The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 81: Predators at Capitals, April 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well, here we are, the last home stand of the regular season.  Eighty games in, and the Washington Capitals are secure in the knowledge that the will host a first round playoff matchup against the Philadelphia Flyers.  Or the Columbus Blue Jackets.  Or the New Jersey Devils.  Or the California Seals.  Or the Cleveland Barons. 

OK, so neither of those last two teams, and before they can entertain any of the others for the first two games of Round 1 of the postseason, there is the matter of this home stand that starts on Thursday night against the Nashville Predators.  The Preds appear to be the hockey intelligentsia’s pick as the most likely team to come out of the Western Conference for their second straight Stanley Cup final, so think of this matchup as a Stanley Cup preview.

And why not think of the Preds as the cream of the crop in the West?  This is the best team, wins and points wise, in franchise history – 51 wins and 113 points going into their last two games of the season.  They have come back to earth a bit over the last couple of weeks, though.  After peeling off a 15-game points streak (14-0-1) over a one-month period from mid-February to mid-March, the Preds are 3-4-1 in their last eight games.  That slump has been characterized by an unusual leakiness on defense and in goal.  They have been out-shot, 269-249 over that span and have allowed 27 goals in those eight games (3.38 per game).  Three times in those eight games Nashville allowed five or more goals.

It has put pressure on the offense to produce, and for Caps fans the player who instantly comes to mind is former Capitals first-round draft pick Filip Forsberg.  Despite missing 12 games this season for a variety of reasons (including a three-game suspension for committing interference on the New York Rangers’ Jimmy Vesey in February), he leads the team in points (61), power play goals (11), and overtime goals (2).  Forsberg is on the cusp of assembling his best year in this, his sixth NHL season.  He already has a career high 38 assists, he is within three points of his career best (64 in 2015-2016), the 11 power play goals are a career high.  And he drives success with his production.  Forsberg has points in 41 of the 65 games he has played this season, and the Preds are 30-7-4 in those games.  And although he is in just his sixth season with Nashville and fourth as a full time player, he is climbing the franchise history rankings.  He enters this contest fifth in team history in goals scored (114), 14^th in assists (138), ninth in points (252), 10^th in power play goals (29), tied for fourth in game-winning goals (23), second in goals per game (0.35; minimum: 100 games played), 12^th in assists per game (0.42), and fourth in points per game (0.77).  He had consecutive three-point games before being blanked in the 2-1 loss to Florida on Tuesday night.  Forsberg is 6-4-10, plus-4, in seven career games against Washington.

What Forsberg is not is the team leader in goals this season.  That lead belongs to Viktor Arvidsson, who has 29 goals so far and appears about to secure his second consecutive 30-goal season (hopefully not in this game; he had 31 last year).  His 29-31-60, plus-19 scoring line in 76 games this season looks a lot like his 31-30-61, plus-16 scoring line from last season.  And if he does get that 30^th goal this season, he would join Forsberg as the only players in Nashville history to have two 30-goal seasons (five other players have one, in addition to Arvidsson).  He has not been lighting the lamp with quite as much frequency lately, though.  Since he recorded a two-goal game in a 4-2 win at Edmonton on March 1^st, he has five goals in 16 games.  Not a big drop-off (a 26-goal pace over a full season), but some.  Arvidsson is 2-1-3, minus-1, in six career games against the Caps.

If one was thinking about Vezina Trophy finalists in mid-March, chances are that Pekka Rinne would have been among them.  Of 41 goaltenders who logged at least 1,500 minutes through March 19^th, Rinne was tied for first among them in wins (40, with Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy), third in goals against average (2.21), second in save percentage (.931), and first in shutouts (8).  He allowed as many as five goals in a game just three times.  However, in five games since then, he is 1-4-0, 3.62, .880, and he has allowed five or more goals twice.  Having it happen against the Toronto Maple Leafs, with their high-powered offense, might be categorized as “one of those things.”  Allowing six on home ice to the Buffalo Sabres in 40 minutes of work is a head scratcher.  It does not seem as if it is a case of too large a minutes burden being the case for his slump of late.  His 3,435 minutes ranks eighth in the league, and it is the sixth-highest total in his 12-year career (he played 4,169 minutes in 2011-2012).  Then again, since the dark 2004-2005 season, only five goalies age 35 or older have recorded 3,500 minute seasons (three did it twice).  Rinne turned 35 last November.  So, does head coach Peter Laviolette rest him for the final two games of the regular season to prepare for the postseason?  Rinne is 4-1-0, 2.40, .915, in five career appearances against Washington.

1.  For a team as successful as the Predators are, they spend a lot of time in the penalty box.  A lot.  The 11:18 in penalty minutes per game is tops in the league, as is the number of penalties overall (364), minor penalties (313), and misconducts (9).

2.  As one might expect with that penalty profile, the Predators have spent the most time in the league this season killing penalties (475:46).  However, they have also spent 428:58 on power plays (sixth in the league).  Still, their special teams time differential (minus-46:48) is sixth-worst in the league.

3.  Only Tampa Bay (6) has had more overtime power plays that the Predators (5).

4.  Nashville cleans up in the middle period.  Only Tampa Bay has more second period goals scored (109) than the Preds (97), and Nashville’s plus-24 goal differential in the second periods of games is topped only by the Lightning (plus-37).

5.  If Nashville scores first, that’s a problem.  The Predators lead the league in wins when scoring first in games (39).

1.  The Caps actually have a worse special teams time differential than Nashville: minus-57:22 (fourth-worst in the league).

2.  If the margin is two, that’ll do… Washington leads the league in wins by a two-goal margin (14).

3.  Winning games when trailing at the second intermission is a rare occurrence in the NHL, but even by that standard the Caps are sub-par.  They have three wins this season when trailing after two periods.  Only five teams have fewer.  On the flip side, though, only two teams have fewer losses when trailing after two periods than the Caps (18 in regulation, two in extra time).

4.  Games played by the Caps feature the fewest shots per game by both teams in the league this season (61.0), mostly a product of the Caps being last in the league in shots on goal per game (29.0).

5.  Possession has been an issue with the Caps all season, but most of the problem is the disparity in home and road 5-on-5 shot attempt numbers.  The Caps are 16^th in the league overall in home shot attempts-for at 5-on-5 (50.56), 23^rd on the road (46.10).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Nashville: Roman Josi

If Nicklas Backstrom is Capitals Nation’s pick as most underrated player in the league, the Nashville fans’ entry might be defenseman Roman Josi.  It seems he’s played his entire career in the shadow of one teammate or another.  Whether it was his first five seasons being a teammate of Shea Weber or the last two with P.K. Subban, there has been another Predator defenseman on whom a brighter light shined.  However, since he became a full-time player in the abbreviated 2012-2013 season, Josi ranks highly in his own right among NHL defensemen: games played (427/T-19^th), goals (72/7^th), assists (202/10^th), points (274/7^th), power play goals (26/8^th), game-winning goals (14/T-6^th), total minutes played (10,836/6^th), time on ice per game (25:22/7^th), and shots on goal (1,130/5^th).  But there is a curious thing about his ice time.  More of it is not necessarily a good thing.  In 31 games this season, Josi skated more than 25 minutes, and the Predators have a record in those games of just 14-10-7 (1-4-2 in the last seven instances).  Josi is 4-4-8, even, in ten career games against the Caps.

