within 80 penalty minutes of Tom Wilson (806; Antoine Roussel has 721), and only Cody McLeod has more major penalties (77 to 58 for Wilson).  Last year for the Washington Capitals he set a personal high in penalty minutes for a season with 187, and only Michael Haley had more fighting majors (22) than Wilson (13, tied with McLeod).  If Tom Wilson was President, his Secret Service code name would not be “Shrinking Violet.”

But a funny thing happened along the way last season.  Wilson set career bests in goals (14), assists (21), points (35), shots on goal (123), shooting percentage (11.4) and ice time (15:59) establishing himself as a credible right wing on the Capitals’ top line.  On top of that, Wilson took a regular turn among the penalty killers, averaging 1:44 in shorthanded ice time, third among Caps forwards.

It was a season that had two distinct parts to it for Wilson.  In his first 24 games he had only two goals, both of those (including the game-winner) coming in a 3-2 win in Boston over the Bruins on November 4^th.  Starting in his 25^th game, one in which he scored his first two goals on home ice last season in a 6-2 win over the Chicago Blackhawks, he scored 12 goals in his final 54 games, an 18-goal pace over a full 82-game season.

Wilson built on a solid regular season with an even better postseason.  How much?  Since 2005-2006, 51 skaters have appeared in at least 10 playoff games in a single postseason for the Caps.  Of that group, eight of them have at least one postseason in which they averaged 0.70 points per game.  Wilson joined the group last spring with 15 points in 21 games, 0.71 points per game.

Odd Wilson Fact…

Tom Wilson is one of only four players in the NHL over the last five seasons to record at least 30 goals and at least 500 penalty minutes. 

Bonus Odd Wilson Fact…

Only Bob Carpenter and Alex Ovechkin played more games over their first five seasons (400 and 396, respectively) than Wilson (391) in franchise history.

Double Bonus Odd Wilson Fact…

Tom Wilson is one of only two players drafted by the Capitals in team history to have logged at least 800 penalty minutes in his first five seasons (Scott Stevens had 1,065 PIMs).

Fearless’ Take…

Tom Wilson’s development in the offensive end of the ice adds a dimension that the Caps haven’t had a lot of in recent years, a player with an edge who can contribute.  Yes, he has that history of penalty minutes, but the Caps were 17-1-1 in games in which he recorded at least three shots on goal last season, 9-1-0 in the ten games in which he recorded at least one goal, and 21-4-2 in games in which he recorded at least one point.  The Caps lost three of four games in which Wilson was charged with ten or more penalty minutes.

Cheerless’ Take…

Yeah, about all those games played.  In Capitals history, 17 forwards dressed for 300 or more games in their first five seasons.  Only Wilson had fewer than 50 career goals (35; Brooks Laich has the next lowest goal total in that group: 59 goals in 314 games).  An odd thing about his 2017-2018 season is that in 40 games in which he logged no penalty minutes he had a total of two goals.

Potential Milestones:

• 400 career games played (he needs nine)
• 50 career goals (he needs 15)
• 1,000 penalty minutes (he needs 194)
• 500 shots on goal (he needs 41)
• 5,000 minutes played (he needs 250)

The Big Question… Can Tom Wilson take his place among the top “power forwards” in the NHL?

Taking Tom Wilson with the 16^th overall pick in the 2012 NHL entry draft came with some risk.  He had two years of Canadian junior hockey under his belt and did not have the sort of offensive numbers one might associate with a mid-first round pick (12-21-33 in 77 games).  Even his third season in junior hockey, one in which he was 23-35-58 in 48 games, was a significant improvement, but not an extraordinary output on the offensive side of the puck, given his draft position.

He did give hints, though.  In two seasons in the playoffs in junior hockey, Wilson scored 16 goals in 25 games.  But when he got to the NHL for his first regular season test in 2013-2014 (he dressed for three playoff games the previous spring for the Caps), he was primarily a banger.  He had 197 credited hits, 151 penalty minutes, and only ten points in 82 games.  And, while his offensive numbers did improve over his next three seasons, he topped out at seven goals in each of his two seasons preceding the 2017-2018 season. 

