The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Round Robin Game 3: Capitals vs. Bruins

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

What goes ‘round, comes ‘round, that that goes for robins, too.  Not that the term “round robin” has anything to do with birds.  More like we English-speaking folks have trouble with French (the term is derived from the French “ruban rond,” or “round ribbon”).  Wherever the term comes from, the NHL version of the round robin comes to an end for the Washington Capitals on August 9^th, when they face the Boston Bruins.  The Caps (0-1-1) and Bruins (0-2-0) will play in what amounts to the “losers’ bracket” of the four-team Eastern Conference pre-tournament tournament to determine who will get the three and four seeds in the Stanley Cup playoffs.  But before that tournament starts, let’s take a look at…

How we got here:

November 16: Capitals 3 – Bruins 2 (OT/Gimmick)

The Capitals chased this game a bit too much, allowing the Bruins the game’s first goal and then falling behind again before T.J. Oshie tied things up late in the third period.  With the Caps’ net empty, and the clock winding down under a minute remaining in regulation, Evgeny Kuznetsov settled a pass from Nicklas Backstrom at the goal line, stepped out to give himself a passing angle, and laid the puck out to Oshie between the hashmarks for a one-timer that beat goalie Jaroslav Halak with 58.6 seconds left to send the game to extra time.  After a scoreless overtime, Boston’s Charlie Coyle scored to open the freestyle competition, but Backstrom scored in the Caps’ last chance to tie it, and Jakub Vrana won it with a goal in the fifth round of the Gimmick.

December 11: Capitals 3 – Bruins 2

The Caps yielded the first goal once more, this time off the stick of David Pastrnak mid-way through the first period.  The Caps took a second period lead on a pair of goals by Oshie 3:30 apart.  Boston tied things up on a sean Kuraly goal in the third minute of the third period, but John Carlson got the game winner less than two minutes later.  The game-winning play started with Nicklas Backstrom skating the puck down the left wing, around the corner, and behind the Bruin net.  Coming out the other side to the left of goalie Jaroslav Halak, he found Carlson stepping into the right wing circle for a pass that Carlson one-timed from the faceoff dot past Halak and a 3-2 win.

December 23: Bruins 7 - Capitals 3

The last game before Christmas for the Caps was one big lump of coal.  Boston put the game away early with four first period goals, chasing Caps starting goaltender Braden Holtby.  Ilya Samsonov did not have to face many pucks, allowing one goal on four shots, but Boston scored two empty net goals around a Garnet Hathaway score for the Caps to wrap up the 7-3 Bruins win.

The numbers:

Who’s hot, or at least, who was hot for the Caps?

• Radko Gudas.  Raise your hand if you had Radko Gudas leading the Caps in points in the round robin.  OK, it is only two points.  He had an assist in each of the Capitals’ round robin games to date.  Although the point total is modest, it did represent a turnaround of sorts for Gudas.  He finished the regular season without a point in his last ten games and had only one point (an assist) in his last 19 regular season games dating back to January 8^th.
• T.J. Oshie.  In three regular season games against Boston, six different Capitals recorded goals.  Oshie was the only one to post more than one.  He had three – two in the 3-2 win over the Bruins on December 11^th and one in the 3-2 Gimmick win over Boston on November 16^th.  The three goals almost doubled his career goal total against the Bruins; he now has seven career goals in 22 games against Boston.
• John Carlson.  The Caps were led in points (four), assists (three), shots (11, tied with two other players),and game-winning goals (one) by John Carlson I the season series against Boston.  He had points in each of the three games against the Bruins – an assist in the win on November 16^th, a goal and an assist in the win on December 11^th, and an assist in the loss to Boston on December 23^rd.  His goal against Boston on December 11^th was the game-winner in a 3-2 win and his fourth against Boston in his career, the most he has against any NHL team.

Who’s cold, or at least, who was cold for the Caps?

• Tom Wilson.  In two round robin games, Wilson has one shot on goal and no points in more than 35 minutes of ice time.  He did not have a goal against Boston in three games this season and has only two in 18 career games against the Bruins.
• Ilya Kovalchuk.  In the first two games of the round robin, Kovalchuk did not put up a point and recorded only three shots on goal in 32 minutes of ice time.  He faced the Bruins only once in the regular season, going without a point when the Montreal Canadiens lost, 4-1, to the Bruins on February 12^th.  He does, however, have 23 goals in 44 career games against Boston.
• Jakub Vrana.  Since he posted goals in three consecutive games in January, Vrana has only two goals in his last 21 games and only one point (an assist) in his last eight games, including the two games of the round robin.  

