The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 20: Canadiens at Capitals: November 24

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It is Thanksgiving Week, and that means Washington Capitals hockey at Capital One Arena.  The Caps kick off their pre and post Thanksgiving set of games with a matchup against the Montreal Canadiens on Wednesday night.  The Caps, smarting from a 5-2 loss to the Seattle Kraken to close their four-game west coast road trip, return home for their first game at Capital One in ten days. 

Meanwhile, the Canadiens are hitting the road after splitting a two-game home stand.  To say the road has been unkind to the Habs is an understatement.  Montreal comes to Washington tied for the fewest points earned on the road (three, with Ottawa and Seattle) and lowest road points percentage in the league(.167) with their 1-7-1 record.  What’s more, the Canadiens come to Washington a depleted team with nine players on their injured list and seven of them on injured reserve.

There is no mystery about the Canadiens’ poor road record.  They can’t score (1.89 goals per game/31^st in the league), and they can’t keep other teams from scoring (3.56 goals allowed per game/22^nd).  The anemic offense reflects a lack of volume production despite a certain amount of balance in goal scoring.  Twelve skaters have recorded goals on the road, but nine of them have a single goal to their record.  Mike Hoffman and Josh Anderson lead the team in road goals with three apiece. 

With Hoffman out for the three-game road trip Montreal will begin in DC with an upper-body injury,  Anderson is left as the leading road goal scorer.  Anderson is in his second season with the Canadiens, working on a seven-year contract paying him $38.5 million over its term.  Anderson was Montreal’s second leading goal scorer last season with 17 in 52 games, but this year his production has dropped off – four goals in 20 games overall – and he is in a slump that sees him with one goal and two assists with a minus-9 rating over his last nine games.  His minus-12 rating to date is already his worst career number in that category.  Anderson is 0-1-1, minus-5, in 16 career games against the Capitals. That zero in goals scored against Washington comes on 41 shots on goal, the third highest number he has against any opponent (he has seven goals on 50 shots against Ottawa and eight goals on 72 shots against Toronto).

Defenseman Ben Chiarot is on a pace to set a career best in goals scored this season.  Granted, he has never cracked the ten-goal threshold in his eight seasons before this one (his career high is nine with Montreal in 69 games in 2019-2020), but his four goals in 20 games is more than the rest of the Montreal defense combined (Chris Wideman has two, and Alexander Romanov has one).  Montreal has had more success in Chiarot’s four games with a goal (2-1-1) than they have had Tyler Toffoli’s four games with a goal (we will get to that below), but with Chiarot, ice time is the thing.  Montreal is 4-6-0 in games in which he skated less than 23 minutes, but they are just 1-7-2 when he skated more than 23 minutes.  Chiarot is 3-3-6, plus-3, in 11 career games against Washington.

1.  Montreal’s special teams are hardly special.  Their road power play (7.4 percent) ranks 31^st in the league, while their penalty kill (73.0 percent) ranks 26^th.  Their special teams index (power play plus penalty kill) of 80.4 ranks 29^th in the league.

2.  Montreal finishes poorly in the defensive end of the ice. Their 24 second period goals allowed are second-most in the league, while their 26 third period goals allowed are most in the league.

3.  Montreal has nine losses by three or more goals, most in the league.

4.  The Canadiens are one of two teams (the New York Islanders are the other) without a one-goal win this season.

5.  If faceoff volumes are an indicator of game flow and pace, Montreal seems to play in quicksand. The 1,133 faceoffs they have taken are most in the league. But practice hasn’t made perfect.  Their 48.0 winning percentage ranks 25^th in the league.

1.  This will be the first instance this season in which the Caps had three days between games.

2.  The Caps like wrist shots.  Their 39 goals on wristers lead the league.  Their 11.4 percent shooting on wrist shots is third in the league.

3.  Sixteen of 22 skaters to dress for the Caps on home ice have goals.  The surprises who do not?  Lars Eller and Dmitry Orlov.

4.  Three Caps have been on ice for more than ten even strength goals on home ice.  The “who” is hardly surprising – Alex Ovechkin (13), Tom Wilson (12), and Evgeny Kuznetsov (11).

5.  Garnet Hathaway defends the house from evil doers.  His 13.48 credited hits per 60 minutes at home lead the team by a comfortable margin (Nic Dowd: 7.77 among players appearing in more than two home games).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Montreal: Tyler Toffoli

Tyler Toffoli was Montreal’s leading goal scorer last season with 28 tallies in 52 games, but this season he has four in 20 games, a 16-goal pace over a full season.  His shooting efficient has fallen off a cliff, his 7.7 shooting percentage a full ten points lower than what he posted last season (17.7).  It is out of character for Toffoli, who has been a ten percent or better shooter in each of his three stops in the NHL (10.2 with Los Angeles, 15.8 with Vancouver, and 15.2 to date with Montreal).  Part of the problem for Toffoli might be in shot selection, or more to the point, getting shots on goal.  He is averaging just 2.60 shots per game, the third-lowest average of his career and quite a drop from the 3.04 shots per game he posted with the Canadiens last season, the second-highest average of his career.  Toffoli has had a pair of six-game streaks without a goal this season, the most recent one snapped when he potted an empty netter in Montreal’s 6-3 win over Nashville last Saturday.  His last goal against a goaltender was on November 6^th in a 5-2 loss to the Vegas Golden Knights.  But perhaps the strangest fact in Toffoli’s goal scoring this season is that the Canadiens are 1-3-0 in games in which he scored a goal.  They were 14-4-4 in games in which he scored a goal last season.  Toffoli is 2-5-7, even, in 14 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Justin Schultz

