The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 67: Devils at Capitals, March 26th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return home on Saturday night to complete their back-to-back set of games, hosting the New Jersey Devils.  For theses teams, this game will close the season series, each team winning one game of the series to date, the Caps opening the three-game season series with a 4-1 win in New Jersey on October 21^st, and the Devils returning the favor in Washington on January 2^nd with a 4-3 overtime win.

That win in January was the third win in a three-game winning streak for the Devils, arguably the high point of their season.  They quickly fell on hard times after that win and stayed there, their 10-21-0 record since then being worst in the league in points earned (20) and points percentage (.323).  Offense has not been a serious issue for the Devils during their 31-game slide, their 3.23 goals per game ranking 12^th in the league over that span.  The problem has been a defense that has allowed 3.77 goals per game, the 29^th-ranked scoring defense over that stretch.

You might say that the deterioration of the Devils’ scoring defense corresponds with losing goalie Mackenzie Blackwood to a heel injury shortly after the win against the Caps.  However, he had ben playing poorly since the end of November, going 5-8-1, 3.58, 877 over a 15-game stretch before leaving the lineup, the poor results perhaps a product of the heel problem.  Three goalies have played since then – Nico Daws, Jon Gillies, and Akira Schmid – but the Devils seem to have settled on Daws, and perhaps not just in Blackwood’s absence, the Devils are said to have shopped Blackwood at the trading deadline. 

Whether Daws is the next goalie of the future for the Devils is a question for another day, but he is struggling somewhat in the present.  Since Blackwood left the lineup, he is 6-7-0, 3.06, .903, an improvement over Blackwood’s pre-absence performance but still 37^th of 53 goalies with at least 400 minutes over that span and 33^rd in save percentage.  His even strength save percentage  (.913) ranks 26t of 43 goalies playing in at least 10 games over that stretch, nestled between Philipp Grubauer and Sergei Bobrovsky in that category.  It is understandable that Daws would have middle-of-the-road numbers at best with a young tram with a poor record, and to that add that he is a 21-year old rookie who happens to be the only goalie in his draft class (2020, third-round, 84^th overall) to have played in an NHL game to date.  His home/road splits are mirror images of one another.  He is 6-1-0, 2.41, .917, with two no-decisions in nine games at home, but he is 1-6-0, 3.90, .883 in seven games on the road.  This would be his first career appearance against the Caps.

New Jersey’s team defense has been a shared mess, if even strength goals on and off ice among the individuals is an indicator.  Of 27 skaters to dress since the Devils beat the Caps to start the new year, only three skaters are not minus players in even strength goal differential, and forward Jesper Bratt is the only player in positive territory (plus-2).  If not for his having a career season, there is no telling how much worse this season might be going for the Devils.  In four NHL seasons before this one, Bratt’s career high in goals was 16 in 60 games in 2019-2020; he had a career high of 25 assists in 51 games in 2018-2019, and his career best in points was 35 points in 74 games as a rookie in 2017-2018.  

So far this season, in 59 games, Bratt has eclipsed his career highs I all three categories, going 21-42-63.  His home/road splits are rather consistent, going 10-23-33, plus-6, in 30 games on home ice with a 13.2 shooting percentage, while on the road he is 11-19-30, minus-4, in 29 games with a 12.6 shooting percentage.  And Bratt is a player with promise, based on his early career numbers.  At age 23 with 290 games played for the franchise, he is third all-time in points among those Devils with fewer than 300 games played and age 23 or younger (193), trailing only Petry Sykora (221) and Brendan Shanahan (214).  He has improved his production over time this season.  Over his last 30 games only once did he go consecutive games without a point and is 13-26-39, plus-1, over that span.  Bratt is 3-2-5, minus-1, in 19 career games against the Capitals.

