Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 24

Country music legend Merle Haggard once wrote about “California on my mind.”  Well, for the Washington Capitals, Week 24 was California “off” their minds, and it showed.  It made for the sort of week the Caps haven’t seen in quite a while.

Record: 3-0-0

Week 24 was the first week in quite a while in which the Caps played more than one game to a perfect record.  They went 3-0-0, the first time they were perfect with that many games played since they went 3-0-0 in Week 10 back in early December.

Making it better, the Caps put an up and coming team in its place, and then they turned their attention to a divisional opponent against which they had two opportunities to drive a spike into their fading playoff hopes, opportunities the Caps took advantage of in a big way.

Washington hosted the Winnipeg Jets to open the week, a team that beat the Caps in overtime four weeks earlier, a win that propelled the Jets to a 9-3-0 record in their next dozen games before visiting Washington.  The Caps caught the Jets in the fifth of a six-game road trip, and it might have been a factor in returning the favor in a 3-2 overtime win of their own. 

They followed that win with a back-to-back/home-and-home set of wins against the New York Islanders in which they outscored the Isles, 13-6, in their biggest two-game offensive explosion of the season.  The sweep left the Islanders 12 points out of a playoff spot by week’s end and enabled the Caps to maintain a two-point lead over the Pittsburgh Penguins at the top of the Metropolitan Division.

Offense: 5.33 /game (season: 3.08 /game, rank: 10th)

It is hard to jump very much in the team statistical rankings this late in the season, but a 16-goal week for the Caps pushed them up two spots in scoring offense, from 12^th to 10^th in the league.  Only San Jose scored more goals in Week 24 (21), but they needed four games to do it.  The Caps led the league in goals per game for the week (5.33). 

Not that they did it by shooting the puck, though.  The Caps had 96 shots on goal for the week, ranking 21^st overall.  What they were was efficient.  Six players had shooting percentages of 20 percent or better for the week, led by Lars Eller, who had two goals (one an empty-netter) on three shots for the week (66.7 percent).

It was T.J. Oshie, though, who led the team in goals for the week with three.  It was a welcome turn for the right winger, who snapped a 19-game streak without a goal when he potted a pair in the Caps’ 7-3 win over the Islanders on Thursday.  He added another for good measure in the 6-3 win over the Isles the next night. 

The good and the bad might have been wrapped up in Evgeny Kuznetsov, though.  He led the Caps in scoring for the week with seven points, and his only goal was the game-winner in overtime against the Jets to open the week.  However, he went out with an upper-body injury in the last game of the week, the second against the Islanders when he was slashed by Thomas Hickey as he was breaking to the net, and then he was tripped by goalie Jaroslav Halak’s stick, causing him to slam awkwardly into the end boards, apparently injuring his left arm.  He is out for the time being, considered day-to-day.

On the milestone side, Tom Wilson assisted on a first period goal in the Caps’ 7-3 win in Brooklyn against the Islanders on Thursday.  It was his 100^th career point in the NHL, the 78^th player in Capitals history to hit triple digits with the club.

Defense: 2.67 / game (season: 2.92 /game, rank: T-16th)

It might not sound particularly impressive, but the Caps allowing three or fewer goals in all three games for the week extended their streak of such games to five, the longest such streak they have had since stringing together 14 such games (Games 27-40) that constituted the entire December schedule.  Perhaps not coincidentally, the Caps were 10-2-2 in those games, while they are 4-1-0 in this five-game stretch.

It was an uneven week in shots allowed, though.  In the two home games, the 3-2 win over the Jets and the second game against the Islanders, the Caps permitted only 53 shots on goal.  In the middle game of the week, against the Islanders in Brooklyn, the home team recorded 38 shots on goal.

It was not a product of shot attempts allowed, the Caps finishing seventh among 20 teams playing three games this week in 5-on-5 shot attempts allowed.  But their shot attempt differential at fives (minus-25) was third-worst among those 20 teams.  The Caps give appearances of being a team that in trying to be so selective in the offensive end are putting pressure on their defense to be better than its talent might allow.

Goaltending: 2.61 / .912 (season: 2.76 / .913 / 2 shutouts)

The goalie “reset” continued to start Week 24, Philipp Grubauer getting the nod against the Winnipeg Jets and the first of the back-to-back games against the Islanders.  He was solid in the two wins, if not spectacular.  Grubauer struggled a bit early in games, allowing three goals on 20 first period shots faced (.850 save percentage).  But he was perfect in the second periods of games (24 for 24) and allowed only one goal in each of the third periods of games, stopping 20 of 22 shots in all (.909; he did not face a shot in overtime against Winnipeg).  The two wins extended a considerable run of fine play for Grubauer, who is now 11-3-2, 1.68, .944, with two shutouts in his last 21 appearances.

Braden Holtby returned to the lineup after sitting for four games as part of his “reset.”  He got the call in the second of the back-to-back games against the Islanders to close the week, and the results might be characterized as “mixed.”  He faced only four first period shots, stopping all of them as the Caps took a 1-0 lead into the first intermission.  Then, he allowed just one goal on nine shots in the second period as the Caps took a 3-1 lead.  That he allowed two goals on 12 shots in the third period might look worse than it was, since the goals game in the latter half of the period with the Caps holding a 5-1 lead.  And, there is the matter of their being a certain amount of rust that could have accumulated in his absence.  But he does win at home.  The win over the Islanders lifted his home win-loss record to 19-6-2.

Power Play: 5-for-13 / 38.5 percent (season: 22.9 percent, rank: 4th)

Three games, three games with power play goals.  And the Caps ended the weed with a flourish, scoring three power play goals in eight chances against the Islanders in the 6-3 win to end the week, the second time this season they recorded three power play goals and the first time since they did it in a 5-2 win over the New Jersey Devils back on October 13^th in the fifth game of the season.

It was something of an unusual week individually.  Nicklas Backstrom led the team with a pair of power play goals, and Alex Chiasson had one of the others.  T.J. Oshie had one, his first since he recorded one against the Philadelphia Flyers on January 31^st.  Alex Ovechkin provided some normalcy with a power play goal of his own to round out the goal scoring.  Backstrom and Kuznetsov led the team in power play points with three apiece.

As a team, the Caps were very efficient with the man advantage.  They pounded Winnipeg for 12 shots on goal with a goal to show for it on the power play on their way to scoring five goals on 22 shots in just 19:25 in power play ice time.  But a thank you to the New York Islanders, who had something of a meltdown in the second of the back-to-back games, giving the Caps eight power play chances, the most the Caps have had in any game this season (they had six on four different occasions).

Penalty Killing: 8-for-11/ 72.7 percent (season: 79.4 percent, rank: 20th)

As good as the power play was, the penalty kill gave a lot of it back.  It would have been a lot better if the penalty killers could just have ended their week after the game in Brooklyn against the Islanders on Thursday.  Over the first two games of the week, the Caps went 6-for-6.  Philipp Grubauer fulfilled his role as being the “best penalty killer,” stopping all 13 power play shots he faced in 11:17 of shorthanded ice time.

Then there was the game against the Islanders to end the week.  All three of the Islander goals came on power plays, but two of those came late with the Caps holding a comfortable lead.  Still, three goals on nine shots in 7:44 in shorthanded ice time did not reflect well on the penalty killers or on goalie Braden Holtby.  This is, or remains, something of an issue with Holtby who, among 51 goalies facing 100 or more shots while shorthanded, ranks 31^st in save percentage (.868).

