Monday, May 26, 2014

Washington Capitals: 2013-2014 By the Tens -- Goalies: Philipp Grubauer


“Happiness is brief. It will not stay. God batters at its sails.”
-- Euripides


On Opening Night of the 2013-2014 season, there was Philipp Grubauer standing between the pipes as the puck dropped.

In Hershey.

That was as it was supposed to be and might have been for Grubauer in the 2013-2014 season, being the number one goaltender as the Bears set off in pursuit of their 12th Calder Cup.  Things, however, took a turn.  First, Grubauer appeared in only nine of the Bears’ first 17 games.  In those nine games Grubauer was 4-4-1, 2.60, .910, with one shutout.  This work profile is one to which we will return, but at this point in the season Grubauer was about to undergo a significant change in his duty station.

On November 30th Grubauer was recalled to Washington after Caps goalie Michal Neuvirth was injured in warm-ups before the Caps’ November 29th contest against the Montreal Canadiens (the Caps won, and Brett Leonhardt got another turn as emergency backup goalie to Braden Holtby).  Holtby would get the next start, on November 30th, but Grubauer got his chance, so to speak, on December 3rd when he relieved Holtby for the third period of a 4-1 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes.

Grubauer got his chance to start in a Sunday evening game at Madison Square Garden on December 8th against the New York Rangers.  Not exactly being eased into a start.  Grubauer stepped up, though, and held the Rangers to one goal on 31 shots, outdueling Rangers’ goalie Henrik Lundqvist in a 4-1 win. 

It would be an important performance in Grubauer’s development.  That start, coupled with the struggles of Braden Holtby, would begin a run in which Grubauer would appear in 13 of 17 games, posting a record of 6-2-5, 2.11, .934.  He was, for the moment at least, the Caps’ number one goaltender.

Not that Grubauer’s run was without its moments, but much of it (as so much seems to have been with respect to goaltenders on this club) was outside of his control.  Grubauer’s run started with Holtby struggling and Neuvirth injured.  Neuvirth was sufficiently rehabilitated from his injury by mid-December so that the Caps were carrying three goaltenders on the parent roster.

That was a problem that the club inflicted on itself,  but a solution presented itself when, as fast as Grubauer assumed the number one role it disappeared.  On January 17th in Columbus, Grubauer allowed three goals on 14 shots in less than 22 minutes of work in a 5-1 loss to the Blue Jackets.  He was put right back in the saddle in the Caps’ next game a rematch with the Rangers.  It did not prove an effective therapy.  Grubauer allowed three goals on eight shots in less than 18 minutes.  The following day, he was reassigned to Hershey, but only after then general manager George McPhee decided that enough was enough with the three-goaltender arrangement.  

Grubauer would get one more appearance in Washington, a relief stint in early March after Braden Holtby allowed four goals on 18 shots in a 6-4 loss to the Philadelphia Flyers, but it was a brief respite from pursuing his apprenticeship in Hershey.


Fearless’ Take… There were 12 rookie goaltenders in the NHL who appeared in five or more games this season.  Philipp Grubauer finished fourth in goals against average (2.38), and third in save percentage (.925).

Cheerless’ Take… This is a goalie that needs to show he can handle a heavy workload.  Well, in one place, anyway.  In 2012-2013 he spent 26 games with the Reading Royals, 28 games with the Hershey Bears, and two games with the Caps.  This season he spent 28 games with the Bears and 17 with the Caps.  What was more curious than his 17 games with the Caps was his 28 games with the Bears.  He played in just 19 of the Bears’ last 37 regular season games.  And, he got progressively worse over time as the season wore on.  In two games to close January he was 2-0-0, 0.50, .982.  He followed that up in February with a record of 5-3-0, 3.09, .900; then a record of 0-4-0, 3.31, .909 in March.  He closed strong as the Bears tried to grab a playoff spot in April (2-2-1, 2.14, .933), but it was not enough to lift the Bears into the post-season. 

Odd Grubauer Fact… Philipp Grubauer is one of only five goaltenders since the 2004-2005 lockout to appear in 15 or more games and post a save percentage of .925 in either their first or second year in the league.   The others are Cam Talbot, Martin Jones, Niklas Backstrom, and Jonas Hiller.  No, Henrik Lundqvist did not do it; he had a .922 save percentage in his 2005-2006 rookie season.

Game to Remember… December 27th versus  New York Rangers.  In the Capitals’ last game before the Christmas break, Philipp Grubauer was given a 2-0 lead to protect against the Anaheim Ducks.  He didn’t. The Ducks scored single goals in the last half of each of the three periods, the last one coming with 5:36 left in regulation as the Ducks took a 3-2 win.  It made for an interesting prologue to the first game coming out of the break.  How would the youngster respond to that setback?

Grubauer answered the challenge in the first game after the holiday break.  The Rangers peppered him with 14 shots in the first period without finding the back of the net as the Caps took a 1-0 lead into the first intermission on a power play goal by Mike Green.  The Rangers scored on their first shot of the second period, a power play goal by Benoit Pouliot on a deflection of a Brad Richards shot.  However, Grubauer turned aside the last 17 shots he faced in the period, allowing the Caps to regain the momentum.  The Caps took advantage of Grubauer’s strong play to score late in the period on a goal by Nicklas Backstrom. 

Grubauer was victimized early in the third period on a shorthanded goal 17 seconds into the period by Carl Hagelin to tie the game, but it would be the last time the Rangers would celebrate a goal that evening.  Grubauer turned aside the next seven shots he saw, and Eric Fehr scored what would be the game-winning goal for the Caps with 5:09 left in a 3-2 win.  For Grubauer it was a 38 save effort, including 35-for-35 at even strength.  After sustaining what was his first regulation loss of the year against Anaheim and the Caps looking to stop a skid in which they lost three of four games, it was a fine effort on the young goaltender’s part.

