The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 13: Capitals at Panthers, February 12th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up their home-and-home set against the Florida Panthers with a trip to the Sunshine State on Mardi Gras.  We covered much of this matchup in the prognosto from Saturday, and since neither team has played since then, there is not much to add.  However, there are some takeaways from that game that you, dear reader, might keep in mind for this one…

-- It was a case of resistible force meeting moveable object when it came to what happens when scoring or trailing first.  The Caps had not won a game when scoring first before Saturday night (0-4-0); the Panthers were 1-4-0 when allowing the first goal.  The Caps lost both games in which they led at the first intermission; Florida was 1-4-0 when behind after 20 minutes.  Something had to give.  It was the Panthers.  Troy Brouwer recorded the only goal of the first period when he scored with 2:15 left.  It wasn’t until the second period when the importance of that score became apparent.  Brouwer scored 3:36 into the period on what would be the Caps’ first shot after Brouwer’s first goal.  That was building on momentum, something the Caps have not done often this season. 

Takeaway… Getting the early first goal is nice, but getting the unanswered second one is what puts your opponent behind the eight ball.

*****

-- The Caps have been plagued by undisciplined play this season, but it was lack of discipline that might have done in the Panthers as much as anything in Saturday’s game.  Joel Ward scored eight minutes after Brouwer’s second goal on only the fourth shot faced by goalie Jose Theodore in those eight minutes.  It made for three goals on six shots in a span of 14:10.  Less than three minutes after that goal by Ward, Theodore almost decapitated Mathieu Perreault as he was ducking behind the Florida net, earning an interference penalty.  Florida killed off that penalty, but barely two minutes after that penalty kill they took another penalty.  If not for a coincidental penalty to Mike Green apart from the original Tomas Kopecky infraction, Florida might have dug an even deeper hole on the scoreboard.  As it was, they lost their focus and the competitive portion of the game was more or less over.

Takeaway… Pressure makes for mistakes by the opponent.  Mistakes turn into goals.  Goals turn into frustration. 

*****  

-- The Caps were 1-1-0 when holding teams scoreless in the second period of games leading up to Saturday night, 1-7-1 when they didn’t.  The Caps did not allow a second period Panther goal, and they improved their record to 2-1-0 when holding opponents scoreless in the middle frame.  The two wins came at home; the loss in a road game against the Maple Leafs.

Takeaway… The troubles the Caps might be having in the second period might be due to having trouble adjusting to the long change in the middle period.  That and adapting to a zone, as opposed to a man-to-man defense such as they played last year might be causing them problems.  What problems this should cause in a road game are not obvious, since it matters most in changes on the fly.  Still, it is just one more thing that needs to be solved on a more permanent basis.

*****

-- Mike Ribeiro had a fine game in the faceoff circle…in the offensive end.  He was 5-for-7 in the attacking end.  The defensive end?... 1-for-7.  It seems a bit surprising that he – an offensive center who has faceoff issues generally – would have led the Caps in defensive zone draws taken.

Takeaway… If Mike Ribeiro is leading the team in defensive zone draws and performing at the level at which he did on Saturday, it would seem unlikely the Caps would escape with another shutout.

*****

-- All six defensemen and all of the top nine forwards finished the Saturday game in “plus” territory. None of the fourth line forwards registered a point, but neither were they exploited by the opposition either on the scoreboard or in terms of taking penalties.

Takeaway… That is the kind of balance – the 18 sets of oars in the water among the skaters rowing in the same direction – that can be very effective and cut down on the wear and tear of the top lines and pairs having to do much more than their share for the Caps to win. 

*****

-- Washington outscored Florida, 4-0, at even strength on Saturday.  As a result, the Panthers have allowed more goals at 5-on-5 (26) than they have total goals scored (24).  They have allowed 28 goals at even strength, scoring only 12 such goals of their own.

Takeaway… The Caps have even strength issues to deal with (an 0.76 goals-scored to goals-allowed ratio at 5-on-5, for example), but the Panthers are last by a wide margin in this category.

*****  

-- Florida has the fifth largest positive spread between its home power play rating (33.3 percent) and its road power play rating (12.0 percent). They have the sixth largest positive spread between their home penalty kill (84.2 percent) and their road penalty kill (69.2 percent).  In other words, their special teams at home are much, much more efficient than they have been on the road.

Takeaway… The Caps beat the Panthers handily in the even-strength game on Saturday.  Chances are, that’s the path to a win in this game, too.