In some respects, Justin Schultz is a “was” defenseman.  He “was” a decent goal scorer once upon a time, but he hasn’t topped ten goals since 2016-2017 (he has two ten-plus goal seasons in his career); he hasn’t had more than five goals since that same season (he has four in his career).  He has three 30-plus point seasons, but none since 2016-20187 (51). He had 27 points last season, but that was his first 20-plus point season since 2017-2018 (27 points with Pittsburgh).  He had ten power play goals in his first five seasons, but he has two in his last five seasons, including this one.  He averaged more than 20 minutes in ice time five times in his career, but in no season since 2018-2019 (20:30).  Part of the problem is he is a right-handed defenseman stuck behind John Carlson on the depth chart, but even with that, Schultz has one goal and one assist in 19 games so far this season, the two points being the fewest among the six defensemen to suit up for more than two games so far this season for the Caps.  The goal he has was a game-winner, but there is a “was” quality to that, too.  It came on a power play on Opening Night in the Caps’ 5-1 win over the New York Rangers.  Schultz is 0-2-2, minus-1, in 16 career games against Montreal.

In the end…

No NHL team should be taken lightly, and that means the Caps need to pay particular attention to detail and effort.  They will be facing a team beaten up by injuries, including both goaltenders – Jake Allen and Carey Price – listed as “day-to-day” with injuries, and their road schedule in which they have not scored more than two goals in more than a month (a 4-0 win in San Jose against the Sharks on October 28^th).  Early and persistent pressure will be key for the Caps to take the Canadiens out of the game, but in this league, you cannot sit on leads, either.  “60-minute” effort is not just a buzz term, it is essential for success, even against struggling teams.

Capitals 5 - Canadiens 2

 

Programming note… we will be off for a few days and will resume posting this weekend.  In the meantime… GO CAPS!!!

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 6

The Washington Capitals finished a second consecutive week without suffering a loss in regulation time and did it while beating a bitter rival and then heading to the road for a trio of games on the west coast.  It was a challenging week, to be sure, and the Caps met that challenge about as well as one could hope.

Record (3-0-1)

The 0-2-1 record of Week 4 seems long ago after the Caps put together a 3-0-0 record in Week 5 and a 3-0-1 record this past week.  They tied the Calgary Flames for the most points earned for the week and left them one point behind Carolina for the lead in the Metropolitan Division. When they beat Pittsburgh on home ice in the first game of the week, it would be the only home game of the week, and they wrapped it up with the seventh-best home record by standings points (5-1-3/13 points) and the eighth-best record by points percentage (.722).  They went 2-0-1 in the first three games of their west coast road trip to finish Week 6 tied for the third-best road record by points (14/6-1-2) and third in points percentage (.778).

Offense: 3.50 / game (season: 3.44 / 6th)

It was a solid week of work on the offensive side of the puck for the Caps.  They outscored their season average by a small margin, but what was noteworthy was the balance.  Eight players recorded goals, led by Conor Sheary and Garnet Hathaway with three apiece.  Hathaway finished the week with five goals in his five most recent games, including a pair of two-goal games.  Fifteen of the 21 skaters to dress for the week posted points, led by John Carlson (0-7-7).  Carlson’s week enabled him to jump into a tie for second place in total scoring among defensemen (3-13-16) with Adam Fox and Victor Hedman, one point behind Roman Josi.  Carlson and his frequent partner, Martin Fehervary, led the team with a plus-7 rating for the week.  The shooting results took on a bit of an odd look.  No surprise that Alex Ovechkin led with 12 shots on goal, but three other Caps one would not associate with high shot volumes also posted double-digit shot totals – Hathaway (11), Daniel Sprong (11), and Fehervary (10).

Defense: 1.00 / game (season: 2.17 / 3^rd)

The scoring defense for the Caps has been remarkable over the season to date.  It was on full display in Week 6 with only three goals allowed and 29.0 shots allowed per game, third fewest in the league for the week.  It was not quite as good a week in terms of shot attempts, where the Caps finished 13th for the week in shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 (51.7 percent).  The best part of the week on defense came in two-parts.  First, no Capital was on ice for more than two goals against at even strength.  Only four players were on ice for a pair of goals at evens – Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Garnet Hathaway.  Second, no Capital had a minus on-ice goal differential at even strength.

Goaltending: 0.98 / .964 (season: 2.27 / .916)

It would be hard to have a better week of goaltending than what Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek assembled in Week 6.  Vanecek was 1-0-1, 1.94, .929 in two games, and he was the worse of the two netminders.  Samsonov was 2-0-0, stopping all 56 shots he faced in two games to post his second and third shutouts of the season.  Of 41 goalies playing at least 60 minutes for the week, Samsonov and Vanecek finished tied for first and 11^th, respectively, in goals against average, and tied for first and 19^th, respectively, in save percentage. Samsonov was one of five goalies for the week to post a perfect 1.000 save percentage at even strength, but he did it facing 44 shots at evens, more than twice as many as any of the other four goalies.

