The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 24: Blackhawks at Capitals: December 2nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals begin their longest home stand of the season – four games – on Thursday night when the Chicago Blackhawks blow in from the Windy City.  The Caps will be looking to rid themselves of the stench of the third period in Tuesday’s game against the Florida Panthers, when they coughed up a 4-1 lead, allowed four goals (the last with 15 seconds left), and lost without so much as salvaging a single standings point in a 5-4 loss.  Chicago has alternated wins and losses over their past six games overall (3-3-0).  They are 2-2-0 in their last four road games after going 0-5-1 in their first six road contests.

Patrick Kane is the only number one overall draft pick in Chicago Blackhawks history.  He has had a much better career than the Blackhawks’ only number two overall pick in their history – Andrew Culligan (1965 Amateur Draft) -- who never dressed for an NHL game.  Kane is fourth all-time in franchise history in games played (1,046), third in goals scored (410), third in assists (696), third in points (1.106), fourth in power play goals (113), tied for third in power play points (355), second in overtime goals (nine), third in game-winning goals (67), second in ice time per game among forwards (20:13), second in takeaways (632), fourth in first goals of games (69), first in empty net goals (25), and second in both Gimmick goals scored (47) and game-deciding Gimmick goals (19).

In 14 seasons preceding this one, Kane was a point-per-game player in 11 of them, and with 18 points in 17 games (he missed four games to COVID protocol), he is on pace to do so a 12^th time.  He has been in a slump of late, going 0-1-1, minus-4, over his last five games after going 1-5-6, plus-6, in his previous four games.  Odd Kane info nugget…Kane as points in three of eight road games this season, all multi-point games.  In 17 career games against the Caps, he is 7-8-15, minus-7.

Seth Jones came to Chicago on July 23^rd from the Columbus Blue Jackets with a sixth-round draft pick in 2022, and a first-round draft pick in 2021 for a conditional first-round draft pick in 2022 (if 2022 first-round pick is in the top two, becomes a 2023 first-round pick), Adam Boqvist, a second-round draft pick in 2021, and a first-round draft pick in 2021.  In his first season with the Blackhawks, Jones is 2-15-17, minus-9.  His 1.9 points per 60 minutes and 0.81 points per game to date represent career highs.  Jones scoring has had an effect on wins and losses, within the context of a struggling team. Chicago is 6-7-2 in the 15 games in which he has a point, 1-5-0 in the six games in which he does not.  He has points in six of ten road games to date (1-5-6, minus-6).  Odd Seth Jones info nugget…Jones is the only defenseman in the league with at least 15 points and minus-9 or worse.  He is 3-10-13, plus-3, in 19 games against the Caps.

It might seem like it should be more, but Marc-Andre Fleury has 42 career regular season appearances against the Caps, the same number, it turns out, and another Capital nemesis and erstwhile teammate (sort of) – Henrik Lundqvist.  The two have very similar career records against the Caps, Fleury with a 24-14-2/2.62/.911/four shutout record, and Lundqvist with a 22-13-7/2.76/.907/4 shutout record.  And Fleury has faced the Caps only three times in the postseason.  It just seems his footprint as an opponent in Caps history is larger than the numbers suggest.  Perhaps it is that Fleury faced the Caps in two seven-game series (both wins with Pittsburgh) and another of five games (the Stanley Cup final in 2018, a Caps win).  There might not be another opposition goalie in the Rock the Red era for the Caps who is remembered more by Caps fans.   

And now, the Caps get to face Fleury on his third team. His numbers have not been impressive with Chicago to date – 39^th of 58 goalies with 250 or more minutes in goals against average (2.91), 26^th in save percentage (.914), and one shutout.  He has been streaky, a five-game losing streak to start the season (4.63/.872) and a four-game winning streak in mid-November (1.22/.964/one shutout/40 or more shots faced twice).  He is, however, working on a two-game winless streak despite stopping 54 of 58 shots (.931).  He is 2-5-0/3.12/.916/one shutout in seven road games to date.

1.  Chicago has difficulty getting pucks on net on the road.  Their 24.5 shots per game are fewest in the league.

2.  The Blackhawks find themselves behind the eight-ball early in games.  They have been scored upon first in seven of ten road games (0-6-1 record), tied for third-most in the league; and they have trailed seven times at the first intermission (0-6-1). 

3.  Perhaps allowing 20 first period goals has something to do with those early-game woes – most in the league by far (Vancouver: 14).

4.  Chicago plays well within the rules on the road.  Their net penalties (drawn less taken) of plus-4 and their 0.40 net penalties per 60 minutes rank second in the league in both categories.

