The Washington Capitals have embarked on their second
ten-game segment of the season, but the first one merits some examination.
The Basics
If you compare the Caps’ first ten games this season with their
first ten from last season, here is how their numbers line up:
The Caps stumbled badly out of the gate last season, needing
a furious finish to win the last Southeast Division title. This season the Caps did not start with a
bang, but neither did they stub most of their toes stepping out into the
season. When the Caps beat Edmonton last
Thursday night in Game 10, they found themselves tied for fourth in the Metropolitan
Division with the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Compare that to last season when the Caps, with their 2-7-1 record after
ten games, not only were last in the Southeast Division, but were last in the
Eastern Conference.
Scoring is up, goals allowed are down. This is not to say, “problem solved,” since
the Caps have the lingering problem of their play at 5-on-5. But they do not have as long or as frequent
stretches of “what the hell game are they playing out there” that they had to
start last season.
One thing that does seem to have carried over from last
season’s first ten games to this season’s first ten is poor starts. In 2013 the Caps were outscored, 11-8, in the
first period of games and trailed five times at the first intermission. This season the Caps have been outscored in
the first period by a 9-5 margin in their first ten games. They have improved a bit in the lead/trail
aspect of their game starts, trailing only three times in ten games at the
first intermission. Five times the Caps
went to the locker room tied after 20 minutes, three of them being scoreless
games.
One thing the Caps did not do last season was take a lead
into the last 20 minutes. Only three
times did they have a lead to start the third period, and only once did they
win. They have not improved on the how
many – only three times in their first ten games have the Caps led after two
periods. However, the results have been
better with three wins in three tries.
Special Teams
The power play was decent to start the 2013 season for the
Caps – 20.0 percent on 8-for-40 performance.
It has been more efficient in the early going this season with a 29.7
percent success rate through ten games (11-for-37). The odd part is that the Caps recorded 54
power play shots on goal in both last year’s first ten games and this year’s. One difference is that the Caps were 8-for-54
last season (14.8 percent) versus 11-for-54 so far this season (20.4 percent). Another one speaks to a higher
efficiency. Eleven goals on 54 shots in
45:32 of power play ice time this season versus eight goals on 54 shots in
65:30 of power play ice time last season through ten games.
The differences in the penalty killing are more stark. The first thing to note is
opportunities. Last season the Caps
opened the season being shorthanded 47 times in their first ten games. This year they were down a man 34 times
through ten games, down almost 28 percent from last season. Next there is the kill rate – 74.5 percent through
their first ten games last season on their way to bouncing among the bottom
five in penalty killing all season. This
year they were 88.2 percent on the penalty kill through ten games, good for
second in the league. The shooting
efficiency presents an odd picture. Last
season the Caps allowed 12 power play goals on 78 shots over their first ten
games (.846 save percentage). Through
ten games this season the Caps were 40-for-44 stopping power play shots. Not only is the save percentage much better
(.917), it is much better than the team’s even strength save percentage (.902). Finally there is the time. Last season the Caps spent 71:43 on the
penalty kill over their first ten games.
This year that number has been pared down to 56:22 through their first
ten games. The only reason the numbers
are not more different is the fact that the Caps have killed a larger share of
those shorthanded situations they faced.
Offense
Last year the Caps were getting used to a new coach, a new
system, and their top offensive player was adapting to a new position, although
a bit hesitantly at first. Alex Ovechkin
was only 2-3-5, minus-4, in his first ten games, due in no small part to his
being matched with grinders Jay Beagle and Joey Crabb for a portion of that
stretch. A year later, very much settled
into his position as a right wing after spending his career as a left winger,
Ovechkin was 10-5-15, minus-3 in his first ten games.
Nicklas Backstrom did not seem to take the split from his
then-left/now-right wing too badly, going 1-7-8, minus-1 in his first ten games
last season. However, now that the
Ovechkin/Backstrom pair has been cemented on the top line, Backstrom came out
of the gate fast, going 1-10-11, minus-2, in his first ten games.
If there is a surprise, it might be Marcus Johansson. Last season he played in only eight of the
first ten games and recorded a goal as his only point over that stretch while
going minus-7. He has found a home on
the top line in the role of “sidekick” to the Butch and Sundance of Backstrom
and Ovechkin. Through ten games he did
not have a goal, but he had ten assists, five of them in his last three games
of the series.
