Thursday, March 18, 2010

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, March 18th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Eight days ago, the Caps hosted the Carolina Hurricanes at Verizon Center, defeating the visitors, 4-3, in overtime. The Caps hope to prove to be as rude a visitor as they were a host tonight as the Caps head to Raleigh to take on Carolina in a rematch. This is the fifth meeting of the clubs this year, the Caps holding a 3-1 edge, although all of the wins were of the one-goal variety, and two of those were obtained in overtime. What’s more, the Caps will play tonight as Alex Ovechkin sits for the back half of his two-game unpaid vacation. Having heard that Ovechkin was “disappointed” at his having been suspended by the league for his hit on Brian Campbell last Sunday, we thought of another man who felt himself wrongly accused of a crime. We sat down with one of the most famous innocents in literature, Edmond Dantes, the Count of Monte Cristo, to get his take on the situation…

The Peerless Prognosticator: “Count, welcome.”

Edmond Dantes: ‘Thank you, and please, call me Ed… that ‘Count’ thing was just for the book.”

TPP: Well, Ed, you were stashed away in the Chateau d’If for a crime you did not commit. Our situation with Alex Ovechkin is a bit different – he committed the crime, but the question is the punishment. How does one handle what one feels is too stern a sentence?

ED: “I maintain my pride in the face of men, but I abandon it before God, who drew me out of nothingness to make me what I am."

TPP: An interesting piece of advice. How does one feel when the realization hits that you have been accused wrongly or, in this case, perhaps, judged wrongly?

ED: “His mind was filled with a single thought: that of his happiness destroyed for no apparent reason.”

TPP: When you came back into the world from prison, and when Ovechkin takes the ice on Saturday against Tampa Bay, what would be the natural thought one might harbor?

ED: “Farewell to kindness, humanity and gratitude. I have substituted myself for Providence in rewarding the good; may the God of vengeance now yield me His place to punish the wicked."

TPP: Isn’t that a bit severe? Ovechkin will still have the Stanley Cup to play for. Might this experience have benefitted him in some way?

ED: "Only a man who has felt ultimate despair is capable of feeling ultimate bliss."

Ah, well, thank you, Ed. That is something to keep in mind, but for tonight, the Ovechkin-less Caps will take the ice against an old and familiar nemesis. The clubs have split 28 goals right down the middle this year, the Hurricanes holding the only multi-goal win in this year’s series (a 6-3 win at Verizon Center in December). The Caps have won both contests in Raleigh this year and look for the road sweep tonight on the heels of sweeping the season series against Florida on Tuesday.

The big factor for the Hurricanes here, one which might have crippled their faint playoff chances, was Cam Ward going down to injury in early February. Although goalies Manny Legace and Justin Peters held the fort admirably for a time, the cracks might finally be appearing. Starting with the game eight days ago against the Caps, the pair have allowed 16 goals on 136 shots (.882 save percentage). The ‘Canes are 1-2-1 in those games, and their win came in overtime (against the Penguins… thanks, guys).

Edit... the overall numbers look like this...

It would appear Justin Peters will get the call in this game in what will be a contest of rookie goaltenders (Semyon Varlamov’s number is up for this one after Jose Theodore’s win over Florida on Tuesday). Peters, a second round draft pick in 2004 (38th overall), has played in six games in this, his rookie season. He is 4-2-0, 2.35, .923 in those appearances, but in his last three he is 1-2-0, 3.34, .887. And Peters is no shrinking violet, as this kerfuffle with Alexandre Picard in February 2009 indicates…

Carolina has suffered a bit of a goal scoring letdown in the eight days since taking the Caps to overtime. They did get four against the Penguins in a 4-3 overtime win, but were shutout by Phoenix in their next outing and managed only two in a 5-2 loss to Boston on Tuesday.

One of the problems is the curious lack of production from Eric Staal. True, he participated in the Vancouver Olympic Games, but his slump predates that hiatus. Staal has one goal (against his brother Jordan’s Penguins) in his last dozen games and is 1-6-7 over that span. He could very well break out of that slump tonight, given that he is 3-5-8, plus-3 in four games against the Caps this year. He has more goals, assists, and points against the Caps this season than he has against any other opponent.