Power Play: 2-for-8 / 25.0 percent (season: 17.9 percent / 19th)

It was a decent, if not exceptional week for the Caps’ power play, but it was the best week since Week 3, when they were 3-for-11 (27.3 percent).  Ovechkin and Tom Wilson were the power play goal scorers, and John Carlson, T.J. Oshie, and Evgeny Kuznetsov added assists, Carlson recording a pair.  Ovechkin (six), Kuznetsov (four), and Wilson recorded the power play shots on goal.  Ovechkin and Kuznetsov each logged more than ten minutes in power play ice time with 10:45 and 10:26, respectively.  Ovechkin finished the week as the only player in the league to have logged more than 90 percent of his team’s power play ice time (94.8 percent).

Penalty Killing: 8-for-8 / 100.0 percent (season: 85.1 percent / 10th)

Perfect week.  The four games without allowing a power play goal in Week 6 extended the Caps’ streak of games without allowing a power play goal to eight, and their streak of shorthanded situations killed to 18.  Making it even better was a shorthanded goal scored by Martin Fehervary to open the scoring in the Caps’ 6-1 win over Pittsburgh in the first game of the week.  Which leads to the odd statistic of the week.  The Caps had two shorthanded shots on goal, both by defensemen – Fehervary and Nick Jensen.  Nic Dowd led all skaters in shorthanded ice time with 3:26 for the week. Jensen led defensemen with 2:22.

Faceoffs: 94-for-226 / 41.6 percent (45.8 percent / 30th)

Faceoffs remain a challenge for the Caps, who finished 29^th in the league in Week 6 with a 41.6 winning percentage.  Six players took at least ten draws for the Caps, and only one – Lars Eller – finished over 50 percent, and that by a single win (9-for-17/52.9 percent).  The Caps were under 45 precent in all three zones, posting identical 30-for-89 marks (43.5 percent) in the offensive and neutral zones, and going just 34-for-88 (38.6 percent) in the defensive zone.  Individual faceoffs do not exert much influence on results, and even a game-to-game pattern does not affect results to a significant degree, but there is a disturbing absence of attention to detail that makes one wonder if the Caps would have the capacity to succeed on draws in critical moments.  Nic Dowd and Lars Eller maintain season winning percentages over 50 percent (54.3 and 51.1 percent, respectively), but the performance drops off quite a bit after that. 

Goals by Period

The Caps dominated third period in Week 6, outscoring their four opponents, 8-1.  The eight goals scored led the league for the week, and the one goal allowed was bested only by Boston and Carolina, who allowed no third period goals in fewer games played.  The Caps finished the week a top-five team in scoring in each regulation period – 19 first period goals (fourth), 21 second period goals (tied for second with three other teams), and 22 third period goals (fourth).  Florida is the only other top-five team in scoring in each period through six weeks.

Year-over-Year

What leaps off the page in the year-over-year comparison is scoring defense.  Through 18 games this season, the Caps are 22 goals allowed better than last season at the same 18-game point.  And it shows up in shot attempts allowed at even strength, where the Caps have shaved 70 shot attempts off last year’s total through 18 games. Where the Caps need improvement is the power play, which is performing well below last year’s shite-hot pace through 18 games.  As far as the penalty kill is concerned, the Caps get a two-fer here.  An improved penalty killing percentage and fewer shorthanded situations faced.

In the end…

On cannot say how the Caps will perform when they are back to full health, but what they have done during the absence of scoring line forwards – Nicklas Backstrom, Anthony Mantha, T.J. Oshie – has put them in a position to contend, not just for a postseason spot, but for a high seed as well.  Youngsters have performed above what might be expected, and whether they get significant minutes going forward, players such as Brett Leason, Aliaksei Protas, Garrett Pilon, and Axel Jonsson-Fjallby have shown that the Caps might have depth to cope with unforeseen events down the road.  And the young goaltenders have been very good in recent appearances, especially Ilya Samsonov, who might be finding that consistency the team needs.  But for now, the Week 6 results show that the Caps are no fluke.  They are, at this point of the season, one of the league’s best squads overall.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Ilya Samsonov (2-0-0, 0.00, 1.000, 2 shutouts)
• Second Star: Garnet Hathaway (3-1-4, plus-2, 11 shots on goal, 12 shot attempts, 26 credited hits, two takeaways, no giveaways, two game-winning goals)
• Third Star: Alex Ovechkin (2-3-5, plus-2, 12 shots on goal,24 shot attempts, 11 credited hits)

A TWO Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 18: Capitals 4 - Sharks 0

The Washington Capitals played a beautiful ugly game in San Jose on Saturday night, riding a pair of goals from both Conor Sheary and Alex Ovechkin, plus a 22-save effort from goalie Ilya Samsonov, to defeat the Sharks, 4-0, to give the Caps points in the first three games of their west coast road trip.

First Period

Conor Sheary got the Caps off to a good start just 2:17 into the game when the Caps broke into the San Jose zone, but lacking a numbers advantage.  Nevertheless, Daniel Sprong found Sheary on his left with a pass that broke Sheary behind the Sharks’ defense, and he snapped a shot through the pads of goalie Adin Hill, who looked to have misplayed the puck.