5.  The Blackhawks are adept at pilfering pucks, their 7.98 takeaways per 60 minutes ranking third in the league.

1.  Washington is one of only four teams with a single loss in regulation on home ice (New York Rangrs, Edmonton Oilers, Florida Panthers).

2.  The Caps’ plus-1.46 goal differential on home ice is fourth-best in the league.

3.  Washington has allowed only 25.3 shots per game on home ice, second-fewest in the league (Calgary: 24.0).

4.  The Capitals have six wins when scoring first on home ice, tied for second-most in the league (Florida: seven).

5.  Washington needs to do better in close games on home ice. Their 1-1-3 record is tied for fourth-worst in the league by points percentage (.200).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Chicago: Alex DeBrincat

Back in 2016, a well-regarded Capitals Web site selected Alex DeBrincat with the 26^th overall pick of the 2016 Entry Draft.  The Capitals did not take the advice.  Instead, the Caps traded the 26^th pick to St. Louis for the Blues’ first round pick (29^th overall) and a third-round pick (87^th overall).  The Caps took Lucas Johansen with the first round pick and Garrett Pilon with the third round pick.  Johansen has not yet played an NHL game and has spent the last five seasons with the Hershey Bears.  Pilon broke through and dressed for his first NHL game last season and has played two this season for the Caps.  The two have combined to go 1-0-1, plus-1 (all from Pilon) in the NHL.

DeBrincat slipped to the second round of the 2016 draft where he was taken by the Blackhawks, perhaps his size (5’7”/165 pounds) working against him.  The 39^th overall pick has been a bargain – sixth in his draft class in games played (307), third in goals scored (131), sixth in assists (113), fourth in points (244), third in power play goals (41), fourth in power play points (74), second in overtime goals (seven), and fourth n game-winning goals (17).  This season, DeBrincat has taken over as the dominant offensive force for the Blackhawks, leading the team by a wide margin in goals (12, to Brandon Hagel’s seven) and is second in points overall (15, to Patrick Kane’s 18).  He and Kane lead the team in game-winning goals (two apiece; the team has only six overall), he trails only Kane among forwards in team goals for at even strength (15, to Kane’s 16).  On the other hand, though, he has been on ice for 20 even strength goals against, most among forwards.  DeBrincat is 2-2-4, plus-1, in five career games against the Caps.

Washington: Carl Hagelin

Of all 355 active players having faced the Blackhawks in ten or more games, who has more points per game against Chicago than Logan Couture, Max Pacioretty, Filip Forsberg, or Phil Kessel?  Carl Hagelin, that’s who.  With eight points in 13 career games against Chicago (0.62 points per game), he has more than Couture (0.61), Pacioretty (0.61), Forsberg (0.58), and Kessel (0.55). Hagelin is one of 12 players in that group to have posted two shorthanded points.  Hagelin also averages 16:24 in ice time per game against Chicago over his career, more per-game ice time than he has against any other team except the Minnesota Wild (16:47 in 13 games).

Hagelin could use some of that production at the moment.  Never an especially noteworthy scorer – his best points per game was in 2011-2012 with the New York Rangers (0.59), and his career average coming into this year was 0.43 – his scoring this year has been disappointing, even by modest standards.  Hagelin has three assists in 23 games and is looking for his first goal, going 0-for-28 shooting.  He is one of seven forwards in the league without a goal and having taken 28 or more shots.  He and Zach Parise are tied for fewest points in than group (three).  On the other hand, Hagelin leads that group in plus-minus (plus-4), which is more evidence of the Caps’ overall strength than Hagelin’s performance.  He is 2-6-8, minus-1, in 13 career games against Chicago.

In the end…

Good veteran teams do not let one bad period linger in the mind, especially when they dominated the two periods preceding it, as the Caps did against Florida in their 5-4 loss on Tuesday.  And they don’t let a team that is 2-7-1 on the road add to the recent misery.  The Caps, that third period notwithstanding, are a good – a very good – team. Chicago is not.  This should not be close.

Capitals 5 – Blackhawks 2

A NO Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 23: Panthers 5 - Capitals 4

The Washington Capitals broke out to a 4-1 lead over the Florida Panthers barely half-way through the contest and looked to make it an early evening.  They might have punched their time cards, but the Panthers did not, charging back with four third period goals, the last of them with 15 seconds left on a power play, and escaped with a 5-4 win over the Capitals.

