The Peerless Prognosticator Brings You: Eastern Conference Quarterfinal, Capitals vs. Flyers

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well, here we are.  We are Dorothy putting the toe of our ruby slippers on the first stone of the Yellow Brick Road to the Stanley Cup.  We are Captain James Tiberius Kirk going where no one has gone before (yet) this season…the first game of the first round of the 2016 Stanley Cup playoffs.  OK, technically, there will have been games already played by the time the Washington Capitals an Philadelphia Flyers take the ice for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, but before they do, it is time to fill in the last frame of our conference prognostos…

Washington Capitals (56-18-8) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (41-27-14)

When the Philadelphia Flyers defeated the New York Islanders in Brooklyn last Sunday in the season finale, the win gave the Flyers 96 points for the season.  The Washington Capitals hit that points mark on March 1st, when they defeated the Penguins in Game 62 of an 82-game season.  That, in a nutshell, is the difference between these teams as they prepare to meet in the first round of the playoffs on Thursday night.  The Caps ran away from the field, the Flyers had to beat it back with a stick in the last six weeks.

You would think that the Caps, with a 24-standings point edge over the Flyers for the season, would be prohibitive favorites to beat the Flyers.  Well, lets’ hold off on that for a moment.  Why?  Well, because…

The Capitals have been here before

Going into the dim past is of dubious value when considering players whose professional careers extend back only so many years.  But the Caps have had bigger standings points edges over a playoff opponent and lost.  There was 1986, when the Caps went into the Patrick Division final against a New York Rangers team that finished 29 points behind the Caps in the regular season.  The Caps lost in six games.  There was the 2010 squad that finished 33 points ahead of the Montreal Canadiens that lost to the Habs in seven games in the conference quarterfinal.  Don’t say it can’t happen, because it can, and if there is a team to which it can happen, it is the Capitals.  But then again…

Here is why it won’t happen to them

• The Caps can beat you close.  They won 27 of 41 one-goal games, the .659 winning percentage being best in the league.
• They can beat you to a pulp.  They won 18 of 27 decisions by three or more goals, the second-best winning percentage in the league (.667), and they won more than 70 percent of multi-goal decisions (29-12).  
• They can win when out-shooting you, their 33 wins in 50 such games being the best winning percentage in the league (.660).  They can win when being out-shot, with 22 wins in 31 such games also being the best winning percentage in the league (.710).
• They can beat you from ahead, their 34 wins in 38 games when scoring first being the league’s top winning percentage (.895), and they can beat you from behind, the Caps being the only team in the league to win at least half of the games in which they allowed the first goal (22 of 44 instances).
• They can close you out, winning 37 of 38 games this season when taking a lead into the third period, their .974 winning percentage being second best in the league.  They can run you down, winning almost one in three games when trailing after two periods, the best winning percentage in the league.
• They can pound you, their 44-2-5 record when scoring three or more goals being fifth best in the league.  They can grind you, their winning percentage in games in which they scored two or fewer goals being best in the league.
• They can beat you when their power play is humming – 32-4-4 when they score at least one power play goal.  They can outlast you when it isn’t – 24-14-4 when they do not record a power play goal.
• They can kill your power supply, going 35-8-3 when shutting out an opponent’s power play.  They can overcome the instances when they don’t, going 21-10-5 when opponents managed to squeak one or two power play goals through (and only twice this season was it “two”).

There is no team in the league that can beat you in as many ways from as many directions as the Caps.  Shut one part of their game down, another rises up more often than not.

But then again…again...

• The Flyers were 16-6-3 in their last 25 games.  The Caps were 13-8-4 over their last 25 games.
• The Flyers averaged 2.96 goals per game over their last 25 games.  The Caps averaged 2.40 goals over their last 25 games.
• The Flyers averaged 32.7 shots on goal in their last 25 games.  The Caps averaged 30.7 shots on goal in their last 25 games.
• The Flyers were 20.2 percent on their power play over their last 25 games.  The Caps were at 18.6 percent on their power play over their last 25 games.
• The Flyers were 86.9 percent on their penalty kill over their last 25 games.  The Caps were 87.3 percent on their penalty kill over their last 25 games.
• The Flyers have a goal differential of plus-3 at 5-on-5 over their last 25 games.  The Caps have a goal differential of minus-1 at 5-on-5 over their last 25 games.
• The Flyers have a Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall of 52.7 percent over their last 25 games.  The Caps have a Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall of 52.4 percent over their last 25 games (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

Yeah, yeah…but the Caps have…Alex Ovechkin

Since he came into the league, Alex Ovechkin has seven 50-goal seasons.  If you add up all the other 50-goal seasons among players active in 2015-2016, you get a total of eight, and only Steven Stamkos has done it twice.  In terms of total goals, he has a lead of more than 160 goals over his closest pursuer (525 to 361 for Jarome Iginla).  He is a force of nature when it comes to goal scoring.  But to the point at hand, Ovechkin has two goals in four games against the Flyers this season, one goal in each of the two most recent games played between the clubs.  He had a rough patch as the season was winding down, scoring just three goals in 15 games over four weeks ending on March 28th.  But he picked up the pace in a big way in the season’s last two weeks, scoring seven goals in his last six games, including a hat trick in his last game of the season, giving him that seventh 50-goal season.  If this is an indicator of a hot streak, it is coming at the right time.

But the Flyers have…Claude Giroux

Not so long ago, Claude Giroux was touted as the best player in the world.  OK, so it was his coach doing the touting, but the point is that Giroux was once on a very short list of the very best players in hockey.  Since that season in which his coach provided his flattering commentary, one in which he set career highs in goals, assists, and points, Giroux’ performance numbers have fallen off.  Part of that is undoubtedly tied to the general contraction of scoring in the NHL, part of it might be a product of having less talented teammates.  But Giroux’ numbers over the past few years do not argue for his inclusion in the discussion of the league’s (or the world’s) “best” player. 

This is not to say he lacks talent, is in decline, or cannot influence the direction of a game or a playoff series.  He remains a gifted player (he did finish in the top-20 in both assists and points this season).  But if anything, his ten-game segments suggest a bit of a dropping off in his production.  In his fifth segment this season (Games 41-50) he went 4-10-15, plus five.  In the segments that followed he was 1-9-10, minus-5; 4-4-8, plus-3; and he was 1-4-5, minus-2 in his last eight games (he played 78 games this season).  Whether he can improve on this in a seven-game series could say a lot about the Flyers’ chances.

Then there is the season series…

The Caps won two games, the Flyers won two games.  Even-Steven, right?  Well, maybe not.  Here is how the series unfolded:

The Caps won two games in regulation, with teams playing 5-on-5 and with the normal deployment on power plays.  On the other hand, the Flyers won one game at 3-on-3 and another in a Gimmick, neither of which we will see in the postseason (unless things go haywire and there are a lot of players in the penalty boxes to create a 3-on-3 situation). 