Washington:  Jakub Vrana

It has been a strange and, at times, difficult season for Jakub Vrana, especially the 2018 portion of it.  Since January 31^st, when he was out of the lineup in a 5-3 win over the Philadelphia Flyers, he has missed seven of the Caps’ 31 games and skated fewer than 12 minutes in 14 of the other 24 contests.  He has top-six skills, which does not necessarily make him a top-six player, and he certainly is not getting top-six minutes.  And it is hard to know what to make of the absences.  The Caps were 3-3-1 in those seven games he missed, but they were 10-3-1 in those 14 games in which he skated less than 12 minutes.  Whatever his ice time, the Caps could use his production in terms of second-level support and engagement on offense.  Washington is 18-5-2 in the 23 games in which Vrana recorded a point so far this season, 14-5-2 in games in which he recorded at least three shots on goal.  He, like a lot of young scorers, can be streaky, evidenced by his following up a five game stretch over which he had points in four and went 1-4-5, plus-4, with a five-game streak without a point and minus-3, a streak he could be looking to break in this contest.  In two career games against Nashville, Vrana has an assist and is even in plus-minus.

In the end…

This game is a “measuring stick” mostly in the minds of fans.  These are two teams looking to hone things in advance of their respective postseasons.  They are like the veteran pitcher who gets shelled in spring training, causing fans to think “he’s lost it,” when what he has been doing is working on a new pitch or a new wrinkle in his delivery, preparing for when the games matter more.  Both teams will be looking to play the “right way” to establish good habits before the first round of the playoffs start next week.  But what does stick out is a bit of uncertainty in their respective nets.  Is Pekka Rinne overworked for the Predators, and will one Caps goalie grab the job by the throat to get the nod in the first round that starts next week?  Plots and subplots are what crowd our thoughts.

Capitals 4 – Predators 3

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 80: Capitals at Blues, April 2nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up the road portion of the 2017-2018 regular season with a visit to the “Gateway to the West” and a meeting with the St. Louis Blues.  The Caps won their 20th road game on Sunday night in Pittsburgh for the 13^th season in franchise history with 20 road wins, clinching the Metropolitan Division title, while the Blues will be looking for a win in their effort to fend off the Colorado Avalanche for a playoff spot (the Blues have a tiebreaker edge over the Avs before play on Sunday).

The Blues might be righting themselves just in time for the postseason.  After a February that saw them struggle with a 4-8-1 record, the Blues rebounded in March to go 8-3-2.  They did it, not by overwhelming offense or stingy defense as much as they did with better possession numbers.  Their 52.88 shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 was sixth best in the month of March.

Regarding that offense, the Blues scored 37 goals in 13 games (2.85 per game), more than a quarter of the total coming off the sticks of Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrik Berglund, who had five apiece.  They got there taking different paths.

Tarasenko got there in a manner familiar to Caps fans who have watched Alex Ovechkin over the years – shot volume.  With 39 shots on goal in 11 games, he led the team in shots on goal per game (3.55), which made up for a good, if unremarkable, 12.8 percent shooting.  Tarasenko is only in his sixth NHL season, but already he is in the top-ten in franchise history in goals scored, sitting in ninth place with 176.  A hat trick against the Caps would propel him past Alex Steen into eighth place on the Blues’ all time goals list.  However, Tarasenko was once thought of as, if not the player who would supplant Alex Ovechkin as the league’s most dominant goal scorer, than perhaps at least the most prolific Russian entry.  Such was the thinking when, over his first four seasons he had steadily increasing goal numbers, from eight in 38 games as a rookie in 2012-2013 to 40 in 80 games in 2015-2016.  It seemed inevitable that he would challenge the 50-goal mark.  That has not happened.  He slid a bit last season, finishing with 39 goals in 82 games, and this season he has 31 goals in 76 games (he missed two game to an upper body injury in March).  He has four goals in his last five games, although he is without one in his last two contests.  Tarasenko is 6-1-7, plus-5, in eight career games against Washington.

Where Tarasenko got his five goals in March by pounding shots at the net, Berglund did it through efficiency.  His five goals came on just 24 shots, a 20.8 percent shooting percentage.  Call it a hot streak for Berglund, who except for a league-best 23.0 shooting percentage in the abbreviated 2012-2013 season, has been a reasonably average shooter efficiency-wise (12.3 percent for his career).  It seems a bit odd that Berglund has not been a more productive goal scorer than he has been over his ten-year career in St. Louis.  A former first-round draft pick (25^th overall in 2006), he counts only three 20-goal seasons in his career and never as many as 25 in a season (he had 23 goals in 2016-2017).  Unless he has an explosion of goals in the last week of the season, he will not get there this year, either (he has 13 in 53 games).  Berglund is 3-3-6, minus-2, in 12 career games against the Caps.

Alex Pietrangelo was the leading point-getter for the Blues (4-9-13), a bit of an odd occurrence that a defenseman would do so.  However, this is a career year for the ten-year veteran.  His 15 goals tops the 14 he had last year for a career high, and his 52 points are one better than the 51 he posted in 2011-2012 and 2013-2014.  He led the team in March in an odd pairing of stats.  He was the power play points leader (1-3-4), and he led the team overall in shots on goal (41), uncommon for a defenseman.  And then there was his ice time.  Only Erik Karlsson averaged more ice time per game (28:05) than Pietrangelo (26:55) among league defensemen.  And the ice time would seem to be an indicator of success for the Blues.  In the 47 games in which he skated at least 25 minutes this season (sixth-most in the league), the Blues are 28-13-6.  They are just 15-16-0 when Pietrangleo skated less than 25 minutes.  He is 1-3-4, minus-2, in 11 career games against Washington.

1.  Only five teams have recorded fewer penalty minutes this season than the Blues (611). 

2.  Keeping with the fives, only five teams have more wins this season when leading after one period than St. Louis (23), and their winning percentage of .920 in such games (23-0-2) is second only to Washington (.963 going into Sunday night’s game against Pittsburgh).

3.  The Blues are almost as good when leading after two periods of games.  Their 31-0-2 record is the third-best winning percentage in the league (.939).

4.  Only Vegas (32) and Boston (33) have more wins when out-shooting opponents than the Blues (31).

5.  Getting off early is not in the Blues playbook.  Their 46 first period goals is second-fewest in the league (Buffalo has 43).

1.  Going into Sunday’s games the Caps had the sixth-fewest number of power play chances on the road (106).

2.  On the other side of that statistic, only four teams were shorthanded more often on the road than the Caps (139).

3.  Going into Sunday, only Toronto had more wins (29) when leading after one period than the Caps (26).  And in an underrated stat, the Caps were a top-ten team in winning percentage when trailing after one period (6-14-0/.300/T-8^th).

4.  The Caps out-shot teams only 27 times in 78 games before Sunday night’s game, but they were successful when they did (19-7-1).

5.  Washington had the fourth-best record in the league in one-goal games before Sunday night’s game (20-5-7.,625).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

St. Louis: Jake Allen

Is Jake Allen the goaltender to take the Blues deep in the postseason?  That would appear to be a question without a ready answer.  He has shown glimpses of being a very good goaltender over his five NHL seasons, but he had yet to post elite numbers.  He has one season with a save percentage as high as .920 (.920 in 47 games in 2015-2016).  His best goals against average was 2.28 in 2014-2015 but in only 37 games.  What is intriguing is his postseason record from last year in which he posted a 1.96 goals against average and a .935 save percentage in 11 games.  What is not certain at the moment is whether he is likely to repeat that result this spring.  In his last 11 appearances, Allen is a very good 8-2-1, but it comes with a not quite as good 2.39 goals against average and a very average .909 save percentage.  In two career appearances against the Caps, Allen is 1-1-0, 2.82, .905, with one shutout.