Washington was awarded the game’s first power play when the puck was shot over the glass for a delay-of-game penalty on Marc-Edouard Vlasic at 13:29 of the period.  Alex Ovechkin made the Sharks pay by converting a pass from John Carlson into a one-timer from the top of the left wing circle at 13:58, Ovechkin’s first goal off a one-timer from his office this season.

The Caps had their second power play when Noah Gregor cross-checked Garnet Hathaway in the ribs in the neutral zone at the 17:34 mark.  The power play was wiped out when T.J. Oshie was called for interference at 18:00 of the period.  The Caps took another penalty when Justin Schultz was called for goalie interference when he cleaned out Hill in the San Jose crease at 18:30 into the period.  The Caps killed the 4-on-3 Sharks advantage and almost all of the two-man advantage when the horn sounded to send the teams to the locker rooms with the Caps holding a 2-0 lead.

-- The teams split 12 shots on goal evenly, and San Jose out-attempted the Caps, 14-12, in the period.

-- The two teams combined for 32 credited hits in the period, the Caps with 17 of them and T.J.Oshie leading the team with four.

-- Connor McMichael had a fine period. In 5:43 of ice time, he had a shot on goal, two credited hits, and won five of six draws.

-- Alex Ovechkin led the Caps with 7:21 in ice time.

Second Period

San Jose started the period with almost a full minute of carry-over power play time, but they failed to convert the opportunity.

San Jose dominated zone time in the first 15 minutes, and then they were awarded a four-minute power play when Carl Hagelin was called for a double minor for high sticking at 14:49 of the period.  The Caps killed off both ends of the double minor penalty and then received a power play of their own when the Sharks took their second delay of game/puck over glass penalty, this one charged to Gregor at 18:58 of the period.  Washington did not convert the extra-man chance before the end of the period, but 62 seconds would carry over into the third period.

-- San Jose outshot the Caps, 10-7, in the period and out-attempted them, 23-10.

-- Nic Dowd and Evgeny Kuznetsov had a devil of a time trying to win faceoffs in the first 40 minutes, combining to win only seven of 26 draws (26.9 percent).

-- Conor Sheary led the Caps in shots on goal (three) and shot attempts (five) through two periods.

Third Period

The Caps did not convert the remainder of the power play carrying over into the period, and the teams played on with the Caps holding on to their 2-0 lead.

The teams fought back and forth without either team getting many in the way of chances until the 16^th minute when Sheary got his second goal of the game when he followed up his own shot from the seat of his pants, finding a hole between Hill’s pads to make it 3-0, 15:10 into the period.

Ovechkin put an exclamation point on the effort with an empty net goal 18:56 into the period to make it a 4-0 game.  That would be how the game ended, with Samsonov earning the shutout.

Other stuff…

-- For Ilya Samsonov it was a second consecutive shutout and his third in his last five appearances.  Over those five games he is 4-0-0 (one no-decision), 1.36, .950, with those three shutouts.

-- Conor Sheary had his first multi-goal game of the season with his pair of tallie, and he had his second multi-point game, his first on the road this season.

-- Alex Ovechkin had a three-point game (2-1-3), the 120^th of his career, tying Mark Recchi and Ray Bourque for 28^th place all-time.

-- Ovechkin’s empty net goal was the 42^nd of his career, second all-time (Wayne Gretzky: 56).

-- John Carlson had the 77^th two-assist game of his career, third best in team history.

-- San Jose outshot the Caps, 22-21, and out-attempted them, 51-34.

-- The teams combined for 79 credited hits, San Jose one better than the Caps, 40-39.  Garnet Hathaway had nine for the Caps; T.J. Oshie had eight.

-- Sheary and Ovechkin led the Caps with four shots on goal apiece; Sheary led in shot attempts with five.

-- The Caps extended their road points streak to six games (4-0-2) and their overall points streak to seven games (6-0-1).

-- With the win, the Caps increased their goal differential to plus-23, tied for third in the league behind Carolina and Florida at plus-24 apiece.

In the end…

Nice game.  Very efficient, very much a textbook road game – get a lead, clamp down, limit chances late when the outcome is in doubt, put it away at the end.  Do it again on Sunday, and a 3-0-1 record on this west coast trip looks mighty fine.

 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 19: Capitals at Kraken: November 21

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals will make their first trip to Seattle to face the Kraken in a Sunday evening contest.  It will be the second back-to-back set of games for the Caps on this trip, having split the first B2B with an overtime loss to the Anaheim Ducks and a win over the Los Angeles Kings.  The Caps will be heading up the coast following their Saturday night contest with the San Jose Sharks.

For those who might have hoped for an inaugural season for the Kraken that resembled that of the Vegas Golden Knights in 2017-2018, those hopes are not likely to come to fruition.  The Kraken go into their matchup with the Caps on a six-game losing streak (the only winless team since November 6^th when the losing streak started) overall and a four-game losing streak on home ice. 