Game to Forget… January 17th versus Columbus.  When Philipp Grubauer led the Caps onto the ice at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, he was in the midst of staking a claim to be the Caps’ number one netminder.  He had a record of 6-2-5, 2.06, .936.  When he left the game 21:44 into the game the Caps would lose by a 5-1 margin, having allowed three goals on 14 shots, his goals against average jumped to 2.21, and his save percentage dropped to .931. 

It was the first time Grubauer had been pulled after starting an NHL game.  It would not be the last.  Grubauer was pulled after allowing three goals on eight shots in just 17:49 of work in his next start, that coming against the New York Rangers in what would be a 4-1 loss.  Grubuaer was reassigned to Hershey the following day.

In the end…

It was quite a journey for Philipp Grubauer in 2013-2014, not one without its twists and turns.  But one thing seemed to be consistent this season, his game developing cracks as his tenure wore on.  It happened with the Caps, when he started strong but ended up being pulled in consecutive games before his reassignment to Hershey.  Then, it happened in Hershey as the weeks wore on after his reassignment.  It suggests that there is still some development to be made with respect to Grubauer, even if one considers him as a bona fide candidate to be a backup in Washington next season.  What fans saw in 2013-2014 was a goalie with promise, but one who remains a work in progress.

Grade: B

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Friday, May 23, 2014

Washington Capitals: 2013-2014 By the Tens -- Goalies: Braden Holtby


“Never assume the obvious is true.”
-- William Safire


Back on February 2nd of this year, during a national broadcast of the Washington Capitals game against the Detroit Red Wings, then Caps general manager George McPhee was reported to have said that the Capitals would have ten more points with better goaltending.

Think about that.  In Game 56 of the season, meaning 110 standings points would have been contested to that point through the previous 55 games, Capitals goaltenders were responsible, from a lack of being better at their craft, for costing the team almost ten percent of the standings points available.

Quite an indictment.  And, if you are recognized as the number one goaltender among this motley crew, the crosshairs of that comment are trained on your sweater logo.  That number one goaltender, Braden Holtby, was diplomatic in his response:

“Everyone’s entitled to their own opinion.  I think if we pay any attention to comments like that it brings the team apart. So us in here that are going to go out on and play on the ice, we can’t focus on that type of stuff. We’re all trying to accomplish the same goal of winning games and we don’t want to be separated by things like that, so it’s in one ear and out the other and we’ll focus on the next game.”

You could say, though, that whether coincidence or not, Braden Holtby was a different goaltender after those comments than he was before them.
  • Before February 2: 15-13-2. 3.00, .909, 2 shutouts
  • After February 2: 8-2-2, 2.48, .927, 2 shutouts
All told, Holtby finished 23-15-4, 2.85, .915, with four shutouts.  If you are keeping score, that was 20th among league goaltenders in wins, 41st among qualifying goalies in goals-against average, tied for 23rd in save percentage, and tied for 11th in shutouts.  It was not a terrible year, but neither was it stellar.  It certainly was not what the Caps or Caps fans might have expected from a young goaltender who had a regular season record coming into this year of 37-16-4, 2.39, .923, with seven shutouts, and who had an even better goals-against average (2.04) and save percentage (.931) in 21 post-season games.

Two things come to mind has having significant influence on Holtby’s season.  Neither were of his making.  The first was an idea hatched by the coaching staff that Holtby had to curb his more aggressive tendencies and play deeper in the net.  Not “Henrik Lundqvist-deep,” but deeper.  As goaltenders coach Olaf Kolzig put it back in December…

“The game today is a lot more East-West than North-South.  We felt a lot of the goals in the league are coming from passes made through the slot, back door plays, and so what we try to get our goalies to do is to play a little flatter, as opposed to squaring up on the shot.  The old philosophy was to establish your ice and retreat back as the play is coming toward you.  I’m from a generation when a defenseman could hook and hold and you could focus on the puck carrier. You can’t do that anymore. It’s more open, so goalies have to sit back and evaluate what’s in front of them.  Now we want the goalies to read the play and instead of coming out back to in, you’re staying deep, reading it, and going from in to out.”

But was it Kolzig implementing a strategy of his own or implementing one imposed upon him?  Fast forward to April, when it was reported that the change was a product of what then head coach Adam Oates saw in Lundqvist when the Caps faced the Rangers in the 2013 playoffs.  Oates was quoted thus…

“…goaltending was inconsistent last year, too.  That’s why we made changes. But at the end of the day, I like a lot of things about Holtby’s game, I do. But like everybody, he’s got holes in his game. I need him to be a little more consistent.”

Consistency was precisely what the Caps did not get from Holtby over the first four months of the season.  Then, as it became apparent that at best this would be a long-term project and at worst simply contrary to Holtby’s style and personality in the crease, he switched back with the help of Kolzig…

“…we realized I had to go back to where my natural instincts led me. We did that as a goalie-goalie coach tandem and I think toward the end of the season it paid off.”

The results after February 2nd suggest it was the move to make.

The second thing that had a significant influence on Holtby’s season was a product of simple arithmetic.  Of 63 NHL goaltenders playing more than 1,000 minutes this season only four faced more shots per 60 minutes than Holtby:
  • James Reimer 36.8
  • Robin Lehner 35.3
  • Jonathan Bernier 34.8
  • Craig Anderson 33.6
  • Braden Holtby 33.3
We would note that of the top-15 goaltenders from this group in shots faced per 60 minutes, only three played for teams making the post season (Semyon Varlamov, Carey Price, and Sergei Bobrovsky).  Holtby simply faced too much rubber to have an effective season (goal against average, wins), no matter how efficient he might have been stopping pucks (save percentage).