First Period

Washington jumped on the Panthers early with goals 11 seconds apart six minutes into the game.  Connor McMichael got the Caps off and running 5:52 into the period on a sequence started by Nick Jensen, who slid up the right wing wall in the Florida end to improve his angle to get a shot on net.  He fired at the Panther goal, but the shot was muffled, the puck dribbling to the left of goalie Sergei Bobrovsky.  McMichael got two whacks at the loose puck, the second one from below the goal line, hitting Bobrovsky’s left leg and caroming in to make it 1-0, Caps.

Beck Malenstyn posted his first NHL goal 11 seconds later.  Off the faceoff following the McMichael goal, Trevor van Riemsdyk banked the puck off the right wing boards into the offensive zone.  Matt Kiersted could not control the puck for the Panthers, but Brett Leason did corral it.  He cut to the middle, drawing the defense, and then slid the puck to Malenstyn on his left.  Malenstyn one-timed the puck past Bobrovsky, and it was 2-0 at the 6:03 mark.

Florida halved the lead 52 seconds later when off a scramble in front, the puck found its way to open ice to the right of goalie Ilya Samsonov.  Joe Thornton shrugged off Leason and bunted the loose puck past Samsonov’s right skate to make it 2-1, 6:55 into the period.

Washington was awarded the first power play at the 13:38 mark when Frank Vatrano was sent off for high-sticking.  Washington had some good looks, but they failed to convert the man advantage. Neither team could score from there, and the teams went to the first intermission with the Caps holding a 2-1 lead.

-- Florida outshot the Caps, 15-12, and out-attempted them, 23-21.

-- Three rookies – Connor McMichael, Brett Leason, and Beck Malenstyn – had points in the period.

-- Three defensemen – Trevor van Riemsdyk, Dmitry Orlov, and Nick Jensen – had points in the period.

-- Alex Ovechkin led the team with four shot attempts (two on goal, tied for the team lead through 20 minutes).

Second Period

Washington regained their two-goal lead in the seventh minute when Lars Eller steamed down the left side of the offensive zone, curled in and around the flat-footed Aaron Eklblad, and flipped a backhand past the left pad of Bobrovsky at 6:40 to make it a 3-1 game.

Mid-way through the period the teams practiced their playoff orneriness moves, several players squaring off against one another  Martin Fehervary and Jonathan Huberdeau being one pair penalized and MacKenzie Weegar the other, all four receiving two minutes for roughing.

Nick Jensen put the Caps up by three goals when Nic Dowd, from below the goal line, threaded a pass through several players to Jensen alone in the middle of the ice.  Jensen fired, his shot nicking defender Anton Lindell on the way through just enough for the puck to sail high over Bobrovsky and under the water bottle, making it 4-1, Caps, 12:40 into the period.

Tom Wilson went off at 13:03 of the period to put the Panthers on a power play.  Florida had a couple of fine chances late in the man advantage, but Samsonov fought them off, and the Caps maintained their 4-1 lead.  It would be the lead they took to the locker room at the second intermission.

-- Washington outshot Florida, 13-9, in the period and out-attempted the Panthers, 20-15.

-- Ten skaters had points for the Caps through 40 minutes, three defensemen combining for five points.

-- Connor McMichael led the Caps with four shots on goal through 40 minutes; he and Alex Ovechkin each had six shot attempts.

Third Period

The Caps got caught in their own end and playing a bit lackadaisical when the Panthers shave the lead to two goals.  Controlling the puck below the Caps’ goal line, Patric Hornqvist sent the puck out in front to a wide open Ryan Lomberg, who fired the puck into the open side of the net to Samsonov’s right, making it 4-2, 3:23 into the period.

The Caps’ sluggish play caused head coach Peter Laviolette to call his time out at the 4:40 mark and Florida with an 8-0 edge in shots in the period to try to get the Caps bright eyed and bushy tailed once more.

Washington went to a power play when Vatrano was sent off for tripping at the 5:36 mark.  But it was Florida who capitalized when Eetu Luostarinen got behind the Caps defense on a breakaway and beat Samsonov between the pads at 6:09.

The Caps went shorthanded after a wild scrum in front of Samsonov as both teams desperately searched for the puck. Tom Wilson went off for interference at 8:18 of the period.  Washington killed the penalty and recorded a shorthanded shot, their first shot on goal of the period.

Washington went right back to the PK, though, when Dennis Cholowski went to the box for cross-checking at the 11:27 mark.  The second time worked for Florida when an Aaron Ekblad drive was redirected through the pads of Samsonov to make it 4-4, 12:01 into the period.