Faceoffs: 100-for-197 / 50.8 percent (season: 50.3 percent, rank: 13th)

It was something of a typical week in the circle for the Caps.  They finished a couple of wins over 50 percent, and their top faceoff players had a typically split week. 

Where the Caps did well was in the defensive end, where they went 45-for-79 (57.0 percent).  It was in the offensive end in which they struggled, going 25-for-59 for the week (42.4 percent).  That the Caps took 20 more defensive zone draws than they took in the offensive zone was significant, but that was a product of the middle game in the week.  Against the Islanders in Brooklyn, the Caps took 29 defensive zone draws, winning 14 (48.3 percent), while taking only 11 faceoffs in the offensive end, where they won five (45.5 percent).

Individually, Nicklas Backstrom (27-for-49/55.1 percent) and Jay Beagle (25-for-36/69.4 percent) were the stars in the circle.  Lars Eller (17-for-38/44.7 percent) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (16-for-43/37.2 percent) had a more difficult time of it.

Goals by Period:

Consistency was the word to describe the week for the Caps in Week 24, at least as far as scoring goals was concerned.  The Caps finished the week recording a total of five goals in each of the three regulation periods, adding an overtime goal for good measure.  The five first period goals allowed the Caps to take leads into the first intermission in both games against the Islanders and finish the week still one of just two teams in the league without a loss when leading after the first period (St. Louis is the other).  The Caps have the best winning percentage in such games (24-0-1/.960).

That the Caps allowed four third period goals is eyecatching, but might be tempered by the fact that the Caps took multiple-goal leads into the third period in both games against the Islanders.  Still, the Caps ended the week with a minus-3 goal differential in the third periods of games this season, and this will be something that bears watching down the stretch.

In the end…

Following up a rough start to the California trip in Week 23, but ending it with a win might have been just the thing that the Caps needed to set them off and running down the stretch as the season heads into its last few weeks.  The injury to Evgeny Kuznetsov casts a shadow over the club as they head to Philadelphia to start Week 25, but this is a club that, if not playing at the top of their game, is taking care of business at home and against weaker opponents.  Week 24 was both, a welcome result after putting California behind them.

And in that, we’ll let Merle have the last word (with some light adjustments)…

Well I’m a homesick bat couldn’t be no sicker

I’m proud to say that I’m a puck picker

That state and we just don’t agree.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (1-6-7, plus-2, OT/GWG, 0-3-3 on power play, 8 shots, 9 shot attempts)
• Second Star: Nicklas Backstrom (2-4-6, plus-4, 2-1-3 on power play, 12 shots on goal, 15 shot attempts, 55.1 percent on faceoffs)
• Third Star: Tom Wilson (0-2-2, plus-1, four penalties drawn, 100^th career point)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 72: Capitals at Flyers, March 18th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return to the ice on Sunday, to a venue in which they played perhaps their worst game of the season.  Games between the Caps and the Philadelphia Flyers are never mundane affairs, and for one of the teams to steamroll the other is a source of glee for the players, coaches, and fans of that team.  Such was the case on October 14^th, when the Caps, fresh of a 5-2 win over the New Jersey Devils the previous night, were pounded into the pavement by the Flyers At Wells Fargo Center, 8-2.

That was then, and this is now.  And now, the skates might be on the other feet, so to speak.  Washington goes into this game winners of four straight, their longest winning streak since the won five games in a row (Games 39-43) in late December and early January.  On the other side the Flyers, who on February 26^th won a sixth game in a row, earned a point in their 12^th straight game, and occupied first place in the Metropolitan Division, have lost seven of eight games (1-6-1) in March going into their game Saturday night against Carolina and are just four points ahead of Florida, the ninth-place team in the Eastern Conference, on Saturday morning.

The Flyers clearly missed Wayne Simmonds in this difficult stretch.  Simmonds was injured in a 7-4 win over the New York Rangers on February 18^th, perhaps in a fight with Anthony DeAngelo, sustaining an upper-body injury that cost him seven games.  He returned to the lineup on March 7^th, by which time the Flyers had lost three in a row on their 1-6-1 run of late.  His return to the lineup has not changed Philadelphia’s fortunes, perhaps a product of his having only a goal and an assist (and a team-worst minus-7) in five games since coming back.  His improvement in production matters to the Flyers.  He is one of three 20-goal scorers (21) for the club, and he leads the team with 11 power play goals this season.  He is the only Flyer with both a power play goal and a shorthanded goal this season, and he is third on the club with four game-winning goals.  In 31 career games against the Caps, Simmonds is 6-10-16, minus-1, and he has three career game-winning goals against the Caps, one of five teams against which he has three game-winners.

There is a certain “canary in a coal mine” quality about defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere.  When he records a point, they generally win (22-8-6); when he doesn’t, they don’t (11-16-4).  And lately, he hasn’t.  Playing in all eight games of this 1-6-1 stretch, Gostisbehere has a goal and an assist (oddly enough, both in losses), and he is tied with Simmonds for the worst plus-minus in this stretch (minus-7).  The goal he recorded in a 5-3 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets on Thursday broke a 19-game streak without one.  That goal having been scored on a power play, Gostisbehere is still without an even strength goal in his last 20 games, since recording one in a 4-3 loss to the New Jersey Devils on February 1^st.  His dry spell of late slammed to a halt the momentum he built in having the most productive season of his career to date, points-wise (52, eclipsing the 46 he had in his rookie season in 2015-2016).  In ten career games against Washington, Gostisbehere is 0-6-6, plus-2.

If the Flyers thought they would solve their goalie injury situation with their trade with the Detroit Red Wings for Petr Mrazek last month, another think might be appropriate.  Oh, there was early hope and joy when Mrazek won his first three decisions and stopped 75 of 82 shots (.915 save percentage).  But since then, he is 1-5-1, 4.04, .863 going into Saturday’s game.  And if Mrazek was “Plan C” after injuries to Brian Elliott and Michal Neuvirth, there might not be a “Plan D.”  Alex Lyon, who relieved Mrazek on Thursday, is reported to be the starter against Carolina on Saturday.   Whatever promise he has for the future, he has little experience at the moment.  In this, his rookie season, he has seven appearances (only three complete games) and has a record of 2-2-0, 2.57, .912.  Mrazek is 2-3-2, 2.43, .921, with one shutout in seven career appearances against the Caps, while Lyon stopped all five shots he faced over eight minutes of work in a 5-3 loss to the Caps on January 31^st, his only action against Washington.

1.  Special teams have let the Flyers down in this 1-6-1 run.  Their special teams index number – 85.7 – is a product of a weak power play (14.3 percent) and an inefficient penalty kill (71.4 percent). 

2.  Another odd special teams number: 49:34.  That is Philadelphia’s power play ice time over those eight games.  Only Boston had more (54:32).  Perhaps this is another indicator of weak power play results.  The Flyers are skating off entire power plays without success.  Think of it this way.  The Flyers had 28 power play chances in that span, meaning their average power play lasted 1:43, a large chunk of the usual two-minute power play.

3.  The Flyers have just 14 even strength goals in those eight games.  Only four teams have fewer: Vegas (13 in eight games), Edmonton (11 in seven games), Buffalo (10 in six games), and Vancouver (eight in seven games).

4.  One might get the feeling that the Flyers are skating in a bit of bad luck.  Their shot attempt numbers are not as bad as their record over the last eight games as of Saturday morning.  Their shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 (50.63) ranks eighth overall in that span, 12^th in close situations (50.93).

5.  The Flyers are something of a top-heavy team in scoring.  They are tied with Pittsburgh and the Islanders for most players with 65 or more points (three).  The Flyers include: Claude Giroux (83), Jakub Voracek (75), and Sean Couturier (65).

