A winning week. A pair of wins
against Southeast Division teams and a loss to a non-divisional opponent. It is part of a pattern on which the Caps are
going to have to improve, but for the moment, a winning week is a winning week.
Record: 2-1-0
The 2-1-0 week was the second winning week in the last three and
extended the Caps' non-losing streak to three weeks running (5-3-0 overall). When the Caps beat Carolina and Winnipeg this
week, it extended their winning streak against Southeast Division teams to five
games and improved their record against their divisional opponents to
5-2-0. That is the good news. The bad news is that with their loss to
Philadelphia on Wednesday, the Caps slipped to 3-9-1 against opponents outside
the Southeast Division.
Offense: 2.33/game (season: 2.75 / rank: 15th)
The good thing about the week is that seven different Caps had
goals. The bad thing is that seven
different Caps had one goal. The “top
line” (a term that really defies description these days with the revolving door
at left wing) of Mike Ribeiro, Alex Ovechkin, and Matt Hendricks (this week's contestant on the left side) had two
goals. Ovechkin had neither of
them. The defense had two goals this
week; Mike Green had neither of them.
John Erskine, who had one of the goals for the defense, had a two-point
week, ending a streak of eight games without a point. Something of a strange week. If there was a good takeaway from the week,
Nicklas Backstrom had a three-point week (1-2-3, plus-2), and he is now 1-8-9,
even, over his past eight games.
Defense: 1.33/game (season: 2.95 / rank: T-22nd)
100 is a nice round number. It
happens also to be the number of shots on goal the Caps allowed this week. Not so nice.
It contributed to a week in which the Caps were out-Fenwicked, 143-118. That is a lot of offense being directed at
Capital goaltenders. First and third
periods were troublesome; the Caps were outshot in the first and last frame by
a combined, 37-31 and 39-24, respectively.
They might have made a better week of it, results-wise, had they not
come out so flat against Philadelphia in the middle game of the week. The Flyers scored on their second and fifth
shots of the game (the second goal coming on a power play), and the Caps never
threatened after that in a 4-1 loss.
Goaltending: 1.33/.960/2 shutouts (season: 2.96/.904/3 shutouts)
Braden Holtby had, on balance, a very nice week. He was 2-1-0, 1.55, .954, with two
shutouts. That’s on balance. In the middle game he allowed four goals on
18 shots in less than 35 minutes of play.
But there were those two shutouts.
More impressive still, he recorded those shutouts facing a total of 68
shots on goal, the highest shot totals he faced in any of his six career
shutouts.
There is an odd recent pattern Holtby's shutouts, though. See if you can find it… March 25, 2012, a
28-save shutout… next game, three goals on 15 shots in 22:31. February 9, 2013, a 27-save shutout… next
game, five goals on 32 shots. February
26, 2013, a 33-save shutout… next game, four goals on 18 shots in 34:55. Tuesday against Boston could be…
interesting.
Oh, and let’s not forget Philipp Grubauer, who appeared in his first
NHL game in relief of Holtby in the loss to Philadelphia. He saved all 14 shots he faced in 25:05. In a strange way it resembled Holtby’s first
NHL appearance, one in which he got the win by stopping all four shots he faced
in 10:09 of ice time in a 5-3 win in relief over Boston in November 2010.
Power Play: 1-for-10 / 10.0 percent (season: 26.1 percent / rank: 4th)
Call it “regressing to the mean” if you like, but this week was a
downer for the power play. The Caps
failed to convert on their last eight opportunities in a 1-for-10 week. The Caps could manage only seven shots in
those eight missed opportunities. Alex
Ovechkin managed only three of those shots, all in the 4-1 loss to
Philadelphia. In going o-fer for the
last two games of the week, the Caps went consecutive games without a power
play goal for the first time this season.
Penalty Kill: 6-for-8 / 75.0 percent (season: 76.8 percent / rank: 27th)
The Caps were perfect against the Southeast teams they faced (5-for-5
against Carolina and Winnipeg) and not so against the other team (1-for-3
against Philadelphia). It is part of an
emerging pattern. For the season the
Caps have killed 80.8 percent of the shorthanded situations they faced against
Southeast Division teams. They have a
75.0 percent penalty kill against everyone else in the East. Recently the disparity is more
pronounced. Over their last five games
against Southeast teams the Caps are a perfect 14-for-14. But in their last five games against
opponents outside the division the Caps are killing penalties at a 66.7 percent
rate (14-for-21).
Paying the Price: 55 hits / 58 blocked shots (season rank: 25th
/ 21st)
This week’s takeaway is the fact that the Caps blocked almost 30
percent of the shot attempts they allowed.
It might not be surprising that John Carlson led the week with nine
blocked shots, or that John Erskine had eight.
But Mike Ribeiro had six, five of them in the 3-0 shutout of Carolina to
start the week.
Faceoffs: 99-for-185 / 53.5 percent (season: 51.2 percent / rank: 9th)
The Caps keep climbing the rankings in this category. They won the week and won two of three games
in the circle, but their performance was not uniform in all three zones. The Caps were fine in the defensive end,
winning 30 of 53 draws for the week (56.6 percent), but they struggled a bit in
the offensive end, going 26-for-55 (47.3 percent). One of the odder numbers of the week was “1.” That was the number of offensive zone draws
taken by Mike Ribeiro in the 4-1 loss to Philadelphia, that in a game in which
he was otherwise 7-for-10 in the other two zones.
Turnovers: Minus-8
The Caps lost the week, and they lost each game in the turnover
matchup. It did not seem to matter much
if the Caps gave the puck away (22 giveaways against) or had it taken from them
(27 takeaways against), but turning the puck over a touch over 16 times a game
(arbitrariness of the measures notwithstanding) is something to work on.
In the end…
With 28 games left, there are two ways to look at how this season might
unfold. The worst case scenario is this.
The Caps are 5-2-0 against Southeast Division teams, 3-9-1 against everyone
else. If they earn points against
opponents in these last 28 games in proportional fashion, they will earn
another 25 standings points, finishing with 42 points. That will not enable them to reach the
playoffs. That is lottery pick
territory.
On the other hand, in the best case scenario, if they finish their last
28 games with points earned proportional to what they accomplished over their
past nine games (6-3-0 for 12 points), they will finish 54 points. That would probably put them right on the
border line of playoff eligibility. But
here is the tough wrinkle thrown into that mix.
Between March 9th and April 7th – a period of 17
games – the Caps will play five back-to-back sets. None of them include both
games being played at Verizon Center. In fact, seven of the ten games overall
will be played on the road (including a pair in Winnipeg).
Realistically, though, the Caps’ season really comes down to the 16-game
stretch that starts on Tuesday against the Boston Bruins. That is how many games remain for the Caps
until the trading deadline on April 3rd. Six of those games are against Southeast
Division teams; the other ten against teams outside the friendly confines of
the Southeast. Unless the Caps find a
way to start beating non-divisional rivals with some regularity, their season
is going to be pretty much over three weeks before the schedule says it is.
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