The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 4: Capitals at Devils, October 11th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals might have had a light schedule in the early going of their 2018-2019 season – they will play only their third game of the season on Wednesday night against the Vegas Golden Knights – but it does not compare with the schedule of their next opponent, the New Jersey Devils.  When the Devils host the Caps on Thursday, Day 9 on the 2018-2019 season calendar, it will be only the Devils’ second game of the season.  Since defeating the Edmonton Oilers in their season/home opener, the Devils have been limited to practice and waiting.

It is not the best way, perhaps, to build early season momentum, but the Devils do have the advantage of starting their season with a five-game home stand, the longest home stand on their schedule this season.  The Devils reached the postseason last year after a five-year absence.  But despite failing in the first round of the playoffs to the Tampa Bay Lightning, it is a team that seemed content merely to tinker around the margins of their roster.  Gone are late-season acquisitions Pat Maroon (to St. Louis as a free agent) and Michael Grabner (to Arizona as a free agent), while in are… well, there do not appear to be much in the area of upgrades.

The stand-pat approach to the roster will put some pressure on second-year player Nico Hischier to take the next big leap in his development.  The first overall pick in the 2017 Entry Draft had a superb rookie season, finishing with 20 goals (tied for seventh among all rookies), 32 assists (fifth), 52 points (tied for sixth), 19 even strength goals (tied for third), and averaging 16:19 in ice time per game (sixth among rookie forwards).  He is the only rookie in franchise history to record at least 20 goals and at least 30 assists, while going at least plus-10 in his rookie season.  And, he did not succumb to a problem many rookies face – hitting a wall over the long season.  He appeared in all 82 games (the only Devil to do so) and finished a respectable 7-4-11, plus-5, in his last 15 games of the season.  Hischier was 1-1-2, minus-1, in four games against the Caps as a rookie.

Only three defensemen in team history have appeared in more games for the club than Andy Greene (789): Ken Daneyko (1,283), Scott Stevens (956), and Scoot Niedermayer (892).  That’s Devils royalty, all three having played on all three Devils’ Cup-winning teams (1995, 2000, 2003).  Greene has had no such team success, and he has toiled in near anonymity.  Since he came into the league in 2006-2007, he has been dependable, those 789 games played ranking 22^nd among defensemen over that period, and he is one of only six defensemen in club history to record at least 200 points.   The 2017-2018 season was the third consecutive season in which Greene finished with 13 points.  It is down a notch or two from his most productive years (from 2009-2010 through 2014-2015 he averaged 28 points per 82 games), but as the oldest defenseman on the roster (we will turn 36 before the end of this month) his role might be as much leadership as it is production these days.  Greene is 3-6-9, minus-17, in 40 career games against Washington.

The 2004 Entry Draft was an odd one for goaltenders.  Four netminders were taken in the first 26 picks.  It was a mixed bag.  Neither Al Montoya (taken sixth overall by the New York Rangers), nor Marek Schwarz (picked 17^th by the St. Louis Blues) put together much of a resume in the NHL.  Devan Dubnyk (taken 14^th by the Edmonton Oilers) became a very good goalie, but not until his sixth season and his fourth team in the NHL (Minnesota, where he finished third in the Vezina Trophy voting and fourth in the Hart Trophy voting in 2015).  Cory Schneider was the fourth goalie taken in that draft, a selection of the Vancouver Canucks.  After a solid apprenticeship (85-45-12, 2.30, .921, with 12 shutouts in 137 AHL games, he played well for the Canucks in a limited role (55-26-8, 2.20, .927, with nine shutouts in 98 games), but he ended up getting stuck behind Roberto Luongo, although he did push Luongo quite hard for the top spot, eventually getting 30 of 48 starts in his last season in Vancouver in 2012-2013.  Since being traded to New Jersey in June 2013 for a first round draft pick, his numbers have been steadily slipping.  He posted a 1.97 goals against average in 45 games in 2013-2014, but his GAA has gone up every year since, cresting at 2.93 last season.  His save percentage in that first season with the Devils was .921, but after two more seasons over .920 it sank to .908 two years ago and .907 last season. 

Part of the problem for Schneider last season might have been a hip injury.  He had off-season hip surgery and did not dress for the Devils’ season opener.  He remains on injured reserve, leaving the number one duties for the time being to Keith Kinkaid.  It was a bit of a surprise to see Kinkaid get 41 games last season, but he did not wilt under the workload.  However, neither did he shine.  His 2.77 goals against average and .913 save percentage were squarely in the range of his career numbers in four seasons preceding last year (2.68/.912 in 69 games).  If Schneider cannot come back soon and come back better than he has been the last few seasons, the Devils reaching the postseason a second straight year would be in jeopardy.  Kinkaid is 2-3-0, 3.95, .864 in five career appearances against the Caps.

1.  From 2014-2015 through last season, only seven players in the league among more than 1,300 to have dressed had a worse plus-minus than Devils defenseman Damon Severson (minus-60).

2.  It might seem odd, but in 43 seasons coming into this one, the Devils have only one 50-win season.  That came in 2008-2009 (51-27-4), and they were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs in seven games by the Carolina Panthers.

3.  Last year’s magic number for New Jersey was “four.”  Thirty times they scored four or more goals, and not once did they lose in regulation (28-0-2).

4.  There was quite a drop-off in points from Taylor Hall (93) to Nico Hischier (52), but on the other hand, after Hall the Devils were quite balanced.  There were 14 skaters with at least 20 points and 21 skaters finished last season in double digits in points.

5. New Jersey was one of only six teams last season to have more takeaways than giveaways.  Their takeaway-to-giveaway ratio (1.04) was fifth-best in the league.

1.  The Caps bring a 15-game points streak against the Devils into this game.  Washington is 13-0-2 over that stretch.  They have outscored New Jersey, 54-27, have outshot the Devils by a 426-382 margin, have converted 10 of 50 power play chances (20.0 percent), and have killed off 41 or 45 shorthanded situations (91.1 percent).

2.  When the Caps allowed four goals to the Devils last January 18^th in a 4-3 overtime loss, it was the first time that the Caps allowed more than two goals to the Devils in New Jersey since they allowed three goals in a 3-2 overtime loss on January 25, 2013.  The odd thing about the nine straight games in which the Caps allowed two or fewer goals in New Jersey was that they lost two of the games, both in regulation.

3.  Only the Florida Panthers and the Tampa Bay Lighting average more shots on goal per game, for and against (72.0 per game combined for both) than the Caps (69.5).

4.  The Caps are averaging 13:00 in penalty minutes per game, third highest in the league. Yes, only two games in. Yes, a matter than needs to be addressed.

5.  Washington hasn’t improved its shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5, but it's early.  They finished last season ranked 24^th (47.98); they are ranked 23^rd as of Wednesday afternoon, before their evening game against Vegas (45.55).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New Jersey: Taylor Hall

You are the reigning Hart Trophy winner.  You set career highs in goals (39), assists (54), points (93), plus-minus (plus-14), even strength goals (25), power play goals (13, tying his best), and were named to the first team All-Star team at season’s end.  For the first time in nine seasons in the NHL, you reached the postseason.  What is next for Taylor Hall?  Well, for starters, if he has another big year in 2018-2019 (41 goals), he would become the 25^th player in team history to score 100 goals with the club. With 79 points he would jump into the top-30 in points in franchise history.  Not bad for a player entering only his fourth season with the club.  He led the club in just about every offensive category last season (goals, assists, points, plus-minus, power play goals, power play points, game winning goals, overtime goals, shots on goal, and shootout shot attempts).  Under a literal interpretation of the Hart citation (player most valuable to his team) it is hard to argue with the selection.  Hall is 3-2-5, minus-3, in 11 career games against Washington.

