The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 68: Capitals at Sharks, March 12th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wind up their four-game road trip on Saturday night when they visit San Jose to meet the Sharks.  This game will complete the season series between the two clubs, who have not met since San Jose pummeled the Caps, 5-0 in Game 2 of the season back on October 13^th.  Since then, the clubs have taken very different routes to this meeting.

Washington shook off the loss to San Jose, won five games in a row, and never looked back.  The Sharks on the other hand, stumbled around for a while before finding their footing.  A recently as January 7^th they were a .500 team, dropping to 18-18-2 after a 2-1 loss at home to the Detroit Red Wings.  Since then, however, the Sharks are 19-6-4.

They come into this game on a solid 5-2-0 run in their last seven games, holding opponents to a total of just 13 goals while scoring 20 of their own.  Joe Pavelski has a quarter of the goals scored over that period (five).  It should hardly be surprising.  He might be the most prolific goal scorer no one thinks of as a prolific goal scorer.  Since he recorded his first 30-goal season in 2011-2012 (31), he has as many or more goals (156, tied with Corey Perry) than any NHL player except Alex Ovechkin (215) and Steven Stamkos (186).  He has four 30-goal seasons in his last five, only the abbreviated 2012-2013 season (16 goals in 48 games) not making the cut.  Pavelski is 6-6-12, plus-2, in 12 career games against the Capitals.

Brent Burns leads the Sharks in points over the club’s last seven games (4-5-9), a run that has lifted him into second place in total scoring among defensemen and first in goals (24-36-60).  He is another one of those defensemen who consume huge chunks of minutes (26:11 per game, seventh among defensemen) and who does it in long shifts (56 seconds per shift, second highest in the league among blueliners).   Burns is something of a hybrid as a defenseman in the same fashion as Winnipeg’s Dustin Byfuglien, player who can play (and has played) forward.  He has already posted career highs in goals and points this season, and he has been hard on the Caps, going 4-5-9, even, in 11 career games against Washington.

Goaltender Martin Jones is in his first season with the Sharks after spending two years with the Los Angeles Kings in limited duty.  His 33 wins already ranks him seventh in wins in club history (27 goalies having played for the Sharks), and he has the best save percentage (.918) of any of the 12 San Jose goaltenders to appear in at least 50 games with the club.  In his last 13 appearances, Jones is 9-3-1, 1.83, .935, with one shutout.  He pitched a 31-save shutout in the 5-0 win in Washington on October 13^th, his only career appearance against the Caps.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  San Jose has not built their recent success on special teams.  In posting that 5-2-0 record over their last seven games, their power play is 3-for-19 (15.8 percent), while the penalty kill is just 18-for-22 (81.8 percent).

2.  The Sharks are one of two teams in the league with three players with 60 or more points (Washington is the other).  Joe Thornton (64 points), Joe Pavelski (64), and Brent Burns (60) are the trio.

3.  Only one team in the NHL has more players with 15 or more goals than the six who reached that mark with San Jose.  Those six are: Pavelski (31), Burns (24), Patrick Marleau (19), Joel Ward (17), Tomas Hertl (16), and Thornton (15).  The team with more players with 15 or more goals is Washington (seven).

4.  Scoring first might be the best indicator of who will win this game than any other statistic.  While the Caps lead the league in winning percentage when scoring first (.935/29-2-0), San Jose is third (.824/28-4-2).

5.  San Jose is sixth in the league in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall at home (54.2 percent) and seventh in score-adjusted Corsi-for (52.8 percent).  But their 5-n-5 goal differential is a less impressive plus-8, tied for 12^th in the league (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  The streak has reached 12…one-goal games, that is.  The Caps are 8-3-1 in those games, their overtime loss to Los Angeles in their last game extended what was already an all-time record in consecutive one-goal decisions.  It is perhaps coincidence, but only one team in the post-2004-2005 lockout era has more total one-goal  decisions than the Caps.  Minnesota has 428 such decisions (216-117-95), while the Caps have 423 (210-106-107).

2.  The Caps are tied for having the tenth-highest number of first period goals allowed this season (53, with Columbus and Pittsburgh).

3.  Alex Ovechkin has 129 power play shots on goal this season.  That is more than the combined totals of T.J. Oshie (35), Evgeny Kuznetsov (33), John Carlson (30), and Marcus Johansson (27).

4.  The Caps are 17-1-1 when allowing two or fewer goals in road games so far this season.  Thirteen of those games were one-goal decisions (11-1-1).

5.  The Caps rank 14^th in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall in road games this season (49.2 percent).  They are better in score-adjusted Corsi-for, though, ranking eighth (51.8 percent; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

San Jose: Joel Ward

“The Big Cheese” is having a fine first season with the San Jose Sharks after spending four seasons in Washington.  With 17 goals and 36 points in 65 games (0.26 goals/game, 0.55 points per game) he has improved on the per-game averages he posted in four years with the Caps (0.21/0.44).  But he is in something of a slump at the moment, going without a point in his last eight contests.  However, he does not appear to be a difference maker as a point-producer.  San Jose is just 14-10-4 in games in which he recorded a point this season.  He does not have a point in five career games against the Caps.

Washington: Jason Chimera

When Jason Chimera scored an empty-net goal on February 16^th in a 3-1 win over the Los Angeles Kings, it was Chimera’s third goal in four games, and with 16 goals in 55 games he was on a pace to record a career-best level in goals scored.  Since then, Chimera has one goal in his last dozen games, and he comes into this game without a goal in his last eight games.  It ties his longest streak of the season without a goal, two streaks of which he endured in the 2015 portion of the season.  In this streak, his shooting has dried up.  Chimera has just six shots on goal in this eight-game streak, half of them coming against Pittsburgh on March 1^st.  He does not have a shot on goal in any of his last three games.  Chimera is 6-4-10, minus-6, in 33 career games against the Sharks.

In the end…

Over the course of their history, Horace Greeley’s advice to “go west, young man,” was more a case of “go west, and lose” when it came to trips to California for the Caps.  That was not the case in the two seasons preceding this one, the Caps going 2-0-1 in 2013-2014 and then going 2-1-0 last season on their California trip.  To make it three straight years in winning two out of three, the Caps will have to win in a city that has been especially unkind to them.  While they have won both of their most recent games in San Jose – 3-2 in a shootout two years ago and 5-4 in overtime last season – the Caps have not won a game in regulation time in San Jose since October 1993.  This has been a season in which old records fall, and in this it should be no exception.

