Jason Chimera
Theme: “Twice and thrice over, as they say, good is it to
repeat and review what is good.”
-- Plato
In the years following Lockout I, Jason Chimera was one of
those NHL players who cobbled together a solid, if unspectacular resume,
recording seasons in which he would play 15 minutes a night as a forward for the Columbus
Blue Jackets, his goal totals settling in the mid-teens. He was a complementary player to the more
talented likes of Rick Nash or Nikolai Zherdev.
In the last week of December 2009, however, he was loosed
from the bounds of mediocrity that was the Blue Jackets, and he was traded to
the Capitals for Chris Clark and Milan Jurcina.
In one way his performance was unchanged (17 points in 39 games with
Columbus, 17 points in 39 games with the Caps), but in another it was the
difference between an early summer and a less early summer. He was minus-7 with Columbus, plus-6 with the
Caps. The difference was that he part of
a better supporting cast.
When Chimera slipped a bit the following season – 2010-2011
(10-16-26, minus-10 in 81 games) -- one
might have had him penciled in as a third-liner going into the 2011-2012
season. In fact, that was the role he
adopted as the season started, manning the left side on a line with Brooks
Laich and Joel Ward, the “Meat and Potatoes” line. It worked for Chimera in the early going,
putting up three goals in the first two games and four in the first five. But by November 1st it was
apparent that this trio was not driving play.
Ward would spend significant minutes on the fourth line;
Laich would move around as a product of his versatility and injuries, primarily
to Nicklas Backstrom, which left a large hole in the middle. Meanwhile,
Chimera was quietly putting together a career year. He got off to a fast start with those four goals in his first five games and 11 in his first 26 games. A 35-goal pace for a player whose career best to that point was 17 (in 2005-2006) was probably a bit much to hope for. But while Chimera did slump some at mid-season (he had only five goals in his next 46 games), he closed strong with four goals in his last ten games to finish with a career high of 20 goals, third best on the Caps. What is more, five of his goals were game-winners, and 12 of them either tied games or gave the Caps a lead.
Chimera was quietly putting together a career year. He got off to a fast start with those four goals in his first five games and 11 in his first 26 games. A 35-goal pace for a player whose career best to that point was 17 (in 2005-2006) was probably a bit much to hope for. But while Chimera did slump some at mid-season (he had only five goals in his next 46 games), he closed strong with four goals in his last ten games to finish with a career high of 20 goals, third best on the Caps. What is more, five of his goals were game-winners, and 12 of them either tied games or gave the Caps a lead.
Fearless’ Take…
Take those numbers and couple them to the fact that he was
one of only five Capital forwards averaging more than 50 seconds of both power
play and penalty killing time a game, and he was a rather important player.
At 5-on-5 he had the third-best Corsi value relative to quality of
competition among Caps forwards (numbers from behindthenet.ca). Taken together, he was no longer just a
complementary player, he was an important ingredient to success.
Cheerless’ Take…
Uh, cuz? I’m no math
whiz, but here are a few of them numbers you can chew on. At 5-on-5 his goals-for/on ice per 60 minutes…2.37. Goals-against/on ice per 60 minutes? Yup…2.37.
Goals-for/off ice per 60 minutes… 2.32.
Goals against/off ice per 60 minutes…2.32. If you want to argue that you want a player
in his position (a third liner) “breaking even” on goals for and against,
fine. But it’s hard to see where the
difference was made, despite the goals.
The Big Question… “New Normal” or do I hear a clock striking
midnight?
In setting a career high in goals last season Jason Chimera
did so without the benefit of shooting efficiency that was far outside his career
norm. Coming into the 2011-2012 season
his career shooting percentage was 9.03.
He finished the season at 9.76 percent on 205 shots. The shot total was also a career high and was
more than 50 shots higher than what had been his average per 82 games over his
career coming into the season (153).
Here is the odd number in those shot statistics. Chimera’s 10.4 shots per 60 minutes of total
ice time was not far off Alex Ovechkin’s 11.8.
By way of further comparison, Alexander Semin was next at 8.5 shots per
60 minutes of total ice time. If you are
thinking 20 goals might be the “new normal” for Jason Chimera, then 200 shots
is going to have to be the new normal for him.
If normal, it certainly would be new since he has not averaged more than
9.1 shots per 60 minutes of ice time in any season before last year. Exclusive of last season he has averaged 8.1
shots per 60 minutes of ice time over his career. If he reverts to 8.1 shots per 60 minutes and
shoots at 9.03 percent (his career average before last season) over the same
1,184 minutes he had last season he will be back to 14 goals. It is a long way around the barn to say that
the answer to the question is all about shots on goal.
In the end…
It is nice that Jason Chimera had a career year. It is nice that he is the second-leading goal
scorer from last season returning to the Capitals (Alexander Semin’s 21 goals
having gone to Carolina). It is not
necessarily nice that he be counted on to duplicate either of those
outcomes. It seems
unlikely that he will: a) duplicate last season’s 205 shots on goal, or b)
match last season’s 9.76 percent shooting percentage (the second would be more
likely to happen than the first).
Chimera has established himself as a reliable third-line
contributor with something of a flair for the dramatic (he tied for the
team-lead in game-winning goals last season, and four of his seven playoff
goals are game-winners). Getting 20
goals again would certainly be a bonus and certainly not unwelcome, but having
Jason Chimera finish as the second or third leading goal scorer on this team with
that total probably would leave the team realizing less than a hoped for level
of success.
Projection: 79 games, 15-18-33, plus-3
Photo: Patrick McDermott/Getty Images North America
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