Fearless’ Take… Of 29 goaltenders playing in at least 40 games this season, Braden Holtby finished eighth in even strength save percentage (.928).  Even though his save percentage was not as impressive while shorthanded – 19th among those 29 goaltenders (.867), only two goaltenders faced more shots against per 60 minutes of shorthanded ice time than Holtby’s 54.1 shots (Jonathan Bernier, 54.9; and Semyon Varlamov, 54.8).

Cheerless’ Take… Odd season for the Caps, and maybe none more odd than Holtby’s.  The Caps struggled at even strength, but Holtby had a good save percentage at even strength.  Caps had one of the league’s best power plays, but Holtby had the third worst save percentage among those 29 goalies playing at least 40 games when his team was on the power play (.843), and no goalie gave up more shorthanded goals (8).

Odd Holtby Fact… Three of his four regular season shutouts came against teams that made the post season: November 1st at Philadelphia, January 25th at Montreal, and April 13th against Tampa Bay.  The shutout against Tampa Bay was one of three games this season in which both goaltenders did not allow a goal in regulation or overtime.

Game to Remember… February 8th versus New Jersey.  When the Capitals and the New Jersey Devils took the ice at Verizon Center on February 8th, it was as two desperate teams looking for momentum heading into the break for the Winter Olympic Games.  Both teams had 61 standings points, the Devils holding the standings advantage in 12th place by virtue of having more wins in regulation and overtime.

Holtby kept the Caps in the game early, stopping all 11 shots in the first period while his teammates managed only six shots on Cory Schneider at the other end of the rink.  Holtby continued his strong play into the second period, shutting the Devils out on eight more shots, but Schneider was up to the task at his end, stopping all ten shots he faced.  It would be Schneider that cracked, though, in the third period.  Julien Brouillette notched his first NHL goal 10:50 into the period, but the Caps were not out of the woods.  Holtby held on and kept his net clear of pucks until the last two minutes when the Caps would score two empty net goals, giving Washington a 3-0 win heading into the Olympic break and lifting them over the Devils and into a tie with Columbus and Ottawa for ninth place in the East, one point behind eighth-place Detroit.

Game to Forget… October 26th versus Calgary.  Goaltenders get chased.  It happens, whether your name is Patrick Roy or Patrick Labrecque.    But to get pulled twice?  In barely three weeks?  Against the same team?  It happened to Braden Holtby in October.  The first yank came in the Capitals’ home opener against the Calgary Flames when he allowed three goals on 11 shots in 16 minutes of play. The Caps bailed Holtby out of that one, coming back from that 3-0 first period hole to win, 5-4, in a Gimmick.  Holtby was not so fortunate when the Caps visited Calgary at the end of the month.

When the teams met on October 26th, Calgary scored on their second shot, just 64 seconds into the game.  Then they scored on their 10th shot at 7:24.  The Caps halved the lead at the 12:02 mark and seemed to stop the bleeding.  Just 48 seconds later, though, the Flames worked the puck around the perimeter, eventually to the stick of former Capital Dennis Wideman.  From the right point Wideman floated a shot at the net that Mike Cammalleri deflected past Holtby, the Flames had their two-goal lead restored, and Holtby was given the rest of the evening off.  In two games against the Flames Holtby allowed six goals on 25 shots (a .760 save percentage) in 29:10 of total ice time.

In the end…

Watching Braden Holtby play is not for the faint of heart.  He is an aggressive, risk-taking sort of goalie whose wandering and puck handling can get him into trouble.  But he plays with a fire about him that fans like and that seems to inspire teammates.  This year, his coaches took a garden hose to that fire, and it resulted in two-thirds of a lost season.  When Holtby returned to his comfort zone, he was more effective.  It was not enough to lift the Caps into a playoff spot, but it did suggest that Holtby’s problem was less a sophomore (or whatever class he is in) slump as much as iffy management.  We are left to wonder if he is out of the woods in terms of a return to a happy progress in his developmental arc, or if there will be remnants of this season that will affect his play going forward.  That is an issue to ponder another time.  For this season, though, the results were as much mixed-up as mixed, one in which the obvious (that he was having a poor year) was not necessarily true.

Grade: B-

Joel Auerbach/Getty Images North America

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Washington Capitals: 2013-2014 By the Tens -- Forwards: Tom Wilson



"A mind that is stretched by a new experience can never go back to its old dimensions."
-- Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr.


On April 26, 2013, Tom Wilson had an assist for his Plymouth Whalers’ on a game-tying goal with just 4:33 in regulation, capping a furious Whaler comeback from a 4-0 deficit to force overtime in Game 5 of Plymouth’s Ontario Hockey League playoff series against the London Knights. Alas, London would score in overtime to eliminate the Whalers and end the junior hockey career for Tom Wilson.

Two weeks later Wilson would find himself dressing for Game 5 of the Washington Capitals’ Eastern Conference quarterfinal playoff series against the New York Rangers. Alas, the Caps would lose that series in a seventh game.

On October 1, 2013, just 466 days after Wilson was drafted 16th overall by the Capitals in the 2012 entry draft, he found himself in the Caps’ lineup in the 2013-2014 season opener in Chicago to face the defending Stanley Cup champion Blackhawks. Alas, the season did not end well for the Caps, as they failed to make the playoffs for the first time since 2007.