*****

Overall, here is the tale-of-the-tape updated for Saturday’s results between these teams:

In the end, if the Caps are to get their first road win of the year somewhere (they are 0-4-1, the only team left in the league without a road win), you would think it would be against these Panthers.  Florida has the third-worst home record (points earned), they are awful at 5-on-5, they have the most losses in the league by three or more goals (five), they have been shut out three times (tied with Nashville for most times shut out), and both of their goaltenders are way on the wrong side of 3.00 in goals against and .900 in save percentage.  As bad as the Caps have been so far, this is one they have no business losing.

Capitals 4 – Panthers 2

36 Games Left -- The Mountain Ahead

It isn't the mountain ahead that wears you out; 
it's the grain of sand in your shoe.

-- Robert W. Service

Through 12 games of the 2013 National Hockey League season the Washington Capitals found themselves with what seemed like a desert’s worth of sand in their shoes with 36 games left to play.  As the NHL headed into its Monday schedule, the Capitals found themselves five points out of eighth place in the Eastern Conference standings.  To that sentence, there are a lot of folks who would add the word, “only.”  As in, “the Washington Capitals find themselves only five points out of eighth place…”

Our questions for today are these.  Should the word “only” be considered a valid addition to that sentence?  With 36 games left, is it reasonable to assume that a five-point deficit in the standings is a manageable one?  Is this too high a mountain to scale with too little time left to do it?

Let’s put it this way.  It is not going to be an easy task to make the playoffs.  If you look at the seven seasons that followed The Lost Season of 2004-2005, the task comes into focus.  We took a look at the Eastern Conference standings with 36 games remaining for each team (points only, not automatic seeding for division leaders) to see who climbed into the top eight in the conference and how far they climbed to get there.  Let’s take the seasons in order:

2005-2006

In the 2005-2006 season, here were the Eastern Conference standings with 36 games left to play in the regular season.  Teams that would make the playoffs are shaded in green:

With 36 games left in the regular season, the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Montreal Canadiens occupied ninth and tenth place, respectively, in the Eastern Conference standings.  The Lightning might have been excused for their position, to a point.  They were the defending (one cancelled season removed) Stanley Cup champion that sleepwalked through their first 46 games of the 2005-2006 season with a 23-20-3 record. 

But starting with their 6-3 win over Dallas in Game 47, the Lightning went on a 9-2-1 run over their next dozen games to climb into sixth place in the East.  Even though the Lightning would go on to finish their last 24 games with an 11-11-2 record, it was their ability to put together a strong record over a significant stretch of games that catapulted them into the top eight. 

Then there were the Montreal Canadiens.  The Habs were tenth in the East after 46 games, only two points out of the top-eight.  Their 21-19-6 record looked even in the win-loss respect, but the Canadiens were all over the place in getting there.  They had three streaks of at least three wins in length and three losing streaks of at least three games.  Montreal tightened up, avoiding winning or losing streaks of such length, but were still mired in ninth place after a 3-1 loss to the New York Islanders on March 21^st, one point behind the Atlanta Thrashers for eighth place.

The Canadiens, however, took a page from the Tampa Bay script and embarked on a season end run that wrapped up with a 10-4-0 record in their last 14 games.  In that run it would not be until their last two games of the season that the Canadiens would lose consecutive games. 

Here is a comparison of where both teams started their last 36 games and where they finished…

2006-2007

There were once more two teams finding themselves on the outside looking in with 36 games left that managed to leap-frog into the top eight in the East by year’s end.  The Tampa Bay Lightning made a repeat appearance in this scenario, sitting in tenth place in the East after 46 games, two points out of the top eight.  Their 36-game finish looked a lot like their finish in 2005-2006.  In their first 16 games to start their 36-game finish the Lightning went 12-3-1.  That 16-game run allowed Tampa Bay to jump all the way to fifth in the East (they owned the top spot in the Southeast Division at that point) by February 22^nd.  Even with a 9-9-2 finish in their last 20 games the Lightning had enough to finish seventh in the East (second to Atlanta in the Southeast).

The New York Islanders were in 12^th place in the East after 46 games, four points outside the top eight.  They took a somewhat different path to playoff eligibility.  The Islanders struggled to get a foothold in the last 36 games, but what they did do was earn points.  They did not lose often in regulation.  In their first ten games to start the 36-game home stretch the Islanders won only five times, but they lost in regulation only once.  That 5-1-4 record at least allowed the Islanders to stop the bleeding in their season, leaving them two points out of eight place with 26 games to play.  Those last 26 games were played to a 14-8-4 record (a 101-point pace over 82 games), good enough for the  Islanders to finish in eighth place.  Oh, and as a side bar to that happy ending, New York finished in eighth place by one point over Toronto.  Each team won 40 games, but the Islanders lost one more game in extra time – earning the extra standings point – than did the Maple Leafs.  That 5-1-4 record came in handy to start the 36-game home stretch.

