Washington Capitals Recap: A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 4 - Islanders 1

The Washington Capitals just roll on.  They won their second straight game and 11^th in 13 contests on Thursday night, defeating the New York Islanders, 4-1, at Barclays Center in Brooklyn.  It was a matter of relentless pressure in all three zones, denying the home team flurries of activity on offense and applying a consistent offensive pressure of their own to open up a 14-point lead on the second-place Islanders in the Metropolitan Division.

Jason Chimera got the Caps off and running early in the game in an example of there being no bad shots to take when you have the chance.  Marcus Johansson followed up a faceoff he took against Mikhail Grabovski by collecting the loose puck along the left wing wall and circling through the corner to the right of goalie Jaroslav Halak.  Johansson fed the puck ahead to Chimera on the other side of the Islander net, and Chimera circled out with defenseman Adam Pelech trailing him.  Chimera backed out and from a severe angle to Halak’s left flicked a shot that snuck between Halak and the near post to give the Caps a 1-0 lead just 5:45 into the contest.

Precisely ten minutes later, the Caps lit the lamp again.  Karl Alzner, of all people, led a rush by carrying the puck down the right wing.  Gaining the offensive blue line, Alzner slid the puck back to Alex Ovechkin at the top of the right wing faceoff circle.  Ovechkin wasted no time or motion in wristing a shot that squeaked through Halak and into the net to give the Caps a 2-0 lead at the 15:45 mark.

The Caps took that 2-0 lead into the second period, but it would be the Islanders scoring first in the middle frame, Brock Nelson taking a feed from Ryan Strome in the high slot and firing a wrist shot that beat goalie Braden Holtby to make it 2-1 just 1:59 into the period.

The Caps and Holtby stymied the Islanders thereafter, and they restored their two goal lead late in the period just after an Islander power play expired.  With Tom Wilson exiting the penalty box, Nicklas Backstrom took advantage of a lackadaisical Marek Zidlicky chasing down a puck below his own goal line.  Backstrom stripped Zidlicky of the puck, circled out from behind the Islander net and fed the puck out to Nate Schmidt closing in from the blue line.  Schmidt leaned into a shot and rocketed it past Halak to make it 3-1 with just 4:06 left in the second period.

From there the Caps applied the clamps to the Islanders, shutting them out the rest of the way, Nicklas Backstrom scoring an empty net goal with 2:42 left to close out the scoring in the 4-1 win.

Other stuff…

-- With the win the Caps added to their league leading win total on the road this season.  Their 15-4-2 record away from Verizon Center is two wins better than the Los Angeles Kings (13-6-2) and the San jose Sharks (13-6-2).  The closest Eastern Conference pursuer is the Florida Panthers (11-6-2).

-- Jason Chimera recorded his 12^th goal of the season.  That is news, but it isn’t the takeaway from his game.  He finished the contest with seven shots on goal and 93 shots on goal for the season in his 40^th game.  He had 96 shots on goal in 77 games last season. 

-- The lede for the game story might be Alex Ovechkin’s 497^th goal, but it was Nicklas Backstrom who had a goal and an assist, making it four straight games with a point.  He is one of 11 players in the league among 466 appearing in 30 or more games this season to average at least one point per contest (37 in 37 games).

-- The Caps had 38 shots on goal.  That total was surpassed in only two other games this season, when they had 40 against the Detroit Red Wings in a 3-2 Gimmick win on December 8^th and 43 in a 5-2 win over the Buffalo Sabres on December 30^th.

-- Marcus Johansson recorded an assist to extend his points streak to three games.  He is 5-6-11 in his last ten contests.  Karl Alzner had an assist, giving him points in three of his last four games.  With 12 points in 40 games he is on a 25-point pace that would top his career best (21 points in 2014-2015).

-- We can start marking Braden Holtby's record in terms of national holidays.  He is 18-0-2 in his last 21 appearances.  Four national holidays in the United States -- Veterans Day, Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year's Day -- have passed since his last loss in regulation, a 1-0 loss to the Detroit Red Wings on November 10th.

-- The Caps had 19 blocked shots, 11 of them by Matt Niskanen (6) and Dmitry Orlov (5).

-- The thing about young guys with skill is that sometimes they stand out, and sometimes they disappear.  After recording two goals in his previous four games, Andre Burakovsky did not record a shot attempt in 14:23 of ice time.

-- Ovechkin’s goal was his eighth in his last ten contests, three of those goals (including the goal in this game) being game-winners.

-- The possession game was interesting.  Overall, the Islanders out-attempted the Caps, 73-60.  However, at 5-on-5 the attempts were closer – 53-49, Isles.  In close score situations, the Caps had a 24-23 edge and had 13 scoring chances to nine for New York (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

In the end…

This game was a case of no individual player standing out so much as it was 20 guys playing their roles smartly.  This is not a sometime thing with this club these days.  Of course, there is the odd off game that creeps in, which is hardly unexpected over the course of an 82-game season.  The Caps have demonstrated an ability to avoid stringing such games together.  It has been a formula for unprecedented success.  Thirty wins in 40 games.  That is a 62-win pace.  It’s hard to think that the Caps will win 62 games this season (it would tie a league record set in 1995-1996 by the Detroit Red Wings), but at the moment this is the most consistent, most dominant team in the league.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 40: Capitals at Islanders, January 7th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals head into the great unknown on Thursday night when they take on the New York Islanders.  No, not into a black hole in space or into the deepest depths of the ocean, but to Barclays Center in Brooklyn, at which they will make their first ever appearance.

The Caps will visit Brooklyn having righted themselves, or so they hope, after stubbing their toe with a pair of losses to close last week.  Their 3-2 win over the Boston Bruins was a solid road game that they will hope to replicate against a team with whom they fought a hard, seven game series in the first round of last season’s playoffs.

On the other side, the Islanders have been doing some “righting” of their own.  After a stretch in which they lost four of five games ending with a 3-1 loss at home to the woeful Toronto Maple Leafs on December 27th, they have won three of their last four contests, two of those wins coming on the road (in Toronto and in Buffalo), and the third win coming in their last outing, a 6-5 win over the Western Conference-leading Dallas Stars.

This mini-stretch of four games has been a bit of an odd ride.  The offense is inconsistent and unsettled, bracketing six-goal performances against Toronto and Dallas around sparse two-goal efforts in Buffalo (2-1 win) and in Pittsburgh (in a 5-2 loss).  Meanwhile, the Isles defense and goaltending has been, if anything, more consistently bad in this run.  They allowed three or more goals in three of the four games (five goals twice), and their penalty kill has been dreadful, going 12-for-16 (75.0 percent).  That last statistic is made worse by the fact that all four opponent power play goals were scored in the last three games on just 12 attempts, a 66.7 percent penalty kill rate.