Drill down, and it does not get better for the Flyers.  The Caps won the 5-on-5 possession battle in all four games and posted a Corsi-for of 52.4 percent over the series.  The goal scoring tracked with this as well, the Caps winning three of the four games in goal differential at 5-on-5 and tying the Flyers in the other, winning overall by a 9-5 margin (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

But aren’t you leaving the most important players out?

Oh, the goalies.  The Caps have this theme that permeates their entire playoff history – the “hot goalie.”  Just about any series you look at back through time, you could say the “hot goalie” did them in, whether it was Kelly Hrudey saving eight thousand shots in a four-overtime game on Easter Morning way back when, or Jaroslav Halak channeling his inner Patrick Roy over a three-game stretch a few years back to send the Caps packing, there has always been the “hot goalie.”

Well, what about that?  Is Steve Mason that “hot goalie?”  If you’re trying to prognosticate an answer to this question, it depends on what you look at.  If you look at his last 17 appearances of the regular season, over which he was 10-4-3, 2.14, .924, with one shutout, you might say he could be that “hot goalie.”  Then again, there is the fact that in his last four appearances he was 1-2-1, 2.98, .889.

Then again, there are the shots.  Oh, the shots.  It seems that “30” is a magic number.  When Mason faced fewer than 30 shots in a game this season he was 12-4-4, 2.18, .906, with three shutouts in 22 such games.  In the 32 games in which he faced more than 30 shots, he was 11-15-6, 2.72, .922, with one shutout.  He saved a higher percentage of shots, but he lost quite a bit more often.

And there is the season series.  In it, Mason faced the Capitals three times.  He was all over the place, but (ominously for the Caps) he did get better with time.  He stopped 27 of 32 shots in a 5-2 loss on November 12th.  He followed that up with a 27-save performance on 30 shots in a 3-2 loss on February 7th.  In his most recent appearance, he stopped 29 of 30 shots in a 2-1 Gimmick win on March 30th.  Overall, he was 1-2-0, 2.94, .902 in the three games.

Braden Holtby’s profile is considerably different.  Holtby’s season overall has a much broader sweep to it.  He started slowly in terms of personal efficiency, his save percentage over his first ten games a decent, but not extraordinary .916.  He enjoyed low shot volumes (24.9 per game) that kept his goals against average at a very good 2.12.  The save percentage jumped spectacularly over his next two ten-game segments (.937, .947), and his GAA plummeted (1.79, 1.66). 

It was at that point that he hit his rough patch of the season, posting a 2.73 goals against average and a .910 save percentage in his fourth ten-game segment, and then a 2.83 GAA and a .903 save percentage in his fifth ten-game segment.  He recovered nicely from there, going 2.21/.915 in his sixth segment, then going 2.11/.917 in his last six games.

If there is a shot threshold for Holtby, it certainly is an odd one.  Holtby was 38-5-7, 2.14, .928, with two shutouts in 50 games in which he faced more than 20 shots.  In 16 games in which he faced 20 or fewer shots he was 10-4-0, 2.43, .894, with one shutout.  Even if you remove the games in which he was relieved by Philipp Grubauer, his save percentage was only .909 over 12 full games facing 20 or fewer shots.  Whether that is a product of low-chance shots not getting through or the goaltender losing focus, or sunspots in low shot volume games, Holtby does not suffer when the workload is heavy.

Holtby played every minute of the season series against the Flyers, going 2-0-2, 2.21, .926 over the four games.  And, like Mason, his performance improved with time.  In his first game, back on November 12th, he stopped 18 of 20 shots in a 5-2 win.  He stopped 28 of 32 shots in a 4-3 overtime loss in January, but his last two performances – a 33-save effort in a 3-2 win in February and a 33-save performance in a 2-1 Gimmick loss in late March – were superb.

Is there an “X-Factor” for either team?

For the Flyers, the obvious candidate here is defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere.  Despite the fact that he finished 11th in games played among rookie defensemen (64), “Ghost” finished first among that cohort by a wide margin in goals (17, to nine for St. Louis Colton Parayko), assists (29, to 24 for Parayko and Vancouver’s Ben Hutton), points (46, to 22 for Parayko), power play goals (eight, to three for Parayko), power play points (22, to seven for Parayko, Hutton, and Carolina’s Noah Hanafin), and overtime goals (the only four OT goals scored by a rookie defenseman this season).

The question about Gostisbehere is, after 64 games of action averaging more than 20 minutes a game for a defenseman of slight stature, if he is slowing down from the grind.  Consider that he had a 13-game streak without a goal before he potted a power play goal against the New York Islanders in the season finale last Sunday.  He does have six assists in those same final 14 games, so he is continuing to contribute.  On the other hand, he was a minus-9 over 11 games before going plus-5 in his last three contests.  If, however, he is getting a second wind, he could present problems for the Capitals.  Gostisbehere was 0-3-3, even, in three games against the Caps this season.

For the Capitals, it might be a guy who appeared in only two games in the season series.  Jay Beagle missed 25 games this season, including the middle two games of the season series between these two teams.  But in those two games Beagle won 22 of 33 faceoffs (66.7 percent).  Faceoffs are generally considered one of those mundane tasks that do not have much of an effect on games…until you lose a critical one.  Like the one the Caps lost that led directly to the game-winning, series-clinching overtime goal in last year’s playoff series against the New York Rangers.  Beagle and Mike Richards led Caps forwards still with the team in shorthanded ice time.  Beagle taking draws in his own end on the Flyer power play is a responsibility that should not be held as insignificant in this series.

In the end…

The Flyers went 15-5-3 in their last 23 games for 33 standings points.  On the other hand, the Caps had 60 23-game windows for the season, if you look at them on a rolling basis.  Of those 60 rolling windows, 11 of them failed to reach the 33-point mark, nine of them coming at the end of the season when the Caps had clinched their position in the standings. 

It is in that sense that we look at the Flyers’ end-of-year performance as a “ceiling” and that of the Caps as a “floor.”  It leaves us thinking that any argument making the Flyers a favorite in this series is misguided.  The Caps have advantages of depth of skill, goaltending, and they performed better overall in head-to-head matchups with the Flyers at even strength.  Even with their late-season swoon, the Caps underlying numbers appear to be improving.  The Flyers can make a series of this, perhaps only if they make it a mud-wrestling contest in which they can goad the Caps into taking more penalties (they had 17 power plays to 10 for the Caps in the regular season).  Still, actually winning it is a hill too high to climb for the Flyers.

Capitals in 6

Photo: Nick Wass/Associated Press 

The Peerless Prognosticator Brings You... The NHL Eastern Conference Quarterfinal Prognostos

The Peerless is not just paying attention to the I-95 first-round playoff series between the Washington Capitals and the Philadelphia Flyers (about which we will have some things to say in a later piece).  We are concerned with teams that the Caps might play down the road.  And with that, we take a peek at the other Eastern Conference series that start this week.  On to the prognostos…

Pittsburgh Penguins (48-26-8) vs. New York Rangers (46-27-9)

Penguins: The Penguins are the “it” team of these playoffs, the choice of the hockey punditocracy to emerge from the Eastern Conference for the Stanley Cup final.  They might have a point.  The Pens finished the regular season with a 14-2-0 record, outscoring their opponents by a 43-26 margin at 5-on-5 and posting a Corsi-for at fives of 55.3 percent.  The only thing that would seem to be an obstacle is their goaltending situation, made uncertain with a concussion suffered by Marc-Andre Fleury that kept him out of the last five regular season games and a suspected concussion sustained by Matt Murray in a collision with Philadelphia’s Brayden Schenn in the first period of the regular season finale last Saturday.  The Pens would like to get forward Evgeni Malkin and defenseman Olli Maatta back from injuries, but frankly, their absences have not been keenly felt, and that should put an extra layer of concern on potential rivals when they do return.

