The Peerless Prognosticator Brings You: 2019 Eastern Conference Quarterfinal, Washington Capitals vs. Carolina Hurricanes

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

For the first time in the history of the franchise, the Washington Capitals go into the postseason on a playoff winning streak.  The defending Stanley Cup champions open their championship defense on Thursday night against the Carolina Hurricanes at Capital One Arena carrying a four-game postseason winning streak, sweeping the Vegas Golden Knights in the Cup final last spring after dropping the first game of the series.  For the Caps, defending a championship is new.  So is facing the Hurricanes in the postseason. This will be the first playoff meeting of the clubs.

Washington Capitals (48-26-8)

Vs.

Carolina Hurricanes (46-29-7)

Then and Now I

This year’s version of the Capitals looks a lot like last year’s version in many respects.  One in which this group is clearly better is in scoring offense.  The Caps averaged 3.38 goals per game, the second highest average of the “Rock the Red” era (since 2005-2006, which was still “black and bronze,” but whatever), trailing only the 2009-2010 juggernaut that average 3.82 goals per game, the highest in this era of hockey until Tampa Bay eclipsed it this season (3.89 goals per game).

The Caps did experience a slight deterioration in their shots on goal differential, their own shots on goal dropping from 31.9 shots per game last season to 31.5 shots on goal per game this season.  On the other side of the ledger, shots on goal allowed this season were up (30.4) from last season (29.0), the result being a shot differential dropping from plus-2.9 per game to plus-1.1.

Extending that statistic to its next level – shot attempts at 5-on-5 – the Caps have improved this season.  Their shot attempts-for at 5-on-5 jumped from 47.98 to 49.04, representing a change in differential of plus-158, year-to-year.  It enabled the Caps to jump in ranking from 24^th in this category last season to 18^th this season.

If there was an area that might cause a sense of dread among Caps fans, it might be the idea of playing with a lead.  Consider that last season, the Caps went 28-0-1 when leading after one period, their .966 winning percentage being the best record in the league when leading after 20 minutes.  This year, that record was 27-7-3, the .730 winning percentage ranked 20^th and second-worst among playoff qualifiers in the East (the New York Islanders were 22-4-5/.710).  On the other hand, this was a club that lost once in regulation last season when leading after two periods (36-1-3), their .900 winning percentage ranked 11^th.  This season, they slipped a bit (37-3-1), their .902 winning percentage almost unchanged and also ranked 11^th.

Then and Now II

This is the first meeting of these teams in the postseason, but it is not as if they do not know one another.  They have a history dating back to the Southeast Division days.  It has been a successful history from the Caps’ point of view.  Washington has not lost consecutive games to the Hurricanes since 2013, when they lost games in October and December.  In 23 games between the clubs since then, the Caps are 17-5-1.

That record includes a four-game sweep of this year’s season series that was not so much dominating as it was consistently good enough:

How Caps of you to notice…

In the Alex Ovechkin era, the Caps are a team that dominates opponents on home ice in the regular season.  In the playoffs, not so much.  Since 2007-2008, when the Caps reached the postseason for the first time with Ovechkin on the roster, the Caps are 305-119-51 on home ice in the regular season, but only 34-28 in the playoffs.  The postseason winning percentage (.548) ranks 11^th in the league over that span. 

How Caps of you to notice II…

In 121 postseason games in franchise history, the Caps have recorded more than 40 shots on goal 15 times.  Only once did they do so and win a game in regulation, beating the New York Islanders, 5-1 with 41 shots on goal on April 23, 2015.  Their overall record in such games is 4-11, three of the four wins and six of the 11 losses coming in overtime.  Oddly enough, the Caps have allowed more than 40 shots on goal to opponents 15 times in their postseason history and have a record of 6-9, four of the wins and eight of the losses coming in overtime.

Never Ever…Again

We made the point last year at this time, and we will make it again.  The Capitals have never swept a best-of-seven playoff series.  Only four times have they won a series in five games (1990 against the New York Rangers, 1998 against the Ottawa Senators, 2011 against the Rangers, and last year's Cup final against Vegas).

The Magic Number

The Caps have scored four or more goals 33 times in 121 postseason games in their history.  They lost only one of them in regulation, that being Game 1 of last year’s Stanley Cup final to the Vegas Golden Knights, 6-4.  They have one other loss in that situation, a 5-4 overtime loss to Columbus in Game 2 of last year’s first round series.

The Cast of Skaters

The big difference in scoring offense on an individual level came from sources that should make Caps fans feel pretty good about the future.  Tom Wilson improved by eight goals from last year to this (from 14 to 22), while Jakub Vrana upped his goal total by 11 (from 13 to 24).  That 19-goal improvement by those two players is more than the total year-to-year improvement of 18 goals.  To that add the seven-goal improvement by T.J. Oshie (from 18 to 25) and Brett Connolly (from 15 to 22), and the improved contributions by the forwards has been considerable, even with Lars Eller dropping off some (from 18 to 13 goals).

On the back end, the Caps were off a bit in goal scoring from last season, down from 39 to 35 among the defensemen.  That is the product of Dmitry Orlov’s struggles to get anything to the back of the net.  He did not have a goal over his last 34 games this season (he did have 14 assists), going 0-for-43 shooting after posting three goals on 58 shots over his first 48 games.  Dry spells have not been a problem for John Carlson.  His scoring numbers are not much changed from last season (15-53-68) to this (13-57-70), and that is a good thing.  He and San Jose’s Brent Burns are the only league defensemen to have topped 65 points in each of the last two seasons.  And, while Carlson’s plus-minus rating was “even” last season, this year he was plus-21, his best year in that category since 2010-2011, when he was also plus-21.  Carlson led the Caps in total scoring against Carolina this season with seven points (2-5-7).  The skaters’ numbers over the four-game season series play out as follows for each team:

Working with a net

In the expansion era of the NHL, starting in 1967-1968, there have been 49 goaltenders appearing in at least 50 postseason games.  Of that group, the Capitals’ Braden Holtby ranks third in goals against average (2.04) and second in save percentage (.929).  Only five active goaltenders have appeared in more postseason games than Holtby (82), and if things go well, he could be third on that list by the second round, depending on how Nashville’s Pekka Rinne fares.  He is fifth in wins (45) and could also find himself in third place on that list by the second round.  Further, he has been dominant against Carolina, sporting a career 16-6-0, 1.98, .937 record with two shutouts, a record that includes a perfect 4-0-0 record this season. 

