The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 63: Capitals at Hurricanes, March 18th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals finish up their back-to-back two-game road trip on Friday night when they visit Raleigh, NC, to take on the Carolina Hurricanes.  This game will wrap up the road portion of the season series for the Caps, who won the first game in Carolina, back on November 28^th when the Caps broke a 2-2 tie with two goals in the last three minutes, one an empty netter, in a 4-2 win.  The Caps also own a win in Washington, a 4-0 win on March 3^rd.

Carolina had a four-game winning streak snapped on Sunday when they lost in Pittsburgh to the Penguins, 4-2.  They will face the Caps in their own back half of a back-to-back set of games after they visit Toronto in a matchup with the Maple Leafs on Thursday night.  But while the Hurricanes are carrying a three-game losing streak on the road into Toronto (0-2-1), they are an extremely formidable team on home ice.  Their 23-4-2 record at PNC Arena is third-best in wins, third-best in points earned (48), and second-best in points percentage (.828).  They do it largely with defense, their 2.03 goals allowed per game on home ice being the best scoring defense on home ice in the league.

That defense starts in goal with Frederik Andersen, who is having the season of his life.  His league-leading 2.06 goals against average among the 51 goalies with at least 1,000 minutes is his career best, topping the 2.29 GAA he had in 2013-2014 with Anaheim.  His second-ranked save percentage of .929 is his career best, clearing his previous career best set back in that 2013-2014 season (.923).  He has three shutouts in 39 starts, within striking distance of the five shutouts he had in 66 starts with Toronto in 2017-2018.  

Only five times in 40 appearances has Andersen allowed more than three goals in a game, and he has yet to allow more than four.  Eighteen times he allowed one or no goals.  Only Calgary’s Jacob Markstrom has done so more times this season (19).  By way of comparison, the Caps’ Vitek Vanecek and Ilya Samsonov have combined for 17 such instances (nine and eight, respectively).  And as one might expect, he has performed better on home ice, going 15-3-1, 1.98 (ranked fourth), .932 (third), with two shutouts (tied for third).  Since he suffered a personal three-game losing streak to close November, Andersen has been almost unbeatable, going 19-3-2, 2.07, .930, with two shutouts in 24 appearances.  He certainly deserves consideration for the Vezina Trophy.  Andersen is 5-4-2, 3.05, .904, with two shutouts in his career against the Caps.

There have been 529 skaters to dress for 40 or more games in the league this season.  Only two of those skaters have been on ice for fewer even strength goals than forward Jordan Martinook, who has been on ice for 13 goals at evens in 43 games played.  And even being on the ice for that low number of even strength goals against has not made much of a dent in Carolina’s record.  In the 11 games in which he has been on ice for an even strength goal against, the Hurricanes are 7-3-1.  Martinook has not been a player whose offensive numbers leap off the page, with one exception.  In 461 NHL games, he has 50 goals (8.9 per 82 games).  214 of those games have been played with Carolina over four seasons, with whom he has 24 goals.  Of that total, a full one-third (eight) have been game-winners.  And, in the infrequent games in which he has points this season (10 of 43 games), Carolina is 9-1-0.  Getting ice time seems to agree with him, but as is the case with many players of modest offensive numbers, this might reflect game situations (the Hurricanes defending leads) as much as anything else.  Still, Carolina is 7-1-2 in the ten games in which he skated at least 13 minutes.  While Martinook does not have a goal in 23 road games this season, he does have three in 20 games on home ice so far.  He is 1-4-5, minus-7, in 16 career games against the Caps.