Here is the comparison between these teams in the home stretch…

2007-2008

Two teams making the leap from also-ran to playoff eligibility was a theme continued in 2007-2008. The New York Rangers were one of those teams, sitting in ninth place in the East and one point out of the top eight with 36 games to go.  What the Rangers did to open their home stretch was similar to what the Islanders were able to do in starting their home stretch the previous season – they avoided losing in regulation.  In their first 13 games of the home stretch the Rangers went 7-4-2 with one of the wins coming in extra time in addition to the two losses.  That served as a springboard to a 14-3-6 rush to the end that propelled the Rangers into fifth place in the East at season’s close.

The other team to make the jump into the top eight was the Washington Capitals.  Fans will remember that the Caps were dead last in the East when Bruce Boudreau relieved Glen Hanlon as head coach.  But what they might not remember was that the Caps had climbed to within three points of a playoff spot at the 46-game mark.  It was a long hard climb to get that far, since they had not yet reached the .500 mark since having last occupied that mark in Game 6 back in October.  In fact, even the start of their 36-game stretch run was not especially impressive.  The were 8-6-3 to open the home stretch and were still in 11^th place (four points) out of a playoff spot with 19 games to go.  However, Washington closed like a freight train, going 15-4-0 over their last 19 games to end the season and finish first in the Southeast Division (tied with Ottawa and Boston for sixth in points).

Here are the Rangers’ and Capitals’ “when and then” records in the home stretch…

2008-2009

In 2008-2009 it was two teams once more moving from also-ran to playoff status in the last 36 games.  They had similar records going in and similar records going out, and they got there in similar ways.  The Carolina Hurricanes were 21-20-5, good for tenth place after 46 games.  By the time the Hurricanes reached this point they had replaced coaches, bringing Paul Maurice in relief of Peter Laviolette.  But by this point in the season they were only 9-9-3 under Maurice and in the midst of a five-game losing streak that would be their longest of the year.  However, the Hurricanes opened their 36-game sprint to the finish with six wins in their first eight games.  That established momentum for Carolina, and they went on to post a 24-10-2 mark in those last 36 games to finish sixth in the East.

The Pittsburgh Penguins looked much like the Hurricanes, differing only in the timing of making a change behind the bench.  Through 46 games the Penguins were 22-20-4 and languishing in ninth place in the East, an unexpected position for a team that went to the Stanley Cup finals the previous season and that still boasted arguably the most talented lineup in the league.  They continued to struggle, even as they started the last 36-game stretch of the season, going 6-5-2 in their first 13 games of the home stretch.  It was then that they made a coaching change, following a 3-2 Gimmick loss to the Islanders on February 16^th.  Dan Bylsma replaced Michel Therrien behind the Pittsburgh bench, and the Pens were off.  Pittsburgh finished their last 24 games on an 18-3-3 run, ending the regular season in fourth place in the East before going on to win the Stanley Cup.

Here is how the two teams began and ended their 36-game run…

2009-2010

Only one team would leap into the top eight over the last 36 games in the 2009-2010 season.  The Montreal Canadiens started the 36-game home stretch with a 22-21-3 record, tenth in the Eastern Conference.  They promptly fell flat to start their run, going 3-4-3 over a ten-game stretch.  Oddly enough, they actually rose in the standings, settling in a tie with Atlanta for seventh in the East, one point ahead of the New York Rangers, who were going 2-7-1 over the same ten-game stretch to drop out of the top-eight.  Once given the opportunity, Montreal held on, going 14-8-4 over their last 26 games (a 101-point pace over 82 games) to finish eighth, one point ahead of those Rangers.

2010-2011

For the second straight year, only one team could make the jump over the last 36 games from the bottom seven to the top eight in the East.  The Buffalo Sabres were 21-20-5 at the 46-game mark, tenth in the Eastern Conference.  By this time, though, they were already showing signs of turning their season around.  After dropping four of five in late December, Buffalo went 7-2-1 over a ten-game span to close the first 46 game of the 2010-2011 season in 11^th place, four points out of eighth.  They would then open the home stretch with a 6-2-1 record in their first nine games.  It was not enough to get the Sabres into the top eight, but it did inch them closer – two points out in ninth place.  At that point the Sabres went on a three-game losing streak, but it would be the last time in the 2010-2011 season that they would endure consecutive losses.  Buffalo finished the last 24 games 16-4-4 to end the season in seventh place in the conference.