On the other side, the expectation is that Petr Mrazek will get the call to open the series against Washington.  Mrazek is in his first season with Carolina after spending parts of six seasons in Detroit with the Red Wings and 17 games with Philadelphia last year.  He had a good year with the Hurricanes, posting a goals against average of 2.39, his best since a 2.33 GAA with the Red Wings in 2015-2016, and a save percentage of .914, also his best since that 2015-2016 season with Detroit (.921).  He did benefit, however, from a relatively light workload.  He faced only 27.8 shots per 60 minutes. 

An odd fact about Mrazek.  He has 11 playoff games of work in his career, the first ten of which were against the Tampa Bay Lightning while he was with Detroit.  He was 4-7 in those 11 games.  In the four wins, three came via shutout, and he stopped 110 of 112 shots (.982 save percentage).  In the seven losses, he allowed 131 goals on 147 shots (.891).  But since he last faced Tampa Bay in April 2016, he has appeared in only one postseason game, logging 31 minutes while stopping 12 of 14 shots in mop-up duty in a 7-0 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins as a Philadelphia Flayer in April 2018.

Mrazek has had most of the work against the Caps this season, going 0-2-0, 2.56, .915 in 117 minutes over two appearances.  If he falters, there is Curtis McElhinney, who has two playoff game appearances nine years apart in which he stopped 28 of 33 total shots faced (.848 save percentage).  He has one win in nine career regular season appearances against Washington (1-5-0, 3.67, .866).

Who’s Hot ‘n’ Not?

For the Capitals over the last ten games of the regular season…

• Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie led the team with four goals apiece.
• Oshie and Evgeny Kuznetsov led the team in points with nine apiece, Oshie going 4-5-9 and Kuznetsov going 3-6-9.
• Nic Dowd had two of the team’s six game-winning goals, the only Capital with more than one.
  
• Matt Niskanen had more shots on goal without lighting the red lamp than any other Capital (0-for-21).
• Alex Ovechkin slowed down at the end, posting three goals on 48 shots (6.3 percent).
• Tom Wilson had a team-high 13 giveaways over the last ten games.

For the Hurricanes over the last ten games of the regular season…

• Defensemen Dougie Hamilton led the team in goals with five.
• Jordan Staal and Teuvo Teravainen led the team in points with ten apiece, Stall going 4-6-10 and Teravainen going 3-7-10.
• Another defenseman – Justin Faulk – led the team down the ten-game stretch with two game-winning goals, the only Hurricane with more than one.
  
• Sebatian Aho did not record a goal on 24 shots in the last ten games.
• Forward Lucas Wallmark was a team-worst minus-5 in the last ten games.
• Justin Williams was charged with ten giveaways in the last ten games, most on the club.

Looks at Rooks

Last season the Caps dressed three rookies for more than 20 postseason games – Chandler Stephenson (24 games, 2-5-7, plus-3), Jakub Vrana (23 games, 3-5-8, plus-5), and Christian Djoos (22 games, 0-1-1, plus-5).  And this was after the Caps dressed four rookies for at least 50 games in the regular season (the three mentioned plus Madison Bowey) and nine in all over 82 games.  It did not seem to hurt the club.

With so few roster changes this season, the Caps had fewer occasions to dress rookies for any lengthy stretches.  Forward Travis Boyd did appear in 53 games, and defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler dressed for 26 games.  Tyler Lewington and Nathan Walker dressed for a handful of games as well.  Of this group, Boyd would appear most likely to get ice time, and his regular season (5-15-20, plus-6) suggests he could be a contributor in a limited, likely fourth line role.  His 0.38 points per game was 15^th among rookies appearing in at least 50 games.

Carolina is at the other end of the use spectrum for rookies.  Ten rookie skaters dressed for the Hurricanes this season, Andrei Svechnikov (82 games) and Warren Foegele (77 games) being regular fixtures in the lineup.  Svechnikov will certainly get some consideration for the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie.  He tied for third in this year’s rookie class in goals scored (20, with Toronto’s Andreas Johnsson and was tied for seventh in points (37, with Chicago’s Dominik Kahun).  What he did not do was produce a lot on the Hurricane power play, despite averaging 1:55 per game in ice time.  He had only one power play point over his last 23 games.

Foegele did not come into the league with the second-overall pick buzz of Svechnikov, and the third-round pick (67^th overall in the 2014 entry draft) has had a bit of an uneven go of it.  He did finish the season with 10 goals, one of 13 skaters in double digits for the Hurricanes, but he was a team worst (and by a large margin) minus-17.  He had a bit of a rough go of it down the stretch.  He did record goals in each of his last two games of the regular season, but over his last 29 games was still just 4-1-5, minus-6.

Special Considerations

The teams have almost identical special teams indices, but they get there is somewhat different ways.  Washington has a better power play (20.8 percent) than Carolina (17.8 percent), but a worse penalty kill (78.9 percent) than the Hurricanes (81.6 percent) in the regular season to get to a special teams index of 99.7 to 99.4 for Carolina.

Home ice has been kind to the Caps’ power play in terms of getting opportunities.  They had 133 power play chances in the regular season, sixth-most in the league.  When coupled with Carolina’s 125 shorthanded situations faced on the road, which ranks in the top half of the league (tied for 13^th most), the Caps might benefit from getting some man advantage chances.  The Caps had six power plays on home ice in the season series, converting one (16.7 percent).

On the other side of the ledger, Carolina had 128 power play chances on the road this season, fifth-most in the league, converting 25 of them (19.5 percent), a slightly better conversion rate than their overall performance.  Adding to that concern, the Caps were shorthanded 130 times this season, the fourth-highest total in the league, and allowed 30 goals, tied for the most power play goals allowed on home ice in the league (with Colorado).  If Carolina is to break through in Washington, it might be on the basis of the Caps being undisciplined.  The good news is that Carolina was 0-for-4 on the power play in their two regular season games in Washington this season.