Wild Card Player:  Patric Hornqvist

Sidney Crosby and Kris Letang have been playing at a high level for weeks now, and it would be reasonable to expect they will continue their high level of play. And it would be tempting to think of Phil Kessel as that next level of player to watch.  But we will go down another level and think of Patric Hornqvist.  The eight-year veteran is one of the most reliable producers most folks don’t think of.  He finished the season with 22 goals, making him six-for-six in full NHL seasons with 20 or more goals (not counting his 28-game rookie season in Nashville or the abbreviated 2012-2013 season).  He was streaky over the latter stages of the season, though, recording one goal in 13 games before a four-game goal streak and ending without a goal in his last two games.  If he is a more reliable, more consistent contributor that he was closing the season, the Pens will be a load for any opponent.

Rangers: The Blueshirts limped to the finish, going 9-7-3 since the beginning of March.  That they did as well as that is something of a surprise given the state of their possession numbers – awful.  Not an especially efficient team in the shot attempt statistics over the course of the season, they were in a bad place over those last 19 games, posting a Corsi-for at 5-on-5 of 46.3 percent (numbers from war-on-ice.com).  That their goal differential at fives was not worse (minus-2) is more a testament to their goaltending than their ability to drive play.  That means that once more, this is a team that is going to go only so far as goalie Henrik Lundqvist can carry them.  And whatever Lundqvist’s numbers are in the regular season – 21st in GAA (2.48), 13th in save percentage (.920) among goalies with 2,000 or more minutes played – he is a big time postseason goalie. Over the last five postseasons he is one of only two goaltenders to appear in at least 20 games, post a goals against average under 2.25 (2.06), a save percentage of at least .925 (.929), and record more than five shutouts (6).  Los Angeles’ Jonathan Quick is the other.

Wild Card Player: Kevin Hayes

Kevin Hayes was something of a revelation in his 2014-2015 rookie season.  He finished sixth among NHL rookies in goals (17) and fifth in points (45).  But he fell victim to the dreaded “sophomore slump” in 2015-2016.  He fell to 14 goals and 36 points, and his effort was questioned by his head coach, leading to a benching during the season.  He closed the season fairly well with a pair of goals and a pair of assists in his last six games.  However, if the Rangers are to be more than simply Henrik Lundqvist, Hayes is going to have to play his role as a secondary scorer.

In the end… 

Both teams come into this series banged up.  The Pens have Evgeni Malkin, Olli Maatta, and two goaltenders nursing injuries.  They could start the series with Jeff Zatkoff in goal and Tristan Jarry on the bench.  The Rangers have Eric Staal, Ryan McDonagh, Dan Girardi, and Mats Zuccarello dinged up.  New York will not win a track meet with the Penguins.  They lack the possession discipline and the depth of skill to do that over seven games.  Unless Henrik Lundqvist plays the series of his life, it is hard to reason a way through to a Ranger win, unless Fleury and Murray are unable to tend goal for four or more games of this series.  Lundqvist might steal one, but more than that is a lot to ask for.

Pittsburgh in 5

*****

Florida Panthers (47-26-9) vs. New York Islanders (45-27-10)

Panthers: The Panthers came into the 2015-2016 season as the oldest team in the league.  Small wonder, considering that of all the players lacing up their skates for the postseason, Jaromir Jagr will be the oldest skater, at 44 years of age, by more than four years (the Rangers’ Dan Boyle is next in line).  And there is 37-year old Roberto Luongo, who will be the oldest starting goalie in the postseason, almost three years older than Henrik Lundqvist.  Don’t leave out defenseman Willie Mitchell, either, who will be the fourth-oldest defenseman to take the ice in the postseason (he will turn 39 before the end of this month).  Not that it seemed to slow down the Panthers in the home stretch.  They went 7-2-0 in their last nine games, but that might not be quite as impressive as it looks.  Both losses came to teams out of the playoff mix (Toronto and Ottawa, both by multi-goal margins), and their last five wins came against also-rans.

Wild Card Player: Nick Bjugstad

Nick Bjugstad missed 15 games at mid-season to an upper-body injury.  He still managed 15 goals (seventh on the club) and 34 points (eighth), although on a per-game basis, his goal scoring was below his performance in 2014-2015 (24 goals in 72 games).  Since March 7th, Bjugstad is 5-7-12 in 17 games, a respectable level of scoring for a player getting about 15 minutes a game.  But where his presence might be felt most is on the Panther power play, on which he finished the season second in goals (6) and points (15).  He will have to raise his game at evens to give the Panthers a good chance to advance.

Islanders: For a while there, it looked as if the Islanders were going to play themselves out of the postseason.  From March 9th through the 25th they lost seven of nine games (2-6-1), and they were just two points ahead of Philadelphia for the last playoff spot.  They turned things around by going 6-2-1 in their last nine games to secure the first wild card spot.  But this is a team that has major health issues at the most important position in the postseason.  Goalies Jaroslav Halak and Jean-Francois Berube both are listed as day-to-day with lower body injuries, Halak having been out of the lineup since March 8th.  It might come down to which Thomas Greiss shows up in goal.  Will it be the one who was 7-0-1, 2.24, .925 over ten appearances over a two-months stretch from early January to early March?  Or perhaps the one who went 1-5-1, 3.17, .902 just after that.  Could it be the one who won his last four starts and went 4-0-0, 2.04, .931 in his last five appearances of the regular season?  Halak was reported skating last Thursday, but he still appears weeks away from a return. 

Wild Card Player: Josh Bailey

With Anders Lee out with a fractured leg, defenseman Travis Hamonic iffy for the first round, and the goaltender situation in uncertain condition, the Islanders have to get support from skaters other than John Tavares and Kyle Okposo.  The light shines on Josh Bailey, who just has not seemed to put together the sort of season one might have expected from a ninth-overall draft pick in 2008.  He is the sort who can provide a reliable 35-point pace per 82 games, but he has not had that breakout year, and he is not an especially impressive possession player.  He will have to raise his game in this series for the Islanders to have hopes of advancing.

In the end…

This is the “possession challenged” series, the only one of the eight that will feature both teams under 50 percent for the season in score-adjusted Corsi-for at 5-on-5.  This series is the aged (Florida) versus the infirm (the banged-up Islanders).  It could turn on whether Jaromir Jagr has the legs to get through a seven-game series or John Tavares’ shoulders are strong enough to bear the weight of what the team needs with so many key players injured.  We think it will come down to the Panthers having better goaltending than the Islanders can cobble together.

