Washington Capitals 2014-2015 Previews -- Goaltenders: Braden Holtby

Braden Holtby

“Begin to be now what you will be hereafter.”

-- William James

Braden Holtby came from modest beginnings as draft picks go, taken in the fourth round by the Washington Capitals (93^rd overall) in the 2008 entry draft, the tenth goalie taken in that draft.  His rise through the development ranks was swift enough.  A final year of Canadian junior hockey, a split season with the AHL Hershey Bears and ECHL South Carolina Stingrays, a split season with the Bears and the Capitals. 

Then, in 2011-2012, it appeared Holtby might just spend his entire season with the Bears, the Caps having signed goaltender Tomas Vokoun on a discount free agent contract.  It was not to be, though.  Holtby played only seven regular seasons games with the Caps, but when both Vokoun and Michal Neuvirth were injured late in the season, the responsibility for manning the nets for the post-season fell to Holtby.

It was an opportunity he grabbed by the throat.  In 14 post-season games over two series, Holtby posted a 1.95 goals against average and a .935 save percentage.  Both numbers were ranked third among playoff goaltenders.

His 2012 playoff performance set Holtby up as the Capitals’ likely number one netminder for the 2012-2013 season.  He filled that role, leading the team’s goalies in appearances (36 of 48 games), posting a .920 save percentage, a good (tied for 14^th in the league), if not great number.  Underneath that number, though, Holtby recorded a .931 save percentage at even strength, tied for sixth among goalies appearing in at least 30 games.  His post-season did not rise to the level of that in 2012, but it was good nonetheless – a 2.22 goals against average with a .922 save percentage.  The bitter pill he had to swallow was allowing five goals on 27 shots in Game 7 of the first round playoff series against the New York Rangers in a 5-0 loss.

The way the 2012-2013 season ended led to questions about Washington' goaltending to start the 2013-2014 season, putting Holtby squarely in the crosshairs of attention.  His start was uneven.  Over his first 24 appearances through December 7^th he had a decent enough save percentage (.923), but his 2.71 goals against average ranked him in the bottom half of qualifying goaltenders, a product of his having to face 35.1 shots per 60 minutes.  Still, something was not right.  Head coach Adam Oates chose to implement a change among his goaltenders to have them play deeper in net, a change that led to the firing of goalie coach Dave Prior in August when he refused to implement the changes.   The change seemed (and ended up being) incompatible with Holtby’s temperament and aggressive style. 

Holtby’s game deteriorated through December and into the new year.  In ten appearances from December 10^th through January 30^th he was 2-4-1, 3.77, .863.  His number one job was in jeopardy.  He rebounded thereafter, though.  Starting on February 6^th against Winnipeg, Holtby went on a four game winning streak that propelled him to a 8-2-2, 2.48, .927 finish, but the lingering doubts, given that poor stretch in December and January, led the club to go after another goalie at the trading deadline.  The Caps traded backup goalie Michal Neuvirth and defenseman Rostislav Klesla to Buffalo for goalie Jaroslav Halak and a 2015 third round draft pick. Halak ended up getting a large share of the work, appearing in 11 of 13 games from March 8th through April 4th.

When the season was over, the Caps’ goaltending situation was murkier than when the season started.  The fog was lifted when the Caps made changes in hockey operations, relieving general manager George McPhee and head coach Adam Oates of their responsibilities.  Then, the Caps traded Halak to the New York Islanders for a fourth round pick in the 2014 entry draft.  When the Caps signed Carolina Hurricanes goalie Justin Peters in July as a backup, It appeared that finally, the number one job belonged to Braden Holtby.

Fearless’ Take…

Over the past four seasons, among goalies appearing in 100 or more games and playing in each of the four seaosns, Braden Holtby is tied for eighth in save percentage (.919).   And that is quite a neighborhood.  He is tied with 2013 Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky and is one percentage point ahead of 2014 Vezina finalist, and former Capital, Semyon Varlamov.  Keep in mind that his career save percentage before 2013-2014, and all the tweaking of his game by the coaching staff, was .923.  That would have put him tied for fourth in save percentage, with Tim Thomas and just a couple of points behind Henrik Lundqvist.  Among goalies appearing in at least 100 games over the past four seasons, the span of Holtby’s career to date, only Pittsburgh’s Marc-Andre Fleury has a better winning percentage (.611) than Holtby (.571).  Wins might not be the best way to evaluate a goalie, but it is the object of the exercise.  Holtby wins.

Cheerless’ Take…

When Holtby was good, he was very good, but when he was bad… Only Devan Dubnyk, playing for Edmonton and Nashville, had more games allowing five or more goals (8) than Holtby (7) last season.  That was as many as he had, combined over the first three years of his career.  He has allowed five or more goals in 14 of 105 career appearances, that’s once in every 7.5 games.

The Big Question… Is Braden Holtby an elite goaltender?

Growing pains and odd coaching decisions have combined over Holtby’s four seasons to provide only glimpses of what might be possible.  And, it is the glimpses that strike an ominous chord.  Those stretches of brilliant play have been too brief and accompanied by too many stretches of indifferent or inconsistent play to allow one to answer the question in the affirmative.  But let us remember where we are with Holtby.  He has 105 games of regular season experience, not exactly a deep resume to date.  How does he compare to top-shelf goalies in their first 105 NHL games?  Here is a summary:

Holtby compares rather favorably with this group.  That is not to say that he will win Vezina Trophies (Lundqvist, Bobrovsky, Rask) or win Conn Smythe Trophies (Quick).  But he is on a similar early-career arc.

In the end…

The job is all Braden Holtby’s now.  Semyon Varlamov, Michal Neuvirth, Tomas Vokoun, Jaroslav Halak.  All the competition is gone for the time being.  The roles on the 2014-2015 editions of the Capitals are set.  Braden Holtby is the number one goaltender, and Justin Peters is the backup.  So far, Holtby has performed well in chunks and in stretches of games.  The goal now is to piece those chunks and stretches together over a season, to do it when called upon for 55-65 games.  Last year, when 16 goalies appeared in at least 55 games, Holtby appeared in 48 contests.  It is time to step up and begin to be now what he will be hereafter, the number one goaltender for the Capitals.

Projection:  59 games, 30-19-8, 2.40, .924, 5 shutouts

Photo: Rob Carr/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2014-2015 Previews -- Defensemen: Brooks Orpik

Brooks Orpik

“Vitality shows in not only the ability to persist but the ability to start over.”