Carolina has not had great need for new blood in their lineup this season.  They have dressed only four rookie skaters for a total of 65 games.  Forward Seth Jarvis has 46 of those games on his ledger.  The 13^th overall pick of the 2020 Entry Draft, his 46 games played ranks eighth in his draft class.  He is 8-12-20, plus-7 in the 46 games he played, sixth in his draft class in goals, seventh in assists, seventh in points, and second in plus-minus rating.  He is one of only eight players from his draft class to date to have dressed for at least 40 games.  And, of 35 rookies to appear in 40 or more games this season, only seven of them have been on ice for fewer even strength goals against than Jarvis (22).  Carolina has yet to lose a game in regulation in which he scored a goal (7-0-1), and they are 15-2-2 in the 19 games in which he has points.  Jarvis, who is listed as day-to-day with an undisclosed injury, is without a point but has a plus-1 rating in his only previous appearance against Washington.

1.  The Hurricanes bring a 13-game points streak on home ice into this game (12-0-1).  In none of those 13 games did they allow more than three goals, and they allowed three goals only four times.

2.  Carolina’s .962 points percentage on home ice over those 13 games (since January 15^th) is tops in the league.

3.  Over those 13 games, the Hurricanes allowed only 1.62 goals per game, fewest in the league over that span.

4.  Carolina and Calgary are the only teams who have perfect records in three-goal decisions on home ice since January 15^th.

5.  In those 13 home games, Carolina scored first in 11 of them and had a 10-0-1 record when doing so.

1.  Since January 28^th, the Caps are 16-for-53 on the power play, their 30.2 percent conversion rate ranking third in the league in that span.

2.  The 16 power play goals scored since January 28^th are tied for most in the league with Florida and Winnipeg.

3.  Over that period, John Carlson leads the Caps in power play points (nine) and is tied for seventh in power play points over that span.

4.  Alex Ovechkin is tied for seventh in primary power play assists over that same span (four).

5.  Nine different Caps have power play goals in 17 games since January 28^th, led by Evgeny Kuznetsov (four).  Ten different Caps have power play points.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Martin Necas

Three Hurricanes are tied for the team lead in game-winning goals this season with five apiece.  Sebastian Aho is one of them.  No surprise there.  Andrei Svechnikov is another.  Not much of a surprise there, either. But who had Martin Necas as the third member of the “five game-winning goals” club?  What makes Necas’ total even stranger is that those five game-winners have come on a total of only nine goals for the season.  And it gets even stranger.  Four of those game-winners came on a total of six goals in his first 22 games, before the calendar flipped to 2022.  Need another odd fact?  His five game-winners to date are almost as many as he had (six) in his first four seasons covering 125 games.  But while he has all those game-winners in a low number of total goals, he definitely as a road tilt to his game-winners, four of them coming on the road, although his most recent game-winner, in a 3-2 win over Seattle on March 6^th, came on home ice.

While his goal scoring has an odd character to it, his points profile is rather conventional for a secondary scorer in terms of the relationship with wins and losses.  In the 24 games in which Necas has points, Carolina is 20-3-1.  But there is a bit of an odd aspect of the relationship of his ice time to wins and losses.  In 24 games when skating 16 minutes or less this season, Carolina is 19-2-3.  Necas is 1-2-3, minus-1, in six career games against the Caps.

Washington: Conor Sheary

If Nicklas Backstrom is the embodiment of consistency in his production, Conor Sheary’s defining attribute might be symmetry.  In 51 games this season, he has 15 goals and 15 assists.  In 26 home games this season, he has eight goals and eight assists.  In 25 road games, seven goals and seven assists. In 12 games in which he has goals, six ended in wins, six ended in losses (twice in extra time).  In 429 career NHL games, he has 101 goals and 101 points. 

Sheary is another of those middle-six forwards whose ice time bears watching.  In 19 games this season in which he skated less than 15 minutes, the Caps are 14-2-3, but they are just 14-12-6 in the 32 games in which he skated more than 15 minutes.  And then there is the level of his physical engagement and its relationship to wins and losses.  The Caps are 18-5-2 in the 25 games in which he was credited with at least one hit, 10-9-7 in the 26 games in which he did not receive credit for any hits.  Along those lines, Washington is 15-4-5 in the 24 games in which he was credited with at least one blocked shot, 13-10-4 in the 27 games in which he did not have a blocked shot.  Sheary has been hot of late, going 4-5-9, plus-2, in his last 11 games.  He is 4-7-11, plus-4, in 17 career games against Carolina.