1.  The Caps have won two road games in a row, a 2-0 decision in San Jose against the Sharks last Saturday and a 7-3 win in Brooklyn over the New York Islanders on Thursday.  That matches the longest road winning streak for the Caps this season, achieved on two other occasions, and the first time they put together consecutive road wins in regulation.

2.  The 7-3 win in Brooklyn against the Islanders on Thursday was the highest scoring road game for the Caps this season (highest scoring game, road or home) and largest goal differential on the road (plus-4)

3.  The Capitals are the only team in the NHL to have recorded fewer than 1,000 shots on goal on the road this season.  They have 973, 31 fewer than the Arizona Coyotes through games of Friday.

4.  The Caps haver 403 penalty minutes on the road this season.  Three teams have more: Florida (419), Nashville (454), and Calgary (461).

5.  If the Caps win in Philadelphia, don’t be surprised if they get an empty net goal to tack on.  In 16 road wins this season, the Caps have seven empty net goals from six different players.  Alex Ovechkin is the only Cap with two road empty netters.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Philadelphia: Claude Giroux

Claude Giroux is in his 11^th season in the NHL, all with the Philadelphia Flyers.  His longevity (tied for fourth in franchise history in seasons played), durability (he missed a total of nine games over the last nine seasons), and talent has enabled him to occupy a high rank in a number of franchise statistical categories.  Giroux is ninth all-time in Flyers history in games played (727), 13^th in goals (206), fourth in assists (452), sixth in points (658), 15^th in even strength goals (131), 13^th in power play goals (70), 13^th in game-winning goals (33), and eighth in shots on goal (1,868).  He has had a renaissance of sorts, his 26 goals through 71 games being his highest goal total since he finished the 2013-2014 season with 28 goals in 82 games, tying a career high he set in 2011-2012.  He has done his best to help the Flyers out of their recent doldrums.  He takes an eight-game points streak into the contest against Carolina on Saturday, and he has points in 16 of his last 18 games, going 11-14-25, plus-9 over that span.  Giroux has been especially lethal on home ice this season, going 16-30-46, plus-19 in 36 games at Wells Fargo Center.  He has an interesting symmetry in his career against the Caps, going 18-18-36 in 36 games with a plus-3.

Washington: Alex Chiasson

When Alex Chiasson scored a goal and posted a pair of assists against the New York Islanders in the Caps’ 6-3 win on Friday night, it was his first three-point game since he had a goal and two assists for the Calgary Flames in an 8-3 win over the Anaheim Ducks on December 4, 2016.  Of more relevance to his contributions as a Capital, it was the 11^th game this season in which he posted at least one point.  Those games are an example of second- and third-level scoring in a team’s success.  The Caps are 8-1-2 in those 11 games, 6-1-0 in the seven games in which he scored a goal.  His energetic contributions in other areas of offense also parallel Capitals success.  For example, in the 13 games in which he had at least two shots on goal, the Caps are 10-2-1.  He has been something of a good-luck charm generally this season, the Caps holding a 32-17-5 record in the 54 games he has played, 9-6-2 when he was out of the lineup.  In 12 career games against the Flyers, Chiasson is 1-1-2, minus-3.

In the end…

In this last game of the season series between the clubs (the Caps are 1-1-1 in the first three games), the Caps get the Flyers almost where they should want them.  Setting the fact this game is being played in Philadelphia aside, the Caps will be facing the Flyers as the home team plays a second game in less than 24 hours and their third in four days.  Then there is that record the Flyers have as they head into the first of their back-to-back this evening in Carolina against the Hurricanes (1-6-1).  The Flyers still have goaltending issues, the goalie for whom they traded dropping off in performance and a rookie with scant experience backing him up.  This is a game a veteran team with a purpose should take command of early, to take the fans out of the game (and turn them hostile to the home team, if possible), and win going away before they, well, go away.

Capitals 4 – Flyers 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Games 70/71: Capitals vs. Islanders, March 15/16

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return to intra-divisional play on Thursday night when they open a back-to-back, home-and-home set against the New York Islanders in Brooklyn before wrapping up the set in Washington on Friday.

The Capitals will be looking to stretch their winning streak to three games, the first time since their five-game streak to close 2017 and open 2018.  This is the fourth time they carried consecutive wins into a game since that streak without having reached a third consecutive win.

The Isles, who have been idle since Sunday, are seeing their playoff hopes sink into something resembling more an atoll, as in “the Islanders have no chance…atoll” of reaching the postseason.  No chance would be a bit strong, since the Isles do remain eight points out of the second wild card spot and three teams to pass.  But at this time of year, making up such a margin is difficult. 

Things have not been made easier for the Islanders having to endure an eight-game losing streak (0-4-4) before they snapped it on Sunday with a 5-2 win in Calgary against the Flames.  It was a tough run for New York, who spent seven of those nine games on the road and have not played consecutive games on home ice in a month (and won’t until this series is over, after which they have a five-game home stand).

Offense has become an issue for the Islanders, who until they exploded for five goals against Calgary had scored more than three goals in 12 consecutive games.  As it is, including the win over Calgary, the Islanders have been outscored by a 36-31 margin over their last 13 games over which they have a record of 3-6-4, two of those wins coming via shutout.

Over those 13 games, Jordan Eberle has managed to maintain a productive level of output.  His five goals lead the club over that span.  In his first season in Brooklyn after spending his first seven NHL seasons in Edmonton, his 24 goals this season are third on the team, one of three Islanders with at least 20 goals this season (Anders Lee (33) and John Tavares (31) are the others).  Eberle is among the more consistent and reliable goal scorers in the NHL, having hit the 20-goal mark in each of his last six full NHL seasons (not including the abbreviated 2012-2013 season in which he had 16 in 48 games).  Eberle does it in the context of gentlemanly play.  He has just 137 career penalty minutes in 575 games (by way of comparison, Tom Wilson has 164 penalty minutes this season in 65 games) and has received votes for the Lady Byng Trophy five times in the last six seasons.  This season, Eberle has also been consistent in home and road situations with 24 points in 31 road games (11-13-24) and 24 points in 37 road games (13-11-24).  Eberle is 1-3-4, minus-3, in 11 career games against Washington.

Nick Leddy has established himself as a durable, productive defenseman.  Over the last five seasons, including this one, only five defensemen have played in more games than Leddy (391): Karl Alzner (398), Keith Yandle (397, Drew Doughty (394), Brent Seabrook (393), and Ryan Suter (393).  He has 194 points over that span, putting him in position to be the 22^nd defenseman in that span to hit 200 points overall.  His 151 goals puts him among the top-20 in that statistic.  This season, Leddy is a top-20 performer in goals (10/T-12th) and points (40/T-18th).  Although his ten goals leads Islander defensemen this season, how he got there is a bit odd.  Leddy scored six goals in the Islanders’ first 22 games this season, the last being an overtime game-winner in a 5-4 win over Philadelphia on November 24^th.  Then, he went 30 games without a goal before finding the back of the net in a 4-3 win over Columbus on February 3^rd.  Starting with that game, Leddy has four goals in his last 17 games, although he did manage to go a dozen straight without one in that span, a streak stopped when he scored against Calgary on Sunday.  On the other hand, Leddy is minus-30, the second worst plus-minus among 293 defensemen to dress in the NHL this season.  Leddy is 1-5-6, minus-2, in 19 career games against the Caps.