Washington: Evgeny Kuznetsov

Going into Sunday night’s game against Pittsburgh, Evgeny Kuznetsov had already tied his career high in points (77), set in the 2015-2016 season (he recorded an assist on a goal by Dmitry Orlov against the Pens to set a new high in points).  His 25 goals were a career best, as were his 18 even strength goals.  Until he was shut out on the score sheet against Carolina on Friday, he had six straight multi-point games (5-8-13 overall).  Four of his last eight goals have been game-winners, giving him a team-leading eight in that category.  He has become a more aggressive offensive player of late.  There was a period from mid-January until mid-February in which he recorded 23 shots in 14 games (1.64 per game).  But since then, he has 51 shots on goal in 17 games (3.00 per game) before Sunday’s game in Pittsburgh.  And, with the Caps having a 19-9-1 record when he recorded three or more shots in a game, the team might be hoping it is not a passing thing.  Kuznetsov is 2-3-5, plus-3, in eight career games against St. Louis.

In the end…

This is a good measuring stick game.  St. Louis is a solid team that does many things well, capable of posing multiple challenges for the Caps.  But the Caps have not been intimidated by their surroundings in St. Louis, taking a 4-1-0 record in their last five games in St. Louis into this contest.  It is all part of the last week’s aim of getting ready and tuned for the playoffs.

Capitals 3 – Blues 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 26

The Washington Capitals started the month of March with a one-point lead in the Metropolitan Division, and that is how they ended it.  Still, how they ended March in Week 26 was part success and part missed opportunity.  For while they can still clinch the Metropolitan Division on Sunday against a bitter rival with a win in regulation, they could find themselves going into the last week of the regular season in jeopardy of dropping from the top perch of the division.

Record: 2-1-0

It was a week of meeting desperate Metropolitan Division clubs, a home-and-home set of games against the New York Rangers and a game on home ice against the Carolina Hurricanes, both clubs on the brink of elimination from the postseason as the week began.  The Caps put the Rangers on the brink with their 4-2 win at Madison Square Garden, and then the idle Rangers were officially taken from the list of playoff eligible when the New Jersey Devils beat the Hurricanes, 4-3, on Tuesday night.  The Caps completed the home-and-home sweep with a come-from-behind, overtime 3-2 win on Wednesday night, leaving the Hurricanes, hanging onto the possibility of a playoff spot by a thread. 

That thread was strong enough to keep the Caps from widening their division lead over the Pittsburgh Penguins to seven points, Carolina winning comfortably at Capital One Arena, 4-1, on Friday night.  When the Penguins beat Montreal, 5-2, on Saturday night, it narrowed the Caps’ lead to three points (the Caps with a game in hand) and gave the Penguins a chance to narrow the gap to the slimmest of margins – one point – when they meet on Sunday evening.  Still, the 2-1-0 week was the third winning week in succession for the Caps, and the team is just one standings point away from posting its 11^th 100-point season in club history.

Offense: 2.67 /game (season: 3.09 /game, rank: 10th)

It was not a particularly prolific week for the Caps, made worse by the fact that they scored half of their goals in the first 17 minutes of Week 26.  A pair of even strength goals, a shorthanded goal, and a power play goal chased Rangers starting goaltender Alexandar Georgiev and welcomed relief goalie Ondrej Pavelec in the first period of the Caps’ 4-2 win over the Rangers to open the week. 

It made for a light week in which the noteworthy element was not so much who scored as who did not.  Players without a point over the three games included: Jakub Vrana (in two games), Tom Wilson, Brett Connolly (in two games), and Dimtry Orlov, players on whom the Caps depend for secondary scoring.

At the other end, the centers – specifically, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Nicklas Backstrom – led the way.  Kuznetsov had the only two-goal week for the Caps, going 2-2-4 overall, while Backstrom had a four-assist week to tie Kuznetsov for the points lead.  Alex Ovechkin had a goal, and his shots on goal (15) led the team.  The problem was not so much Ovechkin having 15 shots in three games as the rest of the club being relatively quiet.  John Carlson did have nine shots on goal from the blue line, but after that there was the drop off to Lars Eller with seven and several players with six.  In all, 20 of the 21 skaters for the week recorded shots on goal (Connolly was the only one not to do so), just that there was not a lot of volume among them.

Defense: 2.67 / game (season: 2.92 /game, rank: 16th)

Shots on goal against remain a thing with this club.  They allowed 30 or more in all three games in Week 26, but somehow, they seem to make it work, to a point.  When they allowed Carolina 30 shots on goal, it was the 50^th time this season that the Caps allowed 30 or more shots in a game.  While it sounds like a lot, it ranks as the 15^th-highest total in the league.  The important point, though, is that the Caps are 30-16-4 in those games.  Only five teams have more wins this season when allowing 30 or more shots on goal, and all of those teams have had more games with 30 or more shots allowed.

The difficulty in Week 26 was the unevenness in the shots allowed by period.  In each game played during the week, the Caps allowed more than 15 shots in one of the regulation periods. On the other side, there were five of nine periods in which the Caps allowed fewer than ten shots, three of them with seven or fewer shots on goal allowed.

Still, it made for a tough week in the shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5.  The Caps finished the week with the seventh-worst shots allowed-for percentage at fives (47.55), seventh worst when ahead (39.77), eighth-worst when tied, and ninth-worst when in close situations.  Only when behind were the Caps in a good position with these numbers, ranking seventh-best (62.96).  The down side of that, though, is that pesky word, “behind.”

Goaltending: 2.34 / .927 (season: 2.76 / .913 / 3 shutouts)

Week 26 was, on balance, a pretty good week.  That is not to say that the embers of the fires of goalie controversy have been extinguished entirely.  Philipp Grubauer had a good outing against the Rangers to open the week, but he sustained a lower-body injury and was held out for the last two games. 

Braden Holtby got the call in the two home games to finish the week, and it was a mixed bag.  He was superb in the second of the home-and-home series against the Rangers, stopping 17 of 18 shots he faced in the first period on his way to a 35-save, 3-2 overtime win.  That performance also featured an excellent 13-for-14 (.929 save percentage facing the New York power play).  He got off to a good start in the last game of the week, stopping all eight Carolina shots he faced in the first period.  But the Hurricanes came out firing in the second period, and after stopping the first eight shots he faced, Holtby finally yielded a goal.  He would allow three goals on the last 13 shots he faced in the 4-1 loss.

The goaltending situation was not any clearer at the end of Week 26 than it was at the beginning.  Holtby has not returned to form and has a recent injury that might or might not be completely healed (hockey teams and players are notoriously close-mouthed about injuries).  Grubauer has not had enough steady work to be convincing as a go-to goalie in the postseason, and he has to deal with a recent injury.  This is the position one wants the least turmoil and uncertainty with as the playoffs get underway, but it seems that the Capitals will not have this situation as the regular season comes to an end.

Power Play: 1-for-8 / 12.5 percent (season: 22.6 percent, rank: 7th)

It was not a good week with the man advantage.  And here is just how bad it was.  The Caps scored a power play goal on their first power play shot on goal of the week (Alex Ovechkin) 57 seconds into their first power play of the week.  After that, they had no power play goals on 12 shots in 12:51 of power play ice time over seven power plays. 

Ovechkin and T.J. Oshie were the only Capitals to record power play shots in more than one game, Ovechkin going 1-for-3 against the Rangers in the first game, and then missing on one shot in each of the last two games of the week (he had the Caps’ only power play shot on goal against the Hurricanes).  Oshie was 0-for-1 and 0-for-2 in the two games against the Rangers.