Washington: Michal Kempny

After suffering a concussion at the hands (elbow, shoulder) of St. Louis’ Robert Bortuzzo in the preseason (Bortuzzo was suspended two preseason games and the regular season opener), Michal Kempny is expected to make his season debut for the Capitals against the Vegas Golden Knights on Wednesday.  If last season was an indicator, it matters.  As we wrote in the preview for Kempny a short time back regarding his addition to the blue line in a trade with Chicago: 

“Kempny ended up being the solution to more than one problem.  The Caps were not getting it done, or at least not looking like a likely deep-run playoff team with two rookie defensemen (Christian Djoos and Madison Bowey) getting regular turns in the lineup.  Whether they were paired together, or they were partnered with John Carlson (Djoos) and Brooks Orpik (Bowey), it wasn’t working at a high enough level.  They had one solid pair – Matt Niskanen and Dmitry Orlov – and two that just didn’t seem to click.
 Enter Kempny.  Pairing him with John Carlson on the second pair allowed head coach Barry Trotz to pair a conventional offensive defenseman in Christian Djoos with a conventional defensive defenseman in Brooks Orpik.  Uncertainty about the blue line’s ability to stand up when the pressure was greatest melted away.”

Kempny does not, and is not likely to have numbers that will impress the casual fan.  But he plays a complementary role quite well, as was the case last year with John Carlson.  Give that the Caps were at the extremes in their first two games – holding Boston without a goal before surrendering seven to Pittsburgh, the stability Kempny demonstrated he can provide would be a welcome contribution to defensive consistency.  In four career games against the Devils, Kempny is 1-1-2, plus-4.

In the end…

This is one odd game.  The Caps are coming into it playing their second straight back-to-back after five full days off since their last one.  New Jersey has had one game so far and might be expected to have accumulated some rust after having four full days off of their own.  Dmitrij Jaskin, claimed off waivers from the St. Louis Blues by the Caps, could see his first action with the club, if he didn’t already against Vegas on Wednesday.  It is entirely possible that Pheonix Copley will get his first turn in goal for the Caps, the first time a goalie other than Braden Holtby or Philipp Grubauer started a game for the Caps since Justin Peters stopped 30 of 33 shots in a 5-3 win over the Anaheim Ducks on February 15, 2015.  New Jersey is trying to get by in the early going with their backup netminder while their number one is on the mend from surgery.  One would have a devil of a time (wink wink) figuring out just how this game might unfold.  OK, not really…

Capitals 5 – Devils 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 3: Golden Knights at Capitals, October 10th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals have had five full days off since their back-to-back opening to the 2018-2019 season, beating the Boston Bruins last Wednesday, 7-0, and falling in overtime to the Pittsburgh Penguins in overtime, 7-6, on Thursday.  And now they get to go the Wednesday-Thursday, home-away, back-to-back thing all over again.

The front end of that back-to-back will see the Caps hosting the Vegas Golden Knights in the teams’ first meeting since June 7^th, when the Caps danced the Stanley Cup around T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.  It is a new season, and the teams are headed in opposite directions in the early going.  While the Caps have that dominating win and an overtime loss in which they came back from two goals down in the third period to secure a standings point, Vegas was rocked by the Philadelphia Flyers in their home opener, 5-2, eked out a Gimmick loss in Minnesota when they scored late in the third period to force extra time, and then dropped a 4-2 decision in Buffalo to the Sabres on Monday.

That Vegas got that standings point in Minnesota was the product of a late 6-on-5 flurry with their goalie pulled, Max Pacioretty one-timing a feed from Jonathan Marchessault with 1:31 left in regulation to force overtime.  Pacioretty was one of the players caught up in a flurry of housecleaning by the Montreal Canadiens over the summer.  It took the Habs until September to pull the trigger, but they sent the left winger to the Golden Knights for forward Tomas Tatar, Nick Suzuki, and a second round pick in the 2019 Entry Draft.  He brings a solid resume to the desert – 226 goals and 448 points in 626 regular season games before this season, which include among them five 30-goal seasons.  He has been something of an all-or-some kind of player, though.  In addition to his five 30-goal seasons, Pacioretty had five seasons in which he scored 17 or fewer goals, that 17-goal season coming last year.  Vegas is hoping for something more.  In 28 career games against Washington, Pacioretty is 5-11-16, minus-2.

The trouble with scoring 43 goals in 82 games when you scored a total of 18 goals in 183 games over three years preceding that season is that there is the lingering sense that the player has something left to prove, that his big season was not an outlier.  That is the situation William Karlsson faces in his second season in Las Vegas.  Almost as amazing as his 43 goals for the Golden Knight was his finishing plus-49 for the season.  Not only did that lead the league by a wide margin (teammate Jonathan Marchessault was plus-36), it was the second highest plus-minus since the 2005-2006 season (Washington’s Jeff Schultz was plus-50 in 2009-2010).  He has yet to light the lamp this season, but that might not be a sign of significance, and not just because it has been only three games.  Last season, Karlsson was without a goal in his first six games before he went on a tear in which he had 13 goals in his next 16 games.  He is 1-3-4, minus-2, in 12 career games against the Caps.

The season is but three games old for the Golden Knights, but there is no clearer example of “then and now” than goalie Marc-Andre Fleury.  Last season, Fleury opened the season over his first three games by going 3-0-0 (T-1^st in wins), 1.32 (seventh), .963 (sixth; minimum: 60 minutes played).  Three games into this season he is 1-2-0, 3.93 (28^th), .841 (28^th; minimum: 60 minutes played).  He lasted barely 30 minutes in Vegas’ season opener, allowing all five goals on 16 shots in a 5-2 loss to the Philadelphia Flyers.  He was much better in his next outing, stopping 29 of 30 shots in regulation and overtime, and all three trick shots in a 2-1 Gimmick win over the Minnesota Wild.  He could not maintain that level of performance in his third appearance, though, allowing four goals on 17 shots in a 4-2 loss to the Buffalo Sabres on Monday.  He has allowed four or more goals twice in three games after allowing four or more only five times in 46 appearances last season.  Fleury is 22-12-2, 2.54, .914, with four shutouts in 38 career appearances against the Capitals.

1.  Vegas has two goals scored in each of their first three games this season.  Last season, they opened with two goals scored in each of their first two games, but they did not score that few a number again until Game 12, when they dropped a 2-1 decision in Boston to the Bruins.

2.  Last season, Vegas had 20 players record double digits in points.

3.  Of returning Golden Knights, seven had career years scoring goals last season: William Karlsson (43), Erik Haula (29), Colin Miller (10), Ryan Carpenter (9), Brayden McNabb (5), Tomas Nosek (7), and Shea Theodore (6).  Of that group, only Haula has a goal (one) so far this season.