Panthers in 6

*****

Tampa Bay Lightning (46-31-5) vs. Detroit Red Wings (41-30-11)

Lightning: There is no player’s absence that will be more keenly felt in this postseason than that of Steven Stamkos’ absence from the Lightning due to a blood clot in his arm that required surgery that will keep him out from one to three months.  Stamkos had a hand in almost 30 percent of the Lightning’s 224 goals scored this season (36 goals, 28 assists).  They still have Nikita Kucherov as a 30-goal scorer, but the goal scoring drops of quite a bit from there (to Ondrej Palat with 16).  That is going to put a lot of the load on goalie Ben Bishop.  He seems entirely capable of carrying that load.  In his last 18 appearances in the regular season he was 13-4-1, 1.87, .937, with four shutouts.  It might be the sort of finishing kick that will put him squarely in the conversation over the Vezina Trophy.  But for now, he might have to be at least that good with the Lightning’s most effective offensive weapon on the bench.

Wild Card Player: Vladislav Namestnikov

Tyler Johnson was given a rough ride into the end boards by Montreal defenseman Greg Pateryn in the Lightning’s season finale on Saturday.  Listed as day-to-day with an upper body injury, if he is absent for any length of time to start the first round series, the scoring burden that is already heavier on other players will fall further down the roster.  A player like Vladislav Namestnikov will have to step up in a way he did not in last year’s postseason when he recorded one point (an assist) in 12 playoff games.  His seven minutes and change in average ice time probably had something to do with his meager production, but he averaged more than 14 minutes of ice time in 80 games this season.  He tied for fourth in goals (14) and was seventh in points (35).  He was an efficient shooter this season (13.2 percent), but it came on just 106 shots (1.33 per game). The holes in the lineup might mean he has to pull the trigger more often against the Red Wings.

Red Wings:  Sun is bright, water is wet, Red Wings make the playoffs.  These are what amount to physical constants, the Red Wings having reached the postseason for the 25th consecutive season.  The last time they finished a regular season without qualifying for the playoffs, a song titled “Black Velvet” topped the Billboard singles charts (we had to look that up).  This Red Wings team is unlike most of their predecessors.  They don’t score a lot (23rd in scoring offense), they are a middle-of-the-road team defensively (17th in scoring defense), but they are a decent puck possession team (ninth in score-adjusted Corsi-for at 5-on-5).  It is a squad that lacks top-end production.  Detroit has no player with more than 50 points (Henrik Zetterberg has 50); they do not have a player with as many as 25 goals (rookie Dylan Larkin has 23).  And, they are not exactly storming into the postseason, wrapping up the regular season with a 9-10-0 record over their last 19 games.

Wild Card Player: Tomas Tatar

Tomas Tatar is an odd sort of player, not for his performance, but for the fact that it does not seem to get much attention.  Over the past three seasons he scored goals at a 20-plus pace per 82 games, he averaged more than half a point per game, he was a solid plus-22, and his power play production was very good (18 goals, 22 assists).  Of his 69 goals scored over those three seasons, 13 were game-winners.  He has been just a solid player that is almost the definition of one who “flies under the radar.”  His production did tail off at the end of the regular season, though, going 1-2-3, plus-1 over his last 11 games with just two power play points (both assists).  If Detroit is to advance, they will need Tatar to return to his quiet, but solid level of performance.

In the end…

Maybe the Red Wings think of this as a “Win It for Pavel” sort of postseason, what with Pavel Datsyuk indicating that he will return to Russia after the playoffs.  But frankly, that is not enough for a team that just doesn’t have same sort of depth and skill that Red Wing fans are used to.  But for the fact that the Lightning come into this series lacking their best offensive player and are banged up at a number of other positions, this series would not be close.  It will be, just not close enough for Detroit to advance.

Lightning in 7

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 26

Week 26 was the last full week of action of the regular season for the Washington Capitals, and a full one it was.  It was both a “winning” week and a “losing” week. It was one with frustrating performances and historic performances.  It was some of the best and worst the Caps offered this season.  It was hockey, and when the smoke cleared they had the best record in the league and knew who their first round playoff opponent would be.

Record: 1-0-2

Week 26 could have been so much more, record-wise.  The Caps carried a lead into the third period against the New York Islanders and had a two-goal lead on the Isles with less than 12 minutes left in regulation time on home ice, as close to a lock on a win as you could imagine, the Caps having a perfect 36-0-0 record when leading after two periods to that point this season.  The Islanders then scored two goals in less than two minutes to tie the game, then grabbed the extra standings point in overtime to give the Caps a disappointing start to the week.

Then the Caps spotted the Pittsburgh Penguins a three-goal lead 29 minutes into the middle game of the week before clawing their way back to tie the contest in the third period.  All the work went for naught when Sidney Crosby scored on a breakaway in overtime for the Caps second straight extra-time loss and third straight defeat overall, the first time all season the Caps lost three in a row. 

Washington salvaged the week with perhaps their best performance of the 2016 portion of the season, spotting the St. Louis Blues an early goal, then roaring back behind five unanswered goals and a bucket of milestones met to salvage what was, from a standings points perspective, a winning week.

Offense:  3.67/game (season: 3.06 /game; rank: 2nd)

The Caps had a big week in the offensive end because the Captain had a big week.  Alex Ovechkin started the week with 45 goals and was trying to fend off the challenge of Chicago’s Patrick Kane for the league goal-scoring lead.  By the time the week ended, Ovechkin had five of the team’s 11 goals, hit the 50-goal mark for the seventh time in his career (third-most all time), recorded his 15^th career hat trick (most in the NHL since he came into the league), and passed Hall of Famer Bryan Trottier for 33^rd place on the league’s all-time goal scoring list.

Five other Caps shared in the other six goals, Marcus Johansson the only other Capital with more than one for the week, both of them in the loss to Pittsburgh.  There were 13 different Caps sharing in the points for the week.  Johansson (2-3-5) and John Carlson (1-4-5) tying Ovechkin for the team lead with five points apiece.  Carlson had quietly put together a rather impressive season in the offensive end of the ice, despite missing 25 games to injury.  His eight goals in 56 games (0.14 per game) is his second-best goals per game output of his career (0.15 goals per game last season), and his 0.70 points per game is a career high.  His plus-minus of plus-16 might have been played into a career high had he not missed so many games (plus-21 in 82 games in 2011-2012).

Meanwhile, Johansson finished the week with 46 points, one off his career high (47 in 2013-2014), and his points-per-game (0.63) is his highest in a full NHL season (he had 0.65 per game in the abbreviated 2012-2013 season).