Florida got one last power play late in the period when Malenstyn went off for goalie interference at 19:03.  Florida converted the man advantage when Sam Bennett one-timed a puck past Samsonov on the short side at 19:45.  The comeback was complete, and Florida skated off with a 5-4 win.

Other stuff…

-- Beck Malenstyn’s goal made it eight-for-eight for Caps rookies.  All eight rookies to dress for the Caps so far this season have points.

-- Florida recorded 26 shots in the third period against a team allowing only 27.3 shots per game, fewest in the league.

-- The Caps allowed 50 shots on goal for the game, the first time they allowed 50 or more in a game since October 13, 2007, when they allowed 53 in a 7-3 loss to the Buffalo Sabres.

--  Florida outshot the Caps, 50-27, and out-attempted them 72-45.

-- Connor McMichael led the team with four shots on goal; he and Alex Ovechkin had six shot attempts.  Neither player had a shot or a shot attempt in the third period.

--  The teams split 70 hits down the middle; Garnet Hathaway and Martin Fehervary led the team with six apiece.

-- Mike Sgarbossa and Brett Leason did not have a shot attempt.

-- Every Panther had a shot on goal except Radko Gudas.

-- John Carlson let the team in ice time…again (23:05).

-- The Caps allowed two power play goals in a game for the first time this season.

In the end…

For 40 minutes, the Caps looked like the best team in the league.  In the last 20 minutes, they looked like a lottery team.  And they paid for it.  Burn the tapes, get ready for the next one.

 

 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 23: Capitals at Panthers: November 30

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up their first regular season series when they visit the Florida Panthers on Tuesday night.  The teams split the first two meetings, the Panthers earning a 5-4 overtime win on November 4th in Florida, and the Caps evening the series with a 4-3 win last Friday in Washington.  The Caps head into this matchup winners of three straight and nine of their last 11 contests (9-1-1).  Florida has lost two in a row, including that 4-3 loss to the Caps, after winning four straight.

Florida has been almost unbeatable at home so far.  Their 11-1-0 record at BB&T Center is the best in the league to date.  Much of their success is due to offensive balance.  Sixteen of 24 skaters to dress for home games have goals for the Panthers. While that might be particularly special, their having 11 multiple goal scorers and five with at least five goals in 12 games on home ice qualifies.

Anthony Duclair leads the Panthers with seven goals in 11 home games to date.  Duclair is a tantalizing player in some respects, a player who gave occasional hints that he would be a scorer to be reckoned with.  There were his 20 goals in 81 games in his first full NHL season, in 2015-2016 with Arizona.  He slipped to five goals in 58 games the following season, but he improved his production in each of the next three years, capped with a 23-goal season (in 66 games) in 2019-2020 with Ottawa.  He slipped a bit once more with ten goals in 43 games last season, but he has nine in 19 games overall to start this season, a 39-goal pace.  That would not seem to be a sustainable pace, given he is shooting 25.7 percent, more than six points better than his best season to date (19.0 percent in 2015-2016) and more than double his career shooting percentage (12.3) coming into this season. The Panthers could use his continued production, the team being 7-0-1 in the eight games in which he has a goal this season.  Duclair, who is listed day-to-day with an injury, is 3-3-6, minus-6, in 12 career games against the Capitals.

While Duclair leads the Panthers in goals scored on home ice, defenseman Aaron Ekblad is tied for the lead (with Duclair) in points scored in home games so far – 13 points in 12 games.  Ekblad has not been an elite offensive contributor, but he has been the epitome of consistency.  Starting with his Calder Trophy rookie season, Ekblad has double digit goal totals in six of seven seasons coming into this year and more than 35 points in five of those seven seasons.  He started this season on a pace for a career year, his 6-11-17, plus-16 overall scoring line working out to a 23-43-66, plus-62 pace over 82 games.  All would easily clear his career bests in those categories (16 goals in 2017-2018, 36 assists in 2019-2020, 41 points in 2019-2020, and plus-18 in 2015-2016).  Ekblad had a five-game points streak snapped in the loss to the Caps last week and is without a point in his last two games.  Ekblad is 2-3-5, plus-2, in 18 career games against Washington.

Florida has had little need for dependence on rookies for contributions, only three rookie skaters dressing for the Panthers to date.  Anton Lundell, however, has had a solid start in his rookie campaign, posting a 3-4-7, plus-2, scoring line in 11 games.  Lundell was the 12^th overall pick in the 2020 Entry Draft and has outperformed his draft position so far, ranking seventh in his draft class in games (17), seventh in goals (three), sixth in assists (four), tied for sixth in points (seven), and tied for third in plus-minus (plus-2).  Florida is 4-0-1 when Lundell recorded at least one point, but as is the case with many rookies, less ice time is associated with better win-loss results.  Florida is 6-1-2 when he logged 16:57 or less in games, 5-3-0 when he logged more than that.  Lundell is without a point and has an even rating in his two career games against the Caps to date.