Scoring has been more middle-of-the road than poor during the streak, the Kraken tied for 15^th with Edmonton in scoring offense during that streak (2.83 goals per game), but the scoring has been top-heavy.  Three players combine for 10 of the Kraken’s 17 goals in the streak – Jordan Eberle (four), Yanni Gourde (three), and Jared McCann (three).  The trio has been uncommonly efficient in shooting, all of them with shooting percentages over 20 percent in the streak.  McCann leads the group in shooting percentage (37.5 percent) with three goals on eight shots in four games played during the losing streak.  McCann, who struggled early in his career in shooting efficiency (6.5 percent over his first three seasons), has ramped up that efficiency in the last four seasons (12.8 percent, including a career high 27.3 percent to date this season).  It has enabled him to average half a goal per game over the 12 games in which he has played so far, much improved over his previous best, 33.3 percent with Pittsburgh last season. But that scoring had come at a price.  McCann has been on ice for three even strength goals in this stretch, but he has been on ice for seven even strength goals against, contributing to his minus-5 rating in the four games in which he played.  McCann is 3-6-9, plus-2, in 15 career games against the Caps.

In addition to his three goals in the six-game skid, Gourde is one of only three players with a plus rating, his plus-1 equaling that of Riley Sheahan and Mx McCormick.  Gourde has had an up and down time of it in his offensive production.  In 2017-2018 he had 25 goals for the Tampa Bay Lightning, following that up with a 22-goal season in 2018-2019.  He fell off to ten goals in 70 games in 2019-2020, but rebounded to 17 goals in 56 games last season.  He is also an efficient shooter, having shot at least 12.5 percent (his current shooting percentage) in five of his last six seasons.  What Gourde has not yet done is improve on his timeliness in goal scoring.  Much of that is a product of moving from a Stanley Cup champion to an expansion team, but coming into this season 20 of his 80 goals were game-winners.  He is the only player in the league over the 2016-2017 through 2020-2021 seasons to record 80 or fewer goals overall and have 20 or more be game-winners.  Gourde is 1-3-4, minus-2, in 11 career games against Washington.

Eberle, the third member of the multi-goal trio over Seattle’s losing streak, is the overall leader in goal scoring for the Kraken to date (nine).  That production translates into his career-best to date goals per game (0.52), surpassing his full-season career high, recorded ten years ago with Edmonton (0.44).  It is quite a jump from his goal scoring rate over his four seasons with the New York Islanders (0.28).  Eberle had a hat trick in the Kraken’s last win, in a 5-2 win over Buffalo on November 4^th.  It is part of a stretch in which Eberle has scored nine goals in 11 games.  He has points in nine of those 11 games and is on a seven-game points streak going into Sunday’s game against the Caps.  But again, his scoring comes at a price.  Eberle has been on ice for 13 even strength goals so far this season, but he has been on ice for 23 even strength goals against, tied with Jaden Schwartz for most on the team.  Of 775 skaters to dress in games through Friday’s games, he is one of ten skaters with a minus-10 goal differential or worse at evens.  Eberle is 5-7-12, minus-7, in 29 career games against the Capitals.

1.  The Caps could face Marcus Johansson for the Kraken, who is now on his sixth NHL team in 12 NHL seasons.  Johansson, who dressed for 501 games in seven seasons with the Caps, has appeared in only 189 games over the last five seasons.

2.  One thing the Kraken have done well is limit shots.  The 25.9 shot per game allowed are fewest in the league.  But teams are shooting 15.0 percent against Seattle, the highest percentage by opponents in the league.

3.  No team has allowed more goals in the first period than Seattle (20, tied with Arizona), and no team has allowed more third period goals than Seattle (24).

4.  Seattle has allowed the most goals in the league at 5-on-5 (48).

5.  The next penalty taken by the Kraken will be their 200^th of the season, second in the league to Arizona (243).

1.  No team in the league has taken fewer penalties per 60 minutes than the Capitals (3.01); they are third-best in net penalties per 60 minutes (plus-0.70).

2.  The Caps are tied for first in goals scored at even strength at 5-on-5 on the road (25, with Calgary).

3.  Washington is the only team in the league that has not scored a goal on the road at 5-on-4.

4.  The Caps are second in the league in first period goals scored on the road (10; Calgary: 16); they are tied with Ottawa and Vegas for second-fewest third period goals allowed on the road (four).

5.  In eight road games so far, the Caps have the third-best points percentage in the league (.750/5-1-2).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Seattle: Philipp Grubauer

If Philipp Grubauer gets the nod in goal on Sunday, the Caps will be facing one of the most effective and efficient goalies in Capitals history.  Of 34 goalies to dress for at least 15 games in team history, Grubauer ranks first in save percentage (.923), first in save percentage in games started (.921), first in goals against average (2.29), tied for eighth in shutouts (six), first in even strength save percentage (.931, since 1997-1998, when the league started capturing this statistic), first in shorthanded save percentage (.892), sixth in power play save percentage (.895).

In Seattle, though, he is struggling with a 4-8-1, 3.27, .875 record.  He has allowed three of more goals nine times in 14 appearances and five goals in a game three times, including five in just 28:49 of work in a 6-1 loss to Philadelphia on October 18^th.  Of 49 goalies to have logged 250 or more minutes, Grubauer ranks 47^th in save percentage (.875), 42^nd in goals against average (3.27); of 50 goalies to appear in at least five games, Grubauer ranks dead last in even strength save percentage (.872).  That record has deteriorated recently, Grubauer going 0-4-0, 4.33, .830, in his last five games (one no-decision). Grubauer is 1-1-1, 3.04, .909 in three career appearances against Washington.

