The facts are that the Caps were within a shift and a glove
save of going 3-0 for the week. They were also within a Gimmick of going
0-3. That is the edge on which the Caps
played this week. As it was, they ended
up…
Record: 1-2-0
Here’s the good news, if you’re looking at the big
picture. In 2009-2010, when the Capitals
won their only President’s Trophy for the best record in the league, they
started the season 2-2-2. This past week
the Caps lost two of three games, each loss being essentially of the one-goal
type (they allowed an awarded empty net goal against Chicago in a 6-4 loss on
Tuesday).
How does one get in the position to lose twice in three
games and fail to win a third game in regulation? Fall behind.
In no game this week did the Caps take a lead into the first
intermission. They trailed twice after
20 minutes and were tied in the other instance.
For the record, the Caps didn’t hold a lead after 40 minutes in any game
this week, either. Hard to dictate pace
and personnel when you are always looking uphill.
Offense: 3.00/game (season: 3.00 / rank:T-12th)
Nine goals for the week is not bad on the surface of it, but
the Caps also played two games against teams without top-notch defenses in
Calgary and Dallas. The Caps had enough
to come back from two three-goal deficits to force extra time, but not nearly
enough against Dallas to add to the lone goal they scored less than five
minutes into their last game of the week.
The Caps did not lack for shots on the week, recording 97 in
all. Nine goals scored in those 97 shots
(9.3 percent) was below their shooting percentage for last season (10.8
percent). It does not sound like much. If the Caps had shot to last year’s shooting
percentage they would have scored one more goal, but here is the thing. Because of the way the week unfolded, one
more goal could have meant one more standings point, perhaps two. One more goal against Chicago before the
empty netter? It could have forced an
overtime or a shootout with a different result.
One more goal against Calgary in regulation (fortunate to win in the
Gimmick, eh?)? One more goal against
Dallas to tie the game, perhaps on that last flurry in front of the Stars’ net? Again, perhaps with a different result in
extra time. A thin margin between a
decent week (perhaps 1-1-1, or even 2-1-0), and a losing week.
Defense: 4.00/game (season: 4.00 / rank: T-26th)
What’s with the slow starts on the defensive side of the
ledger? Last year the Caps allowed 14
goals in their first three games, 10 in the year before that, 11 in 2009-2010,
ten in 2008-2009. It has been a persistent
theme in recent years. Caps fans might
look to goaltending (and we will get to that), but there is concern elsewhere –
the blue line. Looking at non-empty net goals
scored against at even strength, by pairing it goes like this:
Alzner/Green: 3
Hillen-Oleksy/Carrick: 2
Erskine/Carlson: 1
Erskine/Green: 1
Erskine/Carrick: 1
Erskine/Oleksy: 1
The problem you might have been expecting to be revealed
was. John Erskine was on ice for four ES
goals against with four different partners.
On the one hand, that speaks to lack of continuity, there being four
different partners. On the other hand, he was
the common element. And, there is that
third pair problem with the Jack Hillen-Steve Oleksy/Connor Carrick pair being on
ice for two goals in three games. The
concern, though, is Karl Alzner and Mike Green being on ice as a pair for a
third of the non-empty net/even strength goals-against for the week. That’s a goal against a game. Last year Alzner averaged 0.75 goals
against/game at 5-on-5, Green averaged 0.77 goals against at 5-on-5. If that pair is on for one fewer goal against
this past week, it could have been another standings point. Thin margins.
Goaltending: 3.61 GAA / .883 save percentage (season: 3.61 / .883)
This week was a case of the good (Michal Neuvirth), the bad
(Braden Holtby in one game and change), and optimism (Holtby in the third game
of the week). Let’s start with
Holtby. Here are three sets of numbers:
4.03, .882
5.04, .863
6.35, .822
Those happen to be Holtby’s goals against averages and save
percentages for the first two games of his 2011-2012, 2012-2013, and 2013-2014 NHL
seasons, respectively. He is a slow
starter, apparently. But then there is
this…
1.63, .938
That is his goals against and save percentage in his third
game over each of those seasons, including last night’s 19 saves on 21 shots
effort against Dallas. He seems to find
a way to work these things out. And the first thing that needs to be worked out is the first period -- a .786 save percentage for the week in the opening frame.
Then there is Michal Neuvirth. He relieved Holtby 16:22 into the
game against Calgary with the Flames having just scored to take a 3-0
lead. He stopped 27 of 28 shots he
faced, stopped the bleeding, and gave the Caps a chance to try to climb back
into the game. The Caps did, winning in
the trick shot competition, giving Neuvirth the win. It made Neuvirth 3-0-1, 1.83, .945 in his
last four appearances dating back to last season. It might not be the stuff of a goalie
controversy (Holtby was back in then net in the next game, against Dallas), but
it was a bright spot for the Caps in an otherwise iffy week.