Doubling his career best in goals, almost doubling his highs in assists and points, and following that up by tripling his career playoff point total over the 41 games over the previous four postseasons combined suggested that Wilson is ready to build on the responsible role he assumed on the top forward line last season.  It would make for an interesting mix.  Since the 2005-2006 season, only five players have recorded more than 20 goals and more than 150 penalty minutes in the same season, and none of them did it more than once.   Twenty goals and 40 points would be the next thresholds for Wilson to reach in his path to being mentioned among the top “power forwards” in the NHL.

In the end…

On July 27^th, the Capitals made another bet on Tom Wilson.  They signed the 24-year old to a six-year/$31 million contract with modified no-trade clauses in the final four years of the deal (source: capfriendly.com).   It is an interesting neighborhood for payroll.  Of 43 forwards with cap hits between $4.5 and $5.5 million (Wilson’s is $5.17 million), only Calgary’s Elias Lindholm and Columbus’ Alexander Wennberg are younger (both are 23, and both carry lower cap hits).  Wilson might have remained a bruising player whose main value was getting into the heads of opponents and their fans.  But with the Caps’ new deal with the player, they are betting that Wilson, who already has a well-developed physical dimension to his game, will continue to exhibit progress in the offensive side of his game and to continue playing a key penalty killing role.  It is a change of direction that both player and club have as the same destination – a Stanley Cup.

Projection: 80 games, 18-25-43, plus-11

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2018-2019 Previews -- Forwards: Jakub Vrana

Jakub Vrana

“An acre of performance is worth a whole world of promise.”

-- Arnold “Red” Auerbach

It might be that when the Washington Capitals drafted Jakub Vrana with the 13^th overall pick of the 2014 NHL entry draft, they drafted their first true sniper since they drafted Peter Bondra in 1990.  Different eras, different circumstances, but there are similarities.  Both came up through European hockey in the run-up to their draft years.  Bondra played four years with VSZ Kosice in what was then Czechoslovakia and averaged 0.56 goals per game over 161 regular season games.  Vrana played for a multitude of teams in European league and international play, averaging 0.55 goals per game in 392 games before he was drafted by the Caps.  Bondra was almost a fixture in the Caps lineup in the year following his draft, scoring 12 goals in 54 games as a rookie in 1990-1991.  Vrana followed what is a conventional path for contemporary European players, playing another year in Europe before joining the Hershey Bears for 36 games in the 2015-2016 season.

Bondra became the greatest goal scorer in Caps history (472 goals with Washington) until Alex Ovechkin surpassed him in the 2014-2015 season.  Many years must pass before a verdict is rendered on whether Vrana can be mentioned among the franchise’s greatest goal scorers.  He had a beginning that gave a hint of what was possible.  In only 21 games in his first season he recorded three power play goals, tied for sixth-best on the team.   He followed that up with a 13-goal season in 2017-2018, tied for 17^th among all NHL rookies.  Only three rookies had more postseason goals than Vrana (three): Boston’s  Jake DeBrusk and Vegas’ Alex Tuch with six apiece, and San Jose’s Marcus Sorensen with four.

To put Vrana’s brief career to date in some context, he is one of five Capitals since 2005-2006 who, having only reached his 21^st birthday, averaged at least 0.15 goals per game over his first two seasons while appearing in at least 50 games.  The other four are among the most talented offensive players in this generation of Capitals.  And of course, it was his goal that got the Caps started in their Cup-clinching win over the Vegas Golden Knights:

Odd Vrana Fact…

Jakub Vrana was only the fourth rookie in team history to play in the postseason who was a native of the Czech Republic and the first since Jaroslav Svejkovsky in 1998.

Fearless’ Take…

The Capitals have taken their time in bringing Jakub Vrana along.  Even though he was the 13^th overall pick of the 2014 entry draft, he is 23^rd in NHL regular season games played (94), tied for 22^nd in goals (16), and 25^th in points.  Some might find that a bit disappointing, but that 2014 draft class was rather talented, what with the likes of Aaron Ekblad, Sam Reinhart, David Pastrnak, Leon Draisaitl, Dyaln Larkin, and William Nylander.  When it mattered last season, Vrana was a contributor.  He tied for fourth among all rookies in postseason goals (three), two of which were game-winners (tied with Vegas’ Alex Tuch for first among rookies).