On an individual, “who’s hot, who’s not”  basis, there isn’t so much a “hot” Islander as there is some balance over the last four games.  Six different players have two goals apiece: Cal Clutterbuck, Anders Lee, Frans Nielsen, Nikolay Kulemin, John Tavares, and Kyle Okposo. 

All that is very nice for the Islanders, but it does leave a question of what’s up with Ryan Strome?  Last season, in his first full season with the club, Strome struck for 17 goals in 81 games.  One could envision a leap forward for the 22-year old, former fifth overall draft pick this season.  It has not happened.  Strome is on a pace to finish with roughly the same number of assists this year (31) that he had last season (33), but his goal scoring has dried up.  He has only three goals in 29 games this season and comes into this game on a 14-game streak without a goal.  He is 1-4-5, minus-1, in five career games against the Caps.

At another level of disappointment is the season John Tavares is having.  Being in the top-50 scorers among 776 skaters to have dressed for games this season is not the profile of a bad player, but it is not the level of production expected of Tavares, either.  He is the Islanders’ leading goal scorer and is second in points (15-14-29), but both his goals and assists are well below the pace he set when he finished fourth in the league in goals (38), tied for ninth in assists (48), and second in points (86).  He has shown recent signs of ramping up his production to levels to which we are more accustomed.  Tavares is 2-4-6 in his last six games.  He is 10-10-20, plus-3, in 21 career games against the Caps.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  The recent penalty killing problems are a bit odd, given that the Islanders are second in the league in penalty killing (85.6 percent).  It is an especially odd problem given that before the leaky last three games, the Islanders went 15 straight games without allowing a power play goal (35-for-35).  What they have been is stingy allowing power play goals at home.  Only Montreal and Chicago (five apiece) have allowed fewer than the Islanders (seven). 

2.  The Islanders sure are “Team Meh.”  They rank in the middle third in so many statistical categories… Power play (17th/18.8 percent), shots per game (14th/29.8), shots against per game (11th/30.4), faceoff winning percentage (15th/50.0), winning record in one-goal games (T-14th/10-5-5), wins when outshooting opponents (T-14th/10).  It is the profile of a team that neither does things especially well, nor especially poorly.

3.  What the Islanders can do is mount comebacks.  An 8-10-3 record when allowing the first goal does not look impressive, but it is the fifth best such record in the league.  But those comebacks don’t occur late in games.  The Islanders are 1-10-2 when trailing after two periods, tied for the seventh-worst record in the league.  Only four teams are without a win when trailing after 40 minutes, making that one win look even worse.

4.  The Islanders seem to have problems with some basic aspects of the game, at least so far as bench management is concerned.  Only two teams have more bench minor penalties that the Islanders (7): San Jose (8) and Detroit (9).

5.  New York has a rather pronounced difference in their possession numbers as far as ranking is concerned.   They are 21^st in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 in away games this season (47.3 percent), but they rank 11^th in the same statistic at home (51.9 percent; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  Washington plays the front runner role very well.  No team has more wins when scoring first (21), they are one of three teams with a perfect record when leading after one period (13-0-0; New Jersey and Philadelphia are the other perfect teams), and no team has more wins when leading after two periods (20).

2.  Folks probably know by now that Alex Ovechkin is four goals away from 500 for his career.  Not as many folks might know that Jason Chimera is four assists from 200 in his career.

3.  There are 26 active goaltenders with at least 20 career shutouts. Braden Holtby is one of them (22), and he has played in at least 35 fewer games than any of the other 25.

4.  Nicklas Backstrom is putting together a quietly efficient season as a goal scorer.  He is on a pace to finish with 25 goals, which would be the second highest total of his career, and his 18.0 shooting percentage is a career best to date.

5.  Washington’s possession numbers on the road have really deteriorated of late.  In their last 13 away games their Corsi-for is 45.4.  Over that period they were over 50 percent just three times, at Winnipeg on December 5^th (a 2-1 overtime loss), at Buffalo on December 28^th (a 2-0 win), and at Boston on Tuesday (a 3-2 win; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York:  Jaroslav Halak

Jaroslav Halak last appeared in a game for the Islanders on December 21^st, allowing two goals on 29 shots in a 5-2 win over the Anaheim Ducks.  Since then he has been on the shelf with an upper body injury.  He was taken off the injured reserve list on Tuesday, meaning he could return to action against the Caps on Thursday.  Thomas Greiss has not played poorly in his absence, his 3.33 goals against average more a function of high shot volumes faced (40.0 shots per 60 minutes), although his save percentage of .917 is middle-of-the-pack.  Getting Halak back would seem important to keep the Islanders from losing contact with the Caps in the Metropolitan Division standings entirely (they trail by 12 points).  Halak has been solid this season with a 10-6-3, 2.09, .923 record with two shutouts. He was slightly better than that leading up to his injury, going 5-2-2, 2.04, .926 in his most recent nine appearances.  Halak is 6-4-0, 2.67, .896 in ten career regular season appearances against the Caps.

Washington: Dmitry Orlov

Dmitry Orlov’s offensive production has been promising on one level.  He has already tied his goal output of the last season in which he played for the Caps (3, in 54 games in 2013-2014), and he has surpassed his point production from that season (11) with his 14 points to date.  On another level, he might need to strive for more consistency.  Over his last 22 games he has had a four game points streak (3-2-5), an eight game streak without a point, four assists over a four-game span, and a five-game streak without a point before he recorded an assist against Boston in Tuesday’s 3-2 win.  He has one goal in seven career games against the Islanders.

In the end…

If the Islanders allow shot volumes to the Caps in the same fashion as they have recently – three straight games allowing 40-plus shots, an average of 39.6 over their last five games – this game will not end well for the hosts.  That argues for the Caps applying pressure from the opening puck drop to force the Islanders into a defensive crouch.  The Caps have had some issues scoring in recent games, scoring fewer than three goals in three of their last seven games, but this could be an opportunity to improve on their scoring statistics. 

Capitals 5 – Islanders 2

Washington Capitals Recap: A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 3 - Bruins 2

The Washington Capitals set aside their two-game losing streak on Tuesday night and defeated the Boston Bruins, 3-2, at TD Garden in Boston. The win allowed the Caps to jump over the Dallas Stars to take the league lead in standings points (61) and wins (29).