Nine rookie skaters have dressed for the Devils so far this season, and the leader in games and scoring in that group is center Dawson Mercer.  While it seems unlikely he will get a lot of attention in the Calder Trophy voting for the league’s top rookie this season, he ranks highly among rookies in a number of offensive categories – tied for third in games played (64), tied for fourth in goals (16), tied for eighth in assists (20), tied for sixth in points (36), tied for fourth in even strength goals (13), sixth in even strength points (29), and he is one of six rookies with a shorthanded goal.  Mercer is also fourth among rookie forwards in blocked shots (29) and is second in takeaways (43).  And on a team that struggles as much as New Jersey, he if tied for third among rookies in even strength goals for on-ice (50).  Not that he has avoided the defensive trouble that have plagued the Devils; he has been on ice for the third-most even strength goals among all rookies (53).  As one might expect of a rookie, though, his home/road splits are, well, split.  In 32 games on home ice, Mercer is 11-13-24, plus-11.  But on the road, in 32 games, he is 5-7-12, minus-15.  He is just 1-1-2, minus-5, in his last seven road games, all which were losses for the Devils.  Mercer is 0-1-1, minus-3, in two career games against Washington.

1.  The Devils are tied for last, with Montreal, in scoring defense on the road this season (4.00 goals allowed per game).

2.  New Jersey’s road power play lacks power; they rank 31^st in the league at 13.2 percent.

3.  If the Devils do one thing well on the road, it is score early.  Their 36 first period goals in road games rank third-most in the league. Unfortunately, they seem to give it all back in the second periods of road games.  The 50 middle period goals allowed is most in the league.

4.  No team in the league has fewer wins in road games when scoring first than the Devils (five), and their .357 winning percentage when scoring first (5-8-1) is last in the league.

5.  The Devils are the only team in the league with winning percentages under .300 in one-goal games -- .273 in one-goal decisions (3-6-2), .286 in two-goal decisions (2-5), and .214 in decisions of three or more goals (3-11).

1.  Washington has the fourth-worst winning percentage in one-goal decisions on home ice (.333/5-5-5). 

2.  The Caps 15-13-5 record in 33 home games to date is their third-worst winning percentage (.530) in 17 seasons since the 2004-2005 lockout. 

3.  The Capitals scoring defense on home ice (3.00 goals allowed per game) is the fourth-worst since the 2004-2005 lockout.

4.  Washington’s net penalty kill on home ice after shorthanded goals for are accounted for (89.9 percent) is their best since the 2004-2005 lockout.

5.  The Caps have allowed only 27.8 shots per game on home ice this season, third-fewest since the 2004-2005 lockout.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New Jersey: P.K. Subban

At 32 years of age, defenseman P.K. Subban, the elder statesmen among the New Jersey skaters, is not the force he was in Montreal, the team with which he began his NHL career and for which he played seven seasons, or that he was in Nashville, for that matter, a city in which he spent three seasons.  Now in his third season with the Devils, Subban has yet to hit the 30-point mark, something he did in each of his nine full seasons before arriving in Newark.  His 21 points in 61 games so far this season is his high-water mark to date with the Devils.  He has yet to produce a power play goal after 11 straight seasons in which he had at least two   In fact, he has yet to produce a power play point so far this season. But then again, he is averaging only 42 seconds per game in power play ice time, compared to Dougie Hamilton, who leads the defense with 2:28 in power play ice time per game.  Still, it is the lowest average power play ice time of his career by more than a minute per game (2:02 per game with the Devils last season).  He is not getting much time killing penalties, either, his 51 seconds per game being the third-lowest average ice time on the penalty kill of his career. 

The lack of work on special teams has left Subban with the lowest total average ice time of his career at 18:49 per game, the first season in which he averaged less than 20 minutes per game.  He has gone 15 games without hitting the 20-minute mark, the last time he did it being back on February 13^th in a 4-2 loss to Pittsburgh (20:25).  In 39 career games against the Caps, Subban is 1-11-12, minus-13.

Washington: Evgeny Kuznetsov

After a couple of disappointing seasons of offensive production, one might call Evgeny Kuznetsov “The Happy Warrior” these days.  He is a point-per-game player (1.02 points per game) for the first time since his career year in 2017-2018, when he averaged 1.05 points per game.  His 22 goals in 62 games is his first 20-plus goal season since he had 21 in 76 games in 2018-2019.  His eight power play goals is tied for a career high set in 2018-2019.  And, he has been more assertive shooting the puck, his 2.71 shots per game being a career high.  He even has two shorthanded goals this season, equaling his total over the previous two seasons combined and doubling his career total, and he has posted two shorthanded assists, the first shorthanded helpers of his career.