Cheerless’ Take…

For a “sniper,” he seems a bit scattershot.  His shooting percentage in 73 games in 2017-2018 (9.8 percent) was just a bit above his percentage in 21 games in 2016-2017 (9.4).  And this despite not being shy about shooting.  He was sixth on the club in shots on goal (133) and in shots per game (1.82; minimum: 25 games).  And the Caps were 11-1-1 in games in which he skated less than ten minutes.  What’s up with that?  It might be a picky point, but being under 50 percent in shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 in tied (45.45) and close situations (49.71) look to be areas in which he could stand some improvement.

Potential Milestones:

• 100 career games (he needs six)
• 50 career points (he needs 17)

The Big Question… Can Jakub Vrana “Go Bondra” in 2018-2019?

In Peter Bondra’s second full season with the Caps, his goals scored improved from 12 in 54 games to 28 in 71 games.  Different era, different circumstances, but how Jakub Vrana progresses in what will be his second full season (and third in the NHL) will be one of the subplots worth watching as the season unfolds.  Bondra’s goals per game improved by 77 percent from his first to second full season.  A similar improvement for Vrana would lift him to 0.32 goals per game this season.  If he was to play 75 games, that would result in a 24-goal season.  That might be a bit too high a climb to make if he is getting third line minutes on the left wing and little power play time.  The flip side of this is that if he improves his shooting efficient with a comparable number of shots on goal, say, from 9.8 to 12.8 percent (keep in mind, eight Caps forwards playing in at least 50 games last year had higher percentages), he would be a 17-goal scorer.  If he could increase his shooting frequency to 2.0 shots per game with that efficiency, he would be pushing 20 goals.  These are elements of the maturation process one might look at in the development of a young player.

In the end…

Snipers in the NHL are, by their nature, opportunistic.  Jakub Vrana fills that bill so far.  He has four power play goals and four game-winning goals among his 16 career goals thus far.  Nine of the 12 regular season games in which he scored a goal last season ended in Caps wins.  He has shown no particular preference for home or road games, scoring eight of his 16 total career goals in each category. 

To return to comparisons with Peter Bondra, beginning with his second full season through 2002-2003, Bondra went 12-for-12 in seasons with more than 20 goals.  No other Capital over that span had more than three such seasons, and only Dmitri Khristich and Mike Ridley are in that group.  Vrana does not have the burden of being the go-to goal scorer with this club that Peter Bondra was over his career with the Caps.  That responsibility falls to Alex Ovechkin for the time being.  But as he enters his second full season, it is not unreasonable that in the normal course of development we see more evidence of the goal-scorer that Vrana can become.  His power play ice time might be a large factor on whether he can top the 20-goal mark (he averaged 40 seconds of power play time per game last season), but he should challenge that threshold to cultivate the seeds of performance in his acre of the NHL.

Projection: 77 games, 18-18-36, plus-5

Photo: Harry How/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2018-2019 Previews -- Forwards: Chandler Stephenson

Chandler Stephenson

“You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take.”

-- Wayne Gretzky

For the last six seasons, Jay Beagle was the pivot on the fourth line for the Washington Capitals.  A fine example of what hard work, despite his modest beginnings (undrafted), could accomplish.  Last spring he became the first player in NHL history to win a Kelly Cup (ECHL), Calder Cup (AHL), and Stanley Cup (NHL) in NHL history.  It says something of Beagle as a player and a person that few harbor any resentments that at the end of his championship season, he signed a contract as an unrestricted free agent with the Vancouver Canucks.

Beagle’s departure opens up a hole in the middle of the fourth line, one that could be filled by Chandler Stephenson this season.  Stephenson, if coming from beginnings not quite as modest as Beagle, has had to put in his time in apprenticeship to an NHL roster spot.  Caps fans might forget that he was drafted one spot ahead of Shayne Gostisbehere (third round/77^th overall) in the 2012 draft), or that he played another two seasons in Canadian junior (Regina Pats).  He spent parts of four seasons with the Hershey Bears in the AHL, two of those seasons getting a taste of NHL action (13 games) with the Caps.