In the end…

Chances are, if the Caps are to find a way out of the Eastern Conference in the playoffs to reach a Stanley Cup final, the path runs through Raleigh.  And Washington might find itself facing the Hurricanes on their first stop; if the season ended today, Washington would face Carolina in the first round of the postseason.  The Caps have not been intimidated by the Hurricanes in Carolina, at least in the regular season, sporting a 4-1-0 record in Raleigh since they won the Stanley Cup in 2018.  But the Caps are 0-3 in Carolina in the postseason since winning the Cup.  In that context, winning in Carolina would not be all that surprising, even with the dominance the Hurricanes have displayed on home ice all season.  In that context, give this one to the Caps, but let’s not make too much of it.  More meaningful games at PNC Arena could be in the Caps’ near future.

Capitals 3 – Hurricanes 2

 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 62: Capitals at Blue Jackets, March 17th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

After treating fans to a milestone, some extra hockey, and a freestyle competition that seemed as if it might go on forever – all in one game -- the Washington Capitals head back on the road on St. Patrick’s Day to face the Columbus Blue Jackets at Nationwide Arena.

The Caps will take a six-game points streak (5-0-1) into their contest with Columbus, while the Blue Jackets will be playing in the back half of a back-to-back set of games after visiting the Ottawa Senators on Wednesday night.

Since defeating the Caps, 5-4, to open February, Columbus has been very much an up-and-down team with the sort of performance one might expect of a club whose last remaining flicker of hope for a playoff spot is all but extinguished.  Columbus will be trying to post their third streak of three or more wins since the beginning of February when Washington visits.  The Blue Jackets have a 10-5-2 record since February 1^st wrapped around those winning streaks, but it would appear too little, too late, with Columbus sitting 13 points behind the Caps for the second wild card spot in the Eastern Conference with 22 games to play as of Wednesday morning.

Over those 17 games, Columbus has demonstrated an ability to score, averaging 3.65 goals per game over that stretch, seventh in the league.  Their scoring has been done it with depth, especially among the defensemen. In those 17 games, six of the nine defensemen to dress for Columbus have goals, and all of them have at least one point.  Zach Werenski leads the defense over that span in goals (four), assists (eight), points (12), plus-minus rating (plus-3), shots on goal (49), has one of the two power play goals for the defense (Adam Boqvist has the other), leads in power play points (three), and he has the only game-winning goal for the defense.  He posted these numbers while missing four of the 17 games due to an upper-body injury.

Despite this being only his sixth NHL season, Werenski is ranked highly among a number of all-time statistics for Columbus defensemen.  He is fifth among Blue Jacket defensemen in games played in team history (389), first in goals (75), second in assists (151), first in points (226), 13^th in plus-minus rating (plus-4), first in power play goals (18), first in power play points (75), second in overtime goals (five), tied for first in game-winning goals (12), first in shots on goal (1,005), sixth in minutes played (9,036), eighth in blocked shots (443), second in takeaways (175), first in first goals of games (13), tied for first in empty net goals (two), and second in empty net points (eight).  Werenski has been on an extended run of production leading up to tonight’s game against Ottaway, going 4-11-15, plus-3, in his last 16 games.  He is 2-4-6, minus-3, in 17 career game against the Caps.

Of 24 skaters to dress for Columbus over these last 17 games, 20 have goals. Jakub Voracek has only two of them, but he has 13 assists to go along with them, most of any of the Blue Jackets over those games. Voracek has never been an elite goal scorer, but not for lack of talent in that area.  He does have six 20-goal seasons in 13 seasons before this one.  But this season, in the first year of his second tour with the team that originally drafted him (seventh overall in the 2007 Entry Draft), his shooting efficiency has been mysteriously poor.  His 2.9 percent shooting (three goals on 104 shots) is the worst of his career by a significant margin (5.2 percent with Philadelphia in 2015-2016).  If there is a silver lining here, and it is most like a sliver than a lining, it is that while he had one goal on 80 shots (1.3 percent) in his first 42 games, he is 2-for-24 (8.3 percent) in his last 15 games.