Capitals 3 – Sharks 2

Washington Capitals Recap: A ONE-Point Night: Kings 4 - Capitals 3 (OT)

If every game was just a third period, the Washington Capitals could go undefeated.  They spotted the Los Angeles Kings a 3-0 lead before the game was 14 minutes old, then roared back the three third period goals before allowing a Jeff Carter goal in overtime to drop a 4-3 decision to the Kings in Los Angeles.

It started for the Kings less than five minutes into the contest on a power play goal when a shot by Alec Martinez was tipped by the end of the blade of Tanner Pearson’s stick, was redirected by Caps’ defenseman Brooks Orpik’s skate, and then was redirected one more time by the skate of Vincent Lecavalier before sliding past goalie Braden Holtby’s left pad at the 4:52 mark.

The Kings made it 2-0 when Jake Muzzin joined a 2-on-2 rush to give the Kings an advantage in numbers.  He took a feed from Pearson and rifled a shot from the left wing faceoff circle that beat Holtby over his glove with 12:05 gone in the period.

Milan Lucic completed the first period barrage for the Kings when he finished what was a 3-on-1 break.  Skating to the net, he and a pass from Jeff Carter arrived at the same time at the post to the right of Holtby, and Lucic redirected the puck behind a sprawled Holtby to make it 3-0 just 13:26 into the game.

Things quieted down from there, the game remaining 3-0 into the third period.  Then the Caps started their comeback.  With Dwight King off on a holding penalty to give the Caps their only power play of the contest, Matt Niskanen took a pass from Nicklas Backstrom and threw the puck at the net.  The shot was muffled in front of goalie Jonathan Quick, but the Caps quickly converged.  T.J. Oshie tried to whack it in out of mid-air.  Marcus Johansson got several swipes at it from the post to Quick’s left.  The puck slid back out to Oshie, and with Quick down on the ice, he snapped a shot past Drew Doughty trying to hug the post in Quick’s absence to make it 3-1 just 1:46 into the period.

Backstrom got the Caps within a goal mid-way through the period.  He started the play, circling out through the right wing faceoff circle and sending a pass to Oshie at the top of the circle.  Oshie faked a shot and sent the puck to Alex Ovechkin cutting in low across the top of the crease.  Ovechkin’s backhand was foiled, but he managed to pull Quick out of position.  The puck found its way back to Backstrom on the opposite side, and he flipped the puck past Rob Scuderi, trying to defend the goal with Quick sprawled on the other side of the crease.  Suddenly, the Caps were within a goal with 8:58 still to play in regulation.

Dmitry Orlov brought the Caps all the way back, putting an exclamation point on a highlight-worthy play.  It started with Evgeny Kuznetsov circling into the Kings’ zone and dropping the puck for Justin Williams, who offered the puck to Orlov entering the zone.  Orlov stepped around Trevor Lewis, eluded Dwight King’s stick, and with two Kings converging on him as he approached the net sent a backhand against the grain and over Quick’s blocker to tie the game with just 3:22 left in regulation.

That earned the Caps a standings point, but the Kings denied them the second point in overtime.  Drew Doughty led the Kings into a 3-on-2 break mid-way through the extra period, sending a pass from the red line up to Milan Lucic closing on the Caps’ blue line.  Lucic skated in, then passed the puck across to Jeff Carter heading down the right side.  Carter snapped the puck up and over a diving Holtby to clinch the Kings’ win 2:50 into overtime, 4-3.

Other stuff…

-- The three first period goals allowed by the Caps now makes 53 first period goals allowed this year, pushing Washington into the top-ten (or “bottom” ten, depending on your point of view) in first period goals allowed.  They are now a minus-5 in first period goal differential.

-- Mike Weber…four blocked shots, three hits, and a fight in just under 13 minutes of ice time.   Ouch.

-- Alex Ovechkin had now gone four games without a goal (he did have an assist).  It ties his longest goal-scoring drought of the season, recorded once in October and once in November.

-- Tom Wilson was the other Capital involved in fisticuffs on the evening, but that was not the news in his line of the score sheet.  The 3:05 in shorthanded ice time was.  He and Mike Richards (3:08) logged more than three minutes killing penalties among the forwards.

-- Dmitry Orlov had the highlight game-tying goal, but he also had seven hits to lead the Caps a tie Dustin Brown for most among players on both teams.

-- Nicklas Backstrom’s goal was his first in five weeks (or 19 games, depending on how you measure these things).  He has been shooting more of late, this being the third straight game in which he recorded three shots on goal.

-- Speaking of Backstrom, there is one thing about being steady and consistent, and he is with respect to scoring, but his recent ice time borders on the bizzare.  In six of his last seven games, his ice time has been in a very narrow range, from 18:17 to 18:53.  Even allowing for the fact that power play chances differ in number from game to game, that is unusual.

-- The four goal-scorers for the Kings – Vincent Lecavalier, Jake Muzzin, Milan Lucic, and Jeff Carter – came into the game with barely as many combined goals (45) as Alex Ovechkin had (41).  Secondary scoring (although Carter and Lucic are third and fourth on the club in goal scoring, respectively).

-- One cannot really fault Braden Holtby for that three-cushion bank-shot power play goal by Lecavalier’s skate, or perhaps Lucic’s tap in from the doorstep.  But one has the feeling that "December Holtby" would have had the Muzzin goal and perhaps even the Carter goal (although that would have been a highlight save).

-- Los Angeles came into the game as the league’s top possession team, and nothing in the first period suggested they were a fluke.  At fives, they out-attempted the Caps, 18-10, and they had 10 scoring chances to six for the Caps.  Small wonder they were up, 3-0, at the first intermission. The Caps, as has been their pattern recently, tilted the ice in the other direction in the second period, out-attempting the Kings, 18-14, and edging them in scoring chances, 13-11.  The dominated the third period, out-attempting the Kings, 24-8, and tripling up on the scoring chances, 12-4.  The Caps were credited with seven high-danger scoring chances in the third period to none for Los Angeles (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

In the end…

Slow start, get their skates under them, close with a rush…rinse, repeat.  It has been a recurring theme for the Caps lately, and it is one that they followed to earn a standings point on the road against the best possession team in the league.  It does say something positive about the Caps.  However, one can’t help but wonder if this is a team playing with a book of matches while sitting in a puddle of gasoline.  Not that it will matter in the regular season, where it would take an asteroid impact to keep the Caps from finishing at the top of the league standings.  But the postseason?  That’s not the place to test the proposition that falling behind and mounting a furious comeback is a recipe for success on a night-to-night basis.  For now, let’s just think of it as part of those late-winter blahs.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 67: Capitals at Kings, March 9th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals have won two straight games in extra time and will look to make it three wins in a row – in 60 minutes, if possible, but more if needed – when they head to Los Angeles to take on the Kings on Wednesday night.