2011-2012

This would be the only season since the 2004-2005 lockout that no team came in from the cold to make the playoffs over their last 36 games.  The eight teams that were playoff eligible after 46 games were the same eight teams that finished in the top-eight at the end of the season, the only changes being a matter of seeding.

In the end, what does this say about the Capitals’ chances to make up five points and seven places in the standings over their last 36 games to reach the top eight in the Eastern Conference?  Well, here is what we can say about the teams that did make the grade since the 2004-2005 lockout…

• No team lower than 12^th in the East with 36 games to play made the jump into the top eight by season’s end.  This was accomplished twice – by the Islanders in 2006-2007 and by the Capitals in 2007-2008.
• The biggest deficit any team overcame over their last 36 games to make the playoffs was four points.  This was accomplished twice – by those 2006-2007 Islanders and by the 2010-2011 Buffalo Sabres.
• Only one team that made the jump from also-ran to playoff eligibility was below .500 in terms of standings points earned with 36 games left, the Caps in the 2007-2008 season (45 points in 46 games).  The abbreviated season in 2012-2013 makes this comparison difficult, but the point here is that the teams demonstrated an ability to play competitive hockey, even if they were on the outside looking in at the playoffs.
• Of the ten teams to climb into playoff eligibility in their last 36 games, eight won at least 20 of their last 36 games.
• Of the ten teams succeeding in climbing into the top eight, eight of them had multiple winning streaks of at least three games in their last 36-game stretch.  Five teams had winning streaks of at least six games in their home stretch.
• Only once did any of the ten teams experience as much as a four-game losing streak in their last 36 games.  The New York Islanders had an 0-3-1 stretch in mid-March on their way to an eighth-place finish in the 2006-2007 season.
• Only Montreal in the 2009-2010 season had more streaks of three or more losses than they had of three or more wins in the last 36 games.  And even here the Canadiens mitigated the effects by earning standings points in four of five of those losing streaks.

What all of this might confirm in your mind is that the Caps need to stop losing, or at least losing chunks of games on their schedule.  The win against Florida on Saturday is a start, but they have to win games consistently and in bunches.  They probably cannot afford another extended (three or more game) losing streak unless they manage to earn standings points in doing so.  They almost certainly need one extended run in which they post a much greater than .500 record in terms of standings points earned.

What is working against them is that even though it seems they are “only” five points out of a playoff spot, the history of teams that make the leap into playoff eligibility since the 2004-2005 lockout is such that the Caps are already on the wrong side of the largest deficit to date that a team made up with 36 games left.  Add to that the fact that no team lower than 12^th with 36 games left could climb into that top eight, and the task appears ever more daunting.  The fact that the remaining schedule is entirely intra-conference might result in more volatility in the standings, but it remains a tall order.

None of this is to say that the Caps cannot do what seems next to impossible, given the hole they dug for themselves in the first 12 games of the season, but it would not be the way to bet.

It sure would make a great story, though.

 

That Was The Week That Was -- Week 3

How you end the week might be good thing or a bad thing for the mood of the fans, but there is a whole week of hockey to look at in the week that was for the Washington Capitals.  The week ended on a high note, but does that need to be tempered with a dose of reality?  Well, let’s take a look at the week that was.

Record: 1-2-0

This was the third straight below-.500 week for the Capitals.  It started with a pair of rematches of recent games, a pair of opportunities to gain a measure of revenge and redemption for losses to the Toronto Maple Leafs (a 3-2 loss in Toronto on January 31^st) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (a 6-3 loss on February 3^rd).  The Caps came up short in both, falling to the Maple Leafs by a 3-2 margin and to the Penguins by a 5-2 score.  The losses to start the week extended a Caps losing streak to three games, their second such streak of at least three games in their first three weeks (they opened the season 0-3-1).  However, it all came together in the last game of the week, a 5-0 win over the Florida Panthers, in which they dominated on the scoreboard an on the stat sheet in a way they have not in any other game so far.

Offense: 3.00/game (season: 2.50/rank: 20^th)

The Caps showed life on offense this week, primarily a product of the five goals scored on the Panthers to end the week.  One problem that the Caps continue to struggle with on offense is scoring at even strength.  Before getting four goals on 23 even strength shots against Florida, the Caps were only 1-for-42 combined in the first two games of the week, losses both.  As it was, going 5-for-65 (7.7 percent) was still a rather weak week.  Shooting, in fact, has not been the Caps’ forte so far.  The Caps have three players in the top 30 in shooting percentage – Mike Ribeiro (tied for eighth), Joel Ward (tied for 13^th) and Troy Brouwer (tied for 29^th).  They are a combined 14-for-57 (24.6 percent).  The rest of the team is 16-for-277 (5.8 percent).