4.  As of Tuesday afternoon, Vegas is one of nine teams yet to score a power play goal so far this season, and they get off to bad starts. They have only one first period goal so far, while allowing four.

5.  You would think that Vegas will turn things around in short order if they can maintain one set of numbers.  The Golden Knights rank fifth in shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 (60.32) and are second in that statistic in close situations (63.08).

1.  Washington has the best goal differential in the Eastern Conference as of Tuesday afternoon (plus-6).  In the West, only Colorado is as good, and only Dallas is better (plus-7).

2.  In the first three games the Caps played against Vegas last season (two regular season and Game 1 of the Stanley Cup final), all of them losses, Washington was outscored 13-7.  In the last four games the teams played, swept by the Caps, Washington outscored Vegas, 16-8.

3.  The Caps have dressed the same 18 skaters for their first two games.  Of that number, 15 already have points this season.

4.  It is early, but Alex Ovechkin does not lead the team in shots on goal.  At least not outright.  He, Brett Connolly, and Evgeny Kuznetsov have eight shots on goal apiece.

5.  There have been 584 skaters to dress in the NHL so far this season.  Eight of them scored a goal on the only shot on goal they recorded to date.  One of them is Caps defenseman Brooks Orpik.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Vegas: Jonathan Marchessault

Jonathan Marchessault scored 27 goals last season in 77 regular season games.  He added eight goals in 20 postseason games.  None of those goals were scored against the Caps, not in the two regular season games in which he played, nor the five postseason games in which he played.  What Marchessault was last season for Vegas was consistent.  After an October in which he had three goals in eight games, he ranged between four and six goals per month over the next six months.  And, he was reasonably consistent across venues, scoring 15 of his 27 goals in 38 home games and 12 of them in 39 road games.  However, while he was not far off the 30-goal season that established him as a player to watch with the Florida Panthers in 2016-2017, there was a significant year-to-year difference in his performance.  The 30 goals he recorded with Florida two seasons ago were the result of 193 shots on goal, a 15.5 shooting percentage, 12^th among 172 skaters with at least 150 shots on goal.  Last season with Vegas he had 27 goals on 268 shots, an 10.1 shooting percentage, 103^rd among 197 players with at least 150 shots on goal.  Marchessault is looking for his first career goal against the Caps.  He is 0-5-5, even in eight games against Washington.

Washington: John Carlson

John Carlson has not let his big contract get in the way of a fine start to the season.  And he has picked up where he left off last season.  Carlson led all defensemen in points last season (68), was tied for eight in goals (15), was tied for third in assists (53), was second in power play points (32).  That led to an eight-year/$64 million contract signed in the offseason.  Through two games this season, Carlson is 2-2-4, with two power play points.  Those four points are tied for fourth among defensemen, despite having played one fewer game than the three defensemen ahead of him on Tuesday afternoon.  Those two power play points are tied for second in that group, and his 26:04 in average ice time ranks fifth.  He is one of only three defensemen in the league to average more than three minutes per game in both power play and penalty killing (Victor Hedman and Alex Edler being the others).  Carlson is looking for his first regular season career point against Vegas after being blanked in two games last season.

In the end…

The “sophomore slump” phenomenon is one generally attributed to players who slump after a successful rookie season.  The 1-2-0 start for Vegas and their struggles in both scoring offense and scoring defense make one wonder if it isn’t something to which this team will succumb this season after an historic inaugural season.  Much depends on whether all of those career years among the skaters last season are replicable, or if they were just one-offs.  And, will Max Pacioretty fill the scoring shoes of James Neal, departed for Calgary in the offseason?

Compared to the Golden Knights, the Caps are a much better known commodity in terms of their likely performance.  They had good years among many skaters last year, but it wasn’t one dominated by career years.  But the Caps do have to find a happy medium in the defensive end of the ice between the stinginess shown the Boston Bruins in the 7-0 season opening shutout and the generosity bestowed upon the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 7-6 overtime loss last Thursday.  Teams with different sets of issues makes for an interesting matchup, even if the stakes are not quite as high as they were when they last met.

Capitals 5 – Golden Knights 3

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 1

The Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals opened the defense of their championship with an uneven Week 1 of the regular season.  The banner-raising Opening Night was everything a Caps fan could hope for, from seeing the first championship banner in team history hoisted to the rafters to a thoroughly dominating 7-0 win over the Boston Bruins.  While the offense still shined in Game 2 against the Pittsburgh Penguins, the defense blew a gasket in allowing seven goals in a 7-6 overtime loss.

Record: 1-0-1

For the third straight season, the Caps opened the regular season with points in their first two games (2-0-0 last season, 1-0-1 in 2016-2017), defeating the Boston Bruins in the season opener on Wednesday night, 7-0, and then dropping a 7-6 overtime decision to the Pittsburgh Penguins on Thursday.  The win in the opener against Boston was the fifth straight season opener in which the Caps earned at least one point (3-0-2) and the sixth straight home opener in which they earned at least one point (5-0-1).

The road opener extended a string of good luck for the Caps as well, despite the overtime loss, earning a point for the fifth straight time in a road opener (3-0-2).

Offense: 6.50/game (season: 6.50/game, rank: 1^st)

The Capitals did not lack for offense in Week 1.  The 13 goals scored by the Caps in the two games was a replay of last season’s first two games in which they recorded 10 goals in their first two contests.  The difference this year was that the good times were spread more evenly.  Last season, Alex Ovechkin had seven of the team’s 10 goals in Games 1 and two, and three other Caps had a goal apiece.  This time around, T.J. Oshie led the Caps with three goals, three other Caps had two, and eight Capitals in all had at least one goal.

In the two games in Week 1, 18 skaters dressed, and 15 of them recorded points.  Six of them had at least two points including defenseman Brooks Orpik, whose goal against Pittsburgh to close the week ended a 182 game streak of regular season games without a goal dating back to February 26, 2016, when he had a goal in a 3-2 win over the Minnesota Wild.  An example of how much turnover can take place in a short amount of time, only nine skaters from that night (including Orpik) are still with the club.

Defense: 3.50/game (season: 3.50/game, rank: T-20^th)

It was all or nothing in Week 1, or more accurately, nothing or all.  The Caps held the Boston Bruins to 25 shots in the opener.  Last season they held opponents to 25 or fewer shots ten times, but only twice in their first 27 games, so this might have been taken as a good sign.

The sign was apparently drawn in pencil, because the Caps gave up 41 shots on goal to the Penguins in their 7-6 overtime loss to close the week.  The 16-shot increase in shots allowed, game to game, was the largest game to game increase in shots allowed since the Caps allowed 15 shots to the New Jersey Devils and then 31 shots to the Philadelphia Flyers (plus-16 in shots allowed) in Games 63 and 64 of the 2016-2017 season.

The Caps started poorly in one area that plagued them most of last season.  They were on the wrong side of the shot attempts at 5-on-5.  Washington was a minus-4 against the Bruins in the opener, although that was more the product of having a lead almost from the opening puck drop.  They were minus-5 when ahead, which the Caps were for all but 24 seconds in the contest.