The Caps opened the scoring 15 minutes into the contest on a goal by Andre Burakovsky. It was the product of a long journey in the moment for the young forward. As Evgeny Kuznetsov was working the puck along the wall with Landon Ferraro hounding him, Burakovsky took a long loop out of the offensive zone, curled around to the weak side, and made his way down the left wing. The Bruins seemed to be spellbound watching Kuznetsov, because Burakovsky ended up in open space in the left wing faceoff circle. Kuznetsov spied him and threaded a pass through the slot onto Burakovsky’s stick. Burakovsky finished the play, snapping the puck past goalie Tuukka Rask’s blocker on the short side to make it 1-0.

Kuznetsov called his own number in the second period to double the Caps’ lead. On a power play, he took a cross-ice feed from Nicklas Backstrom at the Boston blue line and skated down the right wing wall. Cut off by Dennis Seidenberg, Kuznetsov stopped and retreated up the wall a couple of steps. His passing lane blocked by Max Talbot, he curled into the circle, changed his shooting angle to work around Seidenberg, and wristed the puck over Rask’s left shoulder at the 12:40 mark to make it 2-0.

Boston got within a goal later in the period when Loui Eriksson finished a smartly executed play in the Caps’ zone, converting a Brett Connolly feed to beat goalie Braden Holtby past his blocker.

The Caps restored their two goal lead mid-way through the second period when Marcus Johansson answered the bell, or more precisely, the “ping.” Dmitry Orlov took a pass from Nate Schmidt and fired a shot at the Bruin net that rang off the far post past Rask. Johansson was set up at the top of the crease to take advantage of any rebound, and with Seidenberg unable to tie him up, he was able to flip the puck past Rask to make it 3-1, 10:41 into the period.

Boston closed to within a goal one more time just over a minute later on a Patrice Bergeron shot that was deflected by Justin Williams’ stick and beat Holtby on the far side, but that would be as close as they would get. Holtby turned away the Bruins’ last six shots and held them off for the last 101 second as the Bruins pulled Rask for an extra attacker to seal the 3-2 win.

Other stuff…

-- Holtby is now 17-0-2 in his last 20 appearances.  In those 20 appearances he has a goals against average of 1.88, a save percentage of .938, and he has two shutouts.  He leads the league overall in wins (25), and among goalies with at least 1,000 minutes played he is first in goals against average (1.93) and second in save percentage (.932).

-- Kuznetsov’s two points (goal, assist) gives him 37 on the season in his 39th game, tying his career high set last season in 80 games. It was his 11th multi-point game of the season, tied for fifth in the league on that list.

-- After going 25 games without a goal, Andre Burakovsky scored his second goal in four games.

-- The Caps won their 29th game in their 39th contest of the season. They did not win their 29th game last season until Game 55.

-- Patrice Bergeron wins faceoffs, a lot. He was 14-for-20 in this game, but the Caps were 21-for-33 against everyone else for a 27-26 edge overall.

-- The 3-2 win was the Caps’ 12th one-goal win this season.  While they are tied for fifth in one-goal wins, their .706 winning percentage (12-2-3) is best in the league.

-- Aaron Ness recorded an assist on the Burakovsky goal, his first point as a Capital.

-- With Jay Beagle on the shelf for a while, Andre Burakovsky might have to take over as good luck charm.  The Caps are 7-0-2 in games in which he recorded a point so far this season and undefeated (4-0-0) in games in which he scored a goal.

-- Zach Sill was credited with a team high five hits in just 7:57 of ice time.  One of them came early in the second period on Adam McQuaid (the second in a two-hit sequence on McQuaid over 40 seconds) that left McQuaid injured on the ice.  No penalty was called.  McQuaid (who was coming to what would be the end of a 1:13 shift) was playing the puck and turned as Sill made contact, the momentum forcing him into the glass.  McQuaid did not return.

-- Nate Schmidt gets the coupon for the all-you-can-eat buffet… an assist, plus-1, three shots on goal, two shots blocked, a missed shot attempt, one hit, two giveaways, a takeaway, and two blocked shots in 18:43 of ice time.

In the end…

What can you say.  This was a simple, workman-like road win.  The Caps out-attempted the Bruins (55-52), out-shot them (29-27), and out-played them by enough of a margin to post another two points on the ledger. With a 1-1-1 record on this five-game road trip they head to New York for their first game in the Islanders’ new arena in Brooklyn and for a return engagement against a Ranger team that they defeated soundly on the same ice sheet in the week before Christmas.  It will not be easy, but the Caps have shown an ability to win hard games, as they did against Boston on Tuesday night.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 39: Capitals at Bruins, January 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The holidays are behind us, and that means the National Hockey League is about to embark on the long slog that is the January-February portion of the season.  It is a time that tests a team’s discipline and focus, and for the Washington Capitals it begins with a visit to Boston to take on the Bruins in a battle of high-powered offenses.

Washington enters the contest with the league’s second best scoring offense and looking to get back on a winning path after losing consecutive games to close the old year and ring in the new.  Boston has the league’s third best scoring offense and will be looking to get the bad taste out of its mouth from a 5-1 pasting by the Montreal Canadiens in the Winter Classic played outdoors in Foxboro on New Year’s Day.

Washington had a fine December, posting an 11-1-1 record before dropping its final game of the month, to the Carolina Hurricanes (4-2), and before starting January with a Gimmick loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets (5-4).  For Boston, the schedule since December 1^st has been a roller coaster.  After closing November with five straight wins, the Bruins are 7-5-3 since, including regulation losses in four of their last five games.  All four of those losses were by multi-goal margins.

In those five games the Bruins were outscored by a 19-12 margin.  The odd part about their performance on offense, or lack of it, was their power play.  In the four losses the Bruins went 0-for-8, while in their lone win – a 7-3 win over the Ottawa Senators – the Bruins went 4-for-7.  Those four goals in their last game of December doubled their power play output for the preceding 13 games of the month (4-for-27/14.8 percent).

The scoring over the last five games has been as unbalanced among players as it has been unevenly distributed across the games themselves.  Only four players recorded goals in this 1-4-0 run for the Bruins, led by Matt Beleskey with four.  Those four goals doubled his total for the season and offered the first glimpse of the sort of player the Bruins might have expected when they signed him to a five-year/$19 million deal last July after he recorded 22 goals in 65 games for the Anaheim Ducks in 2014-2015.  Beleskey does not have a point and is a minus-3 in seven career games against Washington.