Before you start thinking that maybe Tom Wilson had something to do with the outcomes described above, stop. We mark them only to point out that it has been something of a whirlwind ride for Wilson in less than six months, from competing in a playoff series in junior hockey to doing so on a bigger stage just weeks later to finding himself in the Opening Night lineup in the NHL at the tender age of 19.

Maybe it was too fast, at least the last part about making the Opening Night roster for the Caps to start the 2013-2014 season. That, however, was a strategic decision taken by the Caps due to a lack of a full range of alternatives. Personnel rules dictated that the Caps’ choices were to keep Wilson on the parent roster or return him to Plymouth for a final year of junior hockey. Giving him a year in Hershey to hone his skills with the Bears was not an option.

So, young Tom Wilson got to spend his apprenticeship at the top rung of the organizational ladder. What he did not get as part of this apprenticeship was a lot of experience, at least on the ice in games. Wilson averaged 7:56 in ice time per game. Of 34 rookie forwards playing in at least half of their teams’ games this season, Wilson was 32nd in average ice time. Here is another way to look at that. Wilson skated 651 total minutes this season in 82 games, 24th in total minutes among rookie forwards. Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov just above Wilson with 682 minutes, but he did it in just 52 games played (13:06/game).

Wilson, as befits his limited ice time, did not rank especially highly among his rookie forward cohort – 39 in points (10), tied for 41st in goals (3), tied for 33rd in assists (7), 31st in shots on goal (63). There was an area in which he did rank highly, though. Wilson led all rookie forwards by a wide margin in penalty minutes with 157 (24 more than Edmonton’s Luke Gazdic). He was just one minute behind Tampa Bay defenseman Radko Gudas for the top spot among all rookie skaters.

A large portion of that was the product of Wilson’s willingness to stand up for himself and teammates. He was fifth in the league in fighting majors (14). But there was a general edginess to his game that was reflected in his penalty profile. If you look at the penalties of a more violent nature, Wilson has a broad-spectrum resume: roughing (6 penalties/12 minutes), high-sticking (2/4), cross-checking (2/4) elbowing (1/2), boarding (1/2), charging (3/9, including a major penalty), instigator (1/2), and slashing (2/4). Add in a game misconduct and two ten minute misconducts, and a total of 139 of his 151 total penalty minutes (92.1 percent) were the product of his “edginess.”

His apprenticeship was brief in terms of ice time; we did not say it was easy.

Fearless’ Take… How many players did Tom Wilson play more than 100 minutes with this season at 5-on-5? Jay Beagle, Aaron Volpatti, and… uh, that’s it. Beagle and Volpatti. And you wonder how he put up meager offensive numbers?

Cheerless’ Take… Cuz, Wilson played more than five 5-on-5 minutes with 17 forwards this season. Know how many he played with where they had a Corsi-for percentage over 50 percent? Martin Erat and… uh, that’s it.  Erat.

Fearless’ Rebuttal… Hold on, cuz. Take a look at Beagle and Volpatti, those two guys he spent most of his time with. With Wilson, Beagle was 49.1 percent; apart he was 41.7 percent. With Wilson, Volpatti was 42.6 percent; apart Volpatti was 28.6 percent (no, that is not a typo). Even Erat was worse apart from Wilson (49.7 percent) than with him (54.1 percent), although you might chalk that up to quality of competition effects.

Odd Wilson Fact… Tom Wilson was one of only three rookie forwards to play in all 82 games this season. The others were Nathan MacKinnon and Tyler Johnson, who also happen to be finalists for the Calder Trophy for rookie of the year.

Game to Remember… November 5th versus New York Islanders. You always remember your first, and for Tom Wilson there were two of them on this night.  The Caps were hosting the Islanders fresh off a Gimmick win over the Florida Panthers that got the Caps to 7-7-0, the first time they were at .500 since they split their first two games of the season.  The Islanders were feeling fat and happy having won consecutive games for the first time in the 2013-2014 season, the second win coming at the expense of the Boston Bruins. 

The teams exchanged the lead several times.  New York scored first on a goal by John Tavares early in the first period.  The Caps grabbed the lead on goals by John Carlson and Alex Ovechkin, the latter on a power play, 75 seconds apart early in the second.  The Isles tied it 17 seconds after the Ovechkin goal, but the Caps took the lead back just 2:12 later on a Marcus Johansson power play goal.  Then, just 1:20 after the Johansson goal, the Caps stuck in the dagger.

Wilson started the play when he collected a loose puck in the Capitals’ zone, turned up ice, and backhanded the puck across the ice to Steve Oleksy heading up the right wing.  Oleksy carried it to the Islander line, then sent the puck back to Wilson filling in on the left side.  With a burst of speed, Wilson leaned hard into the middle, drawing a delayed tripping call from Frans Nielsen as he reached the top of the crease and tumbled to the ice with Nabokov going down to try to seal the left side of the net.  Wilson did not give up on the play, though.  From the seat of his pants to the left of goalie Evgeni Nabokov, Wilson threaded a pass through the skates of Islander Josh Bailey and onto the stick of the Caps’ Alexander Urbom.  From the top of the left wing circle, Urbom wound up and fired a slap shot past Nabokov before he could scramble to his feet, giving Urbom his first NHL goal in almost two years and Wilson his first NHL point.