Against Pittsburgh it was a different story.  The Caps were underwater with the game tied (minus-8), when they were in close situations (minus-10), and when they were behind (minus-5).  They managed to break even when ahead and were minus-13 for the game.

Goaltending: 3.46 / .894 / 1 SO (season: 3.46 / .894 / 1 SO)

Braden Holtby got the nod in both games of Week 1, and he started pretty much where he left off last spring.  His 25-save shutout against Boston in the opener was his first regular season shutout since he pitched a 24-save shutout in beating the New York Rangers on April 5, 2017.  The shutout snapped a personal string of 55 regular season appearances without a shutout.  It was his 33^rd career blanking, drawing him to within two shutouts of Olaf Kolzig for most in franchise history.

That run lasted one shot against Pittsburgh. Penguin defenseman Jamie Oleksiak scored on the first shot of the game, the Penguins' third, and their seventh.  Holtby ended up allowing seven goals on 41 shots in the 7-6 overtime loss.  It was the first time in Holtby’s career that he allowed as many as seven goals in a game.

Power Play: 4-8 / 50.0 percent (season: 50.0 percent, rank: T-1^st)

It took the Capitals two seconds on their first power play of the season to convert the opportunity.  Yes, it was one of those bouncing pucks that a goaltender just cannot get a handle on, but Evgeny Kuznetsov was right there to pounce on the opportunity.

And then for good measure the Caps converted on their second power play of the season, this one in a more conventional way with Alex Ovechkin one-timing a pass from the top of the left wing circle.

The Caps ended up punishing the Bruin penalty killers for four power play goals on six opportunities, those four goals coming on ten shots in 7:34 of power play ice time.  The Caps were so dominant with the man advantage that by the time they used it to build a large lead, every skater finished the game having logged some power play time.

It was a much quieter power play in the second game of the week.  The Caps enjoyed only two power plays against Pittsburgh, no power play time after the 6:13 mark of the second period.  And, they managed only two shots over the four minutes of those two man advantages (Ovechkin, John Carlson). 

Penalty Killing: 6-8 / 75.0 percent (season: 75.0 percent, rank: T-21^st)

The penalty kill was a mirror image of the power play in Week 1.  Against Boston the Caps found themselves shorthanded only twice, killing both and allowing only two shots on goal over the four minutes of shorthanded ice time.  Neither of the shots came from the dangerous David Pastrnak or Brad Marchand, each of whom had 2:03 of the Bruins four minutes of power play ice time.

It was a different story against the Penguins.  Washington was disciplined early, putting themselves a man down once in the first period (the Penguins scored on a power play goal by Jake Guentzel) and once in the second period with no damage done.  Then, the wheels came off.  Brett Connolly took a penalty 39 seconds into the period, and that was followed by penalties taken by Madison Bowey at 3:53 and by Jakub Vrana at 8:40.  The Caps killed those penalties off, but their luck ran out in overtime.  Evgeny Kuznetsov took a hooking penalty 19 seconds into the extra frame.  Just 61 seconds later, Kris Letang made the Caps pay, blunting a comeback from a two-goal deficit in the third period.

One of the more noteworthy items for the week was Kuznetsov taking a regular turn killing penalties.  His 3:49 in shorthanded ice time for the week almost equaled his entire total for last season (4:35).

Faceoffs: 52-130 / 40.0 percent (season: 40.0 percent, rank: 30^th)

It was an awful week in the circle for the Caps.  Boston has been an adept group in this phase of the game for some time, but the Caps losing 41 of 60 draws was unusual.  The 31.7 percent winning percentage was their worst since they won just 27.6 percent of their draws (16-for-58) in a 4-3 win over the St. Louis Blues on April 8, 2014.  The Caps were especially unsuccessful in the offensive zone, winning only six of 25 faceoffs (24.0 percent).  Only Brett Connolly and Andre Burakovsky were over 50 percent for the game, both players winning the only draw they took.

That performance almost made the 33-for-70 performance against Pittsburgh a dominating one.  The Caps did a better job in the offensive zone against the Penguins, but not much, going 9-for-23 (39.1 percent).  They did win the defensive zone (10-for-17/58.8 percent) the only zone they won in the two games for the week.

Individually, none of the four players taking at least ten draws for the week were as successful as 45 percent of the time.  Nicklas Backstrom was 18-for-41 (43.9 percent), but his performance was mitigated in part by a 9-for-12 (75.0 percent) performance in the defensive zone.  Lars Eller was 43.5 percent on a 10-for-23 week, but he did manage to win half of his eight offensive zone draws.

Goals by Period:

The Capitals were not only frequent in their scoring in Week 1, they spread things around nicely among the periods.  Their five first period goals ranks first in the league through Week 1, as do their five goals in the second period.  Even their three third-period goals ranks in a tie for fifth place in the league.

Here too, though, the two games were quite different, in this case the scoring early in periods.  The Caps opened Banner Night against Boston with two goals before the first period was two minutes old.  However, against the Penguins the Caps allowed a goal in the first two minutes of the first and second periods, as well as the overtime game-winner, and in the third period they allowed a goal less than three minutes into the period.

In the end…

The Caps had an eventful Week 1, what with the distractions of a banner-raising ceremony in the season opener and having to go on the road the next night to face their most bitter rival, rested and ready for their own season opener.  Getting three of four points out of that scenario is hardly the worst outcome, especially since the Caps fought back from a two-goal deficit in the third period to earn a standings point in Pittsburgh. 

The trick now will be maintaining an edge with a long layoff until they take the ice again on Wednesday against the Vegas Golden Knights, and then in another back half of a back-to-back in New Jersey against the Devils.  It is part of a stern test in which four of the first five teams that the Caps will face to open the season recorded more than 100 standings points last season, and the fifth – New Jersey – had 97 points.   So far, though, the Caps have done nicely to start the season.

Three Stars:

• First Star: T.J. Oshie (3-2-5, plus-3, 1 PPG, 1 GWG, 6 hits, 3 blocked shots
• Second Star: Nicklas Backstrom (0-4-4, plus-3, 2 PPA, 4 takeaways, no giveaways)
• Third Star: John Carlson (2-2-4, plus-4, 1 PPG, 1 PPA, 5 blocked shots, 26:04 average ice time)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 2: Capitals at Penguins, October 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals open the road portion of their season on Thursday night when they visit PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh to face the Penguins their season opener.  When last seen on this ice sheet, the Capitals were celebrating Evgeny Kuznetsov’s game-winning, series-clinching, demon-slaying overtime goal to send the Capitals to the Eastern Conference final last spring and the Pens to drown their sorrows in pickled herring.

As the teams take their first steps on this season’s journey, both are in familiar territory.  Both are thought to be contenders for a Metropolitan Division crown (the Caps have won it the past three seasons, while the Penguins finished second in those seasons).  Both will be threats to top the 100-point mark (both teams have done so the past three seasons).  Each will be eyeing the other warily in anticipation of yet another second round matchup next spring (they have met there in each of the last three postseasons).

But for now, the theme might be the unfamiliar.  The Caps take the ice in this contest as the defending Stanley Cup champion, the first time they can say that in their history, while the Penguins are starting a season without that “defending Stanley Cup champion” label, having lost their last playoff series, the first time they lost a playoff series since the New York Rangers ended their season in the first round of the 2015 playoffs.