Patrice Bergeron and Jimmy Hayes are next in line in goal scoring over the last five games with three apiece.  They came upon them in somewhat different ways.  Bergeron scored the first of his three goals to give the Bruins a 2-1 first period lead in their game against the Buffalo Sabres on December 26^th.  It was a lead that the Bruins could not hold, losing the game, 6-3.  Bergeron scored a pair of goals, including the game-winner, in Boston’s 7-3 win over Ottawa on December 29^th.   Bergeron is 8-23-31, minus-5, in 36 career game against the Caps

Jimmy Hayes scored all three of his goals in this five-game stretch in that 7-3 win over Ottawa.  The hat trick was his first multi-goal game of the year and the first hat trick in his 202-game career to that point.  It interrupted quite a dry spell he was enduing.  Before that three-goal outburst, Hayes had one goal in his previous 21 games.  Hayes has a goal in six career games against the Caps.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Another note on Patrice Bergeron.  He is 50 percent or better on faceoffs in 31 of the 37 games he has played this season.  Only three times this season has he won fewer than ten draws in a game.  Oddly enough, among players taking at least 250 draws this season he does not rank in the top ten in winning percentage.  Bergeron is 13^th at 56.6 percent.

2.  Boston has already employed ten defensemen this season.  No team has used more (Edmonton and Tampa Bay also have dressed ten defensemen).  Nine of the ten Bruin defensemen to dress have points.  Only Matt Irwin, who dressed for only two games, does not have a point.

3.  Boston is one of two teams in the league to have scored 35 or more goals in each of the three periods in regulation this season (Dallas is the other).

4.  Brad Marchand will serve the second of a three-game suspension for clipping Ottawa’s Mark Borowiecki in the Bruins’ 7-3 win on December 29^th.  He is no stranger to league-imposed down time.  In March 2011 there was a two-game suspension.  In December 2011 there was a $2,500 fine.  In January 2012 there was a five-game suspension.  In January 2015 there was a two-game suspension.  And now, he is sitting for three games (log from tsn.ca).  He does not play well with others, it seems.

5.  Caps fans are acquainted with the matter of their team having a winning record despite some iffy possession numbers.  The same holds true for the Bruins.  Despite a 20-13-4 record, Boston is 18^th in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall (49.2 percent).  It does not get much better in score-adjusted (49.6/17^th) or close score situations (49.8/15^th; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  The Capitals are 10-0-0 in games in which Alex Ovechkin recorded an assist this season.  They are 10-0-1 when Marcus Johansson records an assist.  Helping is a good thing.

2.  The Caps have eight players with 20 or more points this season.  No team has more (Montreal also has eight). Those eight are: Evgeny Kuznetsov (35), Alex Ovechkin (34), Nicklas Backstrom (34), John Carlson (27), T.J. Oshie (25), Justin Williams (24), Marcus Johansson (24), and Jason Chimera (21).

3.  Washington has a plus-16 goal differential in the third periods of games this season, second in the league. They and the Dallas Stars (plus-24) are the only teams better than plus-10.

4.  Despite losing consecutive games by one-goal margins coming into this game with Boston, the Caps lead the league in winning percentage in one-goal games (.688/11-2-3).

5.  Odd thing about the Caps at 5-on-5 on the road.  The Caps have the best goal differential in the league (plus-15), but their Corsi-for at fives ranks 19^th (48.3 percent; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Boston: Tuukka Rask

Last season, goaltender Tuukka Rask allowed four or more goals 10 times in 70 appearances on his way to a 34-21-13, 2.30, .922 record with three shutouts.  While he has four shutouts in 27 appearances so far this season, he also has allowed four or more goals six times. In all six of those instances he allowed five or more goals, and his overall record of 14-10-3, 2.51, .914 is disappointing.  His 2.51 goals against average is the first time he has been above 2.50 since the 2010-2011 season when he posted a 2.67 GAA in 29 games.  His .914 save percentage is his lowest since he had a .886 mark (his career low) in just four games in 2007-2008, his first season in the NHL.  Rask looked to be turning things around in December, going 5-2-2, 1.38, .953, with two shutouts in his first nine appearances for the month.  However, he allowed three goals on 32 shots in the 7-3 win over Ottawa on December 29^th, the first time all month he allowed more than two goals in a game, and he followed that up by allowing five goals on 30 shots in the 5-1 loss to Montreal in the Winter Classic on New Year’s Day.  The Caps might not be the team to play to turn things back around.  Rask has a career record of 1-7-3, 3.01, .896 in 11 career appearances against Washington.  His only win against the Capitals came via shutout, a 16-save effort in a 3-0 win on March 6, 2014.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

Over the last five seasons, including this one, no Capital player has more points against Boston in regular season games than Nicklas Backstrom.  The odd thing about it is, all of his 11 points have come via assists.  He has not had a goal against the Bruins in a regular season game since April 5, 2010, a game in which he figured in all the scoring (1-2-3) in a 3-2 win.  It has been 15 games without a goal against the Bruins, but he has been effective, nevertheless.  Those 11 assists have come over his last 10 games against Boston.  He is 4-24-28, plus-8, in 26 career games against the Bruins.

In the end…

After losses to a pair of struggling teams in their last two outings, the Caps move up in weight class in competition as they head to Boston.  The Bruins might be missing their top goal-scorer in Brad Marchand, but it is still a formidable offense with which the Caps will have to contend.  What is more, the Bruins have special teams almost as formidable as the Caps.  Both teams are top-ten in both power play and penalty killing.  The fault line on which this game could be settled is the 5-on-5 play and whether the Caps’ league best goals-for/goals-against ratio (1.43:1) prevails over their iffy possession numbers overall.

Capitals 4 – Bruins 3

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 12

Week 12 for the Washington Capitals was an example of the old notion of “what have you done for me lately?”  The Caps had their 11^th winning week in 12, widened the lead in their division (from 10 to 12 points) and the Eastern Confernce (from 10 to 11 points), and yet by week’s end they looked like a tired, depleted, leaky group more than they did the team with the second best record in the league. 

Record: 2-1-1

The Caps came into Week 12 with a seven-game winning streak and a schedule of four games against teams that were a combined 42-53-12, none of the three teams they would face having winning records.  On paper, it looked like a good bet that the Caps would extend their streak to 11 games and establish an all but insurmountable distance between themselves and their closest division and conference pursuers in the standings.

A couple of solid wins over the Buffalo Sabres in a home-and-home series to open the week only fueled the sense that Week 12 would be a happy one, but the Caps lost two centers in the second contest against the Sabres.  Nicklas Backstrom sat out the third period after absorbing a bit hit on his last shift of the second period, and Jay Beagle sustained a hand injury that required surgery and will keep him out of the lineup for six weeks.  Backstrom came back to play in the last two games of the week, but for a team already missing both defensemen on its top pair – John Carlson and Brooks Orpik – and now a center who could play decent defense and win a lot of faceoffs, the four game week took its toll in the end.