When the series shifts to Carolina, things are a bit different.  The Hurricanes have not had a high volume of power play chances at home this season, the 119 chances tied for 21^st in the league.  They did little with the chances they had, too, converting only 19 for a 16.0 percent power play on home ice, 23^rd best in the league.  The Caps can, however, get in some trouble on the road in this area.  They were shorthanded 131 times this season, 10^th in the league.  Their power play goals allowed (25/13^th) and penalty kill rate (80.9 percent/12^th) were similarly ranked.

Flipping the script, Washington had an inability to generate power play chances on the road.  They had 103 this season, fourth-fewest in the league.  They converted on 19 occasions, the 18.4 percent conversion rate ranked 19^th in the league.  For Carolina’s part, they did a fair job of limiting power play chances on home ice, the 114 shorthanded situations faced tied for 14^th-fewest in the league.  Their penalty kill rate on home ice (80.7 percent) was middle-of-the-road (tied for 15^th-best).

Behind the Bench

The head coaches in this series took different paths to get to similar places.  Washington’s Todd Reirden and Carolina’s Rod Brind’Amour are both in their first year behind an NHL bench.  Both were players in the NHL, Reirden being a less renowed player, appearing in 183 regular season games for four teams and five postseason games for the St. Louis Blues over two seasons.  On the other hand, Brind’Amour skated for 20 seasons with Philadelphia and Carolina, recording 235 goals and 601 points in almost 1,500 regular season games while winning a Cup with the Hurricanes in 2006. What Brind’Amout does not have is Stanley Cup playoff behind an NHL bench despite starting his coaching career as an assistant and development with Carolina in 2011. That experience in the postseason as a coach is something Reirden brings as an assistant in both the Pittsburgh and Washington organizations, helping Barry Trotz to his first Stanley Cup win as a head coach last season.   

Each coach comes from a different place in terms of their assumption of duties.  Brind’Amour took over a team that had not tasted the postseason since 2009.  He was – and is – familiar with the organization, but he had to inject a sense of purpose and focus to raise this group to the next level.  By any measure, he succeeded in that.

Reirden’s challenge was more subtle.  He was bequeathed a team that won a championship and made few changes in the off-season.  The temptation here is to say that all he had to do was show up and not over-coach what was already a winning formula.  How many times does that work?  Reirden, a low-key sort for public consumption, gave the club a fair amount of slack, and the veteran group did not appear to abuse it.  The product of that is a team that, like last year’s, does not panic in the face of adversity.  One way in which this evidenced itself was a slightly better record this season when trailing after two periods of games, where the Caps earned points in ten of 27 such games (4-17-6) while earning points in only five of 23 such games last season (3-18-2).

The Caps will win if…

They play close to their average level of skill and focus.  That means they cannot take Carolina lightly.  One way fans will be able to tell if the Caps are successful in this regard is how they handle Games 1 and 2 at home.  Last season they lost those first two games on home ice against Columbus and rallied to win the series on their way to the Cup.  Home ice has been a problem in the postseason for the Caps in recent years, and how well they take care of business, being a veteran teams with championship experience, will be an indicator of their focus and effort level against an opponent who, while recording fine underlying numbers this season, has a lot of players with little postseason experience who might look at this year’s trip to the playoffs as “it’s just nice to be here.”

The Hurricanes will win if…

Petr Mrazek can visualize the Capitals in Tampa Bay jerseys.  Only twice in seven seasons has Mrazek played in more than half of his team’s games, and he has never started more than 49 games in any of those seven seasons.  He is certainly capable of posting good numbers; it is the limited exposure he has gotten that is an issue.  And, he is facing the fifth-best scoring offense in the league.  What will be interesting to see is if he can extend his magic on home ice.  In his last six games at home, he was 6-0-0, 1.15, .963, with one shutout.  If he can keep up that level of performance, and either he or his teammates steal a game early in Washington, the Capitals could have their work cut out for them.

In the end…

The Caps are battle-tested in a way Carolina is not, they are deeper, they are more skilled, and the have a substantial goaltending advantage.  Until the last game of the season, a meaningless affair with the seeding already settled, they were one of, if not the best team since the trading deadline.  Only Tampa Bay had more wins (15) after the trading deadline than the Caps (13, tied with Carolina and Boston).  The great unknown for the Caps here is how they handle the role of defending champion, one that the club has never experienced and that only two skaters on the roster (Brooks Orpik and Carl Hagelin) have experienced in their careers before this season.  It comes down to how well the Caps focus and take care of business on their side more than anything Carolina does on theirs.

Capitals in six

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 27

The Washington Capitals wrapped up the regular season in Week 27 in what was among the stranger weeks of the season.  They started against the only team in the East they had not defeated in the regular season, faced a team desperate to remain in the playoff race, and wrapped things up with a meaningless game against their old coach.  Along the way, the Captain added to his career trophy take.

Record: 1-2-0

The Caps entered the week trying to hold off the New York Islanders in the race for the Metropolitan Division title.  The first order of business was facing the Florida Panthers, to whom the Caps had already lost twice this season, once in extra time.  It was part of a longer string of frustration against the Panthers, a 3-5-2 record over their previous ten meetings.  The Caps started poorly, training at the first intermission, 1-0, were steamrolled in the second, falling behind 4-0 after 40 minutes, and then mounted a frantic comeback, coming within a shot off a post in the late stages of the third period before allowing an empty-net goal and losing, 5-3.

The middle game of the week against the Montreal Canadiens was a matter of facing down a team that was running out of time and chances to reach the postseason, sitting in the ninth spot in the Eastern Conference with eight teams advancing to the playoffs.  The Caps scored late in the first period, endured a momentum changing goal to tie the game even later in the first period, before getting a goal from fourth-liner Nic Dowd in the second period and shutting the Canadiens down in the third period to grab a 2-1 decision.

That win clinched the Metro for the Caps and rendered the final game of the week and the regular season irrelevant but for final statistics.  The Caps substituted freely, Dmitrij Jaskin, Jonas Siegtenthaler, Chandler Stephenson, and Pheonix Copley replacing Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson, T.J. Oshie, and Braden Holtby in the lineup.  The rearranged roster failed to score against the league’s best scoring defense, and the Caps dropped Game 82, 3-0.  It was the fifth time in the last eight full seasons (not including the shortened 2012-2013 season) that the Caps were shut out in Game 82, the fourth time on home ice.

