The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, March 31st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Yes, we’re back on this fine spring morning to bring you another prognostication, and this morning it’s . . .

“PEERLESS!”

Rodney?

“ho-ho . . . I tell ya, you guys don’t get NO respect, NO respect . . . “

Don’t I know it…

“Yeah, if you look up the family tree of hockey, you guys are the sap.”

Nice…

“Hey, we kid because we love…so, you guys are playing the Lightning…”

Yeah, and Lecavalier got his 50^th last night – maybe it’ll be some incentive for Ovechkin tonight.

“Hey, that’s Vinnie, right?...Did I ever tell ya about my doctor, Dr. Vinnie Boom Botz . . . one time he tells me, ‘you’re too fat,’ and I tell him I want a second opinion, and then he tells me, ‘you’re ugly, too’ . . . maybe he should take a look at your guys.”

Uh, you’ll have to check with Coach Hanlon about that one.

“Hey, I watched your guys last night against Florida – tough break, tough break . . . you guys don’t get no respect from anybody . . . I’ll bet when the guys put on their underwear, even the Fruit-of-the-Loom guys start laughing.”

You haven’t lost it, Rodney.

“So what’s the deal . . . last time I saw you guys, you weren’t this bad . . . if one of these guys stuck his head out o’ the window of the team bus, he’d get arrested for mooning . . . on Hallowe’en, parents will be sending their kids out dressed as Caps.”

C’mon, they’re not that bad…

“No, but I got a lot of material . . . “

Sure wish the Caps did . . .

The Lightning are one of the “serious six” clubs fighting for the last three playoff spots in the East (no, we’re not inclined to include Florida as a “seventh” . . . but that could change by midnight). They have to be licking their chops at the prospect of the Caps coming to town, if only for this number:

71.4

That is the Caps penalty killing rate over their last ten games. The Caps have scored 30 goals and given up 34 in going 2-6-2 in their last 10, but that 7-14 spread in power play for and against sticks out like Rodney’s trademark red tie. It might be the tonic for a Lightning power play that is only 5-for-37 on its own over the last ten games (13.5 percent).

Vincent Lecavalier scored his 50^th goal last night against Carolina, his first time eclipsing the 50-goal plateau and serving perhaps as a dagger in the Hurricanes flagging playoff hopes. Finally taking his place among the elites in the game, Lecavalier brings a 7-7-14 line in his last ten games into tonight’s contest.

The trouble is, though, Tampa Bay is only 5-5-0 in their last ten games. Why? Goaltending. An issue all year, it’s been magnified under the lens of the sprint to the finish. Last night the Lightning got a solid effort from Johan Holmqvist in the 4-2 win over Carolina. He’s been adequate in going 2-1-0, 2.87, .912 over Tampa’s last ten games. Marc Denis, who has been getting more of the work lately and could very well get the call tonight, given Holmqvist's struggles against the Caps (2-2-0, 4.31, .826), is 3-4-0, 3.76, .887 in his appearances over the last ten Lightning games. That isn’t far off his career numbers against Washington – 4-3-1-0, 3.71, .881.

The Caps can score against this team. They’ve scored 30 goals in seven games in the season series (they’ve given up 25, too). And, they can shut down the Lightning power play – 28-for-33, 84.5 percent, in the season series and scoreless in the last two games.

The difficulty for the Lightning is in keeping focus in the second half of a back-to-back set of games, this one being against a lesser opponent. Given the chance to take care of business, the Lightning have been treading water the last ten games. Last night was, for them, a step forward. Tonight is a step back…

Caps 4 – Lightning 2