Offense:  3.25/game (season: 3.13 /game; rank: 2nd)

The Caps had a good week in the offensive end of the rink, but it could have been better.  Washington faced four goaltenders (three of them backups) who started their games against the Caps with a combined record of 21-28-8, 2.74, .905.  Then they faced a third-string goalie – Columbus’ Anton Forsberg – making his first appearance of the season in overtime of a 4-4 game, and they failed to score on him despite the benefit of a 4-on-3 power play.

Overall, there was a lack of balance in the week as well.  Of the 13 goals scored, Alex Ovechkin had four of them, bringing his season total to 21, lifting him into fifth place in the league in goals, just a hat trick behind the Dallas Stars’ Jamie Benn.  Eight other Caps shared in the other nine goals, Marcus Johansson the only Cap of that group with two goals for the week.

If there were surprises in Week 12 for the Caps on offense, they came in the collection of players who had assists.  Tom Wilson tied for the team lead in that area with three helpers in four games, giving him 11 on the year (his career high is 13, set last season).  Matt Niskanen tied Wilson for the team lead with three assists for the week, bringing his total for the season to 14.  Of note is the fact that Niskanen recorded assists in each of the last three games of the week, and two of those assists came on the power play as he took over responsibility on the top power play unit for the injured John Carlson.

Defense: 2.50/game (season: 2.16 /game; rank:1st)

It was not a bad week for the Caps in terms of shots against, the team holding opponents to fewer than 30 shots in two of the four games.  It was not as if the Caps faced stiffs in that department as the Buffalo Sabres, who the Caps faced twice, and the Carolina Hurricanes ranked 13^th and 14^th in shots per game at week’s end (the Columbus Blue Jackets, who were held to 29 shots, rank 21^st) .

Then there was the subtle problem. With John Carlson and Brook Orpik on the shelf with injuries, Niskanen and Karl Alzner were moved up a rung to the top pair this week.  By the end of the week they had performed relatively well, Alzner being the only one of that pair to have been on ice for a goal against at 5-on-5 (and it was just one).  But it was Niskanen and Alzner on the ice with the clock approaching one minute in regulation and the Columbus net empty when Brandon Saad got behind them both to score the game-tying goal in the Caps’ 5-4 Gimmick loss to end the week.  Niskanen averaged more than 28 minutes of ice time for the week, Alzner almost 24 minutes, and they looked to be dragging a bit at the end.

Possession was an issue for the Caps in Week 12, again.  This week’s profile looked different though.  Overall, the Caps out-attempted opponents at 5-on-5 to a Corsi-for percentage of 52.3.  However, they were plus-22 in 5-on-5 attempts in the second Buffalo game of the week, minus-4 over the other three games.  And, their close score Corsi was a poorer 48.2 percent, plus-14 against Buffalo in that second of the home-and-home games and minus-23 otherwise.

Goaltending: 2.22 /.929 / 1 shutout (season: 2.02 / .927 / 2 shutouts)

Goaltending was another case of what looked like a good week overall until one got down to the particulars, especially at the end of the week.  Braden Holtby took the first two games of the week, the home-and-home set against Buffalo, and allowed just two goals on 58 shots (a .966 save percentage), winning both games and pitching a shutout in the first of the two games.

Holtby and Philipp Grubauer split the last two games of the week, going 0-1-1, 3.39, .892.  What was more disturbing was the save percentage in the third period of those last two games: .778 (14-for-18).  Was this a case of opponents getting better opportunities against a depleted and fatigued defense, was it a blip on an otherwise fine goaltending ledger for the season, or was it evidence of an emerging slump that might be a case of poor possession chickens coming home to roost?

Power Play: 3-for-10 / 30.0 percent (season: 25.6 percent; rank: 2nd)

The Caps had a good week on the man advantage for the most part, part of a run that has them converting 33.3 percent of their opportunities (9-for-27) over the last three weeks.  But not everything was unicorns and accordions here, either.  The Caps played four games and had just ten power play opportunities.  They had none against Carolina in a 4-2 loss, the second time this season they were not awarded a power play opportunity.  They had only one chance in the game in Buffalo to start the week.  More than half of their opportunities (six) and two of their power play goals for the week came against Columbus.  Overall, the Caps finished the week tied for the tenth-fewest power play opportunities per game (3.08).

What chances the Caps had, they fared well., to a point  They finished the week with three goals on 23 shots (13.0 percent shooting) in 17:01 of power play time (1.35 shots per minute).  More than a third of the shots came from Alex Ovechkin (8), but he did not record any of the three power play goals.  Marcus Johansson, Jason Chimera, and T.J. Oshie recorded the goals for the Caps.  The blot on the record was the power play in overtime against Columbus to end the week in which they shot 0-for-6 against a third string goalie (Anton Forsberg) on their way to a 5-4 freestyle loss.

Penalty Killing: 11-for-13 / 84.6 percent (season: 84.7 percent; rank: 5th)

Week 12 was a solid week for the penalty killers, part of another good three week run (27-for-31/87.1 percent).  That the Caps finished the week a plus-one in special teams despite a special teams index (power play plus penalty killing percentages) of 114.6 was not a problem of the men manning the shorthanded responsibility.  One might have liked finishing the week with less time spent killing penalties, the Caps skating 18:20 in shorthanded situations, 6:49 more than they spent on the power play.  But they made up for it with killing off penalties in an efficient manner, allowing only 17 shots on goal in that 18:20 of shorthanded ice time (0.93 shots per minute).

It would have been a lot better week without the last game of the week.  In their first three games of Week 12, the Caps killed all 10 shorthanded situations they faced and held opponents to 15 shots in 18 minutes of shorthanded ice time (0.83 shots per minute).  In that last game of the week, against Columbus, the Blue Jackets scored on both of their power play shots on goal and went 2-for-3 in 1:10 of power play ice time.

Even Strength 5-on-5 Goals for/Goals Against: 9-7 / plus-2 (season, 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio: 1.43; rank: 1st)

It was a good week overall, but it was better early than it was late at 5-on-5.  The Caps opened the week scoring both of their goals at evens in the shutout of Buffalo. After that it was break-even, splitting four 5-on-5 goals with the Sabres in their second game, going minus-1 in the 4-2 loss to Carolina, and going plus-1 in the 5-4 trick shot loss to Columbus.