-- F. Scott Fitzgerald

Brooks Orpik spent 14 years in association with the Pittsburgh Penguins.  Drafted 18^th overall out of Boston College in the 2000 entry draft by the Pens, Orpik spent another year with the Eagles, then joined the Penguin organization.  He made his way through the Pittsburgh development system, spending two seasons with their AHL farm club in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (with the occasional call-up to the big club), sticking for good with Pittsburgh in the 2003-2004 season.  He played in 703 regular season and 92 playoff games for the Penguins, appearing in two Stanley Cup finals, winning once, and putting together one of the more entertaining shifts in recent Stanley Cup finals history:

All of that came to an end on July 1^st, when Orpik signed a five-year/$27.5 million contract with the Washington Capitals.  At the time, the deal was widely viewed as a gross overpayment for an aging defenseman.  Orpik dismissed those opinions, making the point that “Washington, I think they know me well enough, so they know what they’re getting.”

Well, what are the Caps getting?  Let’s take a look…

Physical play.  Since the 2004-2005 lockout, Orpik has never ranked lower than 12^th in hits.  Four times he finished second, and in 2008-2009 he led the league.

Playing within the rules.  Orpik has been suspended twice in his career, once in 2003 (one game) and once in 2006 (three games), the latter the more noteworthy of them for having hit Carolina Hurricanes forward Erik Cole from behind, sending him into the boards and breaking two vertebrae.  That happened to be the last season in which Orpik recorded more than 100 penalty minutes in a season. In eight seaosns since then, however, he has averaged 71 penalty minutes per 82 games.  Eighteen defensemen have recorded more penalty minutes than Orpik (481) in that span, including John Erskine (529) in 204 fewer games.  For a physical defenseman, this does not seem like an extreme level of time spent in the penalty box.

Durability.  In ten full seasons Orpik has appeared in 70 or more games seven times, and he appeared in 46 of 48 games in the abbreviated 2012-2013 season.  Even last season, when he missed ten games, eight of those games were the result of a concussions suffered when Boston Bruins forward Shawn Thornton skated up from behind Orpik, kicked his skates out from under him as Orpik was jawing with Gregory Campbell, then threw two punches at Orpik when he was on his back. 

Penalty Killing.  Orpik finished first or second in average shorthanded ice time for the Penguins in each of the last five seasons, leading Pittsburgh in the last two years.

What the Caps might not be getting is…

Offense.  Orpik does not shoot a lot (0.68 shots/game over his career) and is not particularly efficient with the shots he does take (2.7 shooting percentage).  Here is your odd Orpik offensive number: 0.  In 703 regular season games in his career, he has not had a game winning goal.  Only one defenseman has played as many or more games than Orpik over the past ten seasons and has a lower average points per game: Nick Schultz (0.17 points per game in 753 games to 0.19 in 697 games for Orpik).

Consistent good judgment.  Although he has managed his total penalty minutes relatively well, he does seem to have a lingering tendency to take penalties at inopportune times, and his high hit volumes have a flip side of being in other than the best defensive position when lining one up.

Fearless’ Take…  Orpik has at least 200 games of regular season game experience (703 games) on any Capitals defenseman (Mike Green: 503).  His 92 games of post-season experience is at least 35 more than any other Capitals defenseman (Green: 57).  The Caps have guys who can move the puck – Green, John Carlson, Matt Niskanen.  What they’ve lacked is a dependable presence who can move guys out of harm’s way in the defensive zone.  Orpik provides that.  Think of him as the defensive version of Mike Knuble, a guy with experience who knows his game and plays it.

Cheerless’ Take…

He’s 34 years old, he isn’t very fleet of foot, he isn’t a great puck handler.  He has all those games under his belt and almost 16,000 minutes of regular season and playoff hockey on his resume.  How much does he have left in the tank?

The Big Question… Is Brooks Orpik’s value as a stopper on this team or as mentor?

Well, he won’t lack for opportunities for either.  The Capitals have lacked a reliable defensive presence with a physical edge in their own zone probably since Brendan Witt was in his prime with the club.  The Capitals still have a relatively young group of defensemen.  Mike Green is 28, Matt Niskanen is 27, Karl Alzner is 26, John Carlson is 24, and Dmitry Orlov is 23.  It is reasonable to think that Orpik is going to fill both the role of steady defensive zone influence and as an example to the still young quintet of defensemen the Caps will (or would like to) put on the ice night in and night out.

In the end…

There was no lack of commentary on the wisdom of giving Brooks Orpik a five-year contract worth $25 million.  But that is the business side of the operation.  It is important to separate the player’s contract from the player’s performance on the ice, and with respect to the latter to concern oneself with the here and now, not year five of the deal.  Even if Orpik plays third pair minutes, he provides the Capitals an upgrade over what they had playing the position last season.  The Caps have enough depth in puck movers; Orpik provides the sturdy defensive play that has been missing. 

After spending eleven seasons with one club, 14 in one organization, one wonders what the transition to a new city and a new club might be like, especially when that new start is with one of his old team’s most hated rivals.  On the other hand, it might be just the tonic to revitalize Brooks Orpik’s game and provide the Caps with some of the things they lacked last season in coming up just short of a playoff berth.

Projection: 72 games, 2-9-11, even

Photo: Martin Rose/Getty Images

Washington Capitals 2014-2015 Previews -- Defensemen: Dmitry Orlov

Dmitry Orlov

“Come what may, all bad fortune is to be conquered by endurance.”

-- Virgil

When the Washington Capitals drafted defenseman Dmitry Orlov out of Mettalurg Novokuznetsk in the KHL with the 55th overall pick in the second round of the 2009 NHL entry draft, he was the 20th defenseman taken to that point. In what was obviously a draft heavily weighted to that position, Caps fans might have wondered just what the team had, a steal at the position, or a reach. Then, we had to wait. Orlov spent another two seasons with Mettalurg, finally arriving in North America at the tail end of the 2010-2011 season to join the Caps’ AHL affiliate in Hershey.

After that brief stint with the Bears to close the previous season, Orlov started with the Bears in 2011-2012. He did not stay long. He was promoted to the Caps in late November and skated in 60 games for the parent club in his rookie season. And as it turned out, Orlov was one of only three rookie defensemen to play in 60 games, skate for at least 1,000 minutes, and record at least 19 points (Jake Gardiner and Justin Faulk were the others). He was fifth in hits among all rookie defensemen (bringing back the little-used these days hip check). It appeared he might be, if not a yet a steal, then certainly a defenseman to watch moving forward.