For the trepidation express in some corners of Capitals Nation over whether or not the team is playing well or relying too much on winning one-goal decisions, the fact is that since they dropped a 5-2 decision to the Florida Panthers to open the month of February, the Caps are 14-4-0.  If you do not want to do the math, that translates to a 128-point pace per 82 games, one point better than their pace over the season as a whole (127-points on an 82-game basis).

Meanwhile, the Kings are back in the conversation as to which teams might be serious contenders for a Stanley Cup finals berth, although they have stumbled a bit of late.  After putting together a four-game winning streak as February was winding down, the Kings have alternated losses and wins over their last four games.  They have outscored opponents by a 12-10 margin.

Anze Kopitar brings a four-game points streak into Wednesday night’s game (2-4-6, plus-4).  He has been hot pretty much since Christmas.  He is 11-27-38, plus-16 in his last 31 games.  He is also the straw that stirs the drink for the Kings.  In 41 games in which he scored a point, the Kings are 27-12-2; they are 12-10-2 in games where he failed to record a point.  The Kings are 13-3-1 in games in which he recorded a goal, 26-19-3 in games in which he did not turn the red light on.  He is also one of the best two-way players in the game.  In addition to his fine offensive statistics, Kopitar is the only King to average more than two minutes a game both on the power play and killing penalties, and his 52.7 percent faceoff winning percentage is 12th in the league (minimum: 1,000 draws).  Kopitar is 8-4-12, plus-4, in 11 career games against the Capitals.

Drew Doughty is one of the true minutes eaters in the league among defensemen. Coming into this season he was one of just four defensemen in the league to have played in at least 75 games and averaged more than 23 minutes of ice time per game in each of six full seasons he has been in the NHL (not counting the abbreviated 2012-2013 season when he averaged more than 26 minutes while playing in all 48 games).  Dan Girardi, Brent Seabrook, and Shea Weber are the others.  He is on his way to doing it again, having appeared in all 65 games for the Kings so far this season and averaging a career high 28:23 a game in ice time.

Over the last three seasons preceding this one, Jonathan Quick had a combined goals against average of 2.23 and a save percentage of 2.23.  Those are good numbers, and it is part of a fairly exclusive club.  Among goalies appearing in at least 100 games over those three seasons, seven had combined goals against averages of less than 2.30 and save percentages over .910.  It is a group that includes Carey Price (2.24/.925), Tuukka Rask (2.14/.926), Henrik Lundqvist (2.24/.923), Corey Crawford (2.20/.922, Cory Schneider (2.14/.924), and Brian Elliott (2.18/.916).  

But Quick is not judged by his regular season numbers any more.  He might never be a Vezina Trophy winner, but he does have two Stanley Cup rings.  In the post-2004-2005 lockout era, six goalies have appeared in 25 playoff games, have a goals against average less than 2.25, a save percentage of over .920, and at least five shutouts.  Quick joins Lundqvist, Rask, Crawford, Tim Thomas, and Chris Osgood on that list (note: Washington’s Braden Holtby would be on that list bur for the fact he has only two shutouts in 34 games).   In his last ten appearances he is 6-3-1, 1.91, .930.  Quick is 5-2-0, 2.38, .918 in seven career appearances against the Caps.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Both of the Kings’s losses over their last four games were at the hands of the Anaheim Ducks, who the Caps defeated on Monday night.

2.  The Kings’ power play seems to run hot and cols.  They started February going 7-for-12 in their first three games (58.3 percent), then went just 4-for-32 (12.5 percent) over their next 11 games.  They appear to be hot once more, going 3-for-8 in their last two contests.

3.  Los Angeles has the third-highest total of games in which they allowed 25 or fewer shots on goal, but their 15-11-1 record in such games is hardly impressive.  They are 24-11-3 in games in which they allow more than 25 shots.  Sometimes, more really is better.

4.  Scoring first might not have the meaning in this game it usually has in an NHL game.  The Caps are first in the league in winning percentage when allowing the game’s first goal (20-11-4/.571), but the Kings are second (15-15-2/.469).

5.  The Kings are the top possession team in the league, no matter how you slice it… Corsi-for overall at 5-on-5 (56.3 percent/1^st), score-adjusted Corsi-for (56.7/1^st), leading in games (51.5/1^st), trailing in games 61.6/2^nd), Corsi-for/60 minutes overall (62.2/1^st), Corsi-against/60 minutes overall (48.3/1^st; numbers from war-on-ice.com)  

1.  Evgeny Kuznetsov leads the Capitals in total scoring with 67 points.  The last Capitals not named Alex Ovechkin or Nicklas Backstrom to lead the team in total points was Robert Lang, who had 74 points (29 goals, 45 assists) in 63 games in the 2003-2004 season before he was traded to the Detroit Red Wings.

2.  Alex Ovechkin is the only player still with the Caps who played in the last game the Caps won in Los Angeles.  He recorded an assist on the game-winning goal by Jamie Heward in the Caps’ 3-2 win on December 14, 2005.

3.  The Capitals are the only team in the league with six players with 60 or more points – Kuznetsov (67), Backstrom (61), and Ovechkin (60).

4.  The Caps lead the league in both 5-on-5 goals scored (139) and goals scored at 5-on-4 (45).

5.  Washington has been at 50 percent or lower in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 in five of their last six road games, going 47.3 percent overall in those six games (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

 

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Los Angeles: Vincent Lecavalier

For 14 seasons, Vincent Lecavalier tormented Capitals Nation as a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning, scoring 34 goals in 77 games against Washington.  Then he went to Philadelphia and added a goal in three games with the Flyers.  However, in last season and this he came up empty against the Caps in five games with Philadelphia.  He gets to renew acquaintances with the Caps on Wednesday night in the autumn of his career.  At 35 years of age and his most productive years well behind him, he has found a measure of renewal in Southern California.  In 26 games he has six goals, a modest number, but it is just two short of the eight goals he posted in 57 games with the Flyers last season. And, he is getting more ice time – 14:01 a game, more than four minutes more than he was averaging with the Flyers this season (9:28).  I(n 85 career games against the Caps, Lecavalier is 35-36-71, minus-9).