Offense: 1.67/game (season: 3.34/5th)

The Caps opened the week without a goal in the first 30:55, scored five goals in the next 52:43, and then went dark for the last 97:02.  As it was, those five goals were scored by five different players – Backstrom, Dowd, Jakub Vrana, Lars Eller, and Evgeny Kuznetsov.  The five goals in three games was the weakest three-game stretch of offense since January, when the Caps scored three goals in Games 45-47 in losses to St. Louis, Nashville, and the Islanders.  That was part of a four-game run in which the Caps scored only four goals in four games, that streak started when the Caps lost a 2-1 overtime decision to Columbus.

Twelve different players had points for the week, but only one – Oshie – had a multi-point week.  He had a pair of assists in the loss to Florida.  It was his 17^th multi-point game this season, tying him with Backstrom and Kuznetsov for third-most on the team.  John Carlson had an assist in the 5-3 loss to Florida, giving him 70 points for the season, the first time in his career he reached that level.  With the 68 points he posted last season, he joined San Jose’s Brent Burns as the only defensemen in the league to post at least 65 points in each of the last two seasons.  Carlson finished fourth among defensemen in points this season.

One player who did not record a goal was Alex Ovechkin.  Nevertheless, he won his eighth Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy as the league’s top goal scorer, his 51 goals holding off the fast-closing Leon Draisaitl of the Edmonton Oilers, who recorded his 50^th goal in his team’s season finale.  Ovechkin has won the trophy in six of the past seven seasons.  His eight seasons as the league’s top goal scorer now stands alone in league history, surpassing the seven seasons in which Bobby Hull led the league in goals.

Defense: 3.00/game (season: 3.02/T-17th)

The Caps ran into a buzz-saw to start the week in the Panthers, who posted six goals in four of their previous ten games on home ice and averaged 4.3 goals per game on home ice over that stretch.  That the Caps allowed five goals, four of them on 33 shots against a live goaltender, was not entirely a surprise.  What was, was the mix.  The Panthers managed only 24 shots at even strength for the game (including the shot that yielded the empty net goal), but they added seven power play shots and another three while shorthanded. 

And then something happened that had not happened in almost six weeks.  When the Caps allowed Montreal to post 34 shots on goal, it was the first time since late February – since the trading deadline, in fact – that the Caps allowed more than 30 shots on goal in consecutive games.  Montreal’s shot volume was more conventional, 33 of them coming at even strength.  The Habs recorded 70 shot attempts at 5-on-5 in that game, that total almost equal to that of the other two games of the week combined (71).  Those 70 shot attempts at fives tied for the most allowed by the Caps this season, matching the 70 shot attempts that the Caps allowed on three other occasions, twice against Toronto and once against Pittsburgh (the only other time this season the Caps allowed that many on home ice).

That two-game total to begin and end the week included holding the Islanders to 38 shot attempts at 5-on-5.  It was the second straight time that the Caps held the Isles under 40 shot attempts at fives after allowing 46 in each of the first two games the teams met this season.  The Caps seemed to solve the Islanders in that regard, having posted more than 40 shot attempts in each of those two games while being held under 40 in their first two meetings.

Goaltending: 2.41 / .922 (season:  2.84/ .909 / 4 shutouts)

In a reversal of roles, it was Pheonix Copley’s turn to take most of the minutes in Week 27, starting the first and last games of the week.  He was not much bad as he was inconsistent.  He had a 24-minute stretch against Florida in which he allowed four goals on 18 shots, and that is what tanked his week.  But for that unfortunate stretch, he stopped 36 of 38 shots, a .947 save percentage.  He could not do much about the Islanders, given the lack of offense for the Caps, making his 21 saves on 23 shots a decent effort in a lost cause.  The two losses for the week broke a personal six-game winning streak for Copley.

Braden Holtby got the call in the middle game of the week and was superb.  He allowed one goal on 34 shots, the third time in five games he allowed only one goal.  In those last five appearances, Holtby stopped 144 of 152 shots (.947), winning all five.  Holtby finished the season allowing one or no goals in 16 games, the tenth-highest total by a Caps goaltender in team history and the fourth time he posted more than 15 such games.

Power Play: 0-for-5/0.0 percent (season: 20.8 percent/12th)

The Caps are heading into the postseason struggling on the power play.  Week 27 was perhaps their worst performance of the season.  Five chances in three games was a low for a three-game week this season.  It was the first time since Week 14 that they went without a single power play goal and only the third time this season they did so. 

It was even worse. The Caps did not record a power play shot on goal on any of their three power plays in six minutes over the first two games of the week.  The did record four shots on goal on the man advantage against the Islanders, but with a revamped lineup, the shots from Matt Niskanen, Tom Wilson and Lars Eller (two) were not quite as effective as they might have been coming from the sticks of Alex Ovechkin (who did not record a power play shot on goal in that game), Nicklas Backstrom, or John Carlson.

For the Caps, it was the culmination of a five week spell in which the power play dried up.  They went 7-for-48 over 17 games in those five weeks (14.9 percent).  They did not post a week over 20 percent in that span, hitting 20 percent once (Week 26 on 2-for-10 conversions).

Penalty Killing: 3-for-4/75.0 percent (season: 78.9 percent/24th)

The Caps almost made up for their poor power play performance with a decent penalty killing effort.  Of course, with only four shorthanded situations faced, it could be said that the best penalty kill is the one not taken.  Four shorthanded situations faced in three games was the team’s low for a week of three or more games this season.

It started in sketchy fashion, though.  Florida managed seven shot on goal in four minutes of power play time, but Pheonix Copley turned all of them aside.  The team was more disciplined as the week went on, although Montreal needed only 35 seconds to score the week’s lone power play goal against on their only power play shot on goal.

The Caps shut down the Islanders in the last game of the week, allowing only one unsuccessful shot on goal in four minutes of shorthanded ice time.

Faceoffs: 79-for-158 / 50.0 percent (season: 45.7 percent/31st)

By the Caps’ standards this season, Week 27 was a good one in the faceoff circle overall.  They finished at 50 percent for the week.  However, in the detail things were not as good.  They topped 50 percent only once in three games, that being against Florida to open the week (32-for-61/52.5 percent).  And, they won only the defensive zone (35-for-63/55.6 percent) and the neutral zone (27-for-53/50.9 percent).  Their winning percentages dropped in each of the last two games of the week (to 49.0 and then to 47.8 percent), and they were weak in the offensive end (17-for-42/40.5 percent).