Orlov’s progress came crashing to a halt in 2012-2013 when he suffered a pair of concussions that limited him to just 31 games with Hershey (18 of which came during the NHL lockout) and just five with Washington.

The 2013-2014 season started with a whole different set of challenges for Orlov, illustrated by this list:

• September 30: Assigned to Hershey
• October 30: Recalled from Hershey
• November 3: Assigned to Hershey
• November 4: Recalled from Hershey
• November 13: Assigned to Hershey
• November 17: Recalled from Hershey
• November 22: Assigned to Hershey
• November 25: Recalled from Hershey
• November 26: Assigned to Hershey

In none of those four recalls did Orlov appear in a game for the Capitals. It made for some tension between the club and at least the player’s agent.  Orlov was recalled one more time, on November 30th. Starting with that night’s appearance against the New York Islanders, Orlov went on to play in 54 games, going 3-8-11, minus-1. Despite the shuttling between Hershey and Washington and the whiff of ill will it produced, the club re-signed him to a two-year contract extension in March.

Two months later, playing at the world championship, he broke his left wrist in a game against Team USA. At the time he said, "My arm is broken and I can't turn it, so there is no point in suffering and trying to play. I'd only be a burden to my team.”  Really? He was considering playing with a broken wrist? Tough kid. Unfortunately, the broken wrist is still not healed sufficiently for Orlov to skate in games for the Capitals as the pre-season winds down.

Fearless’ Take… The injuries aside, a mid-second round pick, still only 23 years old, averaging 4-17-20 per 82 games. If the Caps got that level of production out of him this season, they would probably be thrilled, given the hurdles set before him the past couple of years. If anything, he might be a late bloomer. Not having put up much in the way of offense with Mettalurg, he put up passable numbers in Hershey, averaging 11-33-44 per-82 games with the Bears over three seasons. It would be quite a stretch to think Orlov has the talent or would get the ice time to come close to those numbers, but it suggests there is room for growth in his offensive production.

He also had very respectable possession numbers last season (90^th in Corsi-on ice at 5-on-5 among 237 defensemen playing in at least 20 games, eighth in Corsi-relative among that same group).

Cheerless’ Take…

About those possession numbers, cuz.  He played 54.4 percent of his 962 5-on-5 minutes with Mike Green last season, with whom he had a 55.9 Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5.  With other defenseman he did not fare as well.  In order of his share of minutes, with Tyson Strachan (15.3 percent of his time) his Corsi-for percentage was 40.4.  With Connor Carrick it was 10.6 percent of his time and 45.5.  With John Carlson it was 9.7 percent of his time and 45.5.  Get the point?

The Big Question… Is Orlov ready (injuries notwithstanding) to be a regular top-six defenseman?

There is a widely held assumption in Capitals Nation that Dmitry Orlov is going to be a regular third-pair defenseman this season. At the moment, that would seem to be just that, an assumption. He still has just 119 games of NHL experience, plus 65 games at the AHL level. He is still very green, and it would seem more than a bit unclear whether he will grow into a tall and strong (well, strong… 6’0” seems to be where he will top out, height-wise).  He hasn’t really shown that he can consistently: a) stay healthy, b) provide an offensive option from the blue line, c) pick his spots wisely when it comes to stepping up to make a hit, d) reliably defend in his own zone. 

In the end…

Dmitry Orlov is still a prospect.  Folks have him penciled in as the sixth defenseman, and that is probably a reasonable assumption.  Absent injury, it would be his position to lose to start the season.  But by the same token, it is not a given.  Injuries have occurred with horrible timing in his young career, first keeping him from taking advantage of prep work at Hershey during the 2012 lockout to jump start his 2013 season with the Caps, now keeping from him from cementing his spot on the top six to start the season. 

Those lost games mean lost development time as well, stunting his progress further.  His absence could provide an opportunity for another defenseman to step up.  Jack Hillen, another defenseman with a history of injury, has been reasonably effective when he has been healthy.  Another left-handed shooting prospect such as Nate Schmidt might sneak into the mix. 

Dmitry Orlov has made progress, but the games over which his has come has been stretched out over a longer period of time, and even with that progress, there is a certain “passenger” aspect to it – his much better possession numbers with Mike Green than with any other defenseman last season, for example.  It indicates there is more progress that needs to be made.  The Caps have a much deeper defense this season than last, and that provides a bit of a shield as Orlov continues his development, so long as he can remain in the lineup.

Projection:  58 games, 4-11-15, plus-1

Photo: Rob Carr/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2014-2015 Previews -- Defensemen: Matt Niskanen

Matt Niskanen

“Let your dreams outgrow the shoes of your expectations.”

-- Ryunosuke Satoro

When the Washington Capitals signed former Pittsburgh Penguin defenseman Matt Niskanen to a seven-year/$40.5 million contract on the heels of signing former-now-reunited teammate defenseman Brooks Orpik on July 1st, the deal was not only the longest and richest contract of the 2014 unrestricted signing period, it was among the largest deals the Caps have ever made with an unrestricted free agent from another team.

It is a lot of money and a long term for a “puck moving” defenseman who ranks 56th in goals scored among defensemen since he broke into the league in 2007-2008, 47th in points. What the Caps bought was four things:

1. Improvement. Over the past four seasons Niskanen has improved each year in goals per game (from 0.02 to 0.12), assists (from 0.14 to 0.44), and points (0.16 to 0.57).

2. Career Year. The 2013-2014 season was a career best for Niskanen. He set personal bests in goals (10, tied with P.K. Subban and Drew Doughty, among others, for 18th in the league among defensemen), assists (36, tied for ninth), and points (46, 12th in the league). Some of that might have been fueled by a potent Penguin power play (3-12-15), but Niskanen ranked only 23rd in power play points. He ranked sixth in even strength points among defensemen.

3. Depth. Niskanen, along with Orpik, provides a level of depth the Caps have not had on the blue line in at least a decade. Teams in the early 2000’s could go four-deep without a big drop off (2001-2002, for example, had: Sergei Gonchar, Sylvain Cote, Brendan Witt, and Ken Klee), but you might have to go back to the 1997-1998 Stanley Cup final edition of the club to find a Caps team as deep as the 2014-2015 can be with the addition of Niskanen and Orpik.

4. Prime. Niskanen will not turn 27 until early December. He is entering the chronological prime of his career. His addition makes for five of the projected top-six defensemen having an age range of 23 to 28, once Dmitry Orlov returns to the lineup.