Who to watch for the Bruins…

• David Pastrnak.  “Pasta” was 2-3-5 in three games against the Caps this season, the team leader in points.  What he does not have, though, is a point in the round robin in two games.  Watch his shots on goal.  In 28 games in which he recorded five or more shots, he had 28 goals.  Pastrnak has five goals in 15 career games against Washingon, but on the other hand, he has a minus-8 plus-minus rating, second worst against any NHL team he has faced (minus-9 against Vancouver).
• Zdeno Chara.  The 22-year veteran had a bit of an odd regular season in 2019-2020.  He posted only one goal against the Metropolitan Division this season (against the New York Rangers) and was shut out in points against five of the eight teams, including the Caps.  In his case, watch his minutes.  In 34 games in which he skated at least 21 minutes, the Bruins were 27-0-7.  That’s right, no losses in regulation.  He skated 16:57 against Philadelphia and 18:25 against Tampa Bay, both losses.
• Jaroslav Halak.  It would not be a surprise if Halak got the call against the Caps.  The reason could be that Tuukka Rask is 3-11-5, 3.10, .892 in 20 career regular season appearance against the Caps and has never faced them in the postseason.  And, Halak finished the regular season with a 7-0-0, 2.06, .925 record, although he did give up four goals on 29 shots in the 4-1 loss to the Flyers in the round robin.  In 13 career postseason games against Washington with Montreal and the New York Islanders, Halak is 7-6, 2.37, .933.

Fun Facts in the Season Series…

• Washington was 1-for-10 on power plays against the Bruins and allowed a shorthanded goal, leaving them with a net power play of 0.0 percent.
• The Caps were outscored, 6-1, in the first periods of games against the Bruins this season, and they allowed the game’s first goal in all three games.  They did not hold a lead at the first intermission in any of the three games and did so only once at the second intermission.  Nevertheless, the Caps won two of three games.
• The Caps had that rarity against Boston this season, a season win in faceoffs.  The Caps won 87 of 166 draws in the three games (52.4 percent) against the seventh-best faceoff team in the league in the regular season (51.0 percent).
• Tom Wilson had 23 penalty minutes in the three games.  No other Capital had more than four.
• Garnet Hathaway did that “get under the opponent’s skin” thing, leading the Caps with four penalties drawn in the three games.
• Hathaway and Nic Dowd were the only Caps not to be on-ice for an even strength goal scored by Boston in the series.  Every Capital who dressed in the series was on ice for at least one even strength goal scored.

If the Caps win, they get the New York Islanders to open the first round of the playoffs.  Lose, and they get the Carolina Hurricanes.  There are worse reasons to hope for a win, given the Caps’ frustrations with the Hurricanes, but what Caps fans might want to see here is just a simple, well-played, discipline, productive game at both ends of the ice, something they have not seen in either of the first two round robin games and the sort of game that was all too infrequent down the stretch of the regular season.  The Caps have a pair of 3-2 wins against Boston this season.  Why not a third?

Capitals 3 – Bruins 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Round Robin Game 2: Capitals vs. Flyers

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

August 6^th is not a particularly exciting date on the historical calendar of the Washington Capitals.  It is the birthday of former Caps defenseman Christian Djoos (1994); it is the anniversary of the signing of free agent forward Grant Martin in 1985, who played in 20 regular season and one playoff game for the Caps over two seasons; and it is the anniversary of the 2018 naming of Brett Leonhardt, Reid Cashman, and Scott Arniel as assistant coaches for the club.  It will now be remembered as the first time in 253 regular season and playoff games that the Caps faced the Philadelphia Flyers in a game played in August.

The Caps and Flyers opened their respective round robin phases of the postseason with the Caps dropping a Gimmick decision to the Tampa Bay Lightning, 3-2, and the Flyers besting the Boston Bruins, 4-1.  But now, let us take a look at…

How we got here:

November 13: Capitals 2 – Flyers 1 (OT/Gimmick)

The Caps scored early on a goal by Brendan Leipsic in the first period, and the Flyers scored late on a power play goal by Claude Giroux to tie the game and force extra time.  After a scoreless overtime, Evgeny Kuznetsov recorded the only goal in the freestyle competition to give the Caps a 2-1 win.  This was one of only 20 games in the league all season in which both teams recorded more than 30 shots (the Caps had 36 to the Flyers’ 31) and in which each team posted one or fewer goals.