Individually, Lars Eller had a fine week, going 50 percent or better in all three zones and one of only two Caps to take at least ten draws in each zone for the week.  The other player to take at least ten draws in each zone did not fare as well.  Evgeny Kuznetsov did hit 50 percent in defensive zone draws (5-for-10), but he was under 35 percent in the offensive and neutral zones and finished just 12-for-34 for the week (35.3 percent).Nicklas Backstrom led the team in overall winning percentage for the week (60.6 percent; minimum: ten draws taken), although he was underwater in the offensive end.

Goals by Period:

When you score five goals in three games, chances are that this category is not going to have a good look to it.  It did not.  The Caps lost both the first and second periods for the week, and that they broke even in the third period was entirely a product of desperation after falling behind Florida, 4-0, after two periods of their game.

If there is a concern in this area, it is in the drop-off in goals scored by period.  The Caps finished the season fourth in the league in first period goals (87), second in second period goals scored (103).  However, they were 18^th in third period goals scored (79).  Making that last number worse is that the Caps allowed 92 third period goals, seventh-most in the league, and leaving them with a minus-13 third period goal differential for the season.

Year-over-Year:

Given how closely this year’s team tracked with last year’s on a year-over-year basis over the course of the season, it is no surprise that as the season comes to a close, this one closely resembles last year’s in a number of categories.  One fewer win, one more extra time loss, and one fewer standings point is a thin margin of difference in results.  Over 82 games, the difference probably comes down to one second, that being the goal scored by San Jose’s Evander Kane on January 22^nd to tie a game the Caps had well in hand half-way through the third period.  The Caps lost that game in overtime.  Had they held on in that game, they could have finished this season with precisely the same record they had last year.

Overall, the team did better at even strength than last season, in goals scored and shot attempts.  It was on special teams that this year’s team slipped a bit from last season.  In other areas, particularly in the edgier areas – hits, blocked shots, turnovers, penalties – this year’s team was an improvement over last year’s squad, if only a slight one.

In the end…

So far, so good.  The Caps got through the regular season phase of the season in good shape, although the season-ending injury to Michal Kempny will present a challenge going forward.  This team has good offensive balance with seven 20-goal scorers and eight players with at least 40 points.  On that note, Alex Ovechkin will have a chance to do something that has not been done in a long time.  He recorded his eighth 50-goal campaign, an historic achievement.  But no 50-goal scorer has played for a Stanley Cup champion since Joe Sakic scored 54 goals in 2000-2001 for the Colorado Avalanche, who won the second Cup in franchise history that season.  At the other end of the ice, Braden Holtby looks to have adopted his playoff focus, which is going to be essential to maintain as the team goes forward.  Unlike last season, there is no doubt as to his readiness going into the postseason.  This team looks as ready as it can be to open its defense of the Stanley Cup championship in earnest.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Braden Holtby (1-0-0, 1.00, .971)
• Second Star: Nic Dowd (1-0-1, plus-1, game-winning goal, 56.0 percent faceoff wins)
• Third Star: Lars Eller (1-0-1, even, six shots on goal, 54.9 percent faceoff wins, six hits)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 82: Islanders at Capitals, April 6th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

And so, 185 days after it started with a Stanley Cup banner raising, it ends with a chance to defend that championship.  For the Washington Capitals, the regular season of their defense of a Stanley Cup championship ends on Saturday night when they host the New York Islanders at Capital One Arena.  Washington will enter the game on a high note, having clinched their fourth straight Metropolitan Division title on Thursday night against the Montreal Canadiens.  Meanwhile, the Islanders have clinched a first round matchup against, well, somebody.  It is not yet clear, even as the season heads into its final night just who – or where – the Islanders will play to open the postseason next week.  In that regard, the motivation would seem to favor the Islanders, who are still playing for home ice advantage in the first round and with at least one point in this contest would have it.

The Islanders have done it with being stingy in allowing goals, the best scoring defense in the league, and the starts in net.  New York is one of those teams that, if they do have a goaltending pecking order, it is not written in stone.  Robin Lehner and Thomas Griess have split the starts almost down the middle, Lehner getting 42 and Greiss getting 39 as the teams head into the final night of the regular season.  Lehner has had a fine season, a career year in some respects.  His wins (24), goals against average (2.18) and save percentage (.928) are career bests (minimum: 20 games), as is his total of five shutouts, which matched his total over his previous two seasons, spent with the Buffalo Sabres.  He has had intermittent injury or other issues this seasons, missing six games on three separate occasions -- back spasms last November, another pair of games to an undisclosed reason in December, and an upper body injury last month.  In his return from that latest injury, Lehner struggled in allowing five goals on 39 shots in a 5-0 loss to the Boston Bruins.  But since then, Lehner is 4-1-0, 1.63, .948, with one shutout in six appearances (one no-decision).  Lehner is 1-3-1, 2.60, .913 in five career appearances against the Caps.

Greiss is having a career year of his own.  His 2.28 goals against average and .927 save percentage are career-bests, as are his five shutouts, which match his total over his previous three seasons in New York.  And, he has been better on the road this season, all things considered (11-7-0, 2.20, .933, two shutouts), than he has been at home (12-7-2, 2.34, .920, three shutouts).  However, Greiss’ season is largely built on a 15 game stretch from mid-December to early March in which he was 8-4-1, 1.73, .945, with three shutouts.  Apart from that surge, he is a much more average 15-10-1, 2.57, .917, with two shutouts in 28 appearances.  Greiss is 3-3-1, 2.15, .927, with one career shutout against the Capitals.

Since the trading deadline in late February, the Islanders have struggled (11-9-0) and have struggled to score (2.25 goals per game).  Someone is going to have to step up in the postseason and bear a heavier scoring burden.  Mathew Barzal immediately comes to mind.  Barzal has 11 points in those 20 games since the trading deadline, second on the team, but he has only one goal in that span.  The slowdown cost Barzal whatever chance he had to match or surpass last year’s Calder Trophy-winning rookie season (22-63-85, plus-1), although his scoring line of 18-44-62 remains impressive for a second-year player.  Still, the goal scoring does matter.  New York is 10-3-1 in the 14 games this season in which Barzal scored a goal.  And it is that goal scoring, not mere offensive engagement that matters.  Barzal has had 28 games this season in which he recorded three of more shots on goal, but the Islanders are just 13-11-4 in those games.  He might be a sophomore, but the club does depend on him for offense.  Barzal is 1-4-5, minus-4, in eight career games against Washington.