As you might expect, his performance with the Penguins last season looked a lot better in wins than in losses. In 51 wins he was 7-27-34, plus-34. By itself his points line looked a lot like his previous career best year, his sophomore season with the Dallas Stars in 2008-2009 (6-29-35 in 80 games). That kind of performance suggested he was no passenger, even if you could also reasonably say that he benefitted from having a skilled offensive club around him.

Fearless’ Take…

Plus-minus has its limits as a metric, but here is something. He was only a minus-1 in 30 regulation and extra time losses. To the extent plus-minus serves as a gross indicator of good things and bad things happening on ice, there did not seem to be many bad things happening on Niskanen’s watch in losing efforts.

He had strong possession numbers, too.   Niskanen was 41^st of 197 defensemen appearing in at least 40 games in Corsi-for/on-ice at 5-on-5 (behindthenet.ca) , sixth among that group in Corsi-relative (on-ice relative to off ice)  That he finished ninth in PDO among those defensemen suggests a certain amount of luck in his favor.  All of those numbers were best among the Penguins’ defense.  But here’s the thing.  Those rankings aren’t much different from his last full year in Dallas in 2009-2010 (behindthenet.ca).  Niskanen might just be a good possession defenseman.

Cheerless’ Take…

He ain’t a workhorse, cuz.  Last year he averaged 21 minutes a night, the most he’s averaged over his seven-year career.  Last year he was fourth on the Penguins in even strength ice time.  He was third in average power play ice time, and he doesn’t kill penalties (42 seconds a game shorthanded last year).  He might not play top pair with the Caps, but he hasn’t yet shown he can skate top pair minutes, anyway.  Last year he skated most at 5-on-5 with, inorder, Sidney Crosby, Jussi Jokinen, Chris Kunitz, and Evgeni Malkin.  That’s pretty nice shelter there.  Is he going to have that with the Caps? 

The Big Question... Just what is Matt Niskanen’s role?

By Washington Capitals standards, Matt Niskanen is a big free agent acquisition.  Signing players in their prime on high-dollar, long-term deals is not something the Caps have done a lot of over the years.  But if one looks at Niskanen’s comparables by age (25-29) and cap hit ($5.5-6.0 million), courtesy of capgeek.com,  one sees a nice, tidy neighborhood: Tobias Entrom, Brent Burns, Brent Seabrook.  It is a neighborhood of upper-middle class homes, not the McMansions where Shea Weber, P.K. Subban, and Ryan Suter reside.  And that raises the matter of the role Niskanen will play for the Caps.  He could end up on any of the three pairs, skating on the right side next to Karl Alzner, Brooks Orpik, or Dmitry Orlov (or whoever mans that spot until Orlov is healthy). 

As Cheerless noted, Niskanen has not been called upon to be a minutes-eater, and chances are he will not be one for the Caps.  He figures to get the 17-or-so even strength minutes he had with the Penguins the last two seasons.  Chances are he will at least start as the third option at the point on the power play, suggesting he will not get the three minutes a game on the man advantage he enjoyed in Pittsburgh last season.  He was not a penalty killing fixture with the Penguins, and it is uncertain that he will increase his time in those situations. 

In the end…

This discussion argues for moderating expectations with respect to Niskanen.  He is a good – a very good – defenseman.  He provides a measure of depth in skill that the Caps have not had at the position in some time.  He is not a slam-dunk first pairing defenseman, and truth be told, the notion of a “top pair” loses some meaning on this club when they can ice five very good defensemen.  It suggests that Niskanen will be part of a robust chorus, a group that will average similar minutes in even strength ice time, the differences among them being in how they are deployed on special teams.  

His numbers might not reach those he put up in his career year last season, but think of his contribution in terms of “wins over replacement.”  He will be a big improvement over the cast of defensemen from last year that he replaces, and that should be enough to secure a few more wins for the Caps, the margin they would need for a return to the playoffs.  It is not expectations for Niskanen’s own numbers that are relevant here, it is the expectation for the team given his presence and how it firms up what was a thin back line that should be one’s focus.

Projection: 76 games, 7-23-30, plus-6

Photo: Geoff Burke-USA Today Sports

Washington Capitals 2014-2015 Previews -- Defensemen: Jack Hillen

Jack Hillen

“Here is the rule to remember in the future, When anything tempts you to be bitter: not, 'This is a misfortune' but 'To bear this worthily is good fortune.'”

-- Marcus Aurelius

If there is a player who has endured more on-ice misfortune over the past two seasons than Washington Capitals defenseman Jack Hillen, keep the news to yourself. We don’t want to be more depressed. Hillen, who signed a one-year deal with Washington in July 2012, had to wait until the NHL and the players association settled their labor differences before he could take the ice with his new club at the start of the 2012-2013 season. There he was, though, stepping out on the ice January 19th – opening night. He skated five shifts in the first 24 minutes of the game. They were rather eventful, two of those shifts ending in penalties (one for each team), and a third ending in a Lightning goal. The sixth shift of his night was eventful in a different sort of way.

Vincent Lecavalier sent Hillen into the boards with a check that left Hillen with a separated shoulder that would keep him out of the lineup for the next two months. He finished the abbreviated season appearing in only 23 games, going 3-6-9, plus-9. It was a mere warm-up for how he started his next season.

Hillen, who re-signed with the Caps on a two-year deal the previous April, started the first year on his new contract by getting through Opening Night of the 2013-2014 without incident. It was the second game that did him in. On just his third shift of the game his right leg was pinned awkwardly against the boards by the Calgary Flames’ Lance Bouma. He sustained a fractured tibial plateau – a broken leg – that required surgery and five months of recuperation. He returned in March and played in 11 games. In that 11th game, against the Los Angeles Kings, Hillen was curling through center ice in overtime when he crossed paths with teammate Alex Ovechkin. Hillen is 5’10”, 190 pounds; Ovechkin is 6’3”, 235 pounds. Physics being what it is, Hillen took the worst of the collision. He suffered a concussion that ended his season.

It was not even the first time he suffered a serious injury at the hands of Ovechkin. While playing for the New York Islanders in January 2010, he took a slap shot by Ovechkin to the face, suffering a broken jaw and missing six weeks. As for last season, Hillen appeared in only 13 games, posting a scoring line of 0-1-1, minus-4.  The hockey gods have not been kind to Jack Hillen.

Fearless’ Take…

Let’s see… 3-7-10, plus-5 in 36 games. That works out to 7-16-23, plus-11. That’s not bad for a guy you would think of as a third-pair defender. It’s not far off his career 82-game pace of 4-16-20. He is a reasonably consistent producer on the offensive end on a lower defensive pair.