The Caps made it 5-2 before the second intermission, but there was still one item of unfinished business.  With 15:25 gone in the third period Thomas Hickey was sent off for holding Alex Ovechkin.  On the ensuing power play the Caps worked the Islanders in their own zone for a faceoff when a puck was deflected into the crowd.  On the next draw, Mikhail Grabovski pulled the puck back to Ovechkin who faked a shot and walked the puck a couple of steps down the left wing.  He retraced his steps to the top of the faceoff circle, then threw the puck into the middle where Wilson was sliding into the slot.  Wilson redirected the puck past Nabokov for his first NHL goal and first multi-point game in the Caps’ 6-2 win.  All in all, Wilson had a “Wilson Hat Trick,” a goal, an assist, and a ten-minute misconduct penalty he took with seven seconds left.

Game to Forget… December 10th versus Tampa Bay.  On a night when pucks would be flying into nets with alarming frequency, Tom Wilson would barely get a sniff of the action, let alone get in on the fun.  The Caps fell behind early to the Lightning, 3-0, just 11:07 into the game.  That put a premium on offense for the Caps, and Wilson being as green as he was, head coach Adam Oates super glued him to the bench.  The strategy paid off, the Caps clawing all the way back to tie the game with 32.4 seconds left before winning it in the trick shot competition.  For Wilson it was a short, forgettable night.  Five shifts (only one in each of the second and third periods), 3:17 of ice time, no points, no shot attempts.

In the end…

It is one thing to come up short when presented with opportunities to excel.  If this had been the case with Tom Wilson, you might say, “okay, at least it was a learning experience.”  But in this instance Wilson logged fewer than 700 total minutes for the season and did it largely with linemates who might have dragged down his performance more than vice versa.  Even though Wilson dressed for 82 games it would be hard to say just what the Caps have here.  In the limited instances in which he was given more responsibility or more exposure to higher quality teammates at the offensive end he did not look out of place.  Consider it something to build on; you’ll sleep better.

Grade: B

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America



Washington Capitals: 2013-2014 By the Tens -- Forwards: Joel Ward


“It is never too late to be what you might have been.”
-- George Eliot


In his first four seasons in the NHL Joel Ward was one of a class of hockey player who toils largely anonymously, so far as professional athletes go.  He was the player who might chip in an occasional goal or two, but was called upon more often to do the heavy lifting in the corners and along the walls, in the hard work areas of an NHL hockey rink, freeing pucks for teammates to carry to the net.

Then Ward had his turn in the spotlight, scoring seven goals in 12 post season games for the Nashville Predators in the 2011 post season.  It was just the ticket for a player entering unrestricted free agency.  It would be the Washington Capitals that offered Ward a contract to his liking, a four year deal, and Ward joined the team bringing the hope that he could extend his 2011 playoff performance into four years of hard-nosed, opportunistic effort.

Two years later, Ward had 14 goals in 112 regular season games and two goals in 21 post-season games, one of them rather memorable.  Still, it might not have been quite what Ward or fans had in mind when he arrived in Washington.

That changed in 2013-2014.  One of the things that plagued Ward in his first two seasons in Washington was his inability to sustain good starts to seasons.  He got out of the gate with a solid effort this past season, going 3-3-6 in his first ten-game segment and 6-1-7 in his second segment.  He slowed down a bit in his third segment (0-4-4), but picked up in the fourth (3-3-6) and sustained that level of effort over the remainder of the season to finish with career highs in goals (24), assists (25), points (49), power play goals (6), power play assists (4) shorthanded goals (2, tied with his total in 2008-2009), game-winning goals (4, tied with his total from 2010-2011), and shooting percentage (18.0 percent).

Ward’s performance was the embodiment of the importance of secondary scoring.  In 21 games in which he recorded a goal the Caps were 13-3-5; they were 21-10-7 in 38 games in which he recorded a point.  He was part of what was the most consistently effective line for the Caps this season with Eric Fehr and Jason Chimera. 

Ward was an especially effective teammate.  Consider the two forwards with whom he spent most of his 5-on-5 ice time: Jason Chimera (84.3 percent of Ward’s 5-on-5 ice time) and Eric Fehr (36.5 percent).  When paired with Ward, Chimera had a goals-for percentage of 53.8 percent, Fehr had a goals-for percent of 53.6.  When apart from Ward those percentages dropped to 41.7 percent for Chimera and 45.2 percent for Fehr.  However, Ward carried his 50-plus goals-for percent with him when he was apart from Chimera (57.1) and Fehr (54.2).


Fearless’ Take… Of 201 forwards recording at least 100 power play minutes this season, Joel Ward had the ninth best shooting percentage (27.3 percent).  Ward had six goals on 22 shots in 142 minutes.  He was very economical in his use of power play time as well.  He had one power play goal per 23.8 minutes of power play time, 28th best in the league among those 201 forwards.

Cheerless’ Take… Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good.  Not to say Joel Ward wasn’t good, but let’s not get too carried away.  For instance, among Capital forwards playing in at least 10 games Joel Ward had the second lowest offensive zone start shares at 5-on-5 (44.8 percent, to Jason Chimera’s 43.8 percent).  Despite the burden of low offensive zone start frequency he had the highest PDO among forwards playing at least 20 games with the Caps (102.7).  That number was more the product of on-ice shooting percentage (10.3 percent, tops among that set of forwards) than on-ice save percentage (92.4 percent, seventh among those forwards).  That 10.3 percent on-ice shooting percentage was itself largely a product of Ward’s own shooting percentage at 5-on-5 – 14.7 percent, best among those forwards and 20th of 292 forwards playing in at least 75 percent of their team’s games.  Makes one wonder if Ward’s season wasn’t puck-lucky as much as plucky.

Odd Ward Fact… In six season coming into the 2013-2014 campaign Joel Ward had two career four-game point streaks.  In the 2013-2014 season he had three such streaks, all of them coming in the 2014 portion of the season.