If Pittsburgh does not return virtually its entire lineup from last season, as did the Caps, they return the essentials.  They return their top nine point-getters from last season, a group that contributed 199 of the team’s 270 goals scored last season.  Evgeni Malkin led all Penguins with 42 goals and 98 points, most in both categories since he had 50 goals and 109 points in 2011-2012.  Last season was also Malkin’s most efficient from a goal-scoring standpoint, converting a career high 17.6 percent of his shots on goal.  His success last season was due, in part, to durability he has not displayed in recent seasons.  He dressed for 78 games, more than any season since he appeared in all 82 games of the 2008-2009 season.  On the other side, he has been known to be chippy from time to time, and his 87 penalty minutes were more than he had in any season since 2009-2010, when he had 100 PIMs in 67 games.  Malkin is 18-39-57, even, in 40 career games against Washington.

Thirteen seasons, thirteen times averaging at least a point per game.  Sidney Crosby is the only player in the league to have averaged at least a point per game in every season since 2005-2006 (Malkin is second with 11 seasons, and Alex Ovechkin is third with ten).  However, it might be time to at least whisper, “is Crosby slowing down?”  Over his first nine seasons he ranged from 1.26 to 1.68 points per game and averaged 1.40 points per game over the period.  However, over the last four seasons his points per game ranged from 1.06 to 1.19 and averaged 1.11.  

“Slowing down” as it applies to Crosby is a relative thing and needs to be looked at in the context of the high performance standard he has set for more than a decade.  Over the last four seasons, only 12 players (including Crosby) have had at least one season averaging 1.11 points per game (Malkin, Nikita Kucherov, and Connor McDavid did it twice).  It is not an easy feat.  His slipping just a touch showed up in the postseason recognition, too.  He finished fifth in the voting at center for the NHL All-Star team, his lowest finish in a season in which he appeared in 50 or more games since 2007-2008, when he finished fifth.  He finished 17^th in the Hart Trophy voting, his lowest finish in a 50-plus game season since that same 2007-2008 season when he finished 17^th.  Crosby is 20-43-63, minus-2, in 45 career games against Washington.

Over a six-year period, defenseman Kris Letang finished in the top-ten in Norris Trophy voting as the league’s top defenseman five times and was a finalist once.  The only time he did not receive votes, in 2013-2014, he played in only 37 games due to injury and a heart ailment.  In each of the last two seasons, though, Letang has received no votes for the Norris, a product of his appearing in only 41 games in 2016-2017, but last year receiving no votes despite playing in 79 games, the most in a season since he dressed for all 82 games in 2010-2011.  He does have quite a resume, though.  Since he became a full-time player in 2007-2008, he ranks 11^th in goals scored by a defenseman (94) and is ninth in points (435).  But his presence was an important ingredient to Penguin success last year.  Pittsburgh was 20-4-4 in games in which Letang skated more than 26 minutes.  In 34 career games against the Caps, Letang is 5-10-15, minus-23.  Yes… minus-23.

1.  This will be the third time that the Penguins opened the home portion of their season against Washington.  They are 2-0, winning a 5-4 decision to open the 1986-1987 season and taking a 3-2 Gimmick decision to open the 2016-2017 season.

2.  If Crosby gets three points in this game, he will tie Jaromir Jagr on the Penguins’ all-time scoring list against the Capitals.  Mario Lemieux tops the list with 101 career points against the Capitals.

3.  Pittsburgh had the second best home power play last season at 26.7 percent, finishing within rounding error of the top-ranked New Jersey Devils.

4.  The Penguins were a successful team when pulling the goalie last year.  The nine goals they scored at 6-on-5 were second most in the league.  Philadelphia had ten.

5.  Pittsburgh had shooting issues on home ice.  Their 7.3 percent shooting percentage at 5-on-5 ranked 22nd in the league (source: NHL.com).

1.  Alex Ovechkin has scored more goals against the Penguins than any player in the league since he came into the league in 2005-2006, and it isn’t close.  Ovechkin has 33 career goals against Pittsburgh, while second-place Mike Knuble has 24.

2.  It would make sense, given the last item, that Nicklas Backstrom has more assists against the Penguins than any other player since 2005-2006.  He does, and that’s not close, either.  His 40 assists, accumulated since he came into the league in 2007-2008, are nine more than Claude Giroux.

3.  If Ovechkin was to record three power play points, he would tie Mike Gartner as the team’s all-time leader in power play points against the Penguins (27).

4.  Washington did not lack for power play chances against Pittsburgh last season.  No team in the league had more chances (18).  But they converted only two; only four teams had a worse success rate against the Penguins than the Caps (11.1 percent).

5.  The Caps were just about as unsuccessful killing penalties against the Pens last season.  There was the problem of too many shorthanded situations faced (19, more than any other team), and killing only 13 of them, the 68.4 percent penalty killing 20^th among teams facing the Penguins.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Pittsburgh: Matt Murray

For a guy with two Stanley Cups, this guy seems to have something to prove.  No goalie in his first three seasons appeared in more postseason games than Murray (44), but that really is not the issue, at least entirely.  After winning Cups in his first two  seasons, he made Marc-Andre Fleury expendable and eventually available in the expansion draft, where he was taken by the Vegas Golden Knights.  His third season did not follow the script, though.  He missed seven games in two different chunks to injury, and he was absent for six games for family reasons, dressing for a total of 49 games in the regular season.  He was not especially effective, his .907 save percentage ranking 37^th of 45 goalies with at least 1,500 minutes of ice time, and his 2.92 goals against average ranking 31sdt in that group.  He was hardly better in the postseason, his .908 save percentage ranking 11^th of 20 goalies with at least 100 minutes, and his 2.43 goals against average ranking eighth.  Perhaps with less misfortune than he endured last season he will rebound to reach the elite level expected of him.  It is hard to see how the Penguins go deep in the spring without him approaching that level.  Murray is 4-4-0, 3.66, .882 in eight appearances against the Capitals.

Washington: Braden Holtby

The schedule makers did the Caps no favors giving them a back-to-back set of games to open the season.  That they will have six days off before taking the ice for Game 3 on the schedule suggests that Braden Holtby will get the call in Pittsburgh after starting on Opening Night.  It might be worth noting that while Holtby did start consecutive games once last season, he did not finish consecutive games.  He was pulled 21 minutes into a 3-1 loss to the New York Islanders after allowing three goals on 12 shots on December 11^th, and then he followed that up the next night with a 22-save effort in a 5-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche.  He has not started and finished back-to-back games since he stopped 22 shots in a 4-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche on February 6, 2016, followed by a 33-save gem in a 3-2 win over the Philadelphia Flyers.  Holtby is 8-9-2, 2.90, .911, with two shutouts in 20 career appearances against the Penguins.

In the end…

Opening Night was emotion on steroids for the Capitals.  The red carpet, the crowd, the banner raising.  One wonders what the Caps will have in the tank on a night following such a scene.  It will be something of an odd season opener for the Penguins in that for the first time in three seasons they do not have a banner raising of their own.  This might be a game played on raw dislike for one another, the Pens wanting to send a message that the Caps can count on being “one-and-done” as far as championships go, and the Caps, well…because  it’s the Penguins.  It is always interesting between these teams, and this should be no different.