Cheerless’ Take…

He is, as you say, cuz, “a reasonably consistent producer on the offensive end blah blah blah.” Unfortunately, he is not consistently in the lineup. It’s not all on him, getting hurt and all, but 36 games over two seasons? After appearing in career high 69 games with the Islanders in 2009-2010, his games played has gone 64, 55, 23, 13. It’s getting where you might be better off counting how many periods he played, or how many shifts. And he was not such a great possession player in those 13 games last season. Eleventh of 14 defensemen in Corsi-for/on-ice; same in Corsi-relative/on-ice. His PDO (968) was second worst among those defensemen, which suggests bad luck, but hey, that’s just the sort of luck that has plagued Hillen in his two years here. Somebody owes this guy… a lot.

The Big Question… What is the over/under on games played for Jack Hillen this season?

That is as much a question that pertains to his relationship to the re-tooled roster as it is to his penchant for injuries that rob him of huge chunks of games. If the top-five are John Carlson, Karl Alzner, Mike Green, Matt Niskanen, and Brooks Orpik; and you believe that the 6D spot is Dmitry Orlov’s to lose (once he is fully healthy), then Jack Hillen is competing with John Erskine for the 7C spot. The odd part about this is that it is Hillen’s susceptibility to unavailability for long stretches that might make him ill-suited to be ready at a moment’s notice, to be “available.”  Circumstances what they are, the over/under might be the number of games he played last season: 13.

In the end…

Jack Hillen is something of the forgotten defenseman on the roster. Caps fans generally know the top-five, follow the injury progress of Dmitry Orlov, opine on the merits of a Steve Oleksy, Nate Schmidt, or a Cameron Schilling on the roster. But Hillen? Perhaps it is his quiet demeanor, but sometimes it escapes notice that he is still on the parent roster and might very well open the season as the sixth defenseman, especially since he plays for a coach with whom he is familiar.  Hillen played for Barry Trotz in Nashville.

That he has come back from two serious injuries says that his demeanor should not be confused with a lack of determination. Each was the sort of injury that could cause a downward career spiral, but he managed to work through both and seems to have survived his collision with the Russian locomotive intact as well.

The new beefed-up roster on the blue line is what will present Hillen with perhaps a bigger challenge. His resume does not argue for occupying a top-six spot on this roster, even if he is in full health. On the other hand, in the nine seasons since the 2004-2005 lockout the Caps have used between nine (2005-2006, 2007-2008) and 14 defensemen (last season). Even if Hillen gets only spot duty, there would seem to be a place for him on this roster. He deserves at least that kind of good fortune.

Projection: 14 games, 0-1-1, minus-2

Photo: Elsa/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2014-2015 Previews -- Defensemen: Mike Green

Mike Green

“I'm always making a comeback but nobody ever tells me where I've been.”

-- Billie Holiday

From 2007-2008 through 2009-2010 there was no more dangerous offensive defenseman in the National Hockey League than the Washington Capitals’ Mike Green. Over those three seasons he led all NHL defensemen in a number of offensive categories, some by a wide margin:

• Total goals: 68 (Shea Weber was second with 45)
• Goals per game: 0.30 (Zdeno Chara: 0.18)
• Total points: 205 (Nicklas Lidstrom: 178)
• Points per game: 0.91 (Sergei Gonchar: 0.81)
• Even strength goals: 31 (Duncan Keith: 25)
• Power play goals: 36 (Mark Streit: 26)
• Game winning goals: 12 (Andy Greene: 11)
• Shots on goal: 682 (Chara: 665)
• Shots per game: 3.03 (Chara: 2.81)
• Shooting percentage: 10.0 percent (Andrei Markov: 8.6 percent)

It is amazing enough that Green led in so many categories over those three years, but what is just as amazing is that there is no clear “second best.” The second highest totals in that list are spread over eight different defensemen. Green, for those three years, with a 68-137-205, plus-69 scoring line, was a dominant offensive force from the blue line.

Then came the injuries and the coaching changes. Over the next three seasons Green played in only 116 of 212 games and had a total scoring line of 23-34-57, plus-8. The injuries – upper body, concussion, ankle, groin, concussion again – took away too many games. The parade of coaches – Bruce Boudreau, Dale Hunter, and Adam Oates – made for too many changes in style that was an especially important factor for a player who controlled a great deal of play with breakouts and passing. He did, however, have a productive year in Oates’ first year behind the Caps’ bench, going 12-14-26 in 35 games. His 0.74 points per game was sixth among all defensemen in the league.

Last season Green made another tentative step back toward something approaching his best years. In 70 games he went 9-29-38, his highest point total since the 2009-2010 season (19-57-76 in 75 games). Even though his points per game (0.54) slipped to 24th in the league, the 70 games played was the most he played since that 2009-2010 season. As it is, since Mike Green’s first big season in 2007-2008, he is the only defenseman in the league to record 100 goals and 300 points.

Fearless’ Take…

As it is, through all the injuries Mike Green still led the Caps’ defensemen in scoring in five of the last seven seasons and was second once. He is one of only four defensemen in franchise history to score at least 100 goals with the club (103), and he has done so playing in at least 151 fewer games than the other three. He should pass Calle Johansson (113) for third place on the list this season. He is sixth on the franchise list in points by a defenseman (315) and could pass Larry Murphy (344) for fifth place this season.  Green is not only the dean of the defense at this point in his career (longest in terms of service), he is the most among the most accomplished in the history of the franchise.

One thing that might help with respect to Green’s consistency.  Get him a regular partner.  Over the last four seasons he has spent the most 5-on-5 ice time with four different partners (in percentage of ice time):

• 2010-2012: Jeff Schultz (60.2)
• 2012-2013: Roman Hamrlik (53.1)
• 2012-2013: Karl Alzner (77.9)
• 2013-2014: Dmitry Orlov (40.9)

With two new kids on the block and a new coach evaluating everyone on a fresh canvas, Green might yet have a fifth most-frequent partner.

Cheerless’ Take…

OK, cuz, try this on. The Caps were 30-27-13 in the 70 games in which Green played, 8-3-1 in the games he missed. You wonder if there isn’t a changing of the guard going on here. John Carlson had more average ice time overall (24:30 to 22:43), more average power play ice time (3:08 to 2:45), more goals (10 to 9), and more power play goals (5 to 3). Carlson had 22 power play points to Green’s 15. And, Green seemed to fade late. He was 8-27-35, minus-11 in his first 55 games, a 12-40-52 scoring pace over 82 games. In his last 15 games of the season he was 1-2-3, minus-5, a 5-11-16 scoring pace and a pace for a minus-27 over 82 games.