Defense: 2.67/game (season: 3.42/rank: 27^th)

Shutouts are good for the soul.  They are also good for the defensive scoring results.  After allowing eight goals in the first two games of the week, the Caps shutout of the Panthers cut the goals allowed from four a game to 2.67.  The second period remained a thorn – no, a railroad spike – in the side of the Caps.  Six of the eight goals allowed this week came in the middle period.  Even though the Caps did not allow a second period goal against the Panthers in the week’s final game, the Caps still find themselves having allowed the second highest total of second period goals, 19 to Buffalo’s 21.  The Caps still have the worst goal differential in the middle frame at minus-11.  If there was a silver lining in the week, it was that John Carlson was not on ice for a goal against in the 5-0 win over Florida.  It marked the first time in 12 games that Carlson was not on ice for at least one goal against.

Goaltending: GAA: 2.69/SV: .895

Believe it or not, the 2.69 GAA and the .895 save percentage represents the best week thus far for the Caps in goal.  That – the Florida game notwithstanding – should not be confused with the Caps having had “good” goaltending.  It was not as if Michal Neuvirth and Braden Holtby faced a barrage of shots, either.  Opponents recorded 76 shots on goal for the week (25.3/game).  It was that second period that did Neuvirth and Holtby in for the first two games of the week.  Six goals on 26 shots faced in the second period – a .769 save percentage – will result in what happened, two losses.  The silver lining?  The pair were 16-for-16 in third period saves for the week.  Silver lining II?  Braden Holtby had the swagger and confidence in defending his neighborhood that he has when things are going well in the 5-0 shutout over Florida.  When he doesn’t he looks as if he overplays himself out of position, leaving himself defenseless for second shots.  Not so against the Panthers.  It could be something to build on.

Power Play: 4-7 / 57.1 percent (season: 22.7 percent / rank: 9^th)

The Caps are quietly putting together quite a record on the man advantage.  They scored power play goals in all three games this week, making it four games in a row.  In fact, Washington has failed to record a power play goal only three times in 12 games and has not gone consecutive games without getting at least one.  Not only was the power play effective with four goals for the week, but it was efficient.  The Caps scored four goals on a total of nine shots. And, even though there were few shots needed to record the four goals, they came from the players who need to take them.  Troy Brouwer was 1-for-3, his goal coming on a deflection of a John Carlson attempt.  Alex Ovechkin was 1-for-2, Mike Ribeiro 1-for-1.  Mike Green and John Carlson recorded two the remaining shots, and Marcus Johansson scored on his only power play shot. 

Penalty Killing: 6-for-9 / 66.7 percent (season: 71.7 percent / rank: 28^th)

What the power play taketh, the penalty kill giveth away.  As well as the power play did, special teams were only plus-1 for the week in goal differential.  And the penalty kill was just as inefficient as the power play was efficient.  Three goals on 14 shots.  But the problem was limited, as it were, to the middle game of the week.  Pittsburgh scored three goals on seven power play shots in the second period (there is that second period thing again) in the 5-2 win over the Caps on Thursday.  The rest of the week the Caps were a perfect 5-for-5 in penalty kills and allowed only seven shots.  Now the Caps have to find consistency.  Over the last five games they have alternated perfect nights (three times) with nights when they were not so perfect (2-for-7 in the two games combined).

Paying the Price: 56 hits / 32 blocked shots (season rank: 20^th / 11^th)

The blocked shots are once again worth noticing here.  In the two losses the Caps blocked a total of 13 of 87 shot attempts (14.9 percent).  In their lone win, they blocked 19 of 50 attempts (38.0 percent).  It is far too small a sample to draw a conclusion that blocked shots as a share of attempts are a reliable indicator of a team’s success, but it was indicative of a much more engaged and energetic Caps club in the game to close the week.

Faceoffs: 71-for-161 / 44.1 percent (season: 47.5 percent / rank: 25^th)

Offensive zone faceoffs have been an issue with the Caps so far this season. In neither of the first two weeks did the Caps finish above 50 percent in offensive zone draws.  They are three-for-three in that respect after a 26-for-56 week (46.4 percent).  They are only 47.5 percent in the attacking end for the season.  This week they had two awful nights on offensive zone draws – 9-for 23 against Toronto (39.1 percent) and 7-for-19 (36.8 percent) against Pittsburgh, both of them losses.  The Caps were 10-for-14 in the offensive end against Florida and won.  Coincidence?  Perhaps, but that kind of coincidence is what the Caps need more often.