So, who is it going to be in goal?  Jaroslav Halak hasn’t been the answer.  His .908 save percentage ranks 25th among 37 goalies with at least 1,500 minutes played this season.  And, since shutting out the New York Rangers, stopping all 50 shots he faced in a 3-0 win on February 15^th, he is 0-4-2, 3.67, .870 in six appearances.  Thomas Greiss has not been a very effective backup, either, his 11-7-2 record being more the product of goal support than his own performance (3.84/.891).  What is more, his season cleaves into two neat halves of 12 appearances apiece.  In his first dozen games he was 8-2-2, 3.34, .903.  In his last dozen appearances he is 3-5-0, 4.41, .879 with one shutout and four no-decisions, although his last outing was a 45-save shutout of the Carolina Hurricanes back on February 16^th.  He hasn’t played since then, out of the lineup with a leg injury suffered in the win over the Hurricanes.

That leaves Christopher Gibson, who had been playing with Bridgeport in the AHL until Greiss’ injury.  Gibson has three appearances, all of them this month, and he has yet to lose a decision in regulation (1-0-2).  He lost in overtime to the Pittsburgh Penguins, 3-2, stopping 47 of 50 shots, on March 3^rd.  He followed that with a Gimmick loss to the Edmonton Oilers, allowing only one goal on 36 shots before succumbing in the freestyle phase.  That he would allow the game-winner to Sidney Crosby against the Pens and the shootout winner to Connor McDavid against Edmonton hardly seems fair, or his fault.  In his last outing he got his first win this season, stopping 50 of 52 shots in the 5-2 win over Calgary on Sunday.  It was the first time a rookie Islander goalie recorded 50 or more saves since Billy Smith made 55 saves in a 5-3 loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on November 22, 1972, in the Islanders’ inaugural season.  Gibson has faced the Caps once, stopping 29 of 32 shots in 4-3 overtime win on April 5^th last season.

1.  Only two teams in the league have more bench minor penalties than the Islanders (11): Colorado (12) and Ottawa (14).

2.  The Islanders have a worse winning percentage in one-goal games (.414/12-7-10) than they do in any other kind of decision (.467/7-8 in two-goal games and .440/11-14 in decisions of three or more goals).

3.  Only Vegas (154), Toronto (158), and Tampa Bay (168) have more 5-on-5 goals scored than the Islanders (153). Then again, no team has allowed more 5-on-5 goals than the Isles (159, tied with Ottawa).

4.  The Islanders are a team that can get off to fast starts – their 63 first period goals rank tied for seventh in the league.   Trouble is, other teams get fast starts, too. The Islanders have allowed 70 first period goals, third-most in the league. The second period is even worse, goals allowed-wise. The 88 goals New York allowed in the second periods of games is second-most in the league (Ottawa: 89).

5.  Outshooting opponents is not the Islanders’ thing, and even when they do it, they are not successful. Only Anaheim has outshot opponents less often (20 times) than the Islanders (22 times), and New York’s seven wins when doing so is tied for fewest wins in the league (with Vancouver).

1.  This will be the Capitals’ 13th and next to last back-to-back set of games of the regular season. It is the second back-to-back set played against a single opponent. They split a pair of decisions against the Carolina Hurricanes in Games 44 and 45 on January 11-12, losing the first game, 3-1, at home, and then winning by a 4-3 margin in Carolina.

2.  Washington swept only one of their first 12 back-to-backs, beating Tampa Bay at home, 3-1, in Game 24 on November 24th, and then going to Toronto and knocking off the Maple Leafs, 4-2, in Game 25 the following night.

3.  The Caps lost both ends of a back-to-back twice this season. The first came in Games 36-37 in mid-December when they lost at Arizona in overtime, 3-2, and then dropped a 3-0 decision to Vegas. The second time came in January in Games 46-47 when Washington lost to New Jersey, 4-3, in overtime in Newark, and then they lost to Montreal at home the following night, 3-2.

4.  The Caps are 6-3-3 in the opening game of back-to-backs this season, 5-7-0 in the back half of those sets.

5.  Washington is 5-4-0 at home in back-to-back sets, 6-6-3 in road games in those sets. The Caps have not had both ends of a back-to-back at home this season; they had one in which both games were played on the road, that being in their first one in Games 5-6 back in October. They won in New Jersey against the Devils, 5-2, and then they were pasted by the Flyers in Philadelphia, 8-2.

Here is the complete history to date of the first dozen Caps back-to-back games (from hockey-reference.com; click for a larger image):

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Mathew Barzal

In this year’s rookie class, no skater is close to Mathew Barzal in the points race.  With 69 points in 69 games, he is 14 points clear of Vancouver’s Brock Boeser (likely out for the season with an injured back), and he is the only rookie having appeared in more than five games this season averaging at least one point per game (Boeser is next at 0.89 points per game).  And while he has a bit of an issue of consistency, he has not showed signs of slowing down.  Consider his last 17 games.  He has points in only eight of those contests, but he also has five multi-point games in that stretch, including a five-point (all assists) night in a 7-6 overtime win over the Detroit Red Wings on February 9^th.  Perhaps uncommonly for a rookie, his production has not been weighted to either home or road bias.  He is 8-27-35 in 32 home games and 10-24-34 in 37 road games this season.  He is not off to a great start in March, though.  After four straight months with at least 12 points, Barzan has only two points in five games in March.  Then again, there is that whole scoring-points-in-bunches” thing lurking.  In three career games against the Caps, Barzal is 0-1-1, plus-1.

Washington: Chandler Stephenson

There was a fair amount of attention and trepidation last fall as the season dawned as to whether the Washington Capitals could be successful with a pair of rookie defensemen – Madison Bowey and Christian Djoos – getting significant minutes. Less attention was paid to the fact that the Caps lost a very productive fourth liner in Daniel Winnik without a clear cut candidate to replace him on a checking line. The Caps might have come around to a solution to that matter in Chandler Stephenson. Before this season, Stephenson dressed in just 13 games over two seasons, spending most of the last four years skating with the Hershey Bears. However, he has managed to work his way into getting a sweater on a regular basis this season, and it has paid off in terms of his being a player to watch going forward.

Despite playing in just 55 of the Caps’ 69 games this season, Stephenson is tied for 34th in points in his rookie class (16). His plus-11 is tied for fifth among rookies, and only four rookies having recorded at least 25 shots have a better shooting percentage than he does (17.8). It is that last statistic that is, well, odd. So far this season, 74 rookies have appeared in at least 25 games. Of that group, Stephenson has fewer shots on goal per game (0.51) than any of that group save for Colorado’s Anton Lindholm, who happens to be a defenseman (0.47). One might expect that this will be a part of his game that is expressed later in his development. But one thing he did just fine against Winnipeg the other night was break up a potential scoring chance for the Jets late in overtime that led to the Caps’ final rush and Evgeny Kuznetsov’s game-winning breakaway goal. That kind of hustle will always find a place in the lineup. Stephenson has three assists and is plus-4 in two career games against the Islanders.

In the end…

By the time the Capitals take the ice on Thursday night to open this back-to-back set with the Islanders, they could find themselves once more looking up in the standings at the Pittsburgh Penguins, who visit the Rangers in New York on Wednesday night. It makes these games against a weaker opponent important to win. Eight points behind the second wild card spot with 13 games to play gives the Islanders faint hope at best, and less and less to play for with each passing game. Tack on the fact that the Isles are losers of eight of their last nine decisions, and the Caps have to jump on them and stand on their throats. Doing it on consecutive nights in the NHL is not an easy task, but this is the part of the remaining schedule that gives the Caps a bit of a break. They need to take advantage of it.