It says something that a week in which the Caps had a 1.29 goals-for/goals-against ratio at 5-on-5 results in a drop in that number for the season.  It also hints at what might be a regression in that number if it starts to align more closely with possession numbers that are still an issue, an issue made more important by the injuries the team is dealing with at the moment.

Faceoffs: 111-for-241 / 46.1 percent (season: 49.5% / rank: 21st)

It was a bad week in the circle for the Caps.  They were under 50 percent in all four games and in all three zones for the week.  It was worse for missing Jay Beagle for the last two-plus games of the week after he suffered a hand injury.  Beagle was his typical efficient self, going 14-for-21 before he was sidelined.  The rest of the club was 44.1 percent, worse in the offensive end (42.3 percent) and the defensive end (43.3 percent).  Michael Latta was the only Cap taking more than ten draws for the week who finished over 50 percent (13-for-23/56.5 percent).

Goals by Period:

Third periods were not kind to the Caps in Week 12. The five goals allowed over the last three games after the shutout of Buffalo were double the goals allowed over the first two periods of games for the week and constitute 20 percent of the total goals allowed by the club in the third period of games this season before Week 12 (25).  As it is, the Caps are still the only club in the league to allow 30 or fewer goals in all three regulation periods this season.  Only four other teams have allowed 30 or fewer goals in two of the regulation periods this season.

In the end…

A 2-1-1 week looks better when the “2” comes at the end of the week and is something to build on.  When the week ends with a pair of losses, ending the Caps’ consecutive games streak without suffering back-to-back losses at 37 games, and to a pair of struggling teams, no less, it is cause for some concern. 

As the Caps embark on Week 13 and the last three games of their five-game road trip, they are facing their biggest challenge of the season – fight through the injuries that have depleted their defense and shortened the depth chart at center, and solve the persistent possession numbers problem they have had for more than a month.  If they do neither, the burden on goaltending becomes more acute and the likelihood of continued success diminished.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Alex Ovechkin (4-0-4, plus-1, 26 shots on goal, 53 shot attempts; 10 shots on goal against Buffalo; 22 shot attempts against Columbus)
• Second Star: Braden Holtby (2-0-1, 1.95, .931, one shutout)
• Third Star: Marcus Johansson (2-2-4, plus-1, power play/game-winning goal, personal season high seven shots on goal against Buffalo).

Washington Capitals Recap: A ONE-Point Night: Blue Jackets 5 - Capitals 4 (OT/Gimmick)

The Washington Capitals ended 2015 by seeing one streak come to an end.  They started 2016 seeing two more streaks come to an end as they dropped a 5-4 trick shot decision to the Columbus Blue Jackets on Saturday night.

It was an odd game from the start.  Dmitry Orlov took a slashing penalty less than 90 seconds into the contest, and Jack Johnson set off the cannon at Nationwide Arena just eight seconds later when he pounced on a loose puck from in close to the right of goalie Braden Holtby.  Keep this goal in mind, we will get back to it.

It was a Capitals power play that led to the tying goal just under six minutes later.  It was almost a replica of the Columbus power play goal.  T.J. Oshie won a faceoff to Matt Niskanen at the right point.  Niskanen slid the puck to Nicklas Backstrom, who started a set play, passing the puck down to Marcus Johansson at the goal line extended.  Johansson relayed the puck to Oshie in the slot, and Oshie one-timed it past goalie Curtis McElhinney to tie the game.  It came eight seconds after the faceoff win by the Caps.

The teams exchanged goals again later in the first period.  Columbus grabbed the lead back when the Caps could not clear their own end.  Alexander Wennberg held off Nate Schmidt along the right wing wall, a battle that seemed to mesmerize the Caps, because as it was going on, Brandon Saad worked his way between the hash marks all alone.  He took a feed from Wennberg, faked Holtby to the ice, and snapped the puck in at the 7:56 mark.

Jaosn Chimera tied the game less than four minutes later on another Caps power play.  He set himself up at the top of the crease, getting and holding inside position on Jack Johnson as the Caps were working the puck around the perimeter.  Finally, Evgeny Kuznetsov fired the puck toward the net, and Chimera redirected it past McElhinney to tie the game at 11:47 of the first period.

The second period went comparatively calmly on the scoreboard, the Caps getting the only tally late in the period.  It was a case of basic hockey done well.  Zach Sill stated the scoring sequence by feeding the puck from his blue line to Chimera, who chipped it deep into the Blue Jackets’ zone.  Chimera followed up on the puck with hard pressure on Justin Falk, who was trying to chase down the biscuit at the end wall.  Falk was pressure by Chimera to throwing the puck back around the wall, where it was picked off by Tom Wilson.  From the corner, Wilson spied Marcus Johansson cutting to the net.  He fed the puck in front, and Johansson steered it past McElhinney to make it 3-2 heading to the last 20 minutes.

Columbus tied the game in the fifth minute of the period on a strange goal.  While on a power play, Ryan Johansen took a cross-ice feed from David Savard, then slid the puck to Jack Johnson just inside the blue line.  As Johnson wound up to fire a slap shot, Brooks Laich went one way, and Nate Schmidt went another out of the path of the shot.  In one sense it might have given Braden Holtby a better look at it, one the other, the shot seemed to explode on Holtby who did not react in time to stop the puck sailing low and through his pads.

Evgeny Kuznetsov restored the Caps’ lead less than a minute later on a delightful give-and-go with Tom Wilson.  Kuznetsov skated through the middle and slid the puck to Wilson as he crossed the blue line.  As Kuznetsov continued his advance to the net, Wilson feathered a delicate pass past the stick of Johnson to him, and Kuznetsov did the rest, faking McElhinney to the ice and sliding the puck past his left pad at 5:27 of the period.

Given the way the season has gone for the Caps to that point, fans might have been forgiven for thinking the Caps would lock things down and get out with a win.  They didn’t lock things down quite tightly enough.  With the clock ticking down to one minute in regulation, and the Blue Jacket net empty, Brandon Saad took a long feed from Jack Johnson, broke in on Holtby, and snapped a backhand past Holtby’s glove to tie the game a 4-4.

The came overtime, which might have been a Twilight Zone episode to be wedged into the marathon showing on cable television this weekend.  Just 55 seconds into the overtime, McElhinney fell awkwardly in his crease without having been touched, bending his knee beneath him at a painful angle.  He could not continue, and it was up to Anton Forsberg to take over in the Columbus goal with the teams skating at 3-on-3.