Washington: Tom Wilson

Players learning the game might have consistency in production become the last element to add to their game.  Despite the fact that Tom Wilson has established career highs in goals (six), assists (14), and points (20) in 66 games, consistency is that thing he is still working into his game.  Sometimes that is hard to do as a third-liner who does not get any meaningful power play minutes, but Wilson has gone four games without a point and is 1-1-2 in his last 13 games.  He has shown restraint, not letting the mini-slump spill over into taking large chunks of penalty minutes.  He does lead the team in that category, but he has just seven minutes in penalties in his last five games, all of them coming in the 2-1 overtime win over Boston on Saturday.  Wilson does not have a point in five career games against Los Angeles.

In the end…

They say all good things come to an end.  Well, all bad things do, too.  The Caps are 6-2-0 in eight road games since the All-Star game break.  Part of their success has been their power play, which has goals in five of the eight games.  This is yet another in what seems to be a series of games that is being described as “possible Stanley Cup finals preview.”  The common thread in that is that the Washington Capitals are the team always included in the commentary.  There is a reason for that.  They’re pretty good, even on the road, where they have the best winning percentage in the league (23-7-2/.719).  It makes one think they can extend their California winning streak by ending their losing streak in Los Angeles.

Capitals 3 – Kings 2

Washington Capitals Recap: A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 2 - Ducks 1

The Washington Capitals cobbled together an Andre Burakovsky goal, a pair of scores in the shootout, and a 27-save effort from Braden Holtby to end the Anaheim Ducks’ winning streak at 11 games last night in a 2-1 win to kick off the California segment of their four-game road trip.

The Caps found themselves in a hole early when Ryan Getzlaf scored just one minute into the contest. On a delayed penalty to be called on Alex Ovechkin, Getzlaf skated with the puck in the left wing facoff circle and fired a slap-pass to David Perron at the goal line to the right of Holtby. Perron returned the puck to Getzlaf, who fired a long range shot through a screen and past Holtby to open the scoring.

That would be all the scoring for the next 39 minutes of game time. Then, in the first minute of the third period, Andre Burakovsky picked up a loose puck in the neutral zone and skated down the middle toward the Ducks’ end. As he reached the blue line he slid the puck off to his left to Evgeny Kuznetsov. From the left wing circle, Kuznetsov had two options. He could have passes to Justin Williams heading to the net, but Williams was covered by Simon Despres. Kuznetsov chose Burakovsky filling in behind Williams, and Burakovsky one-timed the puck past goalie John Gibson to tie the game 41 seconds into the period.

That would be all for the scoring in the hockey portion of the game, leaving the matter of the second standings point to the freestyle competition. T.J. Oshie scored in the first round, and Corey Perry tied it for the Ducks in the third round. Then, Nicklas Backstrom won it in the bottom of the third round when he skated slowly in, got Gibson leaning to his right, then shot across his body and past Gibson’s glove for the game-winner and a good start in the Golden State.

Other stuff…

-- That makes 11 one-goal decisions in a row for the Caps, over which they are 8-3-0.

-- For the first time since January 14th in a 4-1 win over Vancouver, Braden Holtby allowed fewer than two goals in a game. Over 18 appearances until last night, he was 12-4-1 (on no-decision), 2.96, .899.

--The teams combined for a credited 76 hits. The Caps had 33, led by Mike Weber with eight.  Weber also had five blocked shots, tied for the team lead with (who else) Karl Alzner, thus earning Weber the Ben-Gay “Ooh, that’s gonna leave a mark” award for the game.

-- Andre Burakovsky broke a six-game streak without a goal when he scored early in the third period. It would be a good thing if this was a signal he was breaking out of a bit of a slump.  He has two goals in his last 11 games.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov’s assist on Burakovsky’s goal allowed him to avoid a third consecutive game without a point.  He has not gone three games without a point since December 14-18.

-- Justin Williams had five shots on goal, tying a season high for him.  He has hit that mark in six games.

-- Some nights, you get the bear, other nights the bear…whatever.  Alex Ovechkin… minor for slashing, a delayed penalty for tripping that led to the Anaheim goal, minus-1, no points on five shots on goal, only one shot on goal at even strength…he’s had better days.

-- The Caps held Anaheim to one shot on goal on four power plays covering 6:16 in power play ice time.  Not bad.

-- The Caps had seven shots on goal on four power plays covering 6:16 in power play ice time.  Not “bad”…but not good, either.  Ovechkin had four of those shots on goal.

-- Shot attempts at 5-on-5 were an issue, but in a different way for the Caps than has been the case in recent games.  They had 12 shot attempts in the first period to nine for the Ducks.  In the second period, the Ducks roared back with a 20-12 edge, then almost duplicated that edge in the third period, 20-13.  The teams split 40 scoring chances down the middle, though, and the Caps had the advantage in high-danger scoring chances, 12-5 (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

In the end…

John Gibson deserved the game’s number one star for his effort in goal for Anaheim.  He had the harder time of it, making several top-notch saves to keep the Ducks in front as long as they were, and keeping them tied so they could earn a standings point.  In the Caps’ favor, they played a solid road game to win their sixth straight game in Anaheim.  Washington has not lost in Orange County since dropping a 3-0 decision in December 2002.

The terrain gets less hospitable for the Caps as they head into Los Angeles to meet the Kings, where they have dropped five straight games, winning there most recently in December 2005.  The Caps will have to do a better job of finishing what chances they will get against the Kings.  They are not likely to see many against the league’s top possession team.  Still, this was the sort of start to the California trip Caps fans like to see.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 66: Capitals at Ducks, March 7th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals head west for a three-game trip through California this week, starting with a contest against the Anaheim Ducks on Monday night. 

Washington has the best record in the league over the season so far, but their record does not compare to that of the Ducks over the last two months.  No team’s record does.  As late as January 10^th, the Ducks were 17-17-7, fourth in the Pacific Division, and 11^th in the Western Conference.  Since then they are 20-2-1, first in the Pacific Division, fourth in the Western Conference, and they are on an 11-game winning streak coming into this game.

It has not been a fluke for the Ducks.  Of their last 20 wins, 13 were by multi-goal margins, and seven of them were by three or more goals.  They have been an overwhelming force at one end, averaging 3.70 goals per game in their 20-2-1 run, and an impenetrable wall on the other, allowing just 2.13 goals per game on defense. 

Ryan Getzlaf has been at the forefront of the Ducks’ charge over the last two months.  Over a 22 game span from January 8^th through February 28^th, he had points in 20 games, going 6-22-28, plus-15.  Getzlaf has not had a “minus” game since January 23^rd, a string of 17 straight games.  His personal performance has been a good barometer with respect to how the Ducks are doing, the club having a 26-6-2 record when he records a point, 8-1-0 when he records a goal.  Getzlaf is 3-7-10, minus-1, in 10 career games against Washington.