Capitals 3 – Penguins 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 1: The Banner Raising, Bruins at Capitals, October 3rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

One year ago, we wrote these words on the eve of the 2017-2018 NHL season…

"About 250 days from now, National Hockey League Commissioner Gary Bettman will stand at center ice in one of the league’s 31 arenas and present the captain of the league champion with the Stanley Cup.  The one wish that all of Capitals Nation shares is that wherever that might be, the captain to whom that Cup is presented represents the Washington Capitals."

And so he did.  On June 7, 2018, Commissioner Gary Bettman stood in T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas and presented the Stanley Cup to the Captain of the Washington Capitals.

The days with the Cup are memories, the rings have been presented to the players, and the last bit of business concerning the 2017-2018 season – the raising of the Stanley Cup banner to the rafters of Capital One Arena will take place in a ceremony on Wednesday night preceding the season opener against the Boston Bruins.

And then the puck will drop to herald the Season of Defense of the Stanley Cup.  The Bruins are an interesting opponent with which to open the season.  Their season following a Stanley Cup victory in 2011 serves as a lesson and a warning.  Boston had their banner night spoiled by the Philadelphia Flyers to open the 2011-2012 season, and then they stumbled to a 3-7-0 record in their first ten games. 

Perhaps it was being a prideful bunch, perhaps it was just one of those things, but the Bruins then went on a tear, winning ten in a row, earning points in 15 straight games (14-0-1), and eventually posting a record of 29-7-2 over a 38-game stretch after their ten-game start before they would lose consecutive games again.  But it was clearly a case of peaking too early.  The Bruins faltered late, going just 14-11-2 in their last 27 games before bowing out to the Capitals in seven games of the opening round of the 2012 playoffs.

Avoiding a poor start, not peaking too early, playing with a measure of consistency over the course of the season.  These will be things to watch for as the Capitals set forth in defense of their Stanley Cup championship.

They will do it against a team that won 50 games last season, the tenth time in Bruins history that they hit the 50-win mark.  They did not come by their wins by accident.  They were one of only four teams last season to finish in the top-ten in scoring offense (3.26 goals per game/sixth) and scoring defense (2.57/fourth).  Vegas Nashville, and Winnipeg were the others.  They were the only team to finish in the top-five in both power play (23.5 percent/fourth) and penalty kill (83.7 percent/third).  They held opponents to 29.3 shots per game (second in the league), and they had the second-best shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 (53.71; source: NHL.com).

Boston had three 30-goal scorers last season.  Only Toronto had as many.  All three return for the Bruins.  David Pastrnak led the club with 35 goals, his second consecutive season topping the 30-goal mark. He finished the 2017-2018 season strong, posting 12 goals in his last 17 games.  Brad Marchand posted a third straight season with more than 30 goals, joining Alex Ovechkin and Vladimir Tarasenko as the only players in the league with more than 30 goals in each of their last three seasons.  Since Marchand came into the league in 2009-2010, he is one of four players in the league to record at least 225 goals (226) and at least 500 penalty minutes (578).  Corey Perry (275 goals/761 PIMs), Evgeni Malkin (255/575), and Jamie Benn (254/504) are the others.

On defense, Zdeno Chara returns for a 21^st season, his 13^th with the Bruins.  He enters the season his sweater number (“33”rd) in all-time regular season games played (1,423).  No active defenseman is within 300 games of him (Jay Bouwmeester has 1,106).  For what it is worth, he and Marc Edouard Vlasic are the only defensemen in the league over the last ten years to have appeared in at least 50 games nine times and not had a “minus” season (not including the abbreviated 2012-2013 season).

In goal, the Washington will be hoping to extend Tuukka Rask’s personal misfortune at the hand of the Caps.  Consider that against 29 other clubs, Rask has a career record of 237-127-48, 2.22, .923, with 40 shutouts.  Against the Caps, though, that record is 1-10-5, 3.07, .889, with his only win coming via shutout, that coming in March 2014 in Boston (and he faced only 16 shots).  He has lost his last nine decisions to the Caps (0-7-2, 3.13, .888).

1.  No player in league history has won more Selke Trophies as the league’s top defensive forward than Patrice Bergeron.  He has four, tied with Hall of Famer Bob Gainey, who is the only player in league history to win the award in four consecutive seasons (1977-1978 through 1980-1981).

2.  Except for his rookie season and the 2007-2008 season in which he played in only ten games, Bergeron has received votes for the Lady Byng Trophy (gentlemanly play) in each of his other 12 seasons in the league.  He has never won it.

3.  Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak each have exactly 449 appearances in goal in the NHL.  Rask has done it only as a member of the Bruins.  Boston is Halak’s fifth NHL club.

4.  If David Krejci gets four assists in the opener, he will reach the 400 assist mark in his career.  Four helpers, and David Backes will have 300.  If either of these guys gets four assists, it’s probably not a good night for the Caps.

5.  If the Caps are hoping to get a boost from their power play in the opener, good luck.  Boston allowed only 21 power play goals on the road last season.  Only Edmonton allowed fewer (17).

1.  The Capitals had 15 different players record game-winning goals out of a total of 46 last season.  Evgeny Kuznetsov led the club with eight.

2.  Tom Wilson had 187 penalty minutes last season, a career high.  That was almost as many penalty minutes as the next four Capitals combined.  Brooks Orpik (68), Kuznetsov (48), Nicklas Backstrom (46), and Devante Smith-Pelly (38) combined for 200 penalty minutes.

3.  Last season, 30 players in the league recorded 25 or more power play points.  The Capitals had four of them – John Carlson (32), Alex Ovechkin (31), Kuznetsov (30), and Backstrom (26).  No other team had as many.

4.  The Capitals had the worst shot attempts-for percentage of any Eastern Conference playoff team in last year’s regular season (47.98 percent/12^th of 16 teams).

5.  The last time a goalie other than Braden Holtby or Philipp Grubauer appeared in a Capitals game was March 28, 2015.  Justin Peters relieved Braden Holtby, who allowed three goals on 13 shots in 14:47.  Peters stopped 13 of 14 shots and earned the decision in 4-3 loss to the Nashville Predators.  Fans hope the streak continues a bit longer before Pheonix Copley gets his first action with the club.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Boston:  Danton Heinen

Of all the returning Bruins, only David Pastrnak appeared in more games (82) than did center Danton Heinen last season (77).  He gets far less press than Pastrnak or Brad Marchand or Patrice Bergeron or Zdeno Chara, but he was effective in a comparatively anonymous role.  Heinen tied for fifth in goals (16, with Jake DeBrusk), finished fifth in assists (31), fifth in points (47), and did it while averaging only 15:01 in ice time a night (seventh among forwards appearing in at least 40 games).  He was part of a large rookie skater class for the Bruins, five of whom dressed for more than 60 games and eleven getting a sweater at least once last season.  Heinen was one of five Bruins rookies with two power play goals, and his 12 power play points led all Boston rookies.  He is 0-4-4, minus-1, in three career games against the Caps coming into this season.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

It figures that on a night of pomp and pageantry, as the Stanley Cup championship banner is raised to the Capital One Arena rafters, Nicklas Backstrom will be in quiet pursuit of a personal milestone.  His first point this season will give him 800 in his career, making him the 12^th player active on Opening Night (should he do it) to reach the 800-point mark in his career.  And it is not just at the offensive end in which he has shined.  Except for the 2011-2012 season, when he missed 40 games to a concussion, and the 2013-2014 season, Backstrom has won votes for the Selke Trophy (to defensive forward) in each of his other nine seasons in the NHL (highest finish: seventh in 2016-2017).  