Kuznetsov’s production has been rewarded with more ice time, his 20:47 per game being the first time in his career he averaged more than 20 minutes per game, and his 23.7 shifts per game being almost three more per game than his previous career high (20.8 shifts per game in 2020-2021).  Much of that increase is the product of the shorthanded ice time he has logged, his 1:06 per game being a career high by almost a full minute per game (0:13 per game in 2018-2019).  The increase in shorthanded ice time has not come at the expense of the other side of special teams, his 3:44 in power play ice time per game being a career high.  Kuznetsov has been especially productive on home ice, where he is 13-23-36, plus-3, and with all four of his game-winning goals this season in 32 games at Capital One Arena.  If Kuznetsov records at least one point against Buffalo this evening, he would go into Saturday’s game against New Jersey on an 11-game points streak.  He currently stands at ten straight (7-6-13, plus-1).  He is 10-19-29, plus-13, in 34 career games against New Jersey.

In the end…

This is supposed to be the start of a weekend that is friendly to the Caps in terms of opponent.  Buffalo might have a weak overall record for the season, but they have played well lately and should not be underestimated.  As for the Devils, the air went out of their balloon weeks ago, and they come into their game with the Caps on a seven-game losing streak on the road and just 5-20-0 over their last 25 road games.  Even with this being the back half of a back-to-back set of games, this is a game the Caps should not lose.

Capitals 5 – Devils 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 66: Capitals at Sabres, March 25th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals, looking to get the bad taste of consecutive losses at home our of their mouths, head to chicken wing country to face the Buffalo Sabres at KeyBank Center on Friday night.  The challenge for the Caps, in addition to skating in an enemy rink, is to display something more than what looked like an indifferent effort in their 5-2 loss at home to the St. Louis Blues on Tuesday night.  The challenge for Buffalo is to try to finish another lost season with a sense of pride and mission while looking forward to how they can improve for next season.

These teams last met on December 11^th in Buffalo, a 3-2 Gimmick win for the Caps in Buffalo.  Since then, neither team has really distinguished itself.  With that victor in December, the Caps advanced their record to 17-5-6, but since then, they are 18-15-4, 18^th in the league in points earned and in points percentage (.541).  Their 3.16 goals per game over that span rank 16^th, while their 3.05 goals allowed per game scoring defense ranks 16^th as well.  Their special teams 0f 21.9 percent on power plays (15th) and 78.1 percent penalty kill (18^th) are similarly middle-of-the-road.  Buffalo, a thoroughly “twenty something” team, rank 27^th in scoring offense (2.59) and 20^th in scoring defense (3.41).  Their 25^th ranked power play (18.1 percent) and 27^th ranked penalty kill (73.5 percent) over that span reflect their overall statistical profile over that span.

Alex Tuch was obtained by the Sabres in November from the Vegas Golden Knights in a somewhat complicated trade deal for essentially Jack Eichel going west to Las Vegas.  He was expected to replace some of the offense Eichel might have been expected to produce, and he has been one of the few bright spots for Buffalo since that loss to the Caps in December.  In 32 games since then, he is 8-18-26, plus-6, his 0.81 points per game ranking second over that span among Sabres appearing in at least five games.  However, his performance is lagging behind previous years in a couple of areas.  This might be a product of a shoulder injury that required surgery and delayed his participation the Sabres after the trade until December 29^th, almost two months after the trade with Vegas.  And, he has been in COVID protocol since, missing two games in early January.  His 8.1 shooting percentage is the worst for a full season in his career to date.  His goals per 60 minutes are down a third from last season in Vegas (from 1.2 to 0.8 per 60 minutes).  But in other respects, he has done quite well, his assists per 60 minutes being the best of his career (1.8) a product of a career-best 1.2 primary assists per 60 minutes.  The result is that his points per 60 minutes (2.6) is the best of his career to date. 

Tuch’s contributions have been important, the Sabres going 10-6-3 in the 19 games in which he has points to date, 3-10-0 when he fails to put a mark on the score sheet.  He has, by far, the best goal differential/on ice-off ice at even strength since that loss the Caps in December, despite the limited number of games in which he played – plus-8, five points better than Zemgus Girgensons and Jaycob Bryson.  Tuch is 2-1-3, plus-2, in three career games against the Caps.