The Ducks might not have a squad of defensemen that are household names, but it is a solid group led in scoring by Sami Vatanen.  With nine goals so far this season he is closing in on a career best (12 goals, set last season), and his 37 points ties a career high set last season.  Vatanen has not gone consecutive games without a point in more than a month (February 2^nd and 4^th), going 3-11-14 in his last 15 games.  He does not have a point in either of his two career games against Washington.

Anaheim has been rotating goalies Frederik Andersen and John Gibson through the schedule lately, each goalie getting two games on and two games off over the Ducks’ last ten contests.  If the rotation holds, it will be Gibson getting the call for Anaheim on Monday night.  Now in his third NHL season after being taken in the second round of the 2011 entry draft, he has established career highs in appearances (28) and wins (16).  He has been, if not a hot goalie of late, then he has been one capable of doing what is needed to win.  Over his last nine appearances he is 7-1-0 (one no-decision), 2.47, .907.  Gibson lost his only career decision against the Caps, allowing five goals on 28 shots in a 5-3 loss to Washington on February 15, 2015.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Anaheim’s power play has been a juggernaut.  The Ducks have power play goals in 11 straight games, over which they are 19-for-43 (44.2 percent…no, that is not a typo).  In their 20-2-1 run they are 25-for-85 (29.4 percent).

2.  The Ducks have not lost a game in regulation at home since January 17^th (2-1 to the Detroit Red Wings).  They are won eight in a row on home ice.

3.  Anaheim is 29-1-3 when scoring three or more goals, their only regulation loss in such games coming back on October 27^th to the Dallas Stars (4-3).

4.  Anaheim possesses a certain balance when it comes to scoring.  The Ducks have 17 players with at least 10 points this season (by way of comparison, the Caps – the top scoring offense in the league – have 15 such players).

5.  Anaheim is one of the top possession teams in the league, ranking third overall in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (52.8 percent).  They also rank third in score-adjusted Corsi-for (53.2 percent).   The odd part of that is that their goal differential at 5-on-5 is minus-7 for the season.  They come into this game with numbers that are not indicative of their overall standing, a 40.5 percent Corsi-for over their last three games (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  The Caps have the top scoring offense in the league at 3.22 goals per game, but they have gone eight straight games without scoring more than three goals.

2.  The Caps have a better all-time record against the Ducks on the road (7-6-1) than they do at home (7-7-0).

3.  Only four teams in the league have allowed fewer power play goals on the road than the Caps (18): St. Louis (16), Boston (15), Pittsburgh (15), and the New York Islanders (15).

4.  Most Caps fans know that Alex Ovechkin has 30-goal years in each of his 11 NHL seasons.  What they might not know is only one other player currently with the team has a 30-goal season as a Capital – Nicklas Backstrom (333 goals in 2009-2010).  Evgeny Kuznetsov currently in second place on the club with 20 goals, that number of 30 goal scorers other than Ovechkin since the 2005-2006 season is not likely to change.

5.  The Caps have been under 50 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 in four of their last five road games, going 48.2 percent overall.  They rank 14^th overall in Corsi-for in road games (49.1 percent; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Anaheim: Rickard Rakell

It probably surprises no one that Corey Perry leads the Ducks in goal scoring (28).  It might surprise a fair number of people that Richars Rakell is second on the club with 17 goals.  Coming into this season, Rakell had just nine career goals in 93 career games, all of them coming last season.  What makes it a bit more surprising is that he has done so while averaging a little over 16 minutes of ice time a night, fifth among forwards on the team.  It has not been the product of bursts of goal scoring; Rakell has goals in consecutive games only once this season (January 17^th and 20^th against Los Angeles and Minnesota).  And, Rakell has shown little preference for home or road, scoring nine of his goals at home and eight on the road.  He does not have a point in either of his two career appearances against the Caps.

Washington:  T.J. Oshie

Last week, T.J. Oshie reached the 40-point mark for the fifth time in his eight-year career.  His next goal will give him 20 for the second time in those eight seasons.  What has been a bit of surprise is his assist total.  He has 21 assists in 65 games, his lowest assists-per-game output (0.32) in his career to date and by a relatively significant margin (0.39 assists per game in 2009-2010 with St. Louis).  He did have a three-assist game against the Toronto Maple Leafs last Wednesday, but that is the only game in his last nine games in which he has any assists.  His assists per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (0.99) is not so much greater than that of Tom Wilson (0.90) than one might have thought.  Oshie is 8-7-15, plus-5, in 17 career games against Anaheim.

In the end…

Anaheim head coach Bruce Boudreau just became the fastest coach in NHL history to reach the 400 win mark.  The Washington Capitals are the fastest team to 100 points in franchise history.  What many thought might be the Stanley Cup final matchup when the season started will be featured on Monday night, and with the two teams on a fast track to the postseason in what are historic seasons for both, this might be a preview of such a final after all.  The west coast has not been kind to the Caps over the course of their history, but last year the Caps did go 2-1-0 on their trip through Anaheim, San Jose, and Los Angeles, and they went 2-0-1 on that trip in 2013-2014.  You probably suspect we are thinking along the same lines this season, despite the scalding record the Ducks have posted recently.

Capitals 4 – Ducks 3

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 21

Week 21 was like no other for the Washington Capitals this season.  In the space of seven days the Capitals would play five games, courtesy of their adding a game that was rescheduled when Winter Storm Jonas blew through Washington in late January.  But when it was over, it was like just about every other week this season – a winning week.

Record: 3-2-0

The Capitals played in two separate back-to-back sets of games in Week 21, their 11^th and 12^th such sets this season.  Winning three of the four games in those back-to-backs should not be considered unusual.  Through Week 21, the Caps have a record of 10-2-0 in the first games of those back-to-back sets and a record of 9-3-0 in the back half of those sets.  They swept the first back-to-back set of the week, against the Pittsburgh Penguins and Toronto Maple Leafs, their sixth sweep of the season.  They have yet to be swept in any back-to-back with three more sets of such games yet to play in the regular season.

The Caps also have yet to lose consecutive games in regulation time this season, thanks to their 2-1 overtime win over the Boston Bruins to end the week.  The Caps have gone 78 games since last losing consecutive games in regulations time, dating back to March 11^th and 13^th of last season when they lost decisions to the New York Rangers and Dallas Stars in Games 68 and 69 of the 2014-2015 season.

By the end of Week 21 the Caps had 48 wins and 100 points, the earliest the Caps have ever reached either number.  The hit the 100 point mark in the 2009-2010 season in Game 65 and the 48-win mark in Game 72 of that same season.