Game to Remember… November 1st versus Philadelphia.  With the Capitals heading to Philadelphia to face the Flyers and Alex Ovechkin being held out of the lineup with an upper-body injury sustained against the Vancouver Canucks, someone had to step up in a big way for the Caps.  On a night that was all Caps, a lot of guys did, but none stepped up higher than Joel Ward.  With the Caps holding a 1-0 lead early in the second period, Ward picked up a loose puck behind the Flyers’ net.  Skating the puck around into the corner to the right of goalie Steve Mason, Brayden Schenn tried to cut Ward off.  Ward spun away leaving Schenn defending air. Ward walked out from behind the net and tried to stuff the puck under Mason.  The first whack didn’t work, but the second one did to put the Caps up, 2-0.

Ward added a goal late in the second period when he completed a nifty passing sequence starting with Jason Chimera peeling the puck from the left wing wall and backhanding it to Mikhail Grabovski in the left wing circle.  Grabovski backhanded a pass to Ward, and Ward snapped a wrist shot off the far post and in for his second of the game, giving the Caps a 5-0 lead.  On a power play in the third period Ward completed his first career hat trick when he converted another backhand pass from Chimera, taking the pass at the top of the crease and snapping it past relief goalie Ray Emery to cap the scoring in a 7-0 Capitals win.  As impressive as the hat trick was, Ward achieved it (two goals at even strength) despite an offensive zone start share of 20.0 percent.  His Corsi-for percentage was 66.7 percent at 5-on-5.  It was a solid night all around.

Game to Forget… April 4th versus New Jersey.  With the Capitals’ playoff hopes hanging by a thread, the Caps went to New Jersey hoping to get a foothold for one last push to make the post-season.  It ended up being nothing but frustration for Joel Ward.  In what would be a tightly-played game Ward would record his third-lowest amount of ice time for the season (13:12).  Part of the reason for that was that he took three minor penalties, his only game of the season in which he took more than one penalty.  As it turned out he did not record a shot on goal in those 13 minutes (including 1:35 in power play ice time), and the Caps lost, 2-1.

In the end…

There were far more high points than lows in the play of Joel Ward this season.  It was not the case of a player setting career bests in multiple categories from low baselines. Ward was part of – and arguably the most important part – of what was on more nights than not, it seemed, the Caps most effective forward line.  He was a critical ingredient on a line that might have been more than the sum of its parts, something that could not be said for the rest of the team in the 2013-2014 season.

Grade: A

Photo: Jared Wickerham/Getty Images North America


Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Washington Capitals: 2013-2014 By the Tens -- Forwards: Aaron Volpatti


“We convince by our presence.”
-- Walt Whitman


It might surprise you, even if you are a fan of the Washington Capitals, that Aaron Volpatti was one of 12 forwards with the club at the end of the season who appeared in at least half of the team’s games. Only two of those games, however, came after the break for the Olympic Games.  By that time, a gimpy Brooks Laich was viewed as a better option at left wing, then Dustin Penner was obtained in trade, and Evgeny Kuznetsov was finally introduced to North American hockey, leaving no room at the left wing table for Volpatti.

Volpatti presents something of an odd statistical profile, which might not be all that unusual given his limited exposure on the ice.  First, there is that ice time.  Only four times in 41 games did Volpatti skate more than ten minutes.  His 7:21 in average ice time was 531st among 583 forwards who dressed for NHL games this season.  Only 11 forwards playing in at least half their team’s games averaged less ice time.

In those 41 games Volpatti was even or better in 36 of them.  Only once was he worse than minus-2, that in a 4-0 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins back on November 20th. 

That is not to say he had correspondingly decent possession numbers.  He most assuredly did not.  Volpatti was 368th of 375 forwards playing in at least half of his team’s games in Corsi-for percentage at5-on-5.  He was 371st in Fenwick-for percentage at 5-on-5 among that group of forwards.  Working up the statistical chain, he was 371st in shots-for percentage and 345th in goals-for percentage.  You could say that good things happening when Volpatti was on the ice were somewhat rare occurrences.  It might have looked even worse had Volpatti not had the highest save percentage on-ice at 5-on-5 of any skater playing at least half the Caps’ games this season (.954).

Volpatti’s statistical performance was not necessarily a product of poor defense, that high on-ice save percentage notwithstanding.  However, as an offensive threat he (and his fourth line teammates) was almost non-existent.  Of those 375 forwards playing in at least half their team’s games, Volpatti ranked 371st in shooting percentage relative to his team’s when he was not on the ice.

It was not even as if Volpatti was an especially inefficient shooter.  At 11.1 percent for the season his shooting percentage was equal to that of Niklolai Kulemin and a tenth of a percent better than Daniel Briere.  Ah, but “low population size.”  Volpatti recorded only 18 shots in 41 games covering almost 302 minutes of ice time.  Those 18 shots in 41 games was a far lower frequency (0.44/game) than that of his most frequent linemates on the fourth line, Jay Beagle (0.97) and Tom Wilson (0.77).


Fearless’ Take… The Capitals were 22-12-7 with Volpatti in the lineup, 16-18-7 in his absence.  Maybe there is something to be said for being there.

Cheerless’ Take… If you are not a big offensive threat, you’d better be putting a charge into your team.  Volpatti was a big hitter, as Caps forwards go (one of two Capitals forwards playing at least half the team’s games to average more than 1.5 hits per game), but he did not have so much as a single second of penalty killing time, and the Caps were 1-2-2 in games in which Volpatti recorded a fighting major.