The Big Question… Is Mike Green destined to remain a Capital?

Mike Green is in his contract year, winding up a three-year deal paying him $6,083,333 a year. With $20.0 million in salary cap space committed to five defensemen in 2015-2016 it seems unlikely that the Caps would be able, even if they were inclined, to accommodate an extension at that salary, let alone a raise. Green’s injury history makes any such investment quite risky as he approaches his 30th birthday (he will turn 30 on about Opening Night of the 2015-2016 season).

If Green was to put up big numbers for the Caps this season, it would complicate things even further. Bigger numbers, more suitors in free agency, the potential for an even bigger payday. As it is, Green has the 11th largest cap hit among defensemen in the league. His comparables by age (26-30) and by caps hit ($5.5-6.5 million) would include:

• Brent Seabrook (29 years old/$5.8M cap hit)
• Brent Burns (29/$5.76M)
• Tobias Enstrom (29/$5.75M)
• Matt Niskanen (27/$5.75M)
• James Wisniewski (30/$5.5M)
• Matt Carle (30/$5.5M)
• Dan Girardi (30/$5.5M).

In terms of roster and cap management, the question might be how Green gets slotted and for how long a term.  The Caps have three defensemen – Carlson, Orpik, and Niskanen – signed through 2017-2018.  The Caps will presumably want to sign Alzner, whose contract expires after the 2016-2017 season to grant him unrestricted free agent status.  Where does Mike Green fit in this puzzle?  Four-and-24 (to use round numbers)?   That would be about $25 million tied up in five defensemen, a substantial share of the salary cap.  Corsi, Fenwick, and zone starts are not the only numbers that will bear watching this season.

In the end…

Mike Green was part of that first “rebuild” draft class in 2004, the one that included Alex Ovechkin and Jeff Schultz. More than any home-grown player since then, he has seen everything from a Calder Cup championship in 2006 as a prospect in Hershey to sharing time with some poor Caps teams in the early years out of the 2004-2005 lockout to the team’s return to competitiveness to a Presidents Trophy to the current unsettled state of affairs with the club.

Over the last 15 seasons no defenseman for the Washington Capitals has logged more total ice time than Mike Green, more than 11,000 minutes worth. It might be true that he will never fully return to those three amazing seasons that made him the best offensive defenseman of the period. Still, a return to health could provide the opportunity to make him a threat once more. Whether he can put together another 1,500 or so minutes in 2014-2015 will go a long way to determining whether the Capitals can make a comeback to the post-season, whether Green can make a comeback to a level of play approaching what the Caps enjoyed a few years ago, and whether he can come back to the club past this season.

Projection: 74 games, 14-38-52, plus-7

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Washington Capitals 2014-2015 Previews -- Defensemen: John Erskine

John Erskine

“My work is a game, a very serious game.”

-- M. C. Escher

Since John Erskine joined the Washington Capitals as a free agent in September 2006, only 12 NHL defensemen have logged more penalty minutes.  The thing is, though, Erskine compiled his 529 penalty minutes in only 350 games, while 11 of the 12 defensemen in front of him on that list did it in more than 400 games, six of them in more than 500 games.

That statistic speaks to the hard way that John Erskine makes a living, something that deserves more respect that it sometimes gets from fans.  He is the closest player – perhaps the only player – resembling a physical defenseman the Caps have had since he arrived.  Consider the list of Capitals defensemen who have played in at least 100 games with the club since Erskine arrived:

• Mike Green
• Jeff Schultz
• Karl Alzner
• John Carlson
• Shaone Morrisonn
• Tom Poti
• Milan Jurcina
• Brian Pothier
• Dmitry Orlov

There are not many defensemen with the adjective “physical” attached to them on that list.  Here is another way to look at it.  Erskine has been involved in 29 regular season fights in a Capitals uniform.  The other eight defensemen on that list above were involved in a combined seven fights in their tenures with Washington.  If the Discovery Channel ever brings back “Dirty Jobs,” John Erskine could host it in place of Mike Rowe.

Unfortunately, doing the dirty work has come at a price for Erskine.  Of the 622 regular season games that could have been played in Erskine’s eight seasons in Washington, he has appeared in only 350 of them, just 56 percent of the total number of games.  Only once – in 2010-2011 when he appeared in 73 games – has Erskine played in more than 52 games in a season with the Caps.  The injuries that accumulated over those eight seasons – foot, thumb, lower body, upper body, concussion, leg, hand, shoulder, knee – have peeled off a lot of games from those in which Erskine might have appeared.

Fearless’ Take…

For all the abuse John Erskine has taken physically over his eight seasons in Washington, he is 14^th on the list of games played as a defenseman with the franchise, and it is possible that he passes both Shoane Morrisonn and Rick Green (tied with 377 games apiece) this season.  That experience might not be as big an issue with the addition of Brooks Orpik (703 regular season games) and Matt Niskanen (491 games), but experience can only be earned, and there are young Caps defensemen who are still building on that.  It might require careful management, but Erskine’s experience (not to mention his ability to be a physical presence) can have its place.

Cheerless’ Take…

Cuz, there just isn’t any way to sugar coat this.  The Caps were 13-17-7 in games in which John Erskine appeared last season, 25-13-7 in games he sat out.  What do those fancy stat guys say, “constipation is not causation?”

(Peerless… “correlation is not causation”)

Yeah, that.  But still.  That should be an alarm going off when you consider that the Caps were 21-7-2 with Erskine in the lineup in 2012-2013, 6-11-1 without him, and that was with the same coaching staff (whatever you think of it).

The Big Question… Does John Erskine have a role to play in 2014-2015?

The Caps went out and got two free agent defensemen precisely because of the lack of depth in talent on the blue line in recent years.  While John Erskine is a high-effort player, there is a reasonable question about his being capable, at this point in his career, of being a 16-minute a night player on a contender (he averaged 15:51 a game over his first eight seasons with the Caps). 

He is going to have a hard time cracking the 2014-2015 lineup unless there are injuries or one of the top six (Alzner, Carlson, Green, Niskanen, Orpik, and Orlov) simply goes into the dumper in terms of his performance.  He seems relatively safe to start the season with Orlov still recuperating from a broken arm suffered during last spring’s world championship that could delay his return to the lineup.  There does seem to be a bulls-eye on Erskine with respect to his continued presence on the roster, though.