But goal scoring isn’t where Voracek’s contributions have been most felt.  Assists are his thing.  He has 40 assists overall, which is tied for 22^nd in the league, but 30 of those helpers are primary assists, which is tied for fifth in the league.  His assist production is not out of the ordinary, either.  Since he arrived in the NHL in 2012-2013, his 436 assists rank sixth overall, and his 265 primary assists rank fifth.  Despite playing in only 298 games as a Blue Jacket in his career (26^th in team history), he ranks 11^th in total assists (135) and seventh in primary assists (88).  Among 96 players to have skated in at least 100 games for the franchise, Voracek ranks sixth in total assists per game (0.45) and third in primary assists per game (0.30).  Listed as day-to-day with a knee injury, he is 15-24-39, minus-2, in 50 career games against Washington.

While Columbus has been able to put the puck in the net over their 10-5-2 run, they have not been able to keep pucks out of their own net, allowing 3.65 goals per game over that stretch, equaling the 3.65 goal per game they scored.  While not all of a team’s problems with scoring defense is the fault of goaltending, it remains that Columbus’ goaltenders have poor numbers over this stretch.  Three goalies have started games over this 17-game stretch – Elvis Merzlikins (12), J-F Berube (four), and Joonas Korpisalo (one). Only twice did any of them allow fewer than three goals, both by Merzlikins, one goal on 31 shots in a 2-1 win over Montreal on February 12^th and two goals on 38 shots in a 3-2 Gimmick win on March 11^th.  Opponents posted four or more goals nine times in the 17 games, seven times by Merzlikins and once each by Berube and Korpisalo.   

As a group, their combined save percentage over this stretch is .899, Berube being the best of the trio at .924, but he has not appeared in a game since February 25^th.  And it is not as if the Merzlikins/Korpisalo pair is in a slump.  Over the full season, among the 51 goalies logging at least 1,000 minutes, Merzlikins ranks 48^th in goals against average (3.44) and 38^th in save percentage (.902), while Korpisalo ranks last in that group in goals against average (.395) and save percentage (.885).  Merzlikins is 1-0-0, 4.00, .879 in his only career appearance against the Caps, while Korpisalo is 3-1-1, 1.74, .945, with one shutout in six career appearances against Washington.

1.  In their 10-5-2 run, Columbus has six one-goal wins, tied for second most in the league since February 1^st.

2.  Columbus’ goal differential be period has been almost exactly break-even – minus-1 in the first periods of games and even in both the second and third periods of games.

3.  The 871 shot attempts at 5-on-5 allowed over those 17 games is fifth-most in the league, their minus-151 shot attempts differential at fives is third-worst in the league, and their 45.3 percent shot attempts-for at 5-on-5 is third-worst in the league.

4.  The Blue Jackets have allowed 45 goals at 5-on-5 over this 17-game span, fifth-most in the league.

5.  In the second game of back-to-back sets this season, no team has a worse scoring defense than the Blue Jackets (4.56 goals allowed per game).

1.  Washington has played three straight games that went into extra time (2-0-1), their longest such streak of the season and longest since they played in four straight extra time games in Games 3-6 last season (1-0-3).

2. Tuesday’s 4-3 Gimmick win was the 144^rd game in team history that went to the freestyle competition (tied for 20^th-most all-time).  The eight rounds they went with the Islanders was the eighth-longest session in team history and longest since they set a team record with a 20-round Gimmick in a 2-1 loss to Florida on December 16, 2014.  It was the third-longest Gimmick that ended in a win in team history.