Offense:  2.40/game (season: 3.22 /game; rank: 1st)

In a way, it was the Matt Niskanen Show on offense in Week 21.  The defenseman scored the game-winning goals in the Caps’ wins over the Maple Leafs and the Bruins, and his power play drive late in the third period against the Penguins became the game-winning primary assist when T.J. Oshie got a piece of it as it sailed by for the game-winning goal.

The Caps did not have a lot of volume on offense this week, only 12 goals scored in the five games, but they did have balance.  Nine different players had goals for the week.  In addition to Niskanen, Evgeny Kuznetsov and T.J. Oshie had a pair.  There were 14 different players recording points, Oshie (2-3-5) and Nicklas Backstrom (0-5-5) leading the way.

What they lacked was accuracy.  Even though the Caps finished the week with four games with 30 or more shots on goal, they managed just the 12 goals.  With a total of 154 shots on goal for the week, they had only a 7.8 percent shooting percentage.

Defense: 2.20/game (season: 2.29 /game; rank: 3rd)

The Caps did a lot of things right on defense in a week in which they faced three top-ten offenses and four of the top-12 teams in scoring offense.  That the Caps lost two of three games to those top-ten offenses was not a product of leaky defense.  They held all three  of those teams – the Chicago Blackhawks (5^th in scoring offense), New York Rangers (8^th), and Boston Bruins (3^rd) to a total of 80 shots on goal in the three games, and they held the 12^th-ranked Penguins – the top team in the league in shots on goal per game (32.7) – to 30 shots.

Overall, the Caps won the 5-on-5 battle for the week, finishing with a combined Corsi-for of 51.5 percent.  That, however, might not be as good as it looks.  Washington finished under 50 percent in two games (against Toronto and Boston) and split the shot attempts for the game against Chicago.  The game against the Rangers bordered on the bizarre.  After splitting the 5-on-5 shot attempts in the first period (13-13), after which the Rangers led, 2-0, the Caps out-attempted the Rangers at 5-on-5 by a 53-25 margin over the rest of the contest but managed only a pair of goals in dropping a 3-2 decision (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

If anyone had a difficult week for the Caps on the defensive side, it might have been Brooks Orpik, who was on ice for six of the 11 goals against, including both power play goals against.

Goaltending: 2.20 /.915 (season: 2.19 / .924 / 2 shutouts)

It was a good, not great week, and in what is becoming a bit of a concern, the performance was quite different between the Caps’ netminders, and not in a good way.  Braden Holtby had a difficult week.  In three appearances he was 1-2-0, 2.71, .895.  Breaking it down by period did not make it look any better.  He stopped 23 of 27 first period shots in the three game he played (.852 save percentage), and his third periods were largely saved by very low shot volumes (12 saves on 14 shots/.857).  It is part of a longer rut in which he finds himself.  In his last 18 appearances, he has a 12-4-1 record, but his goals against average is 2.96, and his save percentage is .899.

At the other end, Philipp Grubauer had a fine week.  In his two appearances, both of them in the second of back-to-back games, he won both games, stopping 50 of 53 shots (.943 save percentage).  He almost single-handedly kept the Caps in their game against Boston to close the week when he stopped seven shots in a 5-on-3 Bruin power play that lasted 1:49.  In his last 12 appearances, he is 6-3-0, 1.60, .946.

Power Play: 5-for-17 / 29.4 percent (season: 23.8 percent; rank: 2nd)

For the first time in quite some time, the Caps did not finish a week with the league’s top power play (Week 14, in fact).  This was despite the Caps having their most effective power play since Week 15, when they were 4-for-6.  They had power play goals in the first four games of the week, extending their streak of games with at least one power play goals to five, their longest streak of games with power play goals for the season, and their longest since they had a five-game streak last March 1-11.

The Caps were a reasonably efficient team in terms of shots recorded on the power play, finishing the week with 22 shots on goal in 24:02 of power play time 0.92 shots per minute).  On an individual level, Alex Ovechkin led the club in shots on goal, which is not surprising.  His share, however (six of the 22 shots on goal) might not have been as high as his usual output.  And, he did not have a power play shot on goal against either Toronto or the Rangers, nor did he have a power play goal in Week 21.  He has gone five games without a power play goal.

Penalty Killing: 15-for-17 / 88.2 percent (season: 84.5 percent; rank: 4th)

Week 21 was a good week for the Caps.  It was, in fact, the best week the Caps have had this season when facing more than ten shorthanded situations (Week 18: 17-for-20/85.0 percent).  Then again, perhaps it should have been.  The Caps faced two top-ten teams on the power play (Chicago, ranked third at the end of the week, and Boston, ranked ninth), but they faced two bottom-ten teams, too (Toronto, ranked 30^th, and the Rangers, ranked 21^st).  In-between they faced the 17^th-ranked team in the Penguins.

The Caps did a good job of holding down shots over the first four games of the week, allowing only 13 shots in 12 shorthanded situations over 19:28 of ice time (0.67 shots per minute).  The Caps might have saved their best for last, though, when they shutout the Bruins – the number three team in the league on the power play – on nine shots on five power plays, including seven shots on goal on a 5-on-3 power play that lasted 1:49.  That might have been a product of the old adage that your goaltender often has to be your best penalty killer. Philipp Grubauer was that on Saturday against Boston.

Faceoffs: 147-for-275 / 53.5 percent (season: 49.9% / rank: 17th)

It was a good week for the Caps in the faceoff circle.  They surpassed 50 percent in three of the five games, and they were better than 50 percent in the offensive and neutral zones for the week.  The defensive end draws were something of a problem, the Caps failing to do better than 50 percent in any of the five games.

Of the six Caps to take at least ten draws for the week, four of them finished over 50 percent.  Nicklas Backstrom took about a third of the total faceoffs for the week, going 53-for-93 (57.0 percent).  Evgeny Kuznetsov took another 55 draws, winning 32 of them for a 58.2 percent result.  Jay Beagle returned to action, but one of the league’s best faceoff men is being eased back into that role. He took just 15 draws for the week, winning eight (53.3 percent).  With Mike Richards on that fourth line with Beagle (he was 27-for-59 for the week), the Caps have the luxury of two experienced players in that role on that line.

Goals by Period:

Slow starts have been a problem for the Caps for a while now, and it carried over into Week 21.  Washington allowed the first goal of the game three times this past week.  The Caps won two of the games (against Pittsburgh and Boston), but this is a trend that needs to be addressed.  The Caps finished the week with a minus-2 in goals for and against in the first periods of games and are now a minus-1 for the season. 