In the end…

John Erskine has been nothing less than a stand-up guy on a team that did not have much of a physical presence over his eight seasons with the club.  But the physical abuse has taken a toll.  He appeared in only 95 of 212 games over the last three seasons, only 37 of 82 contests last season.  With the additions of Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik for the defense, the Caps do not have a lot of spare minutes on the blue line into which Erskine can be slotted on a regular basis. Orpik, who can provide the physical style of play (within the rules) that Erskine might have provided, has been more durable a player than Erskine, despite being the same age (34).

As far as the physical style of play at the edge of the rules, there were rumblings of the Caps seeking to move Erskine’s contract so that the club could sign Paul Bissonnette, a move that might have save the team a considerable amount from Erskine’s $1,962,500 salary cap hit.  What it probably means is that Erskine is now on the edge of the roster, a 7/8 defenseman on this club.  If the Caps carry only seven defensemen, it would seem he will be in a battle with Jack Hillen for that seventh spot, especially now that Cameron Schilling (a prospect defenseman who is not waiver-exempt) was sent down to Hershey, pending his clearing waivers.

For eight years John Erskine has been a player who as much of more than any other Caps defenseman found himself in serious circumstances on the ice that required the exercise of his physical gifts and temperament.  The roster log jam is a different sort of circumstance in which he finds himself, one that is no less serious.

Projection:  17 games, 0-2-2, minus-2

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Washington Capitals 2014-2015 Previews -- Defensemen: John Carlson

John Carlson

"All right, Mr. DeMille, I'm ready for my close-up."

-- Norma Desmond, “Sunset Boulevard”

John Carlson had some cleaning up to do in 2013-2014.  Mainly in his own end.  Only eight defensemen were on ice for more goals in 2012-2013 than Carlson (61), and no defenseman was on ice for more power play goals against (28).   With regard to the latter, it wasn’t close.  The New York Rangers’ Dan Girardi was on ice for 22 power play goals against in second place.  Of 147 defensemen playing at least 500 5-on-5 minutes in 2012-2013, Carlson was 96^th highest in goals against/on-ice per 20 minutes. 

So, how did he improve in 2013-2014?  Carlson was on ice for the 11^th highest number of goals against among defensemen (95) and was on ice for the second highest number of power play goals against (33).  Of 200 defensemen playing at least 500 5-on-5 minutes, he was 82^nd highest in goals against/on-ice per 20 minutes. 

Carlson was something of a bellweather in terms of his performance numbers.  He did not have a wide spread in his scoring numbers between wins and losses.  He was 7-16-23 in 38 wins, 3-11-14 in 42 regulation and extra time losses.  But he did have a wide spread in his plus-minus numbers.  It was in the losses that the numbers told something of a tale.  Carlson was minus-22 in those losses and was a plus player in only six of them.  That is merely another angle from which you can see his playing time (almost 18 minutes a game at even strength) and those high goals against on ice totals.

Another thing about the ice time.  Carlson spent 72 percent of his 5-on-5 ice time last season paired with Karl Alzner.  That was a return to normalcy of a sort.  He spent only 9.9 percent of his time at 5-on-5 with Alzner in 2012-2013, that after spending 65.6 percent of his time with Alzner in 2011-2012 and 77.4 percent of his time with him in 2010-2011.

Fearless’ Take…

John Carlson tied for the team lead in games played (82), led the team’s defensemen in goals (10), was second in assists (27), was second in points (37), and led the team’s defensemen in shots (208), power play goals (5), power play points (22), and average time on ice (24:30).  Over his four full seasons in the league only three full-time defensemen have more even strength goals than Carlson (22): Karlsson, Shea Weber, and Keith Yandle.

And that whole goals scored on-ice thing that Peerless was yammering on about.  Carlson also happened to be on ice for the 11^th  highest number of total goals among defensemen and was tied with Erik Karlsson for fifth overall in power play goals for/on-ice.  He was also tied for eighth overall in power play points scored.

Carlson was the go-to defenseman for special teams last season.  There were 195 defensemen last season who appeared in at least 40 games.  Of that group only three – Philadelphia’s Kimmo Timonen, Detroit’s Niklas Kronwall, and Carlson – averaged at least three minutes of power play time and three minutes of shorthanded ice time per game.  Carlson averaged slightly more total average special teams ice time (6:52) than the other two (6:49 for Timonen, 6:25 for Kronwall).

Cheerless’ Take…

The possession numbers at 5-on-5 could have been better.  Carlson’s Corsi-for percentage (47.0) was 158^th of 200 defensemen playing at least 500 5-on-5 minutes last season.  His Corsi-for percentage weighted for his teammates was not much better (48.0 percent), 150^th among that group of defensemen. Carlson also had his issues against divisional opponents.  Outside the Metropolitan Division he was 7-22-29, plus-5 in 57 games.  In 25 games within the Metro, he was 3-5-8, minus-8.

The Big Question… Is this John Carlson’s year to step up and step out as a top NHL defenseman?

Maybe it is having played in Washington for five seasons where the attention, to the extent it exists for the hockey team, is generally centered on the trials and tribulations (and the goals) of Alex Ovechkin.   Maybe it is because the Capitals have not won as much as other teams, but John Carlson does not get much in the way of media attention, at least not as much as a top-shelf NHL defenseman might get.  That’s not to say that Carlson is an also-ran defenseman.  Hardly, but for a guy who was a first round draft pick, who has a world junior championship, who has two Calder Cup championships, who was a first team defenseman on the 2011 All-Rookie Team, and who had the most votes of any rookie defensemen for the Calder Trophy in 2011, the media spotlight does not often shine on him.

That could change.  Carlson has been playing a gradually expending role with the Caps since he entered the league late in the 2009-2010 season.  He is a man for all situations and has cemented himself as a core component of the Capitals for the foreseeable future.  While we have commented on his partner Karl Alzner’s consistency, Carlson has shown a certain consistency of his own.  His points per game over his first four full seasons with Washington fall in a tight range: 0.45/game in 2010-2011, followed by seasons of 0.39, 0.46, and 0.45.  Carlson compiled this resume not having reached his 25^th birthday (he will turn 25 in January). 

Now, it is time to take the next step.  Carlson might particularly benefit from having coaches experienced in developing defensemen behind the bench this season.  Barry Trotz and Todd Reirden might be able to tap the next vein of talent in Carlson’s repertoire in a way Adam Oates and Calle Johansson could not over the past two seasons.