1.  Florida’s plus-2.00 goal differential on home ice is best in the league.

2.  The Panthers are a high-volume event team on home ice, the combined 69.9 shots on goal/shots allowed being most in the league.

3.  One thing the Panthers cannot do on home ice is win faceoffs.  Their 45.7 winning percentage is second-worst in the league (Buffalo: 45.3 percent).

4.  Florida’s plus-11 goal differential in first periods of games at home (18 goals for, leading the league) is best in the league.

5.  The Panthers have played 12 games on home ice so far.  Half of them resulted in wins by three or more goals.  Those six wins by three or more goals on home ice lead the league.

1.  The Caps’ special teams have struggled on the road.  Their special teams index of 91.8 (power play: 10.3 percent; penalty kill: 81.5 percent) ranks 22^nd in the league.

2.  Washington is second in the league in first period goals scored on the road with 13 (Calgary: 19).

3.  The Caps’ 32 goals scored at 5-on-5 on the road lead the league.

4.  Washington is one of four teams without a loss in regulation on the road when being outshot (4-0-1).  Boston, Carolina, and St. Louis are the others.

5.  Alex Ovechkin has 28 career hat tricks, the most recent of which came in the last meeting against Florida.  His three career hat tricks against Florida is tied for the most he has against any team (Ottawa).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Florida: Sergei Bobrovsky

In 2016-2017, Sergei Bobrovsky went 41-17-5 with the Columbus Blue Jackets and led the league in both goals against average (2.06) and save percentage (.931).  To that he added seven shutouts.  The performance was good enough to earn Bobrovsky the Vezina Trophy as the NHL’s top goalie.  Then things took a turn.  Over the next four seasons he had a good win-loss record (116-73-15, the 116 wins ranking fourth in the league) with Columbus and Florida, where he arrived as a free agent in the 2019-2020 season, and he led the league in shutouts in 2018-2019 with nine.  

But his underlying numbers left something to be desired – a 2.73 goals against average (28^th among 72 goalies logging at least 2,500 minutes) and a .911 save percentage (30^th in that group).  He had become a rather ordinary goalie. But this season he seems to have found his spark once more.  Of 57 goalies with at least 250 minutes, Bobrovsky ranks sixth in goals against average (2.03) and fifth in save percentage (.936).  He has been even more impressive on home ice, going 7-0-0 (no other goalie with at least five wins is without a loss), 1.76, .948.  However, he has been on a roller coaster lately, alternating games with save percentages over .935 and under .900 over his last six games (3-1-2, 2.37, .921).  Bobrovsky is 9-13-5, 3.01, .899, with one shutout in 29 career appearances against the Caps.

Washington: Ilya Samsonov

The question in goal for the Capitals as they work through the second quarter of their regular season schedule is, “has Ilya Samsonov turned the corner?”  Samsonov went 29-10-3 in his first two seasons with the Caps, but his underlying performance (2.61/.908) suggested “passenger,” not a goalie to lean on who would steal games.  With the emergence of Vitek Vanecek as a credible alternative as the number one goalie, coupled with Samsonov’s on and off ice adventures (injuries/COVID), Samsonov’s future with the team seemed uncertain.

Even his first half-dozen games this season provided little in the way of confidence.  He was 4-0-1, but he also had a 2.93 goals against average and a .894 save percentage. These were not the numbers of a goalie with Stanley Cup aspirations.  However, in his five appearances he is 5-0-0, 1.60, .942, with two shutouts.  That is a small sample of game from which to draw specific conclusions as to his future this season, but the numbers are encouraging, and the eye test suggests he is feeling more confident and comfortable in the position.  At last, he might be grabbing the job of number one goalie by the throat and holding it tightly.  Samsonov is 1-0-0, 4.21, .850 in two career appearances against Florida.

In the end…

The Caps had the better of play against Florida in Washington in their last meeting, but Florida in Florida seems to be a different animal entirely.  For the Caps to plant the first regulation loss on the Panthers in their rink, they will have to play as close to perfect a road game as possible – simplified, focused, relentless, 60-minutes of effort.  But this is a team that is 7-2-2 on the road, the fourth-best road record in the league.  Do we hear “eight wins?”

Capitals 4 – Panthers 3