Mathieu Perreault
Theme: "To
improve the golden moment of opportunity and catch the good that is within our
reach is the great art of life."
-- Samuel Johnson
Do good things come in threes? Consider the case of Mathieu Perreault. Three seasons he spent at Acadie-Bathurst
Titan in the QMJHL. By the time he was
finished he was averaging close to two points a game (34-80-114 in 65 games in
his final regular season). Three seasons
he spent with the Hershey Bears in the AHL, and by the time he completed his third season – actually he split time
between Hershey and Washington – he was a point a game player (35 points in 34
regular season games).
Perreault just completed his third season in the NHL, and
the term “continuous improvement” applies.
He played in 21 games in his first season, 35 in his second, and 64 last
season. His goal totals jumped from 4 to
7 to 16; his points from 9 to 14 to 30.
He was a very efficient goal scorer in 2011-2012. Among the Capitals he had the fourth highest
goals-per-game average – 0.25, behind only Alex Ovechkin (0.49), Nicklas
Backstrom (0.33), and Alexander Semin (0.27).
More impressive is that had he qualified (he lacked the minimum number
of shots on goal) his 26.7 percent shooting percentage would have led the
league by a wide margin (Curtis Glencross, 23.6 percent).
That shooting efficiency made for your odd Perreault
fact. He recorded goals in 13 games last
season. In seven of them he recorded a
goal on his only shot of the game, and in a two-goal game against the Detroit
Red Wings in October 2011 he accomplished the feat on the only two shots he
recorded on goal. In his lone hat trick
game – against Boston in January 2012 – he notched the three goals on the
comparatively inefficient five shots on goal (60 percent), his high shot total of any game
of the 2011-2012 season.
That efficiency did not make its presence known in the
playoffs, though. Four games, one shot on goal, no points. In fact, Perreault recorded more hits in four
games (seven) than shots on goal attempted (two, the other shot taken was a
miss). As noble as it might be that
Perreault averaged almost as many hits per game (1.75) as, say, Jason Chimera
(1.79), that is not what he is out there to do.
He did not dress for any of the Caps last ten post season games.
Fearless’ Take…
Perreault had by far the highest goals for/on-ice per 60
minutes at 5-on-5 among Caps forwards playing in at least 40 games last season
(3.36 to 3.02 for Alexander Semin). He
also had the best differential of goals for/on ice to goals for/off ice at
5-on-5 among the same group of forwards (+1.18 to +1.00 for Semin). PDO…second highest in this group. Penalties drawn per 60 minutes…tops. Corsi/on ice value at 5-on-5…tops by a mile
(11.54 to 5.21 for Semin). He recorded
13 goals in his last 37 games, a 29-goal scoring pace, and was a plus-10 for a
plus-22 pace. In those last 37 games he
was arguably the Caps’ most effective offensive player not named “Ovechkin” (21
goals in his last 37 games).
Cheerless’ Take…
As long as we’re comparing those fancy numbers (which come
from behindthenet.ca)… quality of competition at 5-on-5: next to last among
Caps forwards playing at least 40 games.
Corsi relative to quality of competition: last. On ice save percentage: lower than every
forward except Nicklas Backstrom and Troy Brouwer, both of whom faced stiffer
competition (that’s half your PDO, cuz).
Offensive zone starts: third, behind only Alex Ovechkin and Backstrom. His goals against/on ice per 60 minutes at
5-on-5 was middle of the pack among Caps forwards (seventh of 13 in the group),
but that looks like it was more his being protected from stiff competition and
having to face it more often in the offensive zone.
The Big Question… Just where does Mathieu Perreault fit?
Mathieu Perreault is nominally a center, but it would be
hard to think he has an inside track to any of the top three slots on this
team. Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Ribeiro
are certainly ahead of him, and Marcus Johansson probably has an edge over
Perreault on the third line, though that is by no means a certainty. Perreault is an opportunistic goal scorer, as
evidenced by his shooting percentage (he is over 20 percent in 120 career NHL
games), but he does not have many opportunities. That 26.7 percent shooting percentage last
season came while averaging less than a shot on goal per game. An offensive player is either going to have
to generate more opportunities for himself, or he is going to have to do it for
his teammates, and Perreault had fewer assists than goals both last season (14
to 16) and for his career (26 to 27).
In the end…
Alexander Semin bore the weight of being an “enigma” in his
seven seasons in Washington, but in his own way Mathieu Perreault is every bit
as enigmatic. He is efficient (high
shooting percentage), if not necessarily effective (low shot totals). He plays in the middle, but lacks
effectiveness as a playmaker (14 assists in 64 games last season, and he had the second
highest quality of teammates at 5-on-5), and is decent if not extraordinary on
faceoffs (50.8 percent last season, fifth best on the team among those taking
at least 200 draws). He put up very good
offensive numbers last season, but there is the sense that it came with
sheltered minutes.
Given where the Capitals are this season (if there is a
season), it would seem that the 12 minutes a game he got last season is where
Perreault could settle once more. Now,
can he duplicate that 26.7 percent shooting percentage? Not likely.
Why? Consider this. Since the lockout only two forwards have
played in at least 60 games in a season and finished with a shooting percentage of better than 25
percent. One is Perreault. The other, curiously enough, is Mike Ribeiro
(25.2 percent in 2007-2008 with Dallas), also now with the Caps. Only eight forwards playing in at least 60
games in a season since Lockout I finished better than 22 percent, including Perreault, and none of them
more than once.
Mathieu Perreault is an example of perseverance and the
presence to take advantage of an opportunity presented. He also has managed to exhibit improvement at
each level of play evidenced by his progress in juniors, the AHL, and with the
Caps to date. The object now is to marry
opportunity to the ability to raise his game to “catch the good that is within his
reach.”
Projection: 66 games, 12-14-26, plus-6
Photo: Elsa/Getty Images North America
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