As they have done all season, the Caps were better in the second and third periods of games, going plus-2 and even, respectively, for the week.  Their plus-27 in the second period is better than the goal differential of 27 other teams (not including credit for shootout goals).  Their plus-32 in the third period is better than the total goal differential of every other team in the league.  That is all very nice, but when the competition is stiffer in the postseason, can the Caps count on their ability to grind teams down in the last 40 minutes as they have done this season?

In the end…

Five games, five one-goal decisions.  Only four teams have played games to more one-goal decisions than the Caps (34), and no team has a better winning percentage in those games (24-6-4/.706).  If you think this a good thing, consider this.  A team’s record in one-goal games might not be a determining factor in postseason success, but only one team since the 2004-2005 lockout has had the best winning percentage in one-goal games and gone on to win the Stanley Cup.  The Carolina Hurricanes of 2005-2006 (28-5-8) was the only team to do it.

There is more to this point.  Two teams that led the league in one-goal game winning percentage over the last ten seasons did not qualify for the postseason, and four other teams lost in the first round of the playoffs.  Teams finishing with the best winning percentage in one-goal games over that span won a total of nine playoff series, the Hurricanes winning four them on their way to the Cup in 2006.

The Caps might be a different case, and that is because they have been such a dominating team, whatever the goal margin.  They are 9-2 in games settled by two goals, second in the league in winning percentage (to Anaheim), and they are tied for first in winning percentage in games settled by three or more goals (with Tampa Bay). 

The Caps had a good week in Week 21, a history-making one for the franchise, in fact.  But that does not obscure the fact that there are some things that bear watching over the next  few weeks.  Their slow starts, dependence on one-goal victory margins, and Braden Holtby’s dip in the road are among them.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Matt Niskanen (2-1-3, even, 2 GWG, 25:07 in average ice time, 13 credited hits, 10 blocked shots)
• Second Star: Philipp Grubauer (2-0-0, 1.47, .943, 15 saves on 15 shots faced on the power play)
• Third Star: T.J. Oshie (2-3-5, minus-1, 2 PPG, 3 PPA, 11 shots on goal)

Washington Capitals Recap: A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 2 - Bruins 1 (OT)

The Washington Capitals looked for all the world like a lost cause in their battle against the Boston Bruins on Saturday night.  But a disallowed Bruins goal, some spectacular goaltending from Philipp Grubauer, and an overtime howitzer from Matt Niskanen, and the Caps escaped Boston with a 2-1 win to kick off their four-game road trip.

The Caps once more got off to a slow start, this time allowing the game’s first goal in the eighth minute of the first period.  It was a case of an inability to get the puck out of their own end and then chasing Bruins.  Kevan Miller started the scoring play when he flagged down an attempted clear just inside the Caps’ blue line.  He turned and sent the puck down to Lee Stempniak, who turned and tried to get the puck on net.  Nicklas Backstrom got a skate on the puck for the Caps, but it turned him around, and he could not locate the biscuit to get the Caps out of danger.  It found its way to the stick of Brad Marchand at the bottom of the left wing circle, where he spun and found Patrice Bergeron in the low slot.  Bergeron had only to snap the puck into the far side of the net past Grubauer’s left pad, and it was 2-1, Boston, 7:11 into the game. 

That would do it for the scoring in the first period, and it looked as if Boston added to their lead with barely three minutes gone in the second period when Torey Krug worked the puck past Grubauer.  But the Caps challenged the play for being offside, and they won the challenge, depriving the Bruins of that second goal. 

Whatever momentum the Caps could derive from the favorable call on the review was gone a little over two minutes later when Alex Ovechkin was sent off on a five-minute major penalty for boarding Miller.  It got worse for the Caps three minutes later when Tom Wilson was sent to the box for an interference penalty, giving the Bruins 1:49 of a 5-on-3 advantage.

The game turned in that 1:49 when Grubauer turned away seven shots on the 5-on-3.  It allowed the Caps to get a little more settled in their game, and they finally broke through 13 minutes into the period.  Karl Alzner started and finished the play.  He started it by hunting down the puck in the corner to the right of goalie Tuukka Rask.  Outdueling Dennis Seidenberg for control, he worked it out to Alex Ovechkin in the left wing faceoff circle. Ovechkin move the puck along to Nicklas Backstrom at the edge of the right wing circle, and with Alzner darting down the goal line to the net, Backstrom slid the puck through Zdeno Chara’s legs to Alzner to redirect it into the net past Rask.

Neither team could find paydirt over the rest of regulation time, making it a victory of sorts for the Caps, who put themselves behind the eight ball all too often in the 60-minute portion of the contest.   Mid-way through the extra frame, Andre Burakovsky skated the puck around the top of the offensive zone, drawing Ryan Spooner with him.  It opened up space for Burakovsky to lay the puck off for Matt Niskanen, who had time to wind up for a blast that beat Rask on his glove side to give the Caps a 2-1 win that seemed so improbable for most of the evening.

Other stuff…

-- The win put the Capitals at the 100-point mark at Game 65.  It is the earliest they ever reached the 100-point mark, the 2009-2010 team having done it in Game 69.

-- The 48^th win of the season ties the Caps with the 1983-1984 and the 2010-2011 teams for fourth-place in all time wins in a season.

-- Matt Niskanen scored the game-winning goal on his only shot on goal of the game.  It was his second game-winning goals in three games, the other (against the Toronto Maple Leafs) also coming on what was his only shot on goal of the game.

-- This was the tenth straight one-goal decision for the Caps, over which their record is 7-3-0. 

-- The win allowed the Caps to avoid consecutive losses in regulation.  They still do not have consecutive losses in regulation time this season.  They have now gone 78 games since the last time they did so, on March 11^th and 13^th last season against the New York Rangers and the Dallas Stars.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov tied a season high with seven shots on goal (versus Edmonton on October 23^rd).  It was one off his career high of eight shots on goal, set last March 16^th against the Buffalo Sabres.

-- Boston had 27 shot attempts in the second period, 20 of them on goal.  Of those totals, 11 shot attempts came on power plays, eight of them shots on goal.

-- Once upon a time, it seemed Tom Wilson was in a fight a week.  Now, it’s one a month.  He had his “March” fight against Adam McQuaid.  He had one in February and one in January.  It was only his fifth fight of the season.

-- This was the fourth time in his last seven games that Philipp Grubauer allowed just one goal in a game he played from start to finish.  He is now fourth in save percentage among goalies appearing in at least 750 minutes (.930 to Robin Lehner’s .931).