1.  Since the trading deadline in late February, no team in the league has fewer power play goals than the Islanders (three in 20 games).  Their 6.3 percent power play is worst in the league since then.

2.  New York’s penalty kill is not much better over the same span of 20 games.  Their 77.3 percent penalty kill is better than only six teams since the trading deadline.

3.  Unsurprisingly, the Islanders have been an inefficient offensive team overall.  Their 7.4 shooting percentage over their last 20 games is fifth-worst in the league.

4.  The Islanders have been disciplined in one respect.  Over their last 20 games, only four teams in the Eastern Conference have taken fewer penalties than New York (56), and only two have taken fewer minor penalties than New York (47) – Toronto (46 in 20 games) and Columbus (41 in 19 games).

5.  Physical, gritty, or spending too much time chasing the puck?  The Islanders have 564 credited hits over their last 20 games, most in the league, and their 325 blocked shots are second (Colorado: 347).  And, they have been charged with 317 giveaways, second-most in the league.

1.  Only Tampa Bay has a better record since the trading deadline than the Caps (14-5-0/28 points) than the Caps (13-4-1/27 points), the Caps having played one fewer game.

2.  In what might be an especially good sign, the Caps have done it with defense, the 43 goals allowed being fifth-fewest in that span of games and second-fewest in the Eastern Conference (Pittsburgh: 41 goals allowed).

3.  Washington, who struggled with possession numbers over much of the first two-thirds of the season, are eighth in the league in shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 since the trading deadline (53.11 percent).

4.  Only three teams in the league have scored more even-strength goals since the trading deadline than the Caps (54): Tampa Bay (57), Calgary (56), and Florida (55), all in more games than Washington.

5.  The Capitals have not scored an overtime goal since the trading deadline, one of nine teams not to do so.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Brock Nelson

Since the trading deadline, Brock Nelson is tied for second on the club in goals (six, with Jordan Eberle) and leads the team in points (12).  The odd part of his scoring is that he has only two power play points (both assists), despite leading the team in power play ice time per game in that span (2:29).  It is a reflection of the general weakness of the Islander power play over the last six weeks.  However, he does remain in a position to match or establish a new career high in goals scored, the 25 he has this season one behind his total (26) in 2015-2016.  His 28 assists and 53 points overall are already career bests, while his overall scoring line is a pleasant improvement over a relatively disappointing effort last season (19-16-35).  The Islanders have done well with Nelson getting larger chunks of ice time.  In the 13 games in which he skated at least 20 minutes this season, the club is 8-3-2, while they are just 9-10-0 in the 19 games in which he skated less than 16:45.  Nelson is 6-5-11, minus-5, in 23 career games against the Capitals.

Washington: The Press Box Boys

With the Metropolitan Division title in their grasp, this could be a chance for players who have had little chance to display their talents over the last six weeks do so in the season finale in front of the home fans.  For example:

Dmitrij Jaskin has not appeared in a game since February 17^th and has only one point (a goal) in 12 games since early February.  He has only one goal in 18 games on home ice this season for the Caps.  It would be nice to see him rewarded for his patience. 

Jonas Siegenthaler last appeared in a game for the Caps on February 5^th, against Vancouver.  He was assigned to the Hershey Bears in the AHL four days later, where he went 2-2-4, plus-7, in 20 games since his reassignment. Injury to Michal Kempny led to his recall, and he could get another chance to get his first NHL goal in the finale (he has four assists in 25 games with the Caps this season).

Chandler Stephenson has been on the edge of playing and not playing over much of the season.  Since January 15^th he has appeared in 20 of 36 games, going 0-2-2, minus-6.  In some respects it has been a disappointing year for Stephenson, who dressed for all 24 games of the Caps’ Stanley Cup playoff run last spring.  It would be nice to see him shake some of that off and perhaps even get some power play ice time to give him a chance to light the lamp.

Pheonix Copley had, in some respects, the most difficult job to assume for the Caps going into the season.  Last year, Philipp Grubauer was arguably the best backup goalie in the league, and he was named the team’s starter for Game 1 of the postseason, an unexpected development, given he played behind a former Vezina Trophy winner in Braden Holtby.  Copley, starting his second tour in the organization (he did not play with the Caps in his first), came into the season having played in two NHL games, started one, and was looking for his first win in the league.  And, he was doing this for the defending Stanley Cup champions.  He acquitted himself well, going 16-6-3 in 26 games with a 2.94 goals against average and a .904 save percentage with his first NHL shutout.  Getting a curtain call in Game 82 would be a cherry on the sundae for his regular season, even if it is, if form holds and hope is realized, his last appearance of the season.

In the end…

Konstantin Stanislavski, the legendary theater actor and acting theorist, once famously remarked, "there are no small parts, only small actors."  It is as true in team sports as it is in acting.  Not everyone has the talent of a Nicklas Backstrom or the theatrical flair that brings fans out of their seats like Alex Ovechkin.  Some players toil in obscurity, the mortar that helps make the bricks a solid structure, and those efforts deserve respect and reward when circumstances permit.  Saturday night might be a chance for the role players’ turn in the spotlight.

Capitals 4 – Islanders 3

A TWO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 81: Capitals 2 - Canadiens 1

The Washington Capitals took the ice for the penultimate game of the regular season on Thursday night when they hosted the Montreal Canadiens at Capital One Arena.  It was a hard-fought game that had more than a little playoff feel to it.  Montreal pushed hard, but the Caps pushed back harder, getting a goal from a fourth-liner to clinch another division title, winning by a 2-1 margin.

First Period

Evgeny Kuznetsov had a fine chance in the first 20 seconds of the contest, breaking in alone on goalie Carey Price, but he ran out of room, and his attempt to bank the puck off Price from below the goal line failed to succeed.  The Caps did not get another shot attempt for the next 4:14, until Alex Ovechkin got a shot on Price.

Montreal dominated territory for most of the rest of the period, but it was the Caps striking first in the last 90 seconds.  It was just some basic hockey.  A hard forecheck by Carl Hagelin on Christian Folin as he was circling out from behind the Montreal net separated the Canadien from the puck.  Brett Connolly collected it and centered it to Lars Eller between the hash marks.  Eller had time to pick his spot, snapping it past Price’s left pad to make it 1-0 at the 18:36 mark.