Washington: Daniel Sprong

The last five seasons of Daniel Sprong’s six-year NHL career have been a bit strange.  In 2017-2018 he shot 9.1 percent, following that up with shooting percentages of 11.2, 5.9, 17.6 last season, and 8.1 percent to date this season.  The odd part about his season to date is that he recorded four or more shots in five of the 16 games he played so far, but he does not have a goal in any of them.  It explains, in part, his having only three goals in those 16 games, a 15-goal pace, after a season in which he posted 13 goals in 42 games, a 25-goal pace.  And ice time seems not to be much of a factor in the drought.  He has two of his three goals in seven games in which he logged less than 12 minutes, but only one in four games in which he logged at least 15 minutes.  What adds to the strangeness is the fact that so far he is averaging more than a minute per game this season (12:42) than he did last season (11:40), and his shifts per game are slightly higher (15.6 to 15.3).  His is the sort of secondary scoring that matters, as it does for many players.  The Caps were 8-3-1 in the 12 games in which he scored goals last season and are 2-0-1 in the three games in which he had goals so far this season.  Like all of the Caps, this will be Sprong’s first appearance against the Kraken.

In the end…

The bloom is not yet off the rose in Seattle, but the Kraken have given fans little to cheer about lately.  This might be the let down after the high of a team embarking on their first journey through the NHL.  In any case, this is a team the Caps need to deal with quickly and emphatically.  Teams on losing streaks that get off to good starts or are allowed to hang around find ways to end that losing streak, and for this to be a successful trip for the Caps, they need to crack the Kraken.

Capitals 5 - Kraken 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 18: Capitals at Sharks: November 20

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals make the turn on their four-game western road trip with their third game on the journey, facing the San Jose Sharks on Saturday at SAP Center.  The Caps enter the game on a six-game points streak (5-0-1), while the Sharks are 2-4-1 in their last seven contests and losers of their last two games on home ice (0-1-1).

San Jose is a middle-of-the-road offensive club, led by Timo Meier with 15 points (6-9-15).  In his first three seasons with the Sharks, Meier looked to be on a path to justify his ninth-overall selection by the Sharks in the 2015 Entry Draft, posting a scoring line of 54-54-108, plus-12, in 193 games, capped with a career year in 2018-2019 (78 games, 30-36-66, plus-9.  His next two seasons, played in abbreviated schedules, were significant drop-offs – 22-27-49, minus-22, in 70 games, followed by a 12-19-31, minus-7, last season in 54 games.  This season, though, as been a rebound season for Meier so far, 6-9-15, plus-7, despite a five-game absence under COVID protocol that has limited to 11 games of the 16 played to date by the Sharks. Meier has points in ten of the games in which he has played thus far, blanked only in a 4-0 loss to Montreal on October 28^th.  His two power play goals to date ties hm for the team lead with Kevin LeBlanc, and his two game-winners tie him with Jonathan Dahlen for the team lead in that category.  Meier is 1-4-5, even, in six career games against the Caps.

Dahlen is an interesting player.  He is one of ten rookie skaters to dress for the Sharks this season and leads the group in scoring (7-2-9).  Those seven goals are tied for the team lead with Tomas Hertl and tied for the lead among all rookies in the league.  His shooting percentage of 22.6 is second among all Sharks skaters and leads all NHL rookies having recorded at least ten shots on goal.  If the name is familiar, it should be.  He is the son of former Capital Ulf Dahlen, who played in 14 seasons, three of them with the Caps.  Dahlen’s scoring has dropped off a bit since going 6-2-8, plus-5, in his first 11 games.  He had a three-game streak without a point (his longest of the season) before snapping it with a goal in his last game, the only Sharks goal in a 4-1 loss to St. Louis on Thursday.  This will be his first appearance against the Caps.

Goaltending has been hit and miss for the Sharks.  The “hit” is the performance of James Reimer.  His win-loss record of 4-3-1 is modest, but his underlying numbers – 1.98 goals against average and .938 save percentage – are not.  Reimer has danced on the dividing line between starter and back-up over the course of his career, his 21,424 career minutes ranking 16^th among 113 active goaltenders.  He has never dressed for as many as 50 games in a season, but he has not dressed for fewer than 30 games in a non-abbreviated season.  While his numbers this year sparkle – career bests in goals against average and save percentage – he has split 16 starts with Adin Hill (4-4-0, 3.11, .894, one shutout).  Reimer has cooled off of late but still putting up good underlying numbers, going 1-2-1, 2.46, .926 in his last four appearances.

1.  San Jose is stingy in allowing third period goals, tied for fourth-fewest goals allowed (12, with Florida).

2.  The Sharks have allowed the second-most shorthanded goals per game, 0.19 (second to Los Angeles: 0.25).

3.  San Jose is tied for the fourth-worst goal differential on power plays (plus-6).

4.  The Sharks have the second-best goal differential on penalty kills (minus-3, second to Colorado at minus-2).

5. It is all or nothing for the Sharks when leading or trailing after two periods – 6-0-0 when leading after 40 minutes, 0-7-0 when trailing.

1.  Alex Ovechkin is the all-time leading scorer against the Sharks 12-8-20.  On the other hand, he is tied for having the worst plus-minus all-time against the Sharks (minus-9, tied with Jason Chimera).

2.  The Caps are the only team in the league that is a top-five scoring team in each of the three regulation periods – first period: 17 (tied for fourth in the league); second period: 21 (tied for first); third period: 20 (tied for fifth).