Turnovers: +3

The thing that marked the week here is the lack of turnovers.  The Caps were on the good side for 38 turnovers this week (16 takeaways and 22 giveaways by opponents) and on the bad side for 35 (17/18).  No Capitals was charged with more than one giveaway in any of the three games.  The Caps have had trouble with discipline with regard to penalties, but they give at least the appearance of being more disciplined with the puck.

In the end…

A win to close the week is nice, but the fact is that the Caps are still 0-for-3 in putting together winning weeks.  It cannot be one step up and two (or three) back.  The Caps will go into their first game of Week 4 still in 30^th place in the league.  They will go into that game no closer than four points out of the top-eight, and the eighth place team – currently the Carolina Hurricanes – has two games in hand on the Capitals.  Carolina plays on Monday night against the Islanders with an opportunity to extend that lead to six points with a game in hand.

The Caps are now at the point where they need to turn around their pattern set over the first 12 games.  In those games they have a four-game (0-3-1), a three-game, and a two-game losing streak.  They have yet to post wins in consecutive games.  Losing streaks from here on out doom the Caps to finishing on the outside looking in on the playoffs. Alternating wins and losses will not do it either.  The Caps need wins in bunches.  It’s time to take a page from the renowned baseball manager Lou Brown, who once said after his Cleveland Indian charges won a game…

"All right you guys let's listen up. We won a game yesterday. If we win one today, that's two in a row. We win one tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before."

A TWO-point night -- Game 12: Capitals 5 - Panthers 0

Washington Capitals fans got a glimpse this evening of what an Adam Oates system might look like when it is working.  OK, more than a glimpse.  The Caps scored early (a goal in the first period), scored late (two goals in the third period), and they scored in between (a pair of goals in the second period) to defeat the Florida Panthers, 5-0.

Sometimes, goals just happen.  With ten bodies in motion contesting every bit of a confined space, a moving puck is bound to have its path to the net altered from time to time, and there is little a goaltender can do about it.  Such was the case on the Caps’ first goal.  It started with good old fashioned forechecking.  Nicklas Backstrom fed the puck down the wall from the left point whereupon Wojtek Wolski and Erik Gudbranson fought over it.  The puck squirted behind the Caps’ net where Jerred Smithson tried to move it along.  But Troy Brouwer contested Smithson’s progress, and Smithson managed only to send a week pass attempt forward.  The puck made it as far as John Carlson’s stick, and Carlson wasted no time letting fly with a shot.  The puck nicked Brouwer on the way through, and goalie Jose Theodore was helpless to stop the redirected puck.

Brouwer and Joel Ward traded goals in the second period for the Cap, Brouwer firing a laser of a shot over Theodore’s glove.  The power play goal got its start when Florida cleared the puck down ice.  In doing so, the Panthers tried to swap out penalty killing units, but they were caught on the change by Braden Holtby, who sent the puck smartly up to Brouwer waiting at the Florida blue line.  Brouwer took it the rest of the way.

As for Ward, he tied Brouwer for the team lead in goals on a play that started once more with some good forechecking.  Eric Fehr took on Gudbanson (who would end up on ice for four goals against in this game) in the corner to Theodore’s right.  Gudbranson wheeled and tried to move the puck up the boards to Kris Versteeg, but Mathieu Perreault was being a pest about it.  Perreault would actually tie up both Versteeg and Drew Shore along the boards, and the puck popped free.  Fehr was there to try to move it along, and it was Ward who ended up on the receiving end in the confusion.  Ward nudged the puck toward the middle and flicked a shot past Theodore before either he or the defense could react.

The Caps reached back to the good old days for their fourth goal.  Mike Ribeiro tied up Stephen Weiss just long enough on a faceoff to Theodore’s left to allow Jason Chimera to jump in and push the puck back to Alex Ovechkin at the edge of the right wing faceoff circle.  Ovechkin snapped the puck past Theodore just two seconds after the drop of the puck on the faceoff to give the Caps a 4-0 lead.

Mathieu Perreault ended the scoring when Theodore could not control a rebound of a Jeff Schultz shot.  It was the end product of excellent pressure applied by the Caps, keeping the Panthers from clearing the puck out of danger, and Eric Fehr in particular, who paid a price in front of the Florida net, taking abuse from Tyler Strachan while he was setting a screen in front of Theodore on Schultz’ drive.

The only suspense left was to see if Braden Holtby would finish with his fourth career shutout and first of the season.  He turned away five shots after the Perreault goal to earn the shutout and end the Caps’ three-game losing streak.

Other stuff…

-- Four players earned their first points of the season in this game: Mathieu Perreault, Eric Fehr, Jeff Schultz, and Braden Holtby.  Perreault added his first goal for good measure.