Thursday: Capitals 4 – Islanders 3

Friday: Capitals 5 – Islanders 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 69: Jets at Capitals, March 12th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals, fresh off a win over the San Jose Sharks to wrap up a 1-2-0 California trip, return home on Monday night to host the Winnipeg Jets.  The game kicks off an odd stretch of the schedule for the Caps, who will alternate home and road games over a five-game stretch before a three-game road trip at the end of the month.

If it has not occurred to you by now, these are not your father’s Winnipeg Jets (or Atlanta Thrashers, for that matter).  The Jets come into this game with 41 wins this season in 68 games.  Only two teams in franchise history – the 2006-2007 Thrashers and the 2014-2015 Jets – finished a season with more wins, 43 in both instances.  Their 91 standings points are fifth best in the league as of Sunday morning.

And this is as complete a team as there is in the league, a top-five team in scoring offense (3.31 goals per game/4^th), scoring defense (2.60/5^th), and power play (24.4 percent/2^nd); and they are just outside the group in penalty killing (82.9 percent/T-6^th).

They Jets have been a dominating club on the road over almost two months, going 8-1-1 in nine road games dating back to January 20^th.  They have done it largely with defense and goaltending, holding opponents to two or fewer goals in six of those nine road contests, including two shutouts.  Steve Mason has one of those shutouts, a 31-save win over the New York Rangers on March 6^th.  The other shutout, and the lion’s share of the road work over this stretch, was authored by Connor Hellebuyck, who is 5-1-1, 1.96, .944, and that one shutout (34 saves in a 4-0 over St. Louis on February 23^rd) over this nine-game road stretch.  Hellebuyck, in his third season with Winnipeg, has appeared in 56 games to date, tying his career high set last season.  His 35 wins so far almost doubles his win total over his first two seasons (39 in 82 games), and his .923 save percentage overall is a career best.  He has six shutouts this season, third most in the league and doubling his total over his first two seasons.  In three career games against the Caps, Hellebuyck is 2-1-0, 2.26, .924.

Blake Wheeler leads the Jets in overall scoring this season (18-58-76, ninth in the league in points), and he has been particularly productive since his last set of consecutive games without a point in late January.  Over his last 18 games he is 4-18-22 and has not gone consecutive games without a point (the last time he did was in late January), recording points in 14 of those 18 games.  Wheeler, who has established himself firmly as a 25-goal a year scorer (average of 26.5 goals over his last four seasons), is not quite scoring at that pace – he is on a pace to finish with 22 goals – but his points production is solid.  With 76 points in 68 games, he is on a pace to finish 92 points, which would eclipse his current career high of 78 points in 2015-2016.  Wheeler is 5-12-17, plus-6, in 32 career games against the Caps.

The Jets get substantial contributions on offense from their blue line.  Eight of the nine defensemen to have dressed for the Jets this season have goals, and six of them have at least ten points.  Tyler Myers leads the group in goals with six.  Myers, who won the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie in 2009-2010 with the Buffalo Sabres, went into decline as an offensive contributor over his next five seasons and was eventually traded to the Jets in February 2015 with Drew Stafford, Joel Armia, Brendan Lemieux, and a first round draft pick for Evander Kane, Zach Bogosian, and Jason Kasdorf.  If the winner of a trade is the team that ends up with the best player, Buffalo (getting Evander Kane) might have been looked at early on as the winner.  Things have not turned out that way.  Kane is now in San Jose, Bogosian has been injury prone, and Kasdorf has one game in goal for the Sabres on his resume (that coming in 2015-2016; he currently plays in the ECHL with Cincinnati). 

Drew Stafford has since moved on (currently in New Jersey with the Devils), but Joel Armia has 11 goals and 25 points for the Jets.  And while Jack Roslovic (taken with that first round pick) has just 26 games with the Jets this season, and Lemieux is in the AHL, Myers has resurrected his career on the blue line.  His 34 points in 68 games is the most he has in a season since he had 37 points in his 2010-2011 sophomore season in the league.  The odd part of his season in his offensive statistics is that with six goals on 116 shots, his 5.2 percent shooting is the worst of his career to date.  However, when he gets a point, the Jets win.  They are 20-3-1 in games this season when Myers recorded a point.  He is 2-4-6, minus-1, in 20 career games against Washington.

1.  Only Carolina has fewer major penalties (seven) than the Jets (seven).

2.  The Jets are tied with Toronto for the most wins in the league when leading after one period (24), and they lead the league in wins outright when leading after two periods (33).

3.  Blowouts are the Jets’ thing.  They have 21 wins this season by three or more goals, tops in the league.  In fact, 31 of the Jet’s 68 decisions are by three or more goals (10 losses).  No team has more such decisions.

4.  In the Western Conference, only Vegas has more 5-on-5 goals scored (153) than Winnipeg (146).  No Western team has more 5-on-4 goals scored (49), and no team in the league has more 5-on-3 goals scored (five, tied with Pittsburgh).

5.  Winnipeg is tied with Toronto for most first period goals scored (76).  The Jets and Tampa Bay are the only teams with more than 70 goals scored in each of the regulations periods this season.  Winnipeg and San Jose are the only teams having allowed 60 or fewer goals in each of the regulation periods this season.

1.  Only Carolina and Arizona have fewer shorthanded goals scored this season (two apiece) than Washington (three).

2.  The Caps have averaged more penalty minutes per game (10:01) than any team in the Eastern Conference except the Florida Panthers (11:38).

3.  Washington has taken fewer faceoffs (4,025) than all but two teams, Colorado (4,018) and Carolina (3,922).

4.  Washington has outshot opponents 22 times this season.  Only Anaheim has done it fewer times (20).

5.  The Caps do very well when scoring first.  Their .800 winning percentage is fourth in the league.  They should do it more often; their 24 wins rank tied for 14^th.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Winnipeg: Patrik Laine

Patrik Laine, more than any player in the game today (with the possible exception of Toronto’s Auston Matthews), appears to have the skill, hunger, and years ahead of him to challenge and eventually supplant Alex Ovechkin as the league’s most dominant goal scorer.  The second overall pick in the 2016 entry draft comes into this game tied with Ovechkin for the league lead in goals scored (40) and has more goals over the past two seasons (76) than any player in the league.  And he is coming into this game on fire.  Laine has goals in his last five games (nine in all), including a hat trick in a 3-0 win over the New York Rangers on March 6^th, and in ten of his last 11 contests (15 goals).  He has goals in each of his last seven road games (11 goals).  He is a remarkably efficient shooter.  Among 301 skaters having recorded at least 100 shots on goal this season, Laine is second in shooting percentage (20.4) to Vegas’ William Karlsson (23.5).  He has yet to record a point in three career games against the Caps and is a minus-6.

Washington: Lars Eller

When Lars Eller fired the puck into an empty net late in the Capitals’ 2-0 win in San Jose over the Sharks on Saturday, it was his 100th career goal and snapped a five-game streak without one after putting together a three-game goal streak.  It was his 15^th goal this season, inching him closer to his career high of 16 he had with the Montreal Canadiens in 2011-2012.  It is part of a consistent run of seasons for Eller who, if you consider the 14-goal pace he was on in the abbreviated 2012-2013 season has finished with totals between 12 and 16 goals in each of the last six seasons before this one.  His contributions being of the secondary scoring sort this season, it is helpful to note that when he did record a point in a game this season, the Caps are 17-8-1, while they are just 21-14-6 when he did not.  And, as one might expect with most players, he has been much more productive on home ice, going 11-10-21, plus-10 at Capital One Arena (4-8-12, minus-7 on the road).  Eller is 6-6-12, plus-4, in 18 career games against Winnipeg.