3.  Seventeen games in, and the Caps are still the only team in the league without a major penalty.

4.  The Caps remain the only team in the league with a perfect record in games decided by three or more goals (4-0). They are also perfect in two-goal games (5-0), but they rank 30^th in winning percentage in one-goal games (.125/1-2-5).

5.  Washington is second only to Florida in goals scored at 5-on-5 (43 to 45 for Florida).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

San Jose: Brent Burns

The miles are starting to show on defenseman Brent Burns.  Now 36 years old and in his 18^th NHL season, his numbers have been dropping since he finished second in Norris Trophy voting in 2018-2019 – his third Norris finalist season in four years (he won the trophy in 2016-2017) – with a 16-67-83, plus-13 scoring line.  In the two seasons that followed he was 12-33-45, minus-22, in 70 games two years ago and 7-22-29, minus-12, in 56 games last season.  So far this season he is 1-11-12, minus-1, in 16 games.  He is highly ranked in the Sharks’ all-time statistical categories for defensemen – second in games played (732 to Marc-Edouard Vlasic’s 1,096), first in goals (163), first in assists (389), first in points (552), sixth in penalty minutes (408), first in points per game (0.75; minimum: 25 games), first in power play goals (51), first in power play points (190), first in overtime goals (10), first in game-winning goals (27). Ninth in shooting percentage (6.6 percent; minimum: 25 games), third in credited hits (866), second in blocked shots (1,049), and first in takeaways (490).  He is 6-12-18, even, in 20 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Trevor van Riemsdyk

Some players announce their presence with flashy numbers, other toil effectively, but in anonymity.  The latter might describe defenseman Trevor van Rimesdyk’s season to date for the Caps.  He is the only one of six defensemen to dress for the Caps without a goal, but he does have six assists, second among defensemen to John Carlson (14).  He is a plus-6, the third-best rating among defensemen.  He is not a big hitter (last of the six defensemen with seven), but he is tied for the lead among blueliners in blocked shot (27, with Martin Fehervary).  His 1.19 takeaways per 60 minutes is second among the group (John Carlson: 1.51).  His on-ice shot differential at 5-on-5 of plus-33 leads the team, and his being on ice for 212 shot attempts at fives is fewest among the defensemen.  His 2:15 in shorthanded ice time per game ranks second (Jensen: 2:21).  In 17 games played to date, he was a minus player only twice.  Van Riemsdyk is 0-3-3, plus-7, in 10 career games against the Sharks.

In the end…

San Jose has struggled at times on offense this season, including on home ice where they scored 12 goals in their last five games at SAP Center.  On defense, they have been strong where the Caps have been weak, posting a league-best 94.1 percent penalty kill on home ice, while the Caps are 31^st in road power play (5.9 percent).  If the Caps can solve the Sharks’ penalty kill, it should be a successful night.

Capitals 3 - Sharks 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 17: Capitals at Kings: November 17

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals close the southern California leg of their four-game road trip with a visit to STAPLES Center and the Los Angeles Kings on Wednesday night.  The Kings are among the hottest teams in the league, taking an eight-game points streak (7-0-1) into their contest with the Caps.

The Kings have not been an especially frisk team on offense to date, averaging 2.73 goals per game, which ranks in the bottom third in the league.  But the struggles of Mikey Anderson have been rough.  The third-year defenseman is one of five players in the league (a group that includes former Capital Jay Beagle) to appear in 15 or more games without recording a point.  What Anderson has that the other four do not is a plus rating (plus-9).  Anderson, a fourth round pick (103^rd overall) in the 2017 Entry Draft, is not an offensive defenseman by any means, with a career scoring line of 2-10-12, plus-13, in 75 career games, but he was good enough overall last season to be one of 20 rookies to earn votes for the Calder Trophy for top rookie.  Odd Anderson fact… over his first 13 games he had a total of nine shots on goal, and then he had six in a 2-0 win over Ottawa on November 11^th.  Anderson has never faced the Caps.

When the team for which you root has not faced a team in almost two years, chances are you lose touch with that opponent’s roster and who the productive players are.  With respect to the Kings, that brings us to Alex Iafallo.  Now in his fifth season with the Kings, he is turning into a productive goal scorer.  His goals per game increased in each of his first four seasons, last year reaching a high of 0.24 goals per game last season, a 19-goal pace.  He is far ahead of that pace this season with six goals in 15 games, a 33-goal pace.  Those six goals came in a nine-game stretch from October 23^rd through November 9^th and half of them coming at the expense of the Montreal Canadiens.  He has been a good example of the value of secondary scoring, the Kings going 7-2-0 in games in which he registered at least one point, 1-3-2 in games in which he was held off the score sheet.  In the last of those nine games in which he recorded six goals, he registered eight shots on goal and a goal against the Canadiens in a 3-2 win on November 9^th.  Oddly enough, in his next game he failed to record a shot on goal, the first and only game so far this season in which he did not record a shot on goal.  Iafallo is without a point in his last two contest.  He is 1-0-1, minus-3, in six career games against Washington.