January 8: Flyers 3 - Capitals 2

Three lead changes was the feature of this game.  The Flyers opened the scoring in Philadelphia on a Travis Konecny goal less than four minutes into the game.  The Caps came back on goals 5:23 apart by Nicklas Backstrom and Jakub Vrana to take a 2-1 lead.  Robert Hagg tied the game with 42 seconds left in the first period to close a wild opening frame.  Kevin Hayes scored what proved to be the game-winning goal with 2:01 left in the second period, a shorthanded goal on a Caps power play that would end up going 0-for-5 for the game.

February 8: Flyers 7 - Capitals 2

Compared to the game played a month earlier, this game started quietly enough, the teams exchanging goals (Sean Couturier for the Flyers, T.J. Oshie for the Caps) to go to the first intermission tied, 1-1.  Then, things took a turn.  The Flyers scored six straight goals over the second and third periods to open up a 7-1 lead and end the competitive portion of the contest.  Evgeny Kuznetsov closed the scoring mid-way through the period for the Caps in a 7-2 loss.

March 4: Flyers 5 – Capitals 2

The Caps opened the scoring in the last meeting of the regular season between the two teams, but once more they fell victim to goals scored in a bunch.  The Flyers scored three goals in ten minutes in the second period to take a lead they would not relinquish.  Garnet Hathaway did manage to draw the Caps within a goal with a late strike less than two minutes before the second intermission, but goals by Ivan Provorov and Scott Laughlin in the third period pushed the Caps to their third straight defeat at the hands of the Flyers.

The numbers:

Who’s hot, or at least, who was hot for the Caps?

• Nicklas Backstrom.  Backstrom is one of two active Capitals who, over his career, averaged more than a point per game against the Flyers (55 points in 49 games/1.12 per game).  The odd part of his production, though, is that it has not been much of a predictor of outcomes.  The Caps are 17-10-6 in the 33 games in which he recorded at least one point against Philadelphia (1.21 standings points per game), and they are 7-5-4 in the 16 games in which he did not (1.13 standings points per game).  Including Monday’s game against Tampa Bay, Backstrom has points in 21 of 32 games away from Capital One Arena and is 7-21-28 over those games.
• Alex Ovechkin. The other active Capital averaging more than a point per game against the Flyers over his career is Ovechkin (59 points in 57 games/1.04 per game).  What is more, his point-scoring mattered.  The Caps are 19-7-8 in games in which Ovechkin posted at least one point against Philadelphia.  But let’s put a pin in that for a moment.
• Braden Holtby.  Since coming into the league in 2010-2011, only two goaltenders in the league have more wins against the Flyers than Holtby (13) – Henrik Lundqvist (21) and Sergei Bobrovsky (15).  Coming into this season, Holtby brought a 13-game points streak against the Flyers, going 9-0-4, 1.88, .937.  but he has been even better against the Flyers in a postseason setting.  He started and finished all six games of the Caps’ Eastern Conference quarterfinal win over the Flyers in 2016, stopping 149 of 154 shots (.968 save percentage), allowing more than one goal only once, and shutting out the Flyers to start and end the series.  Four years removed from that series means a lot of turnover for Orange and Black personnel, but Holtby has not been intimidated by the colors or the logo.  But put a pin in this, too.

Who’s cold, or at least, who was cold for the Caps?

• Alex Ovechkin.  Four Capitals dressed for all four games against Philadelphia this season and did not record a point, three defensemen (Dmitry Orlov, Radko Gudas, and Jonas Siegenthaler) and Alex Ovechkin.  The Flyers are the only team Ovechkin faced four times this season against which he did not record a point, and Philadelphia is one of only five teams overall against which he went without a point (Pittsburgh, San Jose, Vancouver, and Vegas were the others).
• Braden Holtby.  As good as Holtby was against the Flyers in the run-up to this season, the 2019-2020 season was, well, less good.  He was 1-3-0, 4.15, .857 in the four games he played against Philadelphia.
• Nicklas Backstrom.  In his last 19 games, Backstrom has two goals on 37 shots.  The good sign for him, given that the Caps will be playing away from Washington, is that his last five goals scored in the regular season were on the road.