Defense: 3.00/game (season: 2.33 /game; rank: 2nd)

“Defense” was a mixed bag for the Caps in Week 26.  On a shots-on-goal basis, it was a good week, the Caps holding three opponents to an average of just 27.3 shots on goal per game, a bit more impressive for the fact that two of the games went to extra time.  But the circumstances in which goals were scored largely reflected breakdowns at inopportune times.  The Caps yielded far too many odd man rushes to far to the Penguins in the middle game of the week, ultimately losing the game on the ultimate odd-man rush, a breakaway when two Caps were caught along the right wing wall at their own blue line, a bad thing when there are only three men on the ice.  In the Islander game the visitors got back into the game when a Capital was late getting back to defend Kyle Okposo, who took a rebound off the end wall and stuffed it in to start the Islander comeback.  It was not so much a systemic problem on defense as it was poor moments borne of poor judgement or effort.

The “moment” hypothesis, as opposed to a systemic problem, is reflected in the shot attempts at 5-on-5.  The Caps had a solid week in that respect, finishing all three games above 50 percent and going 54.2 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 for the week.  They won six of the nine regulation periods of the week in that respect and were especially efficient early in games, posting a 58.3 percent Corsi-for in the first periods of games and a 54.7 percent Corsi-for in the second periods for the week (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

Goaltending: 2.90 /.890 (season: 2.23 / .921 / 3 shutouts)

The weight of the all-time wins record that goalie Braden Holtby was pursuing seemed to be a heavy burden this week.  Holtby got all the minutes in Week 26 and had his struggles.  It would not have been so bad but for the two goals on six shots faced in two overtime games that for all intents and purposes denied Holtby the all-time wins record he was pursuing.  Even in the third periods of games, in which he stopped 30 of 32 shots for the week for a .938 save percentage, all was not unicorns and accordions.  The two goals he allowed were the two goals the Islanders scored in the third period to tie the game before the Isles won in overtime.  One of those goals was one of those “why don’t the hockey gods love us” moments when a puck that rebounded off the end wall eluded Holtby’s stick and ended up on the blade of Kyle Okposo’s stick to get the Islanders back in the game in the third period.

Not that his first two periods of play were all that shimmering.  He stopped 21 of 23 shots in the first periods of games (.913 save percentage) and 18 of 21 in the second periods of games for the week (.857).  But he did save the best for last.  He allowed a goal by St. Louis’ Vladimir Tarasenko 75 seconds into the game, then slammed the door on the Blues, stopping the last 17 shots he faced to earn the win that tied him with Martin Brodeur for the all-time record in wins by a goaltender in one season (48).

And here is the remarkable thing about Holtby’s record-tying season.  None of the other goaltenders with 45 or more wins in a single season recorded fewer than 20 regulation losses in doing so.  Holtby will go into the season finale on Sunday with just nine losses in regulation this season.

Power Play: 0-for-7 / 0.0 percent (season: 22.2 percent; rank: 4th)

Woof.  If there was a worse week for the Capitals’ power play, we don’t want to think about it.  It was not even the fact that the Caps took their second “oh-fer” in four weeks (0-for-6 in Week 23).  It was the lack of pressure.  Washington managed just four shots in 12:25 of power play ice time (Ovechkin (2), Carlson, Kuznetsov).  Part of it might have been Nicklas Backstrom missing the first game of the week against the Islanders (the Caps had no power play shots on goal in that game), but it was just a week in which the power play didn’t have enough wattage to light the refrigerator with the door open. 

Penalty Killing: 9-for-9 / 100.0 percent (season: 85.0 percent; rank: 4th)

Where the power play failed, the penalty kill sparkled.  Not since Week 3 had the Caps faced as many as nine shorthanded situations in a week and killed them all off.  And the Caps were impressively efficient in killing off all nine power plays.  They permitted only nine shots on goal in 19:25 of shorthanded ice time (0.46 shots per minute).  That included holding the St. Louis Blues without a shot on goal on their power play in six shorthanded minutes.

Faceoffs: 83-for-166 / 50.0 percent (season: 49.7% / rank: 19th)

The Caps split the week right down the middle for Week 26 overall.  They also “split” the week by games, winning one (against St. Louis), losing one (against Pittsburgh), and winning 50 percent in the other (against the Islanders).  By zone it was equally inconclusive, the Caps less successful in the offensive end (45.3 percent) than they were in the defensive end (57.4 percent), while losing the neutral zone total for the week (48.5 percent).

Among those Caps taking at least ten draws for the week, Jay Beagle (57.1 percent) and Mike Richards (63.1 percent) were impressive.  Richards was the only Capital to win all three zones for the week (offensive: 6-8; defensive: 6-10; neutral: 9-15).  Beagle finished the week with the third best faceoff winning percentage in the league among players taking at least 500 draws (58.1 percent, trailing only Ryan Kesler (58.5 percent) and Jonathan Toews (58.6 percent)).

Goals by Period:

It would have been a lot better week if the goal breakdown by regulation period reflected a different distribution among the games.  The Caps had an 11-7 edge in goals scored in regulation.  It is those seven goals against.  Two of them came in the first period, both of them scored by the Penguins, the first two goals of the game in a 4-3 overtime loss.  There were two scored by opponents in the third period, both by the Islanders to tie the game after the Caps took a 3-1 lead, only to lose by a 4-3 score in overtime.  Sometimes it’s not the “what,” or even so much the “how,” but the “when”

In the end…

On one level, you cannot say Week 26 was a good one for the Caps, not with a 1-0-2 record.  But the team had clinched the Presidents Trophy before the week started, they knew they would have the top seed in the postseason and home-ice advantage as long as they were playing.  That left the incentive a number of team and personal milestones, many of which were achieved:

• The 2015-2016 Caps reached the 120-point mark for the second time in seven seasons and are just the ninth team to reach that mark in NHL history.  They are one of three teams to have done it at least twice.  Montreal has done it four times, while the Detroit Red Wings have done it twice.
• The Caps finished the week with 56 wins, a franchise record and the ninth team in NHL history to reach that mark.
• The Caps became the first team in 39 years to go an entire NHL season without losing consecutive games in regulation, the 1976-1977 Montreal Canadiens being the last team to do it on their way to a 60-8-12 record.
• Braden Holtby won his 48^th game of the season, tying Martin Brodeur’s league record, set with the New Jersey Devils in 2006-2007.  Holtby is the only player to win 45 or more games in fewer than 70 season appearances (he did it in his 66^th appearance) and is the only one to do it with fewer than 20 regulation losses (he has nine).
• Alex Ovechkin recorded his seventh 50-goal season, becoming the first player in NHL history to record two separate three-season streaks of 50 or more goals.  In doing so he won the Maurice Richard Trophy as the league’s top goal scorer for the sixth time, the last four in succession.
• Jason Chimera recorded his 20th goal of the season in the week’s final game, the 5-1 win over the St. Louis Blues.  It tied a career-high in goals scored for Chimera, set with the Caps in 2011-2012.
• Nicklas Backstrom had three assists against the Blues, his fourth game with three or more assists this season, tying him with teammate Evgeny Kuznetsov and Ottawa’s Erik Karlsson for the league lead.  It was his 31st career game with three or more assists, most in the league since he came into the NHL in 2007-2008.
• Backstrom finished the week with 50 assists for the season, giving him six seasons of 50 or more assists since he entered the league in 2007-2008, tied with Ryan Getzlaf, Henrik Sedin, and Joe Thornton for most in the league in that span.