Jonathan Quick is the all-time franchise leader among goalies in games (674), wins (340), fourth in goals against average (2.40; minimum: 50 games), third in save percentage (.913), and first in shutouts (55).  But before this season he was in what amounted to a three-year slump – 43-54-13, 3.05, .896, with five shutouts.  But this season he has found his game once more, going 4-3-1, 1.98 (sixth in the league; minimum: 250 minutes), .935 (sixth), with one shutout.  He goes into this game on a hot streak.  After losing his first four decisions this season (0-3-1), he is on a four-game winning streak with a 1.23 goals against average and a .961 save percentage.  His most recent game was a 34-save shutout of the Ottawa Senators on Veterans Day. 

But while Quick is the past and the present, what of the future?  Cal Petersen, who just turned 27 years old and is in his fourth year with the Kings, is 4-2-1, 2.84, .902 in seven games this season.  Unfortunately for Petersen and the Kings, his save percentage is heading in the wrong direction -- .924 in 11 games in his first season, followed by seasons of .922 in eight games and .911 in 35 games last year. Petersen is on a streak of his own, going 3-0-1 over his last four appearances with a 2.21 goals against average and a .917 save percentage.  Quick is 9-5-0, 2.55, .907 in 14 career appearances against the Caps, while Petersen has not yet faced the Caps in his career.

1.  Los Angeles outscored opponents, 25-14 over their eight-game points streak.  Five of the games were one-goal decisions in which the Kings were 4-0-1.

2.  Only Arizona has fewer first period goals scored so far (six) than the Kings (eight).

3.  On the other hand, only four teams have allowed fewer first period goals than Los Angeles (eight).

4.  Only four teams have a worse winning percentage when scoring first in games than the Kings (3-3-1/.429).

5.  Only three teams have a better winning percentage when trailing first than Los Angeles (5-2-1/.625).

1.  In the nine days since the Caps embarked on the four game winning streak they took into Anaheim on Tuesday night, they rank fourth in scoring offense in that span (4.25 goals per game).

2.  The Caps are one of five teams with a perfect penalty kill in that spa, (11-for-11), and their net penalty kill (109.1) is second-best in the league, owing to the addition of a shorthanded goal scored.

3.  In their four-game winning streak, only one team (Montreal) has fewer takeaways per 60 minutes than the Capitals (4.25).

4.  In the four-game streak, the Caps have averaged 2.75 power play chances per game and have had 2.75 shorthanded situations per game.

5.  The Caps have goals from 11 different skaters in their four-game winning streak and points from 16 of 19 skaters.  

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Los Angeles: Anze Kopitar

There are few Los Angeles Kings franchise records Anze Kopitar will not own when he decides to hang up his skates or leaves the Kings (he is under contract through the 2023-2024 season).  He ranks second in games played (1,144, 103 behind leader and current teammate Dustin Brown), fourth in goals (354, 203 behind leader Luc Robitaille…count that one as a franchise-best he is unlikely to reach), third in assists (662, 95 short of Marcel Dionne), fourth in points (1,016, 291 behind Dionne), fifth in power play goals (101, 109 behind Robitaille), third in power play points (364, 97 behind Dionne), tied for second in overtime goals (nine, two behind Jeff Carter), third in game-winning goals (58, 14 behind Robitaille), first in faceoff winning percentage (52.6 percent; minimum: 100 faceoffs taken), first in blocked shots among forwards (760), first in takeaways (666).  Kopitar is not slowing down.  He is currently the team leader in goals (eight), assists (eight), and points this season (16).  His three power play goals and six power play points lead the team.  His 21:18 in ice time per game leads all forwards, as do his 20 blocked shots.  And, he is 2-5-7 in Los Angeles’ eight game points streak.  Kopitar is 9-8-17, plus-1, in 20 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin is the 22^nd oldest skater to have played in the league this season.  That is 744 skaters who are younger than Ovechkin to have dressed this season, and few, if any of them are having the kind of season Ovechkin is – second in goals (12), tied for fifth in assists (14), third in points (26), second in plus-minus rating (plus-14), fourth in points per game (1.73), second in even strength goals (nine), first in shots on goal (65), first in points per 60 minutes (4.46; minimum: ten games).  He has points in 13 of 15 games (pending results in Anaheim on Tuesday night), he has nine multi-point games (he had only 11 all of last year), he has five multi-assist games so far this season (three all of last year and one the year before that).  In the Caps current four-game winning streak going into their game in Anaheim, Ovechkin has been the straw to stir the drink.  In those four games he is 2-6-8, plus-6, averaging 21:43 per game in ice time, and oddly enough, had his only game without a shot on goal this season, but he did manage an assist in that 2-0 win over Detroit on Veterans Day. 

It is, in some respects a career year in the making, which is saying something.  His 2.2 goals per 60 minutes is a career high, as are his 2.6 assists per 60 minutes and 4.8 points per 60 minutes.  His 0.80 goals per game is a career high, as are his 0.93 assists per game and 1.73 points per game (he is on a 142-point pace).  He seems a good bet to finish the season with 100 points for the first time since 2009-2010 (109 points) and finish with the fifth 100-point season of his career.  Against the Kings, he is 11-10-21, minus-2, in 21 career games.

In the end… 

Los Angeles resembles their Stanley Cup winning teams of a decade ago.  They will not overwhelm with offense, but they will be solid in the defensive end and generally get good goaltending.  They are, however, different on special teams, where their present penalty kill is weak (74.4 percent/27^th in the league), and their power play is unimpressive (18.2 percent/18^th).  If the Capitals can shake off their own power play problems, they could make this a successful night.

Capitals 4 Kings 2