Where the Caps are struggling is to get consistency out of
the second and third lines. Part of it
is experimentation, trying Eric Fehr as the third line center. Part of it is trying to find the right combination
of wingers to play alongside Mikhail Grabovski. That middle group of players –
Fehr, Grabovski, Troy Brouwer, Brooks Laich, Joel Ward, and Jason Chimera –
combined for 13 goals over their first ten games.
The personnel differences are Grabovski for Mike Ribeiro and
Brooks Laich returning to the lineup after spending most of last season
injured. Grabovski’s four goals through
ten games compare favorably to Riberio’s three over a similar stretch to start
last season. Laich, however, has
struggled to get consistent production.
Two goals and no assists (and a minus-4) is not what was expected,
especially as he settled into the second line center role at the end of the
ten-game run.
Defense
Five-on-five defense was a challenge last season at the
beginning of the Caps’ season, but if anything it has been more of one to start
this season. The Caps allowed 24 even
strength goals in their first ten games last season, while allowing 28 goals
through their first ten games this season.
Part of the problem this season is facing so many shots. Through ten games Capital goaltenders faced
286 shots at even strength. Even before
special teams shots on goal are considered, that number would put the Caps with
the 19th highest shots per game mark.
The problems cannot be wrapped in a nice, neat bow. Ten Caps have been on ice for ten or more
goals, six forwards and four defensemen.
That leaves it an open question about whether the problems are systemic –
something about defensive schemes that needs to be addressed by the coaching
staff – or a deficiency of attention or skill on the part of a group of players
that would be an ominous cloud hanging over the team as they head into their
next ten games.
One thing to take note of through ten games so far this
season is the Caps employing nine defensemen already. Only three Capital defensemen appeared in the
first ten games – Mike Green, Karl Alzner, and John Carlson. Jack Hillen was injured in Game 2, Connor
Carrick was sent down to Hershey after Game 5, and John Erskine missed three games
to injury. That meant that the Caps
brought Steve Oleksy out of the press box and Nate Schmidt down from
Hershey. Then, the Caps claimed
Alexander Urbom from the New Jersey Devils on waivers. If the Caps can get some continuity or
stability among their defensive pairs, it might improve the overall defense,
but it will not eliminate the problem that the Caps had coming into this season
about what their fourth, fifth, and sixth defensemen would look like.
Goaltending
Last season Braden Holtby and Michal Neuvirth split time,
Neuvirth getting 361 minutes over six games with a 1-4-1 record, and Holtby
getting 238 minutes and a 1-3-0 record.
Neither took the goaltending job for their
own. Neuvirth was 2.99, .893 through ten
games, while Holtby was 4.52, .862.
That has settled out.
Braden Holtby is the number one goaltender, although it did not prevent
him from another slow start this season.
In his first two appearances he allowed 12 goals on 45 shots, a .822
save percentage. Getting pulled in his
second appearance after 16 minutes might have been a wake-up call. Holtby was only 3-3-0 in his next six
appearances, but he had a 2.33 goals against average and a .933 save
percentage.
With Holtby having taken the reins firmly as the number one
goalie, Neuvirth has had limited work compared to his start last season. He has only one start so far, and it was a
long night. Five goals on 28 shots in a
5-1 loss to Colorado. His only other appearance over the first ten games was in relief against Calgary, one in which he finished with 27 saves on 28 shots in a 5-4 shootout
win.
In the end…
The Caps are better at this point this season than they were
at a similar point last season. Their
record is better, their offense is better, their defense is better… power play,
penalty killing, goaltending. That is
not the same thing as saying that the Caps are good. Not yet, certainly. There is still tinkering going on among the
second and third forward lines and the second and third defensive pairs.
One wonders, as the Caps start into their second ten-game
segment, which elements are sustainable.
A 29.7 percent power play would seem to be headed toward a bit of a
decline over time, and the Caps might not be as good as their 88.2 percent
penalty kill would suggest, especially when the save percentage on the penalty
kill is so much better than that at even strength.
On the other hand the Caps have had such sluggish offense
early in games. Their skill set suggests
this would not be a permanent feature of this season’s team. But the big ugly dog in the room is the Caps’
5-on-5 play that, incredibly, might be worse than last year at this time. If that does not improve, the second ten-game
segment might not look much different than the first.
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