It was quite a week.  Bring on the Flyers.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Alex Ovechkin (5-0-5, plus-5, 20 shots on goal, 31 shot attempts, five hits)
• Second Star: John Carlson (1-4-5, plus-6, 4 blocked shots, 3 hits, on ice for one goal against)
• Third Star: T.J. Oshie (1-3-4, plus-3, 8 takeaways, 4 hits, 4 blocked shots)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 82: Ducks at Capitals, April 10th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well, we are at the end of it.  The journey that started last October ends where it began, on the ice at Verizon Center where the Washington Capitals will host the Anaheim Ducks in a game that was postponed from January when the region was buried in snow from Winter Storm Jonas.

Washington comes into this game with few things left on the checklist to check off.  They can set a franchise record of 122 standings points with a win, and if that win is recorded by goalie Braden Holtby, he will hold the record for most wins in a season by a goaltender.  The Ducks, meanwhile, have a bit more to reach for – the top seed in the Pacific Division.  If the Ducks capture two points, they will pass the Los Angeles Kings in the division and face the Nashville Predators in the first round of the playoffs instead of the San Jose Sharks.

The Ducks are stumbling a bit coming into this game with a 2-2-1 record over their last five games.  Scoring has been an issue with only 12 goals in those five games, five of them coming in a 5-3 win over the Colorado Avalanche in the Ducks’ last game, played on Saturday night in Denver.

What the Ducks have been lacking is a certain star power in their offensive game.  Ryan Getzlaf has a goal and an assist over the last five games, and until Corey Perry recorded three assists against Colorado on Saturday night, he has not had a multi-point game since March 3^rd (5-7-12 in his last 18 games).  The Ducks are led in goals over the last five games by Ryan Kesler (three), giving him his third straight 20-goal season and eight of his career.  Kesler has been quite the road warrior lately, going 3-11-14 in his last 13 road games.  In 11 career games against the Caps, Kesler is 3-6-9, plus-2.

Jakov Silfverberg is tied with Kesler for the team lead in points over the last five games (2-3-5).  With two goals against Colorado on Saturday, he hit the 20-goal mark for the first time in his four-year career and tied his career-best in points (39) set last season.  What he does not yet have that he had in each of his first three seasons is at least one shorthanded goal (we’ll be pulling for him to miss a fourth season), but he does have something he did not have in any of his first three season, an overtime goal, scored in a 3-2 win over Winnipeg on March 20th.  Silfverberg is 1-2-3, even, in eight career games against the Caps.

With John Gibson having appeared in the last seven games for the Ducks, it could be Frederik Andersen getting the nod in goal for the Ducks in the back half of their weekend road back-to-back.  Andersen last appeared in a game on March 30^th, when he logged 11 minutes and change in the second period of an 8-3 win over the Calgary Flames.  It was an odd circumstance, Andersen coming into the game after Gibson was shaken up in a collision with teammate defenseman Hampus Lindholm.  Andersen probably wanted a do-over after allowing three goals on five shots and yielding to Gibson in the third period.  In his last three appearances dating back to March 24^th he has allowed 12 goals on 64 shots (.813 save percentage).  He has never faced the Capitals.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Anaheim leads the NHL in both power play (23.4 percent) and penalty kill (87.1 percent), the power play even better on the road – 24.8 percent.

2.  You would not expect a 100-point team to have a poor record when scoring first, but the Ducks can be caught when they get the first goal.  They rank just 18^th in winning percentage (.660/33-7-10), and their ten overtime losses when scoring is most in the league.  Their 50 instances of scoring first is second most in the league, behind Chicago (53, with a record of 41-6-6).

3.  Despite scoring first 50 times this season, the Ducks do not often lead at the first intermission, and when they do they are not especially successful, at least in the context of league rankings.  Anaheim has taken a lead into the first intermission 33 times and has a record of 23-4-6, a winning percentage of .697 that ranks tied for 22^nd in the leagtue.

4.  Anaheim does not work or play well with others.  Their 328 minor penalties is third most in the league.  If they take three against the Caps, they will jump into second place over the Winnipeg Jets.

5.  Anaheim is the fifth-best possession team in the league, as measured in Corsi-for percent at 5-on-5 (52.4).  They are also fifth in that measure in road games (51.1 percent; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  Let’s look at a few milestones that can be reached for the Caps in Game 82.  With three points, Evgeny Kuznetsov would finish the season with 80 points.   He would become the fourth Capital to hit that mark since the 2004-2005 lockout, joining Alex Ovechkin (seven times), Nicklas Backstrom (twice), and Alexander Semin for the club.

2.  John Carlson and Andre Burakovsky are within striking distance of 40-point seasons, Carlson needing one point and Burakovsky needing two.  If both make it, the Caps would finish the season with nine players with 40 or more points.  Compare that to last season when the Caps had six such players.

3.  Kuznetsov is currently at plus-25. No Capital has finished a season at plus-25 or better since the 2010 season when six players topped that mark.

4.  Alex Ovechkin stands at 19 power play goals.  If he gets one more he will have his fifth 20-power play goal season, tying Brett Hull for most over the last 40 years.

5.  The Caps have an odd relationship of Corsi-for to scoring on home ice.  Their Corsi-for at 5-on-5 ranks just 15^th in the league (51.7 percent), but their goal differential of plus-22 at fives on home ice ranks fourth in the league (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Anaheim:  Bruce Boudreau

OK, he is not a player, but Bruce Boudreau is about to wrap up a remarkable regular season.  After the Ducks stumbled out of the gate with an awful October (1-7-2), the “Bruce Watch” began anticipating his firing as head coach.  The end of October would be the low-water mark for the club.  They slowly and methodically resurrected their season, going 44-18-9 since then as they come to Washington.   Boudreau will finish the season with a points percentage over .600 for the eighth time in nine NHL seasons, the only season he missed it being the one in which he was fired by the Caps and hired by the Ducks (39-32-9 overall, a .544 points percentage).  Boudreau is 3-1-1 in games coached against Washington.

Washington: Justin Williams

When Justin Williams takes the ice on Sunday night, he will do so for the 1,000^th time in the regular season for his career.  Williams has been everything anyone could have expected in his first season in Washington.  He will have appeared in all 82 games for the season, the fifth time he will have appeared in all 82 games.  He ranks third on the club with 22 goals, topping the 20-goal mark for the first time since the 2011-2012 season with Los Angeles.  He has 30 assists, fourth on the team and the first time he reached that level since 2011-2012.  His 52 points is fourth on the club and, again, his best since 2011-2012.  His plus-15 is a career best, tying a mark he recorded in 2012-2013.  He has not been especially hot lately (1-2-3 in his last ten games), but he has had success against the Ducks, going 11-14-25, plus-4, in 36 career games.