Who to watch for the Flyers…

• Claude Giroux.  There is perhaps no more familiar face among the Philadelphia Flyers to contemporary Caps fans than that of Claude Giroux.  The 45 regular season games he has on his resume against the Caps tops all active Flyers, and it’s not close for second (Jakub Voracek: 34). He is one of eight Flyers to have faced the Caps at least 20 times in his career who averages at least a point per game against the Caps (45 points in 45 games.  This season, Giroux led the Flyers with five points in the four games against the Caps, four of those points on power plays.  He closed the regular season with a strong finishing kick: 8-10-18 in his last 15 games.
• Nicolas Aube-Kubel.  The Flyers were not sparing in dressing rookies against the Caps this season.  Eight rookies among the 27 skaters facing the Caps were rookies.  Forward Nicolas Aube-Kubel dressed for three games and led the rookies in scoring against the Caps, going 1-2-3 in the three games he played.  Aube-Kubel took a bit of time reaching the NHL, he being a second round (48^th overall) pick in the 2014 Entry Draft, and his stats for the season after he joined the Flyers were not jump-off-the-page impressive, but seven goals and 15 points while averaging just over 11 minutes a game spoke to a measure of offensive efficiency on his part.  He finished the regular season with four goals and eight points in his last 12 games.
• Carter Hart.  The Flyers finally have their goalie.  Carter Hart is one of five goalies in Flyer history to dress for at least 40 games in a season, post at least 20 wins, and do so with a goals against average under 2.50 and a save percentage over .910 at least once (43 games, 24-13-3, 2.42, .914).  He is the first to pull off that feat since Robert Esche did it in 2003-2004 (40 games, 21-11-7, 2.04, .915).  Against the Caps, though, Hart split the work with Brian Elliott, appearing in two of the four games, and they happened to be the first two games in the season series.  He was impressive in those appearances, stopping 35 of 36 shots in a 2-1 Gimmick loss to the Caps on November 13^th and then stopping 26 of 28 shots in a 3-2 win over the Caps on January 8^th.  He was another strong-finishing Flyer, going 10-2-0, 2.17, .926 over his last dozen appearances of the regular season.  He stopped 34 of 35 shots in the Flyers’ opening game of the round-robin, a 4-1 win over the Boston Bruins.

Fun Facts in the Season Series…

• The Caps had their worst goal differential per game of any opponent against the Flyers this season (minus-2.25).
• Washington outscored the Flyers, 5-3, in the first periods of the four games this season, but they were outscored, 13-2, in periods two and three in the season series.
• The Flyers scored six straight goals from six different players in a span of 25:17 across the second and third periods in a 7-2 win over the Caps on February 8^th.
• The Caps did not get a goal from any defenseman in any of the four games against Philadelphia this season.
• Washington, not a good faceoff team overall this season, saved their worst for the Flyers.  The Caps’ 39.6 faceoff winning percentage against the Flyers was their worst against any Eastern Conference team.
• Only one Capital recorded as many as five shots in a single game against the Flyers this season, and no, it was not Ovechkin.  Richard Panik had six shots on goal in the Caps lone win in the season series, a 2-1 Gimmick win on November 13^th.

…hey, when you go 1-3-0 in four games, not many of the “facts” are going to be “fun.”

If the Caps are going to put a pin in the party balloon that has been the Flyers’ season against the Caps and win the second game of the round robin, they will have to be far more competitive over all 60 minutes than they have been, and it would help if the stars were more than a little bit brighter when the Caps take the ice on Thursday.

Capitals 4 – Flyers 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is BACK ON THE AIR!!! -- Round Robin Game 1: Capitals vs. Lightning

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

August 3^rd is the 216^th day of 2020, was the day in 1492 that Christopher Columbus set sail from Spain for the New World, is the 99^th anniversary of baseball Commissioner Kenesaw Mountain Landis banning the eight Chicago “Black Sox” from Major League Baseball, and it is the day this year on which the Washington Capitals resume their chase for the Stanley Cup.

The Capitals and the other 23 teams in the revamped Stanley Cup tournament have been frozen in place on their Stanley Cup course since the NHL announced its “pause” in the season due to concerns over the COVID-19 virus on March 12^th.  But Monday, the Caps will take the ice for the first game with meaning in 147 days when they face off against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first of three round-robin games to determine seeding for the official “playoffs” to follow.

How we got here…

November 29: Capitals 4 – Lightning 3 (OT)

Tampa Bay scored goals 5:38 apart (Braden Point, Mikhail Sergachev) straddling the first and second periods to take a 2-0 lead in Washington.  After Evgeny Kuznetsov halved the lead on a power play 5:17 into the second period, the Lightning took their second two-goal lead of the game on an Alex Killorn goal with 1:12 left in the frame, the second time in the game the Bolts scored with less than 90 seconds left in a period.  Jakub Vrana scored 3:45 into the third period to pull the Caps within a goal for a second time, and then Alex Ovechkin tied the game on a power play mid-way through the period, beating goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy with a one-timer on the short side:

Dmitry Orlov won the game 3:03 into overtime when he looked off Vasilevskiy from the left wing circle faking “pass” and snapped a shot past the goalie’s blocker for the win.