Odd Volpatti Fact… Since Aaron Volpatti came into the league in the 2010-2011 season, only three forwards playing in at least 100 games and playing in all four seasons have recorded fewer shots on goal (Tom Sestito, Cam Janssen, and Colton Orr)

Game to Remember… November 30th versus New York Islanders.  Scoring first means something in the NHL.  Teams scoring first had a record of 853-222-152 this past season.  So, even when that first goal comes from a fourth-liner, it means something.  That was the case on the last day of November when the Caps visited the Islanders in Uniondale, NY.  After a scoreless first period, the Caps were pressuring the Islanders in their own end in the ninth minute of the second period. 

Martin Erat outdueled Aaron Ness behind the islander net for possession of the puck.  Circling to the left of goaltender Anders Nilsson, Erat sent the puck across the crease to Tom Wilson at the right post.  Wilson took a whack at it, but Nilsson kicked it back out.  Unfortunately for Nilsson, Aaron Volpatti had his stick on the ice right in the path of the rebound.  As he was being jostled by defenseman Matt Carkner, Volpatti flipped the puck past Nilsson, and the Caps had a 1-0 lead in a game they would go on to win, 3-2.  Oddly enough, Volpatti would be second only to Alex Ovechkin in shots on goal with four.  That was more than 20 percent of the shots on goal he would record for the season (18).  He would record only five shots on goal over his remaining 21 games.

Game to Forget… December 17th versus Philadelphia.  Games against the Flyers have been wars since the teams were Patrick Division combatants in the 1980’s.  The Caps had already won two games against the Orange and Black, one in a game that feature 164 minutes in penalties and another in a closely fought (figuratively speaking) Gimmick outcome.  Two days after that Gimmick decision, the Caps visited Philadelphia to try and seal back-to-back wins.  At first it looked good.  The Caps held the Flyers to a scoreless draw in the first period, then Alex Ovechkin put the Caps in front with a power play goal just 40 seconds into the second period.  The Flyers tied it less than a minute later, but Eric Fehr put the Caps ahead again 5:31 into the period. 

Then came what was arguably the turning point of the contest.  On the ensuing faceoff, Aaron Volpatti and Adam Hall dropped the gloves.  Hall caught Volpatti off balance and dropped him with a right hand to the side of the head.  Volpatti rallied to work the bout to what looked like a draw, but the fight seemed to energize the Flyers.  The home team scored three goals in the last 8:06 of the period and won going away, 5-2.  Volpatti finished the game with one shift after his fight that lasted one second, seven shifts in all covering 3:54 in ice time, and no shots on goal.  While he might have had the best of intentions, making Hall answer for a big hit on Alex Ovechkin earlier in the game, the timing was found wanting, and the results were not nearly what the Caps might have had in mind.

In the end…

Even as fourth-liners go, Aaron Volpatti did not have a very memorable year.  There were just too few contributions on offense, none on the penalty kill (where a fourth liner might make some contributions these days), and with very limited overall ice time to boot.  He was given fewer than ten minutes of ice time in each of his last 19 games of the season and had a season high of 11:10 back in December.  Even when he was present, he was not particularly convincing in his performance, even when accounting for his role.

Grade: C-

Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America


Sunday, May 18, 2014

Washington Capitals: 2013-2014 By the Tens -- Forwards: Alex Ovechkin


“Right now I'm having amnesia and déjà vu at the same time.”
-- Steven Wright


When Alex Ovechkin scored in the first period of a 4-1 win over the St. Louis Blues on April 8th, he hit the 50-goal mark in a season for the fifth time in his nine-year career.  He became the fifth player in NHL history to hit 50 goals five or more times in his first nine seasons in the league.

When the Capitals failed to score a goal in the Gimmick in a 1-0 loss to Tampa Bay to end the Capitals’ season, Ovechkin finished a minus-35, 884th among 886 skaters who dressed for an NHL game this season.  He became the first player in league history to record 50 goals and finish minus-35 or worse.

It was a strange season for Alex Ovechkin, perhaps the most ridiculed historic season in recent memory.  And the relentless pointing out of Ovechkin’s plus-minus rating was hardly the only thing that made the 2013-2014 strange. 

Ovechkin was a terror on the power play, leading the league by a wide margin in goals (24) and second in the league in total power play scoring to teammate Nicklas Backstrom.  At even strength, though, he was not better than fifth in goal scoring (27), and he finished tied for 56th in points (39), behind such stalwart scorers as Tyler Bozak (40), Mats Zuccarello (41), and Jaden Schwartz (43).

Even his goal scoring had a strange quality to it.  Ovechkin started the year as if he was going to obliterate his own league record for goals by a left wing.  With 30 goals in his first 36 games he was on a pace for 68 goals, and he was chasing his own version of 50 goals in 50 games.  

In his last 42 games, though, he had “only” 21 goals, only nine of those at even strength.   Only seven of those total goals (one of them at even strength) came in his last 19 games. 

There was that power play, though.  Ovechkin became the fifth player since the 2004-2005 lockout to record 24 power play goals in a season.  The last time a player had more was when Todd Bertuzzi finished the 2002-2003 season with 25 power play goals for the Vancouver Canucks.  But even here Ovechkin had an odd season.  Known as the trigger man from the left wing circle on the Caps’ second-ranked power play, he had more power play assists (15) than he had at even strength (12).

And here is something lost in the wake of 50 goals and a minus-35.  His 2013-2014 season was not as productive as his 2012-2013 season.  Let’s normalize his 2012-2013 numbers to put them on the same 78-game basis as his 2013-2014 season.  Here is what we get:


Fearless’ Take… Alex Ovechkin remains the straw that stirs the drink for the Caps.  Washington was 26-9-5 in games in which he scored a goal.  He also recorded his ninth 30-goal season, the sixth player in NHL history to record 30 goals in each of his first nine seasons and the second Capital to do it (Mike Gartner).