This was the tenth time among the 19 weeks in which the Caps had three or more games that they had fewer than ten power play chances and the sixth time in the last eight such weeks.  This is a lingering problem.  Despite having among the most efficient power plays in the league – seventh-ranked at week’s end – it does not get enough deployment.  The Caps have the seventh-fewest power play opportunities in the league this season.

Penalty Killing: 9-for-10/ 90.0 percent (season: 80.2 percent, rank: 17th)

The penalty killers saved the week for special teams, killing off nine of ten shorthanded situations and chipping in a shorthanded goal  by Evgeny Kuznetsov against the Rangers in the 4-2 win to open the week.  There was the matter of shots, though.  Specifically, the number of shots allowed on home ice to the Ranger power play in the middle game of the week.  Nine different Rangers combined for 14 shots on goal.

That middle game was the blemish on what was otherwise a very efficient week.  Even with those 14 shots on goal allowed in 9:43 of shorthanded ice time, the Caps finished the week killing nine of ten penalties, allowing only 18 shots on goal in all over 19:43 of shorthanded ice time.  They finished with a flourish, if it could be said in the context of a loss, holding the Hurricanes to a single power play and no shots on goal on that man advantage.

Faceoffs: 82-for-168 / 48.8 percent (season: 50.5 percent, rank: 13th)

The Caps were all over the circle for a week in which they finished just two faceoff wins under 50 percent.  There was the balance in between the ends overall, the Caps taking 58 faceoffs in both the offensive and defensive ends.  There the similarity ended, though.  It was not a good week in the offensive end, where the Caps went 26-for-58 (44.8 percent).  All of it, however, might be a product of the strange week T.J. Oshie had.  All seven of the faceoffs he took were in the offensive end, and he lost all of them.  He had a devil of a time with a Ranger, losing all five draws he took against Kevin Hayes in the two games against the New Yorkers.

Then there was the odd outcome in the defensive end.  Jay Beagle, who normally shines in that area, finished under 50 percent (albeit by a thin 11-for-23 margin), while Evgeny Kuznetsov, who struggles from time to time in this area of the games, was 4-for-7.  That Kuznetsov would finish the week with the best faceoff winning percentage among the four Caps with at least ten draws taken and the only one of the four over 50 percent (20-for-37/54.1 percent) might have been the strangest result of all.

Goals by Period:

If balance is something you look for in goals scored over the course of a game, look elsewhere this week.  The Caps had a rough week in this regard.  Those four goals scored in the first period against the Rangers followed by three in the next eight regulation periods (an additional one in overtime) made for a weak week for balance, the Caps managing only one second period and one third period goal in Week 26.

The flip side of that was, well, flipped.  Washington allowed only one first period goal for the week, but gave up three in the second period and four in the third.  The results extended a recent, and perhaps disturbing trend.  Getting out to leads at the first intermission is important to this team, the Caps being one of three teams in the league without a regulation loss after 20 minutes (Vancouver and St. Louis being the others), and their .963 winning percentage (26-0-1) being tops in the league.  That makes a 5-1/plus-4 goal differential for the week a welcome outcome, giving the Caps a plus-6 first period goal differential overall.  However, those third periods might have a way of coming back to bite them.  They were minus-3 for the week in third period goal differential, making them a minus-5 overall for the season.  There are five teams in the Eastern Conference with worse third period goal differentials, and it is a poor neighborhood: Buffalo (minus-6), Ottawa (minus-19), Detroit (minus-13), Columbus (minus-6), and Montreal (minus-26).  When you look at teams like Pittsburgh (plus-30) or Boston (plus-38), one might be concerned.

In the end…

If you are only as good as your last game, than the Caps were not as good as they could have been.  A 2-1-0 record is welcome, but a win over Carolina on home ice to make it 3-0-0 was something Caps fans could have reasonably expected.  The loss makes their path to a division title and a first-round series against the first wild-card team that much more difficult.  Beating Carolina would have made the regular season end game much simpler for the Caps.  As it is now, if the Caps should lose to the Pens in regulation, they would need four points in their last three games to win the division outright without having to rely on tiebreakers (the first at season’s end being regulation/overtime wins, both teams with 43 before their game on Sunday night), assuming the Pens win out against Columbus and Ottawa.

And it would not be easy to get those four points.  After Pittsburgh, the Caps head to St. Louis to face the Blues on Monday night in the last road game of the regular season.  They follow that up with home games against the Nashville Predators and New Jersey Devils, the former with the best record in the league on Sunday morning and the latter trying to fend off the Florida Panthers for a playoff spot.

Who said it was going to be easy?

Three Stars:

• First Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (2-2-4, plus-1, 1 SHG, 1 OT/GWG. 6 shots on goal, 8 shot attempts, 54.1 faceoff percentage)
• Second Star: Nicklas Backstrom (0-4-4, plus-2, six shots on goal, 11 shot attempts)
• Third Star: Alex Ovechkin (1-1-2, even, 15 shots on goal, 31 shot attempts, 3 hits, became third player in NHL history with nine seasons with 45 or more goals, joining Mike Bossy and Wayne Gretzky)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 78: Hurricanes at Capitals, March 30th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up the March portion of their schedule looking to extend their winning streak to what would be a season-long six games when they host the Carolina Hurricanes on Friday night at Capital One Arena.  With ten wins in March and a 10-3-0 record, the Caps have already tied their highest monthly win total of the season, having gone 10-2-2 in December.

On the other side, the Hurricanes are hanging on to hope by the most slender of threads.  As of Thursday morning they trail the New Jersey Devils for the second wild card spot by nine points with ten points still available (five games) on their schedule.  Since the Devils play the Pittsburgh Penguins on Thursday night, the ‘Canes might be eliminated by the time the puck drops on 7^th Street on Friday.

If Carolina is eliminated, they have the 2018 portion of the schedule to blame.  They completed the 2017 portion of their schedule with an 18-13-7 record, one point behind the New York Islanders for the second wild card spot.  Since then, however, Carolina is 16-19-4, the tenth-best record in the Eastern Conference since January 1^st.

But there is some cause for hope, if only for the two players who lead the team in goal scoring in the new year.  Sebastian Aho, a 21-year old with 27 goals in his sophomore NHL season, has already surpassed the 24 goals he had last season for Carolina as a rookie.  Of that total, 16 of them have been scored in 35 games since January 1^st.  He has ramped up the pace of his goal scoring as a product of more efficient shooting.  He is one of 11 players in the league who, among players with at least 25 shots on goal, has a shooting percentage better than 20 percent (16-for-78/20.5 percent).  Five of those 16 goals since January 1^st were on power plays, the highest total on the team in that span.  Looking back on his entire season to date, he has been quite consistent on a month-to-month basis.  From November through the March schedule to date, Aho has recorded either five or six goals in each month (this after going without one in ten games in October).  The problem he has, which is not so much his as the problem with a young team without enough developed assets, is that his goal scoring doesn’t yet matter quite enough.  Carolina is just 14-8-2 in the 24 games in which he scored a goal this season.  He is 4-6-10, minus-1, in seven career games against Washington.

Teuvo Teravainen. only 23 years old, is right behind Aho in goal scoring in the new year with 14 in 39 games.  The production propelled him to the highest goal total of his five-year career (23), extending his uninterrupted year-to-year progress in raising his goal-scoring totals (none in three games in his rookie season, followed by four in 34 games, 13 in 78 games, 15 in 81 games, and the 23 in 77 games this season).  He weathered a dry spell in which he had just two goals over a 19-game span from early-January to mid-February (he did have 11 assists) only to follow that up with ten goals in his last 18 games, even though he averaged just 16:39 in ice time over that stretch.  There is a distinct difference in his home and road performances this season, though.  At its root, there is a marked difference between home and road in his getting shots to the net.  He has 103 shots on goal in 39 home games, but he has only 71 shots on goal in 38 road games.  It explains, for the most part his having 14 of his 23 goals this season scored on home ice and only nine when away from his home rink, but it is not unusual in that over his career, Teravainen has 309 shots on goal in 137 home games and 240 shots on goal in 136 road contests.  He is 3-5-8, even, in nine career games against the Caps.

Carolina is very green on the blue line.  Of the six defensemen to appear in at least 50 games this season, four of them are under the age of 25.  Trevor van Riemsdyk is the oldest at age 26.  None is younger than Noah Hanifin, who turned 21 in January.  The fifth-overall pick of the 2015 entry draft jumped right to the big club on Opening Night of the 2015-2016 season and has been a fixture ever since.  No Hurricane defenseman has appeared in more games over the past three seasons than Hanifin (234), and although he would not be considered an unusually productive “offensive” defenseman (second in goals and third in points among that group over the last three seasons), he has four game-winning goals in that span, second only to Justin Faulk (eight) among defensemen, and he has 25 power play points, second only to Faulk (49).  This season, Hanafin appears to be coming out as a bigger offensive producer.  He leads all Carolina defensemen in goals (10) and points (31), and he has done it while averaging fewer minutes per game (18:48) than Faulk (22:15), Jaccob Slavin (22:31), or Brett Pesce (20:54).  The trouble is, though, Carolina is only 9-9-1 when he recorded a point.  Hanifin does not have a point against the Caps in 11 career games played against them, and he is a minus-4.

1.  A loss in this game for Carolina (or if the Devils beat Pittsburgh on Thursday night) would cement their ninth consecutive season without reaching the postseason, the longest dry spell in the history of the franchise dating back to when they were the Hartford Whalers.

2.  The Hurricanes might be the team to points to when arguing “faceoffs don’t matter.”  They have won a league-best 53.9 percent of draws taken.

3.  No team has been penalized less (6:13 minutes per game) or fewer times (216 penalties called) than Carolina.  They are the only team in the league having been charged with fewer than 200 minor penalties (199).

4.  If faceoffs don’t matter, than what are you going to say about shot attempts?  Carolina leads the league in shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 (54.32).  They are third when ahead (51.39), second when behind (57.29), first when tied (54.19), and first in close situations (55.09, all numbers from NHL.com).  Small wonder that Carolina enjoys the best positive overall shot-differential in the league at plus-5.1 shots per game.

5.  On the other hand, the Hurricanes’ special teams need work, both of them being in the bottom half of the league.  They are 20^th in power play (19.0 percent) and 25^th in penalty killing (77.3 percent), one of seven teams with a power play under 20 percent and a penalty kill under 80 percent).

1.  Don’t count on this game going to a Gimmick.  Washington and Carolina are the only teams in the NHL not to have gone to the freestyle competition since January 1^st.  The last time the Caps did it was December 28^th (a 4-3 win over Boston that, curiously, was the second of a back-to-back set of games that ended in a Gimmick; the Caps lost to the New York Rangers, 1-0, the previous night), and the last time Carolina did it was December 12^th (a 3-2 win over Vegas).

2.  The Caps have a very efficient power play in one respect.  They score one power play goal for each 7:09 of power play ice time they get.  That is fifth-best in the league (Tampa Bay is best at one goal per 6:32).

3.  Colorado (49.6 percent), Arizona (47.9 percent), and Columbus (47.5 percent) are the only teams other than the Caps with a power play faceoff winning percentage under 50 percent.  The Caps are at 49.4 percent).  Contrast that with the Caps and defensive zone faceoffs, where they are second-best in the league at 54.5 percent (Carolina, who seems to be at or near the top of all these sorts of lists, are at 54.7 percent).  Perhaps “The Beagle Effect.”

4.  Whatever you think of the arbitrariness of giveaways and takeaways, here is a club you don’t want to be in.  Montreal, the New York Islanders, Detroit, and the Caps.  These four teams are the only ones in the league charged with more than 800 giveaways and credited with fewer than 600 takeaways.

5.  What is it with the Caps and playing 4-on-4?  Last year, they were one of two teams not to score a 4-on-4 goal all season (Carolina was the other…go figure).  This year, they have two.  Only five teams have fewer.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Jeff Skinner

Remember when Jeff Skinner was that fresh-faced, seventh-overall draft pick of the Hurricanes back in 2010?  Well, now he has played more games (574) than all but seven players in franchise history.  He is one of five players to reach the 200-goal mark in club history (he has 203).  He is 14^th in assists (174) and tied with Blaine Stoughton for seventh place in points (377) for the franchise.  There are also a couple of odd facts attached to his history with the club.  He one of only three players in franchise history with at least 45 power play goals scored for the club, but no shorthanded goals (Sylvain Turgeon and Ray Ferraro are the others).  And, he tied for having the third-worst plus-minus in the history of the club (minus-93, with Ray Neufeld).

After posting a career best 37 goals last season, he has fallen off that pace with only 23 so far this season, which is what happens when you follow a season of having more than 13 percent of your shots find the back of the net (13.2) with one in which less than nine percent of your shots light the lamp (8.7).  He started well this season with nine goals in his first 16 games, but he fell off that pace rapidly thereafter and has only 14 goals in his last 61 games (a 19-goal pace over 82 games).  But, as it seems with a number of other Hurricane skaters, the goal scoring isn’t accompanied by wins.  In the 20 games in which Skinner has goals this season, Carolina is just 9-6-5.  Skinner is 12-12-24, minus-1, in 36 career games against the Capitals.

Washington: Tom Wilson

Don’t bother holding the vote.  Tom Wilson is the most improved player on this team.  There isn’t really even a second place to be had in that race.  Wilson has almost doubled his previous best in goal scoring (from seven, twice, to 13 this season), has a career best in assists (20), a career best in points (33), a career best in plus-minus (plus-10), a career best in shooting percentage (11.6), a career high in shots on goal (112) and shot attempts (216), a career high in blocked shots (49), and a career high in ice time (15:56).  If you think of an Alex Ovechkin/Evgeny Kuznetsov/Tom Wilson top line as a bloody mary cocktail, Ovechkin is the “vodka” to give it spirit, Kuznetsov is the “celery stick” to blend it, and Wilson is the horseradish and Tabasco sauce to give it a spicy kick. 

His contributions matter.  The Caps are 8-1-0 in games this season when he scored a goal, 19-4-2 in the 25 games in which he registered a point.  And he has not been a liability with more ice time.  Washington is 10-2-2 in the 14 games in which he logged more than 18 minutes of ice time.  His emergence as a force for good within the rules has not reduced his propensity for taking penalties.  He is second in the league with 183 penalty minutes, having drawn penalties in 36 of 73 games played this season (he had penalties in 32 of 82 games last season).  But among 351 forwards skating at least 500 5-on-5 minutes this season, Wilson ranks third in penalties drawn overall (87) and 12^th in penalties drawn per 60 minutes (5.26; numbers from Corsica.hockey).  Wilson has some catching up to do against Carolina.  He is 0-1-1, minus-8, in 20 career games against the Hurricanes.

In the end…

See that long thin pedal on the right?  That’s the gas…keep your foot on it.  The Caps, barring a total collapse, are almost certainly going to win the Metropolitan Division and play the first wild card to open the postseason (as of Thursday afternoon, that team would be the Columbus Blue Jackets).  In fact, a win over Carolina (should New Jersey beat Pittsburgh on Thursday night) would clinch the division for the Caps before they face the Hurricanes.  But the point is that this is no time to cut corners, take shortcuts, or coast into the playoffs.  Winning is always the object of the exercise, but doing things the right way, consistently and reliably, is what allows winning to take care of itself.  Facing a weaker opponent with little to play for tests that kind of discipline.  Taking care of business, from puck drop to final horn…that will be what to look for from this team on Friday night.

Capitals 5 – Hurricanes 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 76/77: Capitals vs. Rangers, March 26th/28th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Washington Capitals wrap up their three-game road trip on Monday night with a visit to the world’s most famous arena and a contest with the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden.  It is the first of the last home-and home series in the regular season for the Caps that will conclude in Washington on Wednesday.

Washington cannot eliminate the Rangers outright in the first game of the home-and-home, but they could push them to the brink.  It would be possible for the Rangers to tie the eighth-place New Jersey Devils with a 39-35-8 record (the Rangers having to sweep their last six games after a loss Monday night against the Caps and the Devils losing all of their remaining games in regulation), but could squeak past with more wins in regulation and overtime.

The Rangers just have not been able to get any traction to advance in the standings of late.  Just when they appear to be putting things in a better state, they slide right back.  They had an horrific stretch to open the new year going 12-20-3 after they beat the Buffalo Sabres on New Year’s Day in the annual Winter Classic.  They started to turn things around at the end of February, or so it seemed, with a three-game winning streak.  They followed that up with a three-game skid (0-2-1).  Then, wins in consecutive games were followed by another three-game losing streak (0-2-1) before they beat the Sabres on Saturday night, 5-1, leaving the Rangers 6-4-2 in their last 12 games and unable to close any distance on a playoff spot.

The Rangers have not had much of a problem scoring over those dozen games, recording 42 goals in all (seventh-most overall in that span).  Mika Zibanejad leads the team in goals (10) and points (15) over that period.  In fact, since February 28^th, when the Rangers started on this meandering 6-4-2 run, only Winnipeg’s Patrik Laine has more goals than Zibenejad (12), and only nine players have more points through Saturday’s games.  Those ten goals propelled Zibanejad to a career best 27 goals through 65 games this season, surpassing the 21 he had for the Ottawa Senators in 2015-2016.  With 46 points, he tied his second-highest career point total (2014-2015) and is within striking distance of his career best (51 in 2015-2016).  Sadly for the Rangers, his production just has not mattered a lot. Zibanejad has goals in 24 games this season, and the Rangers are just 9-13-2 in those games.  He does, however, have goals in five of the Rangers’ last eight wins in which he participated.  In 17 career games against Washington, Zibanejad is 4-4-8, even.

You might be forgiven for not recognizing the name “Neal Pionk.”  Undrafted by any NHL team, the defenseman played for two seasons with the University of Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs in the NCAA, upon which he signed a two-year/$3.55 million contract with the Rangers as a free agent.  He spent 48 games with the Hartford Wolf Pack in the AHL before being promoted to the Rangers in early-February.  He struggled a bit to get his footing in the NHL, recording only one point (an assist) in his first nine games and going minus-4.  He was getting a long look, though, averaging 20:57 in ice time over those games.  Since then, over this 6-4-2 run, Pionk leads Ranger defensemen in points (1-12-13) and is logging even more time – 22:45 per game, highest ice time average on the club.  There does seem to be a price paid in giving him so much ice time.  The Rangers are 4-6-0 in the games in which Pionk skated more than 23 minutes, although he does have points in six of those games (1-8-9) and are 4-2-0 in those high ice time games in which he did have a point.  This will be his first appearance against the Capitals.

If this is a Rangers game, this would be where we would talk about goalie Henrik Lundqvist.  However, he appeared only once in the last two weeks, giving up four goals on 30 shots in a 5-3 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets on March 20^th.  And now, there is talk of his being shut down for the rest of the season with a wonky back.  Not that Lundqvist seems inclined to listen to it.  If Lundqvist is held out of one or both of this home-and-home set, the goaltending duties would normally fall to Ondrej Pavelec, but he hasn’t seen action since February 9^th, out of the lineup with a knee injury.  That leaves the bulk of the goaltending duties these days to Alexandar Georgiev.  Undrafted, he was invited to the Rangers’ development camp in the summer of 2017.  He made enough of an impression to get a three-year contract with the club.  He appeared in 31 games with the Hartford Wolf Pack, going 12-11-2, 2.97, .908 with two shutouts before getting his second call-up of the season in February.   He started slowly in terms of wins and losses, going 1-2-0 in his first four appearances (one no-decision).  But his goals against average of 2.65 was good, and his save percentage of .930 was very good.  Over his last five appearances, Georgiev is 3-1-1, 2.98, .924.  This would be his first career action against the Caps.

1.  The Caps might want to avoid the Rangers’ power play.  Over their last dozen games, the Rangers are 9-for-30, their 30.0 percent efficiency being fourth-best in the league over that span.  Those 30 opportunities are more than just six other teams in that span, and three of them played fewer games – St. Louis (25 chances in 11 games), Toronto (24 times in nine games), and Anaheim (24 times in 11 games).

2.  Defense?   Must be a four-letter word in Manhattan.  Only the Montreal Canadiens have allowed more shots on goal (507) than have the Rangers (485) over the Rangers’ last dozen games, and the 40.4 shots per game allowed is by far the most in the league over that time. And it isn’t as if the Rangers are engaging in up-and-down, firewagon hockey.  Their 353 shots on goal is sixth-fewest in that span, a shot differential of minus-132, worst in the league over those dozen games.

3.  Differences in official scoring aside, the Rangers are not very tidy with the puck.  Their 953 charged giveaways this season are second-most in the league, only three fewer than the Florida Panthers.  But on the other side, their 665 credited takeaways are third-most in the league, trailing only Carolina (831) and Vegas (781).

4.  The Rangers aren’t likely to blow anyone out.  They have nine wins this season by three or more goals, a total exceeding that of just four other teams: Carolina (8), Ottawa (7), Arizona (7), and Buffalo (3).

5.  If the Caps have an incentive to get pucks on net, it is that only one team in the league has more losses in regulation when out-shot than the Ranger (21 losses)). Ottawa has 25 losses when out-shot.

1.  Only three teams have more wins than the Caps when out-shot by opponents.  Their 25 wins in those situations is exceeded only by Nashville (26), Toronto (28), and Colorado (30).  On the other side of that, the Caps don’t lose much when they do manage to out-shoot opponents.  Their seven regulation losses are bested only by Nashville (five), and their eight total losses is fewest in the league.

2.  This will be the fourth home-and-home series for the Caps this season.  The Caps split the first, losing at home before winning in Carolina against the Hurricanes in mid-January.  In the other two series, the Caps opened each on the road – at Columbus and at the New York Islanders – winning in each instance before completing the sweep on home ice.

3.  Washington has the second-best shooting percentage in the league (10.8 percent), trailing only Tampa Bay (10.9 percent).

4.  No team has enjoyed fewer 5-on-3 power play chances than the Caps this season.  They have four, the same number as that of Edmonton, Los Angeles, Carolina, and Philadelphia.  They were successful on two of those four chances.