A little more than a minute after the goalie exchange, the Blue Jackets took a slashing penalty, Brandon Dubinsky to the box.  So, the Blue Jackets were down to their number three goalie (Sergei Bobrovsky still out with an injury), the Caps – the second-best power play in the league – were on a 4-on-3 power play, and a player averaging almost two minutes of penalty killing ice time per game was in the box.  This would be a slam dunk, right?

It was at that Point that Anton Forsberg turned into Georges Vezina, Ken Dryden, and Patrick Roy, all rolled into a Blue Jacket goalie sized jersey.  The Caps recorded eight shot attempts on the power play, six of them on goal.  None of them crossed the goal line.  Columbus escaped disaster and even ended up with a power play of their own to close out the last half minute of regulation, but the teams would go to the Gimmick.

In the freestyle phase of the competition, T.J. Oshie undressed Forsberg in the opening round, the goalie biting on the backhand fake like it was a dog being offered a soup bone by his owner.  Oshie ended up with nothing but an open net in which to slide the puck, and again it looked like it would be a slam dunk for the Caps. 

The only thing that got slammed was the door, though, as Forsberg held firm against Evgeny Kuznetsov and Nicklas Backstrom, giving Columbus the chance to recover and get goals from Dubinsky and Johansson to upset the Caps, 5-4.

Other stuff…

-- About that first Jack Johnson goal.  The play started with the Caps shorthanded and the faceoff in their own end.  Nicklas Backstrom, who has been struggling a bit on faceoffs lately, took the draw and lost it cleanly to Ryan Johansen, setting in motion the events that led to the goal eight seconds later.  If he was healthy, does Jay Beagle – a 58.4 percent performer in the circle – take that draw? Then there was the second Columbus goal.  Orlov was caught following Scott Hartnell into the corner, and Nate Schmidt was hung up along the wall on the same side, leaving no defensemen to clog the route Brandon Saad took to take a pass and score from in close all alone.

-- Consider these two sets of four numbers – 27:25, 25:40, 28:25, and 32:04; 26:23, 20:24, 22:56, and 25:42.  Those are the ice time logs over the past four games for Matt Niskanen and Karl Alzner, respectively.  Those four games were played without John Carlson, who joined first defensive pair partner Brooks Orpik on the bench with an injury.  Niskanen skated 32:04 in this game, including a whopping 8:02 on the power play in place of Carlson.  Alzner, who gets no appreciable power play time as a rule, led the team in even strength ice time (25:04).   It is little surprise that it was Alzner that Saad snuck behind to break into the Caps zone on the last game-tying goal, and that it was Niskanen who could not quite close the distance to get his stick on Saad’s shot.  Those two are getting too many minutes at the moment.

-- Old diesel engines used to take forever to warm up, and that was what Alex Ovechkin’s game looked like in this one.  He did not record his first shot attempt until the 9:27 mark (blocked by Ryan Murray).  That late entry into the game in the offensive end was the first of what would be ten consecutive shot attempts that would not reach the goaltender (seven blocked, three misses).  He did not get his first shot on goal until the 10:03 mark of the third period.  In that last 10:03 and five minutes of overtime he recorded six shots, one shot blocked, and another five misses.

-- Braden Holtby allowed more than three goals in a game for the first time in almost two months.  The four goals he allowed broke a personal streak of 21 appearances in which he did not allow more than three goals (including one in which he allowed three in 29 minutes against Tampa Bay before he was relieved by Philipp Grubauer).

-- This was the first time this season that the Caps scored three or more goals in a game and lost.  They are 20-0-1 in those games now.

-- This was the first time this season that the Caps lost a game when leading after two periods.  They are still one of one of 11 teams that has not lost a game in regulation when leading after 40 minutes, and they remain tied with the Dallas Stars for the top spot in wins when leading after two periods (19).

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov recorded his fourth two-point game in his last seven contests.  He is 3-4-7 over those games.

-- Marcus Johansson recorded his third multi-point game in his last seven contests, going 3-5-8 over that span.

-- Tom Wilson had his second two-point game in a week.  He is 0-5-5 in his last five games and is now within two assists of tying a career best (13) set last season.  He also broke a four-game streak in which he took penalty minutes.

-- The Caps did just about everything right.  They outshot the Blue Jackets, 33-29. They had more power play chances (six) than Columbus (3).  They got points from eight different players, and the four goals were scored by four different players, so score on for balance.  They were out-Corsi’ed at 5-on-5 (48-42), and they lost the faceoff battle (36-29)…they didn’t get everything right. 

In the end...

The Caps did get enough right that they should have won this game, especially when presented with the advantages of a goalie making his first appearance of the season in the most difficult of moments – replacing an injured goalie in a 3-on-3 overtime.  Add in the power play that the Caps were awarded in the extra session, and this should have ended differently.  That it did not, ending the Caps’ streak of games without consecutive losses this season at 37, might now be cause for some concern.  The Caps can sponge some of that away when they take on the Bruins in Boston on Tuesday, but at the moment the injuries have peeled back the curtain to show a club that still has issues in their fundamental numbers, making it less capable of pulling out wins when the goalie has an off night.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 38: Capitals at Blue Jackets, January 2nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals kick off the 2016 portion of their season on Saturday night when they visit Columbus, Ohio, to face the Blue Jackets.  This will be the second meeting between these Metropolitan Division rivals this season, the Caps winning the first meeting by a 2-1 margin on October 30^th in Washington.

The Caps are looking to start 2016 on a positive note, but just as important, they are looking to start another winning streak.  The Caps had their nine-game winning streak stopped in Carolina on Thursday evening, the Hurricanes giving the Caps their first loss in three weeks, 4-2.

The Blue Jackets, on the other hand, are a struggling hockey club.  Columbus relieved Todd Richards of his head coaching duties on October 21^st after an 0-7-0 start, but the club has not done much better under John Tortorella as Richards’ replacement.  Columbus is 14-15-3 under Tortorella, but their record has been deteriorating over the last five weeks.   In their last 15 games they have three losing streaks of three or more games, and their December was gruesome.  The Blue Jackets finished the month with a 4-7-3 record, and they come into this game as losers in three of their last four games.

Offense has not been altogether bad over the last month.  The Blue Jackets averaged 2.64 goals over 14 games.  Defense and goaltending was another matter.  Columbus gave up an average of 3.29 goals per game in December, causing their overall scoring defense to drop to 28^th in the league (3.13 goals per game). 