In the end…

More than most teams the Caps have played this season, the Jets are as complete a team as can be found in the NHL these days.  What the Caps can’t let the Jets do is “get to four.”  When Winnipeg scores four or more goals this season, they are 30-2-1.  They have just enough defense to keep from losing high-scoring games.  But those games are usually blowouts for the Jets.  At the other end of the spectrum, the Jets have not lost a game when allowing one or no goals (20-0-0), but when allowing two or more, they are just 21-18-9.  So, for the Caps the task will be grinding out a low scoring game against this club.  Washington has allowed two or fewer goals in each of their last three home games, their longest such streak in the 2018 portion of the season (they had a five-game home streak in December).  If they can make it four, they win.

Capitals 3 – Jets 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 23

When you expect disappointment, realizing it does not do much to assuage it.  Week 23 was “California Week” on the schedule of the Washington Capitals, a week looked upon with dread by Caps fans annually.  It just has not been a very hospitable venue for the Caps over the years.  And so, when the Caps lost the first two games on the trip, it was merely more of the same.  And then came Saturday, and for a moment, things didn’t look quite as, well, disappointing.

Record: 1-2-0

Coming into this season, the Capitals had a grim history in California, going 28-52-8 with two ties.  Their more recent history was a bit more complex.  Since the dark 2004-2005 season, the Caps came into this season with a 9-12-2 record in the Golden State.  However, six of those wins were earned against the Anaheim Ducks, the first six games the Caps played in Anaheim coming out of that missed season.  They suffered their first loss in the post-lockout era last March when they dropped a 5-2 decision.  The Ducks made it two in a row with a 4-0 shutout on Tuesday to get the trip off to a rough start.

Then came the Los Angeles Kings.  The Caps went into that game with a 15-32-6 all-time record in LA with a pair of ties.  It was even worse in the post-2004-2005 season period, with the Caps recording only one win, that coming in their first visit to Los Angeles, post-lockout.  Since then, going into Thursday’s game, the Caps lost seven in a row (two in extra time).  The Caps made it eight losses in a row with a 3-1 loss.

Then came the ne plus ultra of disappointment, regular season edition.  The Caps went to San Jose to face the Sharks in the last game of the trip.  In 19 visits to San Jose, the Caps had five wins.  However, three of them came in their first three visits, all in regulation.  They were the last and only wins in regulation in San Jose, going back to October 1993. Since then, they were 2-13-1, both wins coming in extra time, coming in consecutive visits in 2014 and 2015.  But the sun does not shine on the same dog’s backside (or the same Shark) every day.  The Caps ended their run of despair to close the trip and the week with a pleasantly surprising 2-0 shutout to re-capture the top spot in the Metropolitan Division at the end of Week 23.

Offense: 1.00 /game (season: 2.99 /game, rank: 12th)

This week’s offense could be documented on a postage stamp.  The best that could be said for it was that it improved from game to game, from getting shut out to scoring one goal to scoring a pair in the win to end the week.  

No Capital had more than one goal – Lars Eller, Jakub Vrana, and Nicklas Backstrom lighting the red lamp.  No Capital had more than one point, six other players with assists.

If there was anything odd about the scoring, other than the utter lack of it, it was that four of the six assists for the week were recorded by defensemen – Brooks Orpik, Matt Niskanen, Dmitry Orlov, and John Carlson.

The forwards had an interesting week in a couple of odd ways.  Travis Boyd got a sweater for the third time this season when he skated against the San Jose Sharks.  That made two of three games he played this season coming against San Jose.  He did not record a shot on goal, one of three Caps not to do so in Week 23.  The others were Alex Chiasson (in one game) and Chandler Stephenson, who appeared in two games without a shot on goal.  That makes 32 games in 54 this season in which he did not record a shot on goal.

Defense: 2.33 / game (season: 2.93 /game, rank: 16th)

If not for the anemic offense, the defense would have been hailed as having a good week, even with allowing four goals to the Ducks in the first game of the week.  Washington allowed the three California opponents a total of just 71 shots on goal, none of them reaching the 30-shot mark.  It is the first time that the Caps allowed opponents fewer than 30 shots in three straight games since Games 30-32 when they allowed the New York Rangers, New York Islanders, and Colorado Avalanche a total of 82 shots.  It is the third time this season that the Caps allowed fewer than 30 shots in three consecutive games, and it is the lowest total of shots allowed in any three consecutive games this season.

If anything, the game against Anaheim was the most disappointing from a defensive standpoint.  Not in the particulars – the Caps allowed the Ducks only 18 shots on goal – but in the results.  Anaheim scored on their first shot 84 seconds into the game and on three of their first nine shots before Braden Holtby was relieved in goal.  That the Caps held the Ducks to nine shots in the first 25:37 of the game had to be, purely on its own merits, thought of in positive terms.

The Caps returned briefly to their shot-allowing ways against the Kings in the middle game of the week, allowing 14 first period shots on goal.  But holding them to a total of 14 shots over the final two periods was a welcome development, despite the loss.

What characterized the Caps’ grisly performances in San Jose over the recent history of the series was an inability to stop the Sharks’ offense.   In nine games since the 2004-2005 dark season, the Caps allowed 39 goals (4.33 per game) and allowed five or more four times.  In the entire history of the series spanning 40 games going into Saturday, the Caps had never shut out the Sharks and allowed only as few as one goal three times, each of them in Washington.  Only four times had the Caps allowed the Sharks 24 or fewer shots in games played in San Jose.  That the Caps got the shutout and allowed only 24 shots on goal made for a fine end to the week.

Goaltending: 1.70 / .928 / 1 shutout (season: 2.77 / .913 / 2 shutouts)

Washington thrives on controversy, whether political, quarterbacks, or now, goaltenders.  Braden Holtby has been in a prolonged slump, and it got no better for him in Week 23. He allowed three goals on nine shots in 25 minutes and change to the Anaheim Ducks before being relieved for the third time in six appearances.  After the game, the word came that Holtby would be given some time to “settle his game.” 

Enter Philipp Grubauer.  After a grisly start to the season in which he lost his first six decisions over eight games (all of them losses), he rebounded to go 8-2-2, 1.73, .944, with one shutout over 16 appearances going into Week 23.  He continued that run of fine play in his three appearances this week, stopping all eight shots he faced in relief of Holtby on Tuesday, stopping 26 of 28 shots against the Kings in the middle game of the week, and then turning aside all 24 shot he faced in the 2-0 shutout of the Sharks on Saturday, his second shutout of the season. It left Grubauer 9-3-2, 1.59, .947, with two shutouts over his last 19 appearances.

Power Play: 0-for-6 / 0.0 percent (season: 21.8 percent, rank: 6th)

Few chances, few shots, no goals.  Week 23 was not a good week for the man advantage, the fifth time this season that the Caps went a week without a power play goal and the first time since they went 0-for-2 in Week 14, one in which they played only one game.

It truly was a bizarre week on the power play. Alex Ovechkin did not record a shot on goal in 11:32 of power play ice time.  The Caps did not have a single power play opportunity in their win over the Sharks to end the week, the third time this season the Caps went without one and the first since they were denied any opportunities in a 3-2 overtime win over the Anaheim Ducks on October 28^th.  The Caps won all three games this season in which they did not get a power play chance.