The Caps took a penalty with just over a minute left in the period, and it cost them.  With Nicklas Backstrom in the penalty box for a high-sticking penalty, Shea Weber was all alone to the right of goalie Braden Holtby to jump on a loose puck and snap it past Holtby’s blocker to make it 1-1 with 28 seconds left in the period.

Montreal had a chance late, courtesy of Brendan Gallagher, but it was foiled, and the teams went to the locker room tied after 20 minutes.

-- Montreal had a 15-9 edge in shots on goal and dominated shot attempts, 27-11.

-- Lars Eller led the Caps with three shots on goal; he and Carl Hagelin had three shot attempts apiece.

-- Washington held a 14-7 edge in hits, reflecting Montreal’s possession edge.

Second Period

Montreal opened the period with pressure, but once again, it was the Caps who struck first.  Andre Burakovsky took advantage of a turnover at the Montreal blue line to control the puck along the right wing wall.  He centered it for Nic Dowd, who kicked the puck to his forehand, and with Travis Boyd skating through the low slot to create a distraction, Dowd snapped a shot over Price’s glove and under the crossbar to make it 2-1, 2:58 into the period.

The pace was at times furious, but there was no more scoring, and the teams skated off at the end of the period with the Caps holding a 2-1 lead.

-- Washington had an 11-7 shots on goal advantage in the period, but the Canadiens had 21 shot attempts to the Caps’ 17.

-- Matt Niskanen had five blocked shots through two periods.  No other Capital had more than one.

-- The defensive pair of Brooks Orpik and Christian Djoos were both plus-2 through two periods, although neither had a point of their own.

Third Period

Both teams had chances, and Montreal played with ferocity in the last half of the period, but the Caps played a smart game, getting pucks deep and forcing the Canadiens to go 200 feet on most trips up ice.  And when Nicklas Backstrom nudged the puck into the neutral zone as the clock hit zero, it was enough for the Caps to win, 2-1, and win their fourth consecutive Metropolitan Division title.

Other stuff…

-- Braden Holtby won his fifth straight decision.  He stopped 33 of 34 shots, making it 169 saves on 179 shots over his last six contests (.944 save percentage).

-- Alex Ovechkin finished with a team-high five shots on goal.

-- In an odd turn, T.J. Oshie did not record a shot attempt.  He and defensemen Nick Jensen were the only Caps to do so.

-- Tom Wilson and Brooks Orpik were the big boppers with seven and six credited hits, respectively.

-- Wilson was credited with four takeaways to lead the team.

-- Montreal finished with a 72-44 edge in shot attempts.

-- The Caps had a 26-25 edge in faceoffs. It is the third straight game in which the Caps won more than 50 percent of their draws, the first time they were over 50 percent in three straight games since Games 15-17 against Columbus, Arizona, and Minnesota in November.

-- Lars Eller finished plus-1.  That make 16 straight home games in which he is even or better in plus-minus rating.

-- Caps…one power play, no shots.  Canadiens…one power play, one shot, one goal.

-- Did the Caps button things up in the end?  You decide…Montreal did not get a shot on goal after they pulled Carey Price at the end.

In the end… 

The Caps are Metro Division champs, again.  Their fourth straight title.  This matches the four straight titles that the Caps won in the old Southeast Division from 2007-2008 through 2010-2011.  They can now rest players in the finale against the Islanders on Saturday, give some guys some ice time they did not get over the last six weeks, and let the other teams worry about seeding.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 81: Canadiens at Capitals, April 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return home for their final two games of the regular season, opening their final home stand hosting the Montreal Canadiens at Capital One Arena on Thursday night.  The Caps, who had a four game winning streak before visiting the Florida Panthers in their last road game of the season, laid an egg, falling behind by a 4-0 margin before dropping 5-3 decision.  Washington does bring a 9-1-2 record over their last 12 home games into this contest.

Montreal has won two in a row and is 6-1-1 in their last eight games, continuing their late-season fight with Columbus and Carolina for the two wild card spots in the postseason.  Center Max Domi has been the leading producer on offense in this late run, his four goals and nine points leading the club over the last eight games.  Domi, in his fourth NHL season and first in Montreal after spending his first three with the Arizona Coyotes, established personal bests in goals (28), assists (43), and points (71). 

His game this season has been characterized by balance.  Going 14-21-35, plus-11, at home; and posting a scoring line on the road of 14-22-36, plus-9.  He has been consistent as well, going no more than three games without a point this season.  His contributions have been important to the Canadien cause, the team going 15-7-1 in the 23 games in which he scored a goal this season.  If there is a soft spot here, it is that Domi has not been particularly productive against the Metropolitan Division.  He is 7-11-18, even, in 23 games against the Metro this season, a goal and an assist of that line coming in two games against the Caps.  He is 1-5-6, plus-3, in eight career games against Washington.

The last two seasons have been challenging for defenseman Shea Weber.  He carries the fifth largest cap hit of any defensemen in the league ($7.88 million; source: capfriendly.com) and is signed through the 2025-2026 season, when he will be 41 years old, but he has been absent for long stretches over the past two seasons.  He missed 56 games last season to lower body and foot injuries, and this season he missed the first 24 games to a knee injury that required surgery. 

Weber's presence matters.  Over the last two seasons, Montreal is 42-34-6 with Weber in the lineup, 30-35-15 when he is out.  It is not surprising, then , that his presence and production is consistent with team success.  Montreal is 10-2-0 in games this season in which he has a goal, 21-4-1 in the 26 games in which he has a point.  Forcing him to bear a bigger ice time load might be something to watch here.  The Canadiens are just 8-6-1 in 15 games in which Weber logged more than 25 minutes of ice time, 8-3-0 in the 11 games in which he skated under 21:45.  Weber is 3-7-10, plus-1, in 16 career games against the Caps.

It is entirely likely that the Canadiens will go only so far as goalie Carey Price will take them.  Price has been excellent in the 6-1-1 late season run, starting each of the eight games and posting a goals against average of 2.00 to go with a .933 save percentage and a shutout.  Price is now the grand old man of Montreal Canadiens goaltending, which is saying a lot.  Price is the all-time franchise leader in games played (623), wins (321), is third in save percentage (.918, minimum: 200 games; trailing only Ken Dryden (.922) and Jacques Plante (.920)), and fourth in shutouts (44).  Only Dryden has a better goals against average (2.24) in the post-expansion era that Price (2.47) among goalies playing in at least 100 games. 