December 14: Capitals 5 – Lightning 2

The second meeting of the teams started innocently enough, Nicklas Backstrom opening the scoring in the seventh minute of the first period and Brayden Point tying the game in the sixth minute of the second period in Tampa.  In the third period, though, the Caps dominated.  Lars Eller and Garnet Hathaway scored less than a minute apart early in the period to put the Caps in front.  Jan Rutta got one of them back mid-way through the period, but T.J. Oshie put to rest any further thoughts of a comeback with a goal 63 seconds after Rutta’s to give the Caps a 4-2 lead.  Tom Wilson closed the scoring with an empty-net goal with 38.6 seconds left in the 5-2 Caps win.

December 21: Capitals 3 – Lightning 1

After a scoreless first period, Radko Gudas opened the scoring 4:40 into the second period to give the Caps the lead.  That goal held up until the 10:00 mark of the third period when Nikita Kucherov tied the game for the visitors.  The Caps broke back on top less than four minutes later on a goal by Dmitry Orlov, who one-timed a feed from Jakub Vrana from the top of the left wing circle for what proved to be the game-winning goal.  Nic Dowd provided the final margin with a shorthanded empty-net goal with 2:23 left.

The numbers:

Who’s hot, or at least, who was hot for the Caps?

• Alex Ovechkin. In his last ten games before the pause, Ovechkin led the Caps in goals (eight) and points (ten), shooting 22.9 percent along the way.
• Richard Panik. Over his last ten games before the pause, Panik tied for second in points (eight) and was second in plus-minus (plus-6).  One of his two goals over that span was a game-winner, that coming in the Caps’ last win before the pause, a 5-2 win in Pittsburgh against the Penguins.
• Tom Wilson.  In his ten games leading up to the pause, Wilson had four goals, one of them a power play goal against the New Jersey Devils and another being a game-winner in a 4-3 win over the Wild in Minnesota.

Who’s cold, or at least, who was cold for the Caps?

• Brenden Dillon.  He was not expected to be a big offensive contributor when he came to the Caps from San Jose at the trading deadline, but in ten games with the Caps, he is still looking for his first point with his new team.
• Evgeny Kuznetsov.  When he returns to the ice against Tampa Bay, Kuznetsov will be dragging along with him an 11-game streak without a goal on 19 shots.
• Nicklas Backstrom.  In his last 19 games, Backstrom has two goals on 36 shots.  The good sign for him, given that the Caps will be playing away from Washington, is that his last five goals scored in the regular season were on the road.

Who to watch for the Lightning…

• Nikita Kucherov.  In 21 games after the All-Star Game break, Kucherov was 11-20-31; three of his 11 goals were game-winners.
• Steven Stamkos.  Limited to only 12 games after the All-Star Game break (core muscle surgery), Stamkos still scored 11 goals to tie for the team lead.  However, he did suffer a leg injury in the voluntary workout phase leading up to the tournament, so he will bear watching.
• Andrei Vasilevskiy.  Since the All-Star Game break, Vasilevskiy is tied for the league lead in goalie wins (11, with Nashville’s Juuse Saros), but he has done it more as a passenger. His goals against average of 2.59 ranks 18^th among 38 goalies with at least 500 minutes over that span, while his save percentage of .917 ranks 16^th in that group. His 3.70 career GAA against the Caps is second-worst among all NHL teams he has faced (3.72 vs. Colorado), and his .897 career save percentage against Washington is second-worst among Eastern Conference teams he has faced (.895 vs. Ottawa).

Fun Facts in the Season Series…

• The Caps scored 12 goals in three games against the Lightning.  That total was shared by 11 players, Dmitry Orlov the only player with two goals.
• Both of Orlov’s goals were game-winners, his only game-winning goals of the season.
• The Caps owned the third period against the Lightning, outscoring them in each third period of the three games and 8-2 in the final frame overall.
• John Carlson did not record a point in three games against the Lightning, one of five teams against whom he did not record a point this season (Buffalo, Columbus, Vancouver, and Winnipeg being the others).
• Only nine of 21 skaters to dress for the Lightning recorded points against the Caps this season.  

And so the Capitals, 21 weeks to the day since their last game played in anger, will resume their quest to hoist the Stanley Cup.  In the first of what will be the oddest set of tournament games ever played in the NHL…

Capitals 4 – Lightning 3