-- It was another case of the Caps lagging in possession numbers early an coming on late.  Boston led in 5-on-5 shots attempts in the first period, 18-16, and held a 16-8 edge in the second period.  The Caps had the edge in the third period, 14-8 (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

In the end…

This was one of those games the Caps looked destined to lose, and a lot of it was their own doing in the first two periods.  But Philipp Grubauer was the difference, holding the Bruins off the scoreboard when the game could have slipped away in the second period.  It might have been enough, under the circumstances, to call it a moral victory just getting to extra time, but Matt Niskanen once more showed that he is capable of raining pain on goaltenders with his cannon of a shot from outside.  It made for a good start to the four-game road trip and a happy end to a long week.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 65: Capitals at Bruins, March 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals, having wrapped up their three-game home stand by dropping a 3-2 decision to the New York Rangers on Friday night, head to Boston to take on the Bruins on Saturday evening.

The Bruins are making what looks like a late-season push to solidify their standing as a postseason qualifier.  Boston comes into this game with four wins in their last five games and is just two points shy of the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers for the lead in the Atlantic Division.

The Bruins have outscored their opponents by a 16-9 margin over their last five games, the scoring led by Patrice Bergeron (3-3-6).  It is part of a longer run of scoring on Bergeron’s part; he is 6-5-11, plus-5, in his last ten games and has not had consecutive games without a point in that span.  Bergeron remains one of the premier faceoff men in the game.  He has gone ten straight games with a winning percentage of 50 percent of better, andhe hasn’t gone consecutive games under 50 percent since late November.  Among players taking at least 500 draws, Bergeron ranks ninth in the league in overall winning percentage (56.9 percent).

Torey Krug leads the club with five assists in the Bruins’ last five games.  He is another player with a longer span of recent success with points in seven of his last nine games (0-8-8, plus-7).  In his three full seasons to date he has been a remarkably consistent half-point-a-game defenseman (0.51/game in 2013-2014, 0.50 last season, and 0.50 this season with 32 points in 64 games).  He is 0-1-1, minus-5, in eight career games against Washington.

Conspicuous by his absence in Bruin scoring over the last five games is defenseman Zdeno Chara.  At 38 years of age, the big guy is clearly slowing down, even if he does remain a formidable force in his own end.  On offense, though, he is without a point in his last six games, and he has just a pair of assists in his last ten games.  Chara is 7-19-26, plus-9, in 62 career games against the Caps.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  It has not been with special teams that the Bruins won four of their last five games.  Their power play was 2-for-14 (14.3 percent), and their penalty kill was 9-for-13 (69.2 percent) for a rather dismal 83.5 on the special teams index.

2.  Three goals for seems like a threshold of success for the Bruins (it might be for most teams).  They have only three wins in regulation this season in 26 games when scoring two or fewer goals (6-17-3 overall).  They are 30-3-1 when allowing two or fewer games, so from the Boston point ofview, it might be “first to ‘three’ wins.”

3.  The Bruins have a knack for taking a lead.  They scored the game’s first goal in 40 of their 65 games so far this season. They don’t have such a knack for holding those leads.  Their 28-11-1 record, while certainly a fine one in those instances, is the 17th-ranked winning percentage (.700).

4.  Boston has the most efficient power play on home ice in the league (24.5 percent).  They do not get as many opportunities to exploit that advantage as they or their fans might like. Their 98 power play opportunities at home ranks tied for sixth-fewest in the league.

5.  The Bruins are one of those teams whose 5-on-5 numbers are inconsistent.  They have a Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 overall of just 48.5, 19th in the league.  However, their 5-on-5 goal differential of plus-12 ranks sixth (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  If the Caps win this game, they will become the fourth-winningest team in franchise history, tied with the 2010-2011 and 1983-1984 editions.  Only a trio of 50-or-more-win teams would be ahead.

2.  When Jay Beagle scored last night to make it a 2-1 game, you knew the Caps were going to win or at least get a point out of this game.  The Caps were 22-0-4 in games in which Beagle scored a goal over his career until last night.  Now it’s 22-1-4.

3.  Alex Ovechkin was held to one shot on goal last night, just the third time this season he was held to a single shot on goal in a game (December 3^rd versus Montreal and December 12^th versus Tampa Bay).

4.  If you dominate shot attempts at 5-on-5 by an almost 2-to-1 margin (66-38), have a big edge in scoring chances (31-16), and control the shots on goal (34-23), you are supposed to win more often than not in this league.  The 66 shot attempts against the Rangers last night was the second highest total posted by the Caps this season (68 versus Calgary on November 13^th).  That PDO of 93.9, though, was the 11^th lowest of the season.

5.  Two of the Caps’ three highest Corsi-for results at 5-on-5 in a game this season have come at the expense of the Rangers.  On November 3^rd they were 65.3 percent to the good, and last night they were 63.5 percent.  They lost both games, 3-2 last night and 5-2 in November (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Boston: Ryan Spooner

Folks know the names Zdeno Chara, Brad Marchand, David Krejci, and Patrice Bergeron.  Ryan Spooner might not be as well known to Caps fans.  However, Spooner is second on the club in assists (32) and fifth in overall scoring (44 points).  In this, his first full season with the Bruins, his 12 goals is far clear of his career high of eight set last season, and his 44 points is more than his career total coming into this season (29).  He has been something of a power play specialist for the Bruins, ranking second on the team with 16 power play points, six of them being goals.  In five career games against the Caps, Spooner is 0-1-1, minus-3.

Washington: Philipp Grubauer

If you are trying to identify who might be the best among the league’s backup netminders, here is a little thought exercise.  Among goalies with at least 500 minutes but fewer than 1,200, how many have goals against averages under 2.25 and save percentages over .925?  The answer?  Three.  Jhonas Enroth of the Los Angeles Kings (2.10/.931), Penguins (1.98/.933), Al Montoya of the Florida Panthers (1.96/.928), and Washington’s Philipp Grubauer (2.10/.926).  He has been even better of late.  In his last eight appearances totaling 349 minutes of ice time, his goals against average is 1.72, and his save percentage is .941.  Grubauer has never faced the Bruins.

In the end…

The Caps are a “coin-flip” team at the moment, 3-3-0 in their last six games, each game settled by one goal.  In fact, the last nine games for the Caps have been settled by one goal.  This is not the dominating team of its first 50 or so games.  Perhaps it is a product of it being in that dry patch of games in late winter when teams are either fighting for a playoff spot or fighting through the routine of 60 or more games that can cause focus to wander and intensity to wane.  The Caps, as perhaps one of the latter sort of teams, get a chance to refocus by taking their act to the road for four games, beginning with this game in Boston.  “Road trip” might be just the tonic for a team such as the Caps.

Capitals 3 – Bruins 2