Monday, January 30, 2012

What can one expect?

Over the course of his six-year career preceding this season, Alex Ovechkin has scored 105 goals in 171 games following an All-Star or Olympic Games break.  That works out to a 50.4 goals average per 82 games, precisely what his career average is overall for goals scoring per 82 games.

In the last two seasons he scored 21 goals in 46 games after the breaks, a 37.4 goal pace, slightly (but not significantly) higher than his 33.8 goals-per-82-games pace from the end of the Vancouver Olympics through the end of last season. 

Ovechkin is on a pace to score 33.6 goals this season, which means perhaps 14 more in the 32 games he is still eligible to play in before the end of the regular season.

Maybe it is the new normal.

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