-- Joel Ward earned the game’s third star, perhaps for his goal in the second period.  But maybe it was for his behind the back pass to Jeff Schultz that started the play on which Perreault scored.

-- The five-goal night represented the first time in 12 games that the Caps scored more than three goals.  The last time the Caps started a season going more than 11 games without scoring more than three goals in a game was in the 2005-2006 season when they went their first 13 games without reaching four goals.

-- From the “You Have to Start Somewhere” file… tonight was the first time in 12 games that John Carlson was not on ice for a goal against. In fact, he had an assist, was plus-1, had two hits, two takeaways, and three blocked shots.  It was probably his most complete game so far this season.

-- With his goal tonight Alex Ovechkin is 2-3-5 in his last four games and has four goals in his last eight games.

-- The Caps were 10-for-14 on offensive zone faceoffs, reversing the recent trend. 

-- Ten of the 19 players taking the ice (including goalie Braden Holtby) registered at least one point.  Spreading the wealth makes for a happy group.

-- It is hardly unusual that Alex Ovechkin would lead the team in shots on goal.  But Jeff Schultz having the second most shots?  It is the first time that Schultz had as many as three shots in a regular season game since January 9, 2010.  He even tied for the team lead tonight in total shot attempts with Ovechkin (he had four attempts blocked).

-- The Caps faced two shorthanded situations, tying their low for the season (they had two in a 3-2 win over Buffalo).  However, both might have been the result of undisciplined moments, Jason Chimera interfering with Tomas Fleischmann in front of the Panther bench 50 feet away from the play and Eric Fehr cuffing Erik Gudbanson in front of the Florida net as they were fighting for position.

-- When Braden Holtby is on, he plays with a certain swagger and control of his neighborhood. He doesn’t flail, and he doesn’t overplay shots that take him out of position.  He was on tonight.  There was much more economy in his effort than he has displayed in games to date.

-- The Caps had a lead at the first intermission and won.  That is the first time that sentence could be uttered this season (the were 0-2-0 with 20-minute leads coming into this game).

-- The Capitals scored first in this game and won.  Yup…first time this season.  They lost the other four games in which they scored first.

In the end, it was a complete 20-player win (we think Michal Neuvirth did a fine job manning the bench in a backup goalie role).  The scorers scored, the checkers checked, the grinders grinded…uh, grounded…ground…whatever.  There was precious little in the way of good scoring chances for the Panthers, and what there were suffered unhappy endings thanks to Holtby.  When the Caps got a lead, they did not take their foot off the gas, yet still played responsibly.

Sure, Florida is not exactly the strongest of opponents, but the Caps need two points wherever they can get them.  They stopped the bleeding, looked good doing it, and inched just a bit closer to a playoff spot.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 12: Panthers at Capitals, February 9th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s another Saturday Night Southeast Cage Match!  The Washington Capitals host the Florida Panthers in a key divisional tilt. It is a contest that…

Aw, hell... it’s the “Battle of the 20-Somethings”…

• As in ranked in the 20’s in scoring (Caps tied for 23^rd, Panthers tied for 20^th. 
• As in ranked in the 20’s in defense (tied for 29^th, 27^th). 
• As in ranked in the 20’s in penalty killing (27^th and 21^st). 
• As in ranked in the 20’s in 5-on-5 (27^th and…oops, the Panthers are 30^th). 
• As in ranked in the 20’s in minor penalties (24^th and tied for 20^th).
• As in ranked in the 20’s in winning percentage in games decided by three or more goals (tied for 24^th – last, and tied for 20^th)

The short version?  They’re not so good.  And this is the defending division champion (Florida) and the four-time defending division champion before them (Washington).

The difference between the teams is that one of them is actually playing decent hockey.  It is not the home team.  The Panthers are 3-0-1 in their last four games, although you might say their competition has been weak. They split two decisions with 11^th place Winnipeg, a 6-3 win and a 3-2 overtime loss. Their other two wins came at the expense of 14^th place Buffalo, in a 4-3 decision, and in a Gimmick over 13^th place Philadelphia, 3-2.

Still, in posting that 3-0-1 record in their last four games, the Panthers have shown a competence the Caps have not.  For one thing, they have been able to score – 14 goals over those four games, including twice posting more than four goals, something the Caps have yet to do this season.  And at the other end, they killed off 10 of 12 penalties in those four games.  An 83.3 percent penalty kill rate is not what one might regard as excellent, but it certainly beats the 8-for-13 (61.5 percent) posted by the Caps over their last four games.