Rasmus Dahlin is a study in the limits of drafting a defenseman with the first overall pick of the draft.  Dahlin was the first overall pick of the 2018 Entry Draft and the first of 70 defensemen taken in that draft, almost a third of the entire draft class of 217 picks.  Dahlin is one of 23 defensemen from that class to dress for at least one NHL game.  He leads the defensemen in his class in games played (259), goals (27), game-winning goals (seven), power play goals (10)), credited hits (333), blocked shots (232), total minutes played (5,559), and penalty minutes (156); is second in assists (119), total points (146), takeaways (86), (in all three categories trailing Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes). 

But despite impressive numbers over his four years with the club, the Sabres are just 101-137-33, 29^th of 31 teams in existence over all four seasons in points (235) and points percentage (.434).  Over those four seasons, his minus-74 is third-worst among 459 defensemen to dress for at least one NHL game.  His minus-55 goal differential at even strength is tied for fourth-worst in the league over that span, but not as much a product of goals against on-ice in such situations (although the 242 goals against on-ice at evens is tied for 14^th-most in the league), he has been on ice for only 187 goals for at evens in 259 games, tied for 77^th in the league over those four seasons.  He is not in a position, or plays one in fact, that allows him to drive play as much as, say, a center taken with a number one pick might.  And the Sabres have not done a very good job in building around him.  Perhaps the Sabres will fare better having taken defenseman Owen Power with the top overall pick in the 2021 draft.  Dahlin is 2-6-8, minus-11, in 15 career games against the Caps.

No team in the league has employed more goaltenders this year than the Sabres, six in all (Craig Anderson, Dustin Tokarski, Malcolm Subban, Michael Houser, Aaron Dell, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, for the record; New Jersey has also employed six goalies).  Anderson and Tokarski have taken the most starts, 21 and 20, respectively, with similar results.  Anderson is 12-9-0, 3.04, .904; while Tokarski is 6-9-4, 3.09, .906, with the team’s only shutout, a 24-save effort in a 1-0 overtime win against Calgary on March 18^th.  Of the two, since the loss to the Caps in December, Tokarski has had the better performance numbers, 1 2.72 goals against average to 3.26 for Anderson, and a .911 save percentage to Anderson’s .897.  But Tokarski’s record (2-4-1 in seven appearances) is inferior to that of Anderson (8-7-0 in 15 appearances). 

Neither would appear to be in the Sabres’ plans moving forward.  Even with a current combined cap hit of $1.475 million and not performing at levels that would seem in line for significant raises, both are unrestricted free agents after this season, and both rather advanced in age to be building around (Tokarski will be 33 to open next season, and Anderson will turn 41 this May).  And consider that Tokarski has never had a season of more than the 21 games he has appeared in this season for Buffalo.  While the Sabres have considerable room under the salary cap this season, they have eight players about to reach unrestricted free agent status at the end of this season and three more on injured reserve (Subban, Boychuk and Caggiula) about to go UFA.  It is a lot of roster spots that the Sabres might have to fill.  They could go for a big signing, but it seems at least as likely that they go younger from one of the prospects in their organization.  Anderson is 11-9-2, 2.61, .915, with two shutouts in 23 career appearances against Washington, while Tokarski is 2-2-1, 2.94, .903, in five career games against the Caps.

1.  Buffalo has not had a shutout on home ice since October 14, 2019, when they shut out the Dallas Stars, 4-0, a string of 91 home games without a shutout and counting.

2.  In the 37 games played by the Sabres since they last met the caps, they have the most misconduct penalties in the league (eight), three more than Florida and Vegas.  They are the only team in that span to have taken exactly as many penalties as they have drawn (134 apiece).

3.  Buffalo has the worst faceoff percentage in the league since they last faced the Caps (46.2 percent).

4.  In their 37 games since the December meeting against Washington, the Sabres have the third-worst record in the league when leading after two periods by winning percentage (8-1-3/.667).

5.  Since Buffalo last faced the Caps, only Anaheim has fewer wins when trailing after two periods (one) than the Sabres (two, tied with four other teams).