Scott Hartnell is one of those rare combinations of coarse sandpaper and fine skill.  He leads team in goals (15), points (28), and total penalty minutes (71).  He had a fine December for the Blue Jackets, leading the team with six goals in 14 games and tying for the team lead in points (12).  With 15 goals on the season he is on a pace to finish with his fifth straight 20-goal season (not including the abbreviated 2012-2013 season).  Hartnell is 13-12-25, plus-7, in 38 career games against Waahington.

Nick Foligno shrugged off a slow start to the 2015-2016 season and put together a very good December.  After beginning the campaign with one goal (on 1-for-62 shooting (1.6 percent)) and nine assists in 25 games, Foligno recorded four goals in December and tied Hartnell for the team lead in points with 12.  He is coming into the contest with the Caps having recorded points in his last five games (1-6-7).  Foligno is 6-11-17, plus-6, in 24 career games against the Caps.

On the blue line, it is a case of youth being served.  David Savard (0-13-13) and Ryan Murray (3-10-13) lead the defensemen in points, although Savard has a minus-13 to go with his 13 points.  They came to their positions from very different starting points, but having taken similar paths.  Murray was the highly thought of prospect who was drafted second overall by the Blue Jackets in the 2012 entry draft.  He spent another year in Canadian juniors, then joined the Blue Jackets in the 2013-2014 season.  Savard, on the other hand, was a fourth-round (94^th overall) pick by Columbus in the 2009 entry draft.  He spent another year in Canadian juniors, then a season in the AHL.  He split time with the Blue Jackets and the AHL in 2011-2012 before sticking with the club for good in 2013-2014.  Savard just turned 25 this season, and Murray turned 22 just before the season started.  Neither has much experience against the Caps, Murray with a pair of assists in five career games, and Savard with a pair of goals in nine career contests against Washington.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  There is an odd coincidence about the Blue Jackets’ performance in December.  They were outscored in goals by a 46-37 margin (not including shootout winners), and they faced 48 shorthanded situations to 39 power plays on special teams. 

2.  Goaltending has been an uneven proposition for Columbus so far this season.  Number one netminder Sergei Bobrovsky has decent numbers (2.52 goals against average, .916 save percentage), but he has not been able to reach the level of performance of his 2012-2013 Vezina Trophy season when he was 21-11-6, 2.00, .932, with four shutouts.  Compounding the problem is that he suffered a groin injury in early December that has kept him out of the lineup for ten games.  He could return against Washington on Saturday.

3.  Only three teams have a worse winning percentage when leading at the first intermission than the Blue Jackets.  Toronto (.600), Arizona (.563), and Carolina (.556) are below Columbus (.643) in the rankings.  Not that it seems to matter much.  Columbus has taken a lead into the first intermission only 14 times in 39 games.

4.  Scoring on the power play has been an issue for the Blue Jackets.  Only Winnipeg (8), Calgary (7), and Philadelphia (7) have fewer power play goals scored on home ice than Columbus (9), and they have the sixth-wort power play percentage on home ice (15.3).

5.  Columbus is not a strong possession team.  The rank 25^th in Corsi-for overall (47.4 percent), 24^th in score-adjusted Corsi (47.2 percent), and 24^th in close score Corsi (47.0).  The numbers were slightly worse in December (47.1/46.9/46.7; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  The Capitals finished December with an 11-2-1 record for the month.  They fell just short of their best December ever (12-2-2 in 1984-1985).

2.  The Caps had an interesting month on special teams.  Their special teams index of 111.9 (power play plus penalty killing percentages) was superb in December.  However, only three times in 14 games were the Caps awarded more power play opportunities than their opponents.  Nine times it was the opponent who enjoyed more power play opportunities.

3.  Penalty killing on the road has been a bright spot for the Caps.  They are tied for the third-best penalty kill in the league (86.2 percent), and only Anaheim (7) and Pittsburgh (7) have allowed fewer power play goals on the road than the Caps.

4.  The Caps have been a dominant third period team this season.  Their plus-17 goal differential in the third period is second overall (Dallas: plus-20).

5.  While the Caps dominated play on the scoreboard, and in wins and losses, they were frankly poor in possession numbers for December.  Their overall, score-adjusted, and close score Corsi percentages of 46.5/48.6/46.9 percent for the month (numbers from war-on-ice.com) suggest either an improvement is in order, or a correction in scoring and win-loss results is coming.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Columbus: Ryan Johansen

When the player who is arguably your most important offensive weapon goes an entire month without a goal, chances are that your team will not fare very well.  Ryan Johansen did not record a goal in December, and yes, the Blue Jackets did not fare well.  Johansen did have seven assists in 13 games in December (three in his last four games), but he was a healthy scratch in a 7-5 loss to the Arizona Coyotes on December 17^th, and he did not record a shot on goal in either of his last two games.  He still has a respectable 25 points in 36 games overall, but he is on a pace to finish with his lowest points per game (0.69) since his sophomore season in 2012-2013, owing to goal production that is on a pace to be roughly half (14) of what he had last season (26 in 82 games).  Johansen is 4-4-8, minus-1, in 11 career games against the Capitals.

Washington: Brooks Laich

Brooks Laich played 82 games in calendar year 2015.  It was not one for the scrapbook.  He finished 5-13-18, minus-7, and shot to a 5.0 percentage (five goals on 100 shots).  It looks a lot like his production over the last four seasons overall (an 82-game average of 9-14-22, minus-6, 3.7 percent).  He is getting the fewest minutes of his career in Washington (10:45 per game).  His assist in the Caps’ 4-2 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes was his first point in 13 games.  He is without a goal since recording the game-winner in a 4-1 win over the Boston Bruins on November 5^th, a streak of 25 games without a goal and counting.  He has good possession numbers, fourth in Corsi-for percentage among forwards appearing in at least ten games for the Caps (52.6), but if the Caps are to get past their injury issues without undue damage to their win-loss record, it seems reasonable that Laich’s performance numbers – goals, assists, and points – will have to improve some as well.  He is 3-5-8, minus-2, in 15 career games against Columbus.

In the end…

The Capitals are 8-0-0 in games following losses this season, outscoring opponents by a 28-12 margin (not including shootout winners) with a power play performing at 25.0 percent in those games, and it is one scenario in which the Caps have enjoyed an advantage in special team opportunities (28 power plays versus 18 shorthanded situations).  It is evidence of avoiding the too-high highs and the too-low lows, of taking care of business on a night to night basis.  That has been a recurring theme, but on the other hand, any loss in the context of the Capitals poor possession numbers over the last six weeks can have one thinking about whether any loss is the start of an alignment of record to underlying numbers.  Better than the Caps correct those underlying numbers than test fate with persistently poor possession numbers.

Capitals 3 – Blue Jackets 2