Here is how the teams stack up overall so far in the tale of the tape…

1.  In Florida’s case, balance = success.  In their 3-0-1 mini-run, 11 different players have goals, 17 different players have points.   A pair of Tomas’ lead the Panthers in scoring in those four games – Fleischmann (2-3-5) and Kopecky (1-4-5).

2.  After going 2-for-24 (8.3 percent) on the power play in their previous five games, the Panthers are 5-for-14 in their last four contests (35.7 percent).

3.  One ingredient of the Panthers’ recent success – shots allowed.  In their last four games Panther goaltenders have faced only 23.6 shots per 60 minutes. 

4.  Only one team has been involved in more three-goal decisions than the Panthers so far this season.  In ten games played, Florida is 2-4 in such games, although each of their last three games were one-goal decisions.

5.  Last season, Florida earned 32 of their 94 standings points in games going to extra time, a 7-18 record in such games.  So far this season they have earned three of their nine points in that fashion (1-1).

1.  Comparing the Caps to the Panthers over their last four games, the Caps are 1-3-0.  They are 4-for-14 on the power play, but only 8-for-13 on the penalty kill.  They have been outscored by that 8-4 margin on special teams, and have been outscored 8-6 at even strength.

2.  When you score only ten goals in four games, as the Caps have done, balance is not quite the virtue it is as when you score 16, as Florida has over their last four.  Eight different Caps have those ten goals, three of them by Mike Ribeiro and seven other Caps with one apiece.

3.  Mike Ribeiro leads the Caps in goals and points over the last four games (3-2-5), with Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom right behind (both with 1-3-4 marks).  Hey, all of them are at or better than a point a game in these four games, what gives?  Well, for one thing, the rest of the point scoring is evenly distributed among forwards and defensemen (six points for each group), but only three forwards not already mentioned in this paragraph have points (Troy Brouwer, Wojtek Wolski, and Marcus Johansson),  It’s that old secondary scoring thing again.

4.  Braden Holtby stopped 63 of 74 shots faced in the Caps’ last four games, while Michal Neuvirth stopped 27 of 32 shots.  A .851 save percentage and a .844 save percentage -- .849 overall.  The position is goalTENDER, not goalALLOWER.

5.   If the Caps lose this contest in regulation, it will make it their worst 12-game start since going 1-11-0 to start the 1981-1982 season.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Florida: Jose Theodore

That the Panthers are 3-0-1 in their last four games is not a product of goaltending.  Jose Theodore might be 3-0-0 over Florida’s last four contests, but Theodore has a goals-against average of 2.60 and a save percentage of .897.  Those are Vezina Trophy numbers compared to what the Caps are doing these days, but Theodore hasn’t really stolen any of the wins. He has faced only 25 shots per 60 minutes in his streak.  His career record against the Caps is not much better, a 2.58 GAA and .902 save percentage to go along with a 7-10-1 record in 20 career appearances.

Washington: Jason Chimera

Through 11 games Jason Chimera is fifth on the team in shots on goal (23) and has nothing to show for it.  This is the longest he has gone to start a season without a goal since he went 15 games without one to start the 2006-2007 season.  One could say that the Caps are not getting enough goal scoring from Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom (five goals between them), but the Caps are not getting enough scoring from anywhere these days (save for Mike Ribeiro).  Getting some support from underneath would be helpful.

Keys:

1.  The Early Bird Catches the Worm.  Florida has allowed 12 first period goals and 14 second period goals in ten games.  Here is the Caps’ opportunity to improve on their 12^th place rank in first period goals scored or, perhaps more important, improve on the paltry six goals scored in the second period (third worst).

2.  Don't be “Lame” in the Middle Frame.  The Caps have those six second period goals.  They also have allowed 19.  That minus-13 goal differential accounts for almost the entire goal-differential (minus-15) the Caps have compiled in regulation through 11 games.

3.  Be the Puck.  The Caps skaters have had their defensive lapses, to be sure, but on the other hand Washington goaltenders have had to face only 26.5 shots per game, too.  That is hardly a heavy volume (over the full season to date it would rank as sixth fewest).  The goalies simply have to start stopping more pucks, especially at even strength.  The old proverb goes that a goalie needs to be a team’s best penalty killer, but the even strength save percentage over the last four games of .866 is abominable.

In the end, here we are.  Two games against a very beatable opponent, and a divisional opponent at that.  But do not take the Panthers lightly; they are playing effectively, if their defense and goaltending is a bit leaky.  The Caps are five points out of a playoff spot, but the eighth place team – the Carolina Hurricanes – have two games in hand on the Caps.  If they don’t get two points tonight – four points in the next four days at the expense of the Panthers in this home-and-home set – well…

Capitals 4 – Panthers 3