In the end…

At the moment, it appears that Philipp Grubauer will “probably” get the call in goal for the Capitals on Sunday, meaning there would be no last attempt to secure the all-time goalie wins record for Braden Holtby.  That would make give the Caps few incentives in this contest, other than to remind their former coach that they are still a formidable team.  But this team has, for the most part this season, done a good job of taking care of business.  This is a chance to punch the time clock and carry the lunch pail one last time before the fun starts in the postseason.

Capitals 3 – Ducks 2

Washington Capitals Recap: A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 5 - Blues 1

If the Washington Capitals were in need of an all-around performance to get them prepared for the postseason that starts in less than a week, they got it on Saturday night as they spotted the St. Louis Blues an early goal, then roared back with five unanswered goals in what was a milestone night up and down the roster.

It did not start well for the Caps as the Blues jumped in front in the first 90 seconds of the game.  It started with Vladimir Tarasenko setting up between the hash marks as Alex Pietrangelo  circled with the puck behind the net.  The Caps seemed a bit mesmerized by Pietrangelo as he came out with the puck to the right of goalie Braden Holtby.  It was enough for Pietrangelo to find Tarasenko for a one-timer to give the Blues a 1-0 lead just 75 seconds into the contest.

It did not take long for the Caps to shake off the insult.  Just as the clock passed the four minute mark, T.J. Oshie pinched down the wall to keep a loose puck out of the grips of Carl Gunnarsson.  Nicklas Backstrom circled in to take control, then fed John Carlson at the top of the offensive zone.  Carlson took advantage of two Blues closing on him.  It gave Carlson the opportunity to slide the puck off to his left where Alex Ovechkin was waiting.  A one-timer later, it was 1-1, and the Caps were off and running. 

Less than three minutes later it was Ovechkin again.  Backstrom took a faceoff to the right of Elliott in the Blues’ zone.  With his second swipe at the puck, he pulled it back to Ovechkin, past the attempted steal by Robby Fabbri.  It was a positional mistake by Fabbri, whose momentum left him out of position to do anything but turn his head around just as Ovechkin was settling the puck and snapping it past Elliott to make it 2-1 at the 6:49 mark.

In the third period, another pair of Caps got into the scoring column.  John Carlson and Tom Wilson worked a lovely give-and-go, starting when Carlson fielded a pass at the top of the offensive zone from Brooks Orpik.  Carlson turned and fed Tom Wilson at the right wing wall, then broke to the net behind Alexander Steen.  Wilson froze Jori Lehtera with a look that said “shot,” then led Carlson for a tap in behind Elliott that gave the Caps a 3-1 lead 5:21 into the period.

A little more than five minutes later the Caps added another goal, courtesy of Jason Chimera.  It started with Dmitry Orlov with a stretch pass to Evgeny Kuznetsov skating through the neutral zone.  Kuznetsov circled into the Blues’ zone, weaved his way across the middle, faked a pass to Tom Wilson, then, as he pulled goalie Brian Elliott to defend against a shot, he whipped a backhand pass across the slot to a fast-closing Chimera, who batter the puck behind Elliott to make it 4-1 at the 10:56 mark.

There were two items of business left for the Caps in the third period.  They checked one off the list mid-way through the period.  T.J. Oshie stripped Jay Bouwmeester of the puck just outside the Caps’ blue line and fed it up to Nicklas Backstrom heading the other way.  Backstrom led the Caps on a 3-on-1 rush.  With the lone defender occupying Oshie in the middle, Backstrom floated a saucer pass to the left side where Alex Ovechkin one-timed it past Anders Nilsson, in goal in relief of Brian Elliott for the third period.  It gave Ovechkin the hat trick and a 50-goal season for the seventh time in 11 NHL seasons. 

That left the last order of business for the Caps, now all but assured with the bunches of goals.  Braden Holtby stopped all ten shots he faced in the third period to secure his 48^th win of the season, tying a record set by Martin Brodeur in 2006-2007 with the New Jersey Devils, the Caps skating off with the 5-1 win.  

Other stuff…

-- The Capitals became the ninth team in NHL history to win 56 or more games in a season.  In doing so they became the first team in 39 years to do it without losing consecutive games in regulation (they will finish the season with that fact intact), the 1976-1977 Montreal Canadiens being the last team to do it on their way to a 60-8-12 season.

-- Washington also became just the ninth team in NHL history to reach 120 standings points in a season.  They are one of three teams to have done it at least twice.  Montreal has done it four times, while the Detroit Red Wings have done it twice.

-- Braden Holtby winning his 48^th game and tying Martin Brodeur for the all-time record of wins in a season is an amazing accomplishment, but there is something even more remarkable about it.  In none of the other instances of a goalie winning 45 or more games in a regular season did they record fewer than 20 regulation losses.  Holtby has nine.

-- The greatest pure goal scorer I ever saw was Mike Bossy.  But for his sheer consistency and reliability, it would be hard to top Alex Ovechkin.  His hat trick gave him his seventh 50-goal season and sixth Maurice Richard Trophy as the league’s top goal scorer, his fourth in a row (a record since the Trophy was first awarded after the 1998-1999 season).  He became the first player in NHL history to record three-straight 50-goal seasons in two separate streaks.  And consider this.  After the 2011-2012 season, when he had “just” 38 goals in 78 games (his second straight season in which he did not reach the 40-goal mark), he was considered in decline.  In the four seasons since, he has 186 goals.  The second-ranked goal scorer over that period is San Jose’s Joe Pavelski, who has 131.

-- Jason Chimera recorded his 20^th goal of the season in this game.  It tied a career-high in goals scored for Chimera, set with the Caps in 2011-2012.

-- Nicklas Backstrom had three assists, his fourth game with three or more assists this season, tying him with teammate Evgeny Kuznetsov and Ottawa’s Erik Karlsson for the league lead.  It was his 31^st career game with three or more assists, most in the league since he came into the NHL in 2007-2008.

-- John Carlson had a two-point game (goal, assist), giving him consecutive multi-point games and nine for the year in just 56 games.  Since he returned from injury on March 25^th, he has not gone consecutive games without a point and is 2-6-8 in nine games.

--  Mike Richards might not have had much action on the scoring side, but he did make his presence felt.  In 14:28 of ice time, he had four hits and won 13 of 19 faceoffs (68.4 percent).

-- If there was a hole in the offense for the Caps, look to Andre Burakovsky and Marcus Johansson.  Between them, they did not record a shot attempt.

-- St. Louis recorded the first three shot attempts, the last resulting in their only goal.  After that, the Caps out attempted the Blues, 55-38, at 5-on-5, finishing the game with a 57.3 percent Corsi-for at fives.  And it was something of a “score effect” that the final numbers were that close.  The Caps had a 26-9 edge in shot attempts at 5-on-5 in the first period and a 15-12 edge in the second (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

In the end…

This might have been the best game the Caps played in the 2016 portion of the season.  On the road, against an opponent they have a history of some struggles against (2-2-1 in St. Louis since the 2004-2005 lockout), and against a team that still had something to play for (a top-seed in the Central Division).  One might have liked to see a Burakovsky or a Johansson make more of an impact, and one hopes that the injury Jay Beagle suffered when he took a shot off the inside of his ankle does not take him out of the lineup, but having the stars come up big was a big plus as the Caps wrapped up the road portion of their regular season schedule.  It was a superb effort in all three periods in all three zones, just the tonic for the team and its fans as the playoffs are about to begin.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 81: Capitals at Blues, April 9th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrapped up the Eastern Conference portion of their season on Thursday night with a 4-3 overtime loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins.  They have two games against Western Conference teams remaining, the first of which will be played on Saturday night in St. Louis against the Blues.

Washington comes into this game dragging their first three-game losing streak of the season with them.  That is also four losses in five games and five losses in seven contests.  On the other side, the Blues are humming along with a three-game winning streak and wins in eight of their last nine games, including a 4-0 shutout win over the Caps on March 26^th.

In the five games played by the Blues since they faced the Caps, they are 4-1-0, outscoring their opponents by a 20-11 margin, more than half of those goals allowed coming in an uncharacteristic 6-5 loss at home to Boston on April 1^st.  Their power play has been a fine 5-for-19 (26.3 percent), while their penalty kill is 12-for-14 (85.7 percent) over the same five games.

Vladimir Tarasenko leads the Blues in goals (four) and points (eight) over the last five games.  It is part of a longer hot streak for Tarasenko.  Since March 1^st, he is 10-9-19, plus-7, in 16 games.  For Tarasenko the goal-scoring binge vaulted him to a career-best 39 goals for the season, two more than the 37 with which he finished last season.  He is one of just four players with more than 75 goals over the past two seasons, Jamie Benn (76), Steven Stamkos (79) and Alex Ovechkin (100) being the others.  He and Benn are the only players with at least 75 goals and 70 assists over the past two seasons.  Tarasenko is 2-1-3, plus-6, in four career games against Washington.

Alex Pietrangelo leads the defense in scoring over the last five games (2-4-6) in a season that looks a lot like his previous two in terms of goal scoring, but not in assists.  His goals per game this year (0.10) are similar to what he recorded last season (0.09) and in 2013-2014 (0.10).  His assists follow a somewhat different pattern – 0.40 per game this season compared to 0.48 last season and 0.53 in 2013-2014.  He is now on a four-game points streak, his longest since putting four straight games together in early January.  Pietrangelo is one of only five defensemenover the past three seasons to record at least 20 goals, at least 100 assists, and post a plus-minus of plus-25 or greater.  He has one assist and is a plus-1 in seven career games against the Capitals.

As far as goaltending in concerned, the Blues have an embarrassment of riches, or at least hot goaltenders at the moment.  Brian Elliott seems to have the inside track on starting in goal for the postseason based on a longer period of superior play.  In his last 21 appearance dating back to mid-January he is 15-2-2, 1.64, .943, with four shutouts, three of those coming in succession against Vancouver (twice) and San Jose in late March.  However, Jake Allen has provided solid minutes lately.  He shut out the Caps on March 26, and he has allowed just one goal in his last 120 minutes.  Elliott is 6-2-0, 3.17, .886 in ten career appearances against the Caps, while Allen has the shutout on March 26^th in his only career appearance against Washington. He is listed as day-to-day with a lower body injury.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Over the last five seasons through Thursday night, no team – not Chicago, not Los Angeles, not Pittsburgh, not the New York Rangers – has won more regular season games than the St. Louis Blues (230).

2.  This year, the Blues are tied for the second highest number of wins (49) through Thursday’s games, but the odd part of it is that they have a better record on the road (25-11-5) than they do at home (24-12-4).

3.  St. Louis protects the puck well, even if one acknowledges the arbitrary nature of awarding takeaways and giveaways.  No team has been credited with fewer giveaways this season than the Blues (443).

4.  Only three teams have had more shorthanded situations faced on home ice this season than the Blues (137) – Detroit (138), Anaheim (140) and Arizona (151).

5.  It might strike one as surprising that the Blues have an “even” goal differential on home ice this season (59 goals for, 59 goals against; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  The Capitals have more standings points earned in just the Eastern Conference portion of their schedule (83 on a record of 39-10-5) than 11 teams have in total for the season through Thursday night’s games.  Those 39 wins are more than 13 other teams.

2.  The Caps’ recent record is as much frustrating as it is disappointing, perhaps more so.  No team has more one-goal victories than the Caps (27, tied with Los Angeles and Detroit), and they have the best winning percentage in such games (.658/27-6-8).  However, three of their last four losses were by one goal, all of them in extra time. 

3.  In the same vein, earlier in the season the “3-2” score was one that the Caps liked seeing.  All in all, they have a 13-3-1 record in games ending in a 3-2 score.  The “4-3” score?  Not so much.  The Caps lost their last two games by that margin, both in overtime.  The Caps have a 3-2-4 record in games ending in a 4-3 score this season.

4.  No player since the 2004-2005 lockout has more game-winning goals than Alex Ovechkin (87).  However, he has only one game-winning goal in his last 31 games, the overtime game-winner in a 2-1 victory over the Carolina Hurricanes on March 15^th.

5.  The Caps have had a good run of it as far as their road possession numbers are concerned.  Over their last four road games, their Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall is 59.1 percent.  They do not have much to show for it, though.  Their goal differential is “minus-2,” two for and four against (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

St. Louis: Troy Brouwer

The former Capital forward is 3-3-6 over his last four games, putting him within striking distance of recording his third consecutive 20-goal season (he has 18) and one point away from his third straight 40-point season.  Brouwer’s goal-scoring success has coincided quite nicely with team success.  The Blues are 14-2-2 in the 18 games in which Brouwer has a goal (he does not have a multi-goal game this season), and the Blues have won each of the last six games in which he has one.  He is doing it in a somewhat less efficient manner than has been customary in his career.  His 12.8 percent shooting percentage is his worst since his first full season with Chicago when he had a 7.9 percent shooting percentage in 69 games.  He does not have a point and is minus-1 in three career games against Washington.

Washington: Dmitry Orlov

If there is a player that opponents are going to look to exploit for the Washington Capitals in the postseason, it could be defenseman Dmitry Orlov.  The 24-year old has never appeared in an NHL postseason game, and he has not appeared in a postseason game of any kind since he appeared in four post season games with the Hershey Bears in 2013.  It is going to be important that he be prepared for what awaits him in the playoffs.  It means he is going to have to contribute more than he has recently.  He has had a rough go of it as the season winds down, going 0-0-0, minus-5 over his last nine games, and his 10:42 in ice time against Pittsburgh on Thursday night was his lowest ice time since February 13^th against Dallas (10:19).  Orlov has an assist and is minus-1 in three career games against the Blues.

In the end…

The Caps have hardly been a good team over the last month, but their misfortune might be a bit overstated.  Yes, they are 11-7-4 in their last 22 games, but of the 11 losses, seven of them were by one goal, four of them in extra time.  For the Caps it is now a matter of finding that  one shot, that one save, that one extra bit of effort that will propel them past those frustrating one-goal losses and back to winning with something approaching the regularity with which they did so earlier in the season.

Capitals 3 – Blues 2