It was not as if the Caps put a lot of pressure on opponents when they did get their chances.  Six shots on goal in 11:59 of power play ice time is not a very efficient level of pressure.  Only one of those shots on goal came from a defenseman (Dmitry Orlov), while T.J. Oshie and Evgeny Kuznetsov “led” the team with a pair of shots apiece. Brett Connolly had the other one.

Penalty Killing: 3-for-4 / 75.0 percent (season: 79.8 percent, rank: 18th)

What was good for the goose was good for the gander, special teams-wise.  The Caps faced only four shorthanded situations all week, the fewest since they faced four (in just one game) in Week 14. Only in Week 9 did they face fewer power plays (two in two games).

It did not start off very well, the Caps allowing a goal on the first shot – and the first power play shot – they faced for the week, the Ducks’ Adam Henrique scoring just 84 seconds into the 4-0 Anaheim win on Tuesday.  The Caps shut out the Ducks from any further opportunities, and then they went on to kill the last three shorthanded situations for the week, allowing only three shots on goal in 5:59 over those three situations.

The three games this week allowing two or fewer power plays to opponents brought the streak to four games, tying the Caps’ longest streak of the season, that coming in Games 25-28.  Coincidentally, perhaps, three of those games were against opponents in this current streak – San Jose and Los Angeles in this week’s set of games, and the Toronto Maple Leafs, against whom the Caps started the streak in their Stadium Series game win in Week 22.

Faceoffs: 80-for-161 / 49.7 percent (season: 50.3 percent, rank: 13th)

Strange week in the circle.  Overall, one faceoff loss under 50 percent doesn’t seem like much, but the Caps were all over the place getting there.  They sandwiched good games against Anaheim (54.7 percent) and San Jose (62.3 percent) around an awful game in Los Angeles (32.7 percent).  In that game against the Kings, it was not quite as bad as the overall numbers suggested, though.  They did win 11 of 22 defensive zone draws, but they were shut out entirely in the neutral zone, losing all 13 draws in center ice.

That neutral zone blanking led to the only under-50 percent zone result for the week, the Caps finishing 19-for-47 (40.4 percent).  They did manage to win in the ends, going 32-for-63 (50.8 percent) in the offensive zone and 29-for-51 (56.9 percent) in the defensive zone.

Individually, it was a rough week for the pair of skaters at the top of the draws-taken list, Evgeny Kuznetsov (18-for-41/43.9 percent) and Nicklas Backstrom (16-for-39/41.0 percent) finishing under 50 percent.  The other two with at least ten draws taken finished over 50 percent for the week – Lars Eller (18-for-34/52.9 percent) and Jay Beagle (19-for-30/63.3 percent).

Goals by Period:

The Caps just could not get started in the first periods of games, failing to record a first period goal for the entire week, the first time since Week 3 (also in three games) that the Caps were shut out in the first periods of games.  It matters, given that the Caps have the best record in the league when leading games at the first intermission (22-0-1/.957).  And when the Caps allowed three goals in the first period over the first two games, it was a hole out of which they could not dig.

Not that the scoring was much better in the periods that followed, but there was an odd aspect to it.  The Caps held their opponents even in the second periods of games for the week at two goals apiece.  It was the third period that was strange.  The week featured three third period goals, two for opponents and one for the Caps, all of them being empty net goals.

As it is, the Caps now have negative goal differentials in the first and third periods of games for the season and a positive goal differential in the middle period, contrary to much of the season’s narrative in this category that the Caps struggle in the second periods of games.

In the end…

Well, it could have been worse.  Last season, the Caps went to California and lost all three games by a combined 13-6 margin.  This season they went 1-2-0 and were outscored 7-3.  Last season they were just 12-for-17 killing penalties out west; this season they were 3-for-4.  They posted their first ever shutout over the San Jose Sharks and recorded their first win in regulation there in more than 24 years.  And, they finished the week still at the top of the Metropolitan Division.  All in all, it was not as disappointing a week as it could have been, even if the best thing to be said about it is that California is in the rear view mirror.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Philipp Grubauer (1-1-0, 0.79, .967, one shutout)
• Second Star: Lars Eller (1-0-1, even, 10 shots on goal, 16 shot attempts, 52.9 percent faceoffs, 100^th career goal)
• Third Star: Nicklas Backstrom (1-0-1, minus-2, game-winning goal)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 68: Capitals at Sharks, March 10th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Horace Greeley is credited with famously remarking, “go west, young man.” The rest of the quote goes, “go west, and grow up with the country.” For the Washington Capitals, the rest of the quote might read instead, “go west, and play with all the aroma of a week-old fish taco.”

After losing two games on their three-game trip west, and scoring just one goal in 120 minutes, the Caps wrap up their journey with a visit to San Jose on Saturday to take on the Sharks. For you Caps fans of recent vintage, San Jose is not exactly saving the best part of the trip for last. Here is the complete history of the Caps in “The Capital of Silicon Valley, (seriously, that’s the town’s motto)” courtesy of the folks at hockey-reference.com:

The Caps are facing this considerable head wind while trying to end what is now a four-game road losing streak in which they have been outscored, 15-4. Their lone win in their last six road contests was a 3-2 squeaker over the Buffalo Sabres, and if one goes back one more road game, to the 7-1 pasting they took at the hands of the Chicago Blackhawks, the Caps are 1-5-0 in their last six road games and have been outscored, 24-8.

Meanwhile, the Sharks “streak” on. As in, goes hot and cold, often. They started calendar year 2018 with a win in Montreal over the Canadiens, but here is their record since, broken into their streaks:

• 0-1-2
• 3-0-0
• A loss
• 2-0-0
• 0-2-2
• 2-0-0
• 0-2-0
• 2-0-0
• A loss
• 3-0-0
• 0-2-1
• 2-0-0

Only in their last two games – a loss to Columbus and a win over St. Louis in their last outing – have they given any recent indication of breaking the spell for good (or bad).

The Sharks are a very average team on offense (2.90 goals per game/15th in scoring offense on Friday morning), and they have but one 20-goal scorer at the moment. That would be Logan Couture, who appears to be breaking free of some recent history. He recorded 30-goal seasons in his first two full years in the league, finishing second in the Calder Trophy voting in his rookie year, and he had 21 goals in the 48-game abbreviated 2012-2013 season. However, in four seasons since, he did not record more than 27 goals and averaged 27.1 goals per 82 games played. He was a reliable mid-20’s goal scorer, but not elite in that class of player. And, he was injury prone, missing 56 games over those four seasons to a variety of injuries (hand, lower body, fractured leg, and mouth among them).

This season, however, Couture has dressed for 63 of the Sharks’ 67 games, missing four games in December to a concussion. In those 63 games he has 27 goals and is on a pace (33) to eclipse his career best of 32 goals in his rookie season of 2010-2011. He has been like the club as a whole, a bit on the streaky side. Couture has had six separate instances this season when he scored goals in two or more consecutive games, two of them coming in his last eight games when he alternated consecutive games with goals and consecutive games without them. If the pattern holds, he will pot one against the Caps, having gone without one in his last two contests. Couture is 4-6-10, plus-1, in 12 career games against Washington.

Brent Burns is a helper. Only Dallas’ John Klingberg has more assists this season among defensemen (49) than Burns (43, tied with Erik Karlsson). Not that this should be surprising; Burns has topped 40 assists in each of the last four seasons, including this one. What he is on a pace to do, though, is top 50 assists for the first time in his career. What has dropped off, from last year to this, is his goal scoring. Burns finished last season with a league-high, career-best 29 goals. This season he has only 10 in 67 games. At even strength, the drop-off is from 21 goals to five. Earlier this season he went 21 games between even-strength goals, and while he did have a pair in February, he does not have one since February 15th in a 4-1 win over the Vancouver Canucks. It was his last goal of any kind, his streak having reached nine games without one. Burns is 6-9-15, plus-2, in 15 career games against the Caps.