Cheerless’ Take… Scoring goals is nice, cuz, but the Caps were 10-19-9 in games Ovechkin didn’t score a goal.  And his on-ice goals-for percentage at 5-on-5 was… what’s Peerless’ word for it?  Oh, yeah… ghastly.  He was 417th among 435 skaters playing at least 75 percent of their team’s games (35.8 percent).

Odd Ovechkin Fact…  Fact?  This season has its own section of Odd Ovechkin Facts…

  • Ovechkin scored goals in 40 games and was a “minus” player in 10 of them, an “even” player in 15 other contests.
  • He was a “minus” player in 36 of 78 games; the Caps won just ten of them.
  • In 38 games in which Ovechkin did not score a goal, he was a “minus” player in 26 of them, an “even” player in 10 more, and a “plus” player in just two of those games.
  • He was 3-1-4 in eight games with Jay Beagle logging the most time as his center (no points at even strength, no “plus” games), 48-27-75 in 70 games with other centers (27-12-39 at even strength).

Game to Remember… December 10th versus Tampa Bay.  In 51 career contests against the Tampa Bay Lightning Alex Ovechkin used Lightning goalies as his personal chew toy, mauling them for 31 goals and 66 points.  What he did not have in any of those 51 games, though, was a hat trick.  Ovechkin took care of that space on his career resume before the second period was over, helping drag the Capitals out of a 3-0 hole barely 11 minutes into the game to a 4-4 tie at the second intermission.  The last of those three goals came with just 1:12 left in the second period, and it would serve as prelude to what unfolded in the third period. 

Tampa Bay scored in the ninth minute of the third to take a 5-4 lead that they would cling to for the next ten minutes. Then, with the clock running under a minute left in regulation time, Mikhail Grabovski wrestled the puck away from defenseman Radko Gudas and slid it up the boards to Nicklas Backstrom.  From the right wing wall Backstrom moved the puck along to John Carlson, who relayed it across to Ovechkin at the top of the left wing circle.  Ovechkin let fly with a one-timer that snuck under the right arm of goalie Ben Bishop to tie the game with 32.4 seconds left, giving Ovechkin his fourth goal of the game.  It was Ovechkin’s third four-goal game of his career and first since he had two in the 2007-2008 season.  The Caps went on to win the game, 6-5, in the Gimmick.

Game to Forget… January 30th versus Columbus.  You knew it was going to be bad early.  Just 6:41 into the game Boone Jenner took a goaltender interference penalty that put the Caps on the power play.  Instead of making the Blue Jackets pay, though, it was the Caps doing the buying, a world of trouble that is.  John Carlson tried to shoot the puck down the right wing wall from the point, but the attempt was blocked out of the Columbus zone where Derek MacKenzie picked it up.  Ovechkin tore after MacKenzie from the other side of the ice but managed only to get close enough to see MacKenzie deke goalie Braden Holtby to the ice and slide the puck past Holtby’s right pad to give the Blue Jackets a 1-0 lead.

Ryan Johansen scored for Columbus less than five minutes later.  Ovechkin was on the ice for that one, too.  Brandon Dubinsky scored just 24 seconds into the second period, and Ovechkin was there.  Johansen got another one 12 minutes into the period.  Yup, Ovechkin was on the ice.  Cam Atkinson scored less than five minutes into the third period.  Uh-huh… Ovechkin got an up close and personal look.  Ovechkin’s minus-5 for the evening was one of six minus-5 performances in the league for the season, the others being: Matt Duchene, Victor Hedman, Jamie McGinn, Ryan O’Reilly, and Sidney Crosby.

In the end…

It is a measure of how routine a player can be scoring 50 goals a season when it is forgotten in the wake of another, less flattering statistic.  That was the persistent theme in Alex Ovechkin’s season, though, that plus-minus number.  It ended up being historic, not for its own importance (there have been five other instances of a player finishing minus-35 or worse since 2005-2006, in addition to Ovechkin), but for the fact that it occurred with a 50-goal season being recorded. 

Ovechkin’s 51 goals made it five 50-goal seasons since he came into the league in 2005-2006, more than twice as many 50-goal seasons as the next players in line, Dany Heatley, Ilya Kovalchuk, and Steven Stamkos with two apiece.  He has almost a third of all the 50-goal seasons scored in his nine seasons in the league (18).

However, between the curious experiment of pairing him with Jay Beagle for eight games and the frustratingly poor shooting of his most frequent linemates (Nicklas Backstrom and Marcus Johansson combined to shoot 6.1 percent at 5-on-5, 12 goals on 197 shots), Ovechkin had odd circumstances to deal with as well as his iffy defense.

And let’s face it; if you have a minus-35 and 50 goals, you are going to get attention of a sort in which you are not interested.  Here is something to ponder in terms of context.  The other five players to post a minus-35 or worse since Ovechkin came into the league combined for a total of 57 goals in the seasons in which they posted those dismal plus-minus numbers.  They were not, with the exception of Marc Recchi (28 goals, minus-36 with Pittsburgh and Carolina in 2005-2006), high producers on offense.

It made for a season that was in a sense déjà vu for Alex Ovechkin, thrilling fans with another 50-goal season.  But being the captain of a team that missed the playoffs while he was posting one of the worst even strength seasons in recent memory for such a prolific scorer, it made for a season that one hopes might be lost to amnesia in other respects as the years go by.

Grade: C

Photo: Doug Pensinger/Getty Images North America