And there are other milestones on Backstrom's to-do list.  Should he get the game-winning goal in this contest, it would be his 34^th career game-winner, breaking a tie with Bengt Gustafsson for fourth place on the franchise list.  Sometime in mid-season, he would likely catch and pass Mike Ridley for fourth place all-time on the Caps’ goal scoring list (he needs ten to pass Ridley).  With 27 points he will pass Peter Bondra for second on the all-time franchise list.  And, he is already the team’s all-time leader in plus-minus, his plus-118 being two points better than Rod Langway.  Backstrom is 7-29-36, plus-13, in 34 career games against Boston.

In the end…

Opening Night is, in a way, the end of the 2017-2018 season.  It is a celebration unlike any other this franchise has had, and this being their time at this sort of thing, unlike any they will ever have in the future, even if that future holds more championships.  There will be time enough to scrutinize Todd Reirden’s personnel decisions, this or that player’s effort, whether Braden Holtby allowed a “soft” goal.  This night is not really that time.  But it is the last page of the last chapter of that special season.  When that page is turned and the book closed, it will be time to get down to the real business of defending the Cup.

But for heaven’s sake…enjoy this night.

Capitals 4 – Bruins 2

Washington Capitals 2018-2019 Previews -- Into the Unknown

“Prepare for the unknown by studying how others in the past have 
coped with the unforeseeable and the unpredictable.”

-- George S. Patton

“Washington Capitals, Stanley Cup Champions.”  

It will never get old.  But it is also a starting point for a journey into the unknown, a road on which this franchise has never traveled.  How do the first-time winners of a Stanley Cup navigate their way to a second championship?  That is what the next six months are about, how to manage being the prey and not the predator, being chased instead of doing the chasing.

If last season was an expression of how a team can put together by coming together in ways that previous editions of the club could not, even with superior talent, the 2018-2019 Capitals will be a study in how a club might use the same on-ice formula to achieve the same result.  These Capitals are, almost in every part, the same club that won last year.  But where they differ most might be most important, especially as they start the season.

Coaching

Gone are head coach Barry Trotz, Assistant Coach Lane Lambert, and Director of Goaltending Mitch Korn, all off to assume similar duties with the New York Islanders.  Enter new head coach Todd Reirden (promoted from Associate Coach), and assistants Scott Arniel and Reid Cashman.  Reirden has previous head coaching experience (two seasons with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in the AHL), while Arniel spent a season and a half as head coach of the Columbus Blue Jackets.  The new group has several challenges in the short and the longer term. 

The first is shaking off any hangover effects (figuratively and literally, given the gusto with which the Caps celebrated their Stanley Cup win).  Why is that important?  As far back as 2013, slow starts and their impacts on making the postseason were a thing.  The point is that falling off the playoff pace, even by a few points, over the first month of the season can kill a team’s playoff dreams.

The second challenge is finding the right mix of not fixing what isn’t broken, this being a defending Stanley Cup champion, putting the coaches’ own imprint on the club in terms of style and philosophy, and being able to apply a critical eye to things that the club might not have done well last season in spite of the success they enjoyed.  One thing to look for.  It took a while for the Caps to settle on forward lines, Barry Trotz being something of a persistent mixologist in that regard at times.  But settle they did.  Will those lines remain intact through the early going?

Forwards

The Caps are three-deep, three-across on their forward lines.  Washington has among the best top-nine forwards in the league with Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom, and Lars Eller centering wingers Alex Ovechkin, Jakub Vrana, and Andre Burakovsky on the left side, and Tom Wilson, T.J. Oshie, and Brett Connolly on the right side.  It is not a group without questions, though. There is health.  Oshie missed eight games last season to a concussion and plainly felt the after effects in the weeks immediately following his return.  His susceptibility to that kind of injury will be a concern.

An entirely different health concern surrounds Tom Wilson, that being the degree to which he impacts the health of opponents with play outside the rules.  He is likely to face a season-opening suspension of some length after his open ice hit on St. Louis forward Oskar Sundqvist in the team’s last preseason game.  It would be Wilson’s fourth suspension in just over a year.  A top line right winger cannot be missing productive time to those sorts of antics over a season if the team is to succeed.  Vrana and Burakovsky have immense talent, but both have had episodes of inconsistency that have to be addressed.  Ovechkin turned 33 years old in September, and for those who think there is another 50-goal season in his sticks, only three players in NHL history have hit the 50-goal mark having reached their 33^rd birthday. 

The new blood among the forwards will be on the fourth line, where a spot opened up when Jay Beagle signed as a free agent with the Vancouver Canucks.  Travis Boyd appeared to have a good shot at nailing down that slot, but he opens the season “week-to-week” with a lower body injury suffered against St. Louis in a preseason game.  That creates an opportunity for Nic Dowd, who came to the Caps over the summer with 131 games of NHL experience with two clubs.  The question here, whether it is Boyd (later) or Dowd (now) filling Beagle’s slot is whether they can be as effective killing penalties and/or winning faceoffs.

The remaining questions might qualify as “Stanley Cup Champ Problems,” but there is the matter of whether Chandler Stephenson continues his improvement and/or Devante Smith-Pelly shakes off whatever that mysterious reason was for his being held out for much of the preseason and provides some consistent, even if modest production.

Defense

Like the forwards, this is largely a set group on paper.  Matt Niskanen and Dmitry Orlov on the top pair, John Carlson and Michal Kempny on the second pa—oh, wait.  Kempny was flattened by St. Louis’ Robert Bortuzzo in a preseason game (suspended for two preseason games and one regular season game) and is uncertain to start the season.  How that might shake up the pairs is an early personnel challenge.  Will the Brooks Orpik/Christian Djoos third pair be broken up?  Will Jonas Siegenthaler (who had a fine training camp) or Madison Bowey get a sweater, either with Carlson or with one of Orpik or Djoos?  If you don’t want to suffer that slow start that puts you in a hole from which you are not likely to emerge, an early injury on the second pair is not the way to start the season.  But that aside, what was the most uncertain group among the Caps going into last season – the defense – might be the most stable as this season unfolds.

Goaltending

From 2014-2015 through 2016-2017, Braden Holtby averaged 67 starts per season.  Last season he had 54 starts, Philipp Grubauer picking up the slack when Holtby suffered a curious late-season slump.  Whether Holtby can be productive at something closer to his three-season/67 start average, instead of a volume of starts in the mid-50’s could be the difference between making and missing the postseason. 

The reason is that Grubauer has moved on the Colorado Avalanche, and the Caps will start the season with a virtually untested backup in Pheonix Copley (two career NHL appearances, both with St. Louis).  Grubauer was among the best backup goalies in the game last season, and his play allowed the Caps to ease Holtby into the 2017-2018 schedule with a “two-on/one-off” over Washington’s first dozen games before going to a “three-on/one-off” over the next 16 games.  Something to look for here is just how much of a load that the new coaching staff places on Holtby and how they try to “shelter” Copley in terms of opponent and/or venue, if at all, to break him into the new role as goaltending backup.