5.  The Caps have the second-highest number of penalties in the Eastern Conference (307) to Florida’s 314. And, no team in the East has spent more time killing penalties than the Caps this season (406:30).  They rank ninth overall in the league, but each of the eight teams ahead of them are in the Western Conference.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Jimmy Vesey

For the longest time, or so it might have seemed to him, offense was in short supply in Jimmy Vesey’s game.  Over a 30-game span from December 27^th through March 10^th, he was 4-1-5, minus-16.  But then he had his first career hat trick in a 6-3 win over the Carolina Hurricanes on March 12^th.  Starting with that game, Vesey has five goals in six games on just 13 shots (38.5 percent shooting).  That goal scoring matters to the Rangers, who are 10-2-1 in the 13 games in which Vesey has at least one goal this season.  But while Vesey now has a career best 17 goals in 72 games this season, he is also a career-worst minus-20 (yes, it is only a two-year career so far, but still).  That minus-20 is tied for second-worst on the club with Brady Skjei, better than only David Desharnais (minus-23).  He has been on ice for 59 goals against, fourth-most among forwards, but then again among the forwards who have spent all season with the club, he is seventh in average ice time.  A lot happens when he is on the ice, some of it good and some of it not so good.  Vesey is 2-0-2, even, in six career games against the Capitals.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

There is the flashy for its own sake, and there is the necessary that only looks flashy.  The difference was on display against the Montreal Canadiens on Saturday night.  With the first period winding down and the Caps holding a 2-1 lead, Nicklas Backstrom found some open ice to receive a pass from Andre Burakovsky at the right wing wall.  From just inside the dot in the right wing circle, Backstrom, facing the corner, spied Tom Wilson circling behind him.  Backstrom gave defenseman Jeff Petry a shimmy to get Petry to bite and step up, and it was just enough for Backstrom to backhand a no-look pass to Wilson in space for a one-timer that beat goalie Carey Price on the blocker side for a 3-1 lead.  If a no-look backhand pass could be considered subtle, that was it, Backstrom employing an economy of movement and an ability to think ahead a couple of moves to create space for the shooter and lay a pass right on his stick for a scoring chance.

It was Backstrom’s third assist of the period on the way to a four-assist night, his first of the season and the 11^th of his career, most in franchise history.  The four points was his second four-point game of the season (October 13^th against New Jersey being the other), the 20^th of his career, second to Alex Ovechkin (24) in club history.  That moment was Backstrom’s career in a five-second burst, thinking the game better than his opponent, putting himself and a teammate in a position to make a play, and then executing it with calm and precision by taking the necessary action, not the “flashy” one for its own sake.  He will be coming into the home-and-home against the Rangers a hot player, 4-12-16, plus-3, in his last 12 games with four multi-point games among them.  Backstrom is 9-24-33, minus-5, in 41 career games against the Rangers.

In the end…

Going into Madison Square Garden and getting out with a win is never easy, although this year seems to be a little easier on opponents, the Rangers with only 21 home wins, 17^th-most in the league with two home games yet to play.  On the other hand, only five teams have more home wins than the Caps’ 26 wins at Capital One Arena.  Add to that the fact that the Caps are the team with a future to play for this season, and the Rangers are a club looking more at what they might have for next season and beyond.  It is a formula for what would be a successful final home-and-home set of games of the regular season for the Caps.

Monday: Capitals 4 – Rangers 3

Wednesday: Capitals 4 – Rangers 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 25

The penultimate week of March was a good one for the Washington Capitals.  It started poorly, with a loss on the road to a bitter divisional rival, but it ended with a rush and allowed the team to put a bit of distance between itself and its Metropolitan Division competition.

Record: 3-1-0

Capitals Nation might have been in a foul mood following the 6-3 stomping the Caps took at the hands of the Philadelphia Flyers to open the week, but three wins to follow made for smiles by week’s end.  What made it a particularly satisfying week was that the Caps ended a long streak of frustration at the hands of the Dallas Stars on home ice.  Washington’s 4-3 win over the Stars in the second game of the week ended a six-game losing streak on home ice against that team (0-5-1).

After that the Caps became “The Eliminator.”  They went on the road and officially ended the Detroit Red Wings’ chances to reach the postseason, fighting off their own sense of the “blahs” to escape with a 1-0 decision.  Then, they headed to Montreal and, in an unexpected free-for-all, ended the competitive portion of the Canadiens’ season with a 6-4 win.

As a result, the 3-1-0 week put the Caps in a five-point lead in the Metropolitan Division, their biggest division lead since they held a five-point lead over the Pittsburgh Penguins (69 to 64) on February 10^th.  And, they ended the week on a three-game winning streak that, modest as it might sound, is at the moment the longest in the Eastern Conference.

Offense: 3.25 /game (season: 3.11 /game, rank: 10th)

Deuces were wild for the Caps in Week 25.  Five different players recorded a pair of goals – Tom Wilson, Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie, Alex Ovechkin, and John Carlson.  Kuznetsov, Carlson, and Brett Connolly had the game-winners for the week.  Matt Niskanen, Chandler Stephenson, and Jay Beagle wrapped up the goal scoring.  For Beagle, his goal continued one of the more bizarre histories in the NHL.  He scored his 51^st career goal against the Canadiens in the last game of the week.  It was the 47 game of his career in which he recorded a goal.  In those 47 games the Caps have a record of 41-1-5.  And it is not a whole lot different when he records a point.  In 103 career games in which he recorded at least one point, the Caps are 84-11-8.

Speaking of points, it was John Carlson leading the team in Week 25 with six points (2-4-6).  With those six points, Carlson finished the week leading all NHL defensemen in points (63), and the two goals he recorded pulled him to within one of Calgary’s Dougie Hamilton for the league lead among blueliners.  Carlson also led the club in shots on goal for the week (18).

It was a long week in terms of games (four being the usual maximum a team will have), but the Caps still spread things around points-wise.  There were 17 different skaters recording at least one point.  Devante Smith-Pelly was the only forward not to put a crooked number on the score sheet, and three defensemen were shut out – Michal Kempny, Christian Djoos, and Brooks Orpik.  Djoos did, however, post the team’s best plus-minus of the week (plus-3).

Defense: 3.25 / game (season: 2.93 /game, rank: 16th)

At a high level, it was a very uneven week for the Caps.  The team alternated allowing high and low volumes of shots on goal, giving up 35 to the Flyers in the first game of the week and 39 to the Red Wings in Game 3, while they allowed just 27 to the Stars and 21 to the Canadiens in the second and fourth games of the week.  The Caps did not do a bad job of denying shots in the first periods of games, allowing 35 in all and fewer than ten in three of the four games.  Only against Detroit in the third game of the week did the Caps allow more than ten, 13 in all.  The second period was a different story where 13 shots on goal was the lower bound in the first three games of the week.  The Flyers had 14 second period shots, and Detroit had 15.  They “held” the Stars to 13 shots in the second game of the week.  The Caps found their defensive edge in the last game of the week, allowing only five second period shots to Montreal and holding them to nine in the first and seven in the third for a total of 21 shots on goal.  As uneven as it was, there were still 12 teams in the league that allowed more shots on goal than the Caps, and they had the same number (122) as the Los Angeles Kings.  Only four teams having played in four games for the week allowed fewer.  In that context, the Caps were a bit stingier than one might have thought otherwise.

Still, this is a club that struggles holding their own in terms of shot attempts at 5-on-5.  They had the sixth-worst shot attempts-for percentage for the week (46.47) and they had the tenth-highest number of shot attempts against (182).  Worse, their shot attempts-for in close situations was grim, ranking fourth-worst for the week (40.97 percent, numbers from NHL.com).