Staal’s lack of production has been mirrored by the still-here Ray Whitney, at least in the post Olympic part of the year. Since the break Whitney is 1-2-3, minus-2, in eight games. However, unlike Staal, who has had a big year against the Caps, Whitney has only a single assist in four games this season after piling up 48 points in 52 career games coming into this year. It says in the Hurricanes media guide that the most played song on his iPod is “Oh Lord, It’s Hard to be Humble.” The way things are going for him lately – working through a slump on a team that will end its season early and playing a team against which he hasn’t had much success this season, he might find some of that humility.

There might not be many bright spots for the Hurricanes this year, but Joni Pitkanen might at least have a dull glow about him. He is Carolina’s leading scorer from the blue line and hasn’t had a bad post-Olympic part of the season (1-2-3, plus-3 in eight games). He is still playing a ton of minutes – not fewer than 24 since the break and three times over 30 – and is within shouting distance of his career high in points. At 5-35-40, he needs seven more points to set that career mark.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Jussi Jokinen

When Jokinen potted a goal against the Caps eight days ago, it was his 16th goal in 20 games. He had not gone consecutive games without a goal since January 14th when he had his seventh straight without one. Since that goal against the Caps, Jokinen has not found the back of the net in three games. Is the run over? He is 0-0-0, minus-4 in those three games. If the Hurricanes have a shot in this one, that three game streak can’t become four.

Washington: Tomas Fleischmann

Fleischmann did not score a goal against Carolina in any of the first 19 games he faced the Hurricanes in his career. But he has goals in two of his last three against them. What he still does not have is a goal against Carolina in Raleigh. He had the game-winner in the game eight days ago against Carolina and has contributed a decent, if not outstanding, 2-2-4, plus 3 line in eight games since the Olympic break. With Alex Ovechkin out, the Caps still do not really lack for offense, but with Fleischmann assuming a bigger responsibility in Ovechkin’s absence (he played 18:29 in the last game, the most ice time he’s received since the break), his contributions are important.


1. An Empty Box. The Caps struggle as a road team on the penalty kill. The Hurricanes have the seventh highest number of home power play opportunities in the league this season. Washington has the seventh highest number of shorthanded situations faced on the road. That is a potentially dangerous mix. Stay – out – of – the – box.

2. Steady wins the race. In four games since his return from injury, Semyon Varlamov’s save percentages have gone: .786, .862, .885, .889. Now, that won’t get you a seat on an all-star game bench, but it is consistent improvement. Here is the thing to watch. In his first three games back he allowed a total of seven third period goals. Last time out – none. He’s got to be able to slam the door in the third period.

3. Speaking of third periods… Carolina has allowed 83 third period goals this year. That is third worst in the league. The Caps have scored 98 third period goals this year, 11 more than the second place team. Carolina has played the Caps tough this year – three one-goal games and a three-goal win. But if this game is close after two, the Caps have quite a third period advantage.

In the end, the snow has melted, the cherry blossoms are about to bloom, and teams in Carolina’s situation are starting to look forward to getting outdoors and whacking a dimpled ball through the pines. The Caps, even without Alex Ovechkin, are a formidable team, especially capable of wreaking havoc on a goalie who has never faced them. Don’t be surprised if Carolina has to use two goaltenders tonight…

Caps 6 – Hurricanes 2


tarheelicane said...

fantastic post...hopefully the canes can use edmond dantes quotes to inspire revenge against the caps in the locker room tonight. ps what do you think about corvo & walker so far?

Santeri said...

Now I'm not saying Count wouldn't have a unique view on 8's suspension, but when you have a chance to talk to Edmund Dantes you'd sort of want to know what happens to him after the book!

The Peerless said...

tarheelicane... So far, Walker and Corvo appear to be as advertised and are filling the roles for which they were obtained. Walker is a high energy guy who can give some relief to a guy like Matt Bradley, who plays a similar game.

Corvo is here to give some relief to Mike Green, who eats up a lot of minutes and often would play the entire shift on a power play. Unfortunately, Corvo is also a bit as advertised in that he has occasionally taken himself out of plays. Part of that might be his style, part of it might be getting used to a new system. It's a little early to draw a conclusion about that so far.