3.  The Caps have the third-best scoring defense in road games this season (2.63 goals allowed per game).

4.  Washington scored first in 22 road games so far this season, most in the league; they have 14 wins when scoring first in road games this season, tied for second-most in the league (Boston: 15).

5.  Although the Caps have trailed first in only eight of 22 road games this season, their 4-2-2 record when doing so is second-best in the league by winning percentage (.500; Los Angeles: 9-5-3/.529).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Columbus: Patrik Laine

When Patrik Laine posted 138 goals in 305 games over his first four seasons with the Winnipeg Jets, tied for seventh-most I the league over that span, he was perhaps the most recent (at the time) entry in the sweepstakes to replace Alex Ovechkin as the league’s most prolific goal scorer (note: Ovechkin led the league with 181 goals in 313 games over those four seasons).  But then, things took a turn.  Laine played in the season opener for Winnipeg in 2020-2021, posting a pair of goals, including the overtime game winner, in a 4-3 win over Calgary.  But a few days later he suffered an injury in practice, and then, confirming trade rumors that had been swirling around him, he was dealt to Columbus with Jack Roslovic to Columbus for a third-round draft pick in 2022 and Pierre-Luc Dubois.  Laine posted only ten goals in 45 games and had a hideous minus-29 rating to boot. 

This season, Laine had to contend with a 19-game absence due to a strained oblique muscle, but he still has 23 goals in 41 games, an impressive goal scoring pace, his 0.56 goals per game ranking ninth among players appearing in at least 40 games. He has goals in 17 games this season, and Columbus is 14-2-1 in those games.  It is part of a larger trend of engagement associated with Blue Jacket success; Columbus is 12-1-2 when Laine posted at least four shots on goal.  He does have an odd aspect to his home and road splits, though.  In 17 road games he has 12 goals on 43 shots, a 27.9 shooting percentage.  But on home ice, he is just 11 for 75, a 14.7 shooting percentage.  Still a fine efficiency mark, but not as impressive as his work on the road in this area.  Laine is 3-1-4, minus-9, in nine career games against the Capitals.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

One of the defining aspects of Nicklas Backstrom’s game is his consistency – from year to year, from game to game, and it seems from shift to shift.  When he had his season debut delayed as a result of rehabilitating a hip injury, it might be expected that his consistency might suffer as he rounded himself back into game shape.  From a performance standpoint, that has not been entirely the case so far this season.  Break the 28 games he has played so far into thirds. In his first nine games, he went 2-6-8, plus-3, shooting 8.7 percent, and averaging 17:42 in ice time.  In his next nine games he went 2-4-6, minus-2, shooting 15.4 percent, averaging 18:08 per game.  In his last ten games he is 1-5-6, minus-4, shooting 7.7 percent, averaging 17:41 in ice time. 

He has slowed down a bit in his personal production, but while the Caps went 5-3-1 in his first nine games and 4-5-1 in his next nine games, the Caps are 6-3-1 in his last ten games and riding a six-game points streak (5-0-1).  But there is an odd disconnect between his performance and the team’s so far.  In 16 games in which Backstrom has points, the Caps are just 7-7-4, while they are 8-4-0 in the 12 games in which he did not record a point.  He also has an odd home-road split in his 28 games to date.  In 14 road games, Backstrom is 3-8-11, plus-3, shooting 12.0 percent, and averaging 17:17 in ice time per game.  However, in 14 games on home ice he is 2-7-9, minus-6, shooting 8.3 percent and averaging 18:22 in ice time per game.  Backstrom is 8-20-28, minus-9, in 37 career games against Columbus.

In the end…

Although Columbus won its last two games on home ice, their home record over the last three months has been generally unremarkable (8-9-3).  It is a team with less and less to play for with each passing game, and a team as leaky as this should be vulnerable to a team that has scored 24 goals in its last six games and four or more in five of them.  If the Caps can strike early, it could end the competitive portion of this game early.

Capitals 5 – Blue Jackets 2