In the end…

John Carlson has been a rock for the Capitals over the past four seasons.  He has had bouts with inconsistency in his own end, but that might be explained away by his youth and the development curve for defensemen.  He still has just 316 games on his NHL resume.  And even though that number is sixth among defensemen of his 2008 draft class (behind Zach Bogosian, Tyler Myers, Drew Doughty, Luke Schenn, and Michael Del Zotto), it is not a high volume for a position with a long developmental curve.

With the Caps improving their depth on the blue line this past summer, some of the heat might be taken off Carlson to carry as heavy an all-situation load as he did last season.  In that respect it is an opportunity for Carlson to substitute higher quality of play for logging heavy minutes or in having to face opponents’ top competition as part of shutdown pair in addition to his responsibilities to carry an offensive load. 

Cheerless noted that Carlson had rather ordinary numbers against Metropolitan Division opponents.  Here is another way to look at his performance.  He was 4-12-16, minus-4 in 28 games against the eight teams in the Eastern Conference that reached the playoffs last season.  If you take out his performance against the Philadelphia Flyers, against whom he struggled (0-0-0, minus-6), he was 4-12-16, plus-2 against the other seven teams over 24 games, a respectable level of performance against stiffer competition.  John Carlson is poised to take the next step forward in his developmental arc.  It is time for his close-up. 

Projection: 82 games, 12-28-40, plus-8

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Washington Capitals 2014-2015 Previews -- Defensemen: Karl Alzner

Karl Alzner

"I am constant as the northern star,

Of whose true-fix'd and resting quality

There is no fellow in the firmament."

-- William Shakespeare (Julius Caesar, Act III, Scene 1)

Karl Alzner might not be the most constant defenseman in the National Hockey League, but he resides in close proximity.  Over the last four seasons Alzner has appeared in every game, one of only four defensemen to do so.  He has been a constant, if modest, in his offensive production, scoring one or two goals in each of those four seasons, averaging between 0.15 and 0.22 points per game in the three full 82-game seasons in that span.  His penalty minutes per game ranged from 0.29 to 0.32.  His time on ice per game has ranged from 20:01 to 20:57 over the past four seasons.

On defense, Alzner has expressed a similarly constant nature to his game.  Over the last three seasons he has been on ice for 80, 55, and 85 total goals against; 30, 18, and 30 power play goals against.  That makes for a very consistent goals-against on ice per game. 

That’s on the surface.  In 2013-2014 Alzner had a bit of an odd season.  For long stretches he played with the consistency to which Caps fans have become accustomed.  However, there were two blocks of games last year in which he played in something of a funk.  There was a three-week span to start December in which over nine games he was 1-1-2, minus-11.  Oddly enough, the Caps were 5-2-2 in those games.

Then there was another nine-game stretch, this one coming from mid-March through April 1^st in which Alzner was 0-2-2, minus-4, a minus player in six of those games.  The Caps were 4-2-3 in those games.   Odd that in what might have been Alzner’s worst games of the season in terms of his own performance numbers, the Caps would go 9-4-5.

Fearless’ Take…

Last year at this time, Peerless pointed out that Alzner drew tough assignments in 2012-2013 based on the 5-on-5 ice time he logged against individual opponents.  That was certainly the case in 2013-2014, too.  The top ten players against whom Alzner played last season in 5-on-5 ice time were (source: stats.hockeyanalysis.com):

• Claude Giroux
• Eric Staal
• Jakub Voracek
• Marian Gaborik
• Evgeni Malkin
• James Van Riemsdyk
• Alexander Semin
• Jaromir Jagr
• Phil Kessel
• Travis Zajac

Not only does he draw tough assignments, he plays in tough geography on the ice.  Only two Capitals defenseman had a lower percentage of offensive zone starts last season at 5-on-5 than Alzner (49.8 percent; minimum: 20 games).  And no Capitals defenseman in that group had a better offensive zone finish/start differential (behindthenet.ca). 

Cheerless’ Take…

Among 200 defensemen playing at least 500 5-on-5 minutes last season, Alzner was 74^th in goals against/on ice per 20 minutes.  He was 162^nd in goals-for percentage on ice.  Alzner does not contribute a lot of offense on his own to push up the goals for percentage number but the rankings in those two areas are not what the Caps might want out of the guy they depend on being part of a shutdown pair.

And, there are defensive defensemen, but among 224 defensemen having played in at least 100 games over the past four years, only 37 have scored fewer goals per game than Alzner (0.02).  Only 11 of 124 defensemen having played in at least 200 games over the past four years have fewer goals than Alzner (6). 

The Big Question… Has Alzner plateaued?

We made mention of Alzner’s consistency over the past four seasons.  Looked at from another angle, that might be a case of Alzner have reached the ceiling of his play.  He is still just 26 years old and entering what should be the chronological prime of his career.   It might be a stretch to think that he will reveal much more of an offensive game, but the Caps have enough weapons from the blue line on offense.  Alzner is a player who is counted on to help shut teams down at the other end of the ice.  For example, he has been first or second in average shorthanded ice time per game over the past three seasons.  The odd thing about his even strength ice time is that last season was his lowest average even strength ice time in the last four seasons, more than a minute less (16:56) then he had in 2012-2013 (18:17). 

The Capitals have not been an especially good defensive team in recent years.  In the last three seasons the Caps have not ranked higher than 18^th in scoring defense and not higher than 16^th in penalty killing.  The Capitals have to be better in those rankings, and Alzner, given his role, has to be a significant part of that. If Alzner has another level as a shutdown defenseman, his growth in that area is likely to show up in those defensive rankings for the club.

In the end…

No defenseman in the draft class of 2007 has played in more regular season games than Karl Alzner.  Over the last four seasons he ranks 30^th among defensemen in total minutes played overall, and remember than he gets almost no power play time (only 44:55 combined over the last four seasons).  He is sixth among defensemen 25 or younger in the last four seasons in total minutes played, the others being Drew Doughty, Alex Pietrangelo, P.K. Subban, Erik Karlsson, and teammate John Carlson.  Alzner, who gets very little recognition outside the friendly confines of Capitals Nation is quite literally “unsung.”  But he, with John Carlson, have been among the most reliable and consistent defensemen in the league over the past four seasons.

Constant, dependable, reliable.  These have been the hallmarks of Karl Alzner’s career with the Capitals to date.  There would be worse things than to have him continue to be that constant, dependable, reliable defenseman.  One still hopes, though, that there is still some growth in his game.  Not necessarily at the offensive end, but in being that constant in the defensive zone who can keep opponents off the scoreboard.

Projection: 82 games, 2-14-16, plus-6

Photo: Evan Vucci/Associated Press