Power Play: 6-12 / 50.0 percent (season: 50.0 percent / rank:
1st)
This was the other bright spot for the week. The Caps recorded power play goals in all
three games and looked positively terrifying in doing it. Six goals (first in the league) on 24 shots (third)
in just 13:01 of total power play time (15th). It was made even more frightening for
goaltenders to know that the Caps scored six power play goals in just 11:35 of
5-on-4 power play time. Ah, but there is
the key – 5-on-4 power play time. The
Caps also enjoyed 1:26 of 5-on-3 power play time late in the third period in
their game against Chicago and failed to score on four shots (seven attempts). It was the continuation of a level of
performance that had the Caps leading the league in 5-on-4 goals scored last
season (41) while scoring only one goal at 5-on-3 (only four teams failed to
score at 5-on-3).
Penalty Killing: 9-11 / 81.8 percent (season: 81.8 percent /
rank: T-15th)
An 81.8 percent kill rate is by no means bad (the Caps are
tied with the Los Angeles Kings at the moment, a team thought to be pretty good
on defense), but it is the how they got to that number that was a bit
unsettling. The power play goal allowed
to Chicago was a product of: a) unchallenged entry into the Capitals’ zone; b)
allowing Marian Hossa to walk down a lane between a flatfooted Martin Erat and
John Erskine, take a pass, and get the first shot on Braden Holtby; and c)
getting caught deep on the weak side defense to allow Brent Seabrook to step in
and bury the rebound. The other was a
product of Calgary’s Mikael Backlund being allowed to set up without adequate
challenge (Connor Carrick) in front of Braden Holtby, screening the goalie as
Jiri Hudler let fly with a slap shot that Holtby saw too late. Aggressiveness, or the lack of it, led to two
goals. Even though players are singled
out here, there was a lot of standing around to go around.
Even Strength Goals For/Goals Against (3-10 / season: 3-10;
5-on-5 GF/GA ratio rank: 27th)
The Caps did not win the battle at even strength in any of
the three games this week. They lost to
Chicago, 5-1. They lost to Calgary,
3-2. They lost to Dallas, 2-0. That is a trend that has to be changed,
pronto. Part of it is that the Caps were
outshot overall at evens, 79-69, for the week.
Forwards were outshot by a 59-43 margin.
It might infuriate some Caps fans to know that Martin Erat, relegated to
fourth line duty, recorded one shot at even strength for the week. The other three left wings – Marcus Johansson,
Brooks Laich, and Jason Chimera – combined for six (Laich had four of them).
If the offensive side of the ledger was bad, the defensive
side was worse. Ten goals in three
games, a 3.33 goals against average. There are only ten teams than have a worse
total goals against average (including power play and shorthanded goals
allowed) after Week 1.
Faceoffs: 102-for-187 / 54.6 percent (season: 58.7 percent /
rank: T-4th)
The Capitals had a good week in the circle, and they had an
especially good one in the ends – 59.7 percent wins in the offensive end, 64.2
percent in the defensive end. Of the ten
Caps taking at least one draw, nine of them finished at 50 percent or better
(only Nicklas Backstrom – 45.4 percent – was under the line). The real surprise
here is Eric Fehr. The converted right
winger was 21-for-32 (65.6 percent), placing him sixth in the league in winning
percentage. He was a beast in the ends,
going 5-for-7 (71.4 percent) in the offensive end, 7-for-10 (70.0 percent) in
the defensive end. Who knew?
Goals by period:
Two goals for, six goals against in the first period. That’s a hard way to start games. The Caps did not win a first period in any of
their three games, going to the locker room after 20 minutes down 2-1 to
Chicago, down 3-0 to Calgary, and tied at a goal apiece with Dallas. It has not been an especially noteworthy case
of giving up early goals – three were scored in the first ten minutes of the
period, three in the last ten minutes.
And, there are neither any first minute, nor last minute goals scored
among the six. It is seems to have been
a persistent step-behind to open games.
The silver lining here is that only one of those six goals came in the
last game of the week, but after Week 1, the Caps still have allowed the most
first period goals in the league.
In the end…
It is easy to make too much of this week. It was not a good one. It is not the end of the world. Only Toronto has scored more goals in the Eastern
Conference than the Caps; no team in the Metropolitan Division has. On the other hand, no team in the Eastern
Conference has allowed more goals than the Caps (games played to date certainly
influence those results). The Caps have
played only Western Conference teams to date.
They will play only one Eastern Conference team in the two games to come
this week. Still, with four days off
(and three days of practice) to come before the Caps lock horns with Carolina
on Thursday, there is no lack of things they can work on. So for you Caps fans...
That was the week that was. It's over, let it go...
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