Martin Jones is one of those under the radar sorts of goaltenders. Maybe it’s playing on the west coast with all those late starts, and perhaps it’s he has a dull name…”Martin Jones”…not even with the French pronunciation of “Martin” (mar-TANH) like that of Martin Brodeur. But here is your odd Martin Jones fact of the day. Only Braden Holtby and Jones have received Vezina Trophy votes as the league’s top goaltender in each of the past two seasons. That’s right. Not Carey Price (once), not Sergei Bobrovsky (once), not Henrik Lundqvist (not at all). And over those two seasons, plus this one, Jones has the sixth-best goals against average among the 41 goalies with at least 5,000 minutes played (2.37, better than Holtby’s 2.38), and only three goalies have more shutouts than his 12 (Devan Dubnyk, Pekka Rinne, and Tuukka Rask each have 14). But there is the matter of shots faced. He doesn’t generally face a heavy volume, an average of 28.1 per 60 minutes over those two-plus seasons. Only 21 times in 177 games played over that span has Jones faced 35 or more shots in a game. He has been effective lately, going 7-3-1, 2.00, .935, with one shutout. Jones is 4-1-0, 2.35, .921, with two shutouts in five career appearances against the Caps.

1.  San Jose might have a lack of top-end goal scoring this season, but they do spread the points around. Of the 26 skaters to dress for the Sharks this season, 19 have at least ten points. Paul Martin is the only one of the 26 not to score at all (no points in three games). Even Eric Fehr – yes, that Eric Fehr – has a point (as in one, in six games).

2.  More on spreading things around. The Sharks have 17 different players with game-winning goals. Mikkel Boedker leads with four. No Shark with more than three goals scored this season is without a game-winner.

3.  Get a lead on this team. San Jose is one of only two teams in the Western Conference (St. Louis is the other) not to have lost a game in regulation when leading after two periods this season. They are 25-0-2 in such games.

4.  Winning when trailing after two periods is a heavy lift in the NHL, but best not to test one’s luck holding off the Sharks. Only Vegas and Los Angeles have more wins when trailing after two periods (six apiece) than the Sharks (five).

5.  The Sharks own possession in tight games. They are third in the league in shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 in tied games (53.23; Nashville: 53.86, and Carolina: 54.23), and they are fifth in close games (52.23).

1.  And now, a glimpse at the difference between “efficient” and “effective.” The Capitals have 19 players who have skated in at least 41 games this season. Of that number, 12 have shooting percentages over 10 percent. This is “efficient.” The Caps are averaging 3.00 goals per game. That ranks 12th in the league in scoring offense. This is not particularly ”effective.”

2.  The Caps have not been quite as blessed, health-wise, as last season, but they have had good fortune in one respect. Of the five players who regularly skate as top-six forwards (Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson, and T.J. Oshie), the group has missed a total of 16 games, six of them by Oshie.

3.  Alex Ovechkin has almost lapped the field in terms of shots on goal on this roster. He has almost 100 more shots on goal (284) than John Carlson (187) and 132 more than the next highest forward (Kuznetsov…go figure…with 152).

4.  Caps road work needs, well, work. Only four skaters have a positive plus-minus in away games this season, and one of them (Taylor Chorney, club-best plus-5) is gone. Ovechkin is plus-4, Dmitry Orlov is plus-2, and Christian Djoos is plus-2. The odd ducks in this statistic?   Matt Niskanen (plus-18 at home, even on the road) and Lars Eller (plus-10 at home, minus-8 on the road).

5.  Overtime is a fickle creature. The Caps were 9-3 in their first dozen games settled in extra time this season. However, they are 0-4 in their last four, part of the 10-10-4 slump they are in since January 9th, when they won a third straight game. Since that time, the Caps are one of only three teams in the league without an extra time win (Carolina and Montreal are the others).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

San Jose: Joe Pavelski

Every so often an NHL player is held up as being the next rival for Alex Ovechkin’s dominance in goal scoring in the NHL. Corey Perry was one such player after he led the league with 50 goals in 2010-2011. He faded, having just one season with more than 35 goals in his last six years (including this one, in which he has just 14). Steven Stamkos was another after he had two 50-goal seasons in three years, the latter the first with 60 goals since Ovechkin did it with 65 in 2007-2008. Joe Pavelski did not have quite the top-end sort of season Ovechkin or the others had, but he established himself over a five-year period among the most reliable goal scorers in the league. From 2011-2012 through 2015-2016, Pavelski recorded 163 goals, third behind only Ovechkin (224) and Stamkos (193). However, he dropped to 29 goals last season, the first time since 2010-2011 that he did not finish a full season with at least 30 goals, and he has 18 in 67 games this season, a pace to finish with 22. Since he scored two goals in each of two consecutive games in early February, he has four in his last 12 games. If there is something to beware of with Pavelski, it is that all of his 11 multi-point games this season have come on home ice. Pavelski is 8-9-17, plus-6, in 16 career games against Washington.

Washington: John Carlson

John Carlson has made the top-ten rankings among defensemen in the NHL this season his own personal playground. As of Friday morning, Carlson’s rankings included:

• Goals: 12 (T-6th)
• Assists: 41 (T-4th)
• Points: 53 (T-2nd)
• Multi-Point Games: 12 (T-5th)
• Shots on Goal: 187 (8th)
• Power Play Goals: 4 (T-7th)
• Power Play Points: 25 (T-1st)
• Power Play Shots-on-Goal: 54 (T-5th)
• Power Play Minutes: 248:51 (1st)
• Power Play Time-on-Ice per Game: 3:42 (3rd)
• Time-on-Ice per Shift: 0:56 (T-4th)
• Total Team Goals Scored/On Ice: 102 (4th)
• Power Play Goals Scored/On Ice: 38 (3rd)
• Game-Winning Goals: 3 (T-8th)

Carlson has already tied a career high with 12 goals, and he is within two assists and two points of career highs (43 and 55, respectively, set in 82 games in 2014-2015). He has become a much more assertive player in the offensive end, demonstrated by his 384 shot attempts, just ten short of his career high of 394 in 2014-2015, a season in which he received votes for the league all-star team (finishing tenth in the voting), Norris Trophy (10th), and the Lady Byng Trophy (56th). His production has not waned as the season wore on, either. Carlson has not gone as many as three games without a point since the last three games of November. Since December 1st, his 10-25-35 scoring line is second in the league among defensemen (Brent Burns: 9-33-42), and only Burns has more power play points (18 to 15 for Carlson). He is 1-6-7, minus-4, in 12 career games against the Sharks.

In the end…

California is rarely kind to the Caps, and this year has offered no exception yet. San Jose has been an especially disagreeable host. The Caps have not won a game in regulation in San Jose since October 1993. How long ago was that? Keith Jones scored the game-winning goal. Dmitri Khristich had a two-point game. Rick Tabaracci was the goalie credited with the win. Arturs Irbe, who has since come and gone as a Capitals goaltending coach, took the loss.

The Caps have shown a certain resiliency with respect to taking back the top spot in the Metropolitan Division when they were passed. Pittsburgh now occupies that spot, one point ahead of Washington. The Caps could re-take the lead, if only for a short time (the Caps play on Saturday afternoon, the Penguins in Toronto later that evening), but more than placement, it would show evidence of life that so far on this trip has been hard to measure.

Capitals 4 – Sharks 3