1.  In their 37 games since last facing Buffalo, the Caps have allowed 47 second period goals, second-most in the league over that span (New Jersey 52).

2.  Over that span, the Caps have scored only 70 goals at 5-on-5, 25^th in the league.

3.  On the other side, they allowed only 69 goals at 5-on-5, seventh-fewest in the league.  However, they allowed four goals at 5-on-6, second-most in the league (tied with Dallas and Columbus, and trailing Colorado (six)).

4.  The Caps scored 11 empty net goals over those 37 games, tied for fourth-most in the league.

5.  Washiington scored first in 23 of those last 37 games, but their winning percentage of .565 in those games (13-7-3) is third-worst in the league over that span.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Buffalo: Tage Thompson

So, just what deal did Tage Thompson make with fate to have the season he is having?  In 145 games over tour seasons before this one, he compiled a total of just 18 goals and 35 points.  Through 60 games this season he already has 27 goals and 48 points, both of which lead the team.  He has spread the goal scoring around by situation, scoring 19 at even strength (second on the team), six on power plays (tied for the team lead with Kyle Okposo), and two shorthanded goals (leads the team).  He is shooting at a 13.2 percent rate of success, almost five percentage points better than hie previous career best (8.3 percent with the Sabres last season).  He has almost twice as many shots on goal (205) as his previous career best (108 least season).  And, given Buffalo’s standard of performance this season (generally poor), his goal scoring matters.  The Sabres are 10-9-1 in the 20 games in which he has a goal, 11-22-7 in the 40 games in which he did not post a goal.

Thompson has been especially productive on home ice, posting a scoring line of 19-12-31, plus-3, and 16.0 shooting percentage in 31 games.  Compare that to his road scoring line of 8-9-17, minus-14, and a 9.3 shooting percentage.  He has 13 goals in his last 18 games overall (the Sabres posting a 9-9-0 record) and nine in his last 11 games at home, including three multi-goal games (the Sabers being 6-4-1 in those 11 games).  In 14 career games against Washington, Thompson is 2-3-5, minus-2.

Washington: John Carlson

For a player who is sixth in goals and tied for sixth in points among defensemen. John Carlson is sure flying below the radar.  The white hot run of offense by Nashville’s Roman Josi (an 11-game points streak over which he is 4-21-25 and 35 points in his last 19 games), the youthful production of Cale Makar (first in goals by defensemen with 22 and second in points (71) to Josi (78)), and the solid year defending Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox is having (10-54-64) have overshadowed what has been a consistently productive season on offense for Carlson (11-42-53).   

And that consistency extends to a season-by-season basis.  Since 2010-2011, when Carlson became a full-time member of the Caps, no defenseman has more 30-point seasons than Carlson (11, tied with Drew Doughty and Kris Letang).  Since 2014-2015, only Josi (seven) has more 10-goal/40-point seasons than Carlson (six).  His goals per 60 minutes (0.5) is third-best of his career, while his assists per 60 minutes (1.7) and points per 60 minutes (2.2) each rank second in his career.  And, for as  much grief he gets about inconsistent play in the defensive zone, he is a respectable plus-16 in even strength goal differential (24^th in the league).  His 51 on-ice goals against is fewer than Fox (53), Letang (53), Josi (61), Hedman (64), or Burns (79, most in the league).  It is just that when he is on-ice for even strength goals against, bad things usually result – a 14-14-7 record for the Caps in the 35 games for which he has been on ice for an even strength goal.  Carlson is 4-12-16, plus-2, in 39 career games against Buffalo.

In the end…

Do not take the Sabres for granted.  Since March 1^st, they are 7-3-0, tied for the seventh-best record in the league by points (14) and tied for fourth in points percentage (.700).  They have done it with tighter defense, their 2.80 goals allowed per game over those ten games being the ninth-best scoring defense in the league over that span.  The Sabres are 4-2-0 at home since March 1^st.  And this will be the first of a back-to-back set of games for the Caps, who will host New Jersey on Saturday night.  It makes for one of those “trap” games teams encounter from time to time over the course of the regular season.  What the Caps cannot afford here is the same sort of indifferent level of effort they appeared to have in their loss to St. Louis earlier this week. 

Capitals 4 – Sabres 2