Goaltending: 3.04 / .901 / 1 shutout (season: 2.78 / .912 / 3 shutouts)

In the goaltending area, Week 25 started with a goalie controversy, and then it ended on a cautionary note.  The recent troubles of Braden Holtby and the emergence of Philipp Grubauer led to the latter being given the keys to the car to start the week.  Things went well...for 20 minutes.  Grubauer stopped all nine shots he faced in the first period against the Flyers, but then he allowed five goals on 25 shots over the last two periods before the Flyers scored an empty netter in their 6-3 win over the Caps.

Holtby got the call in the second game of the week against Dallas, and his performance reflected his infrequency of work over the last couple of weeks.  He allowed a goal on four shots in the first period, and then he let two get past him on 13 shots in the second period.  He stood tall in the third period, though, stopping all ten shots he faced to earn his second win in as many appearances, the first time he won consecutive appearances since early February when he won both ends of a home-and-home against the Columbus Blue Jackets.

The win came at a price, though.  Holtby tweaked something in the Dallas game, perhaps from a collision with the Stars’ Remi Elie.  The team took a cautious path with Holtby, and Grubauer got the last two starts of the week.  His performances were at opposite ends of the spectrum.  He pitched a brilliant 39-save shutout of the Red Wings in Detroit on Thursday night, his second shutout in five games and his third of the season.  In the last game of the week, though, he allowed four goals on just 21 shots by the Montreal Canadiens.  Although two of those goals came in the last 11 minutes after the Caps built a 6-2 lead, it was not the best performance by Grubauer this week by a long shot.

Overall, Grubauer and Holtby combined for a superb .943 save percentage in the first periods of games, but their combined .872 in the second periods of games and a .897 third period save percentage made for a less-than-thrilling week.

Power Play: 3-for-12 / 25.0 percent (season: 23.0 percent, rank: 5th)

Week 25 was the 11^th time this season that the Caps finished a week with a power play efficiency of 25 percent or better and the fourth time in the last five weeks.  Over those five weeks they hummed along at 14-for-45 (31.1 percent).

John Carlson was the set-up man for the power play, recording assists on each of the three man advantage goals of the week to lead the Caps in power play points.  Two of those goals were scored by Evgeny Kuznetsov, both of them coming in the Caps’ 6-4 win over Montreal to end the week.  It was the first time this season that Kuznetsov recorded two or more power play goals in a game.  He joinied T.J. Oshie as the only Caps to do it this season (Oshie had a pair of power play goals in a 4-3 overtime loss to Tampa Bay on October 9^th).  It was a nice return for Kuznetsov, who missed the first three games of the week with an upper-body injury.

Generally, it was more an effective than an efficient power play in Week 25. It started poorly, with the Caps unable to muster a power play shot on goal in 2:55 of power play time against the Flyers.  They picked things up after that, though, going 3-for-9 in the last three games of the week and scoring those three goals on 15 shots in 13:03 of power play ice time.

Penalty Killing: 12-for-14/ 85.7 percent (season: 79.8 percent, rank: 18th)

The good news of Week 25 on the penalty kill was its efficiency, the first time since Week 20 that the Caps skated off more than 85 percent of the shorthanded situations they faced and the tenth time this season.  The bad news was spending too much time killing penalties (20:45) and allowing too many shots (25).

The Caps caught a bit of a break in the shots allowed area.  Of the 25 shots on goal allowed for the week, 17 of them were recorded by Dallas (eight) and Detroit (nine).  Those teams finished the week 18^th and 24^th, respectively, in power play efficiency.  That they were a combined 1-for-8 on their power play was not a surprising result.

Faceoffs: 138-for-250 / 55.2 percent (season: 50.5 percent, rank: 12th)

It was a solid week in the circle for the Caps, winning over 50 percent of their faceoffs in three of the four games and winning all three zones for the week. And it was the players taking the highest volume of draws who did well, generally speaking.  A four-game week meant that there were five Caps taking at least ten draws for the week.  Of that group, Nicklas Backstrom (40-for-75/53.3 percent), Jay Beagle (45-for-64/70.3 percent),and Evgeny Kuznetsov (11-for-18/61.1 percent) had especially good weeks.  Of 161 players taking at least ten draws for the week in the NHL, only San Jose’s Barclay Goodrow (16-for-21/76.2 percent) had a better week than Beagle.

It was something of an interesting week in terms of the competition.  The Caps went 66-for-124 (53.2 percent) against Philadelphia and Dallas, teams that finished the week ranked second and fourth in the league in faceoff winning percentage. At the other end of the spectrum, the Caps went 77-for-126 (61.1 percent) against Detroit and Montreal, who finished the week 23^rd and 29^th, respectively, in faceoff winning percentage.  At the end of the week, the Caps were 12^th overall.

Goals by Period:

Overall, it was a closely fought week by period for the Caps and their opponents.  Most of the fireworks came late in games but not quite in the same way.  The Caps allowed five third period goals, the Flyers scoring three to pull away for a comfortable win, and the Canadiens making things a bit more interesting than the Caps might have liked with a pair of goals that narrowed a 6-2 lead to what would become a 6-4 win.  What might have been the most noteworthy fact of the week in this area, though, was the Caps inability to score in the first period.  They went three games without a first period goal before exploding for three in the first 20 minutes against Montreal after spotting the Canadiens a 1-0 lead.

Those five third period goals allowed might be an area of concern as the Caps head into the last two weeks of the season.  The 81 third period goals allowed is the tenth-most number of goals allowed in the final 20 regulation minutes of games this season.  Of the nine teams having allowed more third period goals this season, only Minnesota (the most allowed with 91) is currently playoff-eligible.

In the end…

At this point for the Capitals, there are three matters to address.  First, and perhaps least important (fans might disagree) is seeding.  High seeding has hardly been an advantage for the Caps in recent years, and there is little reason to suggest that high seeding would, in and of itself, provide the Caps with an advantage.  In this respect, matchups might matter more.  But, for purposes of this item, Week 25 was a good week to secure a high seed, stretching their Metropolitan Division lead.

Second, there is fine tuning their game to eliminate the rough edges and inconsistencies in their game so that they can avoid the errors that are magnified in the postseason and that can mean an early exit.  It was a mixed week in that area, the Caps allowing too many man advantages and allowing too many shots on goal in those situations.  They were also a bit too leaky late in games for comfort as well.

Third, they need to get healthy.  It was a good sign that Evgeny Kuznetsov returned for the last game of the week and posted a pair of goals.  Having him in fine fettle and at the top of his game, production-wise, will be an essential element for any postseason success the Caps might enjoy.  That the team would exercise caution on the matter of Braden Holtby would seem to reflect the attitude that health is more important than seeding.  Having Philipp Grubauer playing well didn’t hurt in making that decision, either.

It would be hard to think of Week 25 as being anything other than preparation, getting things right for what is coming in April, and that will be the theme as the team heads into the last two weeks of the regular season.

Three Stars:

• First Star: John Carlson (2-4-6, plus-1, 0-3-3 on power play, 1 game-winning goal, 18 shots on goal, 23:04 in ice time per game)
• Second Star: Nicklas Backstrom (0-5-5, even, 0-2-2 on power play, 20:38 in ice time per game, 53.3 percent faceoff wins)
• Third Star: Alex Ovechkin (2-3-5, even), 1-0-1 on power play, 16 shots on goal, 33 shot attempts, 20:55 in average ice time)