This has been a fairly typical season for Price, whose numbers track with his career numbers – a goals against average of 2.50 (career: 2.47), save percentage of .917 (career: .918), and shutouts (four in 65 games; career: 4.6 per 65 games).  He has won 35 games, the fourth time in his career he won at least 35 games in a season.  If there might be a concern, it might be his workload.  His 65 games played is third-most in his career and the most since he appeared in 66 games in 2014-2015.  He has logged 3,822 minutes, fourth-most in his career.  Given Montreal’s position in the standings, it would appear likely that Price will get the call for the last two games, pushing him past 3,900 minutes for the season.  If he does get another 78 minutes of play, he would become only the seventh goalie since 2005-2006 to log at least 3,900 minutes at age 31 or older (several did it more than once), the first since Miikka Kiprusoff did it for Calgary in 2011-2012. Against the Caps in 25 career appearances, Price is 7-13-5, 3.39, .889, with one shutout.

1.  Montreal lights up teams at home with shot pressure, their 36.2 shots per game at Bell Centre leading the league.  But on the road, the Canadiens have managed only 31.6 shots per game, 11^th in the league.

2.  Montreal’s road power play, at 13.1 percent, is second-worst in the league.  Only Los Angeles (12.5 percent) is worse on the road.  They have only four road power play goals in 19 games of the 2019 portion of their season.

3.  The Canadiens have been whistled for only three major penalties this season on the road, second fewest in the league (Anaheim: two).

4.  Jeff Petry has two overtime goals this season.  Only Columbus’ Seth Jones among defensemen has more (three).

5.  Montreal has four players with four power play goals this season to lead the team.  Combined, that is two fewer power play goals (16) than Alex Ovechkin has this season (18).

1.  Washington has seven 20-goal scorers this season, but they still have a chance to have seven players with at least ten goals on home ice.  Jakub Vrana needs one to hit that mark and become the seventh.

2.  The Caps could get nine players with at least 20 points on home ice this season.  Brett Connolly needs one point to do it; Tom Wilson needs two.

3.  If T.J. Oshie gets two power play points in the last two Caps home games, it would give the team five players with at least ten power play points on home ice this season/

4.  Twelve different players have recorded game-winning goals on home ice this season for the Caps to account for the 22 wins in regulation or overtime.

5.  In the stat the team would just as soon not add to, the Caps could finish the season with eight players taking at least ten penalties at Capital One Arena.  Vrana needs one, and Matt Niskanen needs two to reach double digits.  If Vrana goes to the penalty box, he would be the eighth Capital to be charged with at least 20 minutes in penalties at home this season.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Montreal: Phillip Danault

If the Canadiens are going to push through and reach the postseason in the last two games, it is probably going to require contributions from next-tier players like Phillpp Danault.  He has not been a big scorer on his own this season, his 12 goals ranking tenth on the club.  But he does have 40 assists (second on the team) and 52 points (third), while his plus-20 ranks second on the club.  It has not been the easiest of paths for Danault to this point, who was drafted 26^th overall in the first round by the Chicago Blackhawks in the 2011 entry draft.  He never could break through with the Blackhawks, appearing in only 32 games over two seasons before he was traded back to his home province of Quebec (he was born in Victoriaville) with a second round draft pick for Tomas Fleischmann and Dale Weise in February 2016. 

The move agreed with him.  Danault has played in 234 games over four seasons for the Canadiens, averaging almost four more minutes per game with the Habs than he did in Chicago.  His 12 goals this season are one from his career best (13 with Montreal in 2016-2017), and he might have to add to that total for Montreal to have a fighting chance to reach the playoffs.  That 12^th goal is the only one he has in his last 24 games, over which Montreal is 11-11-2.  Danault is 0-5-5, plus-1, in six career games against Washington.

Washington:  Evgeny Kuznetsov

In over 400 career games, Evgeny Kuznetsov has been a particularly effective player on home ice.  In 208 home games he has 58 goals (43 in 206 road games), 134 assists (102 on the road), 192 points (145 on the road), and plus-54 (plus-11 on the road).  Those home/road splits are even more pronounced this season: goals (17/4), assists (29/22), points (46/26) and plus-minus (plus-8/plus-1).  He has seven power play goals on home ice and only one on the road, and all three of his game-winning goals were recorded at Capital One Arena.  He is even more disciplined at home, logging only 20 penalty minutes while serving 30 on the road.  

Those 17 goals at home are second among the Caps (Alex Ovechkin: 19), his 29 assists rank first, as do his 46 points.  Over a month-long stretch from early February to early March, covering seven games on home ice, Kuznetsov was blistering hot, going 7-7-14, plus-7.  He has cooled off some since then, going 1-3-4, plus-1, in his last five home games, although those three assists came in his last game at Capital One Arena, a 4-1 win over Carolina on March 26^th.  Kuznetsov is 4-8-12, plus-1, in 13 career games against Montreal.

In the end…

Montreal is a tie-breaker (regulation and overtime wins) out of the second wild card spot as of Wednesday morning.  That they find themselves in this position is a product of an impressive 4-2 win over Tampa Bay on Tuesday night.  Given that the team they trail, the Columbus Blue Jackets, have remaining games against two teams looking for the exit – the New York Rangers and Ottawa Senators – they face almost a “must-win” game in Washington before closing out the season at home against Toronto on Saturday.

For the Caps, who are in “tuning” mode getting ready for next week’s start of the postseason, the Canadiens will present a challenge.  Not that the Caps lack entirely for motivation.  A win would clinch the Metropolitan Division title and give them a match-up against the first wild card in the first round, at this point probably the Carolina Hurricanes.  It would be, on the surface, a more favorable matchup than having to face the Pittsburgh Penguins in Round 1 of the postseason.

The Caps have been good (11-4-4), but not great (26 points, tied for seventh with seven other teams) on home ice since January 1^st.  But they do have that 9-1-2 record at home over their last 12 contests, so that is a good sign.  Still, even at home against a desperate team, it will be a challenge.

Capitals 3 – Canadiens 2