It came together for Stephenson in his first NHL game, that coming on October 26^th against the Vancouver Canucks.  Late in the third period of that contest, Stephenson took a pass from Beagle at the red line, circled though the neutral zone and down the left side of the Canucks’ end.  Just before curling around the back of the net, he snapped a shot from the goal line extended to the left of goalie Anders Nilsson that snuck between the goalie and the near post for his first NHL goal and first NHL point.  We might have said “it all came together,” but the Caps lost the game, 6-2.

It was the first of 67 games Stephenson played last season, going 6-12-18, plus-13.  That he had six goals was something of an achievement (or an example of uncommon efficiency).  Among forwards dressing for at least 50 games last season, only Vegas’ Ryan Reaves averaged fewer shots on goal per game (0.53) than did Stephenson (0.54).  He was the only player, regardless of position, who had fewer than 40 shots on goal and more than five goals (San Jose’s Joel Ward had five goals on 40 shots).

Odd Stephenson Fact…

Chandler Stephenson is the first Capitals rookie in 20 years to record fewer than 40 shots and at least five goals.  Stephenson had six goals on 36 shots last season.   Jan Bulis had five goals on 37 shots as a rookie in 1997-1998.

Fearless’ Take…

It is not as if Chandler Stephenson has no history as a scorer.  In 230 games in Canadian junior he had 73 goals, including 30 in 69 games in his last year with the Regina Pats.  He had ten in 72 games in his last full season with the Hershey Bears, and in that season (2016-2017) he had 28 assists, fifth on the team.  He showed some ability to be a threat shorthanded with four shorthanded goals in 180 games at Hershey, and he had one last spring in the Caps’ playoff run, giving the Caps some insurance in the 6-3 series-clinching win over the Columbus Blue Jackets in the first round.

Cheerless’ Take…

There was a weird “all-in or all-out” thing about Chandler Stephenson’s numbers.  The Caps were 8-1-0 in the nine games in which he had two shots on goal (he did not have more than that in any game), and they were 24-11-5 in the 40 games in which he did not have a shot on goal.  One shot?  They were 9-9-0.  And there was his ice time.  He averaged 11:52 per game last season.  In the 35 games he skated above his average, the Caps were 20-11-4.  In the 32 games he skated under his average, they were 21-10-1.  He might get a chance to be a little more of a difference-maker if he slides off the wing into Beagle’s spot in the middle of the fourth line.

Potential Milestones:

• 100 career games played (he needs 20)
• 50 career points (he needs 32)
• 1,000 career minutes played (he needs 99)

The Big Question… Can Chandler Stephenson make the Caps “four-deep” in the middle with the departure of Jay Beagle?

Let’s face it, if you are contemplating whether a youngster can adequately fill in a fourth line center role, yours is a club without a lot of roster issues.  That said, Stephenson has to win that fourth line center role (he could, as he did for much of last season, play on the wing).  It is not a certainty.  He could be pressed by someone like Travis Boyd in camp or during the season for that role.  But Stephenson has played in the middle, and his numbers last year did suggest some potential to play it once more.  For example, he did not take a lot of faceoffs (on Beagle’s line, he would not have done so), but he did win 40 of 73 draws, a respectable 54.8 percent winning mark.  He averaged 1:10 in shorthanded ice time per game, one of five forwards to average more than a minute per game killing penalties.  He nearly doubled that in the postseason, averaging 2:01, second on the team (to Beagle).

In the end…

Their origins might differ, but there is some similarity in the early NHL career progress between Jay Beagle and Chandler Stephenson.  Beagle got his first sustained taste of NHL work in his third season (31 games, after a total of ten in his first two years), and so did Stephenson (67 games after a total of 13 over his first two seasons).  Both averaged around 11 minutes per game in what was their rookie season (Beagle – 10:30, Stephenson – 11:52).  Stephenson displayed more development as an offensive player than did Beagle (6-12-18 in 67 games of his rookie season to 2-1-3 in 31 games for Beagle in his). 

The picture that seems to be coming into focus is that Chandler Stephenson might not be the fully developed player (in terms of reaching his potential) that Jay Beagle was last season, but he might be ahead of where Beagle was at a comparable point in their development.  If Stephenson can continue upward on his development arc, he will fill the middle of the fourth line nicely.  But still, it might be nice if he shot the puck a little more.

Projection: 79 games, 7-14-21, plus-12

Photo: Kirk Irwin/Getty Images North America