Special Teams

Legend has it that Vince Lombardi, upon being named head coach of the Green Bay Packers of the NFL, installed his “power sweep” as the first play in his playbook.  Elegant in its simplicity, everyone knew what it was, who had what role, and when one could expect it to be unleashed, and yet few teams could stop it.  The secret was talent and execution.

So it is with the power play of the Capitals.  The fan in the last row of the stands knows the formation, the guy standing in line at the concession stand looks at the TV feed and knows that the puck is eventually going to make its way to either Alex Ovechkin (almost all the time) or to the middle of the 1-3-1 set, but no one can seem to stop it with any regularity.  Since Blaine Forsythe is returning as an assistant coach, and he had responsibility for the power play, one expects that the Caps will use talent and execution to dare opponents to stop what they know is coming.  When you ponder that Nicklas Backstrom and Evgeny Kuznetsov are among the most talented and creative passers in the league, that Ovechkin is as dependable as the sun rising in the east in shooting from his left wing faceoff circle “office,” that T.J. Oshie has a sneaky right-handed release that makes him the perfect trigger man in the middle, and that John Carlson has improved immensely in being able to tee-up Ovechkin for one-timers, it would seem folly to think that the Caps’ power play will be any less productive this season than in recent seasons past.

As for the penalty killers, this might be the single area in which improvement would be welcome.  Over the last five seasons the Caps have lingered in the low 80’s in penalty killing efficiency for the most part, finishing at 80.3 percent last season, 15^th in the league.  Part of the problem is the sheer volume of shorthanded situations they have to kill.  They had the seventh-highest number of shorthanded situations faced last season, and over the last five seasons they are tied for third in the number of such situations faced (1,347; with Detroit).  Limiting those situations would provide some relief to what might be a somewhat different penalty killing look with Beagle gone, and it would provide some relief for Holtby and Copley as they sort out their respective workloads over the course of the season.

The Schedule

Every fan will find fault or bias with what the schedule maker does with his teams’ 82 games, but there are some thing to note about the Caps’ schedule.  First, they are tested early.  Their first five games are against playoff teams from last season (Boston, Pittsburgh, Vegas, New Jersey, and Toronto).  After getting a comparative breather against the Rangers and Florida at home, they then go off on their first long road trip, including the always treacherous three-game swing through western Canada (Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary) before wrapping up their trip in Montreal.  If there is a break there, the Caps do not have to go through western Canada on one of those three-games-in-four-nights runs.  They get three days between Vancouver and Calgary and then two days before facing Edmonton.  Four days after that they visit Montreal.

The Caps get 13 back-to-back sets of games, two of them coming right out of the gate to open the season, against Boston and at Pittsburgh to open the schedule, and then six days later they host Vegas before visiting New Jersey the following night.  After those two back-to-backs, the Caps have two such sets in November, two in December, three in January, three in February, and one in March.

February includes a critical part of the schedule.  The Caps will have their longest road trip of the season in that month, a six-game trip that will include the Caps’ annual west coast trip to San Jose, Anaheim,m and Los Angeles.  The games in Anaheim and Los Angeles will be one of the back-to-back sets.

Washington has only one schedule home-and-home series this season, that coming in late March against the Carolina Hurricanes.

Depth

As set as the Caps roster is, there will be instances in which depth will be tested.  Last season the Caps dressed 19 forwards and ten defensemen in the regular season.  It begs the question who among the Hershey Bears might be called upon to fill in the gaps when they (hopefully infrequently) occur?  If Jonas Siegenthaler does not make the parent roster out of training camp, or even if he is reassigned to Hershey upon the return of Michal Kempny, he appears to have played his way into being at the head of the line for a call-up if needed on the defense.  That he is waiver-exempt makes him perhaps a more attractive call-up option than, say, an Aaron Ness.

Among the forwards there is a lot of intriguing possibility – Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, Shane Gersich, Sergei Shumakov, Brian Pinho, and even “veteran” prospects Liam O’Brien and Riley Barber.  There does not appear to be a potential game-breaker in the bunch, but as a group they offer an interesting set of possibilities as role players.  It would seem that how Hershey gets out of the blocks in the AHL schedule could provide an indication who among this group would be suited to at least exposure to the NHL.  But for now, it is a group with many blanks to fill in.

Fearless’ Take… Sometimes, it is possible to overthink a thing.  One can pay too much attention to old sayings as “if you’re not moving forward, you’re moving backward.”  It is easy to forget just how good this club was to end the 2017-2018 season.  They went 12-3-0 to close the regular season, and then they went 16-8 in the postseason, a combined 28-11-0, a 118-point pace against some very stiff competition.  That team returns almost intact, with Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie, John Carlson, Matt Niskanen, and Braden Holtby in their competitive prime; and youngsters like Jakub Vrana, Andre Burakovsky, Dmitry Orlov, and Christian Djoos with more experience than they brought to battle last season.  Even among the coaches, Todd Reirden is familiar with the players, the systems, and the management.  Scott Arniel has head coaching experience.  This is a new coaching staff, but it is not one lacking in experience such as the Adam Oates staff of 2012-2013.  One might say that the Caps undertook a “stand pat” approach to this season, but that might be only a superficial way of looking at things.  Even with almost the same personnel, this is a team that might improve.

Cheerless’ Take… Yeah, hold on to that dream, cuz.  This was a team that nobody had getting out of the East last year, a team with inferior personnel to the teams that won consecutive Presidents Trophies.  Yeah, they got hot when it mattered, but is “hot” the same as “good?”  Caps fans don’t much care; last year’s Cup is won.  But Ovechkin and Backstrom are a year older, Oshie has that concussion thing, Wilson is Wilsonning all over the place again, and what’s Plan B if Holtby has another slump?  What if the light bulb doesn’t go on over Vrana’s or Burakovsky’s head?  What if Carlson had his best year last year and goes to seed after getting the big contract?  What if Todd Reirden is more Scott Gordon than Scotty Bowman?  What if the team took too many keg stands?  There is just so much that can go wrong.

In the end…

We have a suspicion that folks are going to have a really good idea of who the 2018-2019 Caps are in the first 20 games.  If there is a hangover, that hole is going to be mighty steep to dig out of.  And the early schedule is difficult.  If they can get through that first 20 games in a solid playoff position, it would be a reflection of the veteran, professional character of the club.  There would be every reason to believe that all other things equal (as we cross our fingers hoping there will be few injuries), the Caps will find the postseason once more. 

What the Caps did last spring was unconventional.  Every series was its own story; every series had its own unique adversity to be conquered. This year brings an entirely new set of challenges of a sort never faced by any club in franchise history. If the Caps are to take their place among the model franchises of the last 15 years, those that have won multiple Cups – Chicago, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh – they will have to cope with the unforeseen and unpredictable, knowing that was achieved once, as hard as it might have been, will be harder to achieve again.

Prediction: 48-25-9, 105